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About that inevitable Labour landslide – politicalbetting.com

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  • Problem for Keir, or success by Keir?

    If Keir wins middle England but loses assorted antisemitic nutters and extremists, then that's good for Labour - and good for England that the PM isn't in hoc to assorted antisemitic nutters and extremists.

    Credit where credit is due, Keir has improved things immeasurably from Corbyn's day.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,129
    so looks like Gloucester, Epping Forest and Dorset have gone home for the night? Elmbridge's finished with Lib Dems 2 short of a majority. Stroud, Salford, Warrington and North Tyneside still not started.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,262

    Lib Dems have gained Dorset

    Do you have a source? Dorset Council website is (predictably) stuck at 59/82 seats counted.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    Problem for Keir, or success by Keir?

    If Keir wins middle England but loses assorted antisemitic nutters and extremists, then that's good for Labour - and good for England that the PM isn't in hoc to assorted antisemitic nutters and extremists.

    Credit where credit is due, Keir has improved things immeasurably from Corbyn's day.
    Still it must be immensely comforting for Gazans to know that if they're having problems with their bin collection there are some Oldham councillors who can help them out.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    edited May 2024
    DM_Andy said:

    Looking at the councils left with the number of Tory defences:
    Stroud 20
    Dorset 14 remaining
    North Tyneside 7
    Salford 3
    Warrington 11
    Epping Forest about 17
    Elmbridge 3
    Gloucester 19

    So I think the Conservatives would have to do really badly from now on to end with 50% losses or 500 losses.


    450 ain’t good though.

    500 was only picked because it’s a round symbolic number.

    8 councils currently lost to leave just 5. And if StodgeForcast is right, it’s going to be worse by the end.

    And the commentators right, hidden beneath Labours low PNS and only 170 net gains, Labour’s most eye catching results correlate to General Election seats.

    Also, the attritional flip around from start of parliament continued just about everywhere. It doesn’t seem long ago HY chose to use Swindon as an example of Labour labouring to take the council, keeping the Tory MPs with less to worry about. Look at it now.

    Very quietly behind the headlines, this set of locals have laid the foundation for Labour and LibDems to have a lot of fun on General Election night.

    Correct me where wrong. 🤷‍♀️
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Do you have a source? Dorset Council website is (predictably) stuck at 59/82 seats counted.
    LDs own twitter
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,383

    Agreed, still pretty awful though.

    Anyway, enough fun for one day. Until tomorrow.
    Not to good in either Gloucester or Dorset
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,116
    edited May 2024

    LDs own twitter
    https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1786481894021910665
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    Bad, obviously, but no worse than generally expected.

    Sleep well.
    It looks like BritainElects' model will be very close for Tory losses but didn't account for how many directions their lunch would be split when it was eaten.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,722
    Watching the PO enquiry today…the lawyer clearly made horrific mistakes but could not admit it. Even now.

    I dealt with two disciplinary matters within a few months at my firm a few years ago. Both involved real estate lawyers making a mistake. The first guy missed a deadline. He failed to get the client the benefit of a provision in the Landlord & Tenant Act 1954 that protects commercial leaseholders. Lost the client a couple of mill. He sat on it for days before ashen faced he went to see his head of department and burst into tears as he admitted what had happened.

    The second lawyer got a report on title wrong, she said the shop could be underlet, when it couldn’t. When asked by the client a year or so later, when they were thinking of underletting, she changed the report on title to cover up her mistake. When she was caught she blamed “two versions being on the document management system” when the metadata clearly showed otherwise.

    The first guy is now the managing partner at a decent Home Counties firm, nice house, couple of kids, goes windsurfing on a Wednesdays, all he ever wanted really. The insurance having taken the hit, he will never make a mistake like that again.

    The second lawyer has been struck off the roll having agreed to pay the SRA’s six figure costs of investigating her. I believe she’s lost her house.

    It’s always the cover up. Sometimes “I fucked up” is the most powerful phrase in English.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,226

    LDs own twitter
    What kind of freak follows the LibDem Twitter account?
  • legatuslegatus Posts: 126
    edited May 2024
    There are some odd crumbs of comfort for the Tories. Labour probably had hopes of winning the Cambridgeshire PCC but the Tories have been saved by the new voting system - despite there being Local Elections in Cambridge and Peterborough. The final result was -
    Con 62588
    Lab 58804
    LD 41984
    A bit surpeisingly the Tories narrowly outpolled Labour in Peterborough. Labour was probably hampered by too many Labour-inclined voters having been in the habit of voting LD tactically at Local Elections in the more rural areas who then failed to appreciate the different dynamics of the PCC election. Under the former system Labour would surely have won.
    The result from South Cambridgeshire was interesting -
    Con 11262
    LD 11091
    Lab 9141
    That tends to support the message that the new seat could well be a three - way contest - particularly as the areas moved into the seat from Cambridge itself would not appear in those figures
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,319
    Leon said:

    I never said there was any “there” there. I said something truly weird was happening in the American establishment. And it was. Mass contagious delusion stemming from a few credulous individuals was my best guess - and I think that was probably right

    Possibly mixed in with the pentagon seeking money and/or obscuring real tech advances
    Your pants are on fire. I bet plenty on here can remember what you repeatedly posted. Just because you were (I assume) blind drunk at the time, doesn't mean everyone else was.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,818
    Pu
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,818

    LDs own twitter
    Don’t tell me Musk’s another mole?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,024
    Andy_JS said:
    No new facts so most likely people getting home from work and adjusting their positions back.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    rcs1000 said:

    What kind of freak follows the LibDem Twitter account?
    I searched Dorset sucker!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,536
    ohnotnow said:

    Anthropic (and others) are getting a pretty good insight into how 'the black box works' now. Coupled with probes into how diffusion models work and 'perceive' the image the are creating - I suspect we're not far being able to instrument these things, if we want.

    And there are very strong signals already that the bigger models are creating their own 'world view' irrespective of how we train them. The paper a few months ago where, when they probed into the models 'black box', it had a 2D representation of an Othello board which it had never been trained on was quite intriguing for one. There do now seem to be strong signals that the larger LLM's have a sense of space, dimensions, time.
    Yes. There are some really interesting/spooky signs that they might possess something that looks close to “sentience” - and as the tech develops that resemblance will intensify

    We may never “know” - because we don’t even know what consciousness is and we can’t define it, even in ourselves

    Hence, the Turing Test. Once they start to act think talk and move exactly as if they are sentient, we will have to accept them as such

    I’ve interacted enough with Claude 3 Opus such that, if Anthropic said that they were deleting him, I’d be mildly troubled, morally
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,920
    MattW said:

    Was planning a comment on PCCs, which seems to have evaporated.

    At present it looks like an equal split Tory/Lab with 23 results in. Before it was 30 Tory:6 or 7 Lab, so good progress for Labour but not dominant.

    In the D2N2 zone the incumbent Personal Crime Commissioner for Notts has been heavily defeated (my Conservative Friends were commenting "WTF?") when she stood. The Cons have kept Derbyshire PCC.

    Notts:

    2021:
    Caroline Henry, Conservative Party, 138,658 votes.
    Paddy Tipping, Labour Party, 131,302 votes.

    2024:
    Labour – 119,355
    Conservative – 77,148
    Liberal Democrats – 32,410

    I haven't calculated it, but that's a significant swing.

    The Notts swing is about 11.5 points.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,129

    I searched Dorset sucker!
    Thankfully you didn't google for tractors.

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,576
    DougSeal said:

    Watching the PO enquiry today…the lawyer clearly made horrific mistakes but could not admit it. Even now.

    I dealt with two disciplinary matters within a few months at my firm a few years ago. Both involved real estate lawyers making a mistake. The first guy missed a deadline. He failed to get the client the benefit of a provision in the Landlord & Tenant Act 1954 that protects commercial leaseholders. Lost the client a couple of mill. He sat on it for days before ashen faced he went to see his head of department and burst into tears as he admitted what had happened.

    The second lawyer got a report on title wrong, she said the shop could be underlet, when it couldn’t. When asked by the client a year or so later, when they were thinking of underletting, she changed the report on title to cover up her mistake. When she was caught she blamed “two versions being on the document management system” when the metadata clearly showed otherwise.

    The first guy is now the managing partner at a decent Home Counties firm, nice house, couple of kids, goes windsurfing on a Wednesdays, all he ever wanted really. The insurance having taken the hit, he will never make a mistake like that again.

    The second lawyer has been struck off the roll having agreed to pay the SRA’s six figure costs of investigating her. I believe she’s lost her house.

    It’s always the cover up. Sometimes “I fucked up” is the most powerful phrase in English.

    Although these idiots at the PO seem to think claiming stupidity will prevent them being prosecuted. The last few weeks have been a cavalcade of the shiftiest, most forgetful, least curious, shits that you’d never want to meet.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,210
    kjh said:

    Woking is now a Tory free zone. I lived there for many years from the age of 9 and it was always solid Tory. The idea that there is not a single one left is bewildering.

