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Being a convicted felon has consequences – politicalbetting.com
Being a convicted felon has consequences – politicalbetting.com
Do you think Donald Trump should or should not end his presidential campaign because of this verdict?Should 49%Should not 37%.@Ipsos/@ABC, 781 adults, 5/31-6/1https://t.co/35yFHwt4jd pic.twitter.com/oFDUpEV44U
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Ok Second - like Trump, I hope!!
But I suspect it won't be. The Republicans will find reasons to vote for him anyway - enough to save 15-20 states.
If Independents break strongly against him, however, he can kiss goodbye to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, possibly Ohio.
It certainly does make his path to victory more difficult.
That, of course, has a knock-on effect on his trials in Washington and Florida. If he loses again it's hard to see than keep being stalled unless the Supreme Court really does go mad an rule presidents have absolute immunity.
So unless another candidate gets significantly more than 20% of the vote I would say it's noise.
He also continues to lead in all the battleground states although the quantity of polling in some battleground states is much lower and these can be historic figures.
In short, so far, there is no evidence that the numbers who think he should stand down etc are affecting his polling. He is still a strong favourite, especially when you recall his advantage in the Electoral College is such that he can afford to lose by up to 4% in the popular vote and still win.
These are not the consequences that we were looking for.
1. Don't know we're in a GE campaign.
2. Don't know there are more than two political parties.
3. Don't know what seat they either where in, or are going to be in.
4. Don't know the winner of their seat.
5. Don't know who their MP is.
6. Don't know the voting system.
7. Don't know how our government works.
Excepting the last point, it might not be a majority of people but there are a lot of voting age people who really haven't a clue. Many of them might not vote, but I suspect a lot do (women especially out of a sense of duty). I presume they're completely confused when they turn up and see more than two names on the ballot paper before sticking to what they know and vote either Labour or Conservative.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/article/2024/may/31/nhs-patients-in-england-to-be-offered-trials-for-world-first-cancer-vaccine
Though as with all public/private partnerships, government needs to be a better negotiator on our own behalf.
For the next few years at least, the NHS offers unique benefits in terms of scale of patient population, and access to useful medical data.
We need to extract a good price for any such deals we do.
https://issuesinsights.com/2024/06/03/despite-court-guilty-verdict-trump-gains-on-biden-in-court-of-voter-opinion-ii-tipp-poll/
It will be interesting to see what polling looks like next weekend, these things usually take a few days to filter through.
So if she significantly outdoes those (or a write in does) I agree with you, he's in trouble. New Jersey might be fertile territory for her anyway and surely Trump will waltz Montana and South Dakota, but New Mexico could be one to watch.
I'd say it tips the scales just enough for Biden to clinch it, but boy oh boy will they be unhappy.
Across the MRPs, prominent prediction models and the median of regional poll projections over the last week, the 403 seats with the same implied result across the board. 342 are for Labour, just 37 unanimously Conservative. Not a prediction, just what the models agree upon.
Click the link for the map I'm not going to post it here.
As Trump sees his chances of the White House fading, could a cynic suggest the reason Farage has returned to the UK and decided to stand for Clacton is he sees his chances of a job in the Trump administration fading too?
If it changed what anyone thought about Trump's character or fitness for office they haven't been concentrating.
Americans are facing the same unedifying choice they were before the trial.
Trump was supposed to be unelectable before he stood.
Then he was supposed to be unelectable once accused.
Then he was supposed to be unelectable once indicted
Then he was supposed to be unelectable once on trial.
Then he was supposed to be unelectable once convicted.
Now he's supposed to be unelectable once sentenced.
After more than a year of this, few think he's a paragon of virtue. Some people think he's a blameless victim. Everybody else knows he's a crook, and a randy one at that, and either don't care because he gives them what they want (tax cuts, border walls, conservative judges) or think the other guy is worse. Or both.
Since the verdict Tipp has it Biden 41% Trump 41%, Ipsos Biden 39% Trump 37% and Kennedy 10% and Morning Consult Biden 43% Trump 44%.
However Trump had a clear lead in most polls before the verdict so that is still overall a swing to Biden
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
Lots of voters though still undecided clearly as neither candidate is over 45% let alone over 50% and Kennedy now polling in double digits. The debates and conventions will also be key.
Even I & I/Tipp still has Trump down with Independents from 33% to 31%, just more seem to be unsure than pro Biden
Two show Biden ahead by 1% and 2%, one shows Trump ahead by 1%, and one gives a tie.
That suggests only a marginal shift. And, the Electoral College favours Trump.
Blimey, is it that difficult to explain?
Thankfully the UK isn’t as polarized . For that reason Farage can do one , I hope Reform crash and burn even if that means Labour get a much smaller majority.
I pity the US - they are being asked to choose between two flavours of turd.
Starting with free prescriptions apparently!
This is why Farage is so dangerous - there are now a whole set of seats where a rejuventated Reform party will take enough votes from the Tory party that Labour will win the seat.
And worse for the Tory party is that given how bad their current polling is only Nostradamus could tell them where they need to focus their campaigning because no one knows if they are fighting to keep 50 seats or fighting to keep seats 160-200.
How there can be around 200 million eligible candidates, and yet the American people end up with Hobson’s choice between the same two idiots again?
I suspect if it wasn't Trump on the Republican ballot, the Republicans would be coasting into the White House..
