One point on which almost the entirely of PB has been wrong (so far). Sunak and the Tories are not going all out negative and culture war, or all out tax giveaways. It's quite an old fashioned appeal to stick with the incumbent for fear of the opposition who might mess things up. It's 1997 Major.
No withdrawal from the ECHR. No slashing of inheritance tax. No confected row with the EU. Not even a rehashing of Starmer defending terrorists, yet.
Its like they have given up, called a GE on a whim and don't really have a detailed plan of attack.
They are mentally defeated already. Or it's some genius rope-a-dope strategy.
Or have checked out, have something else lined up and so it doesn't really matter one way or another (particularly as it isn't Jezza on the ballot, its another technocrat to deal with all the shit coming down the pipe).
That is the key - most MPs are not as inherently partisan as online activists are. Not that they don't want to win or prevent their opponents winning, but do even they fear a Starmer premiership? And even if they do, as much as a Corbyn one?
Add the sheer tiredness and internal division the party is exuding and motivation is hard even if they try.
One point on which almost the entirely of PB has been wrong (so far). Sunak and the Tories are not going all out negative and culture war, or all out tax giveaways. It's quite an old fashioned appeal to stick with the incumbent for fear of the opposition who might mess things up. It's 1997 Major.
No withdrawal from the ECHR. No slashing of inheritance tax. No confected row with the EU. Not even a rehashing of Starmer defending terrorists, yet.
Its like they have given up, called a GE on a whim and don't really have a detailed plan of attack.
They are mentally defeated already. Or it's some genius rope-a-dope strategy.
It's only 31 hours in! All that's happened is Sunak got wet and Farage ran away
Interesting that Labour have gone for the one word "Change" as their slogan, putting an end to the recent three words "get Brexit done", "For the many" etc
I didn’t think much of that at all. The quick reeling off of the things not quite as good in comparison, Housing crisis, prices, feeling worse off, NHS, that bit was okay, but bit with the Tory leaders that followed didn’t work at all. The voice used as voice over didn’t work, just sounded like Channel 4 news.
Not very good overall imo
The point being made is the Tories have had 14 years and 5 prime ministers and nothing to show for it. Things have got a lot worse in fact. I think the video made that point very effectively.
The gap is why should we believe Labour is any better. Is Starmer actually change or is he just like the five predecessors promising change but just the same old?
It's not clear to me that things have got worse, or that if they have they have done so more than other comparable countries.
It is clear however that Britain during the last 14 years has got a lot more left wing. State spending up, state interference in people's lives up, identity politics on the rise, immigration a free for all, massive spending on renewables (I favour this last one, actually).
If you like massive spending on renewables, then why is it a left wing thing? Conservatives don’t just care about the environment, they are its guardians.
"A nine-year-old boy died from sepsis after doctors and nurses missed a "significant" GP note, an inquest heard.
Dylan Cope, from Newport was taken to the Grange Hospital in Cwmbran, Torfaen, on 6 December 2022 after his GP wrote “query appendicitis”, but this note was not read.
The senior doctor on shift that night said GP referrals were not being printed off and put into patients' notes because of how busy the department was.
The court also heard how Dylan’s father should have been directed to a 999 call handler, but was not due to a mistake."
The only saving grace here is that multiple independent failures were required for this awful outcome. But they happened. The whole thing is a bit more nuanced, and is worfh a read.
Every anecdote I hear from my friends who studied medicine sounds not dissimilar to the causes of this. Baffling (a) how badly the massive increase in funding is being spent and (b) the complete lack of effort to resolve the training place (post F2) jam is - for that's the main push factor among my friends, who are all at that stage.
This is where (at the risk of summoning Leon again) I think the LLM's would be really make a difference. Being able to quickly surface 'oh, that's a bit odd' for 2p compared to some overworked nurse/gp/whatever pouring over their 50th patient notes of the day.
I know there are lots of papers showing LLMs are already doing well on medical stuff - but just that routine helping hand - for pennies. In 10 years I hope there aren't a lot of thesis explaining how many people could still be alive for the fear of adopting it.
Alternatively just hire some of the much bemoaned paper pushers. No qualified doctor should spend more than a fraction of their time filling forms and writing notes. Easy way to significantly increase overall work performed relative to cost.
One point on which almost the entirely of PB has been wrong (so far). Sunak and the Tories are not going all out negative and culture war, or all out tax giveaways. It's quite an old fashioned appeal to stick with the incumbent for fear of the opposition who might mess things up. It's 1997 Major.
No withdrawal from the ECHR. No slashing of inheritance tax. No confected row with the EU. Not even a rehashing of Starmer defending terrorists, yet.
Its like they have given up, called a GE on a whim and don't really have a detailed plan of attack.
They are mentally defeated already. Or it's some genius rope-a-dope strategy.
It's only 31 hours in! All that's happened is Sunak got wet and Farage ran away
i predict it will be a super boring campaign. Sunak will some drop some minor bollocks as he tries to do normal with invited public, twitter / ScottP will get very excited by them but public less so, Starmer will stay on (very limited) message with very coached answers to gotcha questions like what is a woman and future of Brexit. It will be a boreathon for 6 weeks as nobody promises anything and says very little.
"Breaking: Keir Starmer has agreed to take part in two head-to-head election TV debates with Rishi Sunak on the BBC and ITV.
Labour sources: "Labour will not be tearing up the format established in previous elections just to suit this week’s whims of the Tory Party." PM was pushing for weekly debates.
Well despite current events the war has been grim for Russia. The casualty rate looks appalling. He is probably just keep everyone sufficiently off balance to avoid a coup.
One point on which almost the entirely of PB has been wrong (so far). Sunak and the Tories are not going all out negative and culture war, or all out tax giveaways. It's quite an old fashioned appeal to stick with the incumbent for fear of the opposition who might mess things up. It's 1997 Major.
No withdrawal from the ECHR. No slashing of inheritance tax. No confected row with the EU. Not even a rehashing of Starmer defending terrorists, yet.
One warning on this. Nowadays, the most negative stuff can be put out on targeted social media through astroturf groups, and that way the party behind it, doesn't suffer the negative consequence of going negative.
And it also means, if you aren't the intended target of the message, you probably won't see it.
Yes, a fair warning. But you generally expect them to say at least some of that in the media too. Let’s all keep our eyes out. I’m not on Facebook though so shielded from the boomer targeting.
Ken Loach and Mike Leigh have resigned as patrons of the Phoenix cinema in London in protest over the venue hosting an Israeli state-sponsored film festival.
The cinema – one of the UK’s oldest – is holding a private screening of Supernova: The Music Festival Massacre, as part of the international Seret film festival on Thursday night.
The documentary tells the story of the attack by Hamas on the Nova music festival on 7 October through survivor testimony.
This has to be one of the worst starts to a political campaign in history. How does it feel compared to 1997?
I was a lot greener, but that felt optimistic. I was an instinctive little Tory boy, but one still felt Blair would be a positive change. That notion was dispelled fairly fast once he took power. It doesn't feel like that to me at the moment particularly.
The weird thing is the UK economy was actually starting to do well by 1997, after the total chaos of the early 90s. So there was a real optimism in the air that just isn't there now. By 1997 it felt like the first day of Spring, whereas economically speaking it feels like we're in the January of a grim winter that's been the January of a grim winter for at least the last three years. With little hope of anything getting better.
They say it's darkest before the dawn and all that, but as others have pointed out the sense of optimism that was there in '97 just isn't there today. It's less "things can only get better" and "well if the other lot get in, things can hardly get worse".
I think the underlying position that Britain finds itself in today is much weaker than in 1997, and so it's not just the point of the economic cycle that the country is in. Things are genuinely and generally worse.
Most notably, so many assets have been sold to foreign investors over the last 27 years, which haven't been balanced by British investments abroad, that every year there is a net flow of money out of the country to those foreign investors. The consequence of this is to create an economic headwind that the country has to overcome to make any forward progress.
The public debt is also much larger. Public sector net debt stood at 45% of GDP at the end of March 1997, and is now 97.9% (or 89.9% excluding the Bank of England).
In 1997 the UK had a trade surplus of more than £5bn. In 2023 the UK had a trade deficit of more than £33bn.
This is not a direction of travel that can continue indefinitely. The Truss Experience shows that Britain is edging closer to the precipice. In 2010 the Tories said that this was something they were going to turn around. And they have failed.
One point on which almost the entirely of PB has been wrong (so far). Sunak and the Tories are not going all out negative and culture war, or all out tax giveaways. It's quite an old fashioned appeal to stick with the incumbent for fear of the opposition who might mess things up. It's 1997 Major.
No withdrawal from the ECHR. No slashing of inheritance tax. No confected row with the EU. Not even a rehashing of Starmer defending terrorists, yet.
Its like they have given up, called a GE on a whim and don't really have a detailed plan of attack.
They are mentally defeated already. Or it's some genius rope-a-dope strategy.
It's only 31 hours in! All that's happened is Sunak got wet and Farage ran away
i predict it will be a super boring campaign. Sunak will some drop some minor bollocks as he tries to do normal with invited public, twitter / ScottP will get very excited by them but public less so, Starmer will stay on (very limited) message with very coached answers to gotcha questions like what is a woman and future of Brexit. It will be a boreathon for 6 weeks as nobody promises anything and says very little.
Ken Loach and Mike Leigh have resigned as patrons of the Phoenix cinema in London in protest over the venue hosting an Israeli state-sponsored film festival.
The cinema – one of the UK’s oldest – is holding a private screening of Supernova: The Music Festival Massacre, as part of the international Seret film festival on Thursday night.
The documentary tells the story of the attack by Hamas on the Nova music festival on 7 October through survivor testimony.
ROFL, the Tories on the Daily Mail advocating for the continuing of the energy price cap. A policy floated by an Ed Miliband (whatever happened to him?) in 2015 and was called "communist".
I didn’t think much of that at all. The quick reeling off of the things not quite as good in comparison, Housing crisis, prices, feeling worse off, NHS, that bit was okay, but bit with the Tory leaders that followed didn’t work at all. The voice used as voice over didn’t work, just sounded like Channel 4 news.
Not very good overall imo
The point being made is the Tories have had 14 years and 5 prime ministers and nothing to show for it. Things have got a lot worse in fact. I think the video made that point very effectively.
The gap is why should we believe Labour is any better. Is Starmer actually change or is he just like the five predecessors promising change but just the same old?
It's not clear to me that things have got worse, or that if they have they have done so more than other comparable countries.
It is clear however that Britain during the last 14 years has got a lot more left wing. State spending up, state interference in people's lives up, identity politics on the rise, immigration a free for all, massive spending on renewables (I favour this last one, actually).
If you like massive spending on renewables, then why is it a left wing thing? Conservatives don’t just care about the environment, they are its guardians.
While we're at it, some of the other things on the list: State spending: right wingers are often very in favour of increased state spending in some sectors: policing, defence, and to some extent state pensions (although that's also a leftist issue). Crony capitalism deserves an honourable mention, although that's more a practice than a platform. State interference in lives: the right have become very exercised in recent times about what is being taught in schools, full on moral panic mode at times. Shades of Section 28. Identity politics is a cross-politics phenomenon. Right-wing nationalism is in that category, religious conservatism is too. How often have you heard "we're a Christian country"? Immigration, in recent times, has been associated with the economic right and opposed by the far left. It still is to some extent. In recent years, the right and reactionary right has turned against it, but even then that's partially based on nationalist sentiments. Environmentalism is also cross-politics, although it comes in distinct flavours. Left-green tends to be around how the environment affects the precarious and vulnerable, whereas right-green focuses on conservation.
