Punters unmoved by YouGov showing Labour dropping into the 30s – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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Overlord ends Rishi's hopes of lording over us?Tweedledee said:
The D Day invasion force had to deal with a 24 hour overrun after Eisenhower's decision of 4 June, to put it in perspective.RochdalePioneers said:I had a dream last night that the Tories were on 10% in a poll.
How absurd I thought on waking up. Then I saw TwiX:
PM: Gosh! Hello! Sorry to have kept you
ITV: You've been in Normandy
PM: Yeah IT ALL JUST RAN OVER. It was incredible but IT JUST RAN OVER EVERYTHING
10% might be at the top end of their ambitions.
Edit - nah, that implies he had some.0 -
Called Lying I believe for normal people.Alanbrooke said:
Or it's just plain taking the voters for mugs.ToryJim said:
Pledging a handbrake turn might frighten the horses. Far better to tell folk that you will continue until you get to an appropriate place to execute a turn in the road. It’s political caution, you can argue over whether that’s correct but clearly Labour believe it is beneficial to them.Alanbrooke said:Could somebody explain
Based on GDP figures Reeves is demanding change, but at the same time she's sticking like a limpet to to Hunts economic plans.0 -
Is it possible they can make this any worse?
@SkyNews
Sky's @KayBurley asks the Secretary of Defence if Rishi Sunak is 'tone deaf when it comes to D-Day'
'The part that he didn't attend had no British veterans at it at all and he has rightly issued his apology' says
@grantshapps
It was an ALLIED landing FFS
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True malc. The Tories will deservedly get kicked out but new New Labour have no more a clue what to do then the Tories.malcolmg said:
You cannot explain bullshit Alan, they just lie till they get in, more jam tomorrow I promise you.Alanbrooke said:Could somebody explain
Based on GDP figures Reeves is demanding change, but at the same time she's sticking like a limpet to to Hunts economic plans.
Jobs for their mates that's what it will be.0 -
Presumably he meant the first ceremony he always intended to go to ran over. "Mustn't be disrespectful to the veterans by leaving early". [Ironically]williamglenn said:Rishi Sunak claims the D-Day commemorations which he left early "just ran over"
"It was incredible, but it just ran over. Apologies for keeping you"
https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1800668636606312481
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Though when you say "political class", what you really mean is "Conservative Party".Cookie said:
I don't think your third para follows from your second. I'd say the process has been:Foxy said:
To quote from the BBC article:Alanbrooke said:
How could it be anything else ?Nigelb said:Interesting poll being reported in the BBC about the precipitous collapse in trust for all politicians in the UK.
The precipitating factor is probably Brexit. 70% now say that it has made things worse.
Not the lies that led to Iraq war, or the collapse of confidence from the GFC, of the Post Office scandal .......
"The report suggests disillusionment over Brexit among leave voters is one of the main reasons for the collapse in trust."
It seems that its only on PB Leavers still believe in Brexit.
Electorate: Why aren't you doing what we want?
Political class: EU won't let us.
Electorate: OK, let's leave the EU then. Now will you do what we want?
Political class: No.
You can see why distrust grows.1 -
a
You mean the state owned companies put on a ton of debt to pay for this. Which is ultimately government debt. TANSTAAFL.malcolmg said:
In Europe they chose to make the companies keep rates down rather than funnelling billions of public money to their chums and sticking the bill on the public like the Tories did .Luckyguy1983 said:...
My impression is that Europe has been (slightly) better on the whole at keeping energy prices lower. I don't think this is down to interest rates, so I don't think BOE rate rises or not rate rises have had the biggest impact.DavidL said:
Oh right. Well, it is possible that higher borrowing will drive interest rates up by enough for that. Our 10 year gilts are already a full percent higher than most of Europe's, mainly because we are less good at controlling inflation (cheers, BoE, a cracking job you did there. Again.)Stuartinromford said:
The clip doesn't show the workings, but £4800 is £100 a month for four years. That's not that much on rates rising, or falling more slowly than otherwise.DavidL said:
£4800 on your mortgage seems a bit of a stretch. I don't see another substantial increase in interest rates any time soon. They are, if anything, edging down in the gilt markets.Taz said:Labour resorting to lying about the Tories plans.
https://x.com/skynews/status/1800547242257830050?s=61
But I don't think that the Tory manifesto promises were even close to true. They are not touching the tax increases they have already built in and there are clearly more to come. As there are with Labour, of course. At least the Lib Dems admit some of it, even if it is not enough for what they promise.
I'm not sure that's a good mathematical convention, but it's the Conservatives' preferred one, so hey ho.
Political arithmetic by all the parties is not much more than fantasy these days. Hasn't ever really recovered from Brown and his multiple reannouncements of the same spending and the grossing up of multiple years payments. If anything its getting worse. No wonder people just switch off.0 -
It's perhaps just my own bias, but that looks pretty much where we will end up.wooliedyed said:Phone poll out
NEW Survation Telephone Tracker Series for @GMB - Poll 1/4. Full Constituency Ballot Prompt:
CON 23%
LAB - 41%
LD- 10%
REF - 12%
GRE - 6%
SNP - 3%
Others - 4%
f/w 5-11 June, 60% of f/w conducted 10-11 June.
