I was repeatedly assured on here that ULEZ was an extremely popular policy.
ULEZ is an interesting one. It has majority support, not massively so, but clear majority. But electorally it was always risky as the support is not evenly weighted.
The majority who benefit, benefit marginally, whereas the smaller groups of people who either had to pay extra, have stopped driving into certain areas or feared further anti-car changes (parking permits, 20mph, no car zones, confusing signage all part of it) see it as central to their politics.
I suspect it has cost Khan the election, even though it does have majority support.
For a lesson for the GE, VAT on private schools is a similar issue, it has majority support, is a good policy, but bad politics.
BBC reporter on Radio 4 PM show said that while they think the London result will be closer than the polls suggest, nobody in Labour or the Tories thinks Khan won't win. Make of that what you will.
If she manages that the Tories are going to forget the thrashing they just had, and indulge in several weeks of cheery complacency. They'll also decide that the way to win the election is to major on all those winning Susan Hall policies. Maybe Sunak will even be tempted to capitalise on his stunning mayoral success (not just London, Teesside too remember) and call a summer General Election.
Possibly if Hall narrowly wins (I'm not predicting anything), Labour might blame voter ID rules, and there'll be a push from some in the next Labour government to try and 'balance' things up by putting their thumb on the scales in the other direction.
Votes at 16 incoming….
Boundaries decided by population rather than electoral register...
I'm not against votes at 16, but I think this kind of change to voting should be done by consensus as far as possible, rather than whoever is in power making whatever changes they think will give them an advantage.
And bus passes no longer accepted. Only ID available to all age groups should be used.
BBC reporter on Radio 4 PM show said that while they think the London result will be closer than the polls suggest, nobody in Labour or the Tories thinks Khan won't win. Make of that what you will.
I make of it where we started 24 hours ago - Khan is so far ahead in polling that it is very very easy for things to be closer than that, whilst still winning relatively comfortably.
Three reasons why it would benefit Starmer for Hall to defeat Khan
1. Puts the fear of God into non-arse voters. You actually do have to vote, and you can't faff about with peripheral nit-picking or you get the Tories 2. Hall is frootloop and will show the very worst of the Tories who will ramp her lunacy along with the "we must head off Farage" narrative 3. Khan is a player. Take him out and he's no longer a player
4. The inevitable fulsome and obnoxious congratulations she'll get from Trump
Sir Keir is ready for anything.
David Lammy is meeting Republicans and Democrats in the US. Isn’t that what politicians do? Is there anything else? This is hardly the crime of the century- like looking at someone’s LinkedIn profile for example.
But PCCs - 33 contests in England - generally each is basically a county. 21 declared so far:
Con 12 Lab 9 LD 0
FPTP gets more unfair, the larger the seats
Were the Lib Dems really motivated to fight hard in the PCC elections? I suspect not.
Perhaps not, but it's hard to look at the results of the Cambridgeshire PCC vote (Con 37.4%, Lab 35.3%, LD 25.4%) and not suspect the outcome would have been different under the previous system...
FWIW, in the interests of balance, the YouGov poll for Tees Valley mayoral proved fairly accurate, and only very slightly undercooked the Tories/overcooked Labour.
If she manages that the Tories are going to forget the thrashing they just had, and indulge in several weeks of cheery complacency. They'll also decide that the way to win the election is to major on all those winning Susan Hall policies. Maybe Sunak will even be tempted to capitalise on his stunning mayoral success (not just London, Teesside too remember) and call a summer General Election.
Possibly if Hall narrowly wins (I'm not predicting anything), Labour might blame voter ID rules, and there'll be a push from some in the next Labour government to try and 'balance' things up by putting their thumb on the scales in the other direction.
Votes at 16 incoming….
Boundaries decided by population rather than electoral register...
I'm not against votes at 16, but I think this kind of change to voting should be done by consensus as far as possible, rather than whoever is in power making whatever changes they think will give them an advantage.
And bus passes no longer accepted. Only ID available to all age groups should be used.
Not logical to ban bus passes and accept driving licences, though.
Not getting at you - just shows how trick y this is.
I was repeatedly assured on here that ULEZ was an extremely popular policy.
ULEZ is an interesting one. It has majority support, not massively so, but clear majority. But electorally it was always risky as the support is not evenly weighted.
The majority who benefit, benefit marginally, whereas the smaller groups of people who either had to pay extra, have stopped driving into certain areas or feared further anti-car changes (parking permits, 20mph, no car zones, confusing signage all part of it) see it as central to their politics.
I suspect it has cost Khan the election, even though it does have majority support.
For a lesson for the GE, VAT on private schools is a similar issue, it has majority support, is a good policy, but bad politics.
The issue with ULEZ is that it is part of a stack of policies that are actually quite regressive in nature. If you are driving a 100K SUV EV round London, it's freebies all the way. If you are driving a small ICE hatchback, not so much.
If she manages that the Tories are going to forget the thrashing they just had, and indulge in several weeks of cheery complacency. They'll also decide that the way to win the election is to major on all those winning Susan Hall policies. Maybe Sunak will even be tempted to capitalise on his stunning mayoral success (not just London, Teesside too remember) and call a summer General Election.
Thing is if Hall did beat Khan it would be such an upset to the narrative and the expectation of pundits that you would have to wonder if there really was a way for the Tories to win a general election from their current position.
And the vast majority of money on Khan was traded at between 1.03 and 1.06.
If Khan loses, nobody should ever say again that anything is certain in politics.
Literally nobody seriously thought Khan could lose before the last 24 hours.
It would be a perfect storm . Low turnout in inner London , change of voting system . The Lib Dems and Greens by not splitting their votes and can’t be bothered Labour voters will learn a harsh lesson . They were possibly handmaidens to a Trump climate change denier.
Khan's not entitled to anyone's vote and it's completely fair for people that Starmer and co have actively discouraged from voting Labour not to vote for Labour.
In fact it'll be fun to see where this magic money tree Hall is that will fund her manifesto.
BBC reporter on Radio 4 PM show said that while they think the London result will be closer than the polls suggest, nobody in Labour or the Tories thinks Khan won't win. Make of that what you will.
The only way Sunak wins is if Reform poll at minimum 5% and some Libs and Greens tactically vote. The turnout figures aren’t good for Sunak .
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1h It’s incredible that some people are looking at the projected national vote share for the local elections and saying “this shows Labour is only 9% ahead. Much worse than the polls. The Tories can bridge that in a general election”. They’re not remotely comparable figures.
This feels like bullshit to me. From a guy with 2.7k followers … hmmm
However it’s entertaining bullshit so:
🚨NEW: I am told that Starmer is set to blame Wes Streeting if Sadiq Khan loses the mayoral election. Starmer said to be furious about his tweet calling Tories 'white supremacists' and thinks it helped get Susan Hall's vote out.
Denial, anger, negotiation, depression, acceptance. This denial stage is taking long for the tories to get through .... the results today, actual results, say that the tories are dog meat no matter what this headline chaser says ....
I find the stories that Tory Members would prefer Farage to be a little odd. Not that the members would not want to be more Faragey in general, at various points that's been clearly true. But it is kind of the opposite of the issue Corbyn had, where lots of non-Labour people backed him (Labour people did too, at the start, but clearly not as passionately), whereas Tory Members seem very keen on someone who has not been a Tory in decades, which goes beyond just liking his policies more.
Three reasons why it would benefit Starmer for Hall to defeat Khan
1. Puts the fear of God into non-arse voters. You actually do have to vote, and you can't faff about with peripheral nit-picking or you get the Tories 2. Hall is frootloop and will show the very worst of the Tories who will ramp her lunacy along with the "we must head off Farage" narrative 3. Khan is a player. Take him out and he's no longer a player
4. The inevitable fulsome and obnoxious congratulations she'll get from Trump
Sir Keir is ready for anything.
David Lammy is meeting Republicans and Democrats in the US. Isn’t that what politicians do? Is there anything else? This is hardly the crime of the century- like looking at someone’s LinkedIn profile for example.
‘It’s all about ME!’
