Amusing (one word for it anyway) how PB's usual shit-stirrers are positively wallowing in their preferred Putinist pig-shit after the Trump guilty-as-sin verdict.
Keep up your bad work on behalf of the destruction of democracy, as it's all your good for.
One of the main tenets of Putinist 'managed democracy' is that undesirable candidates who might stand a chance of winning must be prevented from running. Only controlled opposition is permitted.
The attempts to sideline Trump by non-democratic means are American Putinism.
Another point of Putinism is the rich, well-connected and slimy get away with everything because the courts never find against them.
In this way, America convicting a rich, powerful white man of a crime through due legal process is demonstrating America is the very antithesis of Putinism.
Do they? That will be news to the many rich, well-connected Russians who fell foul of the regime.
Amusing (one word for it anyway) how PB's usual shit-stirrers are positively wallowing in their preferred Putinist pig-shit after the Trump guilty-as-sin verdict.
Keep up your bad work on behalf of the destruction of democracy, as it's all your good for.
One of the main tenets of Putinist 'managed democracy' is that undesirable candidates who might stand a chance of winning must be prevented from running. Only controlled opposition is permitted.
The attempts to sideline Trump by non-democratic means are American Putinism.
Another point of Putinism is the rich, well-connected and slimy get away with everything because the courts never find against them.
In this way, America convicting a rich, powerful white man of a crime through due legal process is demonstrating America is the very antithesis of Putinism.
And the trial of the President's son starts next week. Also not a story you read about Russia very often.
Amusing (one word for it anyway) how PB's usual shit-stirrers are positively wallowing in their preferred Putinist pig-shit after the Trump guilty-as-sin verdict.
Keep up your bad work on behalf of the destruction of democracy, as it's all your good for.
One of the main tenets of Putinist 'managed democracy' is that undesirable candidates who might stand a chance of winning must be prevented from running. Only controlled opposition is permitted.
The attempts to sideline Trump by non-democratic means are American Putinism.
Another point of Putinism is the rich, well-connected and slimy get away with everything because the courts never find against them.
In this way, America convicting a rich, powerful white man of a crime through due legal process is demonstrating America is the very antithesis of Putinism.
Do they? That will be news to the many rich, well-connected Russians who fell foul of the regime.
They fall out of windows, or hit by random Ukrainian air strikes. Or indeed are kidnapped from aircraft. Not prosecuted through the courts. Only ordinary Russians do that.
The Abbott furore has made little difference to the polls even after the BBC and the rest of the media have cremated it for 3 days.
Labour messed up and Starmer should have just cleared the matter up earlier.
I don’t think Abbott is a racist or anti-Semitic and not allowing her to stand would have kept the drama going into next week .
Her comments were ill judged given the current climate but really what I took from them was the bleeding obvious . You can’t hide your skin colour so the racism you suffer is ongoing .
Are we actually discussing the relative merits of getting 60 seats rather than 10?
If the Tories fall below 150 seats it is catastrophic for them. End of.
No it’s not. It’s very very bad. Its a 1997 style knockout when they went down to 158 seats
“Catastrophic” is what the present polls are indicating: something unprecedented. Under 100 seats
Catastrophic would actually be less than 50 seats and fall behind Reform on voteshare and the LDs on seats.
If the Tories remain main opposition to Labour on votes and seats even if only polling 50-150 seats, while such a landslide defeat would be very bad it would not be as terminal as would catastrophic
I think truly disastrous would be fewer than Lib Dems.
Dianne Abbott is a liar and a racist and shouldn't be allowed to stand for Labour again.
But SKS has handled this badly. He should have stuck to her not being allowed to stand again.
He's had a shocker. The Tory meme about him being under Rayner's thumb is totally deserved.
PB Tory favourite Abbott is awfully entitled. Starmer has well and truly dropped the ball.
P.S. Starmer can't afford to hand the narrative to the Tory media again. Rishi looks like a drowned rat, one news cycle. Starmer dumps on Abbott, and it's the only news story since Monday night.
Methinks it's a GOOD news story for Starmer and Labour.
What that he has caved
I look forward to SKS fans squirming reverse ferret on the subject!
I advise caution as there is room for a further SKS U Turn before Tuesday so hang your fire.
Spare a thought for the Treasurer of Newcastle-Upon-Lyme Conservative Party.
Paying for all those election leaflets already being printed, paid for deliveries (Royal Mail need to be paid 2+ weeks in advance), past social media ads and leaflets etc etc.
And then having to write off the lot and start again.
What a shame! Never mind! They still have millions and millions to get through....
Amusing (one word for it anyway) how PB's usual shit-stirrers are positively wallowing in their preferred Putinist pig-shit after the Trump guilty-as-sin verdict.
Keep up your bad work on behalf of the destruction of democracy, as it's all your good for.
One of the main tenets of Putinist 'managed democracy' is that undesirable candidates who might stand a chance of winning must be prevented from running. Only controlled opposition is permitted.
The attempts to sideline Trump by non-democratic means are American Putinism.
Another point of Putinism is the rich, well-connected and slimy get away with everything because the courts never find against them.
In this way, America convicting a rich, powerful white man of a crime through due legal process is demonstrating America is the very antithesis of Putinism.
Do they? That will be news to the many rich, well-connected Russians who fell foul of the regime.
They fall out of windows, or hit by random Ukrainian air strikes. Or indeed are kidnapped from aircraft. Not prosecuted through the courts. Only ordinary Russians do that.
An anti-war candidate who gathered unexpected momentum has been banned by Russia’s electoral authority from running against Vladimir Putin in the carefully managed presidential elections in March.
The central election commission said it had found “irregularities” in over 9,000 of more than 100,000 signatures of support submitted by Boris Nadezhdin. That figure was three times higher than the allowable 5% error rate and provided grounds for the commission to disqualify him.
Are we actually discussing the relative merits of getting 60 seats rather than 10?
If the Tories fall below 150 seats it is catastrophic for them. End of.
No it’s not. It’s very very bad. Its a 1997 style knockout when they went down to 158 seats
“Catastrophic” is what the present polls are indicating: something unprecedented. Under 100 seats
Catastrophic would actually be less than 50 seats and fall behind Reform on voteshare and the LDs on seats.
If the Tories remain main opposition to Labour on votes and seats even if only polling 50-150 seats, while such a landslide defeat would be very bad it would not be as terminal as would catastrophic
I think truly disastrous would be fewer than Lib Dems.
Fascinated to see the scale of the expectation management going on - it's positively Danian: "Dinosaurs? What dinosaur extinction? Look, we've got some sparrows and things here."
I’ve managed to find the Facebook page of the Independent candidate for Witham. Good looking young woman, if, I suspect somewhat naive about politics. Although she has apparently sat as an Indie on the very politicised local council.
Campaign Against Antisemitism @antisemitism Diane Abbott, who last year claimed that Jewish people cannot suffer “racism” and apparently only suffer prejudice akin to that experienced by those with red hair, is being allowed to run as a @UKLabour candidate.
Ms Abbott, who had minimised antisemitism before, was sent on a course and told to apologise. Her apology included some story about having sent a newspaper the wrong version of a letter, and her apology was reportedly later followed by another instance of antisemitism-denial.
Ms Abbott must face proper consequences for her actions and actually show that she has changed. There is scant evidence of this.
Sir Keir Starmer has transformed the Labour Party from what it once was under the days of Jeremy Corbyn, but the work is not yet complete, and this latest episode will be reminiscent to many of the politically-expedient dithering around the withdrawal of support for the Labour candidate in the Rochdale by-election a few months ago.
Just as what happened in Rochdale was a regressive step, so is this.
Just as the decision to stand by Azhar Ali in Rochdale was reversed, so must this decision be reversed.
Are we actually discussing the relative merits of getting 60 seats rather than 10?
If the Tories fall below 150 seats it is catastrophic for them. End of.
No it’s not. It’s very very bad. Its a 1997 style knockout when they went down to 158 seats
“Catastrophic” is what the present polls are indicating: something unprecedented. Under 100 seats
Catastrophic would actually be less than 50 seats and fall behind Reform on voteshare and the LDs on seats.
If the Tories remain main opposition to Labour on votes and seats even if only polling 50-150 seats, while such a landslide defeat would be very bad it would not be as terminal as would catastrophic
I think truly disastrous would be fewer than Lib Dems.
I’ve managed to find the Facebook page of the Independent candidate for Witham. Good looking young woman, if, I suspect somewhat naive about politics. Although she has apparently sat as an Indie on the very politicised local council.
Amusing (one word for it anyway) how PB's usual shit-stirrers are positively wallowing in their preferred Putinist pig-shit after the Trump guilty-as-sin verdict.
Keep up your bad work on behalf of the destruction of democracy, as it's all your good for.
