Labour got to be kicking themselves in Havant, topping the poll in 4 wards but only standing a full slate in 1 of them, leaving the 3rd seat open for a Green and two Reform.
Not many people want to be councillor in their 20s and 30s so they might have struggled to find candidates. It's an old man's game these days. Pay is crap, zero prestige, little chance of changing anything with the current funding. Unless you're a weirdo desperate to be an MP there's not much to attract you to the role.
Not sure that is entirely true, a hard working local councillor is often very respected, sometimes even more than the local MP if not too partisan and they can sort out problems with pavements, planning, anti social behaviour etc.
Though yes the allowances aren't much given the hours done, so it tends to be mainly the retired who do it and use the allowance to top up their pension. Those working full time and with families find it difficult to get the time to be a councillor so younger councillors tend to be single, have their own business or work part time or be full time politicians looking to stand for parliament
Depends on the council I suppose. Right now they're all getting it in the neck because of the rubbish funding settlements from central government but I guess that depends on the council.
The full data has been released by @londonelects and I've done some digging.
In areas the Tories won, the turnout is up 6.5k votes.
In areas the Labour party won, the turnout is down ~42k votes.
Only a small swing is required for Khan to lose.
Those changes would only be about half of what is needed for Hall to win (comparing to 2021 first preference votes).
I hope my tip of backing Khan to fall into the 35-40% voteshare band at 22/1 with Ladbrokes goes into the pantheon of one of the greatest tips of all time if it comes off.
Given the importance of turnout in determining the result of a general election, I think any projection from local election results really should be treated as "just a bit of fun".
Mr D Finkelstein, in that video I posted on the last thread, added that it was also daft to try and predict general elections based on locals in a handful of locations fought between different parties on different issues, and that opinion polls were better.
Do you know what, for once I think you're probably right. I think he'll come home with a result that we'd call "fine" in any other year.
But I'm not going to roast any other posters who think otherwise on the basis that no one knows what's going on and the people confidently predicting this or that have a 50% chance of looking stupid tomorrow.
“for once”????
Tut
Okay. I'll give you the Liz Truss rope-ring.
Right: Covid Lab leak Lorry bomb AI Ukraine not winning; now losing UAPs a serious matter China overtakes America on GDP by PPP And others
Wrong: Liz Truss upsiding What3Words And others
Incidentally on AI if you’re hoping to retrain as a plumber, don’t get too excited. Turns out LLMs are brilliant at training robots to work via simulation
Here the LLM near-instantly trained a robot dog to balance on a yoga ball. Incroyable
Wait until they go mad for the pyrrhic (actually worse than pyrrhic) Susan Hall victory. She’s going to be a proper albatross around the neck.
If Susan Hall wins on a turnout differential you can expect Labour to spend the entire campaign pointing to it and saying "see, if you can't be arsed voting, or vote for the cranky party then you get the Tories again".
EDIT: I'd say, worryingly, that if Khan does lose it means that the Tories will run more of their awful, GOP style "THE MUZLIMS ARE COMING FOR YOU CULTURE" ads and it will be very unedifying.
We are in the period of the phoney war. War has been declared, a massive barrage of shelling with the red scourge conquering new places. But the big battle lies ahead, and the armchair generals are poking a stick at the ashes and looking through their tinted/blinkered specs looking for guidance.
I think the Sunak presser in Sheffield Teesside is the moment of the most shark-jumping for the blues. A win which - combined with results elsewhere - demonstrates that they will be obliterated once the fighting starts properly. And yet for now, the mood in team Sunak is WE'RE ALRIGHT! WE'RE ALRIGHT!
If the Hall win is just a confection from CCHQ it has been quite clever as the Blackpool by election the Metro Mayors and the X00 lost Councillors has been lost in the fog of Khan's assumed defeat.
Rabbit and AndyJS have done their bit on here too.
I strongly suspect the reason for CCHQ last night to leak suggestions of a Hall win on Saturday was to get through expected terrible results during Friday. There may or may not have been a basis to the rumour but it's irrelevant. Their job is to spin not to provide an information service (As do all the others obviously).
Do CCHQ control Stephen Bush?
Have Stephen Bush and Mexican Pete ever been seen in the same room?
Catching up I see than 28 Jobs Bradley got a bit of a spanking in the D2N2 Mayor position (so to speak).
Lab 180k votes. Con 130k votes. Grn 50k+ votes.
I wonder where they voted for the Green. Last time I looked there was only one Green Councillor in Notts/Derbys County Seats. So perhaps cyclists in Nottingham.
Never have so many words been written about the outcome of an election in which not a single vote has yet been counted.
It's ridiculous that they haven't even started counting yet.
Yes it is. Mind you, in my ward we had a council by-election yesterday (no other election apart from PCC) and they're not going to do the count until Sunday afternoon. It will take less than an hour, I'd guess. Baffling.
Ended up pretty good for the Lib Dems, but the media roadshow has moved on. A shame.
I was just thinking that.
Their better results came through now and it now looks a pretty decent performance, but it is getting little attention.
They need to have the shire counties declare earlier, so they can gain a better starting narrative. But of course there are logistical challenges there.
Wait until they go mad for the pyrrhic (actually worse than pyrrhic) Susan Hall victory. She’s going to be a proper albatross around the neck.
If Susan Hall wins on a turnout differential you can expect Labour to spend the entire campaign pointing to it and saying "see, if you can't be arsed voting, or vote for the cranky party then you get the Tories again".
EDIT: I'd say, worryingly, that if Khan does lose it means that the Tories will run more of their awful, GOP style "THE MUZLIMS ARE COMING FOR YOU CULTURE" ads and it will be very unedifying.
It was more scaring motorists about Sadiq Khan's pay-per-mile driving charge plans (which SK denies but he would, wouldn't he).
Ended up pretty good for the Lib Dems, but the media roadshow has moved on. A shame.
I was just thinking that.
Their better results came through now and it now looks a pretty decent performance, but it is getting little attention.
Edit: The Gloucester results are just coming through and it looks like the LDs are scoring quite well there.
Yes, it's been frustrating waiting for the LD target areas to declare but not too bad at all. Good win in Tunbridge Wells and progress in a number of areas. I think taking Gloucester may be a step too far but we'll see.
Wait until they go mad for the pyrrhic (actually worse than pyrrhic) Susan Hall victory. She’s going to be a proper albatross around the neck.
If Susan Hall wins on a turnout differential you can expect Labour to spend the entire campaign pointing to it and saying "see, if you can't be arsed voting, or vote for the cranky party then you get the Tories again".
EDIT: I'd say, worryingly, that if Khan does lose it means that the Tories will run more of their awful, GOP style "THE MUZLIMS ARE COMING FOR YOU CULTURE" ads and it will be very unedifying.
That will negate the Gaza deflation of Labour's Muslim vote though.
Ended up pretty good for the Lib Dems, but the media roadshow has moved on. A shame.
I was just thinking that.
Their better results came through now and it now looks a pretty decent performance, but it is getting little attention.
Edit: The Gloucester results are just coming through and it looks like the LDs are scoring quite well there.
Yes, it's been frustrating waiting for the LD target areas to declare but not too bad at all. Good win in Tunbridge Wells and progress in a number of areas. I think taking Gloucester may be a step too far but we'll see.
There’s still an outside chance of beating the Tory seat share. That would be excellent PR.
Ended up pretty good for the Lib Dems, but the media roadshow has moved on. A shame.
