OK - so I will say something and I’m not sure it’s going to be particularly popular here.
Labour and Labour supporters have really got to avoid being too triumphalist with this announcement. I’ve seen a lot of this on here since this afternoon. I want the Tories out, but I think it is dangerous to assume that this is a walk in the park. The more it looks inevitable, the more the risk grows. Let’s have a proper argument for a change of government.
Just realised this is my first election since giving up booze (at that point it’ll be six months and a week sober). I daresay there will be temptation, but I shall resist; schadenfreude my intoxicant as the counts come in.
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
Is there something we don’t know?
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
I'm fairly sure that last week's high court ruling in Belfast scuppered the Rwanda flights for the foreseeable future.
At the very least, it opened the way for fresh legal challenges before the first flight takes off - and I suspect they realised that there was now a good chance that there wouldn't have been any flights before the next election, no matter when it was called.
Boat Crossings currently running at record levels for time of year, and on the graph they always shoot up from July onwards. They needed flights in the air same time as surge to limit the political fallout.
Other things than courts could be an issue - like knowing where the ones best suited to get through court appeals actually are? It looked like RAF flights, could a problem have emerged with that? Issues at the Rwanda end, who have seemed to be going lukewarm on it for sometime? Rwanda needed to consider Starmer seeking end to the arrangement from Day 1, based on that Rwanda still keen on proceeding?
Not just small boats. Aiui the official migration figures are due out tomorrow, something else that might have escaped Rishi's planning.
I understand the ban on family of students has made a massive dent in the figures, so it is likely IN Sunak’s planning as helpful.
OK - so I will say something and I’m not sure it’s going to be particularly popular here.
Labour and Labour supporters have really got to avoid being too triumphalist with this announcement. I’ve seen a lot of this on here since this afternoon. I want the Tories out, but I think it is dangerous to assume that this is a walk in the park. The more it looks inevitable, the more the risk grows. Let’s have a proper argument for a change of government.
LIFELONG LABOUR VOTERS @Taz and @Mexicanpete are famously gushing about the prospect of a Labour victory.
I don't blame them. At the end of the day, he's too much of a turd even to grant his MPs a few more months in paid employment before the wipeout that his awful premiership has guaranteed.
I can't think of a single redeeming feature as a politician. Truss tried to turn things around. Sunk preferred to preside over the sinking ship with a sub-Cameron level sneering superiority.
I suspect the change of date is under US pressure so it doesn't conflict with their sorry Presidential election.
Could have gone later if they wanted to avoid that, so I doubt it was the main reason, though it was probably factored in.
The fact it was literally the earliest an election could be whilst still the second half of the year as he promised suggests to me it was probably that they see no way to turn things around and no likely game changing events either.
So MPs can be mad, but it might save one or two of them.
It won't.
So you think Sunak would have turned things around and improved the situation between now and, say, October?
I think there would have been another budget, possibly a couple of interest rate drops, possibly some slightly better news on immigration, and possibly some good news on Rwanda. That doesn't amount to an election victory but it does amount to a better situation than going now, and the merit of governing for longer.
The 'wet' wing always does this. They demand loyalty when one of their own leads, but they're the biggest weasels going. Sunak has delivered the election to Labour with a big bow, after his entire sell was about saving the Tory MPs from defeat. The silly chumps believed him, and then were too cowardly to get rid when the writing was clearly on the wall.
OK - so I will say something and I’m not sure it’s going to be particularly popular here.
Labour and Labour supporters have really got to avoid being too triumphalist with this announcement. I’ve seen a lot of this on here since this afternoon. I want the Tories out, but I think it is dangerous to assume that this is a walk in the park. The more it looks inevitable, the more the risk grows. Let’s have a proper argument for a change of government.
Everything we know about Starmer is that he will play it cautiously. Labour must focus on key marginals for a modest majority only.
Lots of Bills in progress - you would have thought they would need more than two days to get as many through as possible unless you can literally do each reading in a matter of minutes and vote not to bother with a committee stage?
Sunak went from being the safe pair of hands to the change candidate, and back again, when it suited.
I suspect dropping certain bills (e.g. Tobacco madness) won't be too hard when push comes to shove.....
OK - so I will say something and I’m not sure it’s going to be particularly popular here.
Labour and Labour supporters have really got to avoid being too triumphalist with this announcement. I’ve seen a lot of this on here since this afternoon. I want the Tories out, but I think it is dangerous to assume that this is a walk in the park. The more it looks inevitable, the more the risk grows. Let’s have a proper argument for a change of government.
Good post. Worth noting that on the day the 1997 election was called two polls conducted that day gave Labour leads of 28% and 31%.
@JamesKanag Modelling here at @focaldataHQ suggests more modest Labour lead of 5-7% is enough for a majority. Now apparently called the “Election cat” @Psythor
OK - so I will say something and I’m not sure it’s going to be particularly popular here.
Labour and Labour supporters have really got to avoid being too triumphalist with this announcement. I’ve seen a lot of this on here since this afternoon. I want the Tories out, but I think it is dangerous to assume that this is a walk in the park. The more it looks inevitable, the more the risk grows. Let’s have a proper argument for a change of government.
Aren't you confusing random PBers with Starmer and his team? Starmer gives every indication that he is taking absolutely nothing for granted - no sign of complacency at all. He's desperate not to drop the Ming vase. If anything, he's likely to be over-cautious rather than triumphalist.
Evening with the local Lib Dems. Already in campaign mode, leaflets at the ready. What was interesting was the extremely realistic strategy that’s being sent down from the top:
- Hyper targeting: don’t spread too thin, only focus on those seats where there’s a decent chance of actually winning. No wild goose chases after senior Tory decapitations. - Lowish ambitions and realism: one question asked was what’s our realistic target. Someone from the campaign HQ answered 20, possibly 25 seats if we’re lucky.
That’s why you’re not seeing much of the party at national level. It’s gone very very local. Whether that works…not sure. We’ll see. Could leave a few competitive seats on the table and save some blue wall Tories.
OK - so I will say something and I’m not sure it’s going to be particularly popular here.
Labour and Labour supporters have really got to avoid being too triumphalist with this announcement. I’ve seen a lot of this on here since this afternoon. I want the Tories out, but I think it is dangerous to assume that this is a walk in the park. The more it looks inevitable, the more the risk grows. Let’s have a proper argument for a change of government.
Everything we know about Starmer is that he will play it cautiously. Labour must focus on key marginals for a modest majority only.
He will be very cautious and unadventurous, and will talking up as a close race in order to GTV.
He is wooden and verbose but not one for gaffes.
Sunak is a loose cannon, as we have seen today. His meet the people events will boost popcorn sales tremendously.
OK - so I will say something and I’m not sure it’s going to be particularly popular here.
Labour and Labour supporters have really got to avoid being too triumphalist with this announcement. I’ve seen a lot of this on here since this afternoon. I want the Tories out, but I think it is dangerous to assume that this is a walk in the park. The more it looks inevitable, the more the risk grows. Let’s have a proper argument for a change of government.
Good post. Worth noting that on the day the 1997 election was called two polls conducted that day gave Labour leads of 28% and 31%.
Evening with the local Lib Dems. Already in campaign mode, leaflets at the ready. What was interesting was the extremely realistic strategy that’s being sent down from the top:
- Hyper targeting: don’t spread too thin, only focus on those seats where there’s a decent chance of actually winning. No wild goose chases after senior Tory decapitations. - Lowish ambitions and realism: one question asked was what’s our realistic target. Someone from the campaign HQ answered 29, possibly 25 seats if we’re lucky.
That’s why you’re not seeing much of the party at national level. It’s gone very very local. Whether that works…not sure. We’ll see. Could leave a few competitive seats on the table and save some blue wall Tories.
Yes, that is very much the LD strategy, and I agree that 25-30 seats should be the expectation.
@JamesKanag Modelling here at @focaldataHQ suggests more modest Labour lead of 5-7% is enough for a majority. Now apparently called the “Election cat” @Psythor
Astonishing how many are assuming UNS on a UK wide basis based on 2019.
@JamesKanag Modelling here at @focaldataHQ suggests more modest Labour lead of 5-7% is enough for a majority. Now apparently called the “Election cat” @Psythor
Worth noting that a tie on bias between the Tories and Labour is in actual fact a marginal bias towards Labour as far as next PM is concerned, since Labour can count on (somewhat) SNP, PC etc votes more than the Tories can.
OK - so I will say something and I’m not sure it’s going to be particularly popular here.
Labour and Labour supporters have really got to avoid being too triumphalist with this announcement. I’ve seen a lot of this on here since this afternoon. I want the Tories out, but I think it is dangerous to assume that this is a walk in the park. The more it looks inevitable, the more the risk grows. Let’s have a proper argument for a change of government.
Good post. Worth noting that on the day the 1997 election was called two polls conducted that day gave Labour leads of 28% and 31%.
Who are these PBers that are being triumphalist?
There’s one, I think. @Heathener possibly the horse, at times.
A few Lib Dems who are relishing the Tory apocalypse, but not really focused on Labour performance. A few Scotnats likewise. But neither group could be called Labour triumphalists.
Most people in Labour I know are shitting themselves. They really believe the party has some sort of hex over it that means it will always lose elections against the odds.
Evening with the local Lib Dems. Already in campaign mode, leaflets at the ready. What was interesting was the extremely realistic strategy that’s being sent down from the top:
- Hyper targeting: don’t spread too thin, only focus on those seats where there’s a decent chance of actually winning. No wild goose chases after senior Tory decapitations. - Lowish ambitions and realism: one question asked was what’s our realistic target. Someone from the campaign HQ answered 29, possibly 25 seats if we’re lucky.
That’s why you’re not seeing much of the party at national level. It’s gone very very local. Whether that works…not sure. We’ll see. Could leave a few competitive seats on the table and save some blue wall Tories.
Yes, that is very much the LD strategy, and I agree that 25-30 seats should be the expectation.
I don't blame them. At the end of the day, he's too much of a turd even to grant his MPs a few more months in paid employment before the wipeout that his awful premiership has guaranteed.
I can't think of a single redeeming feature as a politician. Truss tried to turn things around. Sunk preferred to preside over the sinking ship with a sub-Cameron level sneering superiority.
I suspect the change of date is under US pressure so it doesn't conflict with their sorry Presidential election.
Could have gone later if they wanted to avoid that, so I doubt it was the main reason, though it was probably factored in.
The fact it was literally the earliest an election could be whilst still the second half of the year as he promised suggests to me it was probably that they see no way to turn things around and no likely game changing events either.
So MPs can be mad, but it might save one or two of them.
It won't.
So you think Sunak would have turned things around and improved the situation between now and, say, October?
I think there would have been another budget, possibly a couple of interest rate drops, possibly some slightly better news on immigration, and possibly some good news on Rwanda. That doesn't amount to an election victory but it does amount to a better situation than going now, and the merit of governing for longer.
