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Tonight’s polls – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,801
edited June 8 in General
Tonight’s polls – politicalbetting.com

? Labour lead at 20ptsWestminster voting intentionLAB: 45% (+4)CON: 25% (-2)REF: 11% (+1)LDEM: 8% (-2)GRN: 6% (-1)via @OpiniumResearchhttps://t.co/RTQh3sU2dY

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Comments

  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,121
    Techne was out yesterday. Its old news.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 13,112

    Techne was out yesterday. Its old news.

    Indeed, Techne fieldwork was 29th and 30th, We Think (Labour lead 25 points) was 30th and 31st. Opinium is stating fieldwork 29th to the 31st.

    That makes We Think the most recent poll (Labour lead of 25 points - I might have mentioned that).
  • Options
    johntjohnt Posts: 110
    Tories down two, reform up one, gap now 14 points, down 3 points in a week. 5 weeks to go….. surely we couldn’t see crossover!
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,073
    Keir Starmer: “Read my lips - I will bring immigration numbers down. If you trust me with the keys to No 10 I will make you this promise: I will control our borders and make sure British businesses are helped to hire Brits first.”

    https://x.com/mrharrycole/status/1796976637348610157
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,121
    edited June 1
    One bright spot for tories is the LD lamentable %, they might hold the blue wall against the Norman Wisdom cosplayer
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,464

    Techne was out yesterday. Its old news.

    Sorry, still fighting the lurgy.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,121

    Techne was out yesterday. Its old news.

    Sorry, still fighting the lurgy.
    I forgive you
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,397

    Keir Starmer: “Read my lips - I will bring immigration numbers down. If you trust me with the keys to No 10 I will make you this promise: I will control our borders and make sure British businesses are helped to hire Brits first.”

    https://x.com/mrharrycole/status/1796976637348610157

    I instinctively distrust a politician who makes categorical promises in such a way.

    If he was able to explain why it was so important to do this, what benefits would accrue from doing so, or harm avoided, then it would be easier to believe he was committed to it, and easier to understand why he was willing to make it so important.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,045
    Tories at least over 20% now with Opinium and Techne. The last Techne had the Tories on just 19%
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,408
    Opinium is an atrocious poll for the Tories . That suggests even with their swing back model they’re losing even more support.

    The Tories are likely to go in full panic mode now and I expect that we’ll see their manifesto with a series of desperate bribes .

    I’d bet on them abolishing IHT as their final Hail Mary as the centre piece .



  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,687

    Keir Starmer: “Read my lips - I will bring immigration numbers down. If you trust me with the keys to No 10 I will make you this promise: I will control our borders and make sure British businesses are helped to hire Brits first.”

    https://x.com/mrharrycole/status/1796976637348610157

    Leon vote in the bag
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,073

    Keir Starmer: “Read my lips - I will bring immigration numbers down. If you trust me with the keys to No 10 I will make you this promise: I will control our borders and make sure British businesses are helped to hire Brits first.”

    https://x.com/mrharrycole/status/1796976637348610157

    I instinctively distrust a politician who makes categorical promises in such a way.

    If he was able to explain why it was so important to do this, what benefits would accrue from doing so, or harm avoided, then it would be easier to believe he was committed to it, and easier to understand why he was willing to make it so important.
    I suspect the real reason he feels confident in making that promise is that it would be very hard for immigration to be any higher than it has been under the Tories.
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,908
    nico679 said:

    Opinium is an atrocious poll for the Tories . That suggests even with their swing back model they’re losing even more support.

    The Tories are likely to go in full panic mode now and I expect that we’ll see their manifesto with a series of desperate bribes .

    I’d bet on them abolishing IHT as their final Hail Mary as the centre piece .



    Leaving the ECHR has to appear, either as a referendum commitment or just straight up policy
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 4,628

    Techne was out yesterday. Its old news.

    Sorry, still fighting the lurgy.
    If the criticism gets too much just click your ruby loafers together and say “there’s no place like Con-home, no place like con-home”.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,397

    Keir Starmer: “Read my lips - I will bring immigration numbers down. If you trust me with the keys to No 10 I will make you this promise: I will control our borders and make sure British businesses are helped to hire Brits first.”

    https://x.com/mrharrycole/status/1796976637348610157

    I instinctively distrust a politician who makes categorical promises in such a way.

    If he was able to explain why it was so important to do this, what benefits would accrue from doing so, or harm avoided, then it would be easier to believe he was committed to it, and easier to understand why he was willing to make it so important.
    I suspect the real reason he feels confident in making that promise is that it would be very hard for immigration to be any higher than it has been under the Tories.
    Well there's that, yes. But we all thought it would be really easy for Sunak to meet his inflation pledge, and I think he was late on it in the end.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,189
    HYUFD said:

    Tories at least over 20% now with Opinium and Techne. The last Techne had the Tories on just 19%

    Well done
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    stodgestodge Posts: 13,112

    One bright spot for tories is the LD lamentable %, they might hold the blue wall against the Norman Wisdom cosplayer

    Perhaps - still a 9% swing and the Blue Wall isn't just the Con-LD marginals - plenty of Con-Lab marginals in the south and on the Opinium numbers Labour will win most of those.
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    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,423
    edited June 1
    CatMan said:

    nico679 said:

    Opinium is an atrocious poll for the Tories . That suggests even with their swing back model they’re losing even more support.

