I suspect this is sub-optimal for the Tories and Sunak – politicalbetting.com

Heathener said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Largest EVER lead for Starmer over Sunak.

Highest % to pick Starmer.

Joint-lowest % to pick Sunak.

Which of the following do Britons think would be the better PM for the UK? (7-10 June)

Keir Starmer 47% (+3)
Rishi Sunak 26% (-1)

Changes +/- 5-6 June

I’m biased obvs, especially as I’m falling for him, but I’ve heard people saying that they have warmed to him.

It’s the election campaign so he gets fair coverage and by and large it’s not causing Labour problems.

Can we have Leon back? He was more interesting than this nonsense.

Peter_the_Punter said:

Anabobazina said:

Benpointer said:

PedestrianRock said:

Redfield into Electoral Calculus

LAB: 533
LD: 55
CON: 24
REF: 1
SNP: 13
GRN: 2
PC: 4

And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.

This is clearly NOT going to be the outcome.

No way will the Tories cling on to 19% given the way their campaign is going.

PedestrianRock said:

Redfield into Electoral Calculus

LAB: 533
LD: 55
CON: 24
REF: 1
SNP: 13
GRN: 2
PC: 4

And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.

The PR-obsessed Liberals get a 2x FPP bonus on that. Funny old world!!

Laugh? Ed Davey's face would fall in half.

It's actually 2x (now edited) but the point stands!

Benpointer said:

kinabalu said:

numbertwelve said:

PedestrianRock said:

Redfield into Electoral Calculus

LAB: 533
LD: 55
CON: 24
REF: 1
SNP: 13
GRN: 2
PC: 4

And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.

Not sure a situation where one party has over 80% of the seats in our parliament is particularly healthy, but hey, FPTP!

An outcome as crazy as that would surely be the beginning of the end for FPTP.

One would hope. Then again turkeys would have to vote for their own PR Christmas.

Yes it always needs the current beneficiaries to see beyond that. But an outcome that extreme would create very strong pressure for reform imo.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Benpointer said:

Anabobazina said:

kle4 said:

Liberal Democrat Manifesto 2024 Part 1 (no, nobody asked for this)

• For a fair deal – I’ve seen worse slogans, but it does feel like one for a supermarket.
  
• Clear Print/Plain text/ easy read versions available
  
• No hyperlinking of chapters – loss of points right there.
  
• Pictures of Leader – A mere 2
  
• Simple presentation, pictures on different pages to text
  

Foreword

• County needs change. People taken for granted. Families ‘and pensioners’ struggling.
  
• NHS in crisis, sewage in rivers.
  
• Time for change, LDs the answer.
  
• Neef to transform politics, fix health and care, economy, end sewage scandal
  
• LDs local champions. Fair deal means people can afford a home (note – yeah right, with what building?), comfortable retirement, good school, healthcare.
  

Our Fair Deal

• Invest in renewable power and home insultation, bring down energy bills.
  
• Right to see a GP within 7 days, extra doctors (note – how?).
  
• Restore community policing, every burglar investigated – funded through ‘fair taxes’.
  
• Hold big companies to account, ban companies dumping sewage into rivers
  
• Skills training for net zero
  
• Comprehensive agreement with Europe (note – meaning what?)
  
• Reverse cuts to army and international development
  
• PR for MPs and cllrs, cap donations for parties
  
• Shift power to local areas (note – all parties always say this)
  

The Economy

• Support small business (note – who doesn’t?)
  
• Tories botched Brexit and abandoned climate commitments
  
• Will cut energy bills, invest in green infrastructure, fix relationship with Europe, manage finances ‘responsibly’, go after tax avoidance (note – again, everyone says this), taxes will be on big banks and windfalls on oil and gas
  
• Northern Powerhouse, Western Gateway, Midlands Engine
  
• Work with devolved administrations
  
• Gigabit for all
  
• OBR for all fiscal events
  
• Raise tax free personal alliance
  
• Increase digital services tax, close loopholes for capital gains, 4% tax on share buyback of FTSE 100 companies
  
• National financial inclusion strategy (note – not clear what this means, but talks about banking hubs, remote areas for accessing cash, sharia compliant student finance)
  

Which county specifically needs change? Has @Cookie been let loose with the manifesto, trying to abolish Greater Manchester?!

Somerset - this is the LibDem manifesto for Somerset. Their manifestos for other counties can also be downloaded.

(Incidentally, https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast appear to be showing no seats at all for the Tories in Somerset.)

Heading eastward, will it be like the old song says, "Surrey with the fringe on top" in former CUP bastions?

Lib Dem manifesto for Oklahoma!?

If I were in Labour's team I wouldn't be particularly happy with polls indicating a 300 seat majority, because the party always has a problem getting out the vote on election day when it looks like they're going to win easily. 2001 is a good example.

kle4 said:

Liberal Democrat Manifesto 2024 Part 4
Education

• Mental health professional in every school
  
• Funding above inflation every year, invest in new buildings
  
• Tutoring guarantee
  
• Extra funding for disadvantaged
  
• Maintenance grants
  
• Lifelong skills grants for all adults 5k now, 10k in future
  
• Specialist teacher for every secondary subject, more teacher training, fair payrise body, more extra curricular activities, more funding for EHCPs, national body for SEND (note – how the heck will all this be afforded?)
  