Though, while Labour have a Ming vase strategy, the Tories seem to have adopted a bull in a china shop strategy, so who knows.4 -
That is because he is billy no matesFoxy said:
Same reason that @Leon spends most of his time on his holibobs trolling on PB and scouring the less salubrious parts of MAGA twitter.malcolmg said:
Those dishes were the ugliest things ever invented, for peasants only.Foxy said:
The major drivers in the early years of Sky were Football and MTV, and also migrant communities wanting programmes from home. It wasn't a posh thing.swing_voter said:
definitely agree with that - the whole satellite dish created huge discussions about class/status (remember the squarial). Satellite TV (and sky ) was sneered at by many in the v late 1980s.Ghedebrav said:
Also arguably in the 90s not having satellite often meant you were a bit posher.Cookie said:
I have some sympathy with that view.nico679 said:I remember the excitement when we got our first video recorder . Sunak grew up in a different generation . His comments are hardly controversial , when you’re a kid you view things from your own peer group . The issue is the comments will grate with those much older.
But also, he's 44. He would have been what, about 12 when Sky launched? Now yes, that's the peak of when you notice not having something. But also surely in 1991 not having Sky was almost ubiquitous?
PS: Why the F**k did they migrate if they wanted TV from Home, barking.0 -
@thetimes
Rishi Sunak had to “go without” Sky TV as a child because his parents were making sacrifices for his education, the prime minister has said
@mikeysmith
The other way to read this answer is that if every family works hard and sacrifices luxuries they can send their kids to Winchester.
And if they don’t, they’re not making their children‘s education “a priority”.0 -
A big part of the problem is the electorate don't know what they want. Or rather they want something (less immigration) but don't want the consequences of it (university sector collapses, chronic labour shortages across the economy, higher pension ages). The job of politicians is to frame the choice set so it aligns with what is feasible, but the political class as a whole has failed in this task, with populist charlatans like Johnson and Farage limiting the space for more honest politicians to speak on the level. And so the cycle of lies, cynicism, extremism and bad choices accelerates.Cookie said:
I don't think your third para follows from your second. I'd say the process has been:Foxy said:
To quote from the BBC article:Alanbrooke said:
How could it be anything else ?Nigelb said:Interesting poll being reported in the BBC about the precipitous collapse in trust for all politicians in the UK.
The precipitating factor is probably Brexit. 70% now say that it has made things worse.
Not the lies that led to Iraq war, or the collapse of confidence from the GFC, of the Post Office scandal .......
"The report suggests disillusionment over Brexit among leave voters is one of the main reasons for the collapse in trust."
It seems that its only on PB Leavers still believe in Brexit.
Electorate: Why aren't you doing what we want?
Political class: EU won't let us.
Electorate: OK, let's leave the EU then. Now will you do what we want?
Political class: No.
You can see why distrust grows.7 -
Electoral Calculus Sorted Seat List is helpful:pigeon said:
Has anyone made a full list of the likely senior survivors, should the Tories be reduced to 60, 70, 80 seats? There can't be many. I'm thinking they're likely to include Sunak, Truss, Badenoch, Braverman and Patel, though under present circumstances nobody seems completely safe. Sunak, of course, will be persona non grata and you would've thought that even the Conservative Party wouldn't be mental enough to put Truss back into bat, but who knows? If they're still the second party you can see her back in the Shadow Cabinet: there wouldn't exactly be a plethora of talent to choose from under such a scenario.LostPassword said:
I'm sure there are some Tory MPs who would have done a better job than Sunak, but I think the chances of the Tories choosing one of them in a leadership election to replace Sunak are low.BartholomewRoberts said:
I don't for a second believe 2.Stuartinromford said:
Two things that are probably both true:BartholomewRoberts said:
If Rishi had gone early, the Party could have replaced him and avoided a wipe out.Casino_Royale said:
Thanks goodness Rishi went early otherwise the Conservatives might have been wiped out.Nunu5 said:With this election being a shoo in for Labour, the campaign period is becoming rather boring.
1 Sunak is a bad PM and worse party leader.
2 Sunak is still the best available Conservative PM and party leader right now.
And if it is the case that there isn't a single MP on the Tory benches who could do a better job than Sunak, then they don't deserve to return even a single MP on 4 July.
That said, the election campaign has been bad enough that, with hindsight, I've changed my mind and now think it would have been worth a try.
Regardless, whichever selection makes it to the membership, you have to assume they'll pick the most right wing option.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html
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That is the intrinsic problem of Populism, and why it fails, whether left or right in origin.OnlyLivingBoy said:
A big part of the problem is the electorate don't know what they want. Or rather they want something (less immigration) but don't want the consequences of it (university sector collapses, chronic labour shortages across the economy, higher pension ages). The job of politicians is to frame the choice set so it aligns with what is feasible, but the political class as a whole has failed in this task, with populist charlatans like Johnson and Farage limiting the space for more honest politicians to speak on the level. And so the cycle of lies, cynicism, extremism and bad choices accelerates.Cookie said:
I don't think your third para follows from your second. I'd say the process has been:Foxy said:
To quote from the BBC article:Alanbrooke said:
How could it be anything else ?Nigelb said:Interesting poll being reported in the BBC about the precipitous collapse in trust for all politicians in the UK.
