The national service policy is pretty mental given the documented struggles the Conservatives have with voters under 45.
I also think the framing of it is pretty daft. Allowing the term National Service anywhere near it is suicidally insane. You could have framed it as a Royal Commission to explore the setting up of a structured gap year programme, whether it should be optional or mandatory etc. You can then pretend it’s a year on Ibiza to the youth vote and nod and wink your true intentions to the old and crotchety. It might not work but the approach would be smarter politically.
The only thing I can think is that Rishi knows he’s going to lose so is going to put as many right wing hobby horses in the manifesto to discredit them, hope they retain a credible number of seats and force the Tories towards sanity as they rebuild. Risky.
Rishi Sunak as Robert Graves's Claudius?
"Let all the poisons that lurk in the mud hatch out"
R Sunak’s first policy announcement- the return of national service- shows he has no sense of the state of the country he seeks to rule…and no political imagination to compensate for his blindness.
@sundersays It is not a serious plan so the details are all tbc in a royal commission. It is a pitch to a particular electoral segment, who like this headline, from a governing party hoping to mitigate the scale of defeat.
@rafaelbehr Royal commission is the tell that this was cooked up by hacks. It's such a leader writer's device for making a vague unworkable notion sound like a call to action.
This is why I think buying Tory seats is such a risky proposition.
If they carry on like this, it is difficult to see where the floor is, particularly in view of the number of narrow Tory victories in the current projections.
Agreed.
I was nervous, based partly on re-reading the histories of 1992, 2017, and 2019.
But they are calming my fears.
And reaction from moderate Conservatives is reassuring in the long-term. The country needs a sensible centre-right Party. They will come back to governance some day.
@edwinhayward This story is so delicious, it's unbelievable. It spanks the Tories so, so hard, albeit inadvertently.
But it will take a little explaining, so please have patience and bear with me while I walk you through it.
The Telegraph tonight is running a big splash about the first Tory pledge of the GE campaign, namely bringing back compulsory national service.
Yes, they want to force all 18-year olds to spend a year in the Army, or devote a weekend a month for a year doing community service chores.
(Related aside: they plan to get £1.5 billion of the £2.5 billion a year cost of the programme by gutting the post-Brexit shared prosperity fund, which was meant to replace the loss of EU structural funding. The diametric opposite of levelling up.)
Now here's where things get FUN!
The Telegraph embeds links within their articles to other "related" Telegraph stories to direct more traffic around their website. (I believe these links are likely inserted automatically, for SEO purposes.)
So they have this big piece about national service by Camilla Turner, their Sunday Political Editor.
And in it they've linked prominently to the older article that I've screenshot below...
Yes. They really have chosen as a representative related story an opinion piece that spells out in no uncertain terms what an utterly idiotic idea bringing back national service would be. ("Yet once again the reintroduction of National Service is being mooted by think tanks, this time as a thinly veiled mechanism for enslaving the young.")
It's like a boat-builder deliberately drilling a large hole in their new craft below the waterline, and then launching it. Sunk before it had a chance.
But the fun doesn't stop there. There's a second sneaky link lurking in tonight's article too. That one leads to an older piece entitled "Why conscription would leave Britain fighting a losing battle". This second article digs into the economics and jobs aspects of a programme such as national service, and concludes that it's a non-starter.
And if the Telegraph weren't so greedy for clicks, we'd never even have seen the articles that blow holes straight through the grand Tory plan!
That makes no sense at all. The Telegraph piece is a news report, not a leader or opinion piece in favour of the policy. Does he think the paper should airbrush history when reporting the news?
Do the military want Sunaks proposal ? The practicalities around the weekend community service . What happens to 18 year olds at university who might be working to supplement their studies .
What if you actually are in full time work but work at weekends . Will the government pay for your lossed income ?
And how much will the policy cost tax payers when finances are so tight ?
This Government doesn't do details. But, at a guess, I would imagine that the victims would be expected to attend whether they had actual jobs to hold down or not, they wouldn't get compensated for the lost income, and that some financial mechanism would be created to punish them for not turning up - fines, or deduction of a surcharge directly through PAYE as per the mechanism for student loan repayment. Essentially it's a system of state-mandated forced labour.
Grouping refusers with social security claimants as scroungers who deserve a good beating is, after all, sound politics for the Tories (and any of their rivals competing for the votes of the reactionary elderly and other pitiless social conservatives.)
As ever, start with defining the problem, then look for solutions. Finally, pick the 'best' solution.
What 'problem' is mandatory national service meant to solve? I can't think of a convincing one, and if there is one, can it be 'solved' by other means?
You define the problem space; spend some time drilling that problem in the public's mind, then come up with the solution. You don't give a solution without preparation - as May found out in 2017 (and that actually was a problem that needed solving.)
I suspect that Casino is right, that the problem this announcement is intended to solve is 'some voters are wavering between Conservative and Reform' and this announcement may pull them towards Team Rishi. But that's all it solves, and with flip knows what knock-on effects.
It certainly doesn't solve the public service problems- twelve weekends "volunteering" or one year military training isn't enough to make a teenager a net gain to their not-employer.
There are some real benefits to things like NCS- mix young people up, get different groups working together, develop soft skills, maybe even get some nice things done. But, as someone working with the target market, it's never gone mainstream.
And its funding has been cut massively in recent years.
The national service policy is pretty mental given the documented struggles the Conservatives have with voters under 45.
I also think the framing of it is pretty daft. Allowing the term National Service anywhere near it is suicidally insane. You could have framed it as a Royal Commission to explore the setting up of a structured gap year programme, whether it should be optional or mandatory etc. You can then pretend it’s a year on Ibiza to the youth vote and nod and wink your true intentions to the old and crotchety. It might not work but the approach would be smarter politically.
The only thing I can think is that Rishi knows he’s going to lose so is going to put as many right wing hobby horses in the manifesto to discredit them, hope they retain a credible number of seats and force the Tories towards sanity as they rebuild. Risky.
