The spreads are open – politicalbetting.com

TimS said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TimS said:

One point on which almost the entirely of PB has been wrong (so far). Sunak and the Tories are not going all out negative and culture war, or all out tax giveaways. It's quite an old fashioned appeal to stick with the incumbent for fear of the opposition who might mess things up. It's 1997 Major.

No withdrawal from the ECHR. No slashing of inheritance tax. No confected row with the EU. Not even a rehashing of Starmer defending terrorists, yet.

Its like they have given up, called a GE on a whim and don't really have a detailed plan of attack.

They are mentally defeated already. Or it's some genius rope-a-dope strategy.

Foxy said:

Looks like Putin has gone all Stalin on his Generals. Trouble at mill.

https://x.com/BBCSteveR/status/1793593969651425365?t=dX6y6f2ADbdAbZNL-musoQ&s=19

ohnotnow said:

Chameleon said:

carnforth said:

"A nine-year-old boy died from sepsis after doctors and nurses missed a "significant" GP note, an inquest heard.

Dylan Cope, from Newport was taken to the Grange Hospital in Cwmbran, Torfaen, on 6 December 2022 after his GP wrote “query appendicitis”, but this note was not read.

The senior doctor on shift that night said GP referrals were not being printed off and put into patients' notes because of how busy the department was.

The court also heard how Dylan’s father should have been directed to a 999 call handler, but was not due to a mistake."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c7223p24qzjo

The only saving grace here is that multiple independent failures were required for this awful outcome. But they happened. The whole thing is a bit more nuanced, and is worfh a read.

Every anecdote I hear from my friends who studied medicine sounds not dissimilar to the causes of this. Baffling (a) how badly the massive increase in funding is being spent and (b) the complete lack of effort to resolve the training place (post F2) jam is - for that's the main push factor among my friends, who are all at that stage.

This is where (at the risk of summoning Leon again) I think the LLM's would be really make a difference. Being able to quickly surface 'oh, that's a bit odd' for 2p compared to some overworked nurse/gp/whatever pouring over their 50th patient notes of the day.

I know there are lots of papers showing LLMs are already doing well on medical stuff - but just that routine helping hand - for pennies. In 10 years I hope there aren't a lot of thesis explaining how many people could still be alive for the fear of adopting it.

TimS said:

CatMan said:

"Breaking: Keir Starmer has agreed to take part in two head-to-head election TV debates with Rishi Sunak on the BBC and ITV.

Labour sources: "Labour will not be tearing up the format established in previous elections just to suit this week’s whims of the Tory Party." PM was pushing for weekly debates.

#Newsnight"

https://x.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1793770268596277679

Labour seem to be exuding confidence since the election was called.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Ken Loach and Mike Leigh have resigned as patrons of the Phoenix cinema in London in protest over the venue hosting an Israeli state-sponsored film festival.

The cinema – one of the UK’s oldest – is holding a private screening of Supernova: The Music Festival Massacre, as part of the international Seret film festival on Thursday night.

The documentary tells the story of the attack by Hamas on the Nova music festival on 7 October through survivor testimony.

https://www.theguardian.com/film/article/2024/may/23/ken-loach-mike-leigh-resign-patrons-phoenix-cinema-israeli-film-festival-screening

Antisemites.

wooliedyed said:

TimS said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TimS said:

One point on which almost the entirely of PB has been wrong (so far). Sunak and the Tories are not going all out negative and culture war, or all out tax giveaways. It's quite an old fashioned appeal to stick with the incumbent for fear of the opposition who might mess things up. It's 1997 Major.

No withdrawal from the ECHR. No slashing of inheritance tax. No confected row with the EU. Not even a rehashing of Starmer defending terrorists, yet.

Its like they have given up, called a GE on a whim and don't really have a detailed plan of attack.

They are mentally defeated already. Or it's some genius rope-a-dope strategy.

It's only 31 hours in! All that's happened is Sunak got wet and Farage ran away

LostPassword said:

kyf_100 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

This has to be one of the worst starts to a political campaign in history. How does it feel compared to 1997?

I was a lot greener, but that felt optimistic. I was an instinctive little Tory boy, but one still felt Blair would be a positive change. That notion was dispelled fairly fast once he took power. It doesn't feel like that to me at the moment particularly.

The weird thing is the UK economy was actually starting to do well by 1997, after the total chaos of the early 90s. So there was a real optimism in the air that just isn't there now. By 1997 it felt like the first day of Spring, whereas economically speaking it feels like we're in the January of a grim winter that's been the January of a grim winter for at least the last three years. With little hope of anything getting better.

They say it's darkest before the dawn and all that, but as others have pointed out the sense of optimism that was there in '97 just isn't there today. It's less "things can only get better" and "well if the other lot get in, things can hardly get worse".

I think the underlying position that Britain finds itself in today is much weaker than in 1997, and so it's not just the point of the economic cycle that the country is in. Things are genuinely and generally worse.