I don't get why the Tories can't just accept that some things ought to be state-owned and just leave it. E.g. the railways, water. Just accept it and don't get involved.
One point on which almost the entirely of PB has been wrong (so far). Sunak and the Tories are not going all out negative and culture war, or all out tax giveaways. It's quite an old fashioned appeal to stick with the incumbent for fear of the opposition who might mess things up. It's 1997 Major.
No withdrawal from the ECHR. No slashing of inheritance tax. No confected row with the EU. Not even a rehashing of Starmer defending terrorists, yet.
Its like they have given up, called a GE on a whim and don't really have a detailed plan of attack.
They are mentally defeated already. Or it's some genius rope-a-dope strategy.
It's only 31 hours in! All that's happened is Sunak got wet and Farage ran away
Thoughts and prayers with the dry cleaners in both cases.
This has to be one of the worst starts to a political campaign in history. How does it feel compared to 1997?
I was a lot greener, but that felt optimistic. I was an instinctive little Tory boy, but one still felt Blair would be a positive change. That notion was dispelled fairly fast once he took power. It doesn't feel like that to me at the moment particularly.
The weird thing is the UK economy was actually starting to do well by 1997, after the total chaos of the early 90s. So there was a real optimism in the air that just isn't there now. By 1997 it felt like the first day of Spring, whereas economically speaking it feels like we're in the January of a grim winter that's been the January of a grim winter for at least the last three years. With little hope of anything getting better.
They say it's darkest before the dawn and all that, but as others have pointed out the sense of optimism that was there in '97 just isn't there today. It's less "things can only get better" and "well if the other lot get in, things can hardly get worse".
I think the underlying position that Britain finds itself in today is much weaker than in 1997, and so it's not just the point of the economic cycle that the country is in. Things are genuinely and generally worse.
Most notably, so many assets have been sold to foreign investors over the last 27 years, which haven't been balanced by British investments abroad, that every year there is a net flow of money out of the country to those foreign investors. The consequence of this is to create an economic headwind that the country has to overcome to make any forward progress.
The public debt is also much larger. Public sector net debt stood at 45% of GDP at the end of March 1997, and is now 97.9% (or 89.9% excluding the Bank of England).
In 1997 the UK had a trade surplus of more than £5bn. In 2023 the UK had a trade deficit of more than £33bn.
This is not a direction of travel that can continue indefinitely. The Truss Experience shows that Britain is edging closer to the precipice. In 2010 the Tories said that this was something they were going to turn around. And they have failed.
So yes, it feels like it's something that's longer than a typical economic cycle. And not just due to the GFC, but for the reasons you've discussed above.
The economy feels broken in a way that goes beyond boom and bust cycles and into underlying structural problems.
I'm not sure Labour have any answers to this either, tbh. But it's time to let someone else have a go at fixing things.
Interesting that Labour have gone for the one word "Change" as their slogan, putting an end to the recent three words "get Brexit done", "For the many" etc
Should have gone with ch-ch-changes, with the Bowie song as the D-Ream of the campaign.
3 syllables and something to appeal to the GenX and younger Boomers.
This has to be one of the worst starts to a political campaign in history. How does it feel compared to 1997?
I was a lot greener, but that felt optimistic. I was an instinctive little Tory boy, but one still felt Blair would be a positive change. That notion was dispelled fairly fast once he took power. It doesn't feel like that to me at the moment particularly.
The weird thing is the UK economy was actually starting to do well by 1997, after the total chaos of the early 90s. So there was a real optimism in the air that just isn't there now. By 1997 it felt like the first day of Spring, whereas economically speaking it feels like we're in the January of a grim winter that's been the January of a grim winter for at least the last three years. With little hope of anything getting better.
They say it's darkest before the dawn and all that, but as others have pointed out the sense of optimism that was there in '97 just isn't there today. It's less "things can only get better" and "well if the other lot get in, things can hardly get worse".
I think the underlying position that Britain finds itself in today is much weaker than in 1997, and so it's not just the point of the economic cycle that the country is in. Things are genuinely and generally worse.
Most notably, so many assets have been sold to foreign investors over the last 27 years, which haven't been balanced by British investments abroad, that every year there is a net flow of money out of the country to those foreign investors. The consequence of this is to create an economic headwind that the country has to overcome to make any forward progress.
The public debt is also much larger. Public sector net debt stood at 45% of GDP at the end of March 1997, and is now 97.9% (or 89.9% excluding the Bank of England).
In 1997 the UK had a trade surplus of more than £5bn. In 2023 the UK had a trade deficit of more than £33bn.
This is not a direction of travel that can continue indefinitely. The Truss Experience shows that Britain is edging closer to the precipice. In 2010 the Tories said that this was something they were going to turn around. And they have failed.
Possibly 50% of that is demographics. In 1997 we had a historically very low dependency ratio and a large and growing working age population. Now we have a rapidly shrinking working age cohort and exponentially increasing retired and dependent population, even after net immigration flows.
Another 30% is likely the continued hangover from the 2008 financial crisis, which really screwed Western economies, few more so than our own financial services heavy one.
Then 10% the combined wounds of Covid and the Ukraine war. Leaving 10% down to bad governance and bad decisions on our international trade posture.
The West has had a shitty time since 2008. I’d love to say things can only get better but our demographic trends say nope. At best we can erase some of the 10% bad governance discount and hope the slow healing of post-financial crisis and Covid wounds offsets the accelerating drag effect of an ageing and nectrotic population.
Incidentally, there are constituency markets for a whole bunch of constituencies up on Bet365. I have had a few nibbles on SLAB and also on the Tories on the IOW East.
Ken Loach and Mike Leigh have resigned as patrons of the Phoenix cinema in London in protest over the venue hosting an Israeli state-sponsored film festival.
The cinema – one of the UK’s oldest – is holding a private screening of Supernova: The Music Festival Massacre, as part of the international Seret film festival on Thursday night.
The documentary tells the story of the attack by Hamas on the Nova music festival on 7 October through survivor testimony.
Thought experiment. If someone resigned as a patron of a cinema because they disagreed with a film festival funded by the Chinese state, citing concerns that the cinema would become "silent accomplices to the violence inflicted on the [Uyghers]" would your reaction be similar? Would they be sinophobes?
If the Uighurs had launched a 2 day orgy of mass murder and rape on the Chinese population a few months ago including slaughtering dozens at a music festival, and were still holding dozens of Chinese hostages, then I imagine there might be some sympathy.
The Tories should squeeze that Reform figure over the campaign with Farage not returning and immigration down on last year today
If my election polling computer modelling was telling me Tory or Labour was going to get sub 20%, i would be turning it off and on again. Sunak / Tories are very unpopular, but they still get roughly 30% come what may, same with unpopular Labour politicians.
The Tories should squeeze that Reform figure over the campaign with Farage not returning and immigration down on last year today
I suspect that half the Reform vote will got Conservative, and another quarter will melt away. That gets the gap down to... checks... 19 percentage points.
I didn’t think much of that at all. The quick reeling off of the things not quite as good in comparison, Housing crisis, prices, feeling worse off, NHS, that bit was okay, but bit with the Tory leaders that followed didn’t work at all. The voice used as voice over didn’t work, just sounded like Channel 4 news.
Not very good overall imo
The point being made is the Tories have had 14 years and 5 prime ministers and nothing to show for it. Things have got a lot worse in fact. I think the video made that point very effectively.
The gap is why should we believe Labour is any better. Is Starmer actually change or is he just like the five predecessors promising change but just the same old?
It's not clear to me that things have got worse, or that if they have they have done so more than other comparable countries.
It is clear however that Britain during the last 14 years has got a lot more left wing. State spending up, state interference in people's lives up, identity politics on the rise, immigration a free for all, massive spending on renewables (I favour this last one, actually).
If you like massive spending on renewables, then why is it a left wing thing? Conservatives don’t just care about the environment, they are its guardians.
While we're at it, some of the other things on the list: State spending: right wingers are often very in favour of increased state spending in some sectors: policing, defence, and to some extent state pensions (although that's also a leftist issue). Crony capitalism deserves an honourable mention, although that's more a practice than a platform. State interference in lives: the right have become very exercised in recent times about what is being taught in schools, full on moral panic mode at times. Shades of Section 28. Identity politics is a cross-politics phenomenon. Right-wing nationalism is in that category, religious conservatism is too. How often have you heard "we're a Christian country"? Immigration, in recent times, has been associated with the economic right and opposed by the far left. It still is to some extent. In recent years, the right and reactionary right has turned against it, but even then that's partially based on nationalist sentiments. Environmentalism is also cross-politics, although it comes in distinct flavours. Left-green tends to be around how the environment affects the precarious and vulnerable, whereas right-green focuses on conservation.
I don't get why the Tories can't just accept that some things ought to be state-owned and just leave it. E.g. the railways, water. Just accept it and don't get involved.
I think many do think that. Lots of Tories support the nationalisation of both those utilities. Were they renationalised under Labour, I doubt a future Tory government would seek to reprivatise them.
Incidentally, there are constituency markets for a whole bunch of constituencies up on Bet365. I have had a few nibbles on SLAB and also on the Tories on the IOW East.
More to look through over the weekend.
You still have an account on bet365 that can bet more than 1p? In my experience if you vaguely look like you know what you are doing you are restricted to piddly bets in no time.on bet365.
I didn’t think much of that at all. The quick reeling off of the things not quite as good in comparison, Housing crisis, prices, feeling worse off, NHS, that bit was okay, but bit with the Tory leaders that followed didn’t work at all. The voice used as voice over didn’t work, just sounded like Channel 4 news.
Not very good overall imo
The point being made is the Tories have had 14 years and 5 prime ministers and nothing to show for it. Things have got a lot worse in fact. I think the video made that point very effectively.
The gap is why should we believe Labour is any better. Is Starmer actually change or is he just like the five predecessors promising change but just the same old?
It's not clear to me that things have got worse, or that if they have they have done so more than other comparable countries.
It is clear however that Britain during the last 14 years has got a lot more left wing. State spending up, state interference in people's lives up, identity politics on the rise, immigration a free for all, massive spending on renewables (I favour this last one, actually).
If you like massive spending on renewables, then why is it a left wing thing? Conservatives don’t just care about the environment, they are its guardians.
While we're at it, some of the other things on the list: State spending: right wingers are often very in favour of increased state spending in some sectors: policing, defence, and to some extent state pensions (although that's also a leftist issue). Crony capitalism deserves an honourable mention, although that's more a practice than a platform. State interference in lives: the right have become very exercised in recent times about what is being taught in schools, full on moral panic mode at times. Shades of Section 28. Identity politics is a cross-politics phenomenon. Right-wing nationalism is in that category, religious conservatism is too. How often have you heard "we're a Christian country"? Immigration, in recent times, has been associated with the economic right and opposed by the far left. It still is to some extent. In recent years, the right and reactionary right has turned against it, but even then that's partially based on nationalist sentiments. Environmentalism is also cross-politics, although it comes in distinct flavours. Left-green tends to be around how the environment affects the precarious and vulnerable, whereas right-green focuses on conservation.
I don't get why the Tories can't just accept that some things ought to be state-owned and just leave it. E.g. the railways, water. Just accept it and don't get involved.
I think many do think that. Lots of Tories support the nationalisation of both those utilities. Were they renationalised under Labour, I doubt a future Tory government would seek to reprivatise them.
I am a right wing leaning person and I support the nationalisation of rail and water
I didn’t think much of that at all. The quick reeling off of the things not quite as good in comparison, Housing crisis, prices, feeling worse off, NHS, that bit was okay, but bit with the Tory leaders that followed didn’t work at all. The voice used as voice over didn’t work, just sounded like Channel 4 news.