This policy is struggling with the over 45s. Wall to wall ridicule in mail and Telegraph comments
Oh god - I feel like I’m going to step into the firing line here, but I don’t think the idea is necessarily that.., bad?
Dont get me wrong, it won’t make me vote Tory. Do I think the idea is worthwhile? Potentially. Do I think it’s a bit performative? Possibly. But do I think giving young people access to practical service/volunteering opportunities is a bad idea! Not really.
I remain at your disposal to castigate at will.
Young people already have “access to practical service/volunteering opportunities”.
By the way, community service is inbuilt into the IB. It could also be part of A levels and ‘Citizenship’ qualifications were briefly all the rage. Community involvement can be part of the school curriculum with some creativity and less adherence to chalk-and-talk teaching of the type advocated (ironically) by Michael Gove and Rishi Sunak.
The national service policy is pretty mental given the documented struggles the Conservatives have with voters under 45.
I also think the framing of it is pretty daft. Allowing the term National Service anywhere near it is suicidally insane. You could have framed it as a Royal Commission to explore the setting up of a structured gap year programme, whether it should be optional or mandatory etc. You can then pretend it’s a year on Ibiza to the youth vote and nod and wink your true intentions to the old and crotchety. It might not work but the approach would be smarter politically.
The only thing I can think is that Rishi knows he’s going to lose so is going to put as many right wing hobby horses in the manifesto to discredit them, hope they retain a credible number of seats and force the Tories towards sanity as they rebuild. Risky.
This policy is struggling with the over 45s. Wall to wall ridicule in mail and Telegraph comments
Fortysomethings and fiftysomethings have teenaged children.
So, how long before Dishy Rishi starts flying flags about re-introducing capital punishment?
I think it's going to kick off about not prosecuting paedophiles/releasing them early from jail. Rishi then says OK let's do some blue sky thinking about reducing the prison population.
I see Rishi has really got under the skin of his opponents with his National Service policy.
Perhaps they doth protest too much.
It's not just his opponents though, this time.
I have a plan! And here's the back of a fag packet that I wrote it on.
For all sorts of reasons encouraging civic duty is to be lauded. We are possibly on the cusp of WW3 so mobilising a reservist army might make sense.
But this is just knee jerk backs against the wall stuff. Rishi " what can we do next?" Dowden "reintroduce conscription!". Jenrick "strafe the boats". Braverman "execute socialist traitors, and anyone else I don't like". It's all just performative nonsense.
Morning all, a boringly as you were Deltapoll to wake us up Labour lead by twenty-two points in our poll for the Mail on Sunday. Con 23% (-) Lab 45% (-) Lib Dem 9% (-1) Reform 10% (-2) SNP 3% (-) Green 6% (+1) Other 3% (-) Fieldwork: 23rd-25th May 2024 Sample: 1,517 GB adults (Changes from 17th-20th May 2024)
The national service policy is pretty mental given the documented struggles the Conservatives have with voters under 45.
I also think the framing of it is pretty daft. Allowing the term National Service anywhere near it is suicidally insane. You could have framed it as a Royal Commission to explore the setting up of a structured gap year programme, whether it should be optional or mandatory etc. You can then pretend it’s a year on Ibiza to the youth vote and nod and wink your true intentions to the old and crotchety. It might not work but the approach would be smarter politically.
The only thing I can think is that Rishi knows he’s going to lose so is going to put as many right wing hobby horses in the manifesto to discredit them, hope they retain a credible number of seats and force the Tories towards sanity as they rebuild. Risky.
This policy is struggling with the over 45s. Wall to wall ridicule in mail and Telegraph comments
Fortysomethings and fiftysomethings have teenaged children.
We do. Thank you for making the important point. The idea of my 18 year old going into compulsory National Service is just beyond hideous.
This is why I think buying Tory seats is such a risky proposition.
If they carry on like this, it is difficult to see where the floor is, particularly in view of the number of narrow Tory victories in the current projections.
Agreed.
I was nervous, based partly on re-reading the histories of 1992, 2017, and 2019.
But they are calming my fears.
And reaction from moderate Conservatives is reassuring in the long-term. The country needs a sensible centre-right Party. They will come back to governance some day.
There is no guarantee that anything resembling the moderate right will emerge from this episode. The Conservative Party can become almost as extreme as it likes, and brand recognition combined with the electoral system will at least preserve it as the main opposition.
Indeed, I'd go as far as to say that the centre-right in British politics has already undergone Pasokification - courtesy of the complete destruction of the orange book liberals, followed swiftly by the filleting of the one nation wing of the Tory party during the Brexit process and the ascent of Boris Johnson. There is no reason at all to suppose that the very extreme and elderly Tory membership will miraculously embrace moderation after a chastening defeat - they're more likely to seek a unite the right merger with RefUK, with policies and a leadership chosen to facilitate this - and there is effectively zero chance of the Conservatives being replaced by a challenger party.
Morning all, a boringly as you were Deltapoll to wake us up Labour lead by twenty-two points in our poll for the Mail on Sunday. Con 23% (-) Lab 45% (-) Lib Dem 9% (-1) Reform 10% (-2) SNP 3% (-) Green 6% (+1) Other 3% (-) Fieldwork: 23rd-25th May 2024 Sample: 1,517 GB adults (Changes from 17th-20th May 2024)
The swingback starts … oh.
No, joking aside, we need to see a batch of polls over at least a week. And I’m very suspicious of bank holiday polling too, something I’ve said on here from the get-go.
Let’s see if there are any signs of movement a week or so from now.
I mean, all of this needs supervision. And training.
And neither supervision nor training is something our Government will be prepared to pay for.
Pure kneejerk dog whistling. A policy that could never be implemented.
Hence perfect for this dishonest, stale, backward looking Government.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the Army would oppose this. Last thing it needs is a bunch of reluctant recruits.
They would need a lot of Senior NCOs to look after the welfare, training and discipline of Rishi's Wagners.
The biggest retention issue with and hence shortage of the Army has is... Senior NCOs.
