As Rishi seeks to address Britain's post-Covid sick note (now renamed fit note something something 1984) culture, his government proposes to extend state control of people's, or children's, lives with bans on smoking, smacking and smartphones. Not exactly small state, however meritorious those measures.
There is the possibility that rise in long term sick is gunuine, rather than skiving. It seems specific to Britain, as a similar phenomenon doesn't seem to be true elsewhere but isn't impossible.
Possibly a consequence of intractable economic and social problems (housing, work etc); in combination with 'disability' being the one residual safety net.
There may well be abuse of the system, on the other hand post COVID, there may be minimal abuse.
Sunak clearly doesn't understand or like poor people. I am reminded of his teenage interview where he implied he hadn't really met any "working class" people.
In the early days of his premiership Sunak came across as "decent" after the excesses of Johnson and Truss. These days he comes across as vain, entitled, petty and nasty.
His scorn isn't merely for scroungers. Each week one can tell in his voice the utter contempt he has for working class social-climber made good, Starmer. Same goes for Rayner, a peasant in Rishi's world who clearly doesn't know her place.
Sunak clearly despises the jeering mob opposite, then again he must detest a good bunch of the oiks behind him.
Two reasonably foreseeable problems with Sunak.
First is that he's our first truly meritocratic Prime Minister (in the bad sense). Even Maggie had a bit of understanding of the duty of the rich to do reasonably by the poor. Methodism will do that to a gal.
Second is the unimaginability of the size of Sunak's pile of dosh. Even people who are very well off (normal bankers, say) are poor compared to the Sunaks. Goodness only knows what he makes of people making a living on a normal public sector professional salary. Probably thinks it serves them right for not doing maths and going to work for a hedge fund.
Sunak cannot help where he is from. What he can help is his complete lack of curiosity about the lives most people in the UK lead. It is extraordinary how isolated from the real world he is.
As Rishi seeks to address Britain's post-Covid sick note (now renamed fit note something something 1984) culture, his government proposes to extend state control of people's, or children's, lives with bans on smoking, smacking and smartphones. Not exactly small state, however meritorious those measures.
If you were going to do a comedy musical about the last fourteen years of Conservative government, what better ending could you hope for than the prime minister giving a big speech out of nowhere, to tell everyone that they’re not really depressed?
There will always be abusers of any system where "free" money is available. Sunak is not targeting this chap, "it's the lot of them, they're all as bad as each other, when I'm short of a bob or two, I don't rely on the state, I ask my wife for a sub ".
I’m not sure he is going to do anything, only be seen to, and his speech was quite benign. I suspect this is just cheap electioneering. Nothing more nothing less.
"Othering" poor people simply for a vote is despicable. If that is the case, and I hope you are wrong, it is far from benign.
He said it will only come in if they win the election. They won’t. It’s desperation.
As Rishi seeks to address Britain's post-Covid sick note (now renamed fit note something something 1984) culture, his government proposes to extend state control of people's, or children's, lives with bans on smoking, smacking and smartphones. Not exactly small state, however meritorious those measures.
If you were going to do a comedy musical about the last fourteen years of Conservative government, what better ending could you hope for than the prime minister giving a big speech out of nowhere, to tell everyone that they’re not really depressed?
You need to have sleep apnea. You need a diagnosis of same. You need DWP to then grant you the benefits on that basis.
Has anyone tried claiming that and actually had it paid to them?
Given the people who are disabled and have their applications refused I would be extremely surprised if anyone ever received a penny for sleep apnea - not least because it can be treated with CPAP.
But, of course, a tiktoker said it, so it must be true.
Yet people are happy to take the word of people on twitter hitting on the govt over this somewhat benign announcement, once you look at what was said.
After all is that any more or less facile than the terminally unfunny John Crace wilfully misrepresenting, ‘ Now I see it and I'm really sorry. By having a heart attack I have let my country down. More importantly, I have let Rishi Sunak down’.
Nothing will happen. Nothing will change. It’s just froth for the election.
Replacing real doctors with contractors without qualifications is benign?
It is not only Doctors at the moment who can issue these. The scope was widened a few years back to add nurses and pharmacists. So Doctors do not issue these already and he is talking about unspecified healthcare professionals not some random guy off the street with a CSE grade 1 in woodwork.
He has also said this will be brought in if they win the election. It’s just desperation.
In other words, the Tories have already diluted that side of the balance to suit themselves. You see?
*And* the persons doing the judging are no longer to be independent. So if I were in the position of needing an allowance I can't go to my doctor but am forced to accept some inferior contractor who does what his employers want and *by definition* won't particularly have a full understanding of my condition(s). The well-known abuses of this type of procedure are too common already.
As Rishi seeks to address Britain's post-Covid sick note (now renamed fit note something something 1984) culture, his government proposes to extend state control of people's, or children's, lives with bans on smoking, smacking and smartphones. Not exactly small state, however meritorious those measures.
If you were going to do a comedy musical about the last fourteen years of Conservative government, what better ending could you hope for than the prime minister giving a big speech out of nowhere, to tell everyone that they’re not really depressed?
There will always be abusers of any system where "free" money is available. Sunak is not targeting this chap, "it's the lot of them, they're all as bad as each other, when I'm short of a bob or two, I don't rely on the state, I ask my wife for a sub ".
The guy in the video doesn't even say that he claims this money. He just says to trust him, that it's "factual", that you can phone the DWP (with your sleep apnea diagnosis from a doctor, lol) and then they will pay it. Good luck with that.
The video is fraudulent.
People need to be a bit more critical of the bollocks they read and watch online.
Does anyone have some actual numbers on the fraud rates for various benefits?
Does anyone have some actual data on the breakdown of the conditions for which people are off sick?
The government published number for welfare fraud is 2.7% - though this is of course an estimate, based on the level of fraud they've detected and then some assumptions.
Raynergate might not be cutting through, but I am sensing restlessness in the remainer camp. There is a tacit contract that rejoiners (who are 60% of the electorate) will vote tory with the prospect of initiating a long term process towards SM an eventually rejoining. But Starmer basically might as well be Farage with good PR when it comes to the EU. If the GE comes and goes and the mask doesn't drop on the EU there will be FURY. My guess is that this very fluid and illoyal electorate will find new pastures. Just to illustrate yougov found that only 12% strongly oppose SM.
Omnisis/WeThink10-11.4.24Rejoin/Stay Out62/38
Brexiteerism is a dying movement married to the declining boomer segment. Rejoin enjoud huge majorities in the under 60 year olds. Labour is making a huge error if it remains so rigid on the eu. Everybody i talk to is betting that this brexit kabuki theater from labour is just electoral strategy and will fall away.... it better or labour support will drop like a rock in government.
I don't think it's quite as simple as that, but it does point to a significant, just possible very large opportunity for the LibDems in the next Parliament.
Rejoin is not on the table this GE in England, even though both LDs and Greens have it as a longer term goal.
A large part of Rejoinism is because of Brexits strong association with this failing government. The two are conjoined twins. What happens next parliament is unclear. Will that transfer to Starmers Brexit? Or will it become a separate political cause?
After another 4 years we may have sufficient groundswell to rejoin the SM, while negotiating full Rejoin. Voters cannot be ignored forever.
25% is incredibly high to be following Raynergate closely - I'm a politics nerd and I can't be bothered with it.
It makes me wonder how many people would say were following the scandal about Khan’s sex parties (which, for the avoidance of doubt and to the best of my knowledge, don’t exist).
A surprising number of people just don’t want to admit ignorance.
Raynergate might not be cutting through, but I am sensing restlessness in the remainer camp. There is a tacit contract that rejoiners (who are 60% of the electorate) will vote tory with the prospect of initiating a long term process towards SM an eventually rejoining. But Starmer basically might as well be Farage with good PR when it comes to the EU. If the GE comes and goes and the mask doesn't drop on the EU there will be FURY. My guess is that this very fluid and illoyal electorate will find new pastures. Just to illustrate yougov found that only 12% strongly oppose SM.
Omnisis/WeThink10-11.4.24Rejoin/Stay Out62/38
Brexiteerism is a dying movement married to the declining boomer segment. Rejoin enjoud huge majorities in the under 60 year olds. Labour is making a huge error if it remains so rigid on the eu. Everybody i talk to is betting that this brexit kabuki theater from labour is just electoral strategy and will fall away.... it better or labour support will drop like a rock in government.
I think this is a very important point. I find it hard to believe that the Labour leadership does not understand the depth of anti-Brexit feeling inside the party generally and that this is largely being kept in check by the prospect of power. Should we get a Labour government on the other side of a general election, there will be immense - I think irresistible - pressure to secure a closer relationship with the EU. If Starmer and co seek to hold back the dam, they are going to get overwhelmed. This is so clearly obvious to anyone close to or inside the Labour party that I cannot believe the leadership is unaware. But if it is, it is going to be in for a very big surprise.
The long game aspects of this are interesting though.
It’s probably in rejoin’s interests for politicians to be seen to be dragged kicking and screaming by the electorate to something they are nervous about doing.
I think, sadly, that Starmer’s public position on Brexit is real and he really doesn’t want to reopen the wound. But if Labour got too pushy on rejoin they could bring the cause down with their own popularity when the inevitable fall in polls happened.
As Rishi seeks to address Britain's post-Covid sick note (now renamed fit note something something 1984) culture, his government proposes to extend state control of people's, or children's, lives with bans on smoking, smacking and smartphones. Not exactly small state, however meritorious those measures.
If you were going to do a comedy musical about the last fourteen years of Conservative government, what better ending could you hope for than the prime minister giving a big speech out of nowhere, to tell everyone that they’re not really depressed?
There will always be abusers of any system where "free" money is available. Sunak is not targeting this chap, "it's the lot of them, they're all as bad as each other, when I'm short of a bob or two, I don't rely on the state, I ask my wife for a sub ".
I’m not sure he is going to do anything, only be seen to, and his speech was quite benign. I suspect this is just cheap electioneering. Nothing more nothing less.
"Othering" poor people simply for a vote is despicable. If that is the case, and I hope you are wrong, it is far from benign.
He said it will only come in if they win the election. They won’t. It’s desperation.
Lets take your perspective that the speech was "quite benign". For you, perhaps. But for all of the people this attacked? Benign isn't the word. You're right that he won't get to implement this war on the disabled. But his party *will* in opposition. The right wing media *will* and has done for a long time.
I'm afraid this one is a simple question of right and wrong. And - shock horror - the Tories support wrong. Believe in wrong. Are Morally Wrong.
As Rishi seeks to address Britain's post-Covid sick note (now renamed fit note something something 1984) culture, his government proposes to extend state control of people's, or children's, lives with bans on smoking, smacking and smartphones. Not exactly small state, however meritorious those measures.
If you were going to do a comedy musical about the last fourteen years of Conservative government, what better ending could you hope for than the prime minister giving a big speech out of nowhere, to tell everyone that they’re not really depressed?
There will always be abusers of any system where "free" money is available. Sunak is not targeting this chap, "it's the lot of them, they're all as bad as each other, when I'm short of a bob or two, I don't rely on the state, I ask my wife for a sub ".
The guy in the video doesn't even say that he claims this money. He just says to trust him, that it's "factual", that you can phone the DWP (with your sleep apnea diagnosis from a doctor, lol) and then they will pay it. Good luck with that.
The video is fraudulent.
People need to be a bit more critical of the bollocks they read and watch online.
Does anyone have some actual numbers on the fraud rates for various benefits?
Does anyone have some actual data on the breakdown of the conditions for which people are off sick?
The government published number for welfare fraud is 2.7% - though this is of course an estimate, based on the level of fraud they've detected and then some assumptions.
As Rishi seeks to address Britain's post-Covid sick note (now renamed fit note something something 1984) culture, his government proposes to extend state control of people's, or children's, lives with bans on smoking, smacking and smartphones. Not exactly small state, however meritorious those measures.
If you were going to do a comedy musical about the last fourteen years of Conservative government, what better ending could you hope for than the prime minister giving a big speech out of nowhere, to tell everyone that they’re not really depressed?
There will always be abusers of any system where "free" money is available. Sunak is not targeting this chap, "it's the lot of them, they're all as bad as each other, when I'm short of a bob or two, I don't rely on the state, I ask my wife for a sub ".
The guy in the video doesn't even say that he claims this money. He just says to trust him, that it's "factual", that you can phone the DWP (with your sleep apnea diagnosis from a doctor, lol) and then they will pay it. Good luck with that.
The video is fraudulent.
People need to be a bit more critical of the bollocks they read and watch online.
Does anyone have some actual numbers on the fraud rates for various benefits?
Does anyone have some actual data on the breakdown of the conditions for which people are off sick?
The government published number for welfare fraud is 2.7% - though this is of course an estimate, based on the level of fraud they've detected and then some assumptions.
I'm sure they have some numbers on what people are claiming the benefits for. UK government data releases are quite good overall.
What is the MP rate for fraud for comparison?
Quite so. And when I read this sort of stuff from HMG and its cheerleaders, I think about what the PO assumed the fraud rate was ... and the frauds it itself evidently committed.
Shouldn't we also define as fraud, the deliberate refusal of benefits through a hostile system, and the demonisation of 'scroungers', such that many other people are too frightened or too confused about their rights?
It is hard to follow Raynergate, especially since James Daly for the Conservatives refused to say just what she was accused of. (Snip)
Have Labour mentioned exactly what they think Menzies did, since they reported him to the police?
Quite frankly it's none of Labour's business. It looks really, really bad on them after they have quite rightly bellyached about James Daly. Shame on them.
