NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
23 days left but I and many others will be voting next week when our postal votes arrive.
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
It would be nice not to have to put the effort into not taking Staines seriously.
And the point about personal life scandals is that you can often get away with them if the public already thinks you're basically OK. If anything, they can reassure voters that the target is a man of flesh, blood and passion.
Remember the attempts to make an issue out of Paddy Pantsdown?
Paddy was a perfect example of how to handle a scandal. No obfuscation, no trying to excuse what he had done. Just a straight up mea culpa and apology and move on. Take the flak, take the criticism and own it.
Long time ago too.
We've had Boris since then, the actual PM, and his shagging around isn't what brought him down.
p.s. Paul Staines is scurrilous and a hypocrite. For years he ran a 'Tory Totty' column, some of whom were barely legal. Regardless of one's politics he shouldn't be given the time of day.
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
I am not sure the Tory leaning media heart is even in it. There are plenty of awkward comments that Labour figures, including Starmer, have made in the past. In previous election, they would be running them left, right and centre, instead they are minor stories tucked away on the websites. While the Speccy seems very keen to boot Sunak up the arse.
It's pretty obvious what the story is. If the tories are stupid enough to use it then it'll backfire within a couple of days. All the mysterious prominent senior Labour figure with legal training has to say is that his private life remains private. And meanwhile a mysterious junior Labour figure will leak far more damaging nepotism allegations about equally senior (in the near past) Tory figures and the electorate will be reminded what this election is about.
I have no idea what the story might be.Some hints without allegations might be helpful.
After Johnson's behaviour it is not easy to see any scandal having too much traction unless it involves children or kittens.
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
I am not sure the Tory leaning media heart is even in it. There are plenty of awkward comments that Labour figures, including Starmer, have made in the past. In previous election, they would be running them left, right and centre, instead they are minor stories tucked away on the websites. While the Speccy seems very keen to boot Sunak up the arse.
Apologies for my ignorance but what is an 'October Surprise'? What is the derivation?
Traditionally in US elections both sides have done their dirt digging on the opposition candidates. Because the GE is held in Nov, they release their killer story to the media with about 3 weeks to go i.e. in October.
Trump, grab'em by the... tape, Hunter Biden laptop etc.
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
Also, if you have a genuine killer story that will stand up you run it before someone else does.
No you send it just at the right time. 6 weeks out from the GE is too early. e.g. Hunter Laptop story was run 3 weeks before polling day.
What could possibly be the 'killer' story?
Starmer is a Russian agent or is a convicted kiddy fiddler now living under a new name is about all I can think of.
He likes Garibaldi biscuits and the 'music' of Gilbert O'Sullivan
That all for all the claims of being a socialist, he actually has a shrine to Margaret Thatcher in his garden shed....
He wipes himself down after exercise with his 'Maggie Rag'
One thing I will say for this election, it has shown that the privacy policies I have set on social media are working. Not one single political advert seen. Makes a nice change.
Are there many? I thought the Tories had run out of money?
I was getting a load of them at the start of the campaign. Mostly videos of Mr Sunak walking towards the camera in slow motion to an inspiring musical backdrop.
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
I am not sure the Tory leaning media heart is even in it. There are plenty of awkward comments that Labour figures, including Starmer, have made in the past. In previous election, they would be running them left, right and centre, instead they are minor stories tucked away on the websites. While the Speccy seems very keen to boot Sunak up the arse.
Apologies for my ignorance but what is an 'October Surprise'? What is the derivation?
Traditionally in US elections both sides have done their dirt digging on the opposition candidates. Because the GE is held in Nov, they release their killer story to the media with about 3 weeks to go i.e. in October.
Trump, grab'em by the... tape, Hunter Biden laptop etc.
As PBers await with partially-baited breath the thrilling conclusion of determinant Count 19 for Dublin Euro 2024, note that 35.3% of accumulated Clare Daly vote was untransferable.
Not surprising given that there's a limit to how many candidates voter are willing or able to list in order of preference.
You'd imagine a lot of votes were 1 Smith 2 Daly - or vice versa. And then terminating before reaching anything right of Trotskyism.
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
Also, if you have a genuine killer story that will stand up you run it before someone else does.
No you send it just at the right time. 6 weeks out from the GE is too early. e.g. Hunter Laptop story was run 3 weeks before polling day.
What could possibly be the 'killer' story?
Starmer is a Russian agent or is a convicted kiddy fiddler now living under a new name is about all I can think of.
Starmer's tool-making father borrowed a tool-making tool 40 years ago, and never returned it to the fellow tool-maker from whom he borrowed the tool-making tool.
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
I am not sure the Tory leaning media heart is even in it. There are plenty of awkward comments that Labour figures, including Starmer, have made in the past. In previous election, they would be running them left, right and centre, instead they are minor stories tucked away on the websites. While the Speccy seems very keen to boot Sunak up the arse.
It's pretty obvious what the story is. If the tories are stupid enough to use it then it'll backfire within a couple of days. All the mysterious prominent senior Labour figure with legal training has to say is that his private life remains private. And meanwhile a mysterious junior Labour figure will leak far more damaging nepotism allegations about equally senior (in the near past) Tory figures and the electorate will be reminded what this election is about.
I have no idea what the story might be.Some hints without allegations might be helpful.
After Johnson's behaviour it is not easy to see any scandal having too much traction unless it involves children or kittens.
The issue politicians run into is hypocrisy and not being authentic. Boris got away with his behaviour because everybody knew for a long time and he didn't moralise about it. Major government ran into issues because they went all back to basics, then found ministers were up to shagging around.
Sunak has run into trouble because they try the I'm just like you spin e.g I'll let the train take the strain, but we know it normally goes about on the old helicopter and he gets on the train with his very expensive rucksack. Or I am going to take the old Ford Focus for a filler up, how does it work again?
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
Also, if you have a genuine killer story that will stand up you run it before someone else does.
Of course if you have a load of BS that you know won't stand up (ahem - see also currygate and Raynergate) you leave it till as close to polling day as possible
30s poll hypothesis: this is driven by the 7-way debate last week.
RefUK is boosted slightly by Nigel Farage having a good debate, putting the Conservative case better than the Conservatives. Both main parties were hamstrung by their "lines to follow" diktats imo.
Labour is being hurt by the £2,000 tax charge, and they seem to have decided to ignore it which is a mistake Mandelson has made in the past. John Prescott complained about the rationale that responding to attacks meant letting the Tories set the agenda, so they let any old rubbish slide. Of course, it could be a Starmaresque slow burner like when he trapped Boris on Partygate.
The Conservatives’ “campaign” is the worst I’ve ever witnessed. Sunak would be over-promoted even as a borough councillor. Labour ran a much better campaign in 1983.
Can't help feeling that Starmer has been quite fortunate that Israel/Gaza seems to have calmed down
I am not sure the daring hostage rescue that lead to fire fight, calling in airstrikes and 100s dead is "calming down". Seeing the footage it was anything but calm.
Thinking about the polling, im expecting a small recovery in Tory share by July 4th from panicking older voters terrified of a complete political landscape reset
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
It would be nice not to have to put the effort into not taking Staines seriously.
And the point about personal life scandals is that you can often get away with them if the public already thinks you're basically OK. If anything, they can reassure voters that the target is a man of flesh, blood and passion.
Remember the attempts to make an issue out of Paddy Pantsdown?
Paddy was a perfect example of how to handle a scandal. No obfuscation, no trying to excuse what he had done. Just a straight up mea culpa and apology and move on. Take the flak, take the criticism and own it.
Long time ago too.
We've had Boris since then, the actual PM, and his shagging around isn't what brought him down.
p.s. Paul Staines is scurrilous and a hypocrite. For years he ran a 'Tory Totty' column, some of whom were barely legal. Regardless of one's politics he shouldn't be given the time of day.
What was the last Westminster sex scandal that actually changed anything? Cecil Parkinson 40 years ago?
Thinking about the polling, im expecting a small recovery in Tory share by July 4th from panicking older voters terrified of a complete political landscape reset
When most of them are going to vote on 20th/21st June that's going to be hard.
Can't help feeling that Starmer has been quite fortunate that Israel/Gaza seems to have calmed down
I am not sure the daring hostage rescue that lead to fire fight, calling in airstrikes and 100s dead is "calming down". Seeing the footage it was anything but calm.
