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Punters unmoved by YouGov showing Labour dropping into the 30s – politicalbetting.com

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited June 2024

    Apologies for my ignorance but what is an 'October Surprise'? What is the derivation?
    Traditionally in US elections both sides have done their dirt digging on the opposition candidates. Because the GE is held in Nov, they release their killer story to the media with about 3 weeks to go i.e. in October.

    Trump, grab'em by the... tape, Hunter Biden laptop etc.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    That all for all the claims of being a socialist, he actually has a shrine to Margaret Thatcher in his garden shed....
    He wipes himself down after exercise with his 'Maggie Rag'
  • mwadams said:

    Are there many? I thought the Tories had run out of money?
    I was getting a load of them at the start of the campaign. Mostly videos of Mr Sunak walking towards the camera in slow motion to an inspiring musical backdrop.

    I wasn't convinced
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255

    Traditionally in US elections both sides have done their dirt digging on the opposition candidates. Because the GE is held in Nov, they release their killer story to the media with about 3 weeks to go i.e. in October.

    Trump, grab'em by the... tape, Hunter Biden laptop etc.
    Cheers sir.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,795

    Am I supposed to know who this person is and why they are influential?
    Ed Davey. He’s leader of the LibDems.
    But not yet influential, particularly.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,730

    As PBers await with partially-baited breath the thrilling conclusion of determinant Count 19 for Dublin Euro 2024, note that 35.3% of accumulated Clare Daly vote was untransferable.

    Not surprising given that there's a limit to how many candidates voter are willing or able to list in order of preference.

    You'd imagine a lot of votes were 1 Smith 2 Daly - or vice versa. And then terminating before reaching anything right of Trotskyism.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    What could possibly be the 'killer' story?

    Starmer is a Russian agent or is a convicted kiddy fiddler now living under a new name is about all I can think of.
    Starmer's tool-making father borrowed a tool-making tool 40 years ago, and never returned it to the fellow tool-maker from whom he borrowed the tool-making tool.

    What a tool!
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Nigelb said:

    Ed Davey. He’s leader of the LibDems.
    But not yet influential, particularly.
    That's Sir Not Yet Influential, to you...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited June 2024

    I have no idea what the story might be.Some hints without allegations might be helpful.

    After Johnson's behaviour it is not easy to see any scandal having too much traction unless it involves children or kittens.
    The issue politicians run into is hypocrisy and not being authentic. Boris got away with his behaviour because everybody knew for a long time and he didn't moralise about it. Major government ran into issues because they went all back to basics, then found ministers were up to shagging around.

    Sunak has run into trouble because they try the I'm just like you spin e.g I'll let the train take the strain, but we know it normally goes about on the old helicopter and he gets on the train with his very expensive rucksack. Or I am going to take the old Ford Focus for a filler up, how does it work again?
  • Also, if you have a genuine killer story that will stand up you run it before someone else does.
    Of course if you have a load of BS that you know won't stand up (ahem - see also currygate and Raynergate) you leave it till as close to polling day as possible
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,222
    30s poll hypothesis: this is driven by the 7-way debate last week.

    RefUK is boosted slightly by Nigel Farage having a good debate, putting the Conservative case better than the Conservatives. Both main parties were hamstrung by their "lines to follow" diktats imo.

    Labour is being hurt by the £2,000 tax charge, and they seem to have decided to ignore it which is a mistake Mandelson has made in the past. John Prescott complained about the rationale that responding to attacks meant letting the Tories set the agenda, so they let any old rubbish slide. Of course, it could be a Starmaresque slow burner like when he trapped Boris on Partygate.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,795
    Quincel said:

    That's Sir Not Yet Influential, to you...
    Man of the people - he’s doesn’t insist on the title.
  • Can't help feeling that Starmer has been quite fortunate that Israel/Gaza seems to have calmed down
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,522
    edited June 2024
    The Conservatives’ “campaign” is the worst I’ve ever witnessed. Sunak would be over-promoted even as a borough councillor. Labour ran a much better campaign in 1983.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited June 2024

    Can't help feeling that Starmer has been quite fortunate that Israel/Gaza seems to have calmed down

    I am not sure the daring hostage rescue that lead to fire fight, calling in airstrikes and 100s dead is "calming down". Seeing the footage it was anything but calm.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Thinking about the polling, im expecting a small recovery in Tory share by July 4th from panicking older voters terrified of a complete political landscape reset
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,077

    Can't help feeling that Starmer has been quite fortunate that Israel/Gaza seems to have calmed down

    Calmed down?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,570

    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    4h
    I think midnight tomorrow is halfway through the election campaign
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,222

    Long time ago too.

