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Shall he dwindle, peak, and pine? – politicalbetting.com
Shall he dwindle, peak, and pine? – politicalbetting.com
Ash Regan, who holds decisive vote, has written to Yousaf with a series of demands around independence and women’s rightsAlex Salmond tells Times Radio: “If I were Humza Yousaf, I’d get drafting a very favourable answer, otherwise he’s going to be known as ‘Humza the Brief’" https://t.co/GVL6QNTWwN
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Still it is - not yet - quite lost.
Kate Forbes must be enjoying this...not least, that she gets to be magnanimous in public...
It was as subtle as a rat without a tail...
NY Post - Ex-National Enquirer boss expected to detail scheme to bury story from Playboy Playmate: Trump trial
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJ0arpisr7Q
Would thou wert clean enough to spit upon.
The SNP seem to be going for the double here...
And I, the mistress of your charms,
The close contriver of all harms,
Was never called to bear my part
Or show the glory of our art?
And which is worse, all you have done
Hath been but for a wayward son,
Spiteful and wrathful, who, as others do,
Loves for his own ends, not for you.
@AshReganALBA
Thank you for your incredible strength and support for me and many women and girls. Some react to storm clouds; interestingly, women often make the weather."
In reply to JK Rowling.
https://twitter.com/AshReganALBA/status/1783571332640207181
Is it a reasonable working assumption that every Scottish politician hates and despises every other Scottish politician?
But - actually - Yousaf can't afford to do that. He is totally stuck and it's entirely his own fault.
Yousaf concedes every single one of Regan's demands;
Sturgeon is then charged on the day of the vote and can't attend, so he loses anyway.
Up from 19% to 21% lead to labour.
But a lot of his problems are just because he has been left holding the ticking parcel when the music stopped. A different version of this fiasco would have happened under Regan or Forbes. Maybe even under Sturgeon.
If he loses, what then?
Presumably the SNP leave him in place while electing a new leader, which would I imagine have to be one of Robertson or Forbes.
They have to get that done in 28 days and try to put forward their new leader as a candidate.
But - it is hard to imagine either will be more acceptable to the Greens than Yousaf. Robertson is also tainted by association with Sturgeon and Forbes' social views alienate much of her own party.
So is there any realistic chance of one of them getting the 65 votes needed?
They could of course try to install Keith Brown, Depute Leader, as FM and wait a few months for everything to cool down. But, leaving aside whether he'd have the votes either, that's only really delaying the issue.
This looks a nasty mess.
The UK media would have a melt-down.
Or just cover the US election. One of the two.
https://x.com/stephspyro/status/1783585417243107626?s=46
If there is an emergency Holyrood election, is the next election five years after the regular election or five years after that election?
A GE might not do Ash Regan any favours either.
It's Scotterdammerung...
Re: your post at 9.15 - there would be an election in 2026 even if there was an election in 2024.
I came up with Ajockalypse Now at the same time.
The other thing that occurred to me was that if any MSP managed to get themselves charged and felt the need to stand down even Regan would not be able to save the SNP government. Which is the reason that we have had this nonsense of a coalition throughout. Its just too tight.
“It is never difficult to distinguish between with a Scotsman with a grievance and a ray of sunshine.”
Blandings Castle
Been over three hours now.
However, re: numbers, don't ALL of the parties in & of (if not always for) Scotland have some history of defections and defectors, quasi en-mass or semi-individual (also visa-versa)?
Meaning that it's possible, if less-than-inevitable, for current govt. to win over one or more (current) opposition MSPs. In theory anyway.
Factor to consider: degree that ALL parties are ready AND willing to hold a Scottish snap election?
Reckon that SNP and Greens are NOT over-eager, risking significant seat loses even (or because of?) the (relative) proportionality of the electoral system. Whereas Scottish Labour and Conservatives might well welcome opportunity to not only gain seats at Holyrood, but to also to use such gains as arguments in their favor all across Great Britain in the upcoming Westminster GE.
Anyway you slice it, very interesting for punters and/or psephologists!
A) lose seats
B ) lose second place.
It is not in their interests for there to be an election. This may be why they're only VONC the FM not the whole government.
Wes Streeting MP
@wesstreeting
·
2h
Singapore General Hospital has a programme called Get Rid Of Stupid Stuff.
I want to hear from NHS staff about the stupid stuff that wastes your time, patients’ time, and taxpayers’ pounds.
Let me know how you think we can deliver a better NHS here:
https://twitter.com/wesstreeting/status/1783562443798553030
But bear in mind the voting system is bent like Westminster, only in the opposite direction - it has a reverse effect from FPTP in terms of seats per vote.
Could have been asking about the national education system.
My point is, might the tightness of the numbers might itself offer a way out - for a wee while anyway. But your argument probably makes more sense the closer you get to the Heart of Midlothian.
@NadineDorries
I’m putting the odds on a GE being called tomorrow or next week at 50%
That’s about 250 Con MPs being thrown to the wolves - if I’m right, of course.
https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1783546081524990241
Except far right.
More likely there won't be four nations before that happens.
(3) To what extent does anyone know what they are doing.
The motion is against the leader not the Scottish government. So the evidence thus far is that no-one wants an early election, and so that won't happen unless they all act stupidly. Which they might.
The likely result: 50/50 chance that Yousaf will survive for now. 90% chance there won't be an early election. 40% chance we shall end up with K Forbes as leader, which event would shift the dynamics of Scottish and UK politics bigly.
Isn't democracy a wonderful thing.
Maybe Sunak is thinking that he has played a blinder this week.
There once was a general (I think it was Westmoreland) who got involved with a supply depot, complaining about a thing going missing. This was held against him, because minutae like that is not for his level.
And, as I have repeatedly pointed out, the NHS will have to expand to cope with the death wave as the Boomers die. I really don't think he understands this.
In theory anyway. Perhaps maybe?
In rseality, every SNP MSP - and, indeed, every other MSP - gets to tell them. Even if it is just abstention.
I very much doubt that.
Demob happy?
As a once upon a time hospital pharmacist I was always mildly annoyed that we worked office hours.
Except on Sundays.
The interesting issues however include Mr Cole-Hamilton's support for Morningside tractors, and SKS's policymaking down in London which might not go down well with the Greens. But who's to say what he will do once he's PM?
And as we all know, it is swing voters who decide elections.
How's that for another cliché?
As Lord Peter might say, well quoted.