Most notably, so many assets have been sold to foreign investors over the last 27 years, which haven't been balanced by British investments abroad, that every year there is a net flow of money out of the country to those foreign investors. The consequence of this is to create an economic headwind that the country has to overcome to make any forward progress.

The public debt is also much larger. Public sector net debt stood at 45% of GDP at the end of March 1997, and is now 97.9% (or 89.9% excluding the Bank of England).

In 1997 the UK had a trade surplus of more than £5bn. In 2023 the UK had a trade deficit of more than £33bn.

This is not a direction of travel that can continue indefinitely. The Truss Experience shows that Britain is edging closer to the precipice. In 2010 the Tories said that this was something they were going to turn around. And they have failed.

LostPassword said:

kyf_100 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

This has to be one of the worst starts to a political campaign in history. How does it feel compared to 1997?

I was a lot greener, but that felt optimistic. I was an instinctive little Tory boy, but one still felt Blair would be a positive change. That notion was dispelled fairly fast once he took power. It doesn't feel like that to me at the moment particularly.

The weird thing is the UK economy was actually starting to do well by 1997, after the total chaos of the early 90s. So there was a real optimism in the air that just isn't there now. By 1997 it felt like the first day of Spring, whereas economically speaking it feels like we're in the January of a grim winter that's been the January of a grim winter for at least the last three years. With little hope of anything getting better.

They say it's darkest before the dawn and all that, but as others have pointed out the sense of optimism that was there in '97 just isn't there today. It's less "things can only get better" and "well if the other lot get in, things can hardly get worse".

I think the underlying position that Britain finds itself in today is much weaker than in 1997, and so it's not just the point of the economic cycle that the country is in. Things are genuinely and generally worse.

Most notably, so many assets have been sold to foreign investors over the last 27 years, which haven't been balanced by British investments abroad, that every year there is a net flow of money out of the country to those foreign investors. The consequence of this is to create an economic headwind that the country has to overcome to make any forward progress.

The public debt is also much larger. Public sector net debt stood at 45% of GDP at the end of March 1997, and is now 97.9% (or 89.9% excluding the Bank of England).

In 1997 the UK had a trade surplus of more than £5bn. In 2023 the UK had a trade deficit of more than £33bn.

This is not a direction of travel that can continue indefinitely. The Truss Experience shows that Britain is edging closer to the precipice. In 2010 the Tories said that this was something they were going to turn around. And they have failed.

Farooq said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Ken Loach and Mike Leigh have resigned as patrons of the Phoenix cinema in London in protest over the venue hosting an Israeli state-sponsored film festival.

The cinema – one of the UK’s oldest – is holding a private screening of Supernova: The Music Festival Massacre, as part of the international Seret film festival on Thursday night.

The documentary tells the story of the attack by Hamas on the Nova music festival on 7 October through survivor testimony.

https://www.theguardian.com/film/article/2024/may/23/ken-loach-mike-leigh-resign-patrons-phoenix-cinema-israeli-film-festival-screening

Antisemites.

Thought experiment.
If someone resigned as a patron of a cinema because they disagreed with a film festival funded by the Chinese state, citing concerns that the cinema would become "silent accomplices to the violence inflicted on the [Uyghers]" would your reaction be similar? Would they be sinophobes?

HYUFD said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Labour lead at 26pts
Westminster voting intention

LAB: 45% (+1)
CON: 19% (-2)
REF: 14% (+2)
LDEM: 12% (-)
GRN: 5% (-1)

via
@techneUK
, 23 May

https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1793763701993959558

The Tories should squeeze that Reform figure over the campaign with Farage not returning and immigration down on last year today

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Farooq said:

MoonRabbit said:

Cookie said:

FF43 said:

MoonRabbit said:

rottenborough said:

Wow.

Just kaboom.


The Labour Party
@UKLabour

14 years.

https://x.com/UKLabour/status/1793733483715543433

I didn’t think much of that at all. The quick reeling off of the things not quite as good in comparison, Housing crisis, prices, feeling worse off, NHS, that bit was okay, but bit with the Tory leaders that followed didn’t work at all. The voice used as voice over didn’t work, just sounded like Channel 4 news.

Not very good overall imo

The point being made is the Tories have had 14 years and 5 prime ministers and nothing to show for it. Things have got a lot worse in fact. I think the video made that point very effectively.

The gap is why should we believe Labour is any better. Is Starmer actually change or is he just like the five predecessors promising change but just the same old?

It's not clear to me that things have got worse, or that if they have they have done so more than other comparable countries.

It is clear however that Britain during the last 14 years has got a lot more left wing. State spending up, state interference in people's lives up, identity politics on the rise, immigration a free for all, massive spending on renewables (I favour this last one, actually).

If you like massive spending on renewables, then why is it a left wing thing? Conservatives don’t just care about the environment, they are its guardians.