No - this site is really all about Leon. The pathetic "gotchas" you seem to think you excel in won't displace that much as you would like.
Say hi to the Paranoid Anglophobe Tourguide for me
This feels like bullshit to me. From a guy with 2.7k followers … hmmm
However it’s entertaining bullshit so:
🚨NEW: I am told that Starmer is set to blame Wes Streeting if Sadiq Khan loses the mayoral election. Starmer said to be furious about his tweet calling Tories 'white supremacists' and thinks it helped get Susan Hall's vote out.
This feels like bullshit to me. From a guy with 2.7k followers … hmmm
However it’s entertaining bullshit so:
🚨NEW: I am told that Starmer is set to blame Wes Streeting if Sadiq Khan loses the mayoral election. Starmer said to be furious about his tweet calling Tories 'white supremacists' and thinks it helped get Susan Hall's vote out.
I was repeatedly assured on here that ULEZ was an extremely popular policy.
ULEZ is an interesting one. It has majority support, not massively so, but clear majority. But electorally it was always risky as the support is not evenly weighted.
The majority who benefit, benefit marginally, whereas the smaller groups of people who either had to pay extra, have stopped driving into certain areas or feared further anti-car changes (parking permits, 20mph, no car zones, confusing signage all part of it) see it as central to their politics.
I suspect it has cost Khan the election, even though it does have majority support.
For a lesson for the GE, VAT on private schools is a similar issue, it has majority support, is a good policy, but bad politics.
The issue with ULEZ is that it is part of a stack of policies that are actually quite regressive in nature. If you are driving a 100K SUV EV round London, it's freebies all the way. If you are driving a small ICE hatchback, not so much.
Much more could also have been done to create a smoother transition and reduce both the impact and associated fear.
This feels like bullshit to me. From a guy with 2.7k followers … hmmm
However it’s entertaining bullshit so:
🚨NEW: I am told that Starmer is set to blame Wes Streeting if Sadiq Khan loses the mayoral election. Starmer said to be furious about his tweet calling Tories 'white supremacists' and thinks it helped get Susan Hall's vote out.
If she manages that the Tories are going to forget the thrashing they just had, and indulge in several weeks of cheery complacency. They'll also decide that the way to win the election is to major on all those winning Susan Hall policies. Maybe Sunak will even be tempted to capitalise on his stunning mayoral success (not just London, Teesside too remember) and call a summer General Election.
Possibly if Hall narrowly wins (I'm not predicting anything), Labour might blame voter ID rules, and there'll be a push from some in the next Labour government to try and 'balance' things up by putting their thumb on the scales in the other direction.
Votes at 16 incoming….
Boundaries decided by population rather than electoral register...
I'm not against votes at 16, but I think this kind of change to voting should be done by consensus as far as possible, rather than whoever is in power making whatever changes they think will give them an advantage.
And bus passes no longer accepted. Only ID available to all age groups should be used.
Not logical to ban bus passes and accept driving licences, though.
Not getting at you - just shows how trick y this is.
Oh indeed - but there is no age limit on driving licence at either end (unless voting reduced to 16). I was only suggesting it as a way to tilt the balance. Though actually thinking about it perhaps I am in favour of the principle that only valid ID that is available to all should be used.
I was repeatedly assured on here that ULEZ was an extremely popular policy.
ULEZ is an interesting one. It has majority support, not massively so, but clear majority. But electorally it was always risky as the support is not evenly weighted.
The majority who benefit, benefit marginally, whereas the smaller groups of people who either had to pay extra, have stopped driving into certain areas or feared further anti-car changes (parking permits, 20mph, no car zones, confusing signage all part of it) see it as central to their politics.
I suspect it has cost Khan the election, even though it does have majority support.
For a lesson for the GE, VAT on private schools is a similar issue, it has majority support, is a good policy, but bad politics.
The issue with ULEZ is that it is part of a stack of policies that are actually quite regressive in nature. If you are driving a 100K SUV EV round London, it's freebies all the way. If you are driving a small ICE hatchback, not so much.
Much more could also have been done to create a smoother transition and reduce both the impact and associated fear.
I would have designed a taxation system that takes into account weight *and* emissions. So people in 0.9L hatchbacks get a thumbs up.
This feels like bullshit to me. From a guy with 2.7k followers … hmmm
However it’s entertaining bullshit so:
🚨NEW: I am told that Starmer is set to blame Wes Streeting if Sadiq Khan loses the mayoral election. Starmer said to be furious about his tweet calling Tories 'white supremacists' and thinks it helped get Susan Hall's vote out.
"Liz Truss @trussliz This is disgusting from @wesstreetin. If this is the future of the Labour Party, they are in deep trouble. Quote Wes Streeting MP @wesstreeting · May 1 A win for Susan Hall and the Conservatives is a win for racists, white supremacists and Islamophobes the world over. Susan Hall’s campaign has been fought from the gutter with dangerous and divisive politics. "
This feels like bullshit to me. From a guy with 2.7k followers … hmmm
However it’s entertaining bullshit so:
🚨NEW: I am told that Starmer is set to blame Wes Streeting if Sadiq Khan loses the mayoral election. Starmer said to be furious about his tweet calling Tories 'white supremacists' and thinks it helped get Susan Hall's vote out.
Three reasons why it would benefit Starmer for Hall to defeat Khan
1. Puts the fear of God into non-arse voters. You actually do have to vote, and you can't faff about with peripheral nit-picking or you get the Tories 2. Hall is frootloop and will show the very worst of the Tories who will ramp her lunacy along with the "we must head off Farage" narrative 3. Khan is a player. Take him out and he's no longer a player
4. The inevitable fulsome and obnoxious congratulations she'll get from Trump
Sir Keir is ready for anything.
David Lammy is meeting Republicans and Democrats in the US. Isn’t that what politicians do? Is there anything else? This is hardly the crime of the century- like looking at someone’s LinkedIn profile for example.
‘It’s all about ME!’
No - this site is really all about Leon. The pathetic "gotchas" you seem to think you excel in won't displace that much as you would like.
Say high to the Paranoid Anglophobe Tourguide for me
Hey, I think looking at a stranger’s Linkedin profile for pathetic "gotchas" is weird, and the fact you rather than I keeps referring to it is great for added weirdness.
I see you're one of those sensitive PB types that has adopted a private profile. Undestandable if you're a bit stalky yourself that you might be paranoid.
The issue with ULEZ is that it is part of a stack of policies that are actually quite regressive in nature. If you are driving a 100K SUV EV round London, it's freebies all the way. If you are driving a small ICE hatchback, not so much.
Free parking in some boroughs and free charging at work if your employer likes the green credentials of paying out for that perk. Which is great if you can afford an EV.
There are lots of environmental policies that come with rebates and grants that are in practice highly regressive. I understand the idea of priming the pump, but they invariably look and act like handouts to the already well off.
And the vast majority of money on Khan was traded at between 1.03 and 1.06.
If Khan loses, nobody should ever say again that anything is certain in politics.
Literally nobody seriously thought Khan could lose before the last 24 hours.
Maybe I am not serious, but I have thought it for months. Stephen Bush at the FT - who knows Labour and London as well as anyone - did too.
I initially got involved as a potential Corbyn run would have made it very hard for Sadiq, so seemed like a free angle. I kinda gave up after the 22 point poll lead but thought it back in play with the more recent slightly closer poll.
Think people outside London or even those exclusively in naice and central London misunderstand the dynamics here and especially the impact in a low turnout election where tens of thousands matter.
I was repeatedly assured on here that ULEZ was an extremely popular policy.
ULEZ is an interesting one. It has majority support, not massively so, but clear majority. But electorally it was always risky as the support is not evenly weighted.
The majority who benefit, benefit marginally, whereas the smaller groups of people who either had to pay extra, have stopped driving into certain areas or feared further anti-car changes (parking permits, 20mph, no car zones, confusing signage all part of it) see it as central to their politics.
I suspect it has cost Khan the election, even though it does have majority support.
For a lesson for the GE, VAT on private schools is a similar issue, it has majority support, is a good policy, but bad politics.
