https://x.com/DeanMThomson/status/1797902229602803970?s=19 Draws fairly evenly as a % of their vote from Lab and Tory, as per other polling. My point yesterday was the core may prove harder to crack than the floaters /any change will do. Awaiting polling with interest.
But that's Farage - other candidates won't have anything like the same voter profile.
No, but in general terms, if Reform take votes with Farage, where will they come from? It seems to be assumed the Tories, but they are already at the nutty core.
Where’s the polling evidence for this contention? Curtice argued contrarily on Newsnight last night, using data from the local elections.
I turn sixty today and start to get my hands on the goodies the two main parties shower the older voters with.
Starting with free prescriptions apparently!
Meh, prescriptions are already free in some parts of the country
Happy birthday!
I'm not sure of the full stats but I think 90% of prescriptions are free in England too. When you consider that by far and away the most prescriptions are for the elderly with many on at least six medications daily, and then add in diabetic patients, pregnant women and those who have given birth in the last year and so on, its not a surprise.
The fact that Biden is not miles ahead against this apology for a human being shows how god awful he is.
I pity the US - they are being asked to choose between two flavours of turd.
I don’t think it does. I think it shows how there is a section of the US media that will tell people Biden is that awful and Trump is great.
Yes, Biden has one big drawback, too old. His opponent shares that and has a hundred other larger negatives. I remain confident that when it comes to the actual binary choice the US will not make the catastrophically wrong one.
I turn sixty today and start to get my hands on the goodies the two main parties shower the older voters with.
Starting with free prescriptions apparently!
Meh, prescriptions are already free in some parts of the country
Happy birthday!
I'm not sure of the full stats but I think 90% of prescriptions are free in England too. When you consider that by far and away the most prescriptions are for the elderly with many on at least six medications daily, and then add in diabetic patients, pregnant women and those who have given birth in the last year and so on, its not a surprise.
Plus everyone who just ticks the “I get them free” box and isn’t checked up on. Plus the prepayment certificate means you won’t ever pay more than about £100 in total per year even if you pay.
Tories should put out ads saying they will keep foie gras, it could be a key issue in battlegrounds like Kensington and Chelsea and Fulham and Cities of London and Westminster.
https://x.com/DeanMThomson/status/1797902229602803970?s=19 Draws fairly evenly as a % of their vote from Lab and Tory, as per other polling. My point yesterday was the core may prove harder to crack than the floaters /any change will do. Awaiting polling with interest.
But that's Farage - other candidates won't have anything like the same voter profile.
No, but in general terms, if Reform take votes with Farage, where will they come from? It seems to be assumed the Tories, but they are already at the nutty core.
Where’s the polling evidence for this contention? Curtice argued contrarily on Newsnight last night, using data from the local elections.
The polling pre election from JL Partners had the return of Farage hypotheticals as drawing 4% evenly from Tory and Labour. I will happily admit I cannot read runes if Reform rise at more expense of the remaining Tories
I presume Farage's volte face yesterday was to enable him to have the national platform in the 7-way leaders debate later this month. I suspect if that debate hadn't been offered, he would have stayed out.
He gets a national platform though the fact neither Sunak nor Starmer will be debating the minor party leaders does devalue it a shade. Farage will obviously seek to dominate that debate and hope to confirm Reform in third place - that's far from obvious looking at some of the recent polls and given the inefficiency of the Reform vote (Farage is a fan of PR, who'd have thunk it?) 12% for Reform gets a lot less in terms of Parliamentary seats than 12% for the LDs.
Will he use the debate to make a bombshell "final offer" to the Conservatives? Seems implausible but the offer he could make might be for after the election. Pick a leader with whom I can "do business" (so to speak) and a merged party might be on the cards.
The alternative is he will rant in splendid isolation castigating everyone and everything with a large dollop of "I was right all along".He has sparkled in one on one debates but with six other party leaders he won't have the time to get going I suspect.
If Farage is planning, somehow, to announce during the seven way debate that has one last offer for standing down his Reform candidates, he will be too late I think.
The 7-way slugfest is 7th June in evening.
The deadline for nominations and withdrawals is 4pm on the afternoon.
I turn sixty today and start to get my hands on the goodies the two main parties shower the older voters with.
Starting with free prescriptions apparently!
Meh, prescriptions are already free in some parts of the country
Happy birthday!
And personal care as one hurtles towards decrepitude and oblivion. Hooray!
Free social care in Scotland just feels like some mythical nirvana to those of us in england who have had to navigate the mess here for our families.
Yep, sorry to joke about it. Having direct experience of organising it for a family member it’s not perfect by any means in Scotland but certainly massively better than not having it.
Ed Davey taking a break from his outdoor activities holiday was on R4 this morning highlighting fpc as an LD manifesto commitment. Took a massive effort of will for him and Nick Robinson to refer to it already existing in Scotland.
This is where devolution can benefit everyone in the UK. I think it's in Scotland's interest that areas like Greater Manchester, Northumbria or whatever get some autonomy so they can test out UBI, free public transport, massive tax cuts, XL Bully bans and so on, and we can copy them if it works.
Quite.
(a) Scotland goes its own way - PBUnionists "Devolution is a disaster! They're doing it deliberately!" (a) Scotland lets England, Wales, NI go first - PBUnionists "Devolution is a disaster! They're doing it deliberately!"
I turn sixty today and start to get my hands on the goodies the two main parties shower the older voters with.
Starting with free prescriptions apparently!
Meh, prescriptions are already free in some parts of the country
Happy birthday!
I'm not sure of the full stats but I think 90% of prescriptions are free in England too. When you consider that by far and away the most prescriptions are for the elderly with many on at least six medications daily, and then add in diabetic patients, pregnant women and those who have given birth in the last year and so on, its not a surprise.
Plus everyone who just ticks the “I get them free” box and isn’t checked up on. Plus the prepayment certificate means you won’t ever pay more than about £100 in total per year even if you pay.
I really wouldn't recommend ticking the I get them free box if you don't get them free - you will be caught as that area has now been automated...
A really weird rumour on TwiX. I would not repeat it but the guy appears to have *some* credibility. Maybe
“Al-akhbar says the brits told the Lebanese the war will be mid-June. The brits are correct. The decision of the war has been taken already. If you live in the UK, I advise you to stock up on essentials as per government advise. We will definitely experience shortages here. Buy canned food and water. Buy some crypto too just in case. Also, I advise you not to travel to the region unless you have to. Reach out for specific advice.”
Is there a clue in what you so helpfully quote that this might just be yet another crypto scam? I am thinking particularly of the sentence, Buy some crypto too just in case.
Although it is true that the government has told us to stockpile food and water!
The fact that Biden is not miles ahead against this apology for a human being shows how god awful he is.
I pity the US - they are being asked to choose between two flavours of turd.
The US is very much a place of haves and have nots - those have nots seem to trend Trump at the moment. And the last 4 years haven't been good for a lot of people with inflation being very obvious to them.
I suspect if it wasn't Trump on the Republican ballot, the Republicans would be coasting into the White House..
This is what is so annoying of the many annoying things about Trump. The USA - and the West - desperately needs a capable, clever, charismatic Republican president to rull back the Woke and unite us all in the coming struggle against ChiRussia. Instead the GOP and America offers us this warmed-over lunatic villain, fighting a Democrat who is actually a revived cadaver: AGAIN
The POTUS elex are the Decline of the West, encapsulated
That's the problem generally across the West.
The boring centrists, and the angry populists are just selling different versions of snake oil.
But Biden is certainly preferable to Trump.
Imagine how grateful we’d be for Bush II now.
Somewhat amazingly, given that he was first elected President 24 years ago, GWB is younger than both of this year’s contenders.
I turn sixty today and start to get my hands on the goodies the two main parties shower the older voters with.
Starting with free prescriptions apparently!
Meh, prescriptions are already free in some parts of the country
Happy birthday!
I'm not sure of the full stats but I think 90% of prescriptions are free in England too. When you consider that by far and away the most prescriptions are for the elderly with many on at least six medications daily, and then add in diabetic patients, pregnant women and those who have given birth in the last year and so on, its not a surprise.
...and children.
One wonders why they bother with the admin and paperwork. Slashed in Scotland, with ensuing savings on that side of the equation.
A friend of ours lives in England. She's middle-aged with several conditions but has to pay for prescriptions for them all. Not easy as she is not rich.
The fact that Biden is not miles ahead against this apology for a human being shows how god awful he is.
I pity the US - they are being asked to choose between two flavours of turd.
The US is very much a place of haves and have nots - those have nots seem to trend Trump at the moment. And the last 4 years haven't been good for a lot of people with inflation being very obvious to them.
I suspect if it wasn't Trump on the Republican ballot, the Republicans would be coasting into the White House..