Not very good overall imo
The point being made is the Tories have had 14 years and 5 prime ministers and nothing to show for it. Things have got a lot worse in fact. I think the video made that point very effectively.
The gap is why should we believe Labour is any better. Is Starmer actually change or is he just like the five predecessors promising change but just the same old?
It's not clear to me that things have got worse, or that if they have they have done so more than other comparable countries.
It is clear however that Britain during the last 14 years has got a lot more left wing. State spending up, state interference in people's lives up, identity politics on the rise, immigration a free for all, massive spending on renewables (I favour this last one, actually).
If you like massive spending on renewables, then why is it a left wing thing? Conservatives don’t just care about the environment, they are its guardians.
While we're at it, some of the other things on the list: State spending: right wingers are often very in favour of increased state spending in some sectors: policing, defence, and to some extent state pensions (although that's also a leftist issue). Crony capitalism deserves an honourable mention, although that's more a practice than a platform. State interference in lives: the right have become very exercised in recent times about what is being taught in schools, full on moral panic mode at times. Shades of Section 28. Identity politics is a cross-politics phenomenon. Right-wing nationalism is in that category, religious conservatism is too. How often have you heard "we're a Christian country"? Immigration, in recent times, has been associated with the economic right and opposed by the far left. It still is to some extent. In recent years, the right and reactionary right has turned against it, but even then that's partially based on nationalist sentiments. Environmentalism is also cross-politics, although it comes in distinct flavours. Left-green tends to be around how the environment affects the precarious and vulnerable, whereas right-green focuses on conservation.
Woah. What a load of drivel. “religious conservatism is too. How often have you heard "we're a Christian country"?” If you think your fishing, prepare to lose your rod, river bank, and yourself - I’m gonna bite.
You hear “we are a Christian Country” because we ARE a Christian Country. Things do not always get better. Human life is dependent upon forces greater than our own selves. There will never be an end to human pain and suffering, but it can be made less. This is the cornerstone principles our Great Country is founded upon - and they come from Christianity. Because what matters most to people is their family, relationships, friendships, work as a source of creative value, a cultural inheritance that gives meaning to life, and for some faith. What holds a society together is reciprocity - do not do to others what you would not want done to yourself, straight from the Christian Bible. The liberalism of the last thirty years has not been progressive, it’s taken us back to the cave man age of cannibalism. To turn the dial back in the right direction needs Conservative hands on the lever. Go back to remembering about protecting nature and human value from the commodification of capitalism and the transactional culture of the market. Becuase Democracy in UK has become an oligarchy, the liberal left in control of culture and the liberal right in control of the economy. This is New Labour, the is Starmer’s 2024 manifesto, Labour and the Liberals now share a liberal contractual view of society, in place of mutual loyalties binding human beings into families, groups and nations, they each now agree on the individual and the state, the individual and the market. Neither Labour or Liberals speak for the families and neighbourhoods we are born into, nor about our cultural and religious inheritances - but those cultural and religious inheritance are fundamental bonds that hold individuals together in a society. Since the eighties and nineties, public policy has not been used enough to strengthen families, communities, and the nation: the associations that make individuals happy, safe and free. Given the unique threats of our age we need more Conservatism not less.
Now you understand why this General Election is important, and 200 Conservative seat losses a disaster for the country.
I didn’t think much of that at all. The quick reeling off of the things not quite as good in comparison, Housing crisis, prices, feeling worse off, NHS, that bit was okay, but bit with the Tory leaders that followed didn’t work at all. The voice used as voice over didn’t work, just sounded like Channel 4 news.
Not very good overall imo
The point being made is the Tories have had 14 years and 5 prime ministers and nothing to show for it. Things have got a lot worse in fact. I think the video made that point very effectively.
The gap is why should we believe Labour is any better. Is Starmer actually change or is he just like the five predecessors promising change but just the same old?
It's not clear to me that things have got worse, or that if they have they have done so more than other comparable countries.
It is clear however that Britain during the last 14 years has got a lot more left wing. State spending up, state interference in people's lives up, identity politics on the rise, immigration a free for all, massive spending on renewables (I favour this last one, actually).
If you like massive spending on renewables, then why is it a left wing thing? Conservatives don’t just care about the environment, they are its guardians.
While we're at it, some of the other things on the list: State spending: right wingers are often very in favour of increased state spending in some sectors: policing, defence, and to some extent state pensions (although that's also a leftist issue). Crony capitalism deserves an honourable mention, although that's more a practice than a platform. State interference in lives: the right have become very exercised in recent times about what is being taught in schools, full on moral panic mode at times. Shades of Section 28. Identity politics is a cross-politics phenomenon. Right-wing nationalism is in that category, religious conservatism is too. How often have you heard "we're a Christian country"? Immigration, in recent times, has been associated with the economic right and opposed by the far left. It still is to some extent. In recent years, the right and reactionary right has turned against it, but even then that's partially based on nationalist sentiments. Environmentalism is also cross-politics, although it comes in distinct flavours. Left-green tends to be around how the environment affects the precarious and vulnerable, whereas right-green focuses on conservation.
Woah. What a load of drivel. “religious conservatism is too. How often have you heard "we're a Christian country"?” If you think your fishing, prepare to lose your rod, river bank, and yourself - I’m gonna bite.
You hear “we are a Christian Country” because we ARE a Christian Country. Things do not always get better. Human life is dependent upon forces greater than our own selves. There will never be an end to human pain and suffering, but it can be made less. This is the cornerstone principles our Great Country is founded upon - and they come from Christianity. Because what matters most to people is their family, relationships, friendships, work as a source of creative value, a cultural inheritance that gives meaning to life, and for some faith. What holds a society together is reciprocity - do not do to others what you would not want done to yourself, straight from the Christian Bible. The liberalism of the last thirty years has not been progressive, it’s taken us back to the cave man age of cannibalism. To turn the dial back in the right direction needs Conservative hands on the lever. Go back to remembering about protecting nature and human value from the commodification of capitalism and the transactional culture of the market. Becuase Democracy in UK has become an oligarchy, the liberal left in control of culture and the liberal right in control of the economy. This is New Labour, the is Starmer’s 2024 manifesto, Labour and the Liberals now share a liberal contractual view of society, in place of mutual loyalties binding human beings into families, groups and nations, they each now agree on the individual and the state, the individual and the market. Neither Labour or Liberals speak for the families and neighbourhoods we are born into, nor about our cultural and religious inheritances - but those cultural and religious inheritance are fundamental bonds that hold individuals together in a society. Since the eighties and nineties, public policy has not been used enough to strengthen families, communities, and the nation: the associations that make individuals happy, safe and free. Given the unique threats of our age we need more Conservatism not less.
Now you understand why this General Election is important, and 200 Conservative seat losses a disaster for the country.
Ken Loach and Mike Leigh have resigned as patrons of the Phoenix cinema in London in protest over the venue hosting an Israeli state-sponsored film festival.
The cinema – one of the UK’s oldest – is holding a private screening of Supernova: The Music Festival Massacre, as part of the international Seret film festival on Thursday night.
The documentary tells the story of the attack by Hamas on the Nova music festival on 7 October through survivor testimony.
I didn’t think much of that at all. The quick reeling off of the things not quite as good in comparison, Housing crisis, prices, feeling worse off, NHS, that bit was okay, but bit with the Tory leaders that followed didn’t work at all. The voice used as voice over didn’t work, just sounded like Channel 4 news.
Not very good overall imo
The point being made is the Tories have had 14 years and 5 prime ministers and nothing to show for it. Things have got a lot worse in fact. I think the video made that point very effectively.
The gap is why should we believe Labour is any better. Is Starmer actually change or is he just like the five predecessors promising change but just the same old?
It's not clear to me that things have got worse, or that if they have they have done so more than other comparable countries.
It is clear however that Britain during the last 14 years has got a lot more left wing. State spending up, state interference in people's lives up, identity politics on the rise, immigration a free for all, massive spending on renewables (I favour this last one, actually).
So over 14 years Britain has "got a lot more left wing" but "it's not clear...that things have got worse." Great. No need to worry about the incoming government being left-wing then.
Ken Loach and Mike Leigh have resigned as patrons of the Phoenix cinema in London in protest over the venue hosting an Israeli state-sponsored film festival.
The cinema – one of the UK’s oldest – is holding a private screening of Supernova: The Music Festival Massacre, as part of the international Seret film festival on Thursday night.
The documentary tells the story of the attack by Hamas on the Nova music festival on 7 October through survivor testimony.
One rather depressing sub-story in the election announcement is the way Cameron just aborted the visit to Albania where he was due to accorded something akin to a state visit.
Apparently it has gone down like a cup of cold sick.
Was it really necessary for Cameron to return so that Cabinet could be issued a fait accompli (Sunak had already visited the King)? It honestly feels like British statecraft has simply collapsed.
I didn’t think much of that at all. The quick reeling off of the things not quite as good in comparison, Housing crisis, prices, feeling worse off, NHS, that bit was okay, but bit with the Tory leaders that followed didn’t work at all. The voice used as voice over didn’t work, just sounded like Channel 4 news.
Not very good overall imo
The point being made is the Tories have had 14 years and 5 prime ministers and nothing to show for it. Things have got a lot worse in fact. I think the video made that point very effectively.
The gap is why should we believe Labour is any better. Is Starmer actually change or is he just like the five predecessors promising change but just the same old?
It's not clear to me that things have got worse, or that if they have they have done so more than other comparable countries.
It is clear however that Britain during the last 14 years has got a lot more left wing. State spending up, state interference in people's lives up, identity politics on the rise, immigration a free for all, massive spending on renewables (I favour this last one, actually).
If you like massive spending on renewables, then why is it a left wing thing? Conservatives don’t just care about the environment, they are its guardians.
While we're at it, some of the other things on the list: State spending: right wingers are often very in favour of increased state spending in some sectors: policing, defence, and to some extent state pensions (although that's also a leftist issue). Crony capitalism deserves an honourable mention, although that's more a practice than a platform. State interference in lives: the right have become very exercised in recent times about what is being taught in schools, full on moral panic mode at times. Shades of Section 28. Identity politics is a cross-politics phenomenon. Right-wing nationalism is in that category, religious conservatism is too. How often have you heard "we're a Christian country"? Immigration, in recent times, has been associated with the economic right and opposed by the far left. It still is to some extent. In recent years, the right and reactionary right has turned against it, but even then that's partially based on nationalist sentiments. Environmentalism is also cross-politics, although it comes in distinct flavours. Left-green tends to be around how the environment affects the precarious and vulnerable, whereas right-green focuses on conservation.
Woah. What a load of drivel. “religious conservatism is too. How often have you heard "we're a Christian country"?” If you think your fishing, prepare to lose your rod, river bank, and yourself - I’m gonna bite.
You hear “we are a Christian Country” because we ARE a Christian Country. Things do not always get better. Human life is dependent upon forces greater than our own selves. There will never be an end to human pain and suffering, but it can be made less. This is the cornerstone principles our Great Country is founded upon - and they come from Christianity. Because what matters most to people is their family, relationships, friendships, work as a source of creative value, a cultural inheritance that gives meaning to life, and for some faith. What holds a society together is reciprocity - do not do to others what you would not want done to yourself, straight from the Christian Bible. The liberalism of the last thirty years has not been progressive, it’s taken us back to the cave man age of cannibalism. To turn the dial back in the right direction needs Conservative hands on the lever. Go back to remembering about protecting nature and human value from the commodification of capitalism and the transactional culture of the market. Becuase Democracy in UK has become an oligarchy, the liberal left in control of culture and the liberal right in control of the economy. This is New Labour, the is Starmer’s 2024 manifesto, Labour and the Liberals now share a liberal contractual view of society, in place of mutual loyalties binding human beings into families, groups and nations, they each now agree on the individual and the state, the individual and the market. Neither Labour or Liberals speak for the families and neighbourhoods we are born into, nor about our cultural and religious inheritances - but those cultural and religious inheritance are fundamental bonds that hold individuals together in a society. Since the eighties and nineties, public policy has not been used enough to strengthen families, communities, and the nation: the associations that make individuals happy, safe and free. Given the unique threats of our age we need more Conservatism not less.