While we're at it, some of the other things on the list:
State spending: right wingers are often very in favour of increased state spending in some sectors: policing, defence, and to some extent state pensions (although that's also a leftist issue). Crony capitalism deserves an honourable mention, although that's more a practice than a platform.
State interference in lives: the right have become very exercised in recent times about what is being taught in schools, full on moral panic mode at times. Shades of Section 28.
Identity politics is a cross-politics phenomenon. Right-wing nationalism is in that category, religious conservatism is too. How often have you heard "we're a Christian country"?
Immigration, in recent times, has been associated with the economic right and opposed by the far left. It still is to some extent. In recent years, the right and reactionary right has turned against it, but even then that's partially based on nationalist sentiments.
Environmentalism is also cross-politics, although it comes in distinct flavours. Left-green tends to be around how the environment affects the precarious and vulnerable, whereas right-green focuses on conservation.

I don't get why the Tories can't just accept that some things ought to be state-owned and just leave it. E.g. the railways, water. Just accept it and don't get involved.

Anabobazina said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Farooq said:

MoonRabbit said:

Cookie said:

FF43 said:

MoonRabbit said:

rottenborough said:

Wow.

Just kaboom.


The Labour Party
@UKLabour

14 years.

https://x.com/UKLabour/status/1793733483715543433

I didn’t think much of that at all. The quick reeling off of the things not quite as good in comparison, Housing crisis, prices, feeling worse off, NHS, that bit was okay, but bit with the Tory leaders that followed didn’t work at all. The voice used as voice over didn’t work, just sounded like Channel 4 news.

Not very good overall imo

The point being made is the Tories have had 14 years and 5 prime ministers and nothing to show for it. Things have got a lot worse in fact. I think the video made that point very effectively.

The gap is why should we believe Labour is any better. Is Starmer actually change or is he just like the five predecessors promising change but just the same old?

It's not clear to me that things have got worse, or that if they have they have done so more than other comparable countries.

It is clear however that Britain during the last 14 years has got a lot more left wing. State spending up, state interference in people's lives up, identity politics on the rise, immigration a free for all, massive spending on renewables (I favour this last one, actually).

If you like massive spending on renewables, then why is it a left wing thing? Conservatives don’t just care about the environment, they are its guardians.

While we're at it, some of the other things on the list:
State spending: right wingers are often very in favour of increased state spending in some sectors: policing, defence, and to some extent state pensions (although that's also a leftist issue). Crony capitalism deserves an honourable mention, although that's more a practice than a platform.
State interference in lives: the right have become very exercised in recent times about what is being taught in schools, full on moral panic mode at times. Shades of Section 28.
Identity politics is a cross-politics phenomenon. Right-wing nationalism is in that category, religious conservatism is too. How often have you heard "we're a Christian country"?
Immigration, in recent times, has been associated with the economic right and opposed by the far left. It still is to some extent. In recent years, the right and reactionary right has turned against it, but even then that's partially based on nationalist sentiments.
Environmentalism is also cross-politics, although it comes in distinct flavours. Left-green tends to be around how the environment affects the precarious and vulnerable, whereas right-green focuses on conservation.

I don't get why the Tories can't just accept that some things ought to be state-owned and just leave it. E.g. the railways, water. Just accept it and don't get involved.

I think many do think that. Lots of Tories support the nationalisation of both those utilities. Were they renationalised under Labour, I doubt a future Tory government would seek to reprivatise them.

MoonRabbit said:

Farooq said:

MoonRabbit said:

Cookie said:

FF43 said:

MoonRabbit said:

rottenborough said:

Wow.

Just kaboom.


The Labour Party
@UKLabour

14 years.

https://x.com/UKLabour/status/1793733483715543433

I didn’t think much of that at all. The quick reeling off of the things not quite as good in comparison, Housing crisis, prices, feeling worse off, NHS, that bit was okay, but bit with the Tory leaders that followed didn’t work at all. The voice used as voice over didn’t work, just sounded like Channel 4 news.

Not very good overall imo

The point being made is the Tories have had 14 years and 5 prime ministers and nothing to show for it. Things have got a lot worse in fact. I think the video made that point very effectively.

The gap is why should we believe Labour is any better. Is Starmer actually change or is he just like the five predecessors promising change but just the same old?

It's not clear to me that things have got worse, or that if they have they have done so more than other comparable countries.

It is clear however that Britain during the last 14 years has got a lot more left wing. State spending up, state interference in people's lives up, identity politics on the rise, immigration a free for all, massive spending on renewables (I favour this last one, actually).

If you like massive spending on renewables, then why is it a left wing thing? Conservatives don’t just care about the environment, they are its guardians.

While we're at it, some of the other things on the list:
State spending: right wingers are often very in favour of increased state spending in some sectors: policing, defence, and to some extent state pensions (although that's also a leftist issue). Crony capitalism deserves an honourable mention, although that's more a practice than a platform.
State interference in lives: the right have become very exercised in recent times about what is being taught in schools, full on moral panic mode at times. Shades of Section 28.
Identity politics is a cross-politics phenomenon. Right-wing nationalism is in that category, religious conservatism is too. How often have you heard "we're a Christian country"?
Immigration, in recent times, has been associated with the economic right and opposed by the far left. It still is to some extent. In recent years, the right and reactionary right has turned against it, but even then that's partially based on nationalist sentiments.
Environmentalism is also cross-politics, although it comes in distinct flavours. Left-green tends to be around how the environment affects the precarious and vulnerable, whereas right-green focuses on conservation.

