I wonder if there may be Black Swans ahead (there always are - ed.) chatting to a friend this weekend who is involved in corporate security, I asked if there was anywhere I shouldn't be planning a holiday apart from Taiwan ("absolutely not") - to my surprises, "Japan" was mentioned - which I suppose makes sense....
Why is that? (Genuinely asking for a friend)
If it goes tits up in Taiwan a lot of US military is there, so if the US is involved, Japan is involved, and Japan can build nukes in two seconds flat...
I hold very little hope Sunak will have a good campaign.
But, at some point, media scrutiny will start to shine very brightly on SKS as the prospective incoming PM rather than the incumbent government.
And it won't all go to plan.
I think his biggest risk will be appearing inflexible and robotic, sticking too intensely to an agreed line to avoid a risk. Brexit and Corbyn attacks I think he can slide past.
Yes. He's sort of similar to TM in that sense, but is less stubborn and terrified of people.
Safe to say that the Torie’s support on this website is… limited. Why they ever threw Boris away in the hope they could secure parts of this demographic is beyond me.
They are going to spend a month learning why they should have kept him.
They didn't. He was forced out for repeatedly lying to Parliament, serial criminal behaviour during lockdown and condoning rampaging corruption.
Small beer compared to Trump, but he would have been far more of a liability than an asset had he stayed.
I can still believe they'd be doing better in the polls now if he had been kept (depending on how the standards stuff had been handled), not least because whilst they'd still have internal divisions, they wouldn't have a sizable rebellious flank pretty much hoping they lose to punish them.
But too often the hypothetical scenario ignores why he was ousted in the first place. Why the leader at a landslide victory was then deemed such a liability just 3 years later when he should have been safe.
Like Boris or not, the very fact he was successfully ousted speaks against the idea that he would have been strong and dynamic enough to be doing vastly better now.
I hold very little hope Sunak will have a good campaign.
But, at some point, media scrutiny will start to shine very brightly on SKS as the prospective incoming PM rather than the incumbent government.
And it won't all go to plan.
I think his biggest risk will be appearing inflexible and robotic, sticking too intensely to an agreed line to avoid a risk. Brexit and Corbyn attacks I think he can slide past.
Today was a real indication of his inflexibility problem.
Making a lame joke acknowledging it was pissing it down is pretty basic stuff. That he pretended it wasn't happening was dreadful, but that's just him.
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
Is there something we don’t know?
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
I'm fairly sure that last week's high court ruling in Belfast scuppered the Rwanda flights for the foreseeable future.
At the very least, it opened the way for fresh legal challenges before the first flight takes off - and I suspect they realised that there was now a good chance that there wouldn't have been any flights before the next election, no matter when it was called.
Doesn’t the ruling only effect the removal of people from Northern Ireland?
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
Is there something we don’t know?
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
I'm fairly sure that last week's high court ruling in Belfast scuppered the Rwanda flights for the foreseeable future.
At the very least, it opened the way for fresh legal challenges before the first flight takes off - and I suspect they realised that there was now a good chance that there wouldn't have been any flights before the next election, no matter when it was called.
Boat Crossings currently running at record levels for time of year, and on the graph they always shoot up from July onwards. They needed flights in the air same time as surge to limit the political fallout.
Other things than courts could be an issue - like knowing where the ones best suited to get through court appeals actually are? It looked like RAF flights, could a problem have emerged with that? Issues at the Rwanda end, who have seemed to be going lukewarm on it for sometime? Rwanda needed to consider Starmer seeking end to the arrangement from Day 1, based on that Rwanda still keen on proceeding?
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
Is there something we don’t know?
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
I'm fairly sure that last week's high court ruling in Belfast scuppered the Rwanda flights for the foreseeable future.
At the very least, it opened the way for fresh legal challenges before the first flight takes off - and I suspect they realised that there was now a good chance that there wouldn't have been any flights before the next election, no matter when it was called.
With the law's delays and certainty of appeal and the process not beyond very preliminary stages it's a racing certainty flights won't happen. There just isn't time.
Part of Sunak's cunning plan is that the date he has set allows him leeway, when addressing the gullible, to say 'Vote Tory to see the Rwanda thingy through, don't let Labour/leftie lawyers spoil it.'
And it is, while worthless rubbish, a piece of clear blue water in an election where there isn't much.
BTW my view that NoM is possible rests in part on Reform either being marginalised down to nothing much, or in fact doing a deal with the Tories as in 2019. This will get trashed if Farage announces he is taking over the reins of Reform.
Whenever I think people on here can be too harsh on the Tories I reflect on some relatives, who among other things were passionately convinced the Tories would not even hold the next election if they looked likely to lose it, but would just stay in office without one.
Ok, it's from a GB "News" journalist, but funny if true
"👀 Wow! Extraordinary but true - some furious Conservative MPs are tonight working on a plot to CALL OFF the general election by replacing Rishi Sunak as leader before Parliament is dissolved next Thursday. One rebel Tory MP tells me he believes “several” more letters of no confidence in Sunak have been submitted to 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady. The MP: “Today has clearly been an absolute disaster but the election is NOT irrevocable; up until the point of the Dissolution of Parliament - when the writs are moved to begin the contests, it can still be aborted. “In other words, if enough Tory MPs, who are clearly going to lose their seats in this already utterly shambolic campaign, write to Sir Graham Brady, tomorrow , the election could still be revoked.”"
