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Will a 4th of July election be Sunak’s siege of Yorktown? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,609
edited June 2024 in General
imageWill a 4th of July election be Sunak’s siege of Yorktown? – politicalbetting.com

A general election when Scots have summer holidays booked? Nice one, aye.

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,107
    First?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    Second like the Tories on 4th July
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,408
    "Why does it always rain on me?"
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,632
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    First?

    Stewards’ enquiry!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,627
    GIN1138 said:

    Second like the Tories on 4th July

    Bold prediction!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,437
    https://x.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1793315231147405811
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,700
    So, on to Excel now and being photographed on front of Mickey Mouse?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,107
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    That was shit wasn't it.

    If Sunak wants to win a landslide he should put Steve Bray on a flight to Rwanda.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,776
    Gosh. He's terrible at this.

    SKS may be no good at TV, but he only has to be better than that.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,267
    GIN1138 said:

    Second like the Tories on 4th July

    I can only assume you're talking votes not seats...
  • twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,641
    He clearly knows the game is up and he's California dreaming.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,352
    HIGNFY is going to have a field day with that speech
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    That was shit wasn't it.

    Disastrous
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,550
    So, now we get to see just how popular Starmer is.


    Surprisingly unpopular.
  • Smart51Smart51 Posts: 80
    GIN1138 said:

    Second like the Tories on 4th July

    Or 3rd. I'm still holding out for the Lib Dems beating the Tories 52 - 48 MPs.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,437
    @Survation
    NEW: Our first take on the General Election ahead.

    21 Point Labour Lead, highest since November 2022.

    LAB 48 (+4)
    CON 27 (+3)
    LD 8 (-2)
    GRN 2 (-5)
    RFM 8 (-)
    SNP 3 (+1)
    OTH 4 (-1)

    F/w 21st - 22nd May. Changes vs. 10th May 2024.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,691
    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    He clearly knows the game is up and he's California dreaming.

    I turn my collar to the cold and rain...
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,668
    GIN1138 said:

    Second like the Tories on 4th July

    Or third. The Tories are terrified of a Lib Dem advance, but this is a fiasco of industrial proportions. They don't deserve defeat, they deserve obliteration.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,082
    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    He clearly knows the game is up and he's California dreaming.

    Let’s go to San Francisco.
  • twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,641
    Brian Cox must be happy.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,593
    mwadams said:

    Gosh. He's terrible at this.

    SKS may be no good at TV, but he only has to be better than that.

    The tiger merely needs to stroll
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,983
    Chameleon said:

    Between the weather on his suit and Things Can Only Get Better that was the most tragic speech I've ever seen.

    Never Mind. I'm sure the weather is nicer in California.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    That was shit wasn't it.

    If Sunak wants to win a landslide he should put Steve Bray on a flight to Rwanda.
    Hey go the whole way. Put everyone who doesn’t vote tory on flights out of the country. That’ll be a landslide.

    Although with Sunak he might even mess that up.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,679
    Question. Will the SNP campaign slogan be Independence Day related.

    Go on John. You know you want to. Make it a referendum on independence.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,527
    That was hilarious, but might be worth a few pity votes to poor Rishi...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,427
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    That was shit wasn't it.

    Things can only get better!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,791
    edited May 2024
    Chameleon said:

    Between the weather on his suit and Things Can Only Get Better that was the most tragic speech I've ever seen.

    It was. Desperately bad. Steve Bray should be hurled into the Channel but that was still awful

    His delivery is so bad, and wooden, it's weird. Ah well, he will be gone soon enough
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,082
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    That was shit wasn't it.

    If Sunak wants to win a landslide he should put Steve Bray on a flight to Rwanda.
    Never voted Tory in my life but that would seal the deal for me.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,172
    NEW: Our first take on the General Election ahead.

    21 Point Labour Lead, highest since November 2022.

    LAB 48 (+4)
    CON 27 (+3)
    LD 8 (-2)
    GRN 2 (-5)
    RFM 8 (-)
    SNP 3 (+1)
    OTH 4 (-1)

    F/w 21st - 22nd May. Changes vs. 10th May 2024.

    Survation.........
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,523
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    That was shit wasn't it.

    If Sunak wants to win a landslide he should put Steve Bray on a flight to Rwanda.
    That should have been on Labour's pledge card...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,731
    John Curtice on BBC News Channel.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,759
    Things can only get wetter
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,437
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    That was shit wasn't it.

    He was drowning, not waving...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,103
    CatMan said:

    HIGNFY is going to have a field day with that speech

    Will HIGNFY be dropped for the campaign?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,679
    Why oh why oh why did they announce it now. Here. Outside?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,267
    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Between the weather on his suit and Things Can Only Get Better that was the most tragic speech I've ever seen.

