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Tonight’s polls – politicalbetting.com

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  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,837
    Eabhal said:

    Chris said:

    Apparently VAT on private schools is going to “dramatically shift the polls”

    Hopium at its finest.

    Why should it shift the polls, as it's already known to be Labour policy, and has already been a focus of attention in the campaign?
    Unless the Conservatives make it their primary campaign issue over the next 4 weeks, talk about it in the debates, FB ads and so on.

    It wouldn't even be the craziest thing they've done so far.
    I think they already fired their main weapon with the Quadruple Lock, apparently to no effect. They might decide to follow that up by promising to scrap inheritance tax but, whilst it's unpopular, the thresholds are now so high that only a small number of very rich families will benefit.

    The Tories have no cards left to play. If they can't find a way to make the electorate afraid of Labour, they're toast.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    pigeon said:

    Chris said:

    Apparently VAT on private schools is going to “dramatically shift the polls”

    Hopium at its finest.

    Why should it shift the polls, as it's already known to be Labour policy, and has already been a focus of attention in the campaign?
    The next thing to look at in terms of "shifting the polls" (if that's going to happen at all) is what happens in the leader debates and what, if any, attention the electorate pays to them. If Sunak has a couple of bad performances then the Tories could conceivably go the way of the Liberal Democrats in 2015. Though I suppose at least that would save him the trouble of having to resign his seat before emigrating to California.
    Totally agree although I’d amend your word ‘next’ to ‘only’

    The debates are a concern for me because Sunak probably has nothing to lose, although you never know with this lot.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627
    edited June 2
    Chris said:

    Apparently VAT on private schools is going to “dramatically shift the polls”

    Hopium at its finest.

    Why should it shift the polls, as it's already known to be Labour policy, and has already been a focus of attention in the campaign?
    It's a policy that the Tories need to be very careful with, even if it does make a difference to some voters.

    1) It is not LD policy, and particularly in areas with lots of private schools in the south it could shift anti-Tory votes to LD from Labour.

    2) A significant percentage of the population thinks private education is socially divisive and a bad thing entirely. This isn't just Corbynites. It contradicts the idea of Nashy Serves to get kids from different walks of life mixing.

    3) It puts the spotlight on the meme of Sunak's own wealth and privilege, and inability to relate to ordinary people.

    I really can't see it shifting polls now, and postal ballots go out in a week or so time, many being returned immediately.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,747
    Eabhal said:

    Chris said:

    Apparently VAT on private schools is going to “dramatically shift the polls”

    Hopium at its finest.

    Why should it shift the polls, as it's already known to be Labour policy, and has already been a focus of attention in the campaign?
    Unless the Conservatives make it their primary campaign issue over the next 4 weeks, talk about it in the debates, FB ads and so on.

    It wouldn't even be the craziest thing they've done so far.
    It may fit in with the strategy of trying to get a few percent of votes back from Reform, but given the small percentage of privately educated children and their demographics, I can't see it doing much to a Labour lead of 20% or so.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,212

    ...

    a

    darkage said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    EPG said:

    Eabhal said:

    kle4 said:

    carnforth said:

    Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times

    This whole affair has really been quite weird. However it ends up just letting her doddle to an easy win and then be ignored for 4-5 years surely would have been easier without all this briefing and back and forth?
    RobD said:

    carnforth said:

    Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times

    What about his policy on appointment to the Lords? No ex-MP can be a Lord until eight years or two parliaments have passed, whichever is longer.
    That's my policy! If he's adopted it he is clearly taking sound advice :).
    Doesn’t sound like Labour want the Abbott story to go away, Team Starmer briefing are giving it fresh legs themselves! They are far too smug and confident about this to think Abbott can run again with Labour rosette.

    Maybe it suits them. Everyone barking down one reasonably harmless rabbit hole, are not looking into others.

    Which brings me to a rather easy prediction I can make. The first real pressure Labour are going to come under in this campaign is from their tax raid on private schools. I’m hearing that’s it’s coming up again and again and again in canvassing, and not necessarily in posh area’s either, and even from people who don’t have children, because they hope to and hope to send them to a private education not abandon them to the state sector, and Labours tax raid on private education is going to kill that ambition off for their family. Labour are in a mess over this policy, they are shitting votes over this one policy alone. Labour are about to come under immense pressure to do a hugely damaging u turn on it, once media and opponents smell blood how insanely unpopular it is on the doorsteps and not surviving first contact with voters 😄

    I was educated in the state sector, and I said to my mum, why didn’t you send me to a private school with all the money you have? And she said it was a school with a very good reputation, so there was no need to spend money on a private education. Yep. That’s my mum.
    Not sure where to start with this one.

    The bit in bold - are you suggesting that Labour would be polling at over 50% if it weren't for this policy?
    I think "even from people who don’t have children" was a hint that this is not to be taken at face value.
    No take it at face value. Tax raid on private schools is dying a death on the doorsteps. Say in comparison with May’s Dementia Tax at this stage of 2017, all it needs now is for opposition and media (hint hint those of you reading this) to realise this and launch a pile on, and the polls will flip just on this one policy alone.

    As I said up front, this is an easy prediction for me to make. Now we know from canvassing how badly this has gone down on the doorstep, Labour are in trouble over it. Labour are in trouble over it because they are stupid, this isn’t a clever money making wheeze and sop to Left wing, its voters from every level in society particularly working class who are furious with this policy, all it takes is a media pile on its unpopularity to make this election all about Labours school killing tax just like 2017 became all about Dementia Tax, and the polls will flip around.

    Nick Palmer ex MP will back me up. Not many on here do more voter contact than he does, and he will be honest enough to tell you he has heard it over and over too. Even if he doesn’t admit I was first to inform him of Thangham’s defeat to the Greens two years ago!
    particularly working class who are furious with this policy

    Come on. The labour lead with people in work is 52:15. The labour lead with people in social grade DE & C2 is 42:22.

    The Labour lead with people who are likely to have school age kids is 52:14.
    Ha ha ha 😃

    I’m talking about what is ABOUT to happen. I was first to tell you the election was on 4th July, now I am first to tell you Labours Education Death Tax is about to become the biggest story of this election and dramatically shift the polls.

    You telling me I’m wrong?
    Yes, I think you're wrong.

    1) I don't think it's a net negative for Labour. They need something to keep the base onside, and it's a useful tax rise to point to whenever someone asks them how they will afford something (even if the sums don't add up)

    2) I'm certain it won't have the breadth of impact that May's social care reform did. Social care will affect almost everyone. Only 7% of all kids go to private school. The policy has been around for months already and has barely caused a ripple - another distinction from social care reform, which was dropped into the manifesto at the last minute by May.
    I think there is something in what @MoonRabbit is saying on this. For many people this is a tax on aspiration. It seems to be a way of appealing to the remaining Corbynites in its voting base. I don't think it is a 'dementia tax' catastrophe, but if you take for example Hastings and Rye it is a marginal seat between the tories and labour, the majority for the tories in 2017 was 346. There are a lot of people (across generations) with a personal interest in private education in the constituency who may be deterred by this policy.
    Another risk is if voters come to fear a tax on private education beyond private schools: tutors, after-school teaching and so on.
    If they go after tutors, the students and many teachers will riot. It is very, very profitable work.
    Putting VAT on cramming lesson to pass the 11 plus is not going to reduce the number of parents who are going to pay for cramming lessons to get their children into Alcester Grammar school.

    Much of this work is a tax free cash hobble anyway and if teachers do put their work through the books they would not turnover enough to be VAT registered. So no riots!
    Just getting the tutors to pay tax would be an interesting exercise.

    To give some context - I know of one teacher who is doing 10 hours of tuition a week. At £75 an hour.

    EDIT: don’t know about 11 plus - but the market for GCSE and A level tutoring is red hot.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Morning all, more hotel bed nonsense from me. What a decidedly dull super polling Saturday with just the opinion of Opinium. Starting to edge towards best case for blues being lose by 13 to 15 and just beat 97s seat tally, but im still not fully convinced we havent reached the breaking point of online panels. Last chance saloons in this no horse town are manifestos and then the phone polls from 3 weeks out coming on stream diverging from onlines.
    That narrow path is very narrow innit? Narrow and not worth the trek.
    Here are my latest 'Labour losers' musings
    Were you up for Shabhana?
    Were you up for Wes?
    Were you up for Jess?
    At least one of those shall manifest in glorious technicolour.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,643
    Chris said:

    Eabhal said:

    Chris said:

    Apparently VAT on private schools is going to “dramatically shift the polls”

    Hopium at its finest.

    Why should it shift the polls, as it's already known to be Labour policy, and has already been a focus of attention in the campaign?
    Unless the Conservatives make it their primary campaign issue over the next 4 weeks, talk about it in the debates, FB ads and so on.

    It wouldn't even be the craziest thing they've done so far.
    It may fit in with the strategy of trying to get a few percent of votes back from Reform, but given the small percentage of privately educated children and their demographics, I can't see it doing much to a Labour lead of 20% or so.
    Reform voters, like Conservative voters, are more likely to be social grades C1, C2, and DE, and to have lower education levels.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Heathener said:

    Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.

    Most people just use them a way to ext

    Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.

    One of the primary schools in my village puts all the inset days into one week - which happens to be next week - so that parents can get a week's holiday during what is technically 'term-time'.

    My son's school doesn't, and we also have an inset day tomorrow. I think many schools are, as Legoland's entry prices are higher than on the Sunday - £49 for tomorrow, compared to £44 today and £37 on Tuesday. Next Monday is £34. Unless some schools are having half term this week?

    (What is the point of 'inset days'?)
    Teacher training and (for the ones in September) planning for the upcoming year
    Why can this not be done outside termtime, when the kids are on holiday? ;)
    Because It Has Always Been Done That Way.

    Like many other ancient traditions, probably actually dates to a mistake by Whitehall in 1957.
    This isn’t aimed at you, you just happen to have pitched in on something I’ve been discussing a lot with friends recently.

    It’s the trend to lash out at others, sometimes (often) through ignorance. It has been on the increase of late and, yes, I really do in part blame this Gov’t for it. They seem incapable of making any announcement, even a good one, without first taking a swipe at some group or sector. So a sensible policy about apprenticeships is couched in language about ‘Mickey Mouse’ degrees. A policy on Natty service is about ‘getting kids off their smartphones.’

    They just can’t help themselves from being Nasty.
    Well those partisan blinkers you have ought to be taken off.

    Things aren’t nasty, with or without the telling capitalisation, just because you don’t like them. Political parties frame their arguments in ways that they think will help them. Not everyone will be responsive to the framing, that’s fine.

    The government is clearly in political trouble and they are responsible for the mess they created, but that isn’t license to load them up with responsibility they should not bear. This government didn’t invent lashing out as you put it, it is part and parcel of politics. It shouldn’t be but it is human nature and all sides indulge in it. In fact the process of trying to intimate that one side is solely virtuous whilst all vice pertains to the other is very much of a piece with this.

    One of Labour’s signature policies this election is one that is entirely motivated by envy and spite, and lashing out at those deemed socially undeserving. The behaviour is not restricted to one side of this. The Conservative Party is spent so their vices are more plainly visible, their virtues are largely overshadowed. Labour has virtues and vices too and in equal measure, but their vices are currently discounted because of the stage of the electoral cycle. In not so many years the tables will turn and the preponderance of vice will accrue to Labour.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,354
    edited June 2
    Heathener said:

    A good Head uses Inset days through the school year to sort out slips in staff standards, to ensure staff are up to speed on regulations, to cover important protocols such as discipline or medical emergencies (which DO happen) etc. Because you’ve got the whole staff there and they are focused, if you do them right they’re a really good way of raising standards.

    Inset after-school and evenings are also sometimes used.

    There’s a debate to be had about wellbeing and whether a goal of ‘economic productivity’ is really the only viable way of human existence but I’ll spare y’all that right now ;)


    Most state schools, pretty much all academies in academy chains, now have weekly 'directed time' where staff have to stay behind one or two evenings a week until 5 to sit in meetings and listen to presentations.

    It is the biggest waste of time in the history of universe.

    Still, could be worse, could be more inset days. I worked in one private school that had twelve inset days and one member of staff was threatened with violence for saying she couldn't turn up (part time and worked in a different school on that day). All we actually did on that particular day was tidy classrooms anyway, so I don't know why he got so worked up.

    About the only good thing about them was that it meant the - ahem - younger age groups were not near that Principal for more days of the year.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Apparently VAT on private schools is going to “dramatically shift the polls”

    Hopium at its finest.

    Why should it shift the polls, as it's already known to be Labour policy, and has already been a focus of attention in the campaign?
    It's a policy that the Tories need to be very careful with, even if it does make a difference to some voters.

    1) It is not LD policy, and particularly in areas with lots of private schools in the south it could shift anti-Tory votes to LD from Labour.

    2) A significant percentage of the population thinks private education is socially divisive and a bad thing entirely. This isn't just Corbynites. It contradicts the idea of Nashy Serves to get kids from different walks of life mixing.

    3) It puts the spotlight on the meme of Sunak's own wealth and privilege, and inability to relate to ordinary people.

    I really can't see it shifting polls now, and postal ballots go out in a week or so time, many being returned immediately.
    What/who is “Nashy Serves”?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627
    edited June 2
    Chris said:

    Eabhal said:

    Chris said:

    Apparently VAT on private schools is going to “dramatically shift the polls”

    Hopium at its finest.

    Why should it shift the polls, as it's already known to be Labour policy, and has already been a focus of attention in the campaign?
    Unless the Conservatives make it their primary campaign issue over the next 4 weeks, talk about it in the debates, FB ads and so on.

    It wouldn't even be the craziest thing they've done so far.
    It may fit in with the strategy of trying to get a few percent of votes back from Reform, but given the small percentage of privately educated children and their demographics, I can't see it doing much to a Labour lead of 20% or so.
    Even with a question framed in a negative way about private schools being forced to close there is quite a division of opinion. 14% of Tory voters think it a good thing if they do.


  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,354

    ...

    a

    darkage said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    EPG said:

    Eabhal said:

    kle4 said:

    carnforth said:

    Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times

    This whole affair has really been quite weird. However it ends up just letting her doddle to an easy win and then be ignored for 4-5 years surely would have been easier without all this briefing and back and forth?
    RobD said:

    carnforth said:

    Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times

    What about his policy on appointment to the Lords? No ex-MP can be a Lord until eight years or two parliaments have passed, whichever is longer.
    That's my policy! If he's adopted it he is clearly taking sound advice :).
    Doesn’t sound like Labour want the Abbott story to go away, Team Starmer briefing are giving it fresh legs themselves! They are far too smug and confident about this to think Abbott can run again with Labour rosette.