The 'wet' wing always does this. They demand loyalty when one of their own leads, but they're the biggest weasels going. Sunak has delivered the election to Labour with a big bow, after his entire sell was about saving the Tory MPs from defeat. The silly chumps believed him, and then were too cowardly to get rid when the writing was clearly on the wall.
I think it’s another “fiscal event” 4th July is running away from. By my calculations this was the very last moment Sunak could call it, otherwise election was October or later, and there would have to be both budget and conference. The Conservatives unexpected polling slump going into last year of parliament seemed to start during the last conference season. What tipped the balance I am sure is the realisation in the last week or so, that a pre election rabbit from the hat fiscal event, that would be expected with Oct Nov Dec election, has become absolutely impossible. The expectations for the autumn budget could never have been matched, and an awful way to launch a campaign. Not least, the rise in Defence Spending, so central to this June campaign with Rishi constantly taunting Starmer for not promising to match it, would never have got through an OBR this autumn alongside any tax cuts.
I reckon Labour will start running away from an Autumn budget too, and will wait till March/April for their first one.
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
Is there something we don’t know?
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
I'm fairly sure that last week's high court ruling in Belfast scuppered the Rwanda flights for the foreseeable future.
At the very least, it opened the way for fresh legal challenges before the first flight takes off - and I suspect they realised that there was now a good chance that there wouldn't have been any flights before the next election, no matter when it was called.
With the law's delays and certainty of appeal and the process not beyond very preliminary stages it's a racing certainty flights won't happen. There just isn't time.
Part of Sunak's cunning plan is that the date he has set allows him leeway, when addressing the gullible, to say 'Vote Tory to see the Rwanda thingy through, don't let Labour/leftie lawyers spoil it.'
And it is, while worthless rubbish, a piece of clear blue water in an election where there isn't much.
BTW my view that NoM is possible rests in part on Reform either being marginalised down to nothing much, or in fact doing a deal with the Tories as in 2019. This will get trashed if Farage announces he is taking over the reins of Reform.
Reform UK have announced a deal for the general election!
With the SDP.
The are going to be the SDP Reform Alliance, or maybe simply The Alliance.
Evening with the local Lib Dems. Already in campaign mode, leaflets at the ready. What was interesting was the extremely realistic strategy that’s being sent down from the top:
- Hyper targeting: don’t spread too thin, only focus on those seats where there’s a decent chance of actually winning. No wild goose chases after senior Tory decapitations. - Lowish ambitions and realism: one question asked was what’s our realistic target. Someone from the campaign HQ answered 20, possibly 25 seats if we’re lucky.
That’s why you’re not seeing much of the party at national level. It’s gone very very local. Whether that works…not sure. We’ll see. Could leave a few competitive seats on the table and save some blue wall Tories.
A far cry from the Swinson strategy of becoming PM...
I now live in Ed Davey's seat so I'll actually be voting for the winning party at a general election for the first time ever!
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
Is there something we don’t know?
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
I'm fairly sure that last week's high court ruling in Belfast scuppered the Rwanda flights for the foreseeable future.
At the very least, it opened the way for fresh legal challenges before the first flight takes off - and I suspect they realised that there was now a good chance that there wouldn't have been any flights before the next election, no matter when it was called.
With the law's delays and certainty of appeal and the process not beyond very preliminary stages it's a racing certainty flights won't happen. There just isn't time.
Part of Sunak's cunning plan is that the date he has set allows him leeway, when addressing the gullible, to say 'Vote Tory to see the Rwanda thingy through, don't let Labour/leftie lawyers spoil it.'
And it is, while worthless rubbish, a piece of clear blue water in an election where there isn't much.
BTW my view that NoM is possible rests in part on Reform either being marginalised down to nothing much, or in fact doing a deal with the Tories as in 2019. This will get trashed if Farage announces he is taking over the reins of Reform.
Reform UK have announced a deal for the general election!
With the SDP.
The "Continuing SDP" surely.
With a total of 3295 votes in 2019 (across all constituencies) they may well do worse than Binface.
Theyve announced just shy of 100 candidates this time
Evening with the local Lib Dems. Already in campaign mode, leaflets at the ready. What was interesting was the extremely realistic strategy that’s being sent down from the top:
- Hyper targeting: don’t spread too thin, only focus on those seats where there’s a decent chance of actually winning. No wild goose chases after senior Tory decapitations. - Lowish ambitions and realism: one question asked was what’s our realistic target. Someone from the campaign HQ answered 29, possibly 25 seats if we’re lucky.
That’s why you’re not seeing much of the party at national level. It’s gone very very local. Whether that works…not sure. We’ll see. Could leave a few competitive seats on the table and save some blue wall Tories.
Yes, that is very much the LD strategy, and I agree that 25-30 seats should be the expectation.
My feeling is 20 would be a win for the LDs.
They're historically not great at GEs.
I think 20 to 25 for LD. All these 'blue wall' possible gains such as in Surrey simply won't happen.
OK - so I will say something and I’m not sure it’s going to be particularly popular here.
Labour and Labour supporters have really got to avoid being too triumphalist with this announcement. I’ve seen a lot of this on here since this afternoon. I want the Tories out, but I think it is dangerous to assume that this is a walk in the park. The more it looks inevitable, the more the risk grows. Let’s have a proper argument for a change of government.
Good post. Worth noting that on the day the 1997 election was called two polls conducted that day gave Labour leads of 28% and 31%.
Who are these PBers that are being triumphalist?
There’s one, I think. @Heathener possibly the horse, at times.
A few Lib Dems who are relishing the Tory apocalypse, but not really focused on Labour performance. A few Scotnats likewise. But neither group could be called Labour triumphalists.
Most people in Labour I know are shitting themselves. They really believe the party has some sort of hex over it that means it will always lose elections against the odds.
Indeed. Lots of nerves from Labour people. The idea that Labour are complacent is for the birds. It was a bizarre OP from @numbertwelve quite frankly,
Evening with the local Lib Dems. Already in campaign mode, leaflets at the ready. What was interesting was the extremely realistic strategy that’s being sent down from the top:
- Hyper targeting: don’t spread too thin, only focus on those seats where there’s a decent chance of actually winning. No wild goose chases after senior Tory decapitations. - Lowish ambitions and realism: one question asked was what’s our realistic target. Someone from the campaign HQ answered 29, possibly 25 seats if we’re lucky.
That’s why you’re not seeing much of the party at national level. It’s gone very very local. Whether that works…not sure. We’ll see. Could leave a few competitive seats on the table and save some blue wall Tories.
Yes, that is very much the LD strategy, and I agree that 25-30 seats should be the expectation.
My feeling is 20 would be a win for the LDs.
They're historically not great at GEs.
Though the hope I hold out is that this is just maths.
Lib Dem seats are pretty much inversely proportional to Tory vote share. Much more so than they are positively proportional to Lib Dem vote share.
1983: huge alliance vote share, but Tory landslide and poor seat count. 1987 and 1992 high Tory vote share and mediocre alliance/Libdem result. 1997 LD vote share goes down but massive increase in seats because Tories collapse. 2001 and 2005 high seat count as Tories remain in doldrums. 2010 Lib Dem votes go up, seats actually go down. 2015 decimation that yes coincides with collapse in LD share but also surprisingly good Con performance. 2017 share goes down but so do Tories, and Lib Dems gain seats. 2019 LDs go up in share but Tories score landslide and LD seats go down.
History would suggest that if the blues are getting a shellacking that’ll hand the yellows a number of seats even if they stand still.
Evening with the local Lib Dems. Already in campaign mode, leaflets at the ready. What was interesting was the extremely realistic strategy that’s being sent down from the top:
- Hyper targeting: don’t spread too thin, only focus on those seats where there’s a decent chance of actually winning. No wild goose chases after senior Tory decapitations. - Lowish ambitions and realism: one question asked was what’s our realistic target. Someone from the campaign HQ answered 29, possibly 25 seats if we’re lucky.
That’s why you’re not seeing much of the party at national level. It’s gone very very local. Whether that works…not sure. We’ll see. Could leave a few competitive seats on the table and save some blue wall Tories.
Yes, that is very much the LD strategy, and I agree that 25-30 seats should be the expectation.
My feeling is 20 would be a win for the LDs.
They're historically not great at GEs.
I think they will be overtaken by Labour in a lot of Blue Wall seats, but on the other hand the Libs/LDs do best when Labour also do well, such as 1997, 2001 and 2005.
OK - so I will say something and I’m not sure it’s going to be particularly popular here.
Labour and Labour supporters have really got to avoid being too triumphalist with this announcement. I’ve seen a lot of this on here since this afternoon. I want the Tories out, but I think it is dangerous to assume that this is a walk in the park. The more it looks inevitable, the more the risk grows. Let’s have a proper argument for a change of government.
Everything we know about Starmer is that he will play it cautiously. Labour must focus on key marginals for a modest majority only.
He will be very cautious and unadventurous, and will talking up as a close race in order to GTV.
He is wooden and verbose but not one for gaffes.
Sunak is a loose cannon, as we have seen today. His meet the people events will boost popcorn sales tremendously.
I don't think Sunak will be allowed to meet the people in any real sense by his campaign team. He just isn't good at that at all.
I don't blame them. At the end of the day, he's too much of a turd even to grant his MPs a few more months in paid employment before the wipeout that his awful premiership has guaranteed.
I can't think of a single redeeming feature as a politician. Truss tried to turn things around. Sunk preferred to preside over the sinking ship with a sub-Cameron level sneering superiority.
I suspect the change of date is under US pressure so it doesn't conflict with their sorry Presidential election.
Could have gone later if they wanted to avoid that, so I doubt it was the main reason, though it was probably factored in.
The fact it was literally the earliest an election could be whilst still the second half of the year as he promised suggests to me it was probably that they see no way to turn things around and no likely game changing events either.
So MPs can be mad, but it might save one or two of them.
It won't.
So you think Sunak would have turned things around and improved the situation between now and, say, October?
I think there would have been another budget, possibly a couple of interest rate drops, possibly some slightly better news on immigration, and possibly some good news on Rwanda. That doesn't amount to an election victory but it does amount to a better situation than going now, and the merit of governing for longer.
The 'wet' wing always does this. They demand loyalty when one of their own leads, but they're the biggest weasels going. Sunak has delivered the election to Labour with a big bow, after his entire sell was about saving the Tory MPs from defeat. The silly chumps believed him, and then were too cowardly to get rid when the writing was clearly on the wall.
