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  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,797

    Leicester winning the league was hitting the lottery.

    I highly doubt anybody is getting £5k ROI on £75k outlay long term. As I say, Tony Bloom beat the market for 2%, with crazy resources and ability to get on money anywhere in the world. Football is hyper-efficient market.
    It might be now but football betting used to be notoriously inefficient with bookmakers even disagreeing who was favourite in a three-horse race (home win, away win, draw). In those days, bookmakers were protected by lazy punters, lack of information, and that you were not allowed to bet on singles (as part of an agreement with the football pools companies).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited May 2024
    Dura_Ace said:

    Exactly.

    The interesting (and lucrative) thing about Moto3/Moto2 is that the 2-3 best riders leave the series every year so if a championship contender from the previous season gets "left behind", goes well in testing and is on a good team then there's your WC bet.
    I don’t follow the bikes, but it’s exactly the same in cars, with British F3, Euro F3, FIA F3, and F2. They’re all feeder series for F1, and the top few each year move up a category or two as they hope to advance to the top.

    (Watching the teenagers of F3 trying to run around Monaco in the rain yesterday was fun to watch. If you’re not paying for the damage).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,730
    Heathener said:

    That’s extraordinary.

    How do you manage to surprise yourself with the timing of an election you called?

    What a mess.
    Everything we have seen so far suggests that Sunak is going to take the party down with him.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited May 2024

    It might be now but football betting used to be notoriously inefficient with bookmakers even disagreeing who was favourite in a three-horse race (home win, away win, draw). In those days, bookmakers were protected by lazy punters, lack of information, and that you were not allowed to bet on singles (as part of an agreement with the football pools companies).
    Betfair Exchange 10+ years ago was brilliantly inefficient for quite a lot of sports. If you knew how to use a computer and do some basic mathematical modelling, things like cricket totals were an absolute goldmine.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    One of my quirkiest bets came when I had to call around bookies to get odds on a then fairly unknown opposition politician to become the next leader of the Conservative Party. No one had any odds chalked up.
    Will Hill returned my call twenty minutes later offering me 16-1, so I took it with a payment over the phone.

    The politician?

    David Cameron.
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    Heathener said:

    That’s extraordinary.

    How do you manage to surprise yourself with the timing of an election you called?

    What a mess.
    As I keep saying in the hope that it turns out to be true and I look like Machiavelli, this is best understood as the denouement of a power struggle. My guess is it was put to Sunak that truss went quietly when her ratings got to where his are now, and he pulled the pin from the GE grenade in response.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    Foxy said:

    I won about £8 000 from Ladbrokes when Leicester won the PL in 2016, including £1 ew at 3000/1. They didn't put any restrictions on my account. More recently my football bets just about break even. I make a modest surplus on political bets (up £130 on date of GE for example, as I had bought Q3 anticipating a Sept GE, though lost £35 on the monthly markets)

    I don't bet big stakes though. Perhaps £10 most weeks on the footy and £500+ on UK elections, so maybe fly under their radar as too small to bother with.
    Nobody flies under the radar these days, every account is tracked and labelled. But as you say if you are only betting £10 total a week, that is probably the level they would restrict anyway. The big Leicester win will have been seen as just hitting the lottery, and they probably hope you dump it back over time.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,936
    rcs1000 said:

    The UBI and the £16 minimum wage are contradictory.
    ... Are they?

    A UBI is independent of earnings, so you could still have a minimum wage for hours worked. You might be thinking of a minimum income guarantee, the value of which would be adjusted by individual earnings. But even that wouldn't be contradictory on a per hour basis - it's basically how UC works at the moment.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited May 2024
    I am not sure it is even really possible to beat Betfair Exchange for big bucks these days given bots, more efficient markets and the upto 60% winner tax, I mean premium charge, on profits.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited May 2024
    Kind-of wish I was alive back in the brown envelope days.

    Reminds me of Peter Cook’s line in the aftermath of the Jeremy Thorpe trial,

    ‘It would be a sad day for this country if a leading politician cannot spend his election expenses on any way he sees fit.’

    :D

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kyos-M48B8U
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    p.s. am looking forward to HIGNFY this evening
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,319
    Eabhal said:

    I'll put myself forward just for a laugh.
    Another fiasco in the making. Sort of symbolic of the way they ran the country into the ground: focusing on public relations bullshit, while having absolutely no clue about how to administer a damn thing.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Eabhal said:

    ... Are they?

    A UBI is independent of earnings, so you could still have a minimum wage for hours worked. You might be thinking of a minimum income guarantee, the value of which would be adjusted by individual earnings. But even that wouldn't be contradictory on a per hour basis - it's basically how UC works at the moment.
    The whole idea of UBI is that you can get rid of minimum wages and tax credits. If everyone gets paid a £1500 a month, then working for £5 an hour becomes a viable option, rather than the company outsourcing the jobs to Asia.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,730
    edited May 2024

    Nobody flies under the radar these days, every account is tracked and labelled. But as you say if you are only betting £10 total a week, that is probably the level they would restrict anyway. The big Leicester win will have been seen as just hitting the lottery, and they probably hope you dump it back over time.
    PP did restrict my account, to the point that I barely use it. I think this was because of doing well on Constituency markets, particularly Scottish ones, in 2015.

    Looking at Bet365 markets by Contituency they have Labour odds on in far too many. Is Reigate or IoW East really right when Lab is favourite?

    Bet365 do seem a good company to me, as ethical as bookies get (not a very high bar) as they pay their CEO a salary, so she pays proper tax, don't operate FOBT as no retail shops and are a big employer in Stoke. Their football odds are good, and their app works smoothly and loads quickly. I have had no problems with them.

  • TazTaz Posts: 17,096
    Heathener said:

    p.s. am looking forward to HIGNFY this evening

    Well someone has to.

    My wife is working tonight so I am watching Columbo.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Off to a flying start….
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,730
    Heathener said:

    p.s. am looking forward to HIGNFY this evening

    Possibly now required to be more balanced as now pre-election, so expect as many jokes about Starmer as Sunak.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,915
    Sandpit said:

    SOP for Rishi Sunak.
    "Hey! Let's cancel a nearly complete train line on a whim! That'll do it!"
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,730
    Chris said:

    I think they've alienated most demographics by pursuing a long-term policy of courting short-term popularity.
    Yes, a very concise summary. That is the problem with Populism.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,291

    My Party has made some policy announcements today.
    Green Party Policies.

