On a related note, Paddy Power are quoting Reform to win zero seats at 4/1. Personally, I think there's some value in that. With Labour polling so high, it's quite possible that where Reform take a sizeable chunk of the Tory vote, either Labour captures the seat from miles back or the Tories hang on.
FPTP isn't a normal distribution type chance thing: constituency results are related contingencies. If Reform underperforms their polling, which has been a theme in by-elections (although that might have something to do with their limited activist base that's less relevant to GE's), I think a shut-out is a bigger chance than the one-in-five that PP make it.
Yes but 5.8 nil Reform seats on Bf and 5.4 on Smarkets.
Wage growth remained flat at 6% and with bonuses went up. So less chance of an interest rate cut before the election .
Unemployment edged up slightly to 4.4% .
Not the best news for Sunak when he publishes his fxck those on sickness and disability benefit to dish out NI cuts manifesto this morning .
There’s no reason to be less abled or suffering …
… when you have $1bn.
This is the reason why I pretty intensely dislike him. The failure to empathise or comprehend that the rest of the country doesn’t operate in his world. We see it in almost everything he says and does, from the myopic Maths focus to ruthless attitude to sickness and disability; from private helicopter travel to abandoning D-Day.
And when challenged about it all he gets hoity-toity.
Was this really the best the Conservative Party could do? Ever since David Cameron fell on his sword they’ve had 4 totally unsuitable leaders.
It’s amusing how people who never would have voted for Cameron now go all misty eyed at his name.
I voted for David Cameron’s Conservatives in both 2010 and 2015, so spare (me) the snide aside, ta. He also made me money from successful bets @TSE note
Until Brexit, and later Greenshill, I had a lot of respect for him. He was at least competent which is all I mainly require from a leader.
I know austerity is criticised but we do have to balance the books, you know. Or at least we used to have to until the tories decided to break Britain.
Wage growth remained flat at 6% and with bonuses went up. So less chance of an interest rate cut before the election .
Unemployment edged up slightly to 4.4% .
Not the best news for Sunak when he publishes his fxck those on sickness and disability benefit to dish out NI cuts manifesto this morning .
There’s no reason to be less abled or suffering …
… when you have $1bn.
This is the reason why I pretty intensely dislike him. The failure to empathise or comprehend that the rest of the country doesn’t operate in his world. We see it in almost everything he says and does, from the myopic Maths focus to ruthless attitude to sickness and disability; from private helicopter travel to abandoning D-Day.
And when challenged about it all he gets hoity-toity.
Was this really the best the Conservative Party could do? Ever since David Cameron fell on his sword they’ve had 4 totally unsuitable leaders.
It’s amusing how people who never would have voted for Cameron now go all misty eyed at his name.
I voted for David Cameron’s Conservatives in both 2010 and 2015, so spare (me) the snide aside, ta. He also made me money from successful bets @TSE note
Until Brexit, and later Greenshill, I had a lot of respect for him. He was at least competent which is all I mainly require from a leader.
I know austerity is criticised but we do have to balance the books, you know. Or at least we used to have to until the tories decided to break Britain.
So you voted for large welfare cuts
I voted for competence.
It’s not asking for much.
You also voted for the EU referendum, so why did Brexit change your opinion of Cameron? Do you think he messed up the renegotiation?
I offer a sincere apology to @Heathener for saying she was Leon. I did genuinely believe you were but I accept I was wrong. My apologies to you.
Are you hanging up your boots as Leonfinder General?
He doesn't have all these "sock puppets", it's a PB urban myth. One he does have is tridentsubcommander - who once in a blue moon will pop up and post "test".
Most amusing.
For some reason I'd always assumed that was Malmesbury or maybe FrancisUrquhart, seems too subtle to Leon, he'd surely post "LAUNCH!" or "BRACE!"
I'm also of the view that Leon generally only has one ID at a time - there have been brief periods when a couple alternate or are more or less concurrent, I believe, particularly when he's going through a rebirth.
I, on the other hand, have lots
Has he been banned overnight after that foul-mouthed rant at various seasoned posters? Or does he just have a coke hangover?
I’m a bit suspicious about Tweedledee’s sudden appearance tbh.
Wage growth remained flat at 6% and with bonuses went up. So less chance of an interest rate cut before the election .
Unemployment edged up slightly to 4.4% .
Not the best news for Sunak when he publishes his fxck those on sickness and disability benefit to dish out NI cuts manifesto this morning .
There’s no reason to be less abled or suffering …
… when you have $1bn.
This is the reason why I pretty intensely dislike him. The failure to empathise or comprehend that the rest of the country doesn’t operate in his world. We see it in almost everything he says and does, from the myopic Maths focus to ruthless attitude to sickness and disability; from private helicopter travel to abandoning D-Day.
And when challenged about it all he gets hoity-toity.
Was this really the best the Conservative Party could do? Ever since David Cameron fell on his sword they’ve had 4 totally unsuitable leaders.
It’s amusing how people who never would have voted for Cameron now go all misty eyed at his name.
I voted for David Cameron’s Conservatives in both 2010 and 2015, so spare (me) the snide aside, ta. He also made me money from successful bets @TSE note
Until Brexit, and later Greenshill, I had a lot of respect for him. He was at least competent which is all I mainly require from a leader.
I know austerity is criticised but we do have to balance the books, you know. Or at least we used to have to until the tories decided to break Britain.
So you voted for large welfare cuts with a long-term cap, but you’re criticising Sunak for… welfare cuts?
Austerity was the right policy in 2010. By 2015ish it was a bad policy. Arguable exactly when it flipped but it was a long time ago and the Conservative party have been muddled and underperforming since then.
My main criticism of Cameron/Osborne would be that whilst they were not overly ideological in the policies they chose, they became overly wedded with the policies they initially adopted and didn't adapt to the changing landscape.
How well does government funding of research work, you ask? (OK, maybe you didn't, but tough.)
I've just received an email from the UK government confirming funding for a 6-month project on AI in healthcare. It says, "You can start your project on 1 March 2024."
You mean you haven't already started?
Most research grant applications propose research that is already well underway, to minimise the chances of getting embarrasingly poor results.
I offer a sincere apology to @Heathener for saying she was Leon. I did genuinely believe you were but I accept I was wrong. My apologies to you.
Are you hanging up your boots as Leonfinder General?
He doesn't have all these "sock puppets", it's a PB urban myth. One he does have is tridentsubcommander - who once in a blue moon will pop up and post "test".
Most amusing.
For some reason I'd always assumed that was Malmesbury or maybe FrancisUrquhart, seems too subtle to Leon, he'd surely post "LAUNCH!" or "BRACE!"
I'm also of the view that Leon generally only has one ID at a time - there have been brief periods when a couple alternate or are more or less concurrent, I believe, particularly when he's going through a rebirth.
Mr. Gaussian, Third Rome is only believed by those who prefer propaganda to history.
Ms (Mr? Apologies, I forget) Kirk, that book sounds intriguing, thanks for mentioning it. I do feel very sorry for Heraclius. Manages to win a war from a terrible position, recovers all lost territory, then six minutes later Islam's born and an army of Arabs annihilates the Persians then takes most of the Eastern Roman Empire.
I offer a sincere apology to @Heathener for saying she was Leon. I did genuinely believe you were but I accept I was wrong. My apologies to you.
Are you hanging up your boots as Leonfinder General?
He doesn't have all these "sock puppets", it's a PB urban myth. One he does have is tridentsubcommander - who once in a blue moon will pop up and post "test".
Most amusing.
For some reason I'd always assumed that was Malmesbury or maybe FrancisUrquhart, seems too subtle to Leon, he'd surely post "LAUNCH!" or "BRACE!"
I'm also of the view that Leon generally only has one ID at a time - there have been brief periods when a couple alternate or are more or less concurrent, I believe, particularly when he's going through a rebirth.
I reckon the final margin will be a bit under 20%. In the last 2 weeks Reform will drift back (and Green will continue their slow decline, especially if there's a successful Gaza ceasefire) and that will give back a few percentage points to the Tories and one or two to Labour. In the competition I have Tory 31% and I think Labour 40%.