I'm not sure how it would work with the RAF and RN as they have a much higher proportion of roles that need hard won technical skills and experience. The vast majority of them will be simply be useless eaters. A net negative to whichever branch is unlucky enough to have them.
If you're going to do it then the Zionist Entity's policy of 32 months makes a lot more sense because they probably get more or less useful personnel for the second half of that period.
Times leader today Rishi Sunak’s rain-spattered announcement of a July general election was drearily befitting of a government more than 20 points behind in the polls. The spoils that await the victor include a near-record NHS waiting list, an education system still reeling from Covid and an economy producing anaemic growth. But Sunak was right to call the election, even if he ends up falling short. Britain has been drifting for eight years, since the Brexit vote that unleashed demons within the Tory party and hobbled the economy.
You'd think the Times might have just noticed Covid, the invasion of Ukraine, the consequent cost of living crisis...
I suppose the difference is COVID and the invasion of Ukraine weren't government policies. People blame Conservatives for bad stuff that they imposed on us, like Brexit.
I see Rishi has really got under the skin of his opponents with his National Service policy.
Perhaps they doth protest too much.
It's not just his opponents though, this time.
I have a plan! And here's the back of a fag packet that I wrote it on.
For all sorts of reasons encouraging civic duty is to be lauded. We are possibly on the cusp of WW3 so mobilising a reservist army might make sense.
But this is just knee jerk backs against the wall stuff. Rishi " what can we do next?" Dowden "reintroduce conscription!". Jenrick "strafe the boats". Braverman "execute socialist traitors, and anyone else I don't like". It's all just performative nonsense.
And, yet, everyone is talking about him and the Conservatives today, and not Labour, and it will force the latter to respond.
This is why I think buying Tory seats is such a risky proposition.
If they carry on like this, it is difficult to see where the floor is, particularly in view of the number of narrow Tory victories in the current projections.
No, because centre-right voters don't think as you do.
This is why I think buying Tory seats is such a risky proposition.
If they carry on like this, it is difficult to see where the floor is, particularly in view of the number of narrow Tory victories in the current projections.
No, because centre-right voters don't think as you do.
This is why I think buying Tory seats is such a risky proposition.
If they carry on like this, it is difficult to see where the floor is, particularly in view of the number of narrow Tory victories in the current projections.
No, because centre-right voters don't think as you do.
Criticizing the Sunakjugend plan because it's unfeasible misses the point. It's never going to happen so whether or not it's possible or even desirable is of no moment. It's a turnout strategy to ensure that the only significant remaining island of tory support - over 70s of low educational attainment and zero moral conscience - get out and vote on the day.
It's a policy finely crafted to appeal to that generation that thinks they fought WW2 but didn't. On that basis, it's not, unlike almost everything else the little shit does, terrible politics.
It's the right wing equivalent of VAT on private schools. A signal for the base.
Problem is that the denizens of Mail Online have turned against it.
David Cameron proposed almost exactly the same policy in opposition pre-2010.
I remember it being heavily pilloried then too, and the only difference is that it was voluntary and the military bit was eventually dropped, but it's been running for over 10 years now and over a half a million young people have completed it and it has secured cross-party support.
It didn't start out that way.
And Sunak recently cut the funding to that scheme.
The national service policy is pretty mental given the documented struggles the Conservatives have with voters under 45.
I also think the framing of it is pretty daft. Allowing the term National Service anywhere near it is suicidally insane. You could have framed it as a Royal Commission to explore the setting up of a structured gap year programme, whether it should be optional or mandatory etc. You can then pretend it’s a year on Ibiza to the youth vote and nod and wink your true intentions to the old and crotchety. It might not work but the approach would be smarter politically.
The only thing I can think is that Rishi knows he’s going to lose so is going to put as many right wing hobby horses in the manifesto to discredit them, hope they retain a credible number of seats and force the Tories towards sanity as they rebuild. Risky.
This policy is struggling with the over 45s. Wall to wall ridicule in mail and Telegraph comments
Fortysomethings and fiftysomethings have teenaged children.
We do. Thank you for making the important point. The idea of my 18 year old going into compulsory National Service is just beyond hideous.
There is a hidden issue under this as well. For the first time for decades mothers, partners and others are starting to ask: Will my son/husband etc be of an age to be called up (and stand a decent chance of death or injury) when the Russians arrive in Finland/Poland/Estonia.
We are not used to this, and 2024 is, culturally, far from 1939.
I see Rishi has really got under the skin of his opponents with his National Service policy.
Perhaps they doth protest too much.
It's not just his opponents though, this time.
I have a plan! And here's the back of a fag packet that I wrote it on.
For all sorts of reasons encouraging civic duty is to be lauded. We are possibly on the cusp of WW3 so mobilising a reservist army might make sense.
But this is just knee jerk backs against the wall stuff. Rishi " what can we do next?" Dowden "reintroduce conscription!". Jenrick "strafe the boats". Braverman "execute socialist traitors, and anyone else I don't like". It's all just performative nonsense.
And, yet, everyone is talking about him and the Conservatives today, and not Labour, and it will force the latter to respond.
That'll do him nicely.
The all publicity is good publicity argument.
Theresa May's dementia tax says hi.
Though, to be honest, this madcap idea is probably a small net positive for the Tories. A core vote strategy must be assumed to be the least bad option when you have no chance of winning converts, and the Tory core is large.
And the big policy for the day-three campaign relaunch is… national service? Which the Defence Secretary dismissed as “nonsense” only in January?
There has been much ink spilled, since the advent of New Labour, about the decline of Cabinet government. But it’s hard to think of a clearer example of the very opposite, government by bunker, than we have seen in the past year. The headline conference policies, like the election, were cooked up secretly in Downing Street – and like they election, they were botch jobs.
Now the same thing is playing out again. What would be the consequences if an 18-year-old refused national service? We can hardly send them to prison, not whilst ministers are having to extend early release programmes. Even if Conservative candidates support national service in principle, they need and deserve answers to those questions, and a fully worked-out policy.