Media fatigue. Nobody cares about dead civilians for very long.
The Conservatives’ “campaign” is the worst I’ve ever witnessed. Sunak would be over-promoted even as a borough councillor. Labour ran a much better campaign in 1983.
Sunak is rubbish, but the team around him are even worse. I have seen more organisation in an under 8's football team.
The Conservatives’ “campaign” is the worst I’ve ever witnessed. Sunak would be over-promoted even as a borough councillor. Labour ran a much better campaign in 1983.
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Can't help feeling that Starmer has been quite fortunate that Israel/Gaza seems to have calmed down
I am not sure the daring hostage rescue that lead to fire fight, calling in airstrikes and 100s dead is "calming down". Seeing the footage it was anything but calm.
Media fatigue. Nobody cares about dead civilians for very long.
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
It would be nice not to have to put the effort into not taking Staines seriously.
And the point about personal life scandals is that you can often get away with them if the public already thinks you're basically OK. If anything, they can reassure voters that the target is a man of flesh, blood and passion.
Remember the attempts to make an issue out of Paddy Pantsdown?
Paddy was a perfect example of how to handle a scandal. No obfuscation, no trying to excuse what he had done. Just a straight up mea culpa and apology and move on. Take the flak, take the criticism and own it.
Long time ago too.
We've had Boris since then, the actual PM, and his shagging around isn't what brought him down.
p.s. Paul Staines is scurrilous and a hypocrite. For years he ran a 'Tory Totty' column, some of whom were barely legal. Regardless of one's politics he shouldn't be given the time of day.
What was the last Westminster sex scandal that actually changed anything? Cecil Parkinson 40 years ago?
Stephen Milligan? Derailed Back 2 Basics almost at birth.
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
It would be nice not to have to put the effort into not taking Staines seriously.
And the point about personal life scandals is that you can often get away with them if the public already thinks you're basically OK. If anything, they can reassure voters that the target is a man of flesh, blood and passion.
Remember the attempts to make an issue out of Paddy Pantsdown?
Paddy was a perfect example of how to handle a scandal. No obfuscation, no trying to excuse what he had done. Just a straight up mea culpa and apology and move on. Take the flak, take the criticism and own it.
Long time ago too.
We've had Boris since then, the actual PM, and his shagging around isn't what brought him down.
p.s. Paul Staines is scurrilous and a hypocrite. For years he ran a 'Tory Totty' column, some of whom were barely legal. Regardless of one's politics he shouldn't be given the time of day.
What was the last Westminster sex scandal that actually changed anything? Cecil Parkinson 40 years ago?
How can you forget Tractor-gate.
More seriously, all the me-too stuff was pretty damaging for some (and forced some really onto the back foot even when they hadn't really done anything wrong) and it keeps popping up every so often making it sound like HoC is a pretty toxic place to work. The recent text-gate stuff is quite damaging as well, that a politician is comprised into giving away numbers to people.
The Conservatives’ “campaign” is the worst I’ve ever witnessed. Sunak would be over-promoted even as a borough councillor. Labour ran a much better campaign in 1983.
Sunak is rubbish, but the team around him are even worse. I have seen more organisation in an under 8's football team.
The fall out from this disaster as all those involved at the highest levels throw shit all around when they have lost will keep Tim Shipman in royalties for years.
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
It would be nice not to have to put the effort into not taking Staines seriously.
And the point about personal life scandals is that you can often get away with them if the public already thinks you're basically OK. If anything, they can reassure voters that the target is a man of flesh, blood and passion.
Remember the attempts to make an issue out of Paddy Pantsdown?
Paddy was a perfect example of how to handle a scandal. No obfuscation, no trying to excuse what he had done. Just a straight up mea culpa and apology and move on. Take the flak, take the criticism and own it.
Long time ago too.
We've had Boris since then, the actual PM, and his shagging around isn't what brought him down.
p.s. Paul Staines is scurrilous and a hypocrite. For years he ran a 'Tory Totty' column, some of whom were barely legal. Regardless of one's politics he shouldn't be given the time of day.
What was the last Westminster sex scandal that actually changed anything? Cecil Parkinson 40 years ago?
Chris Huhne's adultery.
He eventually had to resign from the cabinet and ended up in prison.
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
It would be nice not to have to put the effort into not taking Staines seriously.
And the point about personal life scandals is that you can often get away with them if the public already thinks you're basically OK. If anything, they can reassure voters that the target is a man of flesh, blood and passion.
Remember the attempts to make an issue out of Paddy Pantsdown?
Paddy was a perfect example of how to handle a scandal. No obfuscation, no trying to excuse what he had done. Just a straight up mea culpa and apology and move on. Take the flak, take the criticism and own it.
Long time ago too.
We've had Boris since then, the actual PM, and his shagging around isn't what brought him down.
p.s. Paul Staines is scurrilous and a hypocrite. For years he ran a 'Tory Totty' column, some of whom were barely legal. Regardless of one's politics he shouldn't be given the time of day.
What was the last Westminster sex scandal that actually changed anything? Cecil Parkinson 40 years ago?
The Conservatives’ “campaign” is the worst I’ve ever witnessed. Sunak would be over-promoted even as a borough councillor. Labour ran a much better campaign in 1983.
Sunak is rubbish, but the team around him are even worse. I have seen more organisation in an under 8's football team.
The fall out from this disaster as all those involved at the highest levels throw shit all around when they have lost will keep Tim Shipman in royalties for years.
So he's had Fall Out, All Out War, Out, and No Way Out.
Presumably this one will be titled "Get the F*ck Out"
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
It would be nice not to have to put the effort into not taking Staines seriously.
And the point about personal life scandals is that you can often get away with them if the public already thinks you're basically OK. If anything, they can reassure voters that the target is a man of flesh, blood and passion.
Remember the attempts to make an issue out of Paddy Pantsdown?
Paddy was a perfect example of how to handle a scandal. No obfuscation, no trying to excuse what he had done. Just a straight up mea culpa and apology and move on. Take the flak, take the criticism and own it.
Long time ago too.
We've had Boris since then, the actual PM, and his shagging around isn't what brought him down.
p.s. Paul Staines is scurrilous and a hypocrite. For years he ran a 'Tory Totty' column, some of whom were barely legal. Regardless of one's politics he shouldn't be given the time of day.
What was the last Westminster sex scandal that actually changed anything? Cecil Parkinson 40 years ago?
Thinking about the polling, im expecting a small recovery in Tory share by July 4th from panicking older voters terrified of a complete political landscape reset
When most of them are going to vote on 20th/21st June that's going to be hard.
Some of the 20% postals will, sure, many will wait, many more vote on the 4th
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
It would be nice not to have to put the effort into not taking Staines seriously.
And the point about personal life scandals is that you can often get away with them if the public already thinks you're basically OK. If anything, they can reassure voters that the target is a man of flesh, blood and passion.
Remember the attempts to make an issue out of Paddy Pantsdown?
Paddy was a perfect example of how to handle a scandal. No obfuscation, no trying to excuse what he had done. Just a straight up mea culpa and apology and move on. Take the flak, take the criticism and own it.
Long time ago too.
We've had Boris since then, the actual PM, and his shagging around isn't what brought him down.
p.s. Paul Staines is scurrilous and a hypocrite. For years he ran a 'Tory Totty' column, some of whom were barely legal. Regardless of one's politics he shouldn't be given the time of day.
What was the last Westminster sex scandal that actually changed anything? Cecil Parkinson 40 years ago?
Pincher?
Still amuses me that Boris Johnson had to resign because of somebody else's sex scandal
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
It would be nice not to have to put the effort into not taking Staines seriously.
And the point about personal life scandals is that you can often get away with them if the public already thinks you're basically OK. If anything, they can reassure voters that the target is a man of flesh, blood and passion.
Remember the attempts to make an issue out of Paddy Pantsdown?
Paddy was a perfect example of how to handle a scandal. No obfuscation, no trying to excuse what he had done. Just a straight up mea culpa and apology and move on. Take the flak, take the criticism and own it.
Long time ago too.
We've had Boris since then, the actual PM, and his shagging around isn't what brought him down.
p.s. Paul Staines is scurrilous and a hypocrite. For years he ran a 'Tory Totty' column, some of whom were barely legal. Regardless of one's politics he shouldn't be given the time of day.
