Ok, my intention was it would be one question per person, but things have proliferated a bit. So for now, I'll keep track of everything as best I can but I think we need to clear things up and edit things down a bit to make it manageable. Especially around the multi-part questions. Eg, I really like JackW's "smallest number of votes", but it's currently ambiguous and I don't like the "which seat" part of it. Generally, I'd like the questions to be numerical so "how many seats..." good but "which seat..." less good.
I'll keep compiling for now, midnight the cutoff for new questions. Then I'll edit them down and iron out ambiguities. I won't rigidly stick to one question each, so keep suggesting
How many questions there should be? Nobody will want to answer 50. Is 25 too many?
I like your idea of keeping to numerical questions, though someone else might want to do a competition that is solely in terms of, "which seat..."
I think a dozen questions is a good size, though you could cheat a bit by making some questions apply to each party - so have a single question on number of lost deposits with answers for each party.
Where I do agree with @Jonathan is that Farage's comments about Sunak not "understanding our culture" is a pretty ugly and fairly blatant dogwhistle, and even if it's an accident - which I'm not sure it is - it indicates a concerning blindspot.
Yes, Sunak might blow up again - largely through naivete, not malice - but so can Farage and this sort of stuff explains why he so readily turns people off.
Don't go all in on a Tory wipeout just yet.
I never believed that Casino. I still believe the result will be close. Although the Conservatives are doing their damnedest to prove me wrong.
Farage can come out with the most outrageous shite and it won't move the dial down at all. Johnson was the same. Yesterday Johnson dog-whistled Starmer's Jewish credentials with wild abandon. Today it's Farage's turn to suggest Sunak left the D. Day event early because he's of Asian extraction. Both are vile, both should be called out. But they won't. Angela Rayner foolishly calls a Tory politician "scum" and everyone wanted her tarred and feathered.
Just realised Ukraine is to Russia what Ireland has been to England, right down to the Famine
This is an obvious set up for Crimea, Donbas ending up as part of Russia a la Northern Ireland. You'll have to be more subtle than that.
Not at all. That would have been the case if those regions hadn't voted to be part of an independent Ukraine in 1991. Northern Ireland did vote to remain part of the UK in the 1920s border poll.
Just realised Ukraine is to Russia what Ireland has been to England, right down to the Famine
That is the argument I used which managed to stop my Irish father-in-law from repeating all the pro-Russia bollocks he'd picked up off youtube. "Russia has as much right to Kharkiv as England has to Cork," was a bit of a risky gambit from an English son-in-law dependent on his Irish in-laws' hospitality, but it did the job.
Try telling him that if we are doing irredentism based on Empire, I’m running a list…
Eight runners go to post for the East Ham General Election Handicap for four year olds of all ages. The going remains good but with the odd soft patch.
Stephen Timms sits precariously on his wafer thin 33,000 majority though that will be reduced as we have a smaller constituency. He got 76.3% of the vote in 2019 down from 83.6% in 2017. I suspect he'll end up nearer 2019 than 2017 in vote share.
The Conservative candidate, one Maria Higson, seems to hail from the Hampshire/Berkshire border. The Conservative last time, Scott Pattenden, got 15.8% and I don't know if he's standing somewhere else but he did try for the Weald of Kent seat losing out to Katie Lam.
The Liberal Democrat is Dr Hillary Briffa who sits on the International Security Group for the Party and if it's the same person, is the Assistant Director of the Centre for Defence Studies at King's College.
Dan Oxley is the Reform candidate and I think he was involved in UKIP in the area in times past.
The Green is one Rosie Pearce while Tahir Mirza, former chair of East Ham Labour Party, is standing for the Newham Independents.
We have two other Independents on the ballot - Sathish Mohan Ramadoss who is the CEO of Inside Homes UK and is in the midst of an interesting planning application in Manor Park and Anand Kumar Sundar who runs a company in Plashet Road. Call me a bluff old cynic but for £10k deposit money they get a nice bit of free publicity via the election address.
£1,000 not £10,000!
Actually I thought it was still £500, but am obviously getting muddled or at least somewhat behind the times.
One solitary Labour poster in a window round here. Not mine. Nowt else. No leaflets, stalls, canvassers or owt.
Plenty of stalls here in Edinburgh - all selling knock-off Taylor Swift memorabilia. It’s been sequins central for the last couple of days.
I thought I might make it through life without ever really being aware of Taylor Swift, but this weekend has wrecked that.
She is a phenomenon
This article is fascinating on the economics of it
Her shows have also had a well-documented impact on local economies. Mastercard research showed a “Swift lift” in earnings for local businesses, with spending increasing 68 per cent at restaurants within 2.5 miles of the stadium, and 7 per cent for those within ten miles.
The inbound tourism also led to 47 per cent more spending at accommodation within 2.5 miles of the US stadiums, and 32 per cent within ten miles.
One solitary Labour poster in a window round here. Not mine. Nowt else. No leaflets, stalls, canvassers or owt.
Plenty of stalls here in Edinburgh - all selling knock-off Taylor Swift memorabilia. It’s been sequins central for the last couple of days.
I thought I might make it through life without ever really being aware of Taylor Swift, but this weekend has wrecked that.
She is a phenomenon
This article is fascinating on the economics of it
Her shows have also had a well-documented impact on local economies. Mastercard research showed a “Swift lift” in earnings for local businesses, with spending increasing 68 per cent at restaurants within 2.5 miles of the stadium, and 7 per cent for those within ten miles.
The inbound tourism also led to 47 per cent more spending at accommodation within 2.5 miles of the US stadiums, and 32 per cent within ten miles.
Where I do agree with @Jonathan is that Farage's comments about Sunak not "understanding our culture" is a pretty ugly and fairly blatant dogwhistle, and even if it's an accident - which I'm not sure it is - it indicates a concerning blindspot.
Yes, Sunak might blow up again - largely through naivete, not malice - but so can Farage and this sort of stuff explains why he so readily turns people off.
Don't go all in on a Tory wipeout just yet.
What you need to avoid a Tory wipeout is not just Farage saying something unacceptable to the public, that’s expected, but Starmer saying something unacceptable. That’s much more unlikely, but not impossible.
Where I do agree with @Jonathan is that Farage's comments about Sunak not "understanding our culture" is a pretty ugly and fairly blatant dogwhistle, and even if it's an accident - which I'm not sure it is - it indicates a concerning blindspot.
Yes, Sunak might blow up again - largely through naivete, not malice - but so can Farage and this sort of stuff explains why he so readily turns people off.
Don't go all in on a Tory wipeout just yet.
Are RefUK voters going to be bothered by dog whistling? Surely it is intended for their ears?
Though on the latter point, you are likely right. The Tories are having a dire time of it but some kind of terminal event still seems unlikely. A lot of their old codgers will still troop out to vote for them, however unenthusiastically. The Canada 93 precedent is so often remarked upon precisely because it was unique.
Eight runners go to post for the East Ham General Election Handicap for four year olds of all ages. The going remains good but with the odd soft patch.
Stephen Timms sits precariously on his wafer thin 33,000 majority though that will be reduced as we have a smaller constituency. He got 76.3% of the vote in 2019 down from 83.6% in 2017. I suspect he'll end up nearer 2019 than 2017 in vote share.
The Conservative candidate, one Maria Higson, seems to hail from the Hampshire/Berkshire border. The Conservative last time, Scott Pattenden, got 15.8% and I don't know if he's standing somewhere else but he did try for the Weald of Kent seat losing out to Katie Lam.
The Liberal Democrat is Dr Hillary Briffa who sits on the International Security Group for the Party and if it's the same person, is the Assistant Director of the Centre for Defence Studies at King's College.
Dan Oxley is the Reform candidate and I think he was involved in UKIP in the area in times past.
The Green is one Rosie Pearce while Tahir Mirza, former chair of East Ham Labour Party, is standing for the Newham Independents.
We have two other Independents on the ballot - Sathish Mohan Ramadoss who is the CEO of Inside Homes UK and is in the midst of an interesting planning application in Manor Park and Anand Kumar Sundar who runs a company in Plashet Road. Call me a bluff old cynic but for £10k deposit money they get a nice bit of free publicity via the election address.
£1,000 not £10,000!
Actually I thought it was still £500, but am obviously getting muddled or at least somewhat behind the times.