    Woking by name...
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,722

    I searched Dorset sucker!
    What did you find there? I hear Lyme Regis is nice.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393

    Lib Dems have gained Dorset

    Wiltshire Conservatives to the north thanking their luck their election is next year.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,850
    Interesting and I imagine fair political portrait of Susan Hall. She would have to seriously reinvent herself not to self destruct as London Mayor.

    https://www.onlondon.co.uk/dave-hill-susan-hall-a-portrait-of-what-her-party-has-become/
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    DougSeal said:

    What did you find there? I hear Lyme Regis is nice.
    Fossils and a lady who stares out to sea
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,536
    kamski said:

    Your pants are on fire. I bet plenty on here can remember what you repeatedly posted. Just because you were (I assume) blind drunk at the time, doesn't mean everyone else was.
    No, I completely agree with what @SeanT said here, in his Spectator piece

    “To my mind, there are five main possible explanations, in descending order of probability.

    1. The US establishment – Pentagon to press – is engaged in a complex cross-party conspiracy of psyops to unnerve and mystify America’s adversaries, especially the Chinese. Perhaps they want to convince them America possesses advanced alien technology, and America has been reverse engineering it for decades.

    2. The US establishment has some incredible new military tech – something truly astonishing, like anti-gravity aircraft – and they’ve had it for ages, and they want to hide it from everyone: Americans as much as the Chinese.

    3. The US establishment has gone collectively mad, or is suffering some mass hallucination, stemming from a few credulous individuals (a process known in psychology as ‘contagion’).

    4. The US military/elite sincerely believes we are being visited by non human intelligence – but they’re wrong.

    5. The US military/elite sincerely believes we are being visited by non human intelligence – and they are right. “

    Bang on, I think

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ufos-or-not-something-is-up/
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,262
    DougSeal said:

    What did you find there? I hear Lyme Regis is nice.
    Oi! Dorset is unquestionably the loveliest county in Britain.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,319

    Woking by name...
    I always thought Woking was a diminutive of Wokingham, but apparently they are 2 different places!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,576
    Leon said:

    No, I completely agree with what @SeanT said here, in his Spectator piece

    “To my mind, there are five main possible explanations, in descending order of probability.

    1. The US establishment – Pentagon to press – is engaged in a complex cross-party conspiracy of psyops to unnerve and mystify America’s adversaries, especially the Chinese. Perhaps they want to convince them America possesses advanced alien technology, and America has been reverse engineering it for decades.

    2. The US establishment has some incredible new military tech – something truly astonishing, like anti-gravity aircraft – and they’ve had it for ages, and they want to hide it from everyone: Americans as much as the Chinese.

    3. The US establishment has gone collectively mad, or is suffering some mass hallucination, stemming from a few credulous individuals (a process known in psychology as ‘contagion’).

    4. The US military/elite sincerely believes we are being visited by non human intelligence – but they’re wrong.

    5. The US military/elite sincerely believes we are being visited by non human intelligence – and they are right. “

    Bang on, I think

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ufos-or-not-something-is-up/
    The only one that gets close is three, and as I said above, there was no mass delusion, only a few idiot senators who already believed. Where is the evidence for mass delusion? A few stories in the press ain’t it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,482
    edited May 2024
    CatMan said:

    You're not sure who the Indy is but you know all about his sex life? :wink:
    Heh. I've updated that. He was one of only 2 from 6 D2N2 Mayoral Candidates who put their home address on the election papers.

    Some on the Estate where he lived notoriously (imo) campaigned *against* safer travel for people not in motor vehicles because the Ashfield Independents wanted a wedge issue with which to attack the Conservatives at County; that's @NickPalmer Ashfield politics for you . They have left disabled and elderly people wheeling and scootering up a smashed up 1.1-1.3m wide pavement for a considerable distance, or being forced onto the carriageway.

    This piece mentions the guy Matthew Relf, but is not very nuanced. They succeeded in undermining the scheme, which is on a key Active Travel route to a 600 bed hospital, a campus of the local University, Mansfield, and a lot of employment areas.
    https://www.chad.co.uk/news/people/residents-and-opposition-councillors-blast-county-councils-reckless-sutton-cycle-lane-plans-3960262

    The stuff about "green space" is from a party quite happy to demolish trees elsewhere for marginal improvements to parking, and who are trying to building Council Housing on several recreation grounds across the area.

    But AIs are ex-Lib Dems and therefore prioritise populism wrt very local residents. That's not really an anti-LD comment, just a recognition how they operate.

