Anything that keeps Sunak in place is good for Labour . The last thing they want is Penny coming in .
Because failing to get through the Tory leadership contests and not being entrusted with a Senior Cabinet position since 2019 (Leader of the House is basically to do procedural stuff for real Cabinet Ministers) means she is an electoral powerhouse for the party?
Senior Labour sources quoted as saying Khan will be re-elected “definitely, no question” on Newsnight.
They don't know that either!
They’re as bad as the rest. Unless they have data proving that there was some decent amount of tactical voting then they should muzzle it and let the votes be counted .
Senior Labour sources quoted as saying Khan will be re-elected “definitely, no question” on Newsnight.
Where did the notion that Khan was going to lose actually come from? I saw few tweets on here by people with six followers. Were there any more robust sources?
Anything that keeps Sunak in place is good for Labour . The last thing they want is Penny coming in .
I honestly don’t think it would make a difference. No one is listening to the Tories now, and having yet another replaced PM would make them an even bigger laughing stock.
Woking is now a Tory free zone. I lived there for many years from the age of 9 and it was always solid Tory. The idea that there is not a single one left is bewildering.
Woking by name...
I always thought Woking was a diminutive of Wokingham, but apparently they are 2 different places!
Woking is in Surrey, not too far from London, Wokingham is in Berkshire, close to Reading.
No rail enthusiast would ever confuse the two! Nor would anyone interested in the history of cremation.
Another thing Woking is known for is having a large population of Sicilian descent.
But only 5 councils left to announce so Conservative losses unlikely to hit 500. Lib Dems have now significantly outperformed and Greens have had a stellar set of results.
But it’s Tice with his 2 seats doing the media interview rounds.
This is a similar pattern to last year. Good result for Lib Dems and Greens, decent for Labour and awful for Conservatives.
LE24 results for Spen Valley constituency (changes wrt LE23):
Con 35.1% (-1.3) Lab 31.6 (-5.0) LD 16.3 (-1.6) Green 7.8 (+0.6) Oth 9.2 (+7.3)
Here an Independent gain from Labour in the one Muslim heavy ward is decisive. Labour drop 822 votes in the ward and Conservatives gain a plurality of 792 across the constituency, even though other wards tightened.
A GE will have different dynamics, but Labour's job in Spen Valley looks a little harder today.
The vast majority of the public wouldn’t have seen that . She looks good , her hair is great and she looks like she can carry a tin of beans without needing a trolley . Sunak is a drag on the Tories , his height isn’t the issue , he just looks like a wimp and his over the top attempts to smile and look bubbly are grating . Starmer at least looks like he could put up shelves and has great hair.
Woking is now a Tory free zone. I lived there for many years from the age of 9 and it was always solid Tory. The idea that there is not a single one left is bewildering.
Woking by name...
I always thought Woking was a diminutive of Wokingham, but apparently they are 2 different places!
Woking is in Surrey, not too far from London, Wokingham is in Berkshire, close to Reading.
No rail enthusiast would ever confuse the two! Nor would anyone interested in the history of cremation.
Another thing Woking is known for is having a large population of Sicilian descent.
Ooh, a fellow pyrophile! But can you name the second crematorium?
Actually I'm not THAT interested in crematoria. But due to a strange set of circumstances a decade or so back I do know more than most people about the industry.
These projections from BBC and Sky are pretty weird, not matching up with the opinion polls at all. 😕
They never do. Mostly because a lot of the minor parties will have their vote squeezed back to one of the big two for the general.
Based on history, a 9% PNV lead for Labour is probably high teens in GE polling. Lower than some polls, but not crazily so.
This is known which is why that Sky News projection was GIGO.
Problem is neither the opinion polls nor the TV projections seem like plausible real-world outcomes. I don't believe the polls that say Labour will win a 200 seat majority, and I don't think they'll be 30 seats short either as things stand. It's going to be somewhere in the middle.
These projections from BBC and Sky are pretty weird, not matching up with the opinion polls at all. 😕
The LDs are much higher than their opinion poll rating in the Locals voteshare, mainly at Labour expense and Reform much lower than their opinion poll rating in the Locals voteshare, mainly to the Tories' benefit, explains it.
So if some voters who are fed up of the Tories but wary of a big Labour majority go LD and Sunak squeezes Reform it could yet be a close general election, albeit with Labour still likely ahead
Woking is now a Tory free zone. I lived there for many years from the age of 9 and it was always solid Tory. The idea that there is not a single one left is bewildering.
Woking by name...
I always thought Woking was a diminutive of Wokingham, but apparently they are 2 different places!
Woking is in Surrey, not too far from London, Wokingham is in Berkshire, close to Reading.
No rail enthusiast would ever confuse the two! Nor would anyone interested in the history of cremation.
Another thing Woking is known for is having a large population of Sicilian descent.
Ooh, a fellow pyrophile! But can you name the second crematorium?
Actually I'm not THAT interested in crematoria. But due to a strange set of circumstances a decade or so back I do know more than most people about the industry.
Woking is now a Tory free zone. I lived there for many years from the age of 9 and it was always solid Tory. The idea that there is not a single one left is bewildering.
Woking by name...
I always thought Woking was a diminutive of Wokingham, but apparently they are 2 different places!
Woking is in Surrey, not too far from London, Wokingham is in Berkshire, close to Reading.
No rail enthusiast would ever confuse the two! Nor would anyone interested in the history of cremation.
Another thing Woking is known for is having a large population of Sicilian descent.
Surrey is different from Berkshire?
Surrey has the Dorks, and Berkshire has the Berks.
But more importantly, they are both South of Watford.
gabyhinsliff @gabyhinsliff · 11m The correlation between ‘going slightly mad reading London turnout data’ and ‘having been up half the night’ feels quite strong on election Twitter
Senior Labour sources quoted as saying Khan will be re-elected “definitely, no question” on Newsnight.