What was the last Westminster sex scandal that actually changed anything? Cecil Parkinson 40 years ago?
Pincher?
Still amuses me that Boris Johnson had to resign because of somebody else's sex scandal
And parties he didn't attend or organise. The rip roaring total piss up, breaking the kids swing, karoke in the basement stuff, and the one he (and Sunak) got done for having a pissy lager by some limp sandwiches with half a dozen people.
The Conservatives’ “campaign” is the worst I’ve ever witnessed. Sunak would be over-promoted even as a borough councillor. Labour ran a much better campaign in 1983.
Sunak's manifesto launch today was better than May's in 2017 to be fair
Can't help feeling that Starmer has been quite fortunate that Israel/Gaza seems to have calmed down
His lukewarm Palestine promise Thursday will bring it to the fore again
It will have the effect of shooting a pellet gun at a bullet train - technically it has an effect, but it will be negligible on the direction of travel.
In Dublin Euro 2024, Green Ciaran Cuffe has been excluded, his 43,582 votes (first pref + transfers over 17 counts) are now being redistributed (source RTE)
BARRY ANDREWS, FF + 1931 = 69110 REGINA DOHERTY, FG + 2196 = 68725 LYNN BOYLAN, SF + 11338 = 64586 NIALL BOYLAN, II + 4558 = 49490 AODHÁN Ó RÍORDÁIN, LAB + 5001 = 46912
SSI - note that 10.5% of Clare Daly's accumulated vote went for Ind right Boylan, versus 26% for SFer Boylan; further note that Labour got 11.5% of CD transfers compared to only 7.3% for the Green, one reason he got excluded in count 18.
WIth five candidates still standing for four seats (think I got that right now) current count is for all the marbles.
Andrews, Doherty an SFer Boylan clearly elected. Question is, who's on 4th?
Wither the 43,582 transfers now at play? my guess is that Lab O' Riordain is about to get a healthy boost from Cuffe's accumulated transfers, and pool vault over Ind for Ire Boylan.
Make it stop! Just rent the STV counting machines from the Scottish local councils and get it over with!
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
It would be nice not to have to put the effort into not taking Staines seriously.
And the point about personal life scandals is that you can often get away with them if the public already thinks you're basically OK. If anything, they can reassure voters that the target is a man of flesh, blood and passion.
Remember the attempts to make an issue out of Paddy Pantsdown?
Paddy was a perfect example of how to handle a scandal. No obfuscation, no trying to excuse what he had done. Just a straight up mea culpa and apology and move on. Take the flak, take the criticism and own it.
Long time ago too.
We've had Boris since then, the actual PM, and his shagging around isn't what brought him down.
p.s. Paul Staines is scurrilous and a hypocrite. For years he ran a 'Tory Totty' column, some of whom were barely legal. Regardless of one's politics he shouldn't be given the time of day.
What was the last Westminster sex scandal that actually changed anything? Cecil Parkinson 40 years ago?
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
The Conservatives’ “campaign” is the worst I’ve ever witnessed. Sunak would be over-promoted even as a borough councillor. Labour ran a much better campaign in 1983.
Sunak is rubbish, but the team around him are even worse. I have seen more organisation in an under 8's football team.
The fall out from this disaster as all those involved at the highest levels throw shit all around when they have lost will keep Tim Shipman in royalties for years.
Peter Bone. You know, Sex Goran Eriksson. He was alleged to have left his midfield exposed.
The LDs clearly got a bounce from their manifesto, mainly at Labour's expense based on the Yougov poll.
I suspect the Tories may get a few younger and middle aged voters back from Labour after their manifesto today. Not much in it not already mentioned but the NI cut and abolition for the self employed and stamp duty cut for first time buyers clearly targeted at that demographic
HY - nobody believes a word you lot say. Cut taxes? You’ve raised them by £13k. Cut child poverty? It’s increased! You could promise free ice cream and people would doubt it.
Sorry. It’s done.
Don't forget HYUFD wanted to take another £3000 from us before the manifesto. Lord knows how much it would be now.
Things are getting worse, not better. Hard to see where good news will come from to turn things round so they can recover to disastrous up from extinction.
Dan Hodges tweeted almost daily for months that waiting any longer would make Tory defeat worse but i suspect he hadn't factored in them running the worst campaign since Michael Foot.
Dan Hodges tweets a lot but in this case it's unfalsifiable, who's to say that November or January wouldn't have been worse?
The remaining hypothetical is "what if they had slipped another 3-4% in the polls and then run a campaign as bad as this (surely a certainty?) in November."
Former minister quits disabled sailing association in protest at Ed Davey being on one of their boats.
Not sure this is a good look. Firstly it just draws attention to Ed Davey and what he has been doing, but it questions the true commitment of Foster to the cause, and how much he was just involved for political reasons.
There must be many, many cases of politicians visiting charities at the moment and charities will be keen to use the chance to influence. The protest just comes across to me as petulant.
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
It would be nice not to have to put the effort into not taking Staines seriously.
And the point about personal life scandals is that you can often get away with them if the public already thinks you're basically OK. If anything, they can reassure voters that the target is a man of flesh, blood and passion.
Remember the attempts to make an issue out of Paddy Pantsdown?
Paddy was a perfect example of how to handle a scandal. No obfuscation, no trying to excuse what he had done. Just a straight up mea culpa and apology and move on. Take the flak, take the criticism and own it.
Long time ago too.
We've had Boris since then, the actual PM, and his shagging around isn't what brought him down.
p.s. Paul Staines is scurrilous and a hypocrite. For years he ran a 'Tory Totty' column, some of whom were barely legal. Regardless of one's politics he shouldn't be given the time of day.
What was the last Westminster sex scandal that actually changed anything? Cecil Parkinson 40 years ago?
How can you forget Tractor-gate.
More seriously, all the me-too stuff was pretty damaging for some (and forced some really onto the back foot even when they hadn't really done anything wrong) and it keeps popping up every so often making it sound like HoC is a pretty toxic place to work. The recent text-gate stuff is quite damaging as well, that a politician is comprised into giving away numbers to people.
I guess that Parrish was a nobody and Wragg was a nobody who had announced his retirement. They were embarrassing matters but relatively low level. Whereas Parkinson was a potential next PM at the time. Meanwhile, Pincher was important not in itself but because of Johnson's handling of the matter.
I do think setting Parkinson as a benchmark is a bit much, though. There have been plenty of reasonably consequential sex scandals since.
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
It would be nice not to have to put the effort into not taking Staines seriously.
And the point about personal life scandals is that you can often get away with them if the public already thinks you're basically OK. If anything, they can reassure voters that the target is a man of flesh, blood and passion.
Remember the attempts to make an issue out of Paddy Pantsdown?
Paddy was a perfect example of how to handle a scandal. No obfuscation, no trying to excuse what he had done. Just a straight up mea culpa and apology and move on. Take the flak, take the criticism and own it.
Long time ago too.
We've had Boris since then, the actual PM, and his shagging around isn't what brought him down.
p.s. Paul Staines is scurrilous and a hypocrite. For years he ran a 'Tory Totty' column, some of whom were barely legal. Regardless of one's politics he shouldn't be given the time of day.
What was the last Westminster sex scandal that actually changed anything? Cecil Parkinson 40 years ago?
How can you forget Tractor-gate.
More seriously, all the me-too stuff was pretty damaging for some (and forced some really onto the back foot even when they hadn't really done anything wrong) and it keeps popping up every so often making it sound like HoC is a pretty toxic place to work. The recent text-gate stuff is quite damaging as well, that a politician is comprised into giving away numbers to people.
I guess that Parrish was a nobody and Wragg was a nobody who had announced his retirement. They were embarrassing matters but relatively low level. Whereas Parkinson was a potential next PM at the time. Meanwhile, Pincher was important not in itself but because of Johnson's handling of the matter.
I do think setting Parkinson as a benchmark is a bit much, though. There have been plenty of reasonably consequential sex scandals since.
How did we all forget Handy Hancock...
He clearly fancied himself for leader at one point. Save the world from COVID, now elect me.
One thing I really disliked about that scandal is the media clearly suspected / knew and were taking photos of him playing with his kids on his days off with nudge nudge headlines.
