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Shall he dwindle, peak, and pine? – politicalbetting.com

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  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    edited April 25
    viewcode said:

    Yokes said:

    'Humza Yousaf’s strategy to abrogate the Bute House Agreement would be as successful a strategy as Emperor Palpatine decision to allow the Rebel Alliance to know the location of the second Death Star.'

    What? Is that a Star Trek reference?

    It's a Star Wars reference. Not Star Trek. Different franchise, similar name.
    That was the film about a trade dispute in the outlying systems? Don’t recall a “Death Star”, or an emperor Palpatine.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,124
    Andy_JS said:

    "Feminism has left middle-aged women like me single, childless and depressed
    We were taught to prioritise our careers over marriage – and now we are paying for it
    Petronella Wyatt"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2024/04/25/feminism-has-failed-women-career-no-family-thatcher/

    Are you sure it was feminism, rather than the affair with Boris Johnson?
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728
    nico679 said:

    Yousafs only way to survive is to accept the list of demands from Salmond by way of Ash Regan.

    We know people like to cling to power but really this surely would be too much to stomach and would allow the opposition parties to have a field day .

    He really messed up today and has no one to blame but himself .

    So the stage is set for Kate Forbes who ironically might cause more problems for the opposition , that’s if she can overcome her position on certain social issues .

    I’m wondering whether the Tories are willing to accept this as an SNP recovery would dent Labour chances more than their own.

    Forbes likely to become trickier longer term. I doubt she can completely change the SNP's positioning and case for independence quickly or cleanly enough for things to go well for them at any soon to be held elections. Labour in particular would be quite gleeful to see the tanks removed from their lawn after Salmond and Sturgeon parked them there for so long.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,366
    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Yokes said:

    'Humza Yousaf’s strategy to abrogate the Bute House Agreement would be as successful a strategy as Emperor Palpatine decision to allow the Rebel Alliance to know the location of the second Death Star.'

    What? Is that a Star Trek reference?

    Stargate, I think.
    Babylon Galactica, in fact.
    Wasn't it an episode in The Starlost?
    Surely Space 1999
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,061
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Yokes said:

    'Humza Yousaf’s strategy to abrogate the Bute House Agreement would be as successful a strategy as Emperor Palpatine decision to allow the Rebel Alliance to know the location of the second Death Star.'

    What? Is that a Star Trek reference?

    Stargate, I think.
    Babylon Galactica, in fact.
    Blake's 5.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    MJW said:

    nico679 said:

    Yousafs only way to survive is to accept the list of demands from Salmond by way of Ash Regan.

    We know people like to cling to power but really this surely would be too much to stomach and would allow the opposition parties to have a field day .

    He really messed up today and has no one to blame but himself .

    So the stage is set for Kate Forbes who ironically might cause more problems for the opposition , that’s if she can overcome her position on certain social issues .

    I’m wondering whether the Tories are willing to accept this as an SNP recovery would dent Labour chances more than their own.

    Forbes likely to become trickier longer term. I doubt she can completely change the SNP's positioning and case for independence quickly or cleanly enough for things to go well for them at any soon to be held elections. Labour in particular would be quite gleeful to see the tanks removed from their lawn after Salmond and Sturgeon parked them there for so long.
    My vague recollection of the SNP leadership contest was that Yousaf was the 'Everything is fine, make no changes' continuity candidate, Forbes was the 'This is not working' change candidate, and Regan was the rank outsider candidate, and that it ended up being closer than anticipated.

    But how able Forbes in fact is? In fairness I don't think there's really any way to accurately judge these things - people who seem like duffers can surprise, and steady hands can turn out to be disastrous.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Feminism has left middle-aged women like me single, childless and depressed
    We were taught to prioritise our careers over marriage – and now we are paying for it
    Petronella Wyatt"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2024/04/25/feminism-has-failed-women-career-no-family-thatcher/

    Many feminists are married, so that seems like a stretch.
    I can think of a more tangible entity that has left Petronella.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,543
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Feminism has left middle-aged women like me single, childless and depressed
    We were taught to prioritise our careers over marriage – and now we are paying for it
    Petronella Wyatt"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2024/04/25/feminism-has-failed-women-career-no-family-thatcher/

    Are you sure it was feminism, rather than the affair with Boris Johnson?
    Not sure, but was a bit shocked by the article, how disappointed she seems with life.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Feminism has left middle-aged women like me single, childless and depressed
    We were taught to prioritise our careers over marriage – and now we are paying for it
    Petronella Wyatt"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2024/04/25/feminism-has-failed-women-career-no-family-thatcher/

    Are you sure it was feminism, rather than the affair with Boris Johnson?
    More to be pitied than censured.

    Though reading through manifold references to her in all 3 volumes of Woodrow Wyatt's published journals, might tip the scales the other way,
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,988

    I know some here strongly favour Scottish Independence - I respect your view but hope you now see how the SNP has blown it for the foreseeable future.

    The SNP had one job - to grow support for Independence by showing voters they could do better than Westminster. A more attractive economy? Nope. Better education? Nope. Better taxation rates? Nope. Better laws for a better Scotland? Nope. They had all that Barnett formula subsidy per head but still blew it.

    Paradoxically, the SNP would have fared better to govern as a minority like the first Salmond administration. Lots of negotiation, playing one opposition party against the others and (re)building a reputation for good governance.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @mikeysmith

    A thought. And I can't believe I'm having it.

    Did we consider checking if MPs could find Rwanda on a map before allowing them to vote on the bill? Might have saved some bother.

    It can be hard to find places in Darkest Africa, I mean just look at the place

    Looks like Stanley's trans African expedition.

    The Congo was never the same again.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,061
    edited April 25
    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:
    "Vampire facial" is the common name for a platelet-rich plasma microneedling procedure. In this treatment, a patient's blood is drawn, spun down to separate out plasma from blood cells, and the platelet-rich plasma is then injected into the face with microneedles. It's claimed—with little evidence—that it can rejuvenate and improve the look of skin, and got notable promotions from celebrities, including Gwyneth Paltrow and Kim Kardashian.

    I know many legitimately useful medical procedures can sound horrifying when described in a clinical manner, but who even comes up with the ideas for these things? Haven't all the Nazi doctors died by now?
    If you want nightmares, google why chainsaws were invented. It's not to cut down trees.
    You weren't kidding. Jesus!
    And now you know why I make funny jokes and like happy little dogs. Life can be utterly appalling.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,886
    edited April 25
    nico679 said:

    Yousafs only way to survive is to accept the list of demands from Salmond by way of Ash Regan.

    We know people like to cling to power but really this surely would be too much to stomach and would allow the opposition parties to have a field day .

    He really messed up today and has no one to blame but himself .

    So the stage is set for Kate Forbes who ironically might cause more problems for the opposition , that’s if she can overcome her position on certain social issues .

    I’m wondering whether the Tories are willing to accept this as an SNP recovery would dent Labour chances more than their own.