Though Rishi does keep trying his damndest to stretch that winning margin further.
All the Tory wipeout scenarios come from them getting very low vote share, rather than Labour getting a very high one. They will inevitably drift back up which is why an ELE is simply not on the cards. But I don't expect Labour to drift down particularly.
"They will inevitably drift back up"
While I agree that *surely* that is what is going to happen (?!), I had assumed that we would have seen that effect by now.
In fact, we've had 20 of the 43 days of the campaign - nearly half way through - and things are only getting worse.
This is my view. Take the latest three opinion polls as a random sample and comparing to the last pre-campaign poll for each firm.
Redfield & Wilton. Tories on 19%, down 4, Labour lead is up by 4. JL Partners. Tories on 24%, down 2, Labour lead is up by 2. Deltapoll. Tories on 21%, down 2, Labour lead is up by 3.
Obviously, in the privacy of the polling booth, strange things sometimes happen. The pencil hovers, the voter is wracked by uncertainty and doubt.
I'm still uncertain about the outcome, but the uncertainty is symmetrical. There could be late moves further against the Tories, or reluctant Tories might return to the fold. An ELE is definitely possible if Sunak's campaign continues to be poor.
Wage growth remained flat at 6% and with bonuses went up. So less chance of an interest rate cut before the election .
Unemployment edged up slightly to 4.4% .
Not the best news for Sunak when he publishes his fxck those on sickness and disability benefit to dish out NI cuts manifesto this morning .
There’s no reason to be less abled or suffering …
… when you have $1bn.
This is the reason why I pretty intensely dislike him. The failure to empathise or comprehend that the rest of the country doesn’t operate in his world. We see it in almost everything he says and does, from the myopic Maths focus to ruthless attitude to sickness and disability; from private helicopter travel to abandoning D-Day.
And when challenged about it all he gets hoity-toity.
Was this really the best the Conservative Party could do? Ever since David Cameron fell on his sword they’ve had 4 totally unsuitable leaders.
It’s amusing how people who never would have voted for Cameron now go all misty eyed at his name.
I voted for David Cameron’s Conservatives in both 2010 and 2015, so spare (me) the snide aside, ta. He also made me money from successful bets @TSE note
Until Brexit, and later Greenshill, I had a lot of respect for him. He was at least competent which is all I mainly require from a leader.
I know austerity is criticised but we do have to balance the books, you know. Or at least we used to have to until the tories decided to break Britain.
So you voted for large welfare cuts
I voted for competence.
It’s not asking for much.
You also voted for the EU referendum, so why did Brexit change your opinion of Cameron? Do you think he messed up the renegotiation?
I think when you put your X in the box you usually accept that there are a range of policies, some you’ll like others you may be ambivalent about, and a few you may be holding your nose over.
Maybe that’s a difficult concept for the Party workers on here to understand but a great many of us in this country, especially nowadays, don’t have a Party allegiance.
I’d forgotten he promised the Ref on leaving the EU but like Cameron himself, at the time I didn’t think the country would vote to do so. The rest of that and what happened with the campaigns is one for history now: a bit tedious on here.
I will admit though that I didn’t make my voting decision in 2015 until I was literally walking to the polling station. It was that difficult to decide.
Anyhoooo … this is boring. And one or two are needlessly grumpy this morning. So I’ll head out and do my bits n’ bobs.
I offer a sincere apology to @Heathener for saying she was Leon. I did genuinely believe you were but I accept I was wrong. My apologies to you.
Are you hanging up your boots as Leonfinder General?
He doesn't have all these "sock puppets", it's a PB urban myth. One he does have is tridentsubcommander - who once in a blue moon will pop up and post "test".
Most amusing.
For some reason I'd always assumed that was Malmesbury or maybe FrancisUrquhart, seems too subtle to Leon, he'd surely post "LAUNCH!" or "BRACE!"
I'm also of the view that Leon generally only has one ID at a time - there have been brief periods when a couple alternate or are more or less concurrent, I believe, particularly when he's going through a rebirth.
I don't think there was one. Patrick English promised something 'super exciting' coming but I read that as some new type of interactive poll or new type of projection rather than an imminent poll. They are due today or tomorrow anyway
I offer a sincere apology to @Heathener for saying she was Leon. I did genuinely believe you were but I accept I was wrong. My apologies to you.
Are you hanging up your boots as Leonfinder General?
He doesn't have all these "sock puppets", it's a PB urban myth. One he does have is tridentsubcommander - who once in a blue moon will pop up and post "test".
Most amusing.
For some reason I'd always assumed that was Malmesbury or maybe FrancisUrquhart, seems too subtle to Leon, he'd surely post "LAUNCH!" or "BRACE!"
I'm also of the view that Leon generally only has one ID at a time - there have been brief periods when a couple alternate or are more or less concurrent, I believe, particularly when he's going through a rebirth.
I, on the other hand, have lots
Malmesbury or FU? No, they are serious serious guys. But, yes, spot on viz Leon. Serial monogamist. As for you, ok I'm on the lookout now then. It's my speciality so I'll soon bust you.
But anyway, enough of the fluff, there's an election on and what an election it is shaping up to be. Is SKS, this relatable man from an ordinary background, no public school, no Oxbridge, is this decent, clever, diligent, non-showy son of a toolmaker really about to win the biggest landslide victory in British electoral history? He just might, you know.
On the subject of people on here having multiple IDs, I assume the mods can see the IP addresses and locations of posters, also their email addresses ofc.
Does using a VPN mask the former? Does that mean a person using two IDs would need to switch between or in and out of VPNs to avoid simple detection?
I'm just curious. Using multiple IDs coterminously should be banned if possible imo - it messes with the ethos of the site.
I offer a sincere apology to @Heathener for saying she was Leon. I did genuinely believe you were but I accept I was wrong. My apologies to you.
Are you hanging up your boots as Leonfinder General?
He doesn't have all these "sock puppets", it's a PB urban myth. One he does have is tridentsubcommander - who once in a blue moon will pop up and post "test".
Most amusing.
For some reason I'd always assumed that was Malmesbury or maybe FrancisUrquhart, seems too subtle to Leon, he'd surely post "LAUNCH!" or "BRACE!"
I'm also of the view that Leon generally only has one ID at a time - there have been brief periods when a couple alternate or are more or less concurrent, I believe, particularly when he's going through a rebirth.
I, on the other hand, have lots
Malmesbury or FU? No, they are serious serious guys. But, yes, spot on viz Leon. Serial monogamist. As for you, ok I'm on the lookout now then. It's my speciality so I'll soon bust you.
But anyway, enough of the fluff, there's an election on and what an election it is shaping up to be. Is SKS, this relatable man from an ordinary background, no public school, no Oxbridge, is this decent, clever, diligent, non-showy son of a toolmaker really about to win the biggest landslide victory in British electoral history? He just might, you know.
Another measure of whether Starmer might be the GOAT is whether he beats Attlee's 1945 seat gain of +239 (from the previous election).
Labour on 442 seats and Starmer's gained 240 seats; I think that's entirely possible.
(Whether or not he is the GOAT, he appears to be the LOAT. Still, a lucky general is a good general.)
Not really sure how much generalling Starmer is having to do. He’s basically up against the Judean People’s Front Crack Suicide Squad.
Whilst sitting there watching your opponents immolate themselves will win you an election, and probably very handsomely. It could mean that the shine comes off relatively more quickly than at other times. In 1935 and 1950 a party that had been seriously damaged in the previous election bounced back hard. 2001 shows that’s not guaranteed but it shouldn’t be ignored as a possibility.
On the subject of people on here having multiple IDs, I assume the mods can see the IP addresses and locations of posters, also their email addresses ofc.
Does using a VPN mask the former? Does that mean a person using two IDs would need to switch between or in and out of VPNs to avoid simple detection?
I'm just curious. Using multiple IDs coterminously should be banned if possible imo - it messes with the ethos of the site.
I see myself as slightly left-of-centre on social issues (or perhaps centrist...), and right-of-centre economically.