Where did the notion that Khan was going to lose actually come from? I saw few tweets on here by people with six followers. Were there any more robust sources?
Woking is now a Tory free zone. I lived there for many years from the age of 9 and it was always solid Tory. The idea that there is not a single one left is bewildering.
Woking by name...
I always thought Woking was a diminutive of Wokingham, but apparently they are 2 different places!
Woking is in Surrey, not too far from London, Wokingham is in Berkshire, close to Reading.
No rail enthusiast would ever confuse the two! Nor would anyone interested in the history of cremation.
Another thing Woking is known for is having a large population of Sicilian descent.
Surrey is different from Berkshire?
Surrey has the Dorks, and Berkshire has the Berks.
But more importantly, they are both South of Watford.
Which one, the gap near Daventry or the London suburb? Key distinction.
Woking is now a Tory free zone. I lived there for many years from the age of 9 and it was always solid Tory. The idea that there is not a single one left is bewildering.
Woking by name...
I always thought Woking was a diminutive of Wokingham, but apparently they are 2 different places!
Woking is in Surrey, not too far from London, Wokingham is in Berkshire, close to Reading.
No rail enthusiast would ever confuse the two! Nor would anyone interested in the history of cremation.
Another thing Woking is known for is having a large population of Sicilian descent.
Ooh, a fellow pyrophile! But can you name the second crematorium?
Actually I'm not THAT interested in crematoria. But due to a strange set of circumstances a decade or so back I do know more than most people about the industry.
Was it the one in Golders Green?
Good effort. But I think it was Manchester. Some posters may be unsurprused about me sharing this nugget.
Senior Labour sources quoted as saying Khan will be re-elected “definitely, no question” on Newsnight.
Where did the notion that Khan was going to lose actually come from? I saw few tweets on here by people with six followers. Were there any more robust sources?
These projections from BBC and Sky are pretty weird, not matching up with the opinion polls at all. 😕
The LDs are much higher than their opinion poll rating in the Locals voteshare, mainly at Labour expense and Reform much lower than their opinion poll rating in the Locals voteshare, mainly to the Tories' benefit, explains it.
So if some voters who are fed up of the Tories but wary of a big Labour majority go LD and Sunak squeezes Reform it could yet be a close general election, albeit with Labour still likely ahead
Yeah, it’s not going to be a close election. It might be a touch closer than the wilder opinion polls but the Government is still in for a tonking.
A shockingly bad day for Labour. It was obvious from the outset that Starmer's abysmal performance as Prime Minister would drag the party down. On that note, I'm off to bed, whisky having been consumed.
If Sadiq Khan has lost to Susan Hall, expect claims for coffee damaged laptops.
John Gray of the New Statesman was in NYC on the day after Trump won in 2016 and reported seeing people walking around in a daze, unable to process what had happened. The same thing could happen in Islington tomorrow if Hall wins.
Woking is now a Tory free zone. I lived there for many years from the age of 9 and it was always solid Tory. The idea that there is not a single one left is bewildering.
Woking by name...
I always thought Woking was a diminutive of Wokingham, but apparently they are 2 different places!
Woking is in Surrey, not too far from London, Wokingham is in Berkshire, close to Reading.
No rail enthusiast would ever confuse the two! Nor would anyone interested in the history of cremation.
Another thing Woking is known for is having a large population of Sicilian descent.
Surrey is different from Berkshire?
Surrey has the Dorks, and Berkshire has the Berks.
But more importantly, they are both South of Watford.
They are very different. You wouldn't get Leith Hill or Box Hill in Berkshire, nor the Devil's Punch Bowl or the amazing Frensham Great Pond. And I can't think of anywhere Readingy in Surrey.
A shockingly bad day for Labour. It was obvious from the outset that Starmer's abysmal performance as Prime Minister would drag the party down. On that note, I'm off to bed, whisky having been consumed.
Zero gains in Scotland either, which will be crucial in the GE.
If Sir Ed Davey manages to get NOM I’ll be very pleased.
Oh SKS is shite SED slightly less shite and a good LE2024 for him
I genuinely thought SED was a reference to the Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands. I thought it was a bit strange, but "Sir Ed Davey" obviously hasn't really registered in my consciousness.
Yes as I have been saying since "Israel has that right" to cut off food and water.
SKS fans been in denial.
Last time Corbyn fought these seat he got 1121 seats.
SKS 20+ points ahead in the polls falling short of Labour's worst ever leader.
Sir Keir’s refusal to retract his approval for Israel having the right to cut off food and water, followed by this week’s faux outrage at the charge that he did actually say what he said, and didn’t correct it when offered the chance, was his lowest moment yet. Truly a snake
Trump Assistant (and later White House Comms Director) Hope Hicks testifying in NY Court about Trump giving instructions wrt payments to women he had sex / affairs with.
Senior Labour sources quoted as saying Khan will be re-elected “definitely, no question” on Newsnight.
Where did the notion that Khan was going to lose actually come from? I saw few tweets on here by people with six followers. Were there any more robust sources?
I have gone back to have a look. 🔍
This one from electionmaps kicked it off https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1786140409539792975?s=46 The next post of note Scottnpaste “CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told. As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”. *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.” Everyone is making a joke of it and don’t believe a word of it in a great many of following posts. The next thing of note, still May 2nd is Anabob pointing out to us “Hall into 13.5 on BX” A little later Foxy posts this Another CCHQ source gets in touch to dispute any claim that they are “chipper”. They are also much more cautious about the London mayoral result. https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1786150982579065118?t=qmpusT9V8nSTr40iCCp7Xg&s= And Andy posts this Is this spin? "George Eaton @georgeeaton Labour aide says they expect London to be “very, very close”. I looked at how Sadiq Khan could lose back in March." https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1786150540222562815
.still no one getting upset or over excited and Anabob posts Anabobazina said: Hall sliding back out towards 17 now.