    Except Forbes appeals more to rural Scottish Tory leaning areas while Yousaf appeals more to former Labour big cities and the central belt. When the SNP was largely rural and small and fishing town it never got near power in Scotland, only when it reached into the central belt did it do so
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    viewcode said:

    Yokes said:

    'Humza Yousaf’s strategy to abrogate the Bute House Agreement would be as successful a strategy as Emperor Palpatine decision to allow the Rebel Alliance to know the location of the second Death Star.'

    What? Is that a Star Trek reference?

    It's a Star Wars reference. Not Star Trek. Different franchise, similar name.
    Surely it was NOT "Spaceballs", Shirley? Whatever - may the Schwartz be with you!
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,988
    viewcode said:

    Am I permitted to be smug over that fact that I knew there are two countries called (variants on) Congo? See also two Dominicas.

    And four varieties of Guineas.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    Yousafs only way to survive is to accept the list of demands from Salmond by way of Ash Regan.

    We know people like to cling to power but really this surely would be too much to stomach and would allow the opposition parties to have a field day .

    He really messed up today and has no one to blame but himself .

    So the stage is set for Kate Forbes who ironically might cause more problems for the opposition , that’s if she can overcome her position on certain social issues .

    I’m wondering whether the Tories are willing to accept this as an SNP recovery would dent Labour chances more than their own.

    Except Forbes appeals more to rural Scottish Tory leaning areas while Yousaf appeals more to former Labour big cities and the central belt. When the SNP was largely rural and small and fishing town it never got near power in Scotland, only when it reached into the central belt did it do so
    Good points there and something I hadn’t originally thought about . And of course her position on abortion , same sex marriage , and sex outside of marriage could be an issue with the more urban voters .

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ...
    Andy_JS said:

    "Feminism has left middle-aged women like me single, childless and depressed
    We were taught to prioritise our careers over marriage – and now we are paying for it
    Petronella Wyatt"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2024/04/25/feminism-has-failed-women-career-no-family-thatcher/

    Petronella you were not left on the shelf through feminism. You met and fell in love with a very bad man, an absolute scoundrel.This man promised you he would leave his wife for a lifetime with you. He lied, because he is a liar. Perhaps if you had shown a greater degree of feminist resilience you would have seen through this monstrous man's self-indulgence and kicked him out years before you did.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,233
    Jeepers


    JUST IN - King Charles’ funeral plans reportedly being updated regularly after cancer diagnosis: ‘He is really very unwell’ - NY Post

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,886
    Rishi goes for a run with 'hardest geezer'

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysYkaT17n8U
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,886
    Leon said:

    Jeepers


    JUST IN - King Charles’ funeral plans reportedly being updated regularly after cancer diagnosis: ‘He is really very unwell’ - NY Post

    Though also par for the course for a 75 year old sovereign 'A military source said that the plans were kept under constant review but that it would be “absurd to read anything into” that fact.

    “Planning for the worst is what the military do,” they said, adding: “You’ve got to remember the scale of this thing. The Household Division, under Major General James Bowder, take the lead—that is seven regiments of Guards. Then you have the entire London District, the Territorial Army regiments and the Royal Horse Artillery. That’s before you get to the Navy or Air Force. Charles was closely associated with the Parachute Regiment for years, so they will be involved.

    “That’s just the ceremonial end. Then you need a giant security operation because every VVIP on the planet is there. We’re talking everything from missile defense to guarding against a lone wolf attack. The whole thing goes from flash to bang in under two weeks which means every aspect of it needs to be meticulously planned in advance. Serious planning for Charles’ funeral began the day after they buried the queen.”
    https://www.thedailybeast.com/king-charles-funeral-plans-dusted-off-as-his-health-remains-a-mystery
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    sarissa said:

    viewcode said:

    Am I permitted to be smug over that fact that I knew there are two countries called (variants on) Congo? See also two Dominicas.

    And four varieties of Guineas.
    Nigeria and Niger. Sudan and South Sudan.

    Also North & South Carolina, North & South Dakota, Virginia & West Virginia.

    Ditto Honduras & British Honduras, Columbia & British Columbia & District of Columbia.

    Philadelphia City & County, Baltimore City & County, San Francisco & County.

    New York City & New York County (aka Borough of Manhattan) & New York State.

    California & Baja California & Baja California del Sur.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    Leon said:

    Jeepers


    JUST IN - King Charles’ funeral plans reportedly being updated regularly after cancer diagnosis: ‘He is really very unwell’ - NY Post

    I mean, he’s a 75 year old with cancer. I know given QEII and the Queen Mother and Philip we expect our senior royals to be bomb-proof into their 90s, but that’s not a given for anyone.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,233

    sarissa said:

    viewcode said:

    Am I permitted to be smug over that fact that I knew there are two countries called (variants on) Congo? See also two Dominicas.

    And four varieties of Guineas.
    Nigeria and Niger. Sudan and South Sudan.

    Also North & South Carolina, North & South Dakota, Virginia & West Virginia.

    Ditto Honduras & British Honduras, Columbia & British Columbia & District of Columbia.

    Philadelphia City & County, Baltimore City & County, San Francisco & County.

    New York City & New York County (aka Borough of Manhattan) & New York State.

    California & Baja California & Baja California del Sur.
    Two Cornwalls

    Cornwall in the UK: my homeland

    Cornouaille in France: where I am now
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,061

    sarissa said:

    viewcode said:

    Am I permitted to be smug over that fact that I knew there are two countries called (variants on) Congo? See also two Dominicas.

    And four varieties of Guineas.
    Nigeria and Niger. Sudan and South Sudan.

    Also North & South Carolina, North & South Dakota, Virginia & West Virginia.

    Ditto Honduras & British Honduras, Columbia & British Columbia & District of Columbia.

    Philadelphia City & County, Baltimore City & County, San Francisco & County.

    New York City & New York County (aka Borough of Manhattan) & New York State.

    California & Baja California & Baja California del Sur.
    From memory there are about six town/villages called "Whitchurch" in England.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950
    sarissa said:

    viewcode said:

    Am I permitted to be smug over that fact that I knew there are two countries called (variants on) Congo? See also two Dominicas.

    And four varieties of Guineas.
    Guiness Original, Guiness Draught, Guiness 0.0, Guiness Foreign Extra Stout
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,529

    I know some here strongly favour Scottish Independence - I respect your view but hope you now see how the SNP has blown it for the foreseeable future.

    The SNP had one job - to grow support for Independence by showing voters they could do better than Westminster. A more attractive economy? Nope. Better education? Nope. Better taxation rates? Nope. Better laws for a better Scotland? Nope. They had all that Barnett formula subsidy per head but still blew it.

    Must be really unobservant but haven't noticed a big 'respect your view' vibe over the years. In fact not even a teeny one.
    I am a Unionist - but I have always said that I will live by what the voters of Scotland vote for. If Scotland votes for independence than I will have to do my bit to make it work.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Three quiz questions for the PB Brains Trust to ponder overnight.

    1. Is it time for TRUSS?
    2. Is TRUSS an idea for now?
    3. TRUSS?
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 732

    Three quiz questions for the PB Brains Trust to ponder overnight.

