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Raynergate isn’t cutting through – politicalbetting.com

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  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,585

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    Rejoin is a fantasy.

    I'd say the biggest barrier would be the EU letting us back in not a desirn from us to get back in, given there will probably always be a residual level of Brexit feeling which could resurface. Why go through that potential hassle again when they could have some kind of enhanced partnership agreement where we follow rules without getting to vote for them or something?

    A generation at least I'd say.
    Why do you assume that must be necessarily where we end up, with the only variable being the function of time?
    Rather oddly the sensible next step to leaving the EU and the sensible step to joining the rest of Europe for practical purposes is the Norway or the Swiss option.

    In reality only FoM prevented this earlier. Now we know that 'controlling our borders' means inward migration of over 1 million a year, and net migration of 700K this has little significance.
    Now that the new £37,500 k Visa requirement has been brought in by the government this month that should reduce non EU immigration. EU/EEA immigration has already fallen to the UK since free movement was ended.

    At the moment only the LDs, SNP and Greens back even rejoining the EEA Norway style.

    Starmer Labour is too afraid of allowing the Conservatives to hold redwall seats by restoring free movement and that will probably remain the case for some time
    You say the new visa requirement should reduce immigration, but the Govt has been saying it will reduce immigration for 14 years and yet it is at record highs. Do you think this Govt has any credibility on immigration?
    Until this month migrants coming to the UK on the Skilled Worker route currently need to earn £26,200, and Brits or settled people who want to live in the UK with their partners must currently earn £18,600. Now both will need a minimum salary of £38,700.

    That will make a big change so by autumn non EU immigration should have fallen, EU immigration has already fallen after FoM ended
    Those who voted Brexit expected immigration in total to fall, not for EU immigration to fall, but to be replaced by more non-EU immigration.

    There are various exceptions to the Skilled Worker income rules, so I think you are overselling it. Whatever the pros and cons of the scheme, that wasn’t my question, however. My question was whether this Govt has any credibility on immigration. They could introduce the best ever policy and no-one would believe it.

    If Sunak had another 3 years, he could maybe turn opinion around… but he doesn’t.
    Differing immigrants do different work as well as having different origins.

    Nigerian nurses don't affect the pay of many trades as the likes of Polish plumbers did.

    For that matter English speaking Christian West Africans might well integrate better than many other immigrant communities.

    But to too many people all immigrants are just lumped together.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,417
    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    We’re off to book a holiday. Appreciate I’m not a posho like many here so we will be limited somewhat by cash but any views on Cape Verde, Lake Garda and Praia Da Rocha ?

    I’m very surprised nobody has responded to this yet. Usually holiday questions get a deluge of advice.

    Maybe like me nobody’s been to either of those 3. I’ve been nearby to Praia da Rocha though and it’s pleasant enough. Not the most exciting. Have wanted to visit Cape Verde for years but never gone, though not the islands that I think have direct flights, Sal and Boa Vista, as they’re deserts.

    An interestingly eclectic selection of 3 destinations!
    I’ve not been to Cape Verde, but a friend of mine has, with his wife, and said it was OK. I think he went twice. Not a lot to do, I think, apart from lying on the beach, but I may be wrong.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,098

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Oh dear. The jury foreman imbibes the Daily Mail and Fox News:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68848665

    You forgot to add the fiercely anti Trump NYT 'Juror number one hails from Ireland. The jury foreperson, tasked with overseeing deliberations, he now works in sales and is married. In his spare time, he enjoys anything "outdoorsy", and gets his news from the New York Times, the Daily Mail and Fox News.'

    In fact the most common media mentioned for jurors to read or watch are the NYT followed by CNN, neither of which are pro Trump in any shape or form.

    The case is taking place in Manhattan and Manhattan voted 86% for Biden in 2020, this jury is extremely unlikely to be pro Trump. Indeed the foreman might be the only one on the jury who even considered voting for him looking at the profiles
    I'm happy enough with the Jury as a whole - esp the group description of them as "highly educated" - but that Foreman does give me a queasy feeling. Fox News and the Daily Mail is a worrying combination. I'm hoping he only tunes into those for a giggle (as we all do sometimes).

    Point is, we need 12 out of 12 here. Just the one guy doing a Henry Fonda would ruin things. And the person best placed to try something like that is probably the Foreman. He must be quite assertive to have got the job. Whatever, it's amazing to have finally got a proper criminal trial of Donald Trump up and running and I'm really looking forward to seeing it play out.
    Yes the "problem" isnt that there is a cross section of society its that in this trial you need 12/12 whereas others accept majority verdicts. This is obviously a feature as well as a bug as it reduces the chance of an innocent person being found guilty at the same time as increasing the chance of the guilty getting off. Worth it or not is a matter of preference.
    You can argue the pros and cons in general but for cases against Trump my hard preference is for permissible majority guilty verdict. My (already slim) hopes for this one sank a little further when I saw it had to be unanimous. But let's see. It's a strong case.

    I don't suppose he'll testify?
    Not unless he has gone full gaga.
    Yes, Trump in the dock would be a bloodsport for any good prosecution lawyer.
    Since Trump (no doubt against his own legal advice) seems incapable of stopping himself threatening a judge's relatives, further defaming people he's already been convicted of defaming and generally ignoring direct instructions from judges, might he not be able to resist the temptation of letting the court experience his unique genius? Here's hoping.
    That would be special.

    "Nobody knows more about paying off pornstars than me. It was a perfect payment. Go on, ask me anything. I'm probably the cleverest most unbelievably innocent person ever to appear here. Witchhunt! Witchhunt!"
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    Some European temperatures are ten Celsius below normal. Nor is this a tiny blip. This will continue for a week
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,585
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    We’re off to book a holiday. Appreciate I’m not a posho like many here so we will be limited somewhat by cash but any views on Cape Verde, Lake Garda and Praia Da Rocha ?

    I’m very surprised nobody has responded to this yet. Usually holiday questions get a deluge of advice.

    Maybe like me nobody’s been to either of those 3. I’ve been nearby to Praia da Rocha though and it’s pleasant enough. Not the most exciting. Have wanted to visit Cape Verde for years but never gone, though not the islands that I think have direct flights, Sal and Boa Vista, as they’re deserts.

    An interestingly eclectic selection of 3 destinations!
    I would have replied but I’m on the Eurostar

    I’ve not done Cape Verde but it’s hard to go wrong with lake Garda. One of the most beautiful places on the planet - tho I wouldn’t go in very high season

    Btw the weather in northern France is just as bad as the uk. Ditto the forecast. The incredibly shit
    weather is a Europe wide thing. I’m off to Italy in a couple of weeks and I’ve been checking the weather there. My intended destination is right now 8C

    8C. On the med coast of southern Italy. In late April

    Astonishing. wtf is going on?
    Winter was mild but that might add to the aggravation - the weather has been effectively the same for four months.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    Andy_JS said:

    "Benefits to be axed after a year on the dole to stop it becoming a 'lifestyle choice', Prime Minister announces"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13330045/Benefits-axed-year-stop-lifestyle-choice-Prime-Minister.html

    This is one of those glorious stories that has popped up from time to time all my life. Our country would not be the same without them.

    It feels almost time for a minister to say 'British jobs for British workers', 'it's time to get back to basics'. And so on.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,574

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    We’re off to book a holiday. Appreciate I’m not a posho like many here so we will be limited somewhat by cash but any views on Cape Verde, Lake Garda and Praia Da Rocha ?

    I’m very surprised nobody has responded to this yet. Usually holiday questions get a deluge of advice.

    Maybe like me nobody’s been to either of those 3. I’ve been nearby to Praia da Rocha though and it’s pleasant enough. Not the most exciting. Have wanted to visit Cape Verde for years but never gone, though not the islands that I think have direct flights, Sal and Boa Vista, as they’re deserts.