Quite a while later Andy accuses Pete of making Hall’s win sound like foregone conclusion, and everyone’s getting bit overheated. MJW talks about the re-emergence of the “ Johnson Doughnut” At 12:01 I post “I’m taking the opposite line to you MexPete! I’m saying neither she has definitely won, nor would it be a seismic event.”
Everyone then seems to be very rude to one another. So just normal PB. At 12:17 I’m ordered buy Anabob to “put up or shut up” and I reply “She’s not going to win. It was a mischievous rumour. Trump Hall sums her up - 2 PMQ questions and the Guardian report yesterday about her dealings with vile WhatsApps needs to wake everyone up, Tory as well as Labour. Khans winning margin could be in single figures, if both camps hyping it like this, but likely teens we both agree?”
If we wins a third term as London Mayor, what are his prospects for winning a fourth term?
(My take is that afaics the evidence is now coming through strongly to support the success of his policies eg emissions reductions, so the Susan Hall type lobby will wither on the vine if he wins this term.)
Have the 4 new councillors from the Independent Oxford Alliance who took seats from Labour said they were socialists? For that matter, have the two Greens or Independent candidate Mohammed Azad?
Have the 4 new councillors from the Independent Oxford Alliance who took seats from Labour said they were socialists? For that matter, have the two Greens or Independent candidate Mohammed Azad?
Spot on. The IOA are certainly not socialists, they’re closer to Reform than anything. The Greens possibly might be!
Lib Dems have control of Tunbridge Wells, and the Conservatives are wiped out in Cheltenham.
Yes the spa towns aren't looking good for the Tories and heading yellow (though the Conservatives held most of the rural wards around Tunbridge Wells with a smattering of Independents even if they lost the town itself)
If we wins a third term as London Mayor, what are his prospects for winning a fourth term?
(My take is that afaics the evidence is now coming through strongly to support the success of his policies eg emissions reductions, so the Susan Hall type lobby will wither on the vine if he wins this term.)
As a floating voter I don't like anyone doing four terms in such a leadership role. Just feels stale, wrong and open to laziness and potential corruption.
Well, I expected to go through Kirklees (before branching out elsewhere) looking at the state of Lab-Con marginals.
But I'm going to start with the safe Labour seats that I expected to ignore.
Changes are on the 2023 local round.
LE results for Huddersfield constituency (2024 boundaries):
Labour: 33.8% (-11.7) Green 31.9 (+10.5) Con 15.6 (-3.1) LD 12.8 (-0.4) Others 6.0 (+4.9)
There is a green base anyway, but serious pro green swings in 2 wards brought Green to near parity. They gained one ward to hold two, and lost to Labour by 1% in a ward where another independent split the pro-Palestine vote, accounting for 3.6% of the constituency vote alone and also preventing a Green plurality.
Can they establish themselves as contenders at parliamentary level?
Well, I expected to go through Kirklees (before branching out elsewhere) looking at the state of Lab-Con marginals.
But I'm going to start with the safe Labour seats that I expected to ignore.
Changes are on the 2023 local round.
LE results for Huddersfield constituency (2024 boundaries):
Labour: 33.8% (-11.7) Green 31.9 (+10.5) Con 15.6 (-3.1) LD 12.8 (-0.4) Others 6.0 (+4.9)
There is a green base anyway, but serious pro green swings in 2 wards brought Green to near parity. They gained one ward to hold two, and lost to Labour by 1% in a ward where another independent split the pro-Palestine vote, accounting for 3.6% of the constituency vote alone and also preventing a Green plurality.
Can they establish themselves as contenders at parliamentary level?
If Sir Ed Davey manages to get NOM I’ll be very pleased.
Oh SKS is shite SED slightly less shite and a good LE2024 for him
I genuinely thought SED was a reference to the Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands. I thought it was a bit strange, but "Sir Ed Davey" obviously hasn't really registered in my consciousness.
Same here, apart from the German thing. Until it was spelled out in a later post, I could not work out who was meant by SED. Now, the LibDems have gained a hatful of councillors so perhaps it does not matter, especially if they can regain third party status in the next House of Commons, but surely the party establishment must be looking around for its next star performer.
Lib Dems have control of Tunbridge Wells, and the Conservatives are wiped out in Cheltenham.
Yes the spa towns aren't looking good for the Tories and heading yellow (though the Conservatives held most of the rural wards around Tunbridge Wells with a smattering of Independents even if they lost the town itself)
Lib Dems wiping out the Tories on Cheltenham and becoming largest party in the City of Gloucester comes after big gains last year in the Cotswolds. Gloucestershire has really swung away from the Conservatives.
I don’t think Labour will mind the fairly bonkers Sky News NEV reporting. Not Michael Thrasher’s greatest moment but it doesn’t help them if people think it’s a foregone conclusion, although I note that no-one has ever said a Labour landslide is ‘inevitable’, not even me.
Andy Street may get in and, if so, we should note that both he and Ben Houchen campaigned as virtually independents, something that won’t help the Conservatives at the GE. These were terrible results for the tories who are on course for a hammering at the General Election.
Meanwhile I’m expecting a comfortable win for Sadiq Khan,
Sky NEV now 35% v 26%. They had a 7% margin earlier, so now updated to align with BBC.
That's not going to be the NEV at a GE though. Take 5% off LD and add to Lab, and a couple of percent off Other and add to Con.
Yes it’s not been the finest moment from Sky News but as I say I don’t think Labour should mind at all. It won’t help them if everyone thinks a victory is inevitable.
Lib Dems have control of Tunbridge Wells, and the Conservatives are wiped out in Cheltenham.
Yes the spa towns aren't looking good for the Tories and heading yellow (though the Conservatives held most of the rural wards around Tunbridge Wells with a smattering of Independents even if they lost the town itself)
Post Covid DFLs have refreshed the demographics in a lot of these towns. So it’s tricky to read such a result and extrapolate nationwide.
Lib Dems have control of Tunbridge Wells, and the Conservatives are wiped out in Cheltenham.