I was just thinking that.
Their better results came through now and it now looks a pretty decent performance, but it is getting little attention.
Edit: The Gloucester results are just coming through and it looks like the LDs are scoring quite well there.
Yes, it's been frustrating waiting for the LD target areas to declare but not too bad at all. Good win in Tunbridge Wells and progress in a number of areas. I think taking Gloucester may be a step too far but we'll see.
It looks like they are piling up a lot of votes but not very efficiently.
They ran a close second in the Cops race, but I think it's fair to say both front-runners had strong CVs.
What's the sweet spot for this great metropolis? Khan but humbled?
Because even accepting that Khan is at best adequate and at worst mediocre, it's hard to see that Mayor Hall (who can't even look after her own travel pass) improves on that. More likely, she makes it all a lot worse.
I don’t expect anyone else to be interested but if LLMs can speedily train robots to do ANYTHING via simulation then that is epochal. All the stuff we thought was hard-to-impossible, for robots, becomes trivially easy
So yes they will be able to stack @Benpointer’s dishwasher. But also: nursing care, driving (!), waitering, massage, plumbing, cleaning, all the boring chores and all the difficult manual tasks
It is getting very hard to see what jobs, if any, will survive this. Cognitive AND physical jobs will go
Never have so many words been written about the outcome of an election in which not a single vote has yet been counted.
I think something similar happened in 2021 with all sorts of "rumours" Bailey had won or was running Khan very close. Curious how some on Twitter were seeing a count before the verification had begun.
I do wonder if the process could be improved to count on Friday but we had three ballot papers and nominally three ballot boxes but to imagine every ballot paper went into the right box in every polling station in London - no, I don't believe it either.
I'm sure there will be all sorts of tweets starting "I'm hearing that" or "Someone at the count has told me" or "My source at CCHQ is confident that" tomorrow.
Facts, opinions, rumour, market manipulation - the lines are blurred.
Reform polled about 6.5% in the by-election in Bromley . Khan needs Reform to poll minimum 5% across London .
I don't think they'll get more than 3%.
I assume Reform types will see an opportunity to vote out Khan, so swing behind the Tory.
I can't even believe we are discussing a Khan loss, it seems so improbable. However, I haven't lived in that London since Ken was mayor, so no idea of things on the ground.
I notice no-one is starting any 'Andy Burnham has lost Manchester' rumours.
I’m hearing Andy Burnham has lost Manchester. You heard it here first.
A stupid post to put on a betting site. That might have got you banned when Mike was in charge.
We are in the period of the phoney war. War has been declared, a massive barrage of shelling with the red scourge conquering new places. But the big battle lies ahead, and the armchair generals are poking a stick at the ashes and looking through their tinted/blinkered specs looking for guidance.
I think the Sunak presser in Sheffield Teesside is the moment of the most shark-jumping for the blues. A win which - combined with results elsewhere - demonstrates that they will be obliterated once the fighting starts properly. And yet for now, the mood in team Sunak is WE'RE ALRIGHT! WE'RE ALRIGHT!
If the Hall win is just a confection from CCHQ it has been quite clever as the Blackpool by election the Metro Mayors and the X00 lost Councillors has been lost in the fog of Khan's assumed defeat.
Rabbit and AndyJS have done their bit on here too.
I don't want Susan Hall or Sadiq Khan to be mayor. I wouldn't have voted for either of them if I lived in London. There's a difference between making predictions and what you want to happen.
Theorising about polls/elections, and what they might mean for future elections seems to be frowned upon now. It's all your team vs MY TEAM
Ended up pretty good for the Lib Dems, but the media roadshow has moved on. A shame.
I was just thinking that.
Their better results came through now and it now looks a pretty decent performance, but it is getting little attention.
Edit: The Gloucester results are just coming through and it looks like the LDs are scoring quite well there.
Better targeting but still a long way from the glory days nationally.
The LibDems got over a 20% NEV at every local elections from 1991 to 2009, peaking at 30% in 2003.
It's been a long road back from the disasters of 2010-15 when the party took four rounds of election losses before the GE catastrophe and in truth there's a way to go yet.
The Conservatives found the road back hard in the late 90s and 00s and will probably find the same in the mid to late 20s and 30s.
What's the sweet spot for this great metropolis? Khan but humbled?
Because even accepting that Khan is at best adequate and at worst mediocre, it's hard to see that Mayor Hall (who can't even look after her own travel pass) improves on that. More likely, she makes it all a lot worse.
We can't have Susan Hall as our Mayor.
But think of the brand damage she would do to the Conservatives.
Reform polled about 6.5% in the by-election in Bromley . Khan needs Reform to poll minimum 5% across London .
I don't think they'll get more than 3%.
I assume Reform types will see an opportunity to vote out Khan, so swing behind the Tory.
I can't even believe we are discussing a Khan loss, it seems so improbable. However, I haven't lived in that London since Ken was mayor, so no idea of things on the ground.
I notice no-one is starting any 'Andy Burnham has lost Manchester' rumours.
I’m hearing Andy Burnham has lost Manchester. You heard it here first.
A stupid post to put on a betting site. That might have got you banned when Mike was in charge.
The current double whammy of a Shoes appreciation course and a Coldplay listening hour stack up as far harsher though!
Reform polled about 6.5% in the by-election in Bromley . Khan needs Reform to poll minimum 5% across London .
I don't think they'll get more than 3%.
I assume Reform types will see an opportunity to vote out Khan, so swing behind the Tory.
I can't even believe we are discussing a Khan loss, it seems so improbable. However, I haven't lived in that London since Ken was mayor, so no idea of things on the ground.
I notice no-one is starting any 'Andy Burnham has lost Manchester' rumours.
I’m hearing Andy Burnham has lost Manchester. You heard it here first.
A stupid post to put on a betting site. That might have got you banned when Mike was in charge.
Oh don’t be a killjoy. It was a mildly amusing and obvious joke
Reform polled about 6.5% in the by-election in Bromley . Khan needs Reform to poll minimum 5% across London .
I don't think they'll get more than 3%.
I assume Reform types will see an opportunity to vote out Khan, so swing behind the Tory.
I can't even believe we are discussing a Khan loss, it seems so improbable. However, I haven't lived in that London since Ken was mayor, so no idea of things on the ground.
I notice no-one is starting any 'Andy Burnham has lost Manchester' rumours.
I’m hearing Andy Burnham has lost Manchester. You heard it here first.
A stupid post to put on a betting site. That might have got you banned when Mike was in charge.
The current double whammy of a Shoes appreciation course and a Coldplay listening hour stack up as far harsher though!
Catching up I see than 28 Jobs Bradley got a bit of a spanking in the D2N2 Mayor position (so to speak).
Lab 180k votes. Con 130k votes. Grn 50k+ votes.
I wonder where they voted for the Green. Last time I looked there was only one Green Councillor in Notts/Derbys County Seats. So perhaps cyclists in Nottingham.
To add the rest:
Reform's 49,201 votes. Independent Matt Relf received 23,359 votes. Liberal Democrat received 15,970.
Not sure who the Indy is, but he loves about 1.5 miles from me; I think I would put a "Bungalow Party" hat on him. The Ashfield Lab candidate is even closer to me.
Update. The Indy candidate is a Ashfield Independent Councillor running using a different party title, presumably to avoid Zadrozny's problems coming up and to appeal beyod Ashfield. That will be a local vote, then.