Because how long will it be before this, too, implodes? Before people realise that only five per cent of 18-year-olds could even do the military component, and not a single one in a combat role (even if they wanted to), or that it’s funded by scrapping the levelling up money.
Maybe it will peel a couple of percentage points off Reform UK’s. But as I have written elsewhere, in the medium term Reform’s prospects aren’t amazing.
The long-term challenge for the Party is going to be regaining the trust of all those generations (broadly, the under-50s) who have abandoned the party over its failures on issues such as housing, childcare, and the cost of living. Some of those voters may well recall the promise to conscript them, or their children, long after the immediate threat of Reform UK has faded.
Nostalgia for a lost golden era of British politics is usually unhelpful, even where it is not misinformed. But it is increasingly clear that the withering of the Party as an institution has reached the point where it is self-destructive.
You searching the Internet for comments by anonymous Internet users that confirm what you already want to believe proves nothing.
This policy will have been focus grouped and tested to death first, and those people don't all sit up in troll farms overnight.
I see Rishi has really got under the skin of his opponents with his National Service policy.
Perhaps they doth protest too much.
It's not just his opponents though, this time.
I have a plan! And here's the back of a fag packet that I wrote it on.
For all sorts of reasons encouraging civic duty is to be lauded. We are possibly on the cusp of WW3 so mobilising a reservist army might make sense.
But this is just knee jerk backs against the wall stuff. Rishi " what can we do next?" Dowden "reintroduce conscription!". Jenrick "strafe the boats". Braverman "execute socialist traitors, and anyone else I don't like". It's all just performative nonsense.
And, yet, everyone is talking about him and the Conservatives today, and not Labour, and it will force the latter to respond.
That'll do him nicely.
The all publicity is good publicity argument.
Theresa May's dementia tax says hi.
Though, to be honest, this madcap idea is probably a small net positive for the Tories. A core vote strategy must be assumed to be the least bad option when you have no chance of winning converts, and the Tory core is large.
Do the military want Sunaks proposal ? The practicalities around the weekend community service . What happens to 18 year olds at university who might be working to supplement their studies .
What if you actually are in full time work but work at weekends . Will the government pay for your lossed income ?
And how much will the policy cost tax payers when finances are so tight ?
If you ask the military if they’d rather have this scheme or the same money spent on something else, they’ll say something else.
If you ask the NHS if they’d rather have this scheme or the same money spent on something else, they’ll say something else.
If you ask the police if they’d rather have this scheme or the same money spent on something else, they’ll say something else.
This is why I think buying Tory seats is such a risky proposition.
If they carry on like this, it is difficult to see where the floor is, particularly in view of the number of narrow Tory victories in the current projections.
No, because centre-right voters don't think as you do.
Centre-right voters think Richi is an idiot
Gentle tip: repeatedly calling him "Richi" is deeply childish, as well as boring.
Dropping big ideas suddenly in an election campaign does have a precedent. See Theresa May's splendid success following this approach.
Mr Dancer, Theresa May’s bombshell idea at least had the virtue of trying to answer a well defined problem. I’m not sure what problem Sunak thinks he’s identified that this policy solves.
This is why I think buying Tory seats is such a risky proposition.
If they carry on like this, it is difficult to see where the floor is, particularly in view of the number of narrow Tory victories in the current projections.
No, because centre-right voters don't think as you do.
Centre-right voters think Richi is an idiot
Gentle tip: repeatedly calling him "Richi" is deeply childish, as well as boring.
I mean, all of this needs supervision. And training.
And neither supervision nor training is something our Government will be prepared to pay for.
Pure kneejerk dog whistling. A policy that could never be implemented.
Hence perfect for this dishonest, stale, backward looking Government.
Where does all this performative rubbish to lick the balls of Reform voters end? I say pledging the televised execution of baby murdering nurses. Beat that!
This is why I think buying Tory seats is such a risky proposition.
If they carry on like this, it is difficult to see where the floor is, particularly in view of the number of narrow Tory victories in the current projections.
No, because centre-right voters don't think as you do.
Criticizing the Sunakjugend plan because it's unfeasible misses the point. It's never going to happen so whether or not it's possible or even desirable is of no moment. It's a turnout strategy to ensure that the only significant remaining island of tory support - over 70s of low educational attainment and zero moral conscience - get out and vote on the day.
It's a policy finely crafted to appeal to that generation that thinks they fought WW2 but didn't. On that basis, it's not, unlike almost everything else the little shit does, terrible politics.
It's the right wing equivalent of VAT on private schools. A signal for the base.
Problem is that the denizens of Mail Online have turned against it.
David Cameron proposed almost exactly the same policy in opposition pre-2010.
I remember it being heavily pilloried then too, and the only difference is that it was voluntary and the military bit was eventually dropped, but it's been running for over 10 years now and over a half a million young people have completed it and it has secured cross-party support.
It didn't start out that way.
And Sunak recently cut the funding to that scheme.
I see Rishi has really got under the skin of his opponents with his National Service policy.
Perhaps they doth protest too much.
It's not just his opponents though, this time.
I have a plan! And here's the back of a fag packet that I wrote it on.
For all sorts of reasons encouraging civic duty is to be lauded. We are possibly on the cusp of WW3 so mobilising a reservist army might make sense.
But this is just knee jerk backs against the wall stuff. Rishi " what can we do next?" Dowden "reintroduce conscription!". Jenrick "strafe the boats". Braverman "execute socialist traitors, and anyone else I don't like". It's all just performative nonsense.
And, yet, everyone is talking about him and the Conservatives today, and not Labour, and it will force the latter to respond.
That'll do him nicely.
The all publicity is good publicity argument.
Theresa May's dementia tax says hi.
Though, to be honest, this madcap idea is probably a small net positive for the Tories. A core vote strategy must be assumed to be the least bad option when you have no chance of winning converts, and the Tory core is large.
May was well ahead, Sunak is well behind.