Whenever I think people on here can be too harsh on the Tories I reflect on some relatives, who among other things were passionately convinced the Tories would not even hold the next election if they looked likely to lose it, but would just stay in office without one.
Gordon Brown gave that as one of his reasons for hanging on in 2010.
Once they get in, we'll never get them out, no matter how badly they lose an election, he said.
Ok, it's from a GB "News" journalist, but funny if true
"👀 Wow! Extraordinary but true - some furious Conservative MPs are tonight working on a plot to CALL OFF the general election by replacing Rishi Sunak as leader before Parliament is dissolved next Thursday. One rebel Tory MP tells me he believes “several” more letters of no confidence in Sunak have been submitted to 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady. The MP: “Today has clearly been an absolute disaster but the election is NOT irrevocable; up until the point of the Dissolution of Parliament - when the writs are moved to begin the contests, it can still be aborted. “In other words, if enough Tory MPs, who are clearly going to lose their seats in this already utterly shambolic campaign, write to Sir Graham Brady, tomorrow , the election could still be revoked.”"
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
Is there something we don’t know?
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
I'm fairly sure that last week's high court ruling in Belfast scuppered the Rwanda flights for the foreseeable future.
At the very least, it opened the way for fresh legal challenges before the first flight takes off - and I suspect they realised that there was now a good chance that there wouldn't have been any flights before the next election, no matter when it was called.
With the law's delays and certainty of appeal and the process not beyond very preliminary stages it's a racing certainty flights won't happen. There just isn't time.
Part of Sunak's cunning plan is that the date he has set allows him leeway, when addressing the gullible, to say 'Vote Tory to see the Rwanda thingy through, don't let Labour/leftie lawyers spoil it.'
And it is, while worthless rubbish, a piece of clear blue water in an election where there isn't much.
BTW my view that NoM is possible rests in part on Reform either being marginalised down to nothing much, or in fact doing a deal with the Tories as in 2019. This will get trashed if Farage announces he is taking over the reins of Reform.
Reform UK have announced a deal for the general election!
Ok, it's from a GB "News" journalist, but funny if true
"👀 Wow! Extraordinary but true - some furious Conservative MPs are tonight working on a plot to CALL OFF the general election by replacing Rishi Sunak as leader before Parliament is dissolved next Thursday. One rebel Tory MP tells me he believes “several” more letters of no confidence in Sunak have been submitted to 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady. The MP: “Today has clearly been an absolute disaster but the election is NOT irrevocable; up until the point of the Dissolution of Parliament - when the writs are moved to begin the contests, it can still be aborted. “In other words, if enough Tory MPs, who are clearly going to lose their seats in this already utterly shambolic campaign, write to Sir Graham Brady, tomorrow , the election could still be revoked.”"
Whenever I think people on here can be too harsh on the Tories I reflect on some relatives, who among other things were passionately convinced the Tories would not even hold the next election if they looked likely to lose it, but would just stay in office without one.
I doubt there will be the slightest peep of dissent when Labour romp home.
One of the most horrific themes of the Brexit referendum was Anna Soubry.
Ok, it's from a GB "News" journalist, but funny if true
"👀 Wow! Extraordinary but true - some furious Conservative MPs are tonight working on a plot to CALL OFF the general election by replacing Rishi Sunak as leader before Parliament is dissolved next Thursday. One rebel Tory MP tells me he believes “several” more letters of no confidence in Sunak have been submitted to 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady. The MP: “Today has clearly been an absolute disaster but the election is NOT irrevocable; up until the point of the Dissolution of Parliament - when the writs are moved to begin the contests, it can still be aborted. “In other words, if enough Tory MPs, who are clearly going to lose their seats in this already utterly shambolic campaign, write to Sir Graham Brady, tomorrow , the election could still be revoked.”"
I am going to judicially review the King's decision not to refuse a dissolution under the Lascelles principles
That would be quite amusing to see attempted, given the insertion into the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act of a provision to prevent legal challenges. No idea whether revival means Lascelles is more in play.
A court or tribunal may not question—
(a)the exercise or purported exercise of the powers referred to in section 2 (revivial of prerogative powers to dissolve parliament and to call a new parliament),
(b)any decision or purported decision relating to those powers, or
Ok, it's from a GB "News" journalist, but funny if true
"👀 Wow! Extraordinary but true - some furious Conservative MPs are tonight working on a plot to CALL OFF the general election by replacing Rishi Sunak as leader before Parliament is dissolved next Thursday. One rebel Tory MP tells me he believes “several” more letters of no confidence in Sunak have been submitted to 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady. The MP: “Today has clearly been an absolute disaster but the election is NOT irrevocable; up until the point of the Dissolution of Parliament - when the writs are moved to begin the contests, it can still be aborted. “In other words, if enough Tory MPs, who are clearly going to lose their seats in this already utterly shambolic campaign, write to Sir Graham Brady, tomorrow , the election could still be revoked.”"
Ok, it's from a GB "News" journalist, but funny if true
"👀 Wow! Extraordinary but true - some furious Conservative MPs are tonight working on a plot to CALL OFF the general election by replacing Rishi Sunak as leader before Parliament is dissolved next Thursday. One rebel Tory MP tells me he believes “several” more letters of no confidence in Sunak have been submitted to 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady. The MP: “Today has clearly been an absolute disaster but the election is NOT irrevocable; up until the point of the Dissolution of Parliament - when the writs are moved to begin the contests, it can still be aborted. “In other words, if enough Tory MPs, who are clearly going to lose their seats in this already utterly shambolic campaign, write to Sir Graham Brady, tomorrow , the election could still be revoked.”"