    1. Is it time for TRUSS?
    2. Is TRUSS an idea for now?
    3. TRUSS?

    https://www.dailymotion.com/video/xz3805
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,233
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Feminism has left middle-aged women like me single, childless and depressed
    We were taught to prioritise our careers over marriage – and now we are paying for it
    Petronella Wyatt"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2024/04/25/feminism-has-failed-women-career-no-family-thatcher/

    Are you sure it was feminism, rather than the affair with Boris Johnson?
    Not sure, but was a bit shocked by the article, how disappointed she seems with life.
    It is a sad, well-written piece.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,600
    There’s a campaign to call the renationalised railway “Rail Britannia” complete with a Rule Britannia jingle:

    https://x.com/louhaigh/status/1783585720151482425
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    City of New Orleans and Orleans Parish, which cover exactly the same turf (as with Philadelphia City and County, also San Francisco City & County, but NOT Baltimore City & County which cover different areas.

    With the city pronounced by locals ""New Or-lans" or "New Aw-lans" or reasonable facsimile.

    However, the Parish is pronounced "Or-LEENS" by locals; tourists don't know it exists UNLESS they get thrown into the Orleans Parish Prison during Mardi Gras.

    NOT the best place to "laissez les bon temps roulez".
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,332
    sarissa said:

    viewcode said:

    Am I permitted to be smug over that fact that I knew there are two countries called (variants on) Congo? See also two Dominicas.

    And four varieties of Guineas.
    1000 Guineas, 2000 Guineas, Irish 1000 Guineas, Irish 2000 Guineas
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,272
    edited April 25
    Leon said:

    Jeepers


    JUST IN - King Charles’ funeral plans reportedly being updated regularly after cancer diagnosis: ‘He is really very unwell’ - NY Post

    It's been obvious from the moment the Palace went public with the diagnosis that he is very seriously ill.

    His cancer was discovered when he was having treatment for his enlarged prostate so everyone assumed that meant it was caught at an early stage, but that isn't necessarily so.

    If it had been caught at an early stage the first line of treatment would have been an operation to remove the malignancy (the surgical route is ALWAYS the primary treatment route with cancer if and when possible)

    The fact they discovered the cancer incidentally and he is then having chemo (or radiotherapy, or both) suggests the cancer was non-operable at the point it was discovered (NOTE: the exception would be in the case of blood cancers such as lymphoma or leukemia)

    My guess is that King Charles has a very serious cancer, such as pancreatic cancer, which is infamous for not giving any symptoms until so advanced its non-operable and only showed up in routine blood tests when he had his procedure on his prostate.

    Even at the point it was noticed in his bloods it had probably already seeded to his liver, unfortunately.

    Hopefully the treatment he is getting will give him some quality time with his loved ones and make him as comfortable as possible.

    (Speaking purely in the capacity of a cancer survivor since 2022)
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 732
    Why did they not specify the type of cancer, when they were candid about the enlarged prostate?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,061
    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Jeepers


    JUST IN - King Charles’ funeral plans reportedly being updated regularly after cancer diagnosis: ‘He is really very unwell’ - NY Post

    It's been obvious from the moment the Palace went public with the diagnosis that he is very seriously ill.

    His cancer was discovered when he was having treatment for his enlarged prostate so everyone assumed that meant it was caught at an early stage, but that isn't necessarily so.

    If it had been caught at an early stage the first line of treatment would have been an operation to remove the malignancy (the surgical route is ALWAYS the primary treatment route with cancer if and when possible)

    The fact they discovered the cancer incidentally and he is then having chemo (or radiotherapy, or both) suggests the cancer was non-operable at the point it was discovered (NOTE: the exception would be in the case of blood cancers such as lymphoma or leukemia)

    My guess is that King Charles has a very serious cancer, such as pancreatic cancer, which is infamous for not giving any symptoms until so advanced its non-operable and only showed up in routine blood tests when he had his procedure on his prostate.

    Even at the point it was noticed in his bloods it had probably already seeded to his liver, unfortunately.

    Hopefully the treatment he is getting will give him some quality time with his loved ones and make him as comfortable as possible.

    (Speaking purely in the capacity of a cancer survivor since 2022)
    From memory, pancreatic cancer with secondaries in the liver is a death sentence. I'm not even sure chemo is offered in such cases. If he is getting chemo then that's ironically hopeful: it's not like it's "here's the morphine, get the bed downstairs" yet.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,543
    edited April 26
    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Jeepers


    JUST IN - King Charles’ funeral plans reportedly being updated regularly after cancer diagnosis: ‘He is really very unwell’ - NY Post

    It's been obvious from the moment the Palace went public with the diagnosis that he is very seriously ill.

    His cancer was discovered when he was having treatment for his enlarged prostate so everyone assumed that meant it was caught at an early stage, but that isn't necessarily so.

    If it had been caught at an early stage the first line of treatment would have been an operation to remove the malignancy (the surgical route is ALWAYS the primary treatment route with cancer if and when possible)

    The fact they discovered the cancer incidentally and he is then having chemo (or radiotherapy, or both) suggests the cancer was non-operable at the point it was discovered (NOTE: the exception would be in the case of blood cancers such as lymphoma or leukemia)

    My guess is that King Charles has a very serious cancer, such as pancreatic cancer, which is infamous for not giving any symptoms until so advanced its non-operable and only showed up in routine blood tests when he had his procedure on his prostate.

    Even at the point it was noticed in his bloods it had probably already seeded to his liver, unfortunately.

    Hopefully the treatment he is getting will give him some quality time with his loved ones and make him as comfortable as possible.

    (Speaking purely in the capacity of a cancer survivor since 2022)
    You seem to be making a lot of assumptions. Surely the truth is we don't know how serious his condition s.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,272
    edited April 26
    Andy_JS said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Jeepers


    JUST IN - King Charles’ funeral plans reportedly being updated regularly after cancer diagnosis: ‘He is really very unwell’ - NY Post

    It's been obvious from the moment the Palace went public with the diagnosis that he is very seriously ill.

    His cancer was discovered when he was having treatment for his enlarged prostate so everyone assumed that meant it was caught at an early stage, but that isn't necessarily so.

    If it had been caught at an early stage the first line of treatment would have been an operation to remove the malignancy (the surgical route is ALWAYS the primary treatment route with cancer if and when possible)

    The fact they discovered the cancer incidentally and he is then having chemo (or radiotherapy, or both) suggests the cancer was non-operable at the point it was discovered (NOTE: the exception would be in the case of blood cancers such as lymphoma or leukemia)

    My guess is that King Charles has a very serious cancer, such as pancreatic cancer, which is infamous for not giving any symptoms until so advanced its non-operable and only showed up in routine blood tests when he had his procedure on his prostate.

    Even at the point it was noticed in his bloods it had probably already seeded to his liver, unfortunately.

    Hopefully the treatment he is getting will give him some quality time with his loved ones and make him as comfortable as possible.

