We are in the period of the phoney war. War has been declared, a massive barrage of shelling with the red scourge conquering new places. But the big battle lies ahead, and the armchair generals are poking a stick at the ashes and looking through their tinted/blinkered specs looking for guidance.
I think the Sunak presser in Sheffield Teesside is the moment of the most shark-jumping for the blues. A win which - combined with results elsewhere - demonstrates that they will be obliterated once the fighting starts properly. And yet for now, the mood in team Sunak is WE'RE ALRIGHT! WE'RE ALRIGHT!
If the Hall win is just a confection from CCHQ it has been quite clever as the Blackpool by election the Metro Mayors and the X00 lost Councillors has been lost in the fog of Khan's assumed defeat.
Rabbit and AndyJS have done their bit on here too.
I don't want Susan Hall or Sadiq Khan to be mayor. I wouldn't have voted for either of them if I lived in London. There's a difference between making predictions and what you want to happen.
We are in the period of the phoney war. War has been declared, a massive barrage of shelling with the red scourge conquering new places. But the big battle lies ahead, and the armchair generals are poking a stick at the ashes and looking through their tinted/blinkered specs looking for guidance.
I think the Sunak presser in Sheffield Teesside is the moment of the most shark-jumping for the blues. A win which - combined with results elsewhere - demonstrates that they will be obliterated once the fighting starts properly. And yet for now, the mood in team Sunak is WE'RE ALRIGHT! WE'RE ALRIGHT!
You are right in essence however there is always the important of “the big mo”. Remember there is still a lot of favourable media for the Tories, I noticed a bit of a sea change re Rwanda and immigration the last week and if the papers were flooded with a positive (although bs) spin for the blues, especially if Hall wins by some miracle, news, a few flights get off to Rwanda, the economy is looking better (again , in the press), and they can get a really good campaign on Starmer being “Sir Two-face”.
think a time magazine type cover split with him smiling with a quote on one side and the other him frowning with his flip flop and the sub-header of “which lie are you believing?” Then there is potentially a lot to play for. Not a Tory win but an uncomfortable close win for Labour where they are led by the man who lost a huge huge lead.
Its possible. But to briefly offer the counter to that: 1. Reality & Tory internal polling will push them right. Which makes them consolidate the ReFUK vote but lose everyone else 2. The economic "recovery" like the "tax cut" do not exist in reality. The more people are told they are better off - and they are worse off - the less they will want to reward the party who has screwed them and is lying to their face 3. Hall defeating Khaaaaaaaan would be a shock to the system for the GTTO crowd (which is 80% of the electorate). BJO and the cranks will be delighted, everyone else will focus hard on tactical voting and turnout.
These post office lawyers and managers really do overstretch the 'I'm incompetent, not a liar' defence I see.
Former senior Post Office lawyer Jarnail Singh has denied that he knew about bugs in the Horizon system while sub-postmaster prosecutions continued for three years.
However, lead counsel for the Horizon inquiry Jason Beer accused Mr Singh of telling a "big fat lie".
Mr Singh was forwarded an email on the eve of the 2010 trial of Seema Misra, a sub-postmistress who was sent to jail while pregnant.
It identified bugs in the Horizon system that should have been disclosed in Mrs Misra's trial.
Mr Singh denied having read the email, despite being presented with evidence that he saved a copy to his hard drive and printed it off...
When asked whether it was saved on the hard drive of his computer, Mr Singh said: "I don't even know what you're talking about.
"I don't know how these things worked."
"You don't know how to save a document?" Mr Beer asked.
"I didn't know how to do it," Mr Singh responded, saying he wouldn't have had the technical knowledge either to do that or to understand the document itself.
What ever happened to honesty and integrity. And he's a lawyer, for goodness sake.
No one likes admitting they cocked up for reasons other than honest incompetence, but when there's evidence as overwhelming you will have a lot more credibility by having a damascene conversion about how you see actions than stubbornly insisting black is white and you are just an goofball. Especially when they are high powered individuals who probably have spent careers insisting how brilliant they are.
It's more dignified for a start.
He was notorious within the PO long before the scandal became public. He has plainly lied to the Inquiry on numerous occasions. You would consider him laughable, except that he contributed significantly to many serious miscarriages of justice.
It is extraordinary that the PO should have employed such a man in a senior legal role. It speaks volumes about the generally dysfunctional nature of the organisation and its apparent lack of concern for plain, simple honesty or justice.
There is a good case for banging up every single Board member for the 20 year period in question, every single senior executive, and every sod involved in the persecution of the Subpostmasters, right down to the pond life that called themselves Investigators. The legal firms which advised the PO should naturally be included.
It won't happen, but if the Police do start feeling collars, they could do no better than start with Mr Jamail Singh.
This happens in every local election so apologies for asking but I can't remember the answer. Why do the BBC and Guardian websites have different numbers for the change of councillors?
We are in the period of the phoney war. War has been declared, a massive barrage of shelling with the red scourge conquering new places. But the big battle lies ahead, and the armchair generals are poking a stick at the ashes and looking through their tinted/blinkered specs looking for guidance.
I think the Sunak presser in Sheffield Teesside is the moment of the most shark-jumping for the blues. A win which - combined with results elsewhere - demonstrates that they will be obliterated once the fighting starts properly. And yet for now, the mood in team Sunak is WE'RE ALRIGHT! WE'RE ALRIGHT!
If the Hall win is just a confection from CCHQ it has been quite clever as the Blackpool by election the Metro Mayors and the X00 lost Councillors has been lost in the fog of Khan's assumed defeat.
Rabbit and AndyJS have done their bit on here too.
Can we not attack other posters integrity please?
Rabbit and AndyJS were seeking value as punter, just like everyone else.
