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Housing: Who to blame and the solution – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626
    Scott_xP said:

    @katyballs

    🚨 Sunak to Tory MPs tonight:

    ‘We are in the fight of our lives.

    This battle will define us, when the going got tough, when the polls were against us did we dig deep and fight or did we turn in on ourselves?’

    Narrator: Folks, they turned in on themselves...

    He's supposed to be governing, not fighting.

    Daft as Mordaunt's daft conference speech.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,567
    HYUFD said:

    Hah.


    I wonder what first attracted her to the 49 year old bachelor Marquess she married in 2009, with the castle and estate in Cheshire and country house in Norfolk and £60 million net worth?
    It's a good job that Gingey does not live in Sri Lanka; she'd have a fit.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,249
    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hah.


    I wonder what first attracted her to the 49 year old bachelor Marquess she married in 2009, with the castle and estate in Cheshire and country house in Norfolk and £60 million net worth?
    It's a good job that Gingey does not live in Sri Lanka; she'd have a fit.
    Living in Sin hall at ease?
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,312
    viewcode said:

    Pagan2 said:

    On the subject of the census many 100,000 identify as being a jedi....you really think they believe in the force? Of course not....but you believe everyone who says jew, muslim or christian believes in the beard in the sky

    It always saddens me when people (not you) use their religion as a joke. It should be the most important thing to you, a very personal link and promise to God. Not a casual witticism on a form.

    Which God?
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,844
    viewcode said:

    Pagan2 said:

    On the subject of the census many 100,000 identify as being a jedi....you really think they believe in the force? Of course not....but you believe everyone who says jew, muslim or christian believes in the beard in the sky

    It always saddens me when people (not you) use their religion as a joke. It should be the most important thing to you, a very personal link and promise to God. Not a casual witticism on a form.

    You I think misunderstand it, I think a lot of questions about faith and sexuality on the census are intrusive and a lot of people think they are private matters that the state should not know about. For example I can imagine jews being wary as nazi germany certainly used census data to decide who needed to go on a train ride. Therefore they either don't answer or put down a joke answer.
  • Options
    He’s back to change candidate again.

    He is utterly utterly useless. He might actually be the most unskilled PM we’ve ever had!
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,794
    edited March 20

    viewcode said:

    Pagan2 said:

    On the subject of the census many 100,000 identify as being a jedi....you really think they believe in the force? Of course not....but you believe everyone who says jew, muslim or christian believes in the beard in the sky

    It always saddens me when people (not you) use their religion as a joke. It should be the most important thing to you, a very personal link and promise to God. Not a casual witticism on a form.

    Which God?
    😃 😃 😃
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,272

    He’s back to change candidate again.

    He is utterly utterly useless. He might actually be the most unskilled PM we’ve ever had!

    Liz Truss.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,541
    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Good. Fucking disgraceful

    If you want to live in an Islamic theocracy go live in Iran or Saudi
    Yep. If we'd have let that go it would have been sharia law at the Old Bailey by Christmas. Except there wouldn't be a Christmas.
    How far do you reckon we'd get if we suggested NR put some atheist messaging up in the name of inclusion? Yet surely atheists still outnumber Muslims.
    In the UK, for the moment, maybe. Globally they certainly don't.

    Over 50% in the UK still believe in the God of Abraham too, combining Christians, Muslims and Jews
    That doesn't mean "He" actually exists!
    I do not for a moment believe that 50% of the country is muslim, jewish or christians and actuallly believes in their god
    On the last census 46% in England and Wales said they were Christian, 37% non religious, 6.5% Muslim and 0.5% Jewish
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/culturalidentity/religion/bulletins/religionenglandandwales/census2021
    My father would put christian on the census he is a total atheist the census is worthless
    Some of the non religious would also be agnostics, not outright atheists
    A small point but FWIW everyone without exception is agnostic. What is true or untrue about God/no god and all that is not a knowable item.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,249
    Speaking of which, I have confidently predicted that Red Bull will fire Verstappen rather than risk losing face over Horner. Everybody is therefore advised to pile on any market offering Horner to be sacked by Easter.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,794
    Pagan2 said:

    viewcode said:

    Pagan2 said:

    On the subject of the census many 100,000 identify as being a jedi....you really think they believe in the force? Of course not....but you believe everyone who says jew, muslim or christian believes in the beard in the sky

    It always saddens me when people (not you) use their religion as a joke. It should be the most important thing to you, a very personal link and promise to God. Not a casual witticism on a form.

    You I think misunderstand it, I think a lot of questions about faith and sexuality on the census are intrusive and a lot of people think they are private matters that the state should not know about. For example I can imagine jews being wary as nazi germany certainly used census data to decide who needed to go on a train ride. Therefore they either don't answer or put down a joke answer.
    Leaving it blank is understandable. Putting a joke response is rude and silly and unnecessary.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,272
    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Good. Fucking disgraceful

    If you want to live in an Islamic theocracy go live in Iran or Saudi
    Yep. If we'd have let that go it would have been sharia law at the Old Bailey by Christmas. Except there wouldn't be a Christmas.
    How far do you reckon we'd get if we suggested NR put some atheist messaging up in the name of inclusion? Yet surely atheists still outnumber Muslims.
    In the UK, for the moment, maybe. Globally they certainly don't.