    We've had Boris since then, the actual PM, and his shagging around isn't what brought him down.

    p.s. Paul Staines is scurrilous and a hypocrite. For years he ran a 'Tory Totty' column, some of whom were barely legal. Regardless of one's politics he shouldn't be given the time of day.
    What was the last Westminster sex scandal that actually changed anything? Cecil Parkinson 40 years ago?
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,263

    Thinking about the polling, im expecting a small recovery in Tory share by July 4th from panicking older voters terrified of a complete political landscape reset

    When most of them are going to vote on 20th/21st June that's going to be hard.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,795
    The “live” coverage of the Hunter Biden verdict is risible.
    It’s simply not a developing news story. He’s guilty; that’s it.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Can't help feeling that Starmer has been quite fortunate that Israel/Gaza seems to have calmed down

    His lukewarm Palestine promise Thursday will bring it to the fore again
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,644
    edited June 2024
    Sean_F said:

    The Conservatives’ “campaign” is the worst I’ve ever witnessed. Sunak would be over-promoted even as a borough councillor. Labour ran a much better campaign in 1983.

    Wow. That bar was set pretty high.

    You sure, Sean?

  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,681

    Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…

    EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
    Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield :smiley: .
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,522
    Farooq said:

    Media fatigue. Nobody cares about dead civilians for very long.
    The LAOC are a very thin and flimsy shield.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,263

    What was the last Westminster sex scandal that actually changed anything? Cecil Parkinson 40 years ago?
    Stephen Milligan? Derailed Back 2 Basics almost at birth.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited June 2024

    What was the last Westminster sex scandal that actually changed anything? Cecil Parkinson 40 years ago?
    How can you forget Tractor-gate.

    More seriously, all the me-too stuff was pretty damaging for some (and forced some really onto the back foot even when they hadn't really done anything wrong) and it keeps popping up every so often making it sound like HoC is a pretty toxic place to work. The recent text-gate stuff is quite damaging as well, that a politician is comprised into giving away numbers to people.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688

    What was the last Westminster sex scandal that actually changed anything? Cecil Parkinson 40 years ago?
    Chris Huhne's adultery.

    He eventually had to resign from the cabinet and ended up in prison.
  • What was the last Westminster sex scandal that actually changed anything? Cecil Parkinson 40 years ago?
    Pincher?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    The fall out from this disaster as all those involved at the highest levels throw shit all around when they have lost will keep Tim Shipman in royalties for years.

    So he's had Fall Out, All Out War, Out, and No Way Out.

    Presumably this one will be titled "Get the F*ck Out"
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,922

    What was the last Westminster sex scandal that actually changed anything? Cecil Parkinson 40 years ago?
    Chris Pincher, though not directly.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    DM_Andy said:

    When most of them are going to vote on 20th/21st June that's going to be hard.

    Some of the 20% postals will, sure, many will wait, many more vote on the 4th
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited June 2024

    Still amuses me that Boris Johnson had to resign because of somebody else's sex scandal
    And parties he didn't attend or organise. The rip roaring total piss up, breaking the kids swing, karoke in the basement stuff, and the one he (and Sunak) got done for having a pissy lager by some limp sandwiches with half a dozen people.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,116
    Sean_F said:

    The Conservatives’ “campaign” is the worst I’ve ever witnessed. Sunak would be over-promoted even as a borough councillor. Labour ran a much better campaign in 1983.

