And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.
Hum. On Baxter's reckoning, South Holland has gone on those figures. Steve Barclay may just cling on, only by a whisker. I think the only other one left anyone has actually heard of is Gavin Williamson who more or less becomes leader of the rump, but not LOTO as the LDs are the HMLO. The Tories come ahead of the SNP. I look forward to hearing this last point emphasised from whoever is Tory spokesman on election night. (Who gets that gig by the way? Tricky one.)
IF this happens
A. It will be hilariously brilliant and
B. Farage will of course take over, the Tories will have no choice
You need to start getting suitably miserable about the coming hegemony of a man (SKS) who embodies everything you hate. I did it from Dec 19 to July 22. I didn't shirk it, pretending I was all cool about it. I turned to face the strain. Take a leaf.
nooo, I’m now quite detached from UK politics on an emotional level. I’ve basically emigrated
It’s now more intellectual and also familial. I have many people back home in Blighty, I want what’s best for them
But the visceral stuff I have left behind
Post election analysis from Germany says young voters have ditched the Greens and headed off rightwards. Given 16 and 17 year olds could vote for the first time Starmer's wheeze may nor be as clever as he thinks.
If I were in Labour's team I wouldn't be particularly happy with polls indicating a 300 seat majority, because the party always has a problem getting out the vote on election day when it looks like they're going to win easily. 2001 is a good example.
Desperate stuff Andy
I'm not sure it is. Labour do have a problem with 'we've won, why bother'. In fact, I think all parties have that problem.
2017 showed it in reverse. "Corbyn's lost and lost heavily - I can safely vote Labour because he's lost so much."
Well I feel you’re completely missing the mood then.
People are seething angry with the tories this time and they’re sure as heck going to vote them out.
Oh no, I think Labour will win; but there are lazy people out there who will think, on the day, why bother.
Of course, all I can report from is Bootle.... and guess what? You wouldn't know there was an election on. Not a poster, not a leaflet, nothing. Labour have won, so go campaign somewhere else. Everyone else has lost, so go campaign somewhere else. Our LD candidate is campaigning in Southport. They want to get second place back.
I'm in Cumbria, a key battleground as they say. All seats currently Tory (except Farron); all expected to go Labour (except Farron); massive boundary changes. Everyone should be fighting tooth and nail, as with special luck and a wind behind them the Tories might just keep a seat.
Here, Not a poster. Not a leaflet. Nothing. (Though I spotted a Labour group elsewhere in the county one afternoon).
I'm currently staying in an exceptionally safe Tory seat. So far I've seen one Lib Dem and one Labour poster. Not exactly screaming "enthusiasm" to be honest.
Driving through Kirkby Lonsdale - a fair number of Tim Farron Lib Dem posters..
Nick Robinson: "Having your own home has got harder under a Conservative government, hasn't it?" Rishi Sunak: "It has got harder, and I want to make sure that it's easier."
And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.
Hum. On Baxter's reckoning, South Holland has gone on those figures. Steve Barclay may just cling on, only by a whisker. I think the only other one left anyone has actually heard of is Gavin Williamson who more or less becomes leader of the rump, but not LOTO as the LDs are the HMLO. The Tories come ahead of the SNP. I look forward to hearing this last point emphasised from whoever is Tory spokesman on election night. (Who gets that gig by the way? Tricky one.)
IF this happens
A. It will be hilariously brilliant and
B. Farage will of course take over, the Tories will have no choice
You need to start getting suitably miserable about the coming hegemony of a man (SKS) who embodies everything you hate. I did it from Dec 19 to July 22. I didn't shirk it, pretending I was all cool about it. I turned to face the strain. Take a leaf.
But now you'll be crapping yourself that Farage is the grand fromage.
remember you put him there.
My sense is the Reform thing doesn't quite happen. Not with Nige anyway. The search for our strongman saviour goes on. Meanwhile SKS gets about his lawful business of running the country.
When you live under the boot of Gavin Williamson you'll see it differently
I know this is Political Betting and I post in here a lot, but I have just placed my first ever political bet.
Couldn’t resist myself at 66/1…
Well done but what a tease! What did you bet on?
They've told you!
I am 66/1 to win Aberdeenshire North and Moray East. Whilst I think it’s a stretch to think I could come from 3rd to win, given the chaos in the Tory camp and the loathing I am hearing from SNP supporters, it’s not that long a shot.
Who are we imagining playing Mr Redfield and Mr Wilton? Lowe and le Mesurier feels canonical, Fry and Laurie could update it, Armstrong and Miller would insist on being edgy.
I've read a lot of manifestos. One thing I am always wary of is when new bodies and posts are proposed. It is a good way of appearing to do something when either not doing much (if you don't really add any new funding or organisation), or promising way to much (if you don't add enough), or disguising a massive new cost (by not noting how much it would cost to make the body/group useful).
A good example is the Electoral Commission imo. Elections were run perfectly well by local councils before 2001 when it was set up. There was no need for it.
I've read a lot of manifestos. One thing I am always wary of is when new bodies and posts are proposed. It is a good way of appearing to do something when either not doing much (if you don't really add any new funding or organisation), or promising way to much (if you don't add enough), or disguising a massive new cost (by not noting how much it would cost to make the body/group useful).
A good example is the Electoral Commission imo. Elections were run perfectly well by local councils before 2001 when it was set up. There was no need for it.
I know this is Political Betting and I post in here a lot, but I have just placed my first ever political bet.
Couldn’t resist myself at 66/1…
Well done but what a tease! What did you bet on?
They've told you!
I am 66/1 to win Aberdeenshire North and Moray East. Whilst I think it’s a stretch to think I could come from 3rd to win, given the chaos in the Tory camp and the loathing I am hearing from SNP supporters, it’s not that long a shot.
"Drivers of larger, heavier vehicles tend to drive more recklessly." https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11002-024-09733-7 A clear trend of shifting towards larger, heavier vehicles on roads fuels what has been described as an “arms race.”"
Tax cars by weight.