• When funding allows more free education for 2 year olds (note – interesting what they feel can be promised now vs what can only be promised when funding allows in future)
  
• Statutory duty of care at higher education, statutory mental health charter
  
• Return to Erasmus
  

Families, Children and Young People

• Free schools meals to children in poverty, then to everyone.
  
• Cabinet Minister for Children and Young People (Note – without a department this is just pandering)
  
• Parental pay for self employed
  
• Incorporate un convention on rights of child into law
  
• Independent body on safety online
  
• Paid neonatal care
  
• Legal aid simplified for family court
  

Pensions and Safety net

• Remove two child limit and benefit gap.
  
• End ‘deep poverty’ in a decade (note – never heard this term before, and if it was achieved a new one would be created)
  
• Triple lock
  
• Pandering to WASPI women
  
• Universal credit payment in 5 days not 5 weeks
  
• Scrap bedroom tax
  
• Taskforce on independent living
  
• Pension fund investments consistent with paris agreements
  

Crime and Policing

• Restore ‘proper’ community policing, statutory guarantee all burglaries investigated (note – in which case why not statutorily guarantee other crime be investigated?)
  
• Invest in criminal justice
  
• Online crime agency
  
• Scrapping pCCs and go back to police boards (note – very good policy, current system is pointless)
  
• Working with Europol and EuroJust (note – who they?)
  
• Name and shame banks with poor record on preventing fraud
  
• Civil remedy for modern slavery survivors
  
• Crack down on puppy and kitten smuggling
  
• Recruit more prison officers (note – how?)
  
• Women’s justice board
  
• More training and education in prison
  

There is a lot of extra spending in there...

rcs1000 said:

Benpointer said:

eek said:

Redfield poll is out

Labour leads by 26%.

Tied-lowest ever Conservative %.

Joint-highest ever Reform UK %.

🇬🇧 Westminster VI (7/6-10/6):

Labour 45% (+3)
Conservative 19% (–)
Reform UK 17% (–)
Lib Dem 10% (-2)
Green 5% (-1)
SNP 3% (–)
Other 1% (-1)

Changes +/- 5/6-6/6

https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1800211448234467631

Another poll which returns LDs as the Official Opposition when put into Electoral Calculus.

Incredible to think that got LibDems might go from six seats to official opposition in less than a decade, and without getting many more votes.

They won eight seats in 2015. Mind you, only 2 of those 8 are currently held by them.

Benpointer said:

Anabobazina said:

Benpointer said:

PedestrianRock said:

Redfield into Electoral Calculus

LAB: 533
LD: 55
CON: 24
REF: 1
SNP: 13
GRN: 2
PC: 4

And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.

This is clearly NOT going to be the outcome.

No way will the Tories cling on to 19% given the way their campaign is going.

PedestrianRock said:

Redfield into Electoral Calculus

LAB: 533
LD: 55
CON: 24
REF: 1
SNP: 13
GRN: 2
PC: 4

And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.

The PR-obsessed Liberals get a 4x FPP bonus on that. Funny old world!!

Payback Time!

You want to give me the ten points in your comp now, Ben?

Or would you prefer we all keep quiet about it?

Leon said:

Why is no one mentioning that London now has the climate of Anchorage, Alaska? Except Anchorage gets more sun

Anchorage:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5879400

London:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743

You are conflating climate and weather. AGAIN.

Andy_JS said:

If I were in Labour's team I wouldn't be particularly happy with polls indicating a 300 seat majority, because the party always has a problem getting out the vote on election day when it looks like they're going to win easily. 2001 is a good example.

Yes, a 2001 outcome would be dreadful. A mere 412 seats and a majority of 167 would be gross underachievement. But we could live with it.

PedestrianRock said:

Redfield into Electoral Calculus

LAB: 533
LD: 55
CON: 24
REF: 1
SNP: 13
GRN: 2
PC: 4

And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.

Hum. On Baxter's reckoning, South Holland has gone on those figures. Steve Barclay may just cling on, only by a whisker. I think the only other one left anyone has actually heard of is Gavin Williamson who more or less becomes leader of the rump, but not LOTO as the LDs are the HMLO. The Tories come ahead of the SNP. I look forward to hearing this last point emphasised from whoever is Tory spokesman on election night. (Who gets that gig by the way? Tricky one.)

Just realised that R&W which dropped is a 10,000 sample size.

Leon said:

Cicero said:

Leon said:

That’s it. I’ve done Kyiv in 2 days flat

Back to sunny sweet bomby Odessa

I would still recommend Chernivtsi, if you can

I spent a week there last year, indeed my stalker wrote about it

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-unbearable-strangeness-of-the-ukraine-war/

Kamenets Podilski?

TheValiant said:

Heathener said:

Andy_JS said:

If I were in Labour's team I wouldn't be particularly happy with polls indicating a 300 seat majority, because the party always has a problem getting out the vote on election day when it looks like they're going to win easily. 2001 is a good example.

Desperate stuff Andy

I'm not sure it is. Labour do have a problem with 'we've won, why bother'. In fact, I think all parties have that problem.

2017 showed it in reverse. "Corbyn's lost and lost heavily - I can safely vote Labour because he's lost so much."

Well I feel you’re completely missing the mood then.

People are seething angry with the tories this time and they’re sure as heck going to vote them out.

