The East Midlands Flipchart? – politicalbetting.com
The East Midlands Flipchart? – politicalbetting.com
Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire are in part a section of the Red Wall. At present we have 22 MPs, 5 in Nottingham and Derby, and the other 17 in County seats.
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Confirmation from last thread of methodology change from MiC
Savanta are also moving across to prompting the actual ballots now SOPNs are out
Overall impression is it was longer than it needed to be, a lot of really vague stuff but some detail sprinkled through. Too much about creating new bodies and roles and light on funding, but that's not unusual. Political reform stuff clearer as you'd expect from LDs, and the housing part was frustratingly vague - it was not openly NIMBY at least, but its ambitions were pointless without being explicit about how to achieve the targets.
All in all it had sufficient detail to be made use of, but was rather forgettable.
I used to live in Rushcliffe and it is full of yummy mummies and daddies with kids - It will go Labour I think as Ken Clarke had a big personal vote and that takes two elections to totally unwind , also the tories have lost young well to do families in their quest to keep pensioners on board. If Reform take off further they could take Mansfield.
PS I now live in the Castle Ward of the City which is now under Nottingham East (despite being if anything west ). I will be voting Reform especially as the Tory candidate picture has him wearing a hoodie and looking about 20 (show some respect to the electorate young man!)
https://www.thebrexitparty.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Contract-With-The-People.pdf
Can you believe this, Friend?
I'm actually about to speak to a probation officer after my RIGGED CONVICTION!
My only crime? Putting the AMERICAN PEOPLE, ahead of the COMMUNISTS, MARXISTS, AND FASCISTS that want to see our country DESTROYED.
https://nitter.poast.org/RonFilipkowski/status/1800171011004080526#m
I hope you will apply the same level of intellectual rigour/disdain/contempt (delete as appropriate) to the Conservative and Labour offerings.
But... they're not, are they?
Given the circumstances, going for a broad but shallow platform is probably sensible as it gives them the best base from which they can pick and choose policies to develop further whenever the opportunity arises.
I'd expect the Greens to produce something similar (though longer and woollier!). Refuk probably should too, though they probably don't have the capacity to do so.
Under the pensions lifetime allowance, pension pots over £1.07m faced an annual tax of £40,000 on average.
The cap was scrapped in April but Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves had vowed to bring it back, saying it could raise £800m a year.
However, her party has now reversed the decision ahead of the release of its manifesto on Thursday, reportedly because the cap would add uncertainty for savers and be complex to reintroduce.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd11n2krmm4o
Do Starmer and Reeves have the courage to do anything ?
Yes labour has a big majority here and in a red tsunami election they should hold on easily but...
Baggy Shanker is not popular, certainly not as popular as Beckett was. He's a known quantity locally as he's the leader of the local council but has been involved at all stages in the mess of the Sinfin incinerator. This has led to calls for a VoNC (see here https://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/news/derby-news/opposition-calls-emergency-meeting-over-9326915 )
Reform do hold a number of the councillors in some of the wards of the seat. and have been canvassing actively
I live in a ward which has only returned Labour councillors in the last 20 years and Baggy Shanker has canvassed my street twice since the start of the campaign. I think he's worried about keeping RefUK at bay. I've had 4 bits of stuff through the door from labour
and this LibDem style abuse of a bar chart from RefUK.
https://x.com/spudgfsh/status/1799572893828780540
Greens have somtimes been very detailed, including financial tables and everything, and they earned points by hyperlinking their sections last time.
He doesn’t have any friends. Only acolytes.
Any more polls, waiter ? I'm getting hungry again.
Absolutely nothing about others.
Not sure that has anything to do with the kind of Cameron Big Society Conservatism or One Nation Toryism. Just sounds like ‘me, me, me.'
And anyone whose taxes are increased will know that they're having to pay more so that those with million quid pension pots don't have to.
@YouGov
Regardless of who you support, who do you think is running the worst general election campaign so far?
Conservative Party: 45% (+11 from 4 June)
Labour Party: 9% (-1)
Lib Dems: 3% (-2)
Reform UK: 4% (=)
SNP: 2% (-1)
Plaid Cymru: 1% (=)
Green Party: 2% (=)
None of them: 9% (+1)
Don’t know: 25% (-7)
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1800207880601161802
None of the above this time.
I respect the strategy of realise that they have very little agency in this election so might as well try and win the picture editors over.
About .. er .. 48th.
I'll pop back later to pick up any questions.
Sunak should probably pursue it more if he wants to take them on patriotism and the military, as well as turn the tables on Farage after the D-Day criticism, but as a focus on a single candidate, rather than the striking original Reform statement basically justifying him, it hasn't figured much in the news, and perhaps the Tories are unsure about a full-frontal attack on Reform at this stage.
The incumbent government always has a big advantage over the opposition when it comes to manifestos because they have the civil service available to number crunch and work through every policy. The opposition have a handful of spads if they’re lucky.