It's also interesting how far the Greens may split the Centre-Left vote.
Ended up pretty good for the Lib Dems, but the media roadshow has moved on. A shame.
I was just thinking that.
Their better results came through now and it now looks a pretty decent performance, but it is getting little attention.
Edit: The Gloucester results are just coming through and it looks like the LDs are scoring quite well there.
The LibDems could end with more councillors elected than the Tories, on a significantly lower NEV. Which suggests they are targeting more effectively.
They did well in the Surrey PCC, running the Tories reasonably close for second, and walking some districts like Woking.
Yes, I am sure you are right as regards the national picture, Ian. I was referring to Gloucester, where the results look a bit 'lumpy' - some thumping majorities and some near misses.
The Greens thrashed Labour, but left two short of Majority.
Bit surprised that Labour outperformed Greens by nearly 9% in the PCC votes cast in Bristol and then get under them in the locals. Mind you, I did exactly that, voted Green in the locals and Labour in the PCC.
What's the sweet spot for this great metropolis? Khan but humbled?
Because even accepting that Khan is at best adequate and at worst mediocre, it's hard to see that Mayor Hall (who can't even look after her own travel pass) improves on that. More likely, she makes it all a lot worse.
We can't have Susan Hall as our Mayor.
But think of the brand damage she would do to the Conservatives.
I do love posts like this.
Brand damage done to the Conservatives if they lose badly, brand damage done to the Conservatives if they win.
It's almost as if no matter how they perform it's a bad outcome.
Reform seem to have won two, in separate Havant wards both taken by Labour but three-member wards where the Tories had a full slate but Labour only had two candidates and the LibDems also didn’t put up a full team. Looks like Labour and LibDem voters used their third vote to put the reform candidate in?
Reform polled about 6.5% in the by-election in Bromley . Khan needs Reform to poll minimum 5% across London .
I don't think they'll get more than 3%.
I assume Reform types will see an opportunity to vote out Khan, so swing behind the Tory.
I can't even believe we are discussing a Khan loss, it seems so improbable. However, I haven't lived in that London since Ken was mayor, so no idea of things on the ground.
I notice no-one is starting any 'Andy Burnham has lost Manchester' rumours.
I’m hearing Andy Burnham has lost Manchester. You heard it here first.
A stupid post to put on a betting site. That might have got you banned when Mike was in charge.
The current double whammy of a Shoes appreciation course and a Coldplay listening hour stack up as far harsher though!
Woking is now a Tory free zone. I lived there for many years from the age of 9 and it was always solid Tory. The idea that there is not a single one left is bewildering.
The Greens thrashed Labour, but left two short of Majority.
I still think Thangam will hold Bristol Central and reasonably comfortably.
No. She has to fight Bristols central - the actual green darkness in the heart of this megalopolis - against the national Green Leader. Thangam Debbonaire Is toast.
And spare a thought for everyone who has to live down there in the whacky west - all their cars will be banned by next week and the city twinned with rafah.
Have these weirdos taken control of the City’s education?
What's the sweet spot for this great metropolis? Khan but humbled?
Because even accepting that Khan is at best adequate and at worst mediocre, it's hard to see that Mayor Hall (who can't even look after her own travel pass) improves on that. More likely, she makes it all a lot worse.
We can't have Susan Hall as our Mayor.
But think of the brand damage she would do to the Conservatives.
I do love posts like this.
Brand damage done to the Conservatives if they lose badly, brand damage done to the Conservatives if they win.
It's almost as if no matter how they perform it's a bad outcome.
Obviously you would never, never, speculate on how when Starmer’s Labour win the next general election they will quickly shit the bed and lose popularity. That would be quite below you.
I don’t expect anyone else to be interested but if LLMs can speedily train robots to do ANYTHING via simulation then that is epochal. All the stuff we thought was hard-to-impossible, for robots, becomes trivially easy
So yes they will be able to stack @Benpointer’s dishwasher. But also: nursing care, driving (!), waitering, massage, plumbing, cleaning, all the boring chores and all the difficult manual tasks
It is getting very hard to see what jobs, if any, will survive this. Cognitive AND physical jobs will go
There was quite an interesting discussing on the BBC News channel last night - Christian Fraser had a couple of guests who made some good and interesting points. One was some hippy-looking chap that gave a really good description of some of the issues.
However, what they didn't say. The big thing is that AI doesn't think - it just doesn't. And it's really important to understand that in the context of AI fears. A runaway people-killing robot will (currently) have been launched on us by a person. There's not even the slightest hint that that will change. Currently it's a bit like taking a random firework of unknownb origin and lighting the blue touchpaper - you have no idea what it's going to do.
What's the sweet spot for this great metropolis? Khan but humbled?
Because even accepting that Khan is at best adequate and at worst mediocre, it's hard to see that Mayor Hall (who can't even look after her own travel pass) improves on that. More likely, she makes it all a lot worse.
We can't have Susan Hall as our Mayor.
But think of the brand damage she would do to the Conservatives.
For those of us who live in London reversing ULEZ would be a public health disaster.
Suella Watch: Looks good for the next Tory leader, while the rest of Havant has been poor for the Tories, the three wards that are part of Fareham and Waterlooville returned 9/9 Conservatives.
Fareham is not part of Havant.
I know, but the new constituency of Fareham and Waterlooville contains seven wards from Fareham Borough, three from Havant Borough and two from City of Winchester.
Reform polled about 6.5% in the by-election in Bromley . Khan needs Reform to poll minimum 5% across London .
I don't think they'll get more than 3%.
I assume Reform types will see an opportunity to vote out Khan, so swing behind the Tory.
I can't even believe we are discussing a Khan loss, it seems so improbable. However, I haven't lived in that London since Ken was mayor, so no idea of things on the ground.
I notice no-one is starting any 'Andy Burnham has lost Manchester' rumours.
I’m hearing Andy Burnham has lost Manchester. You heard it here first.
A stupid post to put on a betting site. That might have got you banned when Mike was in charge.
The current double whammy of a Shoes appreciation course and a Coldplay listening hour stack up as far harsher though!
NYT - US Rep. Henry Cuellar Indicted Over Bribery Scheme
The Texas Democrat and his wife were charged with participating in a $600,000 bribery scheme involving Azerbaijan and a Mexican bank, according to a federal indictment.
Keir has to choose his problems. His first problem is that he wants to govern as PM. For this you can't do student politics, you have, as Obama and Blair discovered, have to do the politics of tragedy - where whatever you do you are going to be allied to a mixture of wicked and sub optimal people and nations. Our current set of alliances require us, so far, to choose between supporting Israel or supporting those who wish Israel's extinction. To denounce Israel and support Hamas would win him parts of Bradford and Oldham but lose him most of our friends.
His other problem is choosing between the Muslim voter and the two million Tory voters he needs. He probably can't have both.
What's the sweet spot for this great metropolis? Khan but humbled?
Because even accepting that Khan is at best adequate and at worst mediocre, it's hard to see that Mayor Hall (who can't even look after her own travel pass) improves on that. More likely, she makes it all a lot worse.
We can't have Susan Hall as our Mayor.
But think of the brand damage she would do to the Conservatives.
For those of us who live in London reversing ULEZ would be a public health disaster.
It’s total virtue signalling. Practically everyone has a ULEZ compliant vehicle now anyway. She probably wouldn’t even bother making the change.