This is what is so annoying of the many annoying things about Trump. The USA - and the West - desperately needs a capable, clever, charismatic Republican president to rull back the Woke and unite us all in the coming struggle against ChiRussia. Instead the GOP and America offers us this warmed-over lunatic villain, fighting a Democrat who is actually a revived cadaver: AGAIN
The POTUS elex are the Decline of the West, encapsulated
That's the problem generally across the West.
The boring centrists, and the angry populists are just selling different versions of snake oil.
But Biden is certainly preferable to Trump.
Imagine how grateful we’d be for Bush II now.
Somewhat amazingly, given that he was first elected President 24 years ago, GWB is younger than both of this year’s contenders.
Even better.
Bill Clinton was first elected thirty-two years ago and he's younger than both Biden and Trump.
Sir Ed Davey is the most human of the current party leaders.
'One of my biggest fears in life is what happens to him when I'm gone.'
Speaking on @ITVTonight, Sir Ed Davey opened up about juggling responsibilities as Liberal Democrat leader and caring for his disabled teenage son @rachyoungeritv reports
How the hell does he have the time? I find it a real struggle to find the time to both work and parent, and I work substantially fewer hours than Ed Davey and my job - on the two days a week or so I go to it - is only half an hour from my house.
I presume Farage's volte face yesterday was to enable him to have the national platform in the 7-way leaders debate later this month. I suspect if that debate hadn't been offered, he would have stayed out.
He gets a national platform though the fact neither Sunak nor Starmer will be debating the minor party leaders does devalue it a shade. Farage will obviously seek to dominate that debate and hope to confirm Reform in third place - that's far from obvious looking at some of the recent polls and given the inefficiency of the Reform vote (Farage is a fan of PR, who'd have thunk it?) 12% for Reform gets a lot less in terms of Parliamentary seats than 12% for the LDs.
Will he use the debate to make a bombshell "final offer" to the Conservatives? Seems implausible but the offer he could make might be for after the election. Pick a leader with whom I can "do business" (so to speak) and a merged party might be on the cards.
The alternative is he will rant in splendid isolation castigating everyone and everything with a large dollop of "I was right all along".He has sparkled in one on one debates but with six other party leaders he won't have the time to get going I suspect.
I think Penny and Ange will both emasculate the fatuous spiv and leave the bones for the cubs
Looking at the Indian elections: there seems to have been many more votes against the BJP than expected, which could be spelling the end of Modi's rule.
https://x.com/DeanMThomson/status/1797902229602803970?s=19 Draws fairly evenly as a % of their vote from Lab and Tory, as per other polling. My point yesterday was the core may prove harder to crack than the floaters /any change will do. Awaiting polling with interest.
But that's Farage - other candidates won't have anything like the same voter profile.
No, but in general terms, if Reform take votes with Farage, where will they come from? It seems to be assumed the Tories, but they are already at the nutty core.
Where’s the polling evidence for this contention? Curtice argued contrarily on Newsnight last night, using data from the local elections.
The polling pre election from JL Partners had the return of Farage hypotheticals as drawing 4% evenly from Tory and Labour. I will happily admit I cannot read runes if Reform rise at more expense of the remaining Tories
Tories should put out ads saying they will keep foie gras, it could be a key issue in battlegrounds like Kensington and Chelsea and Fulham and Cities of London and Westminster.
Difference between pate de foie, and pate de foie gras. Huge, ethically. You need to be clear as to which is which.
I turn sixty today and start to get my hands on the goodies the two main parties shower the older voters with.
Starting with free prescriptions apparently!
Meh, prescriptions are already free in some parts of the country
Happy birthday!
I'm not sure of the full stats but I think 90% of prescriptions are free in England too. When you consider that by far and away the most prescriptions are for the elderly with many on at least six medications daily, and then add in diabetic patients, pregnant women and those who have given birth in the last year and so on, its not a surprise.
...and children.
One wonders why they bother with the admin and paperwork. Slashed in Scotland, with ensuing savings on that side of the equation.
A friend of ours lives in England. She's middle-aged with several conditions but has to pay for prescriptions for them all. Not easy as she is not rich.
So she hopefully pays £114 only for her prepayment cert? Payable monthly if she wants? That’s the most anyone should ever pay.
Banning foie gras today, they'll ban fish and chips next.
I’m guessing they will be banning everything that is unethical and or dangerous from big engined cars to alcohol?
Otherwise someone might think they are going for an easy target that will have so little effect on the world but make them feel all warm and glowing inside.
I turn sixty today and start to get my hands on the goodies the two main parties shower the older voters with.
Starting with free prescriptions apparently!
Meh, prescriptions are already free in some parts of the country
Happy birthday!
I'm not sure of the full stats but I think 90% of prescriptions are free in England too. When you consider that by far and away the most prescriptions are for the elderly with many on at least six medications daily, and then add in diabetic patients, pregnant women and those who have given birth in the last year and so on, its not a surprise.
...and children.
One wonders why they bother with the admin and paperwork. Slashed in Scotland, with ensuing savings on that side of the equation.
A friend of ours lives in England. She's middle-aged with several conditions but has to pay for prescriptions for them all. Not easy as she is not rich.
I turn sixty today and start to get my hands on the goodies the two main parties shower the older voters with.
Starting with free prescriptions apparently!
Meh, prescriptions are already free in some parts of the country
Happy birthday!
I'm not sure of the full stats but I think 90% of prescriptions are free in England too. When you consider that by far and away the most prescriptions are for the elderly with many on at least six medications daily, and then add in diabetic patients, pregnant women and those who have given birth in the last year and so on, its not a surprise.
...and children.
One wonders why they bother with the admin and paperwork. Slashed in Scotland, with ensuing savings on that side of the equation.
A friend of ours lives in England. She's middle-aged with several conditions but has to pay for prescriptions for them all. Not easy as she is not rich.
So she hopefully pays £114 only for her prepayment cert? Payable monthly if she wants? That’s the most anyone should ever pay.
I turn sixty today and start to get my hands on the goodies the two main parties shower the older voters with.
Starting with free prescriptions apparently!
Meh, prescriptions are already free in some parts of the country
Happy birthday!
I'm not sure of the full stats but I think 90% of prescriptions are free in England too. When you consider that by far and away the most prescriptions are for the elderly with many on at least six medications daily, and then add in diabetic patients, pregnant women and those who have given birth in the last year and so on, its not a surprise.
Plus everyone who just ticks the “I get them free” box and isn’t checked up on. Plus the prepayment certificate means you won’t ever pay more than about £100 in total per year even if you pay.
I really wouldn't recommend ticking the I get them free box if you don't get them free - you will be caught as that area has now been automated...
The main purpose of "NHS business services" seems to be the persecution of pregnant women and new mums, and those with miscarriages who forget to tick the relevant box/form. Had a right run in with them last year, eventually we managed to talk to someone who wasn't an NPC... Here's a joyous story about them
Tories should put out ads saying they will keep foie gras, it could be a key issue in battlegrounds like Kensington and Chelsea and Fulham and Cities of London and Westminster.
Difference between pate de foie, and pate de foie gras. Huge, ethically. You need to be clear as to which is which.
The fact that Biden is not miles ahead against this apology for a human being shows how god awful he is.
I pity the US - they are being asked to choose between two flavours of turd.
The US is very much a place of haves and have nots - those have nots seem to trend Trump at the moment. And the last 4 years haven't been good for a lot of people with inflation being very obvious to them.
I suspect if it wasn't Trump on the Republican ballot, the Republicans would be coasting into the White House..
This is what is so annoying of the many annoying things about Trump. The USA - and the West - desperately needs a capable, clever, charismatic Republican president to rull back the Woke and unite us all in the coming struggle against ChiRussia. Instead the GOP and America offers us this warmed-over lunatic villain, fighting a Democrat who is actually a revived cadaver: AGAIN
The POTUS elex are the Decline of the West, encapsulated
That's the problem generally across the West.
The boring centrists, and the angry populists are just selling different versions of snake oil.
But Biden is certainly preferable to Trump.
Imagine how grateful we’d be for Bush II now.
Somewhat amazingly, given that he was first elected President 24 years ago, GWB is younger than both of this year’s contenders.
Even better.
Bill Clinton was first elected thirty-two years ago and he's younger than both Biden and Trump.
Ha true. It’s interesting that three future Presidents were born in three months in 1946. Trump June Bush II July Clinton August.
My favourite was Daisy Cooper and her gang on the boat behind Rishi Sunak. As I said yesterday we might not be going to win the election but we are having great fun not doing so and I have to say the local campaign I have been involved in has been a huge amount of fun with lots of laughs. The most enjoyable so far and I have been involved in a lot.