David Gauke was making this point on a podcast we were recording today (out Wednesday hopefully): no matter how well prepared an opposition is, it will arrive on day 1 at the Treasury and realise which of its policies actually work and which need rethinking.
You could say that’s the blob at work, but it happens. Fair play to Reeves for dropping it now rather than on first contact with government.
The Conservative share rose was 39% in 2010 to 64% last time and Labour require an 18.5% swing to recapture that seat which on current polls they should manage.
The Borough Council went Labour last year - the Conservatives lost 21 of their seats with Labour gaining 15. As far as I can see, Labour won most of the Wards in the constituency last year and did well in the Crich by-election in May.
But if he's running scared now he's going to have problems when the real decisions have to be made and people have to suffer because of them.
Regardless of who you support, who do you think is running the best general election campaign so far?
Conservative Party: 6% (-1 from June)
Labour Party: 24% (-1 from June)
Lib Dems: 7% (+2)
Reform UK: 12% (+5)
SNP: 1% (=)
Plaid Cymru: 0% (=)
Green Party: 3% (+1)
None of them: 26% (-1)
Don’t know: 20% (-5)
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1800207883411345895?t=ZxZlrGIwryTz0Pxf6TCjbA&s=19
@MrHarryCole
NEW: Rishi Sunak: I am not a quinoa salad
I spent 6 months living at pretty much the closest house to the castle on Lenton Road when I was at University.
There’s an argument for reducing the ISA allowance, though not much fiscal payoff because government only benefits many years hence when people cash in their non-ISA gains. Whereas pensions tax changes have a fiscal effect straightaway
> for first time since counting began, FF is now tied with FG =233 seats each with just 44 local council seats still undecided.
> in Euro election count for Dublin constituency, seems that only FF and FG have a realistic chance of winning the seat. HOWEVER, still at least theoretically possible for non-SF left candidate to pick up sufficient transfers to surge ahead in the final count. BUT do NOT hold yer breath!
Any change to salary sacrifice pension contributions will look very bad after this.
Criticising somebody for not being egalitarian enough in a post about how they have chosen to vote is petty in the extreme. She constantly goes on about attracting new people here and instantly jumps on someone with a few posts like that.
NEW: make or break manifesto launch for Sunak tomorrow
Under-fire Tory chief will offer tax cuts for millions and a tough clampdown on soaring immigration in a last ditch effort to breathe life into his bid to remain PM
https://x.com/MrHarryCole/status/1800245556347879503
No man is an island,
Entire of itself.
Each is a piece of the continent,
A part of the main.
Therein lies part, although only part, of the reason for the death of the Conservative Party.
I spent 6 months living at pretty much the closest house to the castle on Lenton Road when I was at University.
I'm genuinely unsure which way Ashfield goes; my ideas have not changed but we'll see.
I had the first Ashfield Independent newspaper yesterday, and it is full of personal-type stuff about Jason Zadrozny ("delivers his promises"), anti-Lee Anderson and "voting Labour will let in Lee". Nothing about "political prosecutions of Jason Zadrozny" this time.
But I'm not a Tory.
And what I've repeatedly said is that the rich and property owners will need to pay more tax together with the poor and oldies receiving less money.
Once you start removing the financial hit from one group it becomes increasingly harder for others to accept it.
We really should be 'all in this together'.
One of the most malign things that the Conservatives did was to exempt oldies from any financial risk.
All paid for by efficiency savings and cutting down on tax avoidance.
Sunak has lost. He has nothing of any interest to say now. The more people see him the less they seem to like him.
EXCEPT that Reform's manifesto does matter because it is not just pitched to voters but to Conservative MPs with a view to coming together and perhaps even merging after the election. We've heard people say after the 7-way debate that Penny Mordaunt seemed stilted, presumably struggling to remember CCHQ's "lines to take", whereas Nigel Farage rattled off conservative principles as if they were second nature: security; tackling crime and so on.
That is the only policy that COULD save a few dozen seats and keep them viable for the long term (although they will lose anyway)
That's excellent environmental management, letting that forest grow free and clear until now.
This feels quite a lot like watching someone interview ChatGPT pretending to be Rishi Sunak.
Throughout the Wilson/Heath/Callaghan years it was solidly Labour with Ted Bishop
Under Thatcher it was Tory with Richard Alexander
In 1997 it was won by the ill starred Fiona Jones, one of Blair's Babes.
In 2001 it was one of the very few seats won back by the Tories with Patrick Mercer becoming MP. He retained the seat in 2005 and 2010 before resigning in disgrace in 2013 and being replaced by the loathsome Jenrick.
Jenrick might have a 21,800 seat majority and have got 63% at the last election but as we all know 2019 was a lifetime ago politically and Jenrick is no where near as popular locally as he once was.
Yes he will probably win again but it is no where near as certain as the raw figures might indicate.