That isn't an attack. Its an observation. Rampers ramp. Besides, plenty of others - myself included - are quite excited by the idea of Trump Hall winning. I may be an amateur politician but its been a life-long hobby, and the funnier it gets the more I enjoy it.
We are in the period of the phoney war. War has been declared, a massive barrage of shelling with the red scourge conquering new places. But the big battle lies ahead, and the armchair generals are poking a stick at the ashes and looking through their tinted/blinkered specs looking for guidance.
I think the Sunak presser in Sheffield Teesside is the moment of the most shark-jumping for the blues. A win which - combined with results elsewhere - demonstrates that they will be obliterated once the fighting starts properly. And yet for now, the mood in team Sunak is WE'RE ALRIGHT! WE'RE ALRIGHT!
If the Hall win is just a confection from CCHQ it has been quite clever as the Blackpool by election the Metro Mayors and the X00 lost Councillors has been lost in the fog of Khan's assumed defeat.
Rabbit and AndyJS have done their bit on here too.
Amidst the excitement Labour are still chugging to that 'unenthusiastic' landslide. Perhaps it's better for them if people think it will be close.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1h It’s incredible that some people are looking at the projected national vote share for the local elections and saying “this shows Labour is only 9% ahead. Much worse than the polls. The Tories can bridge that in a general election”. They’re not remotely comparable figures.
Whilst true, what we can compare them with is local elections before changes of government. So, in 1996:
Lab - 44% Con - 29% Lib Dem - 26%
And in 2009:
Con - 38% Lab - 23% Lib Dem - 28%
It's an interesting one. We have quite a lot of conflicting pieces of information. The by elections are very healthy for Labour, but the locals aren't so good. And, of course, there's Scotland which complicates matters.
I reckon Labour majority of 60, but wouldn't be surprised if they come up short.
Final turnout table for London Mayoral with increases or decreases.
Thanks for that. The comparison with 2021 really helps . It’s a shame we don’t get more detailed info as many of the constituencies spread from inner to the outer areas .
Natasha Clark @NatashaC Labour sources dampening talk of a Susan Hall win, saying the fundamentals are good and no votes have yet been counted. But they also say they've been saying all along it'll be closely fought....
Final turnout table for London Mayoral with increases or decreases.
Thanks for that. The comparison with 2021 really helps . It’s a shame we don’t get more detailed info as many of the constituencies spread from inner to the outer areas .
Sideways too! Croydon is much more Labour than Sutton I think.
Reform polled about 6.5% in the by-election in Bromley . Khan needs Reform to poll minimum 5% across London .
I don't think they'll get more than 3%.
I assume Reform types will see an opportunity to vote out Khan, so swing behind the Tory.
I can't even believe we are discussing a Khan loss, it seems so improbable. However, I haven't lived in that London since Ken was mayor, so no idea of things on the ground.
I notice no-one is starting any 'Andy Burnham has lost Manchester' rumours.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1h It’s incredible that some people are looking at the projected national vote share for the local elections and saying “this shows Labour is only 9% ahead. Much worse than the polls. The Tories can bridge that in a general election”. They’re not remotely comparable figures.
Whilst true, what we can compare them with is local elections before changes of government. So, in 1996:
Lab - 44% Con - 29% Lib Dem - 26%
And in 2009:
Con - 38% Lab - 23% Lib Dem - 28%
It's an interesting one. We have quite a lot of conflicting pieces of information. The by elections are very healthy for Labour, but the locals aren't so good. And, of course, there's Scotland which complicates matters.
I reckon Labour majority of 60, but wouldn't be surprised if they come up short.
All comparisons with history that far back don’t impress me much, with voting in local elections now much more fragmented, those historical comparisons mean diddly squat.
We are in the period of the phoney war. War has been declared, a massive barrage of shelling with the red scourge conquering new places. But the big battle lies ahead, and the armchair generals are poking a stick at the ashes and looking through their tinted/blinkered specs looking for guidance.
I think the Sunak presser in Sheffield Teesside is the moment of the most shark-jumping for the blues. A win which - combined with results elsewhere - demonstrates that they will be obliterated once the fighting starts properly. And yet for now, the mood in team Sunak is WE'RE ALRIGHT! WE'RE ALRIGHT!
If the Hall win is just a confection from CCHQ it has been quite clever as the Blackpool by election the Metro Mayors and the X00 lost Councillors has been lost in the fog of Khan's assumed defeat.
Rabbit and AndyJS have done their bit on here too.
Can we not attack other posters integrity please?
Rabbit and AndyJS were seeking value as punter, just like everyone else.
It wasn't a criticism. If indeed it does turn out to be a false flag, hats off to them. If Hall wins, kudos for reading the runes.
gabyhinsliff @gabyhinsliff · 11m The correlation between ‘going slightly mad reading London turnout data’ and ‘having been up half the night’ feels quite strong on election Twitter
I'm going to be so bummed if the early London results are easy Labour win. I don't care about the result, but the excitement should be kept going as long as possible.
Reform polled about 6.5% in the by-election in Bromley . Khan needs Reform to poll minimum 5% across London .
I don't think they'll get more than 3%.
I assume Reform types will see an opportunity to vote out Khan, so swing behind the Tory.
I can't even believe we are discussing a Khan loss, it seems so improbable. However, I haven't lived in that London since Ken was mayor, so no idea of things on the ground.
I notice no-one is starting any 'Andy Burnham has lost Manchester' rumours.
I’m hearing Andy Burnham has lost Manchester. You heard it here first.
This happens in every local election so apologies for asking but I can't remember the answer. Why do the BBC and Guardian websites have different numbers for the change of councillors?
Not all results due today are in and there are timing differences as to when they are shown.
Reform polled about 6.5% in the by-election in Bromley . Khan needs Reform to poll minimum 5% across London .
I don't think they'll get more than 3%.