Mind you, one would have thought the Fylde branch of the Conservative Party would be pretty enraged by Mr Menzies's behaviour in relation to the misuse of Party funds.
If Daly hadn’t have gone after Rayner then I doubt they would have reported Menzies . It’s all gearing upto be a very ugly election campaign .
I'm reasonably sure the Menzies story would have resulted in a police investigation even without Labour's intervention.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68851004 ..The BBC did not initially name Ms Fieldhouse but she has now agreed to be named and speak publicly for the first time. Ms Fieldhouse told the BBC she raised her concerns with the Conservative Chief Whip Simon Hart after discussing money with Mr Menzies again. Although the Conservative Party started an investigation, Ms Fieldhouse said she was left "appalled" by the inaction. The Times reported that the scandal was reported to the Mr Hart back in January. Since her report "nothing happened" Ms Fieldhouse said. "I put my faith completely in the party," but the "party has let me down," she told the BBC. She said: "I am not having this brushed under the carpet...
Surely on the "bad people shakedown" he is most likely a victim. It is serious and does need police investigation though.
On the electoral expenses is that not the electoral commission rather than police? I am not a fan of multiple agencies investigating the same thing rather than leaving it to the one most suitable.
As Rishi seeks to address Britain's post-Covid sick note (now renamed fit note something something 1984) culture, his government proposes to extend state control of people's, or children's, lives with bans on smoking, smacking and smartphones. Not exactly small state, however meritorious those measures.
If you were going to do a comedy musical about the last fourteen years of Conservative government, what better ending could you hope for than the prime minister giving a big speech out of nowhere, to tell everyone that they’re not really depressed?
There will always be abusers of any system where "free" money is available. Sunak is not targeting this chap, "it's the lot of them, they're all as bad as each other, when I'm short of a bob or two, I don't rely on the state, I ask my wife for a sub ".
I’m not sure he is going to do anything, only be seen to, and his speech was quite benign. I suspect this is just cheap electioneering. Nothing more nothing less.
The only reason it can be viewed as 'benign' is that he'll likely never get the chance to turn the vibes into policy which is then legislated.
Given another term in government, I think it might have been a pretty radical change.
No, it wouldn’t.
A sane approach would go something like this
1) is there actually a disparity between the U.K. and equivalent countries? Or is it a measuring thing? As in, they sling their sick-unable-to-work in a different category 2) at the same time, look at the actual breakdown of SUW. Over time - historical data will be interesting here. For example what did CoVID actually *change*? 3) look at the estimates of fraud levels. The DWP must have something on this. Then again, they are fairly useless.
From 1-3 find out what is actually happening. Then devise a structured plan to deal with it. Then consider the secondary consequences of the changes you propose. And tertiary. Modify your proposals accordingly.
As Rishi seeks to address Britain's post-Covid sick note (now renamed fit note something something 1984) culture, his government proposes to extend state control of people's, or children's, lives with bans on smoking, smacking and smartphones. Not exactly small state, however meritorious those measures.
If you were going to do a comedy musical about the last fourteen years of Conservative government, what better ending could you hope for than the prime minister giving a big speech out of nowhere, to tell everyone that they’re not really depressed?
There will always be abusers of any system where "free" money is available. Sunak is not targeting this chap, "it's the lot of them, they're all as bad as each other, when I'm short of a bob or two, I don't rely on the state, I ask my wife for a sub ".
The guy in the video doesn't even say that he claims this money. He just says to trust him, that it's "factual", that you can phone the DWP (with your sleep apnea diagnosis from a doctor, lol) and then they will pay it. Good luck with that.
The video is fraudulent.
People need to be a bit more critical of the bollocks they read and watch online.
Does anyone have some actual numbers on the fraud rates for various benefits?
Does anyone have some actual data on the breakdown of the conditions for which people are off sick?
The government published number for welfare fraud is 2.7% - though this is of course an estimate, based on the level of fraud they've detected and then some assumptions.
I'm sure they have some numbers on what people are claiming the benefits for. UK government data releases are quite good overall.
Here are some PIP statistics. 47% of claims are refused. I don't think phoning up and asking for a payment due to snoring is going to get you very far.
The five most commonly recorded disabling conditions for claims under normal rules are:
Psychiatric disorder (38% of claims) Musculoskeletal disease (general) (20% of claims) Neurological disease (12% of claims) Musculoskeletal disease (regional) (12% of claims) Respiratory disease (4% of claims)
You can see why that 38% of claims for to a psychiatric disorder would be tempting to deal with, but Sunak's stated approach is simply playing to the gallery rather than any useful attempt to engage with the issue.
Raynergate might not be cutting through, but I am sensing restlessness in the remainer camp. There is a tacit contract that rejoiners (who are 60% of the electorate) will vote tory with the prospect of initiating a long term process towards SM an eventually rejoining. But Starmer basically might as well be Farage with good PR when it comes to the EU. If the GE comes and goes and the mask doesn't drop on the EU there will be FURY. My guess is that this very fluid and illoyal electorate will find new pastures. Just to illustrate yougov found that only 12% strongly oppose SM.
Omnisis/WeThink10-11.4.24Rejoin/Stay Out62/38
Brexiteerism is a dying movement married to the declining boomer segment. Rejoin enjoud huge majorities in the under 60 year olds. Labour is making a huge error if it remains so rigid on the eu. Everybody i talk to is betting that this brexit kabuki theater from labour is just electoral strategy and will fall away.... it better or labour support will drop like a rock in government.
I think this is a very important point. I find it hard to believe that the Labour leadership does not understand the depth of anti-Brexit feeling inside the party generally and that this is largely being kept in check by the prospect of power. Should we get a Labour government on the other side of a general election, there will be immense - I think irresistible - pressure to secure a closer relationship with the EU. If Starmer and co seek to hold back the dam, they are going to get overwhelmed. This is so clearly obvious to anyone close to or inside the Labour party that I cannot believe the leadership is unaware. But if it is, it is going to be in for a very big surprise.
The long game aspects of this are interesting though.
It’s probably in rejoin’s interests for politicians to be seen to be dragged kicking and screaming by the electorate to something they are nervous about doing.
I think, sadly, that Starmer’s public position on Brexit is real and he really doesn’t want to reopen the wound. But if Labour got too pushy on rejoin they could bring the cause down with their own popularity when the inevitable fall in polls happened.
Or perhaps a renewed Tory party could use rejoin as their path back from oblivion? It could be their Clause 4 moment.
I can’t help wondering if it has crossed Sunak’s mind that sick note Britain is not entirely unconnected with the deterioration of the NHS. With several million on waiting lists, unable to live their normal lives, often in pain or with restricted mobility, absent from the structure and socialisation of work, is it really surprising that so many conditions become more complicated and chronic?
The failure of the NHS is a particular UK problem and the obvious place to start when looking for an explanation to this phenomenon.
As Rishi seeks to address Britain's post-Covid sick note (now renamed fit note something something 1984) culture, his government proposes to extend state control of people's, or children's, lives with bans on smoking, smacking and smartphones. Not exactly small state, however meritorious those measures.
If you were going to do a comedy musical about the last fourteen years of Conservative government, what better ending could you hope for than the prime minister giving a big speech out of nowhere, to tell everyone that they’re not really depressed?
There will always be abusers of any system where "free" money is available. Sunak is not targeting this chap, "it's the lot of them, they're all as bad as each other, when I'm short of a bob or two, I don't rely on the state, I ask my wife for a sub ".
The guy in the video doesn't even say that he claims this money. He just says to trust him, that it's "factual", that you can phone the DWP (with your sleep apnea diagnosis from a doctor, lol) and then they will pay it. Good luck with that.
The video is fraudulent.
People need to be a bit more critical of the bollocks they read and watch online.
Does anyone have some actual numbers on the fraud rates for various benefits?
Does anyone have some actual data on the breakdown of the conditions for which people are off sick?
The government published number for welfare fraud is 2.7% - though this is of course an estimate, based on the level of fraud they've detected and then some assumptions.
As Rishi seeks to address Britain's post-Covid sick note (now renamed fit note something something 1984) culture, his government proposes to extend state control of people's, or children's, lives with bans on smoking, smacking and smartphones. Not exactly small state, however meritorious those measures.
If you were going to do a comedy musical about the last fourteen years of Conservative government, what better ending could you hope for than the prime minister giving a big speech out of nowhere, to tell everyone that they’re not really depressed?
There will always be abusers of any system where "free" money is available. Sunak is not targeting this chap, "it's the lot of them, they're all as bad as each other, when I'm short of a bob or two, I don't rely on the state, I ask my wife for a sub ".
I’m not sure he is going to do anything, only be seen to, and his speech was quite benign. I suspect this is just cheap electioneering. Nothing more nothing less.
"Othering" poor people simply for a vote is despicable. If that is the case, and I hope you are wrong, it is far from benign.
He said it will only come in if they win the election. They won’t. It’s desperation.
Lets take your perspective that the speech was "quite benign". For you, perhaps. But for all of the people this attacked? Benign isn't the word. You're right that he won't get to implement this war on the disabled. But his party *will* in opposition. The right wing media *will* and has done for a long time.
I'm afraid this one is a simple question of right and wrong. And - shock horror - the Tories support wrong. Believe in wrong. Are Morally Wrong.
The speech just sounded like clickbait politics to me. Slagging off the undeserving poor, but without any concrete proposals to stamp out these supposed skivers.
The essence of the vacuum at the heart of Sunakism.
As Rishi seeks to address Britain's post-Covid sick note (now renamed fit note something something 1984) culture, his government proposes to extend state control of people's, or children's, lives with bans on smoking, smacking and smartphones. Not exactly small state, however meritorious those measures.
If you were going to do a comedy musical about the last fourteen years of Conservative government, what better ending could you hope for than the prime minister giving a big speech out of nowhere, to tell everyone that they’re not really depressed?
You need to have sleep apnea. You need a diagnosis of same. You need DWP to then grant you the benefits on that basis.
Has anyone tried claiming that and actually had it paid to them?
Given the people who are disabled and have their applications refused I would be extremely surprised if anyone ever received a penny for sleep apnea - not least because it can be treated with CPAP.
But, of course, a tiktoker said it, so it must be true.
Yet people are happy to take the word of people on twitter hitting on the govt over this somewhat benign announcement, once you look at what was said.
Nothing will happen. Nothing will change. It’s just froth for the election.
That doesn't give you a pass for spreading complete nonsense. It's embarrassing. Your should be embarrassed.
Have you no self-respect?
It's this sort of crap that helps politicians like get away with rubbish like pretending the state finances can be fixed by cutting down on welfare fraud.
I’d be embarrassed to be a paid scribe to write shit like this.
“Now I see it and I'm really sorry. By having a heart attack I have let my country down. More importantly, I have let Rishi Sunak down”
John Crace is a satirist. That is satire. You are being stupid.
As Rishi seeks to address Britain's post-Covid sick note (now renamed fit note something something 1984) culture, his government proposes to extend state control of people's, or children's, lives with bans on smoking, smacking and smartphones. Not exactly small state, however meritorious those measures.
If you were going to do a comedy musical about the last fourteen years of Conservative government, what better ending could you hope for than the prime minister giving a big speech out of nowhere, to tell everyone that they’re not really depressed?
There will always be abusers of any system where "free" money is available. Sunak is not targeting this chap, "it's the lot of them, they're all as bad as each other, when I'm short of a bob or two, I don't rely on the state, I ask my wife for a sub ".
I’m not sure he is going to do anything, only be seen to, and his speech was quite benign. I suspect this is just cheap electioneering. Nothing more nothing less.
The only reason it can be viewed as 'benign' is that he'll likely never get the chance to turn the vibes into policy which is then legislated.
Given another term in government, I think it might have been a pretty radical change.
No, it wouldn’t.
A sane approach would go something like this
1) is there actually a disparity between the U.K. and equivalent countries? Or is it a measuring thing? As in, they sling their sick-unable-to-work in a different category 2) at the same time, look at the actual breakdown of SUW. Over time - historical data will be interesting here. For example what did CoVID actually *change*? 3) look at the estimates of fraud levels. The DWP must have something on this. Then again, they are fairly useless.
From 1-3 find out what is actually happening. Then devise a structured plan to deal with it. Then consider the secondary consequences of the changes you propose. And tertiary. Modify your proposals accordingly.
That might actually do something no harmful.
If we want to reduce time off sick, start with food and exercise at school and make healthier eating and activity a key part of our culture. It will actually work and make people happier too.
I can’t help wondering if it has crossed Sunak’s mind that sick note Britain is not entirely unconnected with the deterioration of the NHS. With several million on waiting lists, unable to live their normal lives, often in pain or with restricted mobility, absence from the structure and socialisation of work, is it really surprising that so many conditions become more complicated and chronic?
The failure of the NHS is a particular UK problem and the obvious place to start when looking for an explanation to this phenomenon.
Well if he read pb during the NHS pay disputes he would have noticed that point being made umpteen times. The money "saved" in paying NHS staff is not money saved by the government when it ends up paying social security rather than receiving taxes because operations are not happening.
As Rishi seeks to address Britain's post-Covid sick note (now renamed fit note something something 1984) culture, his government proposes to extend state control of people's, or children's, lives with bans on smoking, smacking and smartphones. Not exactly small state, however meritorious those measures.
If you were going to do a comedy musical about the last fourteen years of Conservative government, what better ending could you hope for than the prime minister giving a big speech out of nowhere, to tell everyone that they’re not really depressed?
