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About that inevitable Labour landslide – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,118
edited May 12 in General
About that inevitable Labour landslide – politicalbetting.com

Sky News projection from Prof Michael Thrasher: Labour on course to be largest party at general election – short of overall majority https://t.co/h4LJGxaR0c

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,002
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    My romantic dinner starts shorly, so unless Rishi Sunak hires a hitman to shoot Sir Keir Starmer I won't be on PB.

    Enjoy your dinner TSE.

    I wonder how well Starmer and Khan will sleep tonight?
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    294+242+38+66=640
    Where's the other 10 seats?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,729
    Where are Thrasher/Sky’s extra seven seats coming from for the others (being all except Lab/Con/LD), given the anticipated SNP collapse?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,582
    I would love to know where the extra seats for Others are going to come from.

    You just do not make the direct gains that Labour is making from the Tories and end up with a hung Parliament.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,680
    Note the response by Keir Starmer

    You know, I've always had a sneaking respect for being the largest party at general election – short of overall majority

    https://twitter.com/ImMakingItUpPBComeOnSeriously/status/07700900461
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,640
    Sorry, the Lib Dems won't get 17% at the general election.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,519
    SouthamObserver said:

    I would love to know where the extra seats for Others are going to come from.

    You just do not make the direct gains that Labour is making from the Tories and end up with a hung Parliament.

    Reform?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,729
    SouthamObserver said:

    I would love to know where the extra seats for Others are going to come from.

    You just do not make the direct gains that Labour is making from the Tories and end up with a hung Parliament.

    They must just be taking a bucket figure from combined all others, including the Indy’s who have polled well locally, and reform, and counting it as one single party? Which is dumb.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,532
    Who are the "Other" 66 MPs?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,729
    Meanwhile the LD seat total is now fast closing on the Tory one again
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,532
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    My romantic dinner starts shorly, so unless Rishi Sunak hires a hitman to shoot Sir Keir Starmer I won't be on PB.

    Hitman? You're having dinner with Tim Olyphant and Olga Kurylenko??
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,729
    edited May 3
    EPG said:

    Sorry, the Lib Dems won't get 17% at the general election.

    It’s a projection IF people voted the same way.

    And to get those seats, they only need to poll AS IF they have 17% nationally on those few places. The rest don’t matter
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,529
    Uniform swing.....aint happening. Getting with Tories still good trading bets from here.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,284
    edited May 3
    EPG said:

    Sorry, the Lib Dems won't get 17% at the general election.

    No, but it's an indication of how a third party might perform under PR.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile the LD seat total is now fast closing on the Tory one again

    Dorset now coming in, their best bet to go past I think
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,284
    Labour take ydoethur* country.
    "Labour wins Cannock Chase"

    *autocorrect tried to make that "torture".
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,680
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    My romantic dinner starts shorly, so unless Rishi Sunak hires a hitman to shoot Sir Keir Starmer I won't be on PB.

    Hitman? You're having dinner with Tim Olyphant and Olga Kurylenko??
    That film is one of my guilty pleasures, Far better than the next Hitman film.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,135
    Well I did always say talk about landslide Labour majorities was fanciful and they would win with a majority of around 1-20 but I must say, I have wavered on that recently with these crazy by election swings.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,888
    EPG said:

    Sorry, the Lib Dems won't get 17% at the general election.

    Why not?

    Apart from that, all they need is something like 45% of the votes in the right seats, and they end up with 100 MPs or so.....

    That seems to be their current strategy.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,944
    DavidL said:

    FPT re the Thrasher model

    I very, very much doubt that. It seems to me that the Labour gains from the Tories are being heavily understated because they are losing quite a lot of council seats to their left, specifically in Muslim areas. Their net gains are therefore less than they might be. Some, such as Sky, are suggesting that the Tories are losing a lot to "others" but I think this is wrong. It is Labour who are losing to others and then gaining big time from the Tories.

    The bad news for the Tories is that this means that Labour gains in areas where there are competitive seats are much greater than it appears and there is a real risk that there is a significant increase in the efficiency of the Labour vote with them doing much less well in ultra safe seats but still winning.

    If the war is over before the GE then many of the Hamas-curious should return to Labour.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,582
    Stephen Bush basically calling the London mayor race for Hall:

    https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1786434620856136097

    I think he's right.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,135
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    My romantic dinner starts shorly, so unless Rishi Sunak hires a hitman to shoot Sir Keir Starmer I won't be on PB.

    Enjoy! ❤

    It's The Phantom Menace (alone) for me tonight! :D
  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 535
    To me Sadiq Khan at 1 2 seems like very good value. I have 4k on so far and will do more I think. I don't live in London any more but I find it hard to believe we could win this.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,918
    DavidL said:

    FPT re the Thrasher model

    I very, very much doubt that. It seems to me that the Labour gains from the Tories are being heavily understated because they are losing quite a lot of council seats to their left, specifically in Muslim areas. Their net gains are therefore less than they might be. Some, such as Sky, are suggesting that the Tories are losing a lot to "others" but I think this is wrong. It is Labour who are losing to others and then gaining big time from the Tories.