    An interestingly eclectic selection of 3 destinations!
    I would have replied but I’m on the Eurostar

    I’ve not done Cape Verde but it’s hard to go wrong with lake Garda. One of the most beautiful places on the planet - tho I wouldn’t go in very high season

    Btw the weather in northern France is just as bad as the uk. Ditto the forecast. The incredibly shit
    weather is a Europe wide thing. I’m off to Italy in a couple of weeks and I’ve been checking the weather there. My intended destination is right now 8C

    8C. On the med coast of southern Italy. In late April

    Astonishing. wtf is going on?
    Winter was mild but that might add to the aggravation - the weather has been effectively the same for four months.
    70% humidity, overcast, and 33° here in the Orient. Unpleasant.

    Have discovered what cheese the french make when they think french people aren't looking though:


  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    We’re off to book a holiday. Appreciate I’m not a posho like many here so we will be limited somewhat by cash but any views on Cape Verde, Lake Garda and Praia Da Rocha ?

    I’m very surprised nobody has responded to this yet. Usually holiday questions get a deluge of advice.

    Maybe like me nobody’s been to either of those 3. I’ve been nearby to Praia da Rocha though and it’s pleasant enough. Not the most exciting. Have wanted to visit Cape Verde for years but never gone, though not the islands that I think have direct flights, Sal and Boa Vista, as they’re deserts.

    An interestingly eclectic selection of 3 destinations!
    I would have replied but I’m on the Eurostar

    I’ve not done Cape Verde but it’s hard to go wrong with lake Garda. One of the most beautiful places on the planet - tho I wouldn’t go in very high season

    Btw the weather in northern France is just as bad as the uk. Ditto the forecast. The incredibly shit
    weather is a Europe wide thing. I’m off to Italy in a couple of weeks and I’ve been checking the weather there. My intended destination is right now 8C

    8C. On the med coast of southern Italy. In late April

    Astonishing. wtf is going on?
    Winter was mild but that might add to the aggravation - the weather has been effectively the same for four months.
    18 months in the uk. Literally. The wettest 18 months in our history

    Everyone in Paris is in winter coats and scarves. April 20
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    Rejoin is a fantasy.

    I'd say the biggest barrier would be the EU letting us back in not a desirn from us to get back in, given there will probably always be a residual level of Brexit feeling which could resurface. Why go through that potential hassle again when they could have some kind of enhanced partnership agreement where we follow rules without getting to vote for them or something?

    A generation at least I'd say.
    Why do you assume that must be necessarily where we end up, with the only variable being the function of time?
    Rather oddly the sensible next step to leaving the EU and the sensible step to joining the rest of Europe for practical purposes is the Norway or the Swiss option.

    In reality only FoM prevented this earlier. Now we know that 'controlling our borders' means inward migration of over 1 million a year, and net migration of 700K this has little significance.
    Now that the new £37,500 k Visa requirement has been brought in by the government this month that should reduce non EU immigration. EU/EEA immigration has already fallen to the UK since free movement was ended.

    At the moment only the LDs, SNP and Greens back even rejoining the EEA Norway style.

    Starmer Labour is too afraid of allowing the Conservatives to hold redwall seats by restoring free movement and that will probably remain the case for some time
    You say the new visa requirement should reduce immigration, but the Govt has been saying it will reduce immigration for 14 years and yet it is at record highs. Do you think this Govt has any credibility on immigration?
    Until this month migrants coming to the UK on the Skilled Worker route currently need to earn £26,200, and Brits or settled people who want to live in the UK with their partners must currently earn £18,600. Now both will need a minimum salary of £38,700.

    That will make a big change so by autumn non EU immigration should have fallen, EU immigration has already fallen after FoM ended
    Is there an election due perchance? I wonder what it would be post election if they somehow won? Best guess is they would avoid indexing it and grant a load of special exemptions to get the workers we need in, most of which end up working in state funded sectors like health and care.
    There are already a load of those exemptions, yes.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,585
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Oh dear. The jury foreman imbibes the Daily Mail and Fox News:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68848665

    You forgot to add the fiercely anti Trump NYT 'Juror number one hails from Ireland. The jury foreperson, tasked with overseeing deliberations, he now works in sales and is married. In his spare time, he enjoys anything "outdoorsy", and gets his news from the New York Times, the Daily Mail and Fox News.'

    In fact the most common media mentioned for jurors to read or watch are the NYT followed by CNN, neither of which are pro Trump in any shape or form.

    The case is taking place in Manhattan and Manhattan voted 86% for Biden in 2020, this jury is extremely unlikely to be pro Trump. Indeed the foreman might be the only one on the jury who even considered voting for him looking at the profiles
    I'm happy enough with the Jury as a whole - esp the group description of them as "highly educated" - but that Foreman does give me a queasy feeling. Fox News and the Daily Mail is a worrying combination. I'm hoping he only tunes into those for a giggle (as we all do sometimes).

    Point is, we need 12 out of 12 here. Just the one guy doing a Henry Fonda would ruin things. And the person best placed to try something like that is probably the Foreman. He must be quite assertive to have got the job. Whatever, it's amazing to have finally got a proper criminal trial of Donald Trump up and running and I'm really looking forward to seeing it play out.
    Yes the "problem" isnt that there is a cross section of society its that in this trial you need 12/12 whereas others accept majority verdicts. This is obviously a feature as well as a bug as it reduces the chance of an innocent person being found guilty at the same time as increasing the chance of the guilty getting off. Worth it or not is a matter of preference.
    You can argue the pros and cons in general but for cases against Trump my hard preference is for permissible majority guilty verdict. My (already slim) hopes for this one sank a little further when I saw it had to be unanimous. But let's see. It's a strong case.

    I don't suppose he'll testify?
    Not unless he has gone full gaga.
    Yes, Trump in the dock would be a bloodsport for any good prosecution lawyer.
    Since Trump (no doubt against his own legal advice) seems incapable of stopping himself threatening a judge's relatives, further defaming people he's already been convicted of defaming and generally ignoring direct instructions from judges, might he not be able to resist the temptation of letting the court experience his unique genius? Here's hoping.
    That would be special.

    "Nobody knows more about paying off pornstars than me. It was a perfect payment. Go on, ask me anything. I'm probably the cleverest most unbelievably innocent person ever to appear here. Witchhunt! Witchhunt!"
    I'm hoping for a repeat of this from the 1968 Chicago convention trial:

    On the morning of October 29, after Seale called Judge Hoffman a "rotten racist pig, fascist liar", the judge responded: "Let the record show the tone of Mr. Seale's voice was one of shrieking and pounding on the table and shouting",[31] and Seale replied, "If a witness is on the stand and testifies against me and I stand up and speak out in behalf of my right to have my lawyer and to defend myself and you deny me that, I have a right to make those requests. I have a right to make those demands on my constitutional rights. I have a constitutional right to speak, and if you try to suppress my constitutional right to speak out in behalf of my constitutional rights, then I can only see you as a bigot, a racist, and a fascist, and I have said before and clearly indicated on the record."[30]

    In the afternoon session of October 29, Judge Hoffman ordered Seale to be bound, gagged, and chained to a chair.


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_Seven#Bobby_Seale
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,585
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    We’re off to book a holiday. Appreciate I’m not a posho like many here so we will be limited somewhat by cash but any views on Cape Verde, Lake Garda and Praia Da Rocha ?

    I’m very surprised nobody has responded to this yet. Usually holiday questions get a deluge of advice.

    Maybe like me nobody’s been to either of those 3. I’ve been nearby to Praia da Rocha though and it’s pleasant enough. Not the most exciting. Have wanted to visit Cape Verde for years but never gone, though not the islands that I think have direct flights, Sal and Boa Vista, as they’re deserts.