    (Speaking purely in the capacity of a cancer survivor since 2022)
    You seem to be making a lot of assumptions. Surely the truth is we don't know how serious his condition s.
    I mean, I said "my guess is..." and that I'm speaking purely in the capacity as a cancer survivor (albeit one who has spent literally hundreds or maybe even thousands of hours studying my nemesis and potential killer - CANCER)

    So my post is just an educated guess based on what I know of cancer and if I'm wrong and King Charles is still alive and healthy in 2027, no one will be more delighted than me (assuming my pesky cancerous cells haven't taken me out by then, lol)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,863

    Major IT outage at Sainsbury's this evening. I, and 1000s of others, can't check out from an online delivery order.

    Been over three hours now.

    Sainsbury's had the same problem a few weeks ago iirc.
    As Sainsbury's announced its results, a "technical issue" hit some of its online deliveries on Thursday.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68895280
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,600
    The scenes from US campus protests continue to get worse:

    https://x.com/uicprofwatch/status/1783625176887799938
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    After seeing so many women raising well-founded, moderately-expressed concerns about gender self-ID treated so badly by political parties & society more widely… let’s just say it’s hard not to smile wryly at the position that Yousaf now finds himself in.

    https://x.com/soniasodha/status/1783578199282057416
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Good morning from beautiful Norway. I’ve been off here but notice as soon as I return that the psychotic obsession with gender stuff goes on ^^^. It’s like feeding a caged rabbit with grass each day. I guess it gives old men something to chew down on.

    In actual important news, the kind which concerns a political betting site, that Best for Britain Survation poll is a huge sample size: 15,000. Anyone know more about it? I don’t know anything about ‘Best for Britain’ but assume Survation have conducted it all as per rigorous standards. Anyway, it gives Labour a 21% lead.

    My guess is that the locals in their projected national share will have the Conservatives c. 3-6% above their current national opinion polling. If that’s right then some will latch onto it as a sign that the polls are wrong, rather than the local effect which may raise their mark a little higher.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited April 26
    p.s. by the way, when I glance on here these days I notice @TSE that you very often use twitter to inform your thread headers. I think this is a pity and a departure from Mike’s approach. I can understand why, since it must be time consuming and difficult to think up threads, especially witty ones.

    But some of us have left twitter, X, for a good reason.

    There’s nothing wrong with very short and sweet thread headers.

    Meant kindly and gently xx
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Oh and I notice that Labour will renationalise the railways. Absolutely marvellous news. As an avid rail user who doesn’t own a car I am thrilled by this. Britain’s railways are a bloody shambles. SWR and Southern are particularly awful but they are not alone.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549
    Heathener said:

    Oh and I notice that Labour will renationalise the railways. Absolutely marvellous news. As an avid rail user who doesn’t own a car I am thrilled by this. Britain’s railways are a bloody shambles. SWR and Southern are particularly awful but they are not alone.

    Why do you think the small changes they're making will make any positive difference to your experience as a passenger?

    (And they are not 'renationalising the railways'. They are slowly going to take some franchises into public ownership. Railfreght remains nationalised, ROSCOs remain, and OA continues. This is *not* a return to BR - perhaps thanks goodness.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    The Scottish government would be the voice of a particular kind of largely-Glaswegian smugness: holier than thou, briskly intolerant of alternative views, and firmly of the view that if the people lacked the wisdom or vision to appreciate what was good for them the government would impose it upon them anyway. An eat-your-oat-milk-porridge kind of ministry certain of its own moral probity and powered by its own sanctimonious certainty.

    https://alexmassie.substack.com/p/the-end-of-a-very-small-song
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,572
    Heathener said:

    Good morning from beautiful Norway. I’ve been off here but notice as soon as I return that the psychotic obsession with gender stuff goes on ^^^. It’s like feeding a caged rabbit with grass each day. I guess it gives old men something to chew down on.

    In actual important news, the kind which concerns a political betting site, that Best for Britain Survation poll is a huge sample size: 15,000. Anyone know more about it? I don’t know anything about ‘Best for Britain’ but assume Survation have conducted it all as per rigorous standards. Anyway, it gives Labour a 21% lead.

    My guess is that the locals in their projected national share will have the Conservatives c. 3-6% above their current national opinion polling. If that’s right then some will latch onto it as a sign that the polls are wrong, rather than the local effect which may raise their mark a little higher.

    Best for Britain is the official Remain campaign, renamed.

    (We know this, amusingly, because of EU data protection laws: they are the registered data controllers for the data Remain collected during the campaign.)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited April 26
    Heathener said:

    the psychotic obsession with gender stuff goes on ^^^.

    The "stuff" that's just helped end the Bute House agreement and may bring down the Scottish government?

    That led to the exit from the SNP of Ash Regan, who now holds the deciding vote?

    That helped end Sturgeon's career?

    None so blind......
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Summary: Humza Yousaf defeated Ash Regan by promising to govern as a gender ideologue. Despite this, the Greens want to oust him for not giving puberty blockers to children. So now he has to offer Regan gender promises to save himself. Not sure the Greens thought this one through

    https://x.com/ripx4nutmeg/status/1783566880852017173
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    The SNP may pin its hopes on a new leader but whoever takes over will inherit a party in deep trouble. A highly competent leader elected a year ago might just have managed to navigate the SNP through the mess left by Sturgeon but will face an even more daunting task now. Whether or not momentum is with Labour it is clearly against the SNP.

    James Mitchell is professor of public policy at Edinburgh University.


    https://archive.is/O6EJS#selection-2871.0-2890.0
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627
    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Jeepers


    JUST IN - King Charles’ funeral plans reportedly being updated regularly after cancer diagnosis: ‘He is really very unwell’ - NY Post

    It's been obvious from the moment the Palace went public with the diagnosis that he is very seriously ill.

    His cancer was discovered when he was having treatment for his enlarged prostate so everyone assumed that meant it was caught at an early stage, but that isn't necessarily so.

    If it had been caught at an early stage the first line of treatment would have been an operation to remove the malignancy (the surgical route is ALWAYS the primary treatment route with cancer if and when possible)

    The fact they discovered the cancer incidentally and he is then having chemo (or radiotherapy, or both) suggests the cancer was non-operable at the point it was discovered (NOTE: the exception would be in the case of blood cancers such as lymphoma or leukemia)

    My guess is that King Charles has a very serious cancer, such as pancreatic cancer, which is infamous for not giving any symptoms until so advanced its non-operable and only showed up in routine blood tests when he had his procedure on his prostate.

    Even at the point it was noticed in his bloods it had probably already seeded to his liver, unfortunately.

    Hopefully the treatment he is getting will give him some quality time with his loved ones and make him as comfortable as possible.

    (Speaking purely in the capacity of a cancer survivor since 2022)
    I think this a likely analysis. Straight to non-surgical treatment means either lymphoma/leukemia or advanced disease. Lymphoma could be an incidental finding, leukemia more likely to be picked up on routine bloods. A further possibility would be bladder cancer operated on at the time of the prostate op.

