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Starmer could be the greatest of all time – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,801
edited June 16 in General
Starmer could be the greatest of all time – politicalbetting.com

As I mentioned last week, the forecast is now moving aggressively towards the polling average. Historically speaking, there is now a 1-in-3 chance of Labour winning the popular vote by more than *20 points*.https://t.co/aIr3a1QGah

Read the full story here

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  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967
    edited June 11
    Second like the LibDems

    Edit: Doh TSE deleted his Test post.

    First like... hmmm, let me think?
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    TimSTimS Posts: 10,639

    Second like the LibDems

    Second like the actual Lib Dems
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    eekeek Posts: 25,864
    Third like the Tories
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,126
    Good morning, everyone.

    This does remind me of the F1 joke about Latifi being the GOAT, and hardcore fans sending 'positive' messages to non-fan influencers invited to F1 races encouraging them to support Senna and other long departed drivers.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,084
    A week is a long time in politics and we have three weeks to go.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,464
    BigJohnOwls encouraged me to use this headline for the thread.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,074
    edited June 11
    Every remembers Canada 1993 for the collapse of the Conservatives but the winner is forgotten.

    Starmer could face the same fate and be overshadowed by Sunak even if Sunak leads the Tories to zero seats as per the video on the last thread.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 10,639
    I reckon the final margin will be a bit under 20%. In the last 2 weeks Reform will drift back (and Green will continue their slow decline, especially if there's a successful Gaza ceasefire) and that will give back a few percentage points to the Tories and one or two to Labour. In the competition I have Tory 31% and I think Labour 40%.

    Though Rishi does keep trying his damndest to stretch that winning margin further.

    All the Tory wipeout scenarios come from them getting very low vote share, rather than Labour getting a very high one. They will inevitably drift back up which is why an ELE is simply not on the cards. But I don't expect Labour to drift down particularly.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967

    Every remembers Canada 1993 for the collapse of the Conservatives but the winner is forgotten.

    Starmer could face the same fate and be overshadowed by Sunak even if Sunak leads the Tories to zero seats as per the video on the last thread.

    Clear Plan, Bold Action, Zero Seats
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967
    Jonathan said:

    A week is a long time in politics and we have three weeks to go.

    Three long times then?
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,864
    FPT
    boulay said:

    Do the BMA or some medical think tank ever look at waiting lists over time in the context of new treatments available?

    So for example, there must be many new operations and treatments that are available now compared to 1990, 2000, 2010. How many people are on waiting lists for treatments that previously weren’t available and so comparing the waiting lists needs to be weighted or caveated. Also weighing for population growth.

    Obviously it’s all good fun to look at waiting lists compared to period x but it doesn’t really shine much light if the ops and the numbers aren’t the same. If there is a new heart op that wasn’t available in 2000 and there are currently 5000 waiting to have it then it’s not really helpful to include them in the stats for that period.

    I'm sorry but I don't think it's relevant, the treatment may differ (and results may improve) but the aliments would have existed in 1990 the difference is the result, speed of discharge / recovery time.

    Equally an expanding population isn't justification for waiting lists - the system needs to cope with an increasing population...
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    TimSTimS Posts: 10,639

    Every remembers Canada 1993 for the collapse of the Conservatives but the winner is forgotten.

    Starmer could face the same fate and be overshadowed by Sunak even if Sunak leads the Tories to zero seats as per the video on the last thread.

    That's certainly a take! Poor old SKS, overshadowed by his victim's more exciting collapse.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,459
    Thanks for the header.

    This headline should be William Hague, then we could have Billy GOAT's Gruff.
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,978

    BigJohnOwls encouraged me to use this headline for the thread.

    When BJO is onside, it surely will be time to roll out......

    SKSFPE
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,459
    eek said:

    FPT

    boulay said:

    Do the BMA or some medical think tank ever look at waiting lists over time in the context of new treatments available?

    So for example, there must be many new operations and treatments that are available now compared to 1990, 2000, 2010. How many people are on waiting lists for treatments that previously weren’t available and so comparing the waiting lists needs to be weighted or caveated. Also weighing for population growth.

    Obviously it’s all good fun to look at waiting lists compared to period x but it doesn’t really shine much light if the ops and the numbers aren’t the same. If there is a new heart op that wasn’t available in 2000 and there are currently 5000 waiting to have it then it’s not really helpful to include them in the stats for that period.

    I'm sorry but I don't think it's relevant, the treatment may differ (and results may improve) but the aliments would have existed in 1990 the difference is the result, speed of discharge / recovery time.

    Equally an expanding population isn't justification for waiting lists - the system needs to cope with an increasing population...
    Also of course, they may be waiting for a treatment replacing a former treatment used for the same condition

    Though there are other differences eg Diabetes rates are higher amongst some ethnic minority groups than Caucasians, and other conditions have the opposite trend for different conditions.
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,408
    TimS said:

    Every remembers Canada 1993 for the collapse of the Conservatives but the winner is forgotten.

    Starmer could face the same fate and be overshadowed by Sunak even if Sunak leads the Tories to zero seats as per the video on the last thread.

    That's certainly a take! Poor old SKS, overshadowed by his victim's more exciting collapse.
    The Tories are addicted to psychodrama. It will always be about them.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,342
    Jonathan said:

    A week is a long time in politics and we have three weeks to go.

    We do but one of the multiple things I liked about OGH was his timely reminder about postal voting.

    Many of us, myself included, will be casting our votes next week.

    We miss you @MikeSmithson x
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,884
    I think even SKS in private would probably admit that the eventual result will owe a lot to the Tories’ self-inflicted damage and their idiocy. He deserves credit where it’s due - he has played a very good hand to maximise his chances of winning, and winning pretty big. What happens next will certainly be the big question though.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,459
    edited June 11
    FPT:
    My photo for the day is from Lee Anderson's Facebook Group.

    For some reason he has a "Featured" post from Jan 25th - before he switched horses.

    Amusing. It has 2.6k members.

    Reform.
    I have had a few people saying they might vote Reform at the next election due to their stance on illegal migration.
    To be clear no other MP has been as vocal on this subject as me.
    I have had 20,000 surveys returned with constituents voter intentions. These are Ashfield people.
    They have me 1st (just) Labour 2nd, Independents 3rd and Reform 4th and losing their deposit.