There is no mechanism in which Sunak can resign and somebody else take over.
Just think about it, the new leader would be in charge for five minutes and would inevitably lose. Nobody will take up that chalice.
There must be such a mechanism for the eventuality that a leader dies during the campaign.
If the PM dies during a campaign… I guess ask the Privy Council to find someone?
Cabinet are still in post and I suspect HMK would accept their agreed caretaker
The obvious choice is Cameron: he’s in the current Cabinet, he’s experienced at the job, and he isn’t directly involved in the election.
Oh indeed if such an event occured, Pudding face of Chipping Norton is your guy
I'm coming round to the thought that Cameron is possible even though impossible, insofar as he might be acceptable to the ambitious as he would not be a contender for post-election leader of the party because he will not be an MP. So maybe our ever-flexible constitution can be fudged for a couple of weeks. However, I expect in practice Rishi will stay and DPM Dowden take over as acting PM should the need arise.
Remember Cameron's 'shredded wheat' announcement? At the time people wondered how he would square the circle of serving a full second term but not seeking a third.
That plan would have worked because it's perfectly coherent to remain as PM while the new party leader fights an election campaign to seek their own mandate, but the other way round makes no sense. To parachute in Cameron without a clear idea of what role he would play in the party in the aftermath of the election would just create even more confusion and there's no point in actually making him Prime Minister for a few weeks.
Even I who predicted a Tory majority of 20 in Ben's competition can see jettisoning Sunak mid campaign bis insane. Better to keep him in the fridge and wheel him out for pre-pared events and stick Penny out against Starmer in the PM head to head.
Reports of a Ukrainian naval drone attack on a Russian ship near Yeysk in the Eastern Azov Sea. That's a journey of about 800km from the nearest Ukrainian-controlled coastline.
Russia's defeat in the Black and Azov Seas is almost total.
A Ukrainian warplane has for the first time fired a weapon that struck a target inside Russia, a Ukrainian military source said to Sky News. He added that a "Russian command node" was hit today in the area of Bilhorod.
Quite a lot of Russian air defence systems have been destroyed.
There is no mechanism in which Sunak can resign and somebody else take over.
Just think about it, the new leader would be in charge for five minutes and would inevitably lose. Nobody will take up that chalice.
There must be such a mechanism for the eventuality that a leader dies during the campaign.
If the PM dies during a campaign… I guess ask the Privy Council to find someone?
Cabinet are still in post and I suspect HMK would accept their agreed caretaker
The obvious choice is Cameron: he’s in the current Cabinet, he’s experienced at the job, and he isn’t directly involved in the election.
Oh indeed if such an event occured, Pudding face of Chipping Norton is your guy
I'm coming round to the thought that Cameron is possible even though impossible, insofar as he might be acceptable to the ambitious as he would not be a contender for post-election leader of the party because he will not be an MP. So maybe our ever-flexible constitution can be fudged for a couple of weeks. However, I expect in practice Rishi will stay and DPM Dowden take over as acting PM should the need arise.
Remember Cameron's 'shredded wheat' announcement? At the time people wondered how he would square the circle of serving a full second term but not seeking a third.
That plan would have worked because it's perfectly coherent to remain as PM while the new party leader fights an election campaign to seek their own mandate, but the other way round makes no sense. To parachute in Cameron without a clear idea of what role he would play in the party in the aftermath of the election would just create even more confusion and there's no point in actually making him Prime Minister for a few weeks.
Even I who predicted a Tory majority of 20 in Ben's competition can see jettisoning Sunak mid campaign bis insane. Better to keep him in the fridge and wheel him out for pre-pared events and stick Penny out against Starmer in the PM head to head.
Perhaps safer to put him in a freezer and literally wheel him out unthawed. With luck, no one would notice the difference. Except there would be fewer blunders.
Reports of a Ukrainian naval drone attack on a Russian ship near Yeysk in the Eastern Azov Sea. That's a journey of about 800km from the nearest Ukrainian-controlled coastline.
Russia's defeat in the Black and Azov Seas is almost total.
They have also declared that Russian Naval assets hiding in the breakaway "Republic of Abkhazia" are legitimate targets.
To lose a naval war to a country without a Navy is quite remarkable even by Russian Naval standards.
And this drone placing a Ukranian flag on a communications tower in Belgorod is just taking the piss.
A Ukrainian warplane has for the first time fired a weapon that struck a target inside Russia, a Ukrainian military source said to Sky News. He added that a "Russian command node" was hit today in the area of Bilhorod.
Quite a lot of Russian air defence systems have been destroyed.
A few months back, didn't our air forces 'expert' say that Ukraine had virtually no aircraft left?
I've decided to stick with numerical questions only due mostly to the scoring system I'm designing. So if anybody wants to pick up the mantle for the non-numerical questions, these are the ones I've collated and won't be using.
Which party: Wins Clacton?
When: Will the first Tory win be declared? Will the first seat declare?
Which seat: Will be the first declared a Conservative win? Will declare first? Will have the largest Conservative vote share? Will have the largest Labour vote share? Will have the largest Lib Dem vote share? Will have the largest Reform vote share? Will have the largest Green vote share?
I'll make it 20 questions in total, but some of them will be near clones, e.g. how many seats for Labour and how many seats for Conservative will be separate questions. More later, when I've narrowed it down from the 39 I currently have. Ideas still welcome for numerical questions though!
There is no mechanism in which Sunak can resign and somebody else take over.
Just think about it, the new leader would be in charge for five minutes and would inevitably lose. Nobody will take up that chalice.
There must be such a mechanism for the eventuality that a leader dies during the campaign.
If the PM dies during a campaign… I guess ask the Privy Council to find someone?
Cabinet are still in post and I suspect HMK would accept their agreed caretaker
The obvious choice is Cameron: he’s in the current Cabinet, he’s experienced at the job, and he isn’t directly involved in the election.
Oh indeed if such an event occured, Pudding face of Chipping Norton is your guy
I'm coming round to the thought that Cameron is possible even though impossible, insofar as he might be acceptable to the ambitious as he would not be a contender for post-election leader of the party because he will not be an MP. So maybe our ever-flexible constitution can be fudged for a couple of weeks. However, I expect in practice Rishi will stay and DPM Dowden take over as acting PM should the need arise.
Remember Cameron's 'shredded wheat' announcement? At the time people wondered how he would square the circle of serving a full second term but not seeking a third.
That plan would have worked because it's perfectly coherent to remain as PM while the new party leader fights an election campaign to seek their own mandate, but the other way round makes no sense. To parachute in Cameron without a clear idea of what role he would play in the party in the aftermath of the election would just create even more confusion and there's no point in actually making him Prime Minister for a few weeks.
Even I who predicted a Tory majority of 20 in Ben's competition can see jettisoning Sunak mid campaign bis insane. Better to keep him in the fridge and wheel him out for pre-pared events and stick Penny out against Starmer in the PM head to head.
Swapping PM mid-campaign is insane. But so is the way Sunak, and the wider party, have been behaving.
It's getting to the stage where I do wonder if they're deliberately throwing the election...
A Ukrainian warplane has for the first time fired a weapon that struck a target inside Russia, a Ukrainian military source said to Sky News. He added that a "Russian command node" was hit today in the area of Bilhorod.
Quite a lot of Russian air defence systems have been destroyed.
The struck an Su57 on the ground in a Russian base in North Ossetia too.
Where I do agree with @Jonathan is that Farage's comments about Sunak not "understanding our culture" is a pretty ugly and fairly blatant dogwhistle, and even if it's an accident - which I'm not sure it is - it indicates a concerning blindspot.
Yes, Sunak might blow up again - largely through naivete, not malice - but so can Farage and this sort of stuff explains why he so readily turns people off.
Don't go all in on a Tory wipeout just yet.
Are RefUK voters going to be bothered by dog whistling? Surely it is intended for their ears?
Though on the latter point, you are likely right. The Tories are having a dire time of it but some kind of terminal event still seems unlikely. A lot of their old codgers will still troop out to vote for them, however unenthusiastically. The Canada 93 precedent is so often remarked upon precisely because it was unique.
Local elections and by-elections suggest the Cons are at a low ebb but nowhere near extinction levels. I'm sticking by 150-200 seats, probably at the lower end of that. I would be genuinely astonished if they fell below 100. However...
