Leader of the Workers Party of Britain, George Galloway, has launched his party's general election campaign, saying the party is "four times bigger than it was 100 days ago".
A comment on the campaign, so far. Obviously, Sunak and Starmer (and Davey) are central and dominate the discourse. But it strikes me that Labour are promoting much more of a team approach; Rayner, Reeves, Streeting, Philipson, Reynolds and others are all featuring quite strongly. Whereas for the Tories, I've barely seen anybody but Sunak. Cameron seems to be keeping a low profile, for example.
I think the Tories are hanging far too much on the popularity (or otherwise) of Sunak, and their presidential campaign is backfiring.
This is incorrect, if you consider online presence. It's the SNP and Reform that are leading there.
Quick anecdote - even in Edinburgh, some people are whispering about Reform online. If you hate all the new cycle lanes, LEZ, gentrification, soy lattes, immigration, student housing, but the idea of voting Conservative is anathema to you, they are an obvious option. And this is where Farage not standing is important - without him, you can project whatever values you want on the party.
I'm not suggesting that Reform will get any more than a few hundred votes in any Edinburgh seat. But that's a few hundred that would typically be Tartan Tories or just Tories.
Keir Starmer: “Read my lips - I will bring immigration numbers down. If you trust me with the keys to No 10 I will make you this promise: I will control our borders and make sure British businesses are helped to hire Brits first.”
Unlike the Tories, with their promise to reduce immigration to the tens of thousands.
People are just in a place where, right now, they're willing to believe the best about Labour and the absolute worst about the Conservatives - to the extent where anything the former says extenuates that belief and anything the latter says just angers people.
I'm not sure there's much Rishi can do about it. But, he can't stay silent for 5 weeks.
Maybe the best thing is to just point out the dangers of giving Labour a massive majority.
LOL at this list of towns Sunak has pledged money to. Most of them just happen to be seats that have swung to the Tories in recent years and which they might lose at the coming election.
The most entertaining aspect of the Tories running a presidential campaign with Richi is, they think he is the best they've got.
They think he is so much better than the rest of the cabinet they can't risk anybody else on the stump.
Which is why they are 20 points behind and counting
Who in the cabinet is better than Rishi in your opinion?
That's an interesting question, because the answer is not 'who is better at their brief' the answer in this case is 'who can do a campaign stop without looking like a dick, who can talk to real voters without open contempt, who doesn't travel exclusively by private helicopter'. The answer might be 'all of them..."
Shapps. I'm not taking the piss - he's very good from what I've seen.
Kemi Badenoch @KemiBadenoch · May 31 Labour’s Shadow Minister for Equalities said someone can identify as a llama or animal and deserve respect if they do.
These people could be in charge of what your child is taught at school.
The most entertaining aspect of the Tories running a presidential campaign with Richi is, they think he is the best they've got.
They think he is so much better than the rest of the cabinet they can't risk anybody else on the stump.
Which is why they are 20 points behind and counting
Who in the cabinet is better than Rishi in your opinion?
That's an interesting question, because the answer is not 'who is better at their brief' the answer in this case is 'who can do a campaign stop without looking like a dick, who can talk to real voters without open contempt, who doesn't travel exclusively by private helicopter'. The answer might be 'all of them..."
Shapps. I'm not taking the piss - he's very good from what I've seen.
I said that at the time, either the forecasters are right or the nowcasters are and everything points to the now casters being accurate because I don’t see any reason why swing back (to the Tories) will occur
Kemi Badenoch @KemiBadenoch · May 31 Labour’s Shadow Minister for Equalities said someone can identify as a llama or animal and deserve respect if they do.
These people could be in charge of what your child is taught at school.
Ange is Labour's not-so-secret weapon. Especially, but not only, up north, Ange will enthuse quite a lot of people to vote Labour in a way that Starmer won't. That shouldn't be underestimated.
I can't help but read the text of the tweet as an inflated Proclaimers song.
"But I would walk five thousand miles And I would walk five thousand more Just to be the man who walked a million Miles to fall down at your door"
He’d surely be walking 10,000 miles in that scenario, not a million?
LOL at this list of towns Sunak has pledged money to. Most of them just happen to be seats that have swung to the Tories in recent years and which they might lose at the coming election.
Ange is Labour's not-so-secret weapon. Especially, but not only, up north, Ange will enthuse quite a lot of people to vote Labour in a way that Starmer won't. That shouldn't be underestimated.
I can't help but read the text of the tweet as an inflated Proclaimers song.
"But I would walk five thousand miles And I would walk five thousand more Just to be the man who walked a million Miles to fall down at your door"
He’d surely be walking 10,000 miles in that scenario, not a million?
Frankly I'm already amazed anything gets done in the courts thesedays.
@TomRHickman - What is the point of legal rights if the system requires you to compromise them because they are too expensive to litigate? @yuanyi_z What does it mean to have world-leading’ courts if they are increasingly giving up hearing ordinary cases involving ordinary people? My law column for @TheCriticMag. thecritic.co.uk/what-price-j…
Just had a series of creepy, intrusive questions about my bank accounts when trying to log into my banking app. I'm trying to pay me mate for petrol money that gets me to work. I assume this is some sort of attempt to prove everyone claiming UC is cheating the system somehow.*
* That may not be the case. But that I, and my mate automatically think it is is an example of how the Tory Party is regarded. We're all fucking cheats, so of course you are too.
Kemi Badenoch @KemiBadenoch · May 31 Labour’s Shadow Minister for Equalities said someone can identify as a llama or animal and deserve respect if they do.
These people could be in charge of what your child is taught at school.
I'm not qualified in mental health, but I really do worry about Kemi.
I’m not sure about this one to be honest. I’d have steered clear because I would not have wanted the excess furore required to work out whether it’s legit.
The main thing I take from this is that he clearly has different people in his focus groups then the opinion pollsters have in their online panels - I think this was something @isam would talk about a lot. The people who respond to opinion polls are weird and different to most of the population in some fairly large ways.
Now that's the sort of election results party I would like to be at.
It just looks like the start of a Death in Paradise episode where Nigel, the loud party guy gets murdered, everyone blames the small Indian looking houseboy but it’s actually the tall private school tosser married to a weird but hot right wing journo who did it.
Frankly I'm already amazed anything gets done in the courts thesedays.
@TomRHickman - What is the point of legal rights if the system requires you to compromise them because they are too expensive to litigate? @yuanyi_z What does it mean to have world-leading’ courts if they are increasingly giving up hearing ordinary cases involving ordinary people? My law column for @TheCriticMag. thecritic.co.uk/what-price-j…
The upcoming death bulge as the boomers go into the dark
Bankrupt councils
Nonfunctioning justice system
Nonfunctioning armed forces
Insufficient prison places
Massive government debt
Our children cannot buy houses
We import 500-1,000K people per annum to take up the slack
Meanwhile our lords and masters fuck around. My anger at the Conservatives is increasingly matched by my despair at Labour in simply ignoring the problems. I don't care if the election is won by Reform, the Greens, or Plaid effing Cymru. But somebody, somewhere, has to kick the arse of these overpaid overlords so they start bailing out the leaking boat.
I have not been so angry and despairing simultaneously at an election ever. It's not an election process, it's a CFIT for cosplaying politicians who like talking hard but couldn't wipe their own arse. They are just awful.
Frankly I'm already amazed anything gets done in the courts thesedays.
@TomRHickman - What is the point of legal rights if the system requires you to compromise them because they are too expensive to litigate? @yuanyi_z What does it mean to have world-leading’ courts if they are increasingly giving up hearing ordinary cases involving ordinary people? My law column for @TheCriticMag. thecritic.co.uk/what-price-j…
The upcoming death bulge as the boomers go into the dark
Bankrupt councils
Nonfunctioning justice system
Insufficient prison places
Massive government debt
Our children cannot buy houses
We import 500-1,000K people per annum to take up the slack
Meanwhile our lords and masters fuck around. My anger at the Conservatives is increasingly matched by my despair at Labour in simply ignoring the problems. I don't care if the election is won by Reform, the Greens, or Plaid effing Cymru. But somebody, somewhere, has to kick the arse of these overpaid overlords so they start bailing out the leaking boat.
I have not been so angry and despairing simultaneously at an election ever. It's not an election process, it's a CFIT for cosplaying politicians who like talking hard but couldn't wipe their own arse. They are just awful.
We do get the politicians we deserve given what behaviours we reward or, more accurately, do not reward, but that is when we need actual leaders the most, to tackle things that need tackling even if we don't reward that sort of thing, and take us with them.
Kemi Badenoch @KemiBadenoch · May 31 Labour’s Shadow Minister for Equalities said someone can identify as a llama or animal and deserve respect if they do.
These people could be in charge of what your child is taught at school.
I'm not qualified in mental health, but I really do worry about Kemi.
Kemi, like me, is a computer science graduate.
People like me think she'd be awesome. And totally get shitposting.
You normies with your "social life" and "personal hygeine" just don't understand us.
Sadly I also have to make money on political gambling (and also more fundamentally get laid) so I can emulate you to fit in. So can Kemi. But occasionally the mask slips. And it leads to deranged social media rants that MAKE PERFECT SENSE.
Frankly I'm already amazed anything gets done in the courts thesedays.
@TomRHickman - What is the point of legal rights if the system requires you to compromise them because they are too expensive to litigate? @yuanyi_z What does it mean to have world-leading’ courts if they are increasingly giving up hearing ordinary cases involving ordinary people? My law column for @TheCriticMag. thecritic.co.uk/what-price-j…
The upcoming death bulge as the boomers go into the dark
Bankrupt councils
Nonfunctioning justice system
Nonfunctioning armed forces
Insufficient prison places
Massive government debt
Our children cannot buy houses
We import 500-1,000K people per annum to take up the slack
Meanwhile our lords and masters fuck around. My anger at the Conservatives is increasingly matched by my despair at Labour in simply ignoring the problems. I don't care if the election is won by Reform, the Greens, or Plaid effing Cymru. But somebody, somewhere, has to kick the arse of these overpaid overlords so they start bailing out the leaking boat.
I have not been so angry and despairing simultaneously at an election ever. It's not an election process, it's a CFIT for cosplaying politicians who like talking hard but couldn't wipe their own arse. They are just awful.
Priority #1 is kick tories in the face. It's important to set a precedent for what will happen to a ruling power like this. Yes labour probably won't be much better.
Once labour also do nearly as badly we kick them in face also. Pour encourager les trots, as it were. At that point have to deal with the land how it lies. Expecting things to get better in governance atm is a pipedream so forget about it. Just be prepared.
Frankly I'm already amazed anything gets done in the courts thesedays.
@TomRHickman - What is the point of legal rights if the system requires you to compromise them because they are too expensive to litigate? @yuanyi_z What does it mean to have world-leading’ courts if they are increasingly giving up hearing ordinary cases involving ordinary people? My law column for @TheCriticMag. thecritic.co.uk/what-price-j…
The upcoming death bulge as the boomers go into the dark
Bankrupt councils
Nonfunctioning justice system
Nonfunctioning armed forces
Insufficient prison places
Massive government debt
Our children cannot buy houses
We import 500-1,000K people per annum to take up the slack
Meanwhile our lords and masters fuck around. My anger at the Conservatives is increasingly matched by my despair at Labour in simply ignoring the problems. I don't care if the election is won by Reform, the Greens, or Plaid effing Cymru. But somebody, somewhere, has to kick the arse of these overpaid overlords so they start bailing out the leaking boat.
I have not been so angry and despairing simultaneously at an election ever. It's not an election process, it's a CFIT for cosplaying politicians who like talking hard but couldn't wipe their own arse. They are just awful.
Priority #1 is kick tories in the face. It's important to set a precedent for what will happen to a ruling power like this. Yes labour probably won't be much better.
Once labour also do nearly as badly we kick them in face also. Pour encourager les trots, as it were. At that point have to deal with the land how it lies. Expecting things to get better in governance atm is a pipedream so forget about it. Just be prepared.
Can’t we just kick voters in the face? And then when they make the wrong choice we kick them in the face again?
Since you have been discussing Diane Abbott, I looked at her Wikipedia entry -- and found this: "They had one son, James,[16][11][163] before divorcing in 1993.[3][11][164] Abbott chose her Conservative MP voting pair, Jonathan Aitken, as her son's godfather."
Which I found as surprising as learning, from her Wikipedia entry, that Kamala Harris is a member of a Baptist church: "Harris is a Baptist, holding membership of the Third Baptist Church of San Francisco, a congregation of the American Baptist Churches USA."
(Links omitted in both quotes.)
I am not sure what to make of either of those facts, but I find them fascinating.
Frankly I'm already amazed anything gets done in the courts thesedays.
@TomRHickman - What is the point of legal rights if the system requires you to compromise them because they are too expensive to litigate? @yuanyi_z What does it mean to have world-leading’ courts if they are increasingly giving up hearing ordinary cases involving ordinary people? My law column for @TheCriticMag. thecritic.co.uk/what-price-j…
The upcoming death bulge as the boomers go into the dark
Bankrupt councils
Nonfunctioning justice system
Nonfunctioning armed forces
Insufficient prison places
Massive government debt
Our children cannot buy houses
We import 500-1,000K people per annum to take up the slack
Meanwhile our lords and masters fuck around. My anger at the Conservatives is increasingly matched by my despair at Labour in simply ignoring the problems. I don't care if the election is won by Reform, the Greens, or Plaid effing Cymru. But somebody, somewhere, has to kick the arse of these overpaid overlords so they start bailing out the leaking boat.