Woah. What a load of drivel.
“religious conservatism is too. How often have you heard "we're a Christian country"?”
If you think your fishing, prepare to lose your rod, river bank, and yourself - I’m gonna bite.

You hear “we are a Christian Country” because we ARE a Christian Country. Things do not always get better. Human life is dependent upon forces greater than our own selves. There will never be an end to human pain and suffering, but it can be made less. This is the cornerstone principles our Great Country is founded upon - and they come from Christianity. Because what matters most to people is their family, relationships, friendships, work as a source of creative value, a cultural inheritance that gives meaning to life, and for some faith. What holds a society together is reciprocity - do not do to others what you would not want done to yourself, straight from the Christian Bible. The liberalism of the last thirty years has not been progressive, it’s taken us back to the cave man age of cannibalism. To turn the dial back in the right direction needs Conservative hands on the lever. Go back to remembering about protecting nature and human value from the commodification of capitalism and the transactional culture of the market. Becuase Democracy in UK has become an oligarchy, the liberal left in control of culture and the liberal right in control of the economy. This is New Labour, the is Starmer’s 2024 manifesto, Labour and the Liberals now share a liberal contractual view of society, in place of mutual loyalties binding human beings into families, groups and nations, they each now agree on the individual and the state, the individual and the market. Neither Labour or Liberals speak for the families and neighbourhoods we are born into, nor about our cultural and religious inheritances - but those cultural and religious inheritance are fundamental bonds that hold individuals together in a society. Since the eighties and nineties, public policy has not been used enough to strengthen families, communities, and the nation: the associations that make individuals happy, safe and free. Given the unique threats of our age we need more Conservatism not less.

Now you understand why this General Election is important, and 200 Conservative seat losses a disaster for the country.

Rant over. Good Night! 😠

Cookie said:

FF43 said:

MoonRabbit said:

rottenborough said:

Wow.

Just kaboom.


The Labour Party
@UKLabour

14 years.

https://x.com/UKLabour/status/1793733483715543433

I didn’t think much of that at all. The quick reeling off of the things not quite as good in comparison, Housing crisis, prices, feeling worse off, NHS, that bit was okay, but bit with the Tory leaders that followed didn’t work at all. The voice used as voice over didn’t work, just sounded like Channel 4 news.

Not very good overall imo

The point being made is the Tories have had 14 years and 5 prime ministers and nothing to show for it. Things have got a lot worse in fact. I think the video made that point very effectively.

The gap is why should we believe Labour is any better. Is Starmer actually change or is he just like the five predecessors promising change but just the same old?

It's not clear to me that things have got worse, or that if they have they have done so more than other comparable countries.

It is clear however that Britain during the last 14 years has got a lot more left wing. State spending up, state interference in people's lives up, identity politics on the rise, immigration a free for all, massive spending on renewables (I favour this last one, actually).

MoonRabbit said:

Farooq said:

MoonRabbit said:

Cookie said:

FF43 said:

MoonRabbit said:

rottenborough said:

Wow.

Just kaboom.


The Labour Party
@UKLabour

14 years.

https://x.com/UKLabour/status/1793733483715543433

I didn’t think much of that at all. The quick reeling off of the things not quite as good in comparison, Housing crisis, prices, feeling worse off, NHS, that bit was okay, but bit with the Tory leaders that followed didn’t work at all. The voice used as voice over didn’t work, just sounded like Channel 4 news.

Not very good overall imo

The point being made is the Tories have had 14 years and 5 prime ministers and nothing to show for it. Things have got a lot worse in fact. I think the video made that point very effectively.

The gap is why should we believe Labour is any better. Is Starmer actually change or is he just like the five predecessors promising change but just the same old?

It's not clear to me that things have got worse, or that if they have they have done so more than other comparable countries.

It is clear however that Britain during the last 14 years has got a lot more left wing. State spending up, state interference in people's lives up, identity politics on the rise, immigration a free for all, massive spending on renewables (I favour this last one, actually).

If you like massive spending on renewables, then why is it a left wing thing? Conservatives don’t just care about the environment, they are its guardians.

While we're at it, some of the other things on the list:
State spending: right wingers are often very in favour of increased state spending in some sectors: policing, defence, and to some extent state pensions (although that's also a leftist issue). Crony capitalism deserves an honourable mention, although that's more a practice than a platform.
State interference in lives: the right have become very exercised in recent times about what is being taught in schools, full on moral panic mode at times. Shades of Section 28.
Identity politics is a cross-politics phenomenon. Right-wing nationalism is in that category, religious conservatism is too. How often have you heard "we're a Christian country"?
Immigration, in recent times, has been associated with the economic right and opposed by the far left. It still is to some extent. In recent years, the right and reactionary right has turned against it, but even then that's partially based on nationalist sentiments.
Environmentalism is also cross-politics, although it comes in distinct flavours. Left-green tends to be around how the environment affects the precarious and vulnerable, whereas right-green focuses on conservation.

