I expect the Tory/Reform vote to stay split, and not lead to a May 2019 style collapse in favour of the latter, because that was about Getting Brexit Done whereas this is a values split in the centre-right coalition for a GE. And I think Reform has a ceiling on that.
I'm certainly not voting Reform. I'm a fairly right-wing Conservative, but I am still a Conservative and I don't particularly like them or their brand of politics. The dogwhistling over Rishi leaving D-Day early because "he doesn't understand our culture" being just one aspect.
You may not be an average Tory voter though. You've voting Tory over (amongst other things I'm sure) school fees. But most Tory voters aren't you.
In another tribute to the Lib Dem surge Labour promises to fix a million potholes a year. Presumably starting in Blackburn, Lancashire whose holes have been notorious since the 1960s.
I remember the excitement when we got our first video recorder . Sunak grew up in a different generation . His comments are hardly controversial , when you’re a kid you view things from your own peer group . The issue is the comments will grate with those much older.
I have some sympathy with that view. But also, he's 44. He would have been what, about 12 when Sky launched? Now yes, that's the peak of when you notice not having something. But also surely in 1991 not having Sky was almost ubiquitous?
Also arguably in the 90s not having satellite often meant you were a bit posher.
definitely agree with that - the whole satellite dish created huge discussions about class/status (remember the squarial). Satellite TV (and sky ) was sneered at by many in the v late 1980s.
The major drivers in the early years of Sky were Football and MTV, and also migrant communities wanting programmes from home. It wasn't a posh thing.
Those dishes were the ugliest things ever invented, for peasants only. PS: Why the F**k did they migrate if they wanted TV from Home, barking.
Maybe they weren't planning on watching TV 24 hours a day? When my grandparents retired to Mallorca they watched British TV via Sky but I think they were still happy to be able to swim in their pool, eat lunch on the terrace, and drink gallons of inexpensive Spanish wine!
Interesting poll being reported in the BBC about the precipitous collapse in trust for all politicians in the UK.
The precipitating factor is probably Brexit. 70% now say that it has made things worse.
How could it be anything else ?
Not the lies that led to Iraq war, or the collapse of confidence from the GFC, of the Post Office scandal .......
To quote from the BBC article:
"The report suggests disillusionment over Brexit among leave voters is one of the main reasons for the collapse in trust."
It seems that its only on PB Leavers still believe in Brexit.
I don't think your third para follows from your second. I'd say the process has been:
Electorate: Why aren't you doing what we want? Political class: EU won't let us. Electorate: OK, let's leave the EU then. Now will you do what we want? Political class: No.
You can see why distrust grows.
Half the political class pointed out "EU won't let us" was a gross simplification at best. Half the electorate didn't want to hear it.
In another tribute to the Lib Dem surge Labour promises to fix a million potholes a year. Presumably starting in Blackburn, Lancashire whose holes have been notorious since the 1960s.
Based on GDP figures Reeves is demanding change, but at the same time she's sticking like a limpet to to Hunts economic plans.
Pledging a handbrake turn might frighten the horses. Far better to tell folk that you will continue until you get to an appropriate place to execute a turn in the road. It’s political caution, you can argue over whether that’s correct but clearly Labour believe it is beneficial to them.
Interesting poll being reported in the BBC about the precipitous collapse in trust for all politicians in the UK.
The precipitating factor is probably Brexit. 70% now say that it has made things worse.
How could it be anything else ?
Not the lies that led to Iraq war, or the collapse of confidence from the GFC, of the Post Office scandal .......
To quote from the BBC article:
"The report suggests disillusionment over Brexit among leave voters is one of the main reasons for the collapse in trust."
It seems that its only on PB Leavers still believe in Brexit.
I don't think your third para follows from your second. I'd say the process has been:
Electorate: Why aren't you doing what we want? Political class: EU won't let us. Electorate: OK, let's leave the EU then. Now will you do what we want? Political class: No.
You can see why distrust grows.
Though when you say "political class", what you really mean is "Conservative Party".
£4800 on your mortgage seems a bit of a stretch. I don't see another substantial increase in interest rates any time soon. They are, if anything, edging down in the gilt markets.
But I don't think that the Tory manifesto promises were even close to true. They are not touching the tax increases they have already built in and there are clearly more to come. As there are with Labour, of course. At least the Lib Dems admit some of it, even if it is not enough for what they promise.
The clip doesn't show the workings, but £4800 is £100 a month for four years. That's not that much on rates rising, or falling more slowly than otherwise.
I'm not sure that's a good mathematical convention, but it's the Conservatives' preferred one, so hey ho.