    • Renationalising our NHS
    • £70bn Wealth Tax
    • 500,000 Council Homes
    • £16 per hour min wage
    • Universal Basic Income
    • Rent Controls
    • Abolishing Tuition Fees
    • Recognition of Palestine
    • Free Secondary School Meals
    • Axe Two-Child Cap

    Top Party and most people won't have a clue what they stand for.

    Do they have any policies on the environment?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,046
    rcs1000 said:
    We've talked about the decline in split ticketing before, and I've been told this is (one reason) why the Republicans will win the senate. Biden's unpopularity will drag down the other candidates.

    Have we considered what will happen in states where there are competitive elections with MAGA nutcases running? Might, by the same logic, that actually lead to the Republican vote for the Presidency in key states being depressed?
    Taz said:

    I can remember someone positing here about her, how,wonderful she was, and how she was the future of the Republican Party.
    The second point still seems plausible...
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,583
    Heathener said:

    By the way, y’all know my views about what’s coming but I had another shambolic train journey yesterday. Usual saga. Train pulls out of Exeter on time but then halts and before you know it we’re already ten minutes late. Guard announces that ‘we will make up the time on the journey’. Everyone just laughs. Train falls further and further behind until, at Salisbury, it’s cancelled altogether.

    The trains are scruffy as hell with no sign of investment. The loos are disgusting. They withdrew all refreshments during lockdown and didn’t return them - you can go 4 hours in hot weather but 'nor any drop to drink.’

    And at every single station they blast a full volume message about ‘uniformed and non-uniformed staff patrol our trains. Failure to buy a valid ticket could result in an instant £100 fine and prosecution.’ Followed by an institutional protection message: ‘any abusive behaviour towards a member of of our staff will not be tolerated and will be reported to British Transport Police.’ So you can’t even point out, politely, that their service is shit.

    So it’s another Delay Repay claim. Several trains down and several trains up either side of my one were also cancelled.

    SWR are a godawful mess.
    Like so much of our railway network.
    Like so much of our country.

    The trains bear the name and livery of their former operator: SWR. In reality the franchise was abolished in 2020 and SWR now take a small margin to operationally do exactly what the government tell them.

    The challenge that Labour have isn't that they need to "nationalise" these operators. They're almost entirely run out of the DfT. Their challenge is how to remove the dead hand of the state and free GBR to be state owned but commercially operated like all of the successful "private" operators we have had over the last few decades - SNCF, DB, NS, FS etc
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    edited May 2024
    Heathener said:

    That’s extraordinary.

    How do you manage to surprise yourself with the timing of an election you called?

    What a mess.
    Same problem Putin had with his surprise invasion of Ukraine, the only way you can keep the secret is if it's secret from your own side as well as the opposition. But your side wasn't expecting there to be a surprise, whereas the other side was...
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,583
    megasaur said:

    As I keep saying in the hope that it turns out to be true and I look like Machiavelli, this is best understood as the denouement of a power struggle. My guess is it was put to Sunak that truss went quietly when her ratings got to where his are now, and he pulled the pin from the GE grenade in response.
    Yes. There was a lot of talk about Sunak triggering a GE in response to the party moving against him. I think that has happened:
    Took the cabinet and MPs by surprise
    Party machine not remotely ready
    Electoral strategy (Rwanda) falls apart at first glance as was written for a campaign *after* flights had started
    Scramble to stop MPs retiring all at once and desperate lack of candidates with minimal time to adopt them
    Raging MPs try to complete their putsch but realise they are out of time.

    So congratulations Rishi! You avoided being dumped by the party! I fear the reception from the electorate may be worse. And according to the right wing media he is challenging Sunak to a debate every week? Erm, is he sure? Sunak is brittle and fragile, do you really want him in a debate?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited May 2024
    viewcode said:

    "Hey! Let's cancel a nearly complete train line on a whim! That'll do it!"
    Don’t start me on infrastructure. I live somewhere where infrastructure just bloody happens, because government knows that people stuck in traffic aren’t being productive.

    They should have built a bridge or tunnel under London to make HS2 line up with HS1. HS2, Crossrail2, Stonehenge Tunnel, Brynglas Tunnel, LHR 3rd runway, and a whole load more should all have been fixed decades ago.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,243

    The trains bear the name and livery of their former operator: SWR. In reality the franchise was abolished in 2020 and SWR now take a small margin to operationally do exactly what the government tell them.

    The challenge that Labour have isn't that they need to "nationalise" these operators. They're almost entirely run out of the DfT. Their challenge is how to remove the dead hand of the state and free GBR to be state owned but commercially operated like all of the successful "private" operators we have had over the last few decades - SNCF, DB, NS, FS etc
    Though to be fair there's not many people in Germany who'd endorse DB right now, and their UK train franchises, via their appalling Arriva subsidiary, were/are horrible. (Arriva Trains Wales, CrossCountry. Chiltern was good while the sainted Adrian Shooter's influence persisted, but has recently been Arriva-ised and is now just yet another commuter railway using 90s trains.)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,046
    Sandpit said:

    Don’t start me on infrastructure.
    That's what Sunak said...
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited May 2024
    Sandpit said:

    Don’t start me on infrastructure. I live somewhere where infrastructure just bloody happens, because government knows that people stuck in traffic aren’t being productive.

    They should have built a bridge or tunnel under London to make HS2 line up with HS1. HS2, Crossrail2, Stonehenge Tunnel, Brynglas Tunnel, LHR 3rd runway, and a whole load more should all have been fixed decades ago.
    Indeed.

    About the only thing I agreed with Boris about was his estuary London airport.

    I know the cost was phenomenal but it was visionary. And it’s what places in the Middle East and e.g. Hong Kong have done. The opportunities it afforded over Heathrow, which is a dog’s breakfast, were immense. The regeneration around the east side of London, building on 2012, would have been incredible.

    You’re absolutely right. You need a Gov’t that realises infrastructure is important for productivity. It’s also rather good for wellbeing (which also aids productivity).

    Norway have done this for years. Stunning trains and roads. If there’s a mountain or sea in the way they tunnel or bridge it.

    But then, to link back to what was posted earlier, they didn’t sell off the family silver ...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,048

    The trains bear the name and livery of their former operator: SWR. In reality the franchise was abolished in 2020 and SWR now take a small margin to operationally do exactly what the government tell them.