I was trying to recall what this mad shit reminded me of, then it came to me.
Ken Loach and Mike Leigh have resigned as patrons of the Phoenix cinema in London in protest over the venue hosting an Israeli state-sponsored film festival.
The cinema – one of the UK’s oldest – is holding a private screening of Supernova: The Music Festival Massacre, as part of the international Seret film festival on Thursday night.
The documentary tells the story of the attack by Hamas on the Nova music festival on 7 October through survivor testimony.
I just got pissed on good quality champagne provided by a well known upmarket tour operator at a function at the "Elvis Experience" museum at the Arches by the Shard
I mention this not to boast of my high falutin' social connexions, I was probably the most famous person there, it was that E list, but because of the quality of booze provided. These things, I have discovered, are a good test of how the travel biz is doing, and how therefore the wider economy is doing
The company was launching a whole new raft of holidays, on a new continent. The booze was therefore very good and free flowing, they told me business was great
Despite everything, economically things are deffo picking up, a natural vigour and confidence may finally be returning
I hesitate to say London is back, but Travel is definitely back. I have commissions stretching to Christmas, all over the world, and no problem finding people to send me, even for the humble Knappers' Gazette
From the BBC's newspaper roundup, travel is indeed back:-
"The general ejection" is the headline on the front of the Daily Star. It reports holiday bookings are up 57% as people try to avoid "six weeks of fibs and bluster" in the run up to the election. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cekk00jxnnjo
Sunak had the advantage over everyone else of knowing that he was calling the election, so you might think he would have been a bit better prepared for doing so
Like making sure he had candidates in every seat, for example...
NEW
Conservative HQ have emailed asking for candidates in almost 100 seats
When candidates ask when the deadline is, they have been told it’s 48 hours, according to 2 I’ve spoken to
Sunak had the advantage over everyone else of knowing that he was calling the election, so you might think he would have been a bit better prepared for doing so
Like making sure he had candidates in every seat, for example...
NEW
Conservative HQ have emailed asking for candidates in almost 100 seats
When candidates ask when the deadline is, they have been told it’s 48 hours, according to 2 I’ve spoken to
Incidentally, there are constituency markets for a whole bunch of constituencies up on Bet365. I have had a few nibbles on SLAB and also on the Tories on the IOW East.
More to look through over the weekend.
You still have an account on bet365 that can bet more than 1p? In my experience if you vaguely look like you know what you are doing you are restricted to piddly bets in no time.on bet365.
The consensus on Betfair forums seems to be that Bet365 are the best bookmaker, and also the slowest to ban or restrict punters.
I just got pissed on good quality champagne provided by a well known upmarket tour operator at a function at the "Elvis Experience" museum at the Arches by the Shard
I mention this not to boast of my high falutin' social connexions, I was probably the most famous person there, it was that E list, but because of the quality of booze provided. These things, I have discovered, are a good test of how the travel biz is doing, and how therefore the wider economy is doing
The company was launching a whole new raft of holidays, on a new continent. The booze was therefore very good and free flowing, they told me business was great
Despite everything, economically things are deffo picking up, a natural vigour and confidence may finally be returning
I hesitate to say London is back, but Travel is definitely back. I have commissions stretching to Christmas, all over the world, and no problem finding people to send me, even for the humble Knappers' Gazette
From the BBC's newspaper roundup, travel is indeed back:-
"The general ejection" is the headline on the front of the Daily Star. It reports holiday bookings are up 57% as people try to avoid "six weeks of fibs and bluster" in the run up to the election. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cekk00jxnnjo
If people don't like the politicians on offer, why don't they stand for election themselves. Anyone can put themselves forward as a candidate. Hardly costs anything and getting the signatures is easy.
Incidentally, there are constituency markets for a whole bunch of constituencies up on Bet365. I have had a few nibbles on SLAB and also on the Tories on the IOW East.
More to look through over the weekend.
You still have an account on bet365 that can bet more than 1p? In my experience if you vaguely look like you know what you are doing you are restricted to piddly bets in no time.on bet365.
The consensus on Betfair forums seems to be that Bet365 are the best bookmaker, and also the slowest to ban or restrict punters.
I don't know what they are smoking. Within the professional betting community I know, Bet365 are known as the absolute worst for restricting an account that looks like it might be run by somebody who isn't a total moron.
The slowest to ban are none of the known names like Bet365 or Ladbrokes etc, its the "sharp" bookies like Pinnacle.
Savanta have 44% saying Rishis launch in the rain went badly and..... um 35% think it went well
See the public saw Rishi Sunak as the embodiment of the greatest Doctor ever, that's a win for Rishi.
Tenant is a fecking arse. Get him off the thread
That’s the Doctor.
He's not MY doctor. He's no Eccleston
i like them all
I thought Peter Capaldi was a bit disappointing though
Whittaker was terrible but that may be more down to the scripts.
Whittaker's gabbling made her speech hard for my foreign chums to follow, although her stories were poor, and the set-up where the lady doctor trailed around her "fam" was vaguely misogynist.
Tennant was the best actor to play the Doctor.
Trivia: Capaldi is the only Doctor to have won an Oscar (as producer, not actor).
And if RTD is so bloody clever, how come the credits misnamed the character as Doctor Who, and the titles show the Tardis careering around like the starship Enterprise? And why do they keep redesigning the daleks and Tardis? And breathe!
I know Tennant Ten is technically the best, but I still have a soft spot for Matt Smith (from The Eleventh Hour to The Angels Take Manhattan(, and Peter Capaldi (from The Magician's Apprentice to Twice Upon a Time).
Every decision taken during the Chibnall era was wrong. It's pointless pointing to a specific one, since it was just one large steaming pile of wrong. Jodie's interpretation was wrong. The redesigned Daleks were wrong. The fam were wrong. The CyberTimeLords were wrong. Flux was an enormous serialised wrong. The costume was wrong. The Sunny Delight Master was wrong. The Timeless Child made me cry with the wrongness. It was just rubbish from day one to day last.
Sounds as though I saved myself a deal of grief by not watching any of that series after a single episode, and mainlinjng Kdrama instead. Anyone watched The 8 Show yet ?
Incidentally, there are constituency markets for a whole bunch of constituencies up on Bet365. I have had a few nibbles on SLAB and also on the Tories on the IOW East.
More to look through over the weekend.
You still have an account on bet365 that can bet more than 1p? In my experience if you vaguely look like you know what you are doing you are restricted to piddly bets in no time.on bet365.
The consensus on Betfair forums seems to be that Bet365 are the best bookmaker, and also the slowest to ban or restrict punters.
I don't know what they are smoking. Within the professional betting community I know, Bet365 are known as the absolute worst for restricting an account that looks like it might be run by somebody who isn't a total moron.
The slowest to ban are none of the known names like Bet365 or Ladbrokes etc, its the "sharp" bookies like Pinnacle.
As a very amateur punter, I have been barred or restricted to pennies by BetVictor, Ladbrokes and Corals but then I've never opened an account with most books.
I wonder how many hf the BLM protests which turned violent actually started like this ?
A Fort Lauderdale cop reported an attack by BLM protesters. Now, the story’s changing https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/broward/article288642955.html It’s been nearly four years since police shot tear gas and rubber bullets at protesters as they left a previously peaceful rally held in downtown Fort Lauderdale in the wake of the killing of George Floyd, fracturing the eye socket of LaToya Ratlieff.
Now, new evidence in a civil rights lawsuit filed by Ratlieff appears to undermine the department’s official justification for using chemical agents and so-called “less lethal” munitions against protesters that day.
Although there had been no violent incidents all afternoon, police said their heavy-handed tactics that evening were a response to an officer “screaming for help” over the radio as protesters attacked her unmarked police car, pounding on windows and jumping on the vehicle.
During a deposition taken under oath, the officer who made the initial distress call admitted she never actually saw anyone damaging her vehicle or jumping on the trunk as described in her incident report. And a forensic analysis of synchronized video and audio from the scene shows no evidence that protesters were surrounding the vehicle, as the officer reported as she radioed for back up...
One point on which almost the entirely of PB has been wrong (so far). Sunak and the Tories are not going all out negative and culture war, or all out tax giveaways. It's quite an old fashioned appeal to stick with the incumbent for fear of the opposition who might mess things up. It's 1997 Major.
No withdrawal from the ECHR. No slashing of inheritance tax. No confected row with the EU. Not even a rehashing of Starmer defending terrorists, yet.
Its like they have given up, called a GE on a whim and don't really have a detailed plan of attack.
They are mentally defeated already. Or it's some genius rope-a-dope strategy.
It's only 31 hours in! All that's happened is Sunak got wet and Farage ran away
i predict it will be a super boring campaign. Sunak will some drop some minor bollocks as he tries to do normal with invited public, twitter / ScottP will get very excited by them but public less so, Starmer will stay on (very limited) message with very coached answers to gotcha questions like what is a woman and future of Brexit. It will be a boreathon for 6 weeks as nobody promises anything and says very little.
Most campaigns are, changing very little, and enlightening us even less. It will be like five weeks of people trying to find something interesting to say about cricket, with an exciting finish tacked on the end.
One point on which almost the entirely of PB has been wrong (so far). Sunak and the Tories are not going all out negative and culture war, or all out tax giveaways. It's quite an old fashioned appeal to stick with the incumbent for fear of the opposition who might mess things up. It's 1997 Major.
No withdrawal from the ECHR. No slashing of inheritance tax. No confected row with the EU. Not even a rehashing of Starmer defending terrorists, yet.
Its like they have given up, called a GE on a whim and don't really have a detailed plan of attack.
They are mentally defeated already. Or it's some genius rope-a-dope strategy.
It's only 31 hours in! All that's happened is Sunak got wet and Farage ran away
i predict it will be a super boring campaign. Sunak will some drop some minor bollocks as he tries to do normal with invited public, twitter / ScottP will get very excited by them but public less so, Starmer will stay on (very limited) message with very coached answers to gotcha questions like what is a woman and future of Brexit. It will be a boreathon for 6 weeks as nobody promises anything and says very little.
Most campaigns are, changing very little, and enlightening us even less. It will be like five weeks of people trying to find something interesting to say about cricket, with an exciting finish tacked on the end.
"Will you be watching much of the football, then ?"
My Party has made some policy announcements today. Green Party Policies.
• Renationalising our NHS • £70bn Wealth Tax • 500,000 Council Homes • £16 per hour min wage • Universal Basic Income • Rent Controls • Abolishing Tuition Fees • Recognition of Palestine • Free Secondary School Meals • Axe Two-Child Cap
Top Party and most people won't have a clue what they stand for.
This is a good illustration as to why whilst I like Greens in local power due to their detailed policies, nationally I think they can only be called loopy.
My Party has made some policy announcements today. Green Party Policies.
• Renationalising our NHS • £70bn Wealth Tax • 500,000 Council Homes • £16 per hour min wage • Universal Basic Income • Rent Controls • Abolishing Tuition Fees • Recognition of Palestine • Free Secondary School Meals • Axe Two-Child Cap
Top Party and most people won't have a clue what they stand for.
