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About that inevitable Labour landslide – politicalbetting.com
About that inevitable Labour landslide – politicalbetting.com
Sky News projection from Prof Michael Thrasher: Labour on course to be largest party at general election – short of overall majority https://t.co/h4LJGxaR0c
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I very, very much doubt that. It seems to me that the Labour gains from the Tories are being heavily understated because they are losing quite a lot of council seats to their left, specifically in Muslim areas. Their net gains are therefore less than they might be. Some, such as Sky, are suggesting that the Tories are losing a lot to "others" but I think this is wrong. It is Labour who are losing to others and then gaining big time from the Tories.
The bad news for the Tories is that this means that Labour gains in areas where there are competitive seats are much greater than it appears and there is a real risk that there is a significant increase in the efficiency of the Labour vote with them doing much less well in ultra safe seats but still winning.
I wonder how well Starmer and Khan will sleep tonight?
Where's the other 10 seats?
You just do not make the direct gains that Labour is making from the Tories and end up with a hung Parliament.
You know, I've always had a sneaking respect for being the largest party at general election – short of overall majority
https://twitter.com/ImMakingItUpPBComeOnSeriously/status/07700900461
And to get those seats, they only need to poll AS IF they have 17% nationally on those few places. The rest don’t matter
"Labour wins Cannock Chase"
*autocorrect tried to make that "torture".
Apart from that, all they need is something like 45% of the votes in the right seats, and they end up with 100 MPs or so.....
That seems to be their current strategy.
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1786434620856136097
I think he's right.
It's The Phantom Menace (alone) for me tonight!
BUT at least YOU didn't make rude noises re: Hyndburn and it's "bi-third" local council election gender-bending!
Let me guess - your other half goes out for her romantic dinner on Tuesdays? Truly the key to a lasting relationship.
Turnout figures from the London mayoralty: I think Susan Hall really could do it, you know: londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/elect…
He’s wobbly is all. I’m still pretty certain Khan will win. However it is fun to speculate
16/39 declared
Liberal Democrats 12 (+5)
Conservative 2 (-1)
Independent 1 (-3)
Labour 1 (-1)
Another complication , many of these constituencies stretch from inner London to the outer suburbs . It would help if we got turnout for the boroughs .
George Galloway
Green in Brighton Pavilion
But I'm stumped for the next 60.
This figure assumes also that votes for the nationalist parties in Scotland and Wales, places where no local elections took place, are unchanged from the previous election.
That’s a rather large assumption.
I hope you all took advantage.
However some of those LDs will still have reservations about the Labour left even if comfortable with Starmer, so if Sunak and the Tories can play on that it could yet be close
1. Puts the fear of God into non-arse voters. You actually do have to vote, and you can't faff about with peripheral nit-picking or you get the Tories
2. Hall is frootloop and will show the very worst of the Tories who will ramp her lunacy along with the "we must head off Farage" narrative
3. Khan is a player. Take him out and he's no longer a player
LD has won more councillors than Con today.
But PCCs - 33 contests in England - generally each is basically a county. 21 declared so far:
Con 12
Lab 9
LD 0
No one likes us, we don’t care!
I'm not against votes at 16, but I think this kind of change to voting should be done by consensus as far as possible, rather than whoever is in power making whatever changes they think will give them an advantage.
And the vast majority of money on Khan was traded at between 1.03 and 1.06.
If Khan loses, nobody should ever say again that anything is certain in politics.
Literally nobody seriously thought Khan could lose before the last 24 hours.
Those that last presumably are the ones that coincidentally happen to be well received.
On votes at 16 I'm not in favour, but I think it is going to happen so I'm already mentally prepared for it.
Especially the more simple-minded who don't understand the concept of value losers.