Yes the spa towns aren't looking good for the Tories and heading yellow (though the Conservatives held most of the rural wards around Tunbridge Wells with a smattering of Independents even if they lost the town itself)
[…]. So it’s tricky to read such a result and extrapolate nationwide.
That really should be the caveat for most of these local results. They give a broad picture, one which is (equally broadly) in line with national opinion polls, but at local level there are so many variables.
One thing we should probably pay great attention to, and which could be the subject of some threads, is the propensity for tactical voting: especially of the anti-tory variety. People are much more clued up these days. It could be a significant factor.
We are in the period of the phoney war. War has been declared, a massive barrage of shelling with the red scourge conquering new places. But the big battle lies ahead, and the armchair generals are poking a stick at the ashes and looking through their tinted/blinkered specs looking for guidance.
I think the Sunak presser in Sheffield Teesside is the moment of the most shark-jumping for the blues. A win which - combined with results elsewhere - demonstrates that they will be obliterated once the fighting starts properly. And yet for now, the mood in team Sunak is WE'RE ALRIGHT! WE'RE ALRIGHT!
If the Hall win is just a confection from CCHQ it has been quite clever as the Blackpool by election the Metro Mayors and the X00 lost Councillors has been lost in the fog of Khan's assumed defeat.
Rabbit and AndyJS have done their bit on here too.
Can we not attack other posters integrity please?
Rabbit and AndyJS were seeking value as punter, just like everyone else.
Lots and lots of ramping goes on here so one would never know.
If Sadiq Khan has lost to Susan Hall, expect claims for coffee damaged laptops.
If Hall beats Khan, she may even get a call from Trump Tower to congratulate her. I think it unlikely though
One day we will look back on the GHD (Great Hall Delusion), that brief time when people thought “If Hall beats Khan…” was a plausible notion.
There’s something about the votes being cast that makes people consider possibilities that, a few days earlier without a single vote in the box, they would have dismissed as obvious nonsense. Nevertheless for anyone able to trade the trends I suspect it was a profitable experience.
Lib Dems have control of Tunbridge Wells, and the Conservatives are wiped out in Cheltenham.
Yes the spa towns aren't looking good for the Tories and heading yellow (though the Conservatives held most of the rural wards around Tunbridge Wells with a smattering of Independents even if they lost the town itself)
Post Covid DFLs have refreshed the demographics in a lot of these towns. So it’s tricky to read such a result and extrapolate nationwide.
Lib Dems have control of Tunbridge Wells, and the Conservatives are wiped out in Cheltenham.
Yes the spa towns aren't looking good for the Tories and heading yellow (though the Conservatives held most of the rural wards around Tunbridge Wells with a smattering of Independents even if they lost the town itself)
Lib Dems wiping out the Tories on Cheltenham and becoming largest party in the City of Gloucester comes after big gains last year in the Cotswolds. Gloucestershire has really swung away from the Conservatives.
To come away with a hundred gains when they’re still lucky to make 10% in the national VI will be regarded as a successful night, I think, especially as Labour is only on +170 despite a national VI of mid-40%s. That the government is deeply unpopular and that Labour is heading for a majority are both clear, but the third factor that there is little enthusiasm for Labour’s offering and people are very willing to make other choices when they are competitive, bodes well for the GE. Ditto for the Greens.
We are in the period of the phoney war. War has been declared, a massive barrage of shelling with the red scourge conquering new places. But the big battle lies ahead, and the armchair generals are poking a stick at the ashes and looking through their tinted/blinkered specs looking for guidance.
I think the Sunak presser in Sheffield Teesside is the moment of the most shark-jumping for the blues. A win which - combined with results elsewhere - demonstrates that they will be obliterated once the fighting starts properly. And yet for now, the mood in team Sunak is WE'RE ALRIGHT! WE'RE ALRIGHT!
If the Hall win is just a confection from CCHQ it has been quite clever as the Blackpool by election the Metro Mayors and the X00 lost Councillors has been lost in the fog of Khan's assumed defeat.
Rabbit and AndyJS have done their bit on here too.
Can we not attack other posters integrity please?
Rabbit and AndyJS were seeking value as punter, just like everyone else.
Lots and lots of ramping goes on here so one would never know.
I rarely agree with you, or the way you put things, but on this I do.
If people have exposed themselves to losses you can see why they might be tempted to fuel (fanciful) rumours. The delay between voting and counting doesn’t help.
If this all began with a CCHQ staffer getting excited, I’m guessing it was a junior worker. Anyone who has ever worked on an election (I have once at local level) will know how easy it is to believe you’re on course to win based on getting your vote out. You can sit inside campaign HQ and become very excited: it’s the ultimate echo chamber.
(1) SkyBet paid out on Houchen bet at 2/7 (2) Hills bet at 7/4 on Street (now all greened up) (3) Exchange Khan / Hall - profit either way now, but balance on Hall in 3 figures (4) Ladbrokes Khan bet share in 35-40% range - odds on
We are in the period of the phoney war. War has been declared, a massive barrage of shelling with the red scourge conquering new places. But the big battle lies ahead, and the armchair generals are poking a stick at the ashes and looking through their tinted/blinkered specs looking for guidance.
I think the Sunak presser in Sheffield Teesside is the moment of the most shark-jumping for the blues. A win which - combined with results elsewhere - demonstrates that they will be obliterated once the fighting starts properly. And yet for now, the mood in team Sunak is WE'RE ALRIGHT! WE'RE ALRIGHT!
If the Hall win is just a confection from CCHQ it has been quite clever as the Blackpool by election the Metro Mayors and the X00 lost Councillors has been lost in the fog of Khan's assumed defeat.
Rabbit and AndyJS have done their bit on here too.
Can we not attack other posters integrity please?
Rabbit and AndyJS were seeking value as punter, just like everyone else.
Lots and lots of ramping goes on here so one would never know.