    Watch the upcoming by elections where Reform will lose their deposits. They should be winning these elections as UKIP did 10 years ago. Voting Reform in Ashfield risks getting a Labour MP. Will a Labour MP stick up for Ashfield like I have?
    If I lose voters to Reform it won't be Reform that gets elected , it will be Labour or even worse the Independents.
    Ask yourself this - who will stand up for you and be your voice in Labour or the Independents get into power in Ashfield?



    https://www.facebook.com/groups/287739099365530/

    Explanation: This, I think, is the Tory administrated group from before he defected. He obviously thinks he has a big personal vote that he can energise now.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,342

    boulay said:

    If Labour want to be let off the hook for the UKs involvement in the GFC then they need to acknowledge Covid and Ukraine, no?

    The way I look at it, Labour faced 9/11 and the GFC, the Tories faced Covid and Ukraine, plus Brexit which was entirely self-inflicted. Shit happens.
    You think 9/11 or the GFC compares to Covid?
    Most of the employees of this Country were at home for months and months getting 80% pay, paid for by the Government. It was by far the biggest event any Government has had to deal with since WW2. The fact that the tories will be handing over an economy with 4.4% unemployment and 2% inflation just 3 years after Covid is something that they should get credit for, which of course they wont.
    This is slightly disingenuous. You know, or should do, that there are serious problems in the pipeline which is one reason Sunak went now. The figures in the autumn won’t look so good and there are massive structural problems in the UK economy.

    Ref. Ukraine, had we plural (= Joe Biden with a little help from his allies) not so disastrously and precipitously withdrawn from Afghanistan there’s a strong chance Putin would have thought longer and harder about invading Ukraine.

    Biden told the world that we weren’t going to police it. It greenlit Putin. Not quite as big a foreign policy blunder as the invasion of Iraq, but not too far behind.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,864
    MattW said:

    FPT:
    My photo for the day is from Lee Anderson's Facebook Group.

    For some reason he has a "Featured" post from Jan 25th - before he switched horses.

    Amusing. It has 2.6k members.

    Reform.
    I have had a few people saying they might vote Reform at the next election due to their stance on illegal migration.
    To be clear no other MP has been as vocal on this subject as me.
    I have had 20,000 surveys returned with constituents voter intentions. These are Ashfield people.
    They have me 1st (just) Labour 2nd, Independents 3rd and Reform 4th and losing their deposit.

    Watch the upcoming by elections where Reform will lose their deposits. They should be winning these elections as UKIP did 10 years ago. Voting Reform in Ashfield risks getting a Labour MP. Will a Labour MP stick up for Ashfield like I have?
    If I lose voters to Reform it won't be Reform that gets elected , it will be Labour or even worse the Independents.
    Ask yourself this - who will stand up for you and be your voice in Labour or the Independents get into power in Ashfield?



    https://www.facebook.com/groups/287739099365530/

    Explanation: This, I think, is the Tory administrated group from before he defected. He obviously thinks he has a big personal vote that he can energise now.

    So basically clutching at straws because campaigning for Reform is proving rather lonely..
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,126
    Ha, just searched for Heraclius in Google and the caption below the first auto-suggestion was "Former Roman Emperor".

    Well, he's not going to be the incumbent, is he?
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,890
    TimS said:

    I reckon the final margin will be a bit under 20%. In the last 2 weeks Reform will drift back (and Green will continue their slow decline, especially if there's a successful Gaza ceasefire) and that will give back a few percentage points to the Tories and one or two to Labour. In the competition I have Tory 31% and I think Labour 40%.

    Though Rishi does keep trying his damndest to stretch that winning margin further.

    All the Tory wipeout scenarios come from them getting very low vote share, rather than Labour getting a very high one. They will inevitably drift back up which is why an ELE is simply not on the cards. But I don't expect Labour to drift down particularly.

    So presumable Rishi is posting on PB and has entered the competition?
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,096

    BigJohnOwls encouraged me to use this headline for the thread.

    Indeed. SKS fans should have an opportunity to explain.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,459
    edited June 11
    eek said:

    MattW said:

    FPT:
    My photo for the day is from Lee Anderson's Facebook Group.

    For some reason he has a "Featured" post from Jan 25th - before he switched horses.

    Amusing. It has 2.6k members.

    Reform.
    I have had a few people saying they might vote Reform at the next election due to their stance on illegal migration.
    To be clear no other MP has been as vocal on this subject as me.
    I have had 20,000 surveys returned with constituents voter intentions. These are Ashfield people.
    They have me 1st (just) Labour 2nd, Independents 3rd and Reform 4th and losing their deposit.

    Watch the upcoming by elections where Reform will lose their deposits. They should be winning these elections as UKIP did 10 years ago. Voting Reform in Ashfield risks getting a Labour MP. Will a Labour MP stick up for Ashfield like I have?
    If I lose voters to Reform it won't be Reform that gets elected , it will be Labour or even worse the Independents.
    Ask yourself this - who will stand up for you and be your voice in Labour or the Independents get into power in Ashfield?



    https://www.facebook.com/groups/287739099365530/

    Explanation: This, I think, is the Tory administrated group from before he defected. He obviously thinks he has a big personal vote that he can energise now.

    So basically clutching at straws because campaigning for Reform is proving rather lonely..
    It's tempting to tweet and tag him (and a couple of journos) in :smile: .
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,464
    Hurrah, as an accidental landlord, Rishi has my vote.

    Rishi Sunak offers tax breaks to landlords in Tory manifesto

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/10/tory-manifesto-general-election-rishi-sunak-landlords/
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,841

    Ha, just searched for Heraclius in Google and the caption below the first auto-suggestion was "Former Roman Emperor".

    Well, he's not going to be the incumbent, is he?

    Interesting. I’m sure there’s a nutter out there somewhere who claims to be the legitimate Roman Emperor.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,890

    I think even SKS in private would probably admit that the eventual result will owe a lot to the Tories’ self-inflicted damage and their idiocy. He deserves credit where it’s due - he has played a very good hand to maximise his chances of winning, and winning pretty big. What happens next will certainly be the big question though.

