Tonight’s polls – politicalbetting.com
Tonight’s polls – politicalbetting.com
? Labour lead at 20ptsWestminster voting intentionLAB: 45% (+4)CON: 25% (-2)REF: 11% (+1)LDEM: 8% (-2)GRN: 6% (-1)via @OpiniumResearchhttps://t.co/RTQh3sU2dY
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That makes We Think the most recent poll (Labour lead of 25 points - I might have mentioned that).
https://x.com/mrharrycole/status/1796976637348610157
If he was able to explain why it was so important to do this, what benefits would accrue from doing so, or harm avoided, then it would be easier to believe he was committed to it, and easier to understand why he was willing to make it so important.
The Tories are likely to go in full panic mode now and I expect that we’ll see their manifesto with a series of desperate bribes .
I’d bet on them abolishing IHT as their final Hail Mary as the centre piece .
I’d bet on them abolishing IHT as their final Hail Mary as the centre piece .
They might need to promise to abolish death if they want to recover from the current polling.
That the last 14 years haven't been great.
And that their clear plan is just more of the same.
Right now nobody's listening because what they are hearing is totally dissonant with reality.
Folk may like the idea of fresh bribes. But barely anyone believes anything the Tories say.
(I should point out I don't actually support it, I just mean from a Tory point of view)
Feels to me we are now waiting for the debates and the manifestos. Their only hope is that it shifts the dial/Labour come under more scrutiny as it becomes clear they’ll win handsomely.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_KVL-wtpgg
Or is it that you think something will happen during the remainder of the campaign to change peoples' minds?
Conservatism exists not to stop progress, nor keep everything the same, but in acknowledgement natures way is everything forever changes, and we need to conserve what is of value and importance. You build a wall to keep the wild things out. Within the wall you build a path to get you from A to B safely in the dark or inclement weather. Where your way leads across the stream, you build a bridge. If you now do nothing to conserve the path and the wall and the bridge, nature will take them from you. It will change your world and take everything you value from you. Those things you want your children to learn in the right way, whilst on your knee? they will learn it first elsewhere, in the wrong way. The world needs Conservative thinking and Conservative action.
We have a Conservative Party in the UK that used to be very good at this, and often rewarded with power, but it has lost its way. Distracted by other things, it’s stopped focussing on its main reason to be - to conserve what is of value and what is important. The party has become an echo chamber for right wing capitalist think tanks and NeoCon groups, its leaders forgetting when they get excited by idea’s, they will ultimately have to defend them on the floor of parliament and at the ballot box.
Echo Chamber Government is not the way to lead a party or govern a country.
Higher or lower than that do you reckon?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-mySvuC9MMc&pp=ygUOenVsdSBsaW5lIGZpcmU=
And heaven knows I'm miserable now
I don't see any benefit he's derived from going early, except that he gets out of the game a bit earlier. Which might be it of course.
Nominations must be in by next Friday.
Let's see how many they put in.
PS Why not 631, given there are 18 in NI plus Lindsay Hoyle's in Chorley?
It's alright for Steve Bray to use it, I'm sure he doesn't bother paying PRS to play it in public anyway. But SKS should stay well clear, given that the Tories are already making snide remarks about his age.
They should try to find something from this decade to use, at the very least.
The Tory messaging right now is complete cobblers in comparison. It starts off with how hard everything has been, Covid, Ukraine, but then it jumps straight into claims that the government have made everything hunky-dory with tax cuts. And it just isn't true. Things are not hunky-dory.
My guess would be that Labour gains will exceed Tory losses because of Scotland.
I'm not sure there's much Rishi can do about it. But, he can't stay silent for 5 weeks.
Maybe the best thing is to just point out the dangers of giving Labour a massive majority.
Junior doctors want rid of the Tories although I can’t see Labour offering anything close to what they want.
Had Cameron not promised either but more austerity only it would almost certainly have been a hung parliament in 2015, even if the Tories still won most seats
This is just politicking. SKS showing a bit of his leg, before he shows another bit to someone else next week.
A sliver of hope there for PB Tories.
"The fault was not mine sir, it was Major Lennox!"
"Major Lennox answered with his life! As you should have done if you had any sense of honor. You lost the colors of the King of England, you disgraced yourself, you shamed yourself! The South Essex is stood down in name: if I wipe the name i may wipe the shame..."
BTW reaching a settlement with the junior doctors alone is going to cost multiple times the money raised by the non dom nonsense (assuming that raises any money at all of course).
OK the dire November weather doesn’t help, but this town is quite something.
A large central square, Saturday evening, grand Flemish-style civic buildings, 2 people in the entire space kicking a football around.
Few restaurants or bars apart from one gaudy red pub cum diner that looks like a TGI Fridays, one proper brasserie, some pizza takeaways and a branch of Subway. Subway, FFS.
Empty shop fronts. 80s and 90s red brick redevelopments around the 12th century basilica (which was open at 10pm, in the dark. Huge. Rather spooky), and an Ibis looking like an old Travelodge facing the West door across an archaeological dig.
Litter. Virtual silence. Patchy Drizzle. All it needs is a Poundland and a branch of British Heart Foundation and it could be somewhere the BBC go to explain Brexit. This is of course the heart of Le Pen country and I understand why. It is blighted.
Apart from the surprise value (and that seems to be hurting the Conservatives most), it's hard to discern the logic of July.
The memoirs and instant histories will be fascinating.
The lesson to be learned is that they should have stopped accepting below-inflation pay rises sooner, rather than waiting 14 years before going on strike for pay restoration.
Which in turn means that the incoming Labour govt is going to find it harder to keep a lid on public sector pay rises than they would have if the Tories hadn't insisted on stretching things beyond breaking point.