    I think Mr Bungalow may be an old character from Radio Active, alongside Mr Suburb.

    There are very good reasons why my active travel activism is very focused, and mainly around things I can probably enforce at law if necessary :smile: .
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,262
    edited May 2024
    DM_Andy said:

    Thankfully you didn't google for tractors.

    I've got a feeling "Dorset sucker" is most likely to get you a local septic tank emptying contractor tbf.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,319

    The only one that gets close is three, and as I said above, there was no mass delusion, only a few idiot senators who already believed. Where is the evidence for mass delusion? A few stories in the press ain’t it.
    He's got a clip of Obama making a joke on a comedy show. He'll probably link to it again.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Epping Forest count to conclude tomorrow
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,065

    Hearing that 'didn't know how to save a document' response made me burst out laughing. NVQ Word Processing Level 1 appears to have been beyond him, and yet he's a senior lawyer?
    So the PO top brass know absolutely nothing?

    I am reminded of the early New Labour joke - someone at dinner with a junior MP notices he is wearing an earpiece. Annoyed, he yanks it out. The MP face plants into the soup. Horrified, the chap picks up the earpiece. And hears Alistair Campbell. “Breathe in… Breathe out…”
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,506

    Epping Forest count to conclude tomorrow

    Lazy buggers!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,262

    Fossils and a lady who stares out to sea
    Stretching eyes west
    Over the sea,
    Wind foul or fair,
    Always stood she
    Prospect-impressed;
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,116

    Fossils and a lady who stares out to sea
    Also Robbie Coltrane

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FX51mwWyVFY
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,506
    kamski said:

    I always thought Woking was a diminutive of Wokingham, but apparently they are 2 different places!
    Woking is in Surrey, not too far from London, Wokingham is in Berkshire, close to Reading.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,513
    kjh said:

    Woking is now a Tory free zone. I lived there for many years from the age of 9 and it was always solid Tory. The idea that there is not a single one left is bewildering.

    The Knaphill postmaster Saj Hussain lost by 200 votes. He had a personal vote, but it was not enough to save him.

    Given the monumental disaster the Tories made of running the council, it's hardly a surprise they've been wiped out. Question is, can the Lib Dems (or Labour...) win the seat at the General Election? Could be very close.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,319

    Woking is in Surrey, not too far from London, Wokingham is in Berkshire, close to Reading.
    I see. Which one is part of Basingstoke?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,506
    kamski said:

    I see. Which one is part of Basingstoke?
    Basingstoke is rather far from either, in Hampshire. Roughly 50 miles from central London.
  • A stupid post to put on a betting site. That might have got you banned when Mike was in charge.
    https://www.gmelects.org.uk/result-2024/

    Manchester turnout looks lower than London.

    FWIW - Andy B will win all ten boroughs very easily, last time he won every single ward in all ten boroughs, unlikely I guess with FPTP.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,482

    Oi! Dorset is unquestionably the loveliest county in Britain.
    I hope you are an authoritative Scotch Expert, or expect incoming !
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,695
    The rainbow coalition strategy - perhaps exemplified by Sadiq Khan himself - seems to have reached the end of the road.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,513
    kamski said:

    I see. Which one is part of Basingstoke?
    Neither.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,818

    The rainbow coalition strategy - perhaps exemplified by Sadiq Khan himself - seems to have reached the end of the road.
    Labour are collapsing all around us. They’ve finally been rumbled. Tory landslide incoming.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,319

    Basingstoke is rather far from either, in Hampshire. Roughly 50 miles from central London.
    All 'near London' so far as I'm concerned!

    I do genuinely confuse Woking and Wokingham, I knew one of them was in Surrey.

    A friend of mine accidentally went to meet some people in Gillingham, Kent, when they were actually meeting in Gillingham, Dorset. True story from the days before mobile phones.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,536
    kamski said:

    He's got a clip of Obama making a joke on a comedy show. He'll probably link to it again.
    It’s a large number of senators, and ex intelligence heads, ex CIA chiefs, admirals, generals, NYT journalists, the head of NASA (etc etc etc) plus multiple presidents (including Obama).

    Even the present head of US Intel

    National Intelligence Director Avril Haines admits possibility of aliens
    By
    Mike Brest
    November 11, 2021 9:53 pm

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/1223730/national-intelligence-director-avril-haines-admits-possibility-of-aliens/

    Something really weird happened to the US elite from 2021-23 when they all started saying truly strange things about “UFOs”

    I’ve hazarded a guess why. You are too stupid to even grasp that this happened

    Next
  • TresTres Posts: 2,808
    nico679 said:

    A lot depends on the Reform vote in London .