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
Is there something we don’t know?
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
I'm fairly sure that last week's high court ruling in Belfast scuppered the Rwanda flights for the foreseeable future.
At the very least, it opened the way for fresh legal challenges before the first flight takes off - and I suspect they realised that there was now a good chance that there wouldn't have been any flights before the next election, no matter when it was called.
With the law's delays and certainty of appeal and the process not beyond very preliminary stages it's a racing certainty flights won't happen. There just isn't time.
Part of Sunak's cunning plan is that the date he has set allows him leeway, when addressing the gullible, to say 'Vote Tory to see the Rwanda thingy through, don't let Labour/leftie lawyers spoil it.'
And it is, while worthless rubbish, a piece of clear blue water in an election where there isn't much.
BTW my view that NoM is possible rests in part on Reform either being marginalised down to nothing much, or in fact doing a deal with the Tories as in 2019. This will get trashed if Farage announces he is taking over the reins of Reform.
Reform UK have announced a deal for the general election!
With the SDP.
The "Continuing SDP" surely.
With a total of 3295 votes in 2019 (across all constituencies) they may well do worse than Binface.
Ok, it's from a GB "News" journalist, but funny if true
"👀 Wow! Extraordinary but true - some furious Conservative MPs are tonight working on a plot to CALL OFF the general election by replacing Rishi Sunak as leader before Parliament is dissolved next Thursday. One rebel Tory MP tells me he believes “several” more letters of no confidence in Sunak have been submitted to 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady. The MP: “Today has clearly been an absolute disaster but the election is NOT irrevocable; up until the point of the Dissolution of Parliament - when the writs are moved to begin the contests, it can still be aborted. “In other words, if enough Tory MPs, who are clearly going to lose their seats in this already utterly shambolic campaign, write to Sir Graham Brady, tomorrow , the election could still be revoked.”"
What a fabulous idea. Problem - so many of the MPs who are going to lose are so dumb that they think they are going to win. So why delay an election where you are going to win a glorious victory?
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
Is there something we don’t know?
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
I'm fairly sure that last week's high court ruling in Belfast scuppered the Rwanda flights for the foreseeable future.
At the very least, it opened the way for fresh legal challenges before the first flight takes off - and I suspect they realised that there was now a good chance that there wouldn't have been any flights before the next election, no matter when it was called.
With the law's delays and certainty of appeal and the process not beyond very preliminary stages it's a racing certainty flights won't happen. There just isn't time.
Part of Sunak's cunning plan is that the date he has set allows him leeway, when addressing the gullible, to say 'Vote Tory to see the Rwanda thingy through, don't let Labour/leftie lawyers spoil it.'
And it is, while worthless rubbish, a piece of clear blue water in an election where there isn't much.
BTW my view that NoM is possible rests in part on Reform either being marginalised down to nothing much, or in fact doing a deal with the Tories as in 2019. This will get trashed if Farage announces he is taking over the reins of Reform.
Reform UK have announced a deal for the general election!
With the SDP.
The "Continuing SDP" surely.
With a total of 3295 votes in 2019 (across all constituencies) they may well do worse than Binface.
The Count lost to Lord Buckethead in 2019 with only 69 votes, so that would be poor indeed. Though he did much better in the mayoralties.
Ok, it's from a GB "News" journalist, but funny if true
"👀 Wow! Extraordinary but true - some furious Conservative MPs are tonight working on a plot to CALL OFF the general election by replacing Rishi Sunak as leader before Parliament is dissolved next Thursday. One rebel Tory MP tells me he believes “several” more letters of no confidence in Sunak have been submitted to 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady. The MP: “Today has clearly been an absolute disaster but the election is NOT irrevocable; up until the point of the Dissolution of Parliament - when the writs are moved to begin the contests, it can still be aborted. “In other words, if enough Tory MPs, who are clearly going to lose their seats in this already utterly shambolic campaign, write to Sir Graham Brady, tomorrow , the election could still be revoked.”"
Andrea Jenkyns and co appear to have forgotten they not only need 52 twats but about 174 to vote no confidence. Brady will 'forget' to count again before prorogation if it gets close
Ok, it's from a GB "News" journalist, but funny if true
"👀 Wow! Extraordinary but true - some furious Conservative MPs are tonight working on a plot to CALL OFF the general election by replacing Rishi Sunak as leader before Parliament is dissolved next Thursday. One rebel Tory MP tells me he believes “several” more letters of no confidence in Sunak have been submitted to 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady. The MP: “Today has clearly been an absolute disaster but the election is NOT irrevocable; up until the point of the Dissolution of Parliament - when the writs are moved to begin the contests, it can still be aborted. “In other words, if enough Tory MPs, who are clearly going to lose their seats in this already utterly shambolic campaign, write to Sir Graham Brady, tomorrow , the election could still be revoked.”"
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
Is there something we don’t know?
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
I'm fairly sure that last week's high court ruling in Belfast scuppered the Rwanda flights for the foreseeable future.
At the very least, it opened the way for fresh legal challenges before the first flight takes off - and I suspect they realised that there was now a good chance that there wouldn't have been any flights before the next election, no matter when it was called.
With the law's delays and certainty of appeal and the process not beyond very preliminary stages it's a racing certainty flights won't happen. There just isn't time.
Part of Sunak's cunning plan is that the date he has set allows him leeway, when addressing the gullible, to say 'Vote Tory to see the Rwanda thingy through, don't let Labour/leftie lawyers spoil it.'