I think it’s another “fiscal event” 4th July is running away from. By my calculations this was the very last moment Sunak could call it, otherwise election was October or later, and there would have to be both budget and conference. The Conservatives unexpected polling slump going into last year of parliament seemed to start during the last conference season. What tipped the balance I am sure is the realisation in the last week or so, that a pre election rabbit from the hat fiscal event, that would be expected with Oct Nov Dec election, has become absolutely impossible. The expectations for the autumn budget could never have been matched, and an awful way to launch a campaign. Not least, the rise in Defence Spending, so central to this June campaign with Rishi constantly taunting Starmer for not promising to match it, would never have got through an OBR this autumn alongside any tax cuts.
I reckon Labour will start running away from an Autumn budget too, and will wait till March/April for their first one.
If Labour has any sense, prepare for a brutal Autumn Budget. Much worse than necessary. All blame thrust on the hated, defeated, chaotically squabbling Tory rump. It's standard procedure. Daft not to.
OK - so I will say something and I’m not sure it’s going to be particularly popular here.
Labour and Labour supporters have really got to avoid being too triumphalist with this announcement. I’ve seen a lot of this on here since this afternoon. I want the Tories out, but I think it is dangerous to assume that this is a walk in the park. The more it looks inevitable, the more the risk grows. Let’s have a proper argument for a change of government.
Everything we know about Starmer is that he will play it cautiously. Labour must focus on key marginals for a modest majority only.
He will be very cautious and unadventurous, and will talking up as a close race in order to GTV.
He is wooden and verbose but not one for gaffes.
Sunak is a loose cannon, as we have seen today. His meet the people events will boost popcorn sales tremendously.
I don't think Sunak will be allowed to meet the people in any real sense by his campaign team. He just isn't good at that at all.
Party minders usually try that, but sooner or later it happens. Blair outside the hospital, Brown with "that bigoted woman" etc.
In the modern era with camera phones everywhere these moments are far more likely.
Evening with the local Lib Dems. Already in campaign mode, leaflets at the ready. What was interesting was the extremely realistic strategy that’s being sent down from the top:
- Hyper targeting: don’t spread too thin, only focus on those seats where there’s a decent chance of actually winning. No wild goose chases after senior Tory decapitations. - Lowish ambitions and realism: one question asked was what’s our realistic target. Someone from the campaign HQ answered 20, possibly 25 seats if we’re lucky.
That’s why you’re not seeing much of the party at national level. It’s gone very very local. Whether that works…not sure. We’ll see. Could leave a few competitive seats on the table and save some blue wall Tories.
A far cry from the Swinson strategy of becoming PM...
I now live in Ed Davey's seat so I'll actually be voting for the winning party at a general election for the first time ever!
OK - so I will say something and I’m not sure it’s going to be particularly popular here.
Labour and Labour supporters have really got to avoid being too triumphalist with this announcement. I’ve seen a lot of this on here since this afternoon. I want the Tories out, but I think it is dangerous to assume that this is a walk in the park. The more it looks inevitable, the more the risk grows. Let’s have a proper argument for a change of government.
Everything we know about Starmer is that he will play it cautiously. Labour must focus on key marginals for a modest majority only.
He will be very cautious and unadventurous, and will talking up as a close race in order to GTV.
He is wooden and verbose but not one for gaffes.
Sunak is a loose cannon, as we have seen today. His meet the people events will boost popcorn sales tremendously.
I don't think Sunak will be allowed to meet the people in any real sense by his campaign team. He just isn't good at that at all.
Party minders usually try that, but sooner or later it happens. Blair outside the hospital, Brown with "that bigoted woman" etc.
In the modern era with camera phones everywhere these moments are far more likely.
Blair was genuinely good at meeting people, and Brown was better than he was characterised as being (his "bigoted woman" thing wasn't actually the meeting - he handled that fine, but was screwed by the hot mic later).
Sunak isn't good at it at all, and it will be town halls with heavily vetted, invited audiences.
Additionally, with Sunak, it's not that he's bad with angry people per se. His problem is that he is very out of touch and low on empathy. So he'll get someone in despair on low income, and say they should try going to the spa and get a job in finance.
The only ray of hope for the SNP is that after Scotland exits the Euros on 23 June, Labour’s message changes to “Now we can all unite behind England the remaining British team”. Unfortunately, they’re not that stupid.
I don't blame them. At the end of the day, he's too much of a turd even to grant his MPs a few more months in paid employment before the wipeout that his awful premiership has guaranteed.
I can't think of a single redeeming feature as a politician. Truss tried to turn things around. Sunk preferred to preside over the sinking ship with a sub-Cameron level sneering superiority.
I suspect the change of date is under US pressure so it doesn't conflict with their sorry Presidential election.
Could have gone later if they wanted to avoid that, so I doubt it was the main reason, though it was probably factored in.
The fact it was literally the earliest an election could be whilst still the second half of the year as he promised suggests to me it was probably that they see no way to turn things around and no likely game changing events either.
So MPs can be mad, but it might save one or two of them.
It won't.
So you think Sunak would have turned things around and improved the situation between now and, say, October?
I think there would have been another budget, possibly a couple of interest rate drops, possibly some slightly better news on immigration, and possibly some good news on Rwanda. That doesn't amount to an election victory but it does amount to a better situation than going now, and the merit of governing for longer.
The 'wet' wing always does this. They demand loyalty when one of their own leads, but they're the biggest weasels going. Sunak has delivered the election to Labour with a big bow, after his entire sell was about saving the Tory MPs from defeat. The silly chumps believed him, and then were too cowardly to get rid when the writing was clearly on the wall.
I think it’s another “fiscal event” 4th July is running away from. By my calculations this was the very last moment Sunak could call it, otherwise election was October or later, and there would have to be both budget and conference. The Conservatives unexpected polling slump going into last year of parliament seemed to start during the last conference season. What tipped the balance I am sure is the realisation in the last week or so, that a pre election rabbit from the hat fiscal event, that would be expected with Oct Nov Dec election, has become absolutely impossible. The expectations for the autumn budget could never have been matched, and an awful way to launch a campaign. Not least, the rise in Defence Spending, so central to this June campaign with Rishi constantly taunting Starmer for not promising to match it, would never have got through an OBR this autumn alongside any tax cuts.
I reckon Labour will start running away from an Autumn budget too, and will wait till March/April for their first one.
If Labour has any sense, prepare for a brutal Autumn Budget. Much worse than necessary. All blame thrust on the hated, defeated, chaotically squabbling Tory rump. It's standard procedure. Daft not to.
Yeah agree. They won’t have long to keep saying ‘you won’t believe the mess these clowns left’ so they’re best off getting the painful stuff done early while it can still merge into the general miasma of Tory failure.
'Rejoin' would seem a good strategy for the Lib Dems. It would be a USP and popular in nearly all the seats they're interested in. Mass public support and it would be a banner to march behind. All the free education and a penny off income tax is too old hat
Evening with the local Lib Dems. Already in campaign mode, leaflets at the ready. What was interesting was the extremely realistic strategy that’s being sent down from the top:
- Hyper targeting: don’t spread too thin, only focus on those seats where there’s a decent chance of actually winning. No wild goose chases after senior Tory decapitations. - Lowish ambitions and realism: one question asked was what’s our realistic target. Someone from the campaign HQ answered 29, possibly 25 seats if we’re lucky.
That’s why you’re not seeing much of the party at national level. It’s gone very very local. Whether that works…not sure. We’ll see. Could leave a few competitive seats on the table and save some blue wall Tories.
Yes, that is very much the LD strategy, and I agree that 25-30 seats should be the expectation.
My feeling is 20 would be a win for the LDs.
They're historically not great at GEs.
I think they will be overtaken by Labour in a lot of Blue Wall seats, but on the other hand the Libs/LDs do best when Labour also do well, such as 1997, 2001 and 2005.
Careful seat targeting is the right strategy.
Although I think the impact of things like ground game are overstated I don't think it is entirely without merit, and I wonder if the LDs might have an outsized impact this time around, as in recent electoral cycles they may have poured activists into seats like Bath from the surrounding constituencies, which perhaps this time they will allow to focus more on their own areas.
It'd still mean precise targeting of resources, but perhaps just meaning they can focus on more than before as they can feel relatively safe for the first time on a few.
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
Is there something we don’t know?
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
I'm fairly sure that last week's high court ruling in Belfast scuppered the Rwanda flights for the foreseeable future.
At the very least, it opened the way for fresh legal challenges before the first flight takes off - and I suspect they realised that there was now a good chance that there wouldn't have been any flights before the next election, no matter when it was called.
With the law's delays and certainty of appeal and the process not beyond very preliminary stages it's a racing certainty flights won't happen. There just isn't time.
Part of Sunak's cunning plan is that the date he has set allows him leeway, when addressing the gullible, to say 'Vote Tory to see the Rwanda thingy through, don't let Labour/leftie lawyers spoil it.'
And it is, while worthless rubbish, a piece of clear blue water in an election where there isn't much.
BTW my view that NoM is possible rests in part on Reform either being marginalised down to nothing much, or in fact doing a deal with the Tories as in 2019. This will get trashed if Farage announces he is taking over the reins of Reform.
Reform UK have announced a deal for the general election!
With the SDP.
The are going to be the SDP Reform Alliance, or maybe simply The Alliance.
Reform UK also has a pact with the TUV. So it’s Reform UK - Social Democratic Party - Traditional Unionist Voice. Maybe you could re-arrange that to Traditional Reform UK Social Party. Or TRUS Party…
OK - so I will say something and I’m not sure it’s going to be particularly popular here.
Labour and Labour supporters have really got to avoid being too triumphalist with this announcement. I’ve seen a lot of this on here since this afternoon. I want the Tories out, but I think it is dangerous to assume that this is a walk in the park. The more it looks inevitable, the more the risk grows. Let’s have a proper argument for a change of government.
Good post. Worth noting that on the day the 1997 election was called two polls conducted that day gave Labour leads of 28% and 31%.
Who are these PBers that are being triumphalist?
There’s one, I think. @Heathener possibly the horse, at times.
A few Lib Dems who are relishing the Tory apocalypse, but not really focused on Labour performance. A few Scotnats likewise. But neither group could be called Labour triumphalists.
Most people in Labour I know are shitting themselves. They really believe the party has some sort of hex over it that means it will always lose elections against the odds.
Eh? Not me, I think a Hung Parliament is still very likely.
I'm not sure I would favour the SDLP to hold Foyle over SF, in an election where a Brexit choice is off the table. In Belfast South, they have incumbency on their side, even though Alliance won most votes at Assembly level in 2022, so I think they will hold, but anyone could take it if SF field a candidate this time. I don't see what has changed in Belfast East where there are still a few thousand unionist votes for the DUP to squeeze. So I will struggle to put Alliance + SDLP at 4 as in the prediction below. One each is possible but I'd guess 3 in total.
Belfast South is always tricky to predict - I'm a bit out of the loop, but I'd expect Claire Hanna to be fairly attractive to the sort of voter who might otherwise think of voting Alliance.
