Punters unmoved by YouGov showing Labour dropping into the 30s – politicalbetting.com

Cookie said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

MattW said:

RochdalePioneers said:

PedestrianRock said:

@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.

Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…

EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…

Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .

Matt/Rochdale

It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.

Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?

Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?

I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.

Good evening

I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result

Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson

If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.

I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!

MoonRabbit said:

MoonRabbit said:

FT going nice and gentle are Sunak’s manifesto as big Front Page splash. I thought they would have focused more harshly on the dodgy revenue schemes. Perhaps they would have done if he was 20 points ahead?

The “I” has gone gentle on Sunak’s Manifesto too. Tories getting away with all that dodgy maths.

Scott_xP said:

I know we did this poll earlier

@SamCoatesSky
Sky News / YouGov exclusive poll

** Tories joint lowest VI share in Parliament
** Reform just ONE point behind
** Lab down 3; LD up 4

LAB 38% (-3),
CON 18% (-1),
RefUK 17% (+1),
LDEM 15% (+4),
GRN 8% (+1)

Fieldwork Mon/Tue (around Lib Dem manfiesto coverage)

but did we do this bit

@DrAlanWager
This, plugged into the FT's model (which does not explicitly try to guess at how tactical voters will split), gives the Lib Dems over 100 seats and the Conservative Party 31.

https://x.com/DrAlanWager/status/1800564841352188311

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Eric Ten Hag to stay as Manchester United Manager

Probably the right decision but why take so long to confirm it

Andy_JS said:

Woman on BBC News, in Aldershot, says the choice for her is between Labour and Reform.

Peter_the_Punter said:

Benpointer said:

dixiedean said:

Cookie said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

MattW said:

RochdalePioneers said:

PedestrianRock said:

@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.

Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…

EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…

Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .

Matt/Rochdale

It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.

Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?

Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?

I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.

Good evening

I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result

Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson

If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.

I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!

Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson.
Snowflake will be back.

Who's Snowflake?

She was a very active poster here for some time. She was then and still is an MP but she never identified herself here by her real name so her anonymity should be respected.

Ex MP Louise Mensch always posted under her real name, as does Nick Palmer of course.

Aaron Bell originally posted under his own name, but changed it to Tissue Price when he stood for Parliament. This is perfectly understandable, but was hardly a secret. I'm hoping we'll see a lot more of him now that he has left the House. Apart from anything else he gave some cracking tips.

Mike Smithson once told me that a lot of MPs follow this site, and some post occasionally under pseudonyms. i can believe this easily, but Mike has always been the soul of discretion, and to the best of my knowledge none were ever outed.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Eric Ten Hag to stay as Manchester United Manager

Probably the right decision but why take so long to confirm it

Its like the Tories sticking with Sunak....

Peter_the_Punter said:

Benpointer said:

dixiedean said:

Cookie said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

MattW said:

RochdalePioneers said:

PedestrianRock said:

@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.

Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…

EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…

Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .

Matt/Rochdale

It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.

Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?

Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?

I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.

Good evening

I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result

Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson

If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.

I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!

Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson.
Snowflake will be back.

Who's Snowflake?

She was a very active poster here for some time. She was then and still is an MP but she never identified herself here by her real name so her anonymity should be respected.

Ex MP Louise Mensch always posted under her real name, as does Nick Palmer of course.

Aaron Bell originally posted under his own name, but changed it to Tissue Price when he stood for Parliament. This is perfectly understandable, but was hardly a secret. I'm hoping we'll see a lot more of him now that he has left the House. Apart from anything else he gave some cracking tips.

Mike Smithson once told me that a lot of MPs follow this site, and some post occasionally under pseudonyms. i can believe this easily, but Mike has always been the soul of discretion, and to the best of my knowledge none were ever outed.

MoonRabbit said:

MoonRabbit said:

FT going nice and gentle are Sunak’s manifesto as big Front Page splash. I thought they would have focused more harshly on the dodgy revenue schemes. Perhaps they would have done if he was 20 points ahead?

The “I” has gone gentle on Sunak’s Manifesto too. Tories getting away with all that dodgy maths.

SouthamObserver said:

Benpointer said:

Andy_JS said:

SandyRentool said:

Just to say, no party securing 38% of the vote should have a majority, let alone a landslide.

FPTP is a load of undemocratic shite.