The issue with ULEZ is that it is part of a stack of policies that are actually quite regressive in nature. If you are driving a 100K SUV EV round London, it's freebies all the way. If you are driving a small ICE hatchback, not so much.
Much more could also have been done to create a smoother transition and reduce both the impact and associated fear.
I would have designed a taxation system that takes into account weight *and* emissions. So people in 0.9L hatchbacks get a thumbs up.
The issue with ULEZ is that it is part of a stack of policies that are actually quite regressive in nature. If you are driving a 100K SUV EV round London, it's freebies all the way. If you are driving a small ICE hatchback, not so much.
Free parking in some boroughs and free charging at work if your employer likes the green credentials of paying out for that perk. Which is great if you can afford an EV.
There are lots of environmental policies that come with rebates and grants that are in practice highly regressive. I understand the idea of priming the pump, but they invariably look and act like handouts to the already well off.
Also "free parking" at charging spots through out London.
Pump priming yes. But it needs to move with the flow. There is no need for any subsidy for £50k+ EVs any more - that market is rolling.
I was repeatedly assured on here that ULEZ was an extremely popular policy.
ULEZ is an interesting one. It has majority support, not massively so, but clear majority. But electorally it was always risky as the support is not evenly weighted.
The majority who benefit, benefit marginally, whereas the smaller groups of people who either had to pay extra, have stopped driving into certain areas or feared further anti-car changes (parking permits, 20mph, no car zones, confusing signage all part of it) see it as central to their politics.
I suspect it has cost Khan the election, even though it does have majority support.
For a lesson for the GE, VAT on private schools is a similar issue, it has majority support, is a good policy, but bad politics.
The issue with ULEZ is that it is part of a stack of policies that are actually quite regressive in nature. If you are driving a 100K SUV EV round London, it's freebies all the way. If you are driving a small ICE hatchback, not so much.
Much more could also have been done to create a smoother transition and reduce both the impact and associated fear.
I would have designed a taxation system that takes into account weight *and* emissions. So people in 0.9L hatchbacks get a thumbs up.
Such cars for locals used to get exemptions from congestion charge ten years ago.
Looking back, the fact Streeting wrote and posted that desperate and ugly tweet implies that even a few days ago Labour sensed trouble in London, despite the polls
That’s a risky tweet designed to shore up the BME vote, especially Muslims disenchanted by Gaza
And the vast majority of money on Khan was traded at between 1.03 and 1.06.
If Khan loses, nobody should ever say again that anything is certain in politics.
Literally nobody seriously thought Khan could lose before the last 24 hours.
Maybe I am not serious, but I have thought it for months. Stephen Bush at the FT - who knows Labour and London as well as anyone - did too.
I initially got involved as a potential Corbyn run would have made it very hard for Sadiq, so seemed like a free angle. I kinda gave up after the 22 point poll lead but thought it back in play with the more recent slightly closer poll.
Think people outside London or even those exclusively in naice and central London misunderstand the dynamics here and especially the impact in a low turnout election where tens of thousands matter.
On just turnout Hall could win . It really depends now what happened to the Lib Dem and Green votes . Khan needs some tactical voting from them and Reform to do okay .
I very, very much doubt that. It seems to me that the Labour gains from the Tories are being heavily understated because they are losing quite a lot of council seats to their left, specifically in Muslim areas. Their net gains are therefore less than they might be. Some, such as Sky, are suggesting that the Tories are losing a lot to "others" but I think this is wrong. It is Labour who are losing to others and then gaining big time from the Tories.
The bad news for the Tories is that this means that Labour gains in areas where there are competitive seats are much greater than it appears and there is a real risk that there is a significant increase in the efficiency of the Labour vote with them doing much less well in ultra safe seats but still winning.
If the war is over before the GE then many of the Hamas-curious should return to Labour.
lol, Hamas-curious. Do they turn up to Israeli festivals with water pistols and get to see if they like it and can take the next step? Or do they make one of their gay friends stand blindfolded on the edge of a building and push him off without him realising he’s just a floor above a big crash-mat to get the feels.
Sandy's IDF-curious.
When I was 10 my father and a couple of his friends went to Israel for a jolly and they bought us (their sons who were all friends as well) mini IDF uniforms. They were absolutely perfect IdF uniforms for kids with the badges, sew on patches etc. it’s like getting a football strip as a kid and following that team for the rest of your life.
We can only be glad that they did not buy you the Waffen-SS Action Man then...
I think even in the days of gollywogs and Love Thy Neighbour an SS action man would have been a step too far, just honest Landsers who would never be involved in atrocities, oh no, definitely not.
I very, very much doubt that. It seems to me that the Labour gains from the Tories are being heavily understated because they are losing quite a lot of council seats to their left, specifically in Muslim areas. Their net gains are therefore less than they might be. Some, such as Sky, are suggesting that the Tories are losing a lot to "others" but I think this is wrong. It is Labour who are losing to others and then gaining big time from the Tories.
The bad news for the Tories is that this means that Labour gains in areas where there are competitive seats are much greater than it appears and there is a real risk that there is a significant increase in the efficiency of the Labour vote with them doing much less well in ultra safe seats but still winning.
If the war is over before the GE then many of the Hamas-curious should return to Labour.
lol, Hamas-curious. Do they turn up to Israeli festivals with water pistols and get to see if they like it and can take the next step? Or do they make one of their gay friends stand blindfolded on the edge of a building and push him off without him realising he’s just a floor above a big crash-mat to get the feels.
Sandy's IDF-curious.
When I was 10 my father and a couple of his friends went to Israel for a jolly and they bought us (their sons who were all friends as well) mini IDF uniforms. They were absolutely perfect IdF uniforms for kids with the badges, sew on patches etc. it’s like getting a football strip as a kid and following that team for the rest of your life.
We can only be glad that they did not buy you the Waffen-SS Action Man then...
I think even in the days of gollywogs and Love Thy Neighbour an SS action man would have been a step too far, just honest Landsers who would never be involved in atrocities, oh no, definitely not.
I came across this the other day when seeing what the Tank Museum had for sale, so can say that the range isn't what it used to be in our younger days. ISTR pickelhaube-clad Huns from the Great War, and so forth, never mind your actual chap with the eagle and swastika badge on the chest.
Mind, some of even the modern range would suit some of us to a T - especially the officer cadet and action pilot.
This feels like bullshit to me. From a guy with 2.7k followers … hmmm
However it’s entertaining bullshit so:
🚨NEW: I am told that Starmer is set to blame Wes Streeting if Sadiq Khan loses the mayoral election. Starmer said to be furious about his tweet calling Tories 'white supremacists' and thinks it helped get Susan Hall's vote out.
Edit to add: that was indeed a stupid stupid remark from Streeting
Nah that sounds like bullshit, only the terminally online saw that stuff. Normal people don't even know who Wes Streeting is, I barely know and I follow politics to some degree (though have disengaged for my own mental state for the past year).
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1h It’s incredible that some people are looking at the projected national vote share for the local elections and saying “this shows Labour is only 9% ahead. Much worse than the polls. The Tories can bridge that in a general election”. They’re not remotely comparable figures.
This was reassuring until I saw it was from Dan Hodges...
Three reasons why it would benefit Starmer for Hall to defeat Khan
1. Puts the fear of God into non-arse voters. You actually do have to vote, and you can't faff about with peripheral nit-picking or you get the Tories 2. Hall is frootloop and will show the very worst of the Tories who will ramp her lunacy along with the "we must head off Farage" narrative 3. Khan is a player. Take him out and he's no longer a player
4. The inevitable fulsome and obnoxious congratulations she'll get from Trump
Sir Keir is ready for anything.
David Lammy is meeting Republicans and Democrats in the US. Isn’t that what politicians do? Is there anything else? This is hardly the crime of the century- like looking at someone’s LinkedIn profile for example.
‘It’s all about ME!’
No - this site is really all about Leon. The pathetic "gotchas" you seem to think you excel in won't displace that much as you would like.
Say high to the Paranoid Anglophobe Tourguide for me
Hey, I think looking at a stranger’s Linkedin profile for pathetic "gotchas" is weird, and the fact you rather than I keeps referring to it is great for added weirdness.