Has Naomi Long decided yet if she'll be standing again in Belfast East? If not, I'd have thought that Big Gav would be a dead cert, given his decisive(/ruthless) handling of the Jeffrey Donaldson situation.
I've no real local expertise, mainly a lot of reading. The main factor this time is the modest changes to the boundaries - the underlying political situation remaining much more stable. In fact Hanna's seat is now called Belfast South and Mid Down and has added a few commuter towns with a unionist lean, but not enough to overturn the dominant uni/PS/NGO type vote. (The DUP only won 30% of the vote when they took the seat, and that was after squeezing the other unionists.)
I don't blame them. At the end of the day, he's too much of a turd even to grant his MPs a few more months in paid employment before the wipeout that his awful premiership has guaranteed.
I can't think of a single redeeming feature as a politician. Truss tried to turn things around. Sunk preferred to preside over the sinking ship with a sub-Cameron level sneering superiority.
I suspect the change of date is under US pressure so it doesn't conflict with their sorry Presidential election.
Could have gone later if they wanted to avoid that, so I doubt it was the main reason, though it was probably factored in.
The fact it was literally the earliest an election could be whilst still the second half of the year as he promised suggests to me it was probably that they see no way to turn things around and no likely game changing events either.
So MPs can be mad, but it might save one or two of them.
It won't.
So you think Sunak would have turned things around and improved the situation between now and, say, October?
I think there would have been another budget, possibly a couple of interest rate drops, possibly some slightly better news on immigration, and possibly some good news on Rwanda. That doesn't amount to an election victory but it does amount to a better situation than going now, and the merit of governing for longer.
The 'wet' wing always does this. They demand loyalty when one of their own leads, but they're the biggest weasels going. Sunak has delivered the election to Labour with a big bow, after his entire sell was about saving the Tory MPs from defeat. The silly chumps believed him, and then were too cowardly to get rid when the writing was clearly on the wall.
I think it’s another “fiscal event” 4th July is running away from. By my calculations this was the very last moment Sunak could call it, otherwise election was October or later, and there would have to be both budget and conference. The Conservatives unexpected polling slump going into last year of parliament seemed to start during the last conference season. What tipped the balance I am sure is the realisation in the last week or so, that a pre election rabbit from the hat fiscal event, that would be expected with Oct Nov Dec election, has become absolutely impossible. The expectations for the autumn budget could never have been matched, and an awful way to launch a campaign. Not least, the rise in Defence Spending, so central to this June campaign with Rishi constantly taunting Starmer for not promising to match it, would never have got through an OBR this autumn alongside any tax cuts.
I reckon Labour will start running away from an Autumn budget too, and will wait till March/April for their first one.
If Labour has any sense, prepare for a brutal Autumn Budget. Much worse than necessary. All blame thrust on the hated, defeated, chaotically squabbling Tory rump. It's standard procedure. Daft not to.
Your post is good at a skim, but what detail you adding to Brutal Budget?
I’m convinced Sunak called election today to avoid a budget where expectations would be up there, but wriggle room is now non existent. True, for victorious Labour it’s not a campaign launch event, but they couldn’t spend, unless they raised - how many campaign promises broken in spirit if not fact with a brutal Autumn budget? And managing the same problems the Tory’s would have had, expectations of rabbits, where there’s not even rabbit droppings in this Autumns hat.
If Labour don’t mention Autumn budget, it means they are running away from it. If directly challenged and they reply, we don’t know yet as we will need to take stock, they will be clearly avoiding autumn budget, same as the Tories have with todays announcement.
OK - so I will say something and I’m not sure it’s going to be particularly popular here.
Labour and Labour supporters have really got to avoid being too triumphalist with this announcement. I’ve seen a lot of this on here since this afternoon. I want the Tories out, but I think it is dangerous to assume that this is a walk in the park. The more it looks inevitable, the more the risk grows. Let’s have a proper argument for a change of government.
Everything we know about Starmer is that he will play it cautiously. Labour must focus on key marginals for a modest majority only.
He will be very cautious and unadventurous, and will talking up as a close race in order to GTV.
He is wooden and verbose but not one for gaffes.
Sunak is a loose cannon, as we have seen today. His meet the people events will boost popcorn sales tremendously.
I don't think Sunak will be allowed to meet the people in any real sense by his campaign team. He just isn't good at that at all.
Party minders usually try that, but sooner or later it happens. Blair outside the hospital, Brown with "that bigoted woman" etc.
In the modern era with camera phones everywhere these moments are far more likely.
Blair was genuinely good at meeting people, and Brown was better than he was characterised as being (his "bigoted woman" thing wasn't actually the meeting - he handled that fine, but was screwed by the hot mic later).
Sunak isn't good at it at all, and it will be town halls with heavily vetted, invited audiences.
Brown, like Major but in a different way, I think came across better in person. He was a pretty poor media performer but was genuinely comfortable talking to most people in person. His early life gave him a broad range of social experiences, from courting European royalty to selling programmes at Raith Rovers.
OK - so I will say something and I’m not sure it’s going to be particularly popular here.
Labour and Labour supporters have really got to avoid being too triumphalist with this announcement. I’ve seen a lot of this on here since this afternoon. I want the Tories out, but I think it is dangerous to assume that this is a walk in the park. The more it looks inevitable, the more the risk grows. Let’s have a proper argument for a change of government.
Everything we know about Starmer is that he will play it cautiously. Labour must focus on key marginals for a modest majority only.
He will be very cautious and unadventurous, and will talking up as a close race in order to GTV.
He is wooden and verbose but not one for gaffes.
Sunak is a loose cannon, as we have seen today. His meet the people events will boost popcorn sales tremendously.
I don't think Sunak will be allowed to meet the people in any real sense by his campaign team. He just isn't good at that at all.
Party minders usually try that, but sooner or later it happens. Blair outside the hospital, Brown with "that bigoted woman" etc.
In the modern era with camera phones everywhere these moments are far more likely.
Blair was genuinely good at meeting people, and Brown was better than he was characterised as being (his "bigoted woman" thing wasn't actually the meeting - he handled that fine, but was screwed by the hot mic later).
Sunak isn't good at it at all, and it will be town halls with heavily vetted, invited audiences.
Brown, like Major but in a different way, I think came across better in person. He was a pretty poor media performer but was genuinely comfortable talking to most people in person. His early life gave him a broad range of social experiences, from courting European royalty to selling programmes at Raith Rovers.
Brown grew up the son of a preacher, he was very happy speaking publicly to a room of true believers, Blair was better at the more sceptical.
Brown is by all accounts very nice and friendly personally, as is SKS - who comes across much better in small groups.
Evening with the local Lib Dems. Already in campaign mode, leaflets at the ready. What was interesting was the extremely realistic strategy that’s being sent down from the top:
- Hyper targeting: don’t spread too thin, only focus on those seats where there’s a decent chance of actually winning. No wild goose chases after senior Tory decapitations. - Lowish ambitions and realism: one question asked was what’s our realistic target. Someone from the campaign HQ answered 29, possibly 25 seats if we’re lucky.
That’s why you’re not seeing much of the party at national level. It’s gone very very local. Whether that works…not sure. We’ll see. Could leave a few competitive seats on the table and save some blue wall Tories.
Yes, that is very much the LD strategy, and I agree that 25-30 seats should be the expectation.
My feeling is 20 would be a win for the LDs.
They're historically not great at GEs.
I think 20 to 25 for LD. All these 'blue wall' possible gains such as in Surrey simply won't happen.
Several of the Surrey seats are their very best hopes. Of course it might all go pearshaped if the Tories rally or Labour do so well that LD targeting fails but here is a list of possibles:
Guildford, LD should win Esher and Walton, LD should win Godalming and Ash, LDs should win (but Hunt being the candidate might scupper it) Dorking and Horley, LDs stand a good chance (and have an excellent candidate) Woking, LDs stand a good chance Farnham and Bordon, LDs should stand a good chance, but I don't know how much it has been worked Surrey Heath, LDs should not win, but maybe a surprise. Ed Davey visited there today. LDs very strong here recently but Gove has a decent majority.
So if the LDs have a bad night they may gain none of these, but if they are making a number of gains all these ones are in play in Surrey.
The base will never forgive her (or people like Bill Barr or Pence who savagely criticised Trump but will still vote for him), so there's still no future career prospects to be gained from bending knee and it is hardly worth it.
Not that I'd expect more than a bare handful of people to outright say they will vote for Biden over Trump, but it'd have been nice if there were at least a few more who were willing to not endorse him.
Your post is good at a skim, but what detail you adding to Brutal Budget?
I’m convinced Sunak called election today to avoid a budget where expectations would be up there, but wriggle room is now non existent. True, for victorious Labour it’s not a campaign launch event, but they couldn’t spend, unless they raised - how many campaign promises broken in spirit if not fact with a brutal Autumn budget? And managing the same problems the Tory’s would have had, expectations of rabbits, where there’s not even rabbit droppings in this Autumns hat.
If Labour don’t mention Autumn budget, it means they are running away from it. If directly challenged and they reply, we don’t know yet as we will need to take stock, they will be clearly avoiding autumn budget, same as the Tories have with todays announcement.
I've often been accused of bullying you for some reason so I will just say this, I take my hat off to you for calling the election.
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley plans to vote for Donald Trump, she said Wednesday in her first public remarks since exiting the Republican presidential primary more than two months ago.
Haley said Trump “has not been perfect” on policies important to her, including foreign policy, immigration and the economy, but President Joe Biden “has been a catastrophe.”
“So I will be voting for Trump,” said Haley, who served as US ambassador to the United Nations under the former president.
I don't blame them. At the end of the day, he's too much of a turd even to grant his MPs a few more months in paid employment before the wipeout that his awful premiership has guaranteed.
I can't think of a single redeeming feature as a politician. Truss tried to turn things around. Sunk preferred to preside over the sinking ship with a sub-Cameron level sneering superiority.
I suspect the change of date is under US pressure so it doesn't conflict with their sorry Presidential election.
Could have gone later if they wanted to avoid that, so I doubt it was the main reason, though it was probably factored in.
The fact it was literally the earliest an election could be whilst still the second half of the year as he promised suggests to me it was probably that they see no way to turn things around and no likely game changing events either.
So MPs can be mad, but it might save one or two of them.
It won't.
So you think Sunak would have turned things around and improved the situation between now and, say, October?
I think there would have been another budget, possibly a couple of interest rate drops, possibly some slightly better news on immigration, and possibly some good news on Rwanda. That doesn't amount to an election victory but it does amount to a better situation than going now, and the merit of governing for longer.
The 'wet' wing always does this. They demand loyalty when one of their own leads, but they're the biggest weasels going. Sunak has delivered the election to Labour with a big bow, after his entire sell was about saving the Tory MPs from defeat. The silly chumps believed him, and then were too cowardly to get rid when the writing was clearly on the wall.