That’s the Tories: virtue-signalling cosplay Republicans.
What boils my piss is how all these nice Tory areas in the south still retain their district councils when we were basically made to unitarise 15 or more years ago.
Catching up I see than 28 Jobs Bradley got a bit of a spanking in the D2N2 Mayor position (so to speak).
Lab 180k votes. Con 130k votes. Grn 50k+ votes.
I wonder where they voted for the Green. Last time I looked there was only one Green Councillor in Notts/Derbys County Seats. So perhaps cyclists in Nottingham.
To add the rest:
Reform's 49,201 votes. Independent Matt Relf received 23,359 votes. Liberal Democrat received 15,970.
Not sure who the Indy is, but he loves about 1.5 miles from me; I think I would put a "Bungalow Party" hat on him. The Ashfield Lab candidate is even closer to me.
Update. The Indy candidate is a Ashfield Independent Councillor running using a different party title, presumably to avoid Zadrozny's problems coming up and to appeal beyod Ashfield. That will be a local vote, then.
It's also interesting how far the Greens may split the Centre-Left vote.
You're not sure who the Indy is but you know all about his sex life?
Catching up I see than 28 Jobs Bradley got a bit of a spanking in the D2N2 Mayor position (so to speak).
Lab 180k votes. Con 130k votes. Grn 50k+ votes.
I wonder where they voted for the Green. Last time I looked there was only one Green Councillor in Notts/Derbys County Seats. So perhaps cyclists in Nottingham.
To add the rest:
Reform's 49,201 votes. Independent Matt Relf received 23,359 votes. Liberal Democrat received 15,970.
Not sure who the Indy is, but he loves about 1.5 miles from me; I think I would put a "Bungalow Party" hat on him. The Ashfield Lab candidate is even closer to me.
Update. The Indy candidate is a Ashfield Independent Councillor running using a different party title, presumably to avoid Zadrozny's problems coming up and to appeal beyod Ashfield. That will be a local vote, then.
It's also interesting how far the Greens may split the Centre-Left vote.
Looking again, the Green Candidate was from Chesterfield, so there will some vote from there. Also cycling country more than other places up here, but also a history of voting Left.
Looking back, the fact Streeting wrote and posted that desperate and ugly tweet implies that even a few days ago Labour sensed trouble in London, despite the polls
That’s a risky tweet designed to shore up the BME vote, especially Muslims disenchanted by Gaza
It might be personal. There is a group of Muslim activists aiming to oust Wes Streeting at the forthcoming general election.
I don’t expect anyone else to be interested but if LLMs can speedily train robots to do ANYTHING via simulation then that is epochal. All the stuff we thought was hard-to-impossible, for robots, becomes trivially easy
So yes they will be able to stack @Benpointer’s dishwasher. But also: nursing care, driving (!), waitering, massage, plumbing, cleaning, all the boring chores and all the difficult manual tasks
It is getting very hard to see what jobs, if any, will survive this. Cognitive AND physical jobs will go
There was quite an interesting discussing on the BBC News channel last night - Christian Fraser had a couple of guests who made some good and interesting points. One was some hippy-looking chap that gave a really good description of some of the issues.
However, what they didn't say. The big thing is that AI doesn't think - it just doesn't. And it's really important to understand that in the context of AI fears. A runaway people-killing robot will (currently) have been launched on us by a person. There's not even the slightest hint that that will change. Currently it's a bit like taking a random firework of unknownb origin and lighting the blue touchpaper - you have no idea what it's going to do.
We have no idea if they think. Mainly because we have no idea what “thinking” is. No one has successfully described consciousness/sentience - described how it works, what it does, where it is located, which creatures have it and which don’t - in 3000 years. I don’t believe “Omnium” has personally broken that epistemological losing streak
You keep coming out with this midwit perspective and it doesn’t get any smarter
What's the sweet spot for this great metropolis? Khan but humbled?
Because even accepting that Khan is at best adequate and at worst mediocre, it's hard to see that Mayor Hall (who can't even look after her own travel pass) improves on that. More likely, she makes it all a lot worse.
We can't have Susan Hall as our Mayor.
But think of the brand damage she would do to the Conservatives.
I do love posts like this.
Brand damage done to the Conservatives if they lose badly, brand damage done to the Conservatives if they win.
It's almost as if no matter how they perform it's a bad outcome.
Obviously you would never, never, speculate on how when Starmer’s Labour win the next general election they will quickly shit the bed and lose popularity. That would be quite below you.
Well, they will. But I don't think winning is a "bad" outcome for them.
If you're an avid follower of my posts you'll recall I've said, more than once in the past, that I think it's essential they deliver for their supporters.
Otherwise, one day, we really will get a hard left-wing government that will blow everything up and ruin us all.
What's the sweet spot for this great metropolis? Khan but humbled?
Because even accepting that Khan is at best adequate and at worst mediocre, it's hard to see that Mayor Hall (who can't even look after her own travel pass) improves on that. More likely, she makes it all a lot worse.
We can't have Susan Hall as our Mayor.
But think of the brand damage she would do to the Conservatives.
I do love posts like this.
Brand damage done to the Conservatives if they lose badly, brand damage done to the Conservatives if they win.
It's almost as if no matter how they perform it's a bad outcome.
Obviously you would never, never, speculate on how when Starmer’s Labour win the next general election they will quickly shit the bed and lose popularity. That would be quite below you.
Well, they will. But I don't think winning is a "bad" outcome for them.
If you're an avid follower of my posts you'll recall I've said, more than once in the past, that I think it's essential they deliver for their supporters.
Otherwise, one day, we really will get a hard left-wing government that will blow everything up and ruin us all.
And I honestly believe - I do actually - that Hall winning the mayoralty would be better nationally for Labour than Khan winning again.
I did my bit for Susan today: voted Rob Blackie. And resented the fact the gerrymandering government took away my second preference for naked partisan reasons. But it may have “worked” for them. That and the photo ID wheeze.
Do you know what, for once I think you're probably right. I think he'll come home with a result that we'd call "fine" in any other year.
But I'm not going to roast any other posters who think otherwise on the basis that no one knows what's going on and the people confidently predicting this or that have a 50% chance of looking stupid tomorrow.
“for once”????
Tut
Okay. I'll give you the Liz Truss rope-ring.
Right: Covid Lab leak Lorry bomb AI Ukraine not winning; now losing UAPs a serious matter China overtakes America on GDP by PPP And others
Wrong: Liz Truss upsiding What3Words And others
Incidentally on AI if you’re hoping to retrain as a plumber, don’t get too excited. Turns out LLMs are brilliant at training robots to work via simulation
Here the LLM near-instantly trained a robot dog to balance on a yoga ball. Incroyable
I don’t expect anyone else to be interested but if LLMs can speedily train robots to do ANYTHING via simulation then that is epochal. All the stuff we thought was hard-to-impossible, for robots, becomes trivially easy
So yes they will be able to stack @Benpointer’s dishwasher. But also: nursing care, driving (!), waitering, massage, plumbing, cleaning, all the boring chores and all the difficult manual tasks
It is getting very hard to see what jobs, if any, will survive this. Cognitive AND physical jobs will go
There was quite an interesting discussing on the BBC News channel last night - Christian Fraser had a couple of guests who made some good and interesting points. One was some hippy-looking chap that gave a really good description of some of the issues.