    Sunak's manifesto launch today was better than May's in 2017 to be fair
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    His lukewarm Palestine promise Thursday will bring it to the fore again
    It will have the effect of shooting a pellet gun at a bullet train - technically it has an effect, but it will be negligible on the direction of travel.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,989

    In Dublin Euro 2024, Green Ciaran Cuffe has been excluded, his 43,582 votes (first pref + transfers over 17 counts) are now being redistributed (source RTE)

    BARRY ANDREWS, FF + 1931 = 69110
    REGINA DOHERTY, FG + 2196 = 68725
    LYNN BOYLAN, SF + 11338 = 64586
    NIALL BOYLAN, II + 4558 = 49490
    AODHÁN Ó RÍORDÁIN, LAB + 5001 = 46912

    SSI - note that 10.5% of Clare Daly's accumulated vote went for Ind right Boylan, versus 26% for SFer Boylan; further note that Labour got 11.5% of CD transfers compared to only 7.3% for the Green, one reason he got excluded in count 18.

    WIth five candidates still standing for four seats (think I got that right now) current count is for all the marbles.

    Andrews, Doherty an SFer Boylan clearly elected. Question is, who's on 4th?

    Wither the 43,582 transfers now at play? my guess is that Lab O' Riordain is about to get a healthy boost from Cuffe's accumulated transfers, and pool vault over Ind for Ire Boylan.

    Make it stop! Just rent the STV counting machines from the Scottish local councils and get it over with!
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Nigelb said:

    The “live” coverage of the Hunter Biden verdict is risible.
    It’s simply not a developing news story. He’s guilty; that’s it.

    In the great American tradition of Presidential fucked-up relatives. Remember Roger Clinton? Billy Carter? Ed Nixon? Milton Eisenhower?

    (Just kidding about Milton, he was hardly a fuck-up. Ike should have listened to him more often.)
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Chris said:

    Chris Pincher, though not directly.
    Neil porno Parrish
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,116

    Don't forget HYUFD wanted to take another £3000 from us before the manifesto. Lord knows how much it would be now.

    All to give a tax cut to landlords apparently
    Only if they sell to tenants
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,771
    DM_Andy said:

    Dan Hodges tweets a lot but in this case it's unfalsifiable, who's to say that November or January wouldn't have been worse?

    The remaining hypothetical is "what if they had slipped another 3-4% in the polls and then run a campaign as bad as this (surely a certainty?) in November."
  • johntjohnt Posts: 166
    https://x.com/lucyjmcdaid/status/1800564594379043296?s=61&t=vVP0aHQo5wPbgNBDzoHSGA

    Former minister quits disabled sailing association in protest at Ed Davey being on one of their boats.

    Not sure this is a good look. Firstly it just draws attention to Ed Davey and what he has been doing, but it questions the true commitment of Foster to the cause, and how much he was just involved for political reasons.

    There must be many, many cases of politicians visiting charities at the moment and charities will be keen to use the chance to influence. The protest just comes across to me as petulant.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,654
    Not exactly on-topic, but sad news :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c06618ln7xlo

    The Selecter frontman Gaps Hendrickson dies

    Arthur ‘Gaps’ Hendrickson, frontman of 2-Tone band The Selecter, has died.

    In a post on X, a spokesperson for the Coventry band announced the vocalist had died after a short illness.

    "The world has lost a 2-Tone original, a talented musician and an absolute gentlemen," the post said.

    The Selecter, which also featured lead singer Pauline Black OBE and drummer Charley 'Aitch' Bembridge, was formed in 1979.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    When we start to list them, there has been rather a lot of sex scandals that have ended MPs careers in recent years.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,116
    Sean_F said:

    The polls from Focaldata and Savanta point to a terrible Conservative defeat, but not a terminal event, as 1924 was for the Liberals.

    The French general election, OTOH, may be the most consequential in a major power in decades.

    Unless RN win a landslide I doubt it, the US presidential election is much more significant than the French legislative election
  • How can you forget Tractor-gate.

    More seriously, all the me-too stuff was pretty damaging for some (and forced some really onto the back foot even when they hadn't really done anything wrong) and it keeps popping up every so often making it sound like HoC is a pretty toxic place to work. The recent text-gate stuff is quite damaging as well, that a politician is comprised into giving away numbers to people.
    I guess that Parrish was a nobody and Wragg was a nobody who had announced his retirement. They were embarrassing matters but relatively low level. Whereas Parkinson was a potential next PM at the time. Meanwhile, Pincher was important not in itself but because of Johnson's handling of the matter.