I assume Reform types will see an opportunity to vote out Khan, so swing behind the Tory.
I can't even believe we are discussing a Khan loss, it seems so improbable. However, I haven't lived in that London since Ken was mayor, so no idea of things on the ground.
I notice no-one is starting any 'Andy Burnham has lost Manchester' rumours.
Khan is really not liked and not popular. I’ve said it on here a trillion times, and then lefty people say “oh look at the polls, they love him”
Final turnout table for London Mayoral with increases or decreases.
Those of us not in the know, which are the nore Tory friendly areas?
Bexley, Croydon, Havering, WC maybe, I would have said the SW at one point but I think that’s the closest thing the LDs have to a stronghold in London.
We are in the period of the phoney war. War has been declared, a massive barrage of shelling with the red scourge conquering new places. But the big battle lies ahead, and the armchair generals are poking a stick at the ashes and looking through their tinted/blinkered specs looking for guidance.
I think the Sunak presser in Sheffield Teesside is the moment of the most shark-jumping for the blues. A win which - combined with results elsewhere - demonstrates that they will be obliterated once the fighting starts properly. And yet for now, the mood in team Sunak is WE'RE ALRIGHT! WE'RE ALRIGHT!
If the Hall win is just a confection from CCHQ it has been quite clever as the Blackpool by election the Metro Mayors and the X00 lost Councillors has been lost in the fog of Khan's assumed defeat.
Rabbit and AndyJS have done their bit on here too.
I don't want Susan Hall or Sadiq Khan to be mayor. I wouldn't have voted for either of them if I lived in London. There's a difference between making predictions and what you want to happen.
Reform polled about 6.5% in the by-election in Bromley . Khan needs Reform to poll minimum 5% across London .
I don't think they'll get more than 3%.
I assume Reform types will see an opportunity to vote out Khan, so swing behind the Tory.
I can't even believe we are discussing a Khan loss, it seems so improbable. However, I haven't lived in that London since Ken was mayor, so no idea of things on the ground.
I notice no-one is starting any 'Andy Burnham has lost Manchester' rumours.
Khan is really not liked and not popular. I’ve said it on here a trillion times, and then lefty people say “oh look at the polls, they love him”
They don’t
No one on here says look at the polls they love him. You are making that up. Some people say look at the polls he is doing okay but even his supporters understand there is a big enthusiasm gap.
Reform polled about 6.5% in the by-election in Bromley . Khan needs Reform to poll minimum 5% across London .
I don't think they'll get more than 3%.
I assume Reform types will see an opportunity to vote out Khan, so swing behind the Tory.
I can't even believe we are discussing a Khan loss, it seems so improbable. However, I haven't lived in that London since Ken was mayor, so no idea of things on the ground.
I notice no-one is starting any 'Andy Burnham has lost Manchester' rumours.
I’m hearing Andy Burnham has lost Manchester. You heard it here first.
We are in the period of the phoney war. War has been declared, a massive barrage of shelling with the red scourge conquering new places. But the big battle lies ahead, and the armchair generals are poking a stick at the ashes and looking through their tinted/blinkered specs looking for guidance.
I think the Sunak presser in Sheffield Teesside is the moment of the most shark-jumping for the blues. A win which - combined with results elsewhere - demonstrates that they will be obliterated once the fighting starts properly. And yet for now, the mood in team Sunak is WE'RE ALRIGHT! WE'RE ALRIGHT!
If the Hall win is just a confection from CCHQ it has been quite clever as the Blackpool by election the Metro Mayors and the X00 lost Councillors has been lost in the fog of Khan's assumed defeat.
Rabbit and AndyJS have done their bit on here too.
I don't want Susan Hall or Sadiq Khan to be mayor. I wouldn't have voted for either of them if I lived in London. There's a difference between making predictions and what you want to happen.
Not for the partisan dunderheads there isn't.
And, even if there is, that doesn't invalidate a prediction that's evidence-based and backed with cash.
An awful lot hinges on how well voters in the RefCon and LLG blocks have adapted to the FPTP rule change.
Libdems and Greens arent going to particularly vote tactically for Khan. Third term, expected easy win, doesn't matter much. And Binface was standing too.
Reform polled about 6.5% in the by-election in Bromley . Khan needs Reform to poll minimum 5% across London .
I don't think they'll get more than 3%.
I assume Reform types will see an opportunity to vote out Khan, so swing behind the Tory.
I can't even believe we are discussing a Khan loss, it seems so improbable. However, I haven't lived in that London since Ken was mayor, so no idea of things on the ground.
I notice no-one is starting any 'Andy Burnham has lost Manchester' rumours.
I’m hearing Andy Burnham has lost Manchester. You heard it here first.
We are in the period of the phoney war. War has been declared, a massive barrage of shelling with the red scourge conquering new places. But the big battle lies ahead, and the armchair generals are poking a stick at the ashes and looking through their tinted/blinkered specs looking for guidance.
I think the Sunak presser in Sheffield Teesside is the moment of the most shark-jumping for the blues. A win which - combined with results elsewhere - demonstrates that they will be obliterated once the fighting starts properly. And yet for now, the mood in team Sunak is WE'RE ALRIGHT! WE'RE ALRIGHT!
If the Hall win is just a confection from CCHQ it has been quite clever as the Blackpool by election the Metro Mayors and the X00 lost Councillors has been lost in the fog of Khan's assumed defeat.
Rabbit and AndyJS have done their bit on here too.
Can we not attack other posters integrity please?
Rabbit and AndyJS were seeking value as punter, just like everyone else.
That isn't an attack. Its an observation. Rampers ramp. Besides, plenty of others - myself included - are quite excited by the idea of Trump Hall winning. I may be an amateur politician but its been a life-long hobby, and the funnier it gets the more I enjoy it.