Oh right. Well, it is possible that higher borrowing will drive interest rates up by enough for that. Our 10 year gilts are already a full percent higher than most of Europe's, mainly because we are less good at controlling inflation (cheers, BoE, a cracking job you did there. Again.)
Political arithmetic by all the parties is not much more than fantasy these days. Hasn't ever really recovered from Brown and his multiple reannouncements of the same spending and the grossing up of multiple years payments. If anything its getting worse. No wonder people just switch off.
My impression is that Europe has been (slightly) better on the whole at keeping energy prices lower. I don't think this is down to interest rates, so I don't think BOE rate rises or not rate rises have had the biggest impact.
In Europe they chose to make the companies keep rates down rather than funnelling billions of public money to their chums and sticking the bill on the public like the Tories did .
You mean the state owned companies put on a ton of debt to pay for this. Which is ultimately government debt. TANSTAAFL.
I remember the excitement when we got our first video recorder . Sunak grew up in a different generation . His comments are hardly controversial , when you’re a kid you view things from your own peer group . The issue is the comments will grate with those much older.
I have some sympathy with that view. But also, he's 44. He would have been what, about 12 when Sky launched? Now yes, that's the peak of when you notice not having something. But also surely in 1991 not having Sky was almost ubiquitous?
Also arguably in the 90s not having satellite often meant you were a bit posher.
definitely agree with that - the whole satellite dish created huge discussions about class/status (remember the squarial). Satellite TV (and sky ) was sneered at by many in the v late 1980s.
The major drivers in the early years of Sky were Football and MTV, and also migrant communities wanting programmes from home. It wasn't a posh thing.
Those dishes were the ugliest things ever invented, for peasants only. PS: Why the F**k did they migrate if they wanted TV from Home, barking.
Same reason that @Leon spends most of his time on his holibobs trolling on PB and scouring the less salubrious parts of MAGA twitter.
Interesting poll being reported in the BBC about the precipitous collapse in trust for all politicians in the UK.
The precipitating factor is probably Brexit. 70% now say that it has made things worse.
How could it be anything else ?
Not the lies that led to Iraq war, or the collapse of confidence from the GFC, of the Post Office scandal .......
To quote from the BBC article:
"The report suggests disillusionment over Brexit among leave voters is one of the main reasons for the collapse in trust."
It seems that its only on PB Leavers still believe in Brexit.
I don't think your third para follows from your second. I'd say the process has been:
Electorate: Why aren't you doing what we want? Political class: EU won't let us. Electorate: OK, let's leave the EU then. Now will you do what we want? Political class: No.
You can see why distrust grows.
A big part of the problem is the electorate don't know what they want. Or rather they want something (less immigration) but don't want the consequences of it (university sector collapses, chronic labour shortages across the economy, higher pension ages). The job of politicians is to frame the choice set so it aligns with what is feasible, but the political class as a whole has failed in this task, with populist charlatans like Johnson and Farage limiting the space for more honest politicians to speak on the level. And so the cycle of lies, cynicism, extremism and bad choices accelerates.
With this election being a shoo in for Labour, the campaign period is becoming rather boring.
Thanks goodness Rishi went early otherwise the Conservatives might have been wiped out.
If Rishi had gone early, the Party could have replaced him and avoided a wipe out.
Two things that are probably both true:
1 Sunak is a bad PM and worse party leader.
2 Sunak is still the best available Conservative PM and party leader right now.
I don't for a second believe 2.
And if it is the case that there isn't a single MP on the Tory benches who could do a better job than Sunak, then they don't deserve to return even a single MP on 4 July.
I'm sure there are some Tory MPs who would have done a better job than Sunak, but I think the chances of the Tories choosing one of them in a leadership election to replace Sunak are low.
That said, the election campaign has been bad enough that, with hindsight, I've changed my mind and now think it would have been worth a try.
Has anyone made a full list of the likely senior survivors, should the Tories be reduced to 60, 70, 80 seats? There can't be many. I'm thinking they're likely to include Sunak, Truss, Badenoch, Braverman and Patel, though under present circumstances nobody seems completely safe. Sunak, of course, will be persona non grata and you would've thought that even the Conservative Party wouldn't be mental enough to put Truss back into bat, but who knows? If they're still the second party you can see her back in the Shadow Cabinet: there wouldn't exactly be a plethora of talent to choose from under such a scenario.
Regardless, whichever selection makes it to the membership, you have to assume they'll pick the most right wing option.
Interesting poll being reported in the BBC about the precipitous collapse in trust for all politicians in the UK.
The precipitating factor is probably Brexit. 70% now say that it has made things worse.
How could it be anything else ?