One of the main tenets of Putinist 'managed democracy' is that undesirable candidates who might stand a chance of winning must be prevented from running. Only controlled opposition is permitted.
The attempts to sideline Trump by non-democratic means are American Putinism.
Another point of Putinism is the rich, well-connected and slimy get away with everything because the courts never find against them.
In this way, America convicting a rich, powerful white man of a crime through due legal process is demonstrating America is the very antithesis of Putinism.
Do they? That will be news to the many rich, well-connected Russians who fell foul of the regime.
They fall out of windows, or hit by random Ukrainian air strikes. Or indeed are kidnapped from aircraft. Not prosecuted through the courts. Only ordinary Russians do that.
An anti-war candidate who gathered unexpected momentum has been banned by Russia’s electoral authority from running against Vladimir Putin in the carefully managed presidential elections in March.
The central election commission said it had found “irregularities” in over 9,000 of more than 100,000 signatures of support submitted by Boris Nadezhdin. That figure was three times higher than the allowable 5% error rate and provided grounds for the commission to disqualify him.
Boris Nadezhdin is rich or well connected?
One person is saying things that are ‘simply not true’ here - but the things in question are about the reasons for Trump’s problems…
(Actually Romanian champagne, and it’s not a branded jacuzzi, and it’s transnistria out the window, not the USSR, but still)
what a wimpy bottle, lightweight.
Looks like Buckie.
Reminds me that I recently read a tasting review of Buckfast by a wine connoisseur.
'Buckfast Tonic Wine (No Vintage)
Screw cap, took it off about 30 minutes before to bring in some air. Apparently made by monks in England. Decided to try while cooking dinner. Poured into a glass, first glance has a very inky almost brownish color that you see in older wines. Very syrupy, liquid clings to the side of the glass when swirled. Almost 15% ABV.
Stuck my nose in and was hit with something I’ve never experienced before. Barnyardy funk (in a bad way) almost like a dead animal in a bird’s nest. A mix of flat Coca Cola and caramel with a whiff of gun metal.
On the palate, overwhelming sweetness and sugar. Cherry Cola mixed with Benadryl. Unlike anything I’ve tasted. I’m not sure what this liquid is but it is not wine, I’m actually not sure what it is but it tastes like something a doctor would prescribe. A chemical concoction of the highest degree. Can only compare it to a Four Loko.
Managed to make it through a couple small glasses but not much more. Has absolutely ruined the evening drinking-wise for me as I tried to drink a nice Bordeaux after but the iron-like metallic sweet aftertaste I just couldn’t get out of my mouth even after a few glasses of water. I don’t drink a lot of coffee regularly so I also have mild heart palpitations from the caffeine after just drinking a bit of this and feel a slight migraine.
An ungodly concoction made by seemingly godly men. I believe the Vatican needs to send an exorcist over to Buckfast Abbey as the devil’s works are cleary present there. After tasting this “wine,” the way I feel can only be described as akin to being under a bridge on one’s knees orally pleasing a vagrant while simultaneously drinking liquified meth through a dirty rag.
I’ve drank a lot of wines in my life and will never forget this one.'
Amusing (one word for it anyway) how PB's usual shit-stirrers are positively wallowing in their preferred Putinist pig-shit after the Trump guilty-as-sin verdict.
Keep up your bad work on behalf of the destruction of democracy, as it's all your good for.
One of the main tenets of Putinist 'managed democracy' is that undesirable candidates who might stand a chance of winning must be prevented from running. Only controlled opposition is permitted.
The attempts to sideline Trump by non-democratic means are American Putinism.
Another point of Putinism is the rich, well-connected and slimy get away with everything because the courts never find against them.
In this way, America convicting a rich, powerful white man of a crime through due legal process is demonstrating America is the very antithesis of Putinism.
Do they? That will be news to the many rich, well-connected Russians who fell foul of the regime.
They fall out of windows, or hit by random Ukrainian air strikes. Or indeed are kidnapped from aircraft. Not prosecuted through the courts. Only ordinary Russians do that.
An anti-war candidate who gathered unexpected momentum has been banned by Russia’s electoral authority from running against Vladimir Putin in the carefully managed presidential elections in March.
The central election commission said it had found “irregularities” in over 9,000 of more than 100,000 signatures of support submitted by Boris Nadezhdin. That figure was three times higher than the allowable 5% error rate and provided grounds for the commission to disqualify him.
Boris Nadezhdin is rich or well connected?
One person is saying things that are ‘simply not true’ here - but the things in question are about the reasons for Trump’s problems…
Khodorkovsky was certainly rich and well-connected.
@malcolmg There's this YouTube about how the Scots version of Wikipedia was hijacked and faked. I think you might know more about the real Scots language than me: care to have a look?
Gosh, I hadn't heard Trump speak for a while. He sounds unhinged.
It doesn't make Biden any more or less sharp, and I don't want to start that whole thing again, but the discourse on Biden's age really does conceal how incredibly weird Trump sounds almost every time he speaks.
I’ve managed to find the Facebook page of the Independent candidate for Witham. Good looking young woman, if, I suspect somewhat naive about politics. Although she has apparently sat as an Indie on the very politicised local council.
Is your Green Candidate nice looking?
Late middle-aged gentleman. Wouldn’t be my type if I had inclination that way. Which I haven’t.
Spare a thought for the Treasurer of Newcastle-Upon-Lyme Conservative Party.
Paying for all those election leaflets already being printed, paid for deliveries (Royal Mail need to be paid 2+ weeks in advance), past social media ads and leaflets etc etc.
And then having to write off the lot and start again.
Amusing (one word for it anyway) how PB's usual shit-stirrers are positively wallowing in their preferred Putinist pig-shit after the Trump guilty-as-sin verdict.
Keep up your bad work on behalf of the destruction of democracy, as it's all your good for.
One of the main tenets of Putinist 'managed democracy' is that undesirable candidates who might stand a chance of winning must be prevented from running. Only controlled opposition is permitted.
The attempts to sideline Trump by non-democratic means are American Putinism.
Another point of Putinism is the rich, well-connected and slimy get away with everything because the courts never find against them.
In this way, America convicting a rich, powerful white man of a crime through due legal process is demonstrating America is the very antithesis of Putinism.
Do they? That will be news to the many rich, well-connected Russians who fell foul of the regime.
They fall out of windows, or hit by random Ukrainian air strikes. Or indeed are kidnapped from aircraft. Not prosecuted through the courts. Only ordinary Russians do that.
An anti-war candidate who gathered unexpected momentum has been banned by Russia’s electoral authority from running against Vladimir Putin in the carefully managed presidential elections in March.
The central election commission said it had found “irregularities” in over 9,000 of more than 100,000 signatures of support submitted by Boris Nadezhdin. That figure was three times higher than the allowable 5% error rate and provided grounds for the commission to disqualify him.
Boris Nadezhdin is rich or well connected?
One person is saying things that are ‘simply not true’ here - but the things in question are about the reasons for Trump’s problems…
I hesitate to call william dumb, but also find this hard to disagree with.
If you become a national news story over something that is arguably criminal, there is a very good chance you will be charged. No matter who you are...
..Do people who buy guns despite having used drugs in the past routinely get charged?
Fuck no. It's super rare.
BUT IF YOU WRITE A MEMOIR ABOUT YOUR DRUG USE that a bunch of people read, yes, you can catch a charge...
Not much movement - no evidence yet that the election campaign has impacted the polling average.
C - 22.7%, L - 45.3%, LD - 9.2%, SNP - 2.7%, G - 5.5%, R - 11.8%
I am keeping my weekly average with just YouGov, Deltapoll, We Think, Savanta, Techne and Redfield & Wilton because of their track record of weekly polling. This enables a consistent approach (assuming that these companies do not change their methodology during the election campaign) on a compareable basis.
Other averages with other polling companies are available.
From this weeks thread you have 5 Nowcasters 1squeeze question Pollster and Zero reweighting companies
Hence your Poll includes 5 companies that produce the highest Lab leads and one that is in the middle whilst you include none from the companies with the lowest lead. I cant see why More in Common Polls which have been weekly in recent times are excluded?
Limits the usefulness IMO
Yor lead of 22.6 compares with actual mean of this weeks polls of circa 19.5
A like-for-like comparison over a long time period allows for better detection of changes over time, even if you'd be wary of a common systematic bias in this case.
I’ve managed to find the Facebook page of the Independent candidate for Witham. Good looking young woman, if, I suspect somewhat naive about politics. Although she has apparently sat as an Indie on the very politicised local council.
Is your Green Candidate nice looking?
Late middle-aged gentleman. Wouldn’t be my type if I had inclination that way. Which I haven’t.
Oh no please tell me you are a policy man rather than a (insert favourite part of anatomy here) man
Trump now claiming he's never falsified business records before. Which considering the massive civil suit he lost in NY, which involved the falsification of business records, is odd.