There will always be abusers of any system where "free" money is available. Sunak is not targeting this chap, "it's the lot of them, they're all as bad as each other, when I'm short of a bob or two, I don't rely on the state, I ask my wife for a sub ".
The guy in the video doesn't even say that he claims this money. He just says to trust him, that it's "factual", that you can phone the DWP (with your sleep apnea diagnosis from a doctor, lol) and then they will pay it. Good luck with that.
The video is fraudulent.
People need to be a bit more critical of the bollocks they read and watch online.
Does anyone have some actual numbers on the fraud rates for various benefits?
Does anyone have some actual data on the breakdown of the conditions for which people are off sick?
The government published number for welfare fraud is 2.7% - though this is of course an estimate, based on the level of fraud they've detected and then some assumptions.
As Rishi seeks to address Britain's post-Covid sick note (now renamed fit note something something 1984) culture, his government proposes to extend state control of people's, or children's, lives with bans on smoking, smacking and smartphones. Not exactly small state, however meritorious those measures.
If you were going to do a comedy musical about the last fourteen years of Conservative government, what better ending could you hope for than the prime minister giving a big speech out of nowhere, to tell everyone that they’re not really depressed?
There will always be abusers of any system where "free" money is available. Sunak is not targeting this chap, "it's the lot of them, they're all as bad as each other, when I'm short of a bob or two, I don't rely on the state, I ask my wife for a sub ".
I’m not sure he is going to do anything, only be seen to, and his speech was quite benign. I suspect this is just cheap electioneering. Nothing more nothing less.
"Othering" poor people simply for a vote is despicable. If that is the case, and I hope you are wrong, it is far from benign.
He said it will only come in if they win the election. They won’t. It’s desperation.
Lets take your perspective that the speech was "quite benign". For you, perhaps. But for all of the people this attacked? Benign isn't the word. You're right that he won't get to implement this war on the disabled. But his party *will* in opposition. The right wing media *will* and has done for a long time.
I'm afraid this one is a simple question of right and wrong. And - shock horror - the Tories support wrong. Believe in wrong. Are Morally Wrong.
They will be too busy taking lumps out of each other. The influence of the media, right wing or otherwise, is in terminal decline.
The Tory Party will have a long and hard road back to even a glimpse of power and it’s policy platform in 2024 will be irrelevant by the time of the next election.
As Rishi seeks to address Britain's post-Covid sick note (now renamed fit note something something 1984) culture, his government proposes to extend state control of people's, or children's, lives with bans on smoking, smacking and smartphones. Not exactly small state, however meritorious those measures.
If you were going to do a comedy musical about the last fourteen years of Conservative government, what better ending could you hope for than the prime minister giving a big speech out of nowhere, to tell everyone that they’re not really depressed?
There will always be abusers of any system where "free" money is available. Sunak is not targeting this chap, "it's the lot of them, they're all as bad as each other, when I'm short of a bob or two, I don't rely on the state, I ask my wife for a sub ".
The guy in the video doesn't even say that he claims this money. He just says to trust him, that it's "factual", that you can phone the DWP (with your sleep apnea diagnosis from a doctor, lol) and then they will pay it. Good luck with that.
The video is fraudulent.
People need to be a bit more critical of the bollocks they read and watch online.
Does anyone have some actual numbers on the fraud rates for various benefits?
Does anyone have some actual data on the breakdown of the conditions for which people are off sick?
The government published number for welfare fraud is 2.7% - though this is of course an estimate, based on the level of fraud they've detected and then some assumptions.
I can’t help wondering if it has crossed Sunak’s mind that sick note Britain is not entirely unconnected with the deterioration of the NHS. With several million on waiting lists, unable to live their normal lives, often in pain or with restricted mobility, absence from the structure and socialisation of work, is it really surprising that so many conditions become more complicated and chronic?
The failure of the NHS is a particular UK problem and the obvious place to start when looking for an explanation to this phenomenon.
Well if he read pb during the NHS pay disputes he would have noticed that point being made umpteen times. The money "saved" in paying NHS staff is not money saved by the government when it ends up paying social security rather than receiving taxes because operations are not happening.
Raynergate might not be cutting through, but I am sensing restlessness in the remainer camp. There is a tacit contract that rejoiners (who are 60% of the electorate) will vote tory with the prospect of initiating a long term process towards SM an eventually rejoining. But Starmer basically might as well be Farage with good PR when it comes to the EU. If the GE comes and goes and the mask doesn't drop on the EU there will be FURY. My guess is that this very fluid and illoyal electorate will find new pastures. Just to illustrate yougov found that only 12% strongly oppose SM.
Omnisis/WeThink10-11.4.24Rejoin/Stay Out62/38
Brexiteerism is a dying movement married to the declining boomer segment. Rejoin enjoud huge majorities in the under 60 year olds. Labour is making a huge error if it remains so rigid on the eu. Everybody i talk to is betting that this brexit kabuki theater from labour is just electoral strategy and will fall away.... it better or labour support will drop like a rock in government.
I think this is a very important point. I find it hard to believe that the Labour leadership does not understand the depth of anti-Brexit feeling inside the party generally and that this is largely being kept in check by the prospect of power. Should we get a Labour government on the other side of a general election, there will be immense - I think irresistible - pressure to secure a closer relationship with the EU. If Starmer and co seek to hold back the dam, they are going to get overwhelmed. This is so clearly obvious to anyone close to or inside the Labour party that I cannot believe the leadership is unaware. But if it is, it is going to be in for a very big surprise.
The long game aspects of this are interesting though.
It’s probably in rejoin’s interests for politicians to be seen to be dragged kicking and screaming by the electorate to something they are nervous about doing.
I think, sadly, that Starmer’s public position on Brexit is real and he really doesn’t want to reopen the wound. But if Labour got too pushy on rejoin they could bring the cause down with their own popularity when the inevitable fall in polls happened.
The other thing is the generational dynamics. There is a generation- the same generation- who weren't keen on the EEC in '75 and we're keen on Brexit in '16. And young people aren't becoming more Eurosceptic as they age;
For those who think the issue of Brexit will go away, the frontier of age/Brexit preferences is steadily shifting in a pro-EU direction - and is likely to continue to do so as a result of population replacement. Data via BESResearch
This isn't about whether they should, who is objectively right and wrong on the merits of Brexit. It's about the vibes, and vibes win. Older people are nostalgic for their youth apart from the EEC, younger people are nostalgic for their youth inside.
If I'm right, Starmer has to keep away from the wound for the duration of his Premiership. Unpick the worst damage without changing anything drastic. Prepare the path for his successor to make bigger moves.
(Yes it is the "telling the mad old relative that we wouldn't dream of getting rid of their ghastly heirloom because they'll only kick off" theory of Brexit politics.)
I can’t help wondering if it has crossed Sunak’s mind that sick note Britain is not entirely unconnected with the deterioration of the NHS. With several million on waiting lists, unable to live their normal lives, often in pain or with restricted mobility, absent from the structure and socialisation of work, is it really surprising that so many conditions become more complicated and chronic?
The failure of the NHS is a particular UK problem and the obvious place to start when looking for an explanation to this phenomenon.
Absolutely. In particular the collapse of mental health care in both primary and secondary care, often compounding physical disease.
Other countries manage these differently, for example with structural unemployment, but we have for decades been shifting the unemployed to long term disability benefits. This may well just entrench the difficulty to change.
Raynergate might not be cutting through, but I am sensing restlessness in the remainer camp. There is a tacit contract that rejoiners (who are 60% of the electorate) will vote tory with the prospect of initiating a long term process towards SM an eventually rejoining. But Starmer basically might as well be Farage with good PR when it comes to the EU. If the GE comes and goes and the mask doesn't drop on the EU there will be FURY. My guess is that this very fluid and illoyal electorate will find new pastures. Just to illustrate yougov found that only 12% strongly oppose SM.
Omnisis/WeThink10-11.4.24Rejoin/Stay Out62/38
Brexiteerism is a dying movement married to the declining boomer segment. Rejoin enjoud huge majorities in the under 60 year olds. Labour is making a huge error if it remains so rigid on the eu. Everybody i talk to is betting that this brexit kabuki theater from labour is just electoral strategy and will fall away.... it better or labour support will drop like a rock in government.
I think this is a very important point. I find it hard to believe that the Labour leadership does not understand the depth of anti-Brexit feeling inside the party generally and that this is largely being kept in check by the prospect of power. Should we get a Labour government on the other side of a general election, there will be immense - I think irresistible - pressure to secure a closer relationship with the EU. If Starmer and co seek to hold back the dam, they are going to get overwhelmed. This is so clearly obvious to anyone close to or inside the Labour party that I cannot believe the leadership is unaware. But if it is, it is going to be in for a very big surprise.
The long game aspects of this are interesting though.
It’s probably in rejoin’s interests for politicians to be seen to be dragged kicking and screaming by the electorate to something they are nervous about doing.
I think, sadly, that Starmer’s public position on Brexit is real and he really doesn’t want to reopen the wound. But if Labour got too pushy on rejoin they could bring the cause down with their own popularity when the inevitable fall in polls happened.
I don't think rejoin is on the cards under Labour and I don't think members or MPs would expect that. But they will expect visibly closer ties. For example, a youth mobility deal now that the EU has suggested one. The idea that it is back door free movement is laughable. If we have these deals with Uruguay and Australia, why not the EU?
As Rishi seeks to address Britain's post-Covid sick note (now renamed fit note something something 1984) culture, his government proposes to extend state control of people's, or children's, lives with bans on smoking, smacking and smartphones. Not exactly small state, however meritorious those measures.
If you were going to do a comedy musical about the last fourteen years of Conservative government, what better ending could you hope for than the prime minister giving a big speech out of nowhere, to tell everyone that they’re not really depressed?
There will always be abusers of any system where "free" money is available. Sunak is not targeting this chap, "it's the lot of them, they're all as bad as each other, when I'm short of a bob or two, I don't rely on the state, I ask my wife for a sub ".
The guy in the video doesn't even say that he claims this money. He just says to trust him, that it's "factual", that you can phone the DWP (with your sleep apnea diagnosis from a doctor, lol) and then they will pay it. Good luck with that.
The video is fraudulent.
People need to be a bit more critical of the bollocks they read and watch online.
Does anyone have some actual numbers on the fraud rates for various benefits?
Does anyone have some actual data on the breakdown of the conditions for which people are off sick?
The government published number for welfare fraud is 2.7% - though this is of course an estimate, based on the level of fraud they've detected and then some assumptions.
As Rishi seeks to address Britain's post-Covid sick note (now renamed fit note something something 1984) culture, his government proposes to extend state control of people's, or children's, lives with bans on smoking, smacking and smartphones. Not exactly small state, however meritorious those measures.
If you were going to do a comedy musical about the last fourteen years of Conservative government, what better ending could you hope for than the prime minister giving a big speech out of nowhere, to tell everyone that they’re not really depressed?
There will always be abusers of any system where "free" money is available. Sunak is not targeting this chap, "it's the lot of them, they're all as bad as each other, when I'm short of a bob or two, I don't rely on the state, I ask my wife for a sub ".
The guy in the video doesn't even say that he claims this money. He just says to trust him, that it's "factual", that you can phone the DWP (with your sleep apnea diagnosis from a doctor, lol) and then they will pay it. Good luck with that.
The video is fraudulent.
People need to be a bit more critical of the bollocks they read and watch online.
Does anyone have some actual numbers on the fraud rates for various benefits?
Does anyone have some actual data on the breakdown of the conditions for which people are off sick?
The government published number for welfare fraud is 2.7% - though this is of course an estimate, based on the level of fraud they've detected and then some assumptions.
As Rishi seeks to address Britain's post-Covid sick note (now renamed fit note something something 1984) culture, his government proposes to extend state control of people's, or children's, lives with bans on smoking, smacking and smartphones. Not exactly small state, however meritorious those measures.
If you were going to do a comedy musical about the last fourteen years of Conservative government, what better ending could you hope for than the prime minister giving a big speech out of nowhere, to tell everyone that they’re not really depressed?
There will always be abusers of any system where "free" money is available. Sunak is not targeting this chap, "it's the lot of them, they're all as bad as each other, when I'm short of a bob or two, I don't rely on the state, I ask my wife for a sub ".
The guy in the video doesn't even say that he claims this money. He just says to trust him, that it's "factual", that you can phone the DWP (with your sleep apnea diagnosis from a doctor, lol) and then they will pay it. Good luck with that.
The video is fraudulent.
People need to be a bit more critical of the bollocks they read and watch online.
Does anyone have some actual numbers on the fraud rates for various benefits?
Does anyone have some actual data on the breakdown of the conditions for which people are off sick?
The government published number for welfare fraud is 2.7% - though this is of course an estimate, based on the level of fraud they've detected and then some assumptions.
It is hard to follow Raynergate, especially since James Daly for the Conservatives refused to say just what she was accused of. (Snip)
Have Labour mentioned exactly what they think Menzies did, since they reported him to the police?
They don't have to. His former agent has already provided the details. And has been quoted extensively in the national media.
Or haven't you been "following closely" ?
Personally I know nothing about these cases and have barely been following them. But a wider point here is that it's very tempting as an MP to appoint your staff from longstanding friends and relatives, because it reduces the risk that you'll fall out with them and they'll then go to the media and report every embarrassing thing that ever happened to you (possibly plus some invented stuff). In theory MPs should be models of meritocracy and abhor croneyism, and advertise all positions with an open mind. But in practice...?