Not the lies that led to Iraq war, or the collapse of confidence from the GFC, of the Post Office scandal .......
To quote from the BBC article:
"The report suggests disillusionment over Brexit among leave voters is one of the main reasons for the collapse in trust."
It seems that its only on PB Leavers still believe in Brexit.
I don't think your third para follows from your second. I'd say the process has been:
Electorate: Why aren't you doing what we want? Political class: EU won't let us. Electorate: OK, let's leave the EU then. Now will you do what we want? Political class: No.
You can see why distrust grows.
A big part of the problem is the electorate don't know what they want. Or rather they want something (less immigration) but don't want the consequences of it (university sector collapses, chronic labour shortages across the economy, higher pension ages). The job of politicians is to frame the choice set so it aligns with what is feasible, but the political class as a whole has failed in this task, with populist charlatans like Johnson and Farage limiting the space for more honest politicians to speak on the level. And so the cycle of lies, cynicism, extremism and bad choices accelerates.
That is the intrinsic problem of Populism, and why it fails, whether left or right in origin.
Simple answers to complex problems are nearly always wrong.
Starmer’s genie still seems to be doling out the wishes.
- Stagnant economic stats this morning, but probably temporary due to wet April and ready to bounce back - Car crash interview with Sunak - Awful early summer weather, but - Consistent model runs showing it gets better and potentially warm and sunny just in time for the start of July
Based on GDP figures Reeves is demanding change, but at the same time she's sticking like a limpet to to Hunts economic plans.
Pledging a handbrake turn might frighten the horses. Far better to tell folk that you will continue until you get to an appropriate place to execute a turn in the road. It’s political caution, you can argue over whether that’s correct but clearly Labour believe it is beneficial to them.
Or it's just plain taking the voters for mugs.
If Reeves is going to end austerity as promised, large tax hikes will be essential. The insistence that economic growth will ride to the rescue and solve all our problems is obvious rubbish.
If she's also serious about freezing income tax, NI and VAT rates, then we have to look for the remaining wriggle room in the Labour manifesto. Anything that isn't explicitly ruled out will be on the table. An absence of pledges on issues like CGT and council tax reform/bands will be instructive.
Of course, it is entirely possible that Labour is doing nothing but spinning a yarn to get elected, and that the manifesto will go into the shredder the nanosecond that the grey vote has been successfully conned into abandoning the Tories. The "we studied the books, they're even worse than we thought, panic panic, emergency budget, blame the Tories" narrative pretty much writes itself.
In short, God only knows what we're going to get after the need to placate the voters has been dispensed with. You have to go into this election assuming you're being fed a load of lies, and just decide which lot are the least nasty and incompetent liars. On that score, Lab beats Con hands down.
Phone poll out NEW Survation Telephone Tracker Series for @GMB - Poll 1/4. Full Constituency Ballot Prompt:
CON 23% LAB - 41% LD- 10% REF - 12% GRE - 6% SNP - 3% Others - 4%
f/w 5-11 June, 60% of f/w conducted 10-11 June.
Different methodology, similar results. Not sure how they get to people by phone these days let alone a representative sample, but there we have it.
57 vs 35 for the blocs. “Other” and SNP doing relatively well.
I believe they use both mobile phones and landlines to get the sample, which is of course necessary given many people (myself included) have never a landline since leaving home.
I remember the excitement when we got our first video recorder . Sunak grew up in a different generation . His comments are hardly controversial , when you’re a kid you view things from your own peer group . The issue is the comments will grate with those much older.
I have some sympathy with that view. But also, he's 44. He would have been what, about 12 when Sky launched? Now yes, that's the peak of when you notice not having something. But also surely in 1991 not having Sky was almost ubiquitous?
Also arguably in the 90s not having satellite often meant you were a bit posher.
definitely agree with that - the whole satellite dish created huge discussions about class/status (remember the squarial). Satellite TV (and sky ) was sneered at by many in the v late 1980s.
The major drivers in the early years of Sky were Football and MTV, and also migrant communities wanting programmes from home. It wasn't a posh thing.
Those dishes were the ugliest things ever invented, for peasants only. PS: Why the F**k did they migrate if they wanted TV from Home, barking.
Same reason that @Leon spends most of his time on his holibobs trolling on PB and scouring the less salubrious parts of MAGA twitter.
“Holibobs”? I’m in Odessa
Odessa last night:
“Odesa under attack now Loud explosion woke me up Hopefully Ukr troops protect this beautiful city”
“They were mass-attacking Ukraine with Shaheds and then missiles well into the early morning. Once it was all-clear everywhere else, #Odesa got hit by an Iskander-M (5 a.m).