An awful lot hinges on how well voters in the RefCon and LLG blocks have adapted to the FPTP rule change.
That makes more sense. It really shouldn't have been that much different to neighbouring Greenwich & Lewisham!
With that, then, you can say that there does seem to be a small differential change in turnout between Tory-leaning constituencies vs those that lean towards Labour.
But the effect is likely to be outweighed by the change in voting patterns caused by the move to FPTP.
This happens in every local election so apologies for asking but I can't remember the answer. Why do the BBC and Guardian websites have different numbers for the change of councillors?
Three reasons: 1) BBC update councillors won and lost while a council is declaring, Guardian only when a council has finished declaring.
2) When a council is changing the number of councillors BBC seem to adjust the starting point to the new number and Guardian doesn't so the BBC number should net to zero and Guardian's doesn't need to. Example Redditch, Guardian have Lab +9, Con -11, Grn +1, LD -1 for a net -2, BBC have that as Lab +10, Con -11, Grn +1 for a net zero.
3) Mid term defections and by election gains/losses aren't treated consistently by either of them. Example in Southampton, a councillor was originally elected as Labour but then expelled from the party. Labour won that seat back but lost two seats elsewhere. BBC call that as -2 (as Labour won the seat last time), but Guardian call it as -1 (as an Independent held the seat immediately pre-election).
If we had the voting figures for each from 2021, and assumed exactly the same voteshares today, we could quickly run an equivalent on those depressed turnout figures to show how close 2024 would be, where Khan would clearly drop beneath 40%.
We are in the period of the phoney war. War has been declared, a massive barrage of shelling with the red scourge conquering new places. But the big battle lies ahead, and the armchair generals are poking a stick at the ashes and looking through their tinted/blinkered specs looking for guidance.
I think the Sunak presser in Sheffield Teesside is the moment of the most shark-jumping for the blues. A win which - combined with results elsewhere - demonstrates that they will be obliterated once the fighting starts properly. And yet for now, the mood in team Sunak is WE'RE ALRIGHT! WE'RE ALRIGHT!
If the Hall win is just a confection from CCHQ it has been quite clever as the Blackpool by election the Metro Mayors and the X00 lost Councillors has been lost in the fog of Khan's assumed defeat.
Rabbit and AndyJS have done their bit on here too.
I don't want Susan Hall or Sadiq Khan to be mayor. I wouldn't have voted for either of them if I lived in London. There's a difference between making predictions and what you want to happen.
Not for the partisan dunderheads there isn't.
And, even if there is, that doesn't invalidate a prediction that's evidence-based and backed with cash.
Who are you calling partisan? Dunderhead , fair enough. I really have no particular interest in Khan, and under most circumstances I couldn't care less if the Tories win London. Except I do believe Susan Hall is such a malign individual she will take London back 50 years. Johnson didn't, Goldsmith and Bailey wouldn't have either.
Why are you so angry? I was making an observation you Muppet.
We are in the period of the phoney war. War has been declared, a massive barrage of shelling with the red scourge conquering new places. But the big battle lies ahead, and the armchair generals are poking a stick at the ashes and looking through their tinted/blinkered specs looking for guidance.
I think the Sunak presser in Sheffield Teesside is the moment of the most shark-jumping for the blues. A win which - combined with results elsewhere - demonstrates that they will be obliterated once the fighting starts properly. And yet for now, the mood in team Sunak is WE'RE ALRIGHT! WE'RE ALRIGHT!
If the Hall win is just a confection from CCHQ it has been quite clever as the Blackpool by election the Metro Mayors and the X00 lost Councillors has been lost in the fog of Khan's assumed defeat.
Rabbit and AndyJS have done their bit on here too.
Can we not attack other posters integrity please?
Rabbit and AndyJS were seeking value as punter, just like everyone else.
That isn't an attack. Its an observation. Rampers ramp. Besides, plenty of others - myself included - are quite excited by the idea of Trump Hall winning. I may be an amateur politician but its been a life-long hobby, and the funnier it gets the more I enjoy it.
Neither were ramping.
Give over. Politicos ramp. And when the party you like has been beaten to a pulp, of course you look for salvation. As I posted earlier, if Hall wins London then the slide towards Tory ELE only steepens. No more faff from non-asshole voters, if you want them out you have to ensure you vote effectively - or at all. Labour's big threat is apathy. A Hall win ends the risk of apathy.
Just popping in to see how my pre-election predictions are going:
Basildon – No Overall Control Epping Forest – Conservative Hold Fareham – Conservative Hold Gloucester – No Overall Control Harlow – Labour gain Havant – Conservative Hold Nuneaton & Bedworth – Labour gain Redditch – Labour gain
Okay on Basildon, Fareham, Nuneaton and Redditch. Harlow a Conservative hold by one seat and Havant the real surprise with ten Conservative losses pushing the council to NOC.
Given the importance of turnout in determining the result of a general election, I think any projection from local election results really should be treated as "just a bit of fun".
We are in the period of the phoney war. War has been declared, a massive barrage of shelling with the red scourge conquering new places. But the big battle lies ahead, and the armchair generals are poking a stick at the ashes and looking through their tinted/blinkered specs looking for guidance.
I think the Sunak presser in Sheffield Teesside is the moment of the most shark-jumping for the blues. A win which - combined with results elsewhere - demonstrates that they will be obliterated once the fighting starts properly. And yet for now, the mood in team Sunak is WE'RE ALRIGHT! WE'RE ALRIGHT!
If the Hall win is just a confection from CCHQ it has been quite clever as the Blackpool by election the Metro Mayors and the X00 lost Councillors has been lost in the fog of Khan's assumed defeat.
Rabbit and AndyJS have done their bit on here too.
Can we not attack other posters integrity please?
Rabbit and AndyJS were seeking value as punter, just like everyone else.