Absolutely agree, especially given the fourth power relationship between relative axle weight and mass. I.E: My little 1000kg Miata does sixteen times less damage to the road than a 2000kg vanity panzer.
I also detest SUVs. Triumph of marketing over substance. There's nothing a lard-arsed X5 can do that a 5-series can't, with the slight exception of a higher hip point (that can be resolved with good seat design).
Exactly, your little Miata should pay 1/16 of the tax of some two tonne behemoth. Prices of Caterhams and Elises will go up though, so let me buy one of those before they change the rules!
Who are we imagining playing Mr Redfield and Mr Wilton? Lowe and le Mesurier feels canonical, Fry and Laurie could update it, Armstrong and Miller would insist on being edgy.
Maybe Cook and Moore.
Depends who makes it, if it’s ITV then Toby Jones and Sheridan Smith. BBC, Phoebe Waller-Bridge and Paddy McGuiness.
If I were in Labour's team I wouldn't be particularly happy with polls indicating a 300 seat majority, because the party always has a problem getting out the vote on election day when it looks like they're going to win easily. 2001 is a good example.
Desperate stuff Andy
I'm not sure it is. Labour do have a problem with 'we've won, why bother'. In fact, I think all parties have that problem.
2017 showed it in reverse. "Corbyn's lost and lost heavily - I can safely vote Labour because he's lost so much."
Well I feel you’re completely missing the mood then.
People are seething angry with the tories this time and they’re sure as heck going to vote them out.
Oh no, I think Labour will win; but there are lazy people out there who will think, on the day, why bother.
Of course, all I can report from is Bootle.... and guess what? You wouldn't know there was an election on. Not a poster, not a leaflet, nothing. Labour have won, so go campaign somewhere else. Everyone else has lost, so go campaign somewhere else. Our LD candidate is campaigning in Southport. They want to get second place back.
I'm in Cumbria, a key battleground as they say. All seats currently Tory (except Farron); all expected to go Labour (except Farron); massive boundary changes. Everyone should be fighting tooth and nail, as with special luck and a wind behind them the Tories might just keep a seat.
Here, Not a poster. Not a leaflet. Nothing. (Though I spotted a Labour group elsewhere in the county one afternoon).
I'm currently staying in an exceptionally safe Tory seat. So far I've seen one Lib Dem and one Labour poster. Not exactly screaming "enthusiasm" to be honest.
To be fair I think the Conservative campaign is focused on social media aka boomer Facebook. Trad leafleting and canvassing probably a waste of time for them.
Sorry, I don't mean ad posters, I mean those front-garden signs with "Winning Here" and "Save the NHS" and "Shoot immigrants on sight" or whatever REFUK have on theirs.
I was on holiday in the Perthshire/Angus area last week. I didn't notice any party political posters, but I did see some campaigning for more expensive electricity* .
* Actually they were campaigning against "monster" pylons but , you know, physics.
I know this is Political Betting and I post in here a lot, but I have just placed my first ever political bet.
Couldn’t resist myself at 66/1…
Well done but what a tease! What did you bet on?
They've told you!
I am 66/1 to win Aberdeenshire North and Moray East. Whilst I think it’s a stretch to think I could come from 3rd to win, given the chaos in the Tory camp and the loathing I am hearing from SNP supporters, it’s not that long a shot.
I think you've got a decent chance actually. It depends how much of the "Fuck this shite" vote you pick up, but I think that'll be substantial this election.
If I were in Labour's team I wouldn't be particularly happy with polls indicating a 300 seat majority, because the party always has a problem getting out the vote on election day when it looks like they're going to win easily. 2001 is a good example.
If I were in Labour's team I wouldn't be particularly happy with polls indicating a 300 seat majority, because the party always has a problem getting out the vote on election day when it looks like they're going to win easily. 2001 is a good example.
Desperate stuff Andy
I'm not sure it is. Labour do have a problem with 'we've won, why bother'. In fact, I think all parties have that problem.
2017 showed it in reverse. "Corbyn's lost and lost heavily - I can safely vote Labour because he's lost so much."
Well I feel you’re completely missing the mood then.
People are seething angry with the tories this time and they’re sure as heck going to vote them out.
Oh no, I think Labour will win; but there are lazy people out there who will think, on the day, why bother.
Of course, all I can report from is Bootle.... and guess what? You wouldn't know there was an election on. Not a poster, not a leaflet, nothing. Labour have won, so go campaign somewhere else. Everyone else has lost, so go campaign somewhere else. Our LD candidate is campaigning in Southport. They want to get second place back.
I'm in Cumbria, a key battleground as they say. All seats currently Tory (except Farron); all expected to go Labour (except Farron); massive boundary changes. Everyone should be fighting tooth and nail, as with special luck and a wind behind them the Tories might just keep a seat.
Here, Not a poster. Not a leaflet. Nothing. (Though I spotted a Labour group elsewhere in the county one afternoon).
I'm currently staying in an exceptionally safe Tory seat. So far I've seen one Lib Dem and one Labour poster. Not exactly screaming "enthusiasm" to be honest.
To be fair I think the Conservative campaign is focused on social media aka boomer Facebook. Trad leafleting and canvassing probably a waste of time for them.
Sorry, I don't mean ad posters, I mean those front-garden signs with "Winning Here" and "Save the NHS" and "Shoot immigrants on sight" or whatever REFUK have on theirs.
I was on holiday in the Perthshire/Angus area last week. I didn't notice any party political posters, but I did see some campaigning for more expensive electricity* .
* Actually they were campaigning against "monster" pylons but , you know, physics.
Yes, I've seen those in that area. Bunch of fucking BANANAS.
Who are we imagining playing Mr Redfield and Mr Wilton? Lowe and le Mesurier feels canonical, Fry and Laurie could update it, Armstrong and Miller would insist on being edgy.
Maybe Cook and Moore.
Depends who makes it, if it’s ITV then Toby Jones and Sheridan Smith. BBC, Phoebe Waller-Bridge and Paddy McGuiness.