    An interestingly eclectic selection of 3 destinations!
    I would have replied but I’m on the Eurostar

    I’ve not done Cape Verde but it’s hard to go wrong with lake Garda. One of the most beautiful places on the planet - tho I wouldn’t go in very high season

    Btw the weather in northern France is just as bad as the uk. Ditto the forecast. The incredibly shit
    weather is a Europe wide thing. I’m off to Italy in a couple of weeks and I’ve been checking the weather there. My intended destination is right now 8C

    8C. On the med coast of southern Italy. In late April

    Astonishing. wtf is going on?
    Winter was mild but that might add to the aggravation - the weather has been effectively the same for four months.
    18 months in the uk. Literally. The wettest 18 months in our history

    Everyone in Paris is in winter coats and scarves. April 20
    July and August were very wet last year.

    Although June, September and October were better than normal.

    I think we also tend to remember disappointing weather in the recent past but forget about it in the more distant.

    Certainly a look at cricket scores from when I was young shows that it rained most weeks in the summer at some point.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    Rejoin is a fantasy.

    I'd say the biggest barrier would be the EU letting us back in not a desirn from us to get back in, given there will probably always be a residual level of Brexit feeling which could resurface. Why go through that potential hassle again when they could have some kind of enhanced partnership agreement where we follow rules without getting to vote for them or something?

    A generation at least I'd say.
    Why do you assume that must be necessarily where we end up, with the only variable being the function of time?
    Rather oddly the sensible next step to leaving the EU and the sensible step to joining the rest of Europe for practical purposes is the Norway or the Swiss option.

    In reality only FoM prevented this earlier. Now we know that 'controlling our borders' means inward migration of over 1 million a year, and net migration of 700K this has little significance.
    Now that the new £37,500 k Visa requirement has been brought in by the government this month that should reduce non EU immigration. EU/EEA immigration has already fallen to the UK since free movement was ended.

    At the moment only the LDs, SNP and Greens back even rejoining the EEA Norway style.

    Starmer Labour is too afraid of allowing the Conservatives to hold redwall seats by restoring free movement and that will probably remain the case for some time
    You say the new visa requirement should reduce immigration, but the Govt has been saying it will reduce immigration for 14 years and yet it is at record highs. Do you think this Govt has any credibility on immigration?
    Until this month migrants coming to the UK on the Skilled Worker route currently need to earn £26,200, and Brits or settled people who want to live in the UK with their partners must currently earn £18,600. Now both will need a minimum salary of £38,700.

    That will make a big change so by autumn non EU immigration should have fallen, EU immigration has already fallen after FoM ended
    Those who voted Brexit expected immigration in total to fall, not for EU immigration to fall, but to be replaced by more non-EU immigration.

    There are various exceptions to the Skilled Worker income rules, so I think you are overselling it. Whatever the pros and cons of the scheme, that wasn’t my question, however. My question was whether this Govt has any credibility on immigration. They could introduce the best ever policy and no-one would believe it.

    If Sunak had another 3 years, he could maybe turn opinion around… but he doesn’t.
    Differing immigrants do different work as well as having different origins.

    Nigerian nurses don't affect the pay of many trades as the likes of Polish plumbers did.

    For that matter English speaking Christian West Africans might well integrate better than many other immigrant communities.

    But to too many people all immigrants are just lumped together.
    Yes, immigration is a complex phenomenon, involving a wide range of different people from different places doing different things. The UK public is generally more welcoming of most immigrant groups when they are considered separately (e.g., students, healthcare workers, Ukrainian refugees) than when you present them with a total figure.

    However, the Tories have spent years talking about the total figure, emphasising how high it is and how they are going to do something about it, and then have delivered record high values for that total figure. I’m not critiquing UK immigration policy. I’m critiquing the Conservatives’ (and Brexiteers’) abject failure whereby they have talked up something and then done spectacularly badly on that thing.

    I have no ability to play tennis. So I don’t go around boasting about how I’ll be great at tennis, and then suck at it.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,998
    On topic: I note that nearly all the comments here illustrate the argument made in the header.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    We’re off to book a holiday. Appreciate I’m not a posho like many here so we will be limited somewhat by cash but any views on Cape Verde, Lake Garda and Praia Da Rocha ?

    I’m very surprised nobody has responded to this yet. Usually holiday questions get a deluge of advice.

    Maybe like me nobody’s been to either of those 3. I’ve been nearby to Praia da Rocha though and it’s pleasant enough. Not the most exciting. Have wanted to visit Cape Verde for years but never gone, though not the islands that I think have direct flights, Sal and Boa Vista, as they’re deserts.

    An interestingly eclectic selection of 3 destinations!
    I would have replied but I’m on the Eurostar

    I’ve not done Cape Verde but it’s hard to go wrong with lake Garda. One of the most beautiful places on the planet - tho I wouldn’t go in very high season

    Btw the weather in northern France is just as bad as the uk. Ditto the forecast. The incredibly shit
    weather is a Europe wide thing. I’m off to Italy in a couple of weeks and I’ve been checking the weather there. My intended destination is right now 8C

    8C. On the med coast of southern Italy. In late April

    Astonishing. wtf is going on?
    Winter was mild but that might add to the aggravation - the weather has been effectively the same for four months.
    18 months in the uk. Literally. The wettest 18 months in our history

    Everyone in Paris is in winter coats and scarves. April 20
    July and August were very wet last year.

    Although June, September and October were better than normal.

    I think we also tend to remember disappointing weather in the recent past but forget about it in the more distant.

    Certainly a look at cricket scores from when I was young shows that it rained most weeks in the summer at some point.
    But it literally has been the wettest 18 months since records began in 1836

    https://news.sky.com/story/england-soaked-by-record-rainfall-in-last-18-months-new-met-office-figures-show-13106645
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    Paris is looking surprisingly fucked up
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,903
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    Rejoin is a fantasy.

    I'd say the biggest barrier would be the EU letting us back in not a desirn from us to get back in, given there will probably always be a residual level of Brexit feeling which could resurface. Why go through that potential hassle again when they could have some kind of enhanced partnership agreement where we follow rules without getting to vote for them or something?

    A generation at least I'd say.
    Why do you assume that must be necessarily where we end up, with the only variable being the function of time?
    Rather oddly the sensible next step to leaving the EU and the sensible step to joining the rest of Europe for practical purposes is the Norway or the Swiss option.

    In reality only FoM prevented this earlier. Now we know that 'controlling our borders' means inward migration of over 1 million a year, and net migration of 700K this has little significance.
    Now that the new £37,500 k Visa requirement has been brought in by the government this month that should reduce non EU immigration. EU/EEA immigration has already fallen to the UK since free movement was ended.

    At the moment only the LDs, SNP and Greens back even rejoining the EEA Norway style.

    Starmer Labour is too afraid of allowing the Conservatives to hold redwall seats by restoring free movement and that will probably remain the case for some time
    You say the new visa requirement should reduce immigration, but the Govt has been saying it will reduce immigration for 14 years and yet it is at record highs. Do you think this Govt has any credibility on immigration?
    Until this month migrants coming to the UK on the Skilled Worker route currently need to earn £26,200, and Brits or settled people who want to live in the UK with their partners must currently earn £18,600. Now both will need a minimum salary of £38,700.

    That will make a big change so by autumn non EU immigration should have fallen, EU immigration has already fallen after FoM ended
    But what about illegal immigration? You know, the people who are even going to be paid £30,000 pa....

    Not all immigrants can end up as cabinet ministers.....
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 694
    A friend went to Cape Verde ( or Cabo Verde) pre COVID. She said the hotel complex had top of the range fittings and facilities but outside the complex she was struck by the poverty. The Atlantic can be pretty rough so don't swim in the sea unless you are a very strong swimmer.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    Wow
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044

    On topic: I note that nearly all the comments here illustrate the argument made in the header.