This is a good illustration as to why whilst I like Greens in local power due to their detailed policies, nationally I think they can only be called loopy.
Add up the numbers on that.
Where will they build 500,000 council homes given they don’t really like, at a local,level, any development going on.
I don't know which markets you would expect to give a toss about a sks for Sunak swap. It's usual to point out in this context that the FTSE 100 is global anyway. This is just the guardian calming fears no one had in the first place
My Party has made some policy announcements today. Green Party Policies.
• Renationalising our NHS • £70bn Wealth Tax • 500,000 Council Homes • £16 per hour min wage • Universal Basic Income • Rent Controls • Abolishing Tuition Fees • Recognition of Palestine • Free Secondary School Meals • Axe Two-Child Cap
Top Party and most people won't have a clue what they stand for.
This is a good illustration as to why whilst I like Greens in local power due to their detailed policies, nationally I think they can only be called loopy.
Add up the numbers on that.
The UBI and the £16 minimum wage are contradictory.
Over 2% of prospective voters turned away too, including some rather sad examples in the text.
Implications for turnout markets, but also a serious question as to whether this is damaging democracy to tackle a vanishingly rare crime of vote fraud.
I am not sure that we can compare these ethnicity figures with the national figures. The areas voting this time were disproportionately multi ethnic in places such as London, Midlands and North, so likely to be more ethnically diverse than the total UK population.
WHICH PARKWAY? THERE ARE SEVERAL. A PARKWAY STATION IS A STATION CONSTRUCTED OUT OF THE WAY SO CARS CAN DRIVE TO IT FROM TOWN INSTEAD OF DRIVING INTO TOWN AND HENCE AVOIDING CONGESTION.
I DON'T UNDERSTAND. I CAN THINK OF SEVERAL. BRISTOL PARKWAY? HORWICH PARKWAY? ALFRETON AND MANSFIELD PARKWAY? [Not sure that one still exists.]. WHICH PARKWAY? AND WHAT IS THE RELEVANCE OF THE LINK?
It's a forthcoming Disney documentary about Camden Town, Which is the location of THE ONLY PARKWAY WORTH TALKING ABOUT
Except maybe Bodmin Parkway, as it is so weird and remote
I'd forgotten about Bodmin. I picked an in-law up from there once. I forget now which one. In fact,, come to think of it, I have been to parkways Bodmin, Horwich, Luton Airport AND and Bristol. FOUR PARKWAYS. Can any pb-er beat that?
Rugby, Warwick, Worcestershire ... not that I have been to them, but those need to be added to the list.
Good, good, keep em coming...
'Worcestershire Parkway' is vague. Suggests near but not in Worcestershire.
Five! I've been to five! I can't believe I forgot Liverpool South Parkway.
Just found this handy list on Wikipedia. Though I only count stations which actually call themselves '...parkway'.
LibDem seats are too high. Not *wildly* too high, but too high nonetheless.
I am not a spread bettor, the downside is too much for me. I had a spread markets one once but traded out and slept better. One concern is on liquidity.
So, take the LD spread. Its very unlikely that LDs will go below 10, and 15 would be a realistic minimum, so the maximum win is 22 times the stake. On the other side a 1997 style result could lose a similar sum. A Blue Wall blowout with collapsing Tory vote and LDs having a good election could conceivably reach 100 seats. Unlikely but possible. That would be 60 times the stake. The risks are just too asymmetrical for me.
The Tories have given up. Hearing astonishing things in places like Surrey. Feels like this could be an election where the old rules get junked.
The Conservatives have somehow managed to piss off absolutely everyone to the point you're left wondering who their natural constituency is.
If you're an oldie, you probably don't like the way you can't get a GP appointment or a hip replacement without going private (or waiting til your leg falls off). Having to be bank of mum and dad for grown up kids in their 30s and 40s who are struggling. Money in savings accounts eroded by cost of living crisis, affecting less savvy pensioners too.
Young-ish? Housing costs, spiralling rents, can't afford kids, zero job stability, lost opportunities to leave due to Brexit, too. Student loans following RPI which has shafted some. Leasehold trap has shafted first time buyers.
Working age entering middle age? Insane childcare costs, wages failing to keep up with inflation, mortgage costs doubling. Plus huge numbers of middle class professionals getting laid off in the last year.
Everyone - country feels like it's falling apart, schools literally falling apart, sewage being dumped into rivers, cost of sticking the heating on or doing a weekly shop has doubled. Life's little luxuries like a pint and a meal out with friends becoming unaffordable for many now. And the Conservatives droning on and on about endless culture war crap like Rwanda, trans and bashing disabled people on benefits, when most people are just struggling to survive.
Will Labour be significantly better? Maybe not. But it feels hard for even the staunchest Conservative supporter to justify giving this lot another 5 years in government - they're out of ideas and need a long period in opposition to figure out why they've managed to alienate most demographics across the country.
My Party has made some policy announcements today. Green Party Policies.
• Renationalising our NHS • £70bn Wealth Tax • 500,000 Council Homes • £16 per hour min wage • Universal Basic Income • Rent Controls • Abolishing Tuition Fees • Recognition of Palestine • Free Secondary School Meals • Axe Two-Child Cap
Top Party and most people won't have a clue what they stand for.
This is a good illustration as to why whilst I like Greens in local power due to their detailed policies, nationally I think they can only be called loopy.
Add up the numbers on that.
Where will they build 500,000 council homes given they don’t really like, at a local,level, any development going on.
Palestine again !
Is your second sentence meant as an answer to the first?
Taking a more fine grained look housebuilders seem to have liked the prospect of an election, Pennon and Drax fell off a cliff for presumably political reasons
Ken Loach and Mike Leigh have resigned as patrons of the Phoenix cinema in London in protest over the venue hosting an Israeli state-sponsored film festival.
The cinema – one of the UK’s oldest – is holding a private screening of Supernova: The Music Festival Massacre, as part of the international Seret film festival on Thursday night.
The documentary tells the story of the attack by Hamas on the Nova music festival on 7 October through survivor testimony.
This has to be one of the worst starts to a political campaign in history. How does it feel compared to 1997?
I was a lot greener, but that felt optimistic. I was an instinctive little Tory boy, but one still felt Blair would be a positive change. That notion was dispelled fairly fast once he took power. It doesn't feel like that to me at the moment particularly.
The weird thing is the UK economy was actually starting to do well by 1997, after the total chaos of the early 90s. So there was a real optimism in the air that just isn't there now. By 1997 it felt like the first day of Spring, whereas economically speaking it feels like we're in the January of a grim winter that's been the January of a grim winter for at least the last three years. With little hope of anything getting better.
They say it's darkest before the dawn and all that, but as others have pointed out the sense of optimism that was there in '97 just isn't there today. It's less "things can only get better" and "well if the other lot get in, things can hardly get worse".
I think the underlying position that Britain finds itself in today is much weaker than in 1997, and so it's not just the point of the economic cycle that the country is in. Things are genuinely and generally worse.
Most notably, so many assets have been sold to foreign investors over the last 27 years, which haven't been balanced by British investments abroad, that every year there is a net flow of money out of the country to those foreign investors. The consequence of this is to create an economic headwind that the country has to overcome to make any forward progress.
The public debt is also much larger. Public sector net debt stood at 45% of GDP at the end of March 1997, and is now 97.9% (or 89.9% excluding the Bank of England).
In 1997 the UK had a trade surplus of more than £5bn. In 2023 the UK had a trade deficit of more than £33bn.
This is not a direction of travel that can continue indefinitely. The Truss Experience shows that Britain is edging closer to the precipice. In 2010 the Tories said that this was something they were going to turn around. And they have failed.
My Party has made some policy announcements today. Green Party Policies.
• Renationalising our NHS • £70bn Wealth Tax • 500,000 Council Homes • £16 per hour min wage • Universal Basic Income • Rent Controls • Abolishing Tuition Fees • Recognition of Palestine • Free Secondary School Meals • Axe Two-Child Cap
Top Party and most people won't have a clue what they stand for.
This is a good illustration as to why whilst I like Greens in local power due to their detailed policies, nationally I think they can only be called loopy.
Add up the numbers on that.
Where will they build 500,000 council homes given they don’t really like, at a local,level, any development going on.
Palestine again !
Is your second sentence meant as an answer to the first?
My Party has made some policy announcements today. Green Party Policies.
• Renationalising our NHS • £70bn Wealth Tax • 500,000 Council Homes • £16 per hour min wage • Universal Basic Income • Rent Controls • Abolishing Tuition Fees • Recognition of Palestine • Free Secondary School Meals • Axe Two-Child Cap
Top Party and most people won't have a clue what they stand for.
This is a good illustration as to why whilst I like Greens in local power due to their detailed policies, nationally I think they can only be called loopy.
Add up the numbers on that.
The UBI and the £16 minimum wage are contradictory.
I wouldn't worry too much about their policies. It's not as if the Greens will be forming a government.
The Nationalalists are a bit different, but the role of Green, Reform, WPB and even LD is to shift opinion within Labour or Conservative rather than implement it themselves, at least for this election. Hence they can propose radical policies.
The Greens are more than BJOs list, which he has cherrypicked for Corbynite policies, leaving aside green issues.
Incidentally, there are constituency markets for a whole bunch of constituencies up on Bet365. I have had a few nibbles on SLAB and also on the Tories on the IOW East.
More to look through over the weekend.
You still have an account on bet365 that can bet more than 1p? In my experience if you vaguely look like you know what you are doing you are restricted to piddly bets in no time.on bet365.
The consensus on Betfair forums seems to be that Bet365 are the best bookmaker, and also the slowest to ban or restrict punters.
I don't know what they are smoking. Within the professional betting community I know, Bet365 are known as the absolute worst for restricting an account that looks like it might be run by somebody who isn't a total moron.
The slowest to ban are none of the known names like Bet365 or Ladbrokes etc, its the "sharp" bookies like Pinnacle.
I bet almost exclusively on football and politics, and have accounts with Betfair, Smarkets, Bet365, Ladbrokes, Paddypower, Skybet, and William Hill. The only one to ever limit me to tiny stakes has been PP.
This has to be one of the worst starts to a political campaign in history. How does it feel compared to 1997?
I was a lot greener, but that felt optimistic. I was an instinctive little Tory boy, but one still felt Blair would be a positive change. That notion was dispelled fairly fast once he took power. It doesn't feel like that to me at the moment particularly.
The weird thing is the UK economy was actually starting to do well by 1997, after the total chaos of the early 90s. So there was a real optimism in the air that just isn't there now. By 1997 it felt like the first day of Spring, whereas economically speaking it feels like we're in the January of a grim winter that's been the January of a grim winter for at least the last three years. With little hope of anything getting better.
They say it's darkest before the dawn and all that, but as others have pointed out the sense of optimism that was there in '97 just isn't there today. It's less "things can only get better" and "well if the other lot get in, things can hardly get worse".
I think the underlying position that Britain finds itself in today is much weaker than in 1997, and so it's not just the point of the economic cycle that the country is in. Things are genuinely and generally worse.
Most notably, so many assets have been sold to foreign investors over the last 27 years, which haven't been balanced by British investments abroad, that every year there is a net flow of money out of the country to those foreign investors. The consequence of this is to create an economic headwind that the country has to overcome to make any forward progress.
The public debt is also much larger. Public sector net debt stood at 45% of GDP at the end of March 1997, and is now 97.9% (or 89.9% excluding the Bank of England).
In 1997 the UK had a trade surplus of more than £5bn. In 2023 the UK had a trade deficit of more than £33bn.
This is not a direction of travel that can continue indefinitely. The Truss Experience shows that Britain is edging closer to the precipice. In 2010 the Tories said that this was something they were going to turn around. And they have failed.