    I do think setting Parkinson as a benchmark is a bit much, though. There have been plenty of reasonably consequential sex scandals since.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited June 2024

    I guess that Parrish was a nobody and Wragg was a nobody who had announced his retirement. They were embarrassing matters but relatively low level. Whereas Parkinson was a potential next PM at the time. Meanwhile, Pincher was important not in itself but because of Johnson's handling of the matter.

    I do think setting Parkinson as a benchmark is a bit much, though. There have been plenty of reasonably consequential sex scandals since.
    How did we all forget Handy Hancock...

    He clearly fancied himself for leader at one point. Save the world from COVID, now elect me.

    One thing I really disliked about that scandal is the media clearly suspected / knew and were taking photos of him playing with his kids on his days off with nudge nudge headlines.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,077

    I’ve been pondering defence expenditure. Both big parties want to increase it. Can we somehow get more socioeconomic benefit from it, other than just greater employment in shipyards, military recruitment etc? Obviously we are not going to have the SBS running breakfast clubs in Hackney, but you get my drift (maybe)?
    To answer your genuine question, I don’t know very much about defence costings. Other people on the site can give you a very knowledgable answer I suspect.

    I do know that - my picture of the day speaks for itself - Team Sunak not putting the rise to 2.5% in budget, through OBR nor even remotely properly funding it in the manifesto, is gaslighting everyone who believes it should be 2.5%.

    I do also know when Sunak announced National Service a few weeks back (everyone now knows they can get out of, by saying they’ve an interview to go to) the Tories tried to point to how many other countries already do it, and quickly ridiculed by military and boffins pointing out ours is a professional army ready and so often deployed, not a conscript army.

    I also sort of know Defence Budgets and procurements struggle because the big expensive items dominates the money, leaving tin pot money to achieve gold plated dreams on everything else. The expensive things are satellites and insurance for satellites? Wasn’t there talk about separating nuclear from the defence budget as that one cost hurts the rest of the budgets too?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,116
    edited June 2024

    Evening all! Sunak polling well below Liz Truss:


    Tory and Labour gap significantly lower than it was before Truss resigned as PM on that chart, Tory losses to Reform may be higher but Tory losses to Labour are much worse in terms of Tory seat losses
  • The talk of 'Rochdale' when referring to RochdalePioneers had me briefly confused.

    I can confirm that the LDs are not going to be anywhere near winning the constituency of Rochdale again for a very very long time.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,339
    ...

    I guess that Parrish was a nobody and Wragg was a nobody who had announced his retirement. They were embarrassing matters but relatively low level. Whereas Parkinson was a potential next PM at the time. Meanwhile, Pincher was important not in itself but because of Johnson's handling of the matter.

    I do think setting Parkinson as a benchmark is a bit much, though. There have been plenty of reasonably consequential sex scandals since.
    Keith Vaz. And now he's back like a bad penny.

    Ron Davies. Things got so bad for him he became a Plaid Cymru councillor for Caerphilly.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited June 2024
    It's the year of elections, and according to the Chinese, the Year of the Dragon.

    This is supposed to be the luckiest kind of year.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,795

    In the great American tradition of Presidential fucked-up relatives. Remember Roger Clinton? Billy Carter? Ed Nixon? Milton Eisenhower?

    (Just kidding about Milton, he was hardly a fuck-up. Ike should have listened to him more often.)
    Oh, it’s a story.
    But the prominence it’s being given is more than a bit silly.

    Actually Reagan’s daughter had some sensible things to say about him.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    HYUFD said:

    Tory and Labour gap significantly lower than it was before Truss resigned
    I'm sure that will make being on 100 seats much more bearable.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited June 2024
    The list of sex scandal MPs is getting longer than the Lib Dem wish list manifesto....
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,375
    kle4 said:

    So he's had Fall Out, All Out War, Out, and No Way Out.

    Presumably this one will be titled "Get the F*ck Out"
    I think it's due to just be called "Out".