    There was a discussion earlier of how much benefit fraud there is. I was going to say that there is as much tax avoidance/evasion as benefit fraud, but the Tories don’t like to talk about that… except clearly in Rayner’s case, for once, they do!

    https://fullfact.org/online/benefit-fraud-tax-avoidance-losses/ says £6.4 billion in benefit fraud versus £1.4 billion tax avoidance (legal but against the spirit of the law) + £4.7 tax evasion. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/measuring-tax-gaps/7-tax-gaps-illustrative-tax-gap-by-behaviour goes into more detail and notes various other non-legal avenues of tax being lost.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    Anyone moaning about Brexit Britain needs to come to Paris
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,213
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Oh dear. The jury foreman imbibes the Daily Mail and Fox News:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68848665

    You forgot to add the fiercely anti Trump NYT 'Juror number one hails from Ireland. The jury foreperson, tasked with overseeing deliberations, he now works in sales and is married. In his spare time, he enjoys anything "outdoorsy", and gets his news from the New York Times, the Daily Mail and Fox News.'

    In fact the most common media mentioned for jurors to read or watch are the NYT followed by CNN, neither of which are pro Trump in any shape or form.

    The case is taking place in Manhattan and Manhattan voted 86% for Biden in 2020, this jury is extremely unlikely to be pro Trump. Indeed the foreman might be the only one on the jury who even considered voting for him looking at the profiles
    I'm happy enough with the Jury as a whole - esp the group description of them as "highly educated" - but that Foreman does give me a queasy feeling. Fox News and the Daily Mail is a worrying combination. I'm hoping he only tunes into those for a giggle (as we all do sometimes).

    Point is, we need 12 out of 12 here. Just the one guy doing a Henry Fonda would ruin things. And the person best placed to try something like that is probably the Foreman. He must be quite assertive to have got the job. Whatever, it's amazing to have finally got a proper criminal trial of Donald Trump up and running and I'm really looking forward to seeing it play out.
    Yes the "problem" isnt that there is a cross section of society its that in this trial you need 12/12 whereas others accept majority verdicts. This is obviously a feature as well as a bug as it reduces the chance of an innocent person being found guilty at the same time as increasing the chance of the guilty getting off. Worth it or not is a matter of preference.
    You can argue the pros and cons in general but for cases against Trump my hard preference is for permissible majority guilty verdict. My (already slim) hopes for this one sank a little further when I saw it had to be unanimous. But let's see. It's a strong case.

    I don't suppose he'll testify?
    Not unless he has gone full gaga.
    Yes, Trump in the dock would be a bloodsport for any good prosecution lawyer.
    Since Trump (no doubt against his own legal advice) seems incapable of stopping himself threatening a judge's relatives, further defaming people he's already been convicted of defaming and generally ignoring direct instructions from judges, might he not be able to resist the temptation of letting the court experience his unique genius? Here's hoping.
    That would be special.

    "Nobody knows more about paying off pornstars than me. It was a perfect payment. Go on, ask me anything. I'm probably the cleverest most unbelievably innocent person ever to appear here. Witchhunt! Witchhunt!"
    The first sentence is probably true - for a statement by Trump, that is remarkable. All by itself.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,239

    TimS said:

    kjh said:

    kle4 said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Leon said:

    OMG these Brexit queues. They are HORRIFIC

    You guys weren’t joking



    That’s before the new rules come in .
    Weird how I just keep getting lucky. Yet I travel abroad more than anyone on this forum. Its almost as if all this Brexit delay travel stuff is just bullshit

    I’ve encountered Brexity passport queues twice since Brexit and I travel incessantly
    Firstly travel to a non EU country doesn't count as obviously nothing has changed. So trips to Thailand or USA are unaffected.

    Secondly it has to be an EU airport that is an International hub ie not one that is taking local traffic or mainly UK holidaymakers and nobody else because the situation that causes the problem doesn't arise. So trips to Faro or Alicante are pretty much unaffected except for it being slightly slower.

    However if you go to a main airport and happen to land at the same time as a large flight from the USA or from anywhere outside of the EU you will be stuffed.

    So I have experienced numerous flights to small airports and the USA without any issues at all. However a flight to Lisbon which landed at the same time as two flights from the USA and it was a 3 hour wait to get through passport control. Counting the length and width of the snake I reckon it was 1000 people. All gates were open and they used the EU gate and priority gate as well to clear us. EU citizens just waltzed through the EU gate.
    I travel far more often that you. To the EU and everywhere else

    Since Brexit I have encountered really annoying Brexit related delays (ie an hour+ extra queue) exactly twice. Once in Iceland once in Switzerland (for the reasons you say). And both a while ago

    I’ve had smaller delays - 10-20 minutes - 3 or 4 times and none recently. That’s it. My god. The pain
    Yes I know you do. But you shouldn't have those delays and if you are an infrequent traveller and unlucky it is really annoying. In your case you are taking it with the flow. You travel hugely. You know shit will happen occasionally (usually not Brexit related) and live with it. If you do it once or twice a year and are unlucky and wait 3 hours while you see an empty EU gate you really get pissed.
    Sure, but as one of those people who doesn't travel a lot, is it that big a deal then?
    @leon posted about missing a flight recently from the far east. He took it in his stride as a
    seasoned travel. Imagine if that was your flight back from a 2 week holiday. You would be beside yourself.
    I’ve missed 5 flights in my adult life, which I believe is quite an unusual achievement:

    1. Stansted to Malmo, because of traffic jam on the M11
    2. Paris CDG to home: traffic jam on périphérique
    3. Heathrow to Hamburg: got to the gate and realised I had my sons passport
    4. Schipol to home: delayed flight so sat in the bar, relaxed, and missed final call
    5. Dar es Salaam to home via Bahrain: didn’t reconfirm, flight overbooked, had to spend another 3 days in Tanzania before the next flight

    I almost made it 6 on a return from Miami. Sat in the lounge, flight delayed, have a few drinks, then suddenly flight closing. They fitted me on but with a downgrade from business to economy right at the back.

    I've had some very narrow escapes but never actually missed a flight. I'm flying back from the US tonight though, so there's a first time for everything!
    I’ve missed 3:

    1. Lufthansa Frankfurt to London. Arrived at the gate 5 minutes before closing time. Told they had closed the gate early as it was the last flight on Friday and they wanted to get home for the weekend

    2. Lufthansa Frankfurt to Bremen. Overbooked so they bumped me off

    3. Lufthansa London to Dusseldorf - got to the airport and realised I’d left my passport at home

    I no longer fly Lufthansa…
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    edited April 20
    Leon said:

    Anyone moaning about Brexit Britain needs to come to Paris

    I didn't feel safe walking around the Gare du Nord area at night a year ago, something I never feel in London.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Anyone moaning about Brexit Britain needs to come to Paris

    I didn't feel safe walking around the Gare du Nord area at night a year ago, something I never feel in London.
    It’s incredibly run down. This is my first visit since Covid and… wow
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,239

    carnforth said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    OMG these Brexit queues. They are HORRIFIC

    You guys weren’t joking



    I go to St Pancras via HS1 everyday. You lucked out.
    Eurostar have had to cut the number of seats they fill because of the very real queues. There isn't enough physical capacity to add more border gates, so they have jacked up the prices to recoup lost revenue from the 25% or so of seats they cannot sell.

    https://twitter.com/HuwMerriman/status/1574706735415271425
    Eurostar, in 2023, carried as many passengers as it did in 2019, pre-pandemic (and, if you must, pre-brexit).
    Eurostar the channel tunnel operator? Or Eurostar the French transport company formed by merging Eurostar and Thalys?