He has to disrupt. This has disrupted.
But which way? It could unite enough of the right to make the incoming defeat not-too-bad, or it could collapse what little support the Conservatives have left. After all, 'we must do something dramatic/this is something dramatic/we must do this' is famously bad logic.
@DeltapollUK 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by twenty-two points in our poll for the Mail on Sunday. Con 23% (-) Lab 45% (-) Lib Dem 9% (-1) Reform 10% (-2) SNP 3% (-) Green 6% (+1) Other 3% (-) Fieldwork: 23rd-25th May 2024 Sample: 1,517 GB adults (Changes from 17th-20th May 2024)
I see Rishi has really got under the skin of his opponents with his National Service policy.
Perhaps they doth protest too much.
It's not just his opponents though, this time.
I have a plan! And here's the back of a fag packet that I wrote it on.
For all sorts of reasons encouraging civic duty is to be lauded. We are possibly on the cusp of WW3 so mobilising a reservist army might make sense.
But this is just knee jerk backs against the wall stuff. Rishi " what can we do next?" Dowden "reintroduce conscription!". Jenrick "strafe the boats". Braverman "execute socialist traitors, and anyone else I don't like". It's all just performative nonsense.
And, yet, everyone is talking about him and the Conservatives today, and not Labour, and it will force the latter to respond.
That'll do him nicely.
I think this is right, and it's a necessary step for Sunak to try to shift the polls.
It's a big roll of the dice that seems to have landed on 1 not 6. I'm with @numbertwelve in that I don't think it would actually be the worst idea if it was framed (and implemented) differently. In particular I think it was @ToryJim who said that labelling it National Service is the suicidal part.
But you can see why the apparently incompetent team advising Sunak have used this label - it is primarily an idea to grab the oxygen today, not a thought-through policy.
Like Rwanda, like so much this government does, I don't think it's the actual idea that is farcical, more the implementation of it.
I mean, all of this needs supervision. And training.
And neither supervision nor training is something our Government will be prepared to pay for.
Pure kneejerk dog whistling. A policy that could never be implemented.
Hence perfect for this dishonest, stale, backward looking Government.
As I posted last night, this proposal is gift week for Tory spivs. We would need to manage these compulsory volunteers. Ensure they turn up. Find them something to do. And that is Good News if you a Tory.
The party handed out £107m contracts without tender to companies founded days earlier by Tories. No questions asked and in many cases no usable PPE supplied.
The National Service scheme will hand out literal billions in management fees. All disappearing into the right people’s pockets as this corrupt party once again finds a way to line the pockets of its friends and patrons with our money.
I see Rishi has really got under the skin of his opponents with his National Service policy.
Perhaps they doth protest too much.
It's not just his opponents though, this time.
I have a plan! And here's the back of a fag packet that I wrote it on.
For all sorts of reasons encouraging civic duty is to be lauded. We are possibly on the cusp of WW3 so mobilising a reservist army might make sense.
But this is just knee jerk backs against the wall stuff. Rishi " what can we do next?" Dowden "reintroduce conscription!". Jenrick "strafe the boats". Braverman "execute socialist traitors, and anyone else I don't like". It's all just performative nonsense.
And, yet, everyone is talking about him and the Conservatives today, and not Labour, and it will force the latter to respond.
That'll do him nicely.
The all publicity is good publicity argument.
Theresa May's dementia tax says hi.
Though, to be honest, this madcap idea is probably a small net positive for the Tories. A core vote strategy must be assumed to be the least bad option when you have no chance of winning converts, and the Tory core is large.
May was well ahead, Sunak is well behind.
He has to disrupt. This has disrupted.
But which way? It could unite enough of the right to make the incoming defeat not-too-bad, or it could collapse what little support the Conservatives have left. After all, 'we must do something dramatic/this is something dramatic/we must do this' is famously bad logic.
It could not collapse it because what's left of Conservative v Reform voting intention is solidly right-wing. And it's about rallying the former and the latter to the former.
What you're seeing here is the noise of the 60%+ who aren't and are highly motivated to scream and shout about it.
Dropping big ideas suddenly in an election campaign does have a precedent. See Theresa May's splendid success following this approach.
Mr Dancer, Theresa May’s bombshell idea at least had the virtue of trying to answer a well defined problem. I’m not sure what problem Sunak thinks he’s identified that this policy solves.
It actually was a good policy for funding Social Care.
This was from earlier this year, when the head of the army was publicly slapped down because Number 10 thought suggesting the need for #nationalservice was alarmist 🤷♂️
Do his Spads hate him and want to make him look bad?
You cannot help but wonder.
A market on Will Sunak be an MP on say 1 January 2025 would be interesting. It does look very like a "So long, suckers!" strategy.
His seat isn’t actually rock solid safe. I mean, he’ll probably get back easily but it’s not a total shoo-in if things go badly. Electoral Calculus predict 37% Con to 31% Lab and the recent mayoral election will have given a small pause for thought. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?postcode=DL10+4LD
Didn’t Chris Patten famously lose in 1997 because he was so nationally focused that he forgot about Bath?
This is why I think buying Tory seats is such a risky proposition.
If they carry on like this, it is difficult to see where the floor is, particularly in view of the number of narrow Tory victories in the current projections.
No, because centre-right voters don't think as you do.
This may attract voters on the right-wing fringe, but it's going to be poison for voters anywhere near the centre.
I mean, all of this needs supervision. And training.
And neither supervision nor training is something our Government will be prepared to pay for.
Pure kneejerk dog whistling. A policy that could never be implemented.
Hence perfect for this dishonest, stale, backward looking Government.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the Army would oppose this. Last thing it needs is a bunch of reluctant recruits.
Military service will be voluntary. The reluctant ones will be doing the compulsory alternative service, like in the NHS. So you should say: I think the NHS would oppose this. Last thing it needs is a bunch of reluctant recruits.
This is why I think buying Tory seats is such a risky proposition.
If they carry on like this, it is difficult to see where the floor is, particularly in view of the number of narrow Tory victories in the current projections.