This chart actually shows what the biggest cost will be in the Tory manifesto. As I pointed out on PB last night, the problem with the Tory manifesto is the promised increase in defence spending.
It’s not the policy of increasing defence spending to 2.5% that is the problem - for an interventionist country like ours it seems sound to increase, looking to the unstable international future of the world with more messy collapse of the Russian and US as superpowers, and the rise of EU and China. After/in addition to Ukraine, Putin will invade Moldova, and China not just certain to invade Taiwan, but claim the whole of the South China Sea.
The problem is the one political Party promising to raise defence spending to 2.5% has not realistically explained how they will fund it. In fact, this year, they have gone out of their way to avoid explaining how they will fund it - by-passed putting this increase in defence spending through their last budget* and OBR as urged by senior MPs in their party who, unlike Sunak and Hunt, genuinely care this increase is needed, so needed it funded to be for real. Instead it was delayed to be announced a few weeks later.
This means the Conservative Party has NO policy to increase defence spending to the level seen in this picture, just a gimmick that blows a huge hole into the manifesto below the cost balance waterline. If you cannot say exactly how you are funding this policy without economists laughing straight back into your face, you don’t have a realistic policy, just a gimmicky pledge - a promise not worth the paper it’s written on.
I’ve been pondering defence expenditure. Both big parties want to increase it. Can we somehow get more socioeconomic benefit from it, other than just greater employment in shipyards, military recruitment etc? Obviously we are not going to have the SBS running breakfast clubs in Hackney, but you get my drift (maybe)?
To answer your genuine question, I don’t know very much about defence costings. Other people on the site can give you a very knowledgable answer I suspect.
I do know that - my picture of the day speaks for itself - Team Sunak not putting the rise to 2.5% in budget, through OBR nor even remotely properly funding it in the manifesto, is gaslighting everyone who believes it should be 2.5%.
I do also know when Sunak announced National Service a few weeks back (everyone now knows they can get out of, by saying they’ve an interview to go to) the Tories tried to point to how many other countries already do it, and quickly ridiculed by military and boffins pointing out ours is a professional army ready and so often deployed, not a conscript army.
I also sort of know Defence Budgets and procurements struggle because the big expensive items dominates the money, leaving tin pot money to achieve gold plated dreams on everything else. The expensive things are satellites and insurance for satellites? Wasn’t there talk about separating nuclear from the defence budget as that one cost hurts the rest of the budgets too?
Tory and Labour gap significantly lower than it was before Truss resigned as PM on that chart, Tory losses to Reform may be higher but Tory losses to Labour are much worse in terms of Tory seat losses
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
It would be nice not to have to put the effort into not taking Staines seriously.
And the point about personal life scandals is that you can often get away with them if the public already thinks you're basically OK. If anything, they can reassure voters that the target is a man of flesh, blood and passion.
Remember the attempts to make an issue out of Paddy Pantsdown?
Paddy was a perfect example of how to handle a scandal. No obfuscation, no trying to excuse what he had done. Just a straight up mea culpa and apology and move on. Take the flak, take the criticism and own it.
Long time ago too.
We've had Boris since then, the actual PM, and his shagging around isn't what brought him down.
p.s. Paul Staines is scurrilous and a hypocrite. For years he ran a 'Tory Totty' column, some of whom were barely legal. Regardless of one's politics he shouldn't be given the time of day.
What was the last Westminster sex scandal that actually changed anything? Cecil Parkinson 40 years ago?
How can you forget Tractor-gate.
More seriously, all the me-too stuff was pretty damaging for some (and forced some really onto the back foot even when they hadn't really done anything wrong) and it keeps popping up every so often making it sound like HoC is a pretty toxic place to work. The recent text-gate stuff is quite damaging as well, that a politician is comprised into giving away numbers to people.
I guess that Parrish was a nobody and Wragg was a nobody who had announced his retirement. They were embarrassing matters but relatively low level. Whereas Parkinson was a potential next PM at the time. Meanwhile, Pincher was important not in itself but because of Johnson's handling of the matter.
I do think setting Parkinson as a benchmark is a bit much, though. There have been plenty of reasonably consequential sex scandals since.
Keith Vaz. And now he's back like a bad penny.
Ron Davies. Things got so bad for him he became a Plaid Cymru councillor for Caerphilly.
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Good evening
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
The Conservatives’ “campaign” is the worst I’ve ever witnessed. Sunak would be over-promoted even as a borough councillor. Labour ran a much better campaign in 1983.
Sunak is rubbish, but the team around him are even worse. I have seen more organisation in an under 8's football team.
The fall out from this disaster as all those involved at the highest levels throw shit all around when they have lost will keep Tim Shipman in royalties for years.
So he's had Fall Out, All Out War, Out, and No Way Out.
Presumably this one will be titled "Get the F*ck Out"
Former minister quits disabled sailing association in protest at Ed Davey being on one of their boats.
Not sure this is a good look. Firstly it just draws attention to Ed Davey and what he has been doing, but it questions the true commitment of Foster to the cause, and how much he was just involved for political reasons.
There must be many, many cases of politicians visiting charities at the moment and charities will be keen to use the chance to influence. The protest just comes across to me as petulant.
Kevin Foster is an idiot. And now, the plank has walked because of Davey locking up the sailors' vote.
Former minister quits disabled sailing association in protest at Ed Davey being on one of their boats.
Not sure this is a good look. Firstly it just draws attention to Ed Davey and what he has been doing, but it questions the true commitment of Foster to the cause, and how much he was just involved for political reasons.
There must be many, many cases of politicians visiting charities at the moment and charities will be keen to use the chance to influence. The protest just comes across to me as petulant.
Yes, it's just bonkers. You ignore your opponent with this sort of thing, or say, "Nice to see Ed supporting a charity I've actively supported for many, many years - hope to see him again when there's no election on".
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Good evening
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Good evening
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
Given how much she supposedly despises him, that'd tickle me a little.
Any live data on electoral registrations? I seem to remember being able to see it in 17 and 19. Would be interesting to compare, thinking about turnout bets. My hypothesis being there is less urgency to register if you think it’s a foregone conclusion.
In Dublin Euro 2024, Green Ciaran Cuffe has been excluded, his 43,582 votes (first pref + transfers over 17 counts) are now being redistributed (source RTE)
BARRY ANDREWS, FF + 1931 = 69110 REGINA DOHERTY, FG + 2196 = 68725 LYNN BOYLAN, SF + 11338 = 64586 NIALL BOYLAN, II + 4558 = 49490 AODHÁN Ó RÍORDÁIN, LAB + 5001 = 46912
SSI - note that 10.5% of Clare Daly's accumulated vote went for Ind right Boylan, versus 26% for SFer Boylan; further note that Labour got 11.5% of CD transfers compared to only 7.3% for the Green, one reason he got excluded in count 18.
WIth five candidates still standing for four seats (think I got that right now) current count is for all the marbles.
Andrews, Doherty an SFer Boylan clearly elected. Question is, who's on 4th?
Wither the 43,582 transfers now at play? my guess is that Lab O' Riordain is about to get a healthy boost from Cuffe's accumulated transfers, and pool vault over Ind for Ire Boylan.
Make it stop! Just rent the STV counting machines from the Scottish local councils and get it over with!
They used machines for on Irish general election around turn of 20th>21st century. The Irish hated them. Because they were used to drawn-out election counts, with time to absorb the ebb & flow & ups & downs of each until the final clubhouse turn. Instead, bllliippppp . . . and here's your election.
In one notable instance, televised around the nation, at a Dublin count a leading politico was standing for re-election. Just before announcing the results of the machine count(s), the returning officer gathered the candidates and gave them the results.
HOWEVER, in the rush and under new schedule, the losing TD misunderstood what she'd been told . . . and was caught unawares when her defeat was declared. She burst into tears, live on TV.
Result was a flush of anger among the Irish, including many who were NOT fans of the lady or her politics. They reacted on a personal level, mad that she'd been (apparently) blind-sided and humiliated. AND their anger was directed at the quick & speedy machine count. Thus the machines were ditched and old-school paper-ballot hand-counting re-introduced.
@RochdalePioneers 66/1 shot is making me think that in an election with weird 3 and 4 way battles in some seats, there might be value in betting on a bunch of reasonable long shots and hoping for maximum chaos... FPTP's idiosyncrasies could see you win some.