    Keeping the funeral plans updated seems a wise precaution. A long reign into his nineties looks unlikely.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 480
    Foxy said:

    The latest survation large sample poll is poison to the tories.

    Up from 19% to 21% lead to labour.

    This is interesting. Even Telegraph readers favour Labour...


    Look at the express
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627
    edited April 26

    Foxy said:

    The latest survation large sample poll is poison to the tories.

    Up from 19% to 21% lead to labour.

    This is interesting. Even Telegraph readers favour Labour...


    Look at the express
    There is a large Reform vote too. I was surprised to see Labour ahead with GBNews watchers too:

    "When asked if they would consider tactically to secure a change of UK Government, 32% of Daily Mail readers, 39% of Sun readers, 40% of Express readers and 43% of Telegraph readers said that they were ready to do so.

    Conversely, just, 17% of Daily Mail readers, 15% of Sun readers, 24% of Express readers and 18% of Telegraph readers said that they would consider voting tactically to save Sunak's administration.

    The findings come as a separate poll showed a similar trend among GBnews watchers, where Labour lead by 39% to 28% when “don’t knows” are excluded."

    https://www.bestforbritain.org/the_read_wall

    Presumably many of the "Tactical Voters" are Reform supporters. Not much hope for Sunak from these.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 480
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    The latest survation large sample poll is poison to the tories.

    Up from 19% to 21% lead to labour.

    This is interesting. Even Telegraph readers favour Labour...


    Look at the express
    There is a large Reform vote too. I was surprised to see Labour ahead with GBNews watchers too:

    "When asked if they would consider tactically to secure a change of UK Government, 32% of Daily Mail readers, 39% of Sun readers, 40% of Express readers and 43% of Telegraph readers said that they were ready to do so.

    Conversely, just, 17% of Daily Mail readers, 15% of Sun readers, 24% of Express readers and 18% of Telegraph readers said that they would consider voting tactically to save Sunak's administration.

    The findings come as a separate poll showed a similar trend among GBnews watchers, where Labour lead by 39% to 28% when “don’t knows” are excluded."

    https://www.bestforbritain.org/the_read_wall

    Presumably many of the "Tactical Voters" are Reform supporters. Not much hope for Sunak from these.
    "Voters are hoosing to trust their lived experience"

    Oh dear.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    A top Human Rights Council-appointed expert has welcomed the decision by all health authorities in the United Kingdom to halt the routine use of puberty-blockers offered to children as part of gender transition services, amid a sharp increase more widely in the number of teenage girls seeking such treatment and concerns that it might disrupt brain development.

    https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/04/1148986
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Hearing there's ANOTHER emergency Cabinet meeting tomorrow morning. Doesn't necessarily precipitate an event, but an event isn't far off.

    https://x.com/WingsScotland/status/1783623932869828616
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    edited April 26
    I’m a bit confused re the Kings cancer . Wouldn’t he have been regularly screened so any cancer would have been caught early ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627
    Heathener said:

    Good morning from beautiful Norway. I’ve been off here but notice as soon as I return that the psychotic obsession with gender stuff goes on ^^^. It’s like feeding a caged rabbit with grass each day. I guess it gives old men something to chew down on.

    In actual important news, the kind which concerns a political betting site, that Best for Britain Survation poll is a huge sample size: 15,000. Anyone know more about it? I don’t know anything about ‘Best for Britain’ but assume Survation have conducted it all as per rigorous standards. Anyway, it gives Labour a 21% lead.

    My guess is that the locals in their projected national share will have the Conservatives c. 3-6% above their current national opinion polling. If that’s right then some will latch onto it as a sign that the polls are wrong, rather than the local effect which may raise their mark a little higher.

    The data tables are linked to from here:

    https://assets.nationbuilder.com/b4b/pages/5777/attachments/original/1714052856/B4B_MRP_2024-03-25_Tables_V3_(1).xlsx?1714052856

    The undecided seem to break almost exactly evenly between con and Lab at 29% each. There is also a question on Reform voters asking who they would vote for if Reform didn't stand. This favoured Con by 38% to 9% to Lab, with the remainder going to smaller parties such as UKIP and Reclaim (28% together). Reform not standing helps the Tories by 30% or so of their share, so 3-4% of the total vote. This isn't enough in a poll that estimates its MOE as 0.8%.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited April 26
    Humza Yousaf is basically cooked - even if he survives a vote of no confidence. My analysis for @ScotNational

    https://x.com/HMorrison97/status/1783579416355893566
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,353

    Humza Yousaf is basically cooked - even if he survives a vote of no confidence. My analysis for @ScotNational

    https://x.com/HMorrison97/status/1783579416355893566

    If the SNP are talking about trying to install Swinney as FM pro tempore then they must be truly fucking desperate.

    Man makes Yousaf look competent.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,747
    edited April 26
    nico679 said:

    I’m a bit confused re the Kings cancer . Wouldn’t he have been regularly screened so any cancer would have been caught early ?

    Didn't the prime minister, in his capacity as a freelance royal press officer, tell us that it had been caught early?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,986
    ydoethur said:

    Humza Yousaf is basically cooked - even if he survives a vote of no confidence. My analysis for @ScotNational

    https://x.com/HMorrison97/status/1783579416355893566

    If the SNP are talking about trying to install Swinney as FM pro tempore then they must be truly fucking desperate.

    Man makes Yousaf look competent.
    They are truly fucking desperate...
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    Summary: Humza Yousaf defeated Ash Regan by promising to govern as a gender ideologue. Despite this, the Greens want to oust him for not giving puberty blockers to children. So now he has to offer Regan gender promises to save himself. Not sure the Greens thought this one through

    https://x.com/ripx4nutmeg/status/1783566880852017173

    Idealogues a bit shit at politics shock.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,411

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Feminism has left middle-aged women like me single, childless and depressed
    We were taught to prioritise our careers over marriage – and now we are paying for it
    Petronella Wyatt"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2024/04/25/feminism-has-failed-women-career-no-family-thatcher/

    Many feminists are married, so that seems like a stretch.
    I can think of a more tangible entity that has left Petronella.
    It's all muscle.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627
    ydoethur said:

    Humza Yousaf is basically cooked - even if he survives a vote of no confidence. My analysis for @ScotNational

    https://x.com/HMorrison97/status/1783579416355893566

    If the SNP are talking about trying to install Swinney as FM pro tempore then they must be truly fucking desperate.

    Man makes Yousaf look competent.
    Kate Forbes perhaps?

    Surely all Starmer's wishes cannot come true? That would give SLAB quite some cental belt advantage.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895
    So, Chris Phillip, on his way home from Ques

    Heathener said:

    Oh and I notice that Labour will renationalise the railways. Absolutely marvellous news. As an avid rail user who doesn’t own a car I am thrilled by this. Britain’s railways are a bloody shambles. SWR and Southern are particularly awful but they are not alone.

    Why do you think the small changes they're making will make any positive difference to your experience as a passenger?