    Another complication , many of these constituencies stretch from inner London to the outer suburbs . It would help if we got turnout for the boroughs .

    problem is reform can't campaign, they've flopped in the outer London council by-elections which have been counted today
  • On topic - landslides are never inevitable until they have happened.

    However, if you are looking at these results and seeing anything but a heavy Lab victory with a comfortable overall majority then you are in good company with Prof. Thrasher but you really do not understand the difference between General and local elections. The same mistake was made by Prof. Thrasher and others after the 2023 elections and it is, for me, pretty clear evidence that the notional national vote and the uniform national swing can lead even the smartest folk down a blind alley of massive proportions.

    On these results I would be upgrading my estimated Lab overall majority from 50-75 to 75-100. Crunch those numbers in anything but the most superficial way and you will know why.

    Of course the odds may be heavily weighted enough to make betting against an overall majority a reasonable bet. Also, though it seems almost inconceivable, I might actually be wrong! However, that's the fun of the game isn't it and we will soon all find out!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,210
    kamski said:

    I always thought Woking was a diminutive of Wokingham, but apparently they are 2 different places!
    Wokingham still with some surviving gammons presumably.
  • legatuslegatus Posts: 126
    Perhaps we will see a surprise Tory hold at Peterborough in the GE.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,576
    Leon said:

    It’s a large number of senators, and ex intelligence heads, ex CIA chiefs, admirals, generals, NYT journalists, the head of NASA (etc etc etc) plus multiple presidents (including Obama).

    Even the present head of US Intel

    National Intelligence Director Avril Haines admits possibility of aliens
    By
    Mike Brest
    November 11, 2021 9:53 pm

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/1223730/national-intelligence-director-avril-haines-admits-possibility-of-aliens/

    Something really weird happened to the US elite from 2021-23 when they all started saying truly strange things about “UFOs”

    I’ve hazarded a guess why. You are too stupid to even grasp that this happened

    Next
    And you are too arrogant (and like an argument too much) to ever concede that others said it was nonsense and it was.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,262

    On topic - landslides are never inevitable until they have happened.

    However, if you are looking at these results and seeing anything but a heavy Lab victory with a comfortable overall majority then you are in good company with Prof. Thrasher but you really do not understand the difference between General and local elections. The same mistake was made by Prof. Thrasher and others after the 2023 elections and it is, for me, pretty clear evidence that the notional national vote and the uniform national swing can lead even the smartest folk down a blind alley of massive proportions.

    On these results I would be upgrading my estimated Lab overall majority from 50-75 to 75-100. Crunch those numbers in anything but the most superficial way and you will know why.

    Of course the odds may be heavily weighted enough to make betting against an overall majority a reasonable bet. Also, though it seems almost inconceivable, I might actually be wrong! However, that's the fun of the game isn't it and we will soon all find out!

    Not soon enough, sadly.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,818
    edited May 2024
    It will be interesting to see the correlation between minor party seat count and BBC and other TV and radio news interviews over the next two days.

    Presumably the leaders of both Lib Dems and Greens will get about 50 times more coverage than Richard Tice or Nigel Farage. Right?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,536

    The only one that gets close is three, and as I said above, there was no mass delusion, only a few idiot senators who already believed. Where is the evidence for mass delusion? A few stories in the press ain’t it.

    The only one that gets close is three, and as I said above, there was no mass delusion, only a few idiot senators who already believed. Where is the evidence for mass delusion? A few stories in the press ain’t it.
    It’s way more than that. You’re a dullard who took sixty eight years to admit that MAYBE it came from the lab

    This was just last week:

    “John Oliver on UFOs: ‘There needs to be room for honest inquiry’”


    “So if a subject is this ubiquitous with such major questions being asked, now might be a good time to – and I cannot believe I’m about to say this – talk about UFOs: what we know, what we don’t know, and some of the problems with how we’ve gone about finding out more,” Oliver explained.

    He started with a disclaimer: that talking about UFOs doesn’t necessarily mean talking about aliens, just unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP). “While you can believe aliens exist or not, when it comes to UFOs, belief doesn’t really come into it,” he said. “Whatever they are, people are seeing them””

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2024/apr/22/john-oliver-ufos-uaps
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,576
    TimS said:

    It will be interesting to see the correlation between minor party seat count and BBC and other TV and radio news interviews over the next two days.

    Presumably the leaders of both Lib Dems and Greens will get about 50 times more coverage than Richard Tice or Nigel Farage. Right?

