Stewart - nor me - are saying we want a negotiated settlement in Russia/Ukraine, only that is the most realistic thing that will happen at this stage. I don't think any serious person honestly believes at this stage that this war will end unless that happens.
It's not what I want - and I am happy to be called an appeaser by the usual people, fine - but I don't think pointing out a realistic outcome is a bad thing.
BREAKING: Byline Times has now identified a second hi-viz jacket-wearing man asking questions of Rishi Sunak at this morning's event as local Conservative councillor Ben Hall-Evans
So what, who really cares. People are not stupid. They will know this sort of thing goes on. This will not drive a single vote.
That has gone on from time immemorial. The afficionados seem to think that things like this are killer points, and game changers, when they aren't. Not even something like Brown's encounter with Mrs. Duffy actually had any impact on the vote.
I think it did to be honest.
Labour still wound up on 30% which is pretty much where they started.
Two things having contradictory impacts can net out to no change, but still have each had an impact.
I think it lost Brown any traditional swingback to the government that typically comes in campaigns (2017 being the noteworthy exception).
So for my patch of Norfolk, here are my initial predictions (will update mid campaign after getting some feedback and seeing polling) Norwich North - Lab gain Norwich South (my constituency) - Lab Hold, Greens second NW Nofollk - Con Hold SW Norfolk (Truss) - Con Hold Mid Norfolk - Con Hold South Norfolk - Lab Gain Broadland and Fakenham - Toss up Lab/Con lean Con Great Yarmouth - Toss up Lab/Con lean Lab North Norfolk - Toss up LD/Con lean LD Waveney Valley- Con win (new seat)
I'd be surprised if the Tories lose North and South Norfolk.
BREAKING: Byline Times has now identified a second hi-viz jacket-wearing man asking questions of Rishi Sunak at this morning's event as local Conservative councillor Ben Hall-Evans
Do you actually think the majority of voters will even register this ? Or care ?
Absolutely not. But it doesn't suggest to me that they've got a very component campaigning team, which does matter.
This happens at almost every event at every election. Politicians don't allow themselves to be exposed to bear traps
Actually i think if politicians can handle it, it can be a positive. Obviously Major and his soap box, but Cameron got ambushed by the Lib Dem activist who tried to use his disabled kid to shame Dave, but despite the media getting all excited at such a mic drop event, Cameron in the end came out of it fairly well as he was polite and engaged (despite the guy not doing it in good faith).
Gordon Brown and Mrs Duffy has to be one of the bigger clangers.
His problem was that he got caught letting out his real feelings for that demographic of people afterwards. The actual encounter was tricky, but not terrible.
A minor issue in this election might be high levels of postal and proxy voting in Scotland. Some of the most interesting results might come in quite early on the night, but also scope for councils to get overwhelmed in the run up.
Stewart - nor me - are saying we want a negotiated settlement in Russia/Ukraine, only that is the most realistic thing that will happen at this stage. I don't think any serious person honestly believes at this stage that this war will end unless that happens.
It's not what I want - and I am happy to be called an appeaser by the usual people, fine - but I don't think pointing out a realistic outcome is a bad thing.
As I noted at the end of the last thread, the Korean war ended when the Koreans had enough of it; similarly with Vietnam and Afghanistan. (Though each of those conflicts was different from the others in various respects.)
For now, Ukraine does not wish to give in to Putin - which is what a deal now would require. And that's not going to happen unless the west actively forces them to do so.
It's pretty well meaningless to say that a negotiated settlement is the most realistic outcome, as that's true of the vast majority of conflicts. What we're arguing about is what happens before that.
People are disagreeing about even that, as above.
The war cannot go on forever can it? The money will run out at some point. Do you think they'll be fighting for decades? What's your timeline?
That depends on whether we give Ukraine the tools to defeat the invasion or not. They either win, or they lose; how long that takes is largely down to us. Unless Putin simply gives up, which seems highly unlikely.
Okay so let's interrogate this a bit more, what tools do Ukraine need to win?
BREAKING: Byline Times has now identified a second hi-viz jacket-wearing man asking questions of Rishi Sunak at this morning's event as local Conservative councillor Ben Hall-Evans
Do you actually think the majority of voters will even register this ? Or care ?
Absolutely not. But it doesn't suggest to me that they've got a very component campaigning team, which does matter.
This happens at almost every event at every election. Politicians don't allow themselves to be exposed to bear traps
Actually i think if politicians can handle it, it can be a positive. Obviously Major and his soap box, but Cameron got ambushed by the Lib Dem activist who tried to use his disabled kid to shame Dave, but despite the media getting all excited at such a mic drop event, Cameron in the end came out of it fairly well as he was polite and engaged (despite the guy not doing it in good faith), and came across fairly well.
What is weird about Sunak is his family background was fairly normal upto 16, but he is mow clearly massively detached from normal life.
I think the point being made is that the "bear trap" is being caught out being thrown low-ball questions by their own party hack posing as a member of the public.
You're talking about questions from a genuine member of the public or opposing party hack. I agree, a capable politician can come out of this okay. Often, people watching it will say, "I think the punter came across as bloody rude, and the politician listened, empaphised, and remained calm".
Actually, Brown with "that bigoted woman" was an example for the actual interaction. He was caught out by the hot mic afterwards... but he'd actually come across as perfectly fine with her, and she'd come across as rude and aggressive.