    (And they are not 'renationalising the railways'. They are slowly going to take some franchises into public ownership. Railfreght remains nationalised, ROSCOs remain, and OA continues. This is *not* a return to BR - perhaps thanks goodness.
    Pedant alert - even the privatised franchises were publicly owned. All we ever did was sign over the operating rights for a fixed period, at the end of which operating rights returned to the owner - us.

    My worries about this Labour plan is that they are still wedded to public good private bad dogma. Removing the money skimmed off the top by contractors would be a good thing as long as we then have rail professionals running the thing as a StateCo like Germany, France, Netherlands, Italy etc who made up most of the “privatised” operators.

    My fear is that they envisage the DfT running the show. And the DfT is why it is so utterly broken…
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,552

    Hearing there's ANOTHER emergency Cabinet meeting tomorrow morning. Doesn't necessarily precipitate an event, but an event isn't far off.

    https://x.com/WingsScotland/status/1783623932869828616

    You wait YEARS for an emergency Cabinet meeting to come along, and then there's a bunch of them all at once...

    I'm old enough to remember when a sex scandal bringing down a Government wasn't about gender.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,552

    Foxy said:

    The latest survation large sample poll is poison to the tories.

    Up from 19% to 21% lead to labour.

    This is interesting. Even Telegraph readers favour Labour...


    Look at the express
    The Express that has painted the Tories from Johnson onwards as cartoon clowns? That Express?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,233

    Hearing there's ANOTHER emergency Cabinet meeting tomorrow morning. Doesn't necessarily precipitate an event, but an event isn't far off.

    https://x.com/WingsScotland/status/1783623932869828616

    You wait YEARS for an emergency Cabinet meeting to come along, and then there's a bunch of them all at once...

    I'm old enough to remember when a sex scandal bringing down a Government wasn't about gender.
    Similarly, you can wait years for a new sovereign. And then suddenly….

    Jeez the royal family suddenly looks very small. Harry needs to shape up

    This is not idle speculation. The foreign press is sounding the alarum over our king - and they are quite often correct. This makes me sad, I rather like KCIII, I agree with him entirely about architecture. I wish he could design every new build in the country

    I hope it’s all wrong and he’ll be apples but hmmmmmmmm
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627
    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Feminism has left middle-aged women like me single, childless and depressed
    We were taught to prioritise our careers over marriage – and now we are paying for it
    Petronella Wyatt"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2024/04/25/feminism-has-failed-women-career-no-family-thatcher/

    Are you sure it was feminism, rather than the affair with Boris Johnson?
    Not sure, but was a bit shocked by the article, how disappointed she seems with life.
    She certainly sounds quite depressed. I have some sympathy for her, but she came from a wealthy family, is well educated and has agency. That includes wasting her fertile years as the mistress of a notorious philanderer that paid for her abortion. She sounds more a doormat than a feminist.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,128
    Good morning all.

    How long does the Kerch strait bridge have left, then?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    For maximum popcorn effect:

    Yousaf concedes every single one of Regan's demands;

    Sturgeon is then charged on the day of the vote and can't attend, so he loses anyway.

    Hard to predict these things, but given the length of the investigation it does seem odd why not arrest everyone at the same time if they were going to arrest multiple people. I mean, what would a few more weeks or months be at this point?
    Best pal runs the crown office, you gave her her job and on and on and on
  • MuesliMuesli Posts: 202

    Foxy said:

    The latest survation large sample poll is poison to the tories.

    Up from 19% to 21% lead to labour.

    This is interesting. Even Telegraph readers favour Labour...


    Look at the express
    The Express that has painted the Tories from Johnson onwards as cartoon clowns? That Express?
    You’re thinking of the Daily Star. The Express heralds every announcement or initiative farted out by the Sunak government as if it was the Magna Carta.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    edited April 26

    ...

    Andy_JS said:

    "Feminism has left middle-aged women like me single, childless and depressed
    We were taught to prioritise our careers over marriage – and now we are paying for it
    Petronella Wyatt"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2024/04/25/feminism-has-failed-women-career-no-family-thatcher/

    Petronella you were not left on the shelf through feminism. You met and fell in love with a very bad man, an absolute scoundrel.This man promised you he would leave his wife for a lifetime with you. He lied, because he is a liar. Perhaps if you had shown a greater degree of feminist resilience you would have seen through this monstrous man's self-indulgence and kicked him out years before you did.
    +1 Didn’t she also have an aborigine, with the suggestion that Boris pressured her into it? I’m fully supportive of the woman’s right to choose, but she’s childless as a result of her own decision making, and if that was forced upon her by a nasty man, that would appear to be the very opposite of feminism, surely? (‘Aborigine’ was the iPad’s attempt at correction, which I will leave in for, well, why not?)
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,767
    TimS said:

    I suspect Chris Philp did actually know Congo and Rwanda are separate countries. His question was rhetorical.

    The more arresting thing was he clearly had no idea of the dynamics of the long running conflict in Eastern DRC and the role of Rwandan troops and paramilitaries there. That was the whole point of the man’s question. Yet Philps along with his parliamentary party has just voted to make it law that Rwanda is safe.

    The whole thing of passing a law on a factual matter still blows my mind. Think of the opportunities:

    - The cleanliness of seawater bill
    - The integrity of the Fujitsu Horizon system bill
    - The veracity of seven bins bill
    - The London definitely is a crime ridden hellhole with no go areas and centre of the metropolitan elite including the Daily Star bill

    Strong vibes of the law dictating the value of pi. You're right, it is really the defining piece of legislation of this government.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,863
    Foxy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Jeepers


    JUST IN - King Charles’ funeral plans reportedly being updated regularly after cancer diagnosis: ‘He is really very unwell’ - NY Post

    It's been obvious from the moment the Palace went public with the diagnosis that he is very seriously ill.

    His cancer was discovered when he was having treatment for his enlarged prostate so everyone assumed that meant it was caught at an early stage, but that isn't necessarily so.

    If it had been caught at an early stage the first line of treatment would have been an operation to remove the malignancy (the surgical route is ALWAYS the primary treatment route with cancer if and when possible)

    The fact they discovered the cancer incidentally and he is then having chemo (or radiotherapy, or both) suggests the cancer was non-operable at the point it was discovered (NOTE: the exception would be in the case of blood cancers such as lymphoma or leukemia)

    My guess is that King Charles has a very serious cancer, such as pancreatic cancer, which is infamous for not giving any symptoms until so advanced its non-operable and only showed up in routine blood tests when he had his procedure on his prostate.

    Even at the point it was noticed in his bloods it had probably already seeded to his liver, unfortunately.

    Hopefully the treatment he is getting will give him some quality time with his loved ones and make him as comfortable as possible.

    (Speaking purely in the capacity of a cancer survivor since 2022)
    I think this a likely analysis. Straight to non-surgical treatment means either lymphoma/leukemia or advanced disease. Lymphoma could be an incidental finding, leukemia more likely to be picked up on routine bloods. A further possibility would be bladder cancer operated on at the time of the prostate op.