That should be perfect Conservative-voting territory. Sadly, there is absolutely nothing that could convince me to vote Conservative this year.
Fortunately there are seven candidates standing in my constituency this time; much better than three in 2019 (due to the Lib Dem/Green stitch-up...)
Incidentally, one of our candidates is one of the sixteen "Party of Women" candidates standing at this GE. So that should really be six options...
I see myself as left of centre on social issues and right of centre economically, although probably further right economically with some fairly extremely liberal social views - legalise drugs, trans self ID, etc. Quite what that makes me, I have no idea. Classically liberal on steroids, I guess.
Like you, there is nothing in the world that could convince me to vote Conservative this year, even though I'm pretty certain Labour will hit me with more taxes, we might at least get a competent government out of it. The Conservatives are no longer the party of business, nor are they the party of homeowners, nor are they the party of staying out of other people's business.
But the thing that has infuriated me most about the campaign so far is that neither the Tories nor Labour are talking anything sensible on immigration. I'm a metropolitan Londoner and I believe that a reasonable amount of immigration is good for the country, from both an economic and societal perspective. Unfortunately what we have is an unreasonable amount of immigration, that's unsustainable given the levels of infrastructure development in the country and also leaves me deeply worried about integration - concerns that have risen drastically since the rise of antisemitism since last year.
I wouldn't vote for the odious, dog whistling racists in Reform ('doesn't understand our culture', 'London taken over by Islamists' etc) but I think a serious conversation about immigration needs to be had, before our society's infrastructure and cultural cohesion begins to break down. So where do I go? Who do I vote for? I want to vote for a party that has answers on immigration, without hating immigrants.
It's genuinely infuriating, because it *is* a problem to which none of the main parties has an answer, and the only people willing to discuss it are dog-whistling racists. I'd like to see it tackled before it drives even more people into the arms of the far right.
If Labour want to be let off the hook for the UKs involvement in the GFC then they need to acknowledge Covid and Ukraine, no?
The way I look at it, Labour faced 9/11 and the GFC, the Tories faced Covid and Ukraine, plus Brexit which was entirely self-inflicted. Shit happens.
You think 9/11 or the GFC compares to Covid? Most of the employees of this Country were at home for months and months getting 80% pay, paid for by the Government. It was by far the biggest event any Government has had to deal with since WW2. The fact that the tories will be handing over an economy with 4.4% unemployment and 2% inflation just 3 years after Covid is something that they should get credit for, which of course they wont.
This is slightly disingenuous. You know, or should do, that there are serious problems in the pipeline which is one reason Sunak went now. The figures in the autumn won’t look so good and there are massive structural problems in the UK economy.
Ref. Ukraine, had we plural (= Joe Biden with a little help from his allies) not so disastrously and precipitously withdrawn from Afghanistan there’s a strong chance Putin would have thought longer and harder about invading Ukraine.
Biden told the world that we weren’t going to police it. It greenlit Putin. Not quite as big a foreign policy blunder as the invasion of Iraq, but not too far behind.
Disagree. Growth was better than expected, inflation ticking down, interest rates expected to come down, and now good employment stats. That is why Rishi thought he would go to the country now.
Not that most people care because they view the Cons as tired and the country in need of change. Doesn't change the sound-ish economic basis upon which Rishi went called the election when he did.
And as the holiday season gets going, especially in Scotland, it’s a damn’ fool time to have an election.
And Good Morning everyone, from cheerful (reasonably) OKC, since he and Mrs C are celebrating their 62nd wedding anniversary.
Congratulations and only another 3 for your second card from Charles and Camilla
If Labour want to be let off the hook for the UKs involvement in the GFC then they need to acknowledge Covid and Ukraine, no?
The way I look at it, Labour faced 9/11 and the GFC, the Tories faced Covid and Ukraine, plus Brexit which was entirely self-inflicted. Shit happens.
You think 9/11 or the GFC compares to Covid? Most of the employees of this Country were at home for months and months getting 80% pay, paid for by the Government. It was by far the biggest event any Government has had to deal with since WW2. The fact that the tories will be handing over an economy with 4.4% unemployment and 2% inflation just 3 years after Covid is something that they should get credit for, which of course they wont.
This is slightly disingenuous. You know, or should do, that there are serious problems in the pipeline which is one reason Sunak went now. The figures in the autumn won’t look so good and there are massive structural problems in the UK economy.
Ref. Ukraine, had we plural (= Joe Biden with a little help from his allies) not so disastrously and precipitously withdrawn from Afghanistan there’s a strong chance Putin would have thought longer and harder about invading Ukraine.
Biden told the world that we weren’t going to police it. It greenlit Putin. Not quite as big a foreign policy blunder as the invasion of Iraq, but not too far behind.
Disagree. Growth was better than expected, inflation ticking down, interest rates expected to come down, and now good employment stats. That is why Rishi thought he would go to the country now.
Not that most people care because they view the Cons as tired and the country in need of change. Doesn't change the sound-ish economic basis upon which Rishi went called the election when he did.
"Sound-ish economic" basis? The public finances are screwed for the next 4 years and to balance them requires a return to growth rates not seen for 2 decades, and/or swinging new public spending cuts and/or a sharp and sustained future rise in taxation. It's the worse economic legacy facing any incoming government since 1945.
That's the big picture, compared to which your points of short term detail hardly matter. But they're misleading too. Inflation is not "ticking down". The CPI will jump sharply in August when the July rate is published because the June 23 energy prices in the base for comparison will be replaced by much lower July 23 energy prices. When CPI goes back to around 3% I don't see interest rates coming down any time soon either. Even a small fall would still leave people currently renewing fixed rate mortgage deals facing very big increases compared to their old rates. But anyway the spectre of Sunak following a playbook reminiscent of Truss's unfunded tax cuts would spook the markets if they thought there was the remotest chance of him winning. As for employment stats, have you noticed how much economic inactivity has jumped?
Sunak went early when 20% behind in the polls because he knew the economic news was not getting better and going now he could fight an election promising illusory tax cuts rather than being exposed as the Emperor with no clothes when they failed to materialise in an Autumn 2024 pre-election budget.
Another measure of whether Starmer might be the GOAT is whether he beats Attlee's 1945 seat gain of +239 (from the previous election).
Labour on 442 seats and Starmer's gained 240 seats; I think that's entirely possible.
(Whether or not he is the GOAT, he appears to be the LOAT. Still, a lucky general is a good general.)
Not really sure how much generalling Starmer is having to do. He’s basically up against the Judean People’s Front Crack Suicide Squad.
Whilst sitting there watching your opponents immolate themselves will win you an election, and probably very handsomely. It could mean that the shine comes off relatively more quickly than at other times. In 1935 and 1950 a party that had been seriously damaged in the previous election bounced back hard. 2001 shows that’s not guaranteed but it shouldn’t be ignored as a possibility.
I see myself as slightly left-of-centre on social issues (or perhaps centrist...), and right-of-centre economically.
That should be perfect Conservative-voting territory. Sadly, there is absolutely nothing that could convince me to vote Conservative this year.
Fortunately there are seven candidates standing in my constituency this time; much better than three in 2019 (due to the Lib Dem/Green stitch-up...)
Incidentally, one of our candidates is one of the sixteen "Party of Women" candidates standing at this GE. So that should really be six options...
Presumably all of them are wasted votes though, barring Labour/Lib (whoever is the challenger)?
Because of the redrawing of the boundaries (we are essentially in a new constituency), I have no idea. The economist seems to think it is close between Con and Lab, with Lib Dem a close third.
There seems to be a lot of confusion about when postal votes are first going to reach voters. Some people saying today, others 19th June.
Our LA has said the 19th June
The problem is Professor Philip Cowley, who is usually very reliable on these subjects, seems to think it's today. But a lot of amateur experts on the VoteUK forum have said he's wrong, and that it's the same in all areas, whereas he thinks it varies according to council.
If Labour want to be let off the hook for the UKs involvement in the GFC then they need to acknowledge Covid and Ukraine, no?