Campaign Against Antisemitism @antisemitism Diane Abbott, who last year claimed that Jewish people cannot suffer “racism” and apparently only suffer prejudice akin to that experienced by those with red hair, is being allowed to run as a @UKLabour candidate.
Ms Abbott, who had minimised antisemitism before, was sent on a course and told to apologise. Her apology included some story about having sent a newspaper the wrong version of a letter, and her apology was reportedly later followed by another instance of antisemitism-denial.
Ms Abbott must face proper consequences for her actions and actually show that she has changed. There is scant evidence of this.
Sir Keir Starmer has transformed the Labour Party from what it once was under the days of Jeremy Corbyn, but the work is not yet complete, and this latest episode will be reminiscent to many of the politically-expedient dithering around the withdrawal of support for the Labour candidate in the Rochdale by-election a few months ago.
Just as what happened in Rochdale was a regressive step, so is this.
Just as the decision to stand by Azhar Ali in Rochdale was reversed, so must this decision be reversed.
The CAA are misreporting what she said and should STFU and stop telling Labour what to do . Abbott is not a racist or anti-Semite. Seriously I’m sick to the back teeth of the CAA and their constant pearl clutching and attempts to put pressure on Labour.
Starmer has made a lot of effort on the anti-Semitism front and really Labour is now constantly walking on egg shells and overly compensating for past issues .
Trump now claiming he's never falsified business records before. Which considering the massive civil suit he lost in NY, which involved the falsification of business records, is odd.
Is his memory going ?
Perhaps with his punctilious commitment to accuracy, he just means he's never been proved to have done it beyond reasonable doubt, but only on the balance of probabilities?
Trump now claiming he's never falsified business records before. Which considering the massive civil suit he lost in NY, which involved the falsification of business records, is odd.
Is his memory going ?
Trump says this could happen to anyone. Sure, because who hasn't slept with a porn star then tried to hush it up so it doesn't damage our chance of getting elected?
Amusing (one word for it anyway) how PB's usual shit-stirrers are positively wallowing in their preferred Putinist pig-shit after the Trump guilty-as-sin verdict.
Keep up your bad work on behalf of the destruction of democracy, as it's all your good for.
One of the main tenets of Putinist 'managed democracy' is that undesirable candidates who might stand a chance of winning must be prevented from running. Only controlled opposition is permitted.
The attempts to sideline Trump by non-democratic means are American Putinism.
Another point of Putinism is the rich, well-connected and slimy get away with everything because the courts never find against them.
In this way, America convicting a rich, powerful white man of a crime through due legal process is demonstrating America is the very antithesis of Putinism.
Do they? That will be news to the many rich, well-connected Russians who fell foul of the regime.
They fall out of windows, or hit by random Ukrainian air strikes. Or indeed are kidnapped from aircraft. Not prosecuted through the courts. Only ordinary Russians do that.
An anti-war candidate who gathered unexpected momentum has been banned by Russia’s electoral authority from running against Vladimir Putin in the carefully managed presidential elections in March.
The central election commission said it had found “irregularities” in over 9,000 of more than 100,000 signatures of support submitted by Boris Nadezhdin. That figure was three times higher than the allowable 5% error rate and provided grounds for the commission to disqualify him.
Boris Nadezhdin is rich or well connected?
One person is saying things that are ‘simply not true’ here - but the things in question are about the reasons for Trump’s problems…
Khodorkovsky was certainly rich and well-connected.
I’ve managed to find the Facebook page of the Independent candidate for Witham. Good looking young woman, if, I suspect somewhat naive about politics. Although she has apparently sat as an Indie on the very politicised local council.
Is your Green Candidate nice looking?
Late middle-aged gentleman. Wouldn’t be my type if I had inclination that way. Which I haven’t.
Oh no please tell me you are a policy man rather than a (insert favourite part of anatomy here) man
Does OKC simply vote for the candidate most adept at asset management?
Trump now claiming he's never falsified business records before. Which considering the massive civil suit he lost in NY, which involved the falsification of business records, is odd.
Is his memory going ?
Trump says this could happen to anyone. Sure, because who hasn't slept with a porn star then tried to hush it up so it doesn't damage our chance of getting elected?
I’ve managed to find the Facebook page of the Independent candidate for Witham. Good looking young woman, if, I suspect somewhat naive about politics. Although she has apparently sat as an Indie on the very politicised local council.
Is your Green Candidate nice looking?
Late middle-aged gentleman. Wouldn’t be my type if I had inclination that way. Which I haven’t.
You haven't? You've never, ever had any inclination to vote Green? Not even a long time ago, when drunk?
Trump now claiming he's never falsified business records before. Which considering the massive civil suit he lost in NY, which involved the falsification of business records, is odd.
Is his memory going ?
We've all seen it. Everybody knows. He's the most innocent man on the planet. We know, Everybody knows. The main point to note is that he's got the average American's back. Which is really handy if the average American is as bent as he is, and if he actually would stand up for the average bent American.
Amusing (one word for it anyway) how PB's usual shit-stirrers are positively wallowing in their preferred Putinist pig-shit after the Trump guilty-as-sin verdict.
Keep up your bad work on behalf of the destruction of democracy, as it's all your good for.
One of the main tenets of Putinist 'managed democracy' is that undesirable candidates who might stand a chance of winning must be prevented from running. Only controlled opposition is permitted.
The attempts to sideline Trump by non-democratic means are American Putinism.
Another point of Putinism is the rich, well-connected and slimy get away with everything because the courts never find against them.
In this way, America convicting a rich, powerful white man of a crime through due legal process is demonstrating America is the very antithesis of Putinism.
Do they? That will be news to the many rich, well-connected Russians who fell foul of the regime.
They fall out of windows, or hit by random Ukrainian air strikes. Or indeed are kidnapped from aircraft. Not prosecuted through the courts. Only ordinary Russians do that.
An anti-war candidate who gathered unexpected momentum has been banned by Russia’s electoral authority from running against Vladimir Putin in the carefully managed presidential elections in March.
The central election commission said it had found “irregularities” in over 9,000 of more than 100,000 signatures of support submitted by Boris Nadezhdin. That figure was three times higher than the allowable 5% error rate and provided grounds for the commission to disqualify him.
Boris Nadezhdin is rich or well connected?
One person is saying things that are ‘simply not true’ here - but the things in question are about the reasons for Trump’s problems…
I hesitate to call william dumb, but also find this hard to disagree with.
If you become a national news story over something that is arguably criminal, there is a very good chance you will be charged. No matter who you are...
..Do people who buy guns despite having used drugs in the past routinely get charged?
Fuck no. It's super rare.
BUT IF YOU WRITE A MEMOIR ABOUT YOUR DRUG USE that a bunch of people read, yes, you can catch a charge...
But that's not what he's saying. He's saying, in effect, this is a conspiracy to stop Trump running and compared it to shenanigans by Putin using fraudulent cases to fit up his political opponents. Which is clearly both dishonest and whataboutery. Trump has been found guilty of a crime after a trial which had no involvement form the government. If Biden wanted Trump eliminated Putin style, there would have been a highly unfortunate accidental discharge of a Secret Service agent's sidearm while it was pointed straight at Trump's head.
What you are saying is that Trump is a victim of his own stupidity in brazenly breaking the law and making it a national issue, leading to his conviction, which is true but also rather different.
Campaign Against Antisemitism @antisemitism Diane Abbott, who last year claimed that Jewish people cannot suffer “racism” and apparently only suffer prejudice akin to that experienced by those with red hair, is being allowed to run as a @UKLabour candidate.
Ms Abbott, who had minimised antisemitism before, was sent on a course and told to apologise. Her apology included some story about having sent a newspaper the wrong version of a letter, and her apology was reportedly later followed by another instance of antisemitism-denial.
Ms Abbott must face proper consequences for her actions and actually show that she has changed. There is scant evidence of this.
Sir Keir Starmer has transformed the Labour Party from what it once was under the days of Jeremy Corbyn, but the work is not yet complete, and this latest episode will be reminiscent to many of the politically-expedient dithering around the withdrawal of support for the Labour candidate in the Rochdale by-election a few months ago.
Just as what happened in Rochdale was a regressive step, so is this.
Just as the decision to stand by Azhar Ali in Rochdale was reversed, so must this decision be reversed.
The CAA are misreporting what she said and should STFU and stop telling Labour what to do . Abbott is not a racist or anti-Semite. Seriously I’m sick to the back teeth of the CAA and their constant pearl clutching and attempts to put pressure on Labour.
Starmer has made a lot of effort on the anti-Semitism front and really Labour is now constantly walking on egg shells and overly compensating for past issues .
The CAA have lost the plot. That stuff with the cop at the protest was really dodgy.