Not just a majority, but a 300 seat majority according to Electoral Calculus. 475 seats to 175 for all other parties.

That's probably enough to hole FPTP below the waterline.

Against which: 1. No incentive for the incoming government to change the system, 2. The 2011 AV referendum vote.

The only way to get electoral reform is to get a hung Parliament first. No government with an overall majority will ever volunteer to give it up. I wish it were otherwise, but them's the facts!

FrancisUrquhart said:

When we start to list them, there has been rather a lot of sex scandals that have ended MPs careers in recent years.

JohnLilburne said:

Leon said:

carnforth said:

kyf_100 said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

Do we now have two winters per year? If Sunak was hoping for some feel-good weather, the elements are not on his side.

I’ve told you. London is now Anchorage. It’s why I’ve emigrated

I've spent a lot of time today looking at digital nomad visas and wondering if it's possible to keep on touring the world on a shoestring budget.

Has to be better than waiting around in a chilly flat in London for the three or so days a month of freelance work to dribble in.

I actually have my electric blanket out tonight. In June.

If you've never travelled for more than a couple of weeks, bugger off now for a couple of months and see if it palls. £1500 all in per month doable short haul if you pick the right places - airbnb places often have low monthly rates, so it pays not to move too often. Of course you have picked the wrong time of year, price-wise, for the wanderlust.

Not true. You can do Eastern Europe and it’s cheap away from the Med. And often lovely

Albania is cheap and the locals are friendly (they appear to have exported their criminals). Kosovo also nice, but no beaches. Poland and the Baltics are getting more expensive.

dixiedean said:

MoonRabbit said:

MoonRabbit said:

FT going nice and gentle are Sunak’s manifesto as big Front Page splash. I thought they would have focused more harshly on the dodgy revenue schemes. Perhaps they would have done if he was 20 points ahead?

The “I” has gone gentle on Sunak’s Manifesto too. Tories getting away with all that dodgy maths.

Tories treated like Liberal Democrats?
It ain't gonna happen so it ain't worth scrutinising closely.

Benpointer said:

Andy_JS said:

Benpointer said:

Andy_JS said:

SandyRentool said:

Just to say, no party securing 38% of the vote should have a majority, let alone a landslide.

FPTP is a load of undemocratic shite.

Not just a majority, but a 300 seat majority according to Electoral Calculus. 475 seats to 175 for all other parties.

That's probably enough to hole FPTP below the waterline.

Against which: 1. No incentive for the incoming government to change the system, 2. The 2011 AV referendum vote.

If Labour win a big majority they should just bring in proportional representation via a simple vote in the Commons. Don't bother with a referendum. That's how the system works in this country, MPs are elected to make these decisions.

I agree but a constitutional change by the HoC overriding a referendum vote? Are you ok with that principle?

Same approach could be applied to Re-join.

ohnotnow said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

MattW said:

RochdalePioneers said:

PedestrianRock said:

@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.

Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…

EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…

Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .

Matt/Rochdale

It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.

Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?

Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?

I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.

Good evening

I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result

Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson

Given how much she supposedly despises him, that'd tickle me a little.

rcs1000 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Dumbosaurus said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Stuartinromford said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Tweedledee said:

NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.

Not really.

With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.

There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.

Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.

What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land?
Labour's manifesto launch.
The BBC head to head debate.

Anything else?

Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.

If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.

I am not sure the Tory leaning media heart is even in it. There are plenty of awkward comments that Labour figures, including Starmer, have made in the past. In previous election, they would be running them left, right and centre, instead they are minor stories tucked away on the websites. While the Speccy seems very keen to boot Sunak up the arse.

It's pretty obvious what the story is. If the tories are stupid enough to use it then it'll backfire within a couple of days. All the mysterious prominent senior Labour figure with legal training has to say is that his private life remains private. And meanwhile a mysterious junior Labour figure will leak far more damaging nepotism allegations about equally senior (in the near past) Tory figures and the electorate will be reminded what this election is about.

I have no idea what the story might be.Some hints without allegations might be helpful.

After Johnson's behaviour it is not easy to see any scandal having too much traction unless it involves children or kittens.

I believe the story is about children, kittens, half a jar of peanut butter and a 1972 Austin Allegra.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

dixiedean said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Eric Ten Hag to stay as Manchester United Manager

Probably the right decision but why take so long to confirm it

Its like the Tories sticking with Sunak....