Sid James and Bernard Bresslaw naturally. Kenneth Williams plays Damian Lyons Lowe with Charles Hawtrey reprising his seminal Matt Goodwin role
"Drivers of larger, heavier vehicles tend to drive more recklessly." https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11002-024-09733-7 A clear trend of shifting towards larger, heavier vehicles on roads fuels what has been described as an “arms race.”"
Tax cars by weight.
Absolutely agree, especially given the fourth power relationship between relative axle weight and mass. I.E: My little 1000kg Miata does sixteen times less damage to the road than a 2000kg vanity panzer.
I also detest SUVs. Triumph of marketing over substance. There's nothing a lard-arsed X5 can do that a 5-series can't, with the slight exception of a higher hip point (that can be resolved with good seat design).
Exactly, your little Miata should pay 1/16 of the tax of some two tonne behemoth. Prices of Caterhams and Elises will go up though, so let me buy one of those before they change the rules!
I'm looking forward to the M25 looking like Club Day at Brands Hatch.
U-turns from Tories. Potholes, failure of electric charging points.
Freeze rail fares
Extend electrification
Boost bus services
New cycling networks
More roads budgets to local councils
New railway agency
Improve accessibility at all stations
Connect cities in north
‘reviewing’ cancellation of HS2 (note – very clearly not promising to reverse it)
Half fares for 18 year olds on buses and trains, 1/3 off for those under 25
Super tax on private jets
Culture media and sport
Protect BBC and channel 4
Short term travel for UK to perform in EU and vice versa
Invest in leisure
Creative enterprise zones
Anti-slapp law
Free access to national museum
Minister of state for tourism
Compulsory levy on gambling companies
Gambling ombudsman
Independent football regulator
Expand free to air fixtures
Immigration and asylum
Training on smuggling, trafficking and modern slavery
Work visa policy our of home office
Scrap Rwanda
Work with France to stop smuggling (note – don’t we do this every few years?)
Full settled status for Eu citizens
Compensation for windrush
28 day detention limit for adult migrants
Rights and Equality
Tories threatening to rip up HRA (note – true)
Race equality strategy
Misogyny a hate crime – resources to prosecute all hate crimes (note – this sounds very expensive and time consuming)
Ban conversion threapy
Scrap anti protest laws
Digital bill of rights
Expose and confront stereotyping, demagoguery and hate speech in public life and the media (note - doesn’t sound very liberal, or a role for government to me)
Diversity targets for public appointments
Name blind recruitment in public sector (note – good)
Incorporate another UN convention into law on disability
I wonder if Reform have a ceiling of about 16-20%, which will always be lower than the Tory base.
Around 4-6% who previously would have voted for the BNP and similar parties, plus about half of the overall Tory base in better times for them, such as the early 30's % level that they didn't end up moving below for a long time.
Who are we imagining playing Mr Redfield and Mr Wilton? Lowe and le Mesurier feels canonical, Fry and Laurie could update it, Armstrong and Miller would insist on being edgy.
Who are we imagining playing Mr Redfield and Mr Wilton? Lowe and le Mesurier feels canonical, Fry and Laurie could update it, Armstrong and Miller would insist on being edgy.
Maybe Cook and Moore.
Cook and Moore is great casting for the canonical issue.
Who are we imagining playing Mr Redfield and Mr Wilton? Lowe and le Mesurier feels canonical, Fry and Laurie could update it, Armstrong and Miller would insist on being edgy.
Maybe Cook and Moore.
Depends who makes it, if it’s ITV then Toby Jones and Sheridan Smith. BBC, Phoebe Waller-Bridge and Paddy McGuiness.
Sid James and Bernard Bresslaw naturally. Kenneth Williams plays Damian Lyons Lowe with Charles Hawtrey reprising his seminal Matt Goodwin role
I was wondering about pairing Kenneth Williams with Hugh Paddick,
Don't you worry Mr Sunak, we'll tell you where you can find a safe seat for your Honourable Members...
U-turns from Tories. Potholes, failure of electric charging points.
Freeze rail fares
Extend electrification
Boost bus services
New cycling networks
More roads budgets to local councils
New railway agency
Improve accessibility at all stations
Connect cities in north
‘reviewing’ cancellation of HS2 (note – very clearly not promising to reverse it)
Half fares for 18 year olds on buses and trains, 1/3 off for those under 25
Super tax on private jets
Culture media and sport
Protect BBC and channel 4
Short term travel for UK to perform in EU and vice versa
Invest in leisure
Creative enterprise zones
Anti-slapp law
Free access to national museum
Minister of state for tourism
Compulsory levy on gambling companies
Gambling ombudsman
Independent football regulator
Expand free to air fixtures
Immigration and asylum
Training on smuggling, trafficking and modern slavery
Work visa policy our of home office
Scrap Rwanda
Work with France to stop smuggling (note – don’t we do this every few years?)
Full settled status for Eu citizens
Compensation for windrush
28 day detention limit for adult migrants
Rights and Equality
Tories threatening to rip up HRA (note – true)
Race equality strategy
Misogyny a hate crime – resources to prosecute all hate crimes (note – this sounds very expensive and time consuming)
Ban conversion threapy
Scrap anti protest laws
Digital bill of rights
Expose and confront stereotyping, demagoguery and hate speech in public life and the media (note - doesn’t sound very liberal, or a role for government to me)
Diversity targets for public appointments
Name blind recruitment in public sector (note – good)
Incorporate another UN convention into law on disability
Who are we imagining playing Mr Redfield and Mr Wilton? Lowe and le Mesurier feels canonical, Fry and Laurie could update it, Armstrong and Miller would insist on being edgy.
Maybe Cook and Moore.
Depends who makes it, if it’s ITV then Toby Jones and Sheridan Smith. BBC, Phoebe Waller-Bridge and Paddy McGuiness.
Sid James and Bernard Bresslaw naturally. Kenneth Williams plays Damian Lyons Lowe with Charles Hawtrey reprising his seminal Matt Goodwin role
I was wondering about pairing Kenneth Williams with Hugh Paddock,
Don't you worry Mr Sunak, we'll tell you where you can find a safe seat for your Honourable Members...