    The bad news for the Tories is that this means that Labour gains in areas where there are competitive seats are much greater than it appears and there is a real risk that there is a significant increase in the efficiency of the Labour vote with them doing much less well in ultra safe seats but still winning.

    Yes the Labour vote is shaped to kill at the GE.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459
    DavidL said:

    FPT re the Thrasher model

    I very, very much doubt that. It seems to me that the Labour gains from the Tories are being heavily understated because they are losing quite a lot of council seats to their left, specifically in Muslim areas. Their net gains are therefore less than they might be. Some, such as Sky, are suggesting that the Tories are losing a lot to "others" but I think this is wrong. It is Labour who are losing to others and then gaining big time from the Tories.

    The bad news for the Tories is that this means that Labour gains in areas where there are competitive seats are much greater than it appears and there is a real risk that there is a significant increase in the efficiency of the Labour vote with them doing much less well in ultra safe seats but still winning.

    Expect that PB's own LunarBunny will be by shortly, asking IF you're smoking some extra-proof banana-peel?

    BUT at least YOU didn't make rude noises re: Hyndburn and it's "bi-third" local council election gender-bending!
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    Liberal Democrats total wins getting closer to Conservatives thanks to Cheltenham, at the moment that's Lib Dems 32, Conservatives 0.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,729
    edited May 3
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    My romantic dinner starts shorly, so unless Rishi Sunak hires a hitman to shoot Sir Keir Starmer I won't be on PB.

    Enjoy your meal!

    Let me guess - your other half goes out for her romantic dinner on Tuesdays? Truly the key to a lasting relationship.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    edited May 3
    SouthamObserver said:

    Stephen Bush basically calling the London mayor race for Hall:

    https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1786434620856136097

    I think he's right.

    Not really calling it. His tweet:


    Turnout figures from the London mayoralty: I think Susan Hall really could do it, you know: londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/elect…


    He’s wobbly is all. I’m still pretty certain Khan will win. However it is fun to speculate
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,407
    SandyRentool said:

    DavidL said:

    FPT re the Thrasher model

    I very, very much doubt that. It seems to me that the Labour gains from the Tories are being heavily understated because they are losing quite a lot of council seats to their left, specifically in Muslim areas. Their net gains are therefore less than they might be. Some, such as Sky, are suggesting that the Tories are losing a lot to "others" but I think this is wrong. It is Labour who are losing to others and then gaining big time from the Tories.

    The bad news for the Tories is that this means that Labour gains in areas where there are competitive seats are much greater than it appears and there is a real risk that there is a significant increase in the efficiency of the Labour vote with them doing much less well in ultra safe seats but still winning.

    If the war is over before the GE then many of the Hamas-curious should return to Labour.
    lol, Hamas-curious. Do they turn up to Israeli festivals with water pistols and get to see if they like it and can take the next step? Or do they make one of their gay friends stand blindfolded on the edge of a building and push him off without him realising he’s just a floor above a big crash-mat to get the feels.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,729
    DM_Andy said:

    Liberal Democrats total wins getting closer to Conservatives thanks to Cheltenham, at the moment that's Lib Dems 32, Conservatives 0.

    The LD gains of +56 (and Greens +41) starts to look respectable against Labour’s +141, too, when you consider Labour’s dominance of national VI
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,673
    SouthamObserver said:

    Stephen Bush basically calling the London mayor race for Hall:

    https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1786434620856136097

    I think he's right.

    If she manages that the Tories are going to forget the thrashing they just had, and indulge in several weeks of cheery complacency. They'll also decide that the way to win the election is to major on all those winning Susan Hall policies. Maybe Sunak will even be tempted to capitalise on his stunning mayoral success (not just London, Teesside too remember) and call a summer General Election.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,729
    edited May 3
    wooliedyed said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile the LD seat total is now fast closing on the Tory one again

    Dorset now coming in, their best bet to go past I think
    Another CROSSOVER KLAXON! LDs lead by 362 to 354
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,582
    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    FPT re the Thrasher model

    I very, very much doubt that. It seems to me that the Labour gains from the Tories are being heavily understated because they are losing quite a lot of council seats to their left, specifically in Muslim areas. Their net gains are therefore less than they might be. Some, such as Sky, are suggesting that the Tories are losing a lot to "others" but I think this is wrong. It is Labour who are losing to others and then gaining big time from the Tories.

    The bad news for the Tories is that this means that Labour gains in areas where there are competitive seats are much greater than it appears and there is a real risk that there is a significant increase in the efficiency of the Labour vote with them doing much less well in ultra safe seats but still winning.

    Yes the Labour vote is shaped to kill at the GE.

    The Labour + LD + Green vote share will end up pretty much as it is in the polls. It is delivering the Tories what looks to be one of their worst ever local election results. What we are seeing very clearly is large-scale anti-Tory voting and some anti-Labour voting in very safe Labour Parliamentary constituencies. If the Tories want to misinterpret this, I am all for it. We may get a general election sooner than I was thinking we might.