Another really excellent post
pb at its best
@LostPassword 's point is describing the "platform decay" (better known as "enshittification") of the United Kingdom
My Party has made some policy announcements today. Green Party Policies.
• Renationalising our NHS • £70bn Wealth Tax • 500,000 Council Homes • £16 per hour min wage • Universal Basic Income • Rent Controls • Abolishing Tuition Fees • Recognition of Palestine • Free Secondary School Meals • Axe Two-Child Cap
Top Party and most people won't have a clue what they stand for.
This is a good illustration as to why whilst I like Greens in local power due to their detailed policies, nationally I think they can only be called loopy.
Add up the numbers on that.
The UBI and the £16 minimum wage are contradictory.
I wouldn't worry too much about their policies. It's not as if the Greens will be forming a government.
The Nationalalists are a bit different, but the role of Green, Reform, WPB and even LD is to shift opinion within Labour or Conservative rather than implement it themselves, at least for this election. Hence they can propose radical policies.
The Greens are more than BJOs list, which he has cherrypicked for Corbynite policies, leaving aside green issues.
I feel that overall values and views are important.
The party has balance problems nationally imo - it's not so long since they were sympathetic to homeopathy iirc, though the one that sticks in my mind was Jenny Jones comparing the Met to the Syrian Secret Police (around the time of the Menezes case again iirc).
I wonder if the Greens will be targeting Ashfield?
@MoonRabbit , @wooliedyed , I need to talk to you about your posts in this thread describing the emergence of mode effects. I've just woken up with ache and am a bit woozy, so cannot focus right niw, so it will have to be later this weeekend. This post is meant to remind me. Thank you.
One point on which almost the entirely of PB has been wrong (so far). Sunak and the Tories are not going all out negative and culture war, or all out tax giveaways. It's quite an old fashioned appeal to stick with the incumbent for fear of the opposition who might mess things up. It's 1997 Major.
No withdrawal from the ECHR. No slashing of inheritance tax. No confected row with the EU. Not even a rehashing of Starmer defending terrorists, yet.
Its like they have given up, called a GE on a whim and don't really have a detailed plan of attack.
They are mentally defeated already. Or it's some genius rope-a-dope strategy.
It's only 31 hours in! All that's happened is Sunak got wet and Farage ran away
i predict it will be a super boring campaign. Sunak will some drop some minor bollocks as he tries to do normal with invited public, twitter / ScottP will get very excited by them but public less so, Starmer will stay on (very limited) message with very coached answers to gotcha questions like what is a woman and future of Brexit. It will be a boreathon for 6 weeks as nobody promises anything and says very little.
Most campaigns are, changing very little, and enlightening us even less. It will be like five weeks of people trying to find something interesting to say about cricket, with an exciting finish tacked on the end.
You should watch a bit of the men's Indian Premier League, which is about to reach its climax. Day after day of packed out stadiums, some gripping encounters, and all wrapped up inside 4 hours. The fervour is incredible: it’s almost like a religion.
The 2nd semi-final qualifier is on this afternoon and the final is on Sunday. Worth a peek.
I genuinely fear for the County and even 50-over formats when you have such a pull with the 20-20. Dull it is not.
Kate Ashbrook, the General Secetary of the Open Spaces Society, on doing her annual Path Check of Public Footpaths in her area, and reporting problems. Important, unsung work.
I have recently taken on my home parish of Turville for path checking for the Ramblers, in addition to Piddington and Wheeler End. The plan is to walk every path in the parish at least once a year and to report any problems to Buckinghamshire County Council, the highway authority. I normally do my path checking in late summer, but this year I had completed Turville by the end of April. It is a nifty occupation for lockdown and I highly recommend it.
Incidentally, there are constituency markets for a whole bunch of constituencies up on Bet365. I have had a few nibbles on SLAB and also on the Tories on the IOW East.
More to look through over the weekend.
You still have an account on bet365 that can bet more than 1p? In my experience if you vaguely look like you know what you are doing you are restricted to piddly bets in no time.on bet365.
The consensus on Betfair forums seems to be that Bet365 are the best bookmaker, and also the slowest to ban or restrict punters.
I don't know what they are smoking. Within the professional betting community I know, Bet365 are known as the absolute worst for restricting an account that looks like it might be run by somebody who isn't a total moron.
The slowest to ban are none of the known names like Bet365 or Ladbrokes etc, its the "sharp" bookies like Pinnacle.
I bet almost exclusively on football and politics, and have accounts with Betfair, Smarkets, Bet365, Ladbrokes, Paddypower, Skybet, and William Hill. The only one to ever limit me to tiny stakes has been PP.
Well I answer is quite obvious. Betting on football is a massive mugs game, the market is super efficient if you want to get any real money on. Tony Bloom is widely regarded as one of the top football bettors in the world, employs a huge team of math / comp sci PhDs to model the games, and only able to beat specifically Asian Handicap market for an ROI of < 2%.
Incidentally, there are constituency markets for a whole bunch of constituencies up on Bet365. I have had a few nibbles on SLAB and also on the Tories on the IOW East.
More to look through over the weekend.
You still have an account on bet365 that can bet more than 1p? In my experience if you vaguely look like you know what you are doing you are restricted to piddly bets in no time.on bet365.
The consensus on Betfair forums seems to be that Bet365 are the best bookmaker, and also the slowest to ban or restrict punters.
I don't know what they are smoking. Within the professional betting community I know, Bet365 are known as the absolute worst for restricting an account that looks like it might be run by somebody who isn't a total moron.
The slowest to ban are none of the known names like Bet365 or Ladbrokes etc, its the "sharp" bookies like Pinnacle.
The larger bookies have a massive amount of analytics running on their database, and can see really quickly when any individual starts making money from them. Four-figure bets are basically not allowed any more if you’ve won one at odds against, and a couple of friends in the UK say they’ve started going into random shops to place bets because of the online profiling shutting them down.
The bookies want you sitting in the pub betting on your phone, on one of the many poor-odds accumulators they advertise on the football matches. They have way more interest in the Euros than the election.
Incidentally, there are constituency markets for a whole bunch of constituencies up on Bet365. I have had a few nibbles on SLAB and also on the Tories on the IOW East.
More to look through over the weekend.
You still have an account on bet365 that can bet more than 1p? In my experience if you vaguely look like you know what you are doing you are restricted to piddly bets in no time.on bet365.
The consensus on Betfair forums seems to be that Bet365 are the best bookmaker, and also the slowest to ban or restrict punters.
I don't know what they are smoking. Within the professional betting community I know, Bet365 are known as the absolute worst for restricting an account that looks like it might be run by somebody who isn't a total moron.
The slowest to ban are none of the known names like Bet365 or Ladbrokes etc, its the "sharp" bookies like Pinnacle.
The larger bookies have a massive amount of analytics running on their database, and can see really quickly when any individual starts making money from them. Four-figure bets are basically not allowed any more if you’ve won one at odds against, and a couple of friends in the UK say they’ve started going into random shops to place bets because of the online profiling shutting them down.
The bookies want you sitting in the pub betting on your phone, on one of the many poor-odds accumulators they advertise on the football matches. They have way more interest in the Euros than the election.
I once won over 14 grand in a single Moto3 bet with Bet365. Account closed, banned for life.
By the way, y’all know my views about what’s coming but I had another shambolic train journey yesterday. Usual saga. Train pulls out of Exeter on time but then halts and before you know it we’re already ten minutes late. Guard announces that ‘we will make up the time on the journey’. Everyone just laughs. Train falls further and further behind until, at Salisbury, it’s cancelled altogether.
The trains are scruffy as hell with no sign of investment. The loos are disgusting. They withdrew all refreshments during lockdown and didn’t return them - you can go 4 hours in hot weather but 'nor any drop to drink.’
And at every single station they blast a full volume message about ‘uniformed and non-uniformed staff patrol our trains. Failure to buy a valid ticket could result in an instant £100 fine and prosecution.’ Followed by an institutional protection message: ‘any abusive behaviour towards a member of of our staff will not be tolerated and will be reported to British Transport Police.’ So you can’t even point out, politely, that their service is shit.
So it’s another Delay Repay claim. Several trains down and several trains up either side of my one were also cancelled.
SWR are a godawful mess. Like so much of our railway network. Like so much of our country.
Incidentally, there are constituency markets for a whole bunch of constituencies up on Bet365. I have had a few nibbles on SLAB and also on the Tories on the IOW East.
More to look through over the weekend.
You still have an account on bet365 that can bet more than 1p? In my experience if you vaguely look like you know what you are doing you are restricted to piddly bets in no time.on bet365.
The consensus on Betfair forums seems to be that Bet365 are the best bookmaker, and also the slowest to ban or restrict punters.
I don't know what they are smoking. Within the professional betting community I know, Bet365 are known as the absolute worst for restricting an account that looks like it might be run by somebody who isn't a total moron.
The slowest to ban are none of the known names like Bet365 or Ladbrokes etc, its the "sharp" bookies like Pinnacle.
The larger bookies have a massive amount of analytics running on their database, and can see really quickly when any individual starts making money from them. Four-figure bets are basically not allowed any more if you’ve won one at odds against, and a couple of friends in the UK say they’ve started going into random shops to place bets because of the online profiling shutting them down.
The bookies want you sitting in the pub betting on your phone, on one of the many poor-odds accumulators they advertise on the football matches. They have way more interest in the Euros than the election.
The sharp bookies like Pinnacle, used to be happy to take big bets from known winners, but the lines are super efficient, so much so many of the soft bookies pretty used to set their lines based upon Pinnacle market.
This has to be one of the worst starts to a political campaign in history. How does it feel compared to 1997?
I was a lot greener, but that felt optimistic. I was an instinctive little Tory boy, but one still felt Blair would be a positive change. That notion was dispelled fairly fast once he took power. It doesn't feel like that to me at the moment particularly.
The weird thing is the UK economy was actually starting to do well by 1997, after the total chaos of the early 90s. So there was a real optimism in the air that just isn't there now. By 1997 it felt like the first day of Spring, whereas economically speaking it feels like we're in the January of a grim winter that's been the January of a grim winter for at least the last three years. With little hope of anything getting better.
They say it's darkest before the dawn and all that, but as others have pointed out the sense of optimism that was there in '97 just isn't there today. It's less "things can only get better" and "well if the other lot get in, things can hardly get worse".
I think the underlying position that Britain finds itself in today is much weaker than in 1997, and so it's not just the point of the economic cycle that the country is in. Things are genuinely and generally worse.
Most notably, so many assets have been sold to foreign investors over the last 27 years, which haven't been balanced by British investments abroad, that every year there is a net flow of money out of the country to those foreign investors. The consequence of this is to create an economic headwind that the country has to overcome to make any forward progress.
The public debt is also much larger. Public sector net debt stood at 45% of GDP at the end of March 1997, and is now 97.9% (or 89.9% excluding the Bank of England).
In 1997 the UK had a trade surplus of more than £5bn. In 2023 the UK had a trade deficit of more than £33bn.
This is not a direction of travel that can continue indefinitely. The Truss Experience shows that Britain is edging closer to the precipice. In 2010 the Tories said that this was something they were going to turn around. And they have failed.
Another really excellent post
pb at its best
It also explains why our utilities and housing market is increasingly foreign owned. Without that inward investment we couldn't finance the trade deficit.
We have been selling the family silver for years. Until the point where we are down to our last cutlery.
I am old enough to remember when trade figures featured heavily in the news and even brought down governments. Now it gets ignored.
Incidentally something is going rather strange with China. It is selling US gilts heavily and buying gold and other commodities, pushing prices up dramatically. I think this is to defend against a possible US trade war. This could have noticeable knock on effects on USA financing of both its trade deficit and government deficit. In turn that is going to impact world markets.