Nick Robinson: "Having your own home has got harder under a Conservative government, hasn't it?" Rishi Sunak: "It has got harder, and I want to make sure that it's easier."
Ye gods.
It's not even 'We're going to make it easier.' or 'We have a plan to make it easier', just 'I want to...' - like he should be re-elected because it's awfully nice that he wants everyone to own a home.
Implacably determined not to change anything, because changing anything worthwhile is going to challenge some vested interests, which he'll never do.
I know this is Political Betting and I post in here a lot, but I have just placed my first ever political bet.
Couldn’t resist myself at 66/1…
Well done but what a tease! What did you bet on?
They've told you!
I am 66/1 to win Aberdeenshire North and Moray East. Whilst I think it’s a stretch to think I could come from 3rd to win, given the chaos in the Tory camp and the loathing I am hearing from SNP supporters, it’s not that long a shot.
I think you've got a decent chance actually. It depends how much of the "Fuck this shite" vote you pick up, but I think that'll be substantial this election.
My colleagues in neighbouring seats won’t be happy - I have the shortest odds of any LibDem in the NE.
The Duguid assassination transformed the campaign. Had he been left alone there would have been no visible Tory campaign and a great deal of sympathy. Now? Banff and Buchan Tories leaking scandals to the press to wreck the usurper.
TUV trying to claim that Farage is acting alone and the Refuk pact still stands:
Mr Allister said he understands that this is Mr Farage's "personal" opinion and not the party's decision. "It doesn’t seem to be party endorsement and he only seems to be endorsing two of the DUP candidates, not the leader or anyone else, so it is a bit muddled," he added. Mr Allister also said members of Reform UK have told him that the pact between their party and the TUV "still stands". https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c988p1xz2qdo
Tough luck, Jim - Farage owns Refuk and his word is law. There's not even a mechanism for party officers to challenge him, let alone junior members of a pact.
General Election Competition In how many seats will: 1. Reform beat Conservative (don't count draws)? 140 2. Labour finish 3rd or lower (don't count where they didn't stand)? 80 3. Conservatives lose their deposit? 25 4. Lib Dems lose their deposit? 140 5. Reform lose their deposit? 40 6. Labour lose their deposit? 3
How big: 7. Will the largest winning vote margin be? 35000 8. Will the biggest notional majority defeated be (only count where the incumbent party stands)? 23000
How small: 9. Will the smallest winning vote margin be (1st - 2nd)? 17 10. Will the smallest gap between 1st and 3rd be? 750 11. Will the lowest number of votes for any candidate? 17
How many: 12. Parties will be elected (whether or not they take their seats. All true independents are grouped as a single party)? 13
13. Seats will the Conservatives win? 102 14. Seats will Labour win? 451 15. Seats will Lib Dems win? 45 16. Seats will the SNP win? 24 17. Seats will Sinn Fein win? 7 18. Seats will DUP win? 5 19. Seats will Reform come second in? 140
What percentage vote: 20. Will Conservatives get across the UK? 24% 21. Will Reform get across the UK? 13% 22. Will SNP get in Scotland? 33% 23. Will be lowest of any winning candidate? 30% 24. Will be highest of any 2nd place candidate? 41% 25. Will Speaker get? 80%
U-turns from Tories. Potholes, failure of electric charging points.
Freeze rail fares
Extend electrification
Boost bus services
New cycling networks
More roads budgets to local councils
New railway agency
Improve accessibility at all stations
Connect cities in north
‘reviewing’ cancellation of HS2 (note – very clearly not promising to reverse it)
Half fares for 18 year olds on buses and trains, 1/3 off for those under 25
Super tax on private jets
Culture media and sport
Protect BBC and channel 4
Short term travel for UK to perform in EU and vice versa
Invest in leisure
Creative enterprise zones
Anti-slapp law
Free access to national museum
Minister of state for tourism
Compulsory levy on gambling companies
Gambling ombudsman
Independent football regulator
Expand free to air fixtures
Immigration and asylum
Training on smuggling, trafficking and modern slavery
Work visa policy our of home office
Scrap Rwanda
Work with France to stop smuggling (note – don’t we do this every few years?)
Full settled status for Eu citizens
Compensation for windrush
28 day detention limit for adult migrants
Rights and Equality
Tories threatening to rip up HRA (note – true)
Race equality strategy
Misogyny a hate crime – resources to prosecute all hate crimes (note – this sounds very expensive and time consuming)
Ban conversion threapy
Scrap anti protest laws
Digital bill of rights
Expose and confront stereotyping, demagoguery and hate speech in public life and the media (note - doesn’t sound very liberal, or a role for government to me)
Diversity targets for public appointments
Name blind recruitment in public sector (note – good)
Incorporate another UN convention into law on disability
Bit harsh on Rwanda to scrap the country just because they signed up to the Tories' tawdry asylum scam.
Other than that, I can;t see anything I wouldn't vote for. Which is as well, because I am going to vote for the LDs.
I know this is Political Betting and I post in here a lot, but I have just placed my first ever political bet.
Couldn’t resist myself at 66/1…
Well done but what a tease! What did you bet on?
Himself!
Oh!
Is Rochdale standing in, erm, Rochdale? If so, for which Party?
No he is standing as a lib dem in scotland, an irrelevant party in an irrelevant country
Except it's the seat the Douglas Ross parachuted himself into and it's not SNP territory.
erm not sure what that has to do with what I said.....are you trying to say the lib dems are not irrelevant or scotland isn't?
I'm saying that if the parties who come 1st / 2nd last time round are not doing that well. RP may not win but he has a way better chance in this election then any other election..
"Drivers of larger, heavier vehicles tend to drive more recklessly." https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11002-024-09733-7 A clear trend of shifting towards larger, heavier vehicles on roads fuels what has been described as an “arms race.”"
Tax cars by weight.
Absolutely agree, especially given the fourth power relationship between relative axle weight and mass. I.E: My little 1000kg Miata does sixteen times less damage to the road than a 2000kg vanity panzer.
I also detest SUVs. Triumph of marketing over substance. There's nothing a lard-arsed X5 can do that a 5-series can't, with the slight exception of a higher hip point (that can be resolved with good seat design).