That isn't an attack. Its an observation. Rampers ramp. Besides, plenty of others - myself included - are quite excited by the idea of Trump Hall winning. I may be an amateur politician but its been a life-long hobby, and the funnier it gets the more I enjoy it.
Neither were ramping.
Hall done the Trumpette thing and declared victory soon as polls closed. But looking how Labour sources kept possibility of defeat open for most the last 24hrs only to close it off this evening, they have quite clearly been the main tease in this funny game.
Suella Watch: Looks good for the next Tory leader, while the rest of Havant has been poor for the Tories, the three wards that are part of Fareham and Waterlooville returned 9/9 Conservatives.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1h It’s incredible that some people are looking at the projected national vote share for the local elections and saying “this shows Labour is only 9% ahead. Much worse than the polls. The Tories can bridge that in a general election”. They’re not remotely comparable figures.
Whilst true, what we can compare them with is local elections before changes of government. So, in 1996:
Lab - 44% Con - 29% Lib Dem - 26%
And in 2009:
Con - 38% Lab - 23% Lib Dem - 28%
It's an interesting one. We have quite a lot of conflicting pieces of information. The by elections are very healthy for Labour, but the locals aren't so good. And, of course, there's Scotland which complicates matters.
I reckon Labour majority of 60, but wouldn't be surprised if they come up short.
All comparisons with history that far back don’t impress me much, with voting in local elections now much more fragmented, those historical comparisons mean diddly squat.
Even if you think the 38% achieved by Cameron isn't a fair comparison for Labour, the Tories beating the 23% (!!!) achieved by Gordon Brown should remind people that it's not over yet.
Just popping in to see how my pre-election predictions are going:
Basildon – No Overall Control Epping Forest – Conservative Hold Fareham – Conservative Hold Gloucester – No Overall Control Harlow – Labour gain Havant – Conservative Hold Nuneaton & Bedworth – Labour gain Redditch – Labour gain
Okay on Basildon, Fareham, Nuneaton and Redditch. Harlow a Conservative hold by one seat and Havant the real surprise with ten Conservative losses pushing the council to NOC.
We are in the period of the phoney war. War has been declared, a massive barrage of shelling with the red scourge conquering new places. But the big battle lies ahead, and the armchair generals are poking a stick at the ashes and looking through their tinted/blinkered specs looking for guidance.
I think the Sunak presser in Sheffield Teesside is the moment of the most shark-jumping for the blues. A win which - combined with results elsewhere - demonstrates that they will be obliterated once the fighting starts properly. And yet for now, the mood in team Sunak is WE'RE ALRIGHT! WE'RE ALRIGHT!
If the Hall win is just a confection from CCHQ it has been quite clever as the Blackpool by election the Metro Mayors and the X00 lost Councillors has been lost in the fog of Khan's assumed defeat.
Rabbit and AndyJS have done their bit on here too.
I strongly suspect the reason for CCHQ last night to leak suggestions of a Hall win on Saturday was to get through expected terrible results during Friday. There may or may not have been a basis to the rumour but it's irrelevant. Their job is to spin not to provide an information service (As do all the others obviously).
We are in the period of the phoney war. War has been declared, a massive barrage of shelling with the red scourge conquering new places. But the big battle lies ahead, and the armchair generals are poking a stick at the ashes and looking through their tinted/blinkered specs looking for guidance.
I think the Sunak presser in Sheffield Teesside is the moment of the most shark-jumping for the blues. A win which - combined with results elsewhere - demonstrates that they will be obliterated once the fighting starts properly. And yet for now, the mood in team Sunak is WE'RE ALRIGHT! WE'RE ALRIGHT!
If the Hall win is just a confection from CCHQ it has been quite clever as the Blackpool by election the Metro Mayors and the X00 lost Councillors has been lost in the fog of Khan's assumed defeat.
Rabbit and AndyJS have done their bit on here too.
I don't want Susan Hall or Sadiq Khan to be mayor. I wouldn't have voted for either of them if I lived in London. There's a difference between making predictions and what you want to happen.
Not for the partisan dunderheads there isn't.
And, even if there is, that doesn't invalidate a prediction that's evidence-based and backed with cash.
Who are you calling partisan? Dunderhead , fair enough. I really have no particular interest in Khan, and under most circumstances I couldn't care less if the Tories win London. Except I do believe Susan Hall is such a malign individual she will take London back 50 years. Johnson didn't, Goldsmith and Bailey wouldn't have either.
Why are you so angry? I was making an observation you Muppet.
Quite entertaining the court jesters now the one melting down.
Labour got to be kicking themselves in Havant, topping the poll in 4 wards but only standing a full slate in 1 of them, leaving the 3rd seat open for a Green and two Reform.
A real close finish in that Ward in 2022 - the Conservatives won two of the three seats, Labour the other but the vote split Conservative 34%, Labour 33%, LD 30% and Green 3%. This time a poor result for Labour but very close between the Conservatives and Lib Dems.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1h It’s incredible that some people are looking at the projected national vote share for the local elections and saying “this shows Labour is only 9% ahead. Much worse than the polls. The Tories can bridge that in a general election”. They’re not remotely comparable figures.
Whilst true, what we can compare them with is local elections before changes of government. So, in 1996:
Lab - 44% Con - 29% Lib Dem - 26%
And in 2009:
Con - 38% Lab - 23% Lib Dem - 28%
It's an interesting one. We have quite a lot of conflicting pieces of information. The by elections are very healthy for Labour, but the locals aren't so good. And, of course, there's Scotland which complicates matters.
I reckon Labour majority of 60, but wouldn't be surprised if they come up short.
All comparisons with history that far back don’t impress me much, with voting in local elections now much more fragmented, those historical comparisons mean diddly squat.