If Biden is re elected and Kennedy gets the 10% or so now projected I suspect he makes Joe Kennedy III, his NI envoy, Secretary of State (Blinkin will step down as convention says SofS only does one term). Kennedy, Bobby Kennedy's grandson would then be in contention for 2028 and a better candidate than Harris.
If Trump loses Haley will certainly try again, albeit DeSantis is probably more likely as the GOP pick.
If Trump wins then his VP would of course be likely GOP nominee and Harris would not be an option having been on the defeated Democrat ticket this year
https://x.com/DUPleader/status/1797662088627994889/
Hillary's vote was huge on the coasts but poor in Middle America, Biden's vote much more efficient and higher in the rustbelt swing states
Both pretty unlikely to die. Less than 1% chance. Trump has a worse diet, but has never drunk or smoked and will have awesome healthcare.
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49606-first-yougov-mrp-of-2024-general-election-shows-labour-on-track-to-beat-1997-landslide
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGaeL22Pkps
(Their "Horse Outside" is just as good.)
I'm slightly younger with my 21st coinciding with the Tiananman Square Massacre.
Though yes he would likely have needed one of Wisconsin, Arizona or Georgia too
Maybe if Biden was up against a hypothetical dynamic, honest and competent alternative, the hypothetical alternative should win.
But he's not. He's up against Trump. Biden is the right guy and Trump is the wrong guy. Always has been. Pretending otherwise just serves Trump.
So was thinking about the second or rather eigth coming of the spiv messiah and its impact. From a betting perspective, particularly seats totals, the next 3 days are a key watch. Can Reform find the 130 or so candidates left to fill a GB slate? If not, how many of the unfilled are Tory seats with, let's say, 15-20% leads that may well stay blue with no Reform opposition? Is he going to ram paper only candidates in?
It might well be a factor in likely seat bands. DYOR
The POTUS elex are the Decline of the West, encapsulated
The boring centrists, and the angry populists are just selling different versions of snake oil.
But Biden is certainly preferable to Trump.
Draws fairly evenly as a % of their vote from Lab and Tory, as per other polling. My point yesterday was the core may prove harder to crack than the floaters /any change will do.
Awaiting polling with interest.
I’m reminded of the story of cricketer Ian Botham, who says he’s met many times more people who have told him they were at Headingly in 1981, when England beat Australia in an Ashes Test, than the small ground could possibly have held at the time.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election/winner
I am going to miss it for the next 10 days as I cycle along the banks of the Loire. 7 days cycling, 400+ km to go. I might post some pictures but I don't have a Jess the cat or a dog for scale.
Ed Davey taking a break from his outdoor activities holiday was on R4 this morning highlighting fpc as an LD manifesto commitment. Took a massive effort of will for him and Nick Robinson to refer to it already existing in Scotland.
Farage, when interviewed about UK politics obeys the rules of UK rhetoric and its primitive but significant laws of cause and effect, and regard, though minimal, for fact and so on. Within those rules it isn't possible to defend Trump, and no-one in serious UK politics does.
How would Farage go about it?
'One of my biggest fears in life is what happens to him when I'm gone.'
Speaking on @ITVTonight, Sir Ed Davey opened up about juggling responsibilities as Liberal Democrat leader and caring for his disabled teenage son @rachyoungeritv reports
https://x.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1797696954077712828
Might be a rare swing to Tories seat, but they aren't taking it of course!
Tan Dhesi not a popular MP with a goodly portion of the Labour group, 7 of them quitting the party over him, the Faiza Sheehan and other issues to go indy and leave the Tories by far largest party on the council.
Slough is weird, man
“Al-akhbar says the brits told the Lebanese the war will be mid-June. The brits are correct. The decision of the war has been taken already. If you live in the UK, I advise you to stock up on essentials as per government advise. We will definitely experience shortages here. Buy canned food and water. Buy some crypto too just in case. Also, I advise you not to travel to the region unless you have to. Reach out for specific advice.”
https://x.com/menaunleashed/status/1797897975756206144?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
I presume Farage's volte face yesterday was to enable him to have the national platform in the 7-way leaders debate later this month. I suspect if that debate hadn't been offered, he would have stayed out.
He gets a national platform though the fact neither Sunak nor Starmer will be debating the minor party leaders does devalue it a shade. Farage will obviously seek to dominate that debate and hope to confirm Reform in third place - that's far from obvious looking at some of the recent polls and given the inefficiency of the Reform vote (Farage is a fan of PR, who'd have thunk it?) 12% for Reform gets a lot less in terms of Parliamentary seats than 12% for the LDs.
Will he use the debate to make a bombshell "final offer" to the Conservatives? Seems implausible but the offer he could make might be for after the election. Pick a leader with whom I can "do business" (so to speak) and a merged party might be on the cards.
The alternative is he will rant in splendid isolation castigating everyone and everything with a large dollop of "I was right all along".He has sparkled in one on one debates but with six other party leaders he won't have the time to get going I suspect.
🔴 NEW: Labour will ban foie gras imports if they win the general election, the shadow environment secretary has announced
https://x.com/TelePolitics/status/1797907892743385443
https://api.drum.lib.umd.edu/server/api/core/bitstreams/42ff9430-717b-424d-ac0f-01b50701e9f3/content
It used to be that each side had its own opinions. Now, each side has its own facts.