    The Tories are likely to go in full panic mode now and I expect that we’ll see their manifesto with a series of desperate bribes .

    I’d bet on them abolishing IHT as their final Hail Mary as the centre piece .



    Leaving the ECHR has to appear, either as a referendum commitment or just straight up policy
    Too easily attacked as a "second brexit", which would be unpopular even among many leave voters. Plenty of people want a period of stability.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,408

    Keir Starmer: “Read my lips - I will bring immigration numbers down. If you trust me with the keys to No 10 I will make you this promise: I will control our borders and make sure British businesses are helped to hire Brits first.”

    https://x.com/mrharrycole/status/1796976637348610157

    I instinctively distrust a politician who makes categorical promises in such a way.

    If he was able to explain why it was so important to do this, what benefits would accrue from doing so, or harm avoided, then it would be easier to believe he was committed to it, and easier to understand why he was willing to make it so important.
    I suspect the real reason he feels confident in making that promise is that it would be very hard for immigration to be any higher than it has been under the Tories.
    There’s also likely to be a big fall in November when the next ONS update comes out . Of course this is due to changes made under Sunak .
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    johntjohnt Posts: 110


    I’d bet on them abolishing IHT as their final Hail Mary as the centre piece .



    They might need to promise to abolish death if they want to recover from the current polling.

  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,189
    johnt said:



    I’d bet on them abolishing IHT as their final Hail Mary as the centre piece .



    They might need to promise to abolish death if they want to recover from the current polling.

    Of course they've had 14 years to abolish death
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,010
    edited June 1
    Foxy said:

    📊 Labour lead at 24pts
    Westminster voting intention

    LAB: 45% (-)
    CON: 21% (+2)
    REF: 12% (-2)
    LDEM: 11% (-1)
    GRN: 6% (+1)

    via @techneUK, 31 May

    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1796963590408151336?t=gvZdhFO2yx8sB3yzJpMapg&s=19

    First one of the evening.

    Broken, sleazy Reform and LibDems on the slide!
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,010
    Scott_xP said:

    @OpiniumResearch
    🚨 Our latest polling with
    @ObserverUK


    The Labour lead is now 20 points.
    • Labour 45% (+4)
    • Conservatives 25% (-2)
    • Lib Dems 8% (-2)
    • SNP 3% (+1)
    • Greens 6% (-1)
    • Reform 11% (+1)

    Fieldwork: 29 - 31 May.
    Changes from 23 - 24 May.

    Broken, sleazy Tories, LibDems and Greens on the slide!
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,408
    CatMan said:

    nico679 said:

    Opinium is an atrocious poll for the Tories . That suggests even with their swing back model they’re losing even more support.

    The Tories are likely to go in full panic mode now and I expect that we’ll see their manifesto with a series of desperate bribes .

    I’d bet on them abolishing IHT as their final Hail Mary as the centre piece .



    Leaving the ECHR has to appear, either as a referendum commitment or just straight up policy
    That would be a complete admission of failure on the boats . And would cause a lot of problems for the party. It will also mean that Sunak is breaching the GFA and threatening security co-operation with the EU .

  • Options
    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    HYUFD said:

    Tories at least over 20% now with Opinium and Techne. The last Techne had the Tories on just 19%

    DReam have nixed the idea of Labour using Things Will Only Get Better as the campaign theme tune. But Rishi could always ask.
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,908
    nico679 said:

    CatMan said:

    nico679 said:

    Opinium is an atrocious poll for the Tories . That suggests even with their swing back model they’re losing even more support.

    The Tories are likely to go in full panic mode now and I expect that we’ll see their manifesto with a series of desperate bribes .

    I’d bet on them abolishing IHT as their final Hail Mary as the centre piece .



    Leaving the ECHR has to appear, either as a referendum commitment or just straight up policy
    That would be a complete admission of failure on the boats . And would cause a lot of problems for the party. It will also mean that Sunak is breaching the GFA and threatening security co-operation with the EU .

    Sure, but if it gets him a few % of votes he won't care

    (I should point out I don't actually support it, I just mean from a Tory point of view)
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,010

    Techne was out yesterday. Its old news.

    Sorry, still fighting the lurgy.
    I forgive you
    "I forgive you! I only hope my neurologist will feel the same."
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,060
    Oh boy.
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    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    carnforth said:

    CatMan said:

    nico679 said:

    Opinium is an atrocious poll for the Tories . That suggests even with their swing back model they’re losing even more support.

    The Tories are likely to go in full panic mode now and I expect that we’ll see their manifesto with a series of desperate bribes .

    I’d bet on them abolishing IHT as their final Hail Mary as the centre piece .



    Leaving the ECHR has to appear, either as a referendum commitment or just straight up policy
    Too easily attacked as a "second brexit", which would be unpopular even among many leave voters. Plenty of people want a period of stability.
    Not really. Brexit hit everyone, whereas you have to be pretty poor and marginalised to think you are going to need the help of the echr
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,884
    The early campaign period has been a loss for the Tories. They are not moving the dial.

    Feels to me we are now waiting for the debates and the manifestos. Their only hope is that it shifts the dial/Labour come under more scrutiny as it becomes clear they’ll win handsomely.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,408
    CatMan said:

    nico679 said:

    CatMan said:

    nico679 said:

    Opinium is an atrocious poll for the Tories . That suggests even with their swing back model they’re losing even more support.

    The Tories are likely to go in full panic mode now and I expect that we’ll see their manifesto with a series of desperate bribes .