The PM having to brief that he's not quitting half way through the GE campaign. These are strange days and Isaac Levido seems to have been slightly over-rated.
There is no mechanism in which Sunak can resign and somebody else take over.
Just think about it, the new leader would be in charge for five minutes and would inevitably lose. Nobody will take up that chalice.
There must be such a mechanism for the eventuality that a leader dies during the campaign.
If the PM dies during a campaign… I guess ask the Privy Council to find someone?
Cabinet are still in post and I suspect HMK would accept their agreed caretaker
The obvious choice is Cameron: he’s in the current Cabinet, he’s experienced at the job, and he isn’t directly involved in the election.
Oh indeed if such an event occured, Pudding face of Chipping Norton is your guy
I'm coming round to the thought that Cameron is possible even though impossible, insofar as he might be acceptable to the ambitious as he would not be a contender for post-election leader of the party because he will not be an MP. So maybe our ever-flexible constitution can be fudged for a couple of weeks. However, I expect in practice Rishi will stay and DPM Dowden take over as acting PM should the need arise.
Remember Cameron's 'shredded wheat' announcement? At the time people wondered how he would square the circle of serving a full second term but not seeking a third.
That plan would have worked because it's perfectly coherent to remain as PM while the new party leader fights an election campaign to seek their own mandate, but the other way round makes no sense. To parachute in Cameron without a clear idea of what role he would play in the party in the aftermath of the election would just create even more confusion and there's no point in actually making him Prime Minister for a few weeks.
Even I who predicted a Tory majority of 20 in Ben's competition can see jettisoning Sunak mid campaign bis insane. Better to keep him in the fridge and wheel him out for pre-pared events and stick Penny out against Starmer in the PM head to head.
Swapping PM mid-campaign is insane. But so is the way Sunak, and the wider party, have been behaving.
It's getting to the stage where I do wonder if they're deliberately throwing the election...
I have a plan, Starmer has no plan. My plan is a Baldrick-esque cunning plan.
There is no mechanism in which Sunak can resign and somebody else take over.
Just think about it, the new leader would be in charge for five minutes and would inevitably lose. Nobody will take up that chalice.
There must be such a mechanism for the eventuality that a leader dies during the campaign.
If the PM dies during a campaign… I guess ask the Privy Council to find someone?
Cabinet are still in post and I suspect HMK would accept their agreed caretaker
The obvious choice is Cameron: he’s in the current Cabinet, he’s experienced at the job, and he isn’t directly involved in the election.
Oh indeed if such an event occured, Pudding face of Chipping Norton is your guy
I'm coming round to the thought that Cameron is possible even though impossible, insofar as he might be acceptable to the ambitious as he would not be a contender for post-election leader of the party because he will not be an MP. So maybe our ever-flexible constitution can be fudged for a couple of weeks. However, I expect in practice Rishi will stay and DPM Dowden take over as acting PM should the need arise.
Remember Cameron's 'shredded wheat' announcement? At the time people wondered how he would square the circle of serving a full second term but not seeking a third.
That plan would have worked because it's perfectly coherent to remain as PM while the new party leader fights an election campaign to seek their own mandate, but the other way round makes no sense. To parachute in Cameron without a clear idea of what role he would play in the party in the aftermath of the election would just create even more confusion and there's no point in actually making him Prime Minister for a few weeks.
Even I who predicted a Tory majority of 20 in Ben's competition can see jettisoning Sunak mid campaign bis insane. Better to keep him in the fridge and wheel him out for pre-pared events and stick Penny out against Starmer in the PM head to head.
Swapping PM mid-campaign is insane. But so is the way Sunak, and the wider party, have been behaving.
It's getting to the stage where I do wonder if they're deliberately throwing the election...
You can see her lanyard. That’s a volunteer by the flags in Maidan Square. £10
Now you have to give me £10,010 if - WHEN - the Tories get zero seats
Awesome!
We can both be happy. Out of a silly PB bet the Ukrainian charity for newly disabled soldiers has gained £10
Unless, of course, I win the bet…
Leon you have now admitted after you visited the memorial at least 200, 000 ukrainian men have died in this war. Thats a minimum. How many more young ukrainian men are you prepared to see sacrificed to see off Russia.
20,000 soldiers and 180,000 citizens killed by Russian artillery and missiles is probably nearer the mark...
Yes , they are much better at murdering women and children than they are at winning battles. They could not beat a carpet.
The UK establishments response to any problem always falls into one of these 4 categories. Watch closely and you will see the truth of this.
1. Print more money. 2. More mass immigration. 3. More feminism. 4. More gay rights.
This is pretty dumb, mate 🙄🙄🙄
The last few have been pitiful, standard has gone through the floor. One or two of the earlier ones were quite clever. Now they all as thick as mince and they stick out like a sore thumb from the very first post.
That looks like it could easily be the final score, as long as Rishi stays in the fridge.
That would be lovely.
Worth remembering though that we're in week -4. This is not a replica of the 1997 GE of course but in that election the Labour lead halved between week -4 and election day. Something to keep Tory supporters peckers up maybe?
Just realised Ukraine is to Russia what Ireland has been to England, right down to the Famine
That is the argument I used which managed to stop my Irish father-in-law from repeating all the pro-Russia bollocks he'd picked up off youtube. "Russia has as much right to Kharkiv as England has to Cork," was a bit of a risky gambit from an English son-in-law dependent on his Irish in-laws' hospitality, but it did the job.
Where I do agree with @Jonathan is that Farage's comments about Sunak not "understanding our culture" is a pretty ugly and fairly blatant dogwhistle, and even if it's an accident - which I'm not sure it is - it indicates a concerning blindspot.
Yes, Sunak might blow up again - largely through naivete, not malice - but so can Farage and this sort of stuff explains why he so readily turns people off.
Don't go all in on a Tory wipeout just yet.
Are RefUK voters going to be bothered by dog whistling? Surely it is intended for their ears?
Though on the latter point, you are likely right. The Tories are having a dire time of it but some kind of terminal event still seems unlikely. A lot of their old codgers will still troop out to vote for them, however unenthusiastically. The Canada 93 precedent is so often remarked upon precisely because it was unique.
Local elections and by-elections suggest the Cons are at a low ebb but nowhere near extinction levels.
I'm going for 100-125, because whilst the above is true, things have gotten notably worse since then.
A Ukrainian warplane has for the first time fired a weapon that struck a target inside Russia, a Ukrainian military source said to Sky News. He added that a "Russian command node" was hit today in the area of Bilhorod.
Quite a lot of Russian air defence systems have been destroyed.
A few months back, didn't our air forces 'expert' say that Ukraine had virtually no aircraft left?
I've decided to stick with numerical questions only due mostly to the scoring system I'm designing. So if anybody wants to pick up the mantle for the non-numerical questions, these are the ones I've collated and won't be using.
Which party: Wins Clacton?
When: Will the first Tory win be declared? Will the first seat declare?
Which seat: Will be the first declared a Conservative win? Will declare first? Will have the largest Conservative vote share? Will have the largest Labour vote share? Will have the largest Lib Dem vote share? Will have the largest Reform vote share? Will have the largest Green vote share?
I'll make it 20 questions in total, but some of them will be near clones, e.g. how many seats for Labour and how many seats for Conservative will be separate questions. More later, when I've narrowed it down from the 39 I currently have. Ideas still welcome for numerical questions though!
Numerical questions:-
How many parties with at least 10 candidates will have changed leader between the election being called and polling day?
In how many seats will RefUK come second?
How many umbrellas will his daughters buy Rishi for Fathers Day next weekend?
Where I do agree with @Jonathan is that Farage's comments about Sunak not "understanding our culture" is a pretty ugly and fairly blatant dogwhistle, and even if it's an accident - which I'm not sure it is - it indicates a concerning blindspot.
Yes, Sunak might blow up again - largely through naivete, not malice - but so can Farage and this sort of stuff explains why he so readily turns people off.
Don't go all in on a Tory wipeout just yet.
Are RefUK voters going to be bothered by dog whistling? Surely it is intended for their ears?
Though on the latter point, you are likely right. The Tories are having a dire time of it but some kind of terminal event still seems unlikely. A lot of their old codgers will still troop out to vote for them, however unenthusiastically. The Canada 93 precedent is so often remarked upon precisely because it was unique.