And it is, while worthless rubbish, a piece of clear blue water in an election where there isn't much.
BTW my view that NoM is possible rests in part on Reform either being marginalised down to nothing much, or in fact doing a deal with the Tories as in 2019. This will get trashed if Farage announces he is taking over the reins of Reform.
Reform UK have announced a deal for the general election!
With the SDP.
The "Continuing SDP" surely.
With a total of 3295 votes in 2019 (across all constituencies) they may well do worse than Binface.
No, the Continuity SDP wound itself up. This is the Continuity Continuity SDP!
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
Is there something we don’t know?
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
I'm fairly sure that last week's high court ruling in Belfast scuppered the Rwanda flights for the foreseeable future.
At the very least, it opened the way for fresh legal challenges before the first flight takes off - and I suspect they realised that there was now a good chance that there wouldn't have been any flights before the next election, no matter when it was called.
With the law's delays and certainty of appeal and the process not beyond very preliminary stages it's a racing certainty flights won't happen. There just isn't time.
Part of Sunak's cunning plan is that the date he has set allows him leeway, when addressing the gullible, to say 'Vote Tory to see the Rwanda thingy through, don't let Labour/leftie lawyers spoil it.'
And it is, while worthless rubbish, a piece of clear blue water in an election where there isn't much.
BTW my view that NoM is possible rests in part on Reform either being marginalised down to nothing much, or in fact doing a deal with the Tories as in 2019. This will get trashed if Farage announces he is taking over the reins of Reform.
Reform UK have announced a deal for the general election!
With the SDP.
The "Continuing SDP" surely.
With a total of 3295 votes in 2019 (across all constituencies) they may well do worse than Binface.
Theyve announced just shy of 100 candidates this time
Ok, it's from a GB "News" journalist, but funny if true
"👀 Wow! Extraordinary but true - some furious Conservative MPs are tonight working on a plot to CALL OFF the general election by replacing Rishi Sunak as leader before Parliament is dissolved next Thursday. One rebel Tory MP tells me he believes “several” more letters of no confidence in Sunak have been submitted to 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady. The MP: “Today has clearly been an absolute disaster but the election is NOT irrevocable; up until the point of the Dissolution of Parliament - when the writs are moved to begin the contests, it can still be aborted. “In other words, if enough Tory MPs, who are clearly going to lose their seats in this already utterly shambolic campaign, write to Sir Graham Brady, tomorrow , the election could still be revoked.”"
Does this mean any Lab seat that has not finished selection will now have NEC/leader approved candidates parachuted in?
What will happen now in Islington North?
Paul Mason presumably.
Honestly they might as well go for him. He's an unstable wildcard, but the local party are mutinous over not getting Saint Jeremy, so might as well just piss them off fully and select someone outside entirely.
I bloody hope not - I'll be back to voting Lib Dem if they do.
If they want a big name, Wolmar would be a better choice, but I expect them to choose one of the local options - Praful Nargund would be the obvious choice if he's on the shortlist.
Ok, it's from a GB "News" journalist, but funny if true
"👀 Wow! Extraordinary but true - some furious Conservative MPs are tonight working on a plot to CALL OFF the general election by replacing Rishi Sunak as leader before Parliament is dissolved next Thursday. One rebel Tory MP tells me he believes “several” more letters of no confidence in Sunak have been submitted to 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady. The MP: “Today has clearly been an absolute disaster but the election is NOT irrevocable; up until the point of the Dissolution of Parliament - when the writs are moved to begin the contests, it can still be aborted. “In other words, if enough Tory MPs, who are clearly going to lose their seats in this already utterly shambolic campaign, write to Sir Graham Brady, tomorrow , the election could still be revoked.”"
The times we live in. Actual Tory MPs seem to be plotting to put the King in an awful position.
Tory MPs are some of the most revolutionary of all. They care not for any convention, statute, or institution, if it stands in their way. They will, like JRM, happily invent new principles (like it not being proper for MPs to remove a PM - not merely that it is a bad idea), to do so.
Interesting that the reaction of Tory MPs tonight is fatalistic about the result but fury at Sunak. They thought they had 5/6 months to get a job, to plan their lives. They think Sunak doesn't care about them with his millions and his US home. "Selfish" a word I've heard a lot
Does this mean any Lab seat that has not finished selection will now have NEC/leader approved candidates parachuted in?
What will happen now in Islington North?
Yes. Diane Abbot. She said only black people suffer real prejudice, not Jews. And in defence claimed she don’t actually believe that - though presumably wrote it, and gave it to the Observer to print, accidentally?
Interesting that the reaction of Tory MPs tonight is fatalistic about the result but fury at Sunak. They thought they had 5/6 months to get a job, to plan their lives. They think Sunak doesn't care about them with his millions and his US home. "Selfish" a word I've heard a lot
A great many pieces of vile self centred flotsam are about to be flushed.
Ok, it's from a GB "News" journalist, but funny if true
"👀 Wow! Extraordinary but true - some furious Conservative MPs are tonight working on a plot to CALL OFF the general election by replacing Rishi Sunak as leader before Parliament is dissolved next Thursday. One rebel Tory MP tells me he believes “several” more letters of no confidence in Sunak have been submitted to 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady. The MP: “Today has clearly been an absolute disaster but the election is NOT irrevocable; up until the point of the Dissolution of Parliament - when the writs are moved to begin the contests, it can still be aborted. “In other words, if enough Tory MPs, who are clearly going to lose their seats in this already utterly shambolic campaign, write to Sir Graham Brady, tomorrow , the election could still be revoked.”"