    Keeping the funeral plans updated seems a wise precaution. A long reign into his nineties looks unlikely.
    Coincidentally, The Rest is Entertainment has discussed the Category 1 list, whose deaths would automatically mean interrupting BBC programming: King, Queen, William, (new entry) Kate.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5jzZa2pfVG8&t=35s
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627

    Foxy said:

    The latest survation large sample poll is poison to the tories.

    Up from 19% to 21% lead to labour.

    This is interesting. Even Telegraph readers favour Labour...


    Look at the express
    The Express that has painted the Tories from Johnson onwards as cartoon clowns? That Express?
    It's not as if they have been kind to Starmer or Rayner, yet Labour leads amongst Express readers.

    The clock of doom is ticking loudly for the Tories.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anyone who makes demands as suggested shoukd be told to fuck right off.....How much did May cost us in demands from N I.?

    It was the dementia tax, actually.

    But - actually - Yousaf can't afford to do that. He is totally stuck and it's entirely his own fault.
    Entirely his fault? OK, he's handled the last couple of months with the sophistication of a hamster in an escape room.

    But a lot of his problems are just because he has been left holding the ticking parcel when the music stopped. A different version of this fiasco would have happened under Regan or Forbes. Maybe even under Sturgeon.
    I for one still believe Sturgeon quitting and what followed with the legal troubles was a complete coincidence .
    I have the Forth Bridge to sell you. £5. Buyer collects.
    LOL, PB Scotch Expert indeed.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,643

    Hearing there's ANOTHER emergency Cabinet meeting tomorrow morning. Doesn't necessarily precipitate an event, but an event isn't far off.

    https://x.com/WingsScotland/status/1783623932869828616

    You wait YEARS for an emergency Cabinet meeting to come along, and then there's a bunch of them all at once...

    I'm old enough to remember when a sex scandal bringing down a Government wasn't about gender.
    What's interesting about this is there are so many issues floating about - Trans, climate change targets, Branchform.

    I know that PB absolutely loves the idea that Trans is the big issue here, but I think the climate change reversal is far more significant. And I don't think going for Forbes is the answer for the SNP - this is an exceptionally broad coalition, and there is far more scope to lose further votes on the left than on the right imo. The SNP are still polling reasonably well despite everything.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    Muesli said:

    Foxy said:

    The latest survation large sample poll is poison to the tories.

    Up from 19% to 21% lead to labour.

    This is interesting. Even Telegraph readers favour Labour...


    Look at the express
    The Express that has painted the Tories from Johnson onwards as cartoon clowns? That Express?
    You’re thinking of the Daily Star. The Express heralds every announcement or initiative farted out by the Sunak government as if it was the Magna Carta.
    OMG that’s so funny . And so on point aswell .
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027
    edited April 26
    Good morning

    Scotland politics is in chaos and who can say where this will go but Yousaf time as first minister must be over

    On Rwanda seems the bill has resulted in unexpected consequences with Ireland experiencing asylum seekers in the UK travelling to Northern Ireland and crossing into Ireland and of course the EU

    This is the so called deterrent effect actually happening and a real issue for Irish politicians and others

    https://news.sky.com/story/rwanda-bill-causing-migrants-to-opt-for-ireland-deputy-pm-says-13123078
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,572

    Good morning

    Scotland politics is in chaos and who can say where this will go but Yousaf time as first minister must be over

    On Rwanda seems the bill has resulted in unexpected consequences with Ireland experiencing asylum seekers in the UK travelling to Northern Ireland and crossing into Ireland and of course the EU

    This is the so called deterrent effect is actually happening and a real issue for Irish politicians and others

    https://news.sky.com/story/rwanda-bill-causing-migrants-to-opt-for-ireland-deputy-pm-says-13123078

    If RoI join our scheme, and make it a CTA one...
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    The biggest surprise over the last year has been how well the pro independence polling has held up inspite of all the SNP drama.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Hearing there's ANOTHER emergency Cabinet meeting tomorrow morning. Doesn't necessarily precipitate an event, but an event isn't far off.

    https://x.com/WingsScotland/status/1783623932869828616

    You wait YEARS for an emergency Cabinet meeting to come along, and then there's a bunch of them all at once...

    I'm old enough to remember when a sex scandal bringing down a Government wasn't about gender.
    That'll be half the total number of emergency cabinet meetings in the history of Holyrood...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027
    nico679 said:

    The biggest surprise over the last year has been how well the pro independence polling has held up inspite of all the SNP drama.

    Not really and actually if the SNP resolve this it could become more salient

    There is no love for being ruled by the English in Westminster
  • sbjme19sbjme19 Posts: 194
    nico679 said:

    Muesli said:

    Foxy said:

    The latest survation large sample poll is poison to the tories.

    Up from 19% to 21% lead to labour.

    This is interesting. Even Telegraph readers favour Labour...


    Look at the express
    The Express that has painted the Tories from Johnson onwards as cartoon clowns? That Express?
    You’re thinking of the Daily Star. The Express heralds every announcement or initiative farted out by the Sunak government as if it was the Magna Carta.
    OMG that’s so funny . And so on point aswell .
    The Express always reminds me of the old joke about Pravda and tractor production. It just trumpets "triumphs" while the Mail and Telegraph dig for dirt about Labour.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,233
    Do people understand how good written/literary AI is now? I just asked Claude 3 Opus this question. Its a new conversation so its memory starts entirely blank

    “Good morning Claude I hope you’re good. I’m a writer called Leon and I’m doing a travel piece in Brittany. Right now I’m off to the Crozon peninsula. What should I do there?”

    2 seconds later:



    “Good morning Leon! The Crozon peninsula in Brittany is a beautiful area with plenty of things to see and do. Here are some suggestions for your travel piece:

    Visit the stunning beaches: The peninsula is known for its beautiful beaches, such as Morgat, Île Vierge, and La Palue. These offer great opportunities for swimming, sunbathing, and water sports.

    Explore the cliffs and coves: The rugged coastline is dotted with impressive cliffs and hidden coves. Some notable spots include Cap de la Chèvre, Pointe de Dinan, and Pointe de Penhir.

    Hike the coastal paths: The GR34 hiking trail, also known as the "Sentier des Douaniers," runs along the coast and offers breathtaking views of the sea and the surrounding landscapes.

    Discover the medieval town of Camaret-sur-Mer: This charming port town features a 17th-century fortified tower, Vauban's Tower, which is a UNESCO World Heritage site. The town also has a lovely harbor and several good restaurants.

    Visit the Crozon Prehistoric Museum: This museum showcases the region's rich archaeological heritage, with exhibits on prehistoric tools, jewelry, and megalithic monuments.

    Explore the Crozon Caves: The peninsula is home to several impressive sea caves, such as the Grotte de l'Autel and the Grotte du Korriganm, which can be visited by boat.

    Sample the local cuisine: Brittany is famous for its seafood, so be sure to try some local specialties like oysters, mussels, and the famous "kouign amann" pastry.

    These are just a few ideas to get you started. The Crozon peninsula has a lot to offer, and you're sure to find plenty of inspiration for your travel piece!”