    Maybe it suits them. Everyone barking down one reasonably harmless rabbit hole, are not looking into others.

    Which brings me to a rather easy prediction I can make. The first real pressure Labour are going to come under in this campaign is from their tax raid on private schools. I’m hearing that’s it’s coming up again and again and again in canvassing, and not necessarily in posh area’s either, and even from people who don’t have children, because they hope to and hope to send them to a private education not abandon them to the state sector, and Labours tax raid on private education is going to kill that ambition off for their family. Labour are in a mess over this policy, they are shitting votes over this one policy alone. Labour are about to come under immense pressure to do a hugely damaging u turn on it, once media and opponents smell blood how insanely unpopular it is on the doorsteps and not surviving first contact with voters 😄

    I was educated in the state sector, and I said to my mum, why didn’t you send me to a private school with all the money you have? And she said it was a school with a very good reputation, so there was no need to spend money on a private education. Yep. That’s my mum.
    Not sure where to start with this one.

    The bit in bold - are you suggesting that Labour would be polling at over 50% if it weren't for this policy?
    I think "even from people who don’t have children" was a hint that this is not to be taken at face value.
    No take it at face value. Tax raid on private schools is dying a death on the doorsteps. Say in comparison with May’s Dementia Tax at this stage of 2017, all it needs now is for opposition and media (hint hint those of you reading this) to realise this and launch a pile on, and the polls will flip just on this one policy alone.

    As I said up front, this is an easy prediction for me to make. Now we know from canvassing how badly this has gone down on the doorstep, Labour are in trouble over it. Labour are in trouble over it because they are stupid, this isn’t a clever money making wheeze and sop to Left wing, its voters from every level in society particularly working class who are furious with this policy, all it takes is a media pile on its unpopularity to make this election all about Labours school killing tax just like 2017 became all about Dementia Tax, and the polls will flip around.

    Nick Palmer ex MP will back me up. Not many on here do more voter contact than he does, and he will be honest enough to tell you he has heard it over and over too. Even if he doesn’t admit I was first to inform him of Thangham’s defeat to the Greens two years ago!
    particularly working class who are furious with this policy

    Come on. The labour lead with people in work is 52:15. The labour lead with people in social grade DE & C2 is 42:22.

    The Labour lead with people who are likely to have school age kids is 52:14.
    Ha ha ha 😃

    I’m talking about what is ABOUT to happen. I was first to tell you the election was on 4th July, now I am first to tell you Labours Education Death Tax is about to become the biggest story of this election and dramatically shift the polls.

    You telling me I’m wrong?
    Yes, I think you're wrong.

    1) I don't think it's a net negative for Labour. They need something to keep the base onside, and it's a useful tax rise to point to whenever someone asks them how they will afford something (even if the sums don't add up)

    2) I'm certain it won't have the breadth of impact that May's social care reform did. Social care will affect almost everyone. Only 7% of all kids go to private school. The policy has been around for months already and has barely caused a ripple - another distinction from social care reform, which was dropped into the manifesto at the last minute by May.
    I think there is something in what @MoonRabbit is saying on this. For many people this is a tax on aspiration. It seems to be a way of appealing to the remaining Corbynites in its voting base. I don't think it is a 'dementia tax' catastrophe, but if you take for example Hastings and Rye it is a marginal seat between the tories and labour, the majority for the tories in 2017 was 346. There are a lot of people (across generations) with a personal interest in private education in the constituency who may be deterred by this policy.
    Another risk is if voters come to fear a tax on private education beyond private schools: tutors, after-school teaching and so on.
    If they go after tutors, the students and many teachers will riot. It is very, very profitable work.
    Putting VAT on cramming lesson to pass the 11 plus is not going to reduce the number of parents who are going to pay for cramming lessons to get their children into Alcester Grammar school.

    Much of this work is a tax free cash hobble anyway and if teachers do put their work through the books they would not turnover enough to be VAT registered. So no riots!
    That's very out of date. Most tutors now get hired through various agencies and tutor online. Not only do these agencies meet the criteria for VAT, but they pay by bank transfer.

    I also come close to the VAT threshold this year, to the extent I've been boxing clever about my hours.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,354

    ...

    a

    darkage said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    EPG said:

    Eabhal said:

    kle4 said:

    carnforth said:

    Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times

    This whole affair has really been quite weird. However it ends up just letting her doddle to an easy win and then be ignored for 4-5 years surely would have been easier without all this briefing and back and forth?
    RobD said:

    carnforth said:

    Diane Abbott has been offered a peerage by Keir Starmer if she quits as a Labour candidate -- The Times

    What about his policy on appointment to the Lords? No ex-MP can be a Lord until eight years or two parliaments have passed, whichever is longer.
    That's my policy! If he's adopted it he is clearly taking sound advice :).
    Doesn’t sound like Labour want the Abbott story to go away, Team Starmer briefing are giving it fresh legs themselves! They are far too smug and confident about this to think Abbott can run again with Labour rosette.

    Maybe it suits them. Everyone barking down one reasonably harmless rabbit hole, are not looking into others.

    Which brings me to a rather easy prediction I can make. The first real pressure Labour are going to come under in this campaign is from their tax raid on private schools. I’m hearing that’s it’s coming up again and again and again in canvassing, and not necessarily in posh area’s either, and even from people who don’t have children, because they hope to and hope to send them to a private education not abandon them to the state sector, and Labours tax raid on private education is going to kill that ambition off for their family. Labour are in a mess over this policy, they are shitting votes over this one policy alone. Labour are about to come under immense pressure to do a hugely damaging u turn on it, once media and opponents smell blood how insanely unpopular it is on the doorsteps and not surviving first contact with voters 😄

    I was educated in the state sector, and I said to my mum, why didn’t you send me to a private school with all the money you have? And she said it was a school with a very good reputation, so there was no need to spend money on a private education. Yep. That’s my mum.
    Not sure where to start with this one.

    The bit in bold - are you suggesting that Labour would be polling at over 50% if it weren't for this policy?
    I think "even from people who don’t have children" was a hint that this is not to be taken at face value.
    No take it at face value. Tax raid on private schools is dying a death on the doorsteps. Say in comparison with May’s Dementia Tax at this stage of 2017, all it needs now is for opposition and media (hint hint those of you reading this) to realise this and launch a pile on, and the polls will flip just on this one policy alone.

    As I said up front, this is an easy prediction for me to make. Now we know from canvassing how badly this has gone down on the doorstep, Labour are in trouble over it. Labour are in trouble over it because they are stupid, this isn’t a clever money making wheeze and sop to Left wing, its voters from every level in society particularly working class who are furious with this policy, all it takes is a media pile on its unpopularity to make this election all about Labours school killing tax just like 2017 became all about Dementia Tax, and the polls will flip around.

    Nick Palmer ex MP will back me up. Not many on here do more voter contact than he does, and he will be honest enough to tell you he has heard it over and over too. Even if he doesn’t admit I was first to inform him of Thangham’s defeat to the Greens two years ago!
    particularly working class who are furious with this policy

    Come on. The labour lead with people in work is 52:15. The labour lead with people in social grade DE & C2 is 42:22.

    The Labour lead with people who are likely to have school age kids is 52:14.
    Ha ha ha 😃

    I’m talking about what is ABOUT to happen. I was first to tell you the election was on 4th July, now I am first to tell you Labours Education Death Tax is about to become the biggest story of this election and dramatically shift the polls.

    You telling me I’m wrong?
    Yes, I think you're wrong.

    1) I don't think it's a net negative for Labour. They need something to keep the base onside, and it's a useful tax rise to point to whenever someone asks them how they will afford something (even if the sums don't add up)

    2) I'm certain it won't have the breadth of impact that May's social care reform did. Social care will affect almost everyone. Only 7% of all kids go to private school. The policy has been around for months already and has barely caused a ripple - another distinction from social care reform, which was dropped into the manifesto at the last minute by May.
    I think there is something in what @MoonRabbit is saying on this. For many people this is a tax on aspiration. It seems to be a way of appealing to the remaining Corbynites in its voting base. I don't think it is a 'dementia tax' catastrophe, but if you take for example Hastings and Rye it is a marginal seat between the tories and labour, the majority for the tories in 2017 was 346. There are a lot of people (across generations) with a personal interest in private education in the constituency who may be deterred by this policy.
    Another risk is if voters come to fear a tax on private education beyond private schools: tutors, after-school teaching and so on.
    If they go after tutors, the students and many teachers will riot. It is very, very profitable work.
    Putting VAT on cramming lesson to pass the 11 plus is not going to reduce the number of parents who are going to pay for cramming lessons to get their children into Alcester Grammar school.

    Much of this work is a tax free cash hobble anyway and if teachers do put their work through the books they would not turnover enough to be VAT registered. So no riots!
    Just getting the tutors to pay tax would be an interesting exercise.

    To give some context - I know of one teacher who is doing 10 hours of tuition a week. At £75 an hour.

    EDIT: don’t know about 11 plus - but the market for GCSE and A level tutoring is red hot.
    What subject? I'm wondering if I'm undercharging at £55.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627
    DougSeal said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Apparently VAT on private schools is going to “dramatically shift the polls”

    Hopium at its finest.

    Why should it shift the polls, as it's already known to be Labour policy, and has already been a focus of attention in the campaign?
    It's a policy that the Tories need to be very careful with, even if it does make a difference to some voters.

    1) It is not LD policy, and particularly in areas with lots of private schools in the south it could shift anti-Tory votes to LD from Labour.

    2) A significant percentage of the population thinks private education is socially divisive and a bad thing entirely. This isn't just Corbynites. It contradicts the idea of Nashy Serves to get kids from different walks of life mixing.

    3) It puts the spotlight on the meme of Sunak's own wealth and privilege, and inability to relate to ordinary people.

    I really can't see it shifting polls now, and postal ballots go out in a week or so time, many being returned immediately.
    What/who is “Nashy Serves”?
    It is where 18 year olds are conscripted to peel spuds and square bash. Think of it as a gap year, only not on the beach in Thailand.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044
    DM_Andy said:

    ToryJim said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The most entertaining aspect of the Tories running a presidential campaign with Richi is, they think he is the best they've got.

    They think he is so much better than the rest of the cabinet they can't risk anybody else on the stump.

    Which is why they are 20 points behind and counting

    Maybe it’s that the Tories are so far behind that most of the Cabinet can’t afford any time away from their seats…
    Kemi Badenoch has been very busy on X/Twitter
    https://x.com/KemiBadenoch/status/1796531574252744978
    Kemi Badenoch
    @KemiBadenoch
    ·
    May 31
    Labour’s Shadow Minister for Equalities said someone can identify as a llama or animal and deserve respect if they do.

    These people could be in charge of what your child is taught at school.

    I can’t see any evidence that this is true, however.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549
    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Eabhal said:

    Chris said:

    Apparently VAT on private schools is going to “dramatically shift the polls”

    Hopium at its finest.

    Why should it shift the polls, as it's already known to be Labour policy, and has already been a focus of attention in the campaign?
    Unless the Conservatives make it their primary campaign issue over the next 4 weeks, talk about it in the debates, FB ads and so on.

    It wouldn't even be the craziest thing they've done so far.
    It may fit in with the strategy of trying to get a few percent of votes back from Reform, but given the small percentage of privately educated children and their demographics, I can't see it doing much to a Labour lead of 20% or so.
    Even with a question framed in a negative way about private schools being forced to close there is quite a division of opinion. 14% of Tory voters think it a good thing if they do.


    That's not a 'negative' wat of framing it. It's a truthful way of framing it.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 692
    Chris said:

    Eabhal said:

    Chris said:

    Apparently VAT on private schools is going to “dramatically shift the polls”

    Hopium at its finest.

    Why should it shift the polls, as it's already known to be Labour policy, and has already been a focus of attention in the campaign?
    Unless the Conservatives make it their primary campaign issue over the next 4 weeks, talk about it in the debates, FB ads and so on.

    It wouldn't even be the craziest thing they've done so far.
    It may fit in with the strategy of trying to get a few percent of votes back from Reform, but given the small percentage of privately educated children and their demographics, I can't see it doing much to a Labour lead of 20% or so.
    I don’t buy this being a major vote driver for any parents whose children aren’t already in public school as it just makes an already very expensive thing more expensive. I would love to own a racing yacht but as they are already far too costly for me it doesn’t really matter if they are suddenly 20% more expensive.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,837
    edited June 2
    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Apparently VAT on private schools is going to “dramatically shift the polls”

    Hopium at its finest.

    Why should it shift the polls, as it's already known to be Labour policy, and has already been a focus of attention in the campaign?
    It's a policy that the Tories need to be very careful with, even if it does make a difference to some voters.

    1) It is not LD policy, and particularly in areas with lots of private schools in the south it could shift anti-Tory votes to LD from Labour.

    2) A significant percentage of the population thinks private education is socially divisive and a bad thing entirely. This isn't just Corbynites. It contradicts the idea of Nashy Serves to get kids from different walks of life mixing.

    3) It puts the spotlight on the meme of Sunak's own wealth and privilege, and inability to relate to ordinary people.

    I really can't see it shifting polls now, and postal ballots go out in a week or so time, many being returned immediately.
    The second point is actually very pertinent, though the Conservatives don't really intend that the indentured servitude policy should apply to *their* offspring, of course. This different kids mixing excuse is garbage. It's really a wheeze to inflict misery on prole kids to please rich elderly voters, and provide extra helping hands for menial labouring chores in collapsing public services.

    They've already given the game away by telling us it's both compulsory and not backed by criminal sanction. In the unlikely event that they ever got the chance to do this to people, the punishments for non-compliance would doubtless come in the form of the withholding of certain grants and social security payments that might really hurt poor families, but which wealthier ones can easily do without or don't receive at all.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,863
    edited June 2

    Andy_JS said:

    Since you have been discussing Diane Abbott, I looked at her Wikipedia entry -- and found this: "They had one son, James,[16][11][163] before divorcing in 1993.[3][11][164] Abbott chose her Conservative MP voting pair, Jonathan Aitken, as her son's godfather."

    Which I found as surprising as learning, from her Wikipedia entry, that Kamala Harris is a member of a Baptist church: "Harris is a Baptist, holding membership of the Third Baptist Church of San Francisco, a congregation of the American Baptist Churches USA."

    (Links omitted in both quotes.)

    I am not sure what to make of either of those facts, but I find them fascinating.

    Why did you find the fact regarding Diane Abbott and Jonathan Aitken surprising?
    A fair few years back, there was a good program on radio 4 about cross-party friendships in the HoC. ISTR one was a left-wing Labour MP who was temporarily in a wheelchair. He was in corridor in the HoC with thick pile carpets, and he could not open the door. A Tory MP opened the door for him, and the Labour MP invited him into his office for a thankyou drink. The two became firm friends.