6:15 - and here comes another alert for the entire country because Mig-31 has just taken off…”
Interesting poll being reported in the BBC about the precipitous collapse in trust for all politicians in the UK.
The precipitating factor is probably Brexit. 70% now say that it has made things worse.
But Brexit happened because of underlying distrust. Brexit is a symptom not a cause.
The UK was sold a proposition half the population knew was a dud from the off and the other half would discover it to be a dud. Brexit really wasn't a smart thing to do.
The other way to read this answer is that if every family works hard and sacrifices luxuries they can send their kids to Winchester.
And if they don’t, they’re not making their children‘s education “a priority”.
I'm prepared to believe that Rishi was being sincere there, and it's part of his adult mindset.
It's fair to say that the Sunaks did bust a gut to send Rishi to Winchester. Probably they weren't financially wise to do that, but it was their money.
But little Rishi probably did feel poor- his family had zero spare cash and his schoolmates did. (To return to a point I've made before, private schools are only for richest few percent, not GPs and pharmacists.)
I remember the excitement when we got our first video recorder . Sunak grew up in a different generation . His comments are hardly controversial , when you’re a kid you view things from your own peer group . The issue is the comments will grate with those much older.
I have some sympathy with that view. But also, he's 44. He would have been what, about 12 when Sky launched? Now yes, that's the peak of when you notice not having something. But also surely in 1991 not having Sky was almost ubiquitous?
Also arguably in the 90s not having satellite often meant you were a bit posher.
definitely agree with that - the whole satellite dish created huge discussions about class/status (remember the squarial). Satellite TV (and sky ) was sneered at by many in the v late 1980s.
The major drivers in the early years of Sky were Football and MTV, and also migrant communities wanting programmes from home. It wasn't a posh thing.
Those dishes were the ugliest things ever invented, for peasants only. PS: Why the F**k did they migrate if they wanted TV from Home, barking.
Same reason that @Leon spends most of his time on his holibobs trolling on PB and scouring the less salubrious parts of MAGA twitter.
+1
He exaggerates everything to draw attention to himself. The ultimate narcissist, like his latest pin-ups: Trump, Putin, Truss, and Farage
With this election being a shoo in for Labour, the campaign period is becoming rather boring.
Thanks goodness Rishi went early otherwise the Conservatives might have been wiped out.
If Rishi had gone early, the Party could have replaced him and avoided a wipe out.
Two things that are probably both true:
1 Sunak is a bad PM and worse party leader.
2 Sunak is still the best available Conservative PM and party leader right now.
I don't for a second believe 2.
And if it is the case that there isn't a single MP on the Tory benches who could do a better job than Sunak, then they don't deserve to return even a single MP on 4 July.
I'm sure there are some Tory MPs who would have done a better job than Sunak, but I think the chances of the Tories choosing one of them in a leadership election to replace Sunak are low.
That said, the election campaign has been bad enough that, with hindsight, I've changed my mind and now think it would have been worth a try.
Has anyone made a full list of the likely senior survivors, should the Tories be reduced to 60, 70, 80 seats? There can't be many. I'm thinking they're likely to include Sunak, Truss, Badenoch, Braverman and Patel, though under present circumstances nobody seems completely safe. Sunak, of course, will be persona non grata and you would've thought that even the Conservative Party wouldn't be mental enough to put Truss back into bat, but who knows? If they're still the second party you can see her back in the Shadow Cabinet: there wouldn't exactly be a plethora of talent to choose from under such a scenario.
Regardless, whichever selection makes it to the membership, you have to assume they'll pick the most right wing option.
The Tories could do worse for next leader than Alicia Kearns in Rutland and Stamford amongst the survivors of a near Canada event. Not my cup of tea, but not an idiot, and sensible enough to not follow a out-Farage Farage strategy.
Starmer’s genie still seems to be doling out the wishes.
- Stagnant economic stats this morning, but probably temporary due to wet April and ready to bounce back - Car crash interview with Sunak - Awful early summer weather, but - Consistent model runs showing it gets better and potentially warm and sunny just in time for the start of July
IT’S NOT GONNA GET BETTER STOP LONDON IS NOW ANCHORAGE STOP
Interesting poll being reported in the BBC about the precipitous collapse in trust for all politicians in the UK.
The precipitating factor is probably Brexit. 70% now say that it has made things worse.
But Brexit happened because of underlying distrust. Brexit is a symptom not a cause.
More of a cause. It was sold by politicians as a solution to various problems, and has failed to solve any of them. The biggest recent decline in political trust has been amongst those who voted leave.
Starmer’s genie still seems to be doling out the wishes.