  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,640
    Leon said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Stephen Bush basically calling the London mayor race for Hall:

    https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1786434620856136097

    I think he's right.

    Not really calling it. His tweet:


    Turnout figures from the London mayoralty: I think Susan Hall really could do it, you know: londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/elect…


    He’s havering. I’m still pretty certain Khan will win. However it is fun to speculate
    He's not Havering, he's a hack(ney) (apologies)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,582
    TimS said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Stephen Bush basically calling the London mayor race for Hall:

    https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1786434620856136097

    I think he's right.

    If she manages that the Tories are going to forget the thrashing they just had, and indulge in several weeks of cheery complacency. They'll also decide that the way to win the election is to major on all those winning Susan Hall policies. Maybe Sunak will even be tempted to capitalise on his stunning mayoral success (not just London, Teesside too remember) and call a summer General Election.

    Yes, it does look like the Tories are about to draw all the wrong conclusions from these results.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,729
    EPG said:

    Leon said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Stephen Bush basically calling the London mayor race for Hall:

    https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1786434620856136097

    I think he's right.

    Not really calling it. His tweet:


    Turnout figures from the London mayoralty: I think Susan Hall really could do it, you know: londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/elect…


    He’s havering. I’m still pretty certain Khan will win. However it is fun to speculate
    He's not Havering, he's a hack(ney) (apologies)
    He’s Barking, more like
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    Tunbridge Wells is angry at the government

    16/39 declared
    Liberal Democrats 12 (+5)
    Conservative 2 (-1)
    Independent 1 (-3)
    Labour 1 (-1)
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,114
    DM_Andy said:

    294+242+38+66=640
    Where's the other 10 seats?

    Six counties abstentionists ?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,157
    A lot depends on the Reform vote in London .

    Another complication , many of these constituencies stretch from inner London to the outer suburbs . It would help if we got turnout for the boroughs .
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Who are the "Other" 66 MPs?

    SNP
    George Galloway
    Green in Brighton Pavilion

    But I'm stumped for the next 60.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,407
    SouthamObserver said:

    TimS said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Stephen Bush basically calling the London mayor race for Hall:

    https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1786434620856136097

    I think he's right.

    If she manages that the Tories are going to forget the thrashing they just had, and indulge in several weeks of cheery complacency. They'll also decide that the way to win the election is to major on all those winning Susan Hall policies. Maybe Sunak will even be tempted to capitalise on his stunning mayoral success (not just London, Teesside too remember) and call a summer General Election.

    Yes, it does look like the Tories are about to draw all the wrong conclusions from these results.

    Or all the right conclusions just not necessarily in the right order.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,204
    gettingbetter said:

    To me Sadiq Khan at 1 2 seems like very good value. I have 4k on so far and will do more I think. I don't live in London any more but I find it hard to believe we could win this.

    I thought it was value at 1.12... not sure I'd want to drop 4k on it though!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,729
    LibDem surge! The gains are flooding in
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,532
    SandyRentool said:

    DavidL said:

    FPT re the Thrasher model

    I very, very much doubt that. It seems to me that the Labour gains from the Tories are being heavily understated because they are losing quite a lot of council seats to their left, specifically in Muslim areas. Their net gains are therefore less than they might be. Some, such as Sky, are suggesting that the Tories are losing a lot to "others" but I think this is wrong. It is Labour who are losing to others and then gaining big time from the Tories.

    The bad news for the Tories is that this means that Labour gains in areas where there are competitive seats are much greater than it appears and there is a real risk that there is a significant increase in the efficiency of the Labour vote with them doing much less well in ultra safe seats but still winning.

    If the war is over before the GE then many of the Hamas-curious should return to Labour.
    Are you Netanyahu-curious?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,527
    Did we get to this bit in the Thresher analysis-

    This figure assumes also that votes for the nationalist parties in Scotland and Wales, places where no local elections took place, are unchanged from the previous election.

    That’s a rather large assumption.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,729
    edited May 3
    El_Capitano said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Who are the "Other" 66 MPs?

    SNP
    George Galloway
    Green in Brighton Pavilion

    But I'm stumped for the next 60.
    Some grunt has dropped all the disparate ‘other’ votes in the locals into the model as a single party ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,532
    boulay said:

    SandyRentool said:

    DavidL said:

    FPT re the Thrasher model

    I very, very much doubt that. It seems to me that the Labour gains from the Tories are being heavily understated because they are losing quite a lot of council seats to their left, specifically in Muslim areas. Their net gains are therefore less than they might be. Some, such as Sky, are suggesting that the Tories are losing a lot to "others" but I think this is wrong. It is Labour who are losing to others and then gaining big time from the Tories.

    The bad news for the Tories is that this means that Labour gains in areas where there are competitive seats are much greater than it appears and there is a real risk that there is a significant increase in the efficiency of the Labour vote with them doing much less well in ultra safe seats but still winning.