BREAKING: Byline Times has now identified a second hi-viz jacket-wearing man asking questions of Rishi Sunak at this morning's event as local Conservative councillor Ben Hall-Evans
Do you actually think the majority of voters will even register this ? Or care ?
Absolutely not. But it doesn't suggest to me that they've got a very component campaigning team, which does matter.
This happens at almost every event at every election. Politicians don't allow themselves to be exposed to bear traps
Actually i think if politicians can handle it, it can be a positive. Obviously Major and his soap box, but Cameron got ambushed by the Lib Dem activist who tried to use his disabled kid to shame Dave, but despite the media getting all excited at such a mic drop event, Cameron in the end came out of it fairly well as he was polite and engaged (despite the guy not doing it in good faith).
Gordon Brown and Mrs Duffy has to be one of the bigger clangers.
His problem was that he got caught letting out his real feelings for that demographic of people afterwards. The actual encounter was tricky, but not terrible.
and then there was Prescott smacking the voter
I think Brown v Mrs Duffy was a big negative for Brown - Prescott v the egg thrower was probably a positive for Prescott
Literally day one of the campaign, failing to organise a piss-up in a brewery.
The Tories are very cunningly using the Argentina 2022 World Cup playbook this election. Start shockingly then slowly grind away and allow the tiny genius in the team to lead to eventual and surprise victory against the overwhelming favourites.
Close of nominations in the 2024 general election is 4pm on Friday 7 June, 19 full working days before official polling day. So the political parties now have a full fortnight to pick and nominate their candidates, then get the signatures and submit the forms.…
By my reckoning Labour have about 100 vacancies still to fill, and the Conservatives 190, but new candidates are being announced every few minutes right now.
BREAKING: Byline Times has now identified a second hi-viz jacket-wearing man asking questions of Rishi Sunak at this morning's event as local Conservative councillor Ben Hall-Evans
Do you actually think the majority of voters will even register this ? Or care ?
Absolutely not. But it doesn't suggest to me that they've got a very component campaigning team, which does matter.
This happens at almost every event at every election. Politicians don't allow themselves to be exposed to bear traps
Actually i think if politicians can handle it, it can be a positive. Obviously Major and his soap box, but Cameron got ambushed by the Lib Dem activist who tried to use his disabled kid to shame Dave, but despite the media getting all excited at such a mic drop event, Cameron in the end came out of it fairly well as he was polite and engaged (despite the guy not doing it in good faith).
Gordon Brown and Mrs Duffy has to be one of the bigger clangers.
His problem was that he got caught letting out his real feelings for that demographic of people afterwards. The actual encounter was tricky, but not terrible.
and then there was Prescott smacking the voter
I think Brown v Mrs Duffy was a big negative for Brown - Prescott v the egg thrower was probably a positive for Prescott
So for my patch of Norfolk, here are my initial predictions (will update mid campaign after getting some feedback and seeing polling) Norwich North - Lab gain Norwich South (my constituency) - Lab Hold, Greens second NW Nofollk - Con Hold SW Norfolk (Truss) - Con Hold Mid Norfolk - Con Hold South Norfolk - Lab Gain Broadland and Fakenham - Toss up Lab/Con lean Con Great Yarmouth - Toss up Lab/Con lean Lab North Norfolk - Toss up LD/Con lean LD Waveney Valley- Con win (new seat)
Thanks for sharing. The ones that I am most interested in are South Norfolk and Broadland. I have to admit that I understand the polling calculators show Lab winning, but I really struggle to actually see Lab winning these big rural seats. The one I would have expected to be more likely is NW Norfolk as at least there's a reasonable sized town in King's Lynn
My reading is Labour fell away hard in NW Norfolk and its too far back this time. South Norfolk is full of a more Labour demographic, younger families and Bacon's personal vote goes. Broadland has parts of suburban Norwich which will go harder Labour this time (Catton, Spixworth etc) but the rural vote SHOULD hold it for Con
So the SPIN spreads are up for GE seats. The midpoint is Starmer winning by the same margin as Blair did in 1997. My first thought is that's a nice Lab sell opportunity for "mountain to climb" punters. If they're right it's a good profit, and if they're wrong and Starmer actually does pull off a Blair style landslide, despite starting from miles further back, they're still flat.
Mrs Duffy aside, Brown actually managed to run a decent campaign in 2010. A Fear the Tories campaign.
Sunak will run a Fear Labour campaign, the question is whether it will be as effective. My suspicion is very much no. I still think around 200 seats for the Tories though. I am not convinced that they are at extinction level.
So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
and a terrible one , even if you believed in the cause (I don't) its hardly what the nation has been crying out for - Instead its typical of him - its safe ,unoriginal (NZ did it first) and liberal middle class so wont upset anyone in the professional protest payroll
I wonder what percentage are fruitcakes? I presume some journalist has now been tasked with the exciting job of reading through all their social media accounts.
I expect a higher percentage than there will be in the two main parties and some hapless hack will be going through the social media history of all of the main parties candidates.
I wonder if they will get that many given someone here was saying they have to fund their candidacy.