    It was. Desperately bad. Steve Bray should be hurled into the Channel but that was still awful

    His delivery is so bad, and wooden, it's weird. Ah well, he will be gone soon enough
    Like a supply teacher who's given up hope of controlling the class. Hard words without conviction.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    wooliedyed said:

    NEW: Our first take on the General Election ahead.

    21 Point Labour Lead, highest since November 2022.

    LAB 48 (+4)
    CON 27 (+3)
    LD 8 (-2)
    GRN 2 (-5)
    RFM 8 (-)
    SNP 3 (+1)
    OTH 4 (-1)

    F/w 21st - 22nd May. Changes vs. 10th May 2024.

    Survation.........

    Opening polling salvo for the 2024 UK general election...
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,756
    He will lose.

    I suspect he won’t lose quite as badly as some will predict. But lose he will.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,437
    @lewis_goodall
    I cannot think of a less auspicious start to a general election campaign for any prime minister.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,691
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Why oh why oh why did they announce it now. Here. Outside?

    Because he has the political nous of a stuffed hedgehog.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Why the hell didn’t he wear a coat or have someone with an umbrella?

    Wtf?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,679
    @TSE surely Dave was promised a longer run as Foreign Secretary than he's had?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,759
    wooliedyed said:

    NEW: Our first take on the General Election ahead.

    21 Point Labour Lead, highest since November 2022.

    LAB 48 (+4)
    CON 27 (+3)
    LD 8 (-2)
    GRN 2 (-5)
    RFM 8 (-)
    SNP 3 (+1)
    OTH 4 (-1)

    F/w 21st - 22nd May. Changes vs. 10th May 2024.

    Survation.........

    Green -5%, wow

    That's actually LLG-2
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,791
    I really hope the election is not going to dominated by Steve fucking Bray drowning out every flipping interview with his megaphone and his amplifier. Someone lock him in a tiny room, how can we let a sole and tragic lunatic like him warp our politics; it is RIDIC
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,091
    Wonderful.

    image
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    What a shit speech from Sunak. Labour's gonna win a super majority, and is going to use it to govern like Tories anyway. It's all extremely depressing...
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,719
    TimS said:

    Things can only get wetter

    You win today.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,731
    Heathener said:

    Why the hell didn’t he wear a coat or have someone with an umbrella?

    Wtf?

    He probably thought the optics of someone holding an umbrella next to him would be bad for some reason.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,408
    On topic:


  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,107
    RochdalePioneers said:

    @TSE surely Dave was promised a longer run as Foreign Secretary than he's had?

    Starmer will keep Cameron on as Foreign Secretary, he's that good.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Heathener said:

    Why the hell didn’t he wear a coat or have someone with an umbrella?

    Wtf?

    It could have been fairly iconic if he’d come out holding his own umbrella but to do it like that made no sense at all.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 5,174
    ydoethur said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Why oh why oh why did they announce it now. Here. Outside?

    Because he has the political nous of a stuffed hedgehog.
    He's all washed up.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,267
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GOMjDCZW8AA7Pb9?format=jpg&name=small

    No-one will vote for that.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Leon said:

    I really hope the election is not going to dominated by Steve fucking Bray

    Do I detect a new Leon obsession?

    That’ll be fun for us over the next 6 weeks :neutral:
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,103
    OK so I was wrong about January, but only wrong once. As it happens, I'm about £25 green largely through opposing October and November.

    As said on the BBC, many Conservative MPs are gobsmacked (and hence the talk of leadership challenges) because effectively what Rishi has done is bring forward their redundancies by six months.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,437
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    TimS said:

    Things can only get wetter

    You win today.
    It was posted on the previous thread
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,387
    Heathener said:

    Why the hell didn’t he wear a coat or have someone with an umbrella?

    Wtf?

    I'd have thought the PM could even have secured a late-notice room booking somewhere in the Westminster/Whitehall area.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Scott_xP said:

    https://x.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1793315231147405811

    A surprisingly good ad
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,352
    edited May 2024
    Chameleon said:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GOMjDCZW8AA7Pb9?format=jpg&name=small

    No-one will vote for that.

    New Private Eye just came out. This always happens to them. Maybe they can save that pic for the next issue.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 5,174
    williamglenn said:

    Heathener said:

    Why the hell didn’t he wear a coat or have someone with an umbrella?

    Wtf?

    It could have been fairly iconic if he’d come out holding his own umbrella but to do it like that made no sense at all.
    Perhaps someone handed him a rainbow umbrella and he decided to ditch it?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,185
    Turns out we didn't want a boring technocrat after Boris after all.

    The worst thing about this is that it has forever curtailed the prospect of billionaire public schoolboys becoming PM for a generation at least.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,759
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    I really hope the election is not going to dominated by Steve fucking Bray

    Do I detect a new Leon obsession?