    Which is economical.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,031

    Matt/Rochdale

    It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.

    Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?

    Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?

    I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
    Good evening

    I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result

    Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
  • johnt said:

    https://x.com/lucyjmcdaid/status/1800564594379043296?s=61&t=vVP0aHQo5wPbgNBDzoHSGA

    Former minister quits disabled sailing association in protest at Ed Davey being on one of their boats.

    Not sure this is a good look. Firstly it just draws attention to Ed Davey and what he has been doing, but it questions the true commitment of Foster to the cause, and how much he was just involved for political reasons.

    There must be many, many cases of politicians visiting charities at the moment and charities will be keen to use the chance to influence. The protest just comes across to me as petulant.

    Yes, it's just bonkers. You ignore your opponent with this sort of thing, or say, "Nice to see Ed supporting a charity I've actively supported for many, many years - hope to see him again when there's no election on".
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,795

    Matt/Rochdale

    It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.

    Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?

    Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?

    I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
    You speak for many of us.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,339

    Good evening

    I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result

    Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
    If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,654

    Good evening

    I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result

    Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
    Given how much she supposedly despises him, that'd tickle me a little.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited June 2024
    Not an MP, but Prof Lockdown Legover also rather had his career trashed by media story. Like Hancock, it is as much the hypocrisy as anything else.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,116
    edited June 2024
    kle4 said:

    I'm sure that will make being on 100 seats much more bearable.
    Compared to the less than 20 seats the Truss led Tories were heading for before she resigned, yes
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    Any live data on electoral registrations? I seem to remember being able to see it in 17 and 19. Would be interesting to compare, thinking about turnout bets. My hypothesis being there is less urgency to register if you think it’s a foregone conclusion.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Make it stop! Just rent the STV counting machines from the Scottish local councils and get it over with!
    They used machines for on Irish general election around turn of 20th>21st century. The Irish hated them. Because they were used to drawn-out election counts, with time to absorb the ebb & flow & ups & downs of each until the final clubhouse turn. Instead, bllliippppp . . . and here's your election.

    In one notable instance, televised around the nation, at a Dublin count a leading politico was standing for re-election. Just before announcing the results of the machine count(s), the returning officer gathered the candidates and gave them the results.

    HOWEVER, in the rush and under new schedule, the losing TD misunderstood what she'd been told . . . and was caught unawares when her defeat was declared. She burst into tears, live on TV.

    Result was a flush of anger among the Irish, including many who were NOT fans of the lady or her politics. They reacted on a personal level, mad that she'd been (apparently) blind-sided and humiliated. AND their anger was directed at the quick & speedy machine count. Thus the machines were ditched and old-school paper-ballot hand-counting re-introduced.
  • If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.
    Well, we won't as they'll see their nomination rights fall through the floor as with Lib Dems post-2015. And, as you say, there will be enormous competition for those slots from ex-MPs, including senior figures.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited June 2024
    Its funny how some people can survive story about an affair, but running up a big bill on your iPad to watch the footy or your husband watching an adult movie, absolutely to the lions.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    HYUFD said:

    Compared to the less than 10 seats the Truss led Tories were heading for before she resigned, yes
    People don't compare their terrible reality with an even more terrible potential reality and exude gratitude.

    That's one reason the party are struggling!
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,263

    Yes, it's just bonkers. You ignore your opponent with this sort of thing, or say, "Nice to see Ed supporting a charity I've actively supported for many, many years - hope to see him again when there's no election on".
    That might be Kevin Foster's Rupert Allison/Restaurant moment of this campaign, Torbay is on a knife edge already.

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,375
    DM_Andy said:

    Stephen Milligan? Derailed Back 2 Basics almost at birth.

    Not just that.

    There's a bit in the Brandreth diaries where he describes a first meeting of a "thoughtful new Conservative MP" supper club. Him, Seb Coe, Stephen Milligan and Judith Chaplin.

    Of them, two had hopelessly marginal seats and lost in 1997. Milligan died with an orange in his mouth and Chaplin in an emergency operation.