    And Covid, the economic costs of getting through are now having to be paid for and then Ukraine.
    I like Starmer. He's a bit too earnest in his public face, a bit too Mr Angry about how bad it all is, but I get the feeling his heart is in the right place. Despite Curry(non)gate I think he would have overseen a more cautious government in 2020 (rightly or wrongly, but certainly more seriously).

    He is also, pace Napoleon, a lucky general. Look at the material he has to work with! Johnson imploding as his true nature oozed from every sweaty pore. Truss. Then the calm, sensible manager that turns out to be absolutely fecking useless, with no political instinct at all.

    Starmer's problem will be on July 5th. What they hell does he do to turn the country around?
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,316

    I think even SKS in private would probably admit that the eventual result will owe a lot to the Tories’ self-inflicted damage and their idiocy. He deserves credit where it’s due - he has played a very good hand to maximise his chances of winning, and winning pretty big. What happens next will certainly be the big question though.

    And Covid, the economic costs of getting through are now having to be paid for and then Ukraine.
    I like Starmer. He's a bit too earnest in his public face, a bit too Mr Angry about how bad it all is, but I get the feeling his heart is in the right place. Despite Curry(non)gate I think he would have overseen a more cautious government in 2020 (rightly or wrongly, but certainly more seriously).

    He is also, pace Napoleon, a lucky general. Look at the material he has to work with! Johnson imploding as his true nature oozed from every sweaty pore. Truss. Then the calm, sensible manager that turns out to be absolutely fecking useless, with no political instinct at all.

    Starmer's problem will be on July 5th. What they hell does he do to turn the country around?
    Starmer always reminds me of the farmer in Shaun the sheep, it's the glasses.

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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,496
    Jonathan said:

    A week is a long time in politics and we have three weeks to go.

    Well, about one week to the postal votes.

    But yes, there is time - but is anything *really* likely to change? The Tory operation, from Sunak to ministers to the party chairman to the CCHQ media bods seem universally incapable of understanding how elections work, never mind executing a plan to deliver a well-designed strategy. What's they're core message? They've been in power for 14 years: what are their achievements? From this campaign, you'd have no idea.

    If the polls do swing back, it'll be because of either a serious Labour mistake (unlikely - they're paranoid about that risk to the point of:), or Labour losing vote share to smaller parties with a more aggressive campaigning style.

    But either way, I don't expect polls to move much: the Tories are just too disliked and disbelieved; they have lost the right to be listened to.

    So assuming the polls are right - and pre-GE Westminster by-elections and the locals suggest they were, coming into the campaign - then Labour is on for a majority well in excess of 200. Possibly in excess of 400.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,459
    edited June 11

    Hurrah, as an accidental landlord, Rishi has my vote.

    Rishi Sunak offers tax breaks to landlords in Tory manifesto

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/10/tory-manifesto-general-election-rishi-sunak-landlords/

    There are already transitional measures in place, which gave I think three years, then reduced to 18 months, to sell the second property.

    He's thrashing around like a fish out of water.

    But I think you are being a touch tongue-in-cheek.
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,705
    edited June 11
    Wasn't Heraclius the one who changed the language of the Eastern Roman Empire to Greek ?

    Or am I getting mixed up with someone else, like Heraclius from the ITV show Gladiators ?
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    DougSeal said:

    Ha, just searched for Heraclius in Google and the caption below the first auto-suggestion was "Former Roman Emperor".

    Well, he's not going to be the incumbent, is he?

    Interesting. I’m sure there’s a nutter out there somewhere who claims to be the legitimate Roman Emperor.
    The Pope has one of the Imperial titles still and the structure of the Roman church is highly correlated with imperial structures. So Francis has as good a claim as anyone.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,496
    On a related note, Paddy Power are quoting Reform to win zero seats at 4/1. Personally, I think there's some value in that. With Labour polling so high, it's quite possible that where Reform take a sizeable chunk of the Tory vote, either Labour captures the seat from miles back or the Tories hang on.

    FPTP isn't a normal distribution type chance thing: constituency results are related contingencies. If Reform underperforms their polling, which has been a theme in by-elections (although that might have something to do with their limited activist base that's less relevant to GE's), I think a shut-out is a bigger chance than the one-in-five that PP make it.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,342

    On a related note, Paddy Power are quoting Reform to win zero seats at 4/1. Personally, I think there's some value in that. With Labour polling so high, it's quite possible that where Reform take a sizeable chunk of the Tory vote, either Labour captures the seat from miles back or the Tories hang on.

    FPTP isn't a normal distribution type chance thing: constituency results are related contingencies. If Reform underperforms their polling, which has been a theme in by-elections (although that might have something to do with their limited activist base that's less relevant to GE's), I think a shut-out is a bigger chance than the one-in-five that PP make it.

    Another great tip, Peter.

    That’s worth a flutter in my book.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 10,639
    On G.O.A.T.

    Quite a new expression but seemingly now everywhere. The first time I heard it was in relation to Zinedine Zidane. That confused me, because he looks a bit like a goat. So I assumed it was a reference to his Caprine looks rather than an acronym.

    Which current UK front line politician looks most like a goat? Blair was Bambi, Farage is a frog, Cameron a little porcine, May owlish. Boris a Dulux dog. Corbyn less animal like, but a dead ringer for Don Quixote. I can't immediately think of any goats.
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    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,250
    TimS said:

    I reckon the final margin will be a bit under 20%. In the last 2 weeks Reform will drift back (and Green will continue their slow decline, especially if there's a successful Gaza ceasefire) and that will give back a few percentage points to the Tories and one or two to Labour. In the competition I have Tory 31% and I think Labour 40%.

    Though Rishi does keep trying his damndest to stretch that winning margin further.

    All the Tory wipeout scenarios come from them getting very low vote share, rather than Labour getting a very high one. They will inevitably drift back up which is why an ELE is simply not on the cards. But I don't expect Labour to drift down particularly.

    "They will inevitably drift back up"

    While I agree that *surely* that is what is going to happen (?!), I had assumed that we would have seen that effect by now.

    In fact, we've had 20 of the 43 days of the campaign - nearly half way through - and things are only getting worse.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356
    Ric Holden tweets another letter from the civil service this morning which confirms the Tories lied about it...

    https://x.com/AlexGAThomas/status/1800434635023040935
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,290
    FPT
    ToryJim said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It is ridiculous that we are not even halfway through the general election campaign. Six weeks is far too long.