    They should redo it now. Perhaps find SLab and SNP friendships, or Welsh Labour and PC, as well as the 'normal' Tory and Labour rivalries.

    (On a similar note, I used to have a dear friend who was so left-wing he made Dennis Skinner look like Maggie Thatcher. It turned out that our broad views on how we wanted the country to look were quite similar, even if our views on how we got there were significantly different.)
    There are a couple of political podcasts whose presenters from different parties seem friendly enough:-
    The Rest is Politics, with Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart
    Political Currency, with George Osborne & Ed Balls.

    Diane Abbott and Michael Portillo were frenemies on Andrew Neil's programme, having known each other since appearing in a school play together.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,354

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Eabhal said:

    Chris said:

    Apparently VAT on private schools is going to “dramatically shift the polls”

    Hopium at its finest.

    Why should it shift the polls, as it's already known to be Labour policy, and has already been a focus of attention in the campaign?
    Unless the Conservatives make it their primary campaign issue over the next 4 weeks, talk about it in the debates, FB ads and so on.

    It wouldn't even be the craziest thing they've done so far.
    It may fit in with the strategy of trying to get a few percent of votes back from Reform, but given the small percentage of privately educated children and their demographics, I can't see it doing much to a Labour lead of 20% or so.
    Even with a question framed in a negative way about private schools being forced to close there is quite a division of opinion. 14% of Tory voters think it a good thing if they do.


    That's not a 'negative' wat of framing it. It's a truthful way of framing it.
    I'm not convinced that 'not charging VAT' is the same as a 'tax break.'

    I mean, is it a 'tax break' to not pay income tax below £12570? Or to pay standard rate on up to £50k?

    A tax being charged and then specifically remitted would be different.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 2
    Im intrigued by Reforms 'pact' With the SDP which seems to involve not standing down anywhere nor ever mentioning them or it. Delian League strong
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,212
    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    A good Head uses Inset days through the school year to sort out slips in staff standards, to ensure staff are up to speed on regulations, to cover important protocols such as discipline or medical emergencies (which DO happen) etc. Because you’ve got the whole staff there and they are focused, if you do them right they’re a really good way of raising standards.

    Inset after-school and evenings are also sometimes used.

    There’s a debate to be had about wellbeing and whether a goal of ‘economic productivity’ is really the only viable way of human existence but I’ll spare y’all that right now ;)


    Most state schools, pretty much all academies in academy chains, now have weekly 'directed time' where staff have to stay behind one or two evenings a week until 5 to sit in meetings and listen to presentations.

    It is the biggest waste of time in the history of universe.

    Still, could be worse, could be more inset days. I worked in one private school that had twelve inset days and one member of staff was threatened with violence for saying she couldn't turn up (part time and worked in a different school on that day). All we actually did on that particular day was tidy classrooms anyway, so I don't know why he got so worked up.

    About the only good thing about them was that it meant the - ahem - younger age groups were not near that Principal for more days of the year.
    .., and then the princess asked why there was a solider guarding a piece of the garden…
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited June 2
    dixiedean said:

    DM_Andy said:

    ToryJim said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The most entertaining aspect of the Tories running a presidential campaign with Richi is, they think he is the best they've got.

    They think he is so much better than the rest of the cabinet they can't risk anybody else on the stump.

    Which is why they are 20 points behind and counting

    Maybe it’s that the Tories are so far behind that most of the Cabinet can’t afford any time away from their seats…
    Kemi Badenoch has been very busy on X/Twitter
    https://x.com/KemiBadenoch/status/1796531574252744978
    Kemi Badenoch
    @KemiBadenoch
    ·
    May 31
    Labour’s Shadow Minister for Equalities said someone can identify as a llama or animal and deserve respect if they do.

    These people could be in charge of what your child is taught at school.

    I'm not qualified in mental health, but I really do worry about Kemi.
    Kemi Badenoch has for years assiduously promoted herself as the next Conservative leader on a culture war agenda. She is saying this stuff because she believes Conservatives will lap it up so she gets to be leader. She isn't campaigning to win the general election for her party.

    If you're concerned about mental health it should be that of the collective Conservative Party, not Badenoch who seems very clearly to know what she's doing.

    A reminder of the whole thread and Badenoch's Party leader agenda

    https://twitter.com/KemiBadenoch/status/1796531557668434127
  • eekeek Posts: 28,366
    Have we discussed Rishi’s announcement of 100 new GP surgeries

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cv2289vk0n1o

    Given that Bozo announced but failed to delivery 100 new hospitals surely any announcement in this area (let alone a one so unambitious) is not a good idea as it allows other parties to remind people of their past failure.to delivery.

    Rishi really isn’t good at this campaigning lark
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549

    Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.

    Most people just use them a way to ext

    Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.

    One of the primary schools in my village puts all the inset days into one week - which happens to be next week - so that parents can get a week's holiday during what is technically 'term-time'.

    My son's school doesn't, and we also have an inset day tomorrow. I think many schools are, as Legoland's entry prices are higher than on the Sunday - £49 for tomorrow, compared to £44 today and £37 on Tuesday. Next Monday is £34. Unless some schools are having half term this week?

    (What is the point of 'inset days'?)
    Teacher training and (for the ones in September) planning for the upcoming year
    Why can this not be done outside termtime, when the kids are on holiday? ;)
    They were. When Kenneth Baker decreed they should happen, he took 5 days off the school holidays and made them INSET days. Hence the old name Baker Days. These INSET days aren't a surprise by the way, schools and councils publish these at least a year in advance. Perhaps parents need to plan babysitting a little better.

    :neutral:
    As an aside, I know of a school where they suddenly decreed kids had to come back from summer holidays two days earlier than expected, as they had miscalculated the number of days they had planned to teach, and it was under the minimum needed (I've no idea what legislation that's under). The problem is they did not communicate the change well to the parents, so some parents did not send their kids in. Or were still on holiday...

    As for your last line; that is not easy for many parents. Teachers are not going to gain *any* sympathy if they try to say that...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Eabhal said:

    Chris said:

    Apparently VAT on private schools is going to “dramatically shift the polls”

    Hopium at its finest.

    Why should it shift the polls, as it's already known to be Labour policy, and has already been a focus of attention in the campaign?
    Unless the Conservatives make it their primary campaign issue over the next 4 weeks, talk about it in the debates, FB ads and so on.

    It wouldn't even be the craziest thing they've done so far.
    It may fit in with the strategy of trying to get a few percent of votes back from Reform, but given the small percentage of privately educated children and their demographics, I can't see it doing much to a Labour lead of 20% or so.
    Even with a question framed in a negative way about private schools being forced to close there is quite a division of opinion. 14% of Tory voters think it a good thing if they do.


    So more people think it's a bad thing than a good thing then, and the policy is net unpopular?

    Good. There is still some common sense in this country.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Eabhal said:

    Chris said:

    Apparently VAT on private schools is going to “dramatically shift the polls”

    Hopium at its finest.

    Why should it shift the polls, as it's already known to be Labour policy, and has already been a focus of attention in the campaign?
    Unless the Conservatives make it their primary campaign issue over the next 4 weeks, talk about it in the debates, FB ads and so on.

    It wouldn't even be the craziest thing they've done so far.
    It may fit in with the strategy of trying to get a few percent of votes back from Reform, but given the small percentage of privately educated children and their demographics, I can't see it doing much to a Labour lead of 20% or so.
    Even with a question framed in a negative way about private schools being forced to close there is quite a division of opinion. 14% of Tory voters think it a good thing if they do.


    That's not a 'negative' wat of framing it. It's a truthful way of framing it.
    If the same question were framed as "Is it a good or bad thing to put VAT on private school fees in order to increase resources for State schools?" the results might be different.

    It's nor a policy that I support BTW, though also not one that will influence my vote.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Eabhal said:

    Chris said:

    Apparently VAT on private schools is going to “dramatically shift the polls”

    Hopium at its finest.

    Why should it shift the polls, as it's already known to be Labour policy, and has already been a focus of attention in the campaign?
    Unless the Conservatives make it their primary campaign issue over the next 4 weeks, talk about it in the debates, FB ads and so on.

    It wouldn't even be the craziest thing they've done so far.
    It may fit in with the strategy of trying to get a few percent of votes back from Reform, but given the small percentage of privately educated children and their demographics, I can't see it doing much to a Labour lead of 20% or so.
    Even with a question framed in a negative way about private schools being forced to close there is quite a division of opinion. 14% of Tory voters think it a good thing if they do.


    That's not a 'negative' wat of framing it. It's a truthful way of framing it.
    I'm not convinced that 'not charging VAT' is the same as a 'tax break.'

    I mean, is it a 'tax break' to not pay income tax below £12570? Or to pay standard rate on up to £50k?

    A tax being charged and then specifically remitted would be different.
    Indeed, it's just the framing Labour would prefer to use for their policy.

    Far too many fall into their trap.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,354

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Eabhal said:

    Chris said:

    Apparently VAT on private schools is going to “dramatically shift the polls”

    Hopium at its finest.

    Why should it shift the polls, as it's already known to be Labour policy, and has already been a focus of attention in the campaign?
    Unless the Conservatives make it their primary campaign issue over the next 4 weeks, talk about it in the debates, FB ads and so on.

    It wouldn't even be the craziest thing they've done so far.
    It may fit in with the strategy of trying to get a few percent of votes back from Reform, but given the small percentage of privately educated children and their demographics, I can't see it doing much to a Labour lead of 20% or so.
    Even with a question framed in a negative way about private schools being forced to close there is quite a division of opinion. 14% of Tory voters think it a good thing if they do.


    So more people think it's a bad thing than a good thing then, and the policy is net unpopular?

    Good. There is still some common sense in this country.
    Well, it is a bad thing. It's attacking the wrong target in the wrong way.

    But as Anthony Jay and Jonathan Lynn noted, there are times when decisions are made that are wrong administratively, wrong economically, wrong morally and/or wrong socially but right politically. This is useful for Starmer in keeping the left onside and that's all that matters to him.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    The electorate may detest VAT on private schools but not as much as they want to inflict a punishment beating on the Tories. That’s what this election is all about. I’ll agree with @Casino_Royale that it is not a great way to decide policy for the next five years but, as the world’s worst during instructor said, them’s the breaks.

    I maintain that it Johnson had just asked Owen Paterson to take his suspension like a man he would have had more capital to spend on defending Partygate. He might still be there and the Tories competitive. That was the turning point.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,775
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Stereodog, some private schools are hugely expensive. Others could be afforded by many people but at the cost of forgoing holidays and other thing. The former will not be sunk or hit too hard by a VAT rise. The latter will be.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Foxy said:

    DougSeal said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Apparently VAT on private schools is going to “dramatically shift the polls”

    Hopium at its finest.

    Why should it shift the polls, as it's already known to be Labour policy, and has already been a focus of attention in the campaign?
    It's a policy that the Tories need to be very careful with, even if it does make a difference to some voters.

    1) It is not LD policy, and particularly in areas with lots of private schools in the south it could shift anti-Tory votes to LD from Labour.

    2) A significant percentage of the population thinks private education is socially divisive and a bad thing entirely. This isn't just Corbynites. It contradicts the idea of Nashy Serves to get kids from different walks of life mixing.

    3) It puts the spotlight on the meme of Sunak's own wealth and privilege, and inability to relate to ordinary people.

    I really can't see it shifting polls now, and postal ballots go out in a week or so time, many being returned immediately.
    What/who is “Nashy Serves”?
    It is where 18 year olds are conscripted to peel spuds and square bash. Think of it as a gap year, only not on the beach in Thailand.
    National Service? What is this “Nashy Serves” bollocks?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,863

    Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.

    Most people just use them a way to ext

    Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.

    One of the primary schools in my village puts all the inset days into one week - which happens to be next week - so that parents can get a week's holiday during what is technically 'term-time'.

    My son's school doesn't, and we also have an inset day tomorrow. I think many schools are, as Legoland's entry prices are higher than on the Sunday - £49 for tomorrow, compared to £44 today and £37 on Tuesday. Next Monday is £34. Unless some schools are having half term this week?

    (What is the point of 'inset days'?)
    Teacher training and (for the ones in September) planning for the upcoming year
    Why can this not be done outside termtime, when the kids are on holiday? ;)
    Because It Has Always Been Done That Way.

    Like many other ancient traditions, probably actually dates to a mistake by Whitehall in 1957.
    1989 I think.
    Yes, often known as Baker Days after Conservative Education Secretary Ken Baker.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Eabhal said:

    Chris said:

    Apparently VAT on private schools is going to “dramatically shift the polls”

    Hopium at its finest.

    Why should it shift the polls, as it's already known to be Labour policy, and has already been a focus of attention in the campaign?
    Unless the Conservatives make it their primary campaign issue over the next 4 weeks, talk about it in the debates, FB ads and so on.

    It wouldn't even be the craziest thing they've done so far.
    It may fit in with the strategy of trying to get a few percent of votes back from Reform, but given the small percentage of privately educated children and their demographics, I can't see it doing much to a Labour lead of 20% or so.
    Even with a question framed in a negative way about private schools being forced to close there is quite a division of opinion. 14% of Tory voters think it a good thing if they do.


    That's not a 'negative' wat of framing it. It's a truthful way of framing it.
    If the same question were framed as "Is it a good or bad thing to put VAT on private school fees in order to increase resources for State schools?" the results might be different.

    It's nor a policy that I support BTW, though also not one that will influence my vote.
    That framing would be a lie, because the policy may well put more of a squeeze on resources for state schools. Either because they have to fund the pupils who no longer go to private schools, or because the government takes the tax and spends it elsewhere...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,354

    Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.

    Most people just use them a way to ext

    Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.

    One of the primary schools in my village puts all the inset days into one week - which happens to be next week - so that parents can get a week's holiday during what is technically 'term-time'.

    My son's school doesn't, and we also have an inset day tomorrow. I think many schools are, as Legoland's entry prices are higher than on the Sunday - £49 for tomorrow, compared to £44 today and £37 on Tuesday. Next Monday is £34. Unless some schools are having half term this week?

    (What is the point of 'inset days'?)
    Teacher training and (for the ones in September) planning for the upcoming year
    Why can this not be done outside termtime, when the kids are on holiday? ;)
    Because It Has Always Been Done That Way.

    Like many other ancient traditions, probably actually dates to a mistake by Whitehall in 1957.
    1989 I think.
    Yes, often known as Baker Days after Conservative Education Secretary Ken Baker.
    Wasn't it originally designed to instruct teachers in the new National Curriculum, but then kept anyway because it seemed useful?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Eabhal said:

    Chris said:

    Apparently VAT on private schools is going to “dramatically shift the polls”

    Hopium at its finest.