    And in part, that's why the Conservatives veered so far to the right after 1997, with the consequences we see around us now.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,339

    Not an MP, but Prof Lockdown Legover also rather had his career trashed by media story. Like Hancock, it is as much the hypocrisy as anything else.

    I don't think it was bonking Scotland and Arsenal goalkeeper Bob Wilson's relative, but doing it during the COVID pandemic when the rules stated a 2 metre distance between work colleagues that got Mancock sacked.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405

    Not just that.

    There's a bit in the Brandreth diaries where he describes a first meeting of a "thoughtful new Conservative MP" supper club. Him, Seb Coe, Stephen Milligan and Judith Chaplin.

    Of them, two had hopelessly marginal seats and lost in 1997. Milligan died with an orange in his mouth and Chaplin in an emergency operation.

    And in part, that's why the Conservatives veered so far to the right after 1997, with the consequences we see around us now.
    That's a fascinating story.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    WHY not take some of many thousands of pounds the next HMG is gonna extract, and beat 'em to the punch by investing GENEROUSLY in the PB GE BOTTLE BUS & FLYING FEA CIRCUS?

    Imagine the thrill of travelling to distant Wales for impromptu drag-races with Big_G? Or rolling from Aberdeenshire North to Moray East, and back again, in the palatial comfort of a re-conditioned Boris Bus!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited June 2024

    I don't think it was bonking Scotland and Arsenal goalkeeper Bob Wilson's relative, but doing it during the COVID pandemic when the rules stated a 2 metre distance between work colleagues that got Mancock sacked.
    I always thought the pearl clutching about 2m distance between people working in the government at that time was particularly nonsensical. They are in the office 6-7 days a week for stupid number of hours, they all got it and it made f##k all difference e.g. all the stuff about but but but they had a quiz once and some people left their desks. It is quite different from you pop to the shop and we want to try and minimise the spread.

    My issue was more being preoccupied with your mistress rather than doing the job. The thought they kept 2m apart at all times is for the birds, it would have been impossible, how do you read documents etc.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 857
    edited June 2024

    I have no idea what the story might be.Some hints without allegations might be helpful.

    After Johnson's behaviour it is not easy to see any scandal having too much traction unless it involves children or kittens.
    You don't have to be a genius to see what's being insinuated with these two articles:

    https://order-order.com/2024/06/05/unreported-affair-hacks-are-gossiping-about-privately/

    https://order-order.com/2024/06/11/telegraph-starmers-wife-being-kept-off-campaign-trail/

    (and in the first article the identity of the public figure probably explains a bit of the quiet as well...)
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405
    johnt said:

    https://x.com/lucyjmcdaid/status/1800564594379043296?s=61&t=vVP0aHQo5wPbgNBDzoHSGA

    Former minister quits disabled sailing association in protest at Ed Davey being on one of their boats.

    Not sure this is a good look. Firstly it just draws attention to Ed Davey and what he has been doing, but it questions the true commitment of Foster to the cause, and how much he was just involved for political reasons.

    There must be many, many cases of politicians visiting charities at the moment and charities will be keen to use the chance to influence. The protest just comes across to me as petulant.

    It's a completely bizarre response.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,522

    Not just that.

    There's a bit in the Brandreth diaries where he describes a first meeting of a "thoughtful new Conservative MP" supper club. Him, Seb Coe, Stephen Milligan and Judith Chaplin.

    Of them, two had hopelessly marginal seats and lost in 1997. Milligan died with an orange in his mouth and Chaplin in an emergency operation.

    And in part, that's why the Conservatives veered so far to the right after 1997, with the consequences we see around us now.
    Milligan was a true Orangeman.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,077

    30s poll hypothesis: this is driven by the 7-way debate last week.

    RefUK is boosted slightly by Nigel Farage having a good debate, putting the Conservative case better than the Conservatives. Both main parties were hamstrung by their "lines to follow" diktats imo.