    It always used to be 4 weeks. It was changed relatively recently, can't remember the reason.
    I believe the excuse is changes to registration to vote including rolling registration and individual registration. Not sure whether there are legitimate reasons or it’s simply bureaucratic inertia.


    I did notice scrolling through the overnight chat some discussion on deposits. The Thatcher government did update the deposit requirements in ROTPA1985 previously the threshold was an eighth of the vote to return £150 deposit. It seems to me that after nearly 40 years the value of £500 has declined, in fact a quick glance at the Bank of England data suggests that £500 of 1985 money is the equivalent of £1500 of today’s, so perhaps an adjustment is in order. It’s a delicate balancing act between having a low barrier to entry, but one that is sufficient to prevent excessive numbers of highly frivolous candidates.
    They've scrapped the deposit altogether in Canada.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,953

    Hurrah, as an accidental landlord, Rishi has my vote.

    Rishi Sunak offers tax breaks to landlords in Tory manifesto

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/10/tory-manifesto-general-election-rishi-sunak-landlords/

    Even more tax breaks?
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    TimS said:

    On G.O.A.T.

    Quite a new expression but seemingly now everywhere. The first time I heard it was in relation to Zinedine Zidane. That confused me, because he looks a bit like a goat. So I assumed it was a reference to his Caprine looks rather than an acronym.

    Which current UK front line politician looks most like a goat? Blair was Bambi, Farage is a frog, Cameron a little porcine, May owlish. Boris a Dulux dog. Corbyn less animal like, but a dead ringer for Don Quixote. I can't immediately think of any goats.

    Can I nominate Eric Joyce, not frontline admittedly but did perform in a goat like manner by head butting a colleague.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,154

    Hurrah, as an accidental landlord, Rishi has my vote.

    Rishi Sunak offers tax breaks to landlords in Tory manifesto

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/10/tory-manifesto-general-election-rishi-sunak-landlords/

    The only manifesto worth reading and planning for is Labour's
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,126
    Mr. Oracle, I think that was slightly later, if you mean officially. Justinian's Codex was, I believe, in Latin but later legal reworks were in Greek. Even in Justinian's day, the century preceding Heraclius', Greek was the more common everyday language.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 13,112
    Morning all :)

    There's a fair point to be made recent events have been spectacularly unhelpful to all incumbent Governments and it doesn't matter much if the Government is Conservative, Liberal, Socialist, Social Democratic, Green, Populist or any combination of the above, there is a very strong anti-incumbency tide.

    The current Government in the UK is one of the few which has not faced an election since Covid so naturally it has to take its turn in the reckoning. We are told by some in the Tory ditch we should be praising Sunak for low levels of unemployment and falling inflation. Perhaps but shouldn't we also mention levels of public debt, deficit, productivity and a raft of other measures?

    It may just be a "perfect storm" of factors is aligning, aided and abetted by the ruling party's own ineptitude, to create a historic result - we'll see.
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,408
    viewcode said:

    +++IMPORTANT POST+++

    The presentations from the June 5th "Shedding Light on the General Election" LSE/BPC event at the LSE are now up and can be downloaded here:

    https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/shedding-light-on-the-uk-general-election/

    Fascinating, thanks.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,074
    Cicero said:

    TimS said:

    Every remembers Canada 1993 for the collapse of the Conservatives but the winner is forgotten.

    Starmer could face the same fate and be overshadowed by Sunak even if Sunak leads the Tories to zero seats as per the video on the last thread.

    That's certainly a take! Poor old SKS, overshadowed by his victim's more exciting collapse.
    The Tories are addicted to psychodrama. It will always be about them.
    Indeed, it is one of the things I most loath about the Tories.

    I once attended a dinner at the House of Commons welcoming a minister from an important country for significant business discussions. It was the day that John Major resigned with "back me or sack me". Our host, a Tory MP, spent the evening ignoring the minister and pontificating about the forthcoming leadership race. The whole point was to discuss relations with this country and in the end the minister was ignored in favour of the internal garbage of the Tories. I was livid, as were most of the other guests,

    Self indulgent psychodrama indeed... Their demise can hardly come soon enough.
    We weren’t exactly free of that kind of psychodrama when Blair and Brown were in Downing Street.
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,791

    On a related note, Paddy Power are quoting Reform to win zero seats at 4/1. Personally, I think there's some value in that. With Labour polling so high, it's quite possible that where Reform take a sizeable chunk of the Tory vote, either Labour captures the seat from miles back or the Tories hang on.

    FPTP isn't a normal distribution type chance thing: constituency results are related contingencies. If Reform underperforms their polling, which has been a theme in by-elections (although that might have something to do with their limited activist base that's less relevant to GE's), I think a shut-out is a bigger chance than the one-in-five that PP make it.

    Yes but 5.8 nil Reform seats on Bf and 5.4 on Smarkets.
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    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 198
    ToryJim said:

    DougSeal said:

    Ha, just searched for Heraclius in Google and the caption below the first auto-suggestion was "Former Roman Emperor".

    Well, he's not going to be the incumbent, is he?

    Interesting. I’m sure there’s a nutter out there somewhere who claims to be the legitimate Roman Emperor.
    The Pope has one of the Imperial titles still and the structure of the Roman church is highly correlated with imperial structures. So Francis has as good a claim as anyone.
    I think Christmas Day 800 implies a better claim to be Emperor maker than actual Emperor.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,146
    So just to be clear, the Tory manifesto being trailed includes: tax cuts for the wealthiest generation, tax cuts for the most asset rich (CGT 0% for Landlords), tax cuts for the highest paid (NI cuts).

    The poor & young get national service, and a further increase in house prices. Feels like the Tories haven't accounted for the fact that older & richer people tend to have younger and poorer family in the 25% core vote strategy.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,342
    GOAT has been around for a while now - since 1992 when first used of Muhammed Ali - and ref. discussion yesterday, it’s applied to individuals in their own field rather than the greatest ever human being.

    So you can have both Bradman and Messi as GOATs. Or Mike Smithson on pb.com.