No, because centre-right voters don't think as you do.
Do you actually think this a good idea?
I have no problem with it.
I can see merits in an 18-55 reservist force, but not in the 1950s National Service model.
This policy will have been focus grouped and tested to death first, and those people don't all sit up in troll farms overnight.
The Dementia Tax says hi, again
Wasn't focus grouped. Theresa May didn't talk to or confide in anyone.
We only found that out afterwards. Very likely to be true of Rishi too. I think he has gone rogue and the calling of the election was a "f*** you" to his party for wanting rid of him
I see Rishi has really got under the skin of his opponents with his National Service policy.
Perhaps they doth protest too much.
It's not just his opponents though, this time.
I have a plan! And here's the back of a fag packet that I wrote it on.
For all sorts of reasons encouraging civic duty is to be lauded. We are possibly on the cusp of WW3 so mobilising a reservist army might make sense.
But this is just knee jerk backs against the wall stuff. Rishi " what can we do next?" Dowden "reintroduce conscription!". Jenrick "strafe the boats". Braverman "execute socialist traitors, and anyone else I don't like". It's all just performative nonsense.
And, yet, everyone is talking about him and the Conservatives today, and not Labour, and it will force the latter to respond.
That'll do him nicely.
I think this is right, and it's a necessary step for Sunak to try to shift the polls.
It's a big roll of the dice that seems to have landed on 1 not 6. I'm with @numbertwelve in that I don't think it would actually be the worst idea if it was framed (and implemented) differently. In particular I think it was @ToryJim who said that labelling it National Service is the suicidal part.
But you can see why the apparently incompetent team advising Sunak have used this label - it is primarily an idea to grab the oxygen today, not a thought-through policy.
Like Rwanda, like so much this government does, I don't think it's the actual idea that is farcical, more the implementation of it.
The main Tory message that is repeated in every interviews seems to be "Only we have a plan. It is starting to work. Don't risk change with the other lot now".
This seemingly random significant change coming out of nowhere just reminds everyone that actually, they haven't had a plan bar getting Brexit "done" since 2016.
This is why I think buying Tory seats is such a risky proposition.
If they carry on like this, it is difficult to see where the floor is, particularly in view of the number of narrow Tory victories in the current projections.
Agreed.
I was nervous, based partly on re-reading the histories of 1992, 2017, and 2019.
But they are calming my fears.
And reaction from moderate Conservatives is reassuring in the long-term. The country needs a sensible centre-right Party. They will come back to governance some day.
There is no guarantee that anything resembling the moderate right will emerge from this episode. The Conservative Party can become almost as extreme as it likes, and brand recognition combined with the electoral system will at least preserve it as the main opposition.
Indeed, I'd go as far as to say that the centre-right in British politics has already undergone Pasokification - courtesy of the complete destruction of the orange book liberals, followed swiftly by the filleting of the one nation wing of the Tory party during the Brexit process and the ascent of Boris Johnson. There is no reason at all to suppose that the very extreme and elderly Tory membership will miraculously embrace moderation after a chastening defeat - they're more likely to seek a unite the right merger with RefUK, with policies and a leadership chosen to facilitate this - and there is effectively zero chance of the Conservatives being replaced by a challenger party.
Except that ‘movement Tory’ boomer generation is dying out, and the GenX and Millennials following behind have a different political outlook. That’s not to say that they would never vote Tory, but the voting Tory as an aspirational life choice thing that has characterised the Boomer generation is on the way out.
In a Tory q&a about today's policy - they don't rule out arresting people if they don't take up national service. They talk about the commission exploring an "appropriate incentives regime".
Dropping big ideas suddenly in an election campaign does have a precedent. See Theresa May's splendid success following this approach.
Mr Dancer, Theresa May’s bombshell idea at least had the virtue of trying to answer a well defined problem. I’m not sure what problem Sunak thinks he’s identified that this policy solves.
It actually was a good policy for funding Social Care.
I defended it on here at the time.
Yup, I didn’t think it was a bad way of solving that issue. This National Service policy is cuckoo.
In a Tory q&a about today's policy - they don't rule out arresting people if they don't take up national service. They talk about the commission exploring an "appropriate incentives regime".
Earlier this week - don't arrest criminals. By the weekend - arrest what will be tens of thousands of teenagers protesting about national service.
I see Rishi has really got under the skin of his opponents with his National Service policy.
Perhaps they doth protest too much.
It's not just his opponents though, this time.
I have a plan! And here's the back of a fag packet that I wrote it on.
For all sorts of reasons encouraging civic duty is to be lauded. We are possibly on the cusp of WW3 so mobilising a reservist army might make sense.
But this is just knee jerk backs against the wall stuff. Rishi " what can we do next?" Dowden "reintroduce conscription!". Jenrick "strafe the boats". Braverman "execute socialist traitors, and anyone else I don't like". It's all just performative nonsense.
And, yet, everyone is talking about him and the Conservatives today, and not Labour, and it will force the latter to respond.
That'll do him nicely.
But not positively.
If he took a televised dump on Downing Street that took would elicit a talking point, but not in a good way.
The good thing is we don’t actually have to spend all morning debating “good idea”/“bad idea”. There will be polling. Within days. Anyone who thinks this is a vote-winning idea is free to adjust their betting position accordingly.
I think this is analogous to climate change mitigation. Everyone is broadly supportive, but when it's you or your family paying the costs, it suddenly feels like the imposition of an authoritarian regime.
Indeed. Most would simply spend 5 weeks doing that in the summer holidays after their A-levels.
Not a big deal.
I find the outrage of the likes of Ian Dunt to be bizarre. People simply have not read the detail. It’s not going to be like ‘Get Some In’. In a way it’s similar to the big society.
As I say, I do not agree with it or support it. It should be truly voluntary. But the outrage about is odd.