- Stagnant economic stats this morning, but probably temporary due to wet April and ready to bounce back - Car crash interview with Sunak - Awful early summer weather, but - Consistent model runs showing it gets better and potentially warm and sunny just in time for the start of July
IT’S NOT GONNA GET BETTER STOP LONDON IS NOW ANCHORAGE STOP
Starmer’s genie still seems to be doling out the wishes.
- Stagnant economic stats this morning, but probably temporary due to wet April and ready to bounce back - Car crash interview with Sunak - Awful early summer weather, but - Consistent model runs showing it gets better and potentially warm and sunny just in time for the start of July
He's certainly being blessed by lady luck. However she can be fickle and leave on a whim. Only one politician has ever enjoyed her company the whole way through his career and that's Blair.
With this election being a shoo in for Labour, the campaign period is becoming rather boring.
Thanks goodness Rishi went early otherwise the Conservatives might have been wiped out.
If Rishi had gone early, the Party could have replaced him and avoided a wipe out.
Two things that are probably both true:
1 Sunak is a bad PM and worse party leader.
2 Sunak is still the best available Conservative PM and party leader right now.
I don't for a second believe 2.
And if it is the case that there isn't a single MP on the Tory benches who could do a better job than Sunak, then they don't deserve to return even a single MP on 4 July.
In the second 2022 election, the alternatives were Johnson and Mordaunt. Since one was utterly discredited and the other a political lightweight who hadn't carried a sword well yet, Sunak was the only good choice. The party wouldn't accept Hunt for a nanosecond.
As for your final point, you may well be right. The polls don't have to shift far from where they are to make it so.
That the Party didn't/wouldn't choose someone else doesn't make him the best available option.
Labour didn't replace Corbyn in 2019, that didn't make him the best available leader.
The Tories made a mistake choosing Sunak as leader. Actions have consequences and many MPs will be getting their P45 as a result of that mistake.
With this election being a shoo in for Labour, the campaign period is becoming rather boring.
Thanks goodness Rishi went early otherwise the Conservatives might have been wiped out.
If Rishi had gone early, the Party could have replaced him and avoided a wipe out.
Two things that are probably both true:
1 Sunak is a bad PM and worse party leader.
2 Sunak is still the best available Conservative PM and party leader right now.
I don't for a second believe 2.
And if it is the case that there isn't a single MP on the Tory benches who could do a better job than Sunak, then they don't deserve to return even a single MP on 4 July.
I'm sure there are some Tory MPs who would have done a better job than Sunak, but I think the chances of the Tories choosing one of them in a leadership election to replace Sunak are low.
That said, the election campaign has been bad enough that, with hindsight, I've changed my mind and now think it would have been worth a try.
Has anyone made a full list of the likely senior survivors, should the Tories be reduced to 60, 70, 80 seats? There can't be many. I'm thinking they're likely to include Sunak, Truss, Badenoch, Braverman and Patel, though under present circumstances nobody seems completely safe. Sunak, of course, will be persona non grata and you would've thought that even the Conservative Party wouldn't be mental enough to put Truss back into bat, but who knows? If they're still the second party you can see her back in the Shadow Cabinet: there wouldn't exactly be a plethora of talent to choose from under such a scenario.
Regardless, whichever selection makes it to the membership, you have to assume they'll pick the most right wing option.
That's moderately helpful, thank you. Seems like other potential survivors who could line up for the Tory leadership race include Victoria Atkins, Steve Barclay and Gavin Williamson, perhaps with Mark Francois moving up on the outside rail?
Starmer’s genie still seems to be doling out the wishes.
- Stagnant economic stats this morning, but probably temporary due to wet April and ready to bounce back - Car crash interview with Sunak - Awful early summer weather, but - Consistent model runs showing it gets better and potentially warm and sunny just in time for the start of July
He's certainly being blessed by lady luck. However she can be fickle and leave on a whim. Only one politician has ever enjoyed her company the whole way through his career and that's Blair.
The only way to win at politics is to quit while you are ahead, and very few manage that.
In Starmer's case, that might happen if he retires at 65. A term and a bit then leave to to muttered "he was sort of OK"s from the public.
Starmer’s genie still seems to be doling out the wishes.
- Stagnant economic stats this morning, but probably temporary due to wet April and ready to bounce back - Car crash interview with Sunak - Awful early summer weather, but - Consistent model runs showing it gets better and potentially warm and sunny just in time for the start of July
IT’S NOT GONNA GET BETTER STOP LONDON IS NOW ANCHORAGE STOP
Do piss off Sean and get a life
I'm not this Sean character. He wouldn't have the BALLS OF HARDENED STEEL to come to Ukraine
With this election being a shoo in for Labour, the campaign period is becoming rather boring.