    By minor party, are we to include the Conservatives?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,722
    kamski said:

    All 'near London' so far as I'm concerned!

    I do genuinely confuse Woking and Wokingham, I knew one of them was in Surrey.

    A friend of mine accidentally went to meet some people in Gillingham, Kent, when they were actually meeting in Gillingham, Dorset. True story from the days before mobile phones.
    Stories like that pop up in the Kent press/news websites every so often still. One poor girl was due to be in a cheerleading competition in the Medway Town but ended up in Dorset.

    Ashford, Kent and Ashford, Middx sometimes cause confusion but less often.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,262
    MattW said:

    I hope you are an authoritative Scotch Expert, or expect incoming !
    We already get plenty of incomers thank you.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,818

    By minor party, are we to include the Conservatives?
    Depends on the final seat count dunnit.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,536

    And you are too arrogant (and like an argument too much) to ever concede that others said it was nonsense and it was.
    It’s not arrogant when I’m so clearly and profoundly your intellectual superior, and by an embarrassing distance
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,262
    DougSeal said:

    Stories like that pop up in the Kent press/news websites every so often still. One poor girl was due to be in a cheerleading competition in the Medway Town but ended up in Dorset.

    Ashford, Kent and Ashford, Middx sometimes cause confusion but less often.
    Sounds like she had a lucky escape tbf.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,319
    Leon said:

    It’s a large number of senators, and ex intelligence heads, ex CIA chiefs, admirals, generals, NYT journalists, the head of NASA (etc etc etc) plus multiple presidents (including Obama).

    Even the present head of US Intel

    National Intelligence Director Avril Haines admits possibility of aliens
    By
    Mike Brest
    November 11, 2021 9:53 pm

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/1223730/national-intelligence-director-avril-haines-admits-possibility-of-aliens/

    Something really weird happened to the US elite from 2021-23 when they all started saying truly strange things about “UFOs”

    I’ve hazarded a guess why. You are too stupid to even grasp that this happened

    Next
    As usual, if anyone bothers to follow your link it doesn't really support what you are saying. Full Haines quote from the article YOU just posted:

    'Avril Haines, the director of national intelligence, did not rule out the possibility of aliens when discussing UFO sightings during a recent forum at the “Our Future in Space” event at the Washington National Cathedral.

    “The main issues that Congress and others have been concerned about is safety of flight concerns and counterintelligence issues,” the DNI told the forum. “Always, there’s also the question of, ‘Is there something else that we simply do not understand, which might come extraterrestrially?’”

    Haines, who leads the 18 intelligence agencies, spoke about the lack of an organized reporting structure for potential sightings.

    “A large portion of that is based on the fact that we don’t have a consistent way of reporting this information — we need to integrate a lot of data that we get,” she said. “We need to get better at collecting information that’s useful to us from different sensors that are available to us.”'

    What is 'truly strange' about what Haines says here? Nothing, that's what. So you are either dishonest, or just 'too stupid' to understand simple English.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,536
    edited May 2024
    kamski said:

    As usual, if anyone bothers to follow your link it doesn't really support what you are saying. Full Haines quote from the article YOU just posted:

    'Avril Haines, the director of national intelligence, did not rule out the possibility of aliens when discussing UFO sightings during a recent forum at the “Our Future in Space” event at the Washington National Cathedral.

    “The main issues that Congress and others have been concerned about is safety of flight concerns and counterintelligence issues,” the DNI told the forum. “Always, there’s also the question of, ‘Is there something else that we simply do not understand, which might come extraterrestrially?’”

    Haines, who leads the 18 intelligence agencies, spoke about the lack of an organized reporting structure for potential sightings.

    “A large portion of that is based on the fact that we don’t have a consistent way of reporting this information — we need to integrate a lot of data that we get,” she said. “We need to get better at collecting information that’s useful to us from different sensors that are available to us.”'

    What is 'truly strange' about what Haines says here? Nothing, that's what. So you are either dishonest, or just 'too stupid' to understand simple English.
    lol. She’s overall head of total US intelligence and she publicly wonders “are we being visited by extra terrestrials”?

    AND YOU DON’T THINK THAT’S STRANGE
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,695
    TimS said:

    Labour are collapsing all around us. They’ve finally been rumbled. Tory landslide incoming.
    The electoral system helps them. If this were France, we might be looking at the Houellebecq scenario of the far-right vs the Islamo-left.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,182
    I doubt Sadiq has lost but if he has, he only has himself to blame. As a soft-lefter I would not have voted for him but rather for LD candidate. Most of my left-wing friends have gone for Green.