Except Ten Hag miraculously, at the very last moment, kept them in Europe.

In the European equivalent of the League Cup.

With Spurs

Peter_the_Punter said:

Benpointer said:

dixiedean said:

Cookie said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

MattW said:

RochdalePioneers said:

PedestrianRock said:

@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.

Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…

EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…

Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .

Matt/Rochdale

It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.

Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?

Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?

I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.

Good evening

I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result

Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson

If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.

I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!

Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson.
Snowflake will be back.

Who's Snowflake?

She was a very active poster here for some time. She was then and still is an MP but she never identified herself here by her real name so her anonymity should be respected.

Ex MP Louise Mensch always posted under her real name, as does Nick Palmer of course.

Aaron Bell originally posted under his own name, but changed it to Tissue Price when he stood for Parliament. This is perfectly understandable, but was hardly a secret. I'm hoping we'll see a lot more of him now that he has left the House. Apart from anything else he gave some cracking tips.

Mike Smithson once told me that a lot of MPs follow this site, and some post occasionally under pseudonyms. i can believe this easily, but Mike has always been the soul of discretion, and to the best of my knowledge none were ever outed.

Leon said:

Biden is now essentially incoherent. Someone needs to intervene. This is NOW - how can he possibly be president for 4 more years??


https://x.com/stillgray/status/1800628158317867337?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_Ian said:

eek said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

rottenborough said:

kle4 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Evening all! Sunak polling well below Liz Truss:

Things are getting worse, not better. Hard to see where good news will come from to turn things round so they can recover to disastrous up from extinction.

Dan Hodges tweeted almost daily for months that waiting any longer would make Tory defeat worse but i suspect he hadn't factored in them running the worst campaign since Michael Foot.

To be honest right now the Tory campaign looks worse than Foot's.

If this was the campaign they ran in the Autumn they would be starting from a worse position. The only upside is that Rishi wouldn't have left DD to do an rumoured to be utter appalling ITV interview.

When do we get to see this interview?

I do not know, but I do know it is Sunak v Starmer live on Sky tomorrow evening with Sky drawing Starmer to go first meaning Sunak will have the last say

I wonder what Sunak will say? Perhaps "I have a plan, my plan is working, Starmer has no plan, except increasing taxes for every working person by £2017 every day".

dixiedean said:

Benpointer said:

Andy_JS said:

Benpointer said:

Andy_JS said:

SandyRentool said:

Just to say, no party securing 38% of the vote should have a majority, let alone a landslide.

FPTP is a load of undemocratic shite.

Not just a majority, but a 300 seat majority according to Electoral Calculus. 475 seats to 175 for all other parties.

That's probably enough to hole FPTP below the waterline.

Against which: 1. No incentive for the incoming government to change the system, 2. The 2011 AV referendum vote.

If Labour win a big majority they should just bring in proportional representation via a simple vote in the Commons. Don't bother with a referendum. That's how the system works in this country, MPs are elected to make these decisions.

I agree but a constitutional change by the HoC overriding a referendum vote? Are you ok with that principle?

Same approach could be applied to Re-join.

Was just done with the PPC and Mayoral voting system.
It isn't a Constitutional change. It's a voting system change.
Not the same thing. At all.

Peter_the_Punter said:

Benpointer said:

dixiedean said:

Cookie said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

MattW said:

RochdalePioneers said:

PedestrianRock said:

@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.

Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…

EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…

Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .

Matt/Rochdale

It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.

Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?

Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?

I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.

Good evening

I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result

Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson

If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.

I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!

Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson.
Snowflake will be back.

Who's Snowflake?

She was a very active poster here for some time. She was then and still is an MP but she never identified herself here by her real name so her anonymity should be respected.

Ex MP Louise Mensch always posted under her real name, as does Nick Palmer of course.

Aaron Bell originally posted under his own name, but changed it to Tissue Price when he stood for Parliament. This is perfectly understandable, but was hardly a secret. I'm hoping we'll see a lot more of him now that he has left the House. Apart from anything else he gave some cracking tips.

Mike Smithson once told me that a lot of MPs follow this site, and some post occasionally under pseudonyms. i can believe this easily, but Mike has always been the soul of discretion, and to the best of my knowledge none were ever outed.