    I’d bet on them abolishing IHT as their final Hail Mary as the centre piece .



    Leaving the ECHR has to appear, either as a referendum commitment or just straight up policy
    That would be a complete admission of failure on the boats . And would cause a lot of problems for the party. It will also mean that Sunak is breaching the GFA and threatening security co-operation with the EU .

    Sure, but if it gets him a few % of votes he won't care

    (I should point out I don't actually support it, I just mean from a Tory point of view)
    A referendum commitment will make many shudder and a policy of leaving will allow other parties to say the UK will be in the company of Russia and Belarus ! So far the media have made little over the last year of the impact of leaving but in an election campaign that will be different .
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    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586

    Oh boy.

    When you're with me
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    boulayboulay Posts: 4,628
    megasaur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tories at least over 20% now with Opinium and Techne. The last Techne had the Tories on just 19%

    DReam have nixed the idea of Labour using Things Will Only Get Better as the campaign theme tune. But Rishi could always ask.
    He’s already agreed rights to Phil Collins “against all odds”.
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    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,159

    Keir Starmer: “Read my lips - I will bring immigration numbers down. If you trust me with the keys to No 10 I will make you this promise: I will control our borders and make sure British businesses are helped to hire Brits first.”

    https://x.com/mrharrycole/status/1796976637348610157

    "Read my lips"? What are the odds on SKS puking in the Japanese PM's lap during the campaign?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_KVL-wtpgg
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    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,908

    Oh boy.

    Who have you leaped in to this time?!
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,073
    AlsoLei said:

    Keir Starmer: “Read my lips - I will bring immigration numbers down. If you trust me with the keys to No 10 I will make you this promise: I will control our borders and make sure British businesses are helped to hire Brits first.”

    https://x.com/mrharrycole/status/1796976637348610157

    "Read my lips"? What are the odds on SKS puking in the Japanese PM's lap during the campaign?
    And should we bet on Starmer's son becoming PM?
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,425
    All the polls are wrong. There are too many assumptions. It doesn't mean the Tories will not get dicked.... But the margin of defeat is unlikely to be as suggested....imho....
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 4,628

    Oh boy.

    It’s ok CR, it’s the Tories’ Rorke’s Drift. It looks impossible but if we hold firm we can defeat the lefty hordes. You, me and Colour Sergeant Moon Rabbit.
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    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,272

    Keir Starmer: “Read my lips - I will bring immigration numbers down. If you trust me with the keys to No 10 I will make you this promise: I will control our borders and make sure British businesses are helped to hire Brits first.”

    https://x.com/mrharrycole/status/1796976637348610157

    Leon vote in the bag
    Why? He only occasionally works in Britain.
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    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,669

    All the polls are wrong. There are too many assumptions. It doesn't mean the Tories will not get dicked.... But the margin of defeat is unlikely to be as suggested....imho....

    "You didn't see graphite"
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,837
    CatMan said:

    nico679 said:

    Opinium is an atrocious poll for the Tories . That suggests even with their swing back model they’re losing even more support.

    The Tories are likely to go in full panic mode now and I expect that we’ll see their manifesto with a series of desperate bribes .

    I’d bet on them abolishing IHT as their final Hail Mary as the centre piece .



    Leaving the ECHR has to appear, either as a referendum commitment or just straight up policy
    Three issues with that. It (1) brings up shades Brexit, something the Tories are absolutely silent about this time, despite it being the one uncontested “achievement” they can point to in the last Parliament, (2) it breaches the GFA, bad in itself, would also cause more than a minor spat with our American cousins, (3) this would be a core vote strategy, which they’re all in on already, and which doesn’t seem to be working out for them a week and a half in.
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,159

    All the polls are wrong. There are too many assumptions. It doesn't mean the Tories will not get dicked.... But the margin of defeat is unlikely to be as suggested....imho....

    Are you arguing for some sort of systemic error across all pollsters, across all methodologies?

    Or is it that you think something will happen during the remainder of the campaign to change peoples' minds?
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,878
    AlsoLei said:

    All the polls are wrong. There are too many assumptions. It doesn't mean the Tories will not get dicked.... But the margin of defeat is unlikely to be as suggested....imho....

    Are you arguing for some sort of systemic error across all pollsters, across all methodologies?

    Or is it that you think something will happen during the remainder of the campaign to change peoples' minds?
    Or is it hopium?
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,853

    All the polls are wrong. There are too many assumptions. It doesn't mean the Tories will not get dicked.... But the margin of defeat is unlikely to be as suggested....imho....

    A punter who doesn't believe the polls is a bit like a sailor who doesn't believe weather forecasts.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,887
    boulay said:

    megasaur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tories at least over 20% now with Opinium and Techne. The last Techne had the Tories on just 19%

    DReam have nixed the idea of Labour using Things Will Only Get Better as the campaign theme tune. But Rishi could always ask.
    He’s already agreed rights to Phil Collins “against all odds”.
    I thought he was using Pink Floyd's "Set the Controls for the Heart of the Sun"
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,060
    boulay said:

    Oh boy.

    It’s ok CR, it’s the Tories’ Rorke’s Drift. It looks impossible but if we hold firm we can defeat the lefty hordes. You, me and Colour Sergeant Moon Rabbit.
    Don't forget Private Marquee Mark Hook
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,887

    All the polls are wrong. There are too many assumptions. It doesn't mean the Tories will not get dicked.... But the margin of defeat is unlikely to be as suggested....imho....