The idea with this is that (a) it shocks and captures attention (b) it is disproportionately and unreasonably attacked and, then, (c) the Tories can spend days politely pointing out it's nowhere near as "bad" as people said it was, thus making them look as cool as cucumbers and their opponents look ridiculous, and not on top of the detail, whilst it dominates multiple newscycles for days.
This policy will have been focus grouped and tested to death first, and those people don't all sit up in troll farms overnight.
The Dementia Tax says hi, again
Wasn't focus grouped. Theresa May didn't talk to or confide in anyone.
We only found that out afterwards. Very likely to be true of Rishi too. I think he has gone rogue and the calling of the election was a "f*** you" to his party for wanting rid of him
From the Sunday Shipman,
Some of those summoned, knowing an election was on the cards, were delighted the prime minister had finally decided to consult senior elected politicians, many of whom think their political touch is defter than Sunak’s. Here was the “kitchen cabinet” off which to bounce ideas they had long suggested he set up.
Then Sunak said: “I have been to see the King. This is my decision. I’ll explain it to you and then, when we go next door, I’ll call on you to speak and I want you to back me.”
Far from a consultation exercise, this was a private rubber-stamping of a decision already made...
An email I just received from someone centre ground, 70 years old, a Daily Telegraph reader as it happens:
'I have been hearing as well about the tories' plans for young people and some form of compulsory national service. With the Rwandan scheme as well I have to say both are ridiculous and not thought out and a disgrace, Thoroughly nasty and I sincerely hope the General Election sees the back of them. And I do not see them in power in my remaining life time. Quite the most disagreeable government and party in power I have ever seen.'
Indeed. Most would simply spend 5 weeks doing that in the summer holidays after their A-levels.
Not a big deal.
I find the outrage of the likes of Ian Dunt to be bizarre. People simply have not read the detail. It’s not going to be like ‘Get Some In’. In a way it’s similar to the big society.
As I say, I do not agree with it or support it. It should be truly voluntary. But the outrage about is odd.
It isn’t outrage. It’s more mockery. That ridiculous unworkable ideas get pulled out of thin air and promoted because someone in CCHQ thinks it will play well with the Bufton-Tuftons. Thick of it politics in plain sight. We’re talking about a scheme that would need to accommodate 750k kids a year! I’m sure each police station is going to love 500 stroppy teenagers wandering around the control room and photocopying their arse.
Indeed. Most would simply spend 5 weeks doing that in the summer holidays after their A-levels.
Not a big deal.
I find the outrage of the likes of Ian Dunt to be bizarre. People simply have not read the detail. It’s not going to be like ‘Get Some In’. In a way it’s similar to the big society.
As I say, I do not agree with it or support it. It should be truly voluntary. But the outrage about is odd.
Agreed. I think it's because of the quote @Heathener posted from Callaghan yesterday, to the effect that this is a once-in-a-generation change election.
I think people have written off the Tories and therefore see something like this through the prism of 'everything this government does is useless'.
This is a poor idea, but doesn't merit this level of opprobrium imo
Comments
"Let all the poisons that lurk in the mud hatch out"
R Sunak’s first policy announcement- the return of national service- shows he has no sense of the state of the country he seeks to rule…and no political imagination to compensate for his blindness.
It is not a serious plan so the details are all tbc in a royal commission. It is a pitch to a particular electoral segment, who like this headline, from a governing party hoping to mitigate the scale of defeat.
@rafaelbehr
Royal commission is the tell that this was cooked up by hacks. It's such a leader writer's device for making a vague unworkable notion sound like a call to action.
I was nervous, based partly on re-reading the histories of 1992, 2017, and 2019.
But they are calming my fears.
And reaction from moderate Conservatives is reassuring in the long-term. The country needs a sensible centre-right Party. They will come back to governance some day.
Grouping refusers with social security claimants as scroungers who deserve a good beating is, after all, sound politics for the Tories (and any of their rivals competing for the votes of the reactionary elderly and other pitiless social conservatives.)
It certainly doesn't solve the public service problems- twelve weekends "volunteering" or one year military training isn't enough to make a teenager a net gain to their not-employer.
There are some real benefits to things like NCS- mix young people up, get different groups working together, develop soft skills, maybe even get some nice things done. But, as someone working with the target market, it's never gone mainstream.
And its funding has been cut massively in recent years.
But how does its reception compare with other daft ideas to come out from any of the main parties? Are there other infamous contenders?
(Not the Greens obvs who are notorious for it.)
https://x.com/Sam_Dumitriu/status/1794493362286088565
I have a plan! And here's the back of a fag packet that I wrote it on.
For all sorts of reasons encouraging civic duty is to be lauded. We are possibly on the cusp of WW3 so mobilising a reservist army might make sense.
But this is just knee jerk backs against the wall stuff. Rishi " what can we do next?" Dowden "reintroduce conscription!". Jenrick "strafe the boats". Braverman "execute socialist traitors, and anyone else I don't like". It's all just performative nonsense.
Labour lead by twenty-two points in our poll for the Mail on Sunday.
Con 23% (-)
Lab 45% (-)
Lib Dem 9% (-1)
Reform 10% (-2)
SNP 3% (-)
Green 6% (+1)
Other 3% (-)
Fieldwork: 23rd-25th May 2024
Sample: 1,517 GB adults
(Changes from 17th-20th May 2024)
https://x.com/MichaelTakeMP/status/1794620067579314337?t=E7dHAWJB0Q2ky1Ut-ASMVQ&s=19
Indeed, I'd go as far as to say that the centre-right in British politics has already undergone Pasokification - courtesy of the complete destruction of the orange book liberals, followed swiftly by the filleting of the one nation wing of the Tory party during the Brexit process and the ascent of Boris Johnson. There is no reason at all to suppose that the very extreme and elderly Tory membership will miraculously embrace moderation after a chastening defeat - they're more likely to seek a unite the right merger with RefUK, with policies and a leadership chosen to facilitate this - and there is effectively zero chance of the Conservatives being replaced by a challenger party.
No, joking aside, we need to see a batch of polls over at least a week. And I’m very suspicious of bank holiday polling too, something I’ve said on here from the get-go.