    Why should it shift the polls, as it's already known to be Labour policy, and has already been a focus of attention in the campaign?
    Unless the Conservatives make it their primary campaign issue over the next 4 weeks, talk about it in the debates, FB ads and so on.

    It wouldn't even be the craziest thing they've done so far.
    It may fit in with the strategy of trying to get a few percent of votes back from Reform, but given the small percentage of privately educated children and their demographics, I can't see it doing much to a Labour lead of 20% or so.
    Even with a question framed in a negative way about private schools being forced to close there is quite a division of opinion. 14% of Tory voters think it a good thing if they do.


    That's not a 'negative' wat of framing it. It's a truthful way of framing it.
    I'm not convinced that 'not charging VAT' is the same as a 'tax break.'

    I mean, is it a 'tax break' to not pay income tax below £12570? Or to pay standard rate on up to £50k?

    A tax being charged and then specifically remitted would be different.
    Indeed, it's just the framing Labour would prefer to use for their policy.

    Far too many fall into their trap.
    There’s worse. After all we’ve seen a quarter of the electorate say they’re still voting Tories. They’ve not just fallen into a trap, they’re clearly still in it, and suffering from Stockholm Syndrome.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,837
    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Eabhal said:

    Chris said:

    Apparently VAT on private schools is going to “dramatically shift the polls”

    Hopium at its finest.

    Why should it shift the polls, as it's already known to be Labour policy, and has already been a focus of attention in the campaign?
    Unless the Conservatives make it their primary campaign issue over the next 4 weeks, talk about it in the debates, FB ads and so on.

    It wouldn't even be the craziest thing they've done so far.
    It may fit in with the strategy of trying to get a few percent of votes back from Reform, but given the small percentage of privately educated children and their demographics, I can't see it doing much to a Labour lead of 20% or so.
    Even with a question framed in a negative way about private schools being forced to close there is quite a division of opinion. 14% of Tory voters think it a good thing if they do.


    The responses are split into quarters (good, bad, don't know, don't care) because the only respondents with skin in the game are parents with children already in these schools, which is a very small group. It's a non-issue that is seldom ever thought about for everyone else. About as relevant in the grand scheme of things as whether or not you like a certain kind of biscuit.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,354

    Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.

    Most people just use them a way to ext

    Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.

    One of the primary schools in my village puts all the inset days into one week - which happens to be next week - so that parents can get a week's holiday during what is technically 'term-time'.

    My son's school doesn't, and we also have an inset day tomorrow. I think many schools are, as Legoland's entry prices are higher than on the Sunday - £49 for tomorrow, compared to £44 today and £37 on Tuesday. Next Monday is £34. Unless some schools are having half term this week?

    (What is the point of 'inset days'?)
    Teacher training and (for the ones in September) planning for the upcoming year
    Why can this not be done outside termtime, when the kids are on holiday? ;)
    They were. When Kenneth Baker decreed they should happen, he took 5 days off the school holidays and made them INSET days. Hence the old name Baker Days. These INSET days aren't a surprise by the way, schools and councils publish these at least a year in advance. Perhaps parents need to plan babysitting a little better.

    :neutral:
    As an aside, I know of a school where they suddenly decreed kids had to come back from summer holidays two days earlier than expected, as they had miscalculated the number of days they had planned to teach, and it was under the minimum needed (I've no idea what legislation that's under). The problem is they did not communicate the change well to the parents, so some parents did not send their kids in. Or were still on holiday...

    As for your last line; that is not easy for many parents. Teachers are not going to gain *any* sympathy if they try to say that...
    I doubt if they would. Quite a lot of teachers are parents too...
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    FF43 said:

    dixiedean said:

    DM_Andy said:

    ToryJim said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The most entertaining aspect of the Tories running a presidential campaign with Richi is, they think he is the best they've got.

    They think he is so much better than the rest of the cabinet they can't risk anybody else on the stump.

    Which is why they are 20 points behind and counting

    Maybe it’s that the Tories are so far behind that most of the Cabinet can’t afford any time away from their seats…
    Kemi Badenoch has been very busy on X/Twitter
    https://x.com/KemiBadenoch/status/1796531574252744978
    Kemi Badenoch
    @KemiBadenoch
    ·
    May 31
    Labour’s Shadow Minister for Equalities said someone can identify as a llama or animal and deserve respect if they do.

    These people could be in charge of what your child is taught at school.

    I'm not qualified in mental health, but I really do worry about Kemi.
    Kemi Badenoch has for years assiduously promoted herself as the next Conservative leader on a culture war agenda. She is saying this stuff because she believes Conservatives will lap it up so she gets to be leader. She isn't campaigning to win the general election for her party.

    If you're concerned about mental health it should be that of the collective Conservative Party, not Badenoch who seems very clearly to know what she's doing.

    A reminder of the whole thread and Badenoch's Party leader agenda

    https://twitter.com/KemiBadenoch/status/1796531557668434127
    Badenoch would be a disaster as party leader at a general election. She might do well as LOTO in the first couple of years though. She seems to revel in a fight and has that more American approach of wanting to own the libs more than she wants to make good policy.

    Her stint as trade secretary has been underwhelming. But I would rather face someone like Jenrick or Truss at PMQs than her.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,362
    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    Frankly I'm already amazed anything gets done in the courts thesedays.


    @TomRHickman - What is the point of legal rights if the system requires you to compromise them because they are too expensive to litigate?

    @yuanyi_z
    What does it mean to have world-leading’ courts if they are increasingly giving up hearing ordinary cases involving ordinary people? My law column for @TheCriticMag. thecritic.co.uk/what-price-j…

    https://thecritic.co.uk/what-price-justice/

    That's another bloody thing, isn't it.
    • The upcoming death bulge as the boomers go into the dark
    • Bankrupt councils
    • Nonfunctioning justice system
    • Nonfunctioning armed forces
    • Insufficient prison places
    • Massive government debt
    • Our children cannot buy houses
    • We import 500-1,000K people per annum to take up the slack
    Meanwhile our lords and masters fuck around. My anger at the Conservatives is increasingly matched by my despair at Labour in simply ignoring the problems. I don't care if the election is won by Reform, the Greens, or Plaid effing Cymru. But somebody, somewhere, has to kick the arse of these overpaid overlords so they start bailing out the leaking boat.

    I have not been so angry and despairing simultaneously at an election ever. It's not an election process, it's a CFIT for cosplaying politicians who like talking hard but couldn't wipe their own arse. They are just awful.
    You’re right and I feel pretty similar to this. It’s all so totally disengaging.

    I’m expecting more of the same. Dull managed decline from careerist politicians unable or unwilling to make major decisions.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited June 2
    .
    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    A good Head uses Inset days through the school year to sort out slips in staff standards, to ensure staff are up to speed on regulations, to cover important protocols such as discipline or medical emergencies (which DO happen) etc. Because you’ve got the whole staff there and they are focused, if you do them right they’re a really good way of raising standards.

    Inset after-school and evenings are also sometimes used.

    There’s a debate to be had about wellbeing and whether a goal of ‘economic productivity’ is really the only viable way of human existence but I’ll spare y’all that right now ;)


    Most state schools, pretty much all academies in academy chains, now have weekly 'directed time' where staff have to stay behind one or two evenings a week until 5 to sit in meetings and listen to presentations.

    It is the biggest waste of time in the history of universe.

    Still, could be worse, could be more inset days. I worked in one private school that had twelve inset days and one member of staff was threatened with violence for saying she couldn't turn up (part time and worked in a different school on that day). All we actually did on that particular day was tidy classrooms anyway, so I don't know why he got so worked up.

    About the only good thing about them was that it meant the - ahem - younger age groups were not near that Principal for more days of the year.
    My father was Deputy Head of John Masefield when Baker introduced the inset day. They were known in the school as B. days (bidets). The story went that you knew they were there, but didn't know how to use them.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 692

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Stereodog, some private schools are hugely expensive. Others could be afforded by many people but at the cost of forgoing holidays and other thing. The former will not be sunk or hit too hard by a VAT rise. The latter will be.


    Maybe headline fees but even the cheaper ones would also include loads of extra costs such as uniform, food, extra activities etc. Plus unless you only have one child you’re also essentially committing to sending all of them to a public school.

    In any case my point really was that for the vast majority of the population who presumably find it too expensive to contemplate or have moral objections then it won’t matter if fees are suddenly 20% more.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,366

    Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.

    Most people just use them a way to ext

    Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.

    One of the primary schools in my village puts all the inset days into one week - which happens to be next week - so that parents can get a week's holiday during what is technically 'term-time'.

    My son's school doesn't, and we also have an inset day tomorrow. I think many schools are, as Legoland's entry prices are higher than on the Sunday - £49 for tomorrow, compared to £44 today and £37 on Tuesday. Next Monday is £34. Unless some schools are having half term this week?

    (What is the point of 'inset days'?)
    Teacher training and (for the ones in September) planning for the upcoming year
    Why can this not be done outside termtime, when the kids are on holiday? ;)
    If a school is having a baker day in the middle of term it will be for specialist training (such as safeguarding) where the trainers aren’t available at the beginning of term.

    However tomorrow is just a. 1 day extension to whitsun half term so I don’t see the issue as even 1 extra day gives parents more choices for holidays
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited June 2
    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Eabhal said:

    Chris said:

    Apparently VAT on private schools is going to “dramatically shift the polls”

    Hopium at its finest.

    Why should it shift the polls, as it's already known to be Labour policy, and has already been a focus of attention in the campaign?
    Unless the Conservatives make it their primary campaign issue over the next 4 weeks, talk about it in the debates, FB ads and so on.

    It wouldn't even be the craziest thing they've done so far.
    It may fit in with the strategy of trying to get a few percent of votes back from Reform, but given the small percentage of privately educated children and their demographics, I can't see it doing much to a Labour lead of 20% or so.
    Even with a question framed in a negative way about private schools being forced to close there is quite a division of opinion. 14% of Tory voters think it a good thing if they do.


    That question is so leading it's not useful. No-one likes the idea of schools closing any more than they like the idea of children suffering inequality, which is the other side of the coin. So are people being asked about the badness of schools closing or are they being asked about private education policy?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    "All these schools will have to close!"

    Brought to you by the same people who said:

    "All these hounds will be put down!"

    ahead of the hunting ban.


    Of course, while folk on the left aren't keen on animals being killed, when it comes to the closure of private schools, that is a Brucie Bonus of the VAT policy.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Some constituency polls would be a nice thing
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    ...

    Morning all, more hotel bed nonsense from me. What a decidedly dull super polling Saturday with just the opinion of Opinium. Starting to edge towards best case for blues being lose by 13 to 15 and just beat 97s seat tally, but im still not fully convinced we havent reached the breaking point of online panels. Last chance saloons in this no horse town are manifestos and then the phone polls from 3 weeks out coming on stream diverging from onlines.
    That narrow path is very narrow innit? Narrow and not worth the trek.
    Here are my latest 'Labour losers' musings
    Were you up for Shabhana?
    Were you up for Wes?
    Were you up for Jess?
    At least one of those shall manifest in glorious technicolour.

    The Portillo shocks of the night could well be Streeting and Phillips.

    The Tories have been wise to shoehorn 3 million ex patriot voters into marginal seats. That is big number and will save dozens and dozens of seats.
    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    A good Head uses Inset days through the school year to sort out slips in staff standards, to ensure staff are up to speed on regulations, to cover important protocols such as discipline or medical emergencies (which DO happen) etc. Because you’ve got the whole staff there and they are focused, if you do them right they’re a really good way of raising standards.

    Inset after-school and evenings are also sometimes used.

    There’s a debate to be had about wellbeing and whether a goal of ‘economic productivity’ is really the only viable way of human existence but I’ll spare y’all that right now ;)


    Most state schools, pretty much all academies in academy chains, now have weekly 'directed time' where staff have to stay behind one or two evenings a week until 5 to sit in meetings and listen to presentations.

    It is the biggest waste of time in the history of universe.

    Still, could be worse, could be more inset days. I worked in one private school that had twelve inset days and one member of staff was threatened with violence for saying she couldn't turn up (part time and worked in a different school on that day). All we actually did on that particular day was tidy classrooms anyway, so I don't know why he got so worked up.

    About the only good thing about them was that it meant the - ahem - younger age groups were not near that Principal for more days of the year.
    My father was Deputy Head of John Masefield when Baker introduced the inset day. They were known in the school as B. days (bidets). The story went that you knew they were there, but didn't know how to use them.
    I don’t think ex-pats (whether ex-patriate or ex-patriot) will break Tory in the way they think or hope. The not insignificant number in Spain, for example, have not seen the Tories signature policy from the last election develop to their advantage.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entry/more-expats-to-vote-2024-but-will-it-change-much_uk_65b7af35e4b077c17ab5e886/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,354
    edited June 2
    Stereodog said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Stereodog, some private schools are hugely expensive. Others could be afforded by many people but at the cost of forgoing holidays and other thing. The former will not be sunk or hit too hard by a VAT rise. The latter will be.


    Maybe headline fees but even the cheaper ones would also include loads of extra costs such as uniform, food, extra activities etc. Plus unless you only have one child you’re also essentially committing to sending all of them to a public school.

    In any case my point really was that for the vast majority of the population who presumably find it too expensive to contemplate or have moral objections then it won’t matter if fees are suddenly 20% more.
    State schools also charge for uniforms, food and extra activities. In fact, most private schools of my acquaintance have already rolled food costs into the headline figure so arguably that's more honest.

    You can get Free School Meals on some state school funding pathways. But it isn't straightforward and the food is often rubbish anyway.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,212
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Eabhal said:

    Chris said:

    Apparently VAT on private schools is going to “dramatically shift the polls”

    Hopium at its finest.

    Why should it shift the polls, as it's already known to be Labour policy, and has already been a focus of attention in the campaign?
    Unless the Conservatives make it their primary campaign issue over the next 4 weeks, talk about it in the debates, FB ads and so on.

    It wouldn't even be the craziest thing they've done so far.
    It may fit in with the strategy of trying to get a few percent of votes back from Reform, but given the small percentage of privately educated children and their demographics, I can't see it doing much to a Labour lead of 20% or so.
    Even with a question framed in a negative way about private schools being forced to close there is quite a division of opinion. 14% of Tory voters think it a good thing if they do.


    So more people think it's a bad thing than a good thing then, and the policy is net unpopular?

    Good. There is still some common sense in this country.
    Well, it is a bad thing. It's attacking the wrong target in the wrong way.