I am going to miss it for the next 10 days as I cycle along the banks of the Loire. 7 days cycling, 400+ km to go. I might post some pictures but I don't have a Jess the cat or a dog for scale.
The Loire is lovely. I did it upstream as far as Cosne Cours sur Loire a couple of years back. Easy to make good progress and also easy to get utterly diverted and stop off in every town along the way. Enjoy. https://cycle.travel/route/loire
https://x.com/DeanMThomson/status/1797902229602803970?s=19 Draws fairly evenly as a % of their vote from Lab and Tory, as per other polling. My point yesterday was the core may prove harder to crack than the floaters /any change will do. Awaiting polling with interest.
But that's Farage - other candidates won't have anything like the same voter profile.
No, but in general terms, if Reform take votes with Farage, where will they come from? It seems to be assumed the Tories, but they are already at the nutty core.
Where’s the polling evidence for this contention? Curtice argued contrarily on Newsnight last night, using data from the local elections.
The polling pre election from JL Partners had the return of Farage hypotheticals as drawing 4% evenly from Tory and Labour. I will happily admit I cannot read runes if Reform rise at more expense of the remaining Tories
In a specific seat, or nationally?
JL partners - Nationally. The Clacton specific hypotheticals were in the Survation poll in January.
The fact that Biden is not miles ahead against this apology for a human being shows how god awful he is.
I pity the US - they are being asked to choose between two flavours of turd.
I don’t think it does. I think it shows how there is a section of the US media that will tell people Biden is that awful and Trump is great.
Yes, Biden has one big drawback, too old. His opponent shares that and has a hundred other larger negatives. I remain confident that when it comes to the actual binary choice the US will not make the catastrophically wrong one.
Biden has dozens of big drawbacks, not just one. He can barely remember the name of the person he's talking to. He's been an awful president. And yet he's still not as bad as his opponent.
I turn sixty today and start to get my hands on the goodies the two main parties shower the older voters with.
Starting with free prescriptions apparently!
Meh, prescriptions are already free in some parts of the country
Happy birthday!
I'm not sure of the full stats but I think 90% of prescriptions are free in England too. When you consider that by far and away the most prescriptions are for the elderly with many on at least six medications daily, and then add in diabetic patients, pregnant women and those who have given birth in the last year and so on, its not a surprise.
...and children.
One wonders why they bother with the admin and paperwork. Slashed in Scotland, with ensuing savings on that side of the equation.
A friend of ours lives in England. She's middle-aged with several conditions but has to pay for prescriptions for them all. Not easy as she is not rich.
So she hopefully pays £114 only for her prepayment cert? Payable monthly if she wants? That’s the most anyone should ever pay.
Banning foie gras today, they'll ban fish and chips next.
I’m guessing they will be banning everything that is unethical and or dangerous from big engined cars to alcohol?
Otherwise someone might think they are going for an easy target that will have so little effect on the world but make them feel all warm and glowing inside.
"so little effect on the world" - one might feel that, but just consider if you were a goose. First people on PB discussing how to use your neck during a No. 2. Now this.
Banning foie gras today, they'll ban fish and chips next.
I’m guessing they will be banning everything that is unethical and or dangerous from big engined cars to alcohol?
Otherwise someone might think they are going for an easy target that will have so little effect on the world but make them feel all warm and glowing inside.
Yes. Because they can’t actually doing anything big and starmer has zero imagination and less spark Labour will be forced to do lots of tiny pointless annoying Woke things to satisfy the activist base
They could actually and easily be WORSE than the Tories. Just as economically inept and easily as bad on immigration, but with added layers of Woke nonsense
Happily I now spend most of my time outside Britain so fuck it
I turn sixty today and start to get my hands on the goodies the two main parties shower the older voters with.
Starting with free prescriptions apparently!
Meh, prescriptions are already free in some parts of the country
Happy birthday!
I'm not sure of the full stats but I think 90% of prescriptions are free in England too. When you consider that by far and away the most prescriptions are for the elderly with many on at least six medications daily, and then add in diabetic patients, pregnant women and those who have given birth in the last year and so on, its not a surprise.
...and children.
One wonders why they bother with the admin and paperwork. Slashed in Scotland, with ensuing savings on that side of the equation.
A friend of ours lives in England. She's middle-aged with several conditions but has to pay for prescriptions for them all. Not easy as she is not rich.
So she hopefully pays £114 only for her prepayment cert? Payable monthly if she wants? That’s the most anyone should ever pay.
Banning foie gras today, they'll ban fish and chips next.
I’m guessing they will be banning everything that is unethical and or dangerous from big engined cars to alcohol?
Otherwise someone might think they are going for an easy target that will have so little effect on the world but make them feel all warm and glowing inside.
Yes. Because they can’t actually doing anything big and starmer has zero imagination and less spark Labour will be forced to do lots of tiny pointless annoying Woke things to satisfy the activist base
They could actually and easily be WORSE than the Tories. Just as economically inept and easily as bad on immigration, but with added layers of Woke nonsense
Happily I now spend most of my time outside Britain so fuck it
It's been put out as a dead cat or rather goose to keep you happy and contented for days.
Banning foie gras today, they'll ban fish and chips next.
I’m guessing they will be banning everything that is unethical and or dangerous from big engined cars to alcohol?
Otherwise someone might think they are going for an easy target that will have so little effect on the world but make them feel all warm and glowing inside.
Yes. Because they can’t actually doing anything big and starmer has zero imagination and less spark Labour will be forced to do lots of tiny pointless annoying Woke things to satisfy the activist base
They could actually and easily be WORSE than the Tories. Just as economically inept and easily as bad on immigration, but with added layers of Woke nonsense
Happily I now spend most of my time outside Britain so fuck it
Why is banning foie gras "woke"? What about it fits the same framework of all the other things you call "woke"? The campaign to ban foie gras is older than the now common usage of "woke" in this way, so what was it before it was "woke"? Was it "loony left"? Was it "political correctness gone mad"?
I’ve taken down the photo of the canvasser that knock on my door on Sunday. I realise that in my anger I made the wrong decision, even though you couldn’t see their face. This person does know me, so I don’t believe it was accidental but part of efforts to harass and hurt me.
Happy birthday Mr RB. Welcome (almost) to the world of the OAP!
The world of prescription charges is almost forgotten for me nowadays, but once upon a time someone asking which of their prescribed medications was essential was pretty well a weekly occurrence.
Banning foie gras today, they'll ban fish and chips next.
I’m guessing they will be banning everything that is unethical and or dangerous from big engined cars to alcohol?
Otherwise someone might think they are going for an easy target that will have so little effect on the world but make them feel all warm and glowing inside.
"so little effect on the world" - one might feel that, but just consider if you were a goose. First people on PB discussing how to use your neck during a No. 2. Now this.
Oh I’m all for the happiness of the goose, I used to eat it a lot, I used to love that in the lead up to Christmas in the Swiss supermarkets there would be cabinets full of big juicy goose livers waiting for me to fry and serve with a nice Sauterne and some fig jelly however I now don’t eat it because of my vague ethics (much as I no longer eat octopus however much I love it).
There is “ethical” foie grass where they provide geese with crazy amounts of food at their usual sticking up period of the year ore migration but that’s still a tiny part of the industry.
I just think it’s funny that they ban something that is of so little relevance to the greater population knowing it gets good traction because it annoys the rich (because only the rich eat it of course) but they would be terrified of banning things that are worse for society but maybe popular with different groups.
Some people think, for example, that Halal slaughter is cruel, I don’t know the answer, but if it was banned for ethical reasons by Labour wouldn’t that be a good thing for society too?
I’ve taken down the photo of the canvasser that knock on my door on Sunday. I realise that in my anger I made the wrong decision, even though you couldn’t see their face. This person does know me, so I don’t believe it was accidental but part of efforts to harass and hurt me.
I'm not a big fan of MRP constituency numbers. They don't account for the variables of what's going on in a particular area.
We need some proper constituency polling - no one is going to poll East Ham (MRP says the Labour vote will be DOWN to 70% with Green and Reform rising). However, there are plenty of potential bellweather constituencies which could be polled and we know that polling does have an impact (remember Portillo?).
This isn't a national election but 650 simultaenous by-elections and as we saw in 1997, an average UNS of 10% disguises swings of all shapes and sizes ranging from a couple of seats (Bradford West?) where there was a swing AGAINST Labour to Crosby which saw an 18% swing.
Even in 2019, UNS on the day would not have given you Labour's gain in Putney.The YouGov MRP (from 4th to the 10th December) which gave Putney at 40-37 to Labour also predicted Labour would win 231 seats rather than the 202 they did win so if you start from inaccurate base figures the MRP isn't going to be accurate. The Electoral Calculus MRP from mid November got the Conservative and Labour seat totals spot on (365-202).