I think it’s another “fiscal event” 4th July is running away from. By my calculations this was the very last moment Sunak could call it, otherwise election was October or later, and there would have to be both budget and conference. The Conservatives unexpected polling slump going into last year of parliament seemed to start during the last conference season. What tipped the balance I am sure is the realisation in the last week or so, that a pre election rabbit from the hat fiscal event, that would be expected with Oct Nov Dec election, has become absolutely impossible. The expectations for the autumn budget could never have been matched, and an awful way to launch a campaign. Not least, the rise in Defence Spending, so central to this June campaign with Rishi constantly taunting Starmer for not promising to match it, would never have got through an OBR this autumn alongside any tax cuts.
I reckon Labour will start running away from an Autumn budget too, and will wait till March/April for their first one.
If Labour has any sense, prepare for a brutal Autumn Budget. Much worse than necessary. All blame thrust on the hated, defeated, chaotically squabbling Tory rump. It's standard procedure. Daft not to.
Your post is good at a skim, but what detail you adding to Brutal Budget?
I’m convinced Sunak called election today to avoid a budget where expectations would be up there, but wriggle room is now non existent. True, for victorious Labour it’s not a campaign launch event, but they couldn’t spend, unless they raised - how many campaign promises broken in spirit if not fact with a brutal Autumn budget? And managing the same problems the Tory’s would have had, expectations of rabbits, where there’s not even rabbit droppings in this Autumns hat.
If Labour don’t mention Autumn budget, it means they are running away from it. If directly challenged and they reply, we don’t know yet as we will need to take stock, they will be clearly avoiding autumn budget, same as the Tories have with todays announcement.
There'll be tax rises (what they are is beyond my pay grade) and sticking to the planned spending cuts. Forgive me if I don't see any promises to break? All of these will be focused on Tory failings.
Interesting that the reaction of Tory MPs tonight is fatalistic about the result but fury at Sunak. They thought they had 5/6 months to get a job, to plan their lives. They think Sunak doesn't care about them with his millions and his US home. "Selfish" a word I've heard a lot
Evening with the local Lib Dems. Already in campaign mode, leaflets at the ready. What was interesting was the extremely realistic strategy that’s being sent down from the top:
- Hyper targeting: don’t spread too thin, only focus on those seats where there’s a decent chance of actually winning. No wild goose chases after senior Tory decapitations. - Lowish ambitions and realism: one question asked was what’s our realistic target. Someone from the campaign HQ answered 29, possibly 25 seats if we’re lucky.
That’s why you’re not seeing much of the party at national level. It’s gone very very local. Whether that works…not sure. We’ll see. Could leave a few competitive seats on the table and save some blue wall Tories.
Yes, that is very much the LD strategy, and I agree that 25-30 seats should be the expectation.
My feeling is 20 would be a win for the LDs.
They're historically not great at GEs.
I think 20 to 25 for LD. All these 'blue wall' possible gains such as in Surrey simply won't happen.
Several of the Surrey seats are their very best hopes. Of course it might all go pearshaped if the Tories rally or Labour do so well that LD targeting fails but here is a list of possibles:
Guildford, LD should win Esher and Walton, LD should win Godalming and Ash, LDs should win (but Hunt being the candidate might scupper it) Dorking and Horley, LDs stand a good chance (and have an excellent candidate) Woking, LDs stand a good chance Farnham and Bordon, LDs should stand a good chance, but I don't know how much it has been worked Surrey Heath, LDs should not win, but maybe a surprise. Ed Davey visited there today. LDs very strong here recently but Gove has a decent majority.
So if the LDs have a bad night they may gain none of these, but if they are making a number of gains all these ones are in play in Surrey.
I was interested to see that the Economist’s model had them winning Cheadle but *not* Big Brain Billy Wragg’s neighbouring seat of Hazel Grove. I think they’ll take both.
LAB 380 CON 200 LD 25 SNP 25 NI 18 PC 2 GRN 0 REF 0
???
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 SNP21 PLD4
Because LLG is in high fifties, and so practised at voting anti Tory in recent years.
Well done to you too, Pubman, you suggested last week in June for a long time while everyone else on here insisted Autumn or winter. You were only a week out. They were miles out.
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley plans to vote for Donald Trump, she said Wednesday in her first public remarks since exiting the Republican presidential primary more than two months ago.
Haley said Trump “has not been perfect” on policies important to her, including foreign policy, immigration and the economy, but President Joe Biden “has been a catastrophe.”
“So I will be voting for Trump,” said Haley, who served as US ambassador to the United Nations under the former president.
I believe she talked a good game about not feeling the need to kiss the ring a few months ago, but even at the time that was clearly just bravado.
If Trump is convicted of a crime (which may be next week, though no certainty he will be convicted of course), I think many people will be surprised at how little it moves the dial. People like Haley aren't going to withdraw their endorsements, if it mattered to them at all they'd have held off until after the verdict.
Even with 'independents' I think it will have less impact than predicted, though I do think it will have at least some impact with them, though not with the GOP base.
I mean, most GOP officials are on record as thinking the last election was stolen and all the criminal trials (never mind this one which is more minor) are rigged and phony, and their preferred media tells that story as well, so why would more than a handful change their tune? I don't buy polls suggesting otherwise, it makes no logical sense based on their belief the trials are a hoax.
Evening with the local Lib Dems. Already in campaign mode, leaflets at the ready. What was interesting was the extremely realistic strategy that’s being sent down from the top:
- Hyper targeting: don’t spread too thin, only focus on those seats where there’s a decent chance of actually winning. No wild goose chases after senior Tory decapitations. - Lowish ambitions and realism: one question asked was what’s our realistic target. Someone from the campaign HQ answered 29, possibly 25 seats if we’re lucky.
That’s why you’re not seeing much of the party at national level. It’s gone very very local. Whether that works…not sure. We’ll see. Could leave a few competitive seats on the table and save some blue wall Tories.
Yes, that is very much the LD strategy, and I agree that 25-30 seats should be the expectation.
My feeling is 20 would be a win for the LDs.
They're historically not great at GEs.
I think 20 to 25 for LD. All these 'blue wall' possible gains such as in Surrey simply won't happen.
Several of the Surrey seats are their very best hopes. Of course it might all go pearshaped if the Tories rally or Labour do so well that LD targeting fails but here is a list of possibles:
Guildford, LD should win Esher and Walton, LD should win Godalming and Ash, LDs should win (but Hunt being the candidate might scupper it) Dorking and Horley, LDs stand a good chance (and have an excellent candidate) Woking, LDs stand a good chance Farnham and Bordon, LDs should stand a good chance, but I don't know how much it has been worked Surrey Heath, LDs should not win, but maybe a surprise. Ed Davey visited there today. LDs very strong here recently but Gove has a decent majority.
So if the LDs have a bad night they may gain none of these, but if they are making a number of gains all these ones are in play in Surrey.
I think you'll get Guildford. In some of these other seats there were big swings in 2019 from CON to LD because of Remain. So the number of potential switchers this time is limited as many already switched.
Of course you are local and will have more knowledge than me 👍
LAB 380 CON 200 LD 25 SNP 25 NI 18 PC 2 GRN 0 REF 0
???
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 SNP21 PLD4
Because LLG is in high fifties, and so practised at voting anti Tory in recent years.
Well done to you too, Pubman, you suggested last week in June for a long time while everyone else on here insisted Autumn or winter. You were only a week out. They were miles out.
LAB 380 CON 200 LD 25 SNP 25 NI 18 PC 2 GRN 0 REF 0
???
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 SNP21 PLD4
Because LLG is in high fifties, and so practised at voting anti Tory in recent years.
Well done to you too, Pubman, you suggested last week in June for a long time while everyone else on here insisted Autumn or winter. You were only a week out. They were miles out.
All plausible too but I really don't think LD will get 48!
LAB 380 CON 200 LD 25 SNP 25 NI 18 PC 2 GRN 0 REF 0
???
Con holding on to 200 seats would be an amazing achievement in the circumstances.
I don’t think it’s that far-fetched; seems to track with the polling, no?
Depends on the polling. But I think the problem is they are facing a bit of a perfect storm of problems, and their efficiency could drastically alter, turning 200 into 150 on very little voteshare difference if they are unlucky.
OK - so I will say something and I’m not sure it’s going to be particularly popular here.
Labour and Labour supporters have really got to avoid being too triumphalist with this announcement. I’ve seen a lot of this on here since this afternoon. I want the Tories out, but I think it is dangerous to assume that this is a walk in the park. The more it looks inevitable, the more the risk grows. Let’s have a proper argument for a change of government.
Everything we know about Starmer is that he will play it cautiously. Labour must focus on key marginals for a modest majority only.
He will be very cautious and unadventurous, and will talking up as a close race in order to GTV.
He is wooden and verbose but not one for gaffes.
Sunak is a loose cannon, as we have seen today. His meet the people events will boost popcorn sales tremendously.
I don't think Sunak will be allowed to meet the people in any real sense by his campaign team. He just isn't good at that at all.
Party minders usually try that, but sooner or later it happens. Blair outside the hospital, Brown with "that bigoted woman" etc.
In the modern era with camera phones everywhere these moments are far more likely.
Boris inside the hospital, denying he was at a photo-op.
LAB 380 CON 200 LD 25 SNP 25 NI 18 PC 2 GRN 0 REF 0
???
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 SNP21 PLD4
Because LLG is in high fifties, and so practised at voting anti Tory in recent years.
Well done to you too, Pubman, you suggested last week in June for a long time while everyone else on here insisted Autumn or winter. You were only a week out. They were miles out.
I'm genuinely surprised Sunak has gone for July.
As some have said, maybe it's a cynical decision and he knows his time is up and he's just ready to move onto other things. It's not like he needs the money.
The other alternative is he knows the the economy is getting worse (inflation higher than predicted, remortgages sucking more and more disposable income out of the economy) and the size of the defeat will be greater the later he goes.
But kudos to him for calling it now rather than clinging on til the bitter end, and kudos to those on PB who called it right.
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
Is there something we don’t know?
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
I think the something we don't know was a credible threat from within the party. Things have got so much more dire since the local elections that a putsch was starting to look no madder than sticking with him. The cabinet meeting was an exercise in "look what you made me do, hope you're happy".
So May 2nd would have been good idea then? 😃
Combining the general with local elections would probably have saved a few dozen Tory councillors and the odd mayor by dragging out stay-at-home Conservative voters, so there was a certain electoral logic to it, as there was for going long. It is hard to see the case for the 4th of July.