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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,559
    Eabhal said:

    Every time Fraser Nelson mentions that the top 1% contribute 28% of all income tax, it just serves as a reminder that the 1% are minted and the rest of the country isn't earning much at all.

    The same with this stat. Something has gone horribly wrong when pensioners are the biggest contributors of income tax.
    We have a crop of pensioners who put lots into pensions and as a result quite a few have high pension incomes in retirement.

    Which is better than them all starving in heaps.

  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105

    ToryJim said:

    DougSeal said:

    Ha, just searched for Heraclius in Google and the caption below the first auto-suggestion was "Former Roman Emperor".

    Well, he's not going to be the incumbent, is he?

    Interesting. I’m sure there’s a nutter out there somewhere who claims to be the legitimate Roman Emperor.
    The Pope has one of the Imperial titles still and the structure of the Roman church is highly correlated with imperial structures. So Francis has as good a claim as anyone.
    I think Christmas Day 800 implies a better claim to be Emperor maker than actual Emperor.
    Possibly, although given the only continuity with the Western Roman Empire was the church and the Pope as the head thereof. One could argue that by creating Charlemagne as Roman Emperor the Pope was simply granting authority that ultimately sat with him.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,464
    TOPPING said:

    @TSE glad to see you're back in the game. Take it easy on the way back. Many a recovery has been put back by impatient patients.

    Ta.

    Don't worry, my parents are way ahead of you.
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    lockhimuplockhimup Posts: 51
    Stocky said:

    On a related note, Paddy Power are quoting Reform to win zero seats at 4/1. Personally, I think there's some value in that. With Labour polling so high, it's quite possible that where Reform take a sizeable chunk of the Tory vote, either Labour captures the seat from miles back or the Tories hang on.

    FPTP isn't a normal distribution type chance thing: constituency results are related contingencies. If Reform underperforms their polling, which has been a theme in by-elections (although that might have something to do with their limited activist base that's less relevant to GE's), I think a shut-out is a bigger chance than the one-in-five that PP make it.

    Yes but 5.8 nil Reform seats on Bf and 5.4 on Smarkets.
    Great value considering the price on neither Farage or Anderson winning is around 5/2.
    Very hard to see another reform candidate winning if those two both lose
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,670
    How well does government funding of research work, you ask? (OK, maybe you didn't, but tough.)

    I've just received an email from the UK government confirming funding for a 6-month project on AI in healthcare. It says, "You can start your project on 1 March 2024."
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761

    Good morning, everyone.

    This does remind me of the F1 joke about Latifi being the GOAT, and hardcore fans sending 'positive' messages to non-fan influencers invited to F1 races encouraging them to support Senna and other long departed drivers.

    The more jokes we can play on the idiots who turn up for the freebie knowing nothing about the sport, the better.

    You literally can’t buy a ticket at any price to be on the grid before the race, it’s reserved for invitees only, and most of these idiots fail to understand that there’s millions of actual fans who would swap places in a heartbeat.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,844
    As for SKS if you look carefully, or rather, just read what they have been saying you will see that most of the Lab announcements have to date been more or less regurgitating Cons policies. Housing (mortgage guarantee scheme), prisons (finishing the Cons 20,000 new places policy), and childcare ("enhanced entitlements).

    If they decide to raise CGT then that will be an out there policy (out there with the LibDems but distinct from the Cons).

    In such an environment, similarly to Gordon's 1997 spending pledge, he is giving himself time to play in before he moves forward with his own policies. Whatever the hell they are going to be.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,990
    Stanley Baldwin in 1931 won an additional 210 seats on a swing of 14.4% from Labour to the National Government.

    It does seem increasingly likely that Starmer might challenge both of these records making him the GOAT election winner.

    The largest fall in share of the vote for the Tories is currently 11.6% in 1945. It seems almost inevitable that Sunak is going to do worse than that. Boris won 43.6% in 2019 so 32% is the target here. It looks a long way off right now.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,464
    lockhimup said:

    Stocky said:

    On a related note, Paddy Power are quoting Reform to win zero seats at 4/1. Personally, I think there's some value in that. With Labour polling so high, it's quite possible that where Reform take a sizeable chunk of the Tory vote, either Labour captures the seat from miles back or the Tories hang on.

    FPTP isn't a normal distribution type chance thing: constituency results are related contingencies. If Reform underperforms their polling, which has been a theme in by-elections (although that might have something to do with their limited activist base that's less relevant to GE's), I think a shut-out is a bigger chance than the one-in-five that PP make it.

    Yes but 5.8 nil Reform seats on Bf and 5.4 on Smarkets.
    Great value considering the price on neither Farage or Anderson winning is around 5/2.
    Very hard to see another reform candidate winning if those two both lose
    Rotherham.
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    lockhimuplockhimup Posts: 51

    lockhimup said:

    Stocky said:

    On a related note, Paddy Power are quoting Reform to win zero seats at 4/1. Personally, I think there's some value in that. With Labour polling so high, it's quite possible that where Reform take a sizeable chunk of the Tory vote, either Labour captures the seat from miles back or the Tories hang on.

    FPTP isn't a normal distribution type chance thing: constituency results are related contingencies. If Reform underperforms their polling, which has been a theme in by-elections (although that might have something to do with their limited activist base that's less relevant to GE's), I think a shut-out is a bigger chance than the one-in-five that PP make it.

    Yes but 5.8 nil Reform seats on Bf and 5.4 on Smarkets.
    Great value considering the price on neither Farage or Anderson winning is around 5/2.
    Very hard to see another reform candidate winning if those two both lose
    Rotherham.
    Forgot about that!
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,844
    edited June 11
    Heathener said:

    boulay said:

    If Labour want to be let off the hook for the UKs involvement in the GFC then they need to acknowledge Covid and Ukraine, no?

    The way I look at it, Labour faced 9/11 and the GFC, the Tories faced Covid and Ukraine, plus Brexit which was entirely self-inflicted. Shit happens.
    You think 9/11 or the GFC compares to Covid?
    Most of the employees of this Country were at home for months and months getting 80% pay, paid for by the Government. It was by far the biggest event any Government has had to deal with since WW2. The fact that the tories will be handing over an economy with 4.4% unemployment and 2% inflation just 3 years after Covid is something that they should get credit for, which of course they wont.
    This is slightly disingenuous. You know, or should do, that there are serious problems in the pipeline which is one reason Sunak went now. The figures in the autumn won’t look so good and there are massive structural problems in the UK economy.