    Labour is being hurt by the £2,000 tax charge, and they seem to have decided to ignore it which is a mistake Mandelson has made in the past. John Prescott complained about the rationale that responding to attacks meant letting the Tories set the agenda, so they let any old rubbish slide. Of course, it could be a Starmaresque slow burner like when he trapped Boris on Partygate.

    my take is Labour is NOT being hurt by the 2K Lie - it fell apart not just in 24hrs, but flimsy and dishonest way it was worked out led the main news bulletins, came across as a lie in Fridays debate, dismantled again in Sunak’s interview yesterday, is red meat to interviewer every time it’s mentioned - the cut through is as “the lie”, the Tory’s only persist with it because they are trapped, the only alternative is conspicuously not to mention it, which will draw hoops of laughter.

    How many of the things that make up the 2K Lie will even be in the Labour manifesto? If the Tories had waited for the actual manifesto items and pulled the same trick, it might have worked better.
  • Big_IanBig_Ian Posts: 67
    eek said:

    If this was the campaign they ran in the Autumn they would be starting from a worse position. The only upside is that Rishi wouldn't have left DD to do an rumoured to be utter appalling ITV interview.
    When do we get to see this interview?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754

    You don't have to be a genius to see what's being insinuated with these two articles:

    https://order-order.com/2024/06/05/unreported-affair-hacks-are-gossiping-about-privately/

    https://order-order.com/2024/06/11/telegraph-starmers-wife-being-kept-off-campaign-trail/
    Oh, fine. Nothing will come of that. No hypocrisy angle.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,795
    edited June 2024

    To answer your genuine question, I don’t know very much about defence costings. Other people on the site can give you a very knowledgable answer I suspect.

    I do know that - my picture of the day speaks for itself - Team Sunak not putting the rise to 2.5% in budget, through OBR nor even remotely properly funding it in the manifesto, is gaslighting everyone who believes it should be 2.5%.

    I do also know when Sunak announced National Service a few weeks back (everyone now knows they can get out of, by saying they’ve an interview to go to) the Tories tried to point to how many other countries already do it, and quickly ridiculed by military and boffins pointing out ours is a professional army ready and so often deployed, not a conscript army.

    I also sort of know Defence Budgets and procurements struggle because the big expensive items dominates the money, leaving tin pot money to achieve gold plated dreams on everything else. The expensive things are satellites and insurance for satellites? Wasn’t there talk about separating nuclear from the defence budget as that one cost hurts the rest of the budgets too?
    All you need to know is that defence procurement has been broken for years, and we spend the majority of the money on stuff that’s obsolete.

    There’s a tiny chance that a new government might change that, and zero chance the current Tories would.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,266

    I don't think it was bonking Scotland and Arsenal goalkeeper Bob Wilson's relative, but doing it during the COVID pandemic when the rules stated a 2 metre distance between work colleagues that got Mancock sacked.
    As I read "bonking Scotland and Arsenal goalkeeper Bob Wilson" I thought to myself, 'well, I didn't know that about him'!

    Although given he had three children it is also true!
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,568
    edited June 2024
    So, France.

    I read up and their Assembly elections are quite electorally interesting in that they are similar but different to the presidential election.

    That is, they are done in 2 rounds, but where a run off is needed, any candidate getting 12.5% of the total electorate, so turnout and vote share dependent, gets in the run off.

    It's not front and centre in the write ups of previous elections, but I guess that, differently to the presidential election, there end up being a lot of 3 way (or more) contests in the second round, and the balance of party strengths and the number of 3 ways happening has a big effect on the result -mainly 3(+) ways suits RN better, mainly 2 ways suits Macron. And it looks a pretty 3 way tussle this go.

    (Don't know why they don't just go STV on the same constituencies tbh, for this type of contest certainly.)

    Is that a fair assessment and has 2-way / 3-way influenced the course of past elections?

    (I'm avoiding ribald analogies here)
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    Nigelb said:

    All you need to know is that defence procurement has been broken for years, and we spend the majority of the money on stuff that’s obsolete.

    There’s a tiny chance that a new government might change that, and zero chance the current Tories would.
    Over-simplistic rubbish. Makes you sound like that idiot Lewis Page.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    Pro_Rata said:

    So, France.

    I read up and their Assembly elections are quite electorally interesting in that they are similar but different to the presidential election.

    That is, they are done in 2 rounds, but where a run off is needed, any candidate getting 12.5% of the total electoral, so turnout and vote share dependent, gets in the run off.