    Khan has no actual fans. He is merely tolerated, which is not much of a legacy after 8 years.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,576
    Leon said:

    It’s way more than that. You’re a dullard who took sixty eight years to admit that MAYBE it came from the lab

    This was just last week:

    “John Oliver on UFOs: ‘There needs to be room for honest inquiry’”


    “So if a subject is this ubiquitous with such major questions being asked, now might be a good time to – and I cannot believe I’m about to say this – talk about UFOs: what we know, what we don’t know, and some of the problems with how we’ve gone about finding out more,” Oliver explained.

    He started with a disclaimer: that talking about UFOs doesn’t necessarily mean talking about aliens, just unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP). “While you can believe aliens exist or not, when it comes to UFOs, belief doesn’t really come into it,” he said. “Whatever they are, people are seeing them””

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2024/apr/22/john-oliver-ufos-uaps
    People have always seen stuff. That’s the problem with perception. In the past we saw angels and demons, then we saw flying saucers, now it’s UAPs. None stand up to scrutiny.
    The latest nonsense is tied into the people behind the Skinwalker ranch. It’s all bullshit. A few senators asked questions and then some people gave answers that admit the possibility of aliens, which is like saying Hall could win London.
    You may feel you were ramping the fact that something was going on, but you were pretty obviously suggesting the big reveal was coming, as was another poster. I’m still waiting, as I said I would be.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,383
    Leon said:

    It’s not arrogant when I’m so clearly and profoundly your intellectual superior, and by an embarrassing distance
    Calm down dear, and next time don´t go out without your medication.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,394
    John Stevens

    @johnestevens
    ·
    1h
    Not looking good for Thangam Debbonaire

    The Greens have won all 14 council seats in the wards that make up the Bristol Central constituency where she’s standing at general election
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,319

    Wokingham still with some surviving gammons presumably.
    I gave this a 'like' even though it is a truly shit joke.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,576
    Leon said:

    It’s not arrogant when I’m so clearly and profoundly your intellectual superior, and by an embarrassing distance
    You are so funny. I’ll take my PhD and scientific credentials over your perusing of Reddit every time.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,623
    edited May 2024
    OnboardG1 said:

    It looks like BritainElects' model will be very close for Tory losses but didn't account for how many directions their lunch would be split when it was eaten.
    Very well put, On.

    It's about as bad as expected for the Tories, but for Labour it's a pass mark, and no more. The LDs and Greens have done well. The mainstream media hasn't really pickedup on this.

    Fortunately we have PB for sane, serious and objective evaluations.

    Nite all.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,818
    Current seat tally Lib Dem 487, Conservative 463.
  • legatuslegatus Posts: 126

    John Stevens

    @johnestevens
    ·
    1h
    Not looking good for Thangam Debbonaire

    The Greens have won all 14 council seats in the wards that make up the Bristol Central constituency where she’s standing at general election

    I will still be surprised if her majority is below 10000 at the GE.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,182
    Greens have taken control of Hastings.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited May 2024

    Wokingham still with some surviving gammons presumably.
    Berkshires, one imagines.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,319
    Leon said:

    lol. She’s overall head of total US intelligence and she publicly wonders “are we being visited by extra terrestrials”?

    AND YOU DON’T THINK THAT’S STRANGE
    No what she said was

    'The main issues that Congress and others have been concerned about is safety of flight concerns and counterintelligence issues. Always, there’s also the question of, ‘Is there something else that we simply do not understand, which might come extraterrestrially?'

    Presumably because people keep asking the question, and it is obviously an interesting question. (Spoiler: probably not).

    So, no, I don't find what she said strange or remarkable at all. Obviously the headline writer had a bit of fun with the clickbait, but I guess you didn't read beyond the headline anyway.

    You, on the other hand, were repeatedly telling us we were all idiots because we were ignoring 'the biggest news in human history', and other such bullshit.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,861
    rcs1000 said:

    What kind of freak follows the LibDem Twitter account?
    OGH, possibly?
  • legatuslegatus Posts: 126
    TimS said:

    It will be interesting to see the correlation between minor party seat count and BBC and other TV and radio news interviews over the next two days.

    Presumably the leaders of both Lib Dems and Greens will get about 50 times more coverage than Richard Tice or Nigel Farage. Right?