    A punter who doesn't believe the polls is a bit like a sailor who doesn't believe weather forecasts.
    A punter who doesn't believe the polls is likely to be a big winner or a big loser. More likely the latter.
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,837
    megasaur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tories at least over 20% now with Opinium and Techne. The last Techne had the Tories on just 19%

    DReam have nixed the idea of Labour using Things Will Only Get Better as the campaign theme tune. But Rishi could always ask.
    A good thing from Labour’s perspective. Like “3 Lions” it’s a Nineties anthem that should have been left there.
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    boulayboulay Posts: 4,628

    boulay said:

    Oh boy.

    It’s ok CR, it’s the Tories’ Rorke’s Drift. It looks impossible but if we hold firm we can defeat the lefty hordes. You, me and Colour Sergeant Moon Rabbit.
    Don't forget Private Marquee Mark Hook
    To be fair, Marquee Mark Hook might be wheeling out this line about the Tories “ Stuff me with green apples! If a dog was as sick as him, they'd shoot it!”
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,397

    All the polls are wrong. There are too many assumptions. It doesn't mean the Tories will not get dicked.... But the margin of defeat is unlikely to be as suggested....imho....

    The winning margin in 1983 was 14.8pp which is the largest since 1931.

    Higher or lower than that do you reckon?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,060
    boulay said:

    Oh boy.

    It’s ok CR, it’s the Tories’ Rorke’s Drift. It looks impossible but if we hold firm we can defeat the lefty hordes. You, me and Colour Sergeant Moon Rabbit.
    Trouble is Sunak would encourage the Zulus to charge early, and then the two ranks would turn at and fire at each other:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-mySvuC9MMc&pp=ygUOenVsdSBsaW5lIGZpcmU=
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,878

    AlsoLei said:

    All the polls are wrong. There are too many assumptions. It doesn't mean the Tories will not get dicked.... But the margin of defeat is unlikely to be as suggested....imho....

    Are you arguing for some sort of systemic error across all pollsters, across all methodologies?

    Or is it that you think something will happen during the remainder of the campaign to change peoples' minds?
    The polls are not wrong.

    Conservatism exists not to stop progress, nor keep everything the same, but in acknowledgement natures way is everything forever changes, and we need to conserve what is of value and importance. You build a wall to keep the wild things out. Within the wall you build a path to get you from A to B safely in the dark or inclement weather. Where your way leads across the stream, you build a bridge. If you now do nothing to conserve the path and the wall and the bridge, nature will take them from you. It will change your world and take everything you value from you. Those things you want your children to learn in the right way, whilst on your knee? they will learn it first elsewhere, in the wrong way. The world needs Conservative thinking and Conservative action.

    We have a Conservative Party in the UK that used to be very good at this, and often rewarded with power, but it has lost its way. Distracted by other things, it’s stopped focussing on its main reason to be - to conserve what is of value and what is important. The party has become an echo chamber for right wing capitalist think tanks and NeoCon groups, its leaders forgetting when they get excited by idea’s, they will ultimately have to defend them on the floor of parliament and at the ballot box.

    Echo Chamber Government is not the way to lead a party or govern a country.
    That was a party political broadcast brought to you by ChatGPT
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356
    ...
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,060

    Keir Starmer: “Read my lips - I will bring immigration numbers down. If you trust me with the keys to No 10 I will make you this promise: I will control our borders and make sure British businesses are helped to hire Brits first.”

    https://x.com/mrharrycole/status/1796976637348610157

    He's completely full of shit.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,615
    edited June 1
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    Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,830
    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    megasaur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tories at least over 20% now with Opinium and Techne. The last Techne had the Tories on just 19%

    DReam have nixed the idea of Labour using Things Will Only Get Better as the campaign theme tune. But Rishi could always ask.
    He’s already agreed rights to Phil Collins “against all odds”.
    I thought he was using Pink Floyd's "Set the Controls for the Heart of the Sun"
    I was looking for a job, and then I found a job
    And heaven knows I'm miserable now
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    boulayboulay Posts: 4,628

    boulay said:

    Oh boy.

    It’s ok CR, it’s the Tories’ Rorke’s Drift. It looks impossible but if we hold firm we can defeat the lefty hordes. You, me and Colour Sergeant Moon Rabbit.
    Trouble is Sunak would encourage the Zulus to charge early, and then the two ranks would turn at and fire at each other:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-mySvuC9MMc&pp=ygUOenVsdSBsaW5lIGZpcmU=
    Maybe the effects of Andy Street losing will do for him as in Zulu Dawn “comes all this way just to be killed by a bullet from Birmingham”.
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    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,418

    All the polls are wrong. There are too many assumptions. It doesn't mean the Tories will not get dicked.... But the margin of defeat is unlikely to be as suggested....imho....

    The winning margin in 1983 was 14.8pp which is the largest since 1931.