RochdalePioneers said:

Posting under your own name is crazy. Post under a pseudonym like I do. Nobody has a clue what my name is...

Stuartinromford said:

Meanwhile, the Mail are probably more realistic in their takeaway from the manifesto launch:

RISHI: DON'T GIVE LABOUR A BLANK CHEQUE

https://www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk/

Nigelb said:

.

rcs1000 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Dumbosaurus said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Stuartinromford said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Tweedledee said:

NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.

Not really.

With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.

There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.

Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.

What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land?
Labour's manifesto launch.
The BBC head to head debate.

Anything else?

Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.

If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.

I am not sure the Tory leaning media heart is even in it. There are plenty of awkward comments that Labour figures, including Starmer, have made in the past. In previous election, they would be running them left, right and centre, instead they are minor stories tucked away on the websites. While the Speccy seems very keen to boot Sunak up the arse.

It's pretty obvious what the story is. If the tories are stupid enough to use it then it'll backfire within a couple of days. All the mysterious prominent senior Labour figure with legal training has to say is that his private life remains private. And meanwhile a mysterious junior Labour figure will leak far more damaging nepotism allegations about equally senior (in the near past) Tory figures and the electorate will be reminded what this election is about.

I have no idea what the story might be.Some hints without allegations might be helpful.

After Johnson's behaviour it is not easy to see any scandal having too much traction unless it involves children or kittens.

I believe the story is about children, kittens, half a jar of peanut butter and a 1972 Austin Allegra.

Not Allegra Austin ?

JohnO said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Benpointer said:

dixiedean said:

Cookie said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

MattW said:

RochdalePioneers said:

PedestrianRock said:

@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.

Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…

EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…

Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .

Matt/Rochdale

It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.

Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?

Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?

I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.

Good evening

I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result

Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson

If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.

I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!

Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson.
Snowflake will be back.

Who's Snowflake?

She was a very active poster here for some time. She was then and still is an MP but she never identified herself here by her real name so her anonymity should be respected.

Ex MP Louise Mensch always posted under her real name, as does Nick Palmer of course.

Aaron Bell originally posted under his own name, but changed it to Tissue Price when he stood for Parliament. This is perfectly understandable, but was hardly a secret. I'm hoping we'll see a lot more of him now that he has left the House. Apart from anything else he gave some cracking tips.

Mike Smithson once told me that a lot of MPs follow this site, and some post occasionally under pseudonyms. i can believe this easily, but Mike has always been the soul of discretion, and to the best of my knowledge none were ever outed.

Peter, I'm pretty certain that Louis Mensch did not post under her own name but as com*******r.

JohnO said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Benpointer said:

dixiedean said:

Cookie said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

MattW said:

RochdalePioneers said:

PedestrianRock said:

@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.

Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…

EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…

Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .

Matt/Rochdale

It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.

Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?

Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?

I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.

Good evening

I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result

Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson

If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.

I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!

Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson.
Snowflake will be back.

Who's Snowflake?

She was a very active poster here for some time. She was then and still is an MP but she never identified herself here by her real name so her anonymity should be respected.

Ex MP Louise Mensch always posted under her real name, as does Nick Palmer of course.

Aaron Bell originally posted under his own name, but changed it to Tissue Price when he stood for Parliament. This is perfectly understandable, but was hardly a secret. I'm hoping we'll see a lot more of him now that he has left the House. Apart from anything else he gave some cracking tips.

Mike Smithson once told me that a lot of MPs follow this site, and some post occasionally under pseudonyms. i can believe this easily, but Mike has always been the soul of discretion, and to the best of my knowledge none were ever outed.

Peter, I'm pretty certain that Louise Mensch did not post under her own name but as com*******r.

Fairliered said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_Ian said:

eek said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

rottenborough said:

kle4 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Evening all! Sunak polling well below Liz Truss:

Things are getting worse, not better. Hard to see where good news will come from to turn things round so they can recover to disastrous up from extinction.

Dan Hodges tweeted almost daily for months that waiting any longer would make Tory defeat worse but i suspect he hadn't factored in them running the worst campaign since Michael Foot.

To be honest right now the Tory campaign looks worse than Foot's.

If this was the campaign they ran in the Autumn they would be starting from a worse position. The only upside is that Rishi wouldn't have left DD to do an rumoured to be utter appalling ITV interview.

When do we get to see this interview?