I see Eleanor Laing is standing down. The next parliament will require some new deputy speakers as Rosie Winterton is also going (announced some time ago)
So for my patch of Norfolk, here are my initial predictions (will update mid campaign after getting some feedback and seeing polling) Norwich North - Lab gain Norwich South (my constituency) - Lab Hold, Greens second NW Nofollk - Con Hold SW Norfolk (Truss) - Con Hold Mid Norfolk - Con Hold South Norfolk - Lab Gain Broadland and Fakenham - Toss up Lab/Con lean Con Great Yarmouth - Toss up Lab/Con lean Lab North Norfolk - Toss up LD/Con lean LD Waveney Valley- Con win (new seat)
I'd be surprised if the Tories lose North and South Norfolk.
North is knife edge South they lose Bacon's personal vote and there's a hardcore 40% non Tory vote with LDs getting squeezed out and the polling decline to factor in. Both going would not be a surprise to me but let's see the polling as we go
BREAKING: Byline Times has now identified a second hi-viz jacket-wearing man asking questions of Rishi Sunak at this morning's event as local Conservative councillor Ben Hall-Evans
So what, who really cares. People are not stupid. They will know this sort of thing goes on. This will not drive a single vote.
That has gone on from time immemorial. The afficionados seem to think that things like this are killer points, and game changers, when they aren't. Not even something like Brown's encounter with Mrs. Duffy actually had any impact on the vote.
You're quite right and this will be one of the more tedious parts of the campaign. Twitter will be full of this sort of junk.
Well, SKS fans would certainly have to explain that.
Can you explain why? All that matters is whether you win a majority or not. As somebody formally of the "2017 was actually a win" narrative, I can see how insane it now sounds.
It was a joke.
Can I suggest an emoticon? I didn't read it as a joke and you often post in a serious manner so it is hard to read it.
Sorry. Didn't think it was necessary as a well-worn meme on here.
BREAKING: Byline Times has now identified a second hi-viz jacket-wearing man asking questions of Rishi Sunak at this morning's event as local Conservative councillor Ben Hall-Evans
So what, who really cares. People are not stupid. They will know this sort of thing goes on. This will not drive a single vote.
That has gone on from time immemorial. The afficionados seem to think that things like this are killer points, and game changers, when they aren't. Not even something like Brown's encounter with Mrs. Duffy actually had any impact on the vote.
I think it did to be honest.
Labour still wound up on 30% which is pretty much where they started.
Right now, the vibe is that Sunak is a laughing stock and the Tories are in chaos. So everything will be filtered through that lens.
At some point, the media attention will turn to Starmer as the prospective PM and gaffes (there will be some) that occur there.
I should add this is probably my favourite bet of 2024 (and I doubt that will change). Partially because I think it is major value, and partially because it would be very funny if it came off.
BREAKING: Byline Times has now identified a second hi-viz jacket-wearing man asking questions of Rishi Sunak at this morning's event as local Conservative councillor Ben Hall-Evans
So what, who really cares. People are not stupid. They will know this sort of thing goes on. This will not drive a single vote.
That has gone on from time immemorial. The afficionados seem to think that things like this are killer points, and game changers, when they aren't. Not even something like Brown's encounter with Mrs. Duffy actually had any impact on the vote.
I think it did to be honest.
Labour still wound up on 30% which is pretty much where they started.
Right now, the vibe is that Sunak is a laughing stock and the Tories are in chaos. So everything will be filtered through that lens.
At some point, the media attention will turn to Starmer as the prospective PM and gaffes (there will be some) that occur there.
I don't expect either to have much effect.
What happens when Starmer is revealed as a Mossad agent ?
I should add this is probably my favourite bet of 2024 (and I doubt that will change). Partially because I think it is major value, and partially because it would be very funny if it came off.
The value is in bets like that.
I'm less interested in guessing bets on exact vote shares and seats (unless very clear value) because the MoE is potentially so broad.
So for my patch of Norfolk, here are my initial predictions (will update mid campaign after getting some feedback and seeing polling) Norwich North - Lab gain Norwich South (my constituency) - Lab Hold, Greens second NW Nofollk - Con Hold SW Norfolk (Truss) - Con Hold Mid Norfolk - Con Hold South Norfolk - Lab Gain Broadland and Fakenham - Toss up Lab/Con lean Con Great Yarmouth - Toss up Lab/Con lean Lab North Norfolk - Toss up LD/Con lean LD Waveney Valley- Con win (new seat)
I'd be surprised if the Tories lose North and South Norfolk.
North is knife edge South they lose Bacon's personal vote and there's a hardcore 40% non Tory vote with LDs getting squeezed out and the polling decline to factor in. Both going would not be a surprise to me but let's see the polling as we go
The problem for the LDs in North is that their strength was heavily based on Norman Lamb's personal vote.
BREAKING: Byline Times has now identified a second hi-viz jacket-wearing man asking questions of Rishi Sunak at this morning's event as local Conservative councillor Ben Hall-Evans
Do you actually think the majority of voters will even register this ? Or care ?
Absolutely not. But it doesn't suggest to me that they've got a very component campaigning team, which does matter.
This happens at almost every event at every election. Politicians don't allow themselves to be exposed to bear traps
Actually i think if politicians can handle it, it can be a positive. Obviously Major and his soap box, but Cameron got ambushed by the Lib Dem activist who tried to use his disabled kid to shame Dave, but despite the media getting all excited at such a mic drop event, Cameron in the end came out of it fairly well as he was polite and engaged (despite the guy not doing it in good faith).
Gordon Brown and Mrs Duffy has to be one of the bigger clangers.