    Either way, they cannot sell a quarter of seats on every cross channel train they operate because of no capacity at the
    border posts.
    Or may be like the airlines they have cut capacity to maximise load factors and pricing flexibility…
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    And I’m right by the arc de triomphe. Not st denis
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814

    On topic: I note that nearly all the comments here illustrate the argument made in the header.

    There was a discussion earlier of how much benefit fraud there is. I was going to say that there is as much tax avoidance/evasion as benefit fraud, but the Tories don’t like to talk about that… except clearly in Rayner’s case, for once, they do!

    https://fullfact.org/online/benefit-fraud-tax-avoidance-losses/ says £6.4 billion in benefit fraud versus £1.4 billion tax avoidance (legal but against the spirit of the law) + £4.7 tax evasion. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/measuring-tax-gaps/7-tax-gaps-illustrative-tax-gap-by-behaviour goes into more detail and notes various other non-legal avenues of tax being lost.
    TBF that's what they know about, in both instances. And HMRC have been reducing their staff for some time now.

    Certainly there is an, erm, imbalance in current Conservative rhetoric.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,239

    Andy_JS said:

    "Benefits to be axed after a year on the dole to stop it becoming a 'lifestyle choice', Prime Minister announces"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13330045/Benefits-axed-year-stop-lifestyle-choice-Prime-Minister.html

    He really does despise poor people.
    Lots of other countries have time limited benefits. It’s not intrinsically unreasonable
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    It’s amazing what a false impression you get of somewhere from random news reports and occasional articles. I thought Paris was prospering. A new city of bicycles. Spruced up for the Olympics

    It looks like shit. I’ve never seen it looking so bad. It looks like a beautiful wife who has been badly beaten and has now taken to drink
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,213
    Leon said:

    It’s amazing what a false impression you get of somewhere from random news reports and occasional articles. I thought Paris was prospering. A new city of bicycles. Spruced up for the Olympics

    It looks like shit. I’ve never seen it looking so bad. It looks like a beautiful wife who has been badly beaten and has now taken to drink

    Part of the problem is (I think) the segregation of rich and poor in Paris, combined with the driving out (through housing costs) of the working and middle class, to the suburbs.

    London feels, nearly everywhere, to have at least some mixing of different social and cultural groups. Even in the poshest bits of Knightsbridge you still see people who are obviously not rich. And even in the worst areas, it doesn’t feel like a no go zone.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,782
    Leon said:

    Anyone moaning about Brexit Britain needs to come to Paris

    Will be there in June, but have been several times since Brexit. Will be staying in the Latin QTR.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Leon said:

    It’s amazing what a false impression you get of somewhere from random news reports and occasional articles. I thought Paris was prospering. A new city of bicycles. Spruced up for the Olympics

    It looks like shit. I’ve never seen it looking so bad. It looks like a beautiful wife who has been badly beaten and has now taken to drink

    The news media has an agenda. It isn't a planned conspiracy, it is just the aggregate of the biases of a London-based, lefty profession. That's why they blame the current poor economy on Brexit, even though the EU is doing worse - as is shown by your current experience of Paris. Can you remember when we had daily articles about how London was going to lose its financial pre-eminence to Paris because of those thick Leave voters who didn't understand economics? The wealth was going to be sucked out of London and move to the continent.
  • I’m expecting the one year rule to disappear.

    After 12 years of Conservative rule Sunak targeting people on benefits is not that smart. It’s effectively targeting a lot of working people.

    Benefits Claimants and Hard Working Families, there’s a lot of crossover.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,775
    Betting Post

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    F1: not one, not two, but three bets. Although they only count as two because a pair are half-stakes.
    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2024/04/china-pre-race-2024.html

    No prizes for guessing Perez each way (9.5) is one of them, but I've also backed Piastri for a podium at 12 and Norris to win group one (versus the Ferraris and Alonso) at 5.75. The McLaren bets are half-stakes.

    Morris Dancer away!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    It’s amazing what a false impression you get of somewhere from random news reports and occasional articles. I thought Paris was prospering. A new city of bicycles. Spruced up for the Olympics

    It looks like shit. I’ve never seen it looking so bad. It looks like a beautiful wife who has been badly beaten and has now taken to drink

    The news media has an agenda. It isn't a planned conspiracy, it is just the aggregate of the biases of a London-based, lefty profession. That's why they blame the current poor economy on Brexit, even though the EU is doing worse - as is shown by your current experience of Paris. Can you remember when we had daily articles about how London was going to lose its financial pre-eminence to Paris because of those thick Leave voters who didn't understand economics? The wealth was going to be sucked out of London and move to the continent.
    I’ll take a couple of photos to try and capture it. I’m staying in one of the richest arrondissements so it’s not so bad here. And the infernal wintry weather doesn’t help. And they are renovating for the Games. But even here in the wealthiest bit this is the first thing I see outside my hotel




  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    edited April 20

    Leon said:

    It’s amazing what a false impression you get of somewhere from random news reports and occasional articles. I thought Paris was prospering. A new city of bicycles. Spruced up for the Olympics

    It looks like shit. I’ve never seen it looking so bad. It looks like a beautiful wife who has been badly beaten and has now taken to drink

    Part of the problem is (I think) the segregation of rich and poor in Paris, combined with the driving out (through housing costs) of the working and middle class, to the suburbs.

    London feels, nearly everywhere, to have at least some mixing of different social and cultural groups. Even in the poshest bits of Knightsbridge you still see people who are obviously not rich. And even in the worst areas, it doesn’t feel like a no go zone.
    I made a decision to walk through the Thamesmead housing estate a few months ago because it's supposed to be one of the least-safe areas of London. In the event it seemed okay to me, although I wasn't walking through it at night when it may feel different.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    kle4 said:

    Test

    TimS said:

    Raynergate might not be cutting through, but I am sensing restlessness in the remainer camp. There is a tacit contract that rejoiners (who are 60% of the electorate) will vote tory with the prospect of initiating a long term process towards SM an eventually rejoining. But Starmer basically might as well be Farage with good PR when it comes to the EU. If the GE comes and goes and the mask doesn't drop on the EU there will be FURY. My guess is that this very fluid and illoyal electorate will find new pastures. Just to illustrate yougov found that only 12% strongly oppose SM.

    Omnisis/WeThink10-11.4.24Rejoin/Stay Out62/38

    Brexiteerism is a dying movement married to the declining boomer segment. Rejoin enjoud huge majorities in the under 60 year olds. Labour is making a huge error if it remains so rigid on the eu. Everybody i talk to is betting that this brexit kabuki theater from labour is just electoral strategy and will fall away.... it better or labour support will drop like a rock in government.

    I think this is a very important point. I find it hard to believe that the Labour leadership does not understand the depth of anti-Brexit feeling inside the party generally and that this is largely being kept in check by the prospect of power. Should we get a Labour government on the other side of a general election, there will be immense - I think irresistible - pressure to secure a closer relationship with the EU. If Starmer and co seek to hold back the dam, they are going to get overwhelmed. This is so clearly obvious to anyone close to or inside the Labour party that I cannot believe the leadership is unaware. But if it is, it is going to be in for a very big surprise.

    The long game aspects of this are interesting though.

    It’s probably in rejoin’s interests for politicians to be seen to be dragged kicking and screaming by the electorate to something they are nervous about doing.

    I think, sadly, that Starmer’s public position on Brexit is real and he really doesn’t want to reopen the wound. But if Labour got too pushy on rejoin they could bring the cause down with their own popularity when the inevitable fall in polls happened.
    The other thing is the generational dynamics. There is a generation- the same generation- who weren't keen on the EEC in '75 and we're keen on Brexit in '16. And young people aren't becoming more Eurosceptic as they age;

    For those who think the issue of Brexit will go away, the frontier of age/Brexit preferences is steadily shifting in a pro-EU direction - and is likely to continue to do so as a result of population replacement. Data via BESResearch



    https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1777990515360714783

    This isn't about whether they should, who is objectively right and wrong on the merits of Brexit. It's about the vibes, and vibes win. Older people are nostalgic for their youth apart from the EEC, younger people are nostalgic for their youth inside.