The precipitating factor is probably Brexit. 70% now say that it has made things worse.
Not the lies that led to Iraq war, or the collapse of confidence from the GFC, of the Post Office scandal .......
"The report suggests disillusionment over Brexit among leave voters is one of the main reasons for the collapse in trust."
It seems that its only on PB Leavers still believe in Brexit.
Electorate: Why aren't you doing what we want?
Political class: EU won't let us.
Electorate: OK, let's leave the EU then. Now will you do what we want?
Political class: No.
You can see why distrust grows.
Simple answers to complex problems are nearly always wrong.4 -
Starmer’s genie still seems to be doling out the wishes.
- Stagnant economic stats this morning, but probably temporary due to wet April and ready to bounce back
- Car crash interview with Sunak
- Awful early summer weather, but
- Consistent model runs showing it gets better and potentially warm and sunny just in time for the start of July
1 -
0
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If Reeves is going to end austerity as promised, large tax hikes will be essential. The insistence that economic growth will ride to the rescue and solve all our problems is obvious rubbish.Alanbrooke said:
Or it's just plain taking the voters for mugs.ToryJim said:
Pledging a handbrake turn might frighten the horses. Far better to tell folk that you will continue until you get to an appropriate place to execute a turn in the road. It’s political caution, you can argue over whether that’s correct but clearly Labour believe it is beneficial to them.Alanbrooke said:Could somebody explain
Based on GDP figures Reeves is demanding change, but at the same time she's sticking like a limpet to to Hunts economic plans.
If she's also serious about freezing income tax, NI and VAT rates, then we have to look for the remaining wriggle room in the Labour manifesto. Anything that isn't explicitly ruled out will be on the table. An absence of pledges on issues like CGT and council tax reform/bands will be instructive.
Of course, it is entirely possible that Labour is doing nothing but spinning a yarn to get elected, and that the manifesto will go into the shredder the nanosecond that the grey vote has been successfully conned into abandoning the Tories. The "we studied the books, they're even worse than we thought, panic panic, emergency budget, blame the Tories" narrative pretty much writes itself.
In short, God only knows what we're going to get after the need to placate the voters has been dispensed with. You have to go into this election assuming you're being fed a load of lies, and just decide which lot are the least nasty and incompetent liars. On that score, Lab beats Con hands down.1 -
I believe they use both mobile phones and landlines to get the sample, which is of course necessary given many people (myself included) have never a landline since leaving home.TimS said:
Different methodology, similar results. Not sure how they get to people by phone these days let alone a representative sample, but there we have it.wooliedyed said:Phone poll out
NEW Survation Telephone Tracker Series for @GMB - Poll 1/4. Full Constituency Ballot Prompt:
CON 23%
LAB - 41%
LD- 10%
REF - 12%
GRE - 6%
SNP - 3%
Others - 4%
f/w 5-11 June, 60% of f/w conducted 10-11 June.
57 vs 35 for the blocs. “Other” and SNP doing relatively well.0 -
“Holibobs”? I’m in OdessaFoxy said:
Same reason that @Leon spends most of his time on his holibobs trolling on PB and scouring the less salubrious parts of MAGA twitter.malcolmg said:
Those dishes were the ugliest things ever invented, for peasants only.Foxy said:
The major drivers in the early years of Sky were Football and MTV, and also migrant communities wanting programmes from home. It wasn't a posh thing.swing_voter said:
definitely agree with that - the whole satellite dish created huge discussions about class/status (remember the squarial). Satellite TV (and sky ) was sneered at by many in the v late 1980s.Ghedebrav said:
Also arguably in the 90s not having satellite often meant you were a bit posher.Cookie said:
I have some sympathy with that view.nico679 said:I remember the excitement when we got our first video recorder . Sunak grew up in a different generation . His comments are hardly controversial , when you’re a kid you view things from your own peer group . The issue is the comments will grate with those much older.
But also, he's 44. He would have been what, about 12 when Sky launched? Now yes, that's the peak of when you notice not having something. But also surely in 1991 not having Sky was almost ubiquitous?
PS: Why the F**k did they migrate if they wanted TV from Home, barking.
Odessa last night:
“Odesa under attack now
Loud explosion woke me up
Hopefully Ukr troops protect this beautiful city”
https://x.com/nyheternajohan/status/1800712200182694323?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg
“They were mass-attacking Ukraine with Shaheds and then missiles well into the early morning. Once it was all-clear everywhere else, #Odesa got hit by an Iskander-M (5 a.m).
6:15 - and here comes another alert for the entire country because Mig-31 has just taken off…”
https://x.com/oscdomesticated/status/1800731940032794944?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg
You are welcome to join me on my “holibobs”0 -
The UK was sold a proposition half the population knew was a dud from the off and the other half would discover it to be a dud. Brexit really wasn't a smart thing to do.Nunu5 said:
But Brexit happened because of underlying distrust. Brexit is a symptom not a cause.Nigelb said:Interesting poll being reported in the BBC about the precipitous collapse in trust for all politicians in the UK.