    If the war is over before the GE then many of the Hamas-curious should return to Labour.
    lol, Hamas-curious. Do they turn up to Israeli festivals with water pistols and get to see if they like it and can take the next step? Or do they make one of their gay friends stand blindfolded on the edge of a building and push him off without him realising he’s just a floor above a big crash-mat to get the feels.

    Sandy's IDF-curious.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,729
    DougSeal said:

    Did we get to this bit in the Thresher analysis-

    This figure assumes also that votes for the nationalist parties in Scotland and Wales, places where no local elections took place, are unchanged from the previous election.

    That’s a rather large assumption.

    So that explains the large ‘other’ base - still not obvious where the gains are, though?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,710
    boulay said:

    SandyRentool said:

    DavidL said:

    FPT re the Thrasher model

    I very, very much doubt that. It seems to me that the Labour gains from the Tories are being heavily understated because they are losing quite a lot of council seats to their left, specifically in Muslim areas. Their net gains are therefore less than they might be. Some, such as Sky, are suggesting that the Tories are losing a lot to "others" but I think this is wrong. It is Labour who are losing to others and then gaining big time from the Tories.

    The bad news for the Tories is that this means that Labour gains in areas where there are competitive seats are much greater than it appears and there is a real risk that there is a significant increase in the efficiency of the Labour vote with them doing much less well in ultra safe seats but still winning.

    If the war is over before the GE then many of the Hamas-curious should return to Labour.
    lol, Hamas-curious. Do they turn up to Israeli festivals with water pistols and get to see if they like it and can take the next step? Or do they make one of their gay friends stand blindfolded on the edge of a building and push him off without him realising he’s just a floor above a big crash-mat to get the feels.

    VR is your friend here. The Plank is a fantastic experience, if that's the right word.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,532
    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    My romantic dinner starts shorly, so unless Rishi Sunak hires a hitman to shoot Sir Keir Starmer I won't be on PB.

    Enjoy! ❤

    It's The Phantom Menace (alone) for me tonight! :D
    "Be mindful of the Living Force, my young Padawan!"
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,910
    Sadiq Khan is now at precisely the same price I tipped he should be at 4.51am this morning.

    I hope you all took advantage.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,113
    TimS said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Stephen Bush basically calling the London mayor race for Hall:

    https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1786434620856136097

    I think he's right.

    If she manages that the Tories are going to forget the thrashing they just had, and indulge in several weeks of cheery complacency. They'll also decide that the way to win the election is to major on all those winning Susan Hall policies. Maybe Sunak will even be tempted to capitalise on his stunning mayoral success (not just London, Teesside too remember) and call a summer General Election.
    Possibly if Hall narrowly wins (I'm not predicting anything), Labour might blame voter ID rules, and there'll be a push from some in the next Labour government to try and 'balance' things up by putting their thumb on the scales in the other direction.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,729
    edited May 3
    Casino_Royale said:

    Sadiq Khan is now at precisely the same price I tipped he should be at 4.51am this morning.

    I hope you all took advantage.

    Question is, are you going to lay off and take your Hall profit while you can?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,729
    kamski said:

    TimS said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Stephen Bush basically calling the London mayor race for Hall:

    https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1786434620856136097

    I think he's right.

    If she manages that the Tories are going to forget the thrashing they just had, and indulge in several weeks of cheery complacency. They'll also decide that the way to win the election is to major on all those winning Susan Hall policies. Maybe Sunak will even be tempted to capitalise on his stunning mayoral success (not just London, Teesside too remember) and call a summer General Election.
    Possibly if Hall narrowly wins (I'm not predicting anything), Labour might blame voter ID rules, and there'll be a push from some in the next Labour government to try and 'balance' things up by putting their thumb on the scales in the other direction.
    Votes at 16 incoming….
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,656
    Any surprises announced yet? The only news I've picked up all day is Baron Smug of Houchen winning.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,407
    …
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    boulay said:

    SandyRentool said:

    DavidL said:

    FPT re the Thrasher model

    I very, very much doubt that. It seems to me that the Labour gains from the Tories are being heavily understated because they are losing quite a lot of council seats to their left, specifically in Muslim areas. Their net gains are therefore less than they might be. Some, such as Sky, are suggesting that the Tories are losing a lot to "others" but I think this is wrong. It is Labour who are losing to others and then gaining big time from the Tories.

    The bad news for the Tories is that this means that Labour gains in areas where there are competitive seats are much greater than it appears and there is a real risk that there is a significant increase in the efficiency of the Labour vote with them doing much less well in ultra safe seats but still winning.

    If the war is over before the GE then many of the Hamas-curious should return to Labour.
    lol, Hamas-curious. Do they turn up to Israeli festivals with water pistols and get to see if they like it and can take the next step? Or do they make one of their gay friends stand blindfolded on the edge of a building and push him off without him realising he’s just a floor above a big crash-mat to get the feels.