    Ref. Ukraine, had we plural (= Joe Biden with a little help from his allies) not so disastrously and precipitously withdrawn from Afghanistan there’s a strong chance Putin would have thought longer and harder about invading Ukraine.

    Biden told the world that we weren’t going to police it. It greenlit Putin. Not quite as big a foreign policy blunder as the invasion of Iraq, but not too far behind.
    Disagree. Growth was better than expected, inflation ticking down, interest rates expected to come down, and now good employment stats. That is why Rishi thought he would go to the country now.

    Not that most people care because they view the Cons as tired and the country in need of change. Doesn't change the sound-ish economic basis upon which Rishi went called the election when he did.
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    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,431
    Chameleon said:

    So just to be clear, the Tory manifesto being trailed includes: tax cuts for the wealthiest generation, tax cuts for the most asset rich (CGT 0% for Landlords), tax cuts for the highest paid (NI cuts).

    The poor & young get national service, and a further increase in house prices. Feels like the Tories haven't accounted for the fact that older & richer people tend to have younger and poorer family in the 25% core vote strategy.

    Of course they haven't. Sucking rich pensioner cock has worked a treat for them up until now. Why would they change?
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    stodgestodge Posts: 13,112
    Eabhal said:

    Every time Fraser Nelson mentions that the top 1% contribute 28% of all income tax, it just serves as a reminder that the 1% are minted and the rest of the country isn't earning much at all.

    The same with this stat. Something has gone horribly wrong when pensioners are the biggest contributors of income tax.
    The top 1% pay more because they earn more or have more which is subject to tax. Even after paying these huge amounts of tax they will have much more than the rest of us.

    We also have the absurd situation of multinational companies who pay next to no tax here but are happy to use the UK to build their profits?
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,126

    Ha, just searched for Heraclius in Google and the caption below the first auto-suggestion was "Former Roman Emperor".

    Well, he's not going to be the incumbent, is he?

    It just happens that one of the very recent really great and ground breaking books on late classical history centres on Heraclius. James Howard-Johnston's 'The last great war of antiquity' (2021) is a model of how it is done, and a reminder that proper traditional (and readable) scholarship is still around.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,223
    edited June 11
    Heathener said:
    Interesting piece. I wonder if she will make an appearance towards the end of the campaign?

    Edit: The 'likes' are back!
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    Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 81

    How well does government funding of research work, you ask? (OK, maybe you didn't, but tough.)

    I've just received an email from the UK government confirming funding for a 6-month project on AI in healthcare. It says, "You can start your project on 1 March 2024."

    China should just gobble us up, at this point.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,126
    Happy myxomatosis riddled rabbit out of the hat day.
    I can see Tory HQ now - now THIS they are going to love.
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    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,431
    TOPPING said:

    As for SKS if you look carefully, or rather, just read what they have been saying you will see that most of the Lab announcements have to date been more or less regurgitating Cons policies. Housing (mortgage guarantee scheme), prisons (finishing the Cons 20,000 new places policy), and childcare ("enhanced entitlements).

    If they decide to raise CGT then that will be an out there policy (out there with the LibDems but distinct from the Cons).

    In such an environment, similarly to Gordon's 1997 spending pledge, he is giving himself time to play in before he moves forward with his own policies. Whatever the hell they are going to be.

    On the face of it, Labour looks like a change offering in PR terms but an awful lot of continuity in actuality. However, Starmer does have past form for offering policies to please the electorate and then dumping a load of them once he has won.

    He tacked right after securing the Labour leadership, so it's also possible he might tack left again after winning the general election. We'll just have to wait and see.
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    GaussianGaussian Posts: 814
    edited June 11

    Ha, just searched for Heraclius in Google and the caption below the first auto-suggestion was "Former Roman Emperor".

    Well, he's not going to be the incumbent, is he?

    Vlad's the current one, isn't he? Third Rome and all that.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,126
    https://x.com/JAHeale/status/1800446764602003786?s=19
    Lol. Beware parcel carriers for they may be canvassing!
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    Heathener said:

    GOAT has been around for a while now - since 1992 when first used of Muhammed Ali - and ref. discussion yesterday, it’s applied to individuals in their own field rather than the greatest ever human being.

    So you can have both Bradman and Messi as GOATs. Or Mike Smithson on pb.com.

    It’s a very presentist concept, and takes little or no account of time outside of current living memory let alone deeper time. That’s fine in say motorsports which doesn’t have vast amounts of history, but referring to say Meryl Streep as a GOAT is pretty silly because how can you be certain you aren’t ignorant of the acting feats of the golden age of Greek dramatists. Also it is pretty silly to claim something is the acme of its type for all time when all time has yet to be fully unfolded. So there may yet be greater exemplars of football and cricketing prowess than those you mentioned in the far or not so far future.
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,839

    I offer a sincere apology to @Heathener for saying she was Leon. I did genuinely believe you were but I accept I was wrong. My apologies to you.

    Are you hanging up your boots as Leonfinder General?
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    Gaussian said:

    Ha, just searched for Heraclius in Google and the caption below the first auto-suggestion was "Former Roman Emperor".

    Well, he's not going to be the incumbent, is he?

    Vlad's the current one, isn't he? Third Rome and all that.
    Yeah but that’s national chauvinist nonsense.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,400

    I think even SKS in private would probably admit that the eventual result will owe a lot to the Tories’ self-inflicted damage and their idiocy. He deserves credit where it’s due - he has played a very good hand to maximise his chances of winning, and winning pretty big. What happens next will certainly be the big question though.

    And Covid, the economic costs of getting through are now having to be paid for and then Ukraine.
    I like Starmer. He's a bit too earnest in his public face, a bit too Mr Angry about how bad it all is, but I get the feeling his heart is in the right place. Despite Curry(non)gate I think he would have overseen a more cautious government in 2020 (rightly or wrongly, but certainly more seriously).

    He is also, pace Napoleon, a lucky general. Look at the material he has to work with! Johnson imploding as his true nature oozed from every sweaty pore. Truss. Then the calm, sensible manager that turns out to be absolutely fecking useless, with no political instinct at all.