Local elections and by-elections suggest the Cons are at a low ebb but nowhere near extinction levels. I'm sticking by 150-200 seats, probably at the lower end of that. I would be genuinely astonished if they fell below 100. However...
The PM having to brief that he's not quitting half way through the GE campaign. These are strange days and Isaac Levido seems to have been slightly over-rated.
I think though that the (relatively good!) performance of Tories in Local elections in May and in by-election is down to the public being angry with the national party, while mere annoyance with local party.
One solitary Labour poster in a window round here. Not mine. Nowt else. No leaflets, stalls, canvassers or owt.
Plenty of stalls here in Edinburgh - all selling knock-off Taylor Swift memorabilia. It’s been sequins central for the last couple of days.
I thought I might make it through life without ever really being aware of Taylor Swift, but this weekend has wrecked that.
She is a phenomenon
This article is fascinating on the economics of it
Her shows have also had a well-documented impact on local economies. Mastercard research showed a “Swift lift” in earnings for local businesses, with spending increasing 68 per cent at restaurants within 2.5 miles of the stadium, and 7 per cent for those within ten miles.
The inbound tourism also led to 47 per cent more spending at accommodation within 2.5 miles of the US stadiums, and 32 per cent within ten miles.
One solitary Labour poster in a window round here. Not mine. Nowt else. No leaflets, stalls, canvassers or owt.
Plenty of stalls here in Edinburgh - all selling knock-off Taylor Swift memorabilia. It’s been sequins central for the last couple of days.
I thought I might make it through life without ever really being aware of Taylor Swift, but this weekend has wrecked that.
She is a phenomenon
This article is fascinating on the economics of it
Her shows have also had a well-documented impact on local economies. Mastercard research showed a “Swift lift” in earnings for local businesses, with spending increasing 68 per cent at restaurants within 2.5 miles of the stadium, and 7 per cent for those within ten miles.
The inbound tourism also led to 47 per cent more spending at accommodation within 2.5 miles of the US stadiums, and 32 per cent within ten miles.
A Ukrainian warplane has for the first time fired a weapon that struck a target inside Russia, a Ukrainian military source said to Sky News. He added that a "Russian command node" was hit today in the area of Bilhorod.
Quite a lot of Russian air defence systems have been destroyed.
Just realised Ukraine is to Russia what Ireland has been to England, right down to the Famine
That is the argument I used which managed to stop my Irish father-in-law from repeating all the pro-Russia bollocks he'd picked up off youtube. "Russia has as much right to Kharkiv as England has to Cork," was a bit of a risky gambit from an English son-in-law dependent on his Irish in-laws' hospitality, but it did the job.
Same applies to Scotland
Oh indeed. England has no right to Scotland, but joyfully the peoples of England and Scotland are in a free Union by common consent.
That looks like it could easily be the final score, as long as Rishi stays in the fridge.
That would be lovely.
Worth remembering though that we're in week -4. This is not a replica of the 1997 GE of course but in that election the Labour lead halved between week -4 and election day. Something to keep Tory supporters peckers up maybe?
One solitary Labour poster in a window round here. Not mine. Nowt else. No leaflets, stalls, canvassers or owt.
Plenty of stalls here in Edinburgh - all selling knock-off Taylor Swift memorabilia. It’s been sequins central for the last couple of days.
I thought I might make it through life without ever really being aware of Taylor Swift, but this weekend has wrecked that.
She is a phenomenon
This article is fascinating on the economics of it
Her shows have also had a well-documented impact on local economies. Mastercard research showed a “Swift lift” in earnings for local businesses, with spending increasing 68 per cent at restaurants within 2.5 miles of the stadium, and 7 per cent for those within ten miles.
The inbound tourism also led to 47 per cent more spending at accommodation within 2.5 miles of the US stadiums, and 32 per cent within ten miles.
I know she charges huge prices, and is the biggest star in the World right now, but would the knock on impact be different to any other stadium gig?
Surely 50,000+ attending any event that attracts people from outside the area is going to see similar uplifts?
It used to be that artists did tours to promote album sales, but now the real money is in the gigs. In part it is that now consumerist aspiration is much more about buying experiences than buying physical objects. A weekend away to see Swift becomes conspicuous consumption and display.
One solitary Labour poster in a window round here. Not mine. Nowt else. No leaflets, stalls, canvassers or owt.
Plenty of stalls here in Edinburgh - all selling knock-off Taylor Swift memorabilia. It’s been sequins central for the last couple of days.
I thought I might make it through life without ever really being aware of Taylor Swift, but this weekend has wrecked that.
She is a phenomenon
This article is fascinating on the economics of it
Her shows have also had a well-documented impact on local economies. Mastercard research showed a “Swift lift” in earnings for local businesses, with spending increasing 68 per cent at restaurants within 2.5 miles of the stadium, and 7 per cent for those within ten miles.
The inbound tourism also led to 47 per cent more spending at accommodation within 2.5 miles of the US stadiums, and 32 per cent within ten miles.
I know she charges huge prices, and is the biggest star in the World right now, but would the knock on impact be different to any other stadium gig?
Surely 50,000+ attending any event that attracts people from outside the area is going to see similar uplifts?
It used to be that artists did tours to promote album sales, but now the real money is in the gigs. In part it is that now consumerist aspiration is much more about buying experiences than buying physical objects. A weekend away to see Swift becomes conspicuous consumption and display.
On that note, pre-pandemic she toured each album. There were 5 albums between this tour and the last one, so the show is really 3.5 hours long.
Just realised Ukraine is to Russia what Ireland has been to England, right down to the Famine
This is an obvious set up for Crimea, Donbas ending up as part of Russia a la Northern Ireland. You'll have to be more subtle than that.
Not at all. That would have been the case if those regions hadn't voted to be part of an independent Ukraine in 1991. Northern Ireland did vote to remain part of the UK in the 1920s border poll.
It's quite possible that Sinn Fein will lose their last seat in the EU Parliament now. Their support has fallen away massively, as they got on the wrong side of the Irish immigration argument.
There is no mechanism in which Sunak can resign and somebody else take over.
Just think about it, the new leader would be in charge for five minutes and would inevitably lose. Nobody will take up that chalice.
There must be such a mechanism for the eventuality that a leader dies during the campaign.
If the PM dies during a campaign… I guess ask the Privy Council to find someone?
Cabinet are still in post and I suspect HMK would accept their agreed caretaker
The obvious choice is Cameron: he’s in the current Cabinet, he’s experienced at the job, and he isn’t directly involved in the election.
Oh indeed if such an event occured, Pudding face of Chipping Norton is your guy
I'm coming round to the thought that Cameron is possible even though impossible, insofar as he might be acceptable to the ambitious as he would not be a contender for post-election leader of the party because he will not be an MP. So maybe our ever-flexible constitution can be fudged for a couple of weeks. However, I expect in practice Rishi will stay and DPM Dowden take over as acting PM should the need arise.
Remember Cameron's 'shredded wheat' announcement? At the time people wondered how he would square the circle of serving a full second term but not seeking a third.
That plan would have worked because it's perfectly coherent to remain as PM while the new party leader fights an election campaign to seek their own mandate, but the other way round makes no sense. To parachute in Cameron without a clear idea of what role he would play in the party in the aftermath of the election would just create even more confusion and there's no point in actually making him Prime Minister for a few weeks.
Even I who predicted a Tory majority of 20 in Ben's competition can see jettisoning Sunak mid campaign bis insane. Better to keep him in the fridge and wheel him out for pre-pared events and stick Penny out against Starmer in the PM head to head.
Swapping PM mid-campaign is insane. But so is the way Sunak, and the wider party, have been behaving.
It's getting to the stage where I do wonder if they're deliberately throwing the election...
There are several million centrists who generally vote for a moderate, competent centre right party (called the Conservatives) who are currently divided up between Tory, LD, DK, Won't Vote, and Lab. Even possibly a few are for Reform as a protest about the hypocrisy about migration. (Ie the Tories running two opposite policies for years when having exactly one policy is essential).
It is fairly necessary for political health in a FPTP system that there is a sane centre right party to gather around. There isn't one. I feel the Tories need to help themselves by losing so bigly to Labour that pretence is impossible. Impossible to say that one more heave will do; and impossible to say that Reform type right wing is the answer.