Thanks goodness Rishi went early otherwise the Conservatives might have been wiped out.
If Rishi had gone early, the Party could have replaced him and avoided a wipe out.
Two things that are probably both true:
1 Sunak is a bad PM and worse party leader.
2 Sunak is still the best available Conservative PM and party leader right now.
I don't for a second believe 2.
And if it is the case that there isn't a single MP on the Tory benches who could do a better job than Sunak, then they don't deserve to return even a single MP on 4 July.
I'm sure there are some Tory MPs who would have done a better job than Sunak, but I think the chances of the Tories choosing one of them in a leadership election to replace Sunak are low.
That said, the election campaign has been bad enough that, with hindsight, I've changed my mind and now think it would have been worth a try.
Has anyone made a full list of the likely senior survivors, should the Tories be reduced to 60, 70, 80 seats? There can't be many. I'm thinking they're likely to include Sunak, Truss, Badenoch, Braverman and Patel, though under present circumstances nobody seems completely safe. Sunak, of course, will be persona non grata and you would've thought that even the Conservative Party wouldn't be mental enough to put Truss back into bat, but who knows? If they're still the second party you can see her back in the Shadow Cabinet: there wouldn't exactly be a plethora of talent to choose from under such a scenario.
Regardless, whichever selection makes it to the membership, you have to assume they'll pick the most right wing option.
The Tories could do worse for next leader than Alicia Kearns in Rutland and Stamford amongst the survivors of a near Canada event. Not my cup of tea, but not an idiot, and sensible enough to not follow a out-Farage Farage strategy.
The Tory membership doesn't do sensible. They'll pick Suella.
I remember the excitement when we got our first video recorder . Sunak grew up in a different generation . His comments are hardly controversial , when you’re a kid you view things from your own peer group . The issue is the comments will grate with those much older.
I have some sympathy with that view. But also, he's 44. He would have been what, about 12 when Sky launched? Now yes, that's the peak of when you notice not having something. But also surely in 1991 not having Sky was almost ubiquitous?
Also arguably in the 90s not having satellite often meant you were a bit posher.
definitely agree with that - the whole satellite dish created huge discussions about class/status (remember the squarial). Satellite TV (and sky ) was sneered at by many in the v late 1980s.
The major drivers in the early years of Sky were Football and MTV, and also migrant communities wanting programmes from home. It wasn't a posh thing.
Those dishes were the ugliest things ever invented, for peasants only. PS: Why the F**k did they migrate if they wanted TV from Home, barking.
Same reason that @Leon spends most of his time on his holibobs trolling on PB and scouring the less salubrious parts of MAGA twitter.
“Holibobs”? I’m in Odessa
Odessa last night:
“Odesa under attack now Loud explosion woke me up Hopefully Ukr troops protect this beautiful city”
“They were mass-attacking Ukraine with Shaheds and then missiles well into the early morning. Once it was all-clear everywhere else, #Odesa got hit by an Iskander-M (5 a.m).
6:15 - and here comes another alert for the entire country because Mig-31 has just taken off…”
I remember the excitement when we got our first video recorder . Sunak grew up in a different generation . His comments are hardly controversial , when you’re a kid you view things from your own peer group . The issue is the comments will grate with those much older.
I have some sympathy with that view. But also, he's 44. He would have been what, about 12 when Sky launched? Now yes, that's the peak of when you notice not having something. But also surely in 1991 not having Sky was almost ubiquitous?
Also arguably in the 90s not having satellite often meant you were a bit posher.
definitely agree with that - the whole satellite dish created huge discussions about class/status (remember the squarial). Satellite TV (and sky ) was sneered at by many in the v late 1980s.
The major drivers in the early years of Sky were Football and MTV, and also migrant communities wanting programmes from home. It wasn't a posh thing.
Those dishes were the ugliest things ever invented, for peasants only. PS: Why the F**k did they migrate if they wanted TV from Home, barking.
Maybe they weren't planning on watching TV 24 hours a day? When my grandparents retired to Mallorca they watched British TV via Sky but I think they were still happy to be able to swim in their pool, eat lunch on the terrace, and drink gallons of inexpensive Spanish wine!
Not much hope of migrants enjoying that lifestyle in UK unless they are from North Pole
The other way to read this answer is that if every family works hard and sacrifices luxuries they can send their kids to Winchester.
And if they don’t, they’re not making their children‘s education “a priority”.
I'm prepared to believe that Rishi was being sincere there, and it's part of his adult mindset.