A further reason for China driving dedollarisation is the way that Western countries seized or froze Russian assets in 2022. China doesn't want the same, so is selling paper and buying physical assets.
This may well be the seeds of the next financial crisis.
Incidentally, there are constituency markets for a whole bunch of constituencies up on Bet365. I have had a few nibbles on SLAB and also on the Tories on the IOW East.
More to look through over the weekend.
You still have an account on bet365 that can bet more than 1p? In my experience if you vaguely look like you know what you are doing you are restricted to piddly bets in no time.on bet365.
The consensus on Betfair forums seems to be that Bet365 are the best bookmaker, and also the slowest to ban or restrict punters.
I don't know what they are smoking. Within the professional betting community I know, Bet365 are known as the absolute worst for restricting an account that looks like it might be run by somebody who isn't a total moron.
The slowest to ban are none of the known names like Bet365 or Ladbrokes etc, its the "sharp" bookies like Pinnacle.
I bet almost exclusively on football and politics, and have accounts with Betfair, Smarkets, Bet365, Ladbrokes, Paddypower, Skybet, and William Hill. The only one to ever limit me to tiny stakes has been PP.
Well I answer is quite obvious. Betting on football is a massive mugs game, the market is super efficient if you want to get any real money on. Tony Bloom is widely regarded as one of the top football bettors in the world, employs a huge team of math / comp sci PhDs to model the games, and only able to beat specifically Asian Handicap market for an ROI of < 2%.
But @Foxy did get 1500/1 on Leicester winning the league, possibly the best PB bet of all time!
IIRC @isam spent several years as a professional football gambler, and his syndicate had £75k on the line every Saturday averaging £5k back. At that level, it’s all spreadsheets and trying to get inside information about injuries and player selection.
I'm already shitting myself about the 10pm SJC exit poll.
Anyone else feel the same?
Not this time. Glumly resigned.
I was fucking terrified last time though. The only news medium I could bring myself to watch was the £:$ exchange rates. If it failed to plummet, we were in the clear.
I don't think I have ever felt so relieved in my life as when Labour failed to win the 2019 GE.
They'll clearly win the 2024 one. And it will be shit. But nothing like as shit as them winning in 2019 would have been. And the obviously entirely hypothetical situation of a Conservative win would be not much to cheer.
It’s still horrible to see a spread market come up saying 150 seats though?
That’s losing 200 MPs! And 1906 was reduced to 156, so on the cusp as that record.
Tried to find somewhere I can bet on the SNP being wiped out in terms of seats, but in vain so far.
Have you checked the thread header? Selling SNP on the spreads whilst keeping an eye on your potential losses?
As an aside, current polls show SNP should win about half the 57 Scottish seats. If you want a single price for them to win none, you can contact bookmakers and ask via TwiX.
Incidentally, there are constituency markets for a whole bunch of constituencies up on Bet365. I have had a few nibbles on SLAB and also on the Tories on the IOW East.
More to look through over the weekend.
You still have an account on bet365 that can bet more than 1p? In my experience if you vaguely look like you know what you are doing you are restricted to piddly bets in no time.on bet365.
The consensus on Betfair forums seems to be that Bet365 are the best bookmaker, and also the slowest to ban or restrict punters.
I don't know what they are smoking. Within the professional betting community I know, Bet365 are known as the absolute worst for restricting an account that looks like it might be run by somebody who isn't a total moron.
The slowest to ban are none of the known names like Bet365 or Ladbrokes etc, its the "sharp" bookies like Pinnacle.
The larger bookies have a massive amount of analytics running on their database, and can see really quickly when any individual starts making money from them. Four-figure bets are basically not allowed any more if you’ve won one at odds against, and a couple of friends in the UK say they’ve started going into random shops to place bets because of the online profiling shutting them down.
The bookies want you sitting in the pub betting on your phone, on one of the many poor-odds accumulators they advertise on the football matches. They have way more interest in the Euros than the election.
I once won over 14 grand in a single Moto3 bet with Bet365. Account closed, banned for life.
Lol, because the bookie can’t afford to pay someone to follow the ins and outs of Moto3, and realised that everyone betting on Moto3 knew way more about it than they did!
Incidentally, there are constituency markets for a whole bunch of constituencies up on Bet365. I have had a few nibbles on SLAB and also on the Tories on the IOW East.
More to look through over the weekend.
You still have an account on bet365 that can bet more than 1p? In my experience if you vaguely look like you know what you are doing you are restricted to piddly bets in no time.on bet365.
The consensus on Betfair forums seems to be that Bet365 are the best bookmaker, and also the slowest to ban or restrict punters.
I don't know what they are smoking. Within the professional betting community I know, Bet365 are known as the absolute worst for restricting an account that looks like it might be run by somebody who isn't a total moron.
The slowest to ban are none of the known names like Bet365 or Ladbrokes etc, its the "sharp" bookies like Pinnacle.
I bet almost exclusively on football and politics, and have accounts with Betfair, Smarkets, Bet365, Ladbrokes, Paddypower, Skybet, and William Hill. The only one to ever limit me to tiny stakes has been PP.
Well I answer is quite obvious. Betting on football is a massive mugs game, the market is super efficient if you want to get any real money on. Tony Bloom is widely regarded as one of the top football bettors in the world, employs a huge team of math / comp sci PhDs to model the games, and only able to beat specifically Asian Handicap market for an ROI of < 2%.
But @Foxy did get 1500/1 on Leicester winning the league, possibly the best PB bet of all time!
IIRC @isam spent several years as a professional football gambler, and his syndicate had £75k on the line every Saturday averaging £5k back. At that level, it’s all spreadsheets and trying to get inside information about injuries and player selection.
Leicester winning the league was hitting the lottery.
I highly doubt anybody is getting £5k ROI on £75k outlay long term. As I say, Tony Bloom beat the market for 2%, with crazy resources and ability to get on money anywhere in the world. Football is hyper-efficient market.
Sunak had the advantage over everyone else of knowing that he was calling the election, so you might think he would have been a bit better prepared for doing so
Like making sure he had candidates in every seat, for example...
NEW
Conservative HQ have emailed asking for candidates in almost 100 seats
When candidates ask when the deadline is, they have been told it’s 48 hours, according to 2 I’ve spoken to
Incidentally, there are constituency markets for a whole bunch of constituencies up on Bet365. I have had a few nibbles on SLAB and also on the Tories on the IOW East.
More to look through over the weekend.
You still have an account on bet365 that can bet more than 1p? In my experience if you vaguely look like you know what you are doing you are restricted to piddly bets in no time.on bet365.
The consensus on Betfair forums seems to be that Bet365 are the best bookmaker, and also the slowest to ban or restrict punters.
I don't know what they are smoking. Within the professional betting community I know, Bet365 are known as the absolute worst for restricting an account that looks like it might be run by somebody who isn't a total moron.
The slowest to ban are none of the known names like Bet365 or Ladbrokes etc, its the "sharp" bookies like Pinnacle.
The larger bookies have a massive amount of analytics running on their database, and can see really quickly when any individual starts making money from them. Four-figure bets are basically not allowed any more if you’ve won one at odds against, and a couple of friends in the UK say they’ve started going into random shops to place bets because of the online profiling shutting them down.
The bookies want you sitting in the pub betting on your phone, on one of the many poor-odds accumulators they advertise on the football matches. They have way more interest in the Euros than the election.
I once won over 14 grand in a single Moto3 bet with Bet365. Account closed, banned for life.
Lol, because the bookie can’t afford to pay someone to follow the ins and outs of Moto3, and realised that everyone betting on Moto3 knew way more about it than they did!
Exactly.
The interesting (and lucrative) thing about Moto3/Moto2 is that the 2-3 best riders leave the series every year so if a championship contender from the previous season gets "left behind", goes well in testing and is on a good team then there's your WC bet.
Sunak had the advantage over everyone else of knowing that he was calling the election, so you might think he would have been a bit better prepared for doing so
Like making sure he had candidates in every seat, for example...
NEW
Conservative HQ have emailed asking for candidates in almost 100 seats
When candidates ask when the deadline is, they have been told it’s 48 hours, according to 2 I’ve spoken to
Incidentally, there are constituency markets for a whole bunch of constituencies up on Bet365. I have had a few nibbles on SLAB and also on the Tories on the IOW East.
More to look through over the weekend.
You still have an account on bet365 that can bet more than 1p? In my experience if you vaguely look like you know what you are doing you are restricted to piddly bets in no time.on bet365.
The consensus on Betfair forums seems to be that Bet365 are the best bookmaker, and also the slowest to ban or restrict punters.
I don't know what they are smoking. Within the professional betting community I know, Bet365 are known as the absolute worst for restricting an account that looks like it might be run by somebody who isn't a total moron.
The slowest to ban are none of the known names like Bet365 or Ladbrokes etc, its the "sharp" bookies like Pinnacle.
I bet almost exclusively on football and politics, and have accounts with Betfair, Smarkets, Bet365, Ladbrokes, Paddypower, Skybet, and William Hill. The only one to ever limit me to tiny stakes has been PP.
Well I answer is quite obvious. Betting on football is a massive mugs game, the market is super efficient if you want to get any real money on. Tony Bloom is widely regarded as one of the top football bettors in the world, employs a huge team of math / comp sci PhDs to model the games, and only able to beat specifically Asian Handicap market for an ROI of < 2%.
I won about £8 000 from Ladbrokes when Leicester won the PL in 2016, including £1 ew at 3000/1. They didn't put any restrictions on my account. More recently my football bets just about break even. I make a modest surplus on political bets (up £130 on date of GE for example, as I had bought Q3 anticipating a Sept GE, though lost £35 on the monthly markets)
I don't bet big stakes though. Perhaps £10 most weeks on the footy and £500+ on UK elections, so maybe fly under their radar as too small to bother with.
Incidentally, there are constituency markets for a whole bunch of constituencies up on Bet365. I have had a few nibbles on SLAB and also on the Tories on the IOW East.
More to look through over the weekend.
You still have an account on bet365 that can bet more than 1p? In my experience if you vaguely look like you know what you are doing you are restricted to piddly bets in no time.on bet365.
The consensus on Betfair forums seems to be that Bet365 are the best bookmaker, and also the slowest to ban or restrict punters.
I don't know what they are smoking. Within the professional betting community I know, Bet365 are known as the absolute worst for restricting an account that looks like it might be run by somebody who isn't a total moron.
The slowest to ban are none of the known names like Bet365 or Ladbrokes etc, its the "sharp" bookies like Pinnacle.
The larger bookies have a massive amount of analytics running on their database, and can see really quickly when any individual starts making money from them. Four-figure bets are basically not allowed any more if you’ve won one at odds against, and a couple of friends in the UK say they’ve started going into random shops to place bets because of the online profiling shutting them down.
The bookies want you sitting in the pub betting on your phone, on one of the many poor-odds accumulators they advertise on the football matches. They have way more interest in the Euros than the election.
I once won over 14 grand in a single Moto3 bet with Bet365. Account closed, banned for life.
Lol, because the bookie can’t afford to pay someone to follow the ins and outs of Moto3, and realised that everyone betting on Moto3 knew way more about it than they did!
Exactly.
The interesting (and lucrative) thing about Moto3/Moto2 is that the 2-3 best riders leave the series every year so if a championship contender from the previous season gets "left behind", goes well in testing and is on a good team then there's your WC bet.
Is another reason why football market is hyper-efficient, even total non-entity leagues, nowadays if it is filmed, StatsBomb will track all the players, build stats etc. They are literally collecting data from things like some obscure youth game in Estonia. There is no blind spot like minor sports outside the top leagues or unknown individuals just popping up from nowhere.