I rarely agree with you, or the way you put things, but on this I do.
If people have exposed themselves to losses you can see why they might be tempted to fuel (fanciful) rumours. The delay between voting and counting doesn’t help.
If this all began with a CCHQ staffer getting excited, I’m guessing it was a junior worker. Anyone who has ever worked on an election (I have once at local level) will know how easy it is to believe you’re on course to win based on getting your vote out. You can sit inside campaign HQ and become very excited: it’s the ultimate echo chamber.
It used to be called candidateitis - the candidate would meet a couple of people in the high street who said some nice things, and rush back convinced they were onto a landslide. Sometimes the agent would have to take them aside into a quiet room, and have a word.
(1) SkyBet paid out on Houchen bet at 2/7 (2) Hills bet at 7/4 on Street (now all greened up) (3) Exchange Khan / Hall - profit either way now, but balance on Hall in 3 figures (4) Ladbrokes Khan bet share in 35-40% range - odds on
I stand to make over £400 profit at the moment
Well done; sensible to have laid off on Hall. In the end it wasn’t a value bet, but a trading bet.
If Sir Ed Davey manages to get NOM I’ll be very pleased.
Oh SKS is shite SED slightly less shite and a good LE2024 for him
I genuinely thought SED was a reference to the Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands. I thought it was a bit strange, but "Sir Ed Davey" obviously hasn't really registered in my consciousness.
Same here, apart from the German thing. Until it was spelled out in a later post, I could not work out who was meant by SED. Now, the LibDems have gained a hatful of councillors so perhaps it does not matter, especially if they can regain third party status in the next House of Commons, but surely the party establishment must be looking around for its next star performer.
The third party has to have a leader with charisma. Kennedy had it, Ashdown had it, even Cable, Clegg and Farron had it a tiny bit. But Swinson and Davey not so much.
There’s an opportunity for the LibDems but I’m not convinced Davey is the one to exploit it fully.
Lib Dems have control of Tunbridge Wells, and the Conservatives are wiped out in Cheltenham.
Yes the spa towns aren't looking good for the Tories and heading yellow (though the Conservatives held most of the rural wards around Tunbridge Wells with a smattering of Independents even if they lost the town itself)
Trouble in the Spa towns, Hyufd? Must be something in the water!
(1) SkyBet paid out on Houchen bet at 2/7 (2) Hills bet at 7/4 on Street (now all greened up) (3) Exchange Khan / Hall - profit either way now, but balance on Hall in 3 figures (4) Ladbrokes Khan bet share in 35-40% range - odds on
I stand to make over £400 profit at the moment
That's brilliant, always good to hear updates on successful trades.
It’s Saturday morning and there are still a stack of results awaited. Yet more American influence on our politics is most disappointing.
In most US elections (2020 being the exception). the winner is normally known by breakfast time in the UK the next day. That said, not sure why eg London counting Saturday and not Friday - anyone know why?
(1) SkyBet paid out on Houchen bet at 2/7 (2) Hills bet at 7/4 on Street (now all greened up) (3) Exchange Khan / Hall - profit either way now, but balance on Hall in 3 figures (4) Ladbrokes Khan bet share in 35-40% range - odds on
I stand to make over £400 profit at the moment
Well done; sensible to have laid off on Hall. In the end it wasn’t a value bet, but a trading bet.
Lib Dems have control of Tunbridge Wells, and the Conservatives are wiped out in Cheltenham.
Yes the spa towns aren't looking good for the Tories and heading yellow (though the Conservatives held most of the rural wards around Tunbridge Wells with a smattering of Independents even if they lost the town itself)
Lib Dems wiping out the Tories on Cheltenham and becoming largest party in the City of Gloucester comes after big gains last year in the Cotswolds. Gloucestershire has really swung away from the Conservatives.
To come away with a hundred gains when they’re still lucky to make 10% in the national VI will be regarded as a successful night, I think, especially as Labour is only on +170 despite a national VI of mid-40%s. That the government is deeply unpopular and that Labour is heading for a majority are both clear, but the third factor that there is little enthusiasm for Labour’s offering and people are very willing to make other choices when they are competitive, bodes well for the GE. Ditto for the Greens.
It was actually a very good night for the LDs and Greens, which has passed under the radar a bit.
They should do fine at the GE too, but probably not as well as this result. GEs are different and people are electing a Government. I'd guess LDs on 40 seats, and Greens on two.
Labour majority still nailed on. Tories? I'd say about 150, which wouldn't be too bad in the circumstances.
Morning all! Its a fascinating election cycle. Interesting how certain people (BJO being high on the list) cling to whatever specially selected facts to make their case whilst ignoring all of the other facts.
The only way for Tories to win is to not be Tories. Houchen being front and centre of this strategy. And even then, his win means defeat for literally every Tory MP in the region.
How will Tory MPs pull off the same trick when it comes to the GE...?
(1) SkyBet paid out on Houchen bet at 2/7 (2) Hills bet at 7/4 on Street (now all greened up) (3) Exchange Khan / Hall - profit either way now, but balance on Hall in 3 figures (4) Ladbrokes Khan bet share in 35-40% range - odds on
I stand to make over £400 profit at the moment
Well done.
I didn't bet much on these races. A fiver on Khan 35-40% band at 22/1 and similar on Lab in the WM at 8/1.
My losses will crystallise today on the Championship, but I will enjoy seeing my team lift another trophy. Leicester now have the record for most 2nd teir wins. When LCFC were still ahead but playing poorly I laid a win fairly heavily so will lose about £100 in insurance bets. It would have come in if both Ipswich and Leeds hadn't suddenly also starting to drop points.
Overall yesterday's results look good from a non-betting perspective. Tories took a pounding but not apocalyptic, Lab LD and Green all did well, and it looks as if Lab have taken the message on board not to be so pro-war on Gaza. The remaining mayoral races could go either way. Street is the acceptable face of Toryism, so OK, and in the unlikely event of Hall winning she is a useful reminder for Lab voters not to get too complacent.