Even if you think the 38% achieved by Cameron isn't a fair comparison for Labour, the Tories beating the 23% (!!!) achieved by Gordon Brown should remind people that it's not over yet.
Ed Miliband got 38% recently as 2012, still the local elections are so much more fragmented in 2024. As indeed those smorgasbord National polls!
Labour got to be kicking themselves in Havant, topping the poll in 4 wards but only standing a full slate in 1 of them, leaving the 3rd seat open for a Green and two Reform.
I did point out the absence of enough opposition candidates might help the Conservatives but I thought the Conservatives would keep control but I was wrong.
Do you know what, for once I think you're probably right. I think he'll come home with a result that we'd call "fine" in any other year.
But I'm not going to roast any other posters who think otherwise on the basis that no one knows what's going on and the people confidently predicting this or that have a 50% chance of looking stupid tomorrow.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1h It’s incredible that some people are looking at the projected national vote share for the local elections and saying “this shows Labour is only 9% ahead. Much worse than the polls. The Tories can bridge that in a general election”. They’re not remotely comparable figures.
Whilst true, what we can compare them with is local elections before changes of government. So, in 1996:
Lab - 44% Con - 29% Lib Dem - 26%
And in 2009:
Con - 38% Lab - 23% Lib Dem - 28%
It's an interesting one. We have quite a lot of conflicting pieces of information. The by elections are very healthy for Labour, but the locals aren't so good. And, of course, there's Scotland which complicates matters.
I reckon Labour majority of 60, but wouldn't be surprised if they come up short.
All comparisons with history that far back don’t impress me much, with voting in local elections now much more fragmented, those historical comparisons mean diddly squat.
Even if you think the 38% achieved by Cameron isn't a fair comparison for Labour, the Tories beating the 23% (!!!) achieved by Gordon Brown should remind people that it's not over yet.
Ed Miliband got 38% recently as 2012, still the local elections are so much more fragmented in 2024. As indeed those smorgasbord National polls!
And Ed Miliband got 31% in 2014 with the Tories on 29%. Looking back, it was blindingly obvious that the Tories were going to win in 2015.
An awful lot hinges on how well voters in the RefCon and LLG blocks have adapted to the FPTP rule change.
Libdems and Greens arent going to particularly vote tactically for Khan. Third term, expected easy win, doesn't matter much. And Binface was standing too.
Do you know what, for once I think you're probably right. I think he'll come home with a result that we'd call "fine" in any other year.
But I'm not going to roast any other posters who think otherwise on the basis that no one knows what's going on and the people confidently predicting this or that have a 50% chance of looking stupid tomorrow.
We are in the period of the phoney war. War has been declared, a massive barrage of shelling with the red scourge conquering new places. But the big battle lies ahead, and the armchair generals are poking a stick at the ashes and looking through their tinted/blinkered specs looking for guidance.
I think the Sunak presser in Sheffield Teesside is the moment of the most shark-jumping for the blues. A win which - combined with results elsewhere - demonstrates that they will be obliterated once the fighting starts properly. And yet for now, the mood in team Sunak is WE'RE ALRIGHT! WE'RE ALRIGHT!
If the Hall win is just a confection from CCHQ it has been quite clever as the Blackpool by election the Metro Mayors and the X00 lost Councillors has been lost in the fog of Khan's assumed defeat.
Rabbit and AndyJS have done their bit on here too.
Can we not attack other posters integrity please?
Rabbit and AndyJS were seeking value as punter, just like everyone else.
That isn't an attack. Its an observation. Rampers ramp. Besides, plenty of others - myself included - are quite excited by the idea of Trump Hall winning. I may be an amateur politician but its been a life-long hobby, and the funnier it gets the more I enjoy it.
Neither were ramping.
Give over. Politicos ramp. And when the party you like has been beaten to a pulp, of course you look for salvation. As I posted earlier, if Hall wins London then the slide towards Tory ELE only steepens. No more faff from non-asshole voters, if you want them out you have to ensure you vote effectively - or at all. Labour's big threat is apathy. A Hall win ends the risk of apathy.
Labour got to be kicking themselves in Havant, topping the poll in 4 wards but only standing a full slate in 1 of them, leaving the 3rd seat open for a Green and two Reform.
Not many people want to be councillor in their 20s and 30s so they might have struggled to find candidates. It's an old man's game these days. Pay is crap, zero prestige, little chance of changing anything with the current funding. Unless you're a weirdo desperate to be an MP there's not much to attract you to the role.
It will be interesting to see PBs reach. Now the PB Brains Trust are falling behind a Khan win will Hall quickly drift on Beffair?
Note that the quality of the PB brains trust starts to decline evenings from around 7pm, especially weekends. No-one has every quite worked out why....
Final turnout table for London Mayoral with increases or decreases.
Those of us not in the know, which are the nore Tory friendly areas?
Bexley, Croydon, Havering, WC maybe, I would have said the SW at one point but I think that’s the closest thing the LDs have to a stronghold in London.
Iirc LDs have basically all of the seats (90%) in Richmond & Merton, and a majority in Sutton.
Do you know what, for once I think you're probably right. I think he'll come home with a result that we'd call "fine" in any other year.
But I'm not going to roast any other posters who think otherwise on the basis that no one knows what's going on and the people confidently predicting this or that have a 50% chance of looking stupid tomorrow.
What's the sweet spot for this great metropolis? Khan but humbled?
Because even accepting that Khan is at best adequate and at worst mediocre, it's hard to see that Mayor Hall (who can't even look after her own travel pass) improves on that. More likely, she makes it all a lot worse.
It will be interesting to see PBs reach. Now the PB Brains Trust are falling behind a Khan win will Hall quickly drift on Beffair?
Note that the quality of the PB brains trust starts to decline evenings from around 7pm, especially weekends. No-one has every quite worked out why....