    I mean, wow. That’s crisp clever and creditably well informed. That’s pro guide book level writing - bespoke for you — produced to order in 2 seconds.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,354

    I know some here strongly favour Scottish Independence - I respect your view but hope you now see how the SNP has blown it for the foreseeable future.

    The SNP had one job - to grow support for Independence by showing voters they could do better than Westminster. A more attractive economy? Nope. Better education? Nope. Better taxation rates? Nope. Better laws for a better Scotland? Nope. They had all that Barnett formula subsidy per head but still blew it.

    Yes. They could have built a 60-70% strong support for Independence on the back of making a success of Holyrood. Indeed, this appears to be the Sinn Fein strategy now that they have the role of First Minister at Stormont.

    But Sturgeon was all political game-playing and wedge-seeking. In the tenth year after the referendum it looks a lot like a wasted decade.
    Sturgeon didn't make Brexit a wedge issue when she should have. Cosying up to the People's Vote & #FBPE mob when she could have quite simply said though I disagree with it, England has made its choice and Scotland has made a different one. It would have had the straightforward virtue of being stone cold true.
    Well, that wasn't my experience. I do think that Sturgeon used Brexit as a wedge issue. She was always asking for a different deal for Scotland, because the vote had gone differently for Scotland. She did argue that it justified a second independence referendum in Scotland. And I was convinced by many of these arguments, and for a time I supported Scottish independence on the basis of preferring to be on the European side of the wedge - until the situation with Northern Ireland made it clear how disastrous that would be.

    But I wasn't thinking of Brexit at all, as it happens. I was thinking about every other political decision made. The test of a policy seemed to be solely whether it created a point of difference with England, and not whether it was a good idea, or was part of a coherent plan for improving Scotland. The climate targets are a pretty good example. They seem to have been adopted by the SNP solely to be one step more ambitious than the Westminster government, but with no plan as to how to achieve them, or how to use them as a springboard for developing the economy in Scotland to take advantage of the opportunities that this transformation would create.

    And so, when the Scottish government misses the annual targets that follow from the headline targets, nothing is done to try and get back on course. Where are the policies that might move the transition faster in Scotland? Where is the faster rollout of EV charging? Where is the push to increase grid storage of renewable electricity? Where are the opportunities for new companies to develop new technologies that would be created by a determined approach to meeting these targets? Instead the 2030 target is simply abandoned, and the 2045 target retained, to retain the point of difference with Westminster, although everyone except the most credulous must see that it is an empty promise given the vigour with which the interim targets have been addressed.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549
    MattW said:

    Good morning all.

    How long does the Kerch strait bridge have left, then?

    It's going to be a *much* harder target than it was earlier in the war; and it was a hard target then. The question is whether it is worth it, or whether there are other, less well-defended, targets that the weapons would be better used at. Other logistical chokepoints, as an example.

    Also remember it is two bridges: the road and rail bridge. Getting both down at the same time is difficult.

    But it has become so totemic, that putting the bridge(s) out of action might be worth it purely from a PR point of view. Or say you're going to hit it, to make the Russians concentrate defensive assets there, so it is easier to strike elsewhere...

    Incidentally, last week someone claimed that the Russians are not using the road bridge for heavy military traffic (they are using the rail bridge). *If* true, my guess is that the road bridge's repairs have left it with a hefty weight limit.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895
    nico679 said:

    The biggest surprise over the last year has been how well the pro independence polling has held up inspite of all the SNP drama.

    There appears to be a very deep-seated "if anything is wrong, its the fault of the union" mentality. Which sustains regardless of evidence or sanity.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627
    Leon said:

    Do people understand how good written/literary AI is now? I just asked Claude 3 Opus this question. Its a new conversation so its memory starts entirely blank

    “Good morning Claude I hope you’re good. I’m a writer called Leon and I’m doing a travel piece in Brittany. Right now I’m off to the Crozon peninsula. What should I do there?”

    2 seconds later:



    “Good morning Leon! The Crozon peninsula in Brittany is a beautiful area with plenty of things to see and do. Here are some suggestions for your travel piece:

    Visit the stunning beaches: The peninsula is known for its beautiful beaches, such as Morgat, Île Vierge, and La Palue. These offer great opportunities for swimming, sunbathing, and water sports.

    Explore the cliffs and coves: The rugged coastline is dotted with impressive cliffs and hidden coves. Some notable spots include Cap de la Chèvre, Pointe de Dinan, and Pointe de Penhir.

    Hike the coastal paths: The GR34 hiking trail, also known as the "Sentier des Douaniers," runs along the coast and offers breathtaking views of the sea and the surrounding landscapes.

    Discover the medieval town of Camaret-sur-Mer: This charming port town features a 17th-century fortified tower, Vauban's Tower, which is a UNESCO World Heritage site. The town also has a lovely harbor and several good restaurants.

    Visit the Crozon Prehistoric Museum: This museum showcases the region's rich archaeological heritage, with exhibits on prehistoric tools, jewelry, and megalithic monuments.

    Explore the Crozon Caves: The peninsula is home to several impressive sea caves, such as the Grotte de l'Autel and the Grotte du Korriganm, which can be visited by boat.

    Sample the local cuisine: Brittany is famous for its seafood, so be sure to try some local specialties like oysters, mussels, and the famous "kouign amann" pastry.

    These are just a few ideas to get you started. The Crozon peninsula has a lot to offer, and you're sure to find plenty of inspiration for your travel piece!”

    I mean, wow. That’s crisp clever and creditably well informed. That’s pro guide book level writing - bespoke for you — produced to order in 2 seconds.

    Like I said. It's Travel hacks that need to worry.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044

    Good morning

    Scotland politics is in chaos and who can say where this will go but Yousaf time as first minister must be over

    On Rwanda seems the bill has resulted in unexpected consequences with Ireland experiencing asylum seekers in the UK travelling to Northern Ireland and crossing into Ireland and of course the EU

    This is the so called deterrent effect actually happening and a real issue for Irish politicians and others

    https://news.sky.com/story/rwanda-bill-causing-migrants-to-opt-for-ireland-deputy-pm-says-13123078

    Asylum seekers were already going to Ireland. A couple of Irish politicians trying to cast blame on the UK is not evidence that the numbers are a result of the Rwanda policy. Let’s see a proper data analysis.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027

    nico679 said:

    The biggest surprise over the last year has been how well the pro independence polling has held up inspite of all the SNP drama.

    There appears to be a very deep-seated "if anything is wrong, its the fault of the union" mentality. Which sustains regardless of evidence or sanity.
    It was ever thus
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,620
    @Leon

    You're talking about AI, again.

    Desist before you start spamming PB again.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,233

    @Leon

    You're talking about AI, again.

    Desist before you start spamming PB again.

    Aye aye
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,233

    @Leon

    You're talking about AI, again.

    Desist before you start spamming PB again.

    I just thought @foxy might like to see it, as it is evidence I will indeed lose my job. He takes delight in this idea
This discussion has been closed.