(1) SkyBet paid out on Houchen bet at 2/7 (2) Hills bet at 7/4 on Street (now all greened up) (3) Exchange Khan / Hall - profit either way now, but balance on Hall in 3 figures (4) Ladbrokes Khan bet share in 35-40% range - odds on
I stand to make over £400 profit at the moment
Well done; sensible to have laid off on Hall. In the end it wasn’t a value bet, but a trading bet.
Thanks. The two aren't mutually exclusive. A value bet provides opportunities for trading, which is why it's value.
I still await to see with interest how close it is later today.
(1) SkyBet paid out on Houchen bet at 2/7 (2) Hills bet at 7/4 on Street (now all greened up) (3) Exchange Khan / Hall - profit either way now, but balance on Hall in 3 figures (4) Ladbrokes Khan bet share in 35-40% range - odds on
I stand to make over £400 profit at the moment
That's brilliant, always good to hear updates on successful trades.
I should caveat that depends on Khan landing in that sweet spot.
If he doesn't then the profit drops to just sub £200, because i heavily bet that band, so the exact vote % is quite important for me today.
(1) SkyBet paid out on Houchen bet at 2/7 (2) Hills bet at 7/4 on Street (now all greened up) (3) Exchange Khan / Hall - profit either way now, but balance on Hall in 3 figures (4) Ladbrokes Khan bet share in 35-40% range - odds on
I stand to make over £400 profit at the moment
Well done; sensible to have laid off on Hall. In the end it wasn’t a value bet, but a trading bet.
Um hold on. A "value bet" is a bet made on the assumption that the odds will change in your favour. It becomes a "trading bet" if it is traded out before the results are known. If ridden all the way down to the result and it loses, then it becomes a "value loser". Or have I got this wrong?
If Sir Ed Davey manages to get NOM I’ll be very pleased.
Oh SKS is shite SED slightly less shite and a good LE2024 for him
I genuinely thought SED was a reference to the Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands. I thought it was a bit strange, but "Sir Ed Davey" obviously hasn't really registered in my consciousness.
Same here, apart from the German thing. Until it was spelled out in a later post, I could not work out who was meant by SED. Now, the LibDems have gained a hatful of councillors so perhaps it does not matter, especially if they can regain third party status in the next House of Commons, but surely the party establishment must be looking around for its next star performer.
The third party has to have a leader with charisma. Kennedy had it, Ashdown had it, even Cable, Clegg and Farron had it a tiny bit. But Swinson and Davey not so much.
There’s an opportunity for the LibDems but I’m not convinced Davey is the one to exploit it fully.
Davey is not going to ever pull up any stumps in terms of charisma. It helps that he will be up against the wooden Starmer and petulant Sunak as comparators.
His target seat strategy is the correct position this GE, and focused on Tory held seats. He will have won if he puts LD back in 3rd place over SNP and gets more visibility next parliament, and the Jackpot if the balance of power in NOC.
(1) SkyBet paid out on Houchen bet at 2/7 (2) Hills bet at 7/4 on Street (now all greened up) (3) Exchange Khan / Hall - profit either way now, but balance on Hall in 3 figures (4) Ladbrokes Khan bet share in 35-40% range - odds on
Reform polled about 6.5% in the by-election in Bromley . Khan needs Reform to poll minimum 5% across London .
I don't think they'll get more than 3%.
I assume Reform types will see an opportunity to vote out Khan, so swing behind the Tory.
I can't even believe we are discussing a Khan loss, it seems so improbable. However, I haven't lived in that London since Ken was mayor, so no idea of things on the ground.
I notice no-one is starting any 'Andy Burnham has lost Manchester' rumours.
I’m hearing Andy Burnham has lost Manchester. You heard it here first.
A stupid post to put on a betting site. That might have got you banned when Mike was in charge.
Just catching up on posts from overnight and saw this. You absolute bellend. It was clearly a reply to a post by someone else that nobody could possibly take seriously unless they were some kind of retard who might forget their ID despite being a poster on a political website where the matter of voter ID has been discussed endlessly.
Perhaps instead of being an absolute humourless prick you could spend some time working on your hilarious repeat posts of “TRUSS”, whilst admonishing others for repeating themes in posts, or just take some time to question why you are such an absolute cock of the highest order.
(1) SkyBet paid out on Houchen bet at 2/7 (2) Hills bet at 7/4 on Street (now all greened up) (3) Exchange Khan / Hall - profit either way now, but balance on Hall in 3 figures (4) Ladbrokes Khan bet share in 35-40% range - odds on
I stand to make over £400 profit at the moment
Well done; sensible to have laid off on Hall. In the end it wasn’t a value bet, but a trading bet.
Thanks. The two aren't mutually exclusive. A value bet provides opportunities for trading, which is why it's value.
I still await to see with interest how close it is later today.
Well, the object is different, I’d suggest, and they are separate concepts which whilst not mutually exclusive also don’t necessarily overlap.
A value bet is, as you described earlier, one in which even though you lose more often than you win, the odds make it attractive in the long run. The poker analogy being betting a flush draw at low stake, where the payouts when your suit card comes up more than cover the losses when it doesn’t. The trick there is correctly assessing low probability events, and it remains my view that Hall was never a value bet from that perspective.
A trading bet is one that stands to lose, but where you anticipate a narrowing at some point before the result is declared, so you can lay off at a profit. The object is not to be holding the bet at the end, in contrast to the above. Elections with a clear front runner but where there is a delayed count are perhaps ideally suited to such opportunities, given the febrile atmosphere and tendency for thin rumours to gain fast traction, and that may be a learning point from this contest with useful application going forward?
(1) SkyBet paid out on Houchen bet at 2/7 (2) Hills bet at 7/4 on Street (now all greened up) (3) Exchange Khan / Hall - profit either way now, but balance on Hall in 3 figures (4) Ladbrokes Khan bet share in 35-40% range - odds on
I stand to make over £400 profit at the moment
Well done; sensible to have laid off on Hall. In the end it wasn’t a value bet, but a trading bet.