I do not know, but I do know it is Sunak v Starmer live on Sky tomorrow evening with Sky drawing Starmer to go first meaning Sunak will have the last say

I wonder what Sunak will say? Perhaps "I have a plan, my plan is working, Starmer has no plan, except increasing taxes for every working person by £2017 every day".

I would be interested in the results of a poll that asked whether voters would be willing to pay an additional £2,017 in tax, in return for better services.

Benpointer said:

Scott_xP said:

dixiedean said:

Stuartinromford said:

Meanwhile, the Mail are probably more realistic in their takeaway from the manifesto launch:

RISHI: DON'T GIVE LABOUR A BLANK CHEQUE

https://www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk/

Does anyone under 40 know what a cheque is?
Let alone a blank one.

I tried to pay a cheque in a Bank recently. They were bemused and befuddled. One of them had to phone a friend.

Must've been a big one. Most cheques can be paid in on a mobile banking app.

Benpointer said:

dixiedean said:

Stuartinromford said:

Meanwhile, the Mail are probably more realistic in their takeaway from the manifesto launch:

RISHI: DON'T GIVE LABOUR A BLANK CHEQUE

https://www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk/

Does anyone under 40 know what a cheque is?
Let alone a blank one.

Does anyone under 40 by the Mail?

dixiedean said:

rcs1000 said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Benpointer said:

dixiedean said:

Cookie said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

MattW said:

RochdalePioneers said:

PedestrianRock said:

@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.

Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…

EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…

Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .

Matt/Rochdale

It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.

Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?

Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?

I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.

Good evening

I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result

Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson

If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.

I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!

Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson.
Snowflake will be back.

Who's Snowflake?

She was a very active poster here for some time. She was then and still is an MP but she never identified herself here by her real name so her anonymity should be respected.

Ex MP Louise Mensch always posted under her real name, as does Nick Palmer of course.

Aaron Bell originally posted under his own name, but changed it to Tissue Price when he stood for Parliament. This is perfectly understandable, but was hardly a secret. I'm hoping we'll see a lot more of him now that he has left the House. Apart from anything else he gave some cracking tips.

Mike Smithson once told me that a lot of MPs follow this site, and some post occasionally under pseudonyms. i can believe this easily, but Mike has always been the soul of discretion, and to the best of my knowledge none were ever outed.

The original Jack_W's identity is also a very poorly kept secret.

Is it?
Not one I'm party to.

Nigelb said:

Wut ?

Krishnan Guru-Murthy crucifies Mel Stride on abolishing National Insurance for self employed and on pension

KGM, "You're getting rid of class 4 National Insurance contributions for the self employed"

MS, "Yes"

KGM, "So how do self employed qualify for a state pension?"

MS, "You can still have a system where you have nil rate National Insurance and have that as a contribution to state pension"

KGM, "So self employed people will just get a state pension for free now?"

MS, "Well, they will make their contribution to the economy in the normal way"
https://x.com/implausibleblog/status/1800623762657640905

Peter_the_Punter said:

JohnO said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Benpointer said:

dixiedean said:

Cookie said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

MattW said:

RochdalePioneers said:

PedestrianRock said:

@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.

Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…

EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…

Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .

Matt/Rochdale

It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.

Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?

Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?

I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.

Good evening

I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result

Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson

If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.

I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!

Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson.
Snowflake will be back.

Who's Snowflake?

She was a very active poster here for some time. She was then and still is an MP but she never identified herself here by her real name so her anonymity should be respected.

Ex MP Louise Mensch always posted under her real name, as does Nick Palmer of course.

Aaron Bell originally posted under his own name, but changed it to Tissue Price when he stood for Parliament. This is perfectly understandable, but was hardly a secret. I'm hoping we'll see a lot more of him now that he has left the House. Apart from anything else he gave some cracking tips.

Mike Smithson once told me that a lot of MPs follow this site, and some post occasionally under pseudonyms. i can believe this easily, but Mike has always been the soul of discretion, and to the best of my knowledge none were ever outed.

Peter, I'm pretty certain that Louis Mensch did not post under her own name but as com*******r.

You may be right, John, but I can't think how I would have known the name if she didn't volunteer it. Nobody passed it on to me, as they did with Snowflake.

Anyway, it was a very long time ago and she stopped posting soon after leaving the House.