    Starmer's problem will be on July 5th. What they hell does he do to turn the country around?
    One of my main concerns about Starmer is that his primary concern appears to be how things will look, rather than whether they are right. Well, surprise, he's a politician, I guess.

    We all need to hope that he shows due regard to planting acorns, rather than simply scrambling around trying to make things look as good as possible in the short term.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,459
    edited June 11
    Brains trust:

    Does the home address if published (I think they can opt out?) on a Statement of Persons Nominated and Notice of Poll have to be the candidate's, or can it be an agent?

    Aside: our Lib Dem candidate gives an address 10-20 miles away. Paper candidate? :smile: .
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    GaussianGaussian Posts: 814
    ToryJim said:

    Gaussian said:

    Ha, just searched for Heraclius in Google and the caption below the first auto-suggestion was "Former Roman Emperor".

    Well, he's not going to be the incumbent, is he?

    Vlad's the current one, isn't he? Third Rome and all that.
    Yeah but that’s national chauvinist nonsense.
    Don't knock it, national chauvinist nonsense is all they've got.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    TOPPING said:

    Heathener said:

    boulay said:

    If Labour want to be let off the hook for the UKs involvement in the GFC then they need to acknowledge Covid and Ukraine, no?

    The way I look at it, Labour faced 9/11 and the GFC, the Tories faced Covid and Ukraine, plus Brexit which was entirely self-inflicted. Shit happens.
    You think 9/11 or the GFC compares to Covid?
    Most of the employees of this Country were at home for months and months getting 80% pay, paid for by the Government. It was by far the biggest event any Government has had to deal with since WW2. The fact that the tories will be handing over an economy with 4.4% unemployment and 2% inflation just 3 years after Covid is something that they should get credit for, which of course they wont.
    This is slightly disingenuous. You know, or should do, that there are serious problems in the pipeline which is one reason Sunak went now. The figures in the autumn won’t look so good and there are massive structural problems in the UK economy.

    Ref. Ukraine, had we plural (= Joe Biden with a little help from his allies) not so disastrously and precipitously withdrawn from Afghanistan there’s a strong chance Putin would have thought longer and harder about invading Ukraine.

    Biden told the world that we weren’t going to police it. It greenlit Putin. Not quite as big a foreign policy blunder as the invasion of Iraq, but not too far behind.
    Disagree. Growth was better than expected, inflation ticking down, interest rates expected to come down, and now good employment stats. That is why Rishi thought he would go to the country now.

    Not that most people care because they view the Cons as tired and the country in need of change. Doesn't change the sound-ish economic basis upon which Rishi went called the election when he did.
    It was the same in 1997, the economy was going well but it did little for the incumbent.
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    CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 383

    How well does government funding of research work, you ask? (OK, maybe you didn't, but tough.)

    I've just received an email from the UK government confirming funding for a 6-month project on AI in healthcare. It says, "You can start your project on 1 March 2024."

    I just made the Leverhulme awards list, with a project on sleeping and institutional embedding. However, I got ZERO £££ because the allocation was made by a randomizer AI in the last round (probably due to a shortage of funds).... just resubmitted for another go..... sigh
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,791

    Heathener said:
    Because she is not standing for election so we have no need to know anything about her? I truly hate the tendency to have partners of politicians somehow involved.
    Well said, agree completely.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761

    If you could evade CGT by selling to tenants, surely the estate agents and lawyers will quickly introduce a scheme where you rent for a few months before purchase?

    On London properties CGT bills of £100k+ won't be that uncommon, so you could even let it out for six months for free and be a winner.

    Yep, there’s so many loopholes in that announcement, that were immediately obvious.

    It does appear that CCHQ were completely blindsided by the election announcement, as they had nothing ready to go. One of the key advantages of incumbency, that you know the timeline, totally lost. The other parties would all have been ready to go for a May election.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,842
    Selebian said:

    I offer a sincere apology to @Heathener for saying she was Leon. I did genuinely believe you were but I accept I was wrong. My apologies to you.

    Are you hanging up your boots as Leonfinder General?
    He doesn't have all these "sock puppets", it's a PB urban myth. One he does have is tridentsubcommander - who once in a blue moon will pop up and post "test".

    Most amusing.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761

    TOPPING said:

    Heathener said:

    boulay said:

    If Labour want to be let off the hook for the UKs involvement in the GFC then they need to acknowledge Covid and Ukraine, no?

    The way I look at it, Labour faced 9/11 and the GFC, the Tories faced Covid and Ukraine, plus Brexit which was entirely self-inflicted. Shit happens.
    You think 9/11 or the GFC compares to Covid?
    Most of the employees of this Country were at home for months and months getting 80% pay, paid for by the Government. It was by far the biggest event any Government has had to deal with since WW2. The fact that the tories will be handing over an economy with 4.4% unemployment and 2% inflation just 3 years after Covid is something that they should get credit for, which of course they wont.
    This is slightly disingenuous. You know, or should do, that there are serious problems in the pipeline which is one reason Sunak went now. The figures in the autumn won’t look so good and there are massive structural problems in the UK economy.

    Ref. Ukraine, had we plural (= Joe Biden with a little help from his allies) not so disastrously and precipitously withdrawn from Afghanistan there’s a strong chance Putin would have thought longer and harder about invading Ukraine.

    Biden told the world that we weren’t going to police it. It greenlit Putin. Not quite as big a foreign policy blunder as the invasion of Iraq, but not too far behind.
    Disagree. Growth was better than expected, inflation ticking down, interest rates expected to come down, and now good employment stats. That is why Rishi thought he would go to the country now.

    Not that most people care because they view the Cons as tired and the country in need of change. Doesn't change the sound-ish economic basis upon which Rishi went called the election when he did.
    And as the holiday season gets going, especially in Scotland, it’s a damn’ fool time to have an election.

    And Good Morning everyone, from cheerful (reasonably) OKC, since he and Mrs C are celebrating their 62nd wedding anniversary.
    Wow, congratulations to you both, have a wonderful day whatever you do.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,375
    MattW said:

    Brains trust:

    Does the home address if published (I think they can opt out?) on a Statement of Persons Nominated and Notice of Poll have to be the candidate's, or can it be an agent?