I have not been so angry and despairing simultaneously at an election ever. It's not an election process, it's a CFIT for cosplaying politicians who like talking hard but couldn't wipe their own arse. They are just awful.
Bailing out the leaking boat is what we are doing at the moment.
Are Labour actually going to abolish the House of Lords this time, or will it all be talk once again?
I see that ending the heriditary principle in the House of Lords was in the 1997 manifesto. The 'temporary' situation of some few remaining 27 years later is pretty hilarious, but I would think that that at least can be guaranteed this time.
I should think they will be vague, and it is not worth wasting time on wholesale reform (though I've suggested before several quick and easy options if they want), but promising review and possibly some action is probably going to be in there. It may depend on whether they say they will do something, or will seek to do something.
Based on language in the previous manifestos they may choose not to be as specific as last time, but there's a good chance they stick with the 'Senate of the Nations and Regions' again.
We will act immediately to end the hereditary principle in the House of Lords, and work to abolish the House of Lords in favour of Labour’s preferred option of an elected Senate of the Nations and Regions, but we also believe that the people must be central to historic political changes.
Our fundamental belief is that the Second Chamber should be democratically elected. In the interim period, we will seek to end the hereditary principle and reduce the size of the current House of Lords as part of a wider package of constitutional reform to address the growing democratic deficit across Britain.
Labour is committed to replacing the House of Lords with an elected Senate of the Nations and Regions, to represent every part of the United Kingdom, and to improve the democratic legitimacy of the second chamber.
To begin the task of building a new politics, we will let the British people decide on whether to make Parliamentmore democratic and accountable in referenda on reform of the House of Commons and House of Lords, to be held on the same day, by October 2011...We will ensure that the hereditary principle is removed from the House of Lords. Further democratic reform to create a fully elected Second Chamber will then be achieved in stages. At the end of the next Parliament one third of the House of Lords will be elected; a further one third of members will be elected at the general election after that. Until the final stage, the representation of all groups should be maintained in equal proportions to now.
We will consult widely on these proposals, and on an open-list proportional representation electoral system for the Second Chamber, before putting them to the people in a referendum
Frankly I'm already amazed anything gets done in the courts thesedays.
@TomRHickman - What is the point of legal rights if the system requires you to compromise them because they are too expensive to litigate? @yuanyi_z What does it mean to have world-leading’ courts if they are increasingly giving up hearing ordinary cases involving ordinary people? My law column for @TheCriticMag. thecritic.co.uk/what-price-j…
The upcoming death bulge as the boomers go into the dark
Bankrupt councils
Nonfunctioning justice system
Nonfunctioning armed forces
Insufficient prison places
Massive government debt
Our children cannot buy houses
We import 500-1,000K people per annum to take up the slack
Meanwhile our lords and masters fuck around. My anger at the Conservatives is increasingly matched by my despair at Labour in simply ignoring the problems. I don't care if the election is won by Reform, the Greens, or Plaid effing Cymru. But somebody, somewhere, has to kick the arse of these overpaid overlords so they start bailing out the leaking boat.
I have not been so angry and despairing simultaneously at an election ever. It's not an election process, it's a CFIT for cosplaying politicians who like talking hard but couldn't wipe their own arse. They are just awful.
Priority #1 is kick tories in the face. It's important to set a precedent for what will happen to a ruling power like this. Yes labour probably won't be much better.
Once labour also do nearly as badly we kick them in face also. Pour encourager les trots, as it were. At that point have to deal with the land how it lies. Expecting things to get better in governance atm is a pipedream so forget about it. Just be prepared.
Can’t we just kick voters in the face? And then when they make the wrong choice we kick them in the face again?
Already happened
Will continue to happen
(I just realised this was likely your point. It's after midnight on a Saturday. You know what I'm saying)
Since you have been discussing Diane Abbott, I looked at her Wikipedia entry -- and found this: "They had one son, James,[16][11][163] before divorcing in 1993.[3][11][164] Abbott chose her Conservative MP voting pair, Jonathan Aitken, as her son's godfather."
Which I found as surprising as learning, from her Wikipedia entry, that Kamala Harris is a member of a Baptist church: "Harris is a Baptist, holding membership of the Third Baptist Church of San Francisco, a congregation of the American Baptist Churches USA."
(Links omitted in both quotes.)
I am not sure what to make of either of those facts, but I find them fascinating.
Why did you find the fact regarding Diane Abbott and Jonathan Aitken surprising?
I said that at the time, either the forecasters are right or the nowcasters are and everything points to the now casters being accurate because I don’t see any reason why swing back (to the Tories) will occur
And I have always said, look at shares, don’t look at gaps. The Tory share of 28 was only one higher than several other pollsters. So not outlier in that sense.
And to be fair to JL, go back couple of thread headers and they are in right column next to Opinum in not giving snapshot like all other firms, but a projected share after swingback. I don’t think those projected polls should be in poll of polls with snapshot ones. When it came out, it wasn’t just HY treating it as something other than a manipulated projective poll. It got Fawkes and greasy Harry and every Tory in the land hopes up. Cruel.
And you gov isn’t worth the time of day after their London mare. Yougov were more than 10% out whilst at same time rival Redfield were spot on. they too should not be included into any poll of polls imo. In their office it must be sad if they feeling their method has gone wrong and worrying about it. Isn’t it something like not sampling new people, but an existing database that can have become unrepresentative? ☹️ sad
Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times
This whole affair has really been quite weird. However it ends up just letting her doddle to an easy win and then be ignored for 4-5 years surely would have been easier without all this briefing and back and forth?
Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times
What about his policy on appointment to the Lords? No ex-MP can be a Lord until eight years or two parliaments have passed, whichever is longer.
That's my policy! If he's adopted it he is clearly taking sound advice .
Doesn’t sound like Labour want the Abbott story to go away, Team Starmer briefing are giving it fresh legs themselves! They are far too smug and confident about this to think Abbott can run again with Labour rosette.
Maybe it suits them. Everyone barking down one reasonably harmless rabbit hole, are not looking into others.
Which brings me to a rather easy prediction I can make. The first real pressure Labour are going to come under in this campaign is from their tax raid on private schools. I’m hearing that’s it’s coming up again and again and again in canvassing, and not necessarily in posh area’s either, and even from people who don’t have children, because they hope to and hope to send them to a private education not abandon them to the state sector, and Labours tax raid on private education is going to kill that ambition off for their family. Labour are in a mess over this policy, they are shitting votes over this one policy alone. Labour are about to come under immense pressure to do a hugely damaging u turn on it, once media and opponents smell blood how insanely unpopular it is on the doorsteps and not surviving first contact with voters 😄
I was educated in the state sector, and I said to my mum, why didn’t you send me to a private school with all the money you have? And she said it was a school with a very good reputation, so there was no need to spend money on a private education. Yep. That’s my mum.
Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times
This whole affair has really been quite weird. However it ends up just letting her doddle to an easy win and then be ignored for 4-5 years surely would have been easier without all this briefing and back and forth?
Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times
What about his policy on appointment to the Lords? No ex-MP can be a Lord until eight years or two parliaments have passed, whichever is longer.
That's my policy! If he's adopted it he is clearly taking sound advice .
Doesn’t sound like Labour want the Abbott story to go away, Team Starmer briefing are giving it fresh legs themselves! They are far too smug and confident about this to think Abbott can run again with Labour rosette.
Maybe it suits them. Everyone barking down one reasonably harmless rabbit hole, are not looking into others.
Which brings me to a rather easy prediction I can make. The first real pressure Labour are going to come under in this campaign is from their tax raid on private schools. I’m hearing that’s it’s coming up again and again and again in canvassing, and not necessarily in posh area’s either, and even from people who don’t have children, because they hope to and hope to send them to a private education not abandon them to the state sector, and Labours tax raid on private education is going to kill that ambition off for their family. Labour are in a mess over this policy, they are shitting votes over this one policy alone. Labour are about to come under immense pressure to do a hugely damaging u turn on it, once media and opponents smell blood how insanely unpopular it is on the doorsteps and not surviving first contact with voters 😄
I was educated in the state sector, and I said to my mum, why didn’t you send me to a private school with all the money you have? And she said it was a school with a very good reputation, so there was no need to spend money on a private education. Yep. That’s my mum.
Not sure where to start with this one.
The bit in bold - are you suggesting that Labour would be polling at over 50% if it weren't for this policy?
Are Labour actually going to abolish the House of Lords this time, or will it all be talk once again?
They are 110% not going to do it. Because it’s not remotely as simple as the slogan sounds, as, I don’t want to come over all Sir Humphrey, the last thing meddling must do is create a mess and loose ends.
It can only be done once they can replace it with something that doesn’t replicate what the House of Commons brings to parliament, and nor is a quango too easily bent towards whoever controls the commons. Labour hasn’t a clue what they can replace it with that ticks all the boxes, and until that point they can’t act on it. I’m 27, and if I live another 50 years HoL will still be there just as it is now… except maybe a name change among other minor tweaks, which allows someone some point to say “told you we’d do it. Look. It’s gone!”
Are Labour actually going to abolish the House of Lords this time, or will it all be talk once again?
They are 110% not going to do it. Because it’s not remotely as simple as the slogan sounds, as, I don’t want to come over all Sir Humphrey, the last thing meddling must do is create a mess and loose ends.
It can only be done once they can replace it with something that doesn’t replicate what the House of Commons brings to parliament, and nor is a quango too easily bent towards whoever controls the commons. Labour hasn’t a clue what they can replace it with that ticks all the boxes, and until that point they can’t act on it. I’m 27, and if I live another 50 years HoL will still be there just as it is now… except maybe a name change among other minor tweaks, which allows someone some point to say “told you we’d do it. Look. It’s gone!”
Dumping the "elected" hereditaries finally will be enough for this Labour government to say they reformed it.
Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times
This whole affair has really been quite weird. However it ends up just letting her doddle to an easy win and then be ignored for 4-5 years surely would have been easier without all this briefing and back and forth?
Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times
What about his policy on appointment to the Lords? No ex-MP can be a Lord until eight years or two parliaments have passed, whichever is longer.
That's my policy! If he's adopted it he is clearly taking sound advice .
Doesn’t sound like Labour want the Abbott story to go away, Team Starmer briefing are giving it fresh legs themselves! They are far too smug and confident about this to think Abbott can run again with Labour rosette.
Maybe it suits them. Everyone barking down one reasonably harmless rabbit hole, are not looking into others.
Which brings me to a rather easy prediction I can make. The first real pressure Labour are going to come under in this campaign is from their tax raid on private schools. I’m hearing that’s it’s coming up again and again and again in canvassing, and not necessarily in posh area’s either, and even from people who don’t have children, because they hope to and hope to send them to a private education not abandon them to the state sector, and Labours tax raid on private education is going to kill that ambition off for their family. Labour are in a mess over this policy, they are shitting votes over this one policy alone. Labour are about to come under immense pressure to do a hugely damaging u turn on it, once media and opponents smell blood how insanely unpopular it is on the doorsteps and not surviving first contact with voters 😄
I was educated in the state sector, and I said to my mum, why didn’t you send me to a private school with all the money you have? And she said it was a school with a very good reputation, so there was no need to spend money on a private education. Yep. That’s my mum.
Not sure where to start with this one.
The bit in bold - are you suggesting that Labour would be polling at over 50% if it weren't for this policy?
I think "even from people who don’t have children" was a hint that this is not to be taken at face value.
Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times
This whole affair has really been quite weird. However it ends up just letting her doddle to an easy win and then be ignored for 4-5 years surely would have been easier without all this briefing and back and forth?
Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times
What about his policy on appointment to the Lords? No ex-MP can be a Lord until eight years or two parliaments have passed, whichever is longer.
That's my policy! If he's adopted it he is clearly taking sound advice .
Doesn’t sound like Labour want the Abbott story to go away, Team Starmer briefing are giving it fresh legs themselves! They are far too smug and confident about this to think Abbott can run again with Labour rosette.
Maybe it suits them. Everyone barking down one reasonably harmless rabbit hole, are not looking into others.
Which brings me to a rather easy prediction I can make. The first real pressure Labour are going to come under in this campaign is from their tax raid on private schools. I’m hearing that’s it’s coming up again and again and again in canvassing, and not necessarily in posh area’s either, and even from people who don’t have children, because they hope to and hope to send them to a private education not abandon them to the state sector, and Labours tax raid on private education is going to kill that ambition off for their family. Labour are in a mess over this policy, they are shitting votes over this one policy alone. Labour are about to come under immense pressure to do a hugely damaging u turn on it, once media and opponents smell blood how insanely unpopular it is on the doorsteps and not surviving first contact with voters 😄
I was educated in the state sector, and I said to my mum, why didn’t you send me to a private school with all the money you have? And she said it was a school with a very good reputation, so there was no need to spend money on a private education. Yep. That’s my mum.
Not sure where to start with this one.
The bit in bold - are you suggesting that Labour would be polling at over 50% if it weren't for this policy?