The way I look at it, Labour faced 9/11 and the GFC, the Tories faced Covid and Ukraine, plus Brexit which was entirely self-inflicted. Shit happens.
You think 9/11 or the GFC compares to Covid? Most of the employees of this Country were at home for months and months getting 80% pay, paid for by the Government. It was by far the biggest event any Government has had to deal with since WW2. The fact that the tories will be handing over an economy with 4.4% unemployment and 2% inflation just 3 years after Covid is something that they should get credit for, which of course they wont.
This is slightly disingenuous. You know, or should do, that there are serious problems in the pipeline which is one reason Sunak went now. The figures in the autumn won’t look so good and there are massive structural problems in the UK economy.
Ref. Ukraine, had we plural (= Joe Biden with a little help from his allies) not so disastrously and precipitously withdrawn from Afghanistan there’s a strong chance Putin would have thought longer and harder about invading Ukraine.
Biden told the world that we weren’t going to police it. It greenlit Putin. Not quite as big a foreign policy blunder as the invasion of Iraq, but not too far behind.
Disagree. Growth was better than expected, inflation ticking down, interest rates expected to come down, and now good employment stats. That is why Rishi thought he would go to the country now.
Not that most people care because they view the Cons as tired and the country in need of change. Doesn't change the sound-ish economic basis upon which Rishi went called the election when he did.
"Sound-ish economic" basis? The public finances are screwed for the next 4 years and to balance them requires a return to growth rates not seen for 2 decades, and/or swinging new public spending cuts and/or a sharp and sustained future rise in taxation. It's the worse economic legacy facing any incoming government since 1945.
That's the big picture, compared to which your points of short term detail hardly matter. But they're misleading too. Inflation is not "ticking down". The CPI will jump sharply in August when the July rate is published because the June 23 energy prices in the base for comparison will be replaced by much lower July 23 energy prices. When CPI goes back to around 3% I don't see interest rates coming down any time soon either. Even a small fall would still leave people currently renewing fixed rate mortgage deals facing very big increases compared to their old rates. But anyway the spectre of Sunak following a playbook reminiscent of Truss's unfunded tax cuts would spook the markets if they thought there was the remotest chance of him winning. As for employment stats, have you noticed how much economic inactivity has jumped?
Sunak went early when 20% behind in the polls because he knew the economic news was not getting better and going now he could fight and election promising illusory tax cuts rather than being exposed as the Emperor with no clothes when they failed to materialise in an Autumn 2024 pre-election budget.
I agree but it seems labour can do it with no tax rises, no spending cuts, but lots of promises
Anyone else think the Micheal Moseley story doesn't make any sense? As someone who studied medicine why would he not take loads of water with him?
Everyone makes mistakes. He did have one bottle of water with him apparently, and maybe he just expected the walk to be a fairly short one.
(Example: I thought it was okay to take a night bus in Rome a few months ago at 1 in the morning. Turned out to be a very bad decision because I got mugged/robbed and might have been stabbed. Two people followed me off the bus in a quiet area, and had, I think, been waiting for me to get off the whole journey, provided it wasn't in a busy area. You get used to how safe night buses are in the UK with all the cameras on board, but I don't think they have them on Rome buses).
On the subject of people on here having multiple IDs, I assume the mods can see the IP addresses and locations of posters, also their email addresses ofc.
Does using a VPN mask the former? Does that mean a person using two IDs would need to switch between or in and out of VPNs to avoid simple detection?
I'm just curious. Using multiple IDs coterminously should be banned if possible imo - it messes with the ethos of the site.
Yeah. Email is easy, but the IPs would be a bit of hassle - easiest with different physical devices on different networks (e.g. one on VPN) or a VM with the same. You'd have to be fairly committed and disciplined* to do something that would be fairly pointless.
There's also the posting in character that would take a fair bit of discipline. We normally spot our banned posters' new IDs (not only Leon's) fairly quickly.
Overall, why bother?
*which tends to rule out Leon, I think - after a few days he'd not be able to resist telling us how smart he'd been to trick everyone
I offer a sincere apology to @Heathener for saying she was Leon. I did genuinely believe you were but I accept I was wrong. My apologies to you.
Are you hanging up your boots as Leonfinder General?
He doesn't have all these "sock puppets", it's a PB urban myth. One he does have is tridentsubcommander - who once in a blue moon will pop up and post "test".
Most amusing.
For some reason I'd always assumed that was Malmesbury or maybe FrancisUrquhart, seems too subtle to Leon, he'd surely post "LAUNCH!" or "BRACE!"
I'm also of the view that Leon generally only has one ID at a time - there have been brief periods when a couple alternate or are more or less concurrent, I believe, particularly when he's going through a rebirth.
I, on the other hand, have lots
Malmesbury or FU? No, they are serious serious guys. But, yes, spot on viz Leon. Serial monogamist. As for you, ok I'm on the lookout now then. It's my speciality so I'll soon bust you.
But anyway, enough of the fluff, there's an election on and what an election it is shaping up to be. Is SKS, this relatable man from an ordinary background, no public school, no Oxbridge, is this decent, clever, diligent, non-showy son of a toolmaker really about to win the biggest landslide victory in British electoral history? He just might, you know.
There seems to be a lot of confusion about when postal votes are first going to reach voters. Some people saying today, others 19th June.
Our LA has said the 19th June
The problem is Professor Philip Cowley, who is usually very reliable on these subjects, seems to think it's today. But a lot of amateur experts on the VoteUK forum have said he's wrong, and that it's the same in all areas, whereas he thinks it varies according to council.
The last time this was discussed here someone eventually pointed to the detail in the legislation that says they cannot be sent out more than 10 (I think?) working days before polling day.
On the subject of people on here having multiple IDs, I assume the mods can see the IP addresses and locations of posters, also their email addresses ofc.
Does using a VPN mask the former? Does that mean a person using two IDs would need to switch between or in and out of VPNs to avoid simple detection?
I'm just curious. Using multiple IDs coterminously should be banned if possible imo - it messes with the ethos of the site.
What is the ethos of the site?
Good challenge. I'd say it's a site for chatting openly with others about political, betting and other matters. Someone arguing with themselves or creating multiple personae for the purpose of winding others up seems, to me, to be counter to the ethos of the site but that's just my opinion obvs.
Anyone else think the Micheal Moseley story doesn't make any sense? As someone who studied medicine why would he not take loads of water with him?
Why are people so desperate for everything to be some sort of conspiracy or mystery these days? The whole Princess of Wales crap when she was actually just sick with cancer for example.
Michael Mosley most likely took a wrong turn, thought he could get to where he needed to be best by continuing rather than turning back, misjudged the distance and suffered more than imagined. It’s happened to many people through history.
What do you want the story to be? He had a secret assignation with a lover? He was hiding from Russian agents trying to kill him to make Britain less healthy? He was so unhappy with pretending to be happy he thought he would kill himself by heat exhaustion?
I see myself as slightly left-of-centre on social issues (or perhaps centrist...), and right-of-centre economically.
That should be perfect Conservative-voting territory. Sadly, there is absolutely nothing that could convince me to vote Conservative this year.
Fortunately there are seven candidates standing in my constituency this time; much better than three in 2019 (due to the Lib Dem/Green stitch-up...)
Incidentally, one of our candidates is one of the sixteen "Party of Women" candidates standing at this GE. So that should really be six options...
Presumably all of them are wasted votes though, barring Labour/Lib (whoever is the challenger)?
Because of the redrawing of the boundaries (we are essentially in a new constituency), I have no idea. The economist seems to think it is close between Con and Lab, with Lib Dem a close third.
On the subject of people on here having multiple IDs, I assume the mods can see the IP addresses and locations of posters, also their email addresses ofc.
Does using a VPN mask the former? Does that mean a person using two IDs would need to switch between or in and out of VPNs to avoid simple detection?
I'm just curious. Using multiple IDs coterminously should be banned if possible imo - it messes with the ethos of the site.
Anyone else think the Micheal Moseley story doesn't make any sense? As someone who studied medicine why would he not take loads of water with him?