I see your one of those sensitive PB types that has adopted a private profile. Undestandable if you're a bit stalky yourself that you might be paranoid.
FFS. On the contrary. It's was public LinkedIn profile you moron. That's how the fuckwit in Gothenburg to tell I looked at it. If I gave a fuck I would have set it to private so he couldn't see I had looked at. Or logged out and looked at it anonymously. That's how it works. People can tell who looked at your profile so you can network with them. Which is why generally sane people are happy if you do so. Except Disco Stu who has this weird idea that a LinkedIn profile is supposed to be anonymous or invisible to English people.
It's not the fact I looked at his profile and he knows. I knew that would happen. Its the fact you use the words "stalky" and "research" as if I was inquiring deeply into his background by underhand means by doing something so drearily commonplace. I knew he could see I looked, which is why I worked out instantly what your dumb reference to "research" was. I have seen many on here have looked at my profile, I've more than left enough breadcrumbs on here to work out who I am.
I call you out on it because accusing someone of being a stalker is a pretty big deal, don't you think?
But PCCs - 33 contests in England - generally each is basically a county. 21 declared so far:
Con 12 Lab 9 LD 0
FPTP gets more unfair, the larger the seats
Were the Lib Dems really motivated to fight hard in the PCC elections? I suspect not.
Perhaps not, but it's hard to look at the results of the Cambridgeshire PCC vote (Con 37.4%, Lab 35.3%, LD 25.4%) and not suspect the outcome would have been different under the previous system...
The LibDems may have a chance in the Hertfordshire PCC election. Counting tomorrow.
James Ball @jamesrbuk · 1h I am extremely sceptical of that Sky News projection as it looks like a PNS-type variable plugged into a seat calculator. Maybe there’s something much cleverer under the hood, but these results do not otherwise suggest a hung parliament.
Three reasons why it would benefit Starmer for Hall to defeat Khan
1. Puts the fear of God into non-arse voters. You actually do have to vote, and you can't faff about with peripheral nit-picking or you get the Tories 2. Hall is frootloop and will show the very worst of the Tories who will ramp her lunacy along with the "we must head off Farage" narrative 3. Khan is a player. Take him out and he's no longer a player
4. The inevitable fulsome and obnoxious congratulations she'll get from Trump
Sir Keir is ready for anything.
David Lammy is meeting Republicans and Democrats in the US. Isn’t that what politicians do? Is there anything else? This is hardly the crime of the century- like looking at someone’s LinkedIn profile for example.
‘It’s all about ME!’
No - this site is really all about Leon. The pathetic "gotchas" you seem to think you excel in won't displace that much as you would like.
Say high to the Paranoid Anglophobe Tourguide for me
Hey, I think looking at a stranger’s Linkedin profile for pathetic "gotchas" is weird, and the fact you rather than I keeps referring to it is great for added weirdness.
I see your one of those sensitive PB types that has adopted a private profile. Undestandable if you're a bit stalky yourself that you might be paranoid.
FFS. On the contrary. It's was public LinkedIn profile you moron. That's how the fuckwit in Gothenburg to tell I looked at it. If I gave a fuck I would have set it to private so he couldn't see I had looked at. Or logged out and looked at it anonymously. That's how it works. People can tell who looked at your profile so you can network with them. Which is why generally sane people are happy if you do so. Except Disco Stu who has this weird idea that a LinkedIn profile is supposed to be anonymous or invisible to English people.
It's not the fact I looked at his profile and he knows. I knew that would happen. Its the fact you use the words "stalky" and "research" as if I was inquiring deeply into his background by underhand means by doing something so drearily commonplace. I knew he could see I looked, which is why I worked out instantly what your dumb reference to "research" was. I have seen many on here have looked at my profile, I've more than left enough breadcrumbs on here to work out who I am.
I call you out on it because accusing someone of being a stalker is a pretty big deal, don't you think?
Golly, a full on diatribe! You're on the verge of appearing a bit unstable. Stop jumping on my posts and jog on would be for the best I feel.
Looking back, the fact Streeting wrote and posted that desperate and ugly tweet implies that even a few days ago Labour sensed trouble in London, despite the polls
That’s a risky tweet designed to shore up the BME vote, especially Muslims disenchanted by Gaza
Streeting tweeted that he was having cancer treatment whilst the Tories partied in No10 during lockdown... but he got the years mixed up and was therefore completely wrong The tweets still up, though, despite him knowing full well it is lies.
Three reasons why it would benefit Starmer for Hall to defeat Khan
1. Puts the fear of God into non-arse voters. You actually do have to vote, and you can't faff about with peripheral nit-picking or you get the Tories 2. Hall is frootloop and will show the very worst of the Tories who will ramp her lunacy along with the "we must head off Farage" narrative 3. Khan is a player. Take him out and he's no longer a player
4. The inevitable fulsome and obnoxious congratulations she'll get from Trump
Sir Keir is ready for anything.
David Lammy is meeting Republicans and Democrats in the US. Isn’t that what politicians do? Is there anything else? This is hardly the crime of the century- like looking at someone’s LinkedIn profile for example.
‘It’s all about ME!’
No - this site is really all about Leon. The pathetic "gotchas" you seem to think you excel in won't displace that much as you would like.
Say high to the Paranoid Anglophobe Tourguide for me
Hey, I think looking at a stranger’s Linkedin profile for pathetic "gotchas" is weird, and the fact you rather than I keeps referring to it is great for added weirdness.
I see your one of those sensitive PB types that has adopted a private profile. Undestandable if you're a bit stalky yourself that you might be paranoid.
FFS. On the contrary. It's was public LinkedIn profile you moron. That's how the fuckwit in Gothenburg to tell I looked at it. If I gave a fuck I would have set it to private so he couldn't see I had looked at. Or logged out and looked at it anonymously. That's how it works. People can tell who looked at your profile so you can network with them. Which is why generally sane people are happy if you do so. Except Disco Stu who has this weird idea that a LinkedIn profile is supposed to be anonymous or invisible to English people.
It's not the fact I looked at his profile and he knows. I knew that would happen. Its the fact you use the words "stalky" and "research" as if I was inquiring deeply into his background by underhand means by doing something so drearily commonplace. I knew he could see I looked, which is why I worked out instantly what your dumb reference to "research" was. I have seen many on here have looked at my profile, I've more than left enough breadcrumbs on here to work out who I am.
I call you out on it because accusing someone of being a stalker is a pretty big deal, don't you think?
Golly, a full on diatribe! You're on the verge of appearing a bit unstable. Stop jumping on my posts and jog on would be for the best I feel.
I very rarely comment on your posts. Your weird obsession with me and your assumptions as to my habits makes you think I do. There's a difference. Seek help.
These post office lawyers and managers really do overstretch the 'I'm incompetent, not a liar' defence I see.
Former senior Post Office lawyer Jarnail Singh has denied that he knew about bugs in the Horizon system while sub-postmaster prosecutions continued for three years.
However, lead counsel for the Horizon inquiry Jason Beer accused Mr Singh of telling a "big fat lie".
Mr Singh was forwarded an email on the eve of the 2010 trial of Seema Misra, a sub-postmistress who was sent to jail while pregnant.
It identified bugs in the Horizon system that should have been disclosed in Mrs Misra's trial.
Mr Singh denied having read the email, despite being presented with evidence that he saved a copy to his hard drive and printed it off...
When asked whether it was saved on the hard drive of his computer, Mr Singh said: "I don't even know what you're talking about.
"I don't know how these things worked."
"You don't know how to save a document?" Mr Beer asked.
"I didn't know how to do it," Mr Singh responded, saying he wouldn't have had the technical knowledge either to do that or to understand the document itself.
We are in the period of the phoney war. War has been declared, a massive barrage of shelling with the red scourge conquering new places. But the big battle lies ahead, and the armchair generals are poking a stick at the ashes and looking through their tinted/blinkered specs looking for guidance.