Oh believe me, I’m genuinely considering that I could win. Probably won’t. But in a crazy election there will be some crazy results. And my seat is crazy central in Scotland…
EDIT - we do have councillors here if that adds any context. We’re not coming from nowhere. Councillors in Central Buchan and Fraserburgh and Peterhead and briefly in Buckie (he resigned quickly) and I finished 3rd in a 3 seat ward (Troup - Macduff mainly) before losing in round 5 of voting having picked up transfer votes from everyone else including the Tories…
Wishing you success. From the Rational Refuge which is Ashfield .
Matt/Rochdale
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Good evening
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
If Tory seats tumble as projected we are going to need a bigger HoL.
Well, we won't as they'll see their nomination rights fall through the floor as with Lib Dems post-2015. And, as you say, there will be enormous competition for those slots from ex-MPs, including senior figures.
Its funny how some people can survive story about an affair, but running up a big bill on your iPad to watch the footy or your husband watching an adult movie, absolutely to the lions.
Former minister quits disabled sailing association in protest at Ed Davey being on one of their boats.
Not sure this is a good look. Firstly it just draws attention to Ed Davey and what he has been doing, but it questions the true commitment of Foster to the cause, and how much he was just involved for political reasons.
There must be many, many cases of politicians visiting charities at the moment and charities will be keen to use the chance to influence. The protest just comes across to me as petulant.
Yes, it's just bonkers. You ignore your opponent with this sort of thing, or say, "Nice to see Ed supporting a charity I've actively supported for many, many years - hope to see him again when there's no election on".
That might be Kevin Foster's Rupert Allison/Restaurant moment of this campaign, Torbay is on a knife edge already.
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
It would be nice not to have to put the effort into not taking Staines seriously.
And the point about personal life scandals is that you can often get away with them if the public already thinks you're basically OK. If anything, they can reassure voters that the target is a man of flesh, blood and passion.
Remember the attempts to make an issue out of Paddy Pantsdown?
Paddy was a perfect example of how to handle a scandal. No obfuscation, no trying to excuse what he had done. Just a straight up mea culpa and apology and move on. Take the flak, take the criticism and own it.
Long time ago too.
We've had Boris since then, the actual PM, and his shagging around isn't what brought him down.
p.s. Paul Staines is scurrilous and a hypocrite. For years he ran a 'Tory Totty' column, some of whom were barely legal. Regardless of one's politics he shouldn't be given the time of day.
What was the last Westminster sex scandal that actually changed anything? Cecil Parkinson 40 years ago?
Stephen Milligan? Derailed Back 2 Basics almost at birth.
Not just that.
There's a bit in the Brandreth diaries where he describes a first meeting of a "thoughtful new Conservative MP" supper club. Him, Seb Coe, Stephen Milligan and Judith Chaplin.
Of them, two had hopelessly marginal seats and lost in 1997. Milligan died with an orange in his mouth and Chaplin in an emergency operation.
And in part, that's why the Conservatives veered so far to the right after 1997, with the consequences we see around us now.
Not an MP, but Prof Lockdown Legover also rather had his career trashed by media story. Like Hancock, it is as much the hypocrisy as anything else.
I don't think it was bonking Scotland and Arsenal goalkeeper Bob Wilson's relative, but doing it during the COVID pandemic when the rules stated a 2 metre distance between work colleagues that got Mancock sacked.
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
It would be nice not to have to put the effort into not taking Staines seriously.
And the point about personal life scandals is that you can often get away with them if the public already thinks you're basically OK. If anything, they can reassure voters that the target is a man of flesh, blood and passion.
Remember the attempts to make an issue out of Paddy Pantsdown?
Paddy was a perfect example of how to handle a scandal. No obfuscation, no trying to excuse what he had done. Just a straight up mea culpa and apology and move on. Take the flak, take the criticism and own it.
Long time ago too.
We've had Boris since then, the actual PM, and his shagging around isn't what brought him down.
p.s. Paul Staines is scurrilous and a hypocrite. For years he ran a 'Tory Totty' column, some of whom were barely legal. Regardless of one's politics he shouldn't be given the time of day.
What was the last Westminster sex scandal that actually changed anything? Cecil Parkinson 40 years ago?
Stephen Milligan? Derailed Back 2 Basics almost at birth.
Not just that.
There's a bit in the Brandreth diaries where he describes a first meeting of a "thoughtful new Conservative MP" supper club. Him, Seb Coe, Stephen Milligan and Judith Chaplin.
Of them, two had hopelessly marginal seats and lost in 1997. Milligan died with an orange in his mouth and Chaplin in an emergency operation.
And in part, that's why the Conservatives veered so far to the right after 1997, with the consequences we see around us now.
WHY not take some of many thousands of pounds the next HMG is gonna extract, and beat 'em to the punch by investing GENEROUSLY in the PB GE BOTTLE BUS & FLYING FEA CIRCUS?
Imagine the thrill of travelling to distant Wales for impromptu drag-races with Big_G? Or rolling from Aberdeenshire North to Moray East, and back again, in the palatial comfort of a re-conditioned Boris Bus!
Not an MP, but Prof Lockdown Legover also rather had his career trashed by media story. Like Hancock, it is as much the hypocrisy as anything else.
I don't think it was bonking Scotland and Arsenal goalkeeper Bob Wilson's relative, but doing it during the COVID pandemic when the rules stated a 2 metre distance between work colleagues that got Mancock sacked.
I always thought the pearl clutching about 2m distance between people working in the government at that time was particularly nonsensical. They are in the office 6-7 days a week for stupid number of hours, they all got it and it made f##k all difference e.g. all the stuff about but but but they had a quiz once and some people left their desks. It is quite different from you pop to the shop and we want to try and minimise the spread.
My issue was more being preoccupied with your mistress rather than doing the job. The thought they kept 2m apart at all times is for the birds, it would have been impossible, how do you read documents etc.
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
I am not sure the Tory leaning media heart is even in it. There are plenty of awkward comments that Labour figures, including Starmer, have made in the past. In previous election, they would be running them left, right and centre, instead they are minor stories tucked away on the websites. While the Speccy seems very keen to boot Sunak up the arse.
It's pretty obvious what the story is. If the tories are stupid enough to use it then it'll backfire within a couple of days. All the mysterious prominent senior Labour figure with legal training has to say is that his private life remains private. And meanwhile a mysterious junior Labour figure will leak far more damaging nepotism allegations about equally senior (in the near past) Tory figures and the electorate will be reminded what this election is about.
I have no idea what the story might be.Some hints without allegations might be helpful.
After Johnson's behaviour it is not easy to see any scandal having too much traction unless it involves children or kittens.
You don't have to be a genius to see what's being insinuated with these two articles:
Former minister quits disabled sailing association in protest at Ed Davey being on one of their boats.
Not sure this is a good look. Firstly it just draws attention to Ed Davey and what he has been doing, but it questions the true commitment of Foster to the cause, and how much he was just involved for political reasons.
There must be many, many cases of politicians visiting charities at the moment and charities will be keen to use the chance to influence. The protest just comes across to me as petulant.
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
It would be nice not to have to put the effort into not taking Staines seriously.
And the point about personal life scandals is that you can often get away with them if the public already thinks you're basically OK. If anything, they can reassure voters that the target is a man of flesh, blood and passion.
Remember the attempts to make an issue out of Paddy Pantsdown?
Paddy was a perfect example of how to handle a scandal. No obfuscation, no trying to excuse what he had done. Just a straight up mea culpa and apology and move on. Take the flak, take the criticism and own it.
Long time ago too.
We've had Boris since then, the actual PM, and his shagging around isn't what brought him down.
p.s. Paul Staines is scurrilous and a hypocrite. For years he ran a 'Tory Totty' column, some of whom were barely legal. Regardless of one's politics he shouldn't be given the time of day.
What was the last Westminster sex scandal that actually changed anything? Cecil Parkinson 40 years ago?
Stephen Milligan? Derailed Back 2 Basics almost at birth.
Not just that.
There's a bit in the Brandreth diaries where he describes a first meeting of a "thoughtful new Conservative MP" supper club. Him, Seb Coe, Stephen Milligan and Judith Chaplin.
Of them, two had hopelessly marginal seats and lost in 1997. Milligan died with an orange in his mouth and Chaplin in an emergency operation.