Shuddap!
Some of us are trying to make money here. This is better than PoliticalBettingCoin. Sooooo maaaaany ruuuubes
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1h It’s incredible that some people are looking at the projected national vote share for the local elections and saying “this shows Labour is only 9% ahead. Much worse than the polls. The Tories can bridge that in a general election”. They’re not remotely comparable figures.
Whilst true, what we can compare them with is local elections before changes of government. So, in 1996:
Lab - 44% Con - 29% Lib Dem - 26%
And in 2009:
Con - 38% Lab - 23% Lib Dem - 28%
It's an interesting one. We have quite a lot of conflicting pieces of information. The by elections are very healthy for Labour, but the locals aren't so good. And, of course, there's Scotland which complicates matters.
I reckon Labour majority of 60, but wouldn't be surprised if they come up short.
All comparisons with history that far back don’t impress me much, with voting in local elections now much more fragmented, those historical comparisons mean diddly squat.
Even if you think the 38% achieved by Cameron isn't a fair comparison for Labour, the Tories beating the 23% (!!!) achieved by Gordon Brown should remind people that it's not over yet.
Ed Miliband got 38% recently as 2012, still the local elections are so much more fragmented in 2024. As indeed those smorgasbord National polls!
And Ed Miliband got 31% in 2014 with the Tories on 29%. Looking back, it was blindingly obvious that the Tories were going to win in 2015.
How then do we explain that Tuesday halfway through the campaign, 3 pollsters gave Milliband leads? Polling really can mislead sometimes.
Suella Watch: Looks good for the next Tory leader, while the rest of Havant has been poor for the Tories, the three wards that are part of Fareham and Waterlooville returned 9/9 Conservatives.
Labour got to be kicking themselves in Havant, topping the poll in 4 wards but only standing a full slate in 1 of them, leaving the 3rd seat open for a Green and two Reform.
Not many people want to be councillor in their 20s and 30s so they might have struggled to find candidates. It's an old man's game these days. Pay is crap, zero prestige, little chance of changing anything with the current funding. Unless you're a weirdo desperate to be an MP there's not much to attract you to the role.
They can come with a pretty sizable allowance and you can be a very bad councillor and do no work and still get at least that four year pot of money.
Of course, to their credit that is not a driver for most, many don't even know what allowances their council provides when standing. In my experience parties have made a drive towards younger candidates. Many won't last more than a term, but you'll get a few who then stick it out - those 30 year veterans in their 60s started out young!
Labour got to be kicking themselves in Havant, topping the poll in 4 wards but only standing a full slate in 1 of them, leaving the 3rd seat open for a Green and two Reform.
Not many people want to be councillor in their 20s and 30s so they might have struggled to find candidates. It's an old man's game these days. Pay is crap, zero prestige, little chance of changing anything with the current funding. Unless you're a weirdo desperate to be an MP there's not much to attract you to the role.
Not sure that is entirely true, a hard working local councillor is often very respected, sometimes even more than the local MP if not too partisan and they can sort out problems with pavements, planning, anti social behaviour etc.
Though yes the allowances aren't much given the hours done, so it tends to be mainly the retired who do it and use the allowance to top up their pension. Those working full time and with families find it difficult to get the time to be a councillor so younger councillors tend to be single, have their own business or work part time or be full time politicians looking to stand for parliament
We are in the period of the phoney war. War has been declared, a massive barrage of shelling with the red scourge conquering new places. But the big battle lies ahead, and the armchair generals are poking a stick at the ashes and looking through their tinted/blinkered specs looking for guidance.
I think the Sunak presser in Sheffield Teesside is the moment of the most shark-jumping for the blues. A win which - combined with results elsewhere - demonstrates that they will be obliterated once the fighting starts properly. And yet for now, the mood in team Sunak is WE'RE ALRIGHT! WE'RE ALRIGHT!
If the Hall win is just a confection from CCHQ it has been quite clever as the Blackpool by election the Metro Mayors and the X00 lost Councillors has been lost in the fog of Khan's assumed defeat.
Rabbit and AndyJS have done their bit on here too.
I strongly suspect the reason for CCHQ last night to leak suggestions of a Hall win on Saturday was to get through expected terrible results during Friday. There may or may not have been a basis to the rumour but it's irrelevant. Their job is to spin not to provide an information service (As do all the others obviously).
Suella Watch: Looks good for the next Tory leader, while the rest of Havant has been poor for the Tories, the three wards that are part of Fareham and Waterlooville returned 9/9 Conservatives.
Fareham is not part of Havant.
I know, but the new constituency of Fareham and Waterlooville contains seven wards from Fareham Borough, three from Havant Borough and two from City of Winchester.
I see Labour came second in the Devon and Cornwall PCC election. That's doesn't bode well for a Lib Dem revival down there.
EDIT: but, interestingly, the Lib Dems came second in Gloucestershire, which surprises me.
I'm expecting Labour second in Wiltshire (if not better - if they don't win it this time they never will). They came third marginally behind the LDs in 2021, dropped to four in the by-election for the role a few months later as the Indy candidate (who is standing again) got a boost, but this time there are no Wiltshire Council elections and another Labour surge in Swindon Borough Council.
Comments
1. Reality & Tory internal polling will push them right. Which makes them consolidate the ReFUK vote but lose everyone else
2. The economic "recovery" like the "tax cut" do not exist in reality. The more people are told they are better off - and they are worse off - the less they will want to reward the party who has screwed them and is lying to their face
3. Hall defeating Khaaaaaaaan would be a shock to the system for the GTTO crowd (which is 80% of the electorate). BJO and the cranks will be delighted, everyone else will focus hard on tactical voting and turnout.
It is extraordinary that the PO should have employed such a man in a senior legal role. It speaks volumes about the generally dysfunctional nature of the organisation and its apparent lack of concern for plain, simple honesty or justice.