Exactly, your little Miata should pay 1/16 of the tax of some two tonne behemoth. Prices of Caterhams and Elises will go up though, so let me buy one of those before they change the rules!
Caterhams were fun four decades ago. On today’s British roads, they’re pointless - and potentially lethal if you get in a collision.
I can't help but notice that the labour manifesto does not mention the eu one way or another. There certainly isn't a promise of what they won't do in regard to the continent. And now lib dem are declaring for sm in their manifesto....
Liberal democrat manifesto part 6 Political reform
STV
Scrap voter ID
16 year old votes
Ministerial code in legislation
House of lords to have democratic mandate (note – meaning what?)
Written constitution (note – this is one huge job!)
Oppose second referendum for Scotland (note – personally I don’t want one, but they voted SNP in Holyrood so should have had one)
EU citizens to have vote in all elections, and anyone else with five years residency and right to remain (note – why so generous?)
Legal requirement to inform people of steps to register (note – they already do this!)
Overseas constituencies
Parliament to set elections
Recall MPs who commit sexual harassment (note – at conviction?)
Require parties to publish candidate diversity (note – I don’t see how it is any of our business who parties adopt as candidates)
Local and national citizen assemblies – still not explanation as to why these help more than what we have now.
Horizon compensation
A rule about PMs serving one year for public duty cost allowance fund (don’t know what this is, but seems like a petty rule)
Government instant messaing placed on departmental record and publish lobbying messages (note – good idea)
UK Council Of Ministers with devolved and regional ministers (note – what would this do?
Sections on NI, Wales, Scotland
Constitutional Convention – Federal Constitution
Defence
Reverse cuts to army,
2.5% spending
Fair deal for service personnel – legal duty on armed forces convenant, improve housing
Parliamentary vote before military action (note – what level of action?) – but retrospective vote for emergencies and treaty obligations (note – what if the vote is defeated?)
Tackle defence procurement issues (note – genius)
Cooperate with partners
International
LDs stand up for British values.
Protect democracies.
Rebuild relationships with allies
Stand with Ukraine
Immediate gaza ceasefire, support two state solution
Champion for freedom of belief
Rejoin single market (note – but making clear this would be some way down the line)
I know this is Political Betting and I post in here a lot, but I have just placed my first ever political bet.
Couldn’t resist myself at 66/1…
Well done but what a tease! What did you bet on?
They've told you!
I am 66/1 to win Aberdeenshire North and Moray East. Whilst I think it’s a stretch to think I could come from 3rd to win, given the chaos in the Tory camp and the loathing I am hearing from SNP supporters, it’s not that long a shot.
You need to tell the Tory voters that only you can stop the SNP, and the SNP voters that only you can stop the Tories.
I know this is Political Betting and I post in here a lot, but I have just placed my first ever political bet.
Couldn’t resist myself at 66/1…
Well done but what a tease! What did you bet on?
Himself!
Oh!
Is Rochdale standing in, erm, Rochdale? If so, for which Party?
No he is standing as a lib dem in scotland, an irrelevant party in an irrelevant country
Except it's the seat the Douglas Ross parachuted himself into and it's not SNP territory.
erm not sure what that has to do with what I said.....are you trying to say the lib dems are not irrelevant or scotland isn't?
I'm saying that if the parties who come 1st / 2nd last time round are not doing that well. RP may not win but he has a way better chance in this election then any other election..
The lib dems wont get many more mp's than they have now because who wants to vote for them? Mostly the votes they get aren't because they have good policies its because they were nota....well they blew that in 2015. People saw what happens when the lib dems get in power and have seen them for the janus faced idiots they are
So far, have seen three election yard-signs posted for our upcoming WA State primary on August 6, all three for Governor (incumbent is NOT running for a 4th term).
> One sign for Republican Semi Bird, the "nominee" of the WA State Republican Party (worth the price of a 16oz latte, maybe), Trump anointed, was recalled by voters from local school board in VERY conservative area in eastern WA, for anti-vaxxism. BTW (also FYI) he is African American
This sign BTW was posted in a Seattle city park, left over from a VERY mini-gathering of GOPers in my VERY Democratic hood.
> Two signs for Democrat Mark Mullet, a socially-liberal, economically-conservative state senator from affluent burbs east of Seattle; one sign was in the yard of a house, the other just outside an apartment complex; interestingly one was standard "vote for" sign, while other said "Vote for the Mullet" which struck me as odd, seeing as how many associate THAT with DJT.
Note that IMHO neither of these candidates is likely to make the primary Top Two and thus advance to the general election. Those two will almost certainly be Democrat Bob Ferguson, current WA Attorney General and Republican Dave Reichert, former King Co Sheriff and ex-US Congressman.
The LD manifesto gives the impression of a mini 2019 Corbyn manifesto - just an endless wishlist with no sense of how any of it would be paid for.
I find it strange when disillusioned Conservative moderates say they will vote LD. I'm a moderate Conservative and I would much rather a Starmer Lab Govt than an LD Govt attempting to implement that manifesto.
I guess the answer would be they know they won't be in Govt so they can just say anything. But it gives the impression that they are totally irresponsible.
I know this is Political Betting and I post in here a lot, but I have just placed my first ever political bet.
Couldn’t resist myself at 66/1…
Well done but what a tease! What did you bet on?
They've told you!
I am 66/1 to win Aberdeenshire North and Moray East. Whilst I think it’s a stretch to think I could come from 3rd to win, given the chaos in the Tory camp and the loathing I am hearing from SNP supporters, it’s not that long a shot.
Will you have a stall at the Portsoy boat festival?
Who are we imagining playing Mr Redfield and Mr Wilton? Lowe and le Mesurier feels canonical, Fry and Laurie could update it, Armstrong and Miller would insist on being edgy.
Maybe Cook and Moore.
Depends who makes it, if it’s ITV then Toby Jones and Sheridan Smith. BBC, Phoebe Waller-Bridge and Paddy McGuiness.