And in part, that's why the Conservatives veered so far to the right after 1997, with the consequences we see around us now.
30s poll hypothesis: this is driven by the 7-way debate last week.
RefUK is boosted slightly by Nigel Farage having a good debate, putting the Conservative case better than the Conservatives. Both main parties were hamstrung by their "lines to follow" diktats imo.
Labour is being hurt by the £2,000 tax charge, and they seem to have decided to ignore it which is a mistake Mandelson has made in the past. John Prescott complained about the rationale that responding to attacks meant letting the Tories set the agenda, so they let any old rubbish slide. Of course, it could be a Starmaresque slow burner like when he trapped Boris on Partygate.
my take is Labour is NOT being hurt by the 2K Lie - it fell apart not just in 24hrs, but flimsy and dishonest way it was worked out led the main news bulletins, came across as a lie in Fridays debate, dismantled again in Sunak’s interview yesterday, is red meat to interviewer every time it’s mentioned - the cut through is as “the lie”, the Tory’s only persist with it because they are trapped, the only alternative is conspicuously not to mention it, which will draw hoops of laughter.
How many of the things that make up the 2K Lie will even be in the Labour manifesto? If the Tories had waited for the actual manifesto items and pulled the same trick, it might have worked better.
Things are getting worse, not better. Hard to see where good news will come from to turn things round so they can recover to disastrous up from extinction.
Dan Hodges tweeted almost daily for months that waiting any longer would make Tory defeat worse but i suspect he hadn't factored in them running the worst campaign since Michael Foot.
To be honest right now the Tory campaign looks worse than Foot's.
If this was the campaign they ran in the Autumn they would be starting from a worse position. The only upside is that Rishi wouldn't have left DD to do an rumoured to be utter appalling ITV interview.
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
I am not sure the Tory leaning media heart is even in it. There are plenty of awkward comments that Labour figures, including Starmer, have made in the past. In previous election, they would be running them left, right and centre, instead they are minor stories tucked away on the websites. While the Speccy seems very keen to boot Sunak up the arse.
It's pretty obvious what the story is. If the tories are stupid enough to use it then it'll backfire within a couple of days. All the mysterious prominent senior Labour figure with legal training has to say is that his private life remains private. And meanwhile a mysterious junior Labour figure will leak far more damaging nepotism allegations about equally senior (in the near past) Tory figures and the electorate will be reminded what this election is about.
I have no idea what the story might be.Some hints without allegations might be helpful.
After Johnson's behaviour it is not easy to see any scandal having too much traction unless it involves children or kittens.
You don't have to be a genius to see what's being insinuated with these two articles:
This chart actually shows what the biggest cost will be in the Tory manifesto. As I pointed out on PB last night, the problem with the Tory manifesto is the promised increase in defence spending.
It’s not the policy of increasing defence spending to 2.5% that is the problem - for an interventionist country like ours it seems sound to increase, looking to the unstable international future of the world with more messy collapse of the Russian and US as superpowers, and the rise of EU and China. After/in addition to Ukraine, Putin will invade Moldova, and China not just certain to invade Taiwan, but claim the whole of the South China Sea.
The problem is the one political Party promising to raise defence spending to 2.5% has not realistically explained how they will fund it. In fact, this year, they have gone out of their way to avoid explaining how they will fund it - by-passed putting this increase in defence spending through their last budget* and OBR as urged by senior MPs in their party who, unlike Sunak and Hunt, genuinely care this increase is needed, so needed it funded to be for real. Instead it was delayed to be announced a few weeks later.
This means the Conservative Party has NO policy to increase defence spending to the level seen in this picture, just a gimmick that blows a huge hole into the manifesto below the cost balance waterline. If you cannot say exactly how you are funding this policy without economists laughing straight back into your face, you don’t have a realistic policy, just a gimmicky pledge - a promise not worth the paper it’s written on.
I’ve been pondering defence expenditure. Both big parties want to increase it. Can we somehow get more socioeconomic benefit from it, other than just greater employment in shipyards, military recruitment etc? Obviously we are not going to have the SBS running breakfast clubs in Hackney, but you get my drift (maybe)?
To answer your genuine question, I don’t know very much about defence costings. Other people on the site can give you a very knowledgable answer I suspect.
I do know that - my picture of the day speaks for itself - Team Sunak not putting the rise to 2.5% in budget, through OBR nor even remotely properly funding it in the manifesto, is gaslighting everyone who believes it should be 2.5%.
I do also know when Sunak announced National Service a few weeks back (everyone now knows they can get out of, by saying they’ve an interview to go to) the Tories tried to point to how many other countries already do it, and quickly ridiculed by military and boffins pointing out ours is a professional army ready and so often deployed, not a conscript army.
I also sort of know Defence Budgets and procurements struggle because the big expensive items dominates the money, leaving tin pot money to achieve gold plated dreams on everything else. The expensive things are satellites and insurance for satellites? Wasn’t there talk about separating nuclear from the defence budget as that one cost hurts the rest of the budgets too?
All you need to know is that defence procurement has been broken for years, and we spend the majority of the money on stuff that’s obsolete.
There’s a tiny chance that a new government might change that, and zero chance the current Tories would.
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
It would be nice not to have to put the effort into not taking Staines seriously.
And the point about personal life scandals is that you can often get away with them if the public already thinks you're basically OK. If anything, they can reassure voters that the target is a man of flesh, blood and passion.
Remember the attempts to make an issue out of Paddy Pantsdown?
Paddy was a perfect example of how to handle a scandal. No obfuscation, no trying to excuse what he had done. Just a straight up mea culpa and apology and move on. Take the flak, take the criticism and own it.
Long time ago too.
We've had Boris since then, the actual PM, and his shagging around isn't what brought him down.
p.s. Paul Staines is scurrilous and a hypocrite. For years he ran a 'Tory Totty' column, some of whom were barely legal. Regardless of one's politics he shouldn't be given the time of day.
What was the last Westminster sex scandal that actually changed anything? Cecil Parkinson 40 years ago?
Stephen Milligan? Derailed Back 2 Basics almost at birth.
Not just that.
There's a bit in the Brandreth diaries where he describes a first meeting of a "thoughtful new Conservative MP" supper club. Him, Seb Coe, Stephen Milligan and Judith Chaplin.
Of them, two had hopelessly marginal seats and lost in 1997. Milligan died with an orange in his mouth and Chaplin in an emergency operation.
And in part, that's why the Conservatives veered so far to the right after 1997, with the consequences we see around us now.
Milligan was a genuinely capable moderate Tory. It's inevitable, but no less sad for it, that his sole space in political memory is dying in a bizarre masturbation incident.
It's the old joke about the farmer who's asked what people call him. "Twenty years planting hedges, and do they call me Bob the hedger? Do they bollocks. Thirty years baling hay, and do they call me Bob the baler? Do they bollocks. Just one fucking sheep..."
Not an MP, but Prof Lockdown Legover also rather had his career trashed by media story. Like Hancock, it is as much the hypocrisy as anything else.
I don't think it was bonking Scotland and Arsenal goalkeeper Bob Wilson's relative, but doing it during the COVID pandemic when the rules stated a 2 metre distance between work colleagues that got Mancock sacked.
As I read "bonking Scotland and Arsenal goalkeeper Bob Wilson" I thought to myself, 'well, I didn't know that about him'!
Although given he had three children it is also true!
I read up and their Assembly elections are quite electorally interesting in that they are similar but different to the presidential election.
That is, they are done in 2 rounds, but where a run off is needed, any candidate getting 12.5% of the total electorate, so turnout and vote share dependent, gets in the run off.
It's not front and centre in the write ups of previous elections, but I guess that, differently to the presidential election, there end up being a lot of 3 way (or more) contests in the second round, and the balance of party strengths and the number of 3 ways happening has a big effect on the result -mainly 3(+) ways suits RN better, mainly 2 ways suits Macron. And it looks a pretty 3 way tussle this go.
(Don't know why they don't just go STV on the same constituencies tbh, for this type of contest certainly.)
Is that a fair assessment and has 2-way / 3-way influenced the course of past elections?
This chart actually shows what the biggest cost will be in the Tory manifesto. As I pointed out on PB last night, the problem with the Tory manifesto is the promised increase in defence spending.