'The Conservatives have struggled in this area due to the toxicity of their brand among younger voters. One video featuring Rishi Sunak and the food influencers TopJaw was deleted within minutes after a slew of negative comments from their audience.
The prime minister had more success with a series of interviews with personal financial Instagram influencers in Downing Street around the time of the spring budget, where his announcements on free childcare and national insurance cuts landed better with an audience already looking for financial tips.
Labour’s policy on Israel’s invasion of Gaza has also been strongly criticised by many younger online audiences, creating a potential risk for any content creators who want to align themselves with Starmer’s party.
Yet there is one Rubicon that is yet to be crossed in UK political content: paying influencers to make content.'
As Rishi seeks to address Britain's post-Covid sick note (now renamed fit note something something 1984) culture, his government proposes to extend state control of people's, or children's, lives with bans on smoking, smacking and smartphones. Not exactly small state, however meritorious those measures.
There is the possibility that rise in long term sick is gunuine, rather than skiving. It seems specific to Britain, as a similar phenomenon doesn't seem to be true elsewhere but isn't impossible.
Possibly a consequence of intractable economic and social problems (housing, work etc); in combination with 'disability' being the one residual safety net.
shit diets will not be helping either, surely cannot be any other country that eats as much processed cheap junk, sugary drinks , etc.
As Rishi seeks to address Britain's post-Covid sick note (now renamed fit note something something 1984) culture, his government proposes to extend state control of people's, or children's, lives with bans on smoking, smacking and smartphones. Not exactly small state, however meritorious those measures.
There is the possibility that rise in long term sick is gunuine, rather than skiving. It seems specific to Britain, as a similar phenomenon doesn't seem to be true elsewhere but isn't impossible.
Possibly a consequence of intractable economic and social problems (housing, work etc); in combination with 'disability' being the one residual safety net.
shit diets will not be helping either, surely cannot be any other country that eats as much processed cheap junk, sugary drinks , etc.
Yeah, Scotland is an outlier when it comes to IrnBru and deep fried Mars Bars.
Admittedly, four months off by the utter Case probably improved the efficiency of the government.
I don't think Sunak means that class of sick-note scrounger. I suspect Simon Case is of a status justifying a helping hand when times are hard. Cider-swilling, cigarette smoking Sky TV watchers on the other hand...
That's right, the people Sunak is targeting are those who have made bad life choices - like choosing to be born to poor parents, choosing to go to a sink state school rather than a top public school, choosing to work in Asda rather than for a hedge fund...
You jest (I think). But that is somewhat Sunak's political philosophy. He's not doing this because he's hopeless but because he's believes government should be for the rich, not for the poor.
As Rishi seeks to address Britain's post-Covid sick note (now renamed fit note something something 1984) culture, his government proposes to extend state control of people's, or children's, lives with bans on smoking, smacking and smartphones. Not exactly small state, however meritorious those measures.
If you were going to do a comedy musical about the last fourteen years of Conservative government, what better ending could you hope for than the prime minister giving a big speech out of nowhere, to tell everyone that they’re not really depressed?
There will always be abusers of any system where "free" money is available. Sunak is not targeting this chap, "it's the lot of them, they're all as bad as each other, when I'm short of a bob or two, I don't rely on the state, I ask my wife for a sub ".
The guy in the video doesn't even say that he claims this money. He just says to trust him, that it's "factual", that you can phone the DWP (with your sleep apnea diagnosis from a doctor, lol) and then they will pay it. Good luck with that.
The video is fraudulent.
People need to be a bit more critical of the bollocks they read and watch online.
Does anyone have some actual numbers on the fraud rates for various benefits?
Does anyone have some actual data on the breakdown of the conditions for which people are off sick?
The government published number for welfare fraud is 2.7% - though this is of course an estimate, based on the level of fraud they've detected and then some assumptions.
I'm sure they have some numbers on what people are claiming the benefits for. UK government data releases are quite good overall.
Excellent. A number is always a good start.
How does 2.7% compare to other European nations?
No idea. But the DWP changed their methodology for estimating it in 2019, and so they say not to compare their estimates from 2019 onwards with those from before (but, y'know, still put them on the same graph, the twits), so, unless Eurostat have a common methodology it would be pretty much impossible to compare estimated fraud rates across countries.
I can’t help wondering if it has crossed Sunak’s mind that sick note Britain is not entirely unconnected with the deterioration of the NHS. With several million on waiting lists, unable to live their normal lives, often in pain or with restricted mobility, absent from the structure and socialisation of work, is it really surprising that so many conditions become more complicated and chronic?
The failure of the NHS is a particular UK problem and the obvious place to start when looking for an explanation to this phenomenon.
Yes, an almost totally public-sector healthcare system with no slack is unique in the developed world.
As Rishi seeks to address Britain's post-Covid sick note (now renamed fit note something something 1984) culture, his government proposes to extend state control of people's, or children's, lives with bans on smoking, smacking and smartphones. Not exactly small state, however meritorious those measures.
If you were going to do a comedy musical about the last fourteen years of Conservative government, what better ending could you hope for than the prime minister giving a big speech out of nowhere, to tell everyone that they’re not really depressed?
There will always be abusers of any system where "free" money is available. Sunak is not targeting this chap, "it's the lot of them, they're all as bad as each other, when I'm short of a bob or two, I don't rely on the state, I ask my wife for a sub ".
The guy in the video doesn't even say that he claims this money. He just says to trust him, that it's "factual", that you can phone the DWP (with your sleep apnea diagnosis from a doctor, lol) and then they will pay it. Good luck with that.
The video is fraudulent.
People need to be a bit more critical of the bollocks they read and watch online.
Does anyone have some actual numbers on the fraud rates for various benefits?
Does anyone have some actual data on the breakdown of the conditions for which people are off sick?
The government published number for welfare fraud is 2.7% - though this is of course an estimate, based on the level of fraud they've detected and then some assumptions.
I'm sure they have some numbers on what people are claiming the benefits for. UK government data releases are quite good overall.
Here are some PIP statistics. 47% of claims are refused. I don't think phoning up and asking for a payment due to snoring is going to get you very far.
The five most commonly recorded disabling conditions for claims under normal rules are:
Psychiatric disorder (38% of claims) Musculoskeletal disease (general) (20% of claims) Neurological disease (12% of claims) Musculoskeletal disease (regional) (12% of claims) Respiratory disease (4% of claims)
You can see why that 38% of claims for to a psychiatric disorder would be tempting to deal with, but Sunak's stated approach is simply playing to the gallery rather than any useful attempt to engage with the issue.
I would be very interested in a plot of that over time.
I would not be surprised if “Psychiatric disorder” changed in major way through COVID.
While it is approaching personal anecdote level, the numbers of people I know, adults and children who are having major problems seems to have gone up.
A further question would be whether this was due to lockdown or something else? Certainly lockdown seemed to have a horrible effect on some personality types. Especially when combined with tiny spaces to live in.
I would also wonder whether there was an indirect effect - without working non-stop, some people seem to have taken a look a their lives and really not liked what they saw. “What am I and what have I got to live for?”. Again, personal anecdote.
I can’t help wondering if it has crossed Sunak’s mind that sick note Britain is not entirely unconnected with the deterioration of the NHS. With several million on waiting lists, unable to live their normal lives, often in pain or with restricted mobility, absent from the structure and socialisation of work, is it really surprising that so many conditions become more complicated and chronic?
The failure of the NHS is a particular UK problem and the obvious place to start when looking for an explanation to this phenomenon.
Absolutely. In particular the collapse of mental health care in both primary and secondary care, often compounding physical disease.
Other countries manage these differently, for example with structural unemployment, but we have for decades been shifting the unemployed to long term disability benefits. This may well just entrench the difficulty to change.
The consequences of these policies is nearly 20% of our adult population between 18 and 66 being unfit for work. The PM is right to be concerned about it. It is a huge drag on our economic performance and a significant driver for immigration. But he may well find a genuinely holistic approach to the problem produces some embarrassment. So be it. It is a problem we need to address, not least for those afflicted who by and large live miserable lives.
The vast majority of people don’t want to survive on benefits . But this is the latest round of othering which the Tories do to deflect from the state of the country . Indeed Sunaks attack is likely to lead to an increase in mental health issues , anxiety and stress in those suffering is likely to increase . Helping people back into work isn’t a problem , using a stick to beat them , threatening them with destitution is .
bold statement at the start there, if that is the case why are so many on benefits. Hard to believe only Britain can have so many sick , mentally ill people. Go to Africa and lots of poor countries etc , do they have the same issues. Complex problems but for sure the low wages , high housing prices and generous benefits contribute a lot to the British disease. Why work minimum wage which will hardly pay your rent in London when you can get your house , council tax etc paid, and a wedge to live off.
'The Conservatives have struggled in this area due to the toxicity of their brand among younger voters. One video featuring Rishi Sunak and the food influencers TopJaw was deleted within minutes after a slew of negative comments from their audience.
The prime minister had more success with a series of interviews with personal financial Instagram influencers in Downing Street around the time of the spring budget, where his announcements on free childcare and national insurance cuts landed better with an audience already looking for financial tips.
Labour’s policy on Israel’s invasion of Gaza has also been strongly criticised by many younger online audiences, creating a potential risk for any content creators who want to align themselves with Starmer’s party.
Yet there is one Rubicon that is yet to be crossed in UK political content: paying influencers to make content.'
Very difficult to get right, and very easy for a backlash viral campaign. In 1997 New Labour benefited from message discipline and an old style press controlled by powerful editors and an effective monopoly on comment. We live differently now.
Probably best to keep it arms length and allow favourable activists do their work, perhaps with some off stage amplification by manipulating the algorithms and increasing views that way.
I think a portion - not all, but a sizeable portion and the addressable portion for a solution - of currently signed-off people really want to work and are able to do something. But it depends on employers accepting part time work patterns that change at short notice and also on a supportive welfare system. Neither of which are there.
It is hard to follow Raynergate, especially since James Daly for the Conservatives refused to say just what she was accused of. (Snip)
Have Labour mentioned exactly what they think Menzies did, since they reported him to the police?
Quite frankly it's none of Labour's business. It looks really, really bad on them after they have quite rightly bellyached about James Daly. Shame on them.
Mind you, one would have thought the Fylde branch of the Conservative Party would be pretty enraged by Mr Menzies's behaviour in relation to the misuse of Party funds.
If Daly hadn’t have gone after Rayner then I doubt they would have reported Menzies . It’s all gearing upto be a very ugly election campaign .
I'm reasonably sure the Menzies story would have resulted in a police investigation even without Labour's intervention.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68851004 ..The BBC did not initially name Ms Fieldhouse but she has now agreed to be named and speak publicly for the first time. Ms Fieldhouse told the BBC she raised her concerns with the Conservative Chief Whip Simon Hart after discussing money with Mr Menzies again. Although the Conservative Party started an investigation, Ms Fieldhouse said she was left "appalled" by the inaction. The Times reported that the scandal was reported to the Mr Hart back in January. Since her report "nothing happened" Ms Fieldhouse said. "I put my faith completely in the party," but the "party has let me down," she told the BBC. She said: "I am not having this brushed under the carpet...
Surely on the "bad people shakedown" he is most likely a victim. It is serious and does need police investigation though.
On the electoral expenses is that not the electoral commission rather than police? I am not a fan of multiple agencies investigating the same thing rather than leaving it to the one most suitable.
Genuine, if misguided, voters have donated their cash to Fylde Conservative Association on the expectation that it helps return a Conservative MP and Government. I do not expect they envisaged it would be spent on the services of an alleged illegal immigrant rent boy. It like donating to the dogs home only for the trustees to put all the dogs down and spend the donations on a Saga cruise.
It is hard to follow Raynergate, especially since James Daly for the Conservatives refused to say just what she was accused of. (Snip)
Have Labour mentioned exactly what they think Menzies did, since they reported him to the police?
Quite frankly it's none of Labour's business. It looks really, really bad on them after they have quite rightly bellyached about James Daly. Shame on them.
Mind you, one would have thought the Fylde branch of the Conservative Party would be pretty enraged by Mr Menzies's behaviour in relation to the misuse of Party funds.
If Daly hadn’t have gone after Rayner then I doubt they would have reported Menzies . It’s all gearing upto be a very ugly election campaign .
I'm reasonably sure the Menzies story would have resulted in a police investigation even without Labour's intervention.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68851004 ..The BBC did not initially name Ms Fieldhouse but she has now agreed to be named and speak publicly for the first time. Ms Fieldhouse told the BBC she raised her concerns with the Conservative Chief Whip Simon Hart after discussing money with Mr Menzies again. Although the Conservative Party started an investigation, Ms Fieldhouse said she was left "appalled" by the inaction. The Times reported that the scandal was reported to the Mr Hart back in January. Since her report "nothing happened" Ms Fieldhouse said. "I put my faith completely in the party," but the "party has let me down," she told the BBC. She said: "I am not having this brushed under the carpet...
Surely on the "bad people shakedown" he is most likely a victim. It is serious and does need police investigation though.
On the electoral expenses is that not the electoral commission rather than police? I am not a fan of multiple agencies investigating the same thing rather than leaving it to the one most suitable.
He didn't, and still hasn't reported a crime, so I'm far from convinced about the 'bad people' story. On the expenses, if the reported facts are investigated, then it would most likely be on the basis of fraud, rather than being an electoral offence.
Clearly for now, it's entirely a matter of speculation, but the allegations come from within his own party, from people who have dealt with him over a long period of time.