Evening with the local Lib Dems. Already in campaign mode, leaflets at the ready. What was interesting was the extremely realistic strategy that’s being sent down from the top:
- Hyper targeting: don’t spread too thin, only focus on those seats where there’s a decent chance of actually winning. No wild goose chases after senior Tory decapitations. - Lowish ambitions and realism: one question asked was what’s our realistic target. Someone from the campaign HQ answered 29, possibly 25 seats if we’re lucky.
That’s why you’re not seeing much of the party at national level. It’s gone very very local. Whether that works…not sure. We’ll see. Could leave a few competitive seats on the table and save some blue wall Tories.
Yes, that is very much the LD strategy, and I agree that 25-30 seats should be the expectation.
My feeling is 20 would be a win for the LDs.
They're historically not great at GEs.
I think 20 to 25 for LD. All these 'blue wall' possible gains such as in Surrey simply won't happen.
Several of the Surrey seats are their very best hopes. Of course it might all go pearshaped if the Tories rally or Labour do so well that LD targeting fails but here is a list of possibles:
Guildford, LD should win Esher and Walton, LD should win Godalming and Ash, LDs should win (but Hunt being the candidate might scupper it) Dorking and Horley, LDs stand a good chance (and have an excellent candidate) Woking, LDs stand a good chance Farnham and Bordon, LDs should stand a good chance, but I don't know how much it has been worked Surrey Heath, LDs should not win, but maybe a surprise. Ed Davey visited there today. LDs very strong here recently but Gove has a decent majority.
So if the LDs have a bad night they may gain none of these, but if they are making a number of gains all these ones are in play in Surrey.
I think you'll get Guildford. In some of these other seats there were big swings in 2019 from CON to LD because of Remain. So the number of potential switchers this time is limited as many already switched.
Of course you are local and will have more knowledge than me 👍
Re the Remain issue - I agree
The downside in any prediction from me is I am obviously biased.
The local election results in Woking, Mole Valley (Dorking) and Surrey Heath have also been dramatic. They have all had near or total Tory wipeouts. Now Locals aren't Generals so one shouldn't extrapolate and there have been some special reasons (eg the Tories bankrupted Woking), but Surrey Heath for instance used to be 100% Tory. Now they are an endangered species and the LDs are rampant, which is why I add Surrey Heath when it should be 100% Tory hold.
To be honest I am not predicting. It is far to early, especially with the LDs so low in the polls, but if the LDs are winning their targets across the country I would put all 7 of these in the frame. If the LDs aren't performing it could be none. The point is they are as good a shot as anywhere else they are targeting and it is a cluster of up to 7 in Surrey.
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
Is there something we don’t know?
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
I think the something we don't know was a credible threat from within the party. Things have got so much more dire since the local elections that a putsch was starting to look no madder than sticking with him. The cabinet meeting was an exercise in "look what you made me do, hope you're happy".
So May 2nd would have been good idea then? 😃
Combining the general with local elections would probably have saved a few dozen Tory councillors and the odd mayor by dragging out stay-at-home Conservative voters, so there was a certain electoral logic to it, as there was for going long. It is hard to see the case for the 4th of July.
Yes, I have to admit I thought July was pretty much off the table after not going for May. Going to the polls against so soon after a drubbling like that seemed absurd, and I assumed they simply would not be convinced things would not get any better and so best to go right away.
They must have been shown some horror scenarios to think now was the time to go.
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
Is there something we don’t know?
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
I think the something we don't know was a credible threat from within the party. Things have got so much more dire since the local elections that a putsch was starting to look no madder than sticking with him. The cabinet meeting was an exercise in "look what you made me do, hope you're happy".
So May 2nd would have been good idea then? 😃
Combining the general with local elections would probably have saved a few dozen Tory councillors and the odd mayor by dragging out stay-at-home Conservative voters, so there was a certain electoral logic to it, as there was for going long. It is hard to see the case for the 4th of July.
4th July Avoids The no money left budget as election launch pad The morgue of a conference Record boat crossings. Boats not stopped as promised. No planes taking off to Rwanda as promised. An interim covid report An election with food prices, energy bills and inflation heading upwards. Again. Defections. Party turbulence. More voters remortgaging as interest rate cuts on pause for what seems like forever. (Farage coming back some would add, I don’t buy this one as serious impact so it’s in brackets) Full prisons, police told to stop arresting people. WTF 🤷♀️
These are just the known knowns in favour of July 4th over autumn.
Sir Frederick: [...] there are four words to be included in a proposal if you want it thrown out. Sir Humphrey: Complicated. Lengthy. Expensive. Controversial. And if you want to be really sure that the Minister doesn't accept it, you must say the decision is "courageous". Bernard: And that's worse than "controversial"? Sir Humphrey: Oh, yes! "Controversial" only means "this will lose you votes". "Courageous" means "this will lose you the election"!
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
Is there something we don’t know?
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
I think the something we don't know was a credible threat from within the party. Things have got so much more dire since the local elections that a putsch was starting to look no madder than sticking with him. The cabinet meeting was an exercise in "look what you made me do, hope you're happy".
So May 2nd would have been good idea then? 😃
Combining the general with local elections would probably have saved a few dozen Tory councillors and the odd mayor by dragging out stay-at-home Conservative voters, so there was a certain electoral logic to it, as there was for going long. It is hard to see the case for the 4th of July.
Yes, I have to admit I thought July was pretty much off the table after not going for May. Going to the polls against so soon after a drubbling like that seemed absurd, and I assumed they simply would not be convinced things would not get any better and so best to go right away.
They must have been shown some horror scenarios to think now was the time to go.
Yep. As far as I was concerned the Autumn was favourite followed by 2nd May as second favourite. Shows what I know. Please treat my comments on how the LDs will do in Surrey accordingly.
LAB 380 CON 200 LD 25 SNP 25 NI 18 PC 2 GRN 0 REF 0
???
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 SNP21 PLD4
Because LLG is in high fifties, and so practised at voting anti Tory in recent years.
Well done to you too, Pubman, you suggested last week in June for a long time while everyone else on here insisted Autumn or winter. You were only a week out. They were miles out.
I'm genuinely surprised Sunak has gone for July.
As some have said, maybe it's a cynical decision and he knows his time is up and he's just ready to move onto other things. It's not like he needs the money.
The other alternative is he knows the the economy is getting worse (inflation higher than predicted, remortgages sucking more and more disposable income out of the economy) and the size of the defeat will be greater the later he goes.
But kudos to him for calling it now rather than clinging on til the bitter end, and kudos to those on PB who called it right.
“kudos to those on PB who called it right”
That’s the thing isn’t it.
The main point I was trying to make all year, was that election date not down to the whim of Sunak but decided by analytical electoral science. The science can crunch all the planned data release dates and and what they likely say, all the forecast modelling - boat crossings, energy cost drops/rises on inflation and household and business bills - it can find you a sweet spot, 5 weeks to campaign in when promising news comes in, hope is in the air. And that sweet spot, divined by science, can be honed further by planned announcements, budget from hat budgets, etc etc to be sweeter still. So it’s never a surprise, it can only be the worst kept secret.
And no way, with a partys fortunes to consider, that politics is about ideas at the end of the day and that’s the reason you joined your party, will this decision be in the gift of one leader or clique around them, to call it whimsically, bouncing everybody with hardly planned last minute toss up decision.
PB threads today have been full of “well done to Moon Rabbit. Kudos.”
But thinking about how today unfolded, I fear my theory has been proved spectacularly wrong.
LAB 380 CON 200 LD 25 SNP 25 NI 18 PC 2 GRN 0 REF 0
???
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 SNP21 PLD4
Because LLG is in high fifties, and so practised at voting anti Tory in recent years.
Well done to you too, Pubman, you suggested last week in June for a long time while everyone else on here insisted Autumn or winter. You were only a week out. They were miles out.
I'm genuinely surprised Sunak has gone for July.
As some have said, maybe it's a cynical decision and he knows his time is up and he's just ready to move onto other things. It's not like he needs the money.
The other alternative is he knows the the economy is getting worse (inflation higher than predicted, remortgages sucking more and more disposable income out of the economy) and the size of the defeat will be greater the later he goes.
But kudos to him for calling it now rather than clinging on til the bitter end, and kudos to those on PB who called it right.
Sunak actually did something today that made most people in the country happy. It’s something we should always celebrate: a government following the conventions of democracy and calling a general election which we know will be, a few minor quibbles like voter ID aside, free and fair, and which it expects to lose. After which it will cooperate in the peaceful transfer of power.
Something we should cherish. We are very lucky to live in a rich liberal democracy where we can trust elections, know we have a free press that can openly mock both government and opposition without fear, and know that defeated governments will voluntarily relinquish power.
It is quite noticable how much older PMs generally were in the late 19th and mid 20th centuries.
Since 1990 only just under 4 years have been with a Prime Minister over 60.
Potentially going from the youngest in two centuries to oldest (at start) in 50 years seems like it would feel different, but probably won't.
The oddity with Starmer is that he’s older, but has zero experience of the political end of government. Very strange combination.
Indeed, he actually has little political experience, period, in a historical sense, even modern politics.
Apart from Sunak himself I think only Cameron would have had less time in Parliament than Starmer (by a couple of months) and both were very youthful PMs.
Not a dealbreaker of course, but notable.
Sunak meanwhile will have gone from first elected to minister to PM to backbench opposition within less than 10 years, if the polls are right! He might stick it out as an absentee MP just to get his total number of years in parliament up.
Glen O'Hara @gsoh31 · 1h Student visas are already down nearly 30%, and I would say between 10 and 20 universities are going to get into deep trouble. Another 10 to 20 will follow rapidly. Imagine sending a further signal that you want the numbers down... (1/2)
I've just received a letter from the Trustees and Headmaster of my local indepeneent school this evening. It will be closing from September this year. The charity is no longer viable. It's been in the community for 86 years. We're in shock, along with all the other parents and families, but it's the staff I really feel for many of whom have worked there for decades.
Glen O'Hara @gsoh31 · 1h Student visas are already down nearly 30%, and I would say between 10 and 20 universities are going to get into deep trouble. Another 10 to 20 will follow rapidly. Imagine sending a further signal that you want the numbers down... (1/2)
I've just received a letter from the Trustees and Headmaster of my local indepeneent school this evening. It will be closing from September this year. The charity is no longer viable. It's been in the community for 86 years. We're in shock, along with all the other parents and families, but it's the staff I really feel for many of whom have worked there for decades.
LAB 380 CON 200 LD 25 SNP 25 NI 18 PC 2 GRN 0 REF 0
???
Con holding on to 200 seats would be an amazing achievement in the circumstances.
I don’t think it’s that far-fetched; seems to track with the polling, no?
Blair won a much bigger majority on a 13-point lead. Tactical voting helped Labour then for sure (and hurt the Tories even more given the Lib Dems doubled their number of MPs despite a fall in their vote) but then all the evidence is that the public is up for tactical voting now.