His problem was that he got caught letting out his real feelings for that demographic of people afterwards. The actual encounter was tricky, but not terrible.
and then there was Prescott smacking the voter
I think Brown v Mrs Duffy was a big negative for Brown - Prescott v the egg thrower was probably a positive for Prescott
So Brown should have punched Duffy?
He should have given her a Rodney King-style beating.
So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.
The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.
Is he knowledgeable and passionate about IT? I thought he was more of a numbers for analysing companies man and it’s showing that you can’t run a country the same way as a multinational.
We’ve seen quite a few successful top business types fail at politics, mind you we’ve seen lots of everyone fail at politics over the decades, maybe we need to try something new like ex footballers.
So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.
The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.
I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.
He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.
BREAKING: Byline Times has now identified a second hi-viz jacket-wearing man asking questions of Rishi Sunak at this morning's event as local Conservative councillor Ben Hall-Evans
Do you actually think the majority of voters will even register this ? Or care ?
Absolutely not. But it doesn't suggest to me that they've got a very component campaigning team, which does matter.
This happens at almost every event at every election. Politicians don't allow themselves to be exposed to bear traps
Actually i think if politicians can handle it, it can be a positive. Obviously Major and his soap box, but Cameron got ambushed by the Lib Dem activist who tried to use his disabled kid to shame Dave, but despite the media getting all excited at such a mic drop event, Cameron in the end came out of it fairly well as he was polite and engaged (despite the guy not doing it in good faith).
Gordon Brown and Mrs Duffy has to be one of the bigger clangers.
His problem was that he got caught letting out his real feelings for that demographic of people afterwards. The actual encounter was tricky, but not terrible.
and then there was Prescott smacking the voter
I think Brown v Mrs Duffy was a big negative for Brown - Prescott v the egg thrower was probably a positive for Prescott
So Brown should have punched Duffy?
He should have given her a Rodney King-style beating.
It was very revealing for how the elites see those concerned about immigration though.
Does that make much practicable difference? Jezza habitually voted against Labour governments anyway, so it's not as if Sir Keir will be experiencing anything new.
Question. If you Baxter today's YouGov poll you get to about 43 seats for the Tories.
Is there anyone who thinks this, or something approaching it, will actually occur?
As we saw with Labour in Scotland in 2015, when you reach a certain low point with FPTP, all the dominoes can start to topple, so it's possible, but I think not.
YouGov overstated Labour by around 10% in the London Mayoral election. Doesn't necessarily mean the same applies with national voting intention of course...
BREAKING: Byline Times has now identified a second hi-viz jacket-wearing man asking questions of Rishi Sunak at this morning's event as local Conservative councillor Ben Hall-Evans
So what, who really cares. People are not stupid. They will know this sort of thing goes on. This will not drive a single vote.
That has gone on from time immemorial. The afficionados seem to think that things like this are killer points, and game changers, when they aren't. Not even something like Brown's encounter with Mrs. Duffy actually had any impact on the vote.
You're quite right and this will be one of the more tedious parts of the campaign. Twitter will be full of this sort of junk.
I don't even know why the remark in Wales is meant to be a "gaffe". Welsh people aren't just interested in the Wales football team.
So for my patch of Norfolk, here are my initial predictions (will update mid campaign after getting some feedback and seeing polling) Norwich North - Lab gain Norwich South (my constituency) - Lab Hold, Greens second NW Nofollk - Con Hold SW Norfolk (Truss) - Con Hold Mid Norfolk - Con Hold South Norfolk - Lab Gain Broadland and Fakenham - Toss up Lab/Con lean Con Great Yarmouth - Toss up Lab/Con lean Lab North Norfolk - Toss up LD/Con lean LD Waveney Valley- Con win (new seat)
I'd be surprised if the Tories lose North and South Norfolk.
North is knife edge South they lose Bacon's personal vote and there's a hardcore 40% non Tory vote with LDs getting squeezed out and the polling decline to factor in. Both going would not be a surprise to me but let's see the polling as we go
The problem for the LDs in North is that their strength was heavily based on Norman Lamb's personal vote.
Yes true but they have a very strong council presence and ground game and there is no Labour interest at all here
Not mentioned unless I missed it, however any depressed turnout due to Voter ID requirements is a small further tilt in favour of this tip. On May 4th that was put at -0.2%. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65602231
I'm on at a modest £25. Thanks Pip.
First toe in the water, except for Andy Street for next Tory leader at 100:1, since a slightly painful experience with the Theresa May election.
So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.
The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.
Is he knowledgeable and passionate about IT? I thought he was more of a numbers for analysing companies man and it’s showing that you can’t run a country the same way as a multinational.
We’ve seen quite a few successful top business types fail at politics, mind you we’ve seen lots of everyone fail at politics over the decades, maybe we need to try something new like ex footballers.
Of course this isn't really a headache for Starmer at all. Rather an opportunity to push once more his message that Labour has changed and he is nothing like Corbyn. Even if he loses one seat, the media coverage is a boon in 630 seats elsewhere.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 33m Dangerously dark mood amongst Tory MPs. Cold fury at what they see as Sunak bouncing them into an unwinnable election. Does not bode well for unity during the campaign. Would be amazed if we don’t see some sort of rupture before polling day.
For this reason I still half-believe the election will be in January and yesterday's announcement was just a dream, as a July election is clearly against the interests of the Conservative Party and also of Conservative MPs. It is the type of half-cocked, spur of the moment decision associated with the sort of man who absent-mindedly steps out into the rain without an umbrella.