    If I'm right, Starmer has to keep away from the wound for the duration of his Premiership. Unpick the worst damage without changing anything drastic. Prepare the path for his successor to make bigger moves.

    (Yes it is the "telling the mad old relative that we wouldn't dream of getting rid of their ghastly heirloom because they'll only kick off" theory of Brexit politics.)



    I think that is right.

    We have so far been sheltered from some of the more inconvenient aspects of Brexit. Rigerous customs inspections of imported consumables and the more stringent immigration checks are either on the way or kicked down the street for later.

    Rejoin is a fantasy.

    Probably in my lifetime, but I wouldn't be surprised you end your days as a citizen of the European Union.

    It might even encompass a defeated and chastened Russia.
    Nurse!!
    As you type away from the safety of your mum's basement, Brexit has doubtlessly not impacted upon you.
    I always feel that that's more of an american expression, as I don't think I know anyone with a basement, seems quite posh.
    They have enough space not to need basements in the US. Except New York
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Leon said:

    Some European temperatures are ten Celsius below normal. Nor is this a tiny blip. This will continue for a week

    Here in Liguria it’s an above average 20C and sunny, although it has to be said that this week’s forecast looks a lot more mixed
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044
    edited April 20
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Anyone moaning about Brexit Britain needs to come to Paris

    Will be there in June, but have been several times since Brexit. Will be staying in the Latin QTR.
    Was in Paris last year for work. It was absolutely delightful. Lovely people, lovely food, lovely atmosphere.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Anyone moaning about Brexit Britain needs to come to Paris

    Will be there in June, but have been several times since Brexit. Will be staying in the Latin QTR.
    Was in Paris last year. It was absolutely delightful. Lovely people, lovely food, lovely atmosphere.
    Yes of course



  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,213
    Carnyx said:

    On topic: I note that nearly all the comments here illustrate the argument made in the header.

    There was a discussion earlier of how much benefit fraud there is. I was going to say that there is as much tax avoidance/evasion as benefit fraud, but the Tories don’t like to talk about that… except clearly in Rayner’s case, for once, they do!

    https://fullfact.org/online/benefit-fraud-tax-avoidance-losses/ says £6.4 billion in benefit fraud versus £1.4 billion tax avoidance (legal but against the spirit of the law) + £4.7 tax evasion. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/measuring-tax-gaps/7-tax-gaps-illustrative-tax-gap-by-behaviour goes into more detail and notes various other non-legal avenues of tax being lost.
    TBF that's what they know about, in both instances. And HMRC have been reducing their staff for some time now.

    Certainly there is an, erm, imbalance in current Conservative rhetoric.
    Tax evasion (just not paying tax) is largely true preserve of the cash in hand, poorly paid. Only the dumb rich don’t get tax advice on tax avoidance. So a crackdown there will be chasing hairdressers and nail bar workers for small amounts.

    Tax avoidance becomes a definition problem - big pension contributions? ISAs? Investment in films that will fail?

    As a financial advisor of my acquaintance put it - he is obliged to tell people to put tons in their pension and get an ISA.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    TimS said:

    kjh said:

    kle4 said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Leon said:

    OMG these Brexit queues. They are HORRIFIC

    You guys weren’t joking



    That’s before the new rules come in .
    Weird how I just keep getting lucky. Yet I travel abroad more than anyone on this forum. Its almost as if all this Brexit delay travel stuff is just bullshit

    I’ve encountered Brexity passport queues twice since Brexit and I travel incessantly
    Firstly travel to a non EU country doesn't count as obviously nothing has changed. So trips to Thailand or USA are unaffected.

    Secondly it has to be an EU airport that is an International hub ie not one that is taking local traffic or mainly UK holidaymakers and nobody else because the situation that causes the problem doesn't arise. So trips to Faro or Alicante are pretty much unaffected except for it being slightly slower.

    However if you go to a main airport and happen to land at the same time as a large flight from the USA or from anywhere outside of the EU you will be stuffed.

    So I have experienced numerous flights to small airports and the USA without any issues at all. However a flight to Lisbon which landed at the same time as two flights from the USA and it was a 3 hour wait to get through passport control. Counting the length and width of the snake I reckon it was 1000 people. All gates were open and they used the EU gate and priority gate as well to clear us. EU citizens just waltzed through the EU gate.
    I travel far more often that you. To the EU and everywhere else

    Since Brexit I have encountered really annoying Brexit related delays (ie an hour+ extra queue) exactly twice. Once in Iceland once in Switzerland (for the reasons you say). And both a while ago

    I’ve had smaller delays - 10-20 minutes - 3 or 4 times and none recently. That’s it. My god. The pain
    Yes I know you do. But you shouldn't have those delays and if you are an infrequent traveller and unlucky it is really annoying. In your case you are taking it with the flow. You travel hugely. You know shit will happen occasionally (usually not Brexit related) and live with it. If you do it once or twice a year and are unlucky and wait 3 hours while you see an empty EU gate you really get pissed.
    Sure, but as one of those people who doesn't travel a lot, is it that big a deal then?
    @leon posted about missing a flight recently from the far east. He took it in his stride as a
    seasoned travel. Imagine if that was your flight back from a 2 week holiday. You would be beside yourself.
    I’ve missed 5 flights in my adult life, which I believe is quite an unusual achievement:

    1. Stansted to Malmo, because of traffic jam on the M11
    2. Paris CDG to home: traffic jam on périphérique
    3. Heathrow to Hamburg: got to the gate and realised I had my sons passport
    4. Schipol to home: delayed flight so sat in the bar, relaxed, and missed final call
    5. Dar es Salaam to home via Bahrain: didn’t reconfirm, flight overbooked, had to spend another 3 days in Tanzania before the next flight

    I almost made it 6 on a return from Miami. Sat in the lounge, flight delayed, have a few drinks, then suddenly flight closing. They fitted me on but with a downgrade from business to economy right at the back.

    I've had some very narrow escapes but never actually missed a flight. I'm flying back from the US tonight though, so there's a first time for everything!
    I’ve missed 3:

    1. Lufthansa Frankfurt to London. Arrived at the gate 5 minutes before closing time. Told they had closed the gate early as it was the last flight on Friday and they wanted to get home for the weekend

    2. Lufthansa Frankfurt to Bremen. Overbooked so they bumped me off

    3. Lufthansa London to Dusseldorf - got to the airport and realised I’d left my passport at home

    I no longer fly Lufthansa…
    I haven't ever missed a flight - but have booked a lot of tickets where I decided not to fly.

    I nearly missed a flight in Stansted a few weeks ago though. Saw the gate came on the screen and went to the toilet and to get a coffee expecting to walk to the gate. However it was in one of the satellite terminals you need to get the train to. The train didn't turn up for 5 minutes, and then took 5 minutes to get to the terminal. Ryanair like to close the gate as quickly as possible so it was close but I made it.

    Historically there was an issue with flying to Helsinki from heathrow on Friday night. There was a Finnair and a BA flight going to helsinki at the same time. Both Finnair and BA confusingly also codeshared the flight. So you could quite easily go to the gate for the wrong flight.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Anyone moaning about Brexit Britain needs to come to Paris

    Will be there in June, but have been several times since Brexit. Will be staying in the Latin QTR.
    Was in Paris last year. It was absolutely delightful. Lovely people, lovely food, lovely atmosphere.
    Yes of course



    Looks like dieting and cutting back on the booze has made you a model of good health.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Anyone moaning about Brexit Britain needs to come to Paris

    Will be there in June, but have been several times since Brexit. Will be staying in the Latin QTR.
    Was in Paris last year. It was absolutely delightful. Lovely people, lovely food, lovely atmosphere.
    Yes of course



    I take your point. You'd never see a beggar like that in London or Tunbridge Wells.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412
    ...
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Test

    TimS said:

    Raynergate might not be cutting through, but I am sensing restlessness in the remainer camp. There is a tacit contract that rejoiners (who are 60% of the electorate) will vote tory with the prospect of initiating a long term process towards SM an eventually rejoining. But Starmer basically might as well be Farage with good PR when it comes to the EU. If the GE comes and goes and the mask doesn't drop on the EU there will be FURY. My guess is that this very fluid and illoyal electorate will find new pastures. Just to illustrate yougov found that only 12% strongly oppose SM.