    Sandy's IDF-curious.
    When I was 10 my father and a couple of his friends went to Israel for a jolly and they bought us (their sons who were all friends as well) mini IDF uniforms. They were absolutely perfect IdF uniforms for kids with the badges, sew on patches etc. it’s like getting a football strip as a kid and following that team for the rest of your life.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,910
    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Sadiq Khan is now at precisely the same price I tipped he should be at 4.51am this morning.

    I hope you all took advantage.

    Question is, are you going to lay off and take your Hall profit while you can?
    Not yet. I may do that. But I still don't think the market reflects how close this is probably going to be.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,157
    IanB2 said:

    wooliedyed said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile the LD seat total is now fast closing on the Tory one again

    Dorset now coming in, their best bet to go past I think
    Another CROSSOVER KLAXON! LDs lead by 362 to 354
    I’m happy at least one of my predictions looks like landing ! The Blue Wall Tory meltdown.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,729
    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Liberal Democrats total wins getting closer to Conservatives thanks to Cheltenham, at the moment that's Lib Dems 32, Conservatives 0.

    The LD gains of +56 (and Greens +41) starts to look respectable against Labour’s +141, too, when you consider Labour’s dominance of national VI
    Now LDs +64 with Labour stuck on +141
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,026
    The LDs always poll higher in local than general elections and some of that will go to Labour so I expect a Labour majority in the end.

    However some of those LDs will still have reservations about the Labour left even if comfortable with Starmer, so if Sunak and the Tories can play on that it could yet be close
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,656
    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    My romantic dinner starts shorly, so unless Rishi Sunak hires a hitman to shoot Sir Keir Starmer I won't be on PB.

    Enjoy! ❤

    It's The Phantom Menace (alone) for me tonight! :D
    It's not a great movie. But it is more entertaining than people remember.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,729
    Casino_Royale said:

    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Sadiq Khan is now at precisely the same price I tipped he should be at 4.51am this morning.

    I hope you all took advantage.

    Question is, are you going to lay off and take your Hall profit while you can?
    Not yet. I may do that. But I still don't think the market reflects how close this is probably going to be.
    In your position I’d lay off at least half
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,656
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Three reasons why it would benefit Starmer for Hall to defeat Khan

    1. Puts the fear of God into non-arse voters. You actually do have to vote, and you can't faff about with peripheral nit-picking or you get the Tories
    2. Hall is frootloop and will show the very worst of the Tories who will ramp her lunacy along with the "we must head off Farage" narrative
    3. Khan is a player. Take him out and he's no longer a player

    Lacking any personal stake in the London election I hope always for the most entertaining option. That would cretainly be it.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,771
    El_Capitano said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Who are the "Other" 66 MPs?

    SNP
    George Galloway
    Green in Brighton Pavilion

    But I'm stumped for the next 60.
    In reality? All Labour...
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,604
    edited May 3
    Interesting contrast:

    LD has won more councillors than Con today.

    But PCCs - 33 contests in England - generally each is basically a county. 21 declared so far:

    Con 12
    Lab 9
    LD 0
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,888
    IanB2 said:

    LibDem surge! The gains are flooding in

    Yup. The Dorsets, Tunbridge Wells's and Wokinghams. Great, isn't it?!!!!!!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,532
    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    My romantic dinner starts shorly, so unless Rishi Sunak hires a hitman to shoot Sir Keir Starmer I won't be on PB.

    Enjoy! ❤

    It's The Phantom Menace (alone) for me tonight! :D
    It's not a great movie. But it is more entertaining than people remember.
    Far superior to so-called "sequel" trilogy 2015-19!
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,113
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Three reasons why it would benefit Starmer for Hall to defeat Khan

    1. Puts the fear of God into non-arse voters. You actually do have to vote, and you can't faff about with peripheral nit-picking or you get the Tories
    2. Hall is frootloop and will show the very worst of the Tories who will ramp her lunacy along with the "we must head off Farage" narrative
    3. Khan is a player. Take him out and he's no longer a player

    4. The inevitable fulsome and obnoxious congratulations she'll get from Trump
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,729
    MikeL said:

    Interesting contrast:

    LD has won more councillors than Con today.

    But PCCs - 33 contests in England - generally each is basically a county. 21 declared so far:

    Con 12
    Lab 9
    LD 0

    FPTP gets more unfair, the larger the seats
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,910
    Khan out to 1.35
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,483
    Casino_Royale said:

    Sadiq Khan is now at precisely the same price I tipped he should be at 4.51am this morning.

    I hope you all took advantage.

    Indeed


  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,762
    boulay said:

    …

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    boulay said:

    SandyRentool said:

    DavidL said:

    FPT re the Thrasher model

    I very, very much doubt that. It seems to me that the Labour gains from the Tories are being heavily understated because they are losing quite a lot of council seats to their left, specifically in Muslim areas. Their net gains are therefore less than they might be. Some, such as Sky, are suggesting that the Tories are losing a lot to "others" but I think this is wrong. It is Labour who are losing to others and then gaining big time from the Tories.