Confusing what will happen with what could happen is an easy mistake - two questions can be asked after the election on the polling - what happened and why did it happen? followed by what might have happened and why did it not?
The second question challenges the preconceptions going into the election such as the Conservatives could never win fewer than 150 seats or Labour could never win more than 420 seats or whatever (based on the actual result). At the moment, I sense preconceptions being used to interpret the figures (and let's never forget the preconceptions of the polling organisations in terms of their methodology, sampling and weighting).
In truth, we're blowing smoke into a room shrouded in fog if we want to play the constituency betting markets (unless you are so close to the campaign you have visibility). Overall, we can say Labour in the mid 40s and the Conservatives in the mid 20s means a big Labour majority but that's where we are now and if we are still in this place four weeks today we can be more confident of an outcome but even then constituency variation will play a big part.
The fact that Biden is not miles ahead against this apology for a human being shows how god awful he is.
I pity the US - they are being asked to choose between two flavours of turd.
I don’t think it does. I think it shows how there is a section of the US media that will tell people Biden is that awful and Trump is great.
Yes, Biden has one big drawback, too old. His opponent shares that and has a hundred other larger negatives. I remain confident that when it comes to the actual binary choice the US will not make the catastrophically wrong one.
Biden has dozens of big drawbacks, not just one. He can barely remember the name of the person he's talking to. He's been an awful president. And yet he's still not as bad as his opponent.
The Donald too has had senior moments, seeming to freeze on occasion (although we should note that in many incidents where his opponents claim he misspeaks, Trump is clearly joking).
When Dr Owen was Foreign Secretary, MI6 would debrief him after he met foreign leaders for his assessment as a neurologist of their health. It would be interesting to know MI6's current view of Biden and Trump's marbles.
Tories should put out ads saying they will keep foie gras, it could be a key issue in battlegrounds like Kensington and Chelsea and Fulham and Cities of London and Westminster.
The fact that Biden is not miles ahead against this apology for a human being shows how god awful he is.
I pity the US - they are being asked to choose between two flavours of turd.
I don’t think it does. I think it shows how there is a section of the US media that will tell people Biden is that awful and Trump is great.
Yes, Biden has one big drawback, too old. His opponent shares that and has a hundred other larger negatives. I remain confident that when it comes to the actual binary choice the US will not make the catastrophically wrong one.
Biden has dozens of big drawbacks, not just one. He can barely remember the name of the person he's talking to. He's been an awful president. And yet he's still not as bad as his opponent.
The Donald too has had senior moments, seeming to freeze on occasion (although we should note that in many incidents where his opponents claim he misspeaks, Trump is clearly joking).
When Dr Owen was Foreign Secretary, MI6 would debrief him after he met foreign leaders for his assessment as a neurologist of their health. It would be interesting to know MI6's current view of Biden and Trump's marbles.
Marbles, plural? Sounds rather optimistic!
Not sure there’s a single marble left between the pair of them.
My favourite was Daisy Cooper and her gang on the boat behind Rishi Sunak. As I said yesterday we might not be going to win the election but we are having great fun not doing so and I have to say the local campaign I have been involved in has been a huge amount of fun with lots of laughs. The most enjoyable so far and I have been involved in a lot.
I am going to miss it for the next 10 days as I cycle along the banks of the Loire. 7 days cycling, 400+ km to go. I might post some pictures but I don't have a Jess the cat or a dog for scale.
The Loire is lovely. I did it upstream as far as Cosne Cours sur Loire a couple of years back. Easy to make good progress and also easy to get utterly diverted and stop off in every town along the way. Enjoy. https://cycle.travel/route/loire
Yep same here I did Cycling for Softies there some time ago. Fantastic popping into out of the way chateaux to be greeted by the owners sitting outside in their faded cotton trousers offering you a glass of rosé.
I'm not a big fan of MRP constituency numbers. They apply the sledgehammer of UNS with tweaks to the nut of the variables of what's going on in a particular area.
We need some proper constituency polling - no one is going to poll East Ham (MRP says the Labour vote will be DOWN to 70% with Green and Reform rising). However, there are plenty of potential bellweather constituencies which could be polled and we know that polling does have an impact (remember Portillo?).
This isn't a national election but 650 simultaenous by-elections and as we saw in 1997, an average UNS of 10% disguises swings of all shapes and sizes ranging from a couple of seats (Bradford West?) where there was a swing AGAINST Labour to Crosby which saw an 18% swing.
Even in 2019, UNS on the day would not have given you Labour's gain in Putney.The YouGov MRP (from 4th to the 10th December) which gave Putney at 40-37 to Labour also predicted Labour would win 231 seats rather than the 202 they did win so if you start from inaccurate base figures the MRP isn't going to be accurate. The Electoral Calculus MRP from mid November got the Conservative and Labour seat totals spot on (365-202).
Confusing what will happen with what could happen is an easy mistake - two questions can be asked after the election on the polling - what happened and why did it happen? followed by what might have happened and why did it not?
The second question challenges the preconceptions going into the election such as the Conservatives could never win fewer than 150 seats or Labour could never win more than 420 seats or whatever (based on the actual result). At the moment, I sense preconceptions being used to interpret the figures (and let's never forget the preconceptions of the polling organisations in terms of their methodology, sampling and weighting).
In truth, we're blowing smoke into a room shrouded in fog if we want to play the constituency betting markets (unless you are so close to the campaign you have visibility). Overall, we can say Labour in the mid 40s and the Conservatives in the mid 20s means a big Labour majority but that's where we are now and if we are still in this place four weeks today we can be more confident of an outcome but even then constituency variation will play a big part.
Another consideration might be at what point (if at all) the Tory decline ceases to be universal and they 'go LD' with a regional grip on a few places and disintegrate totally elsewhere. I was just looking at FocalData who are releasing their first tracker today (and have put a second, post Farage poll in the field). On May 22 when GE rumours reached the rainy conclusion they were modelling the 'true' lead from LE data at 12 points 38 26. They ran a model on the polling in December and reached a conclusion of a 'true' lead of 10 versus polling at the time. We will.see if they are on to something but worth stating they assume campaign tightening and, well...........
There's been an electoral earthquake in the world's largest democracy and it could well have major global geo-political implications. As yet, no-one in Europe seems to have noticed!
I presume Farage's volte face yesterday was to enable him to have the national platform in the 7-way leaders debate later this month. I suspect if that debate hadn't been offered, he would have stayed out.
He gets a national platform though the fact neither Sunak nor Starmer will be debating the minor party leaders does devalue it a shade. Farage will obviously seek to dominate that debate and hope to confirm Reform in third place - that's far from obvious looking at some of the recent polls and given the inefficiency of the Reform vote (Farage is a fan of PR, who'd have thunk it?) 12% for Reform gets a lot less in terms of Parliamentary seats than 12% for the LDs.
Will he use the debate to make a bombshell "final offer" to the Conservatives? Seems implausible but the offer he could make might be for after the election. Pick a leader with whom I can "do business" (so to speak) and a merged party might be on the cards.
The alternative is he will rant in splendid isolation castigating everyone and everything with a large dollop of "I was right all along".He has sparkled in one on one debates but with six other party leaders he won't have the time to get going I suspect.
I think Penny and Ange will both emasculate the fatuous spiv and leave the bones for the cubs
It's Angela – she hates being called Ange apparently!!
I’ve taken down the photo of the canvasser that knock on my door on Sunday. I realise that in my anger I made the wrong decision, even though you couldn’t see their face. This person does know me, so I don’t believe it was accidental but part of efforts to harass and hurt me.
There's been an electoral earthquake in the world's largest democracy and it could well have major global geo-political implications. As yet, no-one in Europe seems to have noticed!
Modi's Theresa May 2017 moment? His BJP led coalition looks to have won most seats but fallen short of the majority expected in the count so far
I’ve taken down the photo of the canvasser that knock on my door on Sunday. I realise that in my anger I made the wrong decision, even though you couldn’t see their face. This person does know me, so I don’t believe it was accidental but part of efforts to harass and hurt me.
As David Cameron once said, too many Tweets make…
It's starting to become clear that Sir Keir was right to kick out Fazia
Banning foie gras today, they'll ban fish and chips next.
I’m guessing they will be banning everything that is unethical and or dangerous from big engined cars to alcohol?
Otherwise someone might think they are going for an easy target that will have so little effect on the world but make them feel all warm and glowing inside.
Yes. Because they can’t actually doing anything big and starmer has zero imagination and less spark Labour will be forced to do lots of tiny pointless annoying Woke things to satisfy the activist base
They could actually and easily be WORSE than the Tories. Just as economically inept and easily as bad on immigration, but with added layers of Woke nonsense
Happily I now spend most of my time outside Britain so fuck it
Why is banning foie gras "woke"? What about it fits the same framework of all the other things you call "woke"? The campaign to ban foie gras is older than the now common usage of "woke" in this way, so what was it before it was "woke"? Was it "loony left"? Was it "political correctness gone mad"?