Let’s see if there are any signs of movement a week or so from now.
The biggest retention issue with and hence shortage of the Army has is... Senior NCOs.
I'm not sure how it would work with the RAF and RN as they have a much higher proportion of roles that need hard won technical skills and experience. The vast majority of them will be simply be useless eaters. A net negative to whichever branch is unlucky enough to have them.
If you're going to do it then the Zionist Entity's policy of 32 months makes a lot more sense because they probably get more or less useful personnel for the second half of that period.
Seems fair to me.
That'll do him nicely.
All Labour has to say is "We don't think this is a good idea"
And the public agree with them
Is he trying to lose on purpose?
Do his Spads hate him and want to make him look bad?
You cannot help but wonder.
I mean, if you stand up and say you like shagging goats everyone will also be talking about you ...
Nigel Farage
@Nigel_Farage
Does anyone really think that Sunak believes in National Service? This is more Tory lies.
He is following focus groups instead of being a leader.
A diminished armed forces could not carry it out & many that he’s allowed into our country would refuse to do it in the first place.
We are not used to this, and 2024 is, culturally, far from 1939.
Theresa May's dementia tax says hi.
Though, to be honest, this madcap idea is probably a small net positive for the Tories. A core vote strategy must be assumed to be the least bad option when you have no chance of winning converts, and the Tory core is large.
This policy will have been focus grouped and tested to death first, and those people don't all sit up in troll farms overnight.
He has to disrupt. This has disrupted.
If you ask the NHS if they’d rather have this scheme or the same money spent on something else, they’ll say something else.
If you ask the police if they’d rather have this scheme or the same money spent on something else, they’ll say something else.
https://x.com/ProfTimBale/status/1794626380954759244?t=U5-pBlrD5w8GIzlOSUYQHA&s=19
They might well have been brought up on Commando comics and airfix models but it doesn't mean that they wanted to be conscripted.
There's absolutely nothing they could say, do or think that you'd give them credit for. At all.
Phew, Freudian slip edited just in time!
Who'd have thought?
🚨New Voting Intention🚨
Labour lead by twenty-two points in our poll for the Mail on Sunday.
Con 23% (-)
Lab 45% (-)
Lib Dem 9% (-1)
Reform 10% (-2)
SNP 3% (-)
Green 6% (+1)
Other 3% (-)
Fieldwork: 23rd-25th May 2024
Sample: 1,517 GB adults
(Changes from 17th-20th May 2024)
p.s. @Scott_xP whereabouts was that Saigon-take cartoon published?
I still don’t like it, but it is nowhere near as bad as some have made out.
https://x.com/mattholehouse/status/1794474262872445280?s=61
It's a big roll of the dice that seems to have landed on 1 not 6. I'm with @numbertwelve in that I don't think it would actually be the worst idea if it was framed (and implemented) differently. In particular I think it was @ToryJim who said that labelling it National Service is the suicidal part.
But you can see why the apparently incompetent team advising Sunak have used this label - it is primarily an idea to grab the oxygen today, not a thought-through policy.
Like Rwanda, like so much this government does, I don't think it's the actual idea that is farcical, more the implementation of it.
https://x.com/samfr/status/1794484909689487486?s=61
The party handed out £107m contracts without tender to companies founded days earlier by Tories. No questions asked and in many cases no usable PPE supplied.
The National Service scheme will hand out literal billions in management fees. All disappearing into the right people’s pockets as this corrupt party once again finds a way to line the pockets of its friends and patrons with our money.
What you're seeing here is the noise of the 60%+ who aren't and are highly motivated to scream and shout about it.
I defended it on here at the time.
This was from earlier this year, when the head of the army was publicly slapped down because Number 10 thought suggesting the need for #nationalservice was alarmist 🤷♂️
https://x.com/jonsopel/status/1794629513017438673
Cut-through.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?postcode=DL10+4LD
Didn’t Chris Patten famously lose in 1997 because he was so nationally focused that he forgot about Bath?
Quite a powerful one that.
Right through Tory votes
This seemingly random significant change coming out of nowhere just reminds everyone that actually, they haven't had a plan bar getting Brexit "done" since 2016.
In a Tory q&a about today's policy - they don't rule out arresting people if they don't take up national service. They talk about the commission exploring an "appropriate incentives regime".
Not a big deal.
By the weekend - arrest what will be tens of thousands of teenagers protesting about national service.
Commanding the agenda that day doesn’t de facto make it a good day for you.
It can just make you look and sound like a fool.
If he took a televised dump on Downing Street that took would elicit a talking point, but not in a good way.
Few can afford spending that long in Ibiza.
Discuss colour swatches for a few moments.
There are lessons here for the left.
As I say, I do not agree with it or support it. It should be truly voluntary. But the outrage about is odd.
That'll do them nicely.
Some of those summoned, knowing an election was on the cards, were delighted the prime minister had finally decided to consult senior elected politicians, many of whom think their political touch is defter than Sunak’s. Here was the “kitchen cabinet” off which to bounce ideas they had long suggested he set up.
Then Sunak said: “I have been to see the King. This is my decision. I’ll explain it to you and then, when we go next door, I’ll call on you to speak and I want you to back me.”
Far from a consultation exercise, this was a private rubber-stamping of a decision already made...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cbe26cf8-5aee-4fc2-bcd3-e281242ca8ce?shareToken=98ba26be919fb5bdd598fc8d85496b4c
'I have been hearing as well about the tories' plans for young people and some form of compulsory national service. With the Rwandan scheme as well I have to say both are ridiculous and not thought out and a disgrace, Thoroughly nasty and I sincerely hope the General Election sees the back of them. And I do not see them in power in my remaining life time.
Quite the most disagreeable government and party in power I have ever seen.'
I'd expect this to be funded, even though the details aren't there yet.
I think people have written off the Tories and therefore see something like this through the prism of 'everything this government does is useless'.
This is a poor idea, but doesn't merit this level of opprobrium imo