Woah. What a load of drivel.
“religious conservatism is too. How often have you heard "we're a Christian country"?”
If you think your fishing, prepare to lose your rod, river bank, and yourself - I’m gonna bite.

You hear “we are a Christian Country” because we ARE a Christian Country. Things do not always get better. Human life is dependent upon forces greater than our own selves. There will never be an end to human pain and suffering, but it can be made less. This is the cornerstone principles our Great Country is founded upon - and they come from Christianity. Because what matters most to people is their family, relationships, friendships, work as a source of creative value, a cultural inheritance that gives meaning to life, and for some faith. What holds a society together is reciprocity - do not do to others what you would not want done to yourself, straight from the Christian Bible. The liberalism of the last thirty years has not been progressive, it’s taken us back to the cave man age of cannibalism. To turn the dial back in the right direction needs Conservative hands on the lever. Go back to remembering about protecting nature and human value from the commodification of capitalism and the transactional culture of the market. Becuase Democracy in UK has become an oligarchy, the liberal left in control of culture and the liberal right in control of the economy. This is New Labour, the is Starmer’s 2024 manifesto, Labour and the Liberals now share a liberal contractual view of society, in place of mutual loyalties binding human beings into families, groups and nations, they each now agree on the individual and the state, the individual and the market. Neither Labour or Liberals speak for the families and neighbourhoods we are born into, nor about our cultural and religious inheritances - but those cultural and religious inheritance are fundamental bonds that hold individuals together in a society. Since the eighties and nineties, public policy has not been used enough to strengthen families, communities, and the nation: the associations that make individuals happy, safe and free. Given the unique threats of our age we need more Conservatism not less.

Scott_xP said:

LostPassword said:

Sunak had the advantage over everyone else of knowing that he was calling the election, so you might think he would have been a bit better prepared for doing so

Like making sure he had candidates in every seat, for example...

FrancisUrquhart said:

Foxy said:

Incidentally, there are constituency markets for a whole bunch of constituencies up on Bet365. I have had a few nibbles on SLAB and also on the Tories on the IOW East.

More to look through over the weekend.

You still have an account on bet365 that can bet more than 1p? In my experience if you vaguely look like you know what you are doing you are restricted to piddly bets in no time.on bet365.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Foxy said:

Incidentally, there are constituency markets for a whole bunch of constituencies up on Bet365. I have had a few nibbles on SLAB and also on the Tories on the IOW East.

More to look through over the weekend.

You still have an account on bet365 that can bet more than 1p? In my experience if you vaguely look like you know what you are doing you are restricted to piddly bets in no time.on bet365.

The consensus on Betfair forums seems to be that Bet365 are the best bookmaker, and also the slowest to ban or restrict punters.

rcs1000 said:

Kari Lake trailing badly in Arizona Senate race:

https://ktar.com/story/5574635/ruben-gallego-maintains-big-lead-over-kari-lake-in-race-for-arizona-us-senate-seat-poll-says/

FrancisUrquhart said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Foxy said:

Incidentally, there are constituency markets for a whole bunch of constituencies up on Bet365. I have had a few nibbles on SLAB and also on the Tories on the IOW East.

More to look through over the weekend.

You still have an account on bet365 that can bet more than 1p? In my experience if you vaguely look like you know what you are doing you are restricted to piddly bets in no time.on bet365.

The consensus on Betfair forums seems to be that Bet365 are the best bookmaker, and also the slowest to ban or restrict punters.

I don't know what they are smoking. Within the professional betting community I know, Bet365 are known as the absolute worst for restricting an account that looks like it might be run by somebody who isn't a total moron.

The slowest to ban are none of the known names like Bet365 or Ladbrokes etc, its the "sharp" bookies like Pinnacle.

rottenborough said:

Andrew Neil
@afneil
·
2h
113 current MPs have confirmed they will not stand for re-election on July 4th — of whom 70 are Tories. It’s an exodus.

IanB2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

wooliedyed said:

TimS said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TimS said:

One point on which almost the entirely of PB has been wrong (so far). Sunak and the Tories are not going all out negative and culture war, or all out tax giveaways. It's quite an old fashioned appeal to stick with the incumbent for fear of the opposition who might mess things up. It's 1997 Major.

No withdrawal from the ECHR. No slashing of inheritance tax. No confected row with the EU. Not even a rehashing of Starmer defending terrorists, yet.

Its like they have given up, called a GE on a whim and don't really have a detailed plan of attack.

They are mentally defeated already. Or it's some genius rope-a-dope strategy.

It's only 31 hours in! All that's happened is Sunak got wet and Farage ran away

i predict it will be a super boring campaign. Sunak will some drop some minor bollocks as he tries to do normal with invited public, twitter / ScottP will get very excited by them but public less so, Starmer will stay on (very limited) message with very coached answers to gotcha questions like what is a woman and future of Brexit. It will be a boreathon for 6 weeks as nobody promises anything and says very little.

