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Starmer could be the greatest of all time – politicalbetting.com
Starmer could be the greatest of all time – politicalbetting.com
As I mentioned last week, the forecast is now moving aggressively towards the polling average. Historically speaking, there is now a 1-in-3 chance of Labour winning the popular vote by more than *20 points*.https://t.co/aIr3a1QGah
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Edit: Doh TSE deleted his Test post.
First like... hmmm, let me think?
This does remind me of the F1 joke about Latifi being the GOAT, and hardcore fans sending 'positive' messages to non-fan influencers invited to F1 races encouraging them to support Senna and other long departed drivers.
Starmer could face the same fate and be overshadowed by Sunak even if Sunak leads the Tories to zero seats as per the video on the last thread.
Though Rishi does keep trying his damndest to stretch that winning margin further.
All the Tory wipeout scenarios come from them getting very low vote share, rather than Labour getting a very high one. They will inevitably drift back up which is why an ELE is simply not on the cards. But I don't expect Labour to drift down particularly.
Equally an expanding population isn't justification for waiting lists - the system needs to cope with an increasing population...
This headline should be William Hague, then we could have Billy GOAT's Gruff.
SKSFPE
Though there are other differences eg Diabetes rates are higher amongst some ethnic minority groups than Caucasians, and other conditions have the opposite trend for different conditions.
Many of us, myself included, will be casting our votes next week.
We miss you @MikeSmithson x
My photo for the day is from Lee Anderson's Facebook Group.
For some reason he has a "Featured" post from Jan 25th - before he switched horses.
Amusing. It has 2.6k members.
Reform.
I have had a few people saying they might vote Reform at the next election due to their stance on illegal migration.
To be clear no other MP has been as vocal on this subject as me.
I have had 20,000 surveys returned with constituents voter intentions. These are Ashfield people.
They have me 1st (just) Labour 2nd, Independents 3rd and Reform 4th and losing their deposit.
Watch the upcoming by elections where Reform will lose their deposits. They should be winning these elections as UKIP did 10 years ago. Voting Reform in Ashfield risks getting a Labour MP. Will a Labour MP stick up for Ashfield like I have?
If I lose voters to Reform it won't be Reform that gets elected , it will be Labour or even worse the Independents.
Ask yourself this - who will stand up for you and be your voice in Labour or the Independents get into power in Ashfield?
https://www.facebook.com/groups/287739099365530/
Explanation: This, I think, is the Tory administrated group from before he defected. He obviously thinks he has a big personal vote that he can energise now.
Ref. Ukraine, had we plural (= Joe Biden with a little help from his allies) not so disastrously and precipitously withdrawn from Afghanistan there’s a strong chance Putin would have thought longer and harder about invading Ukraine.
Biden told the world that we weren’t going to police it. It greenlit Putin. Not quite as big a foreign policy blunder as the invasion of Iraq, but not too far behind.
Ooh , should get the PB age fault lines going
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/11/higher-share-of-pensioners-pay-income-tax-than-workers/
Well, he's not going to be the incumbent, is he?
The presentations from the June 5th "Shedding Light on the General Election" LSE/BPC event at the LSE are now up and can be downloaded here:
https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/shedding-light-on-the-uk-general-election/
Rishi Sunak offers tax breaks to landlords in Tory manifesto
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/10/tory-manifesto-general-election-rishi-sunak-landlords/
I like Starmer. He's a bit too earnest in his public face, a bit too Mr Angry about how bad it all is, but I get the feeling his heart is in the right place. Despite Curry(non)gate I think he would have overseen a more cautious government in 2020 (rightly or wrongly, but certainly more seriously).
He is also, pace Napoleon, a lucky general. Look at the material he has to work with! Johnson imploding as his true nature oozed from every sweaty pore. Truss. Then the calm, sensible manager that turns out to be absolutely fecking useless, with no political instinct at all.
Starmer's problem will be on July 5th. What they hell does he do to turn the country around?
But yes, there is time - but is anything *really* likely to change? The Tory operation, from Sunak to ministers to the party chairman to the CCHQ media bods seem universally incapable of understanding how elections work, never mind executing a plan to deliver a well-designed strategy. What's they're core message? They've been in power for 14 years: what are their achievements? From this campaign, you'd have no idea.
If the polls do swing back, it'll be because of either a serious Labour mistake (unlikely - they're paranoid about that risk to the point of:), or Labour losing vote share to smaller parties with a more aggressive campaigning style.
But either way, I don't expect polls to move much: the Tories are just too disliked and disbelieved; they have lost the right to be listened to.
So assuming the polls are right - and pre-GE Westminster by-elections and the locals suggest they were, coming into the campaign - then Labour is on for a majority well in excess of 200. Possibly in excess of 400.
He's thrashing around like a fish out of water.
But I think you are being a touch tongue-in-cheek.
Or am I getting mixed up with someone else, like Heraclius from the ITV show Gladiators ?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/10/why-lady-victoria-starmer-is-being-kept-off-the-trail/
FPTP isn't a normal distribution type chance thing: constituency results are related contingencies. If Reform underperforms their polling, which has been a theme in by-elections (although that might have something to do with their limited activist base that's less relevant to GE's), I think a shut-out is a bigger chance than the one-in-five that PP make it.