I sort of know what you mean. Did that really happen? Or will I wake up having sleepwalked into a shower, not Sunak looking asleep in a shower, I dreamt it.
It was literally a man saying “trust me. I have a plan.” Standing in the rain without his umbrella. 🫣
It just all feels a bit surreal.
But it’s important to get off to a good start with these things, especially with element of surprise? But it’s not been a sure fitted start from the Conservatives ☹️
So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.
The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.
Is he knowledgeable and passionate about IT? I thought he was more of a numbers for analysing companies man and it’s showing that you can’t run a country the same way as a multinational.
We’ve seen quite a few successful top business types fail at politics, mind you we’ve seen lots of everyone fail at politics over the decades, maybe we need to try something new like ex footballers.
Rashford's free this summer.
Since he ditched the PR lady and got his brother to do the job, things have gone a bit south.
"total net migration in the whole of the 1980s and 1990s was 606,000. In short the UK is experiencing more net immigration in a single year than we had in the last two decades of the 20th century."
Starmer will have to do something about it, whether his party likes it or not.
I think if a journalist gave Starmer five representative biographies of recent immigrants and was told to pick two to approve and three to reject he wouldn't or couldn't do it. He'd find it too unpleasant and politically difficult to do so. But that's the sort of harshness required to get back to the ballpark of what was already perceived as too much immigration.
The problem is no member of the ruling classes can or will either. Too scared of being labelled racist, elitist, or worried about being unpopular with whatever sector of business / public sector their choices might signal a restriction.
And of course, there will always be edge cases, see attempts at raising the minimum salary required for a visa. And again every politician folds immediately. Sunak's £35k a year policy got binned within weeks.
Thing is, it's going to be like Brexit isn't it. Very few politicians wanted Brexit, but there was enough public pressure that it happened anyway.
The public consistently want lower immigrantion, and the amount they care about it is steadily increasing. There presently isn't a party that seriously intends to deliver lower immigration that other than Reform. At some point, either the Tories will win having become credible on the issue, and then slam the gates shut, or they will be destroyed and replaced by another party which will reduce immigration.
So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.
The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.
Is he knowledgeable and passionate about IT? I thought he was more of a numbers for analysing companies man and it’s showing that you can’t run a country the same way as a multinational.
We’ve seen quite a few successful top business types fail at politics, mind you we’ve seen lots of everyone fail at politics over the decades, maybe we need to try something new like ex footballers.
The skillsets for being a good business leader and politician seem quite different.
I do think the Conservatives' A List proved dreadful.
- Shadow cabinet will meet tomorrow to receive their marching orders - Labour parliamentary staffers have been seconded to HQ - Source: "We’re going to be really, really aggressive. [The Tories] have got a huge price to pay for what they’ve done, and we’ll make them pay.”
Of course this isn't really a headache for Starmer at all. Rather an opportunity to push once more his message that Labour has changed and he is nothing like Corbyn. Even if he loses one seat, the media coverage is a boon in 630 seats elsewhere.
Maybe. But maybe Starmer and Team saying Changed Labour is spin, a damned lie, and 50% of members still prefer Corbynism on economy and spending splurge if not pro Hamas anti Israel as well. But it’s still a great header Quincey. I have Labour getting 39%, no where near either % or votes Boris got last time. This is because although Conservatives lower, the transfers are not all to Labour.
So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.
The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.
I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.
He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.
Yes. It was a poison chalice that he took on. Credit to him for doing so. He had a lucky break (or unlucky depending upon how you look at it) when he got the unexpected break of Chancellor from Treasury Secretary because of circumstances.
I feel a bit sorry for him because he obviously can't stand down before the election and after he will be leader of the opposition and presumably will resign and become a backbencher after a leadership contest. Unlike someone like Heath I can't imagine he will want to stay around for 5 years. Maybe he takes a job that forces him to resign.
Of course this isn't really a headache for Starmer at all. Rather an opportunity to push once more his message that Labour has changed and he is nothing like Corbyn. Even if he loses one seat, the media coverage is a boon in 630 seats elsewhere.
Could be more a headache for the Labour Left. If they support Jeremy they risk being booted out.
Stonkingly good price that. Opened another skybet account specifically for it (my previous one having been restricted yonks ago) and maxed out. Thanks @Quincel
If this is true, he's either a slow learner, or not getting particularly incisive advice.
Meet Keir Starmer: Britain’s next prime minister?
https://www.politico.eu/article/keir-starmer-labour-party-prime-minister-british-elections/ ..Starmer’s public style is famously methodical, often to the point of dry. He tries to evolve by micro-analyzing his own performance — his team used to watch video clips of him at Prime Minister’s Questions, his main weekly clash with Sunak, pausing the tape to point out what he had done well and where improvements could be made...
So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.
The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.
Is he knowledgeable and passionate about IT? I thought he was more of a numbers for analysing companies man and it’s showing that you can’t run a country the same way as a multinational.
We’ve seen quite a few successful top business types fail at politics, mind you we’ve seen lots of everyone fail at politics over the decades, maybe we need to try something new like ex footballers.
The skillsets for being a good business leader and politician seem quite different.
I do think the Conservatives' A List proved dreadful.
It wasn't an A List. It was a Diversity list and a cronies list.