There's an edit button, just saying; your post of 'Them' had me searching for a deeper meaning ;-)
thanks for that I had thought the edit button had been removed, bizarrely
It only seems to be there when you're on a PC - can't edit when you've posted by phone. It seems.
I have 3 dots at the top rhs of the post which appear when you hover over them and allows editing. Of course noticing the mistake in the time remains an issue. I normally notice when reading a reply.
I know it’s a generally unpopular view on here, but sticking with Liz Truss would have been better than what Sunak is doing at the moment.
Lets play the scenario. Sticking with her is a Truss who was neutered by the markets and had to fire her ex from the Treasury and put Hunt in. Her agenda had been utterly demolished.
What would the continuation of her government achieved? The big problem with Sunak is that he stands for nothing and achieves less. Would the neutered Truss have been any better?
It would have been interesting to get his continuing commentary on AI.
Seriously blotted his copy book in some circles with this tweet:
Helen Joyce shows how the best intentions can morph into bullying in this sane, humane book. The role we all play in letting people be who they want to be is a delicate balancing act, no place for self-righteous partisans. https://amazon.co.uk/Trans-When-Ideology-Meets-Reality/
It would have been interesting to get his continuing commentary on AI.
Seriously blotted his copy book in some circles with this tweet:
Helen Joyce shows how the best intentions can morph into bullying in this sane, humane book. The role we all play in letting people be who they want to be is a delicate balancing act, no place for self-righteous partisans. https://amazon.co.uk/Trans-When-Ideology-Meets-Reality/
There's an edit button, just saying; your post of 'Them' had me searching for a deeper meaning ;-)
thanks for that I had thought the edit button had been removed, bizarrely
It only seems to be there when you're on a PC - can't edit when you've posted by phone. It seems.
I have 3 dots at the top rhs of the post which appear when you hover over them and allows editing. Of course noticing the mistake in the time remains an issue. I normally notice when reading a reply.
I’ve got a bit better at checking before posting, though autocomplete errors still often get through. Then checking straight after posting. That’s when I pick up and edit most.
It’s notable how some posters regularly edit and others rarely do. One poster never edits and never has typos which suggests he always proof reads posts.
Raynergate might not be cutting through, but I am sensing restlessness in the remainer camp. There is a tacit contract that rejoiners (who are 60% of the electorate) will vote tory with the prospect of initiating a long term process towards SM an eventually rejoining. But Starmer basically might as well be Farage with good PR when it comes to the EU. If the GE comes and goes and the mask doesn't drop on the EU there will be FURY. My guess is that this very fluid and illoyal electorate will find new pastures. Just to illustrate yougov found that only 12% strongly oppose SM.
Omnisis/WeThink10-11.4.24Rejoin/Stay Out62/38
Brexiteerism is a dying movement married to the declining boomer segment. Rejoin enjoud huge majorities in the under 60 year olds. Labour is making a huge error if it remains so rigid on the eu. Everybody i talk to is betting that this brexit kabuki theater from labour is just electoral strategy and will fall away.... it better or labour support will drop like a rock in government.
I wrote wrong the 60% will vote labour with the prospect of labour mellowing on the eu. Is there a hidden editing function on posted comments?
It’s normally on that little wheel to the right on your post . Although it seems to be time limited as I tried to edit my earlier post and it didn’t work .
I think a portion - not all, but a sizeable portion and the addressable portion for a solution - of currently signed-off people really want to work and are able to do something. But it depends on employers accepting part time work patterns that change at short notice and also on a supportive welfare system. Neither of which are there.
Exactly right. There’s an example in my extended family. Out of hospital after several months and a near death situation. Early 30s. Can work, wants to work, but probably can’t work anything close to full time and doesn’t have the physical capability to do his previous job (chef) in its usual form.
Many many people are ill enough that it impairs their ability to work but doesn't preclude them doing some work. They need a supportive welfare system, employers able to have the flexibility to accommodate their needs, and as little as possible of the binary yes/no sword of Damocles that is the heritage of the DWP.
Of course many do exactly this: maintain themselves on disability benefits but also do a bit of paid work on the side. Journalists would call them benefits cheats. But they are making very rational personal decisions.
OK. London to Paris by Eurostar. It will be interesting to take the two temperatures. London looking good in chilly spring sun. St Pancras gleaming. Palestine protestors marching quite politely past the Ubers for no obvious reason
I think a portion - not all, but a sizeable portion and the addressable portion for a solution - of currently signed-off people really want to work and are able to do something. But it depends on employers accepting part time work patterns that change at short notice and also on a supportive welfare system. Neither of which are there.
Exactly right. There’s an example in my extended family. Out of hospital after several months and a near death situation. Early 30s. Can work, wants to work, but probably can’t work anything close to full time and doesn’t have the physical capability to do his previous job (chef) in its usual form.
Many many people are ill enough that it impairs their ability to work but doesn't preclude them doing some work. They need a supportive welfare system, employers able to have the flexibility to accommodate their needs, and as little as possible of the binary yes/no sword of Damocles that is the heritage of the DWP.
Of course many do exactly this: maintain themselves on disability benefits but also do a bit of paid work on the side. Journalists would call them benefits cheats. But they are making very rational personal decisions.
I think it's very hard to get back into work if you duck out of it.
I recently looked at "entry" level jobs recently (out of sheer curiosity) for Aldi/Lidl and even those require CVs with relevant experience, interviews, selection days, references and hard work for basic jobs in basic jobs. They apparently get lots of applications but can also struggle to fill roles.
What do you do if you just want a job and you have nothing? Where do you go? And how do you get help adjusting to it?
I think a portion - not all, but a sizeable portion and the addressable portion for a solution - of currently signed-off people really want to work and are able to do something. But it depends on employers accepting part time work patterns that change at short notice and also on a supportive welfare system. Neither of which are there.
Exactly right. There’s an example in my extended family. Out of hospital after several months and a near death situation. Early 30s. Can work, wants to work, but probably can’t work anything close to full time and doesn’t have the physical capability to do his previous job (chef) in its usual form.
Many many people are ill enough that it impairs their ability to work but doesn't preclude them doing some work. They need a supportive welfare system, employers able to have the flexibility to accommodate their needs, and as little as possible of the binary yes/no sword of Damocles that is the heritage of the DWP.
Of course many do exactly this: maintain themselves on disability benefits but also do a bit of paid work on the side. Journalists would call them benefits cheats. But they are making very rational personal decisions.
I think it's very hard to get back into work if you duck out of it.
I recently looked at "entry" level jobs recently (out of sheer curiosity) for Aldi/Lidl and even those require CVs with relevant experience, interviews, selection days, references and hard work for basic jobs in basic jobs. They apparently get lots of applications but can also struggle to fill roles.
What do you do if you just want a job and you have nothing? Where do you go? And how do you get help adjusting to it?
I think it depends where you are. Hospitality and retail jobs around here are very easy to get into, and reasonably flexible. But everything is harder if your health situation means certain jobs aren’t possible.
As Rishi seeks to address Britain's post-Covid sick note (now renamed fit note something something 1984) culture, his government proposes to extend state control of people's, or children's, lives with bans on smoking, smacking and smartphones. Not exactly small state, however meritorious those measures.
If you were going to do a comedy musical about the last fourteen years of Conservative government, what better ending could you hope for than the prime minister giving a big speech out of nowhere, to tell everyone that they’re not really depressed?
You need to have sleep apnea. You need a diagnosis of same. You need DWP to then grant you the benefits on that basis.
Has anyone tried claiming that and actually had it paid to them?
Given the people who are disabled and have their applications refused I would be extremely surprised if anyone ever received a penny for sleep apnea - not least because it can be treated with CPAP.
But, of course, a tiktoker said it, so it must be true.
Yet people are happy to take the word of people on twitter hitting on the govt over this somewhat benign announcement, once you look at what was said.
After all is that any more or less facile than the terminally unfunny John Crace wilfully misrepresenting, ‘ Now I see it and I'm really sorry. By having a heart attack I have let my country down. More importantly, I have let Rishi Sunak down’.
Nothing will happen. Nothing will change. It’s just froth for the election.
Your regular defence of this Conservative Government is very unusual for a self confessed lifelong Labour voter.
Indeed. As is your nightly arse-licking of Sunak and declarations that you dislike every Labour MP.
Probably, but it’s a delicious one. We can dare to dream, just like the early eurosceptics did for all those years.
I think it likely that it will be a Conservative Party reverting to its pre 2016 policy of pro-EU, pro business that takes us back in.
No time soon of course, as it needs to cure its addiction to the grey vote wallowing in Commando comics nostalgia. Perhaps 3 election defeats needed first.
As Rishi seeks to address Britain's post-Covid sick note (now renamed fit note something something 1984) culture, his government proposes to extend state control of people's, or children's, lives with bans on smoking, smacking and smartphones. Not exactly small state, however meritorious those measures.
There is the possibility that rise in long term sick is gunuine, rather than skiving. It seems specific to Britain, as a similar phenomenon doesn't seem to be true elsewhere but isn't impossible.
Possibly a consequence of intractable economic and social problems (housing, work etc); in combination with 'disability' being the one residual safety net.
shit diets will not be helping either, surely cannot be any other country that eats as much processed cheap junk, sugary drinks , etc.
Indeed. Witness just right here on PB the amount of picky eaters who luxuriate in eating utter shite daily.
Raynergate might not be cutting through, but I am sensing restlessness in the remainer camp. There is a tacit contract that rejoiners (who are 60% of the electorate) will vote tory with the prospect of initiating a long term process towards SM an eventually rejoining. But Starmer basically might as well be Farage with good PR when it comes to the EU. If the GE comes and goes and the mask doesn't drop on the EU there will be FURY. My guess is that this very fluid and illoyal electorate will find new pastures. Just to illustrate yougov found that only 12% strongly oppose SM.
Omnisis/WeThink10-11.4.24Rejoin/Stay Out62/38
Brexiteerism is a dying movement married to the declining boomer segment. Rejoin enjoud huge majorities in the under 60 year olds. Labour is making a huge error if it remains so rigid on the eu. Everybody i talk to is betting that this brexit kabuki theater from labour is just electoral strategy and will fall away.... it better or labour support will drop like a rock in government.
I think this is a very important point. I find it hard to believe that the Labour leadership does not understand the depth of anti-Brexit feeling inside the party generally and that this is largely being kept in check by the prospect of power. Should we get a Labour government on the other side of a general election, there will be immense - I think irresistible - pressure to secure a closer relationship with the EU. If Starmer and co seek to hold back the dam, they are going to get overwhelmed. This is so clearly obvious to anyone close to or inside the Labour party that I cannot believe the leadership is unaware. But if it is, it is going to be in for a very big surprise.
The long game aspects of this are interesting though.
It’s probably in rejoin’s interests for politicians to be seen to be dragged kicking and screaming by the electorate to something they are nervous about doing.
I think, sadly, that Starmer’s public position on Brexit is real and he really doesn’t want to reopen the wound. But if Labour got too pushy on rejoin they could bring the cause down with their own popularity when the inevitable fall in polls happened.
The other thing is the generational dynamics. There is a generation- the same generation- who weren't keen on the EEC in '75 and we're keen on Brexit in '16. And young people aren't becoming more Eurosceptic as they age;
For those who think the issue of Brexit will go away, the frontier of age/Brexit preferences is steadily shifting in a pro-EU direction - and is likely to continue to do so as a result of population replacement. Data via BESResearch
This isn't about whether they should, who is objectively right and wrong on the merits of Brexit. It's about the vibes, and vibes win. Older people are nostalgic for their youth apart from the EEC, younger people are nostalgic for their youth inside.
If I'm right, Starmer has to keep away from the wound for the duration of his Premiership. Unpick the worst damage without changing anything drastic. Prepare the path for his successor to make bigger moves.
(Yes it is the "telling the mad old relative that we wouldn't dream of getting rid of their ghastly heirloom because they'll only kick off" theory of Brexit politics.)
I think that is right.
We have so far been sheltered from some of the more inconvenient aspects of Brexit. Rigerous customs inspections of imported consumables and the more stringent immigration checks are either on the way or kicked down the street for later.
Weird how I just keep getting lucky. Yet I travel abroad more than anyone on this forum. Its almost as if all this Brexit delay travel stuff is just bullshit
I’ve encountered Brexity passport queues twice since Brexit and I travel incessantly
Surely there’s some wider context to this piece of footage, and a Met Police sargeant didn’t actually threaten to arrest a man for “being openly Jewish in a public place”?
Victim blaming. Presumably women will be told that wearing attractive clothes will provoke men, who may not have a handy brothel nearby and so on.
You are absolutely right in every way except that if you were that Police chap and you see something that could turn into a clusterfuck you have to try and stop it. I have stopped many fights in my life where the person was right to want to make the point but it would be me that had to batter the crap out of someone to get him out safely.
The Jewish guy should not have had to try and make the point because those marches should have stopped long ago, frankly should never have started, and that’s the problem. That copper was in a no-win situation. I think we’ve exchanged a PM about our opinion on Israel/Gaza and I rein myself in here but this situation was a problem that the police could not really win.
I feel slightly bad for the copper in question for expressing something clunkily which has caused it to blow up, but on the other hand I think it clunkily reveals a dangerous attitude on behalf of the Met and so his impolitic language has helpfully crystallised the situation.
Sometimes you need to cut out the bullshit, and his instinctive response, defended by the Met in meally mouthed 'apologetic' fashion as essentially correct in principle but poorly expressed, reveals the problem inherent in their attitude.