The precipitating factor is probably Brexit. 70% now say that it has made things worse.4 -
I agree with @Foxy that this feels about right, although I think it may finish something like this:wooliedyed said:Phone poll out
NEW Survation Telephone Tracker Series for @GMB - Poll 1/4. Full Constituency Ballot Prompt:
CON 23%
LAB - 41%
LD- 10%
REF - 12%
GRE - 6%
SNP - 3%
Others - 4%
f/w 5-11 June, 60% of f/w conducted 10-11 June.
Con 25%
LAB 39%
LD 14%
REF 13%
GRE 4% (remember they have NEVER polled above 3.8% in a GE)
SNP 2% (watch this one)
Others 3%
Which would give a Labour majority of c. 160
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I'm prepared to believe that Rishi was being sincere there, and it's part of his adult mindset.Scott_xP said:@thetimes
Rishi Sunak had to “go without” Sky TV as a child because his parents were making sacrifices for his education, the prime minister has said
@mikeysmith
The other way to read this answer is that if every family works hard and sacrifices luxuries they can send their kids to Winchester.
And if they don’t, they’re not making their children‘s education “a priority”.
It's fair to say that the Sunaks did bust a gut to send Rishi to Winchester. Probably they weren't financially wise to do that, but it was their money.
But little Rishi probably did feel poor- his family had zero spare cash and his schoolmates did. (To return to a point I've made before, private schools are only for richest few percent, not GPs and pharmacists.)
Still a terrible answer, though, however sincere.0 -
+1Foxy said:
Same reason that @Leon spends most of his time on his holibobs trolling on PB and scouring the less salubrious parts of MAGA twitter.malcolmg said:
Those dishes were the ugliest things ever invented, for peasants only.Foxy said:
The major drivers in the early years of Sky were Football and MTV, and also migrant communities wanting programmes from home. It wasn't a posh thing.swing_voter said:
definitely agree with that - the whole satellite dish created huge discussions about class/status (remember the squarial). Satellite TV (and sky ) was sneered at by many in the v late 1980s.Ghedebrav said:
Also arguably in the 90s not having satellite often meant you were a bit posher.Cookie said:
I have some sympathy with that view.nico679 said:I remember the excitement when we got our first video recorder . Sunak grew up in a different generation . His comments are hardly controversial , when you’re a kid you view things from your own peer group . The issue is the comments will grate with those much older.
But also, he's 44. He would have been what, about 12 when Sky launched? Now yes, that's the peak of when you notice not having something. But also surely in 1991 not having Sky was almost ubiquitous?
PS: Why the F**k did they migrate if they wanted TV from Home, barking.
He exaggerates everything to draw attention to himself. The ultimate narcissist, like his latest pin-ups: Trump, Putin,Truss, and Farage1 -
The Tories could do worse for next leader than Alicia Kearns in Rutland and Stamford amongst the survivors of a near Canada event. Not my cup of tea, but not an idiot, and sensible enough to not follow a out-Farage Farage strategy.Benpointer said:
Electoral Calculus Sorted Seat List is helpful:pigeon said:
Has anyone made a full list of the likely senior survivors, should the Tories be reduced to 60, 70, 80 seats? There can't be many. I'm thinking they're likely to include Sunak, Truss, Badenoch, Braverman and Patel, though under present circumstances nobody seems completely safe. Sunak, of course, will be persona non grata and you would've thought that even the Conservative Party wouldn't be mental enough to put Truss back into bat, but who knows? If they're still the second party you can see her back in the Shadow Cabinet: there wouldn't exactly be a plethora of talent to choose from under such a scenario.LostPassword said:
I'm sure there are some Tory MPs who would have done a better job than Sunak, but I think the chances of the Tories choosing one of them in a leadership election to replace Sunak are low.BartholomewRoberts said:
I don't for a second believe 2.Stuartinromford said:
Two things that are probably both true:BartholomewRoberts said:
If Rishi had gone early, the Party could have replaced him and avoided a wipe out.Casino_Royale said:
Thanks goodness Rishi went early otherwise the Conservatives might have been wiped out.Nunu5 said:With this election being a shoo in for Labour, the campaign period is becoming rather boring.
1 Sunak is a bad PM and worse party leader.
2 Sunak is still the best available Conservative PM and party leader right now.
And if it is the case that there isn't a single MP on the Tory benches who could do a better job than Sunak, then they don't deserve to return even a single MP on 4 July.
That said, the election campaign has been bad enough that, with hindsight, I've changed my mind and now think it would have been worth a try.
Regardless, whichever selection makes it to the membership, you have to assume they'll pick the most right wing option.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html0 -
IT’S NOT GONNA GET BETTER STOP LONDON IS NOW ANCHORAGE STOPTimS said:Starmer’s genie still seems to be doling out the wishes.
- Stagnant economic stats this morning, but probably temporary due to wet April and ready to bounce back
- Car crash interview with Sunak
- Awful early summer weather, but
- Consistent model runs showing it gets better and potentially warm and sunny just in time for the start of July1 -
NEW THREAD
0 -
Even the boomers will find that out of touch. In 1956, only 36% of households had a TV at all.Scott_xP said:@thetimes
Rishi Sunak had to “go without” Sky TV as a child because his parents were making sacrifices for his education, the prime minister has said
@mikeysmith
The other way to read this answer is that if every family works hard and sacrifices luxuries they can send their kids to Winchester.