I think the Sunak presser in Sheffield Teesside is the moment of the most shark-jumping for the blues. A win which - combined with results elsewhere - demonstrates that they will be obliterated once the fighting starts properly. And yet for now, the mood in team Sunak is WE'RE ALRIGHT! WE'RE ALRIGHT!
Three reasons why it would benefit Starmer for Hall to defeat Khan
1. Puts the fear of God into non-arse voters. You actually do have to vote, and you can't faff about with peripheral nit-picking or you get the Tories 2. Hall is frootloop and will show the very worst of the Tories who will ramp her lunacy along with the "we must head off Farage" narrative 3. Khan is a player. Take him out and he's no longer a player
4. The inevitable fulsome and obnoxious congratulations she'll get from Trump
Sir Keir is ready for anything.
David Lammy is meeting Republicans and Democrats in the US. Isn’t that what politicians do? Is there anything else? This is hardly the crime of the century- like looking at someone’s LinkedIn profile for example.
‘It’s all about ME!’
No - this site is really all about Leon. The pathetic "gotchas" you seem to think you excel in won't displace that much as you would like.
Say high to the Paranoid Anglophobe Tourguide for me
Hey, I think looking at a stranger’s Linkedin profile for pathetic "gotchas" is weird, and the fact you rather than I keeps referring to it is great for added weirdness.
I see your one of those sensitive PB types that has adopted a private profile. Undestandable if you're a bit stalky yourself that you might be paranoid.
FFS. On the contrary. It's was public LinkedIn profile you moron. That's how the fuckwit in Gothenburg to tell I looked at it. If I gave a fuck I would have set it to private so he couldn't see I had looked at. Or logged out and looked at it anonymously. That's how it works. People can tell who looked at your profile so you can network with them. Which is why generally sane people are happy if you do so. Except Disco Stu who has this weird idea that a LinkedIn profile is supposed to be anonymous or invisible to English people.
It's not the fact I looked at his profile and he knows. I knew that would happen. Its the fact you use the words "stalky" and "research" as if I was inquiring deeply into his background by underhand means by doing something so drearily commonplace. I knew he could see I looked, which is why I worked out instantly what your dumb reference to "research" was. I have seen many on here have looked at my profile, I've more than left enough breadcrumbs on here to work out who I am.
I call you out on it because accusing someone of being a stalker is a pretty big deal, don't you think?
Golly, a full on diatribe! You're on the verge of appearing a bit unstable. Stop jumping on my posts and jog on would be for the best I feel.
I very rarely comment on your posts. Your weird obsession with me and your assumptions as to my habits makes you think I do. There's a difference. Seek help.
You reply out of the blue to my posts that are not adressed to you, recently with your crap Linkedin patter. I think I know where the weird obsession is.
I was repeatedly assured on here that ULEZ was an extremely popular policy.
ULEZ is an interesting one. It has majority support, not massively so, but clear majority. But electorally it was always risky as the support is not evenly weighted.
The majority who benefit, benefit marginally, whereas the smaller groups of people who either had to pay extra, have stopped driving into certain areas or feared further anti-car changes (parking permits, 20mph, no car zones, confusing signage all part of it) see it as central to their politics.
I suspect it has cost Khan the election, even though it does have majority support.
For a lesson for the GE, VAT on private schools is a similar issue, it has majority support, is a good policy, but bad politics.
The issue with ULEZ is that it is part of a stack of policies that are actually quite regressive in nature. If you are driving a 100K SUV EV round London, it's freebies all the way. If you are driving a small ICE hatchback, not so much.
Quite. It has also been stated that car tyres produce vastly more particulates than exhaust emissions, especially heavy cars:
These post office lawyers and managers really do overstretch the 'I'm incompetent, not a liar' defence I see.
Former senior Post Office lawyer Jarnail Singh has denied that he knew about bugs in the Horizon system while sub-postmaster prosecutions continued for three years.
However, lead counsel for the Horizon inquiry Jason Beer accused Mr Singh of telling a "big fat lie".
Mr Singh was forwarded an email on the eve of the 2010 trial of Seema Misra, a sub-postmistress who was sent to jail while pregnant.
It identified bugs in the Horizon system that should have been disclosed in Mrs Misra's trial.
Mr Singh denied having read the email, despite being presented with evidence that he saved a copy to his hard drive and printed it off...
When asked whether it was saved on the hard drive of his computer, Mr Singh said: "I don't even know what you're talking about.
"I don't know how these things worked."
"You don't know how to save a document?" Mr Beer asked.
"I didn't know how to do it," Mr Singh responded, saying he wouldn't have had the technical knowledge either to do that or to understand the document itself.
Looking back, the fact Streeting wrote and posted that desperate and ugly tweet implies that even a few days ago Labour sensed trouble in London, despite the polls
That’s a risky tweet designed to shore up the BME vote, especially Muslims disenchanted by Gaza
Streeting tweeted that he was having cancer treatment whilst the Tories partied in No10 during lockdown... but he got the years mixed up and was therefore completely wrong The tweets still up, though, despite him knowing full well it is lies.
But he is the future apparently
He’s probably got as many enemies in his own party as in other parties and when he makes a giant hubris-filled fuck up and is waiting for support it will be tumbleweed.
Remember the pandemic? That weird virus from Asia? Most of us have forgotten, thank God
But quietly, in recent weeks, yet more evidence has emerged that it came from the lab, which anyone with a brain knew anyway. Here is arguably THE expert on Covid. Ralph Baric
🧵Fascinating origin-of-Covid testimony from renowned coronavirus expert Ralph Baric. “The single biggest issue to jump from the pages of Baric’s testimony is his persistent concern over unsafe research practices at the WIV,” writes @katherineeban
Baric recounts what he says were the responses to his efforts to flag troublingly lax laboratory safety at the Wuhan lab + Chinese coronavirus labs generally, including how they were waved away by the WIV's US funder.“
Reform polled about 6.5% in the by-election in Bromley . Khan needs Reform to poll minimum 5% across London .
Calm down luv.
I’m still calling it a double digit win for Khan. The Savanta around 10% is probably the winning score, with a bit of MOE.
Outer London has higher turn out than inner London? So what? That doesn’t disprove the 22% lead in Yougov, as outer London is still packed with intelligent people to be polled, who understood what they would be getting with Hall as the total unelectable wingnut she is.
Even if Tories had put up a stronger candidate than Hall, I still think they would have lost to Khan. When it gets tight, incumbency brings a special bonus to these mayoralty contests.
It’s likely becuase so many voters still know diddly squat about Hall and what she stands for, that’s she’s over performed here and only loses by about 10 - like a paper candidate magnet for Khan dissatisfaction, but only for those who haven’t been paying proper attention what they’re actually voting for.
I was repeatedly assured on here that ULEZ was an extremely popular policy.
ULEZ is an interesting one. It has majority support, not massively so, but clear majority. But electorally it was always risky as the support is not evenly weighted.
The majority who benefit, benefit marginally, whereas the smaller groups of people who either had to pay extra, have stopped driving into certain areas or feared further anti-car changes (parking permits, 20mph, no car zones, confusing signage all part of it) see it as central to their politics.
I suspect it has cost Khan the election, even though it does have majority support.
For a lesson for the GE, VAT on private schools is a similar issue, it has majority support, is a good policy, but bad politics.
The issue with ULEZ is that it is part of a stack of policies that are actually quite regressive in nature. If you are driving a 100K SUV EV round London, it's freebies all the way. If you are driving a small ICE hatchback, not so much.
Quite. It has also been stated that car tyres produce vastly more particulates than exhaust emissions, especially heavy cars:
These post office lawyers and managers really do overstretch the 'I'm incompetent, not a liar' defence I see.
Former senior Post Office lawyer Jarnail Singh has denied that he knew about bugs in the Horizon system while sub-postmaster prosecutions continued for three years.
However, lead counsel for the Horizon inquiry Jason Beer accused Mr Singh of telling a "big fat lie".
Mr Singh was forwarded an email on the eve of the 2010 trial of Seema Misra, a sub-postmistress who was sent to jail while pregnant.
It identified bugs in the Horizon system that should have been disclosed in Mrs Misra's trial.