Banning foie gras today, they'll ban fish and chips next.
I’m guessing they will be banning everything that is unethical and or dangerous from big engined cars to alcohol?
Otherwise someone might think they are going for an easy target that will have so little effect on the world but make them feel all warm and glowing inside.
Yes. Because they can’t actually doing anything big and starmer has zero imagination and less spark Labour will be forced to do lots of tiny pointless annoying Woke things to satisfy the activist base
They could actually and easily be WORSE than the Tories. Just as economically inept and easily as bad on immigration, but with added layers of Woke nonsense
Happily I now spend most of my time outside Britain so fuck it
Why is banning foie gras "woke"? What about it fits the same framework of all the other things you call "woke"? The campaign to ban foie gras is older than the now common usage of "woke" in this way, so what was it before it was "woke"? Was it "loony left"? Was it "political correctness gone mad"?
Banning foie gras today, they'll ban fish and chips next.
I’m guessing they will be banning everything that is unethical and or dangerous from big engined cars to alcohol?
Otherwise someone might think they are going for an easy target that will have so little effect on the world but make them feel all warm and glowing inside.
Yes. Because they can’t actually doing anything big and starmer has zero imagination and less spark Labour will be forced to do lots of tiny pointless annoying Woke things to satisfy the activist base
They could actually and easily be WORSE than the Tories. Just as economically inept and easily as bad on immigration, but with added layers of Woke nonsense
Happily I now spend most of my time outside Britain so fuck it
Why is banning foie gras "woke"? What about it fits the same framework of all the other things you call "woke"? The campaign to ban foie gras is older than the now common usage of "woke" in this way, so what was it before it was "woke"? Was it "loony left"? Was it "political correctness gone mad"?
it was more like a joke from the first poster!!!
Has no one on PB got a sense of humour?
I trust TSE to be making a joke - I do not trust that of Leon's post
I presume Farage's volte face yesterday was to enable him to have the national platform in the 7-way leaders debate later this month. I suspect if that debate hadn't been offered, he would have stayed out.
He gets a national platform though the fact neither Sunak nor Starmer will be debating the minor party leaders does devalue it a shade. Farage will obviously seek to dominate that debate and hope to confirm Reform in third place - that's far from obvious looking at some of the recent polls and given the inefficiency of the Reform vote (Farage is a fan of PR, who'd have thunk it?) 12% for Reform gets a lot less in terms of Parliamentary seats than 12% for the LDs.
Will he use the debate to make a bombshell "final offer" to the Conservatives? Seems implausible but the offer he could make might be for after the election. Pick a leader with whom I can "do business" (so to speak) and a merged party might be on the cards.
The alternative is he will rant in splendid isolation castigating everyone and everything with a large dollop of "I was right all along".He has sparkled in one on one debates but with six other party leaders he won't have the time to get going I suspect.
I think Penny and Ange will both emasculate the fatuous spiv and leave the bones for the cubs
It's Angela – she hates being called Ange apparently!!
Until I hear Sir Kier call her Angela she's Ange to me.
I’ve taken down the photo of the canvasser that knock on my door on Sunday. I realise that in my anger I made the wrong decision, even though you couldn’t see their face. This person does know me, so I don’t believe it was accidental but part of efforts to harass and hurt me.
Faiza Shaheen has been replaced as Labour candidate against IDS by Shama Tatler, formerly of Watford. https://x.com/ShamaTatler
Banning foie gras today, they'll ban fish and chips next.
I’m guessing they will be banning everything that is unethical and or dangerous from big engined cars to alcohol?
Otherwise someone might think they are going for an easy target that will have so little effect on the world but make them feel all warm and glowing inside.
"so little effect on the world" - one might feel that, but just consider if you were a goose. First people on PB discussing how to use your neck during a No. 2. Now this.
Oh I’m all for the happiness of the goose, I used to eat it a lot, I used to love that in the lead up to Christmas in the Swiss supermarkets there would be cabinets full of big juicy goose livers waiting for me to fry and serve with a nice Sauterne and some fig jelly however I now don’t eat it because of my vague ethics (much as I no longer eat octopus however much I love it).
There is “ethical” foie grass where they provide geese with crazy amounts of food at their usual sticking up period of the year ore migration but that’s still a tiny part of the industry.
I just think it’s funny that they ban something that is of so little relevance to the greater population knowing it gets good traction because it annoys the rich (because only the rich eat it of course) but they would be terrified of banning things that are worse for society but maybe popular with different groups.
Some people think, for example, that Halal slaughter is cruel, I don’t know the answer, but if it was banned for ethical reasons by Labour wouldn’t that be a good thing for society too?
Kosher slaughter is of course very similar to Halal slaughter, but I can't see Labour banning that!
I'm not sure where banning Kosher/Halal slaughter stands on the wokeness scale.
There's been an electoral earthquake in the world's largest democracy and it could well have major global geo-political implications. As yet, no-one in Europe seems to have noticed!
Yep - it's quite remarkable that Moda's attempt to bribe people has failed
There's been an electoral earthquake in the world's largest democracy and it could well have major global geo-political implications. As yet, no-one in Europe seems to have noticed!
The message for opponents to autocrats in fragile democracies is you can win or dent their power if you are smart in your coalitions. It worked in Poland, seems to be somewhat working in India and failed in Slovakia.
I presume Farage's volte face yesterday was to enable him to have the national platform in the 7-way leaders debate later this month. I suspect if that debate hadn't been offered, he would have stayed out.
He gets a national platform though the fact neither Sunak nor Starmer will be debating the minor party leaders does devalue it a shade. Farage will obviously seek to dominate that debate and hope to confirm Reform in third place - that's far from obvious looking at some of the recent polls and given the inefficiency of the Reform vote (Farage is a fan of PR, who'd have thunk it?) 12% for Reform gets a lot less in terms of Parliamentary seats than 12% for the LDs.
Will he use the debate to make a bombshell "final offer" to the Conservatives? Seems implausible but the offer he could make might be for after the election. Pick a leader with whom I can "do business" (so to speak) and a merged party might be on the cards.
The alternative is he will rant in splendid isolation castigating everyone and everything with a large dollop of "I was right all along".He has sparkled in one on one debates but with six other party leaders he won't have the time to get going I suspect.
I think Penny and Ange will both emasculate the fatuous spiv and leave the bones for the cubs
It's Angela – she hates being called Ange apparently!!
Banning foie gras today, they'll ban fish and chips next.
I’m guessing they will be banning everything that is unethical and or dangerous from big engined cars to alcohol?
Otherwise someone might think they are going for an easy target that will have so little effect on the world but make them feel all warm and glowing inside.
"so little effect on the world" - one might feel that, but just consider if you were a goose. First people on PB discussing how to use your neck during a No. 2. Now this.
Oh I’m all for the happiness of the goose, I used to eat it a lot, I used to love that in the lead up to Christmas in the Swiss supermarkets there would be cabinets full of big juicy goose livers waiting for me to fry and serve with a nice Sauterne and some fig jelly however I now don’t eat it because of my vague ethics (much as I no longer eat octopus however much I love it).
There is “ethical” foie grass where they provide geese with crazy amounts of food at their usual sticking up period of the year ore migration but that’s still a tiny part of the industry.
I just think it’s funny that they ban something that is of so little relevance to the greater population knowing it gets good traction because it annoys the rich (because only the rich eat it of course) but they would be terrified of banning things that are worse for society but maybe popular with different groups.
Some people think, for example, that Halal slaughter is cruel, I don’t know the answer, but if it was banned for ethical reasons by Labour wouldn’t that be a good thing for society too?
Kosher slaughter is of course very similar to Halal slaughter, but I can't see Labour banning that!
I'm not sure where banning Kosher/Halal slaughter stands on the wokeness scale.
Or angling. Or eating sentient beings such as pigs and whatnot.
I suppose we draw a line somewhere with no universally agreed place for that line.
I don't mind that but to suggest that banning foie gras represents some kind of fundamental right-thinking truth is asinine.
Listening to Farage this morning on R4 Today, I noticed one tiny thing. He didn't want to dwell at all on the fact that his policy of Zero Net Migration = 500,000+ new arrivals every year (matching the departures). That's 5 million per decade. He minimally acknowledged and moved away immediately.
For the right there are two big issues about inward migration; the numbers causing housing/services problems, and secondly the 'cultural' issues.
Net Zero migration may address the Reform voter's problem with the first, but not the second. Has anyone noticed this? I don't think Farage wants it mentioned. Which of course means no-one in the political domain does.
