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A Portillo moment for a new generation? – politicalbetting.com
A Portillo moment for a new generation? – politicalbetting.com
New Mail on Sunday poll shows Rishi Sunak on course to lose his own seat. https://t.co/j6mYjIb4hv
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Like the Tories if they are lucky.
1. Time Sunak starts his concession speech.
2. Last seat to declare and time.
3. First Cabinet minister to be defeated.
4. Galloway share of the vote.
5. Speaker share of the vote.
But I do wonder how much news of this fiasco will spread California-wards, and whether it might actually affect Sunak's long-touted tech-bro career post-10 Downing Street.
https://x.com/EuropeElects/status/1799798741333078374
Does there come a point where Sunak’s performance is so absurdly poor that Silicon Valley firms lose interest in his CV?
Would be funny AF if he lost. Yes yes, I know, zero chance of that sadly.
For example, the fact that Liz Truss wilted faster than that head of lettuce & etc., etc., etc. has not diminished her American cache as a former resident of No. 10 Downing Street. Even for those among us who do NOT know where or what that is. (Likely higher % than UKers who don't know where or what re: 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.)
@SkyNews
Media not 'allowed anywhere near' Sunak after 'farcical' D-Day fiasco
https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1799829008248619411
Slightly different re: No. 10 because nobody calls it the Prime Minister's House, or anything BUT the address.
ADDENDUM - might be fun IF the incoming PM had a parade on (US) or in (UK) Downing St.!
The most interesting election since 1945 (insert different date if you like) will give way to a riveting next few months when we try to work out what Starmer's actual plan is.
Sunak is more likely to create something like the Clinton Foundation and become a major NGO power broker.
German exit polls in 10 minutes
EU elex are Eurovision for cis-het nerds
RS may be a crap PM and worse electioneer. BUT see zero evidence that he'll cut & run.
Rishi Sunak ended up with a silver spoon in his mouth, but he's got some grit in his gizzard.
He doesn’t even have to go to Silicon Valley. Google deep mind is in london
Jeremy Hunt has vowed to do more to help those on six-figure salaries if the Tories win the general election - and he clings on to his own seat.
The Chancellor suggested, if he remains in charge of the Treasury beyond 4 July, he would be focused on removing 'cliff edges' for high earners in the tax system.
Mr Hunt pointed to how the Government's offer of free childcare for parents is not available if one of them is earning over £100,000.
....
'Around here the childcare reforms have been pretty popular,' the Chancellor said, as he spoke to the newspaper in Bramley, Surrey.
'But people also do raise the fact that one person earning over £100,000 means you don't get access to them and that creates a cliff edge.
'Because it was a big commitment we just couldn't afford to do more when I made the original announcement.
'But those are things I think we definitely want to make progress on, yes.'
He added: 'I've always said that if you want to be economically productive we have to get rid of the cliff edges in the tax system.
'The removal of the personal allowance, the fact that childcare support stops when one person in a household is earning over £100,000.
'If you speak to economists, they will say the most damaging things in the tax system are when you have things with a high marginal rate.
'So it is absolutely on our list as something we would like to do more on.'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13510505/Jeremy-Hunt-vows-help-six-figure-earners-Tories-win-general-election-Chancellor-survives-Portillo-moment-4-July.html
Compare this to the incessant foot-dragging over the victimisation of Carer's Allowance claimants who, earning, shall we say, somewhat less than £100,000, have found themselves falling over a cliff edge for earning about 56p too much and being ruthlessly pursued by Government-appointed debt collectors.
A good illustration of where Conservative priorities *appear* to lie - but it'll be fascinating to see which, if either, of these issues is deemed worthy of mention in the forthcoming manifesto.
Socialists lost voter trust on social justice
Conservatives (CDU) at lowest trust on economy
24% of voters have no confidence in any party
sounds familiar
They'd still be there - that mega wealth again - but it limits what you may be the face of.
Just look at Truss, and where she has had to shop herself.
Likely? Perhaps not - but a boy can still dream!
CDU 30%
SDP 14
AfD 17
Greens 12
CDU - 28.9%
Greens - 20.5%
SPD - 15.8%
AfD - 11.0%
Perhaps he should have Løkke where he go-e? (Hope the kid is ok.)
Except in the event of an extinction event most of them should make it, and that's before you factor in the chicken running.
Certainly he'll never lack for anything material, so that's good.
Asking for a psephologist friend! (Or is it a friendly psephologist? Naw - that's contradiction in terms!)
He's genuinely interested in technology and finance, and I'd fully expect him to pursue a career in that - not for the money (although there will be plenty of that) but for the success in a field he knows and has already had a good career in before Parliament.
Nonetheless it would be wise to smooth out the irregularities, so bring back the personal allowance for everyone and start the 45% band at £100 000 or so etc.
Ideally one that sets out national results for each MS.
He doesn’t need money so he won’t go back into straight finance - he will do this - and I don’t blame him. It’s THE area to be - especially for a tech savvy wonk - which is what he is
*However*, a few more MRPs showing it could be in reach, along with his status allowing by-election-levels of focus and tactical voting in a decapitation mission, mean it shouldn't be ruled out.
The one fly in the ointment may be ambiguity over tactical voting strategy, given the closeness for second last time - although Electoral Calculus now puts Lab clearly in second. May depend how the LDs play it.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/percentile-points-from-1-to-99-for-total-income-before-and-after-tax
£50000 gets you into the top 16%.
The East is still voting very different from the West. Big votes for AfD and BSW ( on 6% from nowhere )
Come on lads, suck it up we left!
My neighbour with the slightly different number has just dropped off the Political leaflets that have been delivered to the wrong address, because all the 20 or so houses in between look the other way.
So the Ashfield Independents are the only people who know where I live, and that is because they deliver umpteen of everything everywhere all the time by hand.
I can hide but I can't run. Bugger.
(I do get some btw.)
I'm not sure whether Richmond will come to see Sunak as an embarrassment or will be bloody minded in defence of their man. It's Yorkshire, so the latter is quite likely, though Sunak's affinity to Yorkshire is limited such that it probably doesn't extend beyond his constituency. I'd also be wondering if Southampton will swing less than other places.
Deltapoll and We Think have UNS of 19% from Conservative to Labour so that would stretch to 25% in some seats which would put Sunak at risk but like most others, I can't see it.
Laura Kuennsberg, who seems happy to die in the Tory ditch, keeps reminding me there are four weeks still to go - well, three and a half effectively. The next debate isn't until June 20th and while Claire Coutinho may want "weekly debates" we know this is a campaign ploy hoping Starmer will make some horrendous gaffe which they can exploit, not that the Prime Minister has done one of those recently...
Tomorrow, I imagine, we'll see any pulchritude of polls headed by Redfield & Wilton.
Finally, apologies for my error in the previous - the next question is, subject to the usual laws around slander and libel and the requirement to have an imprint, are there any restrictions on what you can put in an Election Address? If you wanted to promote your company's business, could you do so?
Are we meant to ignore it because you don’t like the rightwards drift?
Perhaps you’d prefer it if we also ignored the POTUS elex as well?
Looks like government parties have been hammered
Has been (or at least was) traditional over many years and in many places in USA, for lawyers to run for some office to promote their legal practice, in environment where they were banned by bar association rules from doing much if any advertising aside from being in the (old-school) telephone yellow pages or similar.
I think you missed your last dose of thorazine
They only care if people don’t return his calls (that’s why Cameron took up the FCDO job - to refresh his contacts and clean off the Greenswill).
Difficult to judge from the outside
It would be a bloody good deal for a free commercial delivery were that not the case - basically the cost of the £500 deposit for delivery a leaflet to every household in the constituency (or every individual if addressed). But that provision means the potential scam for a local business doesn't work.
FF and FG streaking ahead
https://www.rte.ie/news/