I think "even from people who don’t have children" was a hint that this is not to be taken at face value.
No take it at face value. Tax raid on private schools is dying a death on the doorsteps. Say in comparison with May’s Dementia Tax at this stage of 2017, all it needs now is for opposition and media (hint hint those of you reading this) to realise this and launch a pile on, and the polls will flip just on this one policy alone.
As I said up front, this is an easy prediction for me to make. Now we know from canvassing how badly this has gone down on the doorstep, Labour are in trouble over it. Labour are in trouble over it because they are stupid, this isn’t a clever money making wheeze and sop to Left wing, its voters from every level in society particularly working class who are furious with this policy, all it takes is a media pile on its unpopularity to make this election all about Labours school killing tax just like 2017 became all about Dementia Tax, and the polls will flip around.
Nick Palmer ex MP will back me up. Not many on here do more voter contact than he does, and he will be honest enough to tell you he has heard it over and over too. Even if he doesn’t admit I was first to inform him of Thangham’s defeat to the Greens two years ago!
Are Labour actually going to abolish the House of Lords this time, or will it all be talk once again?
They are 110% not going to do it. Because it’s not remotely as simple as the slogan sounds, as, I don’t want to come over all Sir Humphrey, the last thing meddling must do is create a mess and loose ends.
It can only be done once they can replace it with something that doesn’t replicate what the House of Commons brings to parliament, and nor is a quango too easily bent towards whoever controls the commons. Labour hasn’t a clue what they can replace it with that ticks all the boxes, and until that point they can’t act on it. I’m 27, and if I live another 50 years HoL will still be there just as it is now… except maybe a name change among other minor tweaks, which allows someone some point to say “told you we’d do it. Look. It’s gone!”
Dumping the "elected" hereditaries finally will be enough for this Labour government to say they reformed it.
The question was abolishment, and your answer is far from abolishment.
I’m not sure about this one to be honest. I’d have steered clear because I would not have wanted the excess furore required to work out whether it’s legit.
Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times
This whole affair has really been quite weird. However it ends up just letting her doddle to an easy win and then be ignored for 4-5 years surely would have been easier without all this briefing and back and forth?
Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times
What about his policy on appointment to the Lords? No ex-MP can be a Lord until eight years or two parliaments have passed, whichever is longer.
That's my policy! If he's adopted it he is clearly taking sound advice .
Doesn’t sound like Labour want the Abbott story to go away, Team Starmer briefing are giving it fresh legs themselves! They are far too smug and confident about this to think Abbott can run again with Labour rosette.
Maybe it suits them. Everyone barking down one reasonably harmless rabbit hole, are not looking into others.
Which brings me to a rather easy prediction I can make. The first real pressure Labour are going to come under in this campaign is from their tax raid on private schools. I’m hearing that’s it’s coming up again and again and again in canvassing, and not necessarily in posh area’s either, and even from people who don’t have children, because they hope to and hope to send them to a private education not abandon them to the state sector, and Labours tax raid on private education is going to kill that ambition off for their family. Labour are in a mess over this policy, they are shitting votes over this one policy alone. Labour are about to come under immense pressure to do a hugely damaging u turn on it, once media and opponents smell blood how insanely unpopular it is on the doorsteps and not surviving first contact with voters 😄
I was educated in the state sector, and I said to my mum, why didn’t you send me to a private school with all the money you have? And she said it was a school with a very good reputation, so there was no need to spend money on a private education. Yep. That’s my mum.
Not sure where to start with this one.
The bit in bold - are you suggesting that Labour would be polling at over 50% if it weren't for this policy?
I think "even from people who don’t have children" was a hint that this is not to be taken at face value.
No take it at face value. Tax raid on private schools is dying a death on the doorsteps. Say in comparison with May’s Dementia Tax at this stage of 2017, all it needs now is for opposition and media (hint hint those of you reading this) to realise this and launch a pile on, and the polls will flip just on this one policy alone.
As I said up front, this is an easy prediction for me to make. Now we know from canvassing how badly this has gone down on the doorstep, Labour are in trouble over it. Labour are in trouble over it because they are stupid, this isn’t a clever money making wheeze and sop to Left wing, its voters from every level in society particularly working class who are furious with this policy, all it takes is a media pile on its unpopularity to make this election all about Labours school killing tax just like 2017 became all about Dementia Tax, and the polls will flip around.
Nick Palmer ex MP will back me up. Not many on here do more voter contact than he does, and he will be honest enough to tell you he has heard it over and over too. Even if he doesn’t admit I was first to inform him of Thangham’s defeat to the Greens two years ago!
particularly working class who are furious with this policy
Come on. The labour lead with people in work is 52:15. The labour lead with people in social grade DE & C2 is 42:22.
The Labour lead with people who are likely to have school age kids is 52:14.
Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times
This whole affair has really been quite weird. However it ends up just letting her doddle to an easy win and then be ignored for 4-5 years surely would have been easier without all this briefing and back and forth?
Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times
What about his policy on appointment to the Lords? No ex-MP can be a Lord until eight years or two parliaments have passed, whichever is longer.
That's my policy! If he's adopted it he is clearly taking sound advice .
Doesn’t sound like Labour want the Abbott story to go away, Team Starmer briefing are giving it fresh legs themselves! They are far too smug and confident about this to think Abbott can run again with Labour rosette.
Maybe it suits them. Everyone barking down one reasonably harmless rabbit hole, are not looking into others.
Which brings me to a rather easy prediction I can make. The first real pressure Labour are going to come under in this campaign is from their tax raid on private schools. I’m hearing that’s it’s coming up again and again and again in canvassing, and not necessarily in posh area’s either, and even from people who don’t have children, because they hope to and hope to send them to a private education not abandon them to the state sector, and Labours tax raid on private education is going to kill that ambition off for their family. Labour are in a mess over this policy, they are shitting votes over this one policy alone. Labour are about to come under immense pressure to do a hugely damaging u turn on it, once media and opponents smell blood how insanely unpopular it is on the doorsteps and not surviving first contact with voters 😄
I was educated in the state sector, and I said to my mum, why didn’t you send me to a private school with all the money you have? And she said it was a school with a very good reputation, so there was no need to spend money on a private education. Yep. That’s my mum.
Not sure where to start with this one.
The bit in bold - are you suggesting that Labour would be polling at over 50% if it weren't for this policy?
I think "even from people who don’t have children" was a hint that this is not to be taken at face value.
No take it at face value. Tax raid on private schools is dying a death on the doorsteps. Say in comparison with May’s Dementia Tax at this stage of 2017, all it needs now is for opposition and media (hint hint those of you reading this) to realise this and launch a pile on, and the polls will flip just on this one policy alone.
As I said up front, this is an easy prediction for me to make. Now we know from canvassing how badly this has gone down on the doorstep, Labour are in trouble over it. Labour are in trouble over it because they are stupid, this isn’t a clever money making wheeze and sop to Left wing, its voters from every level in society particularly working class who are furious with this policy, all it takes is a media pile on its unpopularity to make this election all about Labours school killing tax just like 2017 became all about Dementia Tax, and the polls will flip around.
Nick Palmer ex MP will back me up. Not many on here do more voter contact than he does, and he will be honest enough to tell you he has heard it over and over too. Even if he doesn’t admit I was first to inform him of Thangham’s defeat to the Greens two years ago!
When you do admit it Nick, what answer do you give when you encounter anger from voters about Labours tax raid killing off private education for the aspirant working and middle class, (but not hurting the very rich of course, because the extra cost passed on to a Union Baron on 300K a year is no problem for them).
I understand when Labour canvassers hear dislike of this policy on the doorsteps, they havn’t a clue how to reply, and stick their head straight into the ground like an Ostrich. 😂
It’s anti aspirational. It’s so dumb this policy made the manifesto. It’s left the Labour campaign as a sitting duck ready to be shot down.
Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times
This whole affair has really been quite weird. However it ends up just letting her doddle to an easy win and then be ignored for 4-5 years surely would have been easier without all this briefing and back and forth?
Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times
What about his policy on appointment to the Lords? No ex-MP can be a Lord until eight years or two parliaments have passed, whichever is longer.
That's my policy! If he's adopted it he is clearly taking sound advice .
Doesn’t sound like Labour want the Abbott story to go away, Team Starmer briefing are giving it fresh legs themselves! They are far too smug and confident about this to think Abbott can run again with Labour rosette.
Maybe it suits them. Everyone barking down one reasonably harmless rabbit hole, are not looking into others.
Which brings me to a rather easy prediction I can make. The first real pressure Labour are going to come under in this campaign is from their tax raid on private schools. I’m hearing that’s it’s coming up again and again and again in canvassing, and not necessarily in posh area’s either, and even from people who don’t have children, because they hope to and hope to send them to a private education not abandon them to the state sector, and Labours tax raid on private education is going to kill that ambition off for their family. Labour are in a mess over this policy, they are shitting votes over this one policy alone. Labour are about to come under immense pressure to do a hugely damaging u turn on it, once media and opponents smell blood how insanely unpopular it is on the doorsteps and not surviving first contact with voters 😄
I was educated in the state sector, and I said to my mum, why didn’t you send me to a private school with all the money you have? And she said it was a school with a very good reputation, so there was no need to spend money on a private education. Yep. That’s my mum.
Not sure where to start with this one.
The bit in bold - are you suggesting that Labour would be polling at over 50% if it weren't for this policy?
I think "even from people who don’t have children" was a hint that this is not to be taken at face value.
No take it at face value. Tax raid on private schools is dying a death on the doorsteps. Say in comparison with May’s Dementia Tax at this stage of 2017, all it needs now is for opposition and media (hint hint those of you reading this) to realise this and launch a pile on, and the polls will flip just on this one policy alone.
As I said up front, this is an easy prediction for me to make. Now we know from canvassing how badly this has gone down on the doorstep, Labour are in trouble over it. Labour are in trouble over it because they are stupid, this isn’t a clever money making wheeze and sop to Left wing, its voters from every level in society particularly working class who are furious with this policy, all it takes is a media pile on its unpopularity to make this election all about Labours school killing tax just like 2017 became all about Dementia Tax, and the polls will flip around.
Nick Palmer ex MP will back me up. Not many on here do more voter contact than he does, and he will be honest enough to tell you he has heard it over and over too. Even if he doesn’t admit I was first to inform him of Thangham’s defeat to the Greens two years ago!
When you do admit it Nick, what answer do you give when you encounter anger from voters about Labours tax raid killing off private education for the aspirant working and middle class, (but not hurting the very rich of course, because the extra cost passed on to a Union Baron on 300K a year is no problem for them).
I understand when Labour canvassers hear dislike of this policy on the doorsteps, they havn’t a clue how to reply, and stick their head straight into the ground like an Ostrich. 😂
It’s anti aspirational. It’s so dumb this policy made the manifesto. It’s left the Labour campaign as a sitting duck ready to be shot down.
Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times
This whole affair has really been quite weird. However it ends up just letting her doddle to an easy win and then be ignored for 4-5 years surely would have been easier without all this briefing and back and forth?
Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times
What about his policy on appointment to the Lords? No ex-MP can be a Lord until eight years or two parliaments have passed, whichever is longer.
That's my policy! If he's adopted it he is clearly taking sound advice .
Doesn’t sound like Labour want the Abbott story to go away, Team Starmer briefing are giving it fresh legs themselves! They are far too smug and confident about this to think Abbott can run again with Labour rosette.
Maybe it suits them. Everyone barking down one reasonably harmless rabbit hole, are not looking into others.
Which brings me to a rather easy prediction I can make. The first real pressure Labour are going to come under in this campaign is from their tax raid on private schools. I’m hearing that’s it’s coming up again and again and again in canvassing, and not necessarily in posh area’s either, and even from people who don’t have children, because they hope to and hope to send them to a private education not abandon them to the state sector, and Labours tax raid on private education is going to kill that ambition off for their family. Labour are in a mess over this policy, they are shitting votes over this one policy alone. Labour are about to come under immense pressure to do a hugely damaging u turn on it, once media and opponents smell blood how insanely unpopular it is on the doorsteps and not surviving first contact with voters 😄
I was educated in the state sector, and I said to my mum, why didn’t you send me to a private school with all the money you have? And she said it was a school with a very good reputation, so there was no need to spend money on a private education. Yep. That’s my mum.
Not sure where to start with this one.
The bit in bold - are you suggesting that Labour would be polling at over 50% if it weren't for this policy?
I think "even from people who don’t have children" was a hint that this is not to be taken at face value.
No take it at face value. Tax raid on private schools is dying a death on the doorsteps. Say in comparison with May’s Dementia Tax at this stage of 2017, all it needs now is for opposition and media (hint hint those of you reading this) to realise this and launch a pile on, and the polls will flip just on this one policy alone.
As I said up front, this is an easy prediction for me to make. Now we know from canvassing how badly this has gone down on the doorstep, Labour are in trouble over it. Labour are in trouble over it because they are stupid, this isn’t a clever money making wheeze and sop to Left wing, its voters from every level in society particularly working class who are furious with this policy, all it takes is a media pile on its unpopularity to make this election all about Labours school killing tax just like 2017 became all about Dementia Tax, and the polls will flip around.