Anabobazina said:

Leon said:

Why is no one mentioning that London now has the climate of Anchorage, Alaska? Except Anchorage gets more sun

Anchorage:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5879400

London:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743

You are conflating climate and weather. AGAIN.

Be honest, how do you feel about the London weather of the last 1-2 years

Heathener said:

Just realised that R&W which dropped is a 10,000 sample size.

All their GE Monday polls have been

algarkirk said:

PedestrianRock said:

Redfield into Electoral Calculus

LAB: 533
LD: 55
CON: 24
REF: 1
SNP: 13
GRN: 2
PC: 4

And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.

Hum. On Baxter's reckoning, South Holland has gone on those figures. Steve Barclay may just cling on, only by a whisker. I think the only other one left anyone has actually heard of is Gavin Williamson who more or less becomes leader of the rump, but not LOTO as the LDs are the HMLO. The Tories come ahead of the SNP. I look forward to hearing this last point emphasised from whoever is Tory spokesman on election night. (Who gets that gig by the way? Tricky one.)

IF this happens

A. It will be hilariously brilliant and

B. Farage will of course take over, the Tories will have no choice

Heathener said:

TheValiant said:

Heathener said:

Andy_JS said:

If I were in Labour's team I wouldn't be particularly happy with polls indicating a 300 seat majority, because the party always has a problem getting out the vote on election day when it looks like they're going to win easily. 2001 is a good example.

Desperate stuff Andy

I'm not sure it is. Labour do have a problem with 'we've won, why bother'. In fact, I think all parties have that problem.

2017 showed it in reverse. "Corbyn's lost and lost heavily - I can safely vote Labour because he's lost so much."

Well I feel you’re completely missing the mood then.

People are seething angry with the tories this time and they’re sure as heck going to vote them out.

Oh no, I think Labour will win; but there are lazy people out there who will think, on the day, why bother.

Of course, all I can report from is Bootle.... and guess what? You wouldn't know there was an election on. Not a poster, not a leaflet, nothing.
Labour have won, so go campaign somewhere else.
Everyone else has lost, so go campaign somewhere else.
Our LD candidate is campaigning in Southport. They want to get second place back.

Leon said:

Anabobazina said:

Leon said:

Why is no one mentioning that London now has the climate of Anchorage, Alaska? Except Anchorage gets more sun

Anchorage:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5879400

London:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743

You are conflating climate and weather. AGAIN.

Be honest, how do you feel about the London weather of the last 1-2 years

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

The year has been ridiculously warm. This is called a cold spell, now give us a break.

You’re such a narcissist. You must hate it that you’re not the focus of everyone’s attention.

algarkirk said:

PedestrianRock said:

Redfield into Electoral Calculus

LAB: 533
LD: 55
CON: 24
REF: 1
SNP: 13
GRN: 2
PC: 4

And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.

Hum. On Baxter's reckoning, South Holland has gone on those figures. Steve Barclay may just cling on, only by a whisker. I think the only other one left anyone has actually heard of is Gavin Williamson who more or less becomes leader of the rump, but not LOTO as the LDs are the HMLO. The Tories come ahead of the SNP. I look forward to hearing this last point emphasised from whoever is Tory spokesman on election night. (Who gets that gig by the way? Tricky one.)

Sounds like it has to be Gavin Williamson.

wooliedyed said:

Heathener said:

Just realised that R&W which dropped is a 10,000 sample size.

All their GE Monday polls have been

Ya

Heathener said:

Leon said:

Andy_JS said:

Leon said:

Why is no one mentioning that London now has the climate of Anchorage, Alaska? Except Anchorage gets more sun

Anchorage:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5879400

London:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743

The weather's compensating for the heatwave of 2022.

Thank fuck I have escaped 90% of it, but I do feel for my fam and friends back home

Cool. You could leave pb.com to the General Election then. Just a thought.

lol. You are full of caprice, make your mind up

Relatedly I can announce that my older daughter has got a job counting votes in the GE in Finchley! She is very excited. Fifteen quid an hour, bless

Heathener said:

Leon said:

Andy_JS said:

Leon said:

Why is no one mentioning that London now has the climate of Anchorage, Alaska? Except Anchorage gets more sun

Anchorage:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5879400

London:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743

The weather's compensating for the heatwave of 2022.

Thank fuck I have escaped 90% of it, but I do feel for my fam and friends back home

Cool. You could leave pb.com to the General Election then. Just a thought.

Reporting from just north of the lake district, it's been hailing hard this afternoon, so a pretty normal June after a warmish spell in May/June last year. Heating has been on. Hot water bottle last night.

Heathener said:

Leon said:

Anabobazina said:

Leon said:

Why is no one mentioning that London now has the climate of Anchorage, Alaska? Except Anchorage gets more sun

Anchorage:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5879400

London:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743

You are conflating climate and weather. AGAIN.

Be honest, how do you feel about the London weather of the last 1-2 years

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

The year has been ridiculously warm. This is called a cold spell, now give us a break.

You’re such a narcissist. You must hate it that you’re not the focus of everyone’s attention.

it’s been warm AT NIGHT and under very overcast conditions

Now go check the records for rain and sun. We have had the rainiest 18 months in history and SE England, whereof I speak, has been enduring seriously unusual dullness for 18 months or more

Is this climate change? I think it might be

Heathener said:

TheValiant said:

Heathener said:

Andy_JS said:

If I were in Labour's team I wouldn't be particularly happy with polls indicating a 300 seat majority, because the party always has a problem getting out the vote on election day when it looks like they're going to win easily. 2001 is a good example.