Comments
Add the sheer tiredness and internal division the party is exuding and motivation is hard even if they try.
Wymondham (Melton) Council By-Election Result:
🌳 CON: 65.6% (-6.1)
🙋 IND: 34.4% (New)
No LAB (-28.3) as previous.
Conservative HOLD.
Changes w/ 2023.
The cinema – one of the UK’s oldest – is holding a private screening of Supernova: The Music Festival Massacre, as part of the international Seret film festival on Thursday night.
The documentary tells the story of the attack by Hamas on the Nova music festival on 7 October through survivor testimony.
https://www.theguardian.com/film/article/2024/may/23/ken-loach-mike-leigh-resign-patrons-phoenix-cinema-israeli-film-festival-screening
Antisemites.
Most notably, so many assets have been sold to foreign investors over the last 27 years, which haven't been balanced by British investments abroad, that every year there is a net flow of money out of the country to those foreign investors. The consequence of this is to create an economic headwind that the country has to overcome to make any forward progress.
The public debt is also much larger. Public sector net debt stood at 45% of GDP at the end of March 1997, and is now 97.9% (or 89.9% excluding the Bank of England).
In 1997 the UK had a trade surplus of more than £5bn. In 2023 the UK had a trade deficit of more than £33bn.
This is not a direction of travel that can continue indefinitely. The Truss Experience shows that Britain is edging closer to the precipice. In 2010 the Tories said that this was something they were going to turn around. And they have failed.
Westminster voting intention
LAB: 45% (+1)
CON: 19% (-2)
REF: 14% (+2)
LDEM: 12% (-)
GRN: 5% (-1)
via
@techneUK
, 23 May
https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1793763701993959558
SKS is "change". Sunak is "wet".
So yes, it feels like it's something that's longer than a typical economic cycle. And not just due to the GFC, but for the reasons you've discussed above.
The economy feels broken in a way that goes beyond boom and bust cycles and into underlying structural problems.
I'm not sure Labour have any answers to this either, tbh. But it's time to let someone else have a go at fixing things.
3 syllables and something to appeal to the GenX and younger Boomers.
Another 30% is likely the continued hangover from the 2008 financial crisis, which really screwed Western economies, few more so than our own financial services heavy one.
Then 10% the combined wounds of Covid and the Ukraine war. Leaving 10% down to bad governance and bad decisions on our international trade posture.
The West has had a shitty time since 2008. I’d love to say things can only get better but our demographic trends say nope. At best we can erase some of the 10% bad governance discount and hope the slow healing of post-financial crisis and Covid wounds offsets the accelerating drag effect of an ageing and nectrotic population.
More to look through over the weekend.
GN all
👍
“religious conservatism is too. How often have you heard "we're a Christian country"?”
If you think your fishing, prepare to lose your rod, river bank, and yourself - I’m gonna bite.
You hear “we are a Christian Country” because we ARE a Christian Country. Things do not always get better. Human life is dependent upon forces greater than our own selves. There will never be an end to human pain and suffering, but it can be made less. This is the cornerstone principles our Great Country is founded upon - and they come from Christianity. Because what matters most to people is their family, relationships, friendships, work as a source of creative value, a cultural inheritance that gives meaning to life, and for some faith. What holds a society together is reciprocity - do not do to others what you would not want done to yourself, straight from the Christian Bible. The liberalism of the last thirty years has not been progressive, it’s taken us back to the cave man age of cannibalism. To turn the dial back in the right direction needs Conservative hands on the lever. Go back to remembering about protecting nature and human value from the commodification of capitalism and the transactional culture of the market. Becuase Democracy in UK has become an oligarchy, the liberal left in control of culture and the liberal right in control of the economy. This is New Labour, the is Starmer’s 2024 manifesto, Labour and the Liberals now share a liberal contractual view of society, in place of mutual loyalties binding human beings into families, groups and nations, they each now agree on the individual and the state, the individual and the market. Neither Labour or Liberals speak for the families and neighbourhoods we are born into, nor about our cultural and religious inheritances - but those cultural and religious inheritance are fundamental bonds that hold individuals together in a society. Since the eighties and nineties, public policy has not been used enough to strengthen families, communities, and the nation: the associations that make individuals happy, safe and free. Given the unique threats of our age we need more Conservatism not less.
Now you understand why this General Election is important, and 200 Conservative seat losses a disaster for the country.
Rant over. Good Night! 😠
But an easy label for philistines to hang on a talented film maker with a social conscience
Apparently it has gone down like a cup of cold sick.
Was it really necessary for Cameron to return so that Cabinet could be issued a fait accompli (Sunak had already visited the King)? It honestly feels like British statecraft has simply collapsed.
https://ktar.com/story/5574635/ruben-gallego-maintains-big-lead-over-kari-lake-in-race-for-arizona-us-senate-seat-poll-says/
"The general ejection" is the headline on the front of the Daily Star. It reports holiday bookings are up 57% as people try to avoid "six weeks of fibs and bluster" in the run up to the election.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cekk00jxnnjo
Conservative HQ have emailed asking for candidates in almost 100 seats
When candidates ask when the deadline is, they have been told it’s 48 hours, according to 2 I’ve spoken to
Some Tory associations are pretty livid at having been left in such an unprepared situation
https://x.com/PGMcNamara/status/1793702331961450798 (C4 politics dude)
The slowest to ban are none of the known names like Bet365 or Ladbrokes etc, its the "sharp" bookies like Pinnacle.
Anyone watched The 8 Show yet ?
She seems to be doing a pretty thorough job of trailing.
A Fort Lauderdale cop reported an attack by BLM protesters. Now, the story’s changing
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/broward/article288642955.html
It’s been nearly four years since police shot tear gas and rubber bullets at protesters as they left a previously peaceful rally held in downtown Fort Lauderdale in the wake of the killing of George Floyd, fracturing the eye socket of LaToya Ratlieff.
Now, new evidence in a civil rights lawsuit filed by Ratlieff appears to undermine the department’s official justification for using chemical agents and so-called “less lethal” munitions against protesters that day.
Although there had been no violent incidents all afternoon, police said their heavy-handed tactics that evening were a response to an officer “screaming for help” over the radio as protesters attacked her unmarked police car, pounding on windows and jumping on the vehicle.
During a deposition taken under oath, the officer who made the initial distress call admitted she never actually saw anyone damaging her vehicle or jumping on the trunk as described in her incident report. And a forensic analysis of synchronized video and audio from the scene shows no evidence that protesters were surrounding the vehicle, as the officer reported as she radioed for back up...
‘Mild positive’: markets greet prospect of Labour landslide with calm
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/23/its-a-mild-positive-markets-greet-prospect-of-labour-victory-with-calm
Add up the numbers on that.
Second posthumous miracle attributed to leukaemia victim Carlo Acutis, qualifying him for canonisation
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/23/london-born-boy-who-died-aged-15-to-become-first-millennial-saint
https://bylinetimes.com/2024/05/23/vast-majority-of-those-turned-away-over-voter-id-in-local-elections-were-non-white-according-to-polling-station-observers/
https://x.com/frencheconomics/status/1793519837437681790?s=61
Palestine again !
Implications for turnout markets, but also a serious question as to whether this is damaging democracy to tackle a vanishingly rare crime of vote fraud.
I am not sure that we can compare these ethnicity figures with the national figures. The areas voting this time were disproportionately multi ethnic in places such as London, Midlands and North, so likely to be more ethnically diverse than the total UK population.
We now have Sutton Parkway.
The Yank Parkways are as we know roads where Usonians wanted to drive through parks in the 1930s (?) onwards.
Clarkson would say because they are too fat in general to want to walk far through them. I couldn't possibly comment.
pb at its best
The Nationalalists are a bit different, but the role of Green, Reform, WPB and even LD is to shift opinion within Labour or Conservative rather than implement it themselves, at least for this election. Hence they can propose radical policies.
The Greens are more than BJOs list, which he has cherrypicked for Corbynite policies, leaving aside green issues.
The party has balance problems nationally imo - it's not so long since they were sympathetic to homeopathy iirc, though the one that sticks in my mind was Jenny Jones comparing the Met to the Syrian Secret Police (around the time of the Menezes case again iirc).
I wonder if the Greens will be targeting Ashfield?
The 2nd semi-final qualifier is on this afternoon and the final is on Sunday. Worth a peek.
I genuinely fear for the County and even 50-over formats when you have such a pull with the 20-20. Dull it is not.
Kate Ashbrook, the General Secetary of the Open Spaces Society, on doing her annual Path Check of Public Footpaths in her area, and reporting problems. Important, unsung work.
The how, and the why.
https://campaignerkate.wordpress.com/2020/05/09/lockdown-path-check/
I have recently taken on my home parish of Turville for path checking for the Ramblers, in addition to Piddington and Wheeler End. The plan is to walk every path in the parish at least once a year and to report any problems to Buckinghamshire County Council, the highway authority. I normally do my path checking in late summer, but this year I had completed Turville by the end of April. It is a nifty occupation for lockdown and I highly recommend it.
The bookies want you sitting in the pub betting on your phone, on one of the many poor-odds accumulators they advertise on the football matches. They have way more interest in the Euros than the election.
The trains are scruffy as hell with no sign of investment. The loos are disgusting. They withdrew all refreshments during lockdown and didn’t return them - you can go 4 hours in hot weather but 'nor any drop to drink.’
And at every single station they blast a full volume message about ‘uniformed and non-uniformed staff patrol our trains. Failure to buy a valid ticket could result in an instant £100 fine and prosecution.’ Followed by an institutional protection message: ‘any abusive behaviour towards a member of of our staff will not be tolerated and will be reported to British Transport Police.’ So you can’t even point out, politely, that their service is shit.
So it’s another Delay Repay claim. Several trains down and several trains up either side of my one were also cancelled.
SWR are a godawful mess.
Like so much of our railway network.
Like so much of our country.
We have been selling the family silver for years. Until the point where we are down to our last cutlery.
I am old enough to remember when trade figures featured heavily in the news and even brought down governments. Now it gets ignored.
Incidentally something is going rather strange with China. It is selling US gilts heavily and buying gold and other commodities, pushing prices up dramatically. I think this is to defend against a possible US trade war. This could have noticeable knock on effects on USA financing of both its trade deficit and government deficit. In turn that is going to impact world markets.
A further reason for China driving dedollarisation is the way that Western countries seized or froze Russian assets in 2022. China doesn't want the same, so is selling paper and buying physical assets.
This may well be the seeds of the next financial crisis.
IIRC @isam spent several years as a professional football gambler, and his syndicate had £75k on the line every Saturday averaging £5k back. At that level, it’s all spreadsheets and trying to get inside information about injuries and player selection.
https://x.com/paranoidpol/status/1793302872001478881?s=12
1906 the Conservatives won 129 seats.
The other 27 were Liberal Unionists.
I highly doubt anybody is getting £5k ROI on £75k outlay long term. As I say, Tony Bloom beat the market for 2%, with crazy resources and ability to get on money anywhere in the world. Football is hyper-efficient market.
God knows how much Sporting will expect you to have on account with them this year, with the result even more unsure than seven years ago.
How do you manage to surprise yourself with the timing of an election you called?
What a mess.
The interesting (and lucrative) thing about Moto3/Moto2 is that the 2-3 best riders leave the series every year so if a championship contender from the previous season gets "left behind", goes well in testing and is on a good team then there's your WC bet.
I don't bet big stakes though. Perhaps £10 most weeks on the footy and £500+ on UK elections, so maybe fly under their radar as too small to bother with.