How's you? Keeping the Peril at bay down there in the wilds of Hersham?

JohnLilburne said:

Leon said:

JohnLilburne said:

Leon said:

carnforth said:

kyf_100 said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

Do we now have two winters per year? If Sunak was hoping for some feel-good weather, the elements are not on his side.

I’ve told you. London is now Anchorage. It’s why I’ve emigrated

I've spent a lot of time today looking at digital nomad visas and wondering if it's possible to keep on touring the world on a shoestring budget.

Has to be better than waiting around in a chilly flat in London for the three or so days a month of freelance work to dribble in.

I actually have my electric blanket out tonight. In June.

If you've never travelled for more than a couple of weeks, bugger off now for a couple of months and see if it palls. £1500 all in per month doable short haul if you pick the right places - airbnb places often have low monthly rates, so it pays not to move too often. Of course you have picked the wrong time of year, price-wise, for the wanderlust.

Not true. You can do Eastern Europe and it’s cheap away from the Med. And often lovely

Albania is cheap and the locals are friendly (they appear to have exported their criminals). Kosovo also nice, but no beaches. Poland and the Baltics are getting more expensive.

Rural moldova, rural Bulgaria, inland Montenegro, rural Romania, mainland Greece is particularly stunning. And cheap. And sunny

And go to Ukraine if you want magnificent cities and a unique experience (and the odd drone and air raid siren). Lviv and Odessa are world class. Kyiv is fascinating for a few days. Smaller towns like chernivtsi are beguiling, too

That’s life sorted til October when the weather turns. Then you move on to Asia

I have unfortunately only spent one long weekend in Romania (Cluj, Wizz had just started direct flights and they were bugger cheap) and not been to Bulgaria. Ukraine is nice, Lviv is a mini Kraków and the battlefield of Poltava is worth a visit. Ate dried fish (taranka) in a bar in Kyiv. Did my first trip to SEA this winter (Thai and Cambodia) and hope to go back for my first retired winter starting with Nam north to south

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Its funny how some people can survive story about an affair, but running up a big bill on your iPad to watch the footy or your husband watching an adult movie, absolutely to the lions.

You really believe it was used to “watch the footy”?

Absolutely, or it was his kids watching YouTube, or something...I couldn't keep up with the every changing excuse.

Here’s a true story, as we are past the lagershed

I was once in a Luxor hotel researching some ancient flints and I got bored and lonely in my hotel room. I had an iPad with me - probably iPad 1 it was so early - and I realised I had a wavering bit of signal. Just enough to watch porn. Proto 3G?

But massively expensive. £29 for 3MB etc

I warned myself - right, 2 minutes, Kleenex, finished

About five hours later I energetically culminated and looked in horror at my data usage. Gigabytes on gigabytes. I realised I’d probably spent £5k or £10k on a single wank

And this was before the days of my affluence

No way I could pay a £10k phone bill so the next day I concocted a plan. I decided to go to the police and report that my iPad had been stolen. So I’d have a get-out when Vodafone came asking for their £10,000

I went into the Luxor police station and reported my iPad was stolen but as soon as I began making my report I realised this didn’t make sense - how and where was it stolen? Just that? In my hotel room? - and if they got suspicious they might find I still had my iPad…. so I changed my story to “I loaned my iPad to a dubious person and I think they might have misused it while I was asleep” and at this point the Egyptian policeman was essentially laughing in my face and asking his colleagues to come and listen to the most insane load of bullshit ever heard in the Upper Nile so I pretended I felt suddenly unwell and fled back to my hotel with this bankrupting wank-bill looming

When I got back to England my monthly Vodafone bill arrived. £32. For some reason my MASSIVE DATA USAGE never registered

Andy_JS said:

dixiedean said:

Stuartinromford said:

Meanwhile, the Mail are probably more realistic in their takeaway from the manifesto launch:

RISHI: DON'T GIVE LABOUR A BLANK CHEQUE

https://www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk/

Does anyone under 40 know what a cheque is?
Let alone a blank one.

My dad's business still uses cheques to pay other businesses, although the number of such transactions has gone down recently.

Benpointer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nigelb said:

Wut ?

Krishnan Guru-Murthy crucifies Mel Stride on abolishing National Insurance for self employed and on pension

KGM, "You're getting rid of class 4 National Insurance contributions for the self employed"

MS, "Yes"

KGM, "So how do self employed qualify for a state pension?"