It’s not the policy of increasing defence spending to 2.5% that is the problem - for an interventionist country like ours it seems sound to increase, looking to the unstable international future of the world with more messy collapse of the Russian and US as superpowers, and the rise of EU and China. After/in addition to Ukraine, Putin will invade Moldova, and China not just certain to invade Taiwan, but claim the whole of the South China Sea.
The problem is the one political Party promising to raise defence spending to 2.5% has not realistically explained how they will fund it. In fact, this year, they have gone out of their way to avoid explaining how they will fund it - by-passed putting this increase in defence spending through their last budget* and OBR as urged by senior MPs in their party who, unlike Sunak and Hunt, genuinely care this increase is needed, so needed it funded to be for real. Instead it was delayed to be announced a few weeks later.
This means the Conservative Party has NO policy to increase defence spending to the level seen in this picture, just a gimmick that blows a huge hole into the manifesto below the cost balance waterline. If you cannot say exactly how you are funding this policy without economists laughing straight back into your face, you don’t have a realistic policy, just a gimmicky pledge - a promise not worth the paper it’s written on.
I’ve been pondering defence expenditure. Both big parties want to increase it. Can we somehow get more socioeconomic benefit from it, other than just greater employment in shipyards, military recruitment etc? Obviously we are not going to have the SBS running breakfast clubs in Hackney, but you get my drift (maybe)?
To answer your genuine question, I don’t know very much about defence costings. Other people on the site can give you a very knowledgable answer I suspect.
I do know that - my picture of the day speaks for itself - Team Sunak not putting the rise to 2.5% in budget, through OBR nor even remotely properly funding it in the manifesto, is gaslighting everyone who believes it should be 2.5%.
I do also know when Sunak announced National Service a few weeks back (everyone now knows they can get out of, by saying they’ve an interview to go to) the Tories tried to point to how many other countries already do it, and quickly ridiculed by military and boffins pointing out ours is a professional army ready and so often deployed, not a conscript army.
I also sort of know Defence Budgets and procurements struggle because the big expensive items dominates the money, leaving tin pot money to achieve gold plated dreams on everything else. The expensive things are satellites and insurance for satellites? Wasn’t there talk about separating nuclear from the defence budget as that one cost hurts the rest of the budgets too?
All you need to know is that defence procurement has been broken for years, and we spend the majority of the money on stuff that’s obsolete.
There’s a tiny chance that a new government might change that, and zero chance the current Tories would.
Over-simplistic rubbish. Makes you sound like that idiot Lewis Page.
I read up and their Assembly elections are quite electorally interesting in that they are similar but different to the presidential election.
That is, they are done in 2 rounds, but where a run off is needed, any candidate getting 12.5% of the total electoral, so turnout and vote share dependent, gets in the run off.
It's not front and centre in the write ups of previous elections, but I guess that, differently to the presidential election, there end up being a lot of 3 way (or more) contests in the second round, and the balance of party strengths and the number of 3 ways happening has a big effect on the result -mainly 3(+) ways suits RN better, mainly 2 ways suits Macron. And it looks a pretty 3 way tussle this go.
(Don't know why they don't just go STV on the same constituencies tbh, for this type of contest certainly.)
Is that a fair assessment and has 2-way / 3-way influenced the course of past elections?
(I'm avoiding ribald analogies here)
Its very French, why just have one day of elections, when you can have two.
If I were Sunak I would begin to worry that centrist tories are jumping ship to lib dems to ensure they become opposition and that their vote isn't wasted. That is the other story to complement reform crossing over... what happens this coming week could decide if it is Canada 93 or not.
This chart actually shows what the biggest cost will be in the Tory manifesto. As I pointed out on PB last night, the problem with the Tory manifesto is the promised increase in defence spending.
It’s not the policy of increasing defence spending to 2.5% that is the problem - for an interventionist country like ours it seems sound to increase, looking to the unstable international future of the world with more messy collapse of the Russian and US as superpowers, and the rise of EU and China. After/in addition to Ukraine, Putin will invade Moldova, and China not just certain to invade Taiwan, but claim the whole of the South China Sea.
The problem is the one political Party promising to raise defence spending to 2.5% has not realistically explained how they will fund it. In fact, this year, they have gone out of their way to avoid explaining how they will fund it - by-passed putting this increase in defence spending through their last budget* and OBR as urged by senior MPs in their party who, unlike Sunak and Hunt, genuinely care this increase is needed, so needed it funded to be for real. Instead it was delayed to be announced a few weeks later.
This means the Conservative Party has NO policy to increase defence spending to the level seen in this picture, just a gimmick that blows a huge hole into the manifesto below the cost balance waterline. If you cannot say exactly how you are funding this policy without economists laughing straight back into your face, you don’t have a realistic policy, just a gimmicky pledge - a promise not worth the paper it’s written on.
I’ve been pondering defence expenditure. Both big parties want to increase it. Can we somehow get more socioeconomic benefit from it, other than just greater employment in shipyards, military recruitment etc? Obviously we are not going to have the SBS running breakfast clubs in Hackney, but you get my drift (maybe)?
To answer your genuine question, I don’t know very much about defence costings. Other people on the site can give you a very knowledgable answer I suspect.
I do know that - my picture of the day speaks for itself - Team Sunak not putting the rise to 2.5% in budget, through OBR nor even remotely properly funding it in the manifesto, is gaslighting everyone who believes it should be 2.5%.
I do also know when Sunak announced National Service a few weeks back (everyone now knows they can get out of, by saying they’ve an interview to go to) the Tories tried to point to how many other countries already do it, and quickly ridiculed by military and boffins pointing out ours is a professional army ready and so often deployed, not a conscript army.
I also sort of know Defence Budgets and procurements struggle because the big expensive items dominates the money, leaving tin pot money to achieve gold plated dreams on everything else. The expensive things are satellites and insurance for satellites? Wasn’t there talk about separating nuclear from the defence budget as that one cost hurts the rest of the budgets too?
All you need to know is that defence procurement has been broken for years, and we spend the majority of the money on stuff that’s obsolete.
There’s a tiny chance that a new government might change that, and zero chance the current Tories would.
Over-simplistic rubbish. Makes you sound like that idiot Lewis Page.
Over simplistic perhaps, but what’s your counter argument ?
I’d say claiming that defence procurement isn’t broken is also talking rubbish.
Things are getting worse, not better. Hard to see where good news will come from to turn things round so they can recover to disastrous up from extinction.
Dan Hodges tweeted almost daily for months that waiting any longer would make Tory defeat worse but i suspect he hadn't factored in them running the worst campaign since Michael Foot.
To be honest right now the Tory campaign looks worse than Foot's.
If this was the campaign they ran in the Autumn they would be starting from a worse position. The only upside is that Rishi wouldn't have left DD to do an rumoured to be utter appalling ITV interview.
When do we get to see this interview?
I do not know, but I do know it is Sunak v Starmer live on Sky tomorrow evening with Sky drawing Starmer to go first meaning Sunak will have the last say
NOM is *lengthening* like crazy. Science is powerless to explain this.
Not really.
With the polls as they are, every day that passes should see NOM lengthen until its in the hundreds or a thousand.
There's less and less time available for "events" to prevent a Labour majority from happening, and even a polling error would just be changing the size of the majority as it stands not the fact of one.
Twenty three days left, though fewer for postal voters. And soon, the football will take over the national attention, except for viewers in Wales.
What's left in the dairy that might allow a black swan to land? Labour's manifesto launch. The BBC head to head debate.
Anything else?
Staines keep teasing an October Surprise event.
If its true, who knows, if it will make any difference, again who knows. Has he had a really killer story that changed political narrative in recent years, I don't think he has.
I am not sure the Tory leaning media heart is even in it. There are plenty of awkward comments that Labour figures, including Starmer, have made in the past. In previous election, they would be running them left, right and centre, instead they are minor stories tucked away on the websites. While the Speccy seems very keen to boot Sunak up the arse.
It's pretty obvious what the story is. If the tories are stupid enough to use it then it'll backfire within a couple of days. All the mysterious prominent senior Labour figure with legal training has to say is that his private life remains private. And meanwhile a mysterious junior Labour figure will leak far more damaging nepotism allegations about equally senior (in the near past) Tory figures and the electorate will be reminded what this election is about.
I have no idea what the story might be.Some hints without allegations might be helpful.
After Johnson's behaviour it is not easy to see any scandal having too much traction unless it involves children or kittens.