I’ve taken down the photo of the canvasser that knock on my door on Sunday. I realise that in my anger I made the wrong decision, even though you couldn’t see their face. This person does know me, so I don’t believe it was accidental but part of efforts to harass and hurt me.
As David Cameron once said, too many Tweets make…
It's starting to become clear that Sir Keir was right to kick out Fazia
Faiza Shaheen does seem a bit highly strung in her response to deselection but the grounds for it, supposed antisemitism for liking an American television sketch by the Jon Stewart, who is himself Jewish, seem farfetched. More likely she was suspected of latent Corbynism. https://www.yahoo.com/news/britain-aoc-faiza-shaheen-banned-113749880.html
I just spoke to someone about the election. He has "voted Conservative many times." This was not campaigning. I may even be voting LibDem rather than Labour as I’m in a three-way marginal.
Anyway, the chap I spoke to said of the Conservatives, and I quote him verbatim:
“Good riddance to them. They are fucking bastards.”
I just spoke to someone about the election. He has "voted Conservative many times." This was not campaigning. I may even be voting LibDem rather than Labour as I’m in a three-way marginal.
Anyway, the chap I spoke to said of the Conservatives, and I quote him verbatim:
“Good riddance to them. They are fucking bastards.”
I’ve taken down the photo of the canvasser that knock on my door on Sunday. I realise that in my anger I made the wrong decision, even though you couldn’t see their face. This person does know me, so I don’t believe it was accidental but part of efforts to harass and hurt me.
Faiza Shaheen has been replaced as Labour candidate against IDS by Shama Tatler, formerly of Watford. https://x.com/ShamaTatler
Somewhat defuses the left's allegation that minority ethnic women are being victimised, given Tatler's (apparent) ethnic origin.
Banning foie gras today, they'll ban fish and chips next.
I’m guessing they will be banning everything that is unethical and or dangerous from big engined cars to alcohol?
Otherwise someone might think they are going for an easy target that will have so little effect on the world but make them feel all warm and glowing inside.
Yes. Because they can’t actually doing anything big and starmer has zero imagination and less spark Labour will be forced to do lots of tiny pointless annoying Woke things to satisfy the activist base
They could actually and easily be WORSE than the Tories. Just as economically inept and easily as bad on immigration, but with added layers of Woke nonsense
Happily I now spend most of my time outside Britain so fuck it
Why is banning foie gras "woke"? What about it fits the same framework of all the other things you call "woke"? The campaign to ban foie gras is older than the now common usage of "woke" in this way, so what was it before it was "woke"? Was it "loony left"? Was it "political correctness gone mad"?
I’ve taken down the photo of the canvasser that knock on my door on Sunday. I realise that in my anger I made the wrong decision, even though you couldn’t see their face. This person does know me, so I don’t believe it was accidental but part of efforts to harass and hurt me.
As David Cameron once said, too many Tweets make…
It's starting to become clear that Sir Keir was right to kick out Fazia
Faiza Shaheen does seem a bit highly strung in her response to deselection but the grounds for it, supposed antisemitism for liking an American television sketch by the Jon Stewart, who is himself Jewish, seem farfetched. More likely she was suspected of latent Corbynism. https://www.yahoo.com/news/britain-aoc-faiza-shaheen-banned-113749880.html
She is a Momentum candidate, I have since learned.
I’ve taken down the photo of the canvasser that knock on my door on Sunday. I realise that in my anger I made the wrong decision, even though you couldn’t see their face. This person does know me, so I don’t believe it was accidental but part of efforts to harass and hurt me.
Faiza Shaheen has been replaced as Labour candidate against IDS by Shama Tatler, formerly of Watford. https://x.com/ShamaTatler
Somewhat defuses the left's allegation that minority ethnic women are being victimised, given Tatler's (apparent) ethnic origin.
I'm not a big fan of MRP constituency numbers. They don't account for the variables of what's going on in a particular area.
We need some proper constituency polling - no one is going to poll East Ham (MRP says the Labour vote will be DOWN to 70% with Green and Reform rising). However, there are plenty of potential bellweather constituencies which could be polled and we know that polling does have an impact (remember Portillo?).
This isn't a national election but 650 simultaenous by-elections and as we saw in 1997, an average UNS of 10% disguises swings of all shapes and sizes ranging from a couple of seats (Bradford West?) where there was a swing AGAINST Labour to Crosby which saw an 18% swing.
Even in 2019, UNS on the day would not have given you Labour's gain in Putney.The YouGov MRP (from 4th to the 10th December) which gave Putney at 40-37 to Labour also predicted Labour would win 231 seats rather than the 202 they did win so if you start from inaccurate base figures the MRP isn't going to be accurate. The Electoral Calculus MRP from mid November got the Conservative and Labour seat totals spot on (365-202).
Confusing what will happen with what could happen is an easy mistake - two questions can be asked after the election on the polling - what happened and why did it happen? followed by what might have happened and why did it not?
The second question challenges the preconceptions going into the election such as the Conservatives could never win fewer than 150 seats or Labour could never win more than 420 seats or whatever (based on the actual result). At the moment, I sense preconceptions being used to interpret the figures (and let's never forget the preconceptions of the polling organisations in terms of their methodology, sampling and weighting).
In truth, we're blowing smoke into a room shrouded in fog if we want to play the constituency betting markets (unless you are so close to the campaign you have visibility). Overall, we can say Labour in the mid 40s and the Conservatives in the mid 20s means a big Labour majority but that's where we are now and if we are still in this place four weeks today we can be more confident of an outcome but even then constituency variation will play a big part.
It will play a big part, Stodge.
I'm anticipating huge variations, region to region, town to country, town to town, parish to parish. There will be some superb opportunities for those close to the action. That doesn't include me these days but maybe I should just say that in my constituency of Tewkesbury I am very surprised to see the bookies have LDs third in the betting at 7/1. I'll take some of that now, and report back leter if I learn better.
Yes, it's another step in the process of civilisation. Once upon a time animal torture was regarded as acceptable, but nowadays people aren't so keen. Long may the trend continue.
My favourite was Daisy Cooper and her gang on the boat behind Rishi Sunak. As I said yesterday we might not be going to win the election but we are having great fun not doing so and I have to say the local campaign I have been involved in has been a huge amount of fun with lots of laughs. The most enjoyable so far and I have been involved in a lot.
I am going to miss it for the next 10 days as I cycle along the banks of the Loire. 7 days cycling, 400+ km to go. I might post some pictures but I don't have a Jess the cat or a dog for scale.
The Loire is lovely. I did it upstream as far as Cosne Cours sur Loire a couple of years back. Easy to make good progress and also easy to get utterly diverted and stop off in every town along the way. Enjoy. https://cycle.travel/route/loire
Yep same here I did Cycling for Softies there some time ago. Fantastic popping into out of the way chateaux to be greeted by the owners sitting outside in their faded cotton trousers offering you a glass of rosé.
I will use my one daily photo to show a lovely lady I met in my journey down the Loire. She owned this tiny chateau and these remarkable birds and she expertly flirted over her own wine as we lunched in her bucolic garden. Bliss
I presume Farage's volte face yesterday was to enable him to have the national platform in the 7-way leaders debate later this month. I suspect if that debate hadn't been offered, he would have stayed out.
He gets a national platform though the fact neither Sunak nor Starmer will be debating the minor party leaders does devalue it a shade. Farage will obviously seek to dominate that debate and hope to confirm Reform in third place - that's far from obvious looking at some of the recent polls and given the inefficiency of the Reform vote (Farage is a fan of PR, who'd have thunk it?) 12% for Reform gets a lot less in terms of Parliamentary seats than 12% for the LDs.
Will he use the debate to make a bombshell "final offer" to the Conservatives? Seems implausible but the offer he could make might be for after the election. Pick a leader with whom I can "do business" (so to speak) and a merged party might be on the cards.
The alternative is he will rant in splendid isolation castigating everyone and everything with a large dollop of "I was right all along".He has sparkled in one on one debates but with six other party leaders he won't have the time to get going I suspect.
I think Penny and Ange will both emasculate the fatuous spiv and leave the bones for the cubs
It's Angela – she hates being called Ange apparently!!
Until I hear Sir Kier call her Angela she's Ange to me.
I am not going to rise to your deliberate misspelling Topping, but to call a lady by a name that she dislikes seems both ungallant and mean – two traits I have never associated with you!!
My favourite was Daisy Cooper and her gang on the boat behind Rishi Sunak. As I said yesterday we might not be going to win the election but we are having great fun not doing so and I have to say the local campaign I have been involved in has been a huge amount of fun with lots of laughs. The most enjoyable so far and I have been involved in a lot.