And if they don’t, they’re not making their children‘s education “a priority”.
TV access as a child only became ubiquitous from Gen X onwards.0 -
More of a cause.Nunu5 said:
But Brexit happened because of underlying distrust. Brexit is a symptom not a cause.Nigelb said:Interesting poll being reported in the BBC about the precipitous collapse in trust for all politicians in the UK.
The precipitating factor is probably Brexit. 70% now say that it has made things worse.
It was sold by politicians as a solution to various problems, and has failed to solve any of them.
The biggest recent decline in political trust has been amongst those who voted leave.0 -
Do piss off Sean and get a lifeLeon said:
IT’S NOT GONNA GET BETTER STOP LONDON IS NOW ANCHORAGE STOPTimS said:Starmer’s genie still seems to be doling out the wishes.
- Stagnant economic stats this morning, but probably temporary due to wet April and ready to bounce back
- Car crash interview with Sunak
- Awful early summer weather, but
- Consistent model runs showing it gets better and potentially warm and sunny just in time for the start of July2 -
He's certainly being blessed by lady luck. However she can be fickle and leave on a whim. Only one politician has ever enjoyed her company the whole way through his career and that's Blair.TimS said:Starmer’s genie still seems to be doling out the wishes.
- Stagnant economic stats this morning, but probably temporary due to wet April and ready to bounce back
- Car crash interview with Sunak
- Awful early summer weather, but
- Consistent model runs showing it gets better and potentially warm and sunny just in time for the start of July
0 -
That the Party didn't/wouldn't choose someone else doesn't make him the best available option.Stuartinromford said:
In the second 2022 election, the alternatives were Johnson and Mordaunt. Since one was utterly discredited and the other a political lightweight who hadn't carried a sword well yet, Sunak was the only good choice. The party wouldn't accept Hunt for a nanosecond.BartholomewRoberts said:
I don't for a second believe 2.Stuartinromford said:
Two things that are probably both true:BartholomewRoberts said:
If Rishi had gone early, the Party could have replaced him and avoided a wipe out.Casino_Royale said:
Thanks goodness Rishi went early otherwise the Conservatives might have been wiped out.Nunu5 said:With this election being a shoo in for Labour, the campaign period is becoming rather boring.
1 Sunak is a bad PM and worse party leader.
2 Sunak is still the best available Conservative PM and party leader right now.
And if it is the case that there isn't a single MP on the Tory benches who could do a better job than Sunak, then they don't deserve to return even a single MP on 4 July.
As for your final point, you may well be right. The polls don't have to shift far from where they are to make it so.
Labour didn't replace Corbyn in 2019, that didn't make him the best available leader.
The Tories made a mistake choosing Sunak as leader. Actions have consequences and many MPs will be getting their P45 as a result of that mistake.0 -
That's moderately helpful, thank you. Seems like other potential survivors who could line up for the Tory leadership race include Victoria Atkins, Steve Barclay and Gavin Williamson, perhaps with Mark Francois moving up on the outside rail?Benpointer said:
Electoral Calculus Sorted Seat List is helpful:pigeon said:
Has anyone made a full list of the likely senior survivors, should the Tories be reduced to 60, 70, 80 seats? There can't be many. I'm thinking they're likely to include Sunak, Truss, Badenoch, Braverman and Patel, though under present circumstances nobody seems completely safe. Sunak, of course, will be persona non grata and you would've thought that even the Conservative Party wouldn't be mental enough to put Truss back into bat, but who knows? If they're still the second party you can see her back in the Shadow Cabinet: there wouldn't exactly be a plethora of talent to choose from under such a scenario.LostPassword said:
I'm sure there are some Tory MPs who would have done a better job than Sunak, but I think the chances of the Tories choosing one of them in a leadership election to replace Sunak are low.BartholomewRoberts said:
I don't for a second believe 2.Stuartinromford said:
Two things that are probably both true:BartholomewRoberts said:
If Rishi had gone early, the Party could have replaced him and avoided a wipe out.Casino_Royale said:
Thanks goodness Rishi went early otherwise the Conservatives might have been wiped out.Nunu5 said:With this election being a shoo in for Labour, the campaign period is becoming rather boring.
1 Sunak is a bad PM and worse party leader.
2 Sunak is still the best available Conservative PM and party leader right now.
And if it is the case that there isn't a single MP on the Tory benches who could do a better job than Sunak, then they don't deserve to return even a single MP on 4 July.
That said, the election campaign has been bad enough that, with hindsight, I've changed my mind and now think it would have been worth a try.
Regardless, whichever selection makes it to the membership, you have to assume they'll pick the most right wing option.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html
Truly an embarrassment of riches.0 -
The only way to win at politics is to quit while you are ahead, and very few manage that.Alanbrooke said:
He's certainly being blessed by lady luck. However she can be fickle and leave on a whim. Only one politician has ever enjoyed her company the whole way through his career and that's Blair.TimS said:Starmer’s genie still seems to be doling out the wishes.