That's a bit like saying "As someone who studied law, why would he break the law?". Sometimes people don't use common sense or just make mistakes. There's no evidence of a conspiracy here and the desire of people to find one EVERYWHERE makes me despair.
On the subject of people on here having multiple IDs, I assume the mods can see the IP addresses and locations of posters, also their email addresses ofc.
Does using a VPN mask the former? Does that mean a person using two IDs would need to switch between or in and out of VPNs to avoid simple detection?
I'm just curious. Using multiple IDs coterminously should be banned if possible imo - it messes with the ethos of the site.
What is the ethos of the site?
Good challenge. I'd say it's a site for chatting openly with others about political, betting and other matters. Someone arguing with themselves or creating multiple personae for the purpose of winding others up seems, to me, to be counter to the ethos of the site but that's just my opinion obvs.
Agreed although I don’t really have a problem if the multiple personalities add something in terms of different views which my challenge a discussion where the poster might be known for their position but want to introduce a devil’s advocate argument without the baggage of who they are and what they usually post.
But if people want to wast their time with different personalities for shits and giggles then I suppose it’s also their choice and we can ignore or react.
I offer a sincere apology to @Heathener for saying she was Leon. I did genuinely believe you were but I accept I was wrong. My apologies to you.
Are you hanging up your boots as Leonfinder General?
He doesn't have all these "sock puppets", it's a PB urban myth. One he does have is tridentsubcommander - who once in a blue moon will pop up and post "test".
Most amusing.
For some reason I'd always assumed that was Malmesbury or maybe FrancisUrquhart, seems too subtle to Leon, he'd surely post "LAUNCH!" or "BRACE!"
I'm also of the view that Leon generally only has one ID at a time - there have been brief periods when a couple alternate or are more or less concurrent, I believe, particularly when he's going through a rebirth.
I, on the other hand, have lots
Malmesbury or FU? No, they are serious serious guys. But, yes, spot on viz Leon. Serial monogamist. As for you, ok I'm on the lookout now then. It's my speciality so I'll soon bust you.
But anyway, enough of the fluff, there's an election on and what an election it is shaping up to be. Is SKS, this relatable man from an ordinary background, no public school, no Oxbridge, is this decent, clever, diligent, non-showy son of a toolmaker really about to win the biggest landslide victory in British electoral history? He just might, you know.
Didn’t Starmer do a post-grad at Oxford?
Yep, he will be yet another Oxford PM. Labour are just as bad as the Tories with their Oxford obsession.
Blair, Wilson and Atlee all Oxford. Brown wasn't but then he doesn't really count as he didn't win.
There seems to be a lot of confusion about when postal votes are first going to reach voters. Some people saying today, others 19th June.
Our LA has said the 19th June
The problem is Professor Philip Cowley, who is usually very reliable on these subjects, seems to think it's today. But a lot of amateur experts on the VoteUK forum have said he's wrong, and that it's the same in all areas, whereas he thinks it varies according to council.
Mr. Gaussian, Third Rome is only believed by those who prefer propaganda to history.
Ms (Mr? Apologies, I forget) Kirk, that book sounds intriguing, thanks for mentioning it. I do feel very sorry for Heraclius. Manages to win a war from a terrible position, recovers all lost territory, then six minutes later Islam's born and an army of Arabs annihilates the Persians then takes most of the Eastern Roman Empire.
I could not recommend Howard-Johnston's 2021 book more highly for those who love ancient history, the corralling of multiple incredibly obscure sources and decent writing. It is Oxford classical scholarship at its magnificent best. Yes, this long war is totally forgotten as the rules of the game were to be changed for ever, and by about 700/800 the demarcations were closer to how they are now than they were to 600 (perhaps I am being polemical here!)
Port of Baltimore is open again, according to the BBC.
Fast work. Only 11 weeks. Still think that Buttigieg for Biden would have been a very good swop at the top of the ticket.
There have been some great videos done on the work; it was indeed quick. Although it should be noted that it was open for smaller (lower draught) ships after a couple of weeks.
Now they've got to rebuild the bridge. There is loads of misinformation online about this, including claims it will take ten to twenty years to rebuild (coz Biden, obvs...). In reality, it is planned to be opened in 2028. Four years isn't bad, especially if they cannot use the approach viaducts.
I offer a sincere apology to @Heathener for saying she was Leon. I did genuinely believe you were but I accept I was wrong. My apologies to you.
Are you hanging up your boots as Leonfinder General?
He doesn't have all these "sock puppets", it's a PB urban myth. One he does have is tridentsubcommander - who once in a blue moon will pop up and post "test".
Most amusing.
For some reason I'd always assumed that was Malmesbury or maybe FrancisUrquhart, seems too subtle to Leon, he'd surely post "LAUNCH!" or "BRACE!"
I'm also of the view that Leon generally only has one ID at a time - there have been brief periods when a couple alternate or are more or less concurrent, I believe, particularly when he's going through a rebirth.
I, on the other hand, have lots
Malmesbury or FU? No, they are serious serious guys. But, yes, spot on viz Leon. Serial monogamist. As for you, ok I'm on the lookout now then. It's my speciality so I'll soon bust you.
But anyway, enough of the fluff, there's an election on and what an election it is shaping up to be. Is SKS, this relatable man from an ordinary background, no public school, no Oxbridge, is this decent, clever, diligent, non-showy son of a toolmaker really about to win the biggest landslide victory in British electoral history? He just might, you know.
In the three months to April, there were 9.43m people who were economically inactive in Britain, meaning they are neither in a job nor looking for one.
These included a record number of people out of work due to long-term sickness, which rose 55,000 to 2.83m.
It means the worklessness crisis has reached a scale that threatens to undermine the economy’s growth potential, according to Tony Wilson, director of the Institute for Employment Studies.
Anyone else think the Micheal Moseley story doesn't make any sense? As someone who studied medicine why would he not take loads of water with him?
Knowledge ≠ common sense
67 year old bloke in 40c heat starts to stagger about a bit. Wanders off in the wrong direction then sits down and dies.
My wife and I went from Adelaide to Alice Springs on the Ghan and of course we were in an air conditioned compartment throughout, but alighting off the train in Alice Springs it was in excess of 40c and the heat just took your breath away and walking to the air conditioned station was an effort
It is a disabling heat and very sad Dr Mosley was overcome by it, but I can understand it though the coroner's report will be interesting
There seems to be a lot of confusion about when postal votes are first going to reach voters. Some people saying today, others 19th June.
Our LA has said the 19th June
The problem is Professor Philip Cowley, who is usually very reliable on these subjects, seems to think it's today. But a lot of amateur experts on the VoteUK forum have said he's wrong, and that it's the same in all areas, whereas he thinks it varies according to council.
Anyone else think the Micheal Moseley story doesn't make any sense? As someone who studied medicine why would he not take loads of water with him?
Knowledge ≠ common sense
67 year old bloke in 40c heat starts to stagger about a bit. Wanders off in the wrong direction then sits down and dies.
That part of the cost is completely exposed to the sun as well - no shade. The temperature you actually experience out in the blazing sun is closer to 50℃. Death is inevitable if you stay out in that for long enough.
There’s no mystery here: he overheated, got dizzy, sat down & passed out; the sun did the rest. Nature can be a harsh mistress.
In the three months to April, there were 9.43m people who were economically inactive in Britain, meaning they are neither in a job nor looking for one.
These included a record number of people out of work due to long-term sickness, which rose 55,000 to 2.83m.
It means the worklessness crisis has reached a scale that threatens to undermine the economy’s growth potential, according to Tony Wilson, director of the Institute for Employment Studies.
If you could evade CGT by selling to tenants, surely the estate agents and lawyers will quickly introduce a scheme where you rent for a few months before purchase?
On London properties CGT bills of £100k+ won't be that uncommon, so you could even let it out for six months for free and be a winner.
Yep, there’s so many loopholes in that announcement, that were immediately obvious.
It does appear that CCHQ were completely blindsided by the election announcement, as they had nothing ready to go. One of the key advantages of incumbency, that you know the timeline, totally lost. The other parties would all have been ready to go for a May election.