Nick Palmer ex MP will back me up. Not many on here do more voter contact than he does, and he will be honest enough to tell you he has heard it over and over too. Even if he doesn’t admit I was first to inform him of Thangham’s defeat to the Greens two years ago!
particularly working class who are furious with this policy
Come on. The labour lead with people in work is 52:15. The labour lead with people in social grade DE & C2 is 42:22.
The Labour lead with people who are likely to have school age kids is 52:14.
Ha ha ha 😃
I’m talking about what is ABOUT to happen. I was first to tell you the election was on 4th July, now I am first to tell you Labours Education Death Tax is about to become the biggest story of this election and dramatically shift the polls.
It could be correct, a policy that impacts a few people badly can be mentioned a lot on the doorstep when the vast majority of people that aren't affected have no reason to mention it but still approve of it. The unknown element is how big the penumbra of the policy is, people who don't have kids at private school but will one day want to, or did and want others to have the same opportunity as them, grandparents of children affected, etc.
I assume that Labour have focus grouped this to death as it's the only thing they have decided to keep from Keir's 2020 leadership pledges. If they thought the net effect was bad then Starmer would have dropped it a couple of years ago. It is perfectly possible that Moon is 100% correct but the policy still benefits the Labour campaign nationally. So the question is, has Labour made a mistake? We already know they aren't perfect but they have more data than Moon or Nick will have.
It could be correct, a policy that impacts a few people badly can be mentioned a lot on the doorstep when the vast majority of people that aren't affected have no reason to mention it but still approve of it. The unknown element is how big the penumbra of the policy is, people who don't have kids at private school but will one day want to, or did and want others to have the same opportunity as them, grandparents of children affected, etc.
I assume that Labour have focus grouped this to death as it's the only thing they have decided to keep from Keir's 2020 leadership pledges. If they thought the net effect was bad then Starmer would have dropped it a couple of years ago. It is perfectly possible that Moon is 100% correct but the policy still benefits the Labour campaign nationally. So the question is, has Labour made a mistake? We already know they aren't perfect but they have more data than Moon or Nick will have.
I'll add that Wes Streeting was very strong on this on BBC Question Time on Thursday.
The truth is after 11 years of this lot in government we've got school funding on course to be lower in real terms now than it was when labour left office. The gap in attainment between those from the wealthiest and poorest backgrounds is widening and when it comes to the wider opportunities that parents make big financial sacrifices to send their kids to private school for things like learning to play an instrument taking part in drama, theatre, competitive sport, those opportunities are declining for kids from ordinary and poor backgrounds. Music, sport, drama, participation in each of them has declined over the last 11 years and it shouldn't be like this I want to make private schools redundant by making state education so great that people won't have to make financial sacrifices.
Would he have been that blunt if Labour thought they would net lose votes due to it? Why would they just leave it as a sop to the left wing when everything else they are doing is shedding their left wing?
It could be correct, a policy that impacts a few people badly can be mentioned a lot on the doorstep when the vast majority of people that aren't affected have no reason to mention it but still approve of it. The unknown element is how big the penumbra of the policy is, people who don't have kids at private school but will one day want to, or did and want others to have the same opportunity as them, grandparents of children affected, etc.
I assume that Labour have focus grouped this to death as it's the only thing they have decided to keep from Keir's 2020 leadership pledges. If they thought the net effect was bad then Starmer would have dropped it a couple of years ago. It is perfectly possible that Moon is 100% correct but the policy still benefits the Labour campaign nationally. So the question is, has Labour made a mistake? We already know they aren't perfect but they have more data than Moon or Nick will have.
If Labour throughly war gamed it, they certainly arn’t telling canvassers how to respond, soon as it comes up their heads go into the ground like ostriches.
They have been caught by surprise on this one. This (what’s about to happen) is the sort of unforeseen shit storm that happens at elections.
Will it mean 20% leads end up in a hung Parliament like 2017? Maybe.
I actually think the comment below about the Conservatives owning some of the disappointments isn't a bad idea. It's clear at the moment the voters aren't listening and there is little to grab the media's attention. By saying that 'we've been in power for 14 years, a period with lots of change - recovery from the financial crash, Covid, war in Europe. We have tried and made mistakes in policy and behaviour. As PM I have worked to set a course and we are seeing some progress but not enough etc' - it isn't a message to rally masses, but it might get enough people thinking, 'I like the humility, governing is hard' and switch the dial a bit.
Cameron should be able to tell them that the Tories won a majority in 2015, after five years of austerity, because they were upfront about the fact that some pain was necessary - we're all in it together was a blinder.
The Tory messaging right now is complete cobblers in comparison. It starts off with how hard everything has been, Covid, Ukraine, but then it jumps straight into claims that the government have made everything hunky-dory with tax cuts. And it just isn't true. Things are not hunky-dory.
Cameron won a majority in 2015 on a manifesto commitment to remove the family home from IHT up to a million pounds (which the LDs had blocked in the coalition) and by promising a referendum on EU membership to keep the UKIP vote down.
Had Cameron not promised either but more austerity only it would almost certainly have been a hung parliament in 2015, even if the Tories still won most seats
Cameron won a majority in 2015 because the SNP wiped out Labour in Scotland. Otherwise EICIPM would have been PM. And because the LibDems were all but destroyed. Ukip got 50 per cent more votes than the LibDems so it is not clear that Cameron's referendum promise did "keep the Ukip vote down" (3.4 million for Ukip, 2.9 million for LibDems): it is just that the Ukip vote was very inefficiently spread so they returned only one MP.
Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times
This whole affair has really been quite weird. However it ends up just letting her doddle to an easy win and then be ignored for 4-5 years surely would have been easier without all this briefing and back and forth?
Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times
What about his policy on appointment to the Lords? No ex-MP can be a Lord until eight years or two parliaments have passed, whichever is longer.
That's my policy! If he's adopted it he is clearly taking sound advice .
Doesn’t sound like Labour want the Abbott story to go away, Team Starmer briefing are giving it fresh legs themselves! They are far too smug and confident about this to think Abbott can run again with Labour rosette.
Maybe it suits them. Everyone barking down one reasonably harmless rabbit hole, are not looking into others.
Which brings me to a rather easy prediction I can make. The first real pressure Labour are going to come under in this campaign is from their tax raid on private schools. I’m hearing that’s it’s coming up again and again and again in canvassing, and not necessarily in posh area’s either, and even from people who don’t have children, because they hope to and hope to send them to a private education not abandon them to the state sector, and Labours tax raid on private education is going to kill that ambition off for their family. Labour are in a mess over this policy, they are shitting votes over this one policy alone. Labour are about to come under immense pressure to do a hugely damaging u turn on it, once media and opponents smell blood how insanely unpopular it is on the doorsteps and not surviving first contact with voters 😄
I was educated in the state sector, and I said to my mum, why didn’t you send me to a private school with all the money you have? And she said it was a school with a very good reputation, so there was no need to spend money on a private education. Yep. That’s my mum.
Not sure where to start with this one.
The bit in bold - are you suggesting that Labour would be polling at over 50% if it weren't for this policy?
I think "even from people who don’t have children" was a hint that this is not to be taken at face value.
No take it at face value. Tax raid on private schools is dying a death on the doorsteps. Say in comparison with May’s Dementia Tax at this stage of 2017, all it needs now is for opposition and media (hint hint those of you reading this) to realise this and launch a pile on, and the polls will flip just on this one policy alone.
As I said up front, this is an easy prediction for me to make. Now we know from canvassing how badly this has gone down on the doorstep, Labour are in trouble over it. Labour are in trouble over it because they are stupid, this isn’t a clever money making wheeze and sop to Left wing, its voters from every level in society particularly working class who are furious with this policy, all it takes is a media pile on its unpopularity to make this election all about Labours school killing tax just like 2017 became all about Dementia Tax, and the polls will flip around.
Nick Palmer ex MP will back me up. Not many on here do more voter contact than he does, and he will be honest enough to tell you he has heard it over and over too. Even if he doesn’t admit I was first to inform him of Thangham’s defeat to the Greens two years ago!
particularly working class who are furious with this policy
Come on. The labour lead with people in work is 52:15. The labour lead with people in social grade DE & C2 is 42:22.
The Labour lead with people who are likely to have school age kids is 52:14.
Ha ha ha 😃
I’m talking about what is ABOUT to happen. I was first to tell you the election was on 4th July, now I am first to tell you Labours Education Death Tax is about to become the biggest story of this election and dramatically shift the polls.
You telling me I’m wrong?
Yes, I think you're wrong.
1) I don't think it's a net negative for Labour. They need something to keep the base onside, and it's a useful tax rise to point to whenever someone asks them how they will afford something (even if the sums don't add up)
2) I'm certain it won't have the breadth of impact that May's social care reform did. Social care will affect almost everyone. Only 7% of all kids go to private school. The policy has been around for months already and has barely caused a ripple - another distinction from social care reform, which was dropped into the manifesto at the last minute by May.
It could be correct, a policy that impacts a few people badly can be mentioned a lot on the doorstep when the vast majority of people that aren't affected have no reason to mention it but still approve of it. The unknown element is how big the penumbra of the policy is, people who don't have kids at private school but will one day want to, or did and want others to have the same opportunity as them, grandparents of children affected, etc.
I assume that Labour have focus grouped this to death as it's the only thing they have decided to keep from Keir's 2020 leadership pledges. If they thought the net effect was bad then Starmer would have dropped it a couple of years ago. It is perfectly possible that Moon is 100% correct but the policy still benefits the Labour campaign nationally. So the question is, has Labour made a mistake? We already know they aren't perfect but they have more data than Moon or Nick will have.
If Labour throughly war gamed it, they certainly arn’t telling canvassers how to respond, soon as it comes up their heads go into the ground like ostriches.
They have been caught by surprise on this one. This (what’s about to happen) is the sort of unforeseen shit storm that happens at elections.
Will it mean 20% leads end up in a hung Parliament like 2017? Maybe.
Since when has Labour party canvassers ever been trained or expected to debate policy on the doorstep, when I was doing it, we told our canvassers not to do that, if the candidate is with you then the candidate can do it, otherwise take a note and we'll get back to them.
Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times
This whole affair has really been quite weird. However it ends up just letting her doddle to an easy win and then be ignored for 4-5 years surely would have been easier without all this briefing and back and forth?
Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times
What about his policy on appointment to the Lords? No ex-MP can be a Lord until eight years or two parliaments have passed, whichever is longer.
That's my policy! If he's adopted it he is clearly taking sound advice .
Doesn’t sound like Labour want the Abbott story to go away, Team Starmer briefing are giving it fresh legs themselves! They are far too smug and confident about this to think Abbott can run again with Labour rosette.
Maybe it suits them. Everyone barking down one reasonably harmless rabbit hole, are not looking into others.
Which brings me to a rather easy prediction I can make. The first real pressure Labour are going to come under in this campaign is from their tax raid on private schools. I’m hearing that’s it’s coming up again and again and again in canvassing, and not necessarily in posh area’s either, and even from people who don’t have children, because they hope to and hope to send them to a private education not abandon them to the state sector, and Labours tax raid on private education is going to kill that ambition off for their family. Labour are in a mess over this policy, they are shitting votes over this one policy alone. Labour are about to come under immense pressure to do a hugely damaging u turn on it, once media and opponents smell blood how insanely unpopular it is on the doorsteps and not surviving first contact with voters 😄
I was educated in the state sector, and I said to my mum, why didn’t you send me to a private school with all the money you have? And she said it was a school with a very good reputation, so there was no need to spend money on a private education. Yep. That’s my mum.
Not sure where to start with this one.
The bit in bold - are you suggesting that Labour would be polling at over 50% if it weren't for this policy?
I think "even from people who don’t have children" was a hint that this is not to be taken at face value.
No take it at face value. Tax raid on private schools is dying a death on the doorsteps. Say in comparison with May’s Dementia Tax at this stage of 2017, all it needs now is for opposition and media (hint hint those of you reading this) to realise this and launch a pile on, and the polls will flip just on this one policy alone.
As I said up front, this is an easy prediction for me to make. Now we know from canvassing how badly this has gone down on the doorstep, Labour are in trouble over it. Labour are in trouble over it because they are stupid, this isn’t a clever money making wheeze and sop to Left wing, its voters from every level in society particularly working class who are furious with this policy, all it takes is a media pile on its unpopularity to make this election all about Labours school killing tax just like 2017 became all about Dementia Tax, and the polls will flip around.
Nick Palmer ex MP will back me up. Not many on here do more voter contact than he does, and he will be honest enough to tell you he has heard it over and over too. Even if he doesn’t admit I was first to inform him of Thangham’s defeat to the Greens two years ago!
particularly working class who are furious with this policy
Come on. The labour lead with people in work is 52:15. The labour lead with people in social grade DE & C2 is 42:22.
The Labour lead with people who are likely to have school age kids is 52:14.
Ha ha ha 😃
I’m talking about what is ABOUT to happen. I was first to tell you the election was on 4th July, now I am first to tell you Labours Education Death Tax is about to become the biggest story of this election and dramatically shift the polls.
You telling me I’m wrong?
Yes, I think you're wrong.