    The challenge that Labour have isn't that they need to "nationalise" these operators. They're almost entirely run out of the DfT. Their challenge is how to remove the dead hand of the state and free GBR to be state owned but commercially operated like all of the successful "private" operators we have had over the last few decades - SNCF, DB, NS, FS etc
    There's also the question of what caused the delays. Was it a failure on SWR's part (say, another train of theirs broken down further along the line), or a failure by Network Rail or a.n.other.

    I hope to God, when they 'renationalise' the railways, they don't get rid of delay attribution. It's vital to a well-functioning network. (AIUI BR was starting to implement it in the 1980s, as computerisation started to allow it.)
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,583

    Though to be fair there's not many people in Germany who'd endorse DB right now, and their UK train franchises, via their appalling Arriva subsidiary, were/are horrible. (Arriva Trains Wales, CrossCountry. Chiltern was good while the sainted Adrian Shooter's influence persisted, but has recently been Arriva-ised and is now just yet another commuter railway using 90s trains.)
    Two significant challenges:
    1. Cut costs. Doing anything costs appalling amounts more on our network vs anywhere else. And no, it isn't wages. The bureaucratic mess needs to be bonfired. Leaner management structure of rail professionals, less contracts, less lawyers
    2. Cut meddling. The industry is desperately short of trains. The manufacturers are in need of orders or they shut. Trains are - and will remain - privately owned. The reason why they can't be built is the DfT refuses to let operators lease them. Madness.

    The fix is relatively straight forward. Longer trains, cheaper tickets, more passengers. Demand is there. Make it simple and people will come - look at LNER post Covid. Or lumo. Imagine if CrossCountry ran 10 car trains on every service - they would still be full. And every rail passenger takes demand off the roads - publicly funded - and saves money there...
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited May 2024

    There's also the question of what caused the delays. Was it a failure on SWR's part (say, another train of theirs broken down further along the line), or a failure by Network Rail or a.n.other.

    I hope to God, when they 'renationalise' the railways, they don't get rid of delay attribution. It's vital to a well-functioning network. (AIUI BR was starting to implement it in the 1980s, as computerisation started to allow it.)
    I suppose to be absolutely fair to SWR that particular route has a lot of single line track which is, of course, a constant screw up.

    Which brings us back to @Sandpit ’s point about infrastructure. Would it really have been so hard to realise that a mainline down to the south-west, as an alternative to the GWR line, might require a double track?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,974
    Sandpit said:

    The whole idea of UBI is that you can get rid of minimum wages and tax credits. If everyone gets paid a £1500 a month, then working for £5 an hour becomes a viable option, rather than the company outsourcing the jobs to Asia.
    Quite.

    You can reorder it in multiple ways: so, people can choose to do jobs that are enjoyable but low value add for example.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Mind you, yesterday’s excuses were ‘animals on the track’ and ‘landslides'
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,048

    Though to be fair there's not many people in Germany who'd endorse DB right now, and their UK train franchises, via their appalling Arriva subsidiary, were/are horrible. (Arriva Trains Wales, CrossCountry. Chiltern was good while the sainted Adrian Shooter's influence persisted, but has recently been Arriva-ised and is now just yet another commuter railway using 90s trains.)
    Or, alternatively, the DfT's dead hand have made any proper management impossible...
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,583

    There's also the question of what caused the delays. Was it a failure on SWR's part (say, another train of theirs broken down further along the line), or a failure by Network Rail or a.n.other.

    I hope to God, when they 'renationalise' the railways, they don't get rid of delay attribution. It's vital to a well-functioning network. (AIUI BR was starting to implement it in the 1980s, as computerisation started to allow it.)
    From a passenger perspective it doesn't matter what causes the delay. They are late, and whether the train broke down / the crew were missing / the rails buckled / signals failed they still get compensation.

    That system needs to stay. "delay attribution" relates to the internal payments due to either operator or infrastructure owner depending on what went wrong. Which involves a vast array of contracts which means contract managers and lawyers and costs. I'd do away with that in a heartbeat - won't affect passengers getting their money back.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Heathener said:

    Indeed.

    About the only thing I agreed with Boris about was his estuary London airport.

    I know the cost was phenomenal but it was visionary. And it’s what places in the Middle East and e.g. Hong Kong have done. The opportunities it afforded over Heathrow, which is a dog’s breakfast, were immense. The regeneration around the east side of London, building on 2012, would have been incredible.

    You’re absolutely right. You need a Gov’t that realises infrastructure is important for productivity. It’s also rather good for wellbeing (which also aids productivity).

    Norway have done this for years. Stunning trains and roads. If there’s a mountain or sea in the way they tunnel or bridge it.

    But then, to link back to what was posted earlier, they didn’t sell off the family silver ...
    The estuary airport was in the wrong place, but the sentiment was correct. You actually want to put the main London airport somewhere around Leighton Buzzard, as was a previous proposal from the ‘60s, with a Shanghai-style maglev straight into the city.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,926
    ydoethur said:

    On a point of pedantry;

    1906 the Conservatives won 129 seats.

    The other 27 were Liberal Unionists.
    Nevertheless a big step up from arguing about whether July 1,2 or 3 is the middle of the year, when a genny lec could only be called for the 4th anyway. Kudos.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,255
    I’ve woken up with what I believe is now called a snappy rec
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited May 2024
    Sandpit said:

    The whole idea of UBI is that you can get rid of minimum wages and tax credits. If everyone gets paid a £1500 a month, then working for £5 an hour becomes a viable option, rather than the company outsourcing the jobs to Asia.
    The problem (other than the enormous cost) will always be that politicians will get involved and start to identify groups that need a bit extra, a top up here and there, etc etc etc, and before you know it we are back to a benefits system.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited May 2024
    Foxy said:

    PP did restrict my account, to the point that I barely use it. I think this was because of doing well on Constituency markets, particularly Scottish ones, in 2015.

    Looking at Bet365 markets by Contituency they have Labour odds on in far too many. Is Reigate or IoW East really right when Lab is favourite?

    Bet365 do seem a good company to me, as ethical as bookies get (not a very high bar) as they pay their CEO a salary, so she pays proper tax, don't operate FOBT as no retail shops and are a big employer in Stoke. Their football odds are good, and their app works smoothly and loads quickly. I have had no problems with them.