However, what they didn't say. The big thing is that AI doesn't think - it just doesn't. And it's really important to understand that in the context of AI fears. A runaway people-killing robot will (currently) have been launched on us by a person. There's not even the slightest hint that that will change. Currently it's a bit like taking a random firework of unknownb origin and lighting the blue touchpaper - you have no idea what it's going to do.
We have no idea if they think. Mainly because we have no idea what “thinking” is. No one has successfully described consciousness/sentience - described how it works, what it does, where it is located, which creatures have it and which don’t - in 3000 years. I don’t believe “Omnium” has personally broken that epistemological losing streak
You keep coming out with this midwit perspective and it doesn’t get any smarter
I'll have to up my midwit game then! You're right of course. I don't know, and you don't know. Doesn't hurt to try to think over the issues though.
As I mentioned earlier I have been using this forum to keep up with the days events as best as I could, with two of my grandchildren (12 and 10) to collect from school and give them their tea, and reading the thread header and just tuning into Sky it seems Labour would be 32 seats short of a majority on today's votes which I find astonishing in view of all the polling and narrative by political commentators
I would suggest this makes the next GE most likely to be November-December, and as many wise heads in politics say 'a week is a long time in politics' and 'events' not least Gaza
Looking back, the fact Streeting wrote and posted that desperate and ugly tweet implies that even a few days ago Labour sensed trouble in London, despite the polls
That’s a risky tweet designed to shore up the BME vote, especially Muslims disenchanted by Gaza
It might be personal. There is a group of Muslim activists aiming to oust Wes Streeting at the forthcoming general election.
According to Beeb running totals, Tories down 432 seats with 8 councils left to declare. Not sure they'll pass 500!
It's 461 saved vs. 432 lost, so about 100 to go. It will matter for the narrative, but not really for the reality.
Looking at the councils left with the number of Tory defences: Stroud 20 Dorset 14 remaining North Tyneside 7 Salford 3 Warrington 11 Epping Forest about 17 Elmbridge 3 Gloucester 19
So I think the Conservatives would have to do really badly from now on to end with 50% losses or 500 losses.
What's the sweet spot for this great metropolis? Khan but humbled?
Because even accepting that Khan is at best adequate and at worst mediocre, it's hard to see that Mayor Hall (who can't even look after her own travel pass) improves on that. More likely, she makes it all a lot worse.
We can't have Susan Hall as our Mayor.
But think of the brand damage she would do to the Conservatives.
I do love posts like this.
Brand damage done to the Conservatives if they lose badly, brand damage done to the Conservatives if they win.
It's almost as if no matter how they perform it's a bad outcome.
Yes, it was funny to see the panic of thinking Khan might lose when he traded 1.33 shapeshift into glee about how it is good for Sir Keir.
SKS must be shitting himself now, Khan's back into 1.11!
These post office lawyers and managers really do overstretch the 'I'm incompetent, not a liar' defence I see.
Former senior Post Office lawyer Jarnail Singh has denied that he knew about bugs in the Horizon system while sub-postmaster prosecutions continued for three years.
However, lead counsel for the Horizon inquiry Jason Beer accused Mr Singh of telling a "big fat lie".
Mr Singh was forwarded an email on the eve of the 2010 trial of Seema Misra, a sub-postmistress who was sent to jail while pregnant.
It identified bugs in the Horizon system that should have been disclosed in Mrs Misra's trial.
Mr Singh denied having read the email, despite being presented with evidence that he saved a copy to his hard drive and printed it off...
When asked whether it was saved on the hard drive of his computer, Mr Singh said: "I don't even know what you're talking about.
"I don't know how these things worked."
"You don't know how to save a document?" Mr Beer asked.
"I didn't know how to do it," Mr Singh responded, saying he wouldn't have had the technical knowledge either to do that or to understand the document itself.
What ever happened to honesty and integrity. And he's a lawyer, for goodness sake.
No one likes admitting they cocked up for reasons other than honest incompetence, but when there's evidence as overwhelming you will have a lot more credibility by having a damascene conversion about how you see actions than stubbornly insisting black is white and you are just an goofball. Especially when they are high powered individuals who probably have spent careers insisting how brilliant they are.
It's more dignified for a start.
He was notorious within the PO long before the scandal became public. He has plainly lied to the Inquiry on numerous occasions. You would consider him laughable, except that he contributed significantly to many serious miscarriages of justice.
It is extraordinary that the PO should have employed such a man in a senior legal role. It speaks volumes about the generally dysfunctional nature of the organisation and its apparent lack of concern for plain, simple honesty or justice.
There is a good case for banging up every single Board member for the 20 year period in question, every single senior executive, and every sod involved in the persecution of the Subpostmasters, right down to the pond life that called themselves Investigators. The legal firms which advised the PO should naturally be included.
It won't happen, but if the Police do start feeling collars, they could do no better than start with Mr Jamail Singh.
According to Beeb running totals, Tories down 432 seats with 8 councils left to declare. Not sure they'll pass 500!
It's 461 saved vs. 432 lost, so about 100 to go. It will matter for the narrative, but not really for the reality.
Looking at the councils left with the number of Tory defences: Stroud 20 Dorset 14 remaining North Tyneside 7 Salford 3 Warrington 11 Epping Forest about 17 Elmbridge 3 Gloucester 19
So I think the Conservatives would have to do really badly from now on to end with 50% losses or 500 losses.
What's the sweet spot for this great metropolis? Khan but humbled?
Because even accepting that Khan is at best adequate and at worst mediocre, it's hard to see that Mayor Hall (who can't even look after her own travel pass) improves on that. More likely, she makes it all a lot worse.
We can't have Susan Hall as our Mayor.
But think of the brand damage she would do to the Conservatives.
For those of us who live in London reversing ULEZ would be a public health disaster.
It’s total virtue signalling. Practically everyone has a ULEZ compliant vehicle now anyway.
We don't
But I couldn't bring myself to vote Tory, so I voted for Binface instead
As I mentioned earlier I have been using this forum to keep up with the days events as best as I could, with two of my grandchildren (12 and 10) to collect from school and give them their tea, and reading the thread header and just tuning into Sky it seems Labour would be 32 seats short of a majority on today's votes which I find astonishing in view of all the polling and narrative by political commentators
I would suggest this makes the next GE most likely to be November-December, and as many wise heads in politics say 'a week is a long time in politics' and 'events' not least Gaza
I do not expect Sunak to be replaced either
Yes looks like Q4 now. I think the chance of a June/Q3 election has gone now.
According to Beeb running totals, Tories down 432 seats with 8 councils left to declare. Not sure they'll pass 500!
It's 461 saved vs. 432 lost, so about 100 to go. It will matter for the narrative, but not really for the reality.
Looking at the councils left with the number of Tory defences: Stroud 20 Dorset 14 remaining North Tyneside 7 Salford 3 Warrington 11 Epping Forest about 17 Elmbridge 3 Gloucester 19
So I think the Conservatives would have to do really badly from now on to end with 50% losses or 500 losses.
Agreed, still pretty awful though.
Anyway, enough fun for one day. Until tomorrow.
Bad, obviously, but no worse than generally expected.
I don’t expect anyone else to be interested but if LLMs can speedily train robots to do ANYTHING via simulation then that is epochal. All the stuff we thought was hard-to-impossible, for robots, becomes trivially easy
So yes they will be able to stack @Benpointer’s dishwasher. But also: nursing care, driving (!), waitering, massage, plumbing, cleaning, all the boring chores and all the difficult manual tasks
It is getting very hard to see what jobs, if any, will survive this. Cognitive AND physical jobs will go
What's the sweet spot for this great metropolis? Khan but humbled?