If it’s BBC Mr. Redfield will be black and Mr. Wilton will be gay.
I know this is Political Betting and I post in here a lot, but I have just placed my first ever political bet.
Couldn’t resist myself at 66/1…
Well done but what a tease! What did you bet on?
Himself!
Oh!
Is Rochdale standing in, erm, Rochdale? If so, for which Party?
No he is standing as a lib dem in scotland, an irrelevant party in an irrelevant country
Except it's the seat the Douglas Ross parachuted himself into and it's not SNP territory.
erm not sure what that has to do with what I said.....are you trying to say the lib dems are not irrelevant or scotland isn't?
I'm saying that if the parties who come 1st / 2nd last time round are not doing that well. RP may not win but he has a way better chance in this election then any other election..
The lib dems wont get many more mp's than they have now because who wants to vote for them? Mostly the votes they get aren't because they have good policies its because they were nota....well they blew that in 2015. People saw what happens when the lib dems get in power and have seen them for the janus faced idiots they are
I know this is Political Betting and I post in here a lot, but I have just placed my first ever political bet.
Couldn’t resist myself at 66/1…
Well done but what a tease! What did you bet on?
They've told you!
I am 66/1 to win Aberdeenshire North and Moray East. Whilst I think it’s a stretch to think I could come from 3rd to win, given the chaos in the Tory camp and the loathing I am hearing from SNP supporters, it’s not that long a shot.
You need to tell the Tory voters that only you can stop the SNP, and the SNP voters that only you can stop the Tories.
I know this is Political Betting and I post in here a lot, but I have just placed my first ever political bet.
Couldn’t resist myself at 66/1…
Well done but what a tease! What did you bet on?
They've told you!
I am 66/1 to win Aberdeenshire North and Moray East. Whilst I think it’s a stretch to think I could come from 3rd to win, given the chaos in the Tory camp and the loathing I am hearing from SNP supporters, it’s not that long a shot.
You need to tell the Tory voters that only you can stop the SNP, and the SNP voters that only you can stop the Tories.
Doing the first bit. I am the only LOCAL candidate who can stop the SNP. DRoss lives a couple of hours away. And the SNP voters I have spoken to are deeply unhappy with public service cuts and broken promises.
Nick Robinson: "Having your own home has got harder under a Conservative government, hasn't it?" Rishi Sunak: "It has got harder, and I want to make sure that it's easier."
Ye gods.
It's not even 'We're going to make it easier.' or 'We have a plan to make it easier', just 'I want to...' - like he should be re-elected because it's awfully nice that he wants everyone to own a home.
Implacably determined not to change anything, because changing anything worthwhile is going to challenge some vested interests, which he'll never do.
What amazed me was that he unresistingly acknowledged the suggestion that it had "got harder under a Conservative government".
As a result, the current headline on the BBC news website is: "Now harder to have own home under Conservatives, Sunak says in BBC interview."
I know this is Political Betting and I post in here a lot, but I have just placed my first ever political bet.
Couldn’t resist myself at 66/1…
Well done but what a tease! What did you bet on?
They've told you!
I am 66/1 to win Aberdeenshire North and Moray East. Whilst I think it’s a stretch to think I could come from 3rd to win, given the chaos in the Tory camp and the loathing I am hearing from SNP supporters, it’s not that long a shot.
I think you've got a decent chance actually. It depends how much of the "Fuck this shite" vote you pick up, but I think that'll be substantial this election.
I hate to say this, and good luck, but according to Baxter, if the result is as Redfield today on UNS then the Tories have but 24 seats left, but one of them is......Aberdeenshire North and Moray by a whisker from SNP.
So let's say actually the Tories are only getting 23 seats.
I can't help but notice that the labour manifesto does not mention the eu one way or another. There certainly isn't a promise of what they won't do in regard to the continent. And now lib dem are declaring for sm in their manifesto....
Where did you get your advance copy of the Labour Manifesto?
Welcome to an odd phenonomen called weather. Been around for a while. Shortly will be 80 years since the great channel storm of 1944 which wrecked the newly built harbour at Omaha. There is a reason that 1976 stands out. Summer in the U.K. is very often shit.
I know this is Political Betting and I post in here a lot, but I have just placed my first ever political bet.
Couldn’t resist myself at 66/1…
Wow! I am amazed at how many on here, a site all about betting on politics, don’t actually get on politics. How many people buy the racing post just to read about horses?
Cleverley pulled out of an intvw last minute this pm. I think a manifesto rewrite/write in is underway
Probably a last minute change to include something on IHT.
Full compensation package for all WASPI women, matching the Lib Dems
still no idea why they should get compo
Because they think the way that pension equalisation was done was unfair to them in terms of notice given (so not enough time to get affairs in order for retirement). I say stuff them - men die earlier than women on average so should get pensions earlier, not later.
Liberal Democrat Manifesto 2024 Part 5 Natural Environment
Nature crisis. Sewage scandal.
Water companies to be public benefit companies, replace Ofwat
‘Double nature’ by 2050
60 million trees a year
Clean air act
Sewage tax on water company profits
Completing coastal path
Human right to healthy environment
Join European environment agency
New developments have biodiversity net gain (note – people object even when this is the case now)
‘ambition’ of ending plastic waste exports by 2030 (note – so not planning to do it then)
Restore peatlands, enhance temperate rainforest,
Food and Farming
Against ultra processed foods. Farmers under pressure.
National food strategy
Restore woodland, peatland, and waterways
Public money for public goods programmes
Renegotiate Australia and New Zealand
Ensure independent advice to farmers on new environmental farm payments scheme (Note – funded by government, so independent?)
Animal welfare bill
Housing
380k homes per year, including 150k social homes, garden cities, community led development
Ban no fault evictions, default 3 year tenancies, right to end right to buy
Scrap vagrancy act
Expand neighbourhood planning (note – this process is slow, expensive, and needs constant revision, how will expanding it help?)
10 new garden cities
Properly fund planning departments (note – so…councils won’t fund their own planning departments, or will be subsidized? It says set their own fees, but by how much?)