    That’ll be fun for us over the next 6 weeks :neutral:
    Steve Bray is very annoying though.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,700
    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    Why the hell didn’t he wear a coat or have someone with an umbrella?

    Wtf?

    He probably thought the optics of someone holding an umbrella next to him would be bad for some reason.
    The wally without a brolly.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,791
    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Between the weather on his suit and Things Can Only Get Better that was the most tragic speech I've ever seen.

    It was. Desperately bad. Steve Bray should be hurled into the Channel but that was still awful

    His delivery is so bad, and wooden, it's weird. Ah well, he will be gone soon enough
    Like a supply teacher who's given up hope of controlling the class. Hard words without conviction.
    Very good analogy! Indeed perfect

    Thats exactly what he sounds like. A weak teacher defeated by an unruly class that knows it has the teacher on the run

    We had one of those at my secondary school. My Polyblank. That was his name. Taught music, or, rather, tried to teach music even as the entire class ran riot every lesson, he would stand there mouthing pointless firm words which made everyone laugh

    Very sad. And that is Sunak, you are bang on
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,817
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Heathener said:

    Why the hell didn’t he wear a coat or have someone with an umbrella?

    Wtf?

    I'd have thought the PM could even have secured a late-notice room booking somewhere in the Westminster/Whitehall area.
    Didn't they spend a load of money on an expensive indoor Number 10 press room? Would have been perfect surely...
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,719
    Scott_xP said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    TimS said:

    Things can only get wetter

    You win today.
    It was posted on the previous thread
    Did Leon come up with it first?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,776
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Heathener said:

    Why the hell didn’t he wear a coat or have someone with an umbrella?

    Wtf?

    I'd have thought the PM could even have secured a late-notice room booking somewhere in the Westminster/Whitehall area.
    I hear Westminster Total Landscaping was free.
  • Jim_the_LurkerJim_the_Lurker Posts: 209
    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Between the weather on his suit and Things Can Only Get Better that was the most tragic speech I've ever seen.

    It was. Desperately bad. Steve Bray should be hurled into the Channel but that was still awful

    His delivery is so bad, and wooden, it's weird. Ah well, he will be gone soon enough
    Like a supply teacher who's given up hope of controlling the class. Hard words without conviction.
    Great observation. It stank of supply teacher - too long and too flat no one is listening. Good few digs at the leader of the opposition at the end but he buried the good stats (the few that he has) and confused me with the reference to furlough payments at the start. If a listener has to think “what are you going on about” you are doing it wrong.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,527
    "Voters
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Why oh why oh why did they announce it now. Here. Outside?

    All the "you don't know what you'll get with Labour" stuff was rather let down by his own failure to look at a short-term weather forecast...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,593
    Did I miss the bit where he says “that’s why I am calling an election for 5th July?” If he said it, my mind must have wandered, since suddenly he seemed to be talking about an election he hadn’t actually called.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,185
    AFAICS the only Lab policy we are aware of that you can drop on your foot is the VAT on school fees.

    Not that it will matter, people are sick of the Cons and they will duly be booted out on July 4th. But Lab will have at least to do a smidge of thinking about how they plan to run the country. For all its farce they might be vulnerable on Rwanda. They don't want a "come all ye" narrative to take hold. Which the Cons will try to ensure.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    Con leadership election through July and August with new leader announced at party conference in September?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,756
    edited May 2024
    Scott_xP said:

    @lewis_goodall
    I cannot think of a less auspicious start to a general election campaign for any prime minister.

    Brown did a speech in front of his cabinet then went off to get on a train to ostensibly campaign somewhere, I think.

    Even Gordon Brown managed to make a GE announcement look quite good. When Sunak can’t meet the dizzying heights of Gordon Brown you know you have a problem.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,107
    I still have man-flu.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,593
    Where’s that woman from Bristol - someone must be making their way to her doorstep, surely?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,909
    ClippP said:

    Chameleon said:

    Between the weather on his suit and Things Can Only Get Better that was the most tragic speech I've ever seen.

    Never Mind. I'm sure the weather is nicer in California.
    The sun is shining here in sunny Sunderland !
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,082
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    @TSE surely Dave was promised a longer run as Foreign Secretary than he's had?

    Starmer will keep Cameron on as Foreign Secretary, he's that good.
    Surely Cameron will allow starmer to be PM, he’s that influential.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,929
    GIN1138 said:

    wooliedyed said:

    NEW: Our first take on the General Election ahead.

    21 Point Labour Lead, highest since November 2022.

    LAB 48 (+4)
    CON 27 (+3)
    LD 8 (-2)
    GRN 2 (-5)
    RFM 8 (-)
    SNP 3 (+1)
    OTH 4 (-1)

    F/w 21st - 22nd May. Changes vs. 10th May 2024.