    It's not front and centre in the write ups of previous elections, but I guess that, differently to the presidential election, there end up being a lot of 3 way (or more) contests in the second round, and the balance of party strengths and the number of 3 ways happening has a big effect on the result -mainly 3(+) ways suits RN better, mainly 2 ways suits Macron. And it looks a pretty 3 way tussle this go.

    (Don't know why they don't just go STV on the same constituencies tbh, for this type of contest certainly.)

    Is that a fair assessment and has 2-way / 3-way influenced the course of past elections?

    (I'm avoiding ribald analogies here)

    Its very French, why just have one day of elections, when you can have two.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 602
    If I were Sunak I would begin to worry that centrist tories are jumping ship to lib dems to ensure they become opposition and that their vote isn't wasted. That is the other story to complement reform crossing over... what happens this coming week could decide if it is Canada 93 or not.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    DM_Andy said:

    Shock News: Poll showing near 300 seat Labour majority doesn't bring down the market's view on the chances of Labour majority.

    Seriously though NOM is now worth a punt, as Laura K keeps reminding us, there's a long way to go.

    I have just taken more at 21 because it might be easy to trade
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,795
    edited June 2024
    biggles said:

    Over-simplistic rubbish. Makes you sound like that idiot Lewis Page.
    Over simplistic perhaps, but what’s your counter argument ?

    I’d say claiming that defence procurement isn’t broken is also talking rubbish.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,031
    Big_Ian said:

    When do we get to see this interview?
    I do not know, but I do know it is Sunak v Starmer live on Sky tomorrow evening with Sky drawing Starmer to go first meaning Sunak will have the last say
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,339

    You don't have to be a genius to see what's being insinuated with these two articles:

    https://order-order.com/2024/06/05/unreported-affair-hacks-are-gossiping-about-privately/

    https://order-order.com/2024/06/11/telegraph-starmers-wife-being-kept-off-campaign-trail/

    (and in the first article the identity of the public figure probably explains a bit of the quiet as well...)
    Even if true, after Johnson does anyone care?

    If I was asked such a question with nothing to hide, I would tell Morgan/ Robinson/Ferrari to mind their own f*****' business.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,522

    If I were Sunak I would begin to worry that centrist tories are jumping ship to lib dems to ensure they become opposition and that their vote isn't wasted. That is the other story to complement reform crossing over... what happens this coming week could decide if it is Canada 93 or not.

    Why would centrist Tories support a party to the left of Labour?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,116
    edited June 2024

    If I were Sunak I would begin to worry that centrist tories are jumping ship to lib dems to ensure they become opposition and that their vote isn't wasted. That is the other story to complement reform crossing over... what happens this coming week could decide if it is Canada 93 or not.

    Except on tonight's Yougov it is Labour voters going LD, hence Labour down now even below Corbyn 2017 levels and Starmer Labour a full 5% below the 43% for Blair's New Labour in 1997.

    Tories meanwhile still ahead of Reform even with Yougov
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 857

    Even if true, after Johnson does anyone care?

    If I was asked such a question with nothing to hide, I would tell Morgan/ Robinson/Ferrari to mind their own f*****' business.
    Exactly. Which is probably why the tories haven't used it yet. But I can see the thinking in rolling the dice as they have nothing to lose at this point. If they do, then they'll discover that they did, in fact, have something to lose...
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,077

    You don't have to be a genius to see what's being insinuated with these two articles:

    https://order-order.com/2024/06/05/unreported-affair-hacks-are-gossiping-about-privately/

    https://order-order.com/2024/06/11/telegraph-starmers-wife-being-kept-off-campaign-trail/

    (and in the first article the identity of the public figure probably explains a bit of the quiet as well...)
    Sunak’s wife was front and centre of the manifesto launch today.

    Pretty rubbish Americanisation of British politics by the Conservative Party and anyone in Labour actually wanting partners and families centre stage in the campaign and in UK politics. We don’t want a First Partner in our system. Didn’t Blair get a poll bounce when he had a baby in office? Madness. 🤮
This discussion has been closed.