So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.
The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.
I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.
He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.
Yes. It was a poison chalice that he took on. Credit to him for doing so. He had a lucky break (or unlucky depending upon how you look at it) when he got the unexpected break of Chancellor from Treasury Secretary because of circumstances.
I feel a bit sorry for him because he obviously can't stand down before the election and after he will be leader of the opposition and presumably will resign and become a backbencher after a leadership contest. Unlike someone like Heath I can't imagine he will want to stay around for 5 years. Maybe he takes a job that forces him to resign.
It does ruin my Rishi Sunak Tory leader exit bet for 2025, I must admit.
Close of nominations in the 2024 general election is 4pm on Friday 7 June, 19 full working days before official polling day. So the political parties now have a full fortnight to pick and nominate their candidates, then get the signatures and submit the forms.…
By my reckoning Labour have about 100 vacancies still to fill, and the Conservatives 190, but new candidates are being announced every few minutes right now.
Those 100 Labour vacancies are nearly all in unwinnable seats (though who knows). Labour's candidates are in place in all their safe and target seats, with one or two notable exceptions (Corbyn's and Abbott's).
Of course this isn't really a headache for Starmer at all. Rather an opportunity to push once more his message that Labour has changed and he is nothing like Corbyn. Even if he loses one seat, the media coverage is a boon in 630 seats elsewhere.
Could be more a headache for the Labour Left. If they support Jeremy they risk being booted out.
BREAKING: Byline Times has now identified a second hi-viz jacket-wearing man asking questions of Rishi Sunak at this morning's event as local Conservative councillor Ben Hall-Evans
So what, who really cares. People are not stupid. They will know this sort of thing goes on. This will not drive a single vote.
That has gone on from time immemorial. The afficionados seem to think that things like this are killer points, and game changers, when they aren't. Not even something like Brown's encounter with Mrs. Duffy actually had any impact on the vote.
You're quite right and this will be one of the more tedious parts of the campaign. Twitter will be full of this sort of junk.
I don't even know why the remark in Wales is meant to be a "gaffe". Welsh people aren't just interested in the Wales football team.
I don't even know why the remark in Wales is meant to be a "gaffe". Welsh people aren't just interested in the Wales football team.
I thought that too. It is not a gaffe in any way, shape or form.
Are people really only invested in a sporting contest if they support one of the teams or players in it.
He's been a largely policy free zone. As someone who follows politics, what can I name? Pharmacists being able to prescribe (a good idea, but akin to shuffling the deckchairs on the titanic), and Rwanda (a costly idea that may or may not work, but a drop in the ocean compared to the huge problems created by legal immigration, which dwarfs the number of small boat people by an order or two of magnitude).
My sense is that the public don't really know Rishi at all, other than that he's rich and a bit geeky. And gaffe prone. So I think far from closing the gap during the election campaign, it will get worse for the Conservatives. The more they see of him, the less people will like him. And most people have made their minds up already to punish the government for the last few years of pain - soaring gas bills, insane weekly shop price rises, etc.
The last few years have been nothing but pain for a lot of people, and that is what they will remember on polling day.
Close of nominations in the 2024 general election is 4pm on Friday 7 June, 19 full working days before official polling day. So the political parties now have a full fortnight to pick and nominate their candidates, then get the signatures and submit the forms.…
By my reckoning Labour have about 100 vacancies still to fill, and the Conservatives 190, but new candidates are being announced every few minutes right now.
Those 100 Labour vacancies are nearly all in unwinnable seats (though who knows). Labour's candidates are in place in all their safe and target seats, with one or two notable exceptions (Corbyn's and Abbott's).
Who knows, precisely, Jared O'Mara was selected for an "unwinnable" seat after all.
So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.
The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.
I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.
He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.
Exactly. We're not looking at any sort of personal tragedy here. He's been more lucky than unlucky and I'd say he's overachieved in politics. If you'd have told him in 2019 when he'd been in politics for a minute and wasn't even 40 years old that he'd be PM in 3 years he'd have just giggled.
Mrs Duffy aside, Brown actually managed to run a decent campaign in 2010. A Fear the Tories campaign.
Sunak will run a Fear Labour campaign, the question is whether it will be as effective. My suspicion is very much no. I still think around 200 seats for the Tories though. I am not convinced that they are at extinction level.
Brown had Scotland. Labour made gains there in 2010. He also had a very efficient vote distribution in England that kept losses down despite the Tories being over 12 points ahead. I am not sure Sunak has either of those.
So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.
The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.
I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.
He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.
Yes. It was a poison chalice that he took on. Credit to him for doing so. He had a lucky break (or unlucky depending upon how you look at it) when he got the unexpected break of Chancellor from Treasury Secretary because of circumstances.
I feel a bit sorry for him because he obviously can't stand down before the election and after he will be leader of the opposition and presumably will resign and become a backbencher after a leadership contest. Unlike someone like Heath I can't imagine he will want to stay around for 5 years. Maybe he takes a job that forces him to resign.
It does ruin my Rishi Sunak Tory leader exit bet for 2025, I must admit.
What exactly is your bet? He may be a caretaker leader for some time.
If the Tories are sensible they shouldn't rush into anything (yeah I know it might also be a bloodbath afterwards), but I would guess they would want to line it all up for the conference season.
So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.
The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.
I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.
He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.