    That massive salary for Coates doesn't come from UK punters, they operate a very dodgy business facilitating Chinese gamblers. It makes up a huge proportion of their income and why they are doing much better than the other UK betting groups.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/inside-the-world-of-illegal-online-gambling-in-china-2022-9

    Now this isn't as dodgy as those gambling sites you have never heard of on the front of EPL team shirts, and if you visit them they don't want your business. That is total different orders of magnitude dodgy, with organised criminals, slave labour, the whole 9 yards.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    The problem (other than the enormous cost) will always be that politicians will get involved and start to identify groups that need a bit extra, a top up here and there, etc etc etc, and before you know it we are back to a benefits system.
    Yes, I think that housing benefit would be the single biggest problem with UBI, which is why it’s not happened yet. Basically, if you don’t have a high-paying job then you can’t afford to live in much of London.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641
    IanB2 said:

    Nevertheless a big step up from arguing about whether July 1,2 or 3 is the middle of the year, when a genny lec could only be called for the 4th anyway. Kudos.
    I remember the shock of the 2017 exit poll when it came up CON largest party but no majority! But in hindsight of course it was obvious we had thrown away our lead during the campaign, another week and LAB would have won.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,243
    Leon said:

    I’ve woken up with what I believe is now called a snappy rec

    This deserves to be the most flagged post in PB history
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,467
    edited May 2024
    Heathener said:

    By the way, y’all know my views about what’s coming but I had another shambolic train journey yesterday. Usual saga. Train pulls out of Exeter on time but then halts and before you know it we’re already ten minutes late. Guard announces that ‘we will make up the time on the journey’. Everyone just laughs. Train falls further and further behind until, at Salisbury, it’s cancelled altogether.

    The trains are scruffy as hell with no sign of investment. The loos are disgusting. They withdrew all refreshments during lockdown and didn’t return them - you can go 4 hours in hot weather but 'nor any drop to drink.’

    And at every single station they blast a full volume message about ‘uniformed and non-uniformed staff patrol our trains. Failure to buy a valid ticket could result in an instant £100 fine and prosecution.’ Followed by an institutional protection message: ‘any abusive behaviour towards a member of of our staff will not be tolerated and will be reported to British Transport Police.’ So you can’t even point out, politely, that their service is shit.

    So it’s another Delay Repay claim. Several trains down and several trains up either side of my one were also cancelled.

    SWR are a godawful mess.
    Like so much of our railway network.
    Like so much of our country.

    Which train were you on? Funny thing is, real time trains doesn't show any Exeter to Waterloo services terminating short at Salisbury yesterday...

    https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/search/detailed/gb-nr:SAL/from/gb-nr:EXD/2024-05-23/0200-0159?stp=WVS&show=all&order=wtt



    Unfortunately, once there are delays on the West of England line, it's very hard to recover the service due to the single line sections.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,926
    Foxy said:

    PP did restrict my account, to the point that I barely use it. I think this was because of doing well on Constituency markets, particularly Scottish ones, in 2015.

    Looking at Bet365 markets by Contituency they have Labour odds on in far too many. Is Reigate or IoW East really right when Lab is favourite?

    Bet365 do seem a good company to me, as ethical as bookies get (not a very high bar) as they pay their CEO a salary, so she pays proper tax, don't operate FOBT as no retail shops and are a big employer in Stoke. Their football odds are good, and their app works smoothly and loads quickly. I have had no problems with them.

    The odds will reflect where the money is going. I expect most people looking at the constituency bets right now are trying to back the longer Labour shots, hoping for a reasonable return on the likely Labour landslide. The value is probably in the surprise Tory defences and/or an overall result where things even up a little.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,192
    This thread about Simon Case’s WhatsApps in govt around Covid time is properly mental.

    https://x.com/jim_reed/status/1793311196218626382?s=61
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    I remember the shock of the 2017 exit poll when it came up CON largest party but no majority! But in hindsight of course it was obvious we had thrown away our lead during the campaign, another week and LAB would have won.
    Interesting aside, I don’t believe that 2024 is an election to lose although that does depend on events to come.

    But there’s a good case for saying, with hindsight, that 1992 and 2019 were the elections to lose?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,926

    The trains bear the name and livery of their former operator: SWR. In reality the franchise was abolished in 2020 and SWR now take a small margin to operationally do exactly what the government tell them.

    The challenge that Labour have isn't that they need to "nationalise" these operators. They're almost entirely run out of the DfT. Their challenge is how to remove the dead hand of the state and free GBR to be state owned but commercially operated like all of the successful "private" operators we have had over the last few decades - SNCF, DB, NS, FS etc
    DB has become almost a national embarrassment for them
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited May 2024
    tlg86 said:

    Which train were you on? Funny thing is, real time trains doesn't show any Exeter to Waterloo services terminating short at Salisbury yesterday...

    https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/search/detailed/gb-nr:SAL/from/gb-nr:EXD/2024-05-23/0200-0159?stp=WVS&show=all&order=wtt



    Unfortunately, once there are delays on the West of England line, it's very hard to recover the service due to the single line sections.
    I love a bit of pedantry and fact-checking ;)

    You’re correct. The 12.25 from EXD It was ‘cancelled’ for various stations, which is what they tend nowadays to do. So they will run it fast from Salisbury, either not stopping at all, or only stopping at Basingstoke, but cancelling all other intermediate stops including Clapham Junction.

    I would show you a screen print of the ‘cancelled’ notices on my phone but it will use up my one picture a day permit ;)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,048

    From a passenger perspective it doesn't matter what causes the delay. They are late, and whether the train broke down / the crew were missing / the rails buckled / signals failed they still get compensation.

    That system needs to stay. "delay attribution" relates to the internal payments due to either operator or infrastructure owner depending on what went wrong. Which involves a vast array of contracts which means contract managers and lawyers and costs. I'd do away with that in a heartbeat - won't affect passengers getting their money back.
    Then you'll get a worse service. Delay attribution works - and I'll give an example why.

    On the network, you get speed restrictions. Many of these are temporary (TSR). Many are permanent (PSR). If you discover a fault, you may be able to safely run a train over it at 20MPH instead of 60MPH. So a temporary restriction is placed on the line.

    In ye olden days, it cost the infrastructure peeps money to fix that TSR. But because there is no real penalty for it, it does not get fixed and becomes permanent - a PSR.

    Under the DA scheme, every train delayed by that PSR costs the infrastructure peeps money - which means it is in their interests to get it fixed. And users get a more reliable railway.

    The same thing happens with operators: if a freight locomotive is unreliable and breaks down, causing loads of delays, the operating department would just shrug. Fixes, or even new locos, cost money. With DA, any delay they cause costs money, and that gives them an incentive to fix the f***ing things.

    DA is vital to a well-run railway. Perhaps you can get the same effected without the lawyers and contracts, but the principle must remain. People calling for it to go are asking for a worse service.