Interesting that the reaction of Tory MPs tonight is fatalistic about the result but fury at Sunak. They thought they had 5/6 months to get a job, to plan their lives. They think Sunak doesn't care about them with his millions and his US home. "Selfish" a word I've heard a lot
Ok, it's from a GB "News" journalist, but funny if true
"👀 Wow! Extraordinary but true - some furious Conservative MPs are tonight working on a plot to CALL OFF the general election by replacing Rishi Sunak as leader before Parliament is dissolved next Thursday. One rebel Tory MP tells me he believes “several” more letters of no confidence in Sunak have been submitted to 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady. The MP: “Today has clearly been an absolute disaster but the election is NOT irrevocable; up until the point of the Dissolution of Parliament - when the writs are moved to begin the contests, it can still be aborted. “In other words, if enough Tory MPs, who are clearly going to lose their seats in this already utterly shambolic campaign, write to Sir Graham Brady, tomorrow , the election could still be revoked.”"
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
Is there something we don’t know?
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
I'm fairly sure that last week's high court ruling in Belfast scuppered the Rwanda flights for the foreseeable future.
At the very least, it opened the way for fresh legal challenges before the first flight takes off - and I suspect they realised that there was now a good chance that there wouldn't have been any flights before the next election, no matter when it was called.
With the law's delays and certainty of appeal and the process not beyond very preliminary stages it's a racing certainty flights won't happen. There just isn't time.
Part of Sunak's cunning plan is that the date he has set allows him leeway, when addressing the gullible, to say 'Vote Tory to see the Rwanda thingy through, don't let Labour/leftie lawyers spoil it.'
And it is, while worthless rubbish, a piece of clear blue water in an election where there isn't much.
BTW my view that NoM is possible rests in part on Reform either being marginalised down to nothing much, or in fact doing a deal with the Tories as in 2019. This will get trashed if Farage announces he is taking over the reins of Reform.
Reform UK have announced a deal for the general election!
With the SDP.
The "Continuing SDP" surely.
With a total of 3295 votes in 2019 (across all constituencies) they may well do worse than Binface.
Theyve announced just shy of 100 candidates this time
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
Is there something we don’t know?
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
I think the something we don't know was a credible threat from within the party. Things have got so much more dire since the local elections that a putsch was starting to look no madder than sticking with him. The cabinet meeting was an exercise in "look what you made me do, hope you're happy".
Ok, it's from a GB "News" journalist, but funny if true
"👀 Wow! Extraordinary but true - some furious Conservative MPs are tonight working on a plot to CALL OFF the general election by replacing Rishi Sunak as leader before Parliament is dissolved next Thursday. One rebel Tory MP tells me he believes “several” more letters of no confidence in Sunak have been submitted to 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady. The MP: “Today has clearly been an absolute disaster but the election is NOT irrevocable; up until the point of the Dissolution of Parliament - when the writs are moved to begin the contests, it can still be aborted. “In other words, if enough Tory MPs, who are clearly going to lose their seats in this already utterly shambolic campaign, write to Sir Graham Brady, tomorrow , the election could still be revoked.”"
These people are supposed to be democrats. What on earth could they be afraid of?
They also dont appear to realise Sunak will still be PM and retain the confidence of the house, and thus dissolution goes on. The government will not table any VONC in parliament as there is no need as it is dissolving so the rebels would merely achieve going into a GE leaderless
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
Is there something we don’t know?
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
I'm fairly sure that last week's high court ruling in Belfast scuppered the Rwanda flights for the foreseeable future.
At the very least, it opened the way for fresh legal challenges before the first flight takes off - and I suspect they realised that there was now a good chance that there wouldn't have been any flights before the next election, no matter when it was called.
Doesn’t the ruling only effect the removal of people from Northern Ireland?
That's the government's position, certainly. But it's likely to need another trip through the High Court in London to confirm that. Getting multiple flights off before the election is no longer as likely as it might have seemed a couple of weeks ago...
I don't blame them. At the end of the day, he's too much of a turd even to grant his MPs a few more months in paid employment before the wipeout that his awful premiership has guaranteed.
I can't think of a single redeeming feature as a politician. Truss tried to turn things around. Sunk preferred to preside over the sinking ship with a sub-Cameron level sneering superiority.
I suspect the change of date is under US pressure so it doesn't conflict with their sorry Presidential election.
At least the GE will get rid of some of the appalling Tory MP'S , the trouble is is that the HoC will then be faced with an incoming equal or greater number of appalling Labour MP,s. It will soon be clear who they are.
Interesting that the reaction of Tory MPs tonight is fatalistic about the result but fury at Sunak. They thought they had 5/6 months to get a job, to plan their lives. They think Sunak doesn't care about them with his millions and his US home. "Selfish" a word I've heard a lot
A great many pieces of vile self centred flotsam are about to be flushed.
For me, Victoria Atkins would be a loss to politics. She is a strong and effective Conservative politician, and this election campaign will show it.
Every vote for the @scottishgreens on July 4th will be a vote to put people and planet before profit.
Any slogan which no one could disagree with is meaningless. That one is pretty close, but in fairness I think we get the gist that others would be less committed to that.
I see they stood in 22 seats last time, with 1% of the vote.
In 2017 it was 3 and 0.2%, in 2015 it was 32 and 1.3%.
So the big question is how widely are they standing and can they better 1.3%.