Mr Singh denied having read the email, despite being presented with evidence that he saved a copy to his hard drive and printed it off...
When asked whether it was saved on the hard drive of his computer, Mr Singh said: "I don't even know what you're talking about.
"I don't know how these things worked."
"You don't know how to save a document?" Mr Beer asked.
"I didn't know how to do it," Mr Singh responded, saying he wouldn't have had the technical knowledge either to do that or to understand the document itself.
What ever happened to honesty and integrity. And he's a lawyer, for goodness sake.
No one likes admitting they cocked up for reasons other than honest incompetence, but when there's evidence as overwhelming you will have a lot more credibility by having a damascene conversion about how you see actions than stubbornly insisting black is white and you are just an goofball. Especially when they are high powered individuals who probably have spent careers insisting how brilliant they are.
In Canalside, Woking, Faisal Mumtaz has been elected, representing the Liberal Democrats. This is a gain [from Labour] for the Lib Dems here in Canalside.
The result in the ward (three-member, elected every three out of four years) in 2023 was:
Labour - 1,112 Lib Dem - 542 Conservative - 448
This year:
Labour - 1,195 Lib Dem - 1,224 Conservative - 402
For the Lib Dems to gain Woking, they could do with being able to squeeze the Labour vote in Sheerwater. An impressive gain for the Lib Dems, but it looks like they did it by adding 8pp or so to the turnout. Whether they can repeat the trick at the General Election, I don't know. It's hard to know what turnout is like in Sheerwater for the GE.
Looking back, the fact Streeting wrote and posted that desperate and ugly tweet implies that even a few days ago Labour sensed trouble in London, despite the polls
That’s a risky tweet designed to shore up the BME vote, especially Muslims disenchanted by Gaza
Streeting tweeted that he was having cancer treatment whilst the Tories partied in No10 during lockdown... but he got the years mixed up and was therefore completely wrong The tweets still up, though, despite him knowing full well it is lies.
But he is the future apparently
Labour's desperate slavering to get into power and get a piece of the action is distasteful.
I was repeatedly assured on here that ULEZ was an extremely popular policy.
ULEZ is an interesting one. It has majority support, not massively so, but clear majority. But electorally it was always risky as the support is not evenly weighted.
The majority who benefit, benefit marginally, whereas the smaller groups of people who either had to pay extra, have stopped driving into certain areas or feared further anti-car changes (parking permits, 20mph, no car zones, confusing signage all part of it) see it as central to their politics.
I suspect it has cost Khan the election, even though it does have majority support.
For a lesson for the GE, VAT on private schools is a similar issue, it has majority support, is a good policy, but bad politics.
The issue with ULEZ is that it is part of a stack of policies that are actually quite regressive in nature. If you are driving a 100K SUV EV round London, it's freebies all the way. If you are driving a small ICE hatchback, not so much.
Quite. It has also been stated that car tyres produce vastly more particulates than exhaust emissions, especially heavy cars:
So possibly driving around a posh EV SUV isn't helping anyone's respiratory problems.
The heaviest cars remain the biggest cars - Range Rover, Q7, X7 etc. None of which are EVs. I only changed the tyres on my Model Y on 31k miles because I didn't rotate them. Had I done so I would have got another 5k out of them easily, perhaps out to 40k.
That is not a usage profile of a vehicle shedding chunks of rubber under its massive weight...
Reform polled about 6.5% in the by-election in Bromley . Khan needs Reform to poll minimum 5% across London .
Calm down luv.
I’m still calling it a double digit win for Khan. The Survation around 10% is probably the winning score, with a bit of MOE.
Outer London has higher turn out than inner London? So what? That doesn’t disprove the 22% lead in Yougov, as outer London is still packed with intelligent people to be polled, who understood what they would be getting with Hall as the total unelectable wingnut she is.
Even if Tories had put up a stronger candidate than Hall, I still think they would have lost to Khan. When it gets tight, incumbency brings a special bonus to these mayoralty contests.
It’s likely becuase so many voters still know diddly squat about Hall and what she stands for, that’s she’s over performed here and only loses by about 10 - like a paper candidate magnet for Khan dissatisfaction, but only for those who haven’t been paying proper attention what they’re actually voting for.
We’re going in different directions! I’m much less certain of a Khan win now !
These post office lawyers and managers really do overstretch the 'I'm incompetent, not a liar' defence I see.
Former senior Post Office lawyer Jarnail Singh has denied that he knew about bugs in the Horizon system while sub-postmaster prosecutions continued for three years.
However, lead counsel for the Horizon inquiry Jason Beer accused Mr Singh of telling a "big fat lie".
Mr Singh was forwarded an email on the eve of the 2010 trial of Seema Misra, a sub-postmistress who was sent to jail while pregnant.
It identified bugs in the Horizon system that should have been disclosed in Mrs Misra's trial.
Mr Singh denied having read the email, despite being presented with evidence that he saved a copy to his hard drive and printed it off...
When asked whether it was saved on the hard drive of his computer, Mr Singh said: "I don't even know what you're talking about.
"I don't know how these things worked."
"You don't know how to save a document?" Mr Beer asked.
"I didn't know how to do it," Mr Singh responded, saying he wouldn't have had the technical knowledge either to do that or to understand the document itself.
Don't forget about the Japanese technology minister who didn't know how to use a computer because he always got his secretaries to do everything for him. People like that do exist, believe it or not.
Looking back, the fact Streeting wrote and posted that desperate and ugly tweet implies that even a few days ago Labour sensed trouble in London, despite the polls
That’s a risky tweet designed to shore up the BME vote, especially Muslims disenchanted by Gaza
Streeting tweeted that he was having cancer treatment whilst the Tories partied in No10 during lockdown... but he got the years mixed up and was therefore completely wrong The tweets still up, though, despite him knowing full well it is lies.
But he is the future apparently
Labour's desperate slavering to get into power and get a piece of the action is distasteful.
If they didn't care about getting into power they'd have joined the LDs, so ambition is going to lead some astray from time to time.
We are in the period of the phoney war. War has been declared, a massive barrage of shelling with the red scourge conquering new places. But the big battle lies ahead, and the armchair generals are poking a stick at the ashes and looking through their tinted/blinkered specs looking for guidance.
I think the Sunak presser in Sheffield Teesside is the moment of the most shark-jumping for the blues. A win which - combined with results elsewhere - demonstrates that they will be obliterated once the fighting starts properly. And yet for now, the mood in team Sunak is WE'RE ALRIGHT! WE'RE ALRIGHT!
If the Hall win is just a confection from CCHQ it has been quite clever as the Blackpool by election the Metro Mayors and the X00 lost Councillors has been lost in the fog of Khan's assumed defeat.
Rabbit and AndyJS have done their bit on here too.
These post office lawyers and managers really do overstretch the 'I'm incompetent, not a liar' defence I see.
Former senior Post Office lawyer Jarnail Singh has denied that he knew about bugs in the Horizon system while sub-postmaster prosecutions continued for three years.
However, lead counsel for the Horizon inquiry Jason Beer accused Mr Singh of telling a "big fat lie".
Mr Singh was forwarded an email on the eve of the 2010 trial of Seema Misra, a sub-postmistress who was sent to jail while pregnant.
It identified bugs in the Horizon system that should have been disclosed in Mrs Misra's trial.
Mr Singh denied having read the email, despite being presented with evidence that he saved a copy to his hard drive and printed it off...
When asked whether it was saved on the hard drive of his computer, Mr Singh said: "I don't even know what you're talking about.
"I don't know how these things worked."
"You don't know how to save a document?" Mr Beer asked.
"I didn't know how to do it," Mr Singh responded, saying he wouldn't have had the technical knowledge either to do that or to understand the document itself.
Don't forget about the Japanese technology minister who didn't know how to use a computer because he always got his secretaries to do everything for him.
Ah yes, Junichiro Rees-Moggasaki I believe it was.
We are in the period of the phoney war. War has been declared, a massive barrage of shelling with the red scourge conquering new places. But the big battle lies ahead, and the armchair generals are poking a stick at the ashes and looking through their tinted/blinkered specs looking for guidance.