There is a good case for banging up every single Board member for the 20 year period in question, every single senior executive, and every sod involved in the persecution of the Subpostmasters, right down to the pond life that called themselves Investigators. The legal firms which advised the PO should naturally be included.
It won't happen, but if the Police do start feeling collars, they could do no better than start with Mr Jamail Singh.
TrumpHall winning. I may be an amateur politician but its been a life-long hobby, and the funnier it gets the more I enjoy it.Lab - 44%
Con - 29%
Lib Dem - 26%
And in 2009:
Con - 38%
Lab - 23%
Lib Dem - 28%
It's an interesting one. We have quite a lot of conflicting pieces of information. The by elections are very healthy for Labour, but the locals aren't so good. And, of course, there's Scotland which complicates matters.
I reckon Labour majority of 60, but wouldn't be surprised if they come up short.
all-out election 27/36 declared
Conservatives 13 (-10)
Labour 6 (+4)
Liberal Democrats 4 (+3)
Green 3 (+2)
Reform UK 1 (+1)
Natasha Clark
@NatashaC
Labour sources dampening talk of a Susan Hall win, saying the fundamentals are good and no votes have yet been counted. But they also say they've been saying all along it'll be closely fought....
https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1786456912315257307
I can't even believe we are discussing a Khan loss, it seems so improbable. However, I haven't lived in that London since Ken was mayor, so no idea of things on the ground.
I notice no-one is starting any 'Andy Burnham has lost Manchester' rumours.
@gabyhinsliff
·
11m
The correlation between ‘going slightly mad reading London turnout data’ and ‘having been up half the night’ feels quite strong on election Twitter
They don’t
https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/election-progress/verification-and-turnout-data
An awful lot hinges on how well voters in the RefCon and LLG blocks have adapted to the FPTP rule change.
Probably their only win unless they pick up a list seat in London
MexPex mind games are sooo beneath me. 😌
Hamas gains, alas.
Our ward has stayed red, with a thumping margin over the Tories.
Problem for Keir
And, even if there is, that doesn't invalidate a prediction that's evidence-based and backed with cash.
With that, then, you can say that there does seem to be a small differential change in turnout between Tory-leaning constituencies vs those that lean towards Labour.
But the effect is likely to be outweighed by the change in voting patterns caused by the move to FPTP.
1) BBC update councillors won and lost while a council is declaring, Guardian only when a council has finished declaring.
2) When a council is changing the number of councillors BBC seem to adjust the starting point to the new number and Guardian doesn't so the BBC number should net to zero and Guardian's doesn't need to.
Example Redditch, Guardian have Lab +9, Con -11, Grn +1, LD -1 for a net -2, BBC have that as Lab +10, Con -11, Grn +1 for a net zero.
3) Mid term defections and by election gains/losses aren't treated consistently by either of them.
Example in Southampton, a councillor was originally elected as Labour but then expelled from the party. Labour won that seat back but lost two seats elsewhere. BBC call that as -2 (as Labour won the seat last time), but Guardian call it as -1 (as an Independent held the seat immediately pre-election).
https://twitter.com/CGray8567/status/1786461018874339444
I don't have them or the time, though, sadly.
Why are you so angry? I was making an observation you Muppet.
Just popping in to see how my pre-election predictions are going:
Basildon – No Overall Control
Epping Forest – Conservative Hold
Fareham – Conservative Hold
Gloucester – No Overall Control
Harlow – Labour gain
Havant – Conservative Hold
Nuneaton & Bedworth – Labour gain
Redditch – Labour gain
Okay on Basildon, Fareham, Nuneaton and Redditch. Harlow a Conservative hold by one seat and Havant the real surprise with ten Conservative losses pushing the council to NOC.
Still waiting on Gloucester and Epping Forest.
Meanwhile the LibDem/Tory councillor battle goes to the wire - neck and neck with ten councils to declare.
Where’s Anabob? Hitting the bottle? 🤭
They’ll be T R U S S E S galore tonight.
If the plan was some sort of shabby understanding in the LLG block, it didn't work.
EDIT: but, interestingly, the Lib Dems came second in Gloucestershire, which surprises me.
But I'm not going to roast any other posters who think otherwise on the basis that no one knows what's going on and the people confidently predicting this or that have a 50% chance of looking stupid tomorrow.
Tut
My record on here on that goes back 18 years.
We should lead opinion and not follow it. And that should be evidence based.
Because even accepting that Khan is at best adequate and at worst mediocre, it's hard to see that Mayor Hall (who can't even look after her own travel pass) improves on that. More likely, she makes it all a lot worse.
Ok...
The full data has been released by
@londonelects
and I've done some digging.
In areas the Tories won, the turnout is up 6.5k votes.
In areas the Labour party won, the turnout is down ~42k votes.
Only a small swing is required for Khan to lose.
Some of us are trying to make money here. This is better than PoliticalBettingCoin. Sooooo maaaaany ruuuubes
If he loses I will certainly post a certain Gif from Star Trek 2. Probably if he wins TBF.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/local-election-results-2024-london-mayor-council-labour-b2538971.html
The Tories seem utterly broken privately
Of course, to their credit that is not a driver for most, many don't even know what allowances their council provides when standing. In my experience parties have made a drive towards younger candidates. Many won't last more than a term, but you'll get a few who then stick it out - those 30 year veterans in their 60s started out young!
Though yes the allowances aren't much given the hours done, so it tends to be mainly the retired who do it and use the allowance to top up their pension. Those working full time and with families find it difficult to get the time to be a councillor so younger councillors tend to be single, have their own business or work part time or be full time politicians looking to stand for parliament
Then one using the same technology to prove that Hall must win?
*Invest Now To Get In At The Ground Floor.