Because even accepting that Khan is at best adequate and at worst mediocre, it's hard to see that Mayor Hall (who can't even look after her own travel pass) improves on that. More likely, she makes it all a lot worse.
We can't have Susan Hall as our Mayor.
But think of the brand damage she would do to the Conservatives.
For those of us who live in London reversing ULEZ would be a public health disaster.
It’s total virtue signalling. Practically everyone has a ULEZ compliant vehicle now anyway. She probably wouldn’t even bother making the change.
That’s the Tories: virtue-signalling cosplay Republicans.
Consistent with some of the posts above, a Khan victory could only be interpreted as a resounding endorsement of ULEZ.
I also wonder if some of the rumours flying around are flak put up by the Sunak camp to stall the momentum of the grey suits.
What's the sweet spot for this great metropolis? Khan but humbled?
Because even accepting that Khan is at best adequate and at worst mediocre, it's hard to see that Mayor Hall (who can't even look after her own travel pass) improves on that. More likely, she makes it all a lot worse.
We can't have Susan Hall as our Mayor.
But think of the brand damage she would do to the Conservatives.
I do love posts like this.
Brand damage done to the Conservatives if they lose badly, brand damage done to the Conservatives if they win.
It's almost as if no matter how they perform it's a bad outcome.
Yes, it was funny to see the panic of thinking Khan might lose when he traded 1.33 shapeshift into glee about how it is good for Sir Keir.
SKS must be shitting himself now, Khan's back into 1.11!
Seriously. Susan Hall is a mentalist. Bad news for London but really not good news for the Conservatives either.
I say that as a member and activist for the Lib Dems who will come a distant third or probably fourth. Despite having a candidate who’s intelligent and not a mentalist.
I don’t care whether SKS is shitting himself or cracking open the champers but I like roughly 70% of the voting population would love to get rid of this woeful government.
Was planning a comment on PCCs, which seems to have evaporated.
At present it looks like an equal split Tory/Lab with 23 results in. Before it was 30 Tory:6 or 7 Lab, so good progress for Labour but not dominant.
In the D2N2 zone the incumbent Personal Crime Commissioner for Notts has been heavily defeated (my Conservative Friends were commenting "WTF?") when she stood. The Cons have kept Derbyshire PCC.
Do you know what, for once I think you're probably right. I think he'll come home with a result that we'd call "fine" in any other year.
But I'm not going to roast any other posters who think otherwise on the basis that no one knows what's going on and the people confidently predicting this or that have a 50% chance of looking stupid tomorrow.
“for once”????
Tut
Okay. I'll give you the Liz Truss rope-ring.
Right: Covid Lab leak Lorry bomb AI Ukraine not winning; now losing UAPs a serious matter China overtakes America on GDP by PPP And others
Wrong: Liz Truss upsiding What3Words And others
Incidentally on AI if you’re hoping to retrain as a plumber, don’t get too excited. Turns out LLMs are brilliant at training robots to work via simulation
Here the LLM near-instantly trained a robot dog to balance on a yoga ball. Incroyable
You have UAPs on the wrong list. It’s fading away like the afterglow of a firework. There was never anything going on.
I never said there was any “there” there. I said something truly weird was happening in the American establishment. And it was. Mass contagious delusion stemming from a few credulous individuals was my best guess - and I think that was probably right
Possibly mixed in with the pentagon seeking money and/or obscuring real tech advances
Do you know what, for once I think you're probably right. I think he'll come home with a result that we'd call "fine" in any other year.
But I'm not going to roast any other posters who think otherwise on the basis that no one knows what's going on and the people confidently predicting this or that have a 50% chance of looking stupid tomorrow.
“for once”????
Tut
Okay. I'll give you the Liz Truss rope-ring.
Right: Covid Lab leak Lorry bomb AI Ukraine not winning; now losing UAPs a serious matter China overtakes America on GDP by PPP And others
Wrong: Liz Truss upsiding What3Words And others
Incidentally on AI if you’re hoping to retrain as a plumber, don’t get too excited. Turns out LLMs are brilliant at training robots to work via simulation
Here the LLM near-instantly trained a robot dog to balance on a yoga ball. Incroyable
You have UAPs on the wrong list. It’s fading away like the afterglow of a firework. There was never anything going on.
I never said there was any “there” there. I said something truly weird was happening in the American establishment. And it was. Mass contagious delusion stemming from a few credulous individuals was my best guess - and I think that was probably right
What's the sweet spot for this great metropolis? Khan but humbled?
Because even accepting that Khan is at best adequate and at worst mediocre, it's hard to see that Mayor Hall (who can't even look after her own travel pass) improves on that. More likely, she makes it all a lot worse.
We can't have Susan Hall as our Mayor.
But think of the brand damage she would do to the Conservatives.
For those of us who live in London reversing ULEZ would be a public health disaster.
It’s total virtue signalling. Practically everyone has a ULEZ compliant vehicle now anyway. She probably wouldn’t even bother making the change.
That’s the Tories: virtue-signalling cosplay Republicans.
Trouble is that the one thing everyone knows about Hall is that she will Scrap ULEZ-x. On Day One.
It's a damnfool promise- for a start, because it's not obvious that she can do it, or do without the money. (After all, the costs of expanding ULEZ, the cameras and the scrappage scheme, have all happened and that money isn't coming back.) But if she doesn't do it, she's broken a big promise by day two. And Zone 6 won't like that one bit.
It was an opposition promise, and it may not work if she finds herself in power.
(We've seen it a lot with Starmer, jettisoning pledges because they were nice pledges if he was on track to lose, but don't make sense as things to actually in government. We saw it with Cameron and that damnfool referendum in his manifesto when he didn't make sure there would be enough Lib Dem MPs to force him to dump it. Flip only knows what Sunak will put in his mainfesto for 2025-9.)
According to Beeb running totals, Tories down 432 seats with 8 councils left to declare. Not sure they'll pass 500!
It's 461 saved vs. 432 lost, so about 100 to go. It will matter for the narrative, but not really for the reality.
Looking at the councils left with the number of Tory defences: Stroud 20 Dorset 14 remaining North Tyneside 7 Salford 3 Warrington 11 Epping Forest about 17 Elmbridge 3 Gloucester 19
So I think the Conservatives would have to do really badly from now on to end with 50% losses or 500 losses.
Yes, indeed. Though I do wonder jusy how much their defence really cost nationally...
Lucky they have a handful of backers with very deep pockets, who are able to donate generously, without wanting anything back in return....
I don’t expect anyone else to be interested but if LLMs can speedily train robots to do ANYTHING via simulation then that is epochal. All the stuff we thought was hard-to-impossible, for robots, becomes trivially easy
So yes they will be able to stack @Benpointer’s dishwasher. But also: nursing care, driving (!), waitering, massage, plumbing, cleaning, all the boring chores and all the difficult manual tasks
It is getting very hard to see what jobs, if any, will survive this. Cognitive AND physical jobs will go
There was quite an interesting discussing on the BBC News channel last night - Christian Fraser had a couple of guests who made some good and interesting points. One was some hippy-looking chap that gave a really good description of some of the issues.