Um hold on. A "value bet" is a bet made on the assumption that the odds will change in your favour. It becomes a "trading bet" if it is traded out before the results are known. If ridden all the way down to the result and it loses, then it becomes a "value loser". Or have I got this wrong?
A value bet/value loser is what I call a bet that loses when I don't want to admit I cocked up
(1) SkyBet paid out on Houchen bet at 2/7 (2) Hills bet at 7/4 on Street (now all greened up) (3) Exchange Khan / Hall - profit either way now, but balance on Hall in 3 figures (4) Ladbrokes Khan bet share in 35-40% range - odds on
I stand to make over £400 profit at the moment
Well done; sensible to have laid off on Hall. In the end it wasn’t a value bet, but a trading bet.
Um hold on. A "value bet" is a bet made on the assumption that the odds will change in your favour. It becomes a "trading bet" if it is traded out before the results are known. If ridden all the way down to the result and it loses, then it becomes a "value loser". Or have I got this wrong?
(1) SkyBet paid out on Houchen bet at 2/7 (2) Hills bet at 7/4 on Street (now all greened up) (3) Exchange Khan / Hall - profit either way now, but balance on Hall in 3 figures (4) Ladbrokes Khan bet share in 35-40% range - odds on
Comments
Another thing Woking is known for is having a large population of Sicilian descent.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKkx8LCCCNY
Con 35.1% (-1.3)
Lab 31.6 (-5.0)
LD 16.3 (-1.6)
Green 7.8 (+0.6)
Oth 9.2 (+7.3)
Here an Independent gain from Labour in the one Muslim heavy ward is decisive. Labour drop 822 votes in the ward and Conservatives gain a plurality of 792 across the constituency, even though other wards tightened.
A GE will have different dynamics, but Labour's job in Spen Valley looks a little harder today.
Explain why SKS lost over 320 seats in 2021 the last time these seats were contested compared to the worst ever Lab leaders performance
Explain why SKS Tories are only gaining half of the seats he lost in 2021
Explain why SKS is over 20 points ahead in fictional polls but when real people vote he isn't
Explain why Lab on these results are only 2 points better off than in 2019 and nowhere near the 40% of 2017
Explain how the Greens are Tories. Surely if they were Tory Sunil who always votes Tory isn't voting for them!!
Because he is shite.
Hope that helps
Actually I'm not THAT interested in crematoria. But due to a strange set of circumstances a decade or so back I do know more than most people about the industry.
So if some voters who are fed up of the Tories but wary of a big Labour majority go LD and Sunak squeezes Reform it could yet be a close general election, albeit with Labour still likely ahead
Surrey has the Dorks, and Berkshire has the Berks.
But more importantly, they are both South of Watford.
https://x.com/bbcnewsnight/status/1786518916593856537?s=46
https://x.com/bbcnewsnight/status/1786518658698633512?s=46
Next challenge, once they’ve finished cataloguing the terrible Labour performance, is to get them to actually notice the Green Party.
Some posters may be unsurprused about me sharing this nugget.
https://conservativehome.com/2024/05/03/local-elections-live-blog-labour-gain-redditch-hartlepool-thurrock-and-rushmoor-but-the-conservatives-hold-on-in-harlow/
SKS fans been in denial.
Last time Corbyn fought these seat he got 1121 seats.
SKS 20+ points ahead in the polls falling short of Labour's worst ever leader.
It was obvious from the outset that Starmer's abysmal performance as Prime Minister would drag the party down.
On that note, I'm off to bed, whisky having been consumed.
Surrey is England's most wooded county.
Lib Dems have control of Tunbridge Wells, and the Conservatives are wiped out in Cheltenham.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_United_Kingdom_local_elections
SKS is not the Messiah he is just a very naughty (pro genocide) boy
Although they too are behind the phenomenal performance of Independent Socialists who's results are off the scale thanks to Gaza
He is the master of boring.
Interview with Jason Beer KC.
https://www.thelawyer.com/jason-beer-kc-my-most-vivid-pupillage-memory-watching-an-all-barrister-punch-up/
Trump Assistant (and later White House Comms Director) Hope Hicks testifying in NY Court about Trump giving instructions wrt payments to women he had sex / affairs with.
I think this will take some time to be unpacked.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/may/03/trump-hush-money-trial-forensic-analysis-testimony-latest-updates
This one from electionmaps kicked it off
https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1786140409539792975?s=46
The next post of note Scottnpaste
“CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.”
Everyone is making a joke of it and don’t believe a word of it in a great many of following posts.
The next thing of note, still May 2nd is Anabob pointing out to us
“Hall into 13.5 on BX”
A little later Foxy posts this
Another CCHQ source gets in touch to dispute any claim that they are “chipper”.
They are also much more cautious about the London mayoral result.
https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1786150982579065118?t=qmpusT9V8nSTr40iCCp7Xg&s=
And Andy posts this
Is this spin?
"George Eaton
@georgeeaton
Labour aide says they expect London to be “very, very close”.
I looked at how Sadiq Khan could lose back in March."
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1786150540222562815
.still no one getting upset or over excited and Anabob posts
Anabobazina said:
Hall sliding back out towards 17 now.
Quite a while later Andy accuses Pete of making Hall’s win sound like foregone conclusion, and everyone’s getting bit overheated.
MJW talks about the re-emergence of the “ Johnson Doughnut”
At 12:01 I post
“I’m taking the opposite line to you MexPete! I’m saying neither she has definitely won, nor would it be a seismic event.”
Everyone then seems to be very rude to one another.
So just normal PB.
At 12:17 I’m ordered buy Anabob to “put up or shut up” and I reply “She’s not going to win. It was a mischievous rumour. Trump Hall sums her up - 2 PMQ questions and the Guardian report yesterday about her dealings with vile WhatsApps needs to wake everyone up, Tory as well as Labour.