If it was a one-off incident, then it could be passed off as some clunky language. But it’s not a one-off, it’s yet another similar incident which is becoming indicative of a pattern of behaviour, that the Met thinks Jews aren’t welcome in London.
And that if someone reacts violently to another person's presence simply for being jewish, it is the fault of the jew in question*.
I think there may be a word for that.
*(They say now that is not what they think, but it apparently is, since they defended the actions of the officer in question other than the precise words used, but the principle of it being 'provocateurs' fault)
That's what they told the Chartists about universal suffrage.
The Chartists never got their full Charter, of course.
They 5 out of 6, everything but annual parliaments. That was one of my Oxford entrance exam answers. In essence “The Chartists failed but Chartism succeeded”. A bit like Brexiteers succeeded but Brexit failed, come to think of it.
Raynergate might not be cutting through, but I am sensing restlessness in the remainer camp. There is a tacit contract that rejoiners (who are 60% of the electorate) will vote tory with the prospect of initiating a long term process towards SM an eventually rejoining. But Starmer basically might as well be Farage with good PR when it comes to the EU. If the GE comes and goes and the mask doesn't drop on the EU there will be FURY. My guess is that this very fluid and illoyal electorate will find new pastures. Just to illustrate yougov found that only 12% strongly oppose SM.
Omnisis/WeThink10-11.4.24Rejoin/Stay Out62/38
Brexiteerism is a dying movement married to the declining boomer segment. Rejoin enjoud huge majorities in the under 60 year olds. Labour is making a huge error if it remains so rigid on the eu. Everybody i talk to is betting that this brexit kabuki theater from labour is just electoral strategy and will fall away.... it better or labour support will drop like a rock in government.
I think this is a very important point. I find it hard to believe that the Labour leadership does not understand the depth of anti-Brexit feeling inside the party generally and that this is largely being kept in check by the prospect of power. Should we get a Labour government on the other side of a general election, there will be immense - I think irresistible - pressure to secure a closer relationship with the EU. If Starmer and co seek to hold back the dam, they are going to get overwhelmed. This is so clearly obvious to anyone close to or inside the Labour party that I cannot believe the leadership is unaware. But if it is, it is going to be in for a very big surprise.
The long game aspects of this are interesting though.
It’s probably in rejoin’s interests for politicians to be seen to be dragged kicking and screaming by the electorate to something they are nervous about doing.
I think, sadly, that Starmer’s public position on Brexit is real and he really doesn’t want to reopen the wound. But if Labour got too pushy on rejoin they could bring the cause down with their own popularity when the inevitable fall in polls happened.
The other thing is the generational dynamics. There is a generation- the same generation- who weren't keen on the EEC in '75 and we're keen on Brexit in '16. And young people aren't becoming more Eurosceptic as they age;
For those who think the issue of Brexit will go away, the frontier of age/Brexit preferences is steadily shifting in a pro-EU direction - and is likely to continue to do so as a result of population replacement. Data via BESResearch
This isn't about whether they should, who is objectively right and wrong on the merits of Brexit. It's about the vibes, and vibes win. Older people are nostalgic for their youth apart from the EEC, younger people are nostalgic for their youth inside.
If I'm right, Starmer has to keep away from the wound for the duration of his Premiership. Unpick the worst damage without changing anything drastic. Prepare the path for his successor to make bigger moves.
(Yes it is the "telling the mad old relative that we wouldn't dream of getting rid of their ghastly heirloom because they'll only kick off" theory of Brexit politics.)
I think that is right.
We have so far been sheltered from some of the more inconvenient aspects of Brexit. Rigerous customs inspections of imported consumables and the more stringent immigration checks are either on the way or kicked down the street for later.
Raynergate might not be cutting through, but I am sensing restlessness in the remainer camp. There is a tacit contract that rejoiners (who are 60% of the electorate) will vote tory with the prospect of initiating a long term process towards SM an eventually rejoining. But Starmer basically might as well be Farage with good PR when it comes to the EU. If the GE comes and goes and the mask doesn't drop on the EU there will be FURY. My guess is that this very fluid and illoyal electorate will find new pastures. Just to illustrate yougov found that only 12% strongly oppose SM.
Omnisis/WeThink10-11.4.24Rejoin/Stay Out62/38
Brexiteerism is a dying movement married to the declining boomer segment. Rejoin enjoud huge majorities in the under 60 year olds. Labour is making a huge error if it remains so rigid on the eu. Everybody i talk to is betting that this brexit kabuki theater from labour is just electoral strategy and will fall away.... it better or labour support will drop like a rock in government.
I don't think it's quite as simple as that, but it does point to a significant, just possible very large opportunity for the LibDems in the next Parliament.
Rejoin is not on the table this GE in England, even though both LDs and Greens have it as a longer term goal.
A large part of Rejoinism is because of Brexits strong association with this failing government. The two are conjoined twins. What happens next parliament is unclear. Will that transfer to Starmers Brexit? Or will it become a separate political cause?
After another 4 years we may have sufficient groundswell to rejoin the SM, while negotiating full Rejoin. Voters cannot be ignored forever.
Nah. The world is going to be transformed in the next 5-10 years. We will be dealing with so much economic change the idea of a massively difficult and painful referendum to rejoin a rigid trading bloc will appear insane. No prime minister will go for it
I do see some form of free movement coming back tho. Both sides want it
That's what they told the Chartists about universal suffrage.
The Chartists never got their full Charter, of course.
They 5 out of 6, everything but annual parliaments. That was one of my Oxford entrance exam answers. In essence “The Chartists failed but Chartism succeeded”. A bit like Brexiteers succeeded but Brexit failed, come to think of it.
So you must applaud David Cameron for bringing forward boundary reform to create equal sized constituencies then?
Trump is forced to acknowledge not being the most important guy in the room.
Here's how court ended, after Sandoval hearing concludes: Judge Merchan, sternly: "Contempt hearing Tuesday." Trump stands. Merchan: "Sir, can you please have a seat?" Trump sits, fuming. Merchan leaves court. Trump rises and goes out the back. Oh, joy. https://twitter.com/OurShallowState/status/1781424141918495034
As Rishi seeks to address Britain's post-Covid sick note (now renamed fit note something something 1984) culture, his government proposes to extend state control of people's, or children's, lives with bans on smoking, smacking and smartphones. Not exactly small state, however meritorious those measures.
There is the possibility that rise in long term sick is gunuine, rather than skiving. It seems specific to Britain, as a similar phenomenon doesn't seem to be true elsewhere but isn't impossible.
Possibly a consequence of intractable economic and social problems (housing, work etc); in combination with 'disability' being the one residual safety net.
There may well be abuse of the system, on the other hand post COVID, there may be minimal abuse.
Sunak clearly doesn't understand or like poor people. I am reminded of his teenage interview where he implied he hadn't really met any "working class" people.
In the early days of his premiership Sunak came across as "decent" after the excesses of Johnson and Truss. These days he comes across as vain, entitled, petty and nasty.
His scorn isn't merely for scroungers. Each week one can tell in his voice the utter contempt he has for working class social-climber made good, Starmer. Same goes for Rayner, a peasant in Rishi's world who clearly doesn't know her place.
Sunak clearly despises the jeering mob opposite, then again he must detest a good bunch of the oiks behind him.
Two reasonably foreseeable problems with Sunak.
First is that he's our first truly meritocratic Prime Minister (in the bad sense). Even Maggie had a bit of understanding of the duty of the rich to do reasonably by the poor. Methodism will do that to a gal.
Second is the unimaginability of the size of Sunak's pile of dosh. Even people who are very well off (normal bankers, say) are poor compared to the Sunaks. Goodness only knows what he makes of people making a living on a normal public sector professional salary. Probably thinks it serves them right for not doing maths and going to work for a hedge fund.
Sunak cannot help where he is from. What he can help is his complete lack of curiosity about the lives most people in the UK lead. It is extraordinary how isolated from the real world he is.
"I don't pretend to be a man of the people, but I do try to be a man for the people".
I get most of my political principles from the movie Gladiator.
Raynergate might not be cutting through, but I am sensing restlessness in the remainer camp. There is a tacit contract that rejoiners (who are 60% of the electorate) will vote tory with the prospect of initiating a long term process towards SM an eventually rejoining. But Starmer basically might as well be Farage with good PR when it comes to the EU. If the GE comes and goes and the mask doesn't drop on the EU there will be FURY. My guess is that this very fluid and illoyal electorate will find new pastures. Just to illustrate yougov found that only 12% strongly oppose SM.
Omnisis/WeThink10-11.4.24Rejoin/Stay Out62/38
Brexiteerism is a dying movement married to the declining boomer segment. Rejoin enjoud huge majorities in the under 60 year olds. Labour is making a huge error if it remains so rigid on the eu. Everybody i talk to is betting that this brexit kabuki theater from labour is just electoral strategy and will fall away.... it better or labour support will drop like a rock in government.
I don't think it's quite as simple as that, but it does point to a significant, just possible very large opportunity for the LibDems in the next Parliament.
Rejoin is not on the table this GE in England, even though both LDs and Greens have it as a longer term goal.
A large part of Rejoinism is because of Brexits strong association with this failing government. The two are conjoined twins. What happens next parliament is unclear. Will that transfer to Starmers Brexit? Or will it become a separate political cause?
After another 4 years we may have sufficient groundswell to rejoin the SM, while negotiating full Rejoin. Voters cannot be ignored forever.
Nah. The world is going to be transformed in the next 5-10 years. We will be dealing with so much economic change the idea of a massively difficult and painful referendum to rejoin a rigid trading bloc will appear insane. No prime minister will go for it
I do see some form of free movement coming back tho. Both sides want it
It's basically men in their 50s and 60s who are still irritable they lost to people they despise and want to completely turn the tables as the ultimate revenge. From that confirmation bias follows.
We won't be going back to the status quo ante bellum. The world has moved on, so has the UK and so very definitely has the EU.
I'd say the biggest barrier would be the EU letting us back in not a desire from us to get back in, given there will probably always be a residual level of Brexit feeling which could resurface. Why go through that potential hassle again when they could have some kind of enhanced partnership agreement where we follow rules without getting to vote for them or something?
I think a portion - not all, but a sizeable portion and the addressable portion for a solution - of currently signed-off people really want to work and are able to do something. But it depends on employers accepting part time work patterns that change at short notice and also on a supportive welfare system. Neither of which are there.
Exactly right. There’s an example in my extended family. Out of hospital after several months and a near death situation. Early 30s. Can work, wants to work, but probably can’t work anything close to full time and doesn’t have the physical capability to do his previous job (chef) in its usual form.
Many many people are ill enough that it impairs their ability to work but doesn't preclude them doing some work. They need a supportive welfare system, employers able to have the flexibility to accommodate their needs, and as little as possible of the binary yes/no sword of Damocles that is the heritage of the DWP.
Of course many do exactly this: maintain themselves on disability benefits but also do a bit of paid work on the side. Journalists would call them benefits cheats. But they are making very rational personal decisions.
I think it's very hard to get back into work if you duck out of it.
I recently looked at "entry" level jobs recently (out of sheer curiosity) for Aldi/Lidl and even those require CVs with relevant experience, interviews, selection days, references and hard work for basic jobs in basic jobs. They apparently get lots of applications but can also struggle to fill roles.
What do you do if you just want a job and you have nothing? Where do you go? And how do you get help adjusting to it?
I think it depends where you are. Hospitality and retail jobs around here are very easy to get into, and reasonably flexible. But everything is harder if your health situation means certain jobs aren’t possible.
Are they really easy to get into? Have you tried? You see social media posts from people despairing of getting supermarket jobs. My own anecdata from decades back is that it can be nigh-on impossible to land any job after long-term unemployment. This is not to blame employers. From their point of view, it is quite rational to give the job to the applicant already doing the same job for the company two miles up the road. And the unemployed guy might be hiding imprisonment, drugs or mental health issues.
As Rishi seeks to address Britain's post-Covid sick note (now renamed fit note something something 1984) culture, his government proposes to extend state control of people's, or children's, lives with bans on smoking, smacking and smartphones. Not exactly small state, however meritorious those measures.
There is the possibility that rise in long term sick is gunuine, rather than skiving. It seems specific to Britain, as a similar phenomenon doesn't seem to be true elsewhere but isn't impossible.
Possibly a consequence of intractable economic and social problems (housing, work etc); in combination with 'disability' being the one residual safety net.
shit diets will not be helping either, surely cannot be any other country that eats as much processed cheap junk, sugary drinks , etc.
Weird how I just keep getting lucky. Yet I travel abroad more than anyone on this forum. Its almost as if all this Brexit delay travel stuff is just bullshit
I’ve encountered Brexity passport queues twice since Brexit and I travel incessantly
Firstly travel to a non EU country doesn't count as obviously nothing has changed. So trips to Thailand or USA are unaffected.
Secondly it has to be an EU airport that is an International hub ie not one that is taking local traffic or mainly UK holidaymakers and nobody else because the situation that causes the problem doesn't arise. So trips to Faro or Alicante are pretty much unaffected except for it being slightly slower.
However if you go to a main airport and happen to land at the same time as a large flight from the USA or from anywhere outside of the EU you will be stuffed.
So I have experienced numerous flights to small airports and the USA without any issues at all. However a flight to Lisbon which landed at the same time as two flights from the USA and it was a 3 hour wait to get through passport control. Counting the length and width of the snake I reckon it was 1000 people. All gates were open and they used the EU gate and priority gate as well to clear us. EU citizens just waltzed through the EU gate.