A Ukrainian warplane has for the first time fired a weapon that struck a target inside Russia, a Ukrainian military source said to Sky News. He added that a "Russian command node" was hit today in the area of Bilhorod.
Quite a lot of Russian air defence systems have been destroyed.
Any news of Ukrainian successes is very welcome, but we shouldn't get carried away. Russia is vast, full of disposable conscripts, has (if I understand the situation correctly) been producing ammunition far faster than the West can supply it to Ukraine, and has been making some territorial advances.
The outright defeat of Russia is obviously desirable, but I still think (and have done pretty much from the point that the attempt to seize Kyiv was successfully repulsed) that this is most likely to end in a frozen conflict. Russia in possession of its ill gotten gains and Ukraine armed to the teeth, with the two sides glowering at each other across a line of control. A little like the two Koreas, or India and Pakistan in Kashmir.
That looks like it could easily be the final score, as long as Rishi stays in the fridge.
That would be lovely.
Worth remembering though that we're in week -4. This is not a replica of the 1997 GE of course but in that election the Labour lead halved between week -4 and election day. Something to keep Tory supporters peckers up maybe?
Damn! Missed apostrophe there!
"Damn ! Missed apostrophe there!" might encourage people who wish to shoot them rather than restore them.
Presumably as per Edward VIII with partridge or Teddy Roosevelt with bears.
Just realised Ukraine is to Russia what Ireland has been to England, right down to the Famine
That is the argument I used which managed to stop my Irish father-in-law from repeating all the pro-Russia bollocks he'd picked up off youtube. "Russia has as much right to Kharkiv as England has to Cork," was a bit of a risky gambit from an English son-in-law dependent on his Irish in-laws' hospitality, but it did the job.
There are a lot of eerie parallels. Eg Russians have long looked down on the Ukrainians as a kind of inferior, stupid, peasanty version of Russians. And the Ukrainian language has been persecuted and the Ukrainian claim to greater antiquity than Russia itself is derided
Russia casually exploited Ukraine for its agricultural wealth. It also planted Russian settlements across Ukrainian soil - often very handsome. Georgian Dublin, anyone? The border is notoriously blurred and many Ukrainians live in Russia
One solitary Labour poster in a window round here. Not mine. Nowt else. No leaflets, stalls, canvassers or owt.
Plenty of stalls here in Edinburgh - all selling knock-off Taylor Swift memorabilia. It’s been sequins central for the last couple of days.
I thought I might make it through life without ever really being aware of Taylor Swift, but this weekend has wrecked that.
She is a phenomenon
This article is fascinating on the economics of it
Her shows have also had a well-documented impact on local economies. Mastercard research showed a “Swift lift” in earnings for local businesses, with spending increasing 68 per cent at restaurants within 2.5 miles of the stadium, and 7 per cent for those within ten miles.
The inbound tourism also led to 47 per cent more spending at accommodation within 2.5 miles of the US stadiums, and 32 per cent within ten miles.
I know she charges huge prices, and is the biggest star in the World right now, but would the knock on impact be different to any other stadium gig?
Surely 50,000+ attending any event that attracts people from outside the area is going to see similar uplifts?
It used to be that artists did tours to promote album sales, but now the real money is in the gigs. In part it is that now consumerist aspiration is much more about buying experiences than buying physical objects. A weekend away to see Swift becomes conspicuous consumption and display.
For the bigger artists, but a lot of artists lose money on tours. Unless you're selling a good proportion of mid-size and above venues (the 1500-2000+ range), then the economics is crazy.
But, with Swift, those 'impact' numbers don't seem unusually high to me. Whenever there's a stadium gig in Manchester, or United are playing - the events that attract non-locals - the hotel prices go through the roof, and restaurants are busier.
I definitely see that it might make touts, or dodgy merch sellers more money, and the cities she's visiting are making the most of the PR, but most Swifties won't be staying in two hotel rooms instead of one, or eating extra meals, so I'd expect that 'Swift lift' to be similar for most sell out Stadium tours.
That looks like it could easily be the final score, as long as Rishi stays in the fridge.
That would be lovely.
Worth remembering though that we're in week -4. This is not a replica of the 1997 GE of course but in that election the Labour lead halved between week -4 and election day. Something to keep Tory supporters peckers up maybe?
One solitary Labour poster in a window round here. Not mine. Nowt else. No leaflets, stalls, canvassers or owt.
Plenty of stalls here in Edinburgh - all selling knock-off Taylor Swift memorabilia. It’s been sequins central for the last couple of days.
Don't I know it. We can hear the caterwauling when we open our front door. And today dispatched two granddaughters into the throng
With a lot less make up and a decent dressmaker who knew the value of stylish simplicity (try the yellow dress in La La Land) and the sound turned off Miss Swift would be/is very good looking.
A Ukrainian warplane has for the first time fired a weapon that struck a target inside Russia, a Ukrainian military source said to Sky News. He added that a "Russian command node" was hit today in the area of Bilhorod.
Quite a lot of Russian air defence systems have been destroyed.
Any news of Ukrainian successes is very welcome, but we shouldn't get carried away. Russia is vast, full of disposable conscripts, has (if I understand the situation correctly) been producing ammunition far faster than the West can supply it to Ukraine, and has been making some territorial advances.
The outright defeat of Russia is obviously desirable, but I still think (and have done pretty much from the point that the attempt to seize Kyiv was successfully repulsed) that this is most likely to end in a frozen conflict. Russia in possession of its ill gotten gains and Ukraine armed to the teeth, with the two sides glowering at each other across a line of control. A little like the two Koreas, or India and Pakistan in Kashmir.
I met an old wise American here today. Some kind of religious charity dude - Jewish with Ukrainian roots
He was very pro Ukraine but he had reached the same forlorn conclusion. Neither side can “win” and it will end like Korea; a frozen armistice. it will likely be a long term disaster for Putin or his successors but he will be able to claim a sort of victory - crudely expanding Russia along the azov coast
Did the Tories have a big policy announcement overnight? If so, I missed it.
Though let’s be honest, it doesn’t make a blind bit of difference at this stage. They could come out with a universal owl policy and nobody would care.
Another interesting viewpoint I heard today. From a youngish Ukrainian man
He said that when the Russians first came they GENUINELY thought they would be greeted with open arms as liberators. They’d all been told Ukraine was run by Nazis and the locals were desperate for freedom
In the first couple of days the Russians barely shot anyone or anything and tried to be kind, but then they realised the Ukrainians were definitely resisting and fiercely so, and it’s at that point the Russians went mad and killed everything on sight - hence bucha etc
Just realised Ukraine is to Russia what Ireland has been to England, right down to the Famine
That is the argument I used which managed to stop my Irish father-in-law from repeating all the pro-Russia bollocks he'd picked up off youtube. "Russia has as much right to Kharkiv as England has to Cork," was a bit of a risky gambit from an English son-in-law dependent on his Irish in-laws' hospitality, but it did the job.
There are a lot of eerie parallels. Eg Russians have long looked down on the Ukrainians as a kind of inferior, stupid, peasanty version of Russians. And the Ukrainian language has been persecuted and the Ukrainian claim to greater antiquity than Russia itself is derided
Russia casually exploited Ukraine for its agricultural wealth. It also planted Russian settlements across Ukrainian soil - often very handsome. Georgian Dublin, anyone? The border is notoriously blurred and many Ukrainians live in Russia
And so on and so forth
I would agree.
But it is worth remembering that Britain still holds territory on the Island of Ireland, having partitioned it in light of the fact that the greater part of the populace there identified more with Britain than they did with the nascent Irish State.
1. Time Sunak starts his concession speech. 2. Last seat to declare and time. 3. First Cabinet minister to be defeated. 4. Galloway share of the vote. 5. Speaker share of the vote.
I've decided to stick with numerical questions only due mostly to the scoring system I'm designing. So if anybody wants to pick up the mantle for the non-numerical questions, these are the ones I've collated and won't be using.
Which party: Wins Clacton?
When: Will the first Tory win be declared? Will the first seat declare?
Which seat: Will be the first declared a Conservative win? Will declare first? Will have the largest Conservative vote share? Will have the largest Labour vote share? Will have the largest Lib Dem vote share? Will have the largest Reform vote share? Will have the largest Green vote share?
I'll make it 20 questions in total, but some of them will be near clones, e.g. how many seats for Labour and how many seats for Conservative will be separate questions. More later, when I've narrowed it down from the 39 I currently have. Ideas still welcome for numerical questions though!