I don't blame them. At the end of the day, he's too much of a turd even to grant his MPs a few more months in paid employment before the wipeout that his awful premiership has guaranteed.
I can't think of a single redeeming feature as a politician. Truss tried to turn things around. Sunk preferred to preside over the sinking ship with a sub-Cameron level sneering superiority.
I suspect the change of date is under US pressure so it doesn't conflict with their sorry Presidential election.
I wonder if there may be Black Swans ahead (there always are - ed.) chatting to a friend this weekend who is involved in corporate security, I asked if there was anywhere I shouldn't be planning a holiday apart from Taiwan ("absolutely not") - to my surprises, "Japan" was mentioned - which I suppose makes sense....
Why is that? (Genuinely asking for a friend)
If it goes tits up in Taiwan a lot of US military is there, so if the US is involved, Japan is involved, and Japan can build nukes in two seconds flat...
I don't blame them. At the end of the day, he's too much of a turd even to grant his MPs a few more months in paid employment before the wipeout that his awful premiership has guaranteed.
I can't think of a single redeeming feature as a politician. Truss tried to turn things around. Sunk preferred to preside over the sinking ship with a sub-Cameron level sneering superiority.
I suspect the change of date is under US pressure so it doesn't conflict with their sorry Presidential election.
Could have gone later if they wanted to avoid that, so I doubt it was the main reason, though it was probably factored in.
The fact it was literally the earliest an election could be whilst still the second half of the year as he promised suggests to me it was probably that they see no way to turn things around and no likely game changing events either.
So MPs can be mad, but it might save one or two of them.
Brilliant. Moema is on the London Assembly, Nargund is an Islington Councillor.
Both are decent - Moema is prominent in housing campaigns, particularly on private renters & post-Grenfell cladding issues. Nargund runs a chain of IVF clinics and campaigns on healthcare and skills & training.
Moema is more likely to be acceptable to Corbynites, Nargund is probably the better choice for someone capable of building a national profile.
I'm not sure I would favour the SDLP to hold Foyle over SF, in an election where a Brexit choice is off the table. In Belfast South, they have incumbency on their side, even though Alliance won most votes at Assembly level in 2022, so I think they will hold, but anyone could take it if SF field a candidate this time. I don't see what has changed in Belfast East where there are still a few thousand unionist votes for the DUP to squeeze. So I will struggle to put Alliance + SDLP at 4 as in the prediction below. One each is possible but I'd guess 3 in total.
@KateEMcCann Bumped into senior member of Team Sunak leaving Downing Street this eve. I asked why now? They said this July date has been a slow burn for the PM and better economic news coupled with a fear that public have stopped listening were deciding factors. The biggest though? "Things have started to go wrong... that's going to keep happening. You don't want to be sat there in Downing Street all summer while they do"
Is there something we don’t know?
Maybe bad news on Rwanda flights behind the scenes?
Their talk of Rwanda flights has gone a bit quiet in the last week…
I'm fairly sure that last week's high court ruling in Belfast scuppered the Rwanda flights for the foreseeable future.
At the very least, it opened the way for fresh legal challenges before the first flight takes off - and I suspect they realised that there was now a good chance that there wouldn't have been any flights before the next election, no matter when it was called.
Boat Crossings currently running at record levels for time of year, and on the graph they always shoot up from July onwards. They needed flights in the air same time as surge to limit the political fallout.
Other things than courts could be an issue - like knowing where the ones best suited to get through court appeals actually are? It looked like RAF flights, could a problem have emerged with that? Issues at the Rwanda end, who have seemed to be going lukewarm on it for sometime? Rwanda needed to consider Starmer seeking end to the arrangement from Day 1, based on that Rwanda still keen on proceeding?
Not just small boats. Aiui the official migration figures are due out tomorrow, something else that might have escaped Rishi's planning.
Interesting that the reaction of Tory MPs tonight is fatalistic about the result but fury at Sunak. They thought they had 5/6 months to get a job, to plan their lives. They think Sunak doesn't care about them with his millions and his US home. "Selfish" a word I've heard a lot
A great many pieces of vile self centred flotsam are about to be flushed.
For me, Victoria Atkins would be a loss to politics. She is a strong and effective Conservative politician, and this election campaign will show it.
As Health Secs go she hasn't been the worst. Caving in to the Doctors Strikes needed to be done, but she has even less charisma than Starmer. She is way out of her depth in government. Too ineffectual to do anything.
I'm not sure I would favour the SDLP to hold Foyle over SF, in an election where a Brexit choice is off the table. In Belfast South, they have incumbency on their side, even though Alliance won most votes at Assembly level in 2022, so I think they will hold, but anyone could take it if SF field a candidate this time. I don't see what has changed in Belfast East where there are still a few thousand unionist votes for the DUP to squeeze. So I will struggle to put Alliance + SDLP at 4 as in the prediction below. One each is possible but I'd guess 3 in total.
Belfast South is always tricky to predict - I'm a bit out of the loop, but I'd expect Claire Hanna to be fairly attractive to the sort of voter who might otherwise think of voting Alliance.
Has Naomi Long decided yet if she'll be standing again in Belfast East? If not, I'd have thought that Big Gav would be a dead cert, given his decisive(/ruthless) handling of the Jeffrey Donaldson situation.