1) I don't think it's a net negative for Labour. They need something to keep the base onside, and it's a useful tax rise to point to whenever someone asks them how they will afford something (even if the sums don't add up)
2) I'm certain it won't have the breadth of impact that May's social care reform did. Social care will affect almost everyone. Only 7% of all kids go to private school. The policy has been around for months already and has barely caused a ripple - another distinction from social care reform, which was dropped into the manifesto at the last minute by May.
“Yes, I think you're wrong.”
We’ve been here before. 🤣
How come I always know what’s about to happen in politics before everyone else? I knew Sunak was calling an election for 4th July even before he did!
SNP ministers have been accused of “negligence on a remarkable scale” after it emerged they are set to hand back £450 million of EU money they failed to spend on key economic and anti-poverty projects.
Scotland is expected to return 28 per cent of the European structural and investment funding it received in the past six years having failed to allocate the cash.
By comparison, Wales is on course to return 9 per cent of its money, England 6 per cent and Northern Ireland 2 per cent.
Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times
This whole affair has really been quite weird. However it ends up just letting her doddle to an easy win and then be ignored for 4-5 years surely would have been easier without all this briefing and back and forth?
Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times
What about his policy on appointment to the Lords? No ex-MP can be a Lord until eight years or two parliaments have passed, whichever is longer.
That's my policy! If he's adopted it he is clearly taking sound advice .
Doesn’t sound like Labour want the Abbott story to go away, Team Starmer briefing are giving it fresh legs themselves! They are far too smug and confident about this to think Abbott can run again with Labour rosette.
Maybe it suits them. Everyone barking down one reasonably harmless rabbit hole, are not looking into others.
Which brings me to a rather easy prediction I can make. The first real pressure Labour are going to come under in this campaign is from their tax raid on private schools. I’m hearing that’s it’s coming up again and again and again in canvassing, and not necessarily in posh area’s either, and even from people who don’t have children, because they hope to and hope to send them to a private education not abandon them to the state sector, and Labours tax raid on private education is going to kill that ambition off for their family. Labour are in a mess over this policy, they are shitting votes over this one policy alone. Labour are about to come under immense pressure to do a hugely damaging u turn on it, once media and opponents smell blood how insanely unpopular it is on the doorsteps and not surviving first contact with voters 😄
I was educated in the state sector, and I said to my mum, why didn’t you send me to a private school with all the money you have? And she said it was a school with a very good reputation, so there was no need to spend money on a private education. Yep. That’s my mum.
Not sure where to start with this one.
The bit in bold - are you suggesting that Labour would be polling at over 50% if it weren't for this policy?
I think "even from people who don’t have children" was a hint that this is not to be taken at face value.
No take it at face value. Tax raid on private schools is dying a death on the doorsteps. Say in comparison with May’s Dementia Tax at this stage of 2017, all it needs now is for opposition and media (hint hint those of you reading this) to realise this and launch a pile on, and the polls will flip just on this one policy alone.
As I said up front, this is an easy prediction for me to make. Now we know from canvassing how badly this has gone down on the doorstep, Labour are in trouble over it. Labour are in trouble over it because they are stupid, this isn’t a clever money making wheeze and sop to Left wing, its voters from every level in society particularly working class who are furious with this policy, all it takes is a media pile on its unpopularity to make this election all about Labours school killing tax just like 2017 became all about Dementia Tax, and the polls will flip around.
Nick Palmer ex MP will back me up. Not many on here do more voter contact than he does, and he will be honest enough to tell you he has heard it over and over too. Even if he doesn’t admit I was first to inform him of Thangham’s defeat to the Greens two years ago!
particularly working class who are furious with this policy
Come on. The labour lead with people in work is 52:15. The labour lead with people in social grade DE & C2 is 42:22.
The Labour lead with people who are likely to have school age kids is 52:14.
Ha ha ha 😃
I’m talking about what is ABOUT to happen. I was first to tell you the election was on 4th July, now I am first to tell you Labours Education Death Tax is about to become the biggest story of this election and dramatically shift the polls.
A comment on the campaign, so far. Obviously, Sunak and Starmer (and Davey) are central and dominate the discourse. But it strikes me that Labour are promoting much more of a team approach; Rayner, Reeves, Streeting, Philipson, Reynolds and others are all featuring quite strongly. Whereas for the Tories, I've barely seen anybody but Sunak. Cameron seems to be keeping a low profile, for example.
I think the Tories are hanging far too much on the popularity (or otherwise) of Sunak, and their presidential campaign is backfiring.
Or maybe. He's the scapegoat for the utter intellectual, moral and philosophical void which constitutes the Conservative Party in 2024? Hang all the blame and suffering on him and we shall awake reborn and unstained on July 5th? (With the same prejudices and lack of understanding of what got them here).
Are presidential campaigns not Tory SOP dictated by their Australian consultants?
RefUK well ahead of Tories but behind Labour on TikTok. Lab & Con joined TikTok after the election was called, which might be further evidence that Rishi caught his own party off-guard when calling a July election. LibDems barely trouble the judges.
RefUK has the most liked posts on Facebook, where Lab & Con have been buying adverts.
Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times
This whole affair has really been quite weird. However it ends up just letting her doddle to an easy win and then be ignored for 4-5 years surely would have been easier without all this briefing and back and forth?
Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times
What about his policy on appointment to the Lords? No ex-MP can be a Lord until eight years or two parliaments have passed, whichever is longer.
That's my policy! If he's adopted it he is clearly taking sound advice .
Doesn’t sound like Labour want the Abbott story to go away, Team Starmer briefing are giving it fresh legs themselves! They are far too smug and confident about this to think Abbott can run again with Labour rosette.
Maybe it suits them. Everyone barking down one reasonably harmless rabbit hole, are not looking into others.
Which brings me to a rather easy prediction I can make. The first real pressure Labour are going to come under in this campaign is from their tax raid on private schools. I’m hearing that’s it’s coming up again and again and again in canvassing, and not necessarily in posh area’s either, and even from people who don’t have children, because they hope to and hope to send them to a private education not abandon them to the state sector, and Labours tax raid on private education is going to kill that ambition off for their family. Labour are in a mess over this policy, they are shitting votes over this one policy alone. Labour are about to come under immense pressure to do a hugely damaging u turn on it, once media and opponents smell blood how insanely unpopular it is on the doorsteps and not surviving first contact with voters 😄
I was educated in the state sector, and I said to my mum, why didn’t you send me to a private school with all the money you have? And she said it was a school with a very good reputation, so there was no need to spend money on a private education. Yep. That’s my mum.
Not sure where to start with this one.
The bit in bold - are you suggesting that Labour would be polling at over 50% if it weren't for this policy?
I think "even from people who don’t have children" was a hint that this is not to be taken at face value.
No take it at face value. Tax raid on private schools is dying a death on the doorsteps. Say in comparison with May’s Dementia Tax at this stage of 2017, all it needs now is for opposition and media (hint hint those of you reading this) to realise this and launch a pile on, and the polls will flip just on this one policy alone.
As I said up front, this is an easy prediction for me to make. Now we know from canvassing how badly this has gone down on the doorstep, Labour are in trouble over it. Labour are in trouble over it because they are stupid, this isn’t a clever money making wheeze and sop to Left wing, its voters from every level in society particularly working class who are furious with this policy, all it takes is a media pile on its unpopularity to make this election all about Labours school killing tax just like 2017 became all about Dementia Tax, and the polls will flip around.
Nick Palmer ex MP will back me up. Not many on here do more voter contact than he does, and he will be honest enough to tell you he has heard it over and over too. Even if he doesn’t admit I was first to inform him of Thangham’s defeat to the Greens two years ago!
particularly working class who are furious with this policy
Come on. The labour lead with people in work is 52:15. The labour lead with people in social grade DE & C2 is 42:22.
The Labour lead with people who are likely to have school age kids is 52:14.
Ha ha ha 😃
I’m talking about what is ABOUT to happen. I was first to tell you the election was on 4th July, now I am first to tell you Labours Education Death Tax is about to become the biggest story of this election and dramatically shift the polls.
You telling me I’m wrong?
Yes, I think you're wrong.
1) I don't think it's a net negative for Labour. They need something to keep the base onside, and it's a useful tax rise to point to whenever someone asks them how they will afford something (even if the sums don't add up)
2) I'm certain it won't have the breadth of impact that May's social care reform did. Social care will affect almost everyone. Only 7% of all kids go to private school. The policy has been around for months already and has barely caused a ripple - another distinction from social care reform, which was dropped into the manifesto at the last minute by May.
I think there is something in what @MoonRabbit is saying on this. For many people this is a tax on aspiration. It seems to be a way of appealing to the remaining Corbynites in its voting base. I don't think it is a 'dementia tax' catastrophe, but if you take for example Hastings and Rye it is a marginal seat between the tories and labour, the majority for the tories in 2017 was 346. There are a lot of people (across generations) with a personal interest in private education in the constituency who may be deterred by this policy.
Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times
This whole affair has really been quite weird. However it ends up just letting her doddle to an easy win and then be ignored for 4-5 years surely would have been easier without all this briefing and back and forth?
Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times
What about his policy on appointment to the Lords? No ex-MP can be a Lord until eight years or two parliaments have passed, whichever is longer.
That's my policy! If he's adopted it he is clearly taking sound advice .
Doesn’t sound like Labour want the Abbott story to go away, Team Starmer briefing are giving it fresh legs themselves! They are far too smug and confident about this to think Abbott can run again with Labour rosette.
Maybe it suits them. Everyone barking down one reasonably harmless rabbit hole, are not looking into others.
Which brings me to a rather easy prediction I can make. The first real pressure Labour are going to come under in this campaign is from their tax raid on private schools. I’m hearing that’s it’s coming up again and again and again in canvassing, and not necessarily in posh area’s either, and even from people who don’t have children, because they hope to and hope to send them to a private education not abandon them to the state sector, and Labours tax raid on private education is going to kill that ambition off for their family. Labour are in a mess over this policy, they are shitting votes over this one policy alone. Labour are about to come under immense pressure to do a hugely damaging u turn on it, once media and opponents smell blood how insanely unpopular it is on the doorsteps and not surviving first contact with voters 😄
I was educated in the state sector, and I said to my mum, why didn’t you send me to a private school with all the money you have? And she said it was a school with a very good reputation, so there was no need to spend money on a private education. Yep. That’s my mum.
Not sure where to start with this one.
The bit in bold - are you suggesting that Labour would be polling at over 50% if it weren't for this policy?
I think "even from people who don’t have children" was a hint that this is not to be taken at face value.
No take it at face value. Tax raid on private schools is dying a death on the doorsteps. Say in comparison with May’s Dementia Tax at this stage of 2017, all it needs now is for opposition and media (hint hint those of you reading this) to realise this and launch a pile on, and the polls will flip just on this one policy alone.
As I said up front, this is an easy prediction for me to make. Now we know from canvassing how badly this has gone down on the doorstep, Labour are in trouble over it. Labour are in trouble over it because they are stupid, this isn’t a clever money making wheeze and sop to Left wing, its voters from every level in society particularly working class who are furious with this policy, all it takes is a media pile on its unpopularity to make this election all about Labours school killing tax just like 2017 became all about Dementia Tax, and the polls will flip around.
Nick Palmer ex MP will back me up. Not many on here do more voter contact than he does, and he will be honest enough to tell you he has heard it over and over too. Even if he doesn’t admit I was first to inform him of Thangham’s defeat to the Greens two years ago!
particularly working class who are furious with this policy
Come on. The labour lead with people in work is 52:15. The labour lead with people in social grade DE & C2 is 42:22.
The Labour lead with people who are likely to have school age kids is 52:14.
You telling me I’m wrong?
Yes
You’ve made the error of thinking just because you, allegedly, pinned the election date in the right place that everything else you say is infallible or even remotely close to the donkey’s bottom. If we’re playing the ’told you so’ game, my prediction on here over 2 years ago of a Labour landslide was a lot bolder: I was almost alone on this forum and it was widely derided at the time. Lots of talk about ‘precedence’ and ’record swings'. Now almost everyone accepts at least the possibility. But foreseeing one outcome doesn’t mean I’m correct about anything else.
VAT on private schools is a good policy. We all recognise taxes need to be raised for better public services and we don’t see why wealthy people who choose to send their children to private schools should be exempt.
It has very little traction or interest for people. No one particularly minds about it.
Like most of this election campaign. It’s already over.
Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times
This whole affair has really been quite weird. However it ends up just letting her doddle to an easy win and then be ignored for 4-5 years surely would have been easier without all this briefing and back and forth?
Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times
What about his policy on appointment to the Lords? No ex-MP can be a Lord until eight years or two parliaments have passed, whichever is longer.
That's my policy! If he's adopted it he is clearly taking sound advice .
Doesn’t sound like Labour want the Abbott story to go away, Team Starmer briefing are giving it fresh legs themselves! They are far too smug and confident about this to think Abbott can run again with Labour rosette.
Maybe it suits them. Everyone barking down one reasonably harmless rabbit hole, are not looking into others.