    Higher or lower than that do you reckon?
    I'm calling LAB 39 CON 30. LAB around 375 seats CON 175.
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    James_MJames_M Posts: 63
    I actually think the comment below about the Conservatives owning some of the disappointments isn't a bad idea. It's clear at the moment the voters aren't listening and there is little to grab the media's attention. By saying that 'we've been in power for 14 years, a period with lots of change - recovery from the financial crash, Covid, war in Europe. We have tried and made mistakes in policy and behaviour. As PM I have worked to set a course and we are seeing some progress but not enough etc' - it isn't a message to rally masses, but it might get enough people thinking, 'I like the humility, governing is hard' and switch the dial a bit.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,397
    edited June 1
    Scott_xP said:

    Daily Mail: Tories' SOS to Rishi: Give us tax cuts now

    Narrator: In fiscal year 2023/4 the UK budget deficit was £121bn, 4.4% of GDP, and the 18th largest budget deficit since 1948 (i.e. in the last 76 years, so just in the top quarter).
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    JamarionJamarion Posts: 49
    edited June 1

    AlsoLei said:

    All the polls are wrong. There are too many assumptions. It doesn't mean the Tories will not get dicked.... But the margin of defeat is unlikely to be as suggested....imho....

    Are you arguing for some sort of systemic error across all pollsters, across all methodologies?

    Or is it that you think something will happen during the remainder of the campaign to change peoples' minds?
    The polls are not wrong.
    Richard Tice reckons Reform will stand in 630 constituencies.
    Nominations must be in by next Friday.
    Let's see how many they put in.

    PS Why not 631, given there are 18 in NI plus Lindsay Hoyle's in Chorley?

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    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,669

    Keir Starmer: “Read my lips - I will bring immigration numbers down. If you trust me with the keys to No 10 I will make you this promise: I will control our borders and make sure British businesses are helped to hire Brits first.”

    https://x.com/mrharrycole/status/1796976637348610157

    He's completely full of shit.
    It's the only way a Labour leader can talk about immigration - cracking on the demand for cheap labour.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,060
    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    Oh boy.

    It’s ok CR, it’s the Tories’ Rorke’s Drift. It looks impossible but if we hold firm we can defeat the lefty hordes. You, me and Colour Sergeant Moon Rabbit.
    Trouble is Sunak would encourage the Zulus to charge early, and then the two ranks would turn at and fire at each other:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-mySvuC9MMc&pp=ygUOenVsdSBsaW5lIGZpcmU=
    Maybe the effects of Andy Street losing will do for him as in Zulu Dawn “comes all this way just to be killed by a bullet from Birmingham”.
    "Gentlemen, it's time to save the colours."
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,221
    Techni

    Techne was out yesterday. Its old news.

    Sorry, still fighting the lurgy.
    Best wishes for a speedy recovery.
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,425
    AlsoLei said:

    All the polls are wrong. There are too many assumptions. It doesn't mean the Tories will not get dicked.... But the margin of defeat is unlikely to be as suggested....imho....

    Are you arguing for some sort of systemic error across all pollsters, across all methodologies?

    Or is it that you think something will happen during the remainder of the campaign to change peoples' minds?
    When pollsters fuck it up... they change their methodologies... simples.
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,159
    DougSeal said:

    megasaur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tories at least over 20% now with Opinium and Techne. The last Techne had the Tories on just 19%

    DReam have nixed the idea of Labour using Things Will Only Get Better as the campaign theme tune. But Rishi could always ask.
    A good thing from Labour’s perspective. Like “3 Lions” it’s a Nineties anthem that should have been left there.
    It seems that he's always been fairly bitter about Blair using it, claiming at least once that it "ruined his life" (hard to see how, given the royalties it must have brought in). But it came out in the early 90s, and already seemed fairly retro when it was picked up for the New Labour campaign.

    It's alright for Steve Bray to use it, I'm sure he doesn't bother paying PRS to play it in public anyway. But SKS should stay well clear, given that the Tories are already making snide remarks about his age.

    They should try to find something from this decade to use, at the very least.
  • Options
    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    edited June 1

    Keir Starmer: “Read my lips - I will bring immigration numbers down. If you trust me with the keys to No 10 I will make you this promise: I will control our borders and make sure British businesses are helped to hire Brits first.”

    https://x.com/mrharrycole/status/1796976637348610157

    He's completely full of shit.
    I think cracking down on the employers of illegal immigrants is a pretty obvious move and one which has been proposed by the great and good on here for years.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,203

    Keir Starmer: “Read my lips - I will bring immigration numbers down. If you trust me with the keys to No 10 I will make you this promise: I will control our borders and make sure British businesses are helped to hire Brits first.”

    https://x.com/mrharrycole/status/1796976637348610157

    He's completely full of shit.
    Unlike the Tories, with their promise to reduce immigration to the tens of thousands.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,221

    boulay said:

    Oh boy.

    It’s ok CR, it’s the Tories’ Rorke’s Drift. It looks impossible but if we hold firm we can defeat the lefty hordes. You, me and Colour Sergeant Moon Rabbit.
    Trouble is Sunak would encourage the Zulus to charge early, and then the two ranks would turn at and fire at each other:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-mySvuC9MMc&pp=ygUOenVsdSBsaW5lIGZpcmU=
    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    Oh boy.