    Over 50% in the UK still believe in the God of Abraham too, combining Christians, Muslims and Jews
    That doesn't mean "He" actually exists!
    I do not for a moment believe that 50% of the country is muslim, jewish or christians and actuallly believes in their god
    On the last census 46% in England and Wales said they were Christian, 37% non religious, 6.5% Muslim and 0.5% Jewish
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/culturalidentity/religion/bulletins/religionenglandandwales/census2021
    My father would put christian on the census he is a total atheist the census is worthless
    Some of the non religious would also be agnostics, not outright atheists
    A small point but FWIW everyone without exception is agnostic. What is true or untrue about God/no god and all that is not a knowable item.
    That's the point about belief, which is what distinguishes people with belief from agnostics.
  • Options
    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Agree about the NIMBYS but we also need to deal with one of the biggest obstacles to housebuilding - the building firms.

    How can it be acceptable that last year, when prices stopped rising as sharply as they had been, the big developers cut back on their building programmes specificaly citing the platauing of house prices?

    https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-13052563/Housebuilders-cut-Number-new-homes-planned-fell-44-year.html

    Housebuilders are sitting on hundredas of thousands of plots with planning permission and are refusing to build on them.

    That, and the regulation of new builds is almost non-existent. If you're lucky you get a structurally sound ludicrously expensive rabbit hutch out of your typical volume housebuilder. If you're unlucky the thing is full of serious faults that they don't want to spend money putting right and, as many horrified buyers have quickly discovered, they don't want to do the work and you can do nothing more than beg to get them to do it. The NHBC certificate is worthless.

    Personally, I wouldn't buy a new build under any circumstances. Not good value, not worth the risk.
    We bought new build Barrett in 2005 and we got a good one. Garden full of rubble with major drainage issues. Wall cavities not full of insulation as supposed to be. Cracks in wall and ceiling plaster as the building settled.

    Then we had a hole open up in the downstairs ceiling right above the front door. Just as it was on sale with people coming for viewings. And - having had conversations with various neighbours - we appear to have got a good one!

    Never again.
    Standards have clearly deteriorated over time. My flat was built about 20 years ago and, apart from a little bit of plaster cracking and the windows being a little on the cheap side, it's fine.

    Nowadays you can barely move for tales of wonky walls and collapsed ceilings. There was even a case in Cambridge recently where the shysters built houses that started falling down before they'd finished building them. Those got torn down, but you bet if they could've disguised the problems with plaster and paint they would've flogged them off.
    What's insane is that standards have gotten worse, as costs and regulation have risen.
    Many objections to new housing would disappear is they weren’t so horrendously ugly. Vile redbrick warts all over our fair land

    Build nice Georgian terraces or Victorian semis with proper windows and build them with gentle density - four or five storeys

    Make them handsome and make sure there is infrastructure and community - pubs and shops that are walkable - not soulless Barratt bart-burbs based on the car
    It would help, but given the types of objection many raise which have nothing to do with appearance and character, and more to do with principle or separate material matters, it wouldn't make that much difference.

    The infrastructure point would remove many more - some objections are because people genuinely don't know that contributions from the development may well address those concerns - but given that people also object to infrastructure and amenity changes, I wouldn't bet a non-existent house on it.
    Except contributions from development notoriously don't address those concerns. One of the big problems with Barts loony plans for getting rid of planning is that part of that planning is making developers make contibutions towards servcies. It is a failing system which needs reform but not abolition. Indeed we need more power to force developers to properly fund services - particularly GPs and schools.

    Bart's issue with planning is he fundementally misunderstands what it is and what it does. He wrongly sees it as the main impediment to building (it isn't) and thinks that by sweeping it away things will magically get better and we will get more houses built (we won't).

    The idea that freeing up more land for building will get more houses built is a fallacy. As I have pointed out before available land with planning permission far outstrips the number of houses being built and the gap has widened every year for the last decade or more.
    Why should housebuilders, any more than candlestick makers, be required to fund schools and bits of the NHS? This is a tax payer liability; housebuilders provide a service, the growing population they serve is a direct result of government migration policy, and the consequences are a state liability.
    Because ever since Thatcher we have worked on the principle of 'polluter pays'. Local councils cannot control how many houses are built in their area - this is assigned from central government. But central Government is not willing to pay for all the costs of the services associated with all the new building. So if they will not pay and the local councils cannot pay then it is down to the company actually making the profit to pay.
    But it's not pollution.

    Population growth is not due to construction. Healthcare demand, school demand, none of it comes from construction. Fail to build sufficient houses (as we have) and demand is still there.

    Demand comes from population growth, not housing growth. You want to tax the "polluter" then fine, but construction is not it. It's a response to population growth, not it's cause