    Omnisis/WeThink10-11.4.24Rejoin/Stay Out62/38

    Brexiteerism is a dying movement married to the declining boomer segment. Rejoin enjoud huge majorities in the under 60 year olds. Labour is making a huge error if it remains so rigid on the eu. Everybody i talk to is betting that this brexit kabuki theater from labour is just electoral strategy and will fall away.... it better or labour support will drop like a rock in government.

    I think this is a very important point. I find it hard to believe that the Labour leadership does not understand the depth of anti-Brexit feeling inside the party generally and that this is largely being kept in check by the prospect of power. Should we get a Labour government on the other side of a general election, there will be immense - I think irresistible - pressure to secure a closer relationship with the EU. If Starmer and co seek to hold back the dam, they are going to get overwhelmed. This is so clearly obvious to anyone close to or inside the Labour party that I cannot believe the leadership is unaware. But if it is, it is going to be in for a very big surprise.

    The long game aspects of this are interesting though.

    It’s probably in rejoin’s interests for politicians to be seen to be dragged kicking and screaming by the electorate to something they are nervous about doing.

    I think, sadly, that Starmer’s public position on Brexit is real and he really doesn’t want to reopen the wound. But if Labour got too pushy on rejoin they could bring the cause down with their own popularity when the inevitable fall in polls happened.
    The other thing is the generational dynamics. There is a generation- the same generation- who weren't keen on the EEC in '75 and we're keen on Brexit in '16. And young people aren't becoming more Eurosceptic as they age;

    For those who think the issue of Brexit will go away, the frontier of age/Brexit preferences is steadily shifting in a pro-EU direction - and is likely to continue to do so as a result of population replacement. Data via BESResearch



    https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1777990515360714783

    This isn't about whether they should, who is objectively right and wrong on the merits of Brexit. It's about the vibes, and vibes win. Older people are nostalgic for their youth apart from the EEC, younger people are nostalgic for their youth inside.

    If I'm right, Starmer has to keep away from the wound for the duration of his Premiership. Unpick the worst damage without changing anything drastic. Prepare the path for his successor to make bigger moves.

    (Yes it is the "telling the mad old relative that we wouldn't dream of getting rid of their ghastly heirloom because they'll only kick off" theory of Brexit politics.)



    I think that is right.

    We have so far been sheltered from some of the more inconvenient aspects of Brexit. Rigerous customs inspections of imported consumables and the more stringent immigration checks are either on the way or kicked down the street for later.

    Rejoin is a fantasy.

    Probably in my lifetime, but I wouldn't be surprised you end your days as a citizen of the European Union.

    It might even encompass a defeated and chastened Russia.
    Nurse!!
    As you type away from the safety of your mum's basement, Brexit has doubtlessly not impacted upon you.
    I always feel that that's more of an american expression, as I don't think I know anyone with a basement, seems quite posh.
    They have enough space not to need basements in the US. Except New York
    We would have cellars (I don't for the record) not basements.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,620

    NEW THREAD

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Oh dear. The jury foreman imbibes the Daily Mail and Fox News:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68848665

    You forgot to add the fiercely anti Trump NYT 'Juror number one hails from Ireland. The jury foreperson, tasked with overseeing deliberations, he now works in sales and is married. In his spare time, he enjoys anything "outdoorsy", and gets his news from the New York Times, the Daily Mail and Fox News.'

    In fact the most common media mentioned for jurors to read or watch are the NYT followed by CNN, neither of which are pro Trump in any shape or form.

    The case is taking place in Manhattan and Manhattan voted 86% for Biden in 2020, this jury is extremely unlikely to be pro Trump. Indeed the foreman might be the only one on the jury who even considered voting for him looking at the profiles
    I'm happy enough with the Jury as a whole - esp the group description of them as "highly educated" - but that Foreman does give me a queasy feeling. Fox News and the Daily Mail is a worrying combination. I'm hoping he only tunes into those for a giggle (as we all do sometimes).

    Point is, we need 12 out of 12 here. Just the one guy doing a Henry Fonda would ruin things. And the person best placed to try something like that is probably the Foreman. He must be quite assertive to have got the job. Whatever, it's amazing to have finally got a proper criminal trial of Donald Trump up and running and I'm really looking forward to seeing it play out.
    Yes the "problem" isnt that there is a cross section of society its that in this trial you need 12/12 whereas others accept majority verdicts. This is obviously a feature as well as a bug as it reduces the chance of an innocent person being found guilty at the same time as increasing the chance of the guilty getting off. Worth it or not is a matter of preference.
    You can argue the pros and cons in general but for cases against Trump my hard preference is for permissible majority guilty verdict. My (already slim) hopes for this one sank a little further when I saw it had to be unanimous. But let's see. It's a strong case.

    I don't suppose he'll testify?
    Not unless he has gone full gaga.
    Yes, Trump in the dock would be a bloodsport for any good prosecution lawyer.
    Since Trump (no doubt against his own legal advice) seems incapable of stopping himself threatening a judge's relatives, further defaming people he's already been convicted of defaming and generally ignoring direct instructions from judges, might he not be able to resist the temptation of letting the court experience his unique genius? Here's hoping.
    That would be special.

    "Nobody knows more about paying off pornstars than me. It was a perfect payment. Go on, ask me anything. I'm probably the cleverest most unbelievably innocent person ever to appear here. Witchhunt! Witchhunt!"
    In several of his cases he has in essence cut himself off from some potentially viable defences by his insistence on rambling statements. Sam Bankman-Fried faced the same problem, and got 25 years in part as as a result.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Anyone moaning about Brexit Britain needs to come to Paris

    Will be there in June, but have been several times since Brexit. Will be staying in the Latin QTR.
    Was in Paris last year. It was absolutely delightful. Lovely people, lovely food, lovely atmosphere.
    Yes of course



    I take your point. You'd never see a beggar like that in London or Tunbridge Wells.
    Of course not. He'd have a patriotic Brexiteer-style RAF roundel on his pizza box. Not an Armée de l'air cocarde, like this Parisien.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    MattW said:

    kjh said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Leon said:

    OMG these Brexit queues. They are HORRIFIC

    You guys weren’t joking



    That’s before the new rules come in .
    Weird how I just keep getting lucky. Yet I travel abroad more than anyone on this forum. Its almost as if all this Brexit delay travel stuff is just bullshit

    I’ve encountered Brexity passport queues twice since Brexit and I travel incessantly
    Firstly travel to a non EU country doesn't count as obviously nothing has changed. So trips to Thailand or USA are unaffected.

    Secondly it has to be an EU airport that is an International hub ie not one that is taking local traffic or mainly UK holidaymakers and nobody else because the situation that causes the problem doesn't arise. So trips to Faro or Alicante are pretty much unaffected except for it being slightly slower.

    However if you go to a main airport and happen to land at the same time as a large flight from the USA or from anywhere outside of the EU you will be stuffed.