    It’s ok CR, it’s the Tories’ Rorke’s Drift. It looks impossible but if we hold firm we can defeat the lefty hordes. You, me and Colour Sergeant Moon Rabbit.
    Trouble is Sunak would encourage the Zulus to charge early, and then the two ranks would turn at and fire at each other:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-mySvuC9MMc&pp=ygUOenVsdSBsaW5lIGZpcmU=
    Maybe the effects of Andy Street losing will do for him as in Zulu Dawn “comes all this way just to be killed by a bullet from Birmingham”.
    Interestingly, Birmingham City’s hooligan firm are called… The Zulus.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,397
    edited June 1
    James_M said:

    I actually think the comment below about the Conservatives owning some of the disappointments isn't a bad idea. It's clear at the moment the voters aren't listening and there is little to grab the media's attention. By saying that 'we've been in power for 14 years, a period with lots of change - recovery from the financial crash, Covid, war in Europe. We have tried and made mistakes in policy and behaviour. As PM I have worked to set a course and we are seeing some progress but not enough etc' - it isn't a message to rally masses, but it might get enough people thinking, 'I like the humility, governing is hard' and switch the dial a bit.

    Cameron should be able to tell them that the Tories won a majority in 2015, after five years of austerity, because they were upfront about the fact that some pain was necessary - we're all in it together was a blinder.

    The Tory messaging right now is complete cobblers in comparison. It starts off with how hard everything has been, Covid, Ukraine, but then it jumps straight into claims that the government have made everything hunky-dory with tax cuts. And it just isn't true. Things are not hunky-dory.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,990

    All the polls are wrong. There are too many assumptions. It doesn't mean the Tories will not get dicked.... But the margin of defeat is unlikely to be as suggested....imho....

    The winning margin in 1983 was 14.8pp which is the largest since 1931.

    Higher or lower than that do you reckon?
    I'm calling LAB 39 CON 30. LAB around 375 seats CON 175.
    That has the Tory losses and Labour gains roughly equal but Labour are likely to pick up 25-30 seats from the SNP and the Tories will also lose some seats to the Lib Dem’s.

    My guess would be that Labour gains will exceed Tory losses because of Scotland.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,060

    Keir Starmer: “Read my lips - I will bring immigration numbers down. If you trust me with the keys to No 10 I will make you this promise: I will control our borders and make sure British businesses are helped to hire Brits first.”

    https://x.com/mrharrycole/status/1796976637348610157

    He's completely full of shit.
    Unlike the Tories, with their promise to reduce immigration to the tens of thousands.
    People are just in a place where, right now, they're willing to believe the best about Labour and the absolute worst about the Conservatives - to the extent where anything the former says extenuates that belief and anything the latter says just angers people.

    I'm not sure there's much Rishi can do about it. But, he can't stay silent for 5 weeks.

    Maybe the best thing is to just point out the dangers of giving Labour a massive majority.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,837
    AlsoLei said:

    DougSeal said:

    megasaur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tories at least over 20% now with Opinium and Techne. The last Techne had the Tories on just 19%

    DReam have nixed the idea of Labour using Things Will Only Get Better as the campaign theme tune. But Rishi could always ask.
    A good thing from Labour’s perspective. Like “3 Lions” it’s a Nineties anthem that should have been left there.
    It seems that he's always been fairly bitter about Blair using it, claiming at least once that it "ruined his life" (hard to see how, given the royalties it must have brought in). But it came out in the early 90s, and already seemed fairly retro when it was picked up for the New Labour campaign.

    It's alright for Steve Bray to use it, I'm sure he doesn't bother paying PRS to play it in public anyway. But SKS should stay well clear, given that the Tories are already making snide remarks about his age.

    They should try to find something from this decade to use, at the very least.
    Yes. I think it originally came out when I was a sixth former. I turned 50 this year.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,408
    The optics of another junior doctors strike close to polling day is a nightmare for Sunak .

    Junior doctors want rid of the Tories although I can’t see Labour offering anything close to what they want.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,045

    James_M said:

    I actually think the comment below about the Conservatives owning some of the disappointments isn't a bad idea. It's clear at the moment the voters aren't listening and there is little to grab the media's attention. By saying that 'we've been in power for 14 years, a period with lots of change - recovery from the financial crash, Covid, war in Europe. We have tried and made mistakes in policy and behaviour. As PM I have worked to set a course and we are seeing some progress but not enough etc' - it isn't a message to rally masses, but it might get enough people thinking, 'I like the humility, governing is hard' and switch the dial a bit.

    Cameron should be able to tell them that the Tories won a majority in 2015, after five years of austerity, because they were upfront about the fact that some pain was necessary - we're all in it together was a blinder.

    The Tory messaging right now is complete cobblers in comparison. It starts off with how hard everything has been, Covid, Ukraine, but then it jumps straight into claims that the government have made everything hunky-dory with tax cuts. And it just isn't true. Things are not hunky-dory.
    Cameron won a majority in 2015 on a manifesto commitment to remove the family home from IHT up to a million pounds (which the LDs had blocked in the coalition) and by promising a referendum on EU membership to keep the UKIP vote down.

    Had Cameron not promised either but more austerity only it would almost certainly have been a hung parliament in 2015, even if the Tories still won most seats
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,060
    megasaur said:

    Keir Starmer: “Read my lips - I will bring immigration numbers down. If you trust me with the keys to No 10 I will make you this promise: I will control our borders and make sure British businesses are helped to hire Brits first.”

    https://x.com/mrharrycole/status/1796976637348610157

    He's completely full of shit.
    I think cracking down on the employers of illegal immigrants is a pretty obvious move and one which has been proposed by the great and good on here for years or
    And it's been going on for years. It's already being done. To not do so would be obviously stupid.

    This is just politicking. SKS showing a bit of his leg, before he shows another bit to someone else next week.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,837

    AlsoLei said:

    All the polls are wrong. There are too many assumptions. It doesn't mean the Tories will not get dicked.... But the margin of defeat is unlikely to be as suggested....imho....