Encourage use of rural exception sites (note – locals hate these)
Encourage development of brownfield (ntoe – oh FFS, everyone already tries this)
This section seems like a load of nonsense. Communities and local government
Multi year settlements for local government (note – very useful, but will it happen?)
More control over second homes and short term lets
Powers to tackle climate emergency (note – fluff)
End top down reorganisation of councils and imposition of elected mayors (note – with you on the second, but the first is necessary to save money as unitaries only way for local government to survive)
‘Decentralise decision making from whitehall and westminster’ (note – a load of old wank – every manifesto says this for all parties, it never happens in more than piecemeal fashion)
Invest in leisure centres and swimming pools (note – isn’t this a local government function, not central?)
when I see lists that long it tells me nothing is a priority.
When I see lists that long it tells me 14 years of Conservatives has broken everything.
Liberal Democrat Manifesto 2024 Part 5 Natural Environment
Nature crisis. Sewage scandal.
Water companies to be public benefit companies, replace Ofwat
‘Double nature’ by 2050
60 million trees a year
Clean air act
Sewage tax on water company profits
Completing coastal path
Human right to healthy environment
Join European environment agency
New developments have biodiversity net gain (note – people object even when this is the case now)
‘ambition’ of ending plastic waste exports by 2030 (note – so not planning to do it then)
Restore peatlands, enhance temperate rainforest,
Food and Farming
Against ultra processed foods. Farmers under pressure.
National food strategy
Restore woodland, peatland, and waterways
Public money for public goods programmes
Renegotiate Australia and New Zealand
Ensure independent advice to farmers on new environmental farm payments scheme (Note – funded by government, so independent?)
Animal welfare bill
Housing
380k homes per year, including 150k social homes, garden cities, community led development
Ban no fault evictions, default 3 year tenancies, right to end right to buy
Scrap vagrancy act
Expand neighbourhood planning (note – this process is slow, expensive, and needs constant revision, how will expanding it help?)
10 new garden cities
Properly fund planning departments (note – so…councils won’t fund their own planning departments, or will be subsidized? It says set their own fees, but by how much?)
Encourage use of rural exception sites (note – locals hate these)
Encourage development of brownfield (ntoe – oh FFS, everyone already tries this)
This section seems like a load of nonsense. Communities and local government
Multi year settlements for local government (note – very useful, but will it happen?)
More control over second homes and short term lets
Powers to tackle climate emergency (note – fluff)
End top down reorganisation of councils and imposition of elected mayors (note – with you on the second, but the first is necessary to save money as unitaries only way for local government to survive)
‘Decentralise decision making from whitehall and westminster’ (note – a load of old wank – every manifesto says this for all parties, it never happens in more than piecemeal fashion)
Invest in leisure centres and swimming pools (note – isn’t this a local government function, not central?)
when I see lists that long it tells me nothing is a priority.
When I see lists that long it tells me 14 years of Conservatives has broken everything.
Please accept the Hyperbole Award 2024 for an outstandingly biased and dumb contribution, even by the standards of PB's worst tribalists.
I know this is Political Betting and I post in here a lot, but I have just placed my first ever political bet.
Couldn’t resist myself at 66/1…
Well done but what a tease! What did you bet on?
Himself!
Oh!
Is Rochdale standing in, erm, Rochdale? If so, for which Party?
No he is standing as a lib dem in scotland, an irrelevant party in an irrelevant country
Except it's the seat the Douglas Ross parachuted himself into and it's not SNP territory.
erm not sure what that has to do with what I said.....are you trying to say the lib dems are not irrelevant or scotland isn't?
I'm saying that if the parties who come 1st / 2nd last time round are not doing that well. RP may not win but he has a way better chance in this election then any other election..
The lib dems wont get many more mp's than they have now because who wants to vote for them? Mostly the votes they get aren't because they have good policies its because they were nota....well they blew that in 2015. People saw what happens when the lib dems get in power and have seen them for the janus faced idiots they are
I think this is more prejudice than analysis.
I am not a LD, though have voted for them a few times, and happen to believe that the coalition government was probably the best government of my lifetime.
Comments
Rishi Sunak: "It has got harder, and I want to make sure that it's easier."
Ye gods.
That would be a much fairer punishment for the Tory team.
Maybe Cook and Moore.
Is Rochdale standing in, erm, Rochdale? If so, for which Party?
2019 -> 5:03am
2017 -> 4:38am
2015 -> 4:18am
The LibDem candidate?
Good luck with it.
* Actually they were campaigning against "monster" pylons but , you know, physics.
Optics wise it could go wrong given the huge wealth of the Sunaks . So I’m leaning more to an increased allowance .
Transport
- U-turns from Tories. Potholes, failure of electric charging points.
- Freeze rail fares
- Extend electrification
- Boost bus services
- New cycling networks
- More roads budgets to local councils
- New railway agency
- Improve accessibility at all stations
- Connect cities in north
- ‘reviewing’ cancellation of HS2 (note – very clearly not promising to reverse it)
- Half fares for 18 year olds on buses and trains, 1/3 off for those under 25
- Super tax on private jets
Culture media and sport- Protect BBC and channel 4
- Short term travel for UK to perform in EU and vice versa
- Invest in leisure
- Creative enterprise zones
- Anti-slapp law
- Free access to national museum
- Minister of state for tourism
- Compulsory levy on gambling companies
- Gambling ombudsman
- Independent football regulator
- Expand free to air fixtures
Immigration and asylum- Training on smuggling, trafficking and modern slavery
- Work visa policy our of home office
- Scrap Rwanda
- Work with France to stop smuggling (note – don’t we do this every few years?)
- Full settled status for Eu citizens
- Compensation for windrush
- 28 day detention limit for adult migrants
Rights and EqualityAround 4-6% who previously would have voted for the BNP and similar parties, plus about half of the overall Tory base in better times for them, such as the early 30's % level that they didn't end up moving below for a long time.
Newman and Baddiel for the satirical version.
https://youtu.be/aEQcsuXnnnc?si=sQ4M0mc5AAXAiEZJ
Don't you worry Mr Sunak, we'll tell you where you can find a safe seat for your Honourable Members...
Yessssss and I can PROVE it
https://www.lambda-automata.eu/#
We’re spending billions on kit which will be obsolete before it’s fielded, and peanuts on the future.
Implacably determined not to change anything, because changing anything worthwhile is going to challenge some vested interests, which he'll never do.
The Duguid assassination transformed the campaign. Had he been left alone there would have been no visible Tory campaign and a great deal of sympathy. Now? Banff and Buchan Tories leaking scandals to the press to wreck the usurper.
Mr Allister said he understands that this is Mr Farage's "personal" opinion and not the party's decision.
"It doesn’t seem to be party endorsement and he only seems to be endorsing two of the DUP candidates, not the leader or anyone else, so it is a bit muddled," he added.
Mr Allister also said members of Reform UK have told him that the pact between their party and the TUV "still stands".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c988p1xz2qdo
Tough luck, Jim - Farage owns Refuk and his word is law. There's not even a mechanism for party officers to challenge him, let alone junior members of a pact.
She can’t be any worse than Julie Etchingham.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Shropshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2020s
In how many seats will:
1. Reform beat Conservative (don't count draws)? 140
2. Labour finish 3rd or lower (don't count where they didn't stand)? 80
3. Conservatives lose their deposit? 25
4. Lib Dems lose their deposit? 140
5. Reform lose their deposit? 40
6. Labour lose their deposit? 3
How big:
7. Will the largest winning vote margin be? 35000
8. Will the biggest notional majority defeated be (only count where the incumbent party stands)? 23000
How small:
9. Will the smallest winning vote margin be (1st - 2nd)? 17
10. Will the smallest gap between 1st and 3rd be? 750
11. Will the lowest number of votes for any candidate? 17
How many:
12. Parties will be elected (whether or not they take their seats. All true independents are grouped as a single party)?
13
13. Seats will the Conservatives win? 102
14. Seats will Labour win? 451
15. Seats will Lib Dems win? 45
16. Seats will the SNP win? 24
17. Seats will Sinn Fein win? 7
18. Seats will DUP win? 5
19. Seats will Reform come second in? 140
What percentage vote:
20. Will Conservatives get across the UK? 24%
21. Will Reform get across the UK? 13%
22. Will SNP get in Scotland? 33%
23. Will be lowest of any winning candidate? 30%
24. Will be highest of any 2nd place candidate? 41%
25. Will Speaker get? 80%
@Farooq
https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1800232557612536095?s=19
Would have made Fridays 21 point lead a 17 point one
Reasoning in thread
Other than that, I can;t see anything I wouldn't vote for. Which is as well, because I am going to vote for the LDs.
On today’s British roads, they’re pointless - and potentially lethal if you get in a collision.
Political reform
- STV
- Scrap voter ID
- 16 year old votes
- Ministerial code in legislation
- House of lords to have democratic mandate (note – meaning what?)
- Written constitution (note – this is one huge job!)
- Oppose second referendum for Scotland (note – personally I don’t want one, but they voted SNP in Holyrood so should have had one)
- EU citizens to have vote in all elections, and anyone else with five years residency and right to remain (note – why so generous?)
- Legal requirement to inform people of steps to register (note – they already do this!)
- Overseas constituencies
- Parliament to set elections
- Recall MPs who commit sexual harassment (note – at conviction?)
- Require parties to publish candidate diversity (note – I don’t see how it is any of our business who parties adopt as candidates)
- Local and national citizen assemblies – still not explanation as to why these help more than what we have now.
- Horizon compensation
- A rule about PMs serving one year for public duty cost allowance fund (don’t know what this is, but seems like a petty rule)
- Government instant messaing placed on departmental record and publish lobbying messages (note – good idea)
- UK Council Of Ministers with devolved and regional ministers (note – what would this do?
- Sections on NI, Wales, Scotland
- Constitutional Convention – Federal Constitution
Defence- Reverse cuts to army,
- 2.5% spending
- Fair deal for service personnel – legal duty on armed forces convenant, improve housing
- Parliamentary vote before military action (note – what level of action?) – but retrospective vote for emergencies and treaty obligations (note – what if the vote is defeated?)
- Tackle defence procurement issues (note – genius)
- Cooperate with partners
InternationalYour IRL name just popped up on C4 News, after an interview with Ross.
That’s Liz Truss type thinking.
> One sign for Republican Semi Bird, the "nominee" of the WA State Republican Party (worth the price of a 16oz latte, maybe), Trump anointed, was recalled by voters from local school board in VERY conservative area in eastern WA, for anti-vaxxism. BTW (also FYI) he is African American
This sign BTW was posted in a Seattle city park, left over from a VERY mini-gathering of GOPers in my VERY Democratic hood.
> Two signs for Democrat Mark Mullet, a socially-liberal, economically-conservative state senator from affluent burbs east of Seattle; one sign was in the yard of a house, the other just outside an apartment complex; interestingly one was standard "vote for" sign, while other said "Vote for the Mullet" which struck me as odd, seeing as how many associate THAT with DJT.
Note that IMHO neither of these candidates is likely to make the primary Top Two and thus advance to the general election. Those two will almost certainly be Democrat Bob Ferguson, current WA Attorney General and Republican Dave Reichert, former King Co Sheriff and ex-US Congressman.
I find it strange when disillusioned Conservative moderates say they will vote LD. I'm a moderate Conservative and I would much rather a Starmer Lab Govt than an LD Govt attempting to implement that manifesto.
I guess the answer would be they know they won't be in Govt so they can just say anything. But it gives the impression that they are totally irresponsible.
NEW THREAD
Will there be any way to watch it without having a satellite dish?
Many EU countries don’t reciprocate, you have to be a national from that country . I suspect the Tories are going to after them on that point .
As a result, the current headline on the BBC news website is:
"Now harder to have own home under Conservatives, Sunak says in BBC interview."
He is completely clueless.
So let's say actually the Tories are only getting 23 seats.
Looking at the chaos in your seat, I’m calling it Spot (of bother) Fixing.