    Survation.........

    Opening polling salvo for the 2024 UK general election...
    Not really. Only now will they start asking people how they intend to vote on 4 July
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,408
    TimS said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    I really hope the election is not going to dominated by Steve fucking Bray

    Do I detect a new Leon obsession?

    That’ll be fun for us over the next 6 weeks :neutral:
    Steve Bray is very annoying though.
    "STOP BRAY-XIT!"
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,082
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    I really hope the election is not going to dominated by Steve fucking Bray

    Do I detect a new Leon obsession?

    That’ll be fun for us over the next 6 weeks :neutral:
    The only Leon obsession I detect is yours.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,107
    IanB2 said:

    Did I miss the bit where he says “that’s why I am calling an election for 5th July?” If he said it, my mind must have wandered, since suddenly he seemed to be talking about an election he hadn’t actually called.

    He mentioned that he spoken to King Charles III about a dissolution which had been granted.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,691
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Heathener said:

    Why the hell didn’t he wear a coat or have someone with an umbrella?

    Wtf?

    I'd have thought the PM could even have secured a late-notice room booking somewhere in the Westminster/Whitehall area.
    He could just have asked Sir Lindsay nicely for a slot in the Commons.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,550
    Scott_xP said:

    @Survation
    NEW: Our first take on the General Election ahead.

    21 Point Labour Lead, highest since November 2022.

    LAB 48 (+4)
    CON 27 (+3)
    LD 8 (-2)
    GRN 2 (-5)
    RFM 8 (-)
    SNP 3 (+1)
    OTH 4 (-1)

    F/w 21st - 22nd May. Changes vs. 10th May 2024.

    July 4th: both Labour and the Conservatives poll in the 30's.

    Then the fun begins....
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,822
    Lennon said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Heathener said:

    Why the hell didn’t he wear a coat or have someone with an umbrella?

    Wtf?

    I'd have thought the PM could even have secured a late-notice room booking somewhere in the Westminster/Whitehall area.
    Didn't they spend a load of money on an expensive indoor Number 10 press room? Would have been perfect surely...
    I wonder if he wants to try and run a John Major campaign, taking on the hecklers, and he wanted to signal that.

    The issue being that he is not 1992 vintage John Major.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,216
    A wet D.ream for Labour.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    I’m shocked . Never saw this coming .

    And Raynergate still hasn’t been resolved . The Manchester police need to make a decision ASAP.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,691
    IanB2 said:

    Did I miss the bit where he says “that’s why I am calling an election for 5th July?” If he said it, my mind must have wandered, since suddenly he seemed to be talking about an election he hadn’t actually called.

    He hasn't called an election for the 5th July. So no, you didn't miss it.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,739
    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Between the weather on his suit and Things Can Only Get Better that was the most tragic speech I've ever seen.

    It was. Desperately bad. Steve Bray should be hurled into the Channel but that was still awful

    His delivery is so bad, and wooden, it's weird. Ah well, he will be gone soon enough
    Like a supply teacher who's given up hope of controlling the class. Hard words without conviction.
    Very good analogy! Indeed perfect

    Thats exactly what he sounds like. A weak teacher defeated by an unruly class that knows it has the teacher on the run

    We had one of those at my secondary school. My Polyblank. That was his name. Taught music, or, rather, tried to teach music even as the entire class ran riot every lesson, he would stand there mouthing pointless firm words which made everyone laugh

    Very sad. And that is Sunak, you are bang on
    Polyblank? Really?
    I always have a faint admiration for people who have gone into teaching despite having an absurd name.
    Is it Cornish, I wonder?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,107
    Taz said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    I really hope the election is not going to dominated by Steve fucking Bray

    Do I detect a new Leon obsession?

    That’ll be fun for us over the next 6 weeks :neutral:
    The only Leon obsession I detect is yours.
    The thing is Steve Bray will do the same if Starmer becomes PM and it will be equally annoying.

    I want to hear the Prime Minister not the opinions of Steve Bray.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,776
    IanB2 said:

    Did I miss the bit where he says “that’s why I am calling an election for 5th July?” If he said it, my mind must have wandered, since suddenly he seemed to be talking about an election he hadn’t actually called.

    My favourite part was the opening. In which the underlying assumption was that we all knew what he was talking about, having memorized the course of his star spangled career. Which we didn't. Then it turned out it was the Furlough Scheme.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,822
    Or is this evening the evening that the Sun publishes a picture of Starmer ##### with a ##### in the #####, wearing a ##### and it was all planned ahead?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,791
    The MASSIVE excitement has already ebbed



  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,107
    Thoughts and prayers for all those winnable constituencies that don't have a candidate selected.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,731
    The only place the Tories might gain seats is north-east Scotland, from the SNP.
This discussion has been closed.

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