Which brings me to a rather easy prediction I can make. The first real pressure Labour are going to come under in this campaign is from their tax raid on private schools. I’m hearing that’s it’s coming up again and again and again in canvassing, and not necessarily in posh area’s either, and even from people who don’t have children, because they hope to and hope to send them to a private education not abandon them to the state sector, and Labours tax raid on private education is going to kill that ambition off for their family. Labour are in a mess over this policy, they are shitting votes over this one policy alone. Labour are about to come under immense pressure to do a hugely damaging u turn on it, once media and opponents smell blood how insanely unpopular it is on the doorsteps and not surviving first contact with voters 😄
I was educated in the state sector, and I said to my mum, why didn’t you send me to a private school with all the money you have? And she said it was a school with a very good reputation, so there was no need to spend money on a private education. Yep. That’s my mum.
Not sure where to start with this one.
The bit in bold - are you suggesting that Labour would be polling at over 50% if it weren't for this policy?
I think "even from people who don’t have children" was a hint that this is not to be taken at face value.
No take it at face value. Tax raid on private schools is dying a death on the doorsteps. Say in comparison with May’s Dementia Tax at this stage of 2017, all it needs now is for opposition and media (hint hint those of you reading this) to realise this and launch a pile on, and the polls will flip just on this one policy alone.
As I said up front, this is an easy prediction for me to make. Now we know from canvassing how badly this has gone down on the doorstep, Labour are in trouble over it. Labour are in trouble over it because they are stupid, this isn’t a clever money making wheeze and sop to Left wing, its voters from every level in society particularly working class who are furious with this policy, all it takes is a media pile on its unpopularity to make this election all about Labours school killing tax just like 2017 became all about Dementia Tax, and the polls will flip around.
Nick Palmer ex MP will back me up. Not many on here do more voter contact than he does, and he will be honest enough to tell you he has heard it over and over too. Even if he doesn’t admit I was first to inform him of Thangham’s defeat to the Greens two years ago!
particularly working class who are furious with this policy
Come on. The labour lead with people in work is 52:15. The labour lead with people in social grade DE & C2 is 42:22.
The Labour lead with people who are likely to have school age kids is 52:14.
Ha ha ha 😃
I’m talking about what is ABOUT to happen. I was first to tell you the election was on 4th July, now I am first to tell you Labours Education Death Tax is about to become the biggest story of this election and dramatically shift the polls.
You telling me I’m wrong?
Yes, I think you're wrong.
1) I don't think it's a net negative for Labour. They need something to keep the base onside, and it's a useful tax rise to point to whenever someone asks them how they will afford something (even if the sums don't add up)
2) I'm certain it won't have the breadth of impact that May's social care reform did. Social care will affect almost everyone. Only 7% of all kids go to private school. The policy has been around for months already and has barely caused a ripple - another distinction from social care reform, which was dropped into the manifesto at the last minute by May.
I think there is something in what @MoonRabbit is saying on this. For many people this is a tax on aspiration. It seems to be a way of appealing to the remaining Corbynites in its voting base. I don't think it is a 'dementia tax' catastrophe, but if you take for example Hastings and Rye it is a marginal seat between the tories and labour, the majority for the tories in 2017 was 346. There are a lot of people (across generations) with a personal interest in private education in the constituency who may be deterred by this policy.
Another risk is if voters come to fear a tax on private education beyond private schools: tutors, after-school teaching and so on.
The most entertaining aspect of the Tories running a presidential campaign with Richi is, they think he is the best they've got.
They think he is so much better than the rest of the cabinet they can't risk anybody else on the stump.
Which is why they are 20 points behind and counting
Who in the cabinet is better than Rishi in your opinion?
That's an interesting question, because the answer is not 'who is better at their brief' the answer in this case is 'who can do a campaign stop without looking like a dick, who can talk to real voters without open contempt, who doesn't travel exclusively by private helicopter'. The answer might be 'all of them..."
Shapps. I'm not taking the piss - he's very good from what I've seen.
Since you have been discussing Diane Abbott, I looked at her Wikipedia entry -- and found this: "They had one son, James,[16][11][163] before divorcing in 1993.[3][11][164] Abbott chose her Conservative MP voting pair, Jonathan Aitken, as her son's godfather."
Which I found as surprising as learning, from her Wikipedia entry, that Kamala Harris is a member of a Baptist church: "Harris is a Baptist, holding membership of the Third Baptist Church of San Francisco, a congregation of the American Baptist Churches USA."
(Links omitted in both quotes.)
I am not sure what to make of either of those facts, but I find them fascinating.
Why did you find the fact regarding Diane Abbott and Jonathan Aitken surprising?
A fair few years back, there was a good program on radio 4 about cross-party friendships in the HoC. ISTR one was a left-wing Labour MP who was temporarily in a wheelchair. He was in corridor in the HoC with thick pile carpets, and he could not open the door. A Tory MP opened the door for him, and the Labour MP invited him into his office for a thankyou drink. The two became firm friends.
They should redo it now. Perhaps find SLab and SNP friendships, or Welsh Labour and PC, as well as the 'normal' Tory and Labour rivalries.
(On a similar note, I used to have a dear friend who was so left-wing he made Dennis Skinner look like Maggie Thatcher. It turned out that our broad views on how we wanted the country to look were quite similar, even if our views on how we got there were significantly different.)
Ange is Labour's not-so-secret weapon. Especially, but not only, up north, Ange will enthuse quite a lot of people to vote Labour in a way that Starmer won't. That shouldn't be underestimated.
I can't help but read the text of the tweet as an inflated Proclaimers song.
"But I would walk five thousand miles And I would walk five thousand more Just to be the man who walked a million Miles to fall down at your door"
He’d surely be walking 10,000 miles in that scenario, not a million?
Only wimps need to take a break in the middle.
Me and my GF sung that song at the top of our voices - except with "and I would walk 5,500 miles" - at the start of my coastal walk, as I headed down Leith Walk towards the sea. Whenever I hear it, I think of that day.
That. and trying to find a loo as we'd both drunk too much champagne at the start!
Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.
Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.
One of the primary schools in my village puts all the inset days into one week - which happens to be next week - so that parents can get a week's holiday during what is technically 'term-time'.
My son's school doesn't, and we also have an inset day tomorrow. I think many schools are, as Legoland's entry prices are higher than on the Sunday - £49 for tomorrow, compared to £44 today and £37 on Tuesday. Next Monday is £34. Unless some schools are having half term this week?
There are rumours from Russian milbloggers that a Russian column has been (ahem) damaged whilst heading towards Ukraine from Kursk. Whilst they were within Russia.
Allegedly, it was the classic hit-the-first-and-last-vehicles-then-have-fun-with-the-rest approach.
Good. Ukraine need to be able to hurt the Russians whilst they are forming up, and damage military infrastructure within Russia.
Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.
Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.
One of the primary schools in my village puts all the inset days into one week - which happens to be next week - so that parents can get a week's holiday during what is technically 'term-time'.
My son's school doesn't, and we also have an inset day tomorrow. I think many schools are, as Legoland's entry prices are higher than on the Sunday - £49 for tomorrow, compared to £44 today and £37 on Tuesday. Next Monday is £34. Unless some schools are having half term this week?
(What is the point of 'inset days'?)
Teacher training and (for the ones in September) planning for the upcoming year
Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.
One of the primary schools in my village puts all the inset days into one week - which happens to be next week - so that parents can get a week's holiday during what is technically 'term-time'.
My son's school doesn't, and we also have an inset day tomorrow. I think many schools are, as Legoland's entry prices are higher than on the Sunday - £49 for tomorrow, compared to £44 today and £37 on Tuesday. Next Monday is £34. Unless some schools are having half term this week?
(What is the point of 'inset days'?)
Staff training. It’s pretty tricky to do it when you have pupils in school.
All schools tend to have half term at the same week in the summer because of the exam timetables (GCSE, AS, A2)
There are rumours from Russian milbloggers that a Russian column has been (ahem) damaged whilst heading towards Ukraine from Kursk. Whilst they were within Russia.
Allegedly, it was the classic hit-the-first-and-last-vehicles-then-have-fun-with-the-rest approach.
Good. Ukraine need to be able to hurt the Russians whilst they are forming up, and damage military infrastructure within Russia.
Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.
Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.
One of the primary schools in my village puts all the inset days into one week - which happens to be next week - so that parents can get a week's holiday during what is technically 'term-time'.
My son's school doesn't, and we also have an inset day tomorrow. I think many schools are, as Legoland's entry prices are higher than on the Sunday - £49 for tomorrow, compared to £44 today and £37 on Tuesday. Next Monday is £34. Unless some schools are having half term this week?
(What is the point of 'inset days'?)
Teacher training and (for the ones in September) planning for the upcoming year
Why can this not be done outside termtime, when the kids are on holiday?
Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.
Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.
One of the primary schools in my village puts all the inset days into one week - which happens to be next week - so that parents can get a week's holiday during what is technically 'term-time'.
My son's school doesn't, and we also have an inset day tomorrow. I think many schools are, as Legoland's entry prices are higher than on the Sunday - £49 for tomorrow, compared to £44 today and £37 on Tuesday. Next Monday is £34. Unless some schools are having half term this week?
(What is the point of 'inset days'?)
Teacher training and (for the ones in September) planning for the upcoming year
Half term is always the week with late spring holiday at the start, it's the week with no exams in it, ie last week.
Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.
Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.
One of the primary schools in my village puts all the inset days into one week - which happens to be next week - so that parents can get a week's holiday during what is technically 'term-time'.
My son's school doesn't, and we also have an inset day tomorrow. I think many schools are, as Legoland's entry prices are higher than on the Sunday - £49 for tomorrow, compared to £44 today and £37 on Tuesday. Next Monday is £34. Unless some schools are having half term this week?
(What is the point of 'inset days'?)
Teacher training and (for the ones in September) planning for the upcoming year
Why can this not be done outside termtime, when the kids are on holiday?
They do.
Normally the first two Insets of the school year are before the pupils return and there’s often one at the start of January too.
It doesn’t really solve the point @Cleitophon was making though because someone still has to be around for the children.
I quite like well-trained teachers myself but hey ho
Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.
Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.
One of the primary schools in my village puts all the inset days into one week - which happens to be next week - so that parents can get a week's holiday during what is technically 'term-time'.
My son's school doesn't, and we also have an inset day tomorrow. I think many schools are, as Legoland's entry prices are higher than on the Sunday - £49 for tomorrow, compared to £44 today and £37 on Tuesday. Next Monday is £34. Unless some schools are having half term this week?
(What is the point of 'inset days'?)
Teacher training and (for the ones in September) planning for the upcoming year
Why can this not be done outside termtime, when the kids are on holiday?
They do.
Normally the first two Insets of the school year are before the pupils return and there’s often one at the start of January too.
It doesn’t really solve the point @Cleitophon was making though because someone still has to be around for the children.
I quite like well-trained teachers myself but hey ho
I teach at university, but we don't have awaydays in term... because...WE KNOW THAT IS WHEN TEACHING HAPPENS.
Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.
Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.
One of the primary schools in my village puts all the inset days into one week - which happens to be next week - so that parents can get a week's holiday during what is technically 'term-time'.
My son's school doesn't, and we also have an inset day tomorrow. I think many schools are, as Legoland's entry prices are higher than on the Sunday - £49 for tomorrow, compared to £44 today and £37 on Tuesday. Next Monday is £34. Unless some schools are having half term this week?
(What is the point of 'inset days'?)
Teacher training and (for the ones in September) planning for the upcoming year
Why can this not be done outside termtime, when the kids are on holiday?
They do.
Normally the first two Insets of the school year are before the pupils return and there’s often one at the start of January too.
It doesn’t really solve the point @Cleitophon was making though because someone still has to be around for the children.
I quite like well-trained teachers myself but hey ho
I quite like well-trained teachers as well. But why does it have to be done during term-time, with all the problems that causes for parents?
We're lucky, as I'm a stay-at-home dad, and having our son home is no issue for me. But some other parents find it really hard to cope with these days.
A good Head uses Inset days through the school year to sort out slips in staff standards, to ensure staff are up to speed on regulations, to cover important protocols such as discipline or medical emergencies (which DO happen) etc. Because you’ve got the whole staff there and they are focused, if you do them right they’re a really good way of raising standards.
Inset after-school and evenings are also sometimes used.
There’s a debate to be had about wellbeing and whether a goal of ‘economic productivity’ is really the only viable way of human existence but I’ll spare y’all that right now
Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.
Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.
One of the primary schools in my village puts all the inset days into one week - which happens to be next week - so that parents can get a week's holiday during what is technically 'term-time'.
My son's school doesn't, and we also have an inset day tomorrow. I think many schools are, as Legoland's entry prices are higher than on the Sunday - £49 for tomorrow, compared to £44 today and £37 on Tuesday. Next Monday is £34. Unless some schools are having half term this week?
(What is the point of 'inset days'?)
Teacher training and (for the ones in September) planning for the upcoming year
Why can this not be done outside termtime, when the kids are on holiday?
They were. When Kenneth Baker decreed they should happen, he took 5 days off the school holidays and made them INSET days. Hence the old name Baker Days. These INSET days aren't a surprise by the way, schools and councils publish these at least a year in advance. Perhaps parents need to plan babysitting a little better.
The anger with the Conservatives is increasing. Anecdotally based but I’m noticing it.
It’s as if the more they talk the more people are reminded about how godawful they (and it) have been.
I’m beginning to wonder if my Labour 185 majority is understated. I detect no signs of swingback. If anything, the opposite.