Even if there weren't more hole than a sieve, nobody likes landlords. If you manifesto is all magic money tree tax cutting, you don't promise tax cuts to the unpopular, while no tax cut to IHT which is likely to be popular.
On the subject of people on here having multiple IDs, I assume the mods can see the IP addresses and locations of posters, also their email addresses ofc.
Does using a VPN mask the former? Does that mean a person using two IDs would need to switch between or in and out of VPNs to avoid simple detection?
I'm just curious. Using multiple IDs coterminously should be banned if possible imo - it messes with the ethos of the site.
Yeah. Email is easy, but the IPs would be a bit of hassle - easiest with different physical devices on different networks (e.g. one on VPN) or a VM with the same. You'd have to be fairly committed and disciplined* to do something that would be fairly pointless.
There's also the posting in character that would take a fair bit of discipline. We normally spot our banned posters' new IDs (not only Leon's) fairly quickly.
Overall, why bother?
*which tends to rule out Leon, I think - after a few days he'd not be able to resist telling us how smart he'd been to trick everyone
What with dynamic allocation of isps, and everyone being on someone else's WiFi half the time, I think id by isp is ancient history. I am always on a VPN these days because Google puts one in my phone so I probably look like I am trying to hide something when I am not.
In the three months to April, there were 9.43m people who were economically inactive in Britain, meaning they are neither in a job nor looking for one.
These included a record number of people out of work due to long-term sickness, which rose 55,000 to 2.83m.
It means the worklessness crisis has reached a scale that threatens to undermine the economy’s growth potential, according to Tony Wilson, director of the Institute for Employment Studies.
I offer a sincere apology to @Heathener for saying she was Leon. I did genuinely believe you were but I accept I was wrong. My apologies to you.
Are you hanging up your boots as Leonfinder General?
He doesn't have all these "sock puppets", it's a PB urban myth. One he does have is tridentsubcommander - who once in a blue moon will pop up and post "test".
Most amusing.
For some reason I'd always assumed that was Malmesbury or maybe FrancisUrquhart, seems too subtle to Leon, he'd surely post "LAUNCH!" or "BRACE!"
I'm also of the view that Leon generally only has one ID at a time - there have been brief periods when a couple alternate or are more or less concurrent, I believe, particularly when he's going through a rebirth.
I, on the other hand, have lots
Malmesbury or FU? No, they are serious serious guys. But, yes, spot on viz Leon. Serial monogamist. As for you, ok I'm on the lookout now then. It's my speciality so I'll soon bust you.
But anyway, enough of the fluff, there's an election on and what an election it is shaping up to be. Is SKS, this relatable man from an ordinary background, no public school, no Oxbridge, is this decent, clever, diligent, non-showy son of a toolmaker really about to win the biggest landslide victory in British electoral history? He just might, you know.
Didn’t Starmer do a post-grad at Oxford?
Yes Teddy Hall.
Doing so well as to get a 1st class undergraduate degree at a redbrick university (in the days when very few got a 1st class honours) and on the strength of that being accepted to do a post grad at Oxford smacks of merit and achievement not privilege
In the three months to April, there were 9.43m people who were economically inactive in Britain, meaning they are neither in a job nor looking for one.
These included a record number of people out of work due to long-term sickness, which rose 55,000 to 2.83m.
It means the worklessness crisis has reached a scale that threatens to undermine the economy’s growth potential, according to Tony Wilson, director of the Institute for Employment Studies.
National service for the 50-65 early retired.....its only a weekend after all.....
Complete early retirement is terrible for the individual and the country. I have long thought the government needs to nudge towards having people gradually moving towards retirement where possible, 5 days a week to 4 days to 3 days, rather than Bob packing in on a Friday and never working again for 30+ years. It is better for the individual and also better for the country as organisations don't lose that knowledge and experience overnight.
I see myself as slightly left-of-centre on social issues (or perhaps centrist...), and right-of-centre economically.
That should be perfect Conservative-voting territory. Sadly, there is absolutely nothing that could convince me to vote Conservative this year.
Fortunately there are seven candidates standing in my constituency this time; much better than three in 2019 (due to the Lib Dem/Green stitch-up...)
Incidentally, one of our candidates is one of the sixteen "Party of Women" candidates standing at this GE. So that should really be six options...
Presumably all of them are wasted votes though, barring Labour/Lib (whoever is the challenger)?
Because of the redrawing of the boundaries (we are essentially in a new constituency), I have no idea. The economist seems to think it is close between Con and Lab, with Lib Dem a close third.
Bonkersly the EC ordered seats list only numbers down to 548 instead of 650-the NI seats. This is because they give the same number to equally placed seats, but don't allow for the duplication. This is confusing. Having said that, the list is very useful.
I see "Tory Culture wars" are in the news (JK Rowling & Joanna Cherry Tory - huge if true - ed.)
A handy translation guide:
Culture War = I don't care Moral panic = Calm down dear Toxic debate = Silly women getting rape threats All sides = I'm scared of trans activists Take the heat out = Calm down dear Live and let live = Roll over to gender borg demands Exhausting = I don't care
I offer a sincere apology to @Heathener for saying she was Leon. I did genuinely believe you were but I accept I was wrong. My apologies to you.
Are you hanging up your boots as Leonfinder General?
He doesn't have all these "sock puppets", it's a PB urban myth. One he does have is tridentsubcommander - who once in a blue moon will pop up and post "test".
Most amusing.
For some reason I'd always assumed that was Malmesbury or maybe FrancisUrquhart, seems too subtle to Leon, he'd surely post "LAUNCH!" or "BRACE!"
I'm also of the view that Leon generally only has one ID at a time - there have been brief periods when a couple alternate or are more or less concurrent, I believe, particularly when he's going through a rebirth.
I, on the other hand, have lots
Malmesbury or FU? No, they are serious serious guys. But, yes, spot on viz Leon. Serial monogamist. As for you, ok I'm on the lookout now then. It's my speciality so I'll soon bust you.
But anyway, enough of the fluff, there's an election on and what an election it is shaping up to be. Is SKS, this relatable man from an ordinary background, no public school, no Oxbridge, is this decent, clever, diligent, non-showy son of a toolmaker really about to win the biggest landslide victory in British electoral history? He just might, you know.
Didn’t Starmer do a post-grad at Oxford?
True. But there's none of that 'born to rule' nonsense - Elite School to Oxbridge to Politics.
Anyone else think the Micheal Moseley story doesn't make any sense? As someone who studied medicine why would he not take loads of water with him?
Knowledge ≠ common sense
67 year old bloke in 40c heat starts to stagger about a bit. Wanders off in the wrong direction then sits down and dies.
My wife and I went from Adelaide to Alice Springs on the Ghan and of course we were in an air conditioned compartment throughout, but alighting off the train in Alice Springs it was in excess of 40c and the heat just took your breath away and walking to the air conditioned station was an effort
It is a disabling heat and very sad Dr Mosley was overcome by it, but I can understand it though the coroner's report will be interesting
Like a lot of people probably, I can remember 19th July 2022 when it almost hit 40 degrees here. It was exhausting just to walk around for a few minutes in that heat.
Incidentally, whilst on the topic of bridges: the Russians have started using the Kerch rail bridge for heavy freight traffic once more. But there is not believed to have been much work done to it. Perhaps this is because they do not have enough ferries left?
I offer a sincere apology to @Heathener for saying she was Leon. I did genuinely believe you were but I accept I was wrong. My apologies to you.
Are you hanging up your boots as Leonfinder General?
He doesn't have all these "sock puppets", it's a PB urban myth. One he does have is tridentsubcommander - who once in a blue moon will pop up and post "test".
Most amusing.
For some reason I'd always assumed that was Malmesbury or maybe FrancisUrquhart, seems too subtle to Leon, he'd surely post "LAUNCH!" or "BRACE!"
I'm also of the view that Leon generally only has one ID at a time - there have been brief periods when a couple alternate or are more or less concurrent, I believe, particularly when he's going through a rebirth.