Yes. It was a poison chalice that he took on. Credit to him for doing so. He had a lucky break (or unlucky depending upon how you look at it) when he got the unexpected break of Chancellor from Treasury Secretary because of circumstances.
I feel a bit sorry for him because he obviously can't stand down before the election and after he will be leader of the opposition and presumably will resign and become a backbencher after a leadership contest. Unlike someone like Heath I can't imagine he will want to stay around for 5 years. Maybe he takes a job that forces him to resign.
It does ruin my Rishi Sunak Tory leader exit bet for 2025, I must admit.
What exactly is your bet? He may be a caretaker leader for some time.
If the Tories are sensible they shouldn't rush into anything (yeah I know it might also be a bloodbath afterwards), but I would guess they would want to line it all up for the conference season.
No chance he'd be interim leader for six months. He may not be for very long at all - it's all a bit demeaning for an ex-PM to do PMQs as a stop-gap opposition leader.
BREAKING: Byline Times has now identified a second hi-viz jacket-wearing man asking questions of Rishi Sunak at this morning's event as local Conservative councillor Ben Hall-Evans
Do you actually think the majority of voters will even register this ? Or care ?
Absolutely not. But it doesn't suggest to me that they've got a very component campaigning team, which does matter.
This happens at almost every event at every election. Politicians don't allow themselves to be exposed to bear traps
Actually i think if politicians can handle it, it can be a positive. Obviously Major and his soap box, but Cameron got ambushed by the Lib Dem activist who tried to use his disabled kid to shame Dave, but despite the media getting all excited at such a mic drop event, Cameron in the end came out of it fairly well as he was polite and engaged (despite the guy not doing it in good faith).
Gordon Brown and Mrs Duffy has to be one of the bigger clangers.
His problem was that he got caught letting out his real feelings for that demographic of people afterwards. The actual encounter was tricky, but not terrible.
and then there was Prescott smacking the voter
I think Brown v Mrs Duffy was a big negative for Brown - Prescott v the egg thrower was probably a positive for Prescott
Gordon went up in my estimation after that - but I suppose I'd be in a minority there.
So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.
The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.
I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.
He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.
Yes. It was a poison chalice that he took on. Credit to him for doing so. He had a lucky break (or unlucky depending upon how you look at it) when he got the unexpected break of Chancellor from Treasury Secretary because of circumstances.
I feel a bit sorry for him because he obviously can't stand down before the election and after he will be leader of the opposition and presumably will resign and become a backbencher after a leadership contest. Unlike someone like Heath I can't imagine he will want to stay around for 5 years. Maybe he takes a job that forces him to resign.
It does ruin my Rishi Sunak Tory leader exit bet for 2025, I must admit.
What exactly is your bet? He may be a caretaker leader for some time.
If the Tories are sensible they shouldn't rush into anything (yeah I know it might also be a bloodbath afterwards), but I would guess they would want to line it all up for the conference season.
"If the Tories are sensible" - I think I may have discovered a small, well hidden flaw in this line of reasoning.
So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.
The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.
I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.
He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.
Yes. It was a poison chalice that he took on. Credit to him for doing so. He had a lucky break (or unlucky depending upon how you look at it) when he got the unexpected break of Chancellor from Treasury Secretary because of circumstances.
I feel a bit sorry for him because he obviously can't stand down before the election and after he will be leader of the opposition and presumably will resign and become a backbencher after a leadership contest. Unlike someone like Heath I can't imagine he will want to stay around for 5 years. Maybe he takes a job that forces him to resign.
It does ruin my Rishi Sunak Tory leader exit bet for 2025, I must admit.
What exactly is your bet? He may be a caretaker leader for some time.
If the Tories are sensible they shouldn't rush into anything (yeah I know it might also be a bloodbath afterwards), but I would guess they would want to line it all up for the conference season.
No chance he'd be interim leader for six months. He may not be for very long at all - it's all a bit demeaning for an ex-PM to do PMQs as a stop-gap opposition leader.
Yep I agree. Just trying to give @Casino_Royale some hope for his bet. It's not dead yet. Almost, but it is still twitching.
Of course this isn't really a headache for Starmer at all. Rather an opportunity to push once more his message that Labour has changed and he is nothing like Corbyn. Even if he loses one seat, the media coverage is a boon in 630 seats elsewhere.
And standing against Labour means leaving (or being expelled from) the party. Though it would be funny if Jeremy Corbyn stands in Starmer's constituency, and even funnier if he wins.
Comments
It’s when you negotiate that matters
I think it lost Brown any traditional swingback to the government that typically comes in campaigns (2017 being the noteworthy exception).
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eiM-RzPHyGs
You're talking about questions from a genuine member of the public or opposing party hack. I agree, a capable politician can come out of this okay. Often, people watching it will say, "I think the punter came across as bloody rude, and the politician listened, empaphised, and remained calm".
Actually, Brown with "that bigoted woman" was an example for the actual interaction. He was caught out by the hot mic afterwards... but he'd actually come across as perfectly fine with her, and she'd come across as rude and aggressive.
You just can’t see it yet.
Can't remember who though.
By my reckoning Labour have about 100 vacancies still to fill, and the Conservatives 190, but new candidates are being announced every few minutes right now.
https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1793563753717658027
South Norfolk is full of a more Labour demographic, younger families and Bacon's personal vote goes.