    The bad news for the Tories is that this means that Labour gains in areas where there are competitive seats are much greater than it appears and there is a real risk that there is a significant increase in the efficiency of the Labour vote with them doing much less well in ultra safe seats but still winning.

    If the war is over before the GE then many of the Hamas-curious should return to Labour.
    lol, Hamas-curious. Do they turn up to Israeli festivals with water pistols and get to see if they like it and can take the next step? Or do they make one of their gay friends stand blindfolded on the edge of a building and push him off without him realising he’s just a floor above a big crash-mat to get the feels.

    Sandy's IDF-curious.
    When I was 10 my father and a couple of his friends went to Israel for a jolly and they bought us (their sons who were all friends as well) mini IDF uniforms. They were absolutely perfect IdF uniforms for kids with the badges, sew on patches etc. it’s like getting a football strip as a kid and following that team for the rest of your life.
    No one likes us, no one likes us
    No one likes us, we don’t care!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,680
    edited May 3
    I just checked. I can't get to a betting shop AND catch my train. My TEN WHOLE POUNDS on Susan Hall to win will therefore go unspent (I don't bet online). I am sad. :( I haven't made a political bet for yonks and I'm devolving into a Normie. This is not good.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,415
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Three reasons why it would benefit Starmer for Hall to defeat Khan

    1. Puts the fear of God into non-arse voters. You actually do have to vote, and you can't faff about with peripheral nit-picking or you get the Tories
    2. Hall is frootloop and will show the very worst of the Tories who will ramp her lunacy along with the "we must head off Farage" narrative
    3. Khan is a player. Take him out and he's no longer a player

    4. A Labour govt would no longer feel the need to open the purse strings for transport / infra capital spend in London.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,114
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Three reasons why it would benefit Starmer for Hall to defeat Khan

    1. Puts the fear of God into non-arse voters. You actually do have to vote, and you can't faff about with peripheral nit-picking or you get the Tories
    2. Hall is frootloop and will show the very worst of the Tories who will ramp her lunacy along with the "we must head off Farage" narrative
    3. Khan is a player. Take him out and he's no longer a player

    Excellent critique. Can’t fault it.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,762
    kamski said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Three reasons why it would benefit Starmer for Hall to defeat Khan

    1. Puts the fear of God into non-arse voters. You actually do have to vote, and you can't faff about with peripheral nit-picking or you get the Tories
    2. Hall is frootloop and will show the very worst of the Tories who will ramp her lunacy along with the "we must head off Farage" narrative
    3. Khan is a player. Take him out and he's no longer a player

    4. The inevitable fulsome and obnoxious congratulations she'll get from Trump
    Sir Keir is ready for anything.


  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Casino_Royale said:

    Khan out to 1.35

    Just piled in at 1.34. Real value in my opinion.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,113
    IanB2 said:

    kamski said:

    TimS said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Stephen Bush basically calling the London mayor race for Hall:

    https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1786434620856136097

    I think he's right.

    If she manages that the Tories are going to forget the thrashing they just had, and indulge in several weeks of cheery complacency. They'll also decide that the way to win the election is to major on all those winning Susan Hall policies. Maybe Sunak will even be tempted to capitalise on his stunning mayoral success (not just London, Teesside too remember) and call a summer General Election.
    Possibly if Hall narrowly wins (I'm not predicting anything), Labour might blame voter ID rules, and there'll be a push from some in the next Labour government to try and 'balance' things up by putting their thumb on the scales in the other direction.
    Votes at 16 incoming….
    Boundaries decided by population rather than electoral register...

    I'm not against votes at 16, but I think this kind of change to voting should be done by consensus as far as possible, rather than whoever is in power making whatever changes they think will give them an advantage.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,680
    boulay said:

    …

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    boulay said:

    SandyRentool said:

    DavidL said:

    FPT re the Thrasher model

    I very, very much doubt that. It seems to me that the Labour gains from the Tories are being heavily understated because they are losing quite a lot of council seats to their left, specifically in Muslim areas. Their net gains are therefore less than they might be. Some, such as Sky, are suggesting that the Tories are losing a lot to "others" but I think this is wrong. It is Labour who are losing to others and then gaining big time from the Tories.

    The bad news for the Tories is that this means that Labour gains in areas where there are competitive seats are much greater than it appears and there is a real risk that there is a significant increase in the efficiency of the Labour vote with them doing much less well in ultra safe seats but still winning.

    If the war is over before the GE then many of the Hamas-curious should return to Labour.
    lol, Hamas-curious. Do they turn up to Israeli festivals with water pistols and get to see if they like it and can take the next step? Or do they make one of their gay friends stand blindfolded on the edge of a building and push him off without him realising he’s just a floor above a big crash-mat to get the feels.

    Sandy's IDF-curious.
    When I was 10 my father and a couple of his friends went to Israel for a jolly and they bought us (their sons who were all friends as well) mini IDF uniforms. They were absolutely perfect IdF uniforms for kids with the badges, sew on patches etc. it’s like getting a football strip as a kid and following that team for the rest of your life.
    We can only be glad that they did not buy you the Waffen-SS Action Man then... :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,656
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    My romantic dinner starts shorly, so unless Rishi Sunak hires a hitman to shoot Sir Keir Starmer I won't be on PB.