I saw him interviewed . To be blunt he was absolutely awful, arrogant and quite nasty and his organization has been accused of taking donations from some very dubious individuals.
Not much movement - no evidence yet that the election campaign has impacted the polling average.
C - 22.7%, L - 45.3%, LD - 9.2%, SNP - 2.7%, G - 5.5%, R - 11.8%
I am keeping my weekly average with just YouGov, Deltapoll, We Think, Savanta, Techne and Redfield & Wilton because of their track record of weekly polling. This enables a consistent approach (assuming that these companies do not change their methodology during the election campaign) on a compareable basis.
Other averages with other polling companies are available.
From this weeks thread you have 5 Nowcasters 1squeeze question Pollster and Zero reweighting companies
Hence your Poll includes 5 companies that produce the highest Lab leads and one that is in the middle whilst you include none from the companies with the lowest lead. I cant see why More in Common Polls which have been weekly in recent times are excluded?
Limits the usefulness IMO
Yor lead of 22.6 compares with actual mean of this weeks polls of circa 19.5
I understand your view point. I do not want to change the six polling companies because they are the six which have produced weekly polling for almost 2 years.
I do not include More in Common which have provided weekly polls recently because if I did, I would not be able to compare on a consistent basis with the average now and the average 12 months ago.
The average is not trying to predict anything; all it is is a tracker of six polling companies with their particular in house methodologies. I am not suggesting that those six polling companies are any better than any other polling company.
What it does enable is a consistent approach to try and discover whether there has been movement from week to week in that average. By using an average of polls it should reduce statisical polling errors.
I think that we are likely to have weekly polls from More in Common, Opinium, Survation, BMG and potentially JL Partners as well as my six from now until 4 July. Other calculations of averages are quite feasible and will show different attributes.
Spare a thought for the Treasurer of Newcastle-Upon-Lyme Conservative Party.
Paying for all those election leaflets already being printed, paid for deliveries (Royal Mail need to be paid 2+ weeks in advance), past social media ads and leaflets etc etc.
And then having to write off the lot and start again.
Campaign Against Antisemitism @antisemitism Diane Abbott, who last year claimed that Jewish people cannot suffer “racism” and apparently only suffer prejudice akin to that experienced by those with red hair, is being allowed to run as a @UKLabour candidate.
Ms Abbott, who had minimised antisemitism before, was sent on a course and told to apologise. Her apology included some story about having sent a newspaper the wrong version of a letter, and her apology was reportedly later followed by another instance of antisemitism-denial.
Ms Abbott must face proper consequences for her actions and actually show that she has changed. There is scant evidence of this.
Sir Keir Starmer has transformed the Labour Party from what it once was under the days of Jeremy Corbyn, but the work is not yet complete, and this latest episode will be reminiscent to many of the politically-expedient dithering around the withdrawal of support for the Labour candidate in the Rochdale by-election a few months ago.
Just as what happened in Rochdale was a regressive step, so is this.
Just as the decision to stand by Azhar Ali in Rochdale was reversed, so must this decision be reversed.
The CAA are misreporting what she said and should STFU and stop telling Labour what to do . Abbott is not a racist or anti-Semite. Seriously I’m sick to the back teeth of the CAA and their constant pearl clutching and attempts to put pressure on Labour.
Starmer has made a lot of effort on the anti-Semitism front and really Labour is now constantly walking on egg shells and overly compensating for past issues .
Trump now claiming he's never falsified business records before. Which considering the massive civil suit he lost in NY, which involved the falsification of business records, is odd.
Is his memory going ?
Donald Trump thinks he is Big Brother. Thus black is white & etc., etc., etc., etc. ad infinitum.
Trump now claiming he's never falsified business records before. Which considering the massive civil suit he lost in NY, which involved the falsification of business records, is odd.
Spare a thought for the Treasurer of Newcastle-Upon-Lyme Conservative Party.
Paying for all those election leaflets already being printed, paid for deliveries (Royal Mail need to be paid 2+ weeks in advance), past social media ads and leaflets etc etc.
And then having to write off the lot and start again.
Newcastle-Upon-Lyme?
Surely a Wulfrunian should know better?
Newcastle-under-Tyne
Climate change probably makes that name change inevitable
And he seemed to be having a lovely day out. I don't think Rishi or Keir would have managed that.
And he's having another lovely day today, whilst talking about his free school meals policy:
Don't tell him but the one on the left of the picture looks like a youthful Angela Rayner and is voting Labour. Why does Davey, in the last few days, remind me slightly of Harry Worth (of blessed memory)?
Campaign Against Antisemitism @antisemitism Diane Abbott, who last year claimed that Jewish people cannot suffer “racism” and apparently only suffer prejudice akin to that experienced by those with red hair, is being allowed to run as a @UKLabour candidate.
Ms Abbott, who had minimised antisemitism before, was sent on a course and told to apologise. Her apology included some story about having sent a newspaper the wrong version of a letter, and her apology was reportedly later followed by another instance of antisemitism-denial.
Ms Abbott must face proper consequences for her actions and actually show that she has changed. There is scant evidence of this.
Sir Keir Starmer has transformed the Labour Party from what it once was under the days of Jeremy Corbyn, but the work is not yet complete, and this latest episode will be reminiscent to many of the politically-expedient dithering around the withdrawal of support for the Labour candidate in the Rochdale by-election a few months ago.
Just as what happened in Rochdale was a regressive step, so is this.
Just as the decision to stand by Azhar Ali in Rochdale was reversed, so must this decision be reversed.
The CAA are misreporting what she said and should STFU and stop telling Labour what to do . Abbott is not a racist or anti-Semite. Seriously I’m sick to the back teeth of the CAA and their constant pearl clutching and attempts to put pressure on Labour.
Starmer has made a lot of effort on the anti-Semitism front and really Labour is now constantly walking on egg shells and overly compensating for past issues .
And yet the CAA still never stop moaning . You know my thoughts on Starmer . I’d be much more enthusiastic with Angela in charge . I will vote to get rid of the Tories by voting Lib Dem in Eastbourne.
Amusingly, Biden who has all the delegates and only has to live 10 more weeks to be declared nominee is now at longer odds on Betfair to win that (1.14) than a Labour majority is in the UK in 5 weeks (1.11) even though a single vote has yet to be cast for the latter.
So people are basically saying it's more likely Biden dies in the next 2 months than SKS falls just slightly short in the next 5 weeks.
Not much movement - no evidence yet that the election campaign has impacted the polling average.
C - 22.7%, L - 45.3%, LD - 9.2%, SNP - 2.7%, G - 5.5%, R - 11.8%
I am keeping my weekly average with just YouGov, Deltapoll, We Think, Savanta, Techne and Redfield & Wilton because of their track record of weekly polling. This enables a consistent approach (assuming that these companies do not change their methodology during the election campaign) on a compareable basis.
Other averages with other polling companies are available.
From this weeks thread you have 5 Nowcasters 1squeeze question Pollster and Zero reweighting companies
Hence your Poll includes 5 companies that produce the highest Lab leads and one that is in the middle whilst you include none from the companies with the lowest lead. I cant see why More in Common Polls which have been weekly in recent times are excluded?
Limits the usefulness IMO
Yor lead of 22.6 compares with actual mean of this weeks polls of circa 19.5
I understand your view point. I do not want to change the six polling companies because they are the six which have produced weekly polling for almost 2 years.
I do not include More in Common which have provided weekly polls recently because if I did, I would not be able to compare on a consistent basis with the average now and the average 12 months ago.
The average is not trying to predict anything; all it is is a tracker of six polling companies with their particular in house methodologies. I am not suggesting that those six polling companies are any better than any other polling company.
What it does enable is a consistent approach to try and discover whether there has been movement from week to week in that average. By using an average of polls it should reduce statisical polling errors.
I think that we are likely to have weekly polls from More in Common, Opinium, Survation, BMG and potentially JL Partners as well as my six from now until 4 July. Other calculations of averages are quite feasible and will show different attributes.
Averaging the latest polls from the eleven companies who've polled so far in this campaign, plus Lord Ashcroft, I get:-
Labour 44.5%, Con 24.3%, Reform 11.2%, Lib Dem 9.2%.
For some reason British Conservatives lack confidence. I think part of the reason we are seeing so much exhaustion, defection and resignation now is simply down to morale, and the fact polling is so low begets more low polling and bluster as that feeds through. But "posh" Conservatives can feel that way even when on the up - I never got the sense Cameron and Osborne were entirely socially comfortable with their party label.
We used to have a poster here called @BobSykes who'd regularly turn up to publicly shit his pants in the last month before a general election, and did so for GE2015 and GE2017 - and might have even done so for GE2019, and on both occasions irritated @JohnO and myself.
He was hyperbolic, and might have been a parody, but he did neatly represent the phenomena.