Glen O'Hara @gsoh31 · 1h Student visas are already down nearly 30%, and I would say between 10 and 20 universities are going to get into deep trouble. Another 10 to 20 will follow rapidly. Imagine sending a further signal that you want the numbers down... (1/2)
I've just received a letter from the Trustees and Headmaster of my local indepeneent school this evening. It will be closing from September this year. The charity is no longer viable. It's been in the community for 86 years. We're in shock, along with all the other parents and families, but it's the staff I really feel for many of whom have worked there for decades.
Thanks Labour.
Ouch
It's just breathtaking. "Here's I am, with a petard. It's mine, my own petard. Gosh, I do wonder who, if anyone, will end up hoist by this, my own petard."
Glen O'Hara @gsoh31 · 1h Student visas are already down nearly 30%, and I would say between 10 and 20 universities are going to get into deep trouble. Another 10 to 20 will follow rapidly. Imagine sending a further signal that you want the numbers down... (1/2)
I've just received a letter from the Trustees and Headmaster of my local indepeneent school this evening. It will be closing from September this year. The charity is no longer viable. It's been in the community for 86 years. We're in shock, along with all the other parents and families, but it's the staff I really feel for many of whom have worked there for decades.
Thanks Labour.
Ouch
It's just breathtaking. "Here's I am, with a petard. It's mine, my own petard. Gosh, I do wonder who, if anyone, will end up hoist by this, my own petard."
I was looking at the MPs for the terribly named Richmond (Yorks) seat of our beloved Prime Minister. Call me crazy, but I am spotting a bit of a theme with the list.
Charles Dundas Lawrence Dundas George Dundas Charles Lawrence Dundas Thomas Dundas Robert Dundas John Dundas Lawrence Dundas (not the same one) John Dundas (ditto)
In fairness they also had a Roundell Palmer, Marmaduke Wyvill (a couple of them actually, one a chess master Rishi would no doubt have liked), and Murrough Wilson, so some solid names in there too.
It is quite noticable how much older PMs generally were in the late 19th and mid 20th centuries.
Since 1990 only just under 4 years have been with a Prime Minister over 60.
Potentially going from the youngest in two centuries to oldest (at start) in 50 years seems like it would feel different, but probably won't.
The oddity with Starmer is that he’s older, but has zero experience of the political end of government. Very strange combination.
Indeed, he actually has little political experience, period, in a historical sense, even modern politics.
Apart from Sunak himself I think only Cameron would have had less time in Parliament than Starmer (by a couple of months) and both were very youthful PMs.
Not a dealbreaker of course, but notable.
Sunak meanwhile will have gone from first elected to minister to PM to backbench opposition within less than 10 years, if the polls are right! He might stick it out as an absentee MP just to get his total number of years in parliament up.
If (when) he becomes PM, Starmer will be the PM to have entered parliament at the latest age, surpassing Neville Chamberlain, who was himself well ahead of the next (and Chamberlain was active in local politics prior to Westminster).
The next instalment in what I am now reluctantly calling the Star Trek "franchise" (oh look what they did to my boy) is "Star Trek: Starfleet Academy", set in the Discovery era. The sad things that one of my all-time favourite actresses, Holly Hunter, is playing the lead. I hope it does good for her career and not bad. ☹️
Glen O'Hara @gsoh31 · 1h Student visas are already down nearly 30%, and I would say between 10 and 20 universities are going to get into deep trouble. Another 10 to 20 will follow rapidly. Imagine sending a further signal that you want the numbers down... (1/2)
I've just received a letter from the Trustees and Headmaster of my local indepeneent school this evening. It will be closing from September this year. The charity is no longer viable. It's been in the community for 86 years. We're in shock, along with all the other parents and families, but it's the staff I really feel for many of whom have worked there for decades.
Thanks Labour.
Ouch
It's just breathtaking. "Here's I am, with a petard. It's mine, my own petard. Gosh, I do wonder who, if anyone, will end up hoist by this, my own petard."
Leave him alone.
It's far, far too funny for that to be even remotely possible, dobbin.
I don't blame them. At the end of the day, he's too much of a turd even to grant his MPs a few more months in paid employment before the wipeout that his awful premiership has guaranteed.
I can't think of a single redeeming feature as a politician. Truss tried to turn things around. Sunk preferred to preside over the sinking ship with a sub-Cameron level sneering superiority.
I suspect the change of date is under US pressure so it doesn't conflict with their sorry Presidential election.
Could have gone later if they wanted to avoid that, so I doubt it was the main reason, though it was probably factored in.
The fact it was literally the earliest an election could be whilst still the second half of the year as he promised suggests to me it was probably that they see no way to turn things around and no likely game changing events either.
So MPs can be mad, but it might save one or two of them.
It won't.
So you think Sunak would have turned things around and improved the situation between now and, say, October?
I think there would have been another budget, possibly a couple of interest rate drops, possibly some slightly better news on immigration, and possibly some good news on Rwanda. That doesn't amount to an election victory but it does amount to a better situation than going now, and the merit of governing for longer.
The 'wet' wing always does this. They demand loyalty when one of their own leads, but they're the biggest weasels going. Sunak has delivered the election to Labour with a big bow, after his entire sell was about saving the Tory MPs from defeat. The silly chumps believed him, and then were too cowardly to get rid when the writing was clearly on the wall.
I think it’s another “fiscal event” 4th July is running away from. By my calculations this was the very last moment Sunak could call it, otherwise election was October or later, and there would have to be both budget and conference. The Conservatives unexpected polling slump going into last year of parliament seemed to start during the last conference season. What tipped the balance I am sure is the realisation in the last week or so, that a pre election rabbit from the hat fiscal event, that would be expected with Oct Nov Dec election, has become absolutely impossible. The expectations for the autumn budget could never have been matched, and an awful way to launch a campaign. Not least, the rise in Defence Spending, so central to this June campaign with Rishi constantly taunting Starmer for not promising to match it, would never have got through an OBR this autumn alongside any tax cuts.
I reckon Labour will start running away from an Autumn budget too, and will wait till March/April for their first one.
If Labour has any sense, prepare for a brutal Autumn Budget. Much worse than necessary. All blame thrust on the hated, defeated, chaotically squabbling Tory rump. It's standard procedure. Daft not to.
Your post is good at a skim, but what detail you adding to Brutal Budget?
I’m convinced Sunak called election today to avoid a budget where expectations would be up there, but wriggle room is now non existent. True, for victorious Labour it’s not a campaign launch event, but they couldn’t spend, unless they raised - how many campaign promises broken in spirit if not fact with a brutal Autumn budget? And managing the same problems the Tory’s would have had, expectations of rabbits, where there’s not even rabbit droppings in this Autumns hat.
If Labour don’t mention Autumn budget, it means they are running away from it. If directly challenged and they reply, we don’t know yet as we will need to take stock, they will be clearly avoiding autumn budget, same as the Tories have with todays announcement.
Except if there'd been an October election called in September, there wouldn't have been an autumn budget either. Or even a November election called at, or immediately after, conference.
Glen O'Hara @gsoh31 · 1h Student visas are already down nearly 30%, and I would say between 10 and 20 universities are going to get into deep trouble. Another 10 to 20 will follow rapidly. Imagine sending a further signal that you want the numbers down... (1/2)
I've just received a letter from the Trustees and Headmaster of my local indepeneent school this evening. It will be closing from September this year. The charity is no longer viable. It's been in the community for 86 years. We're in shock, along with all the other parents and families, but it's the staff I really feel for many of whom have worked there for decades.
Thanks Labour.
Ouch
It's just breathtaking. "Here's I am, with a petard. It's mine, my own petard. Gosh, I do wonder who, if anyone, will end up hoist by this, my own petard."
Leave him alone.
It's far, far too funny for that to be even remotely possible, dobbin.
Whilst I concede the funny, mocking people for a personal loss is not good behaviour.
Glen O'Hara @gsoh31 · 1h Student visas are already down nearly 30%, and I would say between 10 and 20 universities are going to get into deep trouble. Another 10 to 20 will follow rapidly. Imagine sending a further signal that you want the numbers down... (1/2)
I've just received a letter from the Trustees and Headmaster of my local indepeneent school this evening. It will be closing from September this year. The charity is no longer viable. It's been in the community for 86 years. We're in shock, along with all the other parents and families, but it's the staff I really feel for many of whom have worked there for decades.
Thanks Labour.
Ouch
It's just breathtaking. "Here's I am, with a petard. It's mine, my own petard. Gosh, I do wonder who, if anyone, will end up hoist by this, my own petard."
Leave him alone.
It's far, far too funny for that to be even remotely possible, dobbin.
Whilst I concede the funny, mocking people for a personal loss is not good behaviour.
It's not the misfortune, it's the rich, sugary syrup of rapid karma I'm lapping up. We even have an expression for it in English: "a taste of his own medicine."
It's like someone burning a large denomination banknote in front of a homeless person, then taking a call from their accountant telling them that oops they're financially ruined. It'd take a hard heart not to think there's some divine poetry in that.
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
Is there something we don’t know?
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
I think the something we don't know was a credible threat from within the party. Things have got so much more dire since the local elections that a putsch was starting to look no madder than sticking with him. The cabinet meeting was an exercise in "look what you made me do, hope you're happy".
So May 2nd would have been good idea then? 😃
Combining the general with local elections would probably have saved a few dozen Tory councillors and the odd mayor by dragging out stay-at-home Conservative voters, so there was a certain electoral logic to it, as there was for going long. It is hard to see the case for the 4th of July.
4th July Avoids The no money left budget as election launch pad The morgue of a conference Record boat crossings. Boats not stopped as promised. No planes taking off to Rwanda as promised. An interim covid report An election with food prices, energy bills and inflation heading upwards. Again. Defections. Party turbulence. More voters remortgaging as interest rate cuts on pause for what seems like forever. (Farage coming back some would add, I don’t buy this one as serious impact so it’s in brackets) Full prisons, police told to stop arresting people. WTF 🤷♀️
These are just the known knowns in favour of July 4th over autumn.
The Autumn Statement (budget would have been fine as any measures would come into effect after the election). We already have record boat crossings and immigration. No-one cares about defections outside the bubble. Police have already been told to go easy owing to full prisons.
So there is no real case for July, unlike for May (locals) or playing it long.
Comments
Why have they not all been training for their next jobs in cyber?
My friends are organising a back up and have offered to remove me from the WhatsApp group to save me the pain
Con most seats has gone from 14.5 to 17.
But Con to lose over 200 seats has gone from 1.49 to 1.65.
So Con even less likely to win but also less likely to be a wipeout.
Labour and Labour supporters have really got to avoid being too triumphalist with this announcement. I’ve seen a lot of this on here since this afternoon. I want the Tories out, but I think it is dangerous to assume that this is a walk in the park. The more it looks inevitable, the more the risk grows. Let’s have a proper argument for a change of government.