    I was told, when an agent many years, ago, that it was where the candidate lived with his wife. As my candidate at the time lived in Brussels this caused a bit of comment.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 13,112
    TOPPING said:

    Heathener said:

    boulay said:

    If Labour want to be let off the hook for the UKs involvement in the GFC then they need to acknowledge Covid and Ukraine, no?

    The way I look at it, Labour faced 9/11 and the GFC, the Tories faced Covid and Ukraine, plus Brexit which was entirely self-inflicted. Shit happens.
    You think 9/11 or the GFC compares to Covid?
    Most of the employees of this Country were at home for months and months getting 80% pay, paid for by the Government. It was by far the biggest event any Government has had to deal with since WW2. The fact that the tories will be handing over an economy with 4.4% unemployment and 2% inflation just 3 years after Covid is something that they should get credit for, which of course they wont.
    This is slightly disingenuous. You know, or should do, that there are serious problems in the pipeline which is one reason Sunak went now. The figures in the autumn won’t look so good and there are massive structural problems in the UK economy.

    Ref. Ukraine, had we plural (= Joe Biden with a little help from his allies) not so disastrously and precipitously withdrawn from Afghanistan there’s a strong chance Putin would have thought longer and harder about invading Ukraine.

    Biden told the world that we weren’t going to police it. It greenlit Putin. Not quite as big a foreign policy blunder as the invasion of Iraq, but not too far behind.
    Disagree. Growth was better than expected, inflation ticking down, interest rates expected to come down, and now good employment stats. That is why Rishi thought he would go to the country now.

    Not that most people care because they view the Cons as tired and the country in need of change. Doesn't change the sound-ish economic basis upon which Rishi went called the election when he did.
    I don't think the situation on interest rates is clear yet. It's often been said but in 1997 the economy was in a good place as well, indeed, far better than now, you could argue.

    Back then we didn't have the mountain of debt we've accumulated nor the ongoing deficit which continues to build the mountain. The problem was many Conservatives were quite happy to see huge amounts of borrowing at very low rates but didn't realise or understand we might have to pay the money back one day at a higher rate.

    The economic Covid response, though well meaning, has had consequences.
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,132
    Heathener said:

    biggles said:

    Heathener said:

    nico679 said:

    Wage growth remained flat at 6% and with bonuses went up. So less chance of an interest rate cut before the election .

    Unemployment edged up slightly to 4.4% .

    Not the best news for Sunak when he publishes his fxck those on sickness and disability benefit to dish out NI cuts manifesto this morning .

    There’s no reason to be less abled or suffering …

    … when you have $1bn.

    This is the reason why I pretty intensely dislike him. The failure to empathise or comprehend that the rest of the country doesn’t operate in his world. We see it in almost everything he says and does, from the myopic Maths focus to ruthless attitude to sickness and disability; from private helicopter travel to abandoning D-Day.

    And when challenged about it all he gets hoity-toity.

    Was this really the best the Conservative Party could do? Ever since David Cameron fell on his sword they’ve had 4 totally unsuitable leaders.
    It’s amusing how people who never would have voted for Cameron now go all misty eyed at his name.
    I voted for David Cameron’s Conservatives in both 2010 and 2015, so spare (me) the snide aside, ta. He also made me money from successful bets :)@TSE note

    Until Brexit, and later Greenshill, I had a lot of respect for him. He was at least competent which is all I mainly require from a leader.

    I know austerity is criticised but we do have to balance the books, you know. Or at least we used to have to until the tories decided to break Britain.
    So you voted for large welfare cuts with a long-term cap, but you’re criticising Sunak for… welfare cuts?
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,342
    ToryJim said:

    Heathener said:

    GOAT has been around for a while now - since 1992 when first used of Muhammed Ali - and ref. discussion yesterday, it’s applied to individuals in their own field rather than the greatest ever human being.

    So you can have both Bradman and Messi as GOATs. Or Mike Smithson on pb.com.

    It’s a very presentist concept, and takes little or no account of time outside of current living memory let alone deeper time. That’s fine in say motorsports which doesn’t have vast amounts of history, but referring to say Meryl Streep as a GOAT is pretty silly because how can you be certain you aren’t ignorant of the acting feats of the golden age of Greek dramatists. Also it is pretty silly to claim something is the acme of its type for all time when all time has yet to be fully unfolded. So there may yet be greater exemplars of football and cricketing prowess than those you mentioned in the far or not so far future.
    I’ve never heard anyone take it quite so seriously as that.

    It’s usually a bit of light-hearted bants.

    Messi is the GOAT
    Nah it’s Ronaldo

    etc.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,342

    Heathener said:
    Because she is not standing for election so we have no need to know anything about her? I truly hate the tendency to have partners of politicians somehow involved.
    Did you read it? That’s the whole point of the article: explaining her reasoning for not being involved.
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,839
    edited June 11
    kinabalu said:

    Selebian said:

    I offer a sincere apology to @Heathener for saying she was Leon. I did genuinely believe you were but I accept I was wrong. My apologies to you.

    Are you hanging up your boots as Leonfinder General?
    He doesn't have all these "sock puppets", it's a PB urban myth. One he does have is tridentsubcommander - who once in a blue moon will pop up and post "test".

    Most amusing.
    For some reason I'd always assumed that was Malmesbury or maybe FrancisUrquhart, seems too subtle to Leon, he'd surely post "LAUNCH!" or "BRACE!" :lol:

    I'm also of the view that Leon generally only has one ID at a time - there have been brief periods when a couple alternate or are more or less concurrent, I believe, particularly when he's going through a rebirth.

    I, on the other hand, have lots :wink:
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    Gaussian said:

    ToryJim said:

    Gaussian said:

    Ha, just searched for Heraclius in Google and the caption below the first auto-suggestion was "Former Roman Emperor".

    Well, he's not going to be the incumbent, is he?

    Vlad's the current one, isn't he? Third Rome and all that.
    Yeah but that’s national chauvinist nonsense.
    Don't knock it, national chauvinist nonsense is all they've got.
    Indeed, especially as they seem determined to exacerbate their demographic problems by hurling significant numbers of their prime male population into a grave. It’s insane.
This discussion has been closed.