Interestingly, the US Republicans don't seem to suffer from the same affliction.
For some reason British Conservatives lack confidence. I think part of the reason we are seeing so much exhaustion, defection and resignation now is simply down to morale, and the fact polling is so low begets more low polling and bluster as that feeds through. But "posh" Conservatives can feel that way even when on the up - I never got the sense Cameron and Osborne were entirely socially comfortable with their party label.
We used to have a poster here called @BobSykes who'd regularly turn up to publicly shit his pants in the last month before a general election, and did so for GE2015 and GE2017 - and might have even done so for GE2019, and on both occasions irritated @JohnO and myself.
He was hyperbolic, and might have been a parody, but he did neatly represent the phenomena.
Interestingly, the US Republicans don't seem to suffer from the same affliction.
Campaign Against Antisemitism @antisemitism Diane Abbott, who last year claimed that Jewish people cannot suffer “racism” and apparently only suffer prejudice akin to that experienced by those with red hair, is being allowed to run as a @UKLabour candidate.
Ms Abbott, who had minimised antisemitism before, was sent on a course and told to apologise. Her apology included some story about having sent a newspaper the wrong version of a letter, and her apology was reportedly later followed by another instance of antisemitism-denial.
Ms Abbott must face proper consequences for her actions and actually show that she has changed. There is scant evidence of this.
Sir Keir Starmer has transformed the Labour Party from what it once was under the days of Jeremy Corbyn, but the work is not yet complete, and this latest episode will be reminiscent to many of the politically-expedient dithering around the withdrawal of support for the Labour candidate in the Rochdale by-election a few months ago.
Just as what happened in Rochdale was a regressive step, so is this.
Just as the decision to stand by Azhar Ali in Rochdale was reversed, so must this decision be reversed.
The CAA are misreporting what she said and should STFU and stop telling Labour what to do . Abbott is not a racist or anti-Semite. Seriously I’m sick to the back teeth of the CAA and their constant pearl clutching and attempts to put pressure on Labour.
Starmer has made a lot of effort on the anti-Semitism front and really Labour is now constantly walking on egg shells and overly compensating for past issues .
And yet the CAA still never stop moaning . You know my thoughts on Starmer . I’d be much more enthusiastic with Angela in charge . I will vote to get rid of the Tories by voting Lib Dem in Eastbourne.
Just bizarre. After all these years you cant actually bring yourself to vote Labour. You do realise your one vote wont affect anything ?
Trump now claiming he's never falsified business records before. Which considering the massive civil suit he lost in NY, which involved the falsification of business records, is odd.
Is his memory going ?
Trump says this could happen to anyone. Sure, because who hasn't slept with a porn star then tried to hush it up so it doesn't damage our chance of getting elected?
Campaign Against Antisemitism @antisemitism Diane Abbott, who last year claimed that Jewish people cannot suffer “racism” and apparently only suffer prejudice akin to that experienced by those with red hair, is being allowed to run as a @UKLabour candidate.
Ms Abbott, who had minimised antisemitism before, was sent on a course and told to apologise. Her apology included some story about having sent a newspaper the wrong version of a letter, and her apology was reportedly later followed by another instance of antisemitism-denial.
Ms Abbott must face proper consequences for her actions and actually show that she has changed. There is scant evidence of this.
Sir Keir Starmer has transformed the Labour Party from what it once was under the days of Jeremy Corbyn, but the work is not yet complete, and this latest episode will be reminiscent to many of the politically-expedient dithering around the withdrawal of support for the Labour candidate in the Rochdale by-election a few months ago.
Just as what happened in Rochdale was a regressive step, so is this.
Just as the decision to stand by Azhar Ali in Rochdale was reversed, so must this decision be reversed.
The CAA are misreporting what she said and should STFU and stop telling Labour what to do . Abbott is not a racist or anti-Semite. Seriously I’m sick to the back teeth of the CAA and their constant pearl clutching and attempts to put pressure on Labour.
Starmer has made a lot of effort on the anti-Semitism front and really Labour is now constantly walking on egg shells and overly compensating for past issues .
And yet the CAA still never stop moaning . You know my thoughts on Starmer . I’d be much more enthusiastic with Angela in charge . I will vote to get rid of the Tories by voting Lib Dem in Eastbourne.
Just bizarre. After all these years you cant actually bring yourself to vote Labour. You do realise your one vote wont affect anything ?
I would vote Labour but it’s a wasted vote in Eastbourne .
Not much movement - no evidence yet that the election campaign has impacted the polling average.
C - 22.7%, L - 45.3%, LD - 9.2%, SNP - 2.7%, G - 5.5%, R - 11.8%
I am keeping my weekly average with just YouGov, Deltapoll, We Think, Savanta, Techne and Redfield & Wilton because of their track record of weekly polling. This enables a consistent approach (assuming that these companies do not change their methodology during the election campaign) on a compareable basis.
Other averages with other polling companies are available.
From this weeks thread you have 5 Nowcasters 1squeeze question Pollster and Zero reweighting companies
Hence your Poll includes 5 companies that produce the highest Lab leads and one that is in the middle whilst you include none from the companies with the lowest lead. I cant see why More in Common Polls which have been weekly in recent times are excluded?
Limits the usefulness IMO
Yor lead of 22.6 compares with actual mean of this weeks polls of circa 19.5
I understand your view point. I do not want to change the six polling companies because they are the six which have produced weekly polling for almost 2 years.
I do not include More in Common which have provided weekly polls recently because if I did, I would not be able to compare on a consistent basis with the average now and the average 12 months ago.
The average is not trying to predict anything; all it is is a tracker of six polling companies with their particular in house methodologies. I am not suggesting that those six polling companies are any better than any other polling company.
What it does enable is a consistent approach to try and discover whether there has been movement from week to week in that average. By using an average of polls it should reduce statisical polling errors.
I think that we are likely to have weekly polls from More in Common, Opinium, Survation, BMG and potentially JL Partners as well as my six from now until 4 July. Other calculations of averages are quite feasible and will show different attributes.
Thats fine mate it is still a very useful thing to do
I was wondering if a slight tweak might improve it but when you explain about the 12 month trend I understand
Keep up the good work.
UK Polling Wiki is always also available for people too if they want to see all pollsters
Trump now claiming he's never falsified business records before. Which considering the massive civil suit he lost in NY, which involved the falsification of business records, is odd.
Is his memory going ?
Trump says this could happen to anyone. Sure, because who hasn't slept with a porn star then tried to hush it up so it doesn't damage our chance of getting elected?
The normal process in American politics is to use the proceeds of the drug dealing empire that involved the mayor, DA and the entire police force to pay off the porn star.
I’ve managed to find the Facebook page of the Independent candidate for Witham. Good looking young woman, if, I suspect somewhat naive about politics. Although she has apparently sat as an Indie on the very politicised local council.
Is your Green Candidate nice looking?
Late middle-aged gentleman. Wouldn’t be my type if I had inclination that way. Which I haven’t.
Oh no please tell me you are a policy man rather than a (insert favourite part of anatomy here) man
And he seemed to be having a lovely day out. I don't think Rishi or Keir would have managed that.
And he's having another lovely day today, whilst talking about his free school meals policy:
Sir Ed looks like the only one of the main party leaders who’s actually enjoying the campaign. I’ve not seen the photo of him on a slide but I’ll assume it’s not Mannionesque but in the same vein as the paddle boarding, the cycling and this school baking photo. Good. This election desperately needs some levity because it’s been duller than one any of Sean’s dribbling travelogues so far.
He's having fun because he KNOWS there's no way he'll end up PM on July 5th!
Trump now claiming he's never falsified business records before. Which considering the massive civil suit he lost in NY, which involved the falsification of business records, is odd.
Is his memory going ?
Trump says this could happen to anyone. Sure, because who hasn't slept with a porn star then tried to hush it up so it doesn't damage our chance of getting elected?
Campaign Against Antisemitism @antisemitism Diane Abbott, who last year claimed that Jewish people cannot suffer “racism” and apparently only suffer prejudice akin to that experienced by those with red hair, is being allowed to run as a @UKLabour candidate.
Ms Abbott, who had minimised antisemitism before, was sent on a course and told to apologise. Her apology included some story about having sent a newspaper the wrong version of a letter, and her apology was reportedly later followed by another instance of antisemitism-denial.
Ms Abbott must face proper consequences for her actions and actually show that she has changed. There is scant evidence of this.
Sir Keir Starmer has transformed the Labour Party from what it once was under the days of Jeremy Corbyn, but the work is not yet complete, and this latest episode will be reminiscent to many of the politically-expedient dithering around the withdrawal of support for the Labour candidate in the Rochdale by-election a few months ago.
Just as what happened in Rochdale was a regressive step, so is this.