I am going to miss it for the next 10 days as I cycle along the banks of the Loire. 7 days cycling, 400+ km to go. I might post some pictures but I don't have a Jess the cat or a dog for scale.
The Loire is lovely. I did it upstream as far as Cosne Cours sur Loire a couple of years back. Easy to make good progress and also easy to get utterly diverted and stop off in every town along the way. Enjoy. https://cycle.travel/route/loire
Yep same here I did Cycling for Softies there some time ago. Fantastic popping into out of the way chateaux to be greeted by the owners sitting outside in their faded cotton trousers offering you a glass of rosé.
I will use my one daily photo to show a lovely lady I met in my journey down the Loire. She owned this tiny chateau and these remarkable birds and she expertly flirted over her own wine as we lunched in her bucolic garden. Bliss
Everyone in Britain should just emigrate. Seriously. Whole place is a shithole now and the only tolerable bits are certain nice parts of london and the inner Hebrides
Just get out. It’s ruined. The lefties ruined it
Join me on my endless travels around the world. There is a lot of world out here and it’s fun!
Listening to Farage this morning on R4 Today, I noticed one tiny thing. He didn't want to dwell at all on the fact that his policy of Zero Net Migration = 500,000+ new arrivals every year (matching the departures). That's 5 million per decade. He minimally acknowledged and moved away immediately.
For the right there are two big issues about inward migration; the numbers causing housing/services problems, and secondly the 'cultural' issues.
Net Zero migration may address the Reform voter's problem with the first, but not the second. Has anyone noticed this? I don't think Farage wants it mentioned. Which of course means no-one in the political domain does.
I mean, it's also because nobody wants to make the argument for solving the first crisis without worrying about immigration - investment. We could invest in better infrastructure, more schools, doctors, houses etc. and still have immigration.
Farage is happy to push on those issues because that is what has been gifted to him by the neoliberal turn. People seem to forget that Corbyn's policies were still quite popular with a large portion of the population - he was just so unpopular that negative polarisation held together a coalition for the Tories. When Johnson said he'd turn on the spending spigot with Levelling Up, the Tories won in Labour heartlands. As long as the state keeps arguing it has no resources to care for average people, people will grow resentful.
Someone like Farage will aim that resentment towards the foreigner, people like Leon towards "wokeness". I would argue the left (correctly) turns that ire on capitalists - as they are the dragons of fable sitting on their hordes of wealth. The immigrant doing what humans have always done, move around the world when they need to, is not in a position of power to affect the poor state of our country. The "woke" who are just asking for historic injustice to be recognised, acknowledged and no longer perpetuated don't hold the levers of power. Those who do have power and influence in our politic are those who are wealthy, who own companies, who demand less regulation etc. etc. They are the ones who have been catered to in the last 30-40 years, and that is the reason for our decline. And no one who benefits from that system is going to stand up and point that out. So Farage is a useful tool - because when he points at shadows and calls them phantoms people don't look at the real causes of the problem.
If that polling is reflected in the general election, this is going to be an absolute thumping.
But I suspect it won't be. The Republicans will find reasons to vote for him anyway - enough to save 15-20 states.
If Independents break strongly against him, however, he can kiss goodbye to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, possibly Ohio.
It certainly does make his path to victory more difficult.
That, of course, has a knock-on effect on his trials in Washington and Florida. If he loses again it's hard to see than keep being stalled unless the Supreme Court really does go mad an rule presidents have absolute immunity.
The current state of the stalling is that SCOTUS are sitting on the DC and FL cases and can continue to sit on them for as long as they like. I don't think they need to rule anything crazy, they can just spend an unlimited amount of time considering the finer points of the judgement and then discussing which font would be appropriate and so forth.
They don't need to (though it's pretty crazy deliberately delaying the trials anyway) - but at least two of the justices would be well up for full on crazy when it comes to limitless Presidential power.
I’ve taken down the photo of the canvasser that knock on my door on Sunday. I realise that in my anger I made the wrong decision, even though you couldn’t see their face. This person does know me, so I don’t believe it was accidental but part of efforts to harass and hurt me.
What a doofus. Labour have made the right decision here. I really doubt, especially as she has been whining and bleating all over social media and the MSM, that they would do this deliberately to target here.
My favourite was Daisy Cooper and her gang on the boat behind Rishi Sunak. As I said yesterday we might not be going to win the election but we are having great fun not doing so and I have to say the local campaign I have been involved in has been a huge amount of fun with lots of laughs. The most enjoyable so far and I have been involved in a lot.
I am going to miss it for the next 10 days as I cycle along the banks of the Loire. 7 days cycling, 400+ km to go. I might post some pictures but I don't have a Jess the cat or a dog for scale.
Yes, it's another step in the process of civilisation. Once upon a time animal torture was regarded as acceptable, but nowadays people aren't so keen. Long may the trend continue.
I'm not a big fan of MRP constituency numbers. They don't account for the variables of what's going on in a particular area.
We need some proper constituency polling - no one is going to poll East Ham (MRP says the Labour vote will be DOWN to 70% with Green and Reform rising). However, there are plenty of potential bellweather constituencies which could be polled and we know that polling does have an impact (remember Portillo?).
This isn't a national election but 650 simultaenous by-elections and as we saw in 1997, an average UNS of 10% disguises swings of all shapes and sizes ranging from a couple of seats (Bradford West?) where there was a swing AGAINST Labour to Crosby which saw an 18% swing.
Even in 2019, UNS on the day would not have given you Labour's gain in Putney.The YouGov MRP (from 4th to the 10th December) which gave Putney at 40-37 to Labour also predicted Labour would win 231 seats rather than the 202 they did win so if you start from inaccurate base figures the MRP isn't going to be accurate. The Electoral Calculus MRP from mid November got the Conservative and Labour seat totals spot on (365-202).
Confusing what will happen with what could happen is an easy mistake - two questions can be asked after the election on the polling - what happened and why did it happen? followed by what might have happened and why did it not?
The second question challenges the preconceptions going into the election such as the Conservatives could never win fewer than 150 seats or Labour could never win more than 420 seats or whatever (based on the actual result). At the moment, I sense preconceptions being used to interpret the figures (and let's never forget the preconceptions of the polling organisations in terms of their methodology, sampling and weighting).
In truth, we're blowing smoke into a room shrouded in fog if we want to play the constituency betting markets (unless you are so close to the campaign you have visibility). Overall, we can say Labour in the mid 40s and the Conservatives in the mid 20s means a big Labour majority but that's where we are now and if we are still in this place four weeks today we can be more confident of an outcome but even then constituency variation will play a big part.
They account for some of the variables of what's going on in a particular area. Constituency polling has also proved to be of limited reliability in the past. In both cases it's similar problems - you can get a 'representative' sample on a set of characteristics (and with MRP adjust for those characteristics, too) but in both cases there are other things going on that are not in the weighting or in the model.
I agree though, that local knowledge is key. I assume (and hope) that a few local party workers make a killing in places where the results are bucking national trends. It's one of the reasons I tend to stay away from constituency contests - at least on exchanges - as I assume there are people betting who know a lot more than me. The bookies sometimes mis-price things initially, but tend to sort it once people notice and begin to pile on.
I’ve taken down the photo of the canvasser that knock on my door on Sunday. I realise that in my anger I made the wrong decision, even though you couldn’t see their face. This person does know me, so I don’t believe it was accidental but part of efforts to harass and hurt me.
Faiza Shaheen has been replaced as Labour candidate against IDS by Shama Tatler, formerly of Watford. https://x.com/ShamaTatler
Somewhat defuses the left's allegation that minority ethnic women are being victimised, given Tatler's (apparent) ethnic origin.
A woman of colour, but apparently not one with the 'correct' opinions. Much of the backlash and graffiti has come AFTER Shama Tatler was known to be the new candidate.
My favourite was Daisy Cooper and her gang on the boat behind Rishi Sunak. As I said yesterday we might not be going to win the election but we are having great fun not doing so and I have to say the local campaign I have been involved in has been a huge amount of fun with lots of laughs. The most enjoyable so far and I have been involved in a lot.
I am going to miss it for the next 10 days as I cycle along the banks of the Loire. 7 days cycling, 400+ km to go. I might post some pictures but I don't have a Jess the cat or a dog for scale.
The Loire is lovely. I did it upstream as far as Cosne Cours sur Loire a couple of years back. Easy to make good progress and also easy to get utterly diverted and stop off in every town along the way. Enjoy. https://cycle.travel/route/loire
Yep same here I did Cycling for Softies there some time ago. Fantastic popping into out of the way chateaux to be greeted by the owners sitting outside in their faded cotton trousers offering you a glass of rosé.