    I certainly see nothing from these elections - or the Blackpool South by election - that would justify Ofcom awarding Reform with Major party status at the GE. Has the party won any council seats?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,536

    You are so funny. I’ll take my PhD and scientific credentials over your perusing of Reddit every time.
    You were literally convinced it came from the wet market and lab leak was impossible until this afternoon, approximately. You’re a fucking worker drone in a polytechnic chemistry department with the imaginative abilities of a sea slug. You make @kinabalu look like Isaac Newton. You’re a midwit primary school teacher who is too frightened to think outside the box because you’re incapable of comprehending there is even a box in the fucking first place. You’re not even as interesting as a moron, at least they drool

    But don’t take this personally, I do not wish to offend. Also, @kamski is even dimmer, so there’s that
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,210
    kamski said:

    I gave this a 'like' even though it is a truly shit joke.
    I'm not proud..
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,623

    Greens have taken control of Hastings.

    This is presumably the Political Party and not the aliens of which Leon has warned us?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,394

    Greens have taken control of Hastings.

    BBC are saying No Control.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    kamski said:

    No what she said was

    'The main issues that Congress and others have been concerned about is safety of flight concerns and counterintelligence issues. Always, there’s also the question of, ‘Is there something else that we simply do not understand, which might come extraterrestrially?'

    Presumably because people keep asking the question, and it is obviously an interesting question. (Spoiler: probably not).

    So, no, I don't find what she said strange or remarkable at all. Obviously the headline writer had a bit of fun with the clickbait, but I guess you didn't read beyond the headline anyway.

    You, on the other hand, were repeatedly telling us we were all idiots because we were ignoring 'the biggest news in human history', and other such bullshit.
    I must say I dipped into it at random - and the UFo in question turned out to be very obviously a party balloon whose apparent motion was clearly produced by the movement of the observer. And that was the sort of thing being held up as evidence.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,650

    Greens have taken control of Hastings.

    Poirot won't be happy.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,394
    TimS said:

    Current seat tally Lib Dem 487, Conservative 463.

    :lol:
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,576
    edited May 2024
    Leon said:

    You were literally convinced it came from the wet market and lab leak was impossible until this afternoon, approximately. You’re a fucking worker drone in a polytechnic chemistry department with the imaginative abilities of a sea slug. You make @kinabalu look like Isaac Newton. You’re a midwit primary school teacher who is too frightened to think outside the box because you’re incapable of comprehending there is even a box in the fucking first place. You’re not even as interesting as a moron, at least they drool

    But don’t take this personally, I do not wish to offend. Also, @kamski is even dimmer, so there’s that
    It’s a life sciences deoartment, but the rest was spot on…

    (Although I can happily change my mind when more evidence emerges, I have not seen conclusive proof for either lab leak or wet market. I doubt we will ever fully know. And both options are totally plausible. SARS, MERS etc are zoonotic in origin. We also know that labs can see escapes - even in the U.K. You have decided that you are right about the lab leak hypothesis, but that is not the same as being right.)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,394
    legatus said:

    I will still be surprised if her majority is below 10000 at the GE.
    Hopefully BF will get their individual constituencies GE wins up on their board soon.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,861
    Pathetic from those councils which haven’t declared today. No need for this to take so long. Epping Forest in particular.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,506

    Greens have taken control of Hastings.

    Nope, they only have 12 out of 32 seats in total.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,650
    Sky NEV now 35% v 26%. They had a 7% margin earlier, so now updated to align with BBC.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,125
    ...

    That's one in the eye for the establishment.
    The post of your entire PB career! Respect (or should that now be the Workers's Party-meow?).
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,722
    Is this a “Leon’s Greatest Hits” night? Will Paul Ross pop up every so often with some ironic commentary on how they impacted the zeitgeist?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,262

    Nope, they only have 12 out of 32 seats in total.
    They won 9/16 this time but only 16/32 being contested.
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586

    Basingstoke is rather far from either, in Hampshire. Roughly 50 miles from central London.
    What about Basingstoke in Westphalia?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    legatus said:

    I will still be surprised if her majority is below 10000 at the GE.
    You base that on what?

    She isn’t defending a seat, she has to go to a new seat made up of the Greens strongest wards in the city. And to what degree has Gaza additionally played it’s part it the Greens takeover today?

    Let's be realistic. Betting Post wise we should look right now at what price we get for her defeat, for those odds will close up very soon. There’s money to be made from her demise.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,319
    Carnyx said:

    I must say I dipped into it at random - and the UFo in question turned out to be very obviously a party balloon whose apparent motion was clearly produced by the movement of the observer. And that was the sort of thing being held up as evidence.
    What about this AMAZING likeness of Jesus Christ someone found on their burrito?

    Why are all you midwits still chuntering on about differential turnout? This changes EVERYTHING.

    this is JESUS
This discussion has been closed.