    But as Anthony Jay and Jonathan Lynn noted, there are times when decisions are made that are wrong administratively, wrong economically, wrong morally and/or wrong socially but right politically. This is useful for Starmer in keeping the left onside and that's all that matters to him.
    Doesn’t that explain nearly all policy making?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627
    DougSeal said:

    Foxy said:

    DougSeal said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Apparently VAT on private schools is going to “dramatically shift the polls”

    Hopium at its finest.

    Why should it shift the polls, as it's already known to be Labour policy, and has already been a focus of attention in the campaign?
    It's a policy that the Tories need to be very careful with, even if it does make a difference to some voters.

    1) It is not LD policy, and particularly in areas with lots of private schools in the south it could shift anti-Tory votes to LD from Labour.

    2) A significant percentage of the population thinks private education is socially divisive and a bad thing entirely. This isn't just Corbynites. It contradicts the idea of Nashy Serves to get kids from different walks of life mixing.

    3) It puts the spotlight on the meme of Sunak's own wealth and privilege, and inability to relate to ordinary people.

    I really can't see it shifting polls now, and postal ballots go out in a week or so time, many being returned immediately.
    What/who is “Nashy Serves”?
    It is where 18 year olds are conscripted to peel spuds and square bash. Think of it as a gap year, only not on the beach in Thailand.
    National Service? What is this “Nashy Serves” bollocks?
    On the subject of bollocks, it seems we would be better off without...

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/article/2024/may/31/men-and-other-mammals-live-longer-if-they-are-castrated-says-researcher
  • eekeek Posts: 28,366
    edited June 2

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Stereodog, some private schools are hugely expensive. Others could be afforded by many people but at the cost of forgoing holidays and other thing. The former will not be sunk or hit too hard by a VAT rise. The latter will be.

    The increase in mortgages and a forthcoming reduction in primary aged children is already causing some of the latter type of schools to close.

    Although they all seem to be blaming Labour’s policy because - well you would blame anything that can’t be pinned back in you
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,354
    edited June 2

    "All these schools will have to close!"

    Brought to you by the same people who said:

    "All these hounds will be put down!"

    ahead of the hunting ban.


    Of course, while folk on the left aren't keen on animals being killed, when it comes to the closure of private schools, that is a Brucie Bonus of the VAT policy.

    Well, around a third of hunts have ceased operating since 2007 (175 against 250 then) and the average number of hounds per pack has dropped from 35 to 25.

    So there has been a significant reduction in the number of hounds. Around half.

    If the same happens in the number of private schools then the state sector may notice the pressure, although falling pupil numbers will probably mitigate it.

    But more seriously, the money Starmer expects to come in from this policy won't be there...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,863
    pigeon said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Apparently VAT on private schools is going to “dramatically shift the polls”

    Hopium at its finest.

    Why should it shift the polls, as it's already known to be Labour policy, and has already been a focus of attention in the campaign?
    It's a policy that the Tories need to be very careful with, even if it does make a difference to some voters.

    1) It is not LD policy, and particularly in areas with lots of private schools in the south it could shift anti-Tory votes to LD from Labour.

    2) A significant percentage of the population thinks private education is socially divisive and a bad thing entirely. This isn't just Corbynites. It contradicts the idea of Nashy Serves to get kids from different walks of life mixing.

    3) It puts the spotlight on the meme of Sunak's own wealth and privilege, and inability to relate to ordinary people.

    I really can't see it shifting polls now, and postal ballots go out in a week or so time, many being returned immediately.
    The second point is actually very pertinent, though the Conservatives don't really intend that the indentured servitude policy should apply to *their* offspring, of course. This different kids mixing excuse is garbage. It's really a wheeze to inflict misery on prole kids to please rich elderly voters, and provide extra helping hands for menial labouring chores in collapsing public services.

    They've already given the game away by telling us it's both compulsory and not backed by criminal sanction. In the unlikely event that they ever got the chance to do this to people, the punishments for non-compliance would doubtless come in the form of the withholding of certain grants and social security payments that might really hurt poor families, but which wealthier ones can easily do without or don't receive at all.
    The game they gave away was revealing the national service "policy" was little more than a slogan from a SpAd brainstorm, whose details they were filling in by making stuff up as they went on the wireless. Once more, Rishi had knocked his own party off-balance. It was designed for announcing, not implementing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,354
    eek said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Stereodog, some private schools are hugely expensive. Others could be afforded by many people but at the cost of forgoing holidays and other thing. The former will not be sunk or hit too hard by a VAT rise. The latter will be.

    The increase in mortgages and a forthcoming reduction in primary aged children is already causing some of the latter type of schools to close.

    Although they all seem to be blaming Kabours policy because - well you would blame anything that can’t be pinned back in you
    I don't see why they'd be blamed for rising mortgages or falling birth rates either?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,366
    ydoethur said:

    "All these schools will have to close!"

    Brought to you by the same people who said:

    "All these hounds will be put down!"

    ahead of the hunting ban.


    Of course, while folk on the left aren't keen on animals being killed, when it comes to the closure of private schools, that is a Brucie Bonus of the VAT policy.

    Well, around a third of hunts have ceased operating since 2007 (175 against 250 then) and the average number of hounds per pack has dropped from 35 to 25.

    So there has been a significant reduction in the number of hounds. Around half.

    If the same happens in the number of private schools then the state sector may notice the pressure, although falling pupil numbers will probably mitigate it.

    But more seriously, the money Starmer expects to come in from this policy won't be there...
    The lack of government income is a long term issue - private school closures will please an awful lot of people on the left - for many it’s the desired aim, the VAT is just a means of achieving their aim
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    DougSeal said:

    ...

    Morning all, more hotel bed nonsense from me. What a decidedly dull super polling Saturday with just the opinion of Opinium. Starting to edge towards best case for blues being lose by 13 to 15 and just beat 97s seat tally, but im still not fully convinced we havent reached the breaking point of online panels. Last chance saloons in this no horse town are manifestos and then the phone polls from 3 weeks out coming on stream diverging from onlines.
    That narrow path is very narrow innit? Narrow and not worth the trek.
    Here are my latest 'Labour losers' musings
    Were you up for Shabhana?
    Were you up for Wes?
    Were you up for Jess?
    At least one of those shall manifest in glorious technicolour.

    The Portillo shocks of the night could well be Streeting and Phillips.

    The Tories have been wise to shoehorn 3 million ex patriot voters into marginal seats. That is big number and will save dozens and dozens of seats.
    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    A good Head uses Inset days through the school year to sort out slips in staff standards, to ensure staff are up to speed on regulations, to cover important protocols such as discipline or medical emergencies (which DO happen) etc. Because you’ve got the whole staff there and they are focused, if you do them right they’re a really good way of raising standards.

    Inset after-school and evenings are also sometimes used.

    There’s a debate to be had about wellbeing and whether a goal of ‘economic productivity’ is really the only viable way of human existence but I’ll spare y’all that right now ;)


    Most state schools, pretty much all academies in academy chains, now have weekly 'directed time' where staff have to stay behind one or two evenings a week until 5 to sit in meetings and listen to presentations.

    It is the biggest waste of time in the history of universe.

    Still, could be worse, could be more inset days. I worked in one private school that had twelve inset days and one member of staff was threatened with violence for saying she couldn't turn up (part time and worked in a different school on that day). All we actually did on that particular day was tidy classrooms anyway, so I don't know why he got so worked up.

    About the only good thing about them was that it meant the - ahem - younger age groups were not near that Principal for more days of the year.
    My father was Deputy Head of John Masefield when Baker introduced the inset day. They were known in the school as B. days (bidets). The story went that you knew they were there, but didn't know how to use them.
    I don’t think ex-pats (whether ex-patriate or ex-patriot) will break Tory in the way they think or hope. The not insignificant number in Spain, for example, have not seen the Tories signature policy from the last election develop to their advantage.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entry/more-expats-to-vote-2024-but-will-it-change-much_uk_65b7af35e4b077c17ab5e886/
    Surely it would be easy to find a proxy. Namely the Conservative Party agent for a marginal seat.

    Years ago I read that White South African voters were similarly utilised for 1992. I have been unable to corroborate that story on 'tinternet, so perhaps I dreamed it.

    If it is just 300,000 extra voters, if the Tories have gamed them correctly,some significant damage could still be done. I love a conspiracy!
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    I love the little nugget in this piece that Liz Truss has set up a group called Popular Conservatism (no laughing at the back) that thinks taking an axe to stamp duty and inheritance tax should be a core Conservative principle. Absolutely convinced this Trussite faction will not prove popular and it damn well isn’t conservatism. Hunt also kinda gives the game away that nothing the government was doing was moving the dial so why delay.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13484311/Tory-party-Rishi-Sunak-tax-cuts-election.html
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Stereodog, some private schools are hugely expensive. Others could be afforded by many people but at the cost of forgoing holidays and other thing. The former will not be sunk or hit too hard by a VAT rise. The latter will be.

    Do many families spend £17 500 on holidays each year? That is the average independent school fees before VAT.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,212
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Stereodog, some private schools are hugely expensive. Others could be afforded by many people but at the cost of forgoing holidays and other thing. The former will not be sunk or hit too hard by a VAT rise. The latter will be.

    The increase in mortgages and a forthcoming reduction in primary aged children is already causing some of the latter type of schools to close.

    Although they all seem to be blaming Kabours policy because - well you would blame anything that can’t be pinned back in you
    I don't see why they'd be blamed for rising mortgages or falling birth rates either?

    "Who decides that the workday is from 9 to 5, instead of 11 to 4? Who decides that the hemlines will be below the knee this year and short again next year? Who draws up the borders, controls the currency, handles all of the decisions that happen transparently around us?"


    The entire world is in the control of a bunch of mates from the Eton. So the private schools are to blame for interest rates and birth rates.

    They are under your bed.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,354
    ToryJim said:

    I love the little nugget in this piece that Liz Truss has set up a group called Popular Conservatism (no laughing at the back) that thinks taking an axe to stamp duty and inheritance tax should be a core Conservative principle. Absolutely convinced this Trussite faction will not prove popular and it damn well isn’t conservatism. Hunt also kinda gives the game away that nothing the government was doing was moving the dial so why delay.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13484311/Tory-party-Rishi-Sunak-tax-cuts-election.html

    'Taking an axe to stamp duty' is not a bad idea at all.

    Or indeed inheritance tax.

    Both are complex taxes that are chronically mismanaged and cause endless trouble.

    The snag, with Truss, is we can be damn sure she hasn't worked out how to pay for it.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Foxy said:

    DougSeal said:

    Foxy said:

    DougSeal said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Apparently VAT on private schools is going to “dramatically shift the polls”

    Hopium at its finest.

    Why should it shift the polls, as it's already known to be Labour policy, and has already been a focus of attention in the campaign?
    It's a policy that the Tories need to be very careful with, even if it does make a difference to some voters.

    1) It is not LD policy, and particularly in areas with lots of private schools in the south it could shift anti-Tory votes to LD from Labour.

    2) A significant percentage of the population thinks private education is socially divisive and a bad thing entirely. This isn't just Corbynites. It contradicts the idea of Nashy Serves to get kids from different walks of life mixing.

    3) It puts the spotlight on the meme of Sunak's own wealth and privilege, and inability to relate to ordinary people.

    I really can't see it shifting polls now, and postal ballots go out in a week or so time, many being returned immediately.
    What/who is “Nashy Serves”?
    It is where 18 year olds are conscripted to peel spuds and square bash. Think of it as a gap year, only not on the beach in Thailand.
    National Service? What is this “Nashy Serves” bollocks?
    On the subject of bollocks, it seems we would be better off without...

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/article/2024/may/31/men-and-other-mammals-live-longer-if-they-are-castrated-says-researcher
    Sure male lives would be longer but they wouldn’t be as productive…
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    DougSeal said:

    ...

    Morning all, more hotel bed nonsense from me. What a decidedly dull super polling Saturday with just the opinion of Opinium. Starting to edge towards best case for blues being lose by 13 to 15 and just beat 97s seat tally, but im still not fully convinced we havent reached the breaking point of online panels. Last chance saloons in this no horse town are manifestos and then the phone polls from 3 weeks out coming on stream diverging from onlines.
    That narrow path is very narrow innit? Narrow and not worth the trek.
    Here are my latest 'Labour losers' musings
    Were you up for Shabhana?
    Were you up for Wes?
    Were you up for Jess?
    At least one of those shall manifest in glorious technicolour.

    The Portillo shocks of the night could well be Streeting and Phillips.

    The Tories have been wise to shoehorn 3 million ex patriot voters into marginal seats. That is big number and will save dozens and dozens of seats.
    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    A good Head uses Inset days through the school year to sort out slips in staff standards, to ensure staff are up to speed on regulations, to cover important protocols such as discipline or medical emergencies (which DO happen) etc. Because you’ve got the whole staff there and they are focused, if you do them right they’re a really good way of raising standards.

    Inset after-school and evenings are also sometimes used.

    There’s a debate to be had about wellbeing and whether a goal of ‘economic productivity’ is really the only viable way of human existence but I’ll spare y’all that right now ;)


    Most state schools, pretty much all academies in academy chains, now have weekly 'directed time' where staff have to stay behind one or two evenings a week until 5 to sit in meetings and listen to presentations.

    It is the biggest waste of time in the history of universe.

    Still, could be worse, could be more inset days. I worked in one private school that had twelve inset days and one member of staff was threatened with violence for saying she couldn't turn up (part time and worked in a different school on that day). All we actually did on that particular day was tidy classrooms anyway, so I don't know why he got so worked up.

    About the only good thing about them was that it meant the - ahem - younger age groups were not near that Principal for more days of the year.
    My father was Deputy Head of John Masefield when Baker introduced the inset day. They were known in the school as B. days (bidets). The story went that you knew they were there, but didn't know how to use them.
    I don’t think ex-pats (whether ex-patriate or ex-patriot) will break Tory in the way they think or hope. The not insignificant number in Spain, for example, have not seen the Tories signature policy from the last election develop to their advantage.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entry/more-expats-to-vote-2024-but-will-it-change-much_uk_65b7af35e4b077c17ab5e886/
    They're migrants. Not ex-pats.

    They're not abroad on a 3 month work assignment. They've gone there to live.

    Of course, because the word migrant is used in such a disparaging way when referring to people coming to the UK, it cannot possibly be used to describe the gallant British pensioners on the Costas, reading the Daily Mail and complaining about foreigners.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,366
    ydoethur said:

    ToryJim said:

    I love the little nugget in this piece that Liz Truss has set up a group called Popular Conservatism (no laughing at the back) that thinks taking an axe to stamp duty and inheritance tax should be a core Conservative principle. Absolutely convinced this Trussite faction will not prove popular and it damn well isn’t conservatism. Hunt also kinda gives the game away that nothing the government was doing was moving the dial so why delay.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13484311/Tory-party-Rishi-Sunak-tax-cuts-election.html

    'Taking an axe to stamp duty' is not a bad idea at all.