- Stagnant economic stats this morning, but probably temporary due to wet April and ready to bounce back
- Car crash interview with Sunak
- Awful early summer weather, but
- Consistent model runs showing it gets better and potentially warm and sunny just in time for the start of July
In Starmer's case, that might happen if he retires at 65. A term and a bit then leave to to muttered "he was sort of OK"s from the public.1 -
I'm not this Sean character. He wouldn't have the BALLS OF HARDENED STEEL to come to UkraineHeathener said:
Do piss off Sean and get a lifeLeon said:
IT’S NOT GONNA GET BETTER STOP LONDON IS NOW ANCHORAGE STOPTimS said:Starmer’s genie still seems to be doling out the wishes.
- Stagnant economic stats this morning, but probably temporary due to wet April and ready to bounce back
- Car crash interview with Sunak
- Awful early summer weather, but
- Consistent model runs showing it gets better and potentially warm and sunny just in time for the start of July0 -
The Tory membership doesn't do sensible. They'll pick Suella.Foxy said:
The Tories could do worse for next leader than Alicia Kearns in Rutland and Stamford amongst the survivors of a near Canada event. Not my cup of tea, but not an idiot, and sensible enough to not follow a out-Farage Farage strategy.Benpointer said:
Electoral Calculus Sorted Seat List is helpful:pigeon said:
Has anyone made a full list of the likely senior survivors, should the Tories be reduced to 60, 70, 80 seats? There can't be many. I'm thinking they're likely to include Sunak, Truss, Badenoch, Braverman and Patel, though under present circumstances nobody seems completely safe. Sunak, of course, will be persona non grata and you would've thought that even the Conservative Party wouldn't be mental enough to put Truss back into bat, but who knows? If they're still the second party you can see her back in the Shadow Cabinet: there wouldn't exactly be a plethora of talent to choose from under such a scenario.LostPassword said:
I'm sure there are some Tory MPs who would have done a better job than Sunak, but I think the chances of the Tories choosing one of them in a leadership election to replace Sunak are low.BartholomewRoberts said:
I don't for a second believe 2.Stuartinromford said:
Two things that are probably both true:BartholomewRoberts said:
If Rishi had gone early, the Party could have replaced him and avoided a wipe out.Casino_Royale said:
Thanks goodness Rishi went early otherwise the Conservatives might have been wiped out.Nunu5 said:With this election being a shoo in for Labour, the campaign period is becoming rather boring.
1 Sunak is a bad PM and worse party leader.
2 Sunak is still the best available Conservative PM and party leader right now.
And if it is the case that there isn't a single MP on the Tory benches who could do a better job than Sunak, then they don't deserve to return even a single MP on 4 July.
That said, the election campaign has been bad enough that, with hindsight, I've changed my mind and now think it would have been worth a try.
Regardless, whichever selection makes it to the membership, you have to assume they'll pick the most right wing option.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html0 -
Yes, that's very credible.Heathener said:
I agree with @Foxy that this feels about right, although I think it may finish something like this:wooliedyed said:Phone poll out
NEW Survation Telephone Tracker Series for @GMB - Poll 1/4. Full Constituency Ballot Prompt:
CON 23%
LAB - 41%
LD- 10%
REF - 12%
GRE - 6%
SNP - 3%
Others - 4%
f/w 5-11 June, 60% of f/w conducted 10-11 June.
Con 25%
LAB 39%
LD 14%
REF 13%
GRE 4% (remember they have NEVER polled above 3.8% in a GE)
SNP 2% (watch this one)
Others 3%
Which would give a Labour majority of c. 1602 -
Maybe a point off LD and Ref and on Con and Lab but yeah, ballparkCasino_Royale said:
Yes, that's very credible.Heathener said:
I agree with @Foxy that this feels about right, although I think it may finish something like this:wooliedyed said:Phone poll out
NEW Survation Telephone Tracker Series for @GMB - Poll 1/4. Full Constituency Ballot Prompt:
CON 23%
LAB - 41%
LD- 10%
REF - 12%
GRE - 6%
SNP - 3%
Others - 4%
f/w 5-11 June, 60% of f/w conducted 10-11 June.
Con 25%
LAB 39%
LD 14%
REF 13%
GRE 4% (remember they have NEVER polled above 3.8% in a GE)
SNP 2% (watch this one)
Others 3%
Which would give a Labour majority of c. 1601 -
It would be deeply ironic (as well as, obviously, somewhat tragic) if one of your former hero's missiles landed on you.Leon said:
“Holibobs”? I’m in OdessaFoxy said:
Same reason that @Leon spends most of his time on his holibobs trolling on PB and scouring the less salubrious parts of MAGA twitter.malcolmg said:
Those dishes were the ugliest things ever invented, for peasants only.Foxy said:
The major drivers in the early years of Sky were Football and MTV, and also migrant communities wanting programmes from home. It wasn't a posh thing.swing_voter said:
definitely agree with that - the whole satellite dish created huge discussions about class/status (remember the squarial). Satellite TV (and sky ) was sneered at by many in the v late 1980s.Ghedebrav said:
Also arguably in the 90s not having satellite often meant you were a bit posher.Cookie said:
I have some sympathy with that view.nico679 said:I remember the excitement when we got our first video recorder . Sunak grew up in a different generation . His comments are hardly controversial , when you’re a kid you view things from your own peer group . The issue is the comments will grate with those much older.