I, on the other hand, have lots
Malmesbury or FU? No, they are serious serious guys. But, yes, spot on viz Leon. Serial monogamist. As for you, ok I'm on the lookout now then. It's my speciality so I'll soon bust you.
But anyway, enough of the fluff, there's an election on and what an election it is shaping up to be. Is SKS, this relatable man from an ordinary background, no public school, no Oxbridge, is this decent, clever, diligent, non-showy son of a toolmaker really about to win the biggest landslide victory in British electoral history? He just might, you know.
Didn’t Starmer do a post-grad at Oxford?
Yes Teddy Hall.
Who is/was Teddy Hall? Does he have a brother called Kelvin or Albert?
Anyone else think the Micheal Moseley story doesn't make any sense? As someone who studied medicine why would he not take loads of water with him?
Knowledge ≠ common sense
67 year old bloke in 40c heat starts to stagger about a bit. Wanders off in the wrong direction then sits down and dies.
That part of the cost is completely exposed to the sun as well - no shade. The temperature you actually experience out in the blazing sun is closer to 50℃. Death is inevitable if you stay out in that for long enough.
There’s no mystery here: he overheated, got dizzy, sat down & passed out; the sun did the rest. Nature can be a harsh mistress.
The issue is heat stroke, not dehydration. Water would only have made a difference if he tipped a lot of it over his head.
In the three months to April, there were 9.43m people who were economically inactive in Britain, meaning they are neither in a job nor looking for one.
These included a record number of people out of work due to long-term sickness, which rose 55,000 to 2.83m.
It means the worklessness crisis has reached a scale that threatens to undermine the economy’s growth potential, according to Tony Wilson, director of the Institute for Employment Studies.
I see myself as slightly left-of-centre on social issues (or perhaps centrist...), and right-of-centre economically.
That should be perfect Conservative-voting territory. Sadly, there is absolutely nothing that could convince me to vote Conservative this year.
Fortunately there are seven candidates standing in my constituency this time; much better than three in 2019 (due to the Lib Dem/Green stitch-up...)
Incidentally, one of our candidates is one of the sixteen "Party of Women" candidates standing at this GE. So that should really be six options...
Presumably all of them are wasted votes though, barring Labour/Lib (whoever is the challenger)?
Because of the redrawing of the boundaries (we are essentially in a new constituency), I have no idea. The economist seems to think it is close between Con and Lab, with Lib Dem a close third.
Bonkersly the EC ordered seats list only numbers down to 548 instead of 650-the NI seats. This is because they give the same number to equally placed seats, but don't allow for the duplication. This is confusing. Having said that, the list is very useful.
Eek, that discredits everything else on that site as far as I'm concerned.
Because she is not standing for election so we have no need to know anything about her? I truly hate the tendency to have partners of politicians somehow involved.
Did you read it? That’s the whole point of the article: explaining her reasoning for not being involved.
Paywalled, so no, and also no interest in her at all. If that's why then good on her.
I offer a sincere apology to @Heathener for saying she was Leon. I did genuinely believe you were but I accept I was wrong. My apologies to you.
Are you hanging up your boots as Leonfinder General?
He doesn't have all these "sock puppets", it's a PB urban myth. One he does have is tridentsubcommander - who once in a blue moon will pop up and post "test".
Most amusing.
For some reason I'd always assumed that was Malmesbury or maybe FrancisUrquhart, seems too subtle to Leon, he'd surely post "LAUNCH!" or "BRACE!"
I'm also of the view that Leon generally only has one ID at a time - there have been brief periods when a couple alternate or are more or less concurrent, I believe, particularly when he's going through a rebirth.
Anyone else think the Micheal Moseley story doesn't make any sense? As someone who studied medicine why would he not take loads of water with him?
Knowledge ≠ common sense
67 year old bloke in 40c heat starts to stagger about a bit. Wanders off in the wrong direction then sits down and dies.
That part of the cost is completely exposed to the sun as well - no shade. The temperature you actually experience out in the blazing sun is closer to 50℃. Death is inevitable if you stay out in that for long enough.
There’s no mystery here: he overheated, got dizzy, sat down & passed out; the sun did the rest. Nature can be a harsh mistress.
The issue is heat stroke, not dehydration. Water would only have made a difference if he tipped a lot of it over his head.
He was only 50 metres from the sea according to this.
Read that rishi is going full truss in the cons manifesto and promising hige tax cuts !!
surely he should have learned after what happened last time ??
The Tories are literally copying the Corbyn campaign of 2019, keep throwing a random policy a day, many of which are bonkers, and to hell with if they are actually practical or affordable.
I have a vision of an Olly out of The Thick of It, policy Olly, we need a policy for the Telegraph tomorrow, come on, hurry up, what have you got....wooden toys.
Comments
It’s not asking for much.
I’m a bit suspicious about Tweedledee’s sudden appearance tbh.
Is this another metamorphosis?
My main criticism of Cameron/Osborne would be that whilst they were not overly ideological in the policies they chose, they became overly wedded with the policies they initially adopted and didn't adapt to the changing landscape.
Most research grant applications propose research that is already well underway, to minimise the chances of getting embarrasingly poor results.
Ms (Mr? Apologies, I forget) Kirk, that book sounds intriguing, thanks for mentioning it. I do feel very sorry for Heraclius. Manages to win a war from a terrible position, recovers all lost territory, then six minutes later Islam's born and an army of Arabs annihilates the Persians then takes most of the Eastern Roman Empire.
That should be perfect Conservative-voting territory. Sadly, there is absolutely nothing that could convince me to vote Conservative this year.
Fortunately there are seven candidates standing in my constituency this time; much better than three in 2019 (due to the Lib Dem/Green stitch-up...)
Incidentally, one of our candidates is one of the sixteen "Party of Women" candidates standing at this GE. So that should really be six options...
Redfield & Wilton. Tories on 19%, down 4, Labour lead is up by 4.
JL Partners. Tories on 24%, down 2, Labour lead is up by 2.
Deltapoll. Tories on 21%, down 2, Labour lead is up by 3.
Obviously, in the privacy of the polling booth, strange things sometimes happen. The pencil hovers, the voter is wracked by uncertainty and doubt.
I'm still uncertain about the outcome, but the uncertainty is symmetrical. There could be late moves further against the Tories, or reluctant Tories might return to the fold. An ELE is definitely possible if Sunak's campaign continues to be poor.
Maybe that’s a difficult concept for the Party workers on here to understand but a great many of us in this country, especially nowadays, don’t have a Party allegiance.
I’d forgotten he promised the Ref on leaving the EU but like Cameron himself, at the time I didn’t think the country would vote to do so. The rest of that and what happened with the campaigns is one for history now: a bit tedious on here.
I will admit though that I didn’t make my voting decision in 2015 until I was literally walking to the polling station. It was that difficult to decide.
Anyhoooo … this is boring. And one or two are needlessly grumpy this morning. So I’ll head out and do my bits n’ bobs.
x
Labour on 442 seats and Starmer's gained 240 seats; I think that's entirely possible.
(Whether or not he is the GOAT, he appears to be the LOAT. Still, a lucky general is a good general.)
Labour Party: 9% (-1)
Lib Dems: 3% (-2)
Reform UK: 4% (=)
SNP: 2% (-1)
Plaid Cymru: 1% (=)
Green Party: 2% (=)
None of them: 9% (+1)
Don’t know: 25% (-7)
The problem for the Tories is the question "Regardless of who you support, who do you think is running the worst general election campaign so far?"
They are due today or tomorrow anyway
But anyway, enough of the fluff, there's an election on and what an election it is shaping up to be. Is SKS, this relatable man from an ordinary background, no public school, no Oxbridge, is this decent, clever, diligent, non-showy son of a toolmaker really about to win the biggest landslide victory in British electoral history? He just might, you know.
Does using a VPN mask the former? Does that mean a person using two IDs would need to switch between or in and out of VPNs to avoid simple detection?
I'm just curious. Using multiple IDs coterminously should be banned if possible imo - it messes with the ethos of the site.
Oh, shit, where's the delete button...?