    Or indeed inheritance tax.

    Both are complex taxes that are chronically mismanaged and cause endless trouble.

    The snag, with Truss, is we can be damn sure she hasn't worked out how to pay for it.
    Taking an axe to inheritance tax is a bad idea because it would allow a more ruthless party to just declare the inheritance as income received and let it be taxed that way.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,863
    ydoethur said:

    Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.

    Most people just use them a way to ext

    Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.

    One of the primary schools in my village puts all the inset days into one week - which happens to be next week - so that parents can get a week's holiday during what is technically 'term-time'.

    My son's school doesn't, and we also have an inset day tomorrow. I think many schools are, as Legoland's entry prices are higher than on the Sunday - £49 for tomorrow, compared to £44 today and £37 on Tuesday. Next Monday is £34. Unless some schools are having half term this week?

    (What is the point of 'inset days'?)
    Teacher training and (for the ones in September) planning for the upcoming year
    Why can this not be done outside termtime, when the kids are on holiday? ;)
    Because It Has Always Been Done That Way.

    Like many other ancient traditions, probably actually dates to a mistake by Whitehall in 1957.
    1989 I think.
    Yes, often known as Baker Days after Conservative Education Secretary Ken Baker.
    Wasn't it originally designed to instruct teachers in the new National Curriculum, but then kept anyway because it seemed useful?
    Possibly. Ken Baker was the Michael Gove of his day in that he did change education considerably, with the national curriculum, GCSEs, SATs and probably more (oh yes, and Baker Days or inset days). Ending corporal punishment too.

    There are probably long histories of education devoted to the 30-ish year stretch from Baker via Labour's Adonis & Blunkett, through to Gove, during which our whole education system was reshaped, possibly for the better.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 692
    ydoethur said:

    Stereodog said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Stereodog, some private schools are hugely expensive. Others could be afforded by many people but at the cost of forgoing holidays and other thing. The former will not be sunk or hit too hard by a VAT rise. The latter will be.


    Maybe headline fees but even the cheaper ones would also include loads of extra costs such as uniform, food, extra activities etc. Plus unless you only have one child you’re also essentially committing to sending all of them to a public school.

    In any case my point really was that for the vast majority of the population who presumably find it too expensive to contemplate or have moral objections then it won’t matter if fees are suddenly 20% more.
    State schools also charge for uniforms, food and extra activities. In fact, most private schools of my acquaintance have already rolled food costs into the headline figure so arguably that's more honest.

    You can get Free School Meals on some state school funding pathways. But it isn't straightforward and the food is often rubbish anyway.
    True but the education bit is free. I’m not trying to argue that public schools are bad value or anything. I’m just questioning what relevance a hike in school fees would be to the 99.4% of families who don’t send their children to public schools. Moonrabbit seems to think that a huge number of these families are desperate to send their children to a public school and would be on the verge of doing so were it not for the VAT policy.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    ydoethur said:

    ToryJim said:

    I love the little nugget in this piece that Liz Truss has set up a group called Popular Conservatism (no laughing at the back) that thinks taking an axe to stamp duty and inheritance tax should be a core Conservative principle. Absolutely convinced this Trussite faction will not prove popular and it damn well isn’t conservatism. Hunt also kinda gives the game away that nothing the government was doing was moving the dial so why delay.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13484311/Tory-party-Rishi-Sunak-tax-cuts-election.html

    'Taking an axe to stamp duty' is not a bad idea at all.

    Or indeed inheritance tax.

    Both are complex taxes that are chronically mismanaged and cause endless trouble.

    The snag, with Truss, is we can be damn sure she hasn't worked out how to pay for it.
    Indeed. I’m sure she’d say they would pay for themselves or some other clown show economics
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,354
    Foxy said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Stereodog, some private schools are hugely expensive. Others could be afforded by many people but at the cost of forgoing holidays and other thing. The former will not be sunk or hit too hard by a VAT rise. The latter will be.

    Do many families spend £17 500 on holidays each year? That is the average independent school fees before VAT.

    That average is skewed because it includes the 'hugely expensive private schools' Mr Dancer referenced.

    Here's a local example. Just over £9,000 a year for the top end.

    https://www.castlehouseschool.co.uk/school-fees

    Here's another one. About the same.

    https://stdominicsgrammarschool.co.uk/information/fees/

    I can imagine that somebody might spend £6000 on a foreign holiday. Or on leasing a new car. Cut those out by staying in Cornwall or buying a second hand vehicle and the maths isn't far out.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,214

    Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.

    Most people just use them a way to ext

    Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.

    One of the primary schools in my village puts all the inset days into one week - which happens to be next week - so that parents can get a week's holiday during what is technically 'term-time'.

    My son's school doesn't, and we also have an inset day tomorrow. I think many schools are, as Legoland's entry prices are higher than on the Sunday - £49 for tomorrow, compared to £44 today and £37 on Tuesday. Next Monday is £34. Unless some schools are having half term this week?

    (What is the point of 'inset days'?)
    Teacher training and (for the ones in September) planning for the upcoming year
    Why can this not be done outside termtime, when the kids are on holiday? ;)
    They were. When Kenneth Baker decreed they should happen, he took 5 days off the school holidays and made them INSET days. Hence the old name Baker Days. These INSET days aren't a surprise by the way, schools and councils publish these at least a year in advance. Perhaps parents need to plan babysitting a little better.

    :neutral:
    As an aside, I know of a school where they suddenly decreed kids had to come back from summer holidays two days earlier than expected, as they had miscalculated the number of days they had planned to teach, and it was under the minimum needed (I've no idea what legislation that's under). The problem is they did not communicate the change well to the parents, so some parents did not send their kids in. Or were still on holiday...

    As for your last line; that is not easy for many parents. Teachers are not going to gain *any* sympathy if they try to say that...
    True, but it's also a case study in "efficiency savings = passing the cost onto someone else".

    Go back a couple of decades, and at least some of the CPD needs of schools were met externally. Individual teachers could book courses relevant to them and have a day out of school (fancy!) and lessons would be covered.

    That's largely gone now, because it's not frontline teaching and so there's no money for it. But because there's still the five days a year requirement, you get schools closing for the day so that Assistant Heads can read PowerPoints to people. Undoubtedly worse all round, but so much cheaper.

    Semi-related thought... Weren't there shops that would open late one day a week for staff training? You don't see that any more.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    DougSeal said:

    ...

    Morning all, more hotel bed nonsense from me. What a decidedly dull super polling Saturday with just the opinion of Opinium. Starting to edge towards best case for blues being lose by 13 to 15 and just beat 97s seat tally, but im still not fully convinced we havent reached the breaking point of online panels. Last chance saloons in this no horse town are manifestos and then the phone polls from 3 weeks out coming on stream diverging from onlines.
    That narrow path is very narrow innit? Narrow and not worth the trek.
    Here are my latest 'Labour losers' musings
    Were you up for Shabhana?
    Were you up for Wes?
    Were you up for Jess?
    At least one of those shall manifest in glorious technicolour.

    The Portillo shocks of the night could well be Streeting and Phillips.

    The Tories have been wise to shoehorn 3 million ex patriot voters into marginal seats. That is big number and will save dozens and dozens of seats.
    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    A good Head uses Inset days through the school year to sort out slips in staff standards, to ensure staff are up to speed on regulations, to cover important protocols such as discipline or medical emergencies (which DO happen) etc. Because you’ve got the whole staff there and they are focused, if you do them right they’re a really good way of raising standards.

    Inset after-school and evenings are also sometimes used.

    There’s a debate to be had about wellbeing and whether a goal of ‘economic productivity’ is really the only viable way of human existence but I’ll spare y’all that right now ;)


    Most state schools, pretty much all academies in academy chains, now have weekly 'directed time' where staff have to stay behind one or two evenings a week until 5 to sit in meetings and listen to presentations.

    It is the biggest waste of time in the history of universe.

    Still, could be worse, could be more inset days. I worked in one private school that had twelve inset days and one member of staff was threatened with violence for saying she couldn't turn up (part time and worked in a different school on that day). All we actually did on that particular day was tidy classrooms anyway, so I don't know why he got so worked up.

    About the only good thing about them was that it meant the - ahem - younger age groups were not near that Principal for more days of the year.
    My father was Deputy Head of John Masefield when Baker introduced the inset day. They were known in the school as B. days (bidets). The story went that you knew they were there, but didn't know how to use them.
    I don’t think ex-pats (whether ex-patriate or ex-patriot) will break Tory in the way they think or hope. The not insignificant number in Spain, for example, have not seen the Tories signature policy from the last election develop to their advantage.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entry/more-expats-to-vote-2024-but-will-it-change-much_uk_65b7af35e4b077c17ab5e886/
    Surely it would be easy to find a proxy. Namely the Conservative Party agent for a marginal seat.

    Years ago I read that White South African voters were similarly utilised for 1992. I have been unable to corroborate that story on 'tinternet, so perhaps I dreamed it.

    If it is just 300,000 extra voters, if the Tories have gamed them correctly,some significant damage could still be done. I love a conspiracy!
    That’s not the point. It’s possible many will vote but few will vote Tory. You’re falling into the same assumption that the Tories are, that there is a vast amount of gammon on the Costa del Sol chafing at the bit to vote Blue. There isn’t necessarily. Even The Spectator questions that assumption-

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/will-expat-voters-really-help-the-tories-at-the-next-election/

    It’s a stereotype but nothing more. In fact Brexit has made life for many ex-pats more difficult and, while there isn’t an obviously rejoin option on the ballot, the long road there does not lead through a Tory Government. Many will vote LLD. Many of the stereotypes will vote Reform.

    As for the ex-pats outside Europe, in Australia notably, I haven’t seen any data.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883

    Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.

    Most people just use them a way to ext

    Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.

    One of the primary schools in my village puts all the inset days into one week - which happens to be next week - so that parents can get a week's holiday during what is technically 'term-time'.

    My son's school doesn't, and we also have an inset day tomorrow. I think many schools are, as Legoland's entry prices are higher than on the Sunday - £49 for tomorrow, compared to £44 today and £37 on Tuesday. Next Monday is £34. Unless some schools are having half term this week?

    (What is the point of 'inset days'?)
    Teacher training and (for the ones in September) planning for the upcoming year
    Why can this not be done outside termtime, when the kids are on holiday? ;)
    They were. When Kenneth Baker decreed they should happen, he took 5 days off the school holidays and made them INSET days. Hence the old name Baker Days. These INSET days aren't a surprise by the way, schools and councils publish these at least a year in advance. Perhaps parents need to plan babysitting a little better.

    :neutral:
    As an aside, I know of a school where they suddenly decreed kids had to come back from summer holidays two days earlier than expected, as they had miscalculated the number of days they had planned to teach, and it was under the minimum needed (I've no idea what legislation that's under). The problem is they did not communicate the change well to the parents, so some parents did not send their kids in. Or were still on holiday...

    As for your last line; that is not easy for many parents. Teachers are not going to gain *any* sympathy if they try to say that...
    It is what it is
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Stereodog, some private schools are hugely expensive. Others could be afforded by many people but at the cost of forgoing holidays and other thing. The former will not be sunk or hit too hard by a VAT rise. The latter will be.

    Do many families spend £17 500 on holidays each year? That is the average independent school fees before VAT.

    That average is skewed because it includes the 'hugely expensive private schools' Mr Dancer referenced.

    Here's a local example. Just over £9,000 a year for the top end.

    https://www.castlehouseschool.co.uk/school-fees

    Here's another one. About the same.

    https://stdominicsgrammarschool.co.uk/information/fees/

    I can imagine that somebody might spend £6000 on a foreign holiday. Or on leasing a new car. Cut those out by staying in Cornwall or buying a second hand vehicle and the maths isn't far out.
    I don't notice a large number of old bangers on the school run at our local private schools. Mostly new Mercs, Teslas, BMW and Range Rovers.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    DougSeal said:

    The electorate may detest VAT on private schools but not as much as they want to inflict a punishment beating on the Tories. That’s what this election is all about. I’ll agree with @Casino_Royale that it is not a great way to decide policy for the next five years but, as the world’s worst during instructor said, them’s the breaks.

    I maintain that it Johnson had just asked Owen Paterson to take his suspension like a man he would have had more capital to spend on defending Partygate. He might still be there and the Tories competitive. That was the turning point.

    Hard to put so much on that moment, but as you say it was damaging. Particularly in telling the rest of the MPs to take one for the team, then backing down anyway. And ultimately it was the MPs getting fed up which ruined him - polls were not great, but it was that they thought he would do worse and kept dragging them into it that sunk him.

    Of course they probably regret that now, but it was understandable.
    ToryJim said:

    I love the little nugget in this piece that Liz Truss has set up a group called Popular Conservatism (no laughing at the back) that thinks taking an axe to stamp duty and inheritance tax should be a core Conservative principle. Absolutely convinced this Trussite faction will not prove popular and it damn well isn’t conservatism. Hunt also kinda gives the game away that nothing the government was doing was moving the dial so why delay.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13484311/Tory-party-Rishi-Sunak-tax-cuts-election.html

    Isn't putting popular in the name of a group like calling your country the "people's democratic republic" in terms of inaccurate description?

    At the very least it tempts fate unwisely.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,212

    DougSeal said:

    ...

    Morning all, more hotel bed nonsense from me. What a decidedly dull super polling Saturday with just the opinion of Opinium. Starting to edge towards best case for blues being lose by 13 to 15 and just beat 97s seat tally, but im still not fully convinced we havent reached the breaking point of online panels. Last chance saloons in this no horse town are manifestos and then the phone polls from 3 weeks out coming on stream diverging from onlines.
    That narrow path is very narrow innit? Narrow and not worth the trek.
    Here are my latest 'Labour losers' musings
    Were you up for Shabhana?
    Were you up for Wes?
    Were you up for Jess?
    At least one of those shall manifest in glorious technicolour.

    The Portillo shocks of the night could well be Streeting and Phillips.

    The Tories have been wise to shoehorn 3 million ex patriot voters into marginal seats. That is big number and will save dozens and dozens of seats.
    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    A good Head uses Inset days through the school year to sort out slips in staff standards, to ensure staff are up to speed on regulations, to cover important protocols such as discipline or medical emergencies (which DO happen) etc. Because you’ve got the whole staff there and they are focused, if you do them right they’re a really good way of raising standards.

    Inset after-school and evenings are also sometimes used.

    There’s a debate to be had about wellbeing and whether a goal of ‘economic productivity’ is really the only viable way of human existence but I’ll spare y’all that right now ;)


    Most state schools, pretty much all academies in academy chains, now have weekly 'directed time' where staff have to stay behind one or two evenings a week until 5 to sit in meetings and listen to presentations.