    As mentioned, AIUI BR was bringing in a DA service for exactly this reason. It is vital.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641
    tlg86 said:

    Which train were you on? Funny thing is, real time trains doesn't show any Exeter to Waterloo services terminating short at Salisbury yesterday...

    https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/search/detailed/gb-nr:SAL/from/gb-nr:EXD/2024-05-23/0200-0159?stp=WVS&show=all&order=wtt



    Unfortunately, once there are delays on the West of England line, it's very hard to recover the service due to the single line sections.
    In addition to a massive closure programme between 1964 to 1970, a lot of routes were singled during that period to 'savr money'. The LSWR route between Salisbury and Exeter - a 'main line' until 1963 - was one such affected.

    We have seen some reversal of this eh Chiltern route between Princes Risborough and Banbury, and Oxford to Worcester. It would surely be sensible to extend this to routes such as LSWR as part of a relatively inexpensive rail investment programme.
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    Leon said:

    I’ve woken up with what I believe is now called a snappy rec

    Congratulations, my Lord. Shall I inform her Ladyship?

    No, Perkins, pack a suitcase. We're taking this one to London.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,096
    Heathener said:

    Mind you, yesterday’s excuses were ‘animals on the track’ and ‘landslides'

    A young girl from Durham died in North Yorkshire due to a landslide on a school trip yesterday. Landslides are quite common and unlikely to be an "excuse"
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited May 2024
    The other thing I’d add as someone who has used the SWR (ex SWT) and GWR lines to the west country for 20 years since after Uni days is that SWR is shambolic now compared to pre-pandemic. I know this is subjective, but truly shambolic. They are late so often. The trains are in a shabby, and in some cases disgusting, state, they are very expensive now, and the withdrawal of any refreshments at all for a c. 4 hour journey is imho terrible.

    I like GWR a lot more but it’s a faff from Woking. And their new Hitachi train seats are bizarrely uncomfortable in standard class. There’s a whole ‘thing’ about this.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OhLaEYTvu-A

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qmLFlqCV4po

    GWR first class isn’t too bad. Still doesn’t compare to Norwegian trains imho, or indeed many other parts of the world. I’ve taken some fantastic new trains in Asia e.g. Malaysia.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,467
    Heathener said:

    I love a bit of pedantry and fact-checking ;)

    You’re correct. The 12.25 from EXD It was ‘cancelled’ for various stations, which is what they tend nowadays to do. So they will run it fast from Salisbury, either not stopping at all, or only stopping at Basingstoke, but cancelling all other intermediate stops including Clapham Junction.

    I would show you a screen print of the ‘cancelled’ notices on my phone but it will use up my one picture a day permit ;)
    Ah, fair enough:

    https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:Y00643/2024-05-23/detailed#allox_id=1

    Made up 10 mins from Basingstoke to London, but not sure it's worth it to chuck Woking passengers off at Basingstoke.

    The 159s need replacing. I'd love to get the mark 5s and 68s that TPE have ditched (if the issues can be rectified).
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,859

    If you like massive spending on renewables, then why is it a left wing thing? Conservatives don’t just care about the environment, they are its guardians.
    It may well be that Conservatives are ‘more interested’ in the Environment. However, they can be divided into two, those who own land perceive it as a bounty to be managed and exploited, unsustainably, for profit or for leisure.

    On the other hand many Conservative voters in rural and semi-rural Britain are interested in the Environment from a stewardship perspective. They fail to see why water companies are allowed to fill our rivers with effluent and why builders and farmers should be allowed to destroy the places they go to birdwatch or walk the dog. The latter are currently angry with the party they thought represented them. That’s why the Greens have been cleaning up in local elections in Suffolk, Sussex and Hampshire. But where will those votes go in the GE? Back to the Tories or to the LibDems? That could be the difference between a poor showing for the LibDems and a blowout through the home counties.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,291
    ToryJim said:

    This thread about Simon Case’s WhatsApps in govt around Covid time is properly mental.

    https://x.com/jim_reed/status/1793311196218626382?s=61

    This is a must read. The Conservative Party gave us Boris and he was a disaster, and Sunak not looking great from that either.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited May 2024
    The essential point is one that I totally agree with @Sandpit about, even if we can argue the toss about specifics:

    You need to believe that infrastructure matters for a nation's productivity and wellbeing.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,467

    In addition to a massive closure programme between 1964 to 1970, a lot of routes were singled during that period to 'savr money'. The LSWR route between Salisbury and Exeter - a 'main line' until 1963 - was one such affected.

    We have seen some reversal of this eh Chiltern route between Princes Risborough and Banbury, and Oxford to Worcester. It would surely be sensible to extend this to routes such as LSWR as part of a relatively inexpensive rail investment programme.
    Rumour has it that when the M5 was built, someone from the railway's Western region made sure that the bridge over the Southern West of England line was only wide enough for one track.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,797
    Foxy said:

    Possibly now required to be more balanced as now pre-election, so expect as many jokes about Starmer as Sunak.
    The first change to tonight's HIGNFY has been announced: newshound Amol Rajan has been stood down and replaced by comedian Phil Wang.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,583

    Then you'll get a worse service. Delay attribution works - and I'll give an example why.

    On the network, you get speed restrictions. Many of these are temporary (TSR). Many are permanent (PSR). If you discover a fault, you may be able to safely run a train over it at 20MPH instead of 60MPH. So a temporary restriction is placed on the line.

    In ye olden days, it cost the infrastructure peeps money to fix that TSR. But because there is no real penalty for it, it does not get fixed and becomes permanent - a PSR.

    Under the DA scheme, every train delayed by that PSR costs the infrastructure peeps money - which means it is in their interests to get it fixed. And users get a more reliable railway.

    The same thing happens with operators: if a freight locomotive is unreliable and breaks down, causing loads of delays, the operating department would just shrug. Fixes, or even new locos, cost money. With DA, any delay they cause costs money, and that gives them an incentive to fix the f***ing things.

    DA is vital to a well-run railway. Perhaps you can get the same effected without the lawyers and contracts, but the principle must remain. People calling for it to go are asking for a worse service.

    As mentioned, AIUI BR was bringing in a DA service for exactly this reason. It is vital.
    Its an interesting debate. Nobody is proposing to bring back BR - where the "so what" approach to maintenance appears to have been embedded. I'm proposing commercial businesses. You can have an SLA in place which incentivises performance without needing micro contracts and assessors examining those contracts.