But also, he's 44. He would have been what, about 12 when Sky launched? Now yes, that's the peak of when you notice not having something. But also surely in 1991 not having Sky was almost ubiquitous?
PS: Why the F**k did they migrate if they wanted TV from Home, barking.
Odessa last night:
“Odesa under attack now
Loud explosion woke me up
Hopefully Ukr troops protect this beautiful city”
https://x.com/nyheternajohan/status/1800712200182694323?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg
“They were mass-attacking Ukraine with Shaheds and then missiles well into the early morning. Once it was all-clear everywhere else, #Odesa got hit by an Iskander-M (5 a.m).
6:15 - and here comes another alert for the entire country because Mig-31 has just taken off…”
https://x.com/oscdomesticated/status/1800731940032794944?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg
You are welcome to join me on my “holibobs”
A pointed reply from the man whom you thought destined to "save the West".0 -
Not much hope of migrants enjoying that lifestyle in UK unless they are from North PoleOnlyLivingBoy said:
Maybe they weren't planning on watching TV 24 hours a day? When my grandparents retired to Mallorca they watched British TV via Sky but I think they were still happy to be able to swim in their pool, eat lunch on the terrace, and drink gallons of inexpensive Spanish wine!malcolmg said:
Those dishes were the ugliest things ever invented, for peasants only.Foxy said:
The major drivers in the early years of Sky were Football and MTV, and also migrant communities wanting programmes from home. It wasn't a posh thing.swing_voter said:
definitely agree with that - the whole satellite dish created huge discussions about class/status (remember the squarial). Satellite TV (and sky ) was sneered at by many in the v late 1980s.Ghedebrav said:
Also arguably in the 90s not having satellite often meant you were a bit posher.Cookie said:
I have some sympathy with that view.nico679 said:I remember the excitement when we got our first video recorder . Sunak grew up in a different generation . His comments are hardly controversial , when you’re a kid you view things from your own peer group . The issue is the comments will grate with those much older.
But also, he's 44. He would have been what, about 12 when Sky launched? Now yes, that's the peak of when you notice not having something. But also surely in 1991 not having Sky was almost ubiquitous?
PS: Why the F**k did they migrate if they wanted TV from Home, barking.0 -
They must have a sweep running to see who gives the absolutely worst possible excuseScott_xP said:Is it possible they can make this any worse?
@SkyNews
Sky's @KayBurley asks the Secretary of Defence if Rishi Sunak is 'tone deaf when it comes to D-Day'
'The part that he didn't attend had no British veterans at it at all and he has rightly issued his apology' says
@grantshapps
It was an ALLIED landing FFS1 -
He si totally tin eared and out of touch with teh real world, not very bright in any real sense.Stuartinromford said:
I'm prepared to believe that Rishi was being sincere there, and it's part of his adult mindset.Scott_xP said:@thetimes
Rishi Sunak had to “go without” Sky TV as a child because his parents were making sacrifices for his education, the prime minister has said
@mikeysmith
The other way to read this answer is that if every family works hard and sacrifices luxuries they can send their kids to Winchester.
And if they don’t, they’re not making their children‘s education “a priority”.
It's fair to say that the Sunaks did bust a gut to send Rishi to Winchester. Probably they weren't financially wise to do that, but it was their money.
But little Rishi probably did feel poor- his family had zero spare cash and his schoolmates did. (To return to a point I've made before, private schools are only for richest few percent, not GPs and pharmacists.)
Still a terrible answer, though, however sincere.0 -
You are a nasty piece of work , no need to be giving out names whether well known or not.Heathener said:
Do piss off Sean and get a lifeLeon said:
IT’S NOT GONNA GET BETTER STOP LONDON IS NOW ANCHORAGE STOPTimS said:Starmer’s genie still seems to be doling out the wishes.
- Stagnant economic stats this morning, but probably temporary due to wet April and ready to bounce back
- Car crash interview with Sunak
- Awful early summer weather, but
- Consistent model runs showing it gets better and potentially warm and sunny just in time for the start of July1 -
This is my problem with the whole thing too. Away from the politics of it all. Nobody seems to have addressed the key question: why did he do it? It’s utterly bizarre. Baffling.Cookie said:Back to D-day-ITV interview-gate again, which I know we've done to death but still baffles me.
Surely D-day memorials have been planned in for ages? Since long before the election? Why didn't he just schedule his ITV meeting around his existing commitments? For pretty much all of the campaign period he's almost totally in charge of his diary, apart from that slot. It was clearly a choice to leave early to do an iTV interview which he thought would be a net positive.
Like his choice of choosing Manchester as his location to announce the cancellation of HS2 to Manchester. It wasn't something he was forced into, it's something he thought would make him look good.
He may or may not be the worst PM since Brown, but he's certainly the strangest.
And at least Brown knew straight away that bigoted-woman gate sounded bad. Rishi gives every impression of having genuinely no idea what does or doesn't show him in a good light.
Doubly strange given the clearly highly curated but quite slick image of himself he portrayed while at the Treasury.