Broadland has parts of suburban Norwich which will go harder Labour this time (Catton, Spixworth etc) but the rural vote SHOULD hold it for Con
Rishi Sunak taking a brave approach to small talk at a brewery in Wales.
He asked workers if they're looking forward to 'all the football'. One quickly pointed out that Wales haven't qualified for the Euros 😬
Sunak will run a Fear Labour campaign, the question is whether it will be as effective. My suspicion is very much no.
I still think around 200 seats for the Tories though. I am not convinced that they are at extinction level.
Thanks PIP that is amazing value just took the 8/1 and I was offering someone on here evens
I wonder if they will get that many given someone here was saying they have to fund their candidacy.
South they lose Bacon's personal vote and there's a hardcore 40% non Tory vote with LDs getting squeezed out and the polling decline to factor in. Both going would not be a surprise to me but let's see the polling as we go
At some point, the media attention will turn to Starmer as the prospective PM and gaffes (there will be some) that occur there.
I don't expect either to have much effect.
https://x.com/Telegraph/status/1793617289767764143
I'm less interested in guessing bets on exact vote shares and seats (unless very clear value) because the MoE is potentially so broad.
The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.
You don't get away with lying to parliament, the press, and the First Minister.
Pressure to resign and have a by-election on the same day as the general (i.e. at no extra cost) will now be massive...
Utterly baffled by John Swinney's approach to this.
Maybe you could argue the 27 days is excessive. But there is no political capital to be gained from fighting this in the way he has.
SNP appear to have lost their senses
https://x.com/conor_matchett/status/1793605815619977657
We’ve seen quite a few successful top business types fail at politics, mind you we’ve seen lots of everyone fail at politics over the decades, maybe we need to try something new like ex footballers.
He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.
https://www.wigantoday.net/news/politics/two-wigan-borough-mps-to-stand-down-at-general-election-4639421
YouGov overstated Labour by around 10% in the London Mayoral election. Doesn't necessarily mean the same applies with national voting intention of course...
Notional result 2019
SNP 45.3%
Con 41.1%
LD 8.0%
Lab 5.0%
Brexit 0.7%
https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/2409
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65602231
I'm on at a modest £25. Thanks Pip.
First toe in the water, except for Andy Street for next Tory leader at 100:1, since a slightly painful experience with the Theresa May election.
It was literally a man saying “trust me. I have a plan.” Standing in the rain without his umbrella. 🫣
It just all feels a bit surreal.
But it’s important to get off to a good start with these things, especially with element of surprise? But it’s not been a sure fitted start from the Conservatives ☹️
'What do you think of Rishi Sunak?'
'Who? ... he hasn't been prime minister long enough for me to remember his name!'
@AnushkaAsthana and @menendez_elisa hear from voters in Gillingham
The public consistently want lower immigrantion, and the amount they care about it is steadily increasing. There presently isn't a party that seriously intends to deliver lower immigration that other than Reform.
At some point, either the Tories will win having become credible on the issue, and then slam the gates shut, or they will be destroyed and replaced by another party which will reduce immigration.
I do think the Conservatives' A List proved dreadful.
New:
- Shadow cabinet will meet tomorrow to receive their marching orders
- Labour parliamentary staffers have been seconded to HQ
- Source: "We’re going to be really, really aggressive. [The Tories] have got a huge price to pay for what they’ve done, and we’ll make them pay.”
I feel a bit sorry for him because he obviously can't stand down before the election and after he will be leader of the opposition and presumably will resign and become a backbencher after a leadership contest. Unlike someone like Heath I can't imagine he will want to stay around for 5 years. Maybe he takes a job that forces him to resign.
The lesson from Brexit is not "if enough people want it, it should happen"
Meet Keir Starmer: Britain’s next prime minister?
https://www.politico.eu/article/keir-starmer-labour-party-prime-minister-british-elections/
..Starmer’s public style is famously methodical, often to the point of dry. He tries to evolve by micro-analyzing his own performance — his team used to watch video clips of him at Prime Minister’s Questions, his main weekly clash with Sunak, pausing the tape to point out what he had done well and where improvements could be made...
https://x.com/BrianSpanner1/status/1793607345916006402
I don't even know why the remark in Wales is meant to be a "gaffe". Welsh people aren't just interested in the Wales football team.
I thought that too. It is not a gaffe in any way, shape or form.
Are people really only invested in a sporting contest if they support one of the teams or players in it.
Just more engagement farming on social media.
My sense is that the public don't really know Rishi at all, other than that he's rich and a bit geeky. And gaffe prone. So I think far from closing the gap during the election campaign, it will get worse for the Conservatives. The more they see of him, the less people will like him. And most people have made their minds up already to punish the government for the last few years of pain - soaring gas bills, insane weekly shop price rises, etc.
The last few years have been nothing but pain for a lot of people, and that is what they will remember on polling day.
The bit I don't understand is why the Tories haven't worked this out yet.
If the Tories are sensible they shouldn't rush into anything (yeah I know it might also be a bloodbath afterwards), but I would guess they would want to line it all up for the conference season.
Were you up for Wes
A lot of hopeful faces; but none of the current Kent Labour MP's.....
Starmer tells me if Kent wants change, then he is the only option for them!
https://x.com/michaelkeohan/status/1793583173101830275
What sort of leader kicks of a GE campaign without his only MP in that county?
A coward, that sort, one who won’t stand up to the misogynists in his party.