It's fair to say that the Sunaks did bust a gut to send Rishi to Winchester. Probably they weren't financially wise to do that, but it was their money.
But little Rishi probably did feel poor- his family had zero spare cash and his schoolmates did. (To return to a point I've made before, private schools are only for richest few percent, not GPs and pharmacists.)
Still a terrible answer, though, however sincere.
He si totally tin eared and out of touch with teh real world, not very bright in any real sense.
Starmer’s genie still seems to be doling out the wishes.
- Stagnant economic stats this morning, but probably temporary due to wet April and ready to bounce back - Car crash interview with Sunak - Awful early summer weather, but - Consistent model runs showing it gets better and potentially warm and sunny just in time for the start of July
IT’S NOT GONNA GET BETTER STOP LONDON IS NOW ANCHORAGE STOP
Do piss off Sean and get a life
You are a nasty piece of work , no need to be giving out names whether well known or not.
Back to D-day-ITV interview-gate again, which I know we've done to death but still baffles me. Surely D-day memorials have been planned in for ages? Since long before the election? Why didn't he just schedule his ITV meeting around his existing commitments? For pretty much all of the campaign period he's almost totally in charge of his diary, apart from that slot. It was clearly a choice to leave early to do an iTV interview which he thought would be a net positive. Like his choice of choosing Manchester as his location to announce the cancellation of HS2 to Manchester. It wasn't something he was forced into, it's something he thought would make him look good. He may or may not be the worst PM since Brown, but he's certainly the strangest. And at least Brown knew straight away that bigoted-woman gate sounded bad. Rishi gives every impression of having genuinely no idea what does or doesn't show him in a good light. Doubly strange given the clearly highly curated but quite slick image of himself he portrayed while at the Treasury. The only plausible explanation I have is that someone pretty good in charge of his image has been replaced by someone either astonishingly terrible or actively malign.
This is my problem with the whole thing too. Away from the politics of it all. Nobody seems to have addressed the key question: why did he do it? It’s utterly bizarre. Baffling.
Starmer’s genie still seems to be doling out the wishes.
- Stagnant economic stats this morning, but probably temporary due to wet April and ready to bounce back - Car crash interview with Sunak - Awful early summer weather, but - Consistent model runs showing it gets better and potentially warm and sunny just in time for the start of July
IT’S NOT GONNA GET BETTER STOP LONDON IS NOW ANCHORAGE STOP
Do piss off Sean and get a life
I'm not this Sean character. He wouldn't have the BALLS OF HARDENED STEEL to come to Ukraine
I hope the Gods arn’t reading this 🫣 it would be obvious what bit of hot metal the next drone will latch onto.
Iran made drone, in the bread basket of a knapper 🫢
I expect the Tory/Reform vote to stay split, and not lead to a May 2019 style collapse in favour of the latter, because that was about Getting Brexit Done whereas this is a values split in the centre-right coalition for a GE. And I think Reform has a ceiling on that.
I'm certainly not voting Reform. I'm a fairly right-wing Conservative, but I am still a Conservative and I don't particularly like them or their brand of politics. The dogwhistling over Rishi leaving D-Day early because "he doesn't understand our culture" being just one aspect.
That was the lowest point of the campaign for me. Pretty sinister stuff.
With this election being a shoo in for Labour, the campaign period is becoming rather boring.
Thanks goodness Rishi went early otherwise the Conservatives might have been wiped out.
If Rishi had gone early, the Party could have replaced him and avoided a wipe out.
Two things that are probably both true:
1 Sunak is a bad PM and worse party leader.
2 Sunak is still the best available Conservative PM and party leader right now.
I don't for a second believe 2.
And if it is the case that there isn't a single MP on the Tory benches who could do a better job than Sunak, then they don't deserve to return even a single MP on 4 July.
I'm sure there are some Tory MPs who would have done a better job than Sunak, but I think the chances of the Tories choosing one of them in a leadership election to replace Sunak are low.
That said, the election campaign has been bad enough that, with hindsight, I've changed my mind and now think it would have been worth a try.
Has anyone made a full list of the likely senior survivors, should the Tories be reduced to 60, 70, 80 seats? There can't be many. I'm thinking they're likely to include Sunak, Truss, Badenoch, Braverman and Patel, though under present circumstances nobody seems completely safe. Sunak, of course, will be persona non grata and you would've thought that even the Conservative Party wouldn't be mental enough to put Truss back into bat, but who knows? If they're still the second party you can see her back in the Shadow Cabinet: there wouldn't exactly be a plethora of talent to choose from under such a scenario.
Regardless, whichever selection makes it to the membership, you have to assume they'll pick the most right wing option.