That’s worth a flutter in my book.
Quite a new expression but seemingly now everywhere. The first time I heard it was in relation to Zinedine Zidane. That confused me, because he looks a bit like a goat. So I assumed it was a reference to his Caprine looks rather than an acronym.
Which current UK front line politician looks most like a goat? Blair was Bambi, Farage is a frog, Cameron a little porcine, May owlish. Boris a Dulux dog. Corbyn less animal like, but a dead ringer for Don Quixote. I can't immediately think of any goats.
While I agree that *surely* that is what is going to happen (?!), I had assumed that we would have seen that effect by now.
In fact, we've had 20 of the 43 days of the campaign - nearly half way through - and things are only getting worse.
I once attended a dinner at the House of Commons welcoming a minister from an important country for significant business discussions. It was the day that John Major resigned with "back me or sack me". Our host, a Tory MP, spent the evening ignoring the minister and pontificating about the forthcoming leadership race. The whole point was to discuss relations with this country and in the end the minister was ignored in favour of the internal garbage of the Tories. I was livid, as were most of the other guests,
Self indulgent psychodrama indeed... Their demise can hardly come soon enough.
https://x.com/AlexGAThomas/status/1800434635023040935
The same with this stat. Something has gone horribly wrong when pensioners are the biggest contributors of income tax.
There's a fair point to be made recent events have been spectacularly unhelpful to all incumbent Governments and it doesn't matter much if the Government is Conservative, Liberal, Socialist, Social Democratic, Green, Populist or any combination of the above, there is a very strong anti-incumbency tide.
The current Government in the UK is one of the few which has not faced an election since Covid so naturally it has to take its turn in the reckoning. We are told by some in the Tory ditch we should be praising Sunak for low levels of unemployment and falling inflation. Perhaps but shouldn't we also mention levels of public debt, deficit, productivity and a raft of other measures?
It may just be a "perfect storm" of factors is aligning, aided and abetted by the ruling party's own ineptitude, to create a historic result - we'll see.
The poor & young get national service, and a further increase in house prices. Feels like the Tories haven't accounted for the fact that older & richer people tend to have younger and poorer family in the 25% core vote strategy.
So you can have both Bradman and Messi as GOATs. Or Mike Smithson on pb.com.
Which is better than them all starving in heaps.
Don't worry, my parents are way ahead of you.
Very hard to see another reform candidate winning if those two both lose
I've just received an email from the UK government confirming funding for a 6-month project on AI in healthcare. It says, "You can start your project on 1 March 2024."
You literally can’t buy a ticket at any price to be on the grid before the race, it’s reserved for invitees only, and most of these idiots fail to understand that there’s millions of actual fans who would swap places in a heartbeat.
If they decide to raise CGT then that will be an out there policy (out there with the LibDems but distinct from the Cons).
In such an environment, similarly to Gordon's 1997 spending pledge, he is giving himself time to play in before he moves forward with his own policies. Whatever the hell they are going to be.
It does seem increasingly likely that Starmer might challenge both of these records making him the GOAT election winner.
The largest fall in share of the vote for the Tories is currently 11.6% in 1945. It seems almost inevitable that Sunak is going to do worse than that. Boris won 43.6% in 2019 so 32% is the target here. It looks a long way off right now.
Not that most people care because they view the Cons as tired and the country in need of change. Doesn't change the sound-ish economic basis upon which Rishi went called the election when he did.
We also have the absurd situation of multinational companies who pay next to no tax here but are happy to use the UK to build their profits?
Edit: The 'likes' are back!
I can see Tory HQ now - now THIS they are going to love.
He tacked right after securing the Labour leadership, so it's also possible he might tack left again after winning the general election. We'll just have to wait and see.
On London properties CGT bills of £100k+ won't be that uncommon, so you could even let it out for six months for free and be a winner.
And Good Morning everyone, from cheerful (reasonably) OKC, since he and Mrs C are celebrating their 62nd wedding anniversary.
Lol. Beware parcel carriers for they may be canvassing!
We all need to hope that he shows due regard to planting acorns, rather than simply scrambling around trying to make things look as good as possible in the short term.
Does the home address if published (I think they can opt out?) on a Statement of Persons Nominated and Notice of Poll have to be the candidate's, or can it be an agent?
Aside: our Lib Dem candidate gives an address 10-20 miles away. Paper candidate?
It does appear that CCHQ were completely blindsided by the election announcement, as they had nothing ready to go. One of the key advantages of incumbency, that you know the timeline, totally lost. The other parties would all have been ready to go for a May election.
Most amusing.
Back then we didn't have the mountain of debt we've accumulated nor the ongoing deficit which continues to build the mountain. The problem was many Conservatives were quite happy to see huge amounts of borrowing at very low rates but didn't realise or understand we might have to pay the money back one day at a higher rate.
The economic Covid response, though well meaning, has had consequences.
It’s usually a bit of light-hearted bants.
Messi is the GOAT
Nah it’s Ronaldo
etc.
I'm also of the view that Leon generally only has one ID at a time - there have been brief periods when a couple alternate or are more or less concurrent, I believe, particularly when he's going through a rebirth.
I, on the other hand, have lots