    It is the biggest waste of time in the history of universe.

    Still, could be worse, could be more inset days. I worked in one private school that had twelve inset days and one member of staff was threatened with violence for saying she couldn't turn up (part time and worked in a different school on that day). All we actually did on that particular day was tidy classrooms anyway, so I don't know why he got so worked up.

    About the only good thing about them was that it meant the - ahem - younger age groups were not near that Principal for more days of the year.
    My father was Deputy Head of John Masefield when Baker introduced the inset day. They were known in the school as B. days (bidets). The story went that you knew they were there, but didn't know how to use them.
    I don’t think ex-pats (whether ex-patriate or ex-patriot) will break Tory in the way they think or hope. The not insignificant number in Spain, for example, have not seen the Tories signature policy from the last election develop to their advantage.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entry/more-expats-to-vote-2024-but-will-it-change-much_uk_65b7af35e4b077c17ab5e886/
    They're migrants. Not ex-pats.

    They're not abroad on a 3 month work assignment. They've gone there to live.

    Of course, because the word migrant is used in such a disparaging way when referring to people coming to the UK, it cannot possibly be used to describe the gallant British pensioners on the Costas, reading the Daily Mail and complaining about foreigners.
    Equally from the left - all migrants are noble heroic types. Apart from British “expats” who are all Gammon Fascist Criminals.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    DougSeal said:

    The electorate may detest VAT on private schools but not as much as they want to inflict a punishment beating on the Tories. That’s what this election is all about. I’ll agree with @Casino_Royale that it is not a great way to decide policy for the next five years but, as the world’s worst during instructor said, them’s the breaks.

    I maintain that it Johnson had just asked Owen Paterson to take his suspension like a man he would have had more capital to spend on defending Partygate. He might still be there and the Tories competitive. That was the turning point.

    Hard to put so much on that moment, but as you say it was damaging. Particularly in telling the rest of the MPs to take one for the team, then backing down anyway. And ultimately it was the MPs getting fed up which ruined him - polls were not great, but it was that they thought he would do worse and kept dragging them into it that sunk him.

    Of course they probably regret that now, but it was understandable.
  • Alasdair_Alasdair_ Posts: 17

    DougSeal said:

    ...

    Morning all, more hotel bed nonsense from me. What a decidedly dull super polling Saturday with just the opinion of Opinium. Starting to edge towards best case for blues being lose by 13 to 15 and just beat 97s seat tally, but im still not fully convinced we havent reached the breaking point of online panels. Last chance saloons in this no horse town are manifestos and then the phone polls from 3 weeks out coming on stream diverging from onlines.
    That narrow path is very narrow innit? Narrow and not worth the trek.
    Here are my latest 'Labour losers' musings
    Were you up for Shabhana?
    Were you up for Wes?
    Were you up for Jess?
    At least one of those shall manifest in glorious technicolour.

    The Portillo shocks of the night could well be Streeting and Phillips.

    The Tories have been wise to shoehorn 3 million ex patriot voters into marginal seats. That is big number and will save dozens and dozens of seats.
    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    A good Head uses Inset days through the school year to sort out slips in staff standards, to ensure staff are up to speed on regulations, to cover important protocols such as discipline or medical emergencies (which DO happen) etc. Because you’ve got the whole staff there and they are focused, if you do them right they’re a really good way of raising standards.

    Inset after-school and evenings are also sometimes used.

    There’s a debate to be had about wellbeing and whether a goal of ‘economic productivity’ is really the only viable way of human existence but I’ll spare y’all that right now ;)


    Most state schools, pretty much all academies in academy chains, now have weekly 'directed time' where staff have to stay behind one or two evenings a week until 5 to sit in meetings and listen to presentations.

    It is the biggest waste of time in the history of universe.

    Still, could be worse, could be more inset days. I worked in one private school that had twelve inset days and one member of staff was threatened with violence for saying she couldn't turn up (part time and worked in a different school on that day). All we actually did on that particular day was tidy classrooms anyway, so I don't know why he got so worked up.

    About the only good thing about them was that it meant the - ahem - younger age groups were not near that Principal for more days of the year.
    My father was Deputy Head of John Masefield when Baker introduced the inset day. They were known in the school as B. days (bidets). The story went that you knew they were there, but didn't know how to use them.
    I don’t think ex-pats (whether ex-patriate or ex-patriot) will break Tory in the way they think or hope. The not insignificant number in Spain, for example, have not seen the Tories signature policy from the last election develop to their advantage.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entry/more-expats-to-vote-2024-but-will-it-change-much_uk_65b7af35e4b077c17ab5e886/
    Surely it would be easy to find a proxy. Namely the Conservative Party agent for a marginal seat.

    Years ago I read that White South African voters were similarly utilised for 1992. I have been unable to corroborate that story on 'tinternet, so perhaps I dreamed it.

    If it is just 300,000 extra voters, if the Tories have gamed them correctly,some significant damage could still be done. I love a conspiracy!
    The registration is in the costituency of your last electoral registration in the UK. There is no choice about where to register. Expat registrations will be spread throughout the country.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,354
    Stereodog said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stereodog said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Stereodog, some private schools are hugely expensive. Others could be afforded by many people but at the cost of forgoing holidays and other thing. The former will not be sunk or hit too hard by a VAT rise. The latter will be.


    Maybe headline fees but even the cheaper ones would also include loads of extra costs such as uniform, food, extra activities etc. Plus unless you only have one child you’re also essentially committing to sending all of them to a public school.

    In any case my point really was that for the vast majority of the population who presumably find it too expensive to contemplate or have moral objections then it won’t matter if fees are suddenly 20% more.
    State schools also charge for uniforms, food and extra activities. In fact, most private schools of my acquaintance have already rolled food costs into the headline figure so arguably that's more honest.

    You can get Free School Meals on some state school funding pathways. But it isn't straightforward and the food is often rubbish anyway.
    True but the education bit is free. I’m not trying to argue that public schools are bad value or anything. I’m just questioning what relevance a hike in school fees would be to the 99.4% of families who don’t send their children to public schools. Moonrabbit seems to think that a huge number of these families are desperate to send their children to a public school and would be on the verge of doing so were it not for the VAT policy.
    But it's not 99.4% (unless you mean 'public schools' rather than 'private schools')

    Only around 7% of children are in private education at any time. But around 20% will have attended a private school at some point in their school career. That's also skewed by area, of course. I think there's only three private schools in the whole of Northumberland, but a third of children in London will have been privately educated at one time or another. Corbyn himself, for example, was privately educated until the age of 11 and then he went to a school that was de facto a private school even though the tuition fees were paid by the state.

    I'm not convinced this policy will have as big an impact as Moonrabbit thinks, but I do think it's likely to have a wider and more damaging impact than Labour realises.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    edited June 2
    Foxy said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Stereodog, some private schools are hugely expensive. Others could be afforded by many people but at the cost of forgoing holidays and other thing. The former will not be sunk or hit too hard by a VAT rise. The latter will be.

    Do many families spend £17 500 on holidays each year? That is the average independent school fees before VAT.

    Yes that’s roughly what we pay, for one child at a bog standard day school in SE London (with illustrious alumni including James Cleverly).

    That’s some holiday. Now imagine if you had 2 children of secondary school age.

    But again, the Tory campaign against this isn’t aimed at parents of schoolchildren, who already know this. It’s aimed at pensioners who remember private school being something hard working middle class families could afford by foregoing a foreign holiday, back in the 70s or 80s.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Stereodog, some private schools are hugely expensive. Others could be afforded by many people but at the cost of forgoing holidays and other thing. The former will not be sunk or hit too hard by a VAT rise. The latter will be.

    The increase in mortgages and a forthcoming reduction in primary aged children is already causing some of the latter type of schools to close.

    Although they all seem to be blaming Kabours policy because - well you would blame anything that can’t be pinned back in you
    I don't see why they'd be blamed for rising mortgages or falling birth rates either?

    "Who decides that the workday is from 9 to 5, instead of 11 to 4? Who decides that the hemlines will be below the knee this year and short again next year? Who draws up the borders, controls the currency, handles all of the decisions that happen transparently around us?"


    The entire world is in the control of a bunch of mates from the Eton. So the private schools are to blame for interest rates and birth rates.

    They are under your bed.
    The bit in italics just seems like a cut verse from the Stonecutters song from the Simpsons.

    "Who controls the British Crown? Who keeps the metric system down? We do!"
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ...
    ydoethur said:

    ToryJim said:

    I love the little nugget in this piece that Liz Truss has set up a group called Popular Conservatism (no laughing at the back) that thinks taking an axe to stamp duty and inheritance tax should be a core Conservative principle. Absolutely convinced this Trussite faction will not prove popular and it damn well isn’t conservatism. Hunt also kinda gives the game away that nothing the government was doing was moving the dial so why delay.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13484311/Tory-party-Rishi-Sunak-tax-cuts-election.html

    'Taking an axe to stamp duty' is not a bad idea at all.

    Or indeed inheritance tax.

    Both are complex taxes that are chronically mismanaged and cause endless trouble.

    The snag, with Truss, is we can be damn sure she hasn't worked out how to pay for it.
    That seems to be an error in Labour Party taxation policy too. How does one pay for it?

    At least with the Conservatives they are explaining away tax cuts by cutting waste like teachers, healthcare workers, emergency service providers and the social safety net.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    Wes Streeting gave a good defence for the VAT on private schools on QT .

    The vast majority of kids going to private schools come from families where the fees are loose change !

    As for parents who really juggle the finances to be able to afford the fees it’s of course unfortunate and I can understand why they would be angry .

    The Labour policy is really just a sop to the left in the party , raises relatively small sums but you’ll be hard pressed to find much sympathy amongst most of the public.

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044
    ydoethur said:

    Stereodog said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stereodog said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Stereodog, some private schools are hugely expensive. Others could be afforded by many people but at the cost of forgoing holidays and other thing. The former will not be sunk or hit too hard by a VAT rise. The latter will be.


    Maybe headline fees but even the cheaper ones would also include loads of extra costs such as uniform, food, extra activities etc. Plus unless you only have one child you’re also essentially committing to sending all of them to a public school.

    In any case my point really was that for the vast majority of the population who presumably find it too expensive to contemplate or have moral objections then it won’t matter if fees are suddenly 20% more.
    State schools also charge for uniforms, food and extra activities. In fact, most private schools of my acquaintance have already rolled food costs into the headline figure so arguably that's more honest.

    You can get Free School Meals on some state school funding pathways. But it isn't straightforward and the food is often rubbish anyway.
    True but the education bit is free. I’m not trying to argue that public schools are bad value or anything. I’m just questioning what relevance a hike in school fees would be to the 99.4% of families who don’t send their children to public schools. Moonrabbit seems to think that a huge number of these families are desperate to send their children to a public school and would be on the verge of doing so were it not for the VAT policy.
    But it's not 99.4% (unless you mean 'public schools' rather than 'private schools')

    Only around 7% of children are in private education at any time. But around 20% will have attended a private school at some point in their school career. That's also skewed by area, of course. I think there's only three private schools in the whole of Northumberland, but a third of children in London will have been privately educated at one time or another. Corbyn himself, for example, was privately educated until the age of 11 and then he went to a school that was de facto a private school even though the tuition fees were paid by the state.

    I'm not convinced this policy will have as big an impact as Moonrabbit thinks, but I do think it's likely to have a wider and more damaging impact than Labour realises.
    So, without this policy, they’d be in track to get 500 rather than merely 450 seats?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    The private school closing down in Truss constituency is obviously of limited influence but probably enough to ensure shes safe even in a Find Out Now MRP scenario. The good burghers of Downham say non au Keir
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071

    pigeon said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Apparently VAT on private schools is going to “dramatically shift the polls”

    Hopium at its finest.

    Why should it shift the polls, as it's already known to be Labour policy, and has already been a focus of attention in the campaign?
    It's a policy that the Tories need to be very careful with, even if it does make a difference to some voters.

    1) It is not LD policy, and particularly in areas with lots of private schools in the south it could shift anti-Tory votes to LD from Labour.

    2) A significant percentage of the population thinks private education is socially divisive and a bad thing entirely. This isn't just Corbynites. It contradicts the idea of Nashy Serves to get kids from different walks of life mixing.

    3) It puts the spotlight on the meme of Sunak's own wealth and privilege, and inability to relate to ordinary people.

    I really can't see it shifting polls now, and postal ballots go out in a week or so time, many being returned immediately.
    The second point is actually very pertinent, though the Conservatives don't really intend that the indentured servitude policy should apply to *their* offspring, of course. This different kids mixing excuse is garbage. It's really a wheeze to inflict misery on prole kids to please rich elderly voters, and provide extra helping hands for menial labouring chores in collapsing public services.

    They've already given the game away by telling us it's both compulsory and not backed by criminal sanction. In the unlikely event that they ever got the chance to do this to people, the punishments for non-compliance would doubtless come in the form of the withholding of certain grants and social security payments that might really hurt poor families, but which wealthier ones can easily do without or don't receive at all.
    The game they gave away was revealing the national service "policy" was little more than a slogan from a SpAd brainstorm, whose details they were filling in by making stuff up as they went on the wireless. Once more, Rishi had knocked his own party off-balance. It was designed for announcing, not implementing.
    Fair enough that the fine details would come as part of some 'review' but it really felt like it was being sold as some grand idea and that no major details were known even on basic aspects, as the answers seemed very off the cuff.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    edited June 2

    DougSeal said:

    ...

    Morning all, more hotel bed nonsense from me. What a decidedly dull super polling Saturday with just the opinion of Opinium. Starting to edge towards best case for blues being lose by 13 to 15 and just beat 97s seat tally, but im still not fully convinced we havent reached the breaking point of online panels. Last chance saloons in this no horse town are manifestos and then the phone polls from 3 weeks out coming on stream diverging from onlines.
    That narrow path is very narrow innit? Narrow and not worth the trek.
    Here are my latest 'Labour losers' musings
    Were you up for Shabhana?
    Were you up for Wes?
    Were you up for Jess?
    At least one of those shall manifest in glorious technicolour.

    The Portillo shocks of the night could well be Streeting and Phillips.

    The Tories have been wise to shoehorn 3 million ex patriot voters into marginal seats. That is big number and will save dozens and dozens of seats.
    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    A good Head uses Inset days through the school year to sort out slips in staff standards, to ensure staff are up to speed on regulations, to cover important protocols such as discipline or medical emergencies (which DO happen) etc. Because you’ve got the whole staff there and they are focused, if you do them right they’re a really good way of raising standards.

    Inset after-school and evenings are also sometimes used.