I'm not sure I would favour the SDLP to hold Foyle over SF, in an election where a Brexit choice is off the table. In Belfast South, they have incumbency on their side, even though Alliance won most votes at Assembly level in 2022, so I think they will hold, but anyone could take it if SF field a candidate this time. I don't see what has changed in Belfast East where there are still a few thousand unionist votes for the DUP to squeeze. So I will struggle to put Alliance + SDLP at 4 as in the prediction below. One each is possible but I'd guess 3 in total.
Belfast South is always tricky to predict - I'm a bit out of the loop, but I'd expect Claire Hanna to be fairly attractive to the sort of voter who might otherwise think of voting Alliance.
Has Naomi Long decided yet if she'll be standing again in Belfast East? If not, I'd have thought that Big Gav would be a dead cert, given his decisive(/ruthless) handling of the Jeffrey Donaldson situation.
Last I saw, a couple of weeks ago, Long said she hadn’t yet decided.
Interesting that the reaction of Tory MPs tonight is fatalistic about the result but fury at Sunak. They thought they had 5/6 months to get a job, to plan their lives. They think Sunak doesn't care about them with his millions and his US home. "Selfish" a word I've heard a lot
A great many pieces of vile self centred flotsam are about to be flushed.
For me, Victoria Atkins would be a loss to politics. She is a strong and effective Conservative politician, and this election campaign will show it.
What? She is useless. She is the exact opposite of effective. Can you give an example of her being effective? Anything? And she is hopeless when being interviewed. I can think of many more Tory ministers who are more effective and we are selecting from a very poor bunch.
I don't blame them. At the end of the day, he's too much of a turd even to grant his MPs a few more months in paid employment before the wipeout that his awful premiership has guaranteed.
I can't think of a single redeeming feature as a politician. Truss tried to turn things around. Sunk preferred to preside over the sinking ship with a sub-Cameron level sneering superiority.
I suspect the change of date is under US pressure so it doesn't conflict with their sorry Presidential election.
Could have gone later if they wanted to avoid that, so I doubt it was the main reason, though it was probably factored in.
The fact it was literally the earliest an election could be whilst still the second half of the year as he promised suggests to me it was probably that they see no way to turn things around and no likely game changing events either.
So MPs can be mad, but it might save one or two of them.
It's the 30th May as a result of the Whitsun recess being cancelled, I think. There's a Business Statement scheduled for tomorrow, so I'd expect more to be known by then: https://whatson.parliament.uk/event/cal47759
I don't blame them. At the end of the day, he's too much of a turd even to grant his MPs a few more months in paid employment before the wipeout that his awful premiership has guaranteed.
I can't think of a single redeeming feature as a politician. Truss tried to turn things around. Sunk preferred to preside over the sinking ship with a sub-Cameron level sneering superiority.
I suspect the change of date is under US pressure so it doesn't conflict with their sorry Presidential election.
Could have gone later if they wanted to avoid that, so I doubt it was the main reason, though it was probably factored in.
The fact it was literally the earliest an election could be whilst still the second half of the year as he promised suggests to me it was probably that they see no way to turn things around and no likely game changing events either.
So MPs can be mad, but it might save one or two of them.
It won't.
So you think Sunak would have turned things around and improved the situation between now and, say, October?
I'm not sure I would favour the SDLP to hold Foyle over SF, in an election where a Brexit choice is off the table. In Belfast South, they have incumbency on their side, even though Alliance won most votes at Assembly level in 2022, so I think they will hold, but anyone could take it if SF field a candidate this time. I don't see what has changed in Belfast East where there are still a few thousand unionist votes for the DUP to squeeze. So I will struggle to put Alliance + SDLP at 4 as in the prediction below. One each is possible but I'd guess 3 in total.
Fair - I don’t know NI politics well, so was making a best guess based on what I vaguely recalled from the Assembly elections.
I give it 20 minutes from any announcement until a Labour fundraiser hits it.
To update:
18:10 the mail landed.
5.23 pm for my email from Ed Davey asking for money. 7.35 pm for my local party to ask for, well everything, by email.
At 12.56 I had an email from Surrey Heath LDs telling me Ed Davey was visiting there and to expect an announcement re the GE and 2 pm my local party Whatapped me to say the same thing.
I'm still livid I am going to be away for 10 days of the campaign on holiday.
Lots of Bills in progress - you would have thought they would need more than two days to get as many through as possible unless you can literally do each reading in a matter of minutes and vote not to bother with a committee stage?
Comments
The New Statesman
@NewStatesman
As MPs rage at the Prime Minister’s snap election announcement, it’s hard to imagine a less united party.
https://x.com/NewStatesman/status/1793350271696843163
18:10 the mail landed.
But too often the hypothetical scenario ignores why he was ousted in the first place. Why the leader at a landslide victory was then deemed such a liability just 3 years later when he should have been safe.
Like Boris or not, the very fact he was successfully ousted speaks against the idea that he would have been strong and dynamic enough to be doing vastly better now.
Making a lame joke acknowledging it was pissing it down is pretty basic stuff. That he pretended it wasn't happening was dreadful, but that's just him.
Lamb dopiaza, obviously.
Need you ask?
Other things than courts could be an issue - like knowing where the ones best suited to get through court appeals actually are? It looked like RAF flights, could a problem have emerged with that? Issues at the Rwanda end, who have seemed to be going lukewarm on it for sometime? Rwanda needed to consider Starmer seeking end to the arrangement from Day 1, based on that Rwanda still keen on proceeding?
Part of Sunak's cunning plan is that the date he has set allows him leeway, when addressing the gullible, to say 'Vote Tory to see the Rwanda thingy through, don't let Labour/leftie lawyers spoil it.'