Whilst sitting there watching your opponents immolate themselves will win you an election, and probably very handsomely. It could mean that the shine comes off relatively more quickly than at other times. In 1935 and 1950 a party that had been seriously damaged in the previous election bounced back hard. 2001 shows that’s not guaranteed but it shouldn’t be ignored as a possibility.
https://news.sky.com/story/gary-glitter-disgraced-pop-star-ordered-to-pay-half-a-million-pounds-to-woman-he-abused-13151057
Like you, there is nothing in the world that could convince me to vote Conservative this year, even though I'm pretty certain Labour will hit me with more taxes, we might at least get a competent government out of it. The Conservatives are no longer the party of business, nor are they the party of homeowners, nor are they the party of staying out of other people's business.
But the thing that has infuriated me most about the campaign so far is that neither the Tories nor Labour are talking anything sensible on immigration. I'm a metropolitan Londoner and I believe that a reasonable amount of immigration is good for the country, from both an economic and societal perspective. Unfortunately what we have is an unreasonable amount of immigration, that's unsustainable given the levels of infrastructure development in the country and also leaves me deeply worried about integration - concerns that have risen drastically since the rise of antisemitism since last year.
I wouldn't vote for the odious, dog whistling racists in Reform ('doesn't understand our culture', 'London taken over by Islamists' etc) but I think a serious conversation about immigration needs to be had, before our society's infrastructure and cultural cohesion begins to break down. So where do I go? Who do I vote for? I want to vote for a party that has answers on immigration, without hating immigrants.
It's genuinely infuriating, because it *is* a problem to which none of the main parties has an answer, and the only people willing to discuss it are dog-whistling racists. I'd like to see it tackled before it drives even more people into the arms of the far right.
That's the big picture, compared to which your points of short term detail hardly matter. But they're misleading too. Inflation is not "ticking down". The CPI will jump sharply in August when the July rate is published because the June 23 energy prices in the base for comparison will be replaced by much lower July 23 energy prices. When CPI goes back to around 3% I don't see interest rates coming down any time soon either. Even a small fall would still leave people currently renewing fixed rate mortgage deals facing very big increases compared to their old rates. But anyway the spectre of Sunak following a playbook reminiscent of Truss's unfunded tax cuts would spook the markets if they thought there was the remotest chance of him winning. As for employment stats, have you noticed how much economic inactivity has jumped?
Sunak went early when 20% behind in the polls because he knew the economic news was not getting better and going now he could fight an election promising illusory tax cuts rather than being exposed as the Emperor with no clothes when they failed to materialise in an Autumn 2024 pre-election budget.
C 468, L 33, LD 6, Ref 1 (remarkably), G 2, SNP 14, PC 1... Others 107(?)
As someone who studied medicine why would he not take loads of water with him?
https://www.economist.com/interactive/uk-general-election/forecast
I somehow doubt that; I think it'll be much closer. I'm currently inclined to vote Lib Dem.
https://x.com/philipjcowley/status/1800442913882857812
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said 65pc of older Britons now pay tax on their income, up from just 48pc since 2010.
...
Meanwhile, the share of working-age people paying income tax stands at 63pc amid a jump in long-term sickness since Covid that has left 800,000 more people out of work.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/11/higher-share-of-pensioners-pay-income-tax-than-workers/
(Example: I thought it was okay to take a night bus in Rome a few months ago at 1 in the morning. Turned out to be a very bad decision because I got mugged/robbed and might have been stabbed. Two people followed me off the bus in a quiet area, and had, I think, been waiting for me to get off the whole journey, provided it wasn't in a busy area. You get used to how safe night buses are in the UK with all the cameras on board, but I don't think they have them on Rome buses).
There's also the posting in character that would take a fair bit of discipline. We normally spot our banned posters' new IDs (not only Leon's) fairly quickly.
Overall, why bother?
*which tends to rule out Leon, I think - after a few days he'd not be able to resist telling us how smart he'd been to trick everyone
Michael Mosley most likely took a wrong turn, thought he could get to where he needed to be best by continuing rather than turning back, misjudged the distance and suffered more than imagined. It’s happened to many people through history.
What do you want the story to be? He had a secret assignation with a lover? He was hiding from Russian agents trying to kill him to make Britain less healthy? He was so unhappy with pretending to be happy he thought he would kill himself by heat exhaustion?
Maybe he just made a bad mistake.
https://x.com/pickardje/status/1800464741732847673?s=46
https://tactical.vote/all/
Or this:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html
It is not just Sunak but all those round him who are utterly clueless
Never mind, in just over three weeks they will be history (and not the one they hoped for)
But if people want to wast their time with different personalities for shits and giggles then I suppose it’s also their choice and we can ignore or react.
Blair, Wilson and Atlee all Oxford. Brown wasn't but then he doesn't really count as he didn't win.
Deadline to register to vote (by midnight) 18-June Tuesday
Deadline for new postal vote applicants or amending existing absent voting arrangements 19-June Wednesday
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/timetable-for-the-2024-general-election/
Now they've got to rebuild the bridge. There is loads of misinformation online about this, including claims it will take ten to twenty years to rebuild (coz Biden, obvs...). In reality, it is planned to be opened in 2028. Four years isn't bad, especially if they cannot use the approach viaducts.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/inside-gary-glitters-staggering-net-32452412
In the three months to April, there were 9.43m people who were economically inactive in Britain, meaning they are neither in a job nor looking for one.
These included a record number of people out of work due to long-term sickness, which rose 55,000 to 2.83m.
It means the worklessness crisis has reached a scale that threatens to undermine the economy’s growth potential, according to Tony Wilson, director of the Institute for Employment Studies.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/11/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-employment-wage-interest-rates/#1718088106516
https://vote-2012.proboards.com/post/1501695/thread
All it needs is a "can't win here" arrow, or a picture of two horses racing.
It is a disabling heat and very sad Dr Mosley was overcome by it, but I can understand it though the coroner's report will be interesting
Not sure why they'd rush to get ballots printed and posted over the weekend when they'd have to send out a second batch on the 19th anyway.
There’s no mystery here: he overheated, got dizzy, sat down & passed out; the sun did the rest. Nature can be a harsh mistress.
Not surprised it’s cratered he isn’t exactly giving the last remaining Tory voters much reason to bother.
WHAT'S CHANGED SINCE 2010?
- BOAT CROSSINGS DOWN BY 36%
- SPENDING ON OUR ARMED FORCES UP TO 2.5% OF GDP
https://x.com/RishiSunak/status/1800435232648446322
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2881jmwjlmo
https://x.com/RestIsPolitics/status/1800455332352630986?s=19
A twelve point hit (bad enough) but not negative territory quite!
A handy translation guide:
Culture War = I don't care
Moral panic = Calm down dear
Toxic debate = Silly women getting rape threats
All sides = I'm scared of trans activists
Take the heat out = Calm down dear
Live and let live = Roll over to gender borg demands
Exhausting = I don't care
https://x.com/Jebadoo2/status/1800437709523021891
There were no boat crossings until fairly recently
2.5% spending on Armed Forces is by 2030
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jul/18/uk-weather-heatwave-boris-johnson-checked-out-airport-runways-closed
"Labour have absolutely no policies - and we've costed all 27 of them."
https://order-order.com/2024/06/11/telegraph-starmers-wife-being-kept-off-campaign-trail/
If it has an "October surprise", not sure it will make any difference.
LAB: 35% (+8)
SNP: 34% (-3)
CON: 14% (-4)
LDM: 8% (=)
RFM: 5% (New)
GRN: 4% (=)
Via @OpiniumResearch, 5-10 Jun.
Changes w/ 5-14 Sep 2023 (!).
Suspect that’s bad news for remaining Tories.
https://news.sky.com/story/dr-michael-mosley-after-a-painstaking-four-day-search-tv-doctors-body-was-found-just-metres-from-safety-at-beach-resort-13150338
surely he should have learned after what happened last time ??
I have a vision of an Olly out of The Thick of It, policy Olly, we need a policy for the Telegraph tomorrow, come on, hurry up, what have you got....wooden toys.