Khans winning margin could be in single figures, if both camps hyping it like this, but likely teens we both agree?”
12:24 Andy JS posts
“Politics UK
@PolitlcsUK
Susan Hall's core inner circle also believe she has won"
https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1786154035944259826”
But no one seems to mention it again until CR at nearly 4.50.
I think it’s all PBers who piled on after Dawn who talked this thing up.
Laura K was still doing it this evening, we can add.
Labour lose 7 seats all to Socialists.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/england/councils/E07000178
Winners
Sunak
Houchen
Street
Hall
Greens
LDs
Labour (but only in Blackpool South)
Gorgeous
Corbyn by default CF 2017
Losers
Khan
Starmer
Conservatives
Labour (Nationally, except in Blackpool South)
Reform
Am I right?
Sadiq Khan is 53.
If we wins a third term as London Mayor, what are his prospects for winning a fourth term?
(My take is that afaics the evidence is now coming through strongly to support the success of his policies eg emissions reductions, so the Susan Hall type lobby will wither on the vine if he wins this term.)
@OwenJones84
I may regret tweeting this, but I think Sadiq Khan will make it.
Too much of a polling error for Susan Hall to win. That said, it'll be closer than polls suggested.
But Sadiq was undoubtedly hurt by younger and minority voters being disillusioned with Labour.
10:08 PM · May 3, 2024"
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1786503134694539291
https://twitter.com/BristolCouncil/status/1786470001198653531
Twitter data on turnout in London. Post:
https://x.com/marwandata/status/1786445630308561082
I don’t think Labour will mind the fairly bonkers Sky News NEV reporting. Not Michael Thrasher’s greatest moment but it doesn’t help them if people think it’s a foregone conclusion, although I note that no-one has ever said a Labour landslide is ‘inevitable’, not even me.
Andy Street may get in and, if so, we should note that both he and Ben Houchen campaigned as virtually independents, something that won’t help the Conservatives at the GE. These were terrible results for the tories who are on course for a hammering at the General Election.
Meanwhile I’m expecting a comfortable win for Sadiq Khan,
Changing leader now would be pretty crazy and Labour will be very happy to face off against Sunak.
I think Penny may lose her seat.
One thing we should probably pay great attention to, and which could be the subject of some threads, is the propensity for tactical voting: especially of the anti-tory variety. People are much more clued up these days. It could be a significant factor.
If people have exposed themselves to losses you can see why they might be tempted to fuel (fanciful) rumours. The delay between voting and counting doesn’t help.
If this all began with a CCHQ staffer getting excited, I’m guessing it was a junior worker. Anyone who has ever worked on an election (I have once at local level) will know how easy it is to believe you’re on course to win based on getting your vote out. You can sit inside campaign HQ and become very excited: it’s the ultimate echo chamber.
(1) SkyBet paid out on Houchen bet at 2/7
(2) Hills bet at 7/4 on Street (now all greened up)
(3) Exchange Khan / Hall - profit either way now, but balance on Hall in 3 figures
(4) Ladbrokes Khan bet share in 35-40% range - odds on
I stand to make over £400 profit at the moment
There’s an opportunity for the LibDems but I’m not convinced Davey is the one to exploit it fully.
How's Epping? Hear you had a lot of votes.
They should do fine at the GE too, but probably not as well as this result. GEs are different and people are electing a Government. I'd guess LDs on 40 seats, and Greens on two.
Labour majority still nailed on. Tories? I'd say about 150, which wouldn't be too bad in the circumstances.
The only way for Tories to win is to not be Tories. Houchen being front and centre of this strategy. And even then, his win means defeat for literally every Tory MP in the region.
How will Tory MPs pull off the same trick when it comes to the GE...?
Actually..
I didn't bet much on these races. A fiver on Khan 35-40% band at 22/1 and similar on Lab in the WM at 8/1.
My losses will crystallise today on the Championship, but I will enjoy seeing my team lift another trophy. Leicester now have the record for most 2nd teir wins. When LCFC were still ahead but playing poorly I laid a win fairly heavily so will lose about £100 in insurance bets. It would have come in if both Ipswich and Leeds hadn't suddenly also starting to drop points.
Overall yesterday's results look good from a non-betting perspective. Tories took a pounding but not apocalyptic, Lab LD and Green all did well, and it looks as if Lab have taken the message on board not to be so pro-war on Gaza. The remaining mayoral races could go either way. Street is the acceptable face of Toryism, so OK, and in the unlikely event of Hall winning she is a useful reminder for Lab voters not to get too complacent.
I still await to see with interest how close it is later today.
If he doesn't then the profit drops to just sub £200, because i heavily bet that band, so the exact vote % is quite important for me today.
His target seat strategy is the correct position this GE, and focused on Tory held seats. He will have won if he puts LD back in 3rd place over SNP and gets more visibility next parliament, and the Jackpot if the balance of power in NOC.
Perhaps instead of being an absolute humourless prick you could spend some time working on your hilarious repeat posts of “TRUSS”, whilst admonishing others for repeating themes in posts, or just take some time to question why you are such an absolute cock of the highest order.
A value bet is, as you described earlier, one in which even though you lose more often than you win, the odds make it attractive in the long run. The poker analogy being betting a flush draw at low stake, where the payouts when your suit card comes up more than cover the losses when it doesn’t. The trick there is correctly assessing low probability events, and it remains my view that Hall was never a value bet from that perspective.
A trading bet is one that stands to lose, but where you anticipate a narrowing at some point before the result is declared, so you can lay off at a profit. The object is not to be holding the bet at the end, in contrast to the above. Elections with a clear front runner but where there is a delayed count are perhaps ideally suited to such opportunities, given the febrile atmosphere and tendency for thin rumours to gain fast traction, and that may be a learning point from this contest with useful application going forward?