MS, "You can still have a system where you have nil rate National Insurance and have that as a contribution to state pension"

KGM, "So self employed people will just get a state pension for free now?"

MS, "Well, they will make their contribution to the economy in the normal way"
https://x.com/implausibleblog/status/1800623762657640905

KGM is talking as much bollock as MS. Class 4 NI is only one part of it. Earn £50k and you still paying NI and remember thresholds are being frozen for several years.

Not many people are running their own businesses for anything length of time for the luxury of earning < £50k a year (gig workers aside).

How would self-employed people qualify years for the State Pension?

rcs1000 said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Benpointer said:

dixiedean said:

Cookie said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

MattW said:

RochdalePioneers said:

PedestrianRock said:

@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.

Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…

EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…

Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .

Matt/Rochdale

It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.

Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?

Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?

I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.

Good evening

I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result

Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson

If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.

I don't think, realistically, the 66-1 on @RochdalePioneers is particularly exciting value. Nevertheless, I've wagered £1.50 on him so I can join in the fun on election night. Come on Rochdale!

Be really good to keep a PB representative in HofC streak going after the demise of tissueprice and Stewart Jackson.
Snowflake will be back.

Who's Snowflake?

She was a very active poster here for some time. She was then and still is an MP but she never identified herself here by her real name so her anonymity should be respected.

Ex MP Louise Mensch always posted under her real name, as does Nick Palmer of course.

Aaron Bell originally posted under his own name, but changed it to Tissue Price when he stood for Parliament. This is perfectly understandable, but was hardly a secret. I'm hoping we'll see a lot more of him now that he has left the House. Apart from anything else he gave some cracking tips.

Mike Smithson once told me that a lot of MPs follow this site, and some post occasionally under pseudonyms. i can believe this easily, but Mike has always been the soul of discretion, and to the best of my knowledge none were ever outed.

The original Jack_W's identity is also a very poorly kept secret.

Fairliered said:

Leon said:

kyf_100 said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

Do we now have two winters per year? If Sunak was hoping for some feel-good weather, the elements are not on his side.

I’ve told you. London is now Anchorage. It’s why I’ve emigrated

I've spent a lot of time today looking at digital nomad visas and wondering if it's possible to keep on touring the world on a shoestring budget.

Has to be better than waiting around in a chilly flat in London for the three or so days a month of freelance work to dribble in.

I actually have my electric blanket out tonight. In June.

British weather is now unacceptable

You can seriously have a blast wandering the world. I am. Take Ukraine. Ok there’s a war on but if you’re careful it’s not THAT dangerous - it is also a lot more interesting than sitting at home in a bed sit in Balham. Or Bootle

Everything is insanely cheap. I just had a really good Italian meal - two large aperol spritz, inventive bruschetta, seafood fettuccine, glass of good white, at a restaurant in the most fashionable bit of Odessa - beautiful Odessa - £15

If you want good borscht and beer you can eat really well for £5. A bus from Kyiv to Odessa - £13

And thanks to our digital world you can stay in touch with everyone. I had a long WhatsApp chat with my brother in Peru then a group chat with friends and now I’m hanging out on PB

You no longer need to be anywhere in particular. If you can work from home you can work on the road where food is cheap, the sun shines, you see endlessly interesting things, and tax is zero

We could have had that if we hadn’t had 14 years of a grifter friendly Tory government.

dixiedean said:

rottenborough said:

Neil Henderson
@hendopolis
·
7m
I: Labour promises £12 an hour to care workers #TomorrowsPapersToday

Why just care workers?

Andy_JS said:

MikeL said:

LORD ASHCROFT:

Lab 43 (-4)
Con 21 (-2)
Ref 15 (+4)
LD 7 (+1)
Grn 7 (+1)

https://x.com/LordAshcroft/status/1800638670128787571

Same types of movements we've seen elsewhere.

dixiedean said:

MikeL said:

LORD ASHCROFT:

Lab 43 (-4)
Con 21 (-2)
Ref 15 (+4)
LD 7 (+1)
Grn 7 (+1)

https://x.com/LordAshcroft/status/1800638670128787571

Evidence beginning to tentatively build that the Labour vote is falling. As was widely anticipated.
But, that the Tory share is also on the slide.
Not expected.