It's almost starting to get exciting, isn't it? I mean, I know I have rock bottom expectations of Labour, but the Conservatives so deserve to be properly wiped out. They might even lose around here, and this is serious blue rosette on a pig territory.
Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.
Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.
One of the primary schools in my village puts all the inset days into one week - which happens to be next week - so that parents can get a week's holiday during what is technically 'term-time'.
My son's school doesn't, and we also have an inset day tomorrow. I think many schools are, as Legoland's entry prices are higher than on the Sunday - £49 for tomorrow, compared to £44 today and £37 on Tuesday. Next Monday is £34. Unless some schools are having half term this week?
(What is the point of 'inset days'?)
Teacher training and (for the ones in September) planning for the upcoming year
Why can this not be done outside termtime, when the kids are on holiday?
They do.
Normally the first two Insets of the school year are before the pupils return and there’s often one at the start of January too.
It doesn’t really solve the point @Cleitophon was making though because someone still has to be around for the children.
I quite like well-trained teachers myself but hey ho
I teach at university, but we don't have awaydays in term... because...WE KNOW THAT IS WHEN TEACHING HAPPENS.
No need to shout. I too have taught at University and, as you know full well, student-staff contact time i.e. teaching is about 1/10th of what it is in a school. Teachers get very few ‘free’ periods in a given week. Uni staff get the opposite.
Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.
Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.
One of the primary schools in my village puts all the inset days into one week - which happens to be next week - so that parents can get a week's holiday during what is technically 'term-time'.
My son's school doesn't, and we also have an inset day tomorrow. I think many schools are, as Legoland's entry prices are higher than on the Sunday - £49 for tomorrow, compared to £44 today and £37 on Tuesday. Next Monday is £34. Unless some schools are having half term this week?
(What is the point of 'inset days'?)
Teacher training and (for the ones in September) planning for the upcoming year
Why can this not be done outside termtime, when the kids are on holiday?
Because It Has Always Been Done That Way.
Like many other ancient traditions, probably actually dates to a mistake by Whitehall in 1957.
Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.
Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.
One of the primary schools in my village puts all the inset days into one week - which happens to be next week - so that parents can get a week's holiday during what is technically 'term-time'.
My son's school doesn't, and we also have an inset day tomorrow. I think many schools are, as Legoland's entry prices are higher than on the Sunday - £49 for tomorrow, compared to £44 today and £37 on Tuesday. Next Monday is £34. Unless some schools are having half term this week?
(What is the point of 'inset days'?)
Teacher training and (for the ones in September) planning for the upcoming year
Why can this not be done outside termtime, when the kids are on holiday?
Because It Has Always Been Done That Way.
Like many other ancient traditions, probably actually dates to a mistake by Whitehall in 1957.
Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.
Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.
One of the primary schools in my village puts all the inset days into one week - which happens to be next week - so that parents can get a week's holiday during what is technically 'term-time'.
My son's school doesn't, and we also have an inset day tomorrow. I think many schools are, as Legoland's entry prices are higher than on the Sunday - £49 for tomorrow, compared to £44 today and £37 on Tuesday. Next Monday is £34. Unless some schools are having half term this week?
(What is the point of 'inset days'?)
Teacher training and (for the ones in September) planning for the upcoming year
Why can this not be done outside termtime, when the kids are on holiday?
Because It Has Always Been Done That Way.
Like many other ancient traditions, probably actually dates to a mistake by Whitehall in 1957.
This isn’t aimed at you, you just happen to have pitched in on something I’ve been discussing a lot with friends recently.
It’s the trend to lash out at others, sometimes (often) through ignorance. It has been on the increase of late and, yes, I really do in part blame this Gov’t for it. They seem incapable of making any announcement, even a good one, without first taking a swipe at some group or sector. So a sensible policy about apprenticeships is couched in language about ‘Mickey Mouse’ degrees. A policy on Natty service is about ‘getting kids off their smartphones.’
Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times
This whole affair has really been quite weird. However it ends up just letting her doddle to an easy win and then be ignored for 4-5 years surely would have been easier without all this briefing and back and forth?
Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times
What about his policy on appointment to the Lords? No ex-MP can be a Lord until eight years or two parliaments have passed, whichever is longer.
That's my policy! If he's adopted it he is clearly taking sound advice .
Doesn’t sound like Labour want the Abbott story to go away, Team Starmer briefing are giving it fresh legs themselves! They are far too smug and confident about this to think Abbott can run again with Labour rosette.
Maybe it suits them. Everyone barking down one reasonably harmless rabbit hole, are not looking into others.
Which brings me to a rather easy prediction I can make. The first real pressure Labour are going to come under in this campaign is from their tax raid on private schools. I’m hearing that’s it’s coming up again and again and again in canvassing, and not necessarily in posh area’s either, and even from people who don’t have children, because they hope to and hope to send them to a private education not abandon them to the state sector, and Labours tax raid on private education is going to kill that ambition off for their family. Labour are in a mess over this policy, they are shitting votes over this one policy alone. Labour are about to come under immense pressure to do a hugely damaging u turn on it, once media and opponents smell blood how insanely unpopular it is on the doorsteps and not surviving first contact with voters 😄
I was educated in the state sector, and I said to my mum, why didn’t you send me to a private school with all the money you have? And she said it was a school with a very good reputation, so there was no need to spend money on a private education. Yep. That’s my mum.
Not sure where to start with this one.
The bit in bold - are you suggesting that Labour would be polling at over 50% if it weren't for this policy?
I think "even from people who don’t have children" was a hint that this is not to be taken at face value.
No take it at face value. Tax raid on private schools is dying a death on the doorsteps. Say in comparison with May’s Dementia Tax at this stage of 2017, all it needs now is for opposition and media (hint hint those of you reading this) to realise this and launch a pile on, and the polls will flip just on this one policy alone.
As I said up front, this is an easy prediction for me to make. Now we know from canvassing how badly this has gone down on the doorstep, Labour are in trouble over it. Labour are in trouble over it because they are stupid, this isn’t a clever money making wheeze and sop to Left wing, its voters from every level in society particularly working class who are furious with this policy, all it takes is a media pile on its unpopularity to make this election all about Labours school killing tax just like 2017 became all about Dementia Tax, and the polls will flip around.
Nick Palmer ex MP will back me up. Not many on here do more voter contact than he does, and he will be honest enough to tell you he has heard it over and over too. Even if he doesn’t admit I was first to inform him of Thangham’s defeat to the Greens two years ago!
particularly working class who are furious with this policy
Come on. The labour lead with people in work is 52:15. The labour lead with people in social grade DE & C2 is 42:22.
The Labour lead with people who are likely to have school age kids is 52:14.
Ha ha ha 😃
I’m talking about what is ABOUT to happen. I was first to tell you the election was on 4th July, now I am first to tell you Labours Education Death Tax is about to become the biggest story of this election and dramatically shift the polls.
You telling me I’m wrong?
Yes, I think you're wrong.
1) I don't think it's a net negative for Labour. They need something to keep the base onside, and it's a useful tax rise to point to whenever someone asks them how they will afford something (even if the sums don't add up)
2) I'm certain it won't have the breadth of impact that May's social care reform did. Social care will affect almost everyone. Only 7% of all kids go to private school. The policy has been around for months already and has barely caused a ripple - another distinction from social care reform, which was dropped into the manifesto at the last minute by May.
I think there is something in what @MoonRabbit is saying on this. For many people this is a tax on aspiration. It seems to be a way of appealing to the remaining Corbynites in its voting base. I don't think it is a 'dementia tax' catastrophe, but if you take for example Hastings and Rye it is a marginal seat between the tories and labour, the majority for the tories in 2017 was 346. There are a lot of people (across generations) with a personal interest in private education in the constituency who may be deterred by this policy.
Another risk is if voters come to fear a tax on private education beyond private schools: tutors, after-school teaching and so on.
If they go after tutors, the students and many teachers will riot. It is very, very profitable work.
Apparently VAT on private schools is going to “dramatically shift the polls”
Hopium at its finest.
Why should it shift the polls, as it's already known to be Labour policy, and has already been a focus of attention in the campaign?
The next thing to look at in terms of "shifting the polls" (if that's going to happen at all) is what happens in the leader debates and what, if any, attention the electorate pays to them. If Sunak has a couple of bad performances then the Tories could conceivably go the way of the Liberal Democrats in 2015. Though I suppose at least that would save him the trouble of having to resign his seat before emigrating to California.
Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times
This whole affair has really been quite weird. However it ends up just letting her doddle to an easy win and then be ignored for 4-5 years surely would have been easier without all this briefing and back and forth?
Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times
What about his policy on appointment to the Lords? No ex-MP can be a Lord until eight years or two parliaments have passed, whichever is longer.
That's my policy! If he's adopted it he is clearly taking sound advice .
Doesn’t sound like Labour want the Abbott story to go away, Team Starmer briefing are giving it fresh legs themselves! They are far too smug and confident about this to think Abbott can run again with Labour rosette.
Maybe it suits them. Everyone barking down one reasonably harmless rabbit hole, are not looking into others.
Which brings me to a rather easy prediction I can make. The first real pressure Labour are going to come under in this campaign is from their tax raid on private schools. I’m hearing that’s it’s coming up again and again and again in canvassing, and not necessarily in posh area’s either, and even from people who don’t have children, because they hope to and hope to send them to a private education not abandon them to the state sector, and Labours tax raid on private education is going to kill that ambition off for their family. Labour are in a mess over this policy, they are shitting votes over this one policy alone. Labour are about to come under immense pressure to do a hugely damaging u turn on it, once media and opponents smell blood how insanely unpopular it is on the doorsteps and not surviving first contact with voters 😄
I was educated in the state sector, and I said to my mum, why didn’t you send me to a private school with all the money you have? And she said it was a school with a very good reputation, so there was no need to spend money on a private education. Yep. That’s my mum.
Not sure where to start with this one.
The bit in bold - are you suggesting that Labour would be polling at over 50% if it weren't for this policy?
I think "even from people who don’t have children" was a hint that this is not to be taken at face value.
No take it at face value. Tax raid on private schools is dying a death on the doorsteps. Say in comparison with May’s Dementia Tax at this stage of 2017, all it needs now is for opposition and media (hint hint those of you reading this) to realise this and launch a pile on, and the polls will flip just on this one policy alone.
As I said up front, this is an easy prediction for me to make. Now we know from canvassing how badly this has gone down on the doorstep, Labour are in trouble over it. Labour are in trouble over it because they are stupid, this isn’t a clever money making wheeze and sop to Left wing, its voters from every level in society particularly working class who are furious with this policy, all it takes is a media pile on its unpopularity to make this election all about Labours school killing tax just like 2017 became all about Dementia Tax, and the polls will flip around.
Nick Palmer ex MP will back me up. Not many on here do more voter contact than he does, and he will be honest enough to tell you he has heard it over and over too. Even if he doesn’t admit I was first to inform him of Thangham’s defeat to the Greens two years ago!
particularly working class who are furious with this policy
Come on. The labour lead with people in work is 52:15. The labour lead with people in social grade DE & C2 is 42:22.
The Labour lead with people who are likely to have school age kids is 52:14.
Ha ha ha 😃
I’m talking about what is ABOUT to happen. I was first to tell you the election was on 4th July, now I am first to tell you Labours Education Death Tax is about to become the biggest story of this election and dramatically shift the polls.
You telling me I’m wrong?
Yes, I think you're wrong.
1) I don't think it's a net negative for Labour. They need something to keep the base onside, and it's a useful tax rise to point to whenever someone asks them how they will afford something (even if the sums don't add up)
2) I'm certain it won't have the breadth of impact that May's social care reform did. Social care will affect almost everyone. Only 7% of all kids go to private school. The policy has been around for months already and has barely caused a ripple - another distinction from social care reform, which was dropped into the manifesto at the last minute by May.
I think there is something in what @MoonRabbit is saying on this. For many people this is a tax on aspiration. It seems to be a way of appealing to the remaining Corbynites in its voting base. I don't think it is a 'dementia tax' catastrophe, but if you take for example Hastings and Rye it is a marginal seat between the tories and labour, the majority for the tories in 2017 was 346. There are a lot of people (across generations) with a personal interest in private education in the constituency who may be deterred by this policy.
Another risk is if voters come to fear a tax on private education beyond private schools: tutors, after-school teaching and so on.
If they go after tutors, the students and many teachers will riot. It is very, very profitable work.
Putting VAT on cramming lesson to pass the 11 plus is not going to reduce the number of parents who are going to pay for cramming lessons to get their children into Alcester Grammar school.
Much of this work is a tax free cash hobble anyway and if teachers do put their work through the books they would not turnover enough to be VAT registered. So no riots!
Comments
@SkyNews
Leader of the Workers Party of Britain, George Galloway, has launched his party's general election campaign, saying the party is "four times bigger than it was 100 days ago".
Quick anecdote - even in Edinburgh, some people are whispering about Reform online. If you hate all the new cycle lanes, LEZ, gentrification, soy lattes, immigration, student housing, but the idea of voting Conservative is anathema to you, they are an obvious option. And this is where Farage not standing is important - without him, you can project whatever values you want on the party.