Sheer hubris.
The 'wet' wing always does this. They demand loyalty when one of their own leads, but they're the biggest weasels going. Sunak has delivered the election to Labour with a big bow, after his entire sell was about saving the Tory MPs from defeat. The silly chumps believed him, and then were too cowardly to get rid when the writing was clearly on the wall.
I suspect dropping certain bills (e.g. Tobacco madness) won't be too hard when push comes to shove.....
Modelling here at @focaldataHQ suggests more modest Labour lead of 5-7% is enough for a majority. Now apparently called the “Election cat” @Psythor
If anything, he's likely to be over-cautious rather than triumphalist.
- Hyper targeting: don’t spread too thin, only focus on those seats where there’s a decent chance of actually winning. No wild goose chases after senior Tory decapitations.
- Lowish ambitions and realism: one question asked was what’s our realistic target. Someone from the campaign HQ answered 20, possibly 25 seats if we’re lucky.
That’s why you’re not seeing much of the party at national level. It’s gone very very local. Whether that works…not sure. We’ll see. Could leave a few competitive seats on the table and save some blue wall Tories.
He is wooden and verbose but not one for gaffes.
Sunak is a loose cannon, as we have seen today. His meet the people events will boost popcorn sales tremendously.
A few Lib Dems who are relishing the Tory apocalypse, but not really focused on Labour performance. A few Scotnats likewise. But neither group could be called Labour triumphalists.
Most people in Labour I know are shitting themselves. They really believe the party has some sort of hex over it that means it will always lose elections against the odds.
They're historically not great at GEs.
I reckon Labour will start running away from an Autumn budget too, and will wait till March/April for their first one.
I now live in Ed Davey's seat so I'll actually be voting for the winning party at a general election for the first time ever!
Lib Dem seats are pretty much inversely proportional to Tory vote share. Much more so than they are positively proportional to Lib Dem vote share.
1983: huge alliance vote share, but Tory landslide and poor seat count. 1987 and 1992 high Tory vote share and mediocre alliance/Libdem result. 1997 LD vote share goes down but massive increase in seats because Tories collapse. 2001 and 2005 high seat count as Tories remain in doldrums. 2010 Lib Dem votes go up, seats actually go down. 2015 decimation that yes coincides with collapse in LD share but also surprisingly good Con performance. 2017 share goes down but so do Tories, and Lib Dems gain seats. 2019 LDs go up in share but Tories score landslide and LD seats go down.
History would suggest that if the blues are getting a shellacking that’ll hand the yellows a number of seats even if they stand still.
Careful seat targeting is the right strategy.
LAB 380 CON 200 LD 25 SNP 25 NI 18 PC 2 GRN 0 REF 0
???
It's standard procedure. Daft not to.
In the modern era with camera phones everywhere these moments are far more likely.
Sunak isn't good at it at all, and it will be town halls with heavily vetted, invited audiences.
Additionally, with Sunak, it's not that he's bad with angry people per se. His problem is that he is very out of touch and low on empathy. So he'll get someone in despair on low income, and say they should try going to the spa and get a job in finance.
Englandthe remaining British team”. Unfortunately, they’re not that stupid.It'd still mean precise targeting of resources, but perhaps just meaning they can focus on more than before as they can feel relatively safe for the first time on a few.
I’m convinced Sunak called election today to avoid a budget where expectations would be up there, but wriggle room is now non existent. True, for victorious Labour it’s not a campaign launch event, but they couldn’t spend, unless they raised - how many campaign promises broken in spirit if not fact with a brutal Autumn budget? And managing the same problems the Tory’s would have had, expectations of rabbits, where there’s not even rabbit droppings in this Autumns hat.
If Labour don’t mention Autumn budget, it means they are running away from it. If directly challenged and they reply, we don’t know yet as we will need to take stock, they will be clearly avoiding autumn budget, same as the Tories have with todays announcement.
Brown is by all accounts very nice and friendly personally, as is SKS - who comes across much better in small groups.
Guildford, LD should win
Esher and Walton, LD should win
Godalming and Ash, LDs should win (but Hunt being the candidate might scupper it)
Dorking and Horley, LDs stand a good chance (and have an excellent candidate)
Woking, LDs stand a good chance
Farnham and Bordon, LDs should stand a good chance, but I don't know how much it has been worked
Surrey Heath, LDs should not win, but maybe a surprise. Ed Davey visited there today. LDs very strong here recently but Gove has a decent majority.
So if the LDs have a bad night they may gain none of these, but if they are making a number of gains all these ones are in play in Surrey.
The base will never forgive her (or people like Bill Barr or Pence who savagely criticised Trump but will still vote for him), so there's still no future career prospects to be gained from bending knee and it is hardly worth it.
Not that I'd expect more than a bare handful of people to outright say they will vote for Biden over Trump, but it'd have been nice if there were at least a few more who were willing to not endorse him.
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley plans to vote for Donald Trump, she said Wednesday in her first public remarks since exiting the Republican presidential primary more than two months ago.
Haley said Trump “has not been perfect” on policies important to her, including foreign policy, immigration and the economy, but President Joe Biden “has been a catastrophe.”
“So I will be voting for Trump,” said Haley, who served as US ambassador to the United Nations under the former president.
cuts. Forgive me if I don't see any promises to break?
All of these will be focused on Tory failings.
Because LLG is in high fifties, and so practised at voting anti Tory in recent years.
Well done to you too, Pubman, you suggested last week in June for a long time while everyone else on here insisted Autumn or winter. You were only a week out. They were miles out.
If Trump is convicted of a crime (which may be next week, though no certainty he will be convicted of course), I think many people will be surprised at how little it moves the dial. People like Haley aren't going to withdraw their endorsements, if it mattered to them at all they'd have held off until after the verdict.
Even with 'independents' I think it will have less impact than predicted, though I do think it will have at least some impact with them, though not with the GOP base.
I mean, most GOP officials are on record as thinking the last election was stolen and all the criminal trials (never mind this one which is more minor) are rigged and phony, and their preferred media tells that story as well, so why would more than a handful change their tune? I don't buy polls suggesting otherwise, it makes no logical sense based on their belief the trials are a hoax.
Of course you are local and will have more knowledge than me 👍
https://x.com/deepbluecrypto/status/1761733781793219065?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
As some have said, maybe it's a cynical decision and he knows his time is up and he's just ready to move onto other things. It's not like he needs the money.
The other alternative is he knows the the economy is getting worse (inflation higher than predicted, remortgages sucking more and more disposable income out of the economy) and the size of the defeat will be greater the later he goes.
But kudos to him for calling it now rather than clinging on til the bitter end, and kudos to those on PB who called it right.
GN all
Since 1990 only just under 4 years have been with a Prime Minister over 60.
Potentially going from the youngest in two centuries to oldest (at start) in 50 years seems like it would feel different, but probably won't.
The downside in any prediction from me is I am obviously biased.
The local election results in Woking, Mole Valley (Dorking) and Surrey Heath have also been dramatic. They have all had near or total Tory wipeouts. Now Locals aren't Generals so one shouldn't extrapolate and there have been some special reasons (eg the Tories bankrupted Woking), but Surrey Heath for instance used to be 100% Tory. Now they are an endangered species and the LDs are rampant, which is why I add Surrey Heath when it should be 100% Tory hold.
To be honest I am not predicting. It is far to early, especially with the LDs so low in the polls, but if the LDs are winning their targets across the country I would put all 7 of these in the frame. If the LDs aren't performing it could be none. The point is they are as good a shot as anywhere else they are targeting and it is a cluster of up to 7 in Surrey.
They must have been shown some horror scenarios to think now was the time to go.
The no money left budget as election launch pad
The morgue of a conference
Record boat crossings. Boats not stopped as promised.
No planes taking off to Rwanda as promised.
An interim covid report
An election with food prices, energy bills and inflation heading upwards. Again.
Defections. Party turbulence.
More voters remortgaging as interest rate cuts on pause for what seems like forever.
(Farage coming back some would add, I don’t buy this one as serious impact so it’s in brackets)
Full prisons, police told to stop arresting people. WTF 🤷♀️
These are just the known knowns in favour of July 4th over autumn.
Sir Frederick: [...] there are four words to be included in a proposal if you want it thrown out.
Sir Humphrey: Complicated. Lengthy. Expensive. Controversial. And if you want to be really sure that the Minister doesn't accept it, you must say the decision is "courageous".
Bernard: And that's worse than "controversial"?
Sir Humphrey: Oh, yes! "Controversial" only means "this will lose you votes". "Courageous" means "this will lose you the election"!
That’s the thing isn’t it.
The main point I was trying to make all year, was that election date not down to the whim of Sunak but decided by analytical electoral science. The science can crunch all the planned data release dates and and what they likely say, all the forecast modelling - boat crossings, energy cost drops/rises on inflation and household and business bills - it can find you a sweet spot, 5 weeks to campaign in when promising news comes in, hope is in the air. And that sweet spot, divined by science, can be honed further by planned announcements, budget from hat budgets, etc etc to be sweeter still. So it’s never a surprise, it can only be the worst kept secret.
And no way, with a partys fortunes to consider, that politics is about ideas at the end of the day and that’s the reason you joined your party, will this decision be in the gift of one leader or clique around them, to call it whimsically, bouncing everybody with hardly planned last minute toss up decision.
PB threads today have been full of “well done to Moon Rabbit. Kudos.”
But thinking about how today unfolded, I fear my theory has been proved spectacularly wrong.
Something we should cherish. We are very lucky to live in a rich liberal democracy where we can trust elections, know we have a free press that can openly mock both government and opposition without fear, and know that defeated governments will voluntarily relinquish power.
Apart from Sunak himself I think only Cameron would have had less time in Parliament than Starmer (by a couple of months) and both were very youthful PMs.
Not a dealbreaker of course, but notable.
Sunak meanwhile will have gone from first elected to minister to PM to backbench opposition within less than 10 years, if the polls are right! He might stick it out as an absentee MP just to get his total number of years in parliament up.
Charles Dundas
Lawrence Dundas
George Dundas
Charles Lawrence Dundas
Thomas Dundas
Robert Dundas
John Dundas
Lawrence Dundas (not the same one)
John Dundas (ditto)
In fairness they also had a Roundell Palmer, Marmaduke Wyvill (a couple of them actually, one a chess master Rishi would no doubt have liked), and Murrough Wilson, so some solid names in there too.
https://www.screennearyou.com/tv-shows/holly-hunter-has-been-identified-as-the-series-lead-in-star-trek-starfleet-academy/
It's like someone burning a large denomination banknote in front of a homeless person, then taking a call from their accountant telling them that oops they're financially ruined. It'd take a hard heart not to think there's some divine poetry in that.
So there is no real case for July, unlike for May (locals) or playing it long.