However, what they didn't say. The big thing is that AI doesn't think - it just doesn't. And it's really important to understand that in the context of AI fears. A runaway people-killing robot will (currently) have been launched on us by a person. There's not even the slightest hint that that will change. Currently it's a bit like taking a random firework of unknownb origin and lighting the blue touchpaper - you have no idea what it's going to do.
We have no idea if they think. Mainly because we have no idea what “thinking” is. No one has successfully described consciousness/sentience - described how it works, what it does, where it is located, which creatures have it and which don’t - in 3000 years. I don’t believe “Omnium” has personally broken that epistemological losing streak
You keep coming out with this midwit perspective and it doesn’t get any smarter
Yes. But there are options. If you believe, as most do, that thought/sentience actually is (is identical to) matter in particular configuration then there is no reason why AI should not have it. Ditto planets, stones and plastic ducks. Goodness knows how you find out. With humans you can only do it analogy, and sometimes you get filled with strange doubts.
If you are a rebel against this modern assumption (like me) then whatever sentience is, you wouldn't begin to know how to create it.
The proper modern materialist at least can offer the suggestion of constructing a brain from scratch. Good luck.
I don’t expect anyone else to be interested but if LLMs can speedily train robots to do ANYTHING via simulation then that is epochal. All the stuff we thought was hard-to-impossible, for robots, becomes trivially easy
So yes they will be able to stack @Benpointer’s dishwasher. But also: nursing care, driving (!), waitering, massage, plumbing, cleaning, all the boring chores and all the difficult manual tasks
It is getting very hard to see what jobs, if any, will survive this. Cognitive AND physical jobs will go
There was quite an interesting discussing on the BBC News channel last night - Christian Fraser had a couple of guests who made some good and interesting points. One was some hippy-looking chap that gave a really good description of some of the issues.
However, what they didn't say. The big thing is that AI doesn't think - it just doesn't. And it's really important to understand that in the context of AI fears. A runaway people-killing robot will (currently) have been launched on us by a person. There's not even the slightest hint that that will change. Currently it's a bit like taking a random firework of unknownb origin and lighting the blue touchpaper - you have no idea what it's going to do.
Anthropic (and others) are getting a pretty good insight into how 'the black box works' now. Coupled with probes into how diffusion models work and 'perceive' the image the are creating - I suspect we're not far being able to instrument these things, if we want.
And there are very strong signals already that the bigger models are creating their own 'world view' irrespective of how we train them. The paper a few months ago where, when they probed into the models 'black box', it had a 2D representation of an Othello board which it had never been trained on was quite intriguing for one. There do now seem to be strong signals that the larger LLM's have a sense of space, dimensions, time.
Do you know what, for once I think you're probably right. I think he'll come home with a result that we'd call "fine" in any other year.
But I'm not going to roast any other posters who think otherwise on the basis that no one knows what's going on and the people confidently predicting this or that have a 50% chance of looking stupid tomorrow.
“for once”????
Tut
Okay. I'll give you the Liz Truss rope-ring.
Right: Covid Lab leak Lorry bomb AI Ukraine not winning; now losing UAPs a serious matter China overtakes America on GDP by PPP And others
Wrong: Liz Truss upsiding What3Words And others
Incidentally on AI if you’re hoping to retrain as a plumber, don’t get too excited. Turns out LLMs are brilliant at training robots to work via simulation
Here the LLM near-instantly trained a robot dog to balance on a yoga ball. Incroyable
You have UAPs on the wrong list. It’s fading away like the afterglow of a firework. There was never anything going on.
I never said there was any “there” there. I said something truly weird was happening in the American establishment. And it was. Mass contagious delusion stemming from a few credulous individuals was my best guess - and I think that was probably right
Possibly mixed in with the pentagon seeking money and/or obscuring real tech advances
There was no mass delusion - there were a few senators, some already known believers, and a few stories in the papers. It was always obvious rubbish.
Was planning a comment on PCCs, which seems to have evaporated.
At present it looks like an equal split Tory/Lab with 23 results in. Before it was 30 Tory:6 or 7 Lab, so good progress for Labour but not dominant.
In the D2N2 zone the incumbent Personal Crime Commissioner for Notts has been heavily defeated (my Conservative Friends were commenting "WTF?") when she stood. The Cons have kept Derbyshire PCC.
These post office lawyers and managers really do overstretch the 'I'm incompetent, not a liar' defence I see.
Former senior Post Office lawyer Jarnail Singh has denied that he knew about bugs in the Horizon system while sub-postmaster prosecutions continued for three years.
However, lead counsel for the Horizon inquiry Jason Beer accused Mr Singh of telling a "big fat lie".
Mr Singh was forwarded an email on the eve of the 2010 trial of Seema Misra, a sub-postmistress who was sent to jail while pregnant.
It identified bugs in the Horizon system that should have been disclosed in Mrs Misra's trial.
Mr Singh denied having read the email, despite being presented with evidence that he saved a copy to his hard drive and printed it off...
When asked whether it was saved on the hard drive of his computer, Mr Singh said: "I don't even know what you're talking about.
"I don't know how these things worked."
"You don't know how to save a document?" Mr Beer asked.
"I didn't know how to do it," Mr Singh responded, saying he wouldn't have had the technical knowledge either to do that or to understand the document itself.
What ever happened to honesty and integrity. And he's a lawyer, for goodness sake.
No one likes admitting they cocked up for reasons other than honest incompetence, but when there's evidence as overwhelming you will have a lot more credibility by having a damascene conversion about how you see actions than stubbornly insisting black is white and you are just an goofball. Especially when they are high powered individuals who probably have spent careers insisting how brilliant they are.
It's more dignified for a start.
He was notorious within the PO long before the scandal became public. He has plainly lied to the Inquiry on numerous occasions. You would consider him laughable, except that he contributed significantly to many serious miscarriages of justice.
It is extraordinary that the PO should have employed such a man in a senior legal role. It speaks volumes about the generally dysfunctional nature of the organisation and its apparent lack of concern for plain, simple honesty or justice.
There is a good case for banging up every single Board member for the 20 year period in question, every single senior executive, and every sod involved in the persecution of the Subpostmasters, right down to the pond life that called themselves Investigators. The legal firms which advised the PO should naturally be included.
It won't happen, but if the Police do start feeling collars, they could do no better than start with Mr Jamail Singh.
Please God - let this happen.
Hearing that 'didn't know how to save a document' response made me burst out laughing. NVQ Word Processing Level 1 appears to have been beyond him, and yet he's a senior lawyer?
Comments
I'd now assess it as odds on.
As Labour only lost one seat to George on Rochdale, sounds more like a sigh of relief.
Is Liz Truss secretly working for Labour?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3h068QkWYHs
Times Radio How to Win an Election podcast recorded this morning.
Lab leak
Lorry bomb
AI
Ukraine not winning; now losing
UAPs a serious matter
China overtakes America on GDP by PPP
And others
Wrong: Liz Truss upsiding
What3Words
And others
Incidentally on AI if you’re hoping to retrain as a plumber, don’t get too excited. Turns out LLMs are brilliant at training robots to work via simulation
Here the LLM near-instantly trained a robot dog to balance on a yoga ball. Incroyable
https://twitter.com/DrJimFan/status/1786429467537088741
EDIT: I'd say, worryingly, that if Khan does lose it means that the Tories will run more of their awful, GOP style "THE MUZLIMS ARE COMING FOR YOU CULTURE" ads and it will be very unedifying.