I'm not suggesting that Reform will get any more than a few hundred votes in any Edinburgh seat. But that's a few hundred that would typically be Tartan Tories or just Tories.
https://news.sky.com/story/tories-pledge-20m-for-30-towns-as-labour-embarks-on-power-up-bus-tour-13146228
https://x.com/KemiBadenoch/status/1796531574252744978
@KemiBadenoch
·
May 31
Labour’s Shadow Minister for Equalities said someone can identify as a llama or animal and deserve respect if they do.
These people could be in charge of what your child is taught at school.
@TomRHickman - What is the point of legal rights if the system requires you to compromise them because they are too expensive to litigate?
@yuanyi_z
What does it mean to have world-leading’ courts if they are increasingly giving up hearing ordinary cases involving ordinary people? My law column for @TheCriticMag. thecritic.co.uk/what-price-j…
https://thecritic.co.uk/what-price-justice/
I'm trying to pay me mate for petrol money that gets me to work.
I assume this is some sort of attempt to prove everyone claiming UC is cheating the system somehow.*
* That may not be the case. But that I, and my mate automatically think it is is an example of how the Tory Party is regarded.
We're all fucking cheats, so of course you are too.
Dignified.
Incorruptible.
I don't think in the context of it being posted on his account that it's fraudulent in spirit but what the flying fuck is he doing
Typical non entity thinking people are voting for him rather than the rosette (or not)
- The upcoming death bulge as the boomers go into the dark
- Bankrupt councils
- Nonfunctioning justice system
- Nonfunctioning armed forces
- Insufficient prison places
- Massive government debt
- Our children cannot buy houses
- We import 500-1,000K people per annum to take up the slack
Meanwhile our lords and masters fuck around. My anger at the Conservatives is increasingly matched by my despair at Labour in simply ignoring the problems. I don't care if the election is won by Reform, the Greens, or Plaid effing Cymru. But somebody, somewhere, has to kick the arse of these overpaid overlords so they start bailing out the leaking boat.I have not been so angry and despairing simultaneously at an election ever. It's not an election process, it's a CFIT for cosplaying politicians who like talking hard but couldn't wipe their own arse. They are just awful.
I'm not massively optimistic.
People like me think she'd be awesome. And totally get shitposting.
You normies with your "social life" and "personal hygeine" just don't understand us.
Sadly I also have to make money on political gambling (and also more fundamentally get laid) so I can emulate you to fit in. So can Kemi. But occasionally the mask slips. And it leads to deranged social media rants that MAKE PERFECT SENSE.
Trust us, we're perfectly mentally healthy.
Once labour also do nearly as badly we kick them in face also. Pour encourager les trots, as it were. At that point have to deal with the land how it lies. Expecting things to get better in governance atm is a pipedream so forget about it. Just be prepared.
Which I found as surprising as learning, from her Wikipedia entry, that Kamala Harris is a member of a Baptist church: "Harris is a Baptist, holding membership of the Third Baptist Church of San Francisco, a congregation of the American Baptist Churches USA."
(Links omitted in both quotes.)
I am not sure what to make of either of those facts, but I find them fascinating.
We need to plug the holes. Or a new boat.
I should think they will be vague, and it is not worth wasting time on wholesale reform (though I've suggested before several quick and easy options if they want), but promising review and possibly some action is probably going to be in there. It may depend on whether they say they will do something, or will seek to do something.
Based on language in the previous manifestos they may choose not to be as specific as last time, but there's a good chance they stick with the 'Senate of the Nations and Regions' again.
The 2019 manifesto stated:
We will act immediately to end the hereditary principle in the House of Lords, and work to abolish the House of Lords in favour of Labour’s preferred option of an elected Senate of the Nations and Regions, but we also believe that the people must be central to historic political changes.
The 2017 manifesto stated:
Our fundamental belief is that the Second Chamber should be democratically elected. In the interim period, we will seek to end the hereditary principle and reduce the size of the current House of Lords as part of a wider package of constitutional reform to address the growing democratic deficit across Britain.
The 2015 manifesto stated:
Labour is committed to replacing the House of Lords with an elected Senate of the Nations and Regions, to represent every part of the United Kingdom, and to improve the democratic legitimacy of the second chamber.
The 2010 manifesto stated:
To begin the task of building a new politics, we will let the British people decide on whether to make Parliamentmore democratic and accountable in referenda on reform of the House of Commons and House of Lords, to be held on the same day, by October 2011...We will ensure that the hereditary principle is removed from the House of Lords. Further democratic reform to create a fully elected Second Chamber will then be achieved in stages. At the end of the next Parliament one third of the House of Lords will be elected;
a further one third of members will be elected at the general election after that. Until the final stage, the representation of all groups should be maintained in equal proportions to now.
We will consult widely on these proposals, and on an open-list proportional representation electoral system for the Second Chamber, before putting them to the people in a referendum
Will continue to happen
(I just realised this was likely your point. It's after midnight on a Saturday. You know what I'm saying)
And to be fair to JL, go back couple of thread headers and they are in right column next to Opinum in not giving snapshot like all other firms, but a projected share after swingback. I don’t think those projected polls should be in poll of polls with snapshot ones. When it came out, it wasn’t just HY treating it as something other than a manipulated projective poll. It got Fawkes and greasy Harry and every Tory in the land hopes up. Cruel.
And you gov isn’t worth the time of day after their London mare. Yougov were more than 10% out whilst at same time rival Redfield were spot on. they too should not be included into any poll of polls imo. In their office it must be sad if they feeling their method has gone wrong and worrying about it. Isn’t it something like not sampling new people, but an existing database that can have become unrepresentative? ☹️ sad
Maybe it suits them. Everyone barking down one reasonably harmless rabbit hole, are not looking into others.
Which brings me to a rather easy prediction I can make. The first real pressure Labour are going to come under in this campaign is from their tax raid on private schools. I’m hearing that’s it’s coming up again and again and again in canvassing, and not necessarily in posh area’s either, and even from people who don’t have children, because they hope to and hope to send them to a private education not abandon them to the state sector, and Labours tax raid on private education is going to kill that ambition off for their family. Labour are in a mess over this policy, they are shitting votes over this one policy alone. Labour are about to come under immense pressure to do a hugely damaging u turn on it, once media and opponents smell blood how insanely unpopular it is on the doorsteps and not surviving first contact with voters 😄
I was educated in the state sector, and I said to my mum, why didn’t you send me to a private school with all the money you have? And she said it was a school with a very good reputation, so there was no need to spend money on a private education. Yep. That’s my mum.
The bit in bold - are you suggesting that Labour would be polling at over 50% if it weren't for this policy?
It can only be done once they can replace it with something that doesn’t replicate what the House of Commons brings to parliament, and nor is a quango too easily bent towards whoever controls the commons. Labour hasn’t a clue what they can replace it with that ticks all the boxes, and until that point they can’t act on it. I’m 27, and if I live another 50 years HoL will still be there just as it is now… except maybe a name change among other minor tweaks, which allows someone some point to say “told you we’d do it. Look. It’s gone!”
As I said up front, this is an easy prediction for me to make. Now we know from canvassing how badly this has gone down on the doorstep, Labour are in trouble over it. Labour are in trouble over it because they are stupid, this isn’t a clever money making wheeze and sop to Left wing, its voters from every level in society particularly working class who are furious with this policy, all it takes is a media pile on its unpopularity to make this election all about Labours school killing tax just like 2017 became all about Dementia Tax, and the polls will flip around.
Nick Palmer ex MP will back me up. Not many on here do more voter contact than he does, and he will be honest enough to tell you he has heard it over and over too. Even if he doesn’t admit I was first to inform him of Thangham’s defeat to the Greens two years ago!
Just insane.
Come on. The labour lead with people in work is 52:15. The labour lead with people in social grade DE & C2 is 42:22.
The Labour lead with people who are likely to have school age kids is 52:14.
I understand when Labour canvassers hear dislike of this policy on the doorsteps, they havn’t a clue how to reply, and stick their head straight into the ground like an Ostrich. 😂
It’s anti aspirational. It’s so dumb this policy made the manifesto. It’s left the Labour campaign as a sitting duck ready to be shot down.
I’m talking about what is ABOUT to happen. I was first to tell you the election was on 4th July, now I am first to tell you Labours Education Death Tax is about to become the biggest story of this election and dramatically shift the polls.
You telling me I’m wrong?
I assume that Labour have focus grouped this to death as it's the only thing they have decided to keep from Keir's 2020 leadership pledges. If they thought the net effect was bad then Starmer would have dropped it a couple of years ago. It is perfectly possible that Moon is 100% correct but the policy still benefits the Labour campaign nationally. So the question is, has Labour made a mistake? We already know they aren't perfect but they have more data than Moon or Nick will have.
They have been caught by surprise on this one. This (what’s about to happen) is the sort of unforeseen shit storm that happens at elections.
Will it mean 20% leads end up in a hung Parliament like 2017? Maybe.
1) I don't think it's a net negative for Labour. They need something to keep the base onside, and it's a useful tax rise to point to whenever someone asks them how they will afford something (even if the sums don't add up)
2) I'm certain it won't have the breadth of impact that May's social care reform did. Social care will affect almost everyone. Only 7% of all kids go to private school. The policy has been around for months already and has barely caused a ripple - another distinction from social care reform, which was dropped into the manifesto at the last minute by May.
We’ve been here before. 🤣
How come I always know what’s about to happen in politics before everyone else? I knew Sunak was calling an election for 4th July even before he did!
Greatest political analyst ever 😇
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/01/general-election-latest-starmer-labour-sunak/ (£££)
RefUK well ahead of Tories but behind Labour on TikTok. Lab & Con joined TikTok after the election was called, which might be further evidence that Rishi caught his own party off-guard when calling a July election. LibDems barely trouble the judges.
RefUK has the most liked posts on Facebook, where Lab & Con have been buying adverts.
You’ve made the error of thinking just because you, allegedly, pinned the election date in the right place that everything else you say is infallible or even remotely close to the donkey’s bottom. If we’re playing the ’told you so’ game, my prediction on here over 2 years ago of a Labour landslide was a lot bolder: I was almost alone on this forum and it was widely derided at the time. Lots of talk about ‘precedence’ and ’record swings'. Now almost everyone accepts at least the possibility. But foreseeing one outcome doesn’t mean I’m correct about anything else.
VAT on private schools is a good policy. We all recognise taxes need to be raised for better public services and we don’t see why wealthy people who choose to send their children to private schools should be exempt.
It has very little traction or interest for people. No one particularly minds about it.
Like most of this election campaign. It’s already over.
4 weeks Thursday. Postal votes soon.
The anger with the Conservatives is increasing. Anecdotally based but I’m noticing it.
It’s as if the more they talk the more people are reminded about how godawful they (and it) have been.
I’m beginning to wonder if my Labour 185 majority is understated. I detect no signs of swingback. If anything, the opposite.
They should redo it now. Perhaps find SLab and SNP friendships, or Welsh Labour and PC, as well as the 'normal' Tory and Labour rivalries.
(On a similar note, I used to have a dear friend who was so left-wing he made Dennis Skinner look like Maggie Thatcher. It turned out that our broad views on how we wanted the country to look were quite similar, even if our views on how we got there were significantly different.)
That. and trying to find a loo as we'd both drunk too much champagne at the start!
My son's school doesn't, and we also have an inset day tomorrow. I think many schools are, as Legoland's entry prices are higher than on the Sunday - £49 for tomorrow, compared to £44 today and £37 on Tuesday. Next Monday is £34. Unless some schools are having half term this week?
(What is the point of 'inset days'?)
Hopium at its finest.
Allegedly, it was the classic hit-the-first-and-last-vehicles-then-have-fun-with-the-rest approach.
Good. Ukraine need to be able to hurt the Russians whilst they are forming up, and damage military infrastructure within Russia.
Others may differ.
All schools tend to have half term at the same week in the summer because of the exam timetables (GCSE, AS, A2)
IIRC @Dura_Ace informed us that they only do that in Warhammer.
They really must be sending a lot of cash to Ukraine if they can afford the miniatures.
Normally the first two Insets of the school year are before the pupils return and there’s often one at the start of January too.
It doesn’t really solve the point @Cleitophon was making though because someone still has to be around for the children.
I quite like well-trained teachers myself but hey ho
We're lucky, as I'm a stay-at-home dad, and having our son home is no issue for me. But some other parents find it really hard to cope with these days.
Inset after-school and evenings are also sometimes used.
There’s a debate to be had about wellbeing and whether a goal of ‘economic productivity’ is really the only viable way of human existence but I’ll spare y’all that right now
Not the best response therefore.
Like many other ancient traditions, probably actually dates to a mistake by Whitehall in 1957.
It’s the trend to lash out at others, sometimes (often) through ignorance. It has been on the increase of late and, yes, I really do in part blame this Gov’t for it. They seem incapable of making any announcement, even a good one, without first taking a swipe at some group or sector. So a sensible policy about apprenticeships is couched in language about ‘Mickey Mouse’ degrees. A policy on Natty service is about ‘getting kids off their smartphones.’
They just can’t help themselves from being Nasty.
It wouldn't even be the craziest thing they've done so far.
Much of this work is a tax free cash hobble anyway and if teachers do put their work through the books they would not turnover enough to be VAT registered. So no riots!