Lowest number of votes for any candidate.
I remember when a Tory standing in the locals in County Durham got zero. Happy days.
Did the Tories have a big policy announcement overnight? If so, I missed it.
Though let’s be honest, it doesn’t make a blind bit of difference at this stage. They could come out with a universal owl policy and nobody would care.
Not even the owls.
Remove IHT. Free the very richest in society of their taxable burden and just watch the trickle down effect.
I've decided to stick with numerical questions only due mostly to the scoring system I'm designing. So if anybody wants to pick up the mantle for the non-numerical questions, these are the ones I've collated and won't be using.
Which party: Wins Clacton?
When: Will the first Tory win be declared? Will the first seat declare?
Which seat: Will be the first declared a Conservative win? Will declare first? Will have the largest Conservative vote share? Will have the largest Labour vote share? Will have the largest Lib Dem vote share? Will have the largest Reform vote share? Will have the largest Green vote share?
I'll make it 20 questions in total, but some of them will be near clones, e.g. how many seats for Labour and how many seats for Conservative will be separate questions. More later, when I've narrowed it down from the 39 I currently have. Ideas still welcome for numerical questions though!
Lowest number of votes for any candidate.
I remember when a Tory standing in the locals in County Durham got zero. Happy days.
There is no mechanism in which Sunak can resign and somebody else take over.
Just think about it, the new leader would be in charge for five minutes and would inevitably lose. Nobody will take up that chalice.
There must be such a mechanism for the eventuality that a leader dies during the campaign.
If the PM dies during a campaign… I guess ask the Privy Council to find someone?
Cabinet are still in post and I suspect HMK would accept their agreed caretaker
The obvious choice is Cameron: he’s in the current Cabinet, he’s experienced at the job, and he isn’t directly involved in the election.
Oh indeed if such an event occured, Pudding face of Chipping Norton is your guy
I'm coming round to the thought that Cameron is possible even though impossible, insofar as he might be acceptable to the ambitious as he would not be a contender for post-election leader of the party because he will not be an MP. So maybe our ever-flexible constitution can be fudged for a couple of weeks. However, I expect in practice Rishi will stay and DPM Dowden take over as acting PM should the need arise.
Remember Cameron's 'shredded wheat' announcement? At the time people wondered how he would square the circle of serving a full second term but not seeking a third.
That plan would have worked because it's perfectly coherent to remain as PM while the new party leader fights an election campaign to seek their own mandate, but the other way round makes no sense. To parachute in Cameron without a clear idea of what role he would play in the party in the aftermath of the election would just create even more confusion and there's no point in actually making him Prime Minister for a few weeks.
Even I who predicted a Tory majority of 20 in Ben's competition can see jettisoning Sunak mid campaign bis insane. Better to keep him in the fridge and wheel him out for pre-pared events and stick Penny out against Starmer in the PM head to head.
Swapping PM mid-campaign is insane. But so is the way Sunak, and the wider party, have been behaving.
It's getting to the stage where I do wonder if they're deliberately throwing the election...
There are several million centrists who generally vote for a moderate, competent centre right party (called the Conservatives) who are currently divided up between Tory, LD, DK, Won't Vote, and Lab. Even possibly a few are for Reform as a protest about the hypocrisy about migration. (Ie the Tories running two opposite policies for years when having exactly one policy is essential).
It is fairly necessary for political health in a FPTP system that there is a sane centre right party to gather around. There isn't one. I feel the Tories need to help themselves by losing so bigly to Labour that pretence is impossible. Impossible to say that one more heave will do; and impossible to say that Reform type right wing is the answer.
The membership will attribute a colossal defeat to not being right wing enough, and pick whichever of the final pair of leadership candidates is most like Farage. A massive lurch to the right is nailed on, unless whatever remains of the Parliamentary party is predominantly more traditional, and manages to thwart the activist base by advancing two moderate candidates to the member ballot.
A Ukrainian warplane has for the first time fired a weapon that struck a target inside Russia, a Ukrainian military source said to Sky News. He added that a "Russian command node" was hit today in the area of Bilhorod.
Quite a lot of Russian air defence systems have been destroyed.
Any news of Ukrainian successes is very welcome, but we shouldn't get carried away. Russia is vast, full of disposable conscripts, has (if I understand the situation correctly) been producing ammunition far faster than the West can supply it to Ukraine, and has been making some territorial advances.
The outright defeat of Russia is obviously desirable, but I still think (and have done pretty much from the point that the attempt to seize Kyiv was successfully repulsed) that this is most likely to end in a frozen conflict. Russia in possession of its ill gotten gains and Ukraine armed to the teeth, with the two sides glowering at each other across a line of control. A little like the two Koreas, or India and Pakistan in Kashmir.
I met an old wise American here today. Some kind of religious charity dude - Jewish with Ukrainian roots
He was very pro Ukraine but he had reached the same forlorn conclusion. Neither side can “win” and it will end like Korea; a frozen armistice. it will likely be a long term disaster for Putin or his successors but he will be able to claim a sort of victory - crudely expanding Russia along the azov coast
Essentially, if the US keeps supplying armaments, then Ukraine can hold on, and eventually Putin will settle for something like the above.
So Putin is holding on for a Trump victory, and Zelensky is holding on for a Biden one.
If Trump does win, Europe (including the UK) faces an critical choice. In theory it could step up and replace the US as chief armourer, but it would require something akin to the vaccination production race, and European treasures are kind of exhausted right now.
For Europe’s sake, we must hope for a Trump loss this year.
Ok, my intention was it would be one question per person, but things have proliferated a bit. So for now, I'll keep track of everything as best I can but I think we need to clear things up and edit things down a bit to make it manageable. Especially around the multi-part questions. Eg, I really like JackW's "smallest number of votes", but it's currently ambiguous and I don't like the "which seat" part of it. Generally, I'd like the questions to be numerical so "how many seats..." good but "which seat..." less good.
I'll keep compiling for now, midnight the cutoff for new questions. Then I'll edit them down and iron out ambiguities. I won't rigidly stick to one question each, so keep suggesting
How many questions there should be? Nobody will want to answer 50. Is 25 too many?
So far:
Farooq: How many Reform > Con seats? eek: time of first Tory win (based on the time the words - and XYZ (the Tory candidate) is the winner) Stuartinromford: First seat to declare a Conservative win. IanB2: in how many seats will Labour come third (or lower) SandyRentool: Narrowest winning vote margin in any constituency SandyRentool: Widest winning vote margin in any constituency Ghedebrav: Number of party leaders standing who win a seat TimS: Largest seat majority to be overturned LostPassword: Number of Conservative lost deposits would be my question. londonpubman: Number of Lib Dem lost deposits would be my question. londonpubman: Number of Labour lost deposits would be my question. londonpubman: Number of Reform lost deposits would be my question. Verulamius: Number of isolated constituencies Heathener: Party vote shares Heathener: Party seats Heathener: Clacton winner dixiedean: which constituency will have the largest Con vote share? dixiedean: which constituency will have the largest Lab vote share? dixiedean: which constituency will have the largest Lib vote share? dixiedean: which constituency will have the largest Ref vote share? dixiedean: which constituency will have the largest Grn vote share? dixiedean: seats per party in NI Chameleon: lowest winning percentage, and which seat will it be, and who wins it? Muesli: party leaderssorry, I'm not going to include longer-term predictions that span through to the end of the year. Feel free to find a different question, but make it something that will be definitively answered within a reasonable time, say 1 week, after the GE. I'm hoping most questions will be answered within 24 hours of the close of polls. bondegezou: Number of political parties *elected* in the new Parliament (I'm assuming here that if, say three true independents are elected, that will count as ONE, not three) whether or not they take their seats. TimS: seats taken from third place (I'm going to suggest that this should be from third OR LOWER) JackW: First to declare and what time. JackW: Smallest number of votes and which seat. JackW: Exit poll numbers. Fairliered: Smallest margin between 1st and 3rd. Smallest margin between 1st and 4th.
SSI:
Q1 - How many CUP election broadcasts will feature Harry and Meghan as Duke and Duchess of Woke?
Q2: - How long after the GE (in months? weeks? days?) will Rishi Sunak take the Chiltern Hundreds/ Manor of Northstead and head to join (in manner of speaking) Harry & Meghan in SoCali?