Just as the decision to stand by Azhar Ali in Rochdale was reversed, so must this decision be reversed.
The CAA are misreporting what she said and should STFU and stop telling Labour what to do . Abbott is not a racist or anti-Semite. Seriously I’m sick to the back teeth of the CAA and their constant pearl clutching and attempts to put pressure on Labour.
Starmer has made a lot of effort on the anti-Semitism front and really Labour is now constantly walking on egg shells and overly compensating for past issues .
And yet the CAA still never stop moaning . You know my thoughts on Starmer . I’d be much more enthusiastic with Angela in charge . I will vote to get rid of the Tories by voting Lib Dem in Eastbourne.
Just bizarre. After all these years you cant actually bring yourself to vote Labour. You do realise your one vote wont affect anything ?
I would vote Labour but it’s a wasted vote in Eastbourne .
Trump now claiming he's never falsified business records before. Which considering the massive civil suit he lost in NY, which involved the falsification of business records, is odd.
Is his memory going ?
Trump says this could happen to anyone. Sure, because who hasn't slept with a porn star then tried to hush it up so it doesn't damage our chance of getting elected?
The normal process in American politics is to use the proceeds of the drug dealing empire that involved the mayor, DA and the entire police force to pay off the porn star.
Source - lots of bad movies on Netflix.
There was an episode of "Murder She Wrote" back in 1980s about a prosecutor based in New York City, who bore a STRONG resemblance to Rudy Giuliani then- US District Attorney for NY Southern District (NYC).
Who as I recall distinguished himself by trying to derail investigation by "Jessica Tate" (Angela Lansbury), railroad an innocent man AND in the process obtain even MORE publicity for himself which was his Prime Directive.
I’d like to pay tribute to Lloyd Russell-Moyle who has been our MP since 2017 and who I am proud to call my friend. Following his suspension, I was asked by some local members to stand in Brighton Kemptown. They felt that as someone who had previously been selected by members; had been a local Councillor here for five years; had good local name recognition and had halved the Tory majority in 2015, that I was best placed to win the seat. I spoke to Lloyd and put myself forward to be Brighton Kemptown’s candidate with his support. Everything moved very quickly yesterday and I was pleased to be offered an online interview at 2.40pm. It was disappointing afterwards to find out that during my interview, Michael Crick had Tweeted out that Chris Ward would be the successful candidate. I have forwarded the Tweet to the General Secretary of the Labour Party and I trust that there will now be an investigation to ensure the fairness of the process. It’s important to remember that these decisions affect a wider group of people. Had I been selected I would have kept on all of Lloyd’s team who now face losing their jobs and their livelihoods. I’d like to thank all the local members and the local, regional and national trade unions that took the time to have conversations yesterday and who offered me their support.
Not much movement - no evidence yet that the election campaign has impacted the polling average.
C - 22.7%, L - 45.3%, LD - 9.2%, SNP - 2.7%, G - 5.5%, R - 11.8%
I am keeping my weekly average with just YouGov, Deltapoll, We Think, Savanta, Techne and Redfield & Wilton because of their track record of weekly polling. This enables a consistent approach (assuming that these companies do not change their methodology during the election campaign) on a compareable basis.
Other averages with other polling companies are available.
From this weeks thread you have 5 Nowcasters 1squeeze question Pollster and Zero reweighting companies
Hence your Poll includes 5 companies that produce the highest Lab leads and one that is in the middle whilst you include none from the companies with the lowest lead. I cant see why More in Common Polls which have been weekly in recent times are excluded?
Limits the usefulness IMO
Yor lead of 22.6 compares with actual mean of this weeks polls of circa 19.5
I understand your view point. I do not want to change the six polling companies because they are the six which have produced weekly polling for almost 2 years.
I do not include More in Common which have provided weekly polls recently because if I did, I would not be able to compare on a consistent basis with the average now and the average 12 months ago.
The average is not trying to predict anything; all it is is a tracker of six polling companies with their particular in house methodologies. I am not suggesting that those six polling companies are any better than any other polling company.
What it does enable is a consistent approach to try and discover whether there has been movement from week to week in that average. By using an average of polls it should reduce statisical polling errors.
I think that we are likely to have weekly polls from More in Common, Opinium, Survation, BMG and potentially JL Partners as well as my six from now until 4 July. Other calculations of averages are quite feasible and will show different attributes.
Averaging the latest polls from the eleven companies who've polled so far in this campaign, plus Lord Ashcroft, I get:-
Labour 44.5%, Con 24.3%, Reform 11.2%, Lib Dem 9.2%.
LDs 2-3% too low, expense of Labour, and Reform 3-4% too high, to bandit of Con.
Amusing (one word for it anyway) how PB's usual shit-stirrers are positively wallowing in their preferred Putinist pig-shit after the Trump guilty-as-sin verdict.
Keep up your bad work on behalf of the destruction of democracy, as it's all your good for.
One of the main tenets of Putinist 'managed democracy' is that undesirable candidates who might stand a chance of winning must be prevented from running. Only controlled opposition is permitted.
The attempts to sideline Trump by non-democratic means are American Putinism.
Campaign Against Antisemitism @antisemitism Diane Abbott, who last year claimed that Jewish people cannot suffer “racism” and apparently only suffer prejudice akin to that experienced by those with red hair, is being allowed to run as a @UKLabour candidate.
Ms Abbott, who had minimised antisemitism before, was sent on a course and told to apologise. Her apology included some story about having sent a newspaper the wrong version of a letter, and her apology was reportedly later followed by another instance of antisemitism-denial.
Ms Abbott must face proper consequences for her actions and actually show that she has changed. There is scant evidence of this.
Sir Keir Starmer has transformed the Labour Party from what it once was under the days of Jeremy Corbyn, but the work is not yet complete, and this latest episode will be reminiscent to many of the politically-expedient dithering around the withdrawal of support for the Labour candidate in the Rochdale by-election a few months ago.
Just as what happened in Rochdale was a regressive step, so is this.
Just as the decision to stand by Azhar Ali in Rochdale was reversed, so must this decision be reversed.
The CAA are misreporting what she said and should STFU and stop telling Labour what to do . Abbott is not a racist or anti-Semite. Seriously I’m sick to the back teeth of the CAA and their constant pearl clutching and attempts to put pressure on Labour.
Starmer has made a lot of effort on the anti-Semitism front and really Labour is now constantly walking on egg shells and overly compensating for past issues .
And yet the CAA still never stop moaning . You know my thoughts on Starmer . I’d be much more enthusiastic with Angela in charge . I will vote to get rid of the Tories by voting Lib Dem in Eastbourne.
Just bizarre. After all these years you cant actually bring yourself to vote Labour. You do realise your one vote wont affect anything ?
I would vote Labour but it’s a wasted vote in Eastbourne .
In a Tory-Lib Dem marginal like Eastbourne, one vote could make all the diference.
And if your overall preferred result is for the Tory Party to lose power, that one vote in that one seat could make all the difference.
Not much movement - no evidence yet that the election campaign has impacted the polling average.
C - 22.7%, L - 45.3%, LD - 9.2%, SNP - 2.7%, G - 5.5%, R - 11.8%
I am keeping my weekly average with just YouGov, Deltapoll, We Think, Savanta, Techne and Redfield & Wilton because of their track record of weekly polling. This enables a consistent approach (assuming that these companies do not change their methodology during the election campaign) on a compareable basis.
Other averages with other polling companies are available.
From this weeks thread you have 5 Nowcasters 1squeeze question Pollster and Zero reweighting companies
Hence your Poll includes 5 companies that produce the highest Lab leads and one that is in the middle whilst you include none from the companies with the lowest lead. I cant see why More in Common Polls which have been weekly in recent times are excluded?
Limits the usefulness IMO
Yor lead of 22.6 compares with actual mean of this weeks polls of circa 19.5
I understand your view point. I do not want to change the six polling companies because they are the six which have produced weekly polling for almost 2 years.
I do not include More in Common which have provided weekly polls recently because if I did, I would not be able to compare on a consistent basis with the average now and the average 12 months ago.
The average is not trying to predict anything; all it is is a tracker of six polling companies with their particular in house methodologies. I am not suggesting that those six polling companies are any better than any other polling company.
What it does enable is a consistent approach to try and discover whether there has been movement from week to week in that average. By using an average of polls it should reduce statisical polling errors.
I think that we are likely to have weekly polls from More in Common, Opinium, Survation, BMG and potentially JL Partners as well as my six from now until 4 July. Other calculations of averages are quite feasible and will show different attributes.
Averaging the latest polls from the eleven companies who've polled so far in this campaign, plus Lord Ashcroft, I get:-
Labour 44.5%, Con 24.3%, Reform 11.2%, Lib Dem 9.2%.
LDs 2-3% too low, expense of Labour, and Reform 3-4% too high, to bandit of Con.