Most campaigns are, changing very little, and enlightening us even less. It will be like five weeks of people trying to find something interesting to say about cricket, with an exciting finish tacked on the end.

bigjohnowls said:

My Party has made some policy announcements today.
Green Party Policies.

• Renationalising our NHS
• £70bn Wealth Tax
• 500,000 Council Homes
• £16 per hour min wage
• Universal Basic Income
• Rent Controls
• Abolishing Tuition Fees
• Recognition of Palestine
• Free Secondary School Meals
• Axe Two-Child Cap

Top Party and most people won't have a clue what they stand for.

MattW said:

bigjohnowls said:

My Party has made some policy announcements today.
Green Party Policies.

• Renationalising our NHS
• £70bn Wealth Tax
• 500,000 Council Homes
• £16 per hour min wage
• Universal Basic Income
• Rent Controls
• Abolishing Tuition Fees
• Recognition of Palestine
• Free Secondary School Meals
• Axe Two-Child Cap

Top Party and most people won't have a clue what they stand for.

This is a good illustration as to why whilst I like Greens in local power due to their detailed policies, nationally I think they can only be called loopy.

Add up the numbers on that.

rcs1000 said:

Kari Lake trailing badly in Arizona Senate race:

https://ktar.com/story/5574635/ruben-gallego-maintains-big-lead-over-kari-lake-in-race-for-arizona-us-senate-seat-poll-says/

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Vast Majority of Those Turned Away Over Voter ID in Local Elections Were ‘Non-White’ According to Polling Station Observers
https://bylinetimes.com/2024/05/23/vast-majority-of-those-turned-away-over-voter-id-in-local-elections-were-non-white-according-to-polling-station-observers/

kyf_100 said:

Cicero said:

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

LibDem seats are too high. Not *wildly* too high, but too high nonetheless.

I am not a spread bettor, the downside is too much for me. I had a spread markets one once but traded out and slept better. One concern is on liquidity.

So, take the LD spread. Its very unlikely that LDs will go below 10, and 15 would be a realistic minimum, so the maximum win is 22 times the stake. On the other side a 1997 style result could lose a similar sum. A Blue Wall blowout with collapsing Tory vote and LDs having a good election could conceivably reach 100 seats. Unlikely but possible. That would be 60 times the stake. The risks are just too asymmetrical for me.

The Tories have given up. Hearing astonishing things in places like Surrey. Feels like this could be an election where the old rules get junked.

The Conservatives have somehow managed to piss off absolutely everyone to the point you're left wondering who their natural constituency is.

If you're an oldie, you probably don't like the way you can't get a GP appointment or a hip replacement without going private (or waiting til your leg falls off). Having to be bank of mum and dad for grown up kids in their 30s and 40s who are struggling. Money in savings accounts eroded by cost of living crisis, affecting less savvy pensioners too.

Young-ish? Housing costs, spiralling rents, can't afford kids, zero job stability, lost opportunities to leave due to Brexit, too. Student loans following RPI which has shafted some. Leasehold trap has shafted first time buyers.

Working age entering middle age? Insane childcare costs, wages failing to keep up with inflation, mortgage costs doubling. Plus huge numbers of middle class professionals getting laid off in the last year.

Everyone - country feels like it's falling apart, schools literally falling apart, sewage being dumped into rivers, cost of sticking the heating on or doing a weekly shop has doubled. Life's little luxuries like a pint and a meal out with friends becoming unaffordable for many now. And the Conservatives droning on and on about endless culture war crap like Rwanda, trans and bashing disabled people on benefits, when most people are just struggling to survive.

Will Labour be significantly better? Maybe not. But it feels hard for even the staunchest Conservative supporter to justify giving this lot another 5 years in government - they're out of ideas and need a long period in opposition to figure out why they've managed to alienate most demographics across the country.

LostPassword said:

kyf_100 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

This has to be one of the worst starts to a political campaign in history. How does it feel compared to 1997?

I was a lot greener, but that felt optimistic. I was an instinctive little Tory boy, but one still felt Blair would be a positive change. That notion was dispelled fairly fast once he took power. It doesn't feel like that to me at the moment particularly.

The weird thing is the UK economy was actually starting to do well by 1997, after the total chaos of the early 90s. So there was a real optimism in the air that just isn't there now. By 1997 it felt like the first day of Spring, whereas economically speaking it feels like we're in the January of a grim winter that's been the January of a grim winter for at least the last three years. With little hope of anything getting better.

They say it's darkest before the dawn and all that, but as others have pointed out the sense of optimism that was there in '97 just isn't there today. It's less "things can only get better" and "well if the other lot get in, things can hardly get worse".

I think the underlying position that Britain finds itself in today is much weaker than in 1997, and so it's not just the point of the economic cycle that the country is in. Things are genuinely and generally worse.

Most notably, so many assets have been sold to foreign investors over the last 27 years, which haven't been balanced by British investments abroad, that every year there is a net flow of money out of the country to those foreign investors. The consequence of this is to create an economic headwind that the country has to overcome to make any forward progress.