I will use my one daily photo to show a lovely lady I met in my journey down the Loire. She owned this tiny chateau and these remarkable birds and she expertly flirted over her own wine as we lunched in her bucolic garden. Bliss
Gorgeous! It is very hard to beat France.
It is. Its a close contest between France and Italy for the most beautiful country in the world
We are lucky to have them on our doorstep
They also have different strengths as destinations. France is much better organised and has better infra, but the Italians are much more charming and affable - a serious positive
Britain beats them both hollow on noom but I accept most people aren’t looking for intense spiritual experiences of rhapsody or human bleakness when choosing a holiday; or even a home
Comments
I will happily admit I cannot read runes if Reform rise at more expense of the remaining Tories
The 7-way slugfest is 7th June in evening.
The deadline for nominations and withdrawals is 4pm on the afternoon.
His Reformers will be on the ballot.
(a) Scotland goes its own way - PBUnionists "Devolution is a disaster! They're doing it deliberately!"
(a) Scotland lets England, Wales, NI go first - PBUnionists "Devolution is a disaster! They're doing it deliberately!"
Although it is true that the government has told us to stockpile food and water!
A friend of ours lives in England. She's middle-aged with several conditions but has to pay for prescriptions for them all. Not easy as she is not rich.
Bill Clinton was first elected thirty-two years ago and he's younger than both Biden and Trump.
https://x.com/mosiqi/status/1797865506931917037
https://www.nhsbsa.nhs.uk/help-nhs-prescription-costs/nhs-prescription-prepayment-certificate-ppc
Otherwise someone might think they are going for an easy target that will have so little effect on the world but make them feel all warm and glowing inside.
(I assume they'll also lift the ban on domestic production? We import 100% of our foie gras and that is a disgrace!)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-65474610
Trump June
Bush II July
Clinton August.
The Clacton specific hypotheticals were in the Survation poll in January.
Bit crap on us over 55 but Them’s the Breaks
Did you know that they employ tens of people in the Highlands?
They could actually and easily be WORSE than the Tories. Just as economically inept and easily as bad on immigration, but with added layers of Woke nonsense
Happily I now spend most of my time outside Britain so fuck it
Aha, outed! Not a flint knapper at all.
I’ve taken down the photo of the canvasser that knock on my door on Sunday. I realise that in my anger I made the wrong decision, even though you couldn’t see their face. This person does know me, so I don’t believe it was accidental but part of efforts to harass and hurt me.
The world of prescription charges is almost forgotten for me nowadays, but once upon a time someone asking which of their prescribed medications was essential was pretty well a weekly occurrence.
There is “ethical” foie grass where they provide geese with crazy amounts of food at their usual sticking up period of the year ore migration but that’s still a tiny part of the industry.
I just think it’s funny that they ban something that is of so little relevance to the greater population knowing it gets good traction because it annoys the rich (because only the rich eat it of course) but they would be terrified of banning things that are worse for society but maybe popular with different groups.
Some people think, for example, that Halal slaughter is cruel, I don’t know the answer, but if it was banned for ethical reasons by Labour wouldn’t that be a good thing for society too?
We need some proper constituency polling - no one is going to poll East Ham (MRP says the Labour vote will be DOWN to 70% with Green and Reform rising). However, there are plenty of potential bellweather constituencies which could be polled and we know that polling does have an impact (remember Portillo?).
This isn't a national election but 650 simultaenous by-elections and as we saw in 1997, an average UNS of 10% disguises swings of all shapes and sizes ranging from a couple of seats (Bradford West?) where there was a swing AGAINST Labour to Crosby which saw an 18% swing.
Even in 2019, UNS on the day would not have given you Labour's gain in Putney.The YouGov MRP (from 4th to the 10th December) which gave Putney at 40-37 to Labour also predicted Labour would win 231 seats rather than the 202 they did win so if you start from inaccurate base figures the MRP isn't going to be accurate. The Electoral Calculus MRP from mid November got the Conservative and Labour seat totals spot on (365-202).
Confusing what will happen with what could happen is an easy mistake - two questions can be asked after the election on the polling - what happened and why did it happen? followed by what might have happened and why did it not?
The second question challenges the preconceptions going into the election such as the Conservatives could never win fewer than 150 seats or Labour could never win more than 420 seats or whatever (based on the actual result). At the moment, I sense preconceptions being used to interpret the figures (and let's never forget the preconceptions of the polling organisations in terms of their methodology, sampling and weighting).
In truth, we're blowing smoke into a room shrouded in fog if we want to play the constituency betting markets (unless you are so close to the campaign you have visibility). Overall, we can say Labour in the mid 40s and the Conservatives in the mid 20s means a big Labour majority but that's where we are now and if we are still in this place four weeks today we can be more confident of an outcome but even then constituency variation will play a big part.
When Dr Owen was Foreign Secretary, MI6 would debrief him after he met foreign leaders for his assessment as a neurologist of their health. It would be interesting to know MI6's current view of Biden and Trump's marbles.
Not sure there’s a single marble left between the pair of them.
I was just looking at FocalData who are releasing their first tracker today (and have put a second, post Farage poll in the field). On May 22 when GE rumours reached the rainy conclusion they were modelling the 'true' lead from LE data at 12 points 38 26. They ran a model on the polling in December and reached a conclusion of a 'true' lead of 10 versus polling at the time. We will.see if they are on to something but worth stating they assume campaign tightening and, well...........
Has no one on PB got a sense of humour?
https://x.com/ShamaTatler
I'm not sure where banning Kosher/Halal slaughter stands on the wokeness scale.
Disgusting practice. Absolutely appalling animal cruelty.
I suppose we draw a line somewhere with no universally agreed place for that line.
I don't mind that but to suggest that banning foie gras represents some kind of fundamental right-thinking truth is asinine.
For the right there are two big issues about inward migration; the numbers causing housing/services problems, and secondly the 'cultural' issues.
Net Zero migration may address the Reform voter's problem with the first, but not the second. Has anyone noticed this? I don't think Farage wants it mentioned. Which of course means no-one in the political domain does.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/britain-aoc-faiza-shaheen-banned-113749880.html
Anyway, the chap I spoke to said of the Conservatives, and I quote him verbatim:
“Good riddance to them. They are fucking bastards.”
And you think the anger out there isn’t real?
c.f. @Big_G_NorthWales et.al.
Focaldata latest forecast is about a 15% lead at GE and predict polling packing in to the average over the next week
I'm anticipating huge variations, region to region, town to country, town to town, parish to parish. There will be some superb opportunities for those close to the action. That doesn't include me these days but maybe I should just say that in my constituency of Tewkesbury I am very surprised to see the bookies have LDs third in the betting at 7/1. I'll take some of that now, and report back leter if I learn better.
Just get out. It’s ruined. The lefties ruined it
Join me on my endless travels around the world. There is a lot of world out here and it’s fun!
He gets increasingly tetchy as Husain forensically picks apart his net migration ideas.
*stares uncomprehendingly*
Farage is happy to push on those issues because that is what has been gifted to him by the neoliberal turn. People seem to forget that Corbyn's policies were still quite popular with a large portion of the population - he was just so unpopular that negative polarisation held together a coalition for the Tories. When Johnson said he'd turn on the spending spigot with Levelling Up, the Tories won in Labour heartlands. As long as the state keeps arguing it has no resources to care for average people, people will grow resentful.
Someone like Farage will aim that resentment towards the foreigner, people like Leon towards "wokeness". I would argue the left (correctly) turns that ire on capitalists - as they are the dragons of fable sitting on their hordes of wealth. The immigrant doing what humans have always done, move around the world when they need to, is not in a position of power to affect the poor state of our country. The "woke" who are just asking for historic injustice to be recognised, acknowledged and no longer perpetuated don't hold the levers of power. Those who do have power and influence in our politic are those who are wealthy, who own companies, who demand less regulation etc. etc. They are the ones who have been catered to in the last 30-40 years, and that is the reason for our decline. And no one who benefits from that system is going to stand up and point that out. So Farage is a useful tool - because when he points at shadows and calls them phantoms people don't look at the real causes of the problem.
More cock up than conspiracy.
...or three.
I agree though, that local knowledge is key. I assume (and hope) that a few local party workers make a killing in places where the results are bucking national trends. It's one of the reasons I tend to stay away from constituency contests - at least on exchanges - as I assume there are people betting who know a lot more than me. The bookies sometimes mis-price things initially, but tend to sort it once people notice and begin to pile on.
https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/veteran-journalist-crick-provokes-anger-over-divisive-israel-palestine-election-post/
We are lucky to have them on our doorstep
They also have different strengths as destinations. France is much better organised and has better infra, but the Italians are much more charming and affable - a serious positive
Britain beats them both hollow on noom but I accept most people aren’t looking for intense spiritual experiences of rhapsody or human bleakness when choosing a holiday; or even a home