    There’s a debate to be had about wellbeing and whether a goal of ‘economic productivity’ is really the only viable way of human existence but I’ll spare y’all that right now ;)


    Most state schools, pretty much all academies in academy chains, now have weekly 'directed time' where staff have to stay behind one or two evenings a week until 5 to sit in meetings and listen to presentations.

    It is the biggest waste of time in the history of universe.

    Still, could be worse, could be more inset days. I worked in one private school that had twelve inset days and one member of staff was threatened with violence for saying she couldn't turn up (part time and worked in a different school on that day). All we actually did on that particular day was tidy classrooms anyway, so I don't know why he got so worked up.

    About the only good thing about them was that it meant the - ahem - younger age groups were not near that Principal for more days of the year.
    My father was Deputy Head of John Masefield when Baker introduced the inset day. They were known in the school as B. days (bidets). The story went that you knew they were there, but didn't know how to use them.
    I don’t think ex-pats (whether ex-patriate or ex-patriot) will break Tory in the way they think or hope. The not insignificant number in Spain, for example, have not seen the Tories signature policy from the last election develop to their advantage.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entry/more-expats-to-vote-2024-but-will-it-change-much_uk_65b7af35e4b077c17ab5e886/
    They're migrants. Not ex-pats.

    They're not abroad on a 3 month work assignment. They've gone there to live.

    Of course, because the word migrant is used in such a disparaging way when referring to people coming to the UK, it cannot possibly be used to describe the gallant British pensioners on the Costas, reading the Daily Mail and complaining about foreigners.
    Equally from the left - all migrants are noble heroic types. Apart from British “expats” who are all Gammon Fascist Criminals.
    One day people on both left and right will discover the fact of the matter: that migrants are just people, who happen for whatever reason to be living in a different country from the one they grew up in.

    Why do people migrate? For employment and opportunity, to be with loved ones, for better weather, to make their money go further, to escape persecution or violence, for adventure… hundreds of different reasons.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    ydoethur said:

    Stereodog said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stereodog said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Stereodog, some private schools are hugely expensive. Others could be afforded by many people but at the cost of forgoing holidays and other thing. The former will not be sunk or hit too hard by a VAT rise. The latter will be.


    Maybe headline fees but even the cheaper ones would also include loads of extra costs such as uniform, food, extra activities etc. Plus unless you only have one child you’re also essentially committing to sending all of them to a public school.

    In any case my point really was that for the vast majority of the population who presumably find it too expensive to contemplate or have moral objections then it won’t matter if fees are suddenly 20% more.
    State schools also charge for uniforms, food and extra activities. In fact, most private schools of my acquaintance have already rolled food costs into the headline figure so arguably that's more honest.

    You can get Free School Meals on some state school funding pathways. But it isn't straightforward and the food is often rubbish anyway.
    True but the education bit is free. I’m not trying to argue that public schools are bad value or anything. I’m just questioning what relevance a hike in school fees would be to the 99.4% of families who don’t send their children to public schools. Moonrabbit seems to think that a huge number of these families are desperate to send their children to a public school and would be on the verge of doing so were it not for the VAT policy.
    But it's not 99.4% (unless you mean 'public schools' rather than 'private schools')

    Only around 7% of children are in private education at any time. But around 20% will have attended a private school at some point in their school career. That's also skewed by area, of course. I think there's only three private schools in the whole of Northumberland, but a third of children in London will have been privately educated at one time or another. Corbyn himself, for example, was privately educated until the age of 11 and then he went to a school that was de facto a private school even though the tuition fees were paid by the state.

    I'm not convinced this policy will have as big an impact as Moonrabbit thinks, but I do think it's likely to have a wider and more damaging impact than Labour realises.
    Its a bit like the hints at renewed assaults on hunting and shooting. It pisses off a lot of people in rural seats where they had been making good progress. A thousand or so per rural constituency might make the difference
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    ToryJim said:

    Heathener said:

    Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.

    Most people just use them a way to ext

    Tomorrow my daughter's school has an inset day. There are 5 of these in the year: FIVE. That is a whole work week in the year that is not a bank holiday and there is no other child care provisioning on offer. We have no family near by to help. It drives me insane. Think what this means in terms of national productivity. This is the difference between recession or not. The lack of resources and coordination with the labour market is a massive problem for my family on a regular basis. I think it is a metaphor for the inefficiency of the whole british system.

    One of the primary schools in my village puts all the inset days into one week - which happens to be next week - so that parents can get a week's holiday during what is technically 'term-time'.

    My son's school doesn't, and we also have an inset day tomorrow. I think many schools are, as Legoland's entry prices are higher than on the Sunday - £49 for tomorrow, compared to £44 today and £37 on Tuesday. Next Monday is £34. Unless some schools are having half term this week?

    (What is the point of 'inset days'?)
    Teacher training and (for the ones in September) planning for the upcoming year
    Why can this not be done outside termtime, when the kids are on holiday? ;)
    Because It Has Always Been Done That Way.

    Like many other ancient traditions, probably actually dates to a mistake by Whitehall in 1957.
    This isn’t aimed at you, you just happen to have pitched in on something I’ve been discussing a lot with friends recently.

    It’s the trend to lash out at others, sometimes (often) through ignorance. It has been on the increase of late and, yes, I really do in part blame this Gov’t for it. They seem incapable of making any announcement, even a good one, without first taking a swipe at some group or sector. So a sensible policy about apprenticeships is couched in language about ‘Mickey Mouse’ degrees. A policy on Natty service is about ‘getting kids off their smartphones.’

    They just can’t help themselves from being Nasty.
    Well those partisan blinkers you have ought to be taken off.

    Things aren’t nasty, with or without the telling capitalisation, just because you don’t like them. Political parties frame their arguments in ways that they think will help them. Not everyone will be responsive to the framing, that’s fine.

    The government is clearly in political trouble and they are responsible for the mess they created, but that isn’t license to load them up with responsibility they should not bear. This government didn’t invent lashing out as you put it, it is part and parcel of politics. It shouldn’t be but it is human nature and all sides indulge in it. In fact the process of trying to intimate that one side is solely virtuous whilst all vice pertains to the other is very much of a piece with this.

    One of Labour’s signature policies this election is one that is entirely motivated by envy and spite, and lashing out at those deemed socially undeserving. The behaviour is not restricted to one side of this. The Conservative Party is spent so their vices are more plainly visible, their virtues are largely overshadowed. Labour has virtues and vices too and in equal measure, but their vices are currently discounted because of the stage of the electoral cycle. In not so many years the tables will turn and the preponderance of vice will accrue to Labour.
    I refer the honourable gentleman to his previous statement.

    Incidentally, how does one learn this ability of divining the intent behind a particular party's policies? I must have missed that lesson at school.

  • TazTaz Posts: 14,362
    Heathener said:

    pigeon said:

    Chris said:

    Apparently VAT on private schools is going to “dramatically shift the polls”

    Hopium at its finest.

    Why should it shift the polls, as it's already known to be Labour policy, and has already been a focus of attention in the campaign?
    The next thing to look at in terms of "shifting the polls" (if that's going to happen at all) is what happens in the leader debates and what, if any, attention the electorate pays to them. If Sunak has a couple of bad performances then the Tories could conceivably go the way of the Liberal Democrats in 2015. Though I suppose at least that would save him the trouble of having to resign his seat before emigrating to California.
    Totally agree although I’d amend your word ‘next’ to ‘only’

    The debates are a concern for me because Sunak probably has nothing to lose, although you never know with this lot.
    Summer is beginning, the weather is going to be good. How many people will bother ? A couple of million maybe and most of those will have made their minds up.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,643
    edited June 2
    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Stereodog, some private schools are hugely expensive. Others could be afforded by many people but at the cost of forgoing holidays and other thing. The former will not be sunk or hit too hard by a VAT rise. The latter will be.

    Do many families spend £17 500 on holidays each year? That is the average independent school fees before VAT.

    Yes that’s roughly what we pay, for one child at a bog standard day school in SE London (with illustrious alumni including James Cleverly).

    That’s some holiday. Now imagine if you had 2 children of secondary school age.

    But again, the Tory campaign against this isn’t aimed at parents of schoolchildren, who already know this. It’s aimed at pensioners who remember private school being something hard working middle class families could afford by foregoing a foreign holiday, back in the 70s or 80s.
    The proportion of children in private schools in the 70s and 80s was roughly the same as today (perhaps a bit lower). Since then, the UK has become even more unequal, particularly with the top income decile's income growing far faster than the rest of the populations.

    Since 2010, spending per per pupil in private schools has grown from 50% higher than state schools to 100% higher.

    I don't want to be personally rude but PB's demographics really start to show on topics like this.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Hunt saying he has had a couple of polls done in Godalming and Ash, behind in one, ahead in another.
    Interesting
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643
    Would be interesting to see if this VAT reform unlocks greater change in private schools. For example, perhaps they need to split into commercial organisations aiming to give the rich a head start and genuinely charitable institutions providing an alternative free education, those primarily focused on the needs of local communities (say with over 50% free places) or those serving children with special needs.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Eabhal said:

    Chris said:

    Apparently VAT on private schools is going to “dramatically shift the polls”

    Hopium at its finest.

    Why should it shift the polls, as it's already known to be Labour policy, and has already been a focus of attention in the campaign?
    Unless the Conservatives make it their primary campaign issue over the next 4 weeks, talk about it in the debates, FB ads and so on.

    It wouldn't even be the craziest thing they've done so far.
    It may fit in with the strategy of trying to get a few percent of votes back from Reform, but given the small percentage of privately educated children and their demographics, I can't see it doing much to a Labour lead of 20% or so.
    Even with a question framed in a negative way about private schools being forced to close there is quite a division of opinion. 14% of Tory voters think it a good thing if they do.


    That's not a 'negative' wat of framing it. It's a truthful way of framing it.
    I'm not convinced that 'not charging VAT' is the same as a 'tax break.'

    I mean, is it a 'tax break' to not pay income tax below £12570? Or to pay standard rate on up to £50k?

    A tax being charged and then specifically remitted would be different.
    Indeed, it's just the framing Labour would prefer to use for their policy.

    Far too many fall into their trap.
    There’s worse. After all we’ve seen a quarter of the electorate say they’re still voting Tories. They’ve not just fallen into a trap, they’re clearly still in it, and suffering from Stockholm Syndrome.
    You'd like a one-party state?

    I get you don't like the Tories much, or the centre-right, but be careful what you wish for - you might not like what comes next.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,214
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Stereodog, some private schools are hugely expensive. Others could be afforded by many people but at the cost of forgoing holidays and other thing. The former will not be sunk or hit too hard by a VAT rise. The latter will be.

    Do many families spend £17 500 on holidays each year? That is the average independent school fees before VAT.

    That average is skewed because it includes the 'hugely expensive private schools' Mr Dancer referenced.

    Here's a local example. Just over £9,000 a year for the top end.

    https://www.castlehouseschool.co.uk/school-fees

    Here's another one. About the same.

    https://stdominicsgrammarschool.co.uk/information/fees/

    I can imagine that somebody might spend £6000 on a foreign holiday. Or on leasing a new car. Cut those out by staying in Cornwall or buying a second hand vehicle and the maths isn't far out.
    With one child perhaps. Two at the same time and it's unambiguously far out.

    Which returns is to the observation that private schools are no longer a thing the middle class can do by scrimping and saving. They used to be, but they aren't now.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Jonathan said:

    Would be interesting to see if this VAT reform unlocks greater change in private schools. For example, perhaps they need to split into commercial organisations aiming to give the rich a head start and genuinely charitable institutions providing an alternative free education, those primarily focused on the needs of local communities (say with over 50% free places) or those serving children with special needs.

    They could offer assisted places to poorer families. Or they could if Tony hadnt nixed it.
  • Eabhal said:

    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Stereodog, some private schools are hugely expensive. Others could be afforded by many people but at the cost of forgoing holidays and other thing. The former will not be sunk or hit too hard by a VAT rise. The latter will be.

    Do many families spend £17 500 on holidays each year? That is the average independent school fees before VAT.

    Yes that’s roughly what we pay, for one child at a bog standard day school in SE London (with illustrious alumni including James Cleverly).

    That’s some holiday. Now imagine if you had 2 children of secondary school age.

    But again, the Tory campaign against this isn’t aimed at parents of schoolchildren, who already know this. It’s aimed at pensioners who remember private school being something hard working middle class families could afford by foregoing a foreign holiday, back in the 70s or 80s.
    The proportion of children in private schools in the 70s and 80s was roughly the same as today (perhaps a bit lower). Since then, the UK has become more unequal, particularly with the top income decile's income growing far faster than the rest of the populations.

    Since 2010, spending per per pupil in private schools has grown from 50% higher than state schools to 100% higher.

    I don't want to be personally rude but PB's demographics really start to show on topics like this.
    Private school fees have gone up by something like 20% since the early 2010s.

    When I went, it was at the end of when “normal” people could still afford it. By the time I left normal people were being replaced by rich Russians.

    This wasn’t Eton or Harrow either.

    So yes I do think it’s a myth that normal people are being priced out. They were priced out a decade ago.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    Eabhal said:

    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Stereodog, some private schools are hugely expensive. Others could be afforded by many people but at the cost of forgoing holidays and other thing. The former will not be sunk or hit too hard by a VAT rise. The latter will be.

    Do many families spend £17 500 on holidays each year? That is the average independent school fees before VAT.

    Yes that’s roughly what we pay, for one child at a bog standard day school in SE London (with illustrious alumni including James Cleverly).

    That’s some holiday. Now imagine if you had 2 children of secondary school age.

    But again, the Tory campaign against this isn’t aimed at parents of schoolchildren, who already know this. It’s aimed at pensioners who remember private school being something hard working middle class families could afford by foregoing a foreign holiday, back in the 70s or 80s.
    The proportion of children in private schools in the 70s and 80s was roughly the same as today (perhaps a bit lower). Since then, the UK has become more unequal, particularly with the top income decile's income growing far faster than the rest of the populations.

    Since 2010, spending per per pupil in private schools has grown from 50% higher than state schools to 100% higher.

    I don't want to be personally rude but PB's demographics really start to show on topics like this.
    And if those figures are pointed out to Sunak in the debates how does he respond ? I just don’t see a lot of mileage for the Tories in this VAT on schools .
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044
    Jonathan said:

    Would be interesting to see if this VAT reform unlocks greater change in private schools. For example, perhaps they need to split into commercial organisations aiming to give the rich a head start and genuinely charitable institutions providing an alternative free education, those primarily focused on the needs of local communities (say with over 50% free places) or those serving children with special needs.

    Labour say VAT won’t apply to those serving children with special needs, so there will be some sort of categorisation.
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