    Are you arguing for some sort of systemic error across all pollsters, across all methodologies?

    Or is it that you think something will happen during the remainder of the campaign to change peoples' minds?
    When pollsters fuck it up... they change their methodologies... simples.
    Have they fucked it up? Which methodology has been changed? Why are we still quoting that fucking puppet meerkat?
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,579
    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    My earlier point made in a headline.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 4,628
    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    My earlier point made in a headline.
    Don’t be modest, you’ve been shouting for Becks to run the foreign office for ages.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,060
    Maybe the Tories should just reciprocate and tell the electorate to go fuck themselves.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,669
    nico679 said:

    The optics of another junior doctors strike close to polling day is a nightmare for Sunak .

    Junior doctors want rid of the Tories although I can’t see Labour offering anything close to what they want.

    I think it could be the opposite. Puts Starmer is a slightly tricky position and a reminder that these issues will not go away for a Labour Government.

    A sliver of hope there for PB Tories.
  • Options
    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    DougSeal said:

    AlsoLei said:

    All the polls are wrong. There are too many assumptions. It doesn't mean the Tories will not get dicked.... But the margin of defeat is unlikely to be as suggested....imho....

    Are you arguing for some sort of systemic error across all pollsters, across all methodologies?

    Or is it that you think something will happen during the remainder of the campaign to change peoples' minds?
    When pollsters fuck it up... they change their methodologies... simples.
    Have they fucked it up? Which methodology has been changed? Why are we still quoting that fucking puppet meerkat?
    Seal on meerkat turf war.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,579

    boulay said:

    Oh boy.

    It’s ok CR, it’s the Tories’ Rorke’s Drift. It looks impossible but if we hold firm we can defeat the lefty hordes. You, me and Colour Sergeant Moon Rabbit.
    Trouble is Sunak would encourage the Zulus to charge early, and then the two ranks would turn at and fire at each other:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-mySvuC9MMc&pp=ygUOenVsdSBsaW5lIGZpcmU=
    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    Oh boy.

    It’s ok CR, it’s the Tories’ Rorke’s Drift. It looks impossible but if we hold firm we can defeat the lefty hordes. You, me and Colour Sergeant Moon Rabbit.
    Trouble is Sunak would encourage the Zulus to charge early, and then the two ranks would turn at and fire at each other:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-mySvuC9MMc&pp=ygUOenVsdSBsaW5lIGZpcmU=
    Maybe the effects of Andy Street losing will do for him as in Zulu Dawn “comes all this way just to be killed by a bullet from Birmingham”.
    Interestingly, Birmingham City’s hooligan firm are called… The Zulus.
    One of the few left of centre ones and all.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,669
    megasaur said:

    DougSeal said:

    AlsoLei said:

    All the polls are wrong. There are too many assumptions. It doesn't mean the Tories will not get dicked.... But the margin of defeat is unlikely to be as suggested....imho....

    Are you arguing for some sort of systemic error across all pollsters, across all methodologies?

    Or is it that you think something will happen during the remainder of the campaign to change peoples' minds?
    When pollsters fuck it up... they change their methodologies... simples.
    Have they fucked it up? Which methodology has been changed? Why are we still quoting that fucking puppet meerkat?
    Seal on meerkat turf war.
    Seals are surprisingly quick on land
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,615
    edited June 1

    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    Oh boy.

    It’s ok CR, it’s the Tories’ Rorke’s Drift. It looks impossible but if we hold firm we can defeat the lefty hordes. You, me and Colour Sergeant Moon Rabbit.
    Trouble is Sunak would encourage the Zulus to charge early, and then the two ranks would turn at and fire at each other:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-mySvuC9MMc&pp=ygUOenVsdSBsaW5lIGZpcmU=
    Maybe the effects of Andy Street losing will do for him as in Zulu Dawn “comes all this way just to be killed by a bullet from Birmingham”.
    "Gentlemen, it's time to save the colours."
    "...he saves the worst to the last. He says you lost the king's colours."
    "The fault was not mine sir, it was Major Lennox!"
    "Major Lennox answered with his life! As you should have done if you had any sense of honor. You lost the colors of the King of England, you disgraced yourself, you shamed yourself! The South Essex is stood down in name: if I wipe the name i may wipe the shame..."
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,990
    nico679 said:

    The optics of another junior doctors strike close to polling day is a nightmare for Sunak .

    Junior doctors want rid of the Tories although I can’t see Labour offering anything close to what they want.

    Whether there is a note left or not, there is no money.

    BTW reaching a settlement with the junior doctors alone is going to cost multiple times the money raised by the non dom nonsense (assuming that raises any money at all of course).
  • Options
    ClippPClippP Posts: 1,781

    Maybe the Tories should just reciprocate and tell the electorate to go fuck themselves.

    Effectively that is what they have been doing for quite a long time now.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,397
    In other news, this is apparently the latest advance in Russian armoured mobility on the battlefield.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,045
    James_M said:

    I actually think the comment below about the Conservatives owning some of the disappointments isn't a bad idea. It's clear at the moment the voters aren't listening and there is little to grab the media's attention. By saying that 'we've been in power for 14 years, a period with lots of change - recovery from the financial crash, Covid, war in Europe. We have tried and made mistakes in policy and behaviour. As PM I have worked to set a course and we are seeing some progress but not enough etc' - it isn't a message to rally masses, but it might get enough people thinking, 'I like the humility, governing is hard' and switch the dial a bit.