And it is, while worthless rubbish, a piece of clear blue water in an election where there isn't much.
BTW my view that NoM is possible rests in part on Reform either being marginalised down to nothing much, or in fact doing a deal with the Tories as in 2019. This will get trashed if Farage announces he is taking over the reins of Reform.
"👀
Wow! Extraordinary but true - some furious Conservative MPs are tonight working on a plot to CALL OFF the general election by replacing Rishi Sunak as leader before Parliament is dissolved next Thursday.
One rebel Tory MP tells me he believes “several” more letters of no confidence in Sunak have been submitted to 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady.
The MP: “Today has clearly been an absolute disaster but the election is NOT irrevocable; up until the point of the Dissolution of Parliament - when the writs are moved to begin the contests, it can still be aborted.
“In other words, if enough Tory MPs, who are clearly going to lose their seats in this already utterly shambolic campaign, write to Sir Graham Brady, tomorrow , the election could still be revoked.”"
https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1793380451752800445
Once they get in, we'll never get them out, no matter how badly they lose an election, he said.
The irony was apparently lost on him.
Or has he really had enough of that life?
George Mann
@sgfmann
·
11m
The Northern Echo: For how long will he rain over us? #TomorrowsPapersToday
"We're so afraid of an election we will oust the PM to stop it happening! Please forget that in 6-8 months when we have to have an election anyway"
They couldn't claim it was just that they don't think he's a good PM, since that was true yesterday and they weren't ousting him then.
With the SDP.
One of the most horrific themes of the Brexit referendum was Anna Soubry.
Shortlist to be announced tomorrow, ballots going out the day after and the result to be announced on Saturday of next week.
A court or tribunal may not question—
(a)the exercise or purported exercise of the powers referred to in section 2 (revivial of prerogative powers to dissolve parliament and to call a new parliament),
(b)any decision or purported decision relating to those powers, or
(c)the limits or extent of those powers.
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2022/11/contents/enacted
Meanwhile, spare a thought for Cammo, six months’ luxury travel gone down the toilet. I doubt being shadow minister in the Lords really appeals.
Funny old world
With a total of 3295 votes in 2019 (across all constituencies) they may well do worse than Binface.
I don't think Tory backbenchers deposing him would cancel the election either
Brady will 'forget' to count again before prorogation if it gets close
Parliament is prorogued from Friday.
The times we live in. Actual Tory MPs seem to be plotting to put the King in an awful position.
If they want a big name, Wolmar would be a better choice, but I expect them to choose one of the local options - Praful Nargund would be the obvious choice if he's on the shortlist.
Interesting that the reaction of Tory MPs tonight is fatalistic about the result but fury at Sunak. They thought they had 5/6 months to get a job, to plan their lives. They think Sunak doesn't care about them with his millions and his US home. "Selfish" a word I've heard a lot
Make your mind up time Starmer.
Friends saw King at ROH last week - not looking that great.....
https://x.com/lornaslater/status/1793333480492876080
Some candidates in there (NSFW)
I can't think of a single redeeming feature as a politician. Truss tried to turn things around. Sunk preferred to preside over the sinking ship with a sub-Cameron level sneering superiority.
I suspect the change of date is under US pressure so it doesn't conflict with their sorry Presidential election.
Praful Nargund
Sem Moema
https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1793378252154913030
Journalist (he, him). Standing for selection as Labour's candidate for Islington North
https://x.com/paulmasonnews
...
Every vote for the @scottishgreens on July 4th will be a vote to put people and planet before profit.
Any slogan which no one could disagree with is meaningless. That one is pretty close, but in fairness I think we get the gist that others would be less committed to that.
I see they stood in 22 seats last time, with 1% of the vote.
In 2017 it was 3 and 0.2%, in 2015 it was 32 and 1.3%.
So the big question is how widely are they standing and can they better 1.3%.
The damned at the gates of hell or summat.
Swanning around, showing off such designs, also serves a purpose.
The fact it was literally the earliest an election could be whilst still the second half of the year as he promised suggests to me it was probably that they see no way to turn things around and no likely game changing events either.
So MPs can be mad, but it might save one or two of them.
Both are decent - Moema is prominent in housing campaigns, particularly on private renters & post-Grenfell cladding issues. Nargund runs a chain of IVF clinics and campaigns on healthcare and skills & training.
Moema is more likely to be acceptable to Corbynites, Nargund is probably the better choice for someone capable of building a national profile.
NOT a great start.
OK, maybe not that, but while Starmer is no Blair, Sunak is no Major. I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories poll worse than 1997.
Has Naomi Long decided yet if she'll be standing again in Belfast East? If not, I'd have thought that Big Gav would be a dead cert, given his decisive(/ruthless) handling of the Jeffrey Donaldson situation.
At least two posts on here have claimed it's this Friday.
But Institute of Government says 30 May.
Presumably Institute of Government is correct?
https://x.com/jack_pannnell/status/1793317127673221380
Prorogue is 24th (Friday).
Do they have until 24th or 30th?
Dissolution a week tomorrow.
At 12.56 I had an email from Surrey Heath LDs telling me Ed Davey was visiting there and to expect an announcement re the GE and 2 pm my local party Whatapped me to say the same thing.
I'm still livid I am going to be away for 10 days of the campaign on holiday.
Lots of Bills in progress - you would have thought they would need more than two days to get as many through as possible unless you can literally do each reading in a matter of minutes and vote not to bother with a committee stage?