    Logistics works like that. No contract in place on specific trucks or specific timings or specific bits of the set-up. Just an SLA saying do x. Contracts are largely standardised and pretty simple, but there remains a clear incentive for the service provider not to just shrug.

    Contracts are great! But they need to be an agreement as to what will happen, not a makework scheme for lawyers and administrators. We spend so much money as a country with services and receive crap front line provision starved of money. The middle managers and contract lawyers are happy, the passengers and students and patients are not. It needs to stop.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,797

    I remember the shock of the 2017 exit poll when it came up CON largest party but no majority! But in hindsight of course it was obvious we had thrown away our lead during the campaign, another week and LAB would have won.
    If you'd been on pb that night, we'd been tipped off by then-Tory activist @david_herdson that it had all gone pear-shaped for the blue team on the doorstep.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,096
    Heathener said:

    The essential point is one that I totally agree with @Sandpit about, even if we can argue the toss about specifics:

    You need to believe that infrastructure matters for a nation's productivity and wellbeing.

    Absolutely and it is something we are shit at. Too many regulations, too much bureaucracy and too many NIMBYs.

    We need growth, we need to grow, and our crap infrastructure does not help.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,859

    Nobody flies under the radar these days, every account is tracked and labelled. But as you say if you are only betting £10 total a week, that is probably the level they would restrict anyway. The big Leicester win will have been seen as just hitting the lottery, and they probably hope you dump it back over time.
    That’s interesting. I had a Bet365 account for several years. I only really backed horses and it basically ran on a float. I bet on Saturdays, probably £100 or so each week that the jumps were on and I just kept it going. I probably won over a 5 year period but only a tiny percentage on turnover. 0.2% or so, and probably made the profit on the back of the concessions they offered.

    They closed me down eventually, much to my annoyance.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,797
    Sandpit said:

    The estuary airport was in the wrong place, but the sentiment was correct. You actually want to put the main London airport somewhere around Leighton Buzzard, as was a previous proposal from the ‘60s, with a Shanghai-style maglev straight into the city.
    Maglev being another British invention cut off by the Conservative government of the day.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,903
    Heathener said:

    The essential point is one that I totally agree with @Sandpit about, even if we can argue the toss about specifics:

    You need to believe that infrastructure matters for a nation's productivity and wellbeing.

    I frankly find it astounding that anyone can find that contentious. There is no denying that we are seriously short of cash and living substantially beyond our means but if the cost of the NI cut was HS2 it was absolutely not a price worth paying. The focus on keeping consumption and current spending going at the price of long term investment is probably our greatest economic failing because it drives so many others such as low productivity and growth.

    Not sure I see many signs of this improving under Labour but its a large black mark against the current government.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,583
    DavidL said:

    I frankly find it astounding that anyone can find that contentious. There is no denying that we are seriously short of cash and living substantially beyond our means but if the cost of the NI cut was HS2 it was absolutely not a price worth paying. The focus on keeping consumption and current spending going at the price of long term investment is probably our greatest economic failing because it drives so many others such as low productivity and growth.

    Not sure I see many signs of this improving under Labour but its a large black mark against the current government.
    There are some very consistent polls pointing towards a Labour supermajority. "Won't happen" seems to be the consensus, but what if it does?

    The British problem is that we lost track of strategic objectives in the 1970s. It takes a government with vision and absolute freedom to act to do transformative things. Thatcher had both. Blair had the majority and delivered so much detail, but was missing the transformative mission.

    Starmer? His missions suggest he gets it. But in practice I would be astonished if they set out to actually transform the country in the way we need. Sadly.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,903
    ToryJim said:

    No election is good to lose. It is true to say that there are certain periods of time when the conjunction of issues would challenge even the angels. The early 90s was one, the most recent half decade possibly, the mid-70s were definitely almost impossible to deal with as the litter of broken governments of that era shows. I think the Labour government that will almost certainly be elected in July will have a tough time, they won’t necessarily have the party management issues of the Wilson/Callaghan government but the circumstances otherwise have similarities. They definitely inherit a situation the Tories have spectacularly failed to manage, there are definitely evident structural weaknesses in the UK economy and state that are not being sorted, and there is a growing sense that maybe nobody is up to the challenge. I hope that whatever they try works, or at least if it doesn’t work that it doesn’t make matters worse. I’m not going to agree instinctively with them on much but we should hope for good government even when it is not ideologically in tune with us. Wishing failure on the country because your party, or the party you more align with, isn’t in control is a form of treachery that is intolerable.
    Hear hear. I am pessimistic about the incoming Labour government but I genuinely and unequivocally wish them every success. We need it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,255
    Cicero said:

    Skimming the UK newspapers this morning, the situation for the Tories may actually be worse than the polls are showing.

    A country in despair is not exactly fertile ground for a Tory victory, but the Tory Party themselves are also in despair. Sunak has ordered a special electoral operation for which the Party is simply not prepared. The Tories really do seem to have given up, and even the gimmicks and electoral nonsense, such as Tory councillors in hi-vis jackets, is half-hearted, just going-through-the-motions. What comes across is the utterly joyless, misery of the Tories.

    The voters seem to want to put the Tories out of our own misery too, but if that feeling gets going, the bandwagon could genuinely see the Tories wiped out.

    Has Sunak killed the Conservative Party?

    Hopefully
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,797

    Yes. There was a lot of talk about Sunak triggering a GE in response to the party moving against him. I think that has happened:
    Took the cabinet and MPs by surprise
    Party machine not remotely ready
    Electoral strategy (Rwanda) falls apart at first glance as was written for a campaign *after* flights had started
    Scramble to stop MPs retiring all at once and desperate lack of candidates with minimal time to adopt them
    Raging MPs try to complete their putsch but realise they are out of time.

    So congratulations Rishi! You avoided being dumped by the party! I fear the reception from the electorate may be worse. And according to the right wing media he is challenging Sunak to a debate every week? Erm, is he sure? Sunak is brittle and fragile, do you really want him in a debate?
    It is just about possible that Rishi called a general election to avoid being dumped in order to gain, what, three weeks' extra salary, but it is a bit of a stretch for a man richer than Croesus. That said, I can think of no other reason that stands up to scrutiny either (although I note my pb ramblings about American school term dates were echoed by at least one journalist).
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,048
    Leon said:

    Hopefully
    Given you'd want it to be replaced with some anti-woke sh*tstorm of a party, I think I'd stick with wanting a Conservative Party. At least there's a good chance of them returning to sanity eventually - as Labour did from their Corbyn delusions.