The public debt is also much larger. Public sector net debt stood at 45% of GDP at the end of March 1997, and is now 97.9% (or 89.9% excluding the Bank of England).

In 1997 the UK had a trade surplus of more than £5bn. In 2023 the UK had a trade deficit of more than £33bn.

This is not a direction of travel that can continue indefinitely. The Truss Experience shows that Britain is edging closer to the precipice. In 2010 the Tories said that this was something they were going to turn around. And they have failed.

rcs1000 said:

MattW said:

bigjohnowls said:

My Party has made some policy announcements today.
Green Party Policies.

• Renationalising our NHS
• £70bn Wealth Tax
• 500,000 Council Homes
• £16 per hour min wage
• Universal Basic Income
• Rent Controls
• Abolishing Tuition Fees
• Recognition of Palestine
• Free Secondary School Meals
• Axe Two-Child Cap

Top Party and most people won't have a clue what they stand for.

This is a good illustration as to why whilst I like Greens in local power due to their detailed policies, nationally I think they can only be called loopy.

Add up the numbers on that.

The UBI and the £16 minimum wage are contradictory.

Heathener said:

LostPassword said:

kyf_100 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

This has to be one of the worst starts to a political campaign in history. How does it feel compared to 1997?

I was a lot greener, but that felt optimistic. I was an instinctive little Tory boy, but one still felt Blair would be a positive change. That notion was dispelled fairly fast once he took power. It doesn't feel like that to me at the moment particularly.

The weird thing is the UK economy was actually starting to do well by 1997, after the total chaos of the early 90s. So there was a real optimism in the air that just isn't there now. By 1997 it felt like the first day of Spring, whereas economically speaking it feels like we're in the January of a grim winter that's been the January of a grim winter for at least the last three years. With little hope of anything getting better.

They say it's darkest before the dawn and all that, but as others have pointed out the sense of optimism that was there in '97 just isn't there today. It's less "things can only get better" and "well if the other lot get in, things can hardly get worse".

I think the underlying position that Britain finds itself in today is much weaker than in 1997, and so it's not just the point of the economic cycle that the country is in. Things are genuinely and generally worse.

Most notably, so many assets have been sold to foreign investors over the last 27 years, which haven't been balanced by British investments abroad, that every year there is a net flow of money out of the country to those foreign investors. The consequence of this is to create an economic headwind that the country has to overcome to make any forward progress.

The public debt is also much larger. Public sector net debt stood at 45% of GDP at the end of March 1997, and is now 97.9% (or 89.9% excluding the Bank of England).

In 1997 the UK had a trade surplus of more than £5bn. In 2023 the UK had a trade deficit of more than £33bn.

This is not a direction of travel that can continue indefinitely. The Truss Experience shows that Britain is edging closer to the precipice. In 2010 the Tories said that this was something they were going to turn around. And they have failed.

Another really excellent post

pb at its best

FrancisUrquhart said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Foxy said:

Incidentally, there are constituency markets for a whole bunch of constituencies up on Bet365. I have had a few nibbles on SLAB and also on the Tories on the IOW East.

More to look through over the weekend.

You still have an account on bet365 that can bet more than 1p? In my experience if you vaguely look like you know what you are doing you are restricted to piddly bets in no time.on bet365.

The consensus on Betfair forums seems to be that Bet365 are the best bookmaker, and also the slowest to ban or restrict punters.

I don't know what they are smoking. Within the professional betting community I know, Bet365 are known as the absolute worst for restricting an account that looks like it might be run by somebody who isn't a total moron.

The slowest to ban are none of the known names like Bet365 or Ladbrokes etc, its the "sharp" bookies like Pinnacle.

Heathener said:

LostPassword said:

kyf_100 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

This has to be one of the worst starts to a political campaign in history. How does it feel compared to 1997?

I was a lot greener, but that felt optimistic. I was an instinctive little Tory boy, but one still felt Blair would be a positive change. That notion was dispelled fairly fast once he took power. It doesn't feel like that to me at the moment particularly.

The weird thing is the UK economy was actually starting to do well by 1997, after the total chaos of the early 90s. So there was a real optimism in the air that just isn't there now. By 1997 it felt like the first day of Spring, whereas economically speaking it feels like we're in the January of a grim winter that's been the January of a grim winter for at least the last three years. With little hope of anything getting better.

They say it's darkest before the dawn and all that, but as others have pointed out the sense of optimism that was there in '97 just isn't there today. It's less "things can only get better" and "well if the other lot get in, things can hardly get worse".

I think the underlying position that Britain finds itself in today is much weaker than in 1997, and so it's not just the point of the economic cycle that the country is in. Things are genuinely and generally worse.

Most notably, so many assets have been sold to foreign investors over the last 27 years, which haven't been balanced by British investments abroad, that every year there is a net flow of money out of the country to those foreign investors. The consequence of this is to create an economic headwind that the country has to overcome to make any forward progress.

The public debt is also much larger. Public sector net debt stood at 45% of GDP at the end of March 1997, and is now 97.9% (or 89.9% excluding the Bank of England).