The only plausible explanation I have is that someone pretty good in charge of his image has been replaced by someone either astonishingly terrible or actively malign.0 -
I hope the Gods arn’t reading this 🫣 it would be obvious what bit of hot metal the next drone will latch onto.Leon said:
I'm not this Sean character. He wouldn't have the BALLS OF HARDENED STEEL to come to UkraineHeathener said:
Do piss off Sean and get a lifeLeon said:
IT’S NOT GONNA GET BETTER STOP LONDON IS NOW ANCHORAGE STOPTimS said:Starmer’s genie still seems to be doling out the wishes.
- Stagnant economic stats this morning, but probably temporary due to wet April and ready to bounce back
- Car crash interview with Sunak
- Awful early summer weather, but
- Consistent model runs showing it gets better and potentially warm and sunny just in time for the start of July
Iran made drone, in the bread basket of a knapper 🫢1 -
That was the lowest point of the campaign for me. Pretty sinister stuff.Casino_Royale said:I expect the Tory/Reform vote to stay split, and not lead to a May 2019 style collapse in favour of the latter, because that was about Getting Brexit Done whereas this is a values split in the centre-right coalition for a GE. And I think Reform has a ceiling on that.
I'm certainly not voting Reform. I'm a fairly right-wing Conservative, but I am still a Conservative and I don't particularly like them or their brand of politics. The dogwhistling over Rishi leaving D-Day early because "he doesn't understand our culture" being just one aspect.0 -
For me, that’s vastly worse than Sunak’s turn of phrase with ITV. What is Shapps thinking?Scott_xP said:Is it possible they can make this any worse?
@SkyNews
Sky's @KayBurley asks the Secretary of Defence if Rishi Sunak is 'tone deaf when it comes to D-Day'
'The part that he didn't attend had no British veterans at it at all and he has rightly issued his apology' says
@grantshapps
It was an ALLIED landing FFS
1 -
She would be seen as too woke to win a leadership election.Foxy said:
The Tories could do worse for next leader than Alicia Kearns in Rutland and Stamford amongst the survivors of a near Canada event. Not my cup of tea, but not an idiot, and sensible enough to not follow a out-Farage Farage strategy.Benpointer said:
Electoral Calculus Sorted Seat List is helpful:pigeon said:
Has anyone made a full list of the likely senior survivors, should the Tories be reduced to 60, 70, 80 seats? There can't be many. I'm thinking they're likely to include Sunak, Truss, Badenoch, Braverman and Patel, though under present circumstances nobody seems completely safe. Sunak, of course, will be persona non grata and you would've thought that even the Conservative Party wouldn't be mental enough to put Truss back into bat, but who knows? If they're still the second party you can see her back in the Shadow Cabinet: there wouldn't exactly be a plethora of talent to choose from under such a scenario.LostPassword said:
I'm sure there are some Tory MPs who would have done a better job than Sunak, but I think the chances of the Tories choosing one of them in a leadership election to replace Sunak are low.BartholomewRoberts said:
I don't for a second believe 2.Stuartinromford said:
Two things that are probably both true:BartholomewRoberts said:
If Rishi had gone early, the Party could have replaced him and avoided a wipe out.Casino_Royale said:
Thanks goodness Rishi went early otherwise the Conservatives might have been wiped out.Nunu5 said:With this election being a shoo in for Labour, the campaign period is becoming rather boring.
1 Sunak is a bad PM and worse party leader.
2 Sunak is still the best available Conservative PM and party leader right now.
And if it is the case that there isn't a single MP on the Tory benches who could do a better job than Sunak, then they don't deserve to return even a single MP on 4 July.
That said, the election campaign has been bad enough that, with hindsight, I've changed my mind and now think it would have been worth a try.
Regardless, whichever selection makes it to the membership, you have to assume they'll pick the most right wing option.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html0 -
Shapps thinking?Anabobazina said:
For me, that’s vastly worse than Sunak’s turn of phrase with ITV. What is Shapps thinking?Scott_xP said:Is it possible they can make this any worse?
@SkyNews
Sky's @KayBurley asks the Secretary of Defence if Rishi Sunak is 'tone deaf when it comes to D-Day'
'The part that he didn't attend had no British veterans at it at all and he has rightly issued his apology' says
@grantshapps
It was an ALLIED landing FFS
I think I've found your problem.0 -
Clutching at straws. Current Boris is nowhere near as popular as 2019 Boris. Bear in mind his approval rating when he finally made a run for it.wooliedyed said:
Operation Unleash Big Dog but put a fence around the Home Counties!pigeon said:
Not even Bojo can outfarage Farage, and he is nuclear waste in the polite Home Counties.wooliedyed said:I think the Tories are surely going to throw themselves on Boris mercy and go for Operation Unleash Big Dog in the run in?
Let him run about being Boris up North
I imagine that the Red Wall voters are as pissed off as anybody about Johnsons' Levelling-Up and Brexit lies.0 -
Beth Rigby?Jonathan said:
Luxury.FrancisUrquhart said:Rishi Sunak went without ‘lots of things’ including Sky TV as a child
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/12/rishi-sunak-went-without-lots-of-things-including-sky-tv-as-a-child
Doesn't sound very interesting interview. I am sure it will get the sneering on the tw@tters as "out of touch" for saying Sky is hardship of going without (which isn't quite what he says).
We didn't have Sky when growing up, I had to get my mates to record the footy on VHS for me.
Paradise.0