Desperate stuff Andy

I'm not sure it is. Labour do have a problem with 'we've won, why bother'. In fact, I think all parties have that problem.

2017 showed it in reverse. "Corbyn's lost and lost heavily - I can safely vote Labour because he's lost so much."

Well I feel you’re completely missing the mood then.

People are seething angry with the tories this time and they’re sure as heck going to vote them out.

In these circumstances, turnout will be down from 2016-19. That’s a given.

kle4 said:

Liberal Democrat Manifesto 2024 Part 5
Natural Environment

• Nature crisis. Sewage scandal.
  
• Water companies to be public benefit companies, replace Ofwat
  
• ‘Double nature’ by 2050
  
• 60 million trees a year
  
• Clean air act
  
• Sewage tax on water company profits
  
• Completing coastal path
  
• Human right to healthy environment
  
• Join European environment agency
  
• New developments have biodiversity net gain (note – people object even when this is the case now)
  
• ‘ambition’ of ending plastic waste exports by 2030 (note – so not planning to do it then)
  
• Restore peatlands, enhance temperate rainforest,
  

Food and Farming

• Against ultra processed foods. Farmers under pressure.
  
• National food strategy
  
• Restore woodland, peatland, and waterways
  
• Public money for public goods programmes
  
• Renegotiate Australia and New Zealand
  
• Ensure independent advice to farmers on new environmental farm payments scheme (Note – funded by government, so independent?)
  
• Animal welfare bill
  

Housing

• 380k homes per year, including 150k social homes, garden cities, community led development
  
• Ban no fault evictions, default 3 year tenancies, right to end right to buy
  
• Scrap vagrancy act
  
• Expand neighbourhood planning (note – this process is slow, expensive, and needs constant revision, how will expanding it help?)
  
• 10 new garden cities
  
• Properly fund planning departments (note – so…councils won’t fund their own planning departments, or will be subsidized? It says set their own fees, but by how much?)
  
• Encourage use of rural exception sites (note – locals hate these)
  
• Encourage development of brownfield (ntoe – oh FFS, everyone already tries this)
  
• This section seems like a load of nonsense.
  Communities and local government
  • Multi year settlements for local government (note – very useful, but will it happen?)
    
  • More control over second homes and short term lets
    
  • Powers to tackle climate emergency (note – fluff)
    
  • End top down reorganisation of councils and imposition of elected mayors (note – with you on the second, but the first is necessary to save money as unitaries only way for local government to survive)
    
  • ‘Decentralise decision making from whitehall and westminster’ (note – a load of old wank – every manifesto says this for all parties, it never happens in more than piecemeal fashion)
    
  • Invest in leisure centres and swimming pools (note – isn’t this a local government function, not central?)
    
  
  
  

when I see lists that long it tells me nothing is a priority.

Leon said:

Heathener said:

Leon said:

Andy_JS said:

Leon said:

Why is no one mentioning that London now has the climate of Anchorage, Alaska? Except Anchorage gets more sun

Anchorage:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5879400

London:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743

The weather's compensating for the heatwave of 2022.

Thank fuck I have escaped 90% of it, but I do feel for my fam and friends back home

Cool. You could leave pb.com to the General Election then. Just a thought.

lol. You are full of caprice, make your mind up

Relatedly I can announce that my older daughter has got a job counting votes in the GE in Finchley! She is very excited. Fifteen quid an hour, bless

I’ll pay £16 an hour if she only counts the “right” votes.

This is 2024 so I need to add the disclaimer that that is obvious joke and I would never seek to subvert democracy.

Sandpit said:

Andy_JS said:

Not surprised by this.

https://x.com/DegenRolf/status/1799446106083869142

"@DegenRolf

"Drivers of larger, heavier vehicles tend to drive more recklessly." https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11002-024-09733-7 A clear trend of shifting towards larger, heavier vehicles on roads fuels what has been described as an “arms race.”"

Tax cars by weight.

Sports car drivers rejoice.

Leon said:

Heathener said:

Leon said:

Anabobazina said:

Leon said:

Why is no one mentioning that London now has the climate of Anchorage, Alaska? Except Anchorage gets more sun

Anchorage:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5879400

London:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743

You are conflating climate and weather. AGAIN.

Be honest, how do you feel about the London weather of the last 1-2 years

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

The year has been ridiculously warm. This is called a cold spell, now give us a break.

You’re such a narcissist. You must hate it that you’re not the focus of everyone’s attention.

it’s been warm AT NIGHT and under very overcast conditions

Now go check the records for rain and sun. We have had the rainiest 18 months in history and SE England, whereof I speak, has been enduring seriously unusual dullness for 18 months or more

Is this climate change? I think it might be

It’s the transition from El Niño to La Niña shifting atmospheric angular momentum and the position of high and low pressures, combined with the warm Atlantic and general randomness and the Tory government. Im expecting an improvement in time for the election.

wooliedyed said:

https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1800199198354317476?s=19

Cleverley pulled out of an intvw last minute this pm. I think a manifesto rewrite/write in is underway

I assume they print very few these days, so that’s fairly easily done?