    But whatever replaced the Conservatives - e.g. Reform - less so.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,192
    I’m not sure Gordon Brown was this affable and natural when in government. It’s a pity had he been more engaging he would have been heaps more effective and may have had longer at the top.

    https://x.com/scotlandsky/status/1793711084051796154?s=61
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,126
    Sandpit said:

    The whole idea of UBI is that you can get rid of minimum wages and tax credits. If everyone gets paid a £1500 a month, then working for £5 an hour becomes a viable option, rather than the company outsourcing the jobs to Asia.
    That's what I used to think, but I wonder whether you'd want a minimum wage anyway, to encourage businesses to invest in productivity, rather than subsidising cheap labour.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,048

    Its an interesting debate. Nobody is proposing to bring back BR - where the "so what" approach to maintenance appears to have been embedded. I'm proposing commercial businesses. You can have an SLA in place which incentivises performance without needing micro contracts and assessors examining those contracts.

    Logistics works like that. No contract in place on specific trucks or specific timings or specific bits of the set-up. Just an SLA saying do x. Contracts are largely standardised and pretty simple, but there remains a clear incentive for the service provider not to just shrug.

    Contracts are great! But they need to be an agreement as to what will happen, not a makework scheme for lawyers and administrators. We spend so much money as a country with services and receive crap front line provision starved of money. The middle managers and contract lawyers are happy, the passengers and students and patients are not. It needs to stop.
    That doesn't work as the railway network is much more self-contained. If a road's down, generally there's another route available - and they don't control the roads anyway. I've got no problem with the DA system being streamlined, but those who want to get rid of it are being very, very silly.
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586

    It is just about possible that Rishi called a general election to avoid being dumped in order to gain, what, three weeks' extra salary, but it is a bit of a stretch for a man richer than Croesus. That said, I can think of no other reason that stands up to scrutiny either (although I note my pb ramblings about American school term dates were echoed by at least one journalist).
    It's a humiliation thing. Lost a GE looks heaps better on a CV than Turfed out for being, almost unbelievably, worse than Truss
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,903

    There are some very consistent polls pointing towards a Labour supermajority. "Won't happen" seems to be the consensus, but what if it does?

    The British problem is that we lost track of strategic objectives in the 1970s. It takes a government with vision and absolute freedom to act to do transformative things. Thatcher had both. Blair had the majority and delivered so much detail, but was missing the transformative mission.

    Starmer? His missions suggest he gets it. But in practice I would be astonished if they set out to actually transform the country in the way we need. Sadly.
    Super majorities, as you hint at, didn't help Blair address our underlying problems. I do want a government with a comfortable majority because the last thing we need is a repeat of the 2017-19 Parliament where tomorrow fell into the category of long term planning.

    Reeves strikes me as ultra cautious and lacking a bit of vision. I was underwhelmed by her Mais speech which certainly identified many of the problems but completely lacked meaningful solutions. Will she be brave enough to cut current spending to boost investment? I'm not sure, her focus on gimmicky taxes to produce pitiful amounts of additional income to boost spending does not bode well. But we can only hope. The country needs a change of direction.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,048

    There are some very consistent polls pointing towards a Labour supermajority. "Won't happen" seems to be the consensus, but what if it does?

    The British problem is that we lost track of strategic objectives in the 1970s. It takes a government with vision and absolute freedom to act to do transformative things. Thatcher had both. Blair had the majority and delivered so much detail, but was missing the transformative mission.

    Starmer? His missions suggest he gets it. But in practice I would be astonished if they set out to actually transform the country in the way we need. Sadly.
    The same fundamental problems will exist for Starmer as they do for the current government. Being braver might help, but these issues are immensely complex and are surrounded by marshy swamps filled with alligators.

    My own view is that the best answers do not lie in ideology, but in cold, hard pragmatism. But that doesn't get the base of a political party excited.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,378
    Cicero said:

    The voters seem to want to put the Tories out of our own misery too, but if that feeling gets going, the bandwagon could genuinely see the Tories wiped out.

    Has Sunak killed the Conservative Party?

    I have seen it suggested that Richi's best electoral strategy would be to say to voters "I hate this job. Only your vote can keep me in it"
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,378
    Heathener said:

    About the only thing I agreed with Boris about was his estuary London airport.

    I know the cost was phenomenal but it was visionary.

    In the same way as Icarus' plan to fly was visionary...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,322
    edited May 2024

    The same fundamental problems will exist for Starmer as they do for the current government. Being braver might help, but these issues are immensely complex and are surrounded by marshy swamps filled with alligators.

    My own view is that the best answers do not lie in ideology, but in cold, hard pragmatism. But that doesn't get the base of a political party excited.
    Starmer should benefit from reasonable economic growth to the end of the decade. But, the challenges are, as you state.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,378
    @AllieRenison

    Redwood’s standing down statement is as terse and obnoxious as his political style

    “I have other things I wish to do” #sniff

    Nothing to do with the polls then…
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,319

    It may well be that Conservatives are ‘more interested’ in the Environment. However, they can be divided into two, those who own land perceive it as a bounty to be managed and exploited, unsustainably, for profit or for leisure.

    On the other hand many Conservative voters in rural and semi-rural Britain are interested in the Environment from a stewardship perspective. They fail to see why water companies are allowed to fill our rivers with effluent and why builders and farmers should be allowed to destroy the places they go to birdwatch or walk the dog. The latter are currently angry with the party they thought represented them. That’s why the Greens have been cleaning up in local elections in Suffolk, Sussex and Hampshire. But where will those votes go in the GE? Back to the Tories or to the LibDems? That could be the difference between a poor showing for the LibDems and a blowout through the home counties.
    There is certainly a chance that the Lib Dems do really well. Across the home counties and north Wessex in places like Surrey and Gloucestershire the Lib Dems seem to be making some fairly spectacular progress. I see Redwood is leaving Wokingham, something of a straw in the wind?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,730

    That massive salary for Coates doesn't come from UK punters, they operate a very dodgy business facilitating Chinese gamblers. It makes up a huge proportion of their income and why they are doing much better than the other UK betting groups.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/inside-the-world-of-illegal-online-gambling-in-china-2022-9

    Now this isn't as dodgy as those gambling sites you have never heard of on the front of EPL team shirts, and if you visit them they don't want your business. That is total different orders of magnitude dodgy, with organised criminals, slave labour, the whole 9 yards.
    As I said, an "ethical bookie" is a very low bar!