I'd say the biggest barrier would be the EU letting us back in not a desirn from us to get back in, given there will probably always be a residual level of Brexit feeling which could resurface. Why go through that potential hassle again when they could have some kind of enhanced partnership agreement where we follow rules without getting to vote for them or something?
A generation at least I'd say.
Why do you assume that must be necessarily where we end up, with the only variable being the function of time?
As Rishi seeks to address Britain's post-Covid sick note (now renamed fit note something something 1984) culture, his government proposes to extend state control of people's, or children's, lives with bans on smoking, smacking and smartphones. Not exactly small state, however meritorious those measures.
There is the possibility that rise in long term sick is gunuine, rather than skiving. It seems specific to Britain, as a similar phenomenon doesn't seem to be true elsewhere but isn't impossible.
Possibly a consequence of intractable economic and social problems (housing, work etc); in combination with 'disability' being the one residual safety net.
There may well be abuse of the system, on the other hand post COVID, there may be minimal abuse.
Sunak clearly doesn't understand or like poor people. I am reminded of his teenage interview where he implied he hadn't really met any "working class" people.
In the early days of his premiership Sunak came across as "decent" after the excesses of Johnson and Truss. These days he comes across as vain, entitled, petty and nasty.
His scorn isn't merely for scroungers. Each week one can tell in his voice the utter contempt he has for working class social-climber made good, Starmer. Same goes for Rayner, a peasant in Rishi's world who clearly doesn't know her place.
Sunak clearly despises the jeering mob opposite, then again he must detest a good bunch of the oiks behind him.
Two reasonably foreseeable problems with Sunak.
First is that he's our first truly meritocratic Prime Minister (in the bad sense). Even Maggie had a bit of understanding of the duty of the rich to do reasonably by the poor. Methodism will do that to a gal.
Second is the unimaginability of the size of Sunak's pile of dosh. Even people who are very well off (normal bankers, say) are poor compared to the Sunaks. Goodness only knows what he makes of people making a living on a normal public sector professional salary. Probably thinks it serves them right for not doing maths and going to work for a hedge fund.
Sunak cannot help where he is from. What he can help is his complete lack of curiosity about the lives most people in the UK lead. It is extraordinary how isolated from the real world he is.
"I don't pretend to be a man of the people, but I do try to be a man for the people".
I get most of my political principles from the movie Gladiator.
I'll think you'll find DJT regularly knocks out 147 breaks and beats world champions. The only reason he doesn't play more is that people get fed up of losing to him.
I watched him golfing the other day. He is no Sam Snead. Trump has a terrible action and his address is lengthy and bizarre. He gets distance and reasonable accuracy, but with that swing, it must just be the weight he puts behind the ball that gets it to where it goes.
Weird how I just keep getting lucky. Yet I travel abroad more than anyone on this forum. Its almost as if all this Brexit delay travel stuff is just bullshit
I’ve encountered Brexity passport queues twice since Brexit and I travel incessantly
Firstly travel to a non EU country doesn't count as obviously nothing has changed. So trips to Thailand or USA are unaffected.
Secondly it has to be an EU airport that is an International hub ie not one that is taking local traffic or mainly UK holidaymakers and nobody else because the situation that causes the problem doesn't arise. So trips to Faro or Alicante are pretty much unaffected except for it being slightly slower.
However if you go to a main airport and happen to land at the same time as a large flight from the USA or from anywhere outside of the EU you will be stuffed.
So I have experienced numerous flights to small airports and the USA without any issues at all. However a flight to Lisbon which landed at the same time as two flights from the USA and it was a 3 hour wait to get through passport control. Counting the length and width of the snake I reckon it was 1000 people. All gates were open and they used the EU gate and priority gate as well to clear us. EU citizens just waltzed through the EU gate.
Yeah, but he's right though, isn't he? I flew to Bulgaria and it was very easy and hardly any queue.
Like "photographs of nothing on the supermarket shelves" that Remainers love to post on Twitter, it's all bollocks.
I'd say the biggest barrier would be the EU letting us back in not a desirn from us to get back in, given there will probably always be a residual level of Brexit feeling which could resurface. Why go through that potential hassle again when they could have some kind of enhanced partnership agreement where we follow rules without getting to vote for them or something?
A generation at least I'd say.
Why do you assume that must be necessarily where we end up, with the only variable being the function of time?
Why do you assume I assume that is inevitably the path we end up?
I think it is a good possibility we end up with a political desire to go back in, but not a certainty. If we get to such a place, if, then I don't think it will be realised for a long time.
Pleasant start here in East London but still that early spring chill. I don't want to start bleating on about the weather like that moaning minnie in North London but it isn't as warm as most would want for the second half of April though it's not raining - yet.
Plenty of post at Stodge Towers this morning - the racecard has arrived for the Mayor of London Handicap, open to three year olds of all ages. I'll do a more detailed analysis of the runners and riders later but Nick Scanlon looks like a pub bouncer in a suit and starts with "London is becoming a cesspit" - that may be true of East Ham (it isn't) but calling places like Surbiton, Cheam Village and West Wickham cesspits is a bit on the nose.
We've also received SIX letters from the NHS inviting us (that's me and Mrs Stodge) to take part in research. Six letters for two people in one house - now, I'll defend the NHS as they've been good to me and my family but this doesn't look good at a time of national stringency (and you can get ointment for that).
I think a portion - not all, but a sizeable portion and the addressable portion for a solution - of currently signed-off people really want to work and are able to do something. But it depends on employers accepting part time work patterns that change at short notice and also on a supportive welfare system. Neither of which are there.
Exactly right. There’s an example in my extended family. Out of hospital after several months and a near death situation. Early 30s. Can work, wants to work, but probably can’t work anything close to full time and doesn’t have the physical capability to do his previous job (chef) in its usual form.
Many many people are ill enough that it impairs their ability to work but doesn't preclude them doing some work. They need a supportive welfare system, employers able to have the flexibility to accommodate their needs, and as little as possible of the binary yes/no sword of Damocles that is the heritage of the DWP.
Of course many do exactly this: maintain themselves on disability benefits but also do a bit of paid work on the side. Journalists would call them benefits cheats. But they are making very rational personal decisions.
I think it's very hard to get back into work if you duck out of it.
I recently looked at "entry" level jobs recently (out of sheer curiosity) for Aldi/Lidl and even those require CVs with relevant experience, interviews, selection days, references and hard work for basic jobs in basic jobs. They apparently get lots of applications but can also struggle to fill roles.
What do you do if you just want a job and you have nothing? Where do you go? And how do you get help adjusting to it?
I think it depends where you are. Hospitality and retail jobs around here are very easy to get into, and reasonably flexible. But everything is harder if your health situation means certain jobs aren’t possible.
Are they really easy to get into? Have you tried? You see social media posts from people despairing of getting supermarket jobs. My own anecdata from decades back is that it can be nigh-on impossible to land any job after long-term unemployment. This is not to blame employers. From their point of view, it is quite rational to give the job to the applicant already doing the same job for the company two miles up the road. And the unemployed guy might be hiding imprisonment, drugs or mental health issues.
No idea about supermarkets but around here there are loads of vacancies in coffee shops, restaurants, bookshops, delis etc. And of course the Deliveroo courier world. From the experience of people we know locally - students, parents returning part time after having children, semi-retired people taking a job in the local bookshop - there does seem to be plenty of opportunity.
But we’re in an area with a lot of small business and very dense population to serve. I’m sure it’s very different in other places.
Raynergate might not be cutting through, but I am sensing restlessness in the remainer camp. There is a tacit contract that rejoiners (who are 60% of the electorate) will vote tory with the prospect of initiating a long term process towards SM an eventually rejoining. But Starmer basically might as well be Farage with good PR when it comes to the EU. If the GE comes and goes and the mask doesn't drop on the EU there will be FURY. My guess is that this very fluid and illoyal electorate will find new pastures. Just to illustrate yougov found that only 12% strongly oppose SM.
Omnisis/WeThink10-11.4.24Rejoin/Stay Out62/38
Brexiteerism is a dying movement married to the declining boomer segment. Rejoin enjoud huge majorities in the under 60 year olds. Labour is making a huge error if it remains so rigid on the eu. Everybody i talk to is betting that this brexit kabuki theater from labour is just electoral strategy and will fall away.... it better or labour support will drop like a rock in government.
I don't think it's quite as simple as that, but it does point to a significant, just possible very large opportunity for the LibDems in the next Parliament.
Rejoin is not on the table this GE in England, even though both LDs and Greens have it as a longer term goal.
A large part of Rejoinism is because of Brexits strong association with this failing government. The two are conjoined twins. What happens next parliament is unclear. Will that transfer to Starmers Brexit? Or will it become a separate political cause?
After another 4 years we may have sufficient groundswell to rejoin the SM, while negotiating full Rejoin. Voters cannot be ignored forever.
Nah. The world is going to be transformed in the next 5-10 years. We will be dealing with so much economic change the idea of a massively difficult and painful referendum to rejoin a rigid trading bloc will appear insane. No prime minister will go for it
I do see some form of free movement coming back tho. Both sides want it
It's basically men in their 50s and 60s who are still irritable they lost to people they despise and want to completely turn the tables as the ultimate revenge. From that confirmation bias follows.
We won't be going back to the status quo ante bellum. The world has moved on, so has the UK and so very definitely has the EU.
It's the fantasy - one of the heroic Lost Cause.
But that's not what the polling data say, is it? Brexit is only popular with the retired. People in their 50s and 60s are roughly equally split, but younger than that it's as popular as a poo on the carpet.
And there is no sign at all of people coming to terms with Brexit, or it embedding as the new normal. Of course that might change in the future. But it needs to change a lot to overcome the crude demographics.
Otherwise, the will of the people eventually becomes overwhelming. And at some point, the Conservatives have to soften on Europe or cap their support at thirty percent, then twenty five, then twenty...
Raynergate might not be cutting through, but I am sensing restlessness in the remainer camp. There is a tacit contract that rejoiners (who are 60% of the electorate) will vote tory with the prospect of initiating a long term process towards SM an eventually rejoining. But Starmer basically might as well be Farage with good PR when it comes to the EU. If the GE comes and goes and the mask doesn't drop on the EU there will be FURY. My guess is that this very fluid and illoyal electorate will find new pastures. Just to illustrate yougov found that only 12% strongly oppose SM.
Omnisis/WeThink10-11.4.24Rejoin/Stay Out62/38
Brexiteerism is a dying movement married to the declining boomer segment. Rejoin enjoud huge majorities in the under 60 year olds. Labour is making a huge error if it remains so rigid on the eu. Everybody i talk to is betting that this brexit kabuki theater from labour is just electoral strategy and will fall away.... it better or labour support will drop like a rock in government.
I think this is a very important point. I find it hard to believe that the Labour leadership does not understand the depth of anti-Brexit feeling inside the party generally and that this is largely being kept in check by the prospect of power. Should we get a Labour government on the other side of a general election, there will be immense - I think irresistible - pressure to secure a closer relationship with the EU. If Starmer and co seek to hold back the dam, they are going to get overwhelmed. This is so clearly obvious to anyone close to or inside the Labour party that I cannot believe the leadership is unaware. But if it is, it is going to be in for a very big surprise.
The long game aspects of this are interesting though.
It’s probably in rejoin’s interests for politicians to be seen to be dragged kicking and screaming by the electorate to something they are nervous about doing.
I think, sadly, that Starmer’s public position on Brexit is real and he really doesn’t want to reopen the wound. But if Labour got too pushy on rejoin they could bring the cause down with their own popularity when the inevitable fall in polls happened.
The other thing is the generational dynamics. There is a generation- the same generation- who weren't keen on the EEC in '75 and we're keen on Brexit in '16. And young people aren't becoming more Eurosceptic as they age;
For those who think the issue of Brexit will go away, the frontier of age/Brexit preferences is steadily shifting in a pro-EU direction - and is likely to continue to do so as a result of population replacement. Data via BESResearch
This isn't about whether they should, who is objectively right and wrong on the merits of Brexit. It's about the vibes, and vibes win. Older people are nostalgic for their youth apart from the EEC, younger people are nostalgic for their youth inside.
If I'm right, Starmer has to keep away from the wound for the duration of his Premiership. Unpick the worst damage without changing anything drastic. Prepare the path for his successor to make bigger moves.
(Yes it is the "telling the mad old relative that we wouldn't dream of getting rid of their ghastly heirloom because they'll only kick off" theory of Brexit politics.)
I think that is right.
We have so far been sheltered from some of the more inconvenient aspects of Brexit. Rigerous customs inspections of imported consumables and the more stringent immigration checks are either on the way or kicked down the street for later.
Weird how I just keep getting lucky. Yet I travel abroad more than anyone on this forum. Its almost as if all this Brexit delay travel stuff is just bullshit
I’ve encountered Brexity passport queues twice since Brexit and I travel incessantly
Firstly travel to a non EU country doesn't count as obviously nothing has changed. So trips to Thailand or USA are unaffected.
Secondly it has to be an EU airport that is an International hub ie not one that is taking local traffic or mainly UK holidaymakers and nobody else because the situation that causes the problem doesn't arise. So trips to Faro or Alicante are pretty much unaffected except for it being slightly slower.
However if you go to a main airport and happen to land at the same time as a large flight from the USA or from anywhere outside of the EU you will be stuffed.
So I have experienced numerous flights to small airports and the USA without any issues at all. However a flight to Lisbon which landed at the same time as two flights from the USA and it was a 3 hour wait to get through passport control. Counting the length and width of the snake I reckon it was 1000 people. All gates were open and they used the EU gate and priority gate as well to clear us. EU citizens just waltzed through the EU gate.