Other than that, about accurate.
Just for fun, Baxtered. CON 28.3% (157 seats) LAB 41.5% (413 seats) LDM 12.2% (44 seats) RFM 7.2% (0) GRN (implied) 5.2% (2)
The big three parties within 8, 5 and 2 seats of their 1997 totals. Would be uncanny.
Not much movement - no evidence yet that the election campaign has impacted the polling average.
C - 22.7%, L - 45.3%, LD - 9.2%, SNP - 2.7%, G - 5.5%, R - 11.8%
I am keeping my weekly average with just YouGov, Deltapoll, We Think, Savanta, Techne and Redfield & Wilton because of their track record of weekly polling. This enables a consistent approach (assuming that these companies do not change their methodology during the election campaign) on a compareable basis.
Other averages with other polling companies are available.
From this weeks thread you have 5 Nowcasters 1squeeze question Pollster and Zero reweighting companies
Hence your Poll includes 5 companies that produce the highest Lab leads and one that is in the middle whilst you include none from the companies with the lowest lead. I cant see why More in Common Polls which have been weekly in recent times are excluded?
Limits the usefulness IMO
Yor lead of 22.6 compares with actual mean of this weeks polls of circa 19.5
I understand your view point. I do not want to change the six polling companies because they are the six which have produced weekly polling for almost 2 years.
I do not include More in Common which have provided weekly polls recently because if I did, I would not be able to compare on a consistent basis with the average now and the average 12 months ago.
The average is not trying to predict anything; all it is is a tracker of six polling companies with their particular in house methodologies. I am not suggesting that those six polling companies are any better than any other polling company.
What it does enable is a consistent approach to try and discover whether there has been movement from week to week in that average. By using an average of polls it should reduce statisical polling errors.
I think that we are likely to have weekly polls from More in Common, Opinium, Survation, BMG and potentially JL Partners as well as my six from now until 4 July. Other calculations of averages are quite feasible and will show different attributes.
Averaging the latest polls from the eleven companies who've polled so far in this campaign, plus Lord Ashcroft, I get:-
Labour 44.5%, Con 24.3%, Reform 11.2%, Lib Dem 9.2%.
LDs 2-3% too low, expense of Labour, and Reform 3-4% too high, to bandit of Con.
Other than that, about accurate.
Just for fun, Baxtered. CON 28.3% (157 seats) LAB 41.5% (413 seats) LDM 12.2% (44 seats) RFM 7.2% (0) GRN (implied) 5.2% (2)
The big three parties within 8, 5 and 2 seats of their 1997 totals. Would be uncanny.
And if you assume come incumbency and other local factors…. on the nose would be hilarious.
Not much movement - no evidence yet that the election campaign has impacted the polling average.
C - 22.7%, L - 45.3%, LD - 9.2%, SNP - 2.7%, G - 5.5%, R - 11.8%
I am keeping my weekly average with just YouGov, Deltapoll, We Think, Savanta, Techne and Redfield & Wilton because of their track record of weekly polling. This enables a consistent approach (assuming that these companies do not change their methodology during the election campaign) on a compareable basis.
Other averages with other polling companies are available.
From this weeks thread you have 5 Nowcasters 1squeeze question Pollster and Zero reweighting companies
Hence your Poll includes 5 companies that produce the highest Lab leads and one that is in the middle whilst you include none from the companies with the lowest lead. I cant see why More in Common Polls which have been weekly in recent times are excluded?
Limits the usefulness IMO
Yor lead of 22.6 compares with actual mean of this weeks polls of circa 19.5
I understand your view point. I do not want to change the six polling companies because they are the six which have produced weekly polling for almost 2 years.
I do not include More in Common which have provided weekly polls recently because if I did, I would not be able to compare on a consistent basis with the average now and the average 12 months ago.
The average is not trying to predict anything; all it is is a tracker of six polling companies with their particular in house methodologies. I am not suggesting that those six polling companies are any better than any other polling company.
What it does enable is a consistent approach to try and discover whether there has been movement from week to week in that average. By using an average of polls it should reduce statisical polling errors.
I think that we are likely to have weekly polls from More in Common, Opinium, Survation, BMG and potentially JL Partners as well as my six from now until 4 July. Other calculations of averages are quite feasible and will show different attributes.
Averaging the latest polls from the eleven companies who've polled so far in this campaign, plus Lord Ashcroft, I get:-
Labour 44.5%, Con 24.3%, Reform 11.2%, Lib Dem 9.2%.
LDs 2-3% too low, expense of Labour, and Reform 3-4% too high, to bandit of Con.
Other than that, about accurate.
Just for fun, Baxtered. CON 28.3% (157 seats) LAB 41.5% (413 seats) LDM 12.2% (44 seats) RFM 7.2% (0) GRN (implied) 5.2% (2)
The big three parties within 8, 5 and 2 seats of their 1997 totals. Would be uncanny.
And if you assume come incumbency and other local factors…. on the nose would be hilarious.
There are nine fewer seats to go round than in 1997, so you'd need an SNP wipeout to get an exact match. I'm sure that it would be a comfort for some Tories if they held more Scottish seats than the SNP.
Not much movement - no evidence yet that the election campaign has impacted the polling average.
C - 22.7%, L - 45.3%, LD - 9.2%, SNP - 2.7%, G - 5.5%, R - 11.8%
I am keeping my weekly average with just YouGov, Deltapoll, We Think, Savanta, Techne and Redfield & Wilton because of their track record of weekly polling. This enables a consistent approach (assuming that these companies do not change their methodology during the election campaign) on a compareable basis.
Other averages with other polling companies are available.
From this weeks thread you have 5 Nowcasters 1squeeze question Pollster and Zero reweighting companies
Hence your Poll includes 5 companies that produce the highest Lab leads and one that is in the middle whilst you include none from the companies with the lowest lead. I cant see why More in Common Polls which have been weekly in recent times are excluded?
Limits the usefulness IMO
Yor lead of 22.6 compares with actual mean of this weeks polls of circa 19.5
I understand your view point. I do not want to change the six polling companies because they are the six which have produced weekly polling for almost 2 years.
I do not include More in Common which have provided weekly polls recently because if I did, I would not be able to compare on a consistent basis with the average now and the average 12 months ago.
The average is not trying to predict anything; all it is is a tracker of six polling companies with their particular in house methodologies. I am not suggesting that those six polling companies are any better than any other polling company.
What it does enable is a consistent approach to try and discover whether there has been movement from week to week in that average. By using an average of polls it should reduce statisical polling errors.
I think that we are likely to have weekly polls from More in Common, Opinium, Survation, BMG and potentially JL Partners as well as my six from now until 4 July. Other calculations of averages are quite feasible and will show different attributes.
Averaging the latest polls from the eleven companies who've polled so far in this campaign, plus Lord Ashcroft, I get:-
Labour 44.5%, Con 24.3%, Reform 11.2%, Lib Dem 9.2%.
LDs 2-3% too low, expense of Labour, and Reform 3-4% too high, to bandit of Con.
Other than that, about accurate.
That feels about right to me. And yes the seat projection that has been posted probably about right too. Maybe 10-20 extra to Con.
Not much movement - no evidence yet that the election campaign has impacted the polling average.
C - 22.7%, L - 45.3%, LD - 9.2%, SNP - 2.7%, G - 5.5%, R - 11.8%
I am keeping my weekly average with just YouGov, Deltapoll, We Think, Savanta, Techne and Redfield & Wilton because of their track record of weekly polling. This enables a consistent approach (assuming that these companies do not change their methodology during the election campaign) on a compareable basis.
Other averages with other polling companies are available.
From this weeks thread you have 5 Nowcasters 1squeeze question Pollster and Zero reweighting companies
Hence your Poll includes 5 companies that produce the highest Lab leads and one that is in the middle whilst you include none from the companies with the lowest lead. I cant see why More in Common Polls which have been weekly in recent times are excluded?
Limits the usefulness IMO
Yor lead of 22.6 compares with actual mean of this weeks polls of circa 19.5
I understand your view point. I do not want to change the six polling companies because they are the six which have produced weekly polling for almost 2 years.
I do not include More in Common which have provided weekly polls recently because if I did, I would not be able to compare on a consistent basis with the average now and the average 12 months ago.
The average is not trying to predict anything; all it is is a tracker of six polling companies with their particular in house methodologies. I am not suggesting that those six polling companies are any better than any other polling company.
What it does enable is a consistent approach to try and discover whether there has been movement from week to week in that average. By using an average of polls it should reduce statisical polling errors.
I think that we are likely to have weekly polls from More in Common, Opinium, Survation, BMG and potentially JL Partners as well as my six from now until 4 July. Other calculations of averages are quite feasible and will show different attributes.