    Coates does pay UK tax at 45% on the vast majority of her 9 figure salary, and also a lot on her dividends, at least I think so. Far better than some CEOs with their offshore or other dodgy creative accounting.

    There are worse bookies.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,146
    DavidL said:

    I frankly find it astounding that anyone can find that contentious. There is no denying that we are seriously short of cash and living substantially beyond our means but if the cost of the NI cut was HS2 it was absolutely not a price worth paying. The focus on keeping consumption and current spending going at the price of long term investment is probably our greatest economic failing because it drives so many others such as low productivity and growth.

    Not sure I see many signs of this improving under Labour but its a large black mark against the current government.
    And it's been a British disease to favour spending now over investment for the future, basically forever.

    The gerontocracy that follows from the current Conservative voters coalition really doesn't help. Not because all pensioners are selfish gits, but all the little biases against spending with a ten year payoff add up.

    One of the reasons for thinking that Things Can Only Get (a little bit) Better is that Labour have a set of voters more likely to see themselves benefiting from longer term projects. As opposed to my declining father's line about how X (whether carpets or furniture or anything else) would see him out.

    But even "it's hard to see how they can be as bad as this" is probably enough.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,192
    Scott_xP said:

    @AllieRenison

    Redwood’s standing down statement is as terse and obnoxious as his political style

    “I have other things I wish to do” #sniff

    Nothing to do with the polls then…

    In fairness he’s been an MP for 37 years and will be 73 by polling day. Not wanting to stand again is understandable, and he can be as peremptory as he likes.
  • sbjme19sbjme19 Posts: 194
    ToryJim said:

    John Redwood is quitting Parliament, hopefully he gets to live long and prosper elsewhere.

    They're going down like ninepins, perhaps a few more today because there's not much time to get new candidates before nominations close. It's actually a bit of a mess but I get the impression Rishi wasn't too fussed about this issue.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,859

    The same fundamental problems will exist for Starmer as they do for the current government. Being braver might help, but these issues are immensely complex and are surrounded by marshy swamps filled with alligators.

    My own view is that the best answers do not lie in ideology, but in cold, hard pragmatism. But that doesn't get the base of a political party excited.
    Certainly didn’t get the current shower excited did it? They much preferred unicorns and magical thinking.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,870

    There are some very consistent polls pointing towards a Labour supermajority. "Won't happen" seems to be the consensus, but what if it does?

    The British problem is that we lost track of strategic objectives in the 1970s. It takes a government with vision and absolute freedom to act to do transformative things. Thatcher had both. Blair had the majority and delivered so much detail, but was missing the transformative mission.

    Starmer? His missions suggest he gets it. But in practice I would be astonished if they set out to actually transform the country in the way we need. Sadly.
    Good morning

    There is a very real possibility the present conservative party will be utterly humiliated on the 4th July and frankly they have nobody else to blame than themselves from the disaster of Truss (maybe the biggest gift to an opposition in recent history) to the internal factions openly attacking each other, and then Sunak upsetting their apple cart by calling (rightly) a snap election

    I have no idea what happens to them next but Starmer as PM from 5th July will be the beginning of a very difficult political period but let's see just how he progresses as he will undoubtedly enjoy a honeymoon period

    Jeremy Corbyn standing as an independent will hardly have any effect on Starmer
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    edited May 2024

    The same fundamental problems will exist for Starmer as they do for the current government. Being braver might help, but these issues are immensely complex and are surrounded by marshy swamps filled with alligators.

    My own view is that the best answers do not lie in ideology, but in cold, hard pragmatism. But that doesn't get the base of a political party excited.
    The only answer is for the country to pay for the infrastructure and public services we need.

    In the short term that means higher taxation. Yes we can strive make public services more efficient, reduce welfare spend round the margins*, try to reduce tax avoidance but these all offer negligible gains. We have to pay our way and realise that better infrastructure and better public services leads to higher productivity and growth.

    Whether Labour will be brave enough to tackle this I don't know.

    (*Welfare could in fairness be cut but top of the list is the Triple Lock and that now seems to have achieved 'untouchable' status. We could also reduce disability benefits by tackling the causes: e.g. better mental health services; tougher action on junk food; legalising, regulating and taxing recreational drugs; etc.)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Jezza confirms he is standing as Independent

    His membership of Labour is automatically terminated
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,192
    sbjme19 said:

    They're going down like ninepins, perhaps a few more today because there's not much time to get new candidates before nominations close. It's actually a bit of a mess but I get the impression Rishi wasn't too fussed about this issue.
    I don’t think it’s a huge problem, there’s no shortage of self-flagellatory activists and entitled SPADs who’ll be busily harnessing themselves into their parachutes.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155

    Good morning

    There is a very real possibility the present conservative party will be utterly humiliated on the 4th July and frankly they have nobody else to blame than themselves from the disaster of Truss (maybe the biggest gift to an opposition in recent history) to the internal factions openly attacking each other, and then Sunak upsetting their apple cart by calling (rightly) a snap election

    I have no idea what happens to them next but Starmer as PM from 5th July will be the beginning of a very difficult political period but let's see just how he progresses as he will undoubtedly enjoy a honeymoon period

    Jeremy Corbyn standing as an independent will hardly have any effect on Starmer
    All true Big_G. Corbyn kicked out of Labour is likely to have a positive effect on their chances overall, I'd say.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,378

    Jezza confirms he is standing as Independent

    His membership of Labour is automatically terminated

    Starmer just gets luckier every day
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    ToryJim said:

    In fairness he’s been an MP for 37 years and will be 73 by polling day. Not wanting to stand again is understandable, and he can be as peremptory as he likes.
    Good riddance to the old dinosaur!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766

    And it's been a British disease to favour spending now over investment for the future, basically forever.

    The gerontocracy that follows from the current Conservative voters coalition really doesn't help. Not because all pensioners are selfish gits, but all the little biases against spending with a ten year payoff add up.

    One of the reasons for thinking that Things Can Only Get (a little bit) Better is that Labour have a set of voters more likely to see themselves benefiting from longer term projects. As opposed to my declining father's line about how X (whether carpets or furniture or anything else) would see him out.

    But even "it's hard to see how they can be as bad as this" is probably enough.
    Labour's age cohort will want money now. Junior Doctors, Trade Unions pet projects. Infrastructure will go to the back of the queue as ever.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,238
    edited May 2024
    OT. What a journey ex Thatcherite Peter Oborne has been on. A remarkable piece of journalism from the West Bank where he has been embedded for the last month.

    https://www.doubledown.news/watch/2024/may/17/israel-secret-war
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