    Enjoy! ❤

    It's The Phantom Menace (alone) for me tonight! :D
    It's not a great movie. But it is more entertaining than people remember.
    Far superior to so-called "sequel" trilogy 2015-19!
    The sequels suffered from a lack of consistent vision. The prequels had different problems.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,604
    Khan traded as low as 1.02.

    And the vast majority of money on Khan was traded at between 1.03 and 1.06.

    If Khan loses, nobody should ever say again that anything is certain in politics.

    Literally nobody seriously thought Khan could lose before the last 24 hours.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,527
    edited May 3
    Theuniondivvie said:

    kamski said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Three reasons why it would benefit Starmer for Hall to defeat Khan

    1. Puts the fear of God into non-arse voters. You actually do have to vote, and you can't faff about with peripheral nit-picking or you get the Tories
    2. Hall is frootloop and will show the very worst of the Tories who will ramp her lunacy along with the "we must head off Farage" narrative
    3. Khan is a player. Take him out and he's no longer a player

    4. The inevitable fulsome and obnoxious congratulations she'll get from Trump
    Sir Keir is ready for anything.


    David Lammy is meeting Republicans and Democrats in the US. Isn’t that what politicians do? Is there anything else? This is hardly the crime of the century- like looking at someone’s LinkedIn profile for example.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,483
    kle4 said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    My romantic dinner starts shorly, so unless Rishi Sunak hires a hitman to shoot Sir Keir Starmer I won't be on PB.

    Enjoy! ❤

    It's The Phantom Menace (alone) for me tonight! :D
    It's not a great movie. But it is more entertaining than people remember.
    Far superior to so-called "sequel" trilogy 2015-19!
    The sequels suffered from a lack of consistent vision. The prequels had different problems.
    They could have been awesome

    image
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,680
    Malmesbury said:

    kle4 said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    My romantic dinner starts shorly, so unless Rishi Sunak hires a hitman to shoot Sir Keir Starmer I won't be on PB.

    Enjoy! ❤

    It's The Phantom Menace (alone) for me tonight! :D
    It's not a great movie. But it is more entertaining than people remember.
    Far superior to so-called "sequel" trilogy 2015-19!
    The sequels suffered from a lack of consistent vision. The prequels had different problems.
    They could have been awesome

    image
    Meesa finding that...oddly convincing :)
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 467
    This analysis is nonsense. He is assuming all sorts of stuff (both about Scottish and welsh results) and bracketing other things to grab headlines and it just doesn't square with the super abundance of data that says otherwise. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary prof and I am just not seeing it. Seriously, look at the numbers today. As a researcher who has been in the news often, I find this kind of stuff off putting. It is what pisses people off about experts.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,656
    kamski said:

    IanB2 said:

    kamski said:

    TimS said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Stephen Bush basically calling the London mayor race for Hall:

    https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1786434620856136097

    I think he's right.

    If she manages that the Tories are going to forget the thrashing they just had, and indulge in several weeks of cheery complacency. They'll also decide that the way to win the election is to major on all those winning Susan Hall policies. Maybe Sunak will even be tempted to capitalise on his stunning mayoral success (not just London, Teesside too remember) and call a summer General Election.
    Possibly if Hall narrowly wins (I'm not predicting anything), Labour might blame voter ID rules, and there'll be a push from some in the next Labour government to try and 'balance' things up by putting their thumb on the scales in the other direction.
    Votes at 16 incoming….
    Boundaries decided by population rather than electoral register...

    I'm not against votes at 16, but I think this kind of change to voting should be done by consensus as far as possible, rather than whoever is in power making whatever changes they think will give them an advantage.
    Yet most electoral changes have happened because those in power thought it would give them an advantage.

    Those that last presumably are the ones that coincidentally happen to be well received.

    On votes at 16 I'm not in favour, but I think it is going to happen so I'm already mentally prepared for it.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    kamski said:

    IanB2 said:

    kamski said:

    TimS said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Stephen Bush basically calling the London mayor race for Hall:

    https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1786434620856136097

    I think he's right.

    If she manages that the Tories are going to forget the thrashing they just had, and indulge in several weeks of cheery complacency. They'll also decide that the way to win the election is to major on all those winning Susan Hall policies. Maybe Sunak will even be tempted to capitalise on his stunning mayoral success (not just London, Teesside too remember) and call a summer General Election.
    Possibly if Hall narrowly wins (I'm not predicting anything), Labour might blame voter ID rules, and there'll be a push from some in the next Labour government to try and 'balance' things up by putting their thumb on the scales in the other direction.
    Votes at 16 incoming….
    Boundaries decided by population rather than electoral register...