A definite factor to consider
Their better results came through now and it now looks a pretty decent performance, but it is getting little attention.
Edit: The Gloucester results are just coming through and it looks like the LDs are scoring quite well there.
Lab 180k votes.
Con 130k votes.
Grn 50k+ votes.
I wonder where they voted for the Green. Last time I looked there was only one Green Councillor in Notts/Derbys County Seats. So perhaps cyclists in Nottingham.
They did well in the Surrey PCC, running the Tories reasonably close for second, and walking some districts like Woking.
The LibDems got over a 20% NEV at every local elections from 1991 to 2009, peaking at 30% in 2003.
I know you have all been waiting to see this.
The Greens thrashed Labour, but left two short of Majority.
They ran a close second in the Cops race, but I think it's fair to say both front-runners had strong CVs.
So yes they will be able to stack @Benpointer’s dishwasher. But also: nursing care, driving (!), waitering, massage, plumbing, cleaning, all the boring chores and all the difficult manual tasks
It is getting very hard to see what jobs, if any, will survive this. Cognitive AND physical jobs will go
I do wonder if the process could be improved to count on Friday but we had three ballot papers and nominally three ballot boxes but to imagine every ballot paper went into the right box in every polling station in London - no, I don't believe it either.
I'm sure there will be all sorts of tweets starting "I'm hearing that" or "Someone at the count has told me" or "My source at CCHQ is confident that" tomorrow.
Facts, opinions, rumour, market manipulation - the lines are blurred.
The Conservatives found the road back hard in the late 90s and 00s and will probably find the same in the mid to late 20s and 30s.
(PS - Is it Coldplay, I forget)
Dozens of council seats to the Greens, who are on 4-7% in polls, to two seats for Reform who are on 10-15%.
Reform's 49,201 votes.
Independent Matt Relf received 23,359 votes.
Liberal Democrat received 15,970.
Not sure who the Indy is, but he loves about 1.5 miles from me; I think I would put a "Bungalow Party" hat on him. The Ashfield Lab candidate is even closer to me.
Update. The Indy candidate is a Ashfield Independent Councillor running using a different party title, presumably to avoid Zadrozny's problems coming up and to appeal beyod Ashfield. That will be a local vote, then.
It's also interesting how far the Greens may split the Centre-Left vote.
Brand damage done to the Conservatives if they lose badly, brand damage done to the Conservatives if they win.
It's almost as if no matter how they perform it's a bad outcome.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFafPqsW3Cg
Thangam Debbonaire Is toast.
And spare a thought for everyone who has to live down there in the whacky west - all their cars will be banned by next week and the city twinned with rafah.
Have these weirdos taken control of the City’s education?
However, what they didn't say. The big thing is that AI doesn't think - it just doesn't. And it's really important to understand that in the context of AI fears. A runaway people-killing robot will (currently) have been launched on us by a person. There's not even the slightest hint that that will change. Currently it's a bit like taking a random firework of unknownb origin and lighting the blue touchpaper - you have no idea what it's going to do.
The Texas Democrat and his wife were charged with participating in a $600,000 bribery scheme involving Azerbaijan and a Mexican bank, according to a federal indictment.
His other problem is choosing between the Muslim voter and the two million Tory voters he needs. He probably can't have both.
That’s the Tories: virtue-signalling cosplay Republicans.
What’s all that about?
streak
You keep coming out with this midwit perspective and it doesn’t get any smarter
If you're an avid follower of my posts you'll recall I've said, more than once in the past, that I think it's essential they deliver for their supporters.
Otherwise, one day, we really will get a hard left-wing government that will blow everything up and ruin us all.
I did my bit for Susan today: voted Rob Blackie. And resented the fact the gerrymandering government took away my second preference for naked partisan reasons. But it may have “worked” for them. That and the photo ID wheeze.
As I mentioned earlier I have been using this forum to keep up with the days events as best as I could, with two of my grandchildren (12 and 10) to collect from school and give them their tea, and reading the thread header and just tuning into Sky it seems Labour would be 32 seats short of a majority on today's votes which I find astonishing in view of all the polling and narrative by political commentators
I would suggest this makes the next GE most likely to be November-December, and as many wise heads in politics say 'a week is a long time in politics' and 'events' not least Gaza
I do not expect Sunak to be replaced either
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.201750386
https://www.leannemohamad.co.uk/
Nice until you realise it's actually Sunak and the Tories running UK foreign policy at the moment!
Stroud 20
Dorset 14 remaining
North Tyneside 7
Salford 3
Warrington 11
Epping Forest about 17
Elmbridge 3
Gloucester 19
So I think the Conservatives would have to do really badly from now on to end with 50% losses or 500 losses.
SKS must be shitting himself now, Khan's back into 1.11!
Anyway, enough fun for one day. Until tomorrow.
But I couldn't bring myself to vote Tory, so I voted for Binface instead
Possibly 😈
Sleep well.
I also wonder if some of the rumours flying around are flak put up by the Sunak camp to stall the momentum of the grey suits.
I say that as a member and activist for the Lib Dems who will come a distant third or probably fourth. Despite having a candidate who’s intelligent and not a mentalist.
I don’t care whether SKS is shitting himself or cracking open the champers but I like roughly 70% of the voting population would love to get rid of this woeful government.
At present it looks like an equal split Tory/Lab with 23 results in. Before it was 30 Tory:6 or 7 Lab, so good progress for Labour but not dominant.
In the D2N2 zone the incumbent Personal Crime Commissioner for Notts has been heavily defeated (my Conservative Friends were commenting "WTF?") when she stood. The Cons have kept Derbyshire PCC.
Notts:
2021:
Caroline Henry, Conservative Party, 138,658 votes.
Paddy Tipping, Labour Party, 131,302 votes.
2024:
Labour – 119,355
Conservative – 77,148
Liberal Democrats – 32,410
I haven't calculated it, but that's a significant swing.
Possibly mixed in with the pentagon seeking money and/or obscuring real tech advances
It's a damnfool promise- for a start, because it's not obvious that she can do it, or do without the money. (After all, the costs of expanding ULEZ, the cameras and the scrappage scheme, have all happened and that money isn't coming back.) But if she doesn't do it, she's broken a big promise by day two. And Zone 6 won't like that one bit.
It was an opposition promise, and it may not work if she finds herself in power.
(We've seen it a lot with Starmer, jettisoning pledges because they were nice pledges if he was on track to lose, but don't make sense as things to actually in government. We saw it with Cameron and that damnfool referendum in his manifesto when he didn't make sure there would be enough Lib Dem MPs to force him to dump it. Flip only knows what Sunak will put in his mainfesto for 2025-9.)
Lucky they have a handful of backers with very deep pockets, who are able to donate generously, without wanting anything back in return....
If you are a rebel against this modern assumption (like me) then whatever sentience is, you wouldn't begin to know how to create it.
The proper modern materialist at least can offer the suggestion of constructing a brain from scratch. Good luck.
And there are very strong signals already that the bigger models are creating their own 'world view' irrespective of how we train them. The paper a few months ago where, when they probed into the models 'black box', it had a 2D representation of an Othello board which it had never been trained on was quite intriguing for one. There do now seem to be strong signals that the larger LLM's have a sense of space, dimensions, time.
Nicolle Ndiweni (Labour) 93,260
Angelique Foster (Conservative) 65,293
Russell Armstrong (Reform UK) 32,944
David Hancock (Liberal Democrat) 22,540