    Carter tried that approach in 1980, it didn't work
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,837

    Maybe the Tories should just reciprocate and tell the electorate to go fuck themselves.

    Ungrateful bastards eh?
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 4,628
    megasaur said:

    DougSeal said:

    AlsoLei said:

    All the polls are wrong. There are too many assumptions. It doesn't mean the Tories will not get dicked.... But the margin of defeat is unlikely to be as suggested....imho....

    Are you arguing for some sort of systemic error across all pollsters, across all methodologies?

    Or is it that you think something will happen during the remainder of the campaign to change peoples' minds?
    When pollsters fuck it up... they change their methodologies... simples.
    Have they fucked it up? Which methodology has been changed? Why are we still quoting that fucking puppet meerkat?
    Seal on meerkat turf war.
    We just need a bird to join the fight so it’s the animal equivalent of rock, paper, scissors. Air, water, land. If only Jonathan Seagullis was a PB poster.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,010

    AlsoLei said:

    All the polls are wrong. There are too many assumptions. It doesn't mean the Tories will not get dicked.... But the margin of defeat is unlikely to be as suggested....imho....

    Are you arguing for some sort of systemic error across all pollsters, across all methodologies?

    Or is it that you think something will happen during the remainder of the campaign to change peoples' minds?
    The polls are not wrong.

    Conservatism exists not to stop progress, nor keep everything the same, but in acknowledgement natures way is everything forever changes, and we need to conserve what is of value and importance. You build a wall to keep the wild things out. Within the wall you build a path to get you from A to B safely in the dark or inclement weather. Where your way leads across the stream, you build a bridge. If you now do nothing to conserve the path and the wall and the bridge, nature will take them from you. It will change your world and take everything you value from you. Those things you want your children to learn in the right way, whilst on your knee? they will learn it first elsewhere, in the wrong way. The world needs Conservative thinking and Conservative action.

    We have a Conservative Party in the UK that used to be very good at this, and often rewarded with power, but it has lost its way. Distracted by other things, it’s stopped focussing on its main reason to be - to conserve what is of value and what is important. The party has become an echo chamber for right wing capitalist think tanks and NeoCon groups, its leaders forgetting when they get excited by idea’s, they will ultimately have to defend them on the floor of parliament and at the ballot box.

    Echo Chamber Government is not the way to lead a party or govern a country.
    "Well, Clarice, have the lambs Tories stopped screaming?"
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,010

    boulay said:

    Oh boy.

    It’s ok CR, it’s the Tories’ Rorke’s Drift. It looks impossible but if we hold firm we can defeat the lefty hordes. You, me and Colour Sergeant Moon Rabbit.
    Trouble is Sunak would encourage the Zulus to charge early, and then the two ranks would turn at and fire at each other:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-mySvuC9MMc&pp=ygUOenVsdSBsaW5lIGZpcmU=
    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    Oh boy.

    It’s ok CR, it’s the Tories’ Rorke’s Drift. It looks impossible but if we hold firm we can defeat the lefty hordes. You, me and Colour Sergeant Moon Rabbit.
    Trouble is Sunak would encourage the Zulus to charge early, and then the two ranks would turn at and fire at each other:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-mySvuC9MMc&pp=ygUOenVsdSBsaW5lIGZpcmU=
    Maybe the effects of Andy Street losing will do for him as in Zulu Dawn “comes all this way just to be killed by a bullet from Birmingham”.
    Interestingly, Birmingham City’s hooligan firm are called… The Zulus.
    "Tories, sir! Fousands of 'em!!"
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,837
    megasaur said:

    DougSeal said:

    AlsoLei said:

    All the polls are wrong. There are too many assumptions. It doesn't mean the Tories will not get dicked.... But the margin of defeat is unlikely to be as suggested....imho....

    Are you arguing for some sort of systemic error across all pollsters, across all methodologies?

    Or is it that you think something will happen during the remainder of the campaign to change peoples' minds?
    When pollsters fuck it up... they change their methodologies... simples.
    Have they fucked it up? Which methodology has been changed? Why are we still quoting that fucking puppet meerkat?
    Seal on meerkat turf war.
    I have my faults but I don’t have a catchphrase people employ in lieu of a sense of humour (not that squareroot2 has no sense of humour I hasten to add!)
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,990
    Never saw Sancho play like this at OT.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,634
    edited June 1
    I’ve discovered France’s answer to one of our left behind Northern towns. St Quentin, where we are staying overnight on the way back home.

    OK the dire November weather doesn’t help, but this town is quite something.

    A large central square, Saturday evening, grand Flemish-style civic buildings, 2 people in the entire space kicking a football around.

    Few restaurants or bars apart from one gaudy red pub cum diner that looks like a TGI Fridays, one proper brasserie, some pizza takeaways and a branch of Subway. Subway, FFS.

    Empty shop fronts. 80s and 90s red brick redevelopments around the 12th century basilica (which was open at 10pm, in the dark. Huge. Rather spooky), and an Ibis looking like an old Travelodge facing the West door across an archaeological dig.

    Litter. Virtual silence. Patchy Drizzle. All it needs is a Poundland and a branch of British Heart Foundation and it could be somewhere the BBC go to explain Brexit. This is of course the heart of Le Pen country and I understand why. It is blighted.


This discussion has been closed.