    I'm not against votes at 16, but I think this kind of change to voting should be done by consensus as far as possible, rather than whoever is in power making whatever changes they think will give them an advantage.
    If one side can do it then another side can do it. Time for a Greek style rule that whatever the election rules change, it doesn't take effect until after the next general election so there's a chance for the opposition to win under the old rules and repeal the change.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,910
    MikeL said:

    Khan traded as low as 1.02.

    And the vast majority of money on Khan was traded at between 1.03 and 1.06.

    If Khan loses, nobody should ever say again that anything is certain in politics.

    Literally nobody seriously thought Khan could lose before the last 24 hours.

    Nobody should, but they will. And they will laugh, sneer and attack those who take a different view.

    Especially the more simple-minded who don't understand the concept of value losers.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,178
    The sub-£20 I'd make from cashing out on Susan Hall isn't worth it really, so I'm just going to stick with it for the entertainment. Wonder if Anabob has cashed out - he stands to win £370 I think. Come on Susan!

  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,888
    edited May 3
    IanB2 said:

    MikeL said:

    Interesting contrast:

    LD has won more councillors than Con today.

    But PCCs - 33 contests in England - generally each is basically a county. 21 declared so far:

    Con 12
    Lab 9
    LD 0

    FPTP gets more unfair, the larger the seats
    Were the Lib Dems really motivated to fight hard in the PCC elections? I suspect not.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,033
    edited May 3
    I told you all to back Hall at 35/1 yesterday. Now 3/1.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,656
    DougSeal said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    kamski said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Three reasons why it would benefit Starmer for Hall to defeat Khan

    1. Puts the fear of God into non-arse voters. You actually do have to vote, and you can't faff about with peripheral nit-picking or you get the Tories
    2. Hall is frootloop and will show the very worst of the Tories who will ramp her lunacy along with the "we must head off Farage" narrative
    3. Khan is a player. Take him out and he's no longer a player

    4. The inevitable fulsome and obnoxious congratulations she'll get from Trump
    Sir Keir is ready for anything.


    David Lammy is meeting Republicans and Democrats in the US. Isn’t that what politicians do? Is there anything else. This is hardly the crime of the century- like looking at someone’s LinkedIn profile for example.
    All true, but such criticisms happen all the time. Even being diplomatic towards Trump in office was presented as beyond the pale sometimes.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,178
    viewcode said:

    Malmesbury said:

    kle4 said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    My romantic dinner starts shorly, so unless Rishi Sunak hires a hitman to shoot Sir Keir Starmer I won't be on PB.

    Enjoy! ❤

    It's The Phantom Menace (alone) for me tonight! :D
    It's not a great movie. But it is more entertaining than people remember.
    Far superior to so-called "sequel" trilogy 2015-19!
    The sequels suffered from a lack of consistent vision. The prequels had different problems.
    They could have been awesome

    image
    Meesa finding that...oddly convincing :)
    I can't really see the difference.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,157
    edited May 3
    MikeL said:

    Khan traded as low as 1.02.

    And the vast majority of money on Khan was traded at between 1.03 and 1.06.

    If Khan loses, nobody should ever say again that anything is certain in politics.

    Literally nobody seriously thought Khan could lose before the last 24 hours.

    It would be a perfect storm . Low turnout in inner London , change of voting system . The Lib Dems and Greens by not splitting their votes and can’t be bothered Labour voters will learn a harsh lesson . They were possibly handmaidens to a Trump climate change denier.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,762
    viewcode said:

    boulay said:

    …

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    boulay said:

    SandyRentool said:

    DavidL said:

    FPT re the Thrasher model

    I very, very much doubt that. It seems to me that the Labour gains from the Tories are being heavily understated because they are losing quite a lot of council seats to their left, specifically in Muslim areas. Their net gains are therefore less than they might be. Some, such as Sky, are suggesting that the Tories are losing a lot to "others" but I think this is wrong. It is Labour who are losing to others and then gaining big time from the Tories.

    The bad news for the Tories is that this means that Labour gains in areas where there are competitive seats are much greater than it appears and there is a real risk that there is a significant increase in the efficiency of the Labour vote with them doing much less well in ultra safe seats but still winning.

    If the war is over before the GE then many of the Hamas-curious should return to Labour.
    lol, Hamas-curious. Do they turn up to Israeli festivals with water pistols and get to see if they like it and can take the next step? Or do they make one of their gay friends stand blindfolded on the edge of a building and push him off without him realising he’s just a floor above a big crash-mat to get the feels.

    Sandy's IDF-curious.
    When I was 10 my father and a couple of his friends went to Israel for a jolly and they bought us (their sons who were all friends as well) mini IDF uniforms. They were absolutely perfect IdF uniforms for kids with the badges, sew on patches etc. it’s like getting a football strip as a kid and following that team for the rest of your life.
    We can only be glad that they did not buy you the Waffen-SS Action Man then... :)
    I think even in the days of gollywogs and Love Thy Neighbour an SS action man would have been a step too far, just honest Landsers who would never be involved in atrocities, oh no, definitely not.
This discussion has been closed.