I've decided to stick with numerical questions only due mostly to the scoring system I'm designing. So if anybody wants to pick up the mantle for the non-numerical questions, these are the ones I've collated and won't be using.
Which party: Wins Clacton?
When: Will the first Tory win be declared? Will the first seat declare?
Which seat: Will be the first declared a Conservative win? Will declare first? Will have the largest Conservative vote share? Will have the largest Labour vote share? Will have the largest Lib Dem vote share? Will have the largest Reform vote share? Will have the largest Green vote share?
I'll make it 20 questions in total, but some of them will be near clones, e.g. how many seats for Labour and how many seats for Conservative will be separate questions. More later, when I've narrowed it down from the 39 I currently have. Ideas still welcome for numerical questions though!
Lowest number of votes for any candidate.
I remember when a Tory standing in the locals in County Durham got zero. Happy days.
Reform majority in Clacton. If you think Farage will lose, enter a negative number.
A Ukrainian warplane has for the first time fired a weapon that struck a target inside Russia, a Ukrainian military source said to Sky News. He added that a "Russian command node" was hit today in the area of Bilhorod.
Quite a lot of Russian air defence systems have been destroyed.
Any news of Ukrainian successes is very welcome, but we shouldn't get carried away. Russia is vast, full of disposable conscripts, has (if I understand the situation correctly) been producing ammunition far faster than the West can supply it to Ukraine, and has been making some territorial advances.
The outright defeat of Russia is obviously desirable, but I still think (and have done pretty much from the point that the attempt to seize Kyiv was successfully repulsed) that this is most likely to end in a frozen conflict. Russia in possession of its ill gotten gains and Ukraine armed to the teeth, with the two sides glowering at each other across a line of control. A little like the two Koreas, or India and Pakistan in Kashmir.
I met an old wise American here today. Some kind of religious charity dude - Jewish with Ukrainian roots
He was very pro Ukraine but he had reached the same forlorn conclusion. Neither side can “win” and it will end like Korea; a frozen armistice. it will likely be a long term disaster for Putin or his successors but he will be able to claim a sort of victory - crudely expanding Russia along the azov coast
Essentially, if the US keeps supplying armaments, then Ukraine can hold on, and eventually Putin will settle for something like the above.
So Putin is holding on for a Trump victory, and Zelensky is holding on for a Biden one.
If Trump does win, Europe (including the UK) faces an critical choice. In theory it could step up and replace the US as chief armourer, but it would require something akin to the vaccination production race, and European treasures are kind of exhausted right now.
For Europe’s sake, we must hope for a Trump loss this year.
Reports of a Ukrainian naval drone attack on a Russian ship near Yeysk in the Eastern Azov Sea. That's a journey of about 800km from the nearest Ukrainian-controlled coastline.
Russia's defeat in the Black and Azov Seas is almost total.
They have also declared that Russian Naval assets hiding in the breakaway "Republic of Abkhazia" are legitimate targets.
To lose a naval war to a country without a Navy is quite remarkable even by Russian Naval standards.
And this drone placing a Ukranian flag on a communications tower in Belgorod is just taking the piss.
I've decided to stick with numerical questions only due mostly to the scoring system I'm designing. So if anybody wants to pick up the mantle for the non-numerical questions, these are the ones I've collated and won't be using.
Which party: Wins Clacton?
When: Will the first Tory win be declared? Will the first seat declare?
Which seat: Will be the first declared a Conservative win? Will declare first? Will have the largest Conservative vote share? Will have the largest Labour vote share? Will have the largest Lib Dem vote share? Will have the largest Reform vote share? Will have the largest Green vote share?
I'll make it 20 questions in total, but some of them will be near clones, e.g. how many seats for Labour and how many seats for Conservative will be separate questions. More later, when I've narrowed it down from the 39 I currently have. Ideas still welcome for numerical questions though!
Lowest number of votes for any candidate.
I remember when a Tory standing in the locals in County Durham got zero. Happy days.
AI Summary The two discussed the different categories of UK voters identified by the National Center for Social Research. These categories include well-off traditionalists, urban progressives, soft left liberals, left-behind patriots, apolitical centrists, and left-wing economically inclined voters. The Conservative Party has the well-off traditionalists firmly in their support base, while the Labour Party dominates the urban progressive and soft left liberal groups. The apolitical centrists and left-wing economically inclined voters are more politically divided. The text highlights the importance of political parties understanding which groups they have in their support base and which groups are up for grabs. It also emphasizes the need for parties to provide a clear sense of direction and a broad synoptic message to engage voters. Matt concluded by encouraging readers to explore the National Center for Social Research's website to identify which group they belong to.
The Tories will put benefit reforms at the heart of their election campaign on Sunday as Rishi Sunak seeks to turn things around following a difficult week
There are votes to be had from Reform for performative cruelty.
Who now expects them to be in government on July 5th?
Hence the random policies and promises will get more ludicrous and uncosted. All paid for by imaginary efficiency savings once more I expect.
There's always been scope for Welfare reform, but the obvious retort is "why didn't you do something about it in the last Parliament?".
How much more can they squeeze out of the tax avoidance genie . One thing I’m surprised about is that the latest briefings suggest they’re not going to touch IHT .
This was surely the final Hail Mary . Maybe it might still happen . Or maybe Sunak saving his kids hundreds of millions of pounds wasn’t a good look .
And how much more can Labour squeeze out of the tax avoidance genie? Enough for tens of thousand more NHS appointments? Leave it out...
Those appointments aren’t coming out of the tax avoidance cash machine . I’m sure however that it will do some heavy lifting in other areas.
You think "ending non-dom status" is not part of the tax avoidance regime? And you think it is going to be tax positive? Really? You aren't normlly that naive.
The first obvious sign we have a Labour government will be the flight of capital out of the UK. No doubt lefties will cheer on the departure.
Until they don't have the money to fund hospital beds.
I’m dubious of these tax avoidance savings but all parties think about is getting elected so as long as they can look like they’ve got somewhere to get the money from pre-election they’ll worry about the reality after 4th July . As for flight of capital I don’t see it .
On flight of capital.... If Labour has a big majority, you are going to have a mass of new backbench MPs all looking to get noticed. Some of them might have been councillors, but there will be a cohort who have effectively only known student politics. This "Eat the Rich!" cohort are going to be making noise about how the those with wealth need to pay "their fair share". Which is way more than those who have the wealth will want to pay - they are not going to see eye to eye on what is "fair".
And so within a year - and probably much sooner - there will have been a significant departure for those shores who have a better understanding of what is "fair". That money will not be paying stamp duty on new properties here, will not be paying VAT on their latest Bentley or Ferrari or super yacht.
And there will be a black hole that those muppets who thought they would give Labour a try will end up having to fund.
It depends what you mean by wealth taxes as only some wealth can be taken out of the country, other wealth can't.
If you mean taxing stocks and shares etc, then absolutely that's a bloody stupid idea and that will result in capital flight.
If you mean taxing land ownership and saying those who own a portion of this countries land need to pay a portion of this countries running costs (whether they be British or live abroad), then that's entirely possible and can't result in capital flight.
Oh yes it can. Land is a stock of capital because it has value. That value arises from its scarcity, we are not making any more of it, and the uses to which it can be put which can generate a return but it is also a reflection of demand.
At the moment much of our land, from Scottish estates to London flats is held by foreigners to whom we have sold it to finance our trade deficit. If we make it less attractive they may well sell up, collapsing the value of that land. The land is still here but it will be worth a lot less and those who finance their businesses through securities over it will be in breach of their banking covenants.
There really isn't anything like a free lunch.
As you say the land is still here and can still be used for productive use whether it be housing, farming, manufacturing, industrial, commercial, or any other use.
If our overvalued land becomes more affordable then that's a good thing too, meaning people can afford to invest in productive uses of that land.
Its not like capital flight where the products/businesses/wealth etc is extracted out of the country and moved somewhere else. The land remains here, if someone sells up land they're not using productively to someone else then that's a positive not a negative.
We need to tax something, better to tax land than to tax productivity (income). Rebalance our economy to be more productive, win/win.
It's quite possible that Sinn Fein will lose their last seat in the EU Parliament now. Their support has fallen away massively, as they got on the wrong side of the Irish immigration argument.