Averaging the latest polls from the eleven companies who've polled so far in this campaign, plus Lord Ashcroft, I get:-
Labour 44.5%, Con 24.3%, Reform 11.2%, Lib Dem 9.2%.
LDs 2-3% too low, expense of Labour, and Reform 3-4% too high, to bandit of Con.
Other than that, about accurate.
Just for fun, Baxtered. CON 28.3% (157 seats) LAB 41.5% (413 seats) LDM 12.2% (44 seats) RFM 7.2% (0) GRN (implied) 5.2% (2)
The big three parties within 8, 5 and 2 seats of their 1997 totals. Would be uncanny.
And if you assume come incumbency and other local factors…. on the nose would be hilarious.
Has anyone asked Starmer about PR recently? I bet he’s gone cold on the idea.
Starmer opposes PR and is a supporter of FPP. That’s the the case for much of the PLP. The idea that Labour would remove a system that favours them is for the birds.
Comments
https://www.theguardian.com/science/article/2024/may/31/men-and-other-mammals-live-longer-if-they-are-castrated-says-researcher
"Have you spoken to Diane... ?"
Keir Starmer: "She's free to go forward as a Labour candidate. The whip is back with her. Its been restored."
Oozing warmth and sincerity.
I wont believe it till she is on the ballot but if he is lying by omission thats a really bad look.
Also not a story you read about Russia very often.
We didn't do that at school when he was that age.
(Assuming 8 y/o or more. I'm not good with ages of women and children.)
Labour messed up and Starmer should have just cleared the matter up earlier.
I don’t think Abbott is a racist or anti-Semitic and not allowing her to stand would have kept the drama going into next week .
Her comments were ill judged given the current climate but really what I took from them was the bleeding obvious . You can’t hide your skin colour so the racism you suffer is ongoing .
I look forward to SKS fans squirming reverse ferret on the subject!
I advise caution as there is room for a further SKS U Turn before Tuesday so hang your fire.
They are becoming increasingly as "unhinged" as the Sage of Mar-a-Lardo,
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/08/russian-anti-war-candidate-boris-nadezhdin-says-he-is-barred-from-election
An anti-war candidate who gathered unexpected momentum has been banned by Russia’s electoral authority from running against Vladimir Putin in the carefully managed presidential elections in March.
The central election commission said it had found “irregularities” in over 9,000 of more than 100,000 signatures of support submitted by Boris Nadezhdin. That figure was three times higher than the allowable 5% error rate and provided grounds for the commission to disqualify him.
https://x.com/DougJBalloon/status/1796441251228930342
Although she has apparently sat as an Indie on the very politicised local council.
Campaign Against Antisemitism
@antisemitism
Diane Abbott, who last year claimed that Jewish people cannot suffer “racism” and apparently only suffer prejudice akin to that experienced by those with red hair, is being allowed to run as a
@UKLabour
candidate.
Ms Abbott, who had minimised antisemitism before, was sent on a course and told to apologise. Her apology included some story about having sent a newspaper the wrong version of a letter, and her apology was reportedly later followed by another instance of antisemitism-denial.
Ms Abbott must face proper consequences for her actions and actually show that she has changed. There is scant evidence of this.
Sir Keir Starmer has transformed the Labour Party from what it once was under the days of Jeremy Corbyn, but the work is not yet complete, and this latest episode will be reminiscent to many of the politically-expedient dithering around the withdrawal of support for the Labour candidate in the Rochdale by-election a few months ago.
Just as what happened in Rochdale was a regressive step, so is this.
Just as the decision to stand by Azhar Ali in Rochdale was reversed, so must this decision be reversed.
One person is saying things that are ‘simply not true’ here - but the things in question are about the reasons for Trump’s problems…
'Buckfast Tonic Wine (No Vintage)
Screw cap, took it off about 30 minutes before to bring in some air. Apparently made by monks in England. Decided to try while cooking dinner. Poured into a glass, first glance has a very inky almost brownish color that you see in older wines. Very syrupy, liquid clings to the side of the glass when swirled. Almost 15% ABV.
Stuck my nose in and was hit with something I’ve never experienced before. Barnyardy funk (in a bad way) almost like a dead animal in a bird’s nest. A mix of flat Coca Cola and caramel with a whiff of gun metal.
On the palate, overwhelming sweetness and sugar. Cherry Cola mixed with Benadryl. Unlike anything I’ve tasted. I’m not sure what this liquid is but it is not wine, I’m actually not sure what it is but it tastes like something a doctor would prescribe. A chemical concoction of the highest degree. Can only compare it to a Four Loko.
Managed to make it through a couple small glasses but not much more. Has absolutely ruined the evening drinking-wise for me as I tried to drink a nice Bordeaux after but the iron-like metallic sweet aftertaste I just couldn’t get out of my mouth even after a few glasses of water. I don’t drink a lot of coffee regularly so I also have mild heart palpitations from the caffeine after just drinking a bit of this and feel a slight migraine.
An ungodly concoction made by seemingly godly men. I believe the Vatican needs to send an exorcist over to Buckfast Abbey as the devil’s works are cleary present there. After tasting this “wine,” the way I feel can only be described as akin to being under a bridge on one’s knees orally pleasing a vagrant while simultaneously drinking liquified meth through a dirty rag.
I’ve drank a lot of wines in my life and will never forget this one.'
"The judge was a tyrant he was crazed"
Surely a Wulfrunian should know better?
https://x.com/ASFleischman/status/1796520045646123094
People keep saying these charges never would have been brought against anyone else.
That's dumb.
If you become a national news story over something that is arguably criminal, there is a very good chance you will be charged. No matter who you are...
..Do people who buy guns despite having used drugs in the past routinely get charged?
Fuck no. It's super rare.
BUT IF YOU WRITE A MEMOIR ABOUT YOUR DRUG USE that a bunch of people read, yes, you can catch a charge...
Which considering the massive civil suit he lost in NY, which involved the falsification of business records, is odd.
Is his memory going ?
Starmer has made a lot of effort on the anti-Semitism front and really Labour is now constantly walking on egg shells and overly compensating for past issues .
He could have got all he had to say in within 40 seconds
"Nationally the MK party has 12% of the vote and is currently third overall"
What you are saying is that Trump is a victim of his own stupidity in brazenly breaking the law and making it a national issue, leading to his conviction, which is true but also rather different.
I do not include More in Common which have provided weekly polls recently because if I did, I would not be able to compare on a consistent basis with the average now and the average 12 months ago.
The average is not trying to predict anything; all it is is a tracker of six polling companies with their particular in house methodologies. I am not suggesting that those six polling companies are any better than any other polling company.
What it does enable is a consistent approach to try and discover whether there has been movement from week to week in that average. By using an average of polls it should reduce statisical polling errors.
I think that we are likely to have weekly polls from More in Common, Opinium, Survation, BMG and potentially JL Partners as well as my six from now until 4 July. Other calculations of averages are quite feasible and will show different attributes.
https://x.com/onlyme098765/status/1796312611455443396
https://x.com/conservatives/status/1796546759055036550
Could that be a comment on PM Sunak?
(I keep hoping he will promise a future in which there is a helicopter in every UK garage.)
This feels like an election campaign where it's still a mid-terms feel.
More like "Hands [over] Face. Displace"
So people are basically saying it's more likely Biden dies in the next 2 months than SKS falls just slightly short in the next 5 weeks.
Labour 44.5%, Con 24.3%, Reform 11.2%, Lib Dem 9.2%.
NEW THREAD
We used to have a poster here called @BobSykes who'd regularly turn up to publicly shit his pants in the last month before a general election, and did so for GE2015 and GE2017 - and might have even done so for GE2019, and on both occasions irritated @JohnO and myself.
He was hyperbolic, and might have been a parody, but he did neatly represent the phenomena.
Interestingly, the US Republicans don't seem to suffer from the same affliction.
I was hoping to keep it quiet.
I was wondering if a slight tweak might improve it but when you explain about the 12 month trend I understand
Keep up the good work.
UK Polling Wiki is always also available for people too if they want to see all pollsters
Source - lots of bad movies on Netflix.
So Angela Rayner hiring the Conservative Party to do her PR would be some 6D chess shit.
Any friend of mine that is. Obviously.
Who as I recall distinguished himself by trying to derail investigation by "Jessica Tate" (Angela Lansbury), railroad an innocent man AND in the process obtain even MORE publicity for himself which was his Prime Directive.
Art imitating life.
Other than that, about accurate.
And if your overall preferred result is for the Tory Party to lose power, that one vote in that one seat could make all the difference.
CON 28.3% (157 seats)
LAB 41.5% (413 seats)
LDM 12.2% (44 seats)
RFM 7.2% (0)
GRN (implied) 5.2% (2)
The big three parties within 8, 5 and 2 seats of their 1997 totals. Would be uncanny.