I think the Sunak presser in Sheffield Teesside is the moment of the most shark-jumping for the blues. A win which - combined with results elsewhere - demonstrates that they will be obliterated once the fighting starts properly. And yet for now, the mood in team Sunak is WE'RE ALRIGHT! WE'RE ALRIGHT!
You are right in essence however there is always the important of “the big mo”. Remember there is still a lot of favourable media for the Tories, I noticed a bit of a sea change re Rwanda and immigration the last week and if the papers were flooded with a positive (although bs) spin for the blues, especially if Hall wins by some miracle, news, a few flights get off to Rwanda, the economy is looking better (again , in the press), and they can get a really good campaign on Starmer being “Sir Two-face”.
think a time magazine type cover split with him smiling with a quote on one side and the other him frowning with his flip flop and the sub-header of “which lie are you believing?” Then there is potentially a lot to play for. Not a Tory win but an uncomfortable close win for Labour where they are led by the man who lost a huge huge lead.
Reform polled about 6.5% in the by-election in Bromley . Khan needs Reform to poll minimum 5% across London .
Calm down luv.
I’m still calling it a double digit win for Khan. The Survation around 10% is probably the winning score, with a bit of MOE.
Outer London has higher turn out than inner London? So what? That doesn’t disprove the 22% lead in Yougov, as outer London is still packed with intelligent people to be polled, who understood what they would be getting with Hall as the total unelectable wingnut she is.
Even if Tories had put up a stronger candidate than Hall, I still think they would have lost to Khan. When it gets tight, incumbency brings a special bonus to these mayoralty contests.
It’s likely becuase so many voters still know diddly squat about Hall and what she stands for, that’s she’s over performed here and only loses by about 10 - like a paper candidate magnet for Khan dissatisfaction, but only for those who haven’t been paying proper attention what they’re actually voting for.
We’re going in different directions! I’m much less certain of a Khan win now !
We’re not going in different directions, I clearly predicted a gap in the teens last night and earlier today.
I was repeatedly assured on here that ULEZ was an extremely popular policy.
ULEZ is an interesting one. It has majority support, not massively so, but clear majority. But electorally it was always risky as the support is not evenly weighted.
The majority who benefit, benefit marginally, whereas the smaller groups of people who either had to pay extra, have stopped driving into certain areas or feared further anti-car changes (parking permits, 20mph, no car zones, confusing signage all part of it) see it as central to their politics.
I suspect it has cost Khan the election, even though it does have majority support.
For a lesson for the GE, VAT on private schools is a similar issue, it has majority support, is a good policy, but bad politics.
The issue with ULEZ is that it is part of a stack of policies that are actually quite regressive in nature. If you are driving a 100K SUV EV round London, it's freebies all the way. If you are driving a small ICE hatchback, not so much.
Quite. It has also been stated that car tyres produce vastly more particulates than exhaust emissions, especially heavy cars:
So possibly driving around a posh EV SUV isn't helping anyone's respiratory problems.
That's deeply misleading - the vast bulk of particles from car tyres are large enough to fall straight on to the road surface. It's an issue for storm water runoff, not air quality.
It's PM2.5 and NOx that are the immediate problem for human health - and in urban areas, they mostly come from ICE exhaust rather than tyres (or brakes, for that matter).
I was repeatedly assured on here that ULEZ was an extremely popular policy.
ULEZ is an interesting one. It has majority support, not massively so, but clear majority. But electorally it was always risky as the support is not evenly weighted.
The majority who benefit, benefit marginally, whereas the smaller groups of people who either had to pay extra, have stopped driving into certain areas or feared further anti-car changes (parking permits, 20mph, no car zones, confusing signage all part of it) see it as central to their politics.
I suspect it has cost Khan the election, even though it does have majority support.
For a lesson for the GE, VAT on private schools is a similar issue, it has majority support, is a good policy, but bad politics.
The issue with ULEZ is that it is part of a stack of policies that are actually quite regressive in nature. If you are driving a 100K SUV EV round London, it's freebies all the way. If you are driving a small ICE hatchback, not so much.
Quite. It has also been stated that car tyres produce vastly more particulates than exhaust emissions, especially heavy cars:
So possibly driving around a posh EV SUV isn't helping anyone's respiratory problems.
It’s time for much much tougher regulation on tyres than has erstwhile been the case. Virtually no progress on this for decades because regulators haven’t focused on it.
James Ball @jamesrbuk · 1h I am extremely sceptical of that Sky News projection as it looks like a PNS-type variable plugged into a seat calculator. Maybe there’s something much cleverer under the hood, but these results do not otherwise suggest a hung parliament.
I was repeatedly assured on here that ULEZ was an extremely popular policy.
ULEZ is an interesting one. It has majority support, not massively so, but clear majority. But electorally it was always risky as the support is not evenly weighted.
The majority who benefit, benefit marginally, whereas the smaller groups of people who either had to pay extra, have stopped driving into certain areas or feared further anti-car changes (parking permits, 20mph, no car zones, confusing signage all part of it) see it as central to their politics.
I suspect it has cost Khan the election, even though it does have majority support.
For a lesson for the GE, VAT on private schools is a similar issue, it has majority support, is a good policy, but bad politics.
The issue with ULEZ is that it is part of a stack of policies that are actually quite regressive in nature. If you are driving a 100K SUV EV round London, it's freebies all the way. If you are driving a small ICE hatchback, not so much.
Quite. It has also been stated that car tyres produce vastly more particulates than exhaust emissions, especially heavy cars:
So possibly driving around a posh EV SUV isn't helping anyone's respiratory problems.
The heaviest cars remain the biggest cars - Range Rover, Q7, X7 etc. None of which are EVs. I only changed the tyres on my Model Y on 31k miles because I didn't rotate them. Had I done so I would have got another 5k out of them easily, perhaps out to 40k.
That is not a usage profile of a vehicle shedding chunks of rubber under its massive weight...
We are in the period of the phoney war. War has been declared, a massive barrage of shelling with the red scourge conquering new places. But the big battle lies ahead, and the armchair generals are poking a stick at the ashes and looking through their tinted/blinkered specs looking for guidance.
I think the Sunak presser in Sheffield Teesside is the moment of the most shark-jumping for the blues. A win which - combined with results elsewhere - demonstrates that they will be obliterated once the fighting starts properly. And yet for now, the mood in team Sunak is WE'RE ALRIGHT! WE'RE ALRIGHT!
If the Hall win is just a confection from CCHQ it has been quite clever as the Blackpool by election the Metro Mayors and the X00 lost Councillors has been lost in the fog of Khan's assumed defeat.
Rabbit and AndyJS have done their bit on here too.
Can we not attack other posters integrity please?
Rabbit and AndyJS were seeking value as punter, just like everyone else.
🗣"People aren't expecting miracles. They know our country is broken. They know local government is broken. Across the region, we have massive challenges, but they wanted somebody who could start to turn that around," says @ClaireWard4EM .
Comments
The majority who benefit, benefit marginally, whereas the smaller groups of people who either had to pay extra, have stopped driving into certain areas or feared further anti-car changes (parking permits, 20mph, no car zones, confusing signage all part of it) see it as central to their politics.
I suspect it has cost Khan the election, even though it does have majority support.
For a lesson for the GE, VAT on private schools is a similar issue, it has majority support, is a good policy, but bad politics.
I hope you're looking forward to their apology as much as I am.
Not getting at you - just shows how trick y this is.
In fact it'll be fun to see where this magic money tree Hall is that will fund her manifesto.
@DPJHodges
·
1h
It’s incredible that some people are looking at the projected national vote share for the local elections and saying “this shows Labour is only 9% ahead. Much worse than the polls. The Tories can bridge that in a general election”. They’re not remotely comparable figures.