The Tories could do worse for next leader than Alicia Kearns in Rutland and Stamford amongst the survivors of a near Canada event. Not my cup of tea, but not an idiot, and sensible enough to not follow a out-Farage Farage strategy.
She would be seen as too woke to win a leadership election.
Doesn't sound very interesting interview. I am sure it will get the sneering on the tw@tters as "out of touch" for saying Sky is hardship of going without (which isn't quite what he says).
We didn't have Sky when growing up, I had to get my mates to record the footy on VHS for me.
Comments
Fair to say they didn't deliver, but also fair to say they were never going to
Edit - nah, that implies he had some.
@SkyNews
Sky's @KayBurley asks the Secretary of Defence if Rishi Sunak is 'tone deaf when it comes to D-Day'
'The part that he didn't attend had no British veterans at it at all and he has rightly issued his apology' says
@grantshapps
It was an ALLIED landing FFS
Jobs for their mates that's what it will be.
Though, while Labour have a Ming vase strategy, the Tories seem to have adopted a bull in a china shop strategy, so who knows.
Rishi Sunak had to “go without” Sky TV as a child because his parents were making sacrifices for his education, the prime minister has said
@mikeysmith
The other way to read this answer is that if every family works hard and sacrifices luxuries they can send their kids to Winchester.
And if they don’t, they’re not making their children‘s education “a priority”.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html
Simple answers to complex problems are nearly always wrong.
- Stagnant economic stats this morning, but probably temporary due to wet April and ready to bounce back
- Car crash interview with Sunak
- Awful early summer weather, but
- Consistent model runs showing it gets better and potentially warm and sunny just in time for the start of July
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clmmvnpr8n8o
If she's also serious about freezing income tax, NI and VAT rates, then we have to look for the remaining wriggle room in the Labour manifesto. Anything that isn't explicitly ruled out will be on the table. An absence of pledges on issues like CGT and council tax reform/bands will be instructive.
Of course, it is entirely possible that Labour is doing nothing but spinning a yarn to get elected, and that the manifesto will go into the shredder the nanosecond that the grey vote has been successfully conned into abandoning the Tories. The "we studied the books, they're even worse than we thought, panic panic, emergency budget, blame the Tories" narrative pretty much writes itself.
In short, God only knows what we're going to get after the need to placate the voters has been dispensed with. You have to go into this election assuming you're being fed a load of lies, and just decide which lot are the least nasty and incompetent liars. On that score, Lab beats Con hands down.
Odessa last night:
“Odesa under attack now
Loud explosion woke me up
Hopefully Ukr troops protect this beautiful city”
https://x.com/nyheternajohan/status/1800712200182694323?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg
“They were mass-attacking Ukraine with Shaheds and then missiles well into the early morning. Once it was all-clear everywhere else, #Odesa got hit by an Iskander-M (5 a.m).
6:15 - and here comes another alert for the entire country because Mig-31 has just taken off…”
https://x.com/oscdomesticated/status/1800731940032794944?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg
You are welcome to join me on my “holibobs”
Con 25%
LAB 39%
LD 14%
REF 13%
GRE 4% (remember they have NEVER polled above 3.8% in a GE)
SNP 2% (watch this one)
Others 3%
Which would give a Labour majority of c. 160
It's fair to say that the Sunaks did bust a gut to send Rishi to Winchester. Probably they weren't financially wise to do that, but it was their money.
But little Rishi probably did feel poor- his family had zero spare cash and his schoolmates did. (To return to a point I've made before, private schools are only for richest few percent, not GPs and pharmacists.)
Still a terrible answer, though, however sincere.
He exaggerates everything to draw attention to himself. The ultimate narcissist, like his latest pin-ups: Trump, Putin,
Truss, and FarageNEW THREAD
TV access as a child only became ubiquitous from Gen X onwards.
It was sold by politicians as a solution to various problems, and has failed to solve any of them.
The biggest recent decline in political trust has been amongst those who voted leave.
Labour didn't replace Corbyn in 2019, that didn't make him the best available leader.
The Tories made a mistake choosing Sunak as leader. Actions have consequences and many MPs will be getting their P45 as a result of that mistake.
Truly an embarrassment of riches.
In Starmer's case, that might happen if he retires at 65. A term and a bit then leave to to muttered "he was sort of OK"s from the public.
A pointed reply from the man whom you thought destined to "save the West".
Iran made drone, in the bread basket of a knapper 🫢
I think I've found your problem.
I imagine that the Red Wall voters are as pissed off as anybody about Johnsons' Levelling-Up and Brexit lies.
Paradise.