In 1997 the UK had a trade surplus of more than £5bn. In 2023 the UK had a trade deficit of more than £33bn.

This is not a direction of travel that can continue indefinitely. The Truss Experience shows that Britain is edging closer to the precipice. In 2010 the Tories said that this was something they were going to turn around. And they have failed.

Another really excellent post

pb at its best

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Andy_JS said:

Tried to find somewhere I can bet on the SNP being wiped out in terms of seats, but in vain so far.

Have you checked the thread header? Selling SNP on the spreads whilst keeping an eye on your potential losses?

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Foxy said:

Incidentally, there are constituency markets for a whole bunch of constituencies up on Bet365. I have had a few nibbles on SLAB and also on the Tories on the IOW East.

More to look through over the weekend.

You still have an account on bet365 that can bet more than 1p? In my experience if you vaguely look like you know what you are doing you are restricted to piddly bets in no time.on bet365.

The consensus on Betfair forums seems to be that Bet365 are the best bookmaker, and also the slowest to ban or restrict punters.

I don't know what they are smoking. Within the professional betting community I know, Bet365 are known as the absolute worst for restricting an account that looks like it might be run by somebody who isn't a total moron.

The slowest to ban are none of the known names like Bet365 or Ladbrokes etc, its the "sharp" bookies like Pinnacle.

I bet almost exclusively on football and politics, and have accounts with Betfair, Smarkets, Bet365, Ladbrokes, Paddypower, Skybet, and William Hill. The only one to ever limit me to tiny stakes has been PP.

Well I answer is quite obvious. Betting on football is a massive mugs game, the market is super efficient if you want to get any real money on. Tony Bloom is widely regarded as one of the top football bettors in the world, employs a huge team of math / comp sci PhDs to model the games, and only able to beat specifically Asian Handicap market for an ROI of < 2%.

But @Foxy did get 1500/1 on Leicester winning the league, possibly the best PB bet of all time!

IIRC @isam spent several years as a professional football gambler, and his syndicate had £75k on the line every Saturday averaging £5k back. At that level, it’s all spreadsheets and trying to get inside information about injuries and player selection.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Scott_xP said:

LostPassword said:

Sunak had the advantage over everyone else of knowing that he was calling the election, so you might think he would have been a bit better prepared for doing so

Like making sure he had candidates in every seat, for example...

NEW

Conservative HQ have emailed asking for candidates in almost 100 seats

When candidates ask when the deadline is, they have been told it’s 48 hours, according to 2 I’ve spoken to

Some Tory associations are pretty livid at having been left in such an unprepared situation
https://x.com/PGMcNamara/status/1793702331961450798 (C4 politics dude)

Heathener said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Scott_xP said:

LostPassword said:

Sunak had the advantage over everyone else of knowing that he was calling the election, so you might think he would have been a bit better prepared for doing so

Like making sure he had candidates in every seat, for example...

NEW

Conservative HQ have emailed asking for candidates in almost 100 seats

When candidates ask when the deadline is, they have been told it’s 48 hours, according to 2 I’ve spoken to

Some Tory associations are pretty livid at having been left in such an unprepared situation
https://x.com/PGMcNamara/status/1793702331961450798 (C4 politics dude)

That’s extraordinary.

How do you manage to surprise yourself with the timing of an election you called?

What a mess.

Dura_Ace said:

Sandpit said:

Dura_Ace said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Foxy said:

Incidentally, there are constituency markets for a whole bunch of constituencies up on Bet365. I have had a few nibbles on SLAB and also on the Tories on the IOW East.

More to look through over the weekend.

You still have an account on bet365 that can bet more than 1p? In my experience if you vaguely look like you know what you are doing you are restricted to piddly bets in no time.on bet365.

The consensus on Betfair forums seems to be that Bet365 are the best bookmaker, and also the slowest to ban or restrict punters.

I don't know what they are smoking. Within the professional betting community I know, Bet365 are known as the absolute worst for restricting an account that looks like it might be run by somebody who isn't a total moron.

The slowest to ban are none of the known names like Bet365 or Ladbrokes etc, its the "sharp" bookies like Pinnacle.

The larger bookies have a massive amount of analytics running on their database, and can see really quickly when any individual starts making money from them. Four-figure bets are basically not allowed any more if you’ve won one at odds against, and a couple of friends in the UK say they’ve started going into random shops to place bets because of the online profiling shutting them down.

The bookies want you sitting in the pub betting on your phone, on one of the many poor-odds accumulators they advertise on the football matches. They have way more interest in the Euros than the election.

I once won over 14 grand in a single Moto3 bet with Bet365. Account closed, banned for life.

Lol, because the bookie can’t afford to pay someone to follow the ins and outs of Moto3, and realised that everyone betting on Moto3 knew way more about it than they did!

Exactly.

The interesting (and lucrative) thing about Moto3/Moto2 is that the 2-3 best riders leave the series every year so if a championship contender from the previous season gets "left behind", goes well in testing and is on a good team then there's your WC bet.