However it’s entertaining bullshit so:
🚨NEW: I am told that Starmer is set to blame Wes Streeting if Sadiq Khan loses the mayoral election. Starmer said to be furious about his tweet calling Tories 'white supremacists' and thinks it helped get Susan Hall's vote out.
https://x.com/doctoriaindarcy/status/1786438533072253278?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Edit to add: that was indeed a stupid stupid remark from Streeting
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/tees-valley-rishi-sunak-local-elections-tories-b2539172.html
Say hi to the Paranoid Anglophobe Tourguide for me
'I am told', but by whom?
But tweets can matter. Ask Emily Thornberry
https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1785754127647027636
"Liz Truss
@trussliz
This is disgusting from @wesstreetin. If this is the future of the Labour Party, they are in deep trouble.
Quote
Wes Streeting MP
@wesstreeting
·
May 1
A win for Susan Hall and the Conservatives is a win for racists, white supremacists and Islamophobes the world over. Susan Hall’s campaign has been fought from the gutter with dangerous and divisive politics. "
I see you're one of those sensitive PB types that has adopted a private profile. Undestandable if you're a bit stalky yourself that you might be paranoid.
There are lots of environmental policies that come with rebates and grants that are in practice highly regressive. I understand the idea of priming the pump, but they invariably look and act like handouts to the already well off.
Think people outside London or even those exclusively in naice and central London misunderstand the dynamics here and especially the impact in a low turnout election where tens of thousands matter.
Pump priming yes. But it needs to move with the flow. There is no need for any subsidy for £50k+ EVs any more - that market is rolling.
Target cheaper cars.
That’s a risky tweet designed to shore up the BME vote, especially Muslims disenchanted by Gaza
Edit- in Havant
Mind, some of even the modern range would suit some of us to a T - especially the officer cadet and action pilot.
https://tankmuseumshop.org/search?q=action&type=article,product&options[prefix]=last&sort_by=relevance&filter.p.product_type=Collectables
@DPJHodges
Then Sky News has lost its marbles.
Quote
Politics UK
@PolitlcsUK
🚨 BREAKING: Sky News predicts Labour will fall short of a majority by 32 seats at the next general election"
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1786448865215869122
Stephen Bush
@stephenkb
·
1h
Turnout figures from the London mayoralty: I think Susan Hall really could do it, you know: https://londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/election-progress/verification-and-turnout-data
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1786434620856136097
It's not the fact I looked at his profile and he knows. I knew that would happen. Its the fact you use the words "stalky" and "research" as if I was inquiring deeply into his background by underhand means by doing something so drearily commonplace. I knew he could see I looked, which is why I worked out instantly what your dumb reference to "research" was. I have seen many on here have looked at my profile, I've more than left enough breadcrumbs on here to work out who I am.
I call you out on it because accusing someone of being a stalker is a pretty big deal, don't you think?
@jamesrbuk
·
1h
I am extremely sceptical of that Sky News projection as it looks like a PNS-type variable plugged into a seat calculator. Maybe there’s something much cleverer under the hood, but these results do not otherwise suggest a hung parliament.
https://twitter.com/jamesrbuk/status/1786434188230504926
London Mayor Turnout
2000 - 34.43% - Ind win
2004 - 36.95% - Lab win
2008 - 45.30% - Con win
2012 - 38.1% - Con win
2016 - 45.3% - Lab win
2021 - 42.2% - Lab win
Stop jumping on my posts and jog on would be for the best I feel.
Now I'm starting to think I may win.
But he is the future apparently
https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/17304/havant
Former senior Post Office lawyer Jarnail Singh has denied that he knew about bugs in the Horizon system while sub-postmaster prosecutions continued for three years.
However, lead counsel for the Horizon inquiry Jason Beer accused Mr Singh of telling a "big fat lie".
Mr Singh was forwarded an email on the eve of the 2010 trial of Seema Misra, a sub-postmistress who was sent to jail while pregnant.
It identified bugs in the Horizon system that should have been disclosed in Mrs Misra's trial.
Mr Singh denied having read the email, despite being presented with evidence that he saved a copy to his hard drive and printed it off...
When asked whether it was saved on the hard drive of his computer, Mr Singh said: "I don't even know what you're talking about.
"I don't know how these things worked."
"You don't know how to save a document?" Mr Beer asked.
"I didn't know how to do it," Mr Singh responded, saying he wouldn't have had the technical knowledge either to do that or to understand the document itself.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1d4j5m3l08o
I think the Sunak presser in
SheffieldTeesside is the moment of the most shark-jumping for the blues. A win which - combined with results elsewhere - demonstrates that they will be obliterated once the fighting starts properly. And yet for now, the mood in team Sunak is WE'RE ALRIGHT! WE'RE ALRIGHT!https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jun/03/car-tyres-produce-more-particle-pollution-than-exhausts-tests-show
So possibly driving around a posh EV SUV isn't helping anyone's respiratory problems.
But quietly, in recent weeks, yet more evidence has emerged that it came from the lab, which anyone with a brain knew anyway. Here is arguably THE expert on Covid. Ralph Baric
🧵Fascinating origin-of-Covid testimony from renowned coronavirus expert Ralph Baric. “The single biggest issue to jump from the pages of Baric’s testimony is his persistent concern over unsafe research practices at the WIV,” writes @katherineeban
Baric recounts what he says were the responses to his efforts to flag troublingly lax laboratory safety at the Wuhan lab + Chinese coronavirus labs generally, including how they were waved away by the WIV's US funder.“
https://x.com/alisonannyoung/status/1785662709863793104?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
I’m still calling it a double digit win for Khan. The Savanta around 10% is probably the winning score, with a bit of MOE.
Outer London has higher turn out than inner London? So what? That doesn’t disprove the 22% lead in Yougov, as outer London is still packed with intelligent people to be polled, who understood what they would be getting with Hall as the total unelectable wingnut she is.
Even if Tories had put up a stronger candidate than Hall, I still think they would have lost to Khan. When it gets tight, incumbency brings a special bonus to these mayoralty contests.
It’s likely becuase so many voters still know diddly squat about Hall and what she stands for, that’s she’s over performed here and only loses by about 10 - like a paper candidate magnet for Khan dissatisfaction, but only for those who haven’t been paying proper attention what they’re actually voting for.
It's goodbye to the local MP's wife.
https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/election-progress/verification-and-turnout-data
It's more dignified for a start.
In Canalside, Woking, Faisal Mumtaz has been elected, representing the Liberal Democrats. This is a gain [from Labour] for the Lib Dems here in Canalside.
The result in the ward (three-member, elected every three out of four years) in 2023 was:
Labour - 1,112
Lib Dem - 542
Conservative - 448
This year:
Labour - 1,195
Lib Dem - 1,224
Conservative - 402
For the Lib Dems to gain Woking, they could do with being able to squeeze the Labour vote in Sheerwater. An impressive gain for the Lib Dems, but it looks like they did it by adding 8pp or so to the turnout. Whether they can repeat the trick at the General Election, I don't know. It's hard to know what turnout is like in Sheerwater for the GE.
That is not a usage profile of a vehicle shedding chunks of rubber under its massive weight...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/15/japan-cyber-security-ministernever-used-computer-yoshitaka-sakurada
Rabbit and AndyJS have done their bit on here too.
think a time magazine type cover split with him smiling with a quote on one side and the other him frowning with his flip flop and the sub-header of “which lie are you believing?” Then there is potentially a lot to play for. Not a Tory win but an uncomfortable close win for Labour where they are led by the man who lost a huge huge lead.
It's PM2.5 and NOx that are the immediate problem for human health - and in urban areas, they mostly come from ICE exhaust rather than tyres (or brakes, for that matter).
The EU is (partially) on the case https://ecostandard.org/news_events/tyre-wear-an-underestimated-source-of-air-pollution-that-needs-to-be-tackled-in-the-eu/
Con 73,500
Lab 70,128
LD 17,666
Con hold
https://twitter.com/journoontheedge/status/1786424173457199381/photo/1
Rabbit and AndyJS were seeking value as punter, just like everyone else.
Joe Locker
@JoeLocker96
🗣"People aren't expecting miracles. They know our country is broken. They know local government is broken. Across the region, we have massive challenges, but they wanted somebody who could start to turn that around," says
@ClaireWard4EM
.
https://twitter.com/JoeLocker96