You don't have to be a genius to see what's being insinuated with these two articles:
Comments
Enjoy yourself (its later than you think)
We've had Boris since then, the actual PM, and his shagging around isn't what brought him down.
p.s. Paul Staines is scurrilous and a hypocrite. For years he ran a 'Tory Totty' column, some of whom were barely legal. Regardless of one's politics he shouldn't be given the time of day.
After Johnson's behaviour it is not easy to see any scandal having too much traction unless it involves children or kittens.
Trump, grab'em by the... tape, Hunter Biden laptop etc.
I wasn't convinced
But not yet influential, particularly.
What a tool!
Sunak has run into trouble because they try the I'm just like you spin e.g I'll let the train take the strain, but we know it normally goes about on the old helicopter and he gets on the train with his very expensive rucksack. Or I am going to take the old Ford Focus for a filler up, how does it work again?
RefUK is boosted slightly by Nigel Farage having a good debate, putting the Conservative case better than the Conservatives. Both main parties were hamstrung by their "lines to follow" diktats imo.
Labour is being hurt by the £2,000 tax charge, and they seem to have decided to ignore it which is a mistake Mandelson has made in the past. John Prescott complained about the rationale that responding to attacks meant letting the Tories set the agenda, so they let any old rubbish slide. Of course, it could be a Starmaresque slow burner like when he trapped Boris on Partygate.
John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
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4h
I think midnight tomorrow is halfway through the election campaign
It’s simply not a developing news story. He’s guilty; that’s it.
You sure, Sean?
More seriously, all the me-too stuff was pretty damaging for some (and forced some really onto the back foot even when they hadn't really done anything wrong) and it keeps popping up every so often making it sound like HoC is a pretty toxic place to work. The recent text-gate stuff is quite damaging as well, that a politician is comprised into giving away numbers to people.
He eventually had to resign from the cabinet and ended up in prison.
Presumably this one will be titled "Get the F*ck Out"
(Just kidding about Milton, he was hardly a fuck-up. Ike should have listened to him more often.)
It is my belief that this is a really crazy election and we may well see some really crazy results. Long experience as a punter has taught me that in crazy situations, backing the long-shots usually pays dividends.
Rochdale, you could win. In my constituency of Tewkesbury, the LDs can certainly win. I would very much like to hear from others who from close association with events in their locality can recommend a decent punt at long odds. Trouble is, how to track them?
Would somebody like to keep a record of such long-shots and who recommended them, so that those of us who drift in and out can readily find them and bet accordingly if we wish?
I'd offer myself, but I disappear for long spells, am not tecky, and am bone idle.
Former minister quits disabled sailing association in protest at Ed Davey being on one of their boats.
Not sure this is a good look. Firstly it just draws attention to Ed Davey and what he has been doing, but it questions the true commitment of Foster to the cause, and how much he was just involved for political reasons.
There must be many, many cases of politicians visiting charities at the moment and charities will be keen to use the chance to influence. The protest just comes across to me as petulant.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c06618ln7xlo
The Selecter frontman Gaps Hendrickson dies
Arthur ‘Gaps’ Hendrickson, frontman of 2-Tone band The Selecter, has died.
In a post on X, a spokesperson for the Coventry band announced the vocalist had died after a short illness.
"The world has lost a 2-Tone original, a talented musician and an absolute gentlemen," the post said.
The Selecter, which also featured lead singer Pauline Black OBE and drummer Charley 'Aitch' Bembridge, was formed in 1979.
I do think setting Parkinson as a benchmark is a bit much, though. There have been plenty of reasonably consequential sex scandals since.
He clearly fancied himself for leader at one point. Save the world from COVID, now elect me.
One thing I really disliked about that scandal is the media clearly suspected / knew and were taking photos of him playing with his kids on his days off with nudge nudge headlines.
I do know that - my picture of the day speaks for itself - Team Sunak not putting the rise to 2.5% in budget, through OBR nor even remotely properly funding it in the manifesto, is gaslighting everyone who believes it should be 2.5%.
I do also know when Sunak announced National Service a few weeks back (everyone now knows they can get out of, by saying they’ve an interview to go to) the Tories tried to point to how many other countries already do it, and quickly ridiculed by military and boffins pointing out ours is a professional army ready and so often deployed, not a conscript army.
I also sort of know Defence Budgets and procurements struggle because the big expensive items dominates the money, leaving tin pot money to achieve gold plated dreams on everything else. The expensive things are satellites and insurance for satellites? Wasn’t there talk about separating nuclear from the defence budget as that one cost hurts the rest of the budgets too?
I can confirm that the LDs are not going to be anywhere near winning the constituency of Rochdale again for a very very long time.
Ron Davies. Things got so bad for him he became a Plaid Cymru councillor for Caerphilly.
This is supposed to be the luckiest kind of year.
But the prominence it’s being given is more than a bit silly.
Actually Reagan’s daughter had some sensible things to say about him.
I think it is more likely that the SNP will win in @RochdalePioneers seat, but certainly Ross's behaviour has opened the door to an unexpected result
Expect to see Ross in the HOL if he loses, joining Ruth Davidson
Which is economical.
In one notable instance, televised around the nation, at a Dublin count a leading politico was standing for re-election. Just before announcing the results of the machine count(s), the returning officer gathered the candidates and gave them the results.
HOWEVER, in the rush and under new schedule, the losing TD misunderstood what she'd been told . . . and was caught unawares when her defeat was declared. She burst into tears, live on TV.
Result was a flush of anger among the Irish, including many who were NOT fans of the lady or her politics. They reacted on a personal level, mad that she'd been (apparently) blind-sided and humiliated. AND their anger was directed at the quick & speedy machine count. Thus the machines were ditched and old-school paper-ballot hand-counting re-introduced.
That's one reason the party are struggling!
There's a bit in the Brandreth diaries where he describes a first meeting of a "thoughtful new Conservative MP" supper club. Him, Seb Coe, Stephen Milligan and Judith Chaplin.
Of them, two had hopelessly marginal seats and lost in 1997. Milligan died with an orange in his mouth and Chaplin in an emergency operation.
And in part, that's why the Conservatives veered so far to the right after 1997, with the consequences we see around us now.
Imagine the thrill of travelling to distant Wales for impromptu drag-races with Big_G? Or rolling from Aberdeenshire North to Moray East, and back again, in the palatial comfort of a re-conditioned Boris Bus!
My issue was more being preoccupied with your mistress rather than doing the job. The thought they kept 2m apart at all times is for the birds, it would have been impossible, how do you read documents etc.
https://order-order.com/2024/06/05/unreported-affair-hacks-are-gossiping-about-privately/
https://order-order.com/2024/06/11/telegraph-starmers-wife-being-kept-off-campaign-trail/
(and in the first article the identity of the public figure probably explains a bit of the quiet as well...)
How many of the things that make up the 2K Lie will even be in the Labour manifesto? If the Tories had waited for the actual manifesto items and pulled the same trick, it might have worked better.
There’s a tiny chance that a new government might change that, and zero chance the current Tories would.
It's the old joke about the farmer who's asked what people call him. "Twenty years planting hedges, and do they call me Bob the hedger? Do they bollocks. Thirty years baling hay, and do they call me Bob the baler? Do they bollocks. Just one fucking sheep..."
Although given he had three children it is also true!
I read up and their Assembly elections are quite electorally interesting in that they are similar but different to the presidential election.
That is, they are done in 2 rounds, but where a run off is needed, any candidate getting 12.5% of the total electorate, so turnout and vote share dependent, gets in the run off.
It's not front and centre in the write ups of previous elections, but I guess that, differently to the presidential election, there end up being a lot of 3 way (or more) contests in the second round, and the balance of party strengths and the number of 3 ways happening has a big effect on the result -mainly 3(+) ways suits RN better, mainly 2 ways suits Macron. And it looks a pretty 3 way tussle this go.
(Don't know why they don't just go STV on the same constituencies tbh, for this type of contest certainly.)
Is that a fair assessment and has 2-way / 3-way influenced the course of past elections?
(I'm avoiding ribald analogies here)
I’d say claiming that defence procurement isn’t broken is also talking rubbish.
If I was asked such a question with nothing to hide, I would tell Morgan/ Robinson/Ferrari to mind their own f*****' business.