Yeah, but he's right though, isn't he? I flew to Bulgaria and it was very easy and hardly any queue.
Like "photographs of nothing on the supermarket shelves" that Remainers love to post on Twitter, it's all bollocks.
Not sure Bulgaria counts as an international hub taking EU and non-EU transfer passengers.
But yes, it varies a lot. I’ve had plenty of smooth journeys and a handful where I experienced exactly what was described: a huge queue for non-EU while the EU passengers breezed through the E-gates.
As Rishi seeks to address Britain's post-Covid sick note (now renamed fit note something something 1984) culture, his government proposes to extend state control of people's, or children's, lives with bans on smoking, smacking and smartphones. Not exactly small state, however meritorious those measures.
There is the possibility that rise in long term sick is gunuine, rather than skiving. It seems specific to Britain, as a similar phenomenon doesn't seem to be true elsewhere but isn't impossible.
Possibly a consequence of intractable economic and social problems (housing, work etc); in combination with 'disability' being the one residual safety net.
There may well be abuse of the system, on the other hand post COVID, there may be minimal abuse.
Sunak clearly doesn't understand or like poor people. I am reminded of his teenage interview where he implied he hadn't really met any "working class" people.
In the early days of his premiership Sunak came across as "decent" after the excesses of Johnson and Truss. These days he comes across as vain, entitled, petty and nasty.
His scorn isn't merely for scroungers. Each week one can tell in his voice the utter contempt he has for working class social-climber made good, Starmer. Same goes for Rayner, a peasant in Rishi's world who clearly doesn't know her place.
Sunak clearly despises the jeering mob opposite, then again he must detest a good bunch of the oiks behind him.
Two reasonably foreseeable problems with Sunak.
First is that he's our first truly meritocratic Prime Minister (in the bad sense). Even Maggie had a bit of understanding of the duty of the rich to do reasonably by the poor. Methodism will do that to a gal.
Second is the unimaginability of the size of Sunak's pile of dosh. Even people who are very well off (normal bankers, say) are poor compared to the Sunaks. Goodness only knows what he makes of people making a living on a normal public sector professional salary. Probably thinks it serves them right for not doing maths and going to work for a hedge fund.
Sunak cannot help where he is from. What he can help is his complete lack of curiosity about the lives most people in the UK lead. It is extraordinary how isolated from the real world he is.
"I don't pretend to be a man of the people, but I do try to be a man for the people".
I get most of my political principles from the movie Gladiator.
Comments
*And* the persons doing the judging are no longer to be independent. So if I were in the position of needing an allowance I can't go to my doctor but am forced to accept some inferior contractor who does what his employers want and *by definition* won't particularly have a full understanding of my condition(s). The well-known abuses of this type of procedure are too common already.
A large part of Rejoinism is because of Brexits strong association with this failing government. The two are conjoined twins. What happens next parliament is unclear. Will that transfer to Starmers Brexit? Or will it become a separate political cause?
After another 4 years we may have sufficient groundswell to rejoin the SM, while negotiating full Rejoin. Voters cannot be ignored forever.
A surprising number of people just don’t want to admit ignorance.
It’s probably in rejoin’s interests for politicians to be seen to be dragged kicking and screaming by the electorate to something they are nervous about doing.
I think, sadly, that Starmer’s public position on Brexit is real and he really doesn’t want to reopen the wound. But if Labour got too pushy on rejoin they could bring the cause down with their own popularity when the inevitable fall in polls happened.
I'm afraid this one is a simple question of right and wrong. And - shock horror - the Tories support wrong. Believe in wrong. Are Morally Wrong.
Shouldn't we also define as fraud, the deliberate refusal of benefits through a hostile system, and the demonisation of 'scroungers', such that many other people are too frightened or too confused about their rights?
On the electoral expenses is that not the electoral commission rather than police? I am not a fan of multiple agencies investigating the same thing rather than leaving it to the one most suitable.
A sane approach would go something like this
1) is there actually a disparity between the U.K. and equivalent countries? Or is it a measuring thing? As in, they sling their sick-unable-to-work in a different category
2) at the same time, look at the actual breakdown of SUW. Over time - historical data will be interesting here. For example what did CoVID actually *change*?
3) look at the estimates of fraud levels. The DWP must have something on this. Then again, they are fairly useless.
From 1-3 find out what is actually happening. Then devise a structured plan to deal with it. Then consider the secondary consequences of the changes you propose. And tertiary. Modify your proposals accordingly.
That might actually do something no harmful.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/personal-independence-payment-statistics-to-january-2024/personal-independence-payment-official-statistics-to-january-2024
Here is the conditions breakdown.
Psychiatric disorder (38% of claims)
Musculoskeletal disease (general) (20% of claims)
Neurological disease (12% of claims)
Musculoskeletal disease (regional) (12% of claims)
Respiratory disease (4% of claims)
The failure of the NHS is a particular UK problem and the obvious place to start when looking for an explanation to this phenomenon.
How does 2.7% compare to other European nations?
The essence of the vacuum at the heart of Sunakism.
The Tory Party will have a long and hard road back to even a glimpse of power and it’s policy
platform in 2024 will be irrelevant by the time of the next election.
For those who think the issue of Brexit will go away, the frontier of age/Brexit preferences is steadily shifting in a pro-EU direction - and is likely to continue to do so as a result of population replacement. Data via BESResearch
https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1777990515360714783
This isn't about whether they should, who is objectively right and wrong on the merits of Brexit. It's about the vibes, and vibes win. Older people are nostalgic for their youth apart from the EEC, younger people are nostalgic for their youth inside.
If I'm right, Starmer has to keep away from the wound for the duration of his Premiership. Unpick the worst damage without changing anything drastic. Prepare the path for his successor to make bigger moves.
(Yes it is the "telling the mad old relative that we wouldn't dream of getting rid of their ghastly heirloom because they'll only kick off" theory of Brexit politics.)
Other countries manage these differently, for example with structural unemployment, but we have for decades been shifting the unemployed to long term disability benefits. This may well just entrench the difficulty to change.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/apr/20/labour-targets-tiktok-microinfluencers-ahead-of-election
Rather interesting.
'The Conservatives have struggled in this area due to the toxicity of their brand among younger voters. One video featuring Rishi Sunak and the food influencers TopJaw was deleted within minutes after a slew of negative comments from their audience.
The prime minister had more success with a series of interviews with personal financial Instagram influencers in Downing Street around the time of the spring budget, where his announcements on free childcare and national insurance cuts landed better with an audience already looking for financial tips.
Labour’s policy on Israel’s invasion of Gaza has also been strongly criticised by many younger online audiences, creating a potential risk for any content creators who want to align themselves with Starmer’s party.
Yet there is one Rubicon that is yet to be crossed in UK political content: paying influencers to make content.'
And people complain about Sunak being left wing.
But go ahead and find the numbers if you want to.
I would not be surprised if “Psychiatric disorder” changed in major way through COVID.
While it is approaching personal anecdote level, the numbers of people I know, adults and children who are having major problems seems to have gone up.
A further question would be whether this was due to lockdown or something else? Certainly lockdown seemed to have a horrible effect on some personality types. Especially when combined with tiny spaces to live in.
I would also wonder whether there was an indirect effect - without working non-stop, some people seem to have taken a look a their lives and really not liked what they saw. “What am I and what have I got to live for?”. Again, personal anecdote.
Complex problems but for sure the low wages , high housing prices and generous benefits contribute a lot to the British disease.
Why work minimum wage which will hardly pay your rent in London when you can get your house , council tax etc paid, and a wedge to live off.
Probably best to keep it arms length and allow favourable activists do their work, perhaps with some off stage amplification by manipulating the algorithms and increasing views that way.
It's a very old missile - last upgrades were in the 80s - but longer range than most current kit.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-200_missile_system
“Week-long ambush” preceded historic Russian Tu-22 bomber downing, Ukraine intel chief says, confirming S-200 use
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/04/20/week-long-ambush-preceded-historic-russian-tu-22-bomber-downing-ukraine-intel-chief-says-confirming-s-200-use/
...A Ukrainian defense official informed TWZ that Ukraine had received assistance from partners to enhance the guidance system of the S-200 missile, making it a more modern weapon due to its effective maneuvering capabilities...
On the expenses, if the reported facts are investigated, then it would most likely be on the basis of fraud, rather than being an electoral offence.
Clearly for now, it's entirely a matter of speculation, but the allegations come from within his own party, from people who have dealt with him over a long period of time.
Of course noticing the mistake in the time remains an issue. I normally notice when reading a reply.
Helen Joyce shows how the best intentions can morph into bullying in this sane, humane book. The role we all play in letting people be who they want to be is a delicate balancing act, no place for self-righteous partisans.
https://amazon.co.uk/Trans-When-Ideology-Meets-Reality/
https://x.com/danieldennett/status/1392162301407633424
...I'll add that your own thinking radically changed my entire view of the world, and I am very much in your debt...
It’s notable how some posters regularly edit and others rarely do. One poster never edits and never has typos which suggests he always proof reads posts.
Many many people are ill enough that it impairs their ability to work but doesn't preclude them doing some work. They need a supportive welfare system, employers able to have the flexibility to accommodate their needs, and as little as possible of the binary yes/no sword of Damocles that is the heritage of the DWP.
Of course many do exactly this: maintain themselves on disability benefits but also do a bit of paid work on the side. Journalists would call them benefits cheats. But they are making very rational personal decisions.
We can dare to dream, just like the early eurosceptics did for all those years.
I recently looked at "entry" level jobs recently (out of sheer curiosity) for Aldi/Lidl and even those require CVs with relevant experience, interviews, selection days, references and hard work for basic jobs in basic jobs. They apparently get lots of applications but can also struggle to fill roles.
What do you do if you just want a job and you have nothing? Where do you go? And how do you get help adjusting to it?
You guys weren’t joking
No time soon of course, as it needs to cure its addiction to the grey vote wallowing in Commando comics nostalgia. Perhaps 3 election defeats needed first.
We have so far been sheltered from some of the more inconvenient aspects of Brexit. Rigerous customs inspections of imported consumables and the more stringent immigration checks are either on the way or kicked down the street for later. Probably in my lifetime, but I wouldn't be surprised you end your days as a citizen of the European Union.
It might even encompass a defeated and chastened Russia.
I’ve encountered Brexity passport queues twice since Brexit and I travel incessantly
I think there may be a word for that.
*(They say now that is not what they think, but it apparently is, since they defended the actions of the officer in question other than the precise words used, but the principle of it being 'provocateurs' fault)
I do see some form of free movement coming back tho. Both sides want it
Here's how court ended, after Sandoval hearing concludes:
Judge Merchan, sternly: "Contempt hearing Tuesday." Trump stands.
Merchan: "Sir, can you please have a seat?"
Trump sits, fuming. Merchan leaves court. Trump rises and goes out the back.
Oh, joy.
https://twitter.com/OurShallowState/status/1781424141918495034
I get most of my political principles from the movie Gladiator.
We won't be going back to the status quo ante bellum. The world has moved on, so has the UK and so very definitely has the EU.
It's the fantasy - one of the heroic Lost Cause.
A generation at least I'd say.
Secondly it has to be an EU airport that is an International hub ie not one that is taking local traffic or mainly UK holidaymakers and nobody else because the situation that causes the problem doesn't arise. So trips to Faro or Alicante are pretty much unaffected except for it being slightly slower.
However if you go to a main airport and happen to land at the same time as a large flight from the USA or from anywhere outside of the EU you will be stuffed.
So I have experienced numerous flights to small airports and the USA without any issues at all. However a flight to Lisbon which landed at the same time as two flights from the USA and it was a 3 hour wait to get through passport control. Counting the length and width of the snake I reckon it was 1000 people. All gates were open and they used the EU gate and priority gate as well to clear us. EU citizens just waltzed through the EU gate.
Like "photographs of nothing on the supermarket shelves" that Remainers love to post on Twitter, it's all bollocks.
I think it is a good possibility we end up with a political desire to go back in, but not a certainty. If we get to such a place, if, then I don't think it will be realised for a long time.
Pleasant start here in East London but still that early spring chill. I don't want to start bleating on about the weather like that moaning minnie in North London but it isn't as warm as most would want for the second half of April though it's not raining - yet.
Plenty of post at Stodge Towers this morning - the racecard has arrived for the Mayor of London Handicap, open to three year olds of all ages. I'll do a more detailed analysis of the runners and riders later but Nick Scanlon looks like a pub bouncer in a suit and starts with "London is becoming a cesspit" - that may be true of East Ham (it isn't) but calling places like Surbiton, Cheam Village and West Wickham cesspits is a bit on the nose.
We've also received SIX letters from the NHS inviting us (that's me and Mrs Stodge) to take part in research. Six letters for two people in one house - now, I'll defend the NHS as they've been good to me and my family but this doesn't look good at a time of national stringency (and you can get ointment for that).
But we’re in an area with a lot of small business and very dense population to serve. I’m sure it’s very different in other places.
And there is no sign at all of people coming to terms with Brexit, or it embedding as the new normal. Of course that might change in the future. But it needs to change a lot to overcome the crude demographics.
Otherwise, the will of the people eventually becomes overwhelming. And at some point, the Conservatives have to soften on Europe or cap their support at thirty percent, then twenty five, then twenty...
But yes, it varies a lot. I’ve had plenty of smooth journeys and a handful where I experienced exactly what was described: a huge queue for non-EU while the EU passengers breezed through the E-gates.