    So I have experienced numerous flights to small airports and the USA without any issues at all. However a flight to Lisbon which landed at the same time as two flights from the USA and it was a 3 hour wait to get through passport control. Counting the length and width of the snake I reckon it was 1000 people. All gates were open and they used the EU gate and priority gate as well to clear us. EU citizens just waltzed through the EU gate.
    I travel far more often that you. To the EU and everywhere else

    Since Brexit I have encountered really annoying Brexit related delays (ie an hour+ extra queue) exactly twice. Once in Iceland once in Switzerland (for the reasons you say). And both a while ago

    I’ve had smaller delays - 10-20 minutes - 3 or 4 times and none recently. That’s it. My god. The pain
    Well if it’s £45bn a year to have @kjh avoid an extra 20 minutes in a queue now and then that has to be value.
    3 hrs and the cost of the unnecessary hotel in Paris every year for my bike trip plus fast processing a vet and pet passport ( not sure that one is possible) and I'll be happy so if you can all chip in for the cost 👍
    Sounds like it's time to do the London Paris by bike run.
    https://london2paris.co.uk/

    This 5x year old lady did London to Sweden bike-packing on a Brompton :smile:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TegW1u_ltsc
    The description associated with that video is quite a good reminder of covid confusion. Long distance trains felt risky but the london to chelmsford train is ok, as were the various ferries?



  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Anyone moaning about Brexit Britain needs to come to Paris

    Will be there in June, but have been several times since Brexit. Will be staying in the Latin QTR.
    Was in Paris last year. It was absolutely delightful. Lovely people, lovely food, lovely atmosphere.
    Yes of course



    I don’t want to set PBers off on one of their hilarious soap dodging Frogs riffs but perhaps Paris should be more proactive like HMG in cleansing the streets of smelly tramps.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Anyone moaning about Brexit Britain needs to come to Paris

    Will be there in June, but have been several times since Brexit. Will be staying in the Latin QTR.
    Was in Paris last year. It was absolutely delightful. Lovely people, lovely food, lovely atmosphere.
    Yes of course



    I take your point. You'd never see a beggar like that in London or Tunbridge Wells.
    I could post 100 photos but I don’t want to spam the site. Honestly it’s shocking. Paris has always had a sketchy side and of course always the horrible suburbs - but the centre was nearly always immaculate. Glorious

    Now there is litter and graffiti everywhere, homeless are frequent, about 1 in 10 shops are shuttered and sometimes derelict (more in bad areas, fewer in good). Perhaps worse is all the broken stuff. Benches and pavements and gardens

    I haven’t been here for at least 5 years. Perhaps that’s why I notice it. Its like visiting a supermodel friend after half a decade to discover she’s on fentanyl and hasn’t had a wash since Christmas
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,782

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Anyone moaning about Brexit Britain needs to come to Paris

    Will be there in June, but have been several times since Brexit. Will be staying in the Latin QTR.
    Was in Paris last year for work. It was absolutely delightful. Lovely people, lovely food, lovely atmosphere.
    I was there last June for my last bike trip. Stayed quite near the Gare du Nord then cycled across Paris the next day and cycled back about 10 days later. It was buzzing. In fact I commented here, because @rcs1000 replied along the lines 'Are you sure you are not in the middle of the riots'. We went to a cheap restaurant and got chatting to people and a bar beforehand and after. All excellent. And ditto for numerous other trips. I regularly pass through and have seen no major changes.

    See Leon has posted a picture of a beggar. I would be gobsmacked if he couldn't do so. I remember taking my son 20 years ago and there were plenty of beggars then.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Anyone moaning about Brexit Britain needs to come to Paris

    Will be there in June, but have been several times since Brexit. Will be staying in the Latin QTR.
    Was in Paris last year. It was absolutely delightful. Lovely people, lovely food, lovely atmosphere.
    Yes of course



    I don’t want to set PBers off on one of their hilarious soap dodging Frogs riffs but perhaps Paris should be more proactive like HMG in cleansing the streets of smelly tramps.

    Unfortunate panda-leaves-shoots type ambiguity in that headline ...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    edited April 20
    edit
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,354
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    We’re off to book a holiday. Appreciate I’m not a posho like many here so we will be limited somewhat by cash but any views on Cape Verde, Lake Garda and Praia Da Rocha ?

    I’m very surprised nobody has responded to this yet. Usually holiday questions get a deluge of advice.

    Maybe like me nobody’s been to either of those 3. I’ve been nearby to Praia da Rocha though and it’s pleasant enough. Not the most exciting. Have wanted to visit Cape Verde for years but never gone, though not the islands that I think have direct flights, Sal and Boa Vista, as they’re deserts.

    An interestingly eclectic selection of 3 destinations!
    I would have replied but I’m on the Eurostar

    I’ve not done Cape Verde but it’s hard to go wrong with lake Garda. One of the most beautiful places on the planet - tho I wouldn’t go in very high season

    Btw the weather in northern France is just as bad as the uk. Ditto the forecast. The incredibly shit
    weather is a Europe wide thing. I’m off to Italy in a couple of weeks and I’ve been checking the weather there. My intended destination is right now 8C

    8C. On the med coast of southern Italy. In late April

    Astonishing. wtf is going on?
    Nearly 20C in SW Ireland yesterday. Sunny and warm again today. You're just on the wrong side of high pressure so benefiting from northerly winds in spring.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311

    Spent the weekend in Singapore, enjoying the convenience of a new MRT line - jolly efficient and well run, with driverless trains, but yea gods the architecture is dire - unimaginative cookie cutter identikit stations. Where’s their Canary Wharf or Westminster station - let alone the new Elizabeth line ones?

    Good old London, all our cash spent there , whilst we have shithole service and staions countrywide
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    We’re off to book a holiday. Appreciate I’m not a posho like many here so we will be limited somewhat by cash but any views on Cape Verde, Lake Garda and Praia Da Rocha ?

    I’m very surprised nobody has responded to this yet. Usually holiday questions get a deluge of advice.

    Maybe like me nobody’s been to either of those 3. I’ve been nearby to Praia da Rocha though and it’s pleasant enough. Not the most exciting. Have wanted to visit Cape Verde for years but never gone, though not the islands that I think have direct flights, Sal and Boa Vista, as they’re deserts.

    An interestingly eclectic selection of 3 destinations!
    I would have replied but I’m on the Eurostar

    I’ve not done Cape Verde but it’s hard to go wrong with lake Garda. One of the most beautiful places on the planet - tho I wouldn’t go in very high season

    Btw the weather in northern France is just as bad as the uk. Ditto the forecast. The incredibly shit
    weather is a Europe wide thing. I’m off to Italy in a couple of weeks and I’ve been checking the weather there. My intended destination is right now 8C

    8C. On the med coast of southern Italy. In late April

    Astonishing. wtf is going on?
    Winter was mild but that might add to the aggravation - the weather has been effectively the same for four months.
    18 months in the uk. Literally. The wettest 18 months in our history

    Everyone in Paris is in winter coats and scarves. April 20
    That is crap I am going there next week
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Anyone moaning about Brexit Britain needs to come to Paris

    Will be there in June, but have been several times since Brexit. Will be staying in the Latin QTR.
    Was in Paris last year for work. It was absolutely delightful. Lovely people, lovely food, lovely atmosphere.
    I was there last June for my last bike trip. Stayed quite near the Gare du Nord then cycled across Paris the next day and cycled back about 10 days later. It was buzzing. In fact I commented here, because @rcs1000 replied along the lines 'Are you sure you are not in the middle of the riots'. We went to a cheap restaurant and got chatting to people and a bar beforehand and after. All excellent. And ditto for numerous other trips. I regularly pass through and have seen no major changes.

    See Leon has posted a picture of a beggar. I would be gobsmacked if he couldn't do so. I remember taking my son 20 years ago and there were plenty of beggars then.
    My experience years ao was they were very polite and only drank their wine from plastic glasses, and never rude when you said you did not understand French etc
This discussion has been closed.