TheValiant said:

Heathener said:

TheValiant said:

Heathener said:

Andy_JS said:

If I were in Labour's team I wouldn't be particularly happy with polls indicating a 300 seat majority, because the party always has a problem getting out the vote on election day when it looks like they're going to win easily. 2001 is a good example.

Desperate stuff Andy

I'm not sure it is. Labour do have a problem with 'we've won, why bother'. In fact, I think all parties have that problem.

2017 showed it in reverse. "Corbyn's lost and lost heavily - I can safely vote Labour because he's lost so much."

Well I feel you’re completely missing the mood then.

People are seething angry with the tories this time and they’re sure as heck going to vote them out.

Oh no, I think Labour will win; but there are lazy people out there who will think, on the day, why bother.

Of course, all I can report from is Bootle.... and guess what? You wouldn't know there was an election on. Not a poster, not a leaflet, nothing.
Labour have won, so go campaign somewhere else.
Everyone else has lost, so go campaign somewhere else.
Our LD candidate is campaigning in Southport. They want to get second place back.

I'm in Cumbria, a key battleground as they say. All seats currently Tory (except Farron); all expected to go Labour (except Farron); massive boundary changes. Everyone should be fighting tooth and nail, as with special luck and a wind behind them the Tories might just keep a seat.

Here, Not a poster. Not a leaflet. Nothing. (Though I spotted a Labour group elsewhere in the county one afternoon).

Leon said:

algarkirk said:

PedestrianRock said:

Redfield into Electoral Calculus

LAB: 533
LD: 55
CON: 24
REF: 1
SNP: 13
GRN: 2
PC: 4

And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.

Hum. On Baxter's reckoning, South Holland has gone on those figures. Steve Barclay may just cling on, only by a whisker. I think the only other one left anyone has actually heard of is Gavin Williamson who more or less becomes leader of the rump, but not LOTO as the LDs are the HMLO. The Tories come ahead of the SNP. I look forward to hearing this last point emphasised from whoever is Tory spokesman on election night. (Who gets that gig by the way? Tricky one.)

IF this happens

A. It will be hilariously brilliant and

B. Farage will of course take over, the Tories will have no choice

You need to start getting suitably miserable about the coming hegemony of a man (SKS) who embodies everything you hate. I did it from Dec 19 to July 22. I didn't shirk it, pretending I was all cool about it. I turned to face the strain. Take a leaf.

I've read a lot of manifestos. One thing I am always wary of is when new bodies and posts are proposed. It is a good way of appearing to do something when either not doing much (if you don't really add any new funding or organisation), or promising way to much (if you don't add enough), or disguising a massive new cost (by not noting how much it would cost to make the body/group useful).

kle4 said:

Alanbrooke said:

kle4 said:

Liberal Democrat Manifesto 2024 Part 5
Natural Environment

• Nature crisis. Sewage scandal.
  
• Water companies to be public benefit companies, replace Ofwat
  
• ‘Double nature’ by 2050
  
• 60 million trees a year
  
• Clean air act
  
• Sewage tax on water company profits
  
• Completing coastal path
  
• Human right to healthy environment
  
• Join European environment agency
  
• New developments have biodiversity net gain (note – people object even when this is the case now)
  
• ‘ambition’ of ending plastic waste exports by 2030 (note – so not planning to do it then)
  
• Restore peatlands, enhance temperate rainforest,
  

Food and Farming

• Against ultra processed foods. Farmers under pressure.
  
• National food strategy
  
• Restore woodland, peatland, and waterways
  
• Public money for public goods programmes
  
• Renegotiate Australia and New Zealand
  
• Ensure independent advice to farmers on new environmental farm payments scheme (Note – funded by government, so independent?)
  
• Animal welfare bill
  

Housing

• 380k homes per year, including 150k social homes, garden cities, community led development
  
• Ban no fault evictions, default 3 year tenancies, right to end right to buy
  
• Scrap vagrancy act
  
• Expand neighbourhood planning (note – this process is slow, expensive, and needs constant revision, how will expanding it help?)
  
• 10 new garden cities
  
• Properly fund planning departments (note – so…councils won’t fund their own planning departments, or will be subsidized? It says set their own fees, but by how much?)
  
• Encourage use of rural exception sites (note – locals hate these)
  
• Encourage development of brownfield (ntoe – oh FFS, everyone already tries this)
  
• This section seems like a load of nonsense.
  Communities and local government
  • Multi year settlements for local government (note – very useful, but will it happen?)
    
  • More control over second homes and short term lets
    
  • Powers to tackle climate emergency (note – fluff)
    
  • End top down reorganisation of councils and imposition of elected mayors (note – with you on the second, but the first is necessary to save money as unitaries only way for local government to survive)
    
  • ‘Decentralise decision making from whitehall and westminster’ (note – a load of old wank – every manifesto says this for all parties, it never happens in more than piecemeal fashion)
    
  • Invest in leisure centres and swimming pools (note – isn’t this a local government function, not central?)
    

when I see lists that long it tells me nothing is a priority.

The manifesto is over long, with the standard mixture of vague fluff and oddly detailed sections, presumably as whoever was writing a particular section was able to persuade the higher ups to include their personal preferences.

yep, but most of that stuff should be in a local government leaflet not a national manifesto.

Sandpit said:

Andy_JS said:

Not surprised by this.

https://x.com/DegenRolf/status/1799446106083869142

"@DegenRolf

"Drivers of larger, heavier vehicles tend to drive more recklessly." https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11002-024-09733-7 A clear trend of shifting towards larger, heavier vehicles on roads fuels what has been described as an “arms race.”"

Tax cars by weight.

Absolutely agree, especially given the fourth power relationship between relative axle weight and mass. I.E: My little 1000kg Miata does sixteen times less damage to the road than a 2000kg vanity panzer.

I also detest SUVs. Triumph of marketing over substance. There's nothing a lard-arsed X5 can do that a 5-series can't, with the slight exception of a higher hip point (that can be resolved with good seat design).

TheValiant said:

Heathener said:

TheValiant said:

Heathener said:

Andy_JS said:

If I were in Labour's team I wouldn't be particularly happy with polls indicating a 300 seat majority, because the party always has a problem getting out the vote on election day when it looks like they're going to win easily. 2001 is a good example.

Desperate stuff Andy

I'm not sure it is. Labour do have a problem with 'we've won, why bother'. In fact, I think all parties have that problem.

2017 showed it in reverse. "Corbyn's lost and lost heavily - I can safely vote Labour because he's lost so much."

Well I feel you’re completely missing the mood then.

People are seething angry with the tories this time and they’re sure as heck going to vote them out.

Oh no, I think Labour will win; but there are lazy people out there who will think, on the day, why bother.

Of course, all I can report from is Bootle.... and guess what? You wouldn't know there was an election on. Not a poster, not a leaflet, nothing.
Labour have won, so go campaign somewhere else.
Everyone else has lost, so go campaign somewhere else.
Our LD candidate is campaigning in Southport. They want to get second place back.

Well, yes, similar in East Ham but what do you expect?

Stephen Timms is frantically hanging on to his 33,000 majority, his vote might collapse to 70% and all his activists have gone to....Chingford & Woodford Green, Havering, Hornchurch & Upminster? To be fair, we have two Council by-elections in Newham but neither is in East Ham.

I suspect Labour are fighting 200-250 constituencies properly and most of those will be prospective gains from the Conservatives. The Conservatives are probably defending a core 200 seats - the LDs are probably working 50, the Greens 5-10, Reform 3-5. If you aren't one of the "lucky" ones living in a marginal seat (though that will be redefined after July 4th), you won't get much electioneering.

algarkirk said:

TheValiant said:

Heathener said:

TheValiant said:

Heathener said:

Andy_JS said:

If I were in Labour's team I wouldn't be particularly happy with polls indicating a 300 seat majority, because the party always has a problem getting out the vote on election day when it looks like they're going to win easily. 2001 is a good example.

Desperate stuff Andy

I'm not sure it is. Labour do have a problem with 'we've won, why bother'. In fact, I think all parties have that problem.

2017 showed it in reverse. "Corbyn's lost and lost heavily - I can safely vote Labour because he's lost so much."

Well I feel you’re completely missing the mood then.

People are seething angry with the tories this time and they’re sure as heck going to vote them out.

Oh no, I think Labour will win; but there are lazy people out there who will think, on the day, why bother.

Of course, all I can report from is Bootle.... and guess what? You wouldn't know there was an election on. Not a poster, not a leaflet, nothing.
Labour have won, so go campaign somewhere else.
Everyone else has lost, so go campaign somewhere else.
Our LD candidate is campaigning in Southport. They want to get second place back.

I'm in Cumbria, a key battleground as they say. All seats currently Tory (except Farron); all expected to go Labour (except Farron); massive boundary changes. Everyone should be fighting tooth and nail, as with special luck and a wind behind them the Tories might just keep a seat.

Here, Not a poster. Not a leaflet. Nothing. (Though I spotted a Labour group elsewhere in the county one afternoon).

I'm currently staying in an exceptionally safe Tory seat. So far I've seen one Lib Dem and one Labour poster. Not exactly screaming "enthusiasm" to be honest.

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

algarkirk said:

PedestrianRock said:

Redfield into Electoral Calculus

LAB: 533
LD: 55
CON: 24
REF: 1
SNP: 13
GRN: 2
PC: 4

And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.

Hum. On Baxter's reckoning, South Holland has gone on those figures. Steve Barclay may just cling on, only by a whisker. I think the only other one left anyone has actually heard of is Gavin Williamson who more or less becomes leader of the rump, but not LOTO as the LDs are the HMLO. The Tories come ahead of the SNP. I look forward to hearing this last point emphasised from whoever is Tory spokesman on election night. (Who gets that gig by the way? Tricky one.)

IF this happens

A. It will be hilariously brilliant and

B. Farage will of course take over, the Tories will have no choice

You need to start getting suitably miserable about the coming hegemony of a man (SKS) who embodies everything you hate. I did it from Dec 19 to July 22. I didn't shirk it, pretending I was all cool about it. I turned to face the strain. Take a leaf.

nooo, I’m now quite detached from UK politics on an emotional level. I’ve basically emigrated

It’s now more intellectual and also familial. I have many people back home in Blighty, I want what’s best for them

But the visceral stuff I have left behind

stodge said:

TheValiant said:

Heathener said:

TheValiant said:

Heathener said:

Andy_JS said:

If I were in Labour's team I wouldn't be particularly happy with polls indicating a 300 seat majority, because the party always has a problem getting out the vote on election day when it looks like they're going to win easily. 2001 is a good example.

Desperate stuff Andy

I'm not sure it is. Labour do have a problem with 'we've won, why bother'. In fact, I think all parties have that problem.

2017 showed it in reverse. "Corbyn's lost and lost heavily - I can safely vote Labour because he's lost so much."

Well I feel you’re completely missing the mood then.

People are seething angry with the tories this time and they’re sure as heck going to vote them out.

Oh no, I think Labour will win; but there are lazy people out there who will think, on the day, why bother.

Of course, all I can report from is Bootle.... and guess what? You wouldn't know there was an election on. Not a poster, not a leaflet, nothing.
Labour have won, so go campaign somewhere else.
Everyone else has lost, so go campaign somewhere else.
Our LD candidate is campaigning in Southport. They want to get second place back.

Well, yes, similar in East Ham but what do you expect?

Stephen Timms is frantically hanging on to his 33,000 majority, his vote might collapse to 70% and all his activists have gone to....Chingford & Woodford Green, Havering, Hornchurch & Upminster? To be fair, we have two Council by-elections in Newham but neither is in East Ham.

I suspect Labour are fighting 200-250 constituencies properly and most of those will be prospective gains from the Conservatives. The Conservatives are probably defending a core 200 seats - the LDs are probably working 50, the Greens 5-10, Reform 3-5. If you aren't one of the "lucky" ones living in a marginal seat (though that will be redefined after July 4th), you won't get much electioneering.

But a few Tory targets from the SNP as consolation prizes?

I have been confused as well btw. I live in one of the recent by election losses and have not see a thing. In years gone by you’d have said “yeah but it’s an easily reclaimed Tory seat” but I’m not sure about that on this polling and with people seeing the alternative in action.

biggles said:

OnboardG1 said:

Sandpit said:

Andy_JS said:

Not surprised by this.

https://x.com/DegenRolf/status/1799446106083869142

"@DegenRolf

"Drivers of larger, heavier vehicles tend to drive more recklessly." https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11002-024-09733-7 A clear trend of shifting towards larger, heavier vehicles on roads fuels what has been described as an “arms race.”"

Tax cars by weight.

Absolutely agree, especially given the fourth power relationship between relative axle weight and mass. I.E: My little 1000kg Miata does sixteen times less damage to the road than a 2000kg vanity panzer.

I also detest SUVs. Triumph of marketing over substance. There's nothing a lard-arsed X5 can do that a 5-series can't, with the slight exception of a higher hip point (that can be resolved with good seat design).

And the move to pseudo SUVs (partly to get the batteries in) results in cars that aren’t as pretty. Saloons and small hatchbacks are dying.

Interestingly, that trend is pretty much a US/Euro-market phenomenon. If you look at a lot of the EVs being released in China, they're saloons because of the lower drag coefficient. Lower height = better aero so you need less batteries and your batteries get you further. Mazda are making an EV version of the 6 and it looks excellent. But it's china only because Euro/US markets have all fallen for this "Must be tall" nonsense.

biggles said:

stodge said:

TheValiant said:

Heathener said:

TheValiant said:

Heathener said:

Andy_JS said:

If I were in Labour's team I wouldn't be particularly happy with polls indicating a 300 seat majority, because the party always has a problem getting out the vote on election day when it looks like they're going to win easily. 2001 is a good example.

Desperate stuff Andy

I'm not sure it is. Labour do have a problem with 'we've won, why bother'. In fact, I think all parties have that problem.

2017 showed it in reverse. "Corbyn's lost and lost heavily - I can safely vote Labour because he's lost so much."

Well I feel you’re completely missing the mood then.

People are seething angry with the tories this time and they’re sure as heck going to vote them out.

Oh no, I think Labour will win; but there are lazy people out there who will think, on the day, why bother.

Of course, all I can report from is Bootle.... and guess what? You wouldn't know there was an election on. Not a poster, not a leaflet, nothing.
Labour have won, so go campaign somewhere else.
Everyone else has lost, so go campaign somewhere else.
Our LD candidate is campaigning in Southport. They want to get second place back.

Well, yes, similar in East Ham but what do you expect?

Stephen Timms is frantically hanging on to his 33,000 majority, his vote might collapse to 70% and all his activists have gone to....Chingford & Woodford Green, Havering, Hornchurch & Upminster? To be fair, we have two Council by-elections in Newham but neither is in East Ham.

I suspect Labour are fighting 200-250 constituencies properly and most of those will be prospective gains from the Conservatives. The Conservatives are probably defending a core 200 seats - the LDs are probably working 50, the Greens 5-10, Reform 3-5. If you aren't one of the "lucky" ones living in a marginal seat (though that will be redefined after July 4th), you won't get much electioneering.

But a few Tory targets from the SNP as consolation prizes?

I have been confused as well btw. I live in one of the recent by election losses and have not see a thing. In years gone by you’d have said “yeah but it’s an easily reclaimed Tory seat” but I’m not sure about that on this polling and with people seeing the alternative in action.

Norwich South still nothing. Sure an easy Clive Lewis hold but the Greens should be working this seat like buggery for second place and to lay more groundwork for taking the council. Its very odd.

nico679 said:

wooliedyed said:

nico679 said:

So the new Tory cash machine to pay for their NI cut is going to be cutting the welfare budget .

Election bribes paid for by essentially making life much harder for those on sickness or disability benefit.

Unqualified people making life changing decisions based on targets . Just so Sunak can wank on about tax cuts !

Woolie is unimpressed by the disabled nutsack booting

That’s an interesting way of putting it !

Third person referencing Woolie is an interesting fella

Leon said:

Heathener said:

Leon said:

Andy_JS said:

Leon said:

Why is no one mentioning that London now has the climate of Anchorage, Alaska? Except Anchorage gets more sun

Anchorage:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5879400

London:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743

The weather's compensating for the heatwave of 2022.

Thank fuck I have escaped 90% of it, but I do feel for my fam and friends back home

Cool. You could leave pb.com to the General Election then. Just a thought.

lol. You are full of caprice, make your mind up

Relatedly I can announce that my older daughter has got a job counting votes in the GE in Finchley! She is very excited. Fifteen quid an hour, bless

Finchley & Golders Green tends to be something of a late declarer on election night.

Declaration time:

2019 -> 5:05am
2017 -> 4:47am
2015 -> 5:13am
2010 -> 6:56am
2005 -> 3:51am.
2001 -> 2:14am.

TimS said:

OnboardG1 said:

algarkirk said:

TheValiant said:

Heathener said:

TheValiant said:

Heathener said:

Andy_JS said:

If I were in Labour's team I wouldn't be particularly happy with polls indicating a 300 seat majority, because the party always has a problem getting out the vote on election day when it looks like they're going to win easily. 2001 is a good example.

Desperate stuff Andy

I'm not sure it is. Labour do have a problem with 'we've won, why bother'. In fact, I think all parties have that problem.

2017 showed it in reverse. "Corbyn's lost and lost heavily - I can safely vote Labour because he's lost so much."

Well I feel you’re completely missing the mood then.

People are seething angry with the tories this time and they’re sure as heck going to vote them out.

Oh no, I think Labour will win; but there are lazy people out there who will think, on the day, why bother.

Of course, all I can report from is Bootle.... and guess what? You wouldn't know there was an election on. Not a poster, not a leaflet, nothing.
Labour have won, so go campaign somewhere else.
Everyone else has lost, so go campaign somewhere else.
Our LD candidate is campaigning in Southport. They want to get second place back.

I'm in Cumbria, a key battleground as they say. All seats currently Tory (except Farron); all expected to go Labour (except Farron); massive boundary changes. Everyone should be fighting tooth and nail, as with special luck and a wind behind them the Tories might just keep a seat.

Here, Not a poster. Not a leaflet. Nothing. (Though I spotted a Labour group elsewhere in the county one afternoon).

I'm currently staying in an exceptionally safe Tory seat. So far I've seen one Lib Dem and one Labour poster. Not exactly screaming "enthusiasm" to be honest.

To be fair I think the Conservative campaign is focused on social media aka boomer Facebook. Trad leafleting and canvassing probably a waste of time for them.

It’s not really. They’re frozen at the moment across FB, TikTok, and Insta.

Far outstripped by Labour.

Reform also running a savvy online campaign.

This is a sl different issue about number of followers but it’s an interesting piece @TimS :

https://news.sky.com/story/labour-attracts-largest-following-across-social-media-platforms-13148421

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

algarkirk said:

PedestrianRock said:

Redfield into Electoral Calculus

LAB: 533
LD: 55
CON: 24
REF: 1
SNP: 13
GRN: 2
PC: 4

And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.

Hum. On Baxter's reckoning, South Holland has gone on those figures. Steve Barclay may just cling on, only by a whisker. I think the only other one left anyone has actually heard of is Gavin Williamson who more or less becomes leader of the rump, but not LOTO as the LDs are the HMLO. The Tories come ahead of the SNP. I look forward to hearing this last point emphasised from whoever is Tory spokesman on election night. (Who gets that gig by the way? Tricky one.)

IF this happens

A. It will be hilariously brilliant and

B. Farage will of course take over, the Tories will have no choice

You need to start getting suitably miserable about the coming hegemony of a man (SKS) who embodies everything you hate. I did it from Dec 19 to July 22. I didn't shirk it, pretending I was all cool about it. I turned to face the strain. Take a leaf.

nooo, I’m now quite detached from UK politics on an emotional level. I’ve basically emigrated

It’s now more intellectual and also familial. I have many people back home in Blighty, I want what’s best for them

But the visceral stuff I have left behind

Post election analysis from Germany says young voters have ditched the Greens and headed off rightwards. Given 16 and 17 year olds could vote for the first time Starmer's wheeze may nor be as clever as he thinks.

RochdalePioneers said:

I know this is Political Betting and I post in here a lot, but I have just placed my first ever political bet.

Couldn’t resist myself at 66/1…

Well done but what a tease! What did you bet on?

wooliedyed said:

https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1800199198354317476?s=19

Cleverley pulled out of an intvw last minute this pm. I think a manifesto rewrite/write in is underway

Scrap IHT?

Heathener said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I know this is Political Betting and I post in here a lot, but I have just placed my first ever political bet.

Couldn’t resist myself at 66/1…

Well done but what a tease! What did you bet on?

They've told you!