I know its not the same election, and I've not followed Irish politics in a while but that's quite a change then, last I saw it Sinn Fein were nearly at the same as FF and FG combined and looked like favourites to get the Taoiseach next election.
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I think a dozen questions is a good size, though you could cheat a bit by making some questions apply to each party - so have a single question on number of lost deposits with answers for each party.
Farage can come out with the most outrageous shite and it won't move the dial down at all. Johnson was the same. Yesterday Johnson dog-whistled Starmer's Jewish credentials with wild abandon. Today it's Farage's turn to suggest Sunak left the D. Day event early because he's of Asian extraction. Both are vile, both should be called out. But they won't. Angela Rayner foolishly calls a Tory politician "scum" and everyone wanted her tarred and feathered.
- Mersault
- Chablis
- Peebles
- St Lucia
- ?
Actually I thought it was still £500, but am obviously getting muddled or at least somewhat behind the times.
https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8rursn
Though on the latter point, you are likely right. The Tories are having a dire time of it but some kind of terminal event still seems unlikely. A lot of their old codgers will still troop out to vote for them, however unenthusiastically. The Canada 93 precedent is so often remarked upon precisely because it was unique.
https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/guidance-candidates-and-agents-uk-parliamentary-general-elections-great-britain/nominations/submitting-your-nomination-papers/deposit
https://x.com/mortenmorland/status/1794641259111600452
The Roller crashed on a level crossing last week and derailed a high speed train ...
Russia's defeat in the Black and Azov Seas is almost total.
https://news.sky.com/story/ukrainian-warplane-fires-weapon-at-target-inside-russia-for-first-time-13150251
A Ukrainian warplane has for the first time fired a weapon that struck a target inside Russia, a Ukrainian military source said to Sky News. He added that a "Russian command node" was hit today in the area of Bilhorod.
Quite a lot of Russian air defence systems have been destroyed.
To lose a naval war to a country without a Navy is quite remarkable even by Russian Naval standards.
And this drone placing a Ukranian flag on a communications tower in Belgorod is just taking the piss.
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1799785943064629558?t=VYYfBi2dbY4dFNwCU0IYjA&s=19
I've decided to stick with numerical questions only due mostly to the scoring system I'm designing. So if anybody wants to pick up the mantle for the non-numerical questions, these are the ones I've collated and won't be using.
Which party:
Wins Clacton?
When:
Will the first Tory win be declared?
Will the first seat declare?
Which seat:
Will be the first declared a Conservative win?
Will declare first?
Will have the largest Conservative vote share?
Will have the largest Labour vote share?
Will have the largest Lib Dem vote share?
Will have the largest Reform vote share?
Will have the largest Green vote share?
I'll make it 20 questions in total, but some of them will be near clones, e.g. how many seats for Labour and how many seats for Conservative will be separate questions. More later, when I've narrowed it down from the 39 I currently have. Ideas still welcome for numerical questions though!
It's getting to the stage where I do wonder if they're deliberately throwing the election...
https://x.com/DefenceU/status/1799723980615471273?t=X-qTWH9OuWAV-qnRd2Nukw&s=19
The PM having to brief that he's not quitting half way through the GE campaign. These are strange days and Isaac Levido seems to have been slightly over-rated.
Worth remembering though that we're in week -4. This is not a replica of the 1997 GE of course but in that election the Labour lead halved between week -4 and election day. Something to keep Tory supporters peckers up maybe?
Based on the spreads, this plan is working...
How many parties with at least 10 candidates will have changed leader between the election being called and polling day?
In how many seats will RefUK come second?
How many umbrellas will his daughters buy Rishi for Fathers Day next weekend?
Surely 50,000+ attending any event that attracts people from outside the area is going to see similar uplifts?
Taylorgating...
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/no-ticket-no-problem-swifties-soak-up-eras-atmosphere-b5vnwsbn6
So the numbers are even bigger than might otherwise be expected
Long Live Britain!
Expensive, but value for money (compared to some)
It is fairly necessary for political health in a FPTP system that there is a sane centre right party to gather around. There isn't one. I feel the Tories need to help themselves by losing so bigly to Labour that pretence is impossible. Impossible to say that one more heave will do; and impossible to say that Reform type right wing is the answer.
The outright defeat of Russia is obviously desirable, but I still think (and have done pretty much from the point that the attempt to seize Kyiv was successfully repulsed) that this is most likely to end in a frozen conflict. Russia in possession of its ill gotten gains and Ukraine armed to the teeth, with the two sides glowering at each other across a line of control. A little like the two Koreas, or India and Pakistan in Kashmir.
Presumably as per Edward VIII with partridge or Teddy Roosevelt with bears.
Russia casually exploited Ukraine for its agricultural wealth. It also planted Russian settlements across Ukrainian soil - often very handsome. Georgian Dublin, anyone? The border is notoriously blurred and many Ukrainians live in Russia
And so on and so forth
But, with Swift, those 'impact' numbers don't seem unusually high to me. Whenever there's a stadium gig in Manchester, or United are playing - the events that attract non-locals - the hotel prices go through the roof, and restaurants are busier.
I definitely see that it might make touts, or dodgy merch sellers more money, and the cities she's visiting are making the most of the PR, but most Swifties won't be staying in two hotel rooms instead of one, or eating extra meals, so I'd expect that 'Swift lift' to be similar for most sell out Stadium tours.
He was very pro Ukraine but he had reached the same forlorn conclusion. Neither side can “win” and it will end like Korea; a frozen armistice. it will likely be a long term disaster for Putin or his successors but he will be able to claim a sort of victory - crudely expanding Russia along the azov coast
Though let’s be honest, it doesn’t make a blind bit of difference at this stage. They could come out with a universal owl policy and nobody would care.
Not even the owls.
He said that when the Russians first came they GENUINELY thought they would be greeted with open arms as liberators. They’d all been told Ukraine was run by Nazis and the locals were desperate for freedom
In the first couple of days the Russians barely shot anyone or anything and tried to be kind, but then they realised the Ukrainians were definitely resisting and fiercely so, and it’s at that point the Russians went mad and killed everything on sight - hence bucha etc
NEW THREAD
But it is worth remembering that Britain still holds territory on the Island of Ireland, having partitioned it in light of the fact that the greater part of the populace there identified more with Britain than they did with the nascent Irish State.
1. Time Sunak starts his concession speech.
2. Last seat to declare and time.
3. First Cabinet minister to be defeated.
4. Galloway share of the vote.
5. Speaker share of the vote.
I remember when a Tory standing in the locals in County Durham got zero. Happy days.
So Putin is holding on for a Trump victory, and Zelensky is holding on for a Biden one.
If Trump does win, Europe (including the UK) faces an critical choice. In theory it could step up and replace the US as chief armourer, but it would require something akin to the vaccination production race, and European treasures are kind of exhausted right now.
For Europe’s sake, we must hope for a Trump loss this year.
Q1 - How many CUP election broadcasts will feature Harry and Meghan as Duke and Duchess of Woke?
Q2: - How long after the GE (in months? weeks? days?) will Rishi Sunak take the Chiltern Hundreds/ Manor of Northstead and head to join (in manner of speaking) Harry & Meghan in SoCali?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTYDgj84j2w
AI Summary
The two discussed the different categories of UK voters identified by the National Center for Social Research. These categories include well-off traditionalists, urban progressives, soft left liberals, left-behind patriots, apolitical centrists, and left-wing economically inclined voters. The Conservative Party has the well-off traditionalists firmly in their support base, while the Labour Party dominates the urban progressive and soft left liberal groups. The apolitical centrists and left-wing economically inclined voters are more politically divided. The text highlights the importance of political parties understanding which groups they have in their support base and which groups are up for grabs. It also emphasizes the need for parties to provide a clear sense of direction and a broad synoptic message to engage voters. Matt concluded by encouraging readers to explore the National Center for Social Research's website to identify which group they belong to.
https://ahrefs.com/writing-tools/summarizer
If our overvalued land becomes more affordable then that's a good thing too, meaning people can afford to invest in productive uses of that land.
Its not like capital flight where the products/businesses/wealth etc is extracted out of the country and moved somewhere else. The land remains here, if someone sells up land they're not using productively to someone else then that's a positive not a negative.
We need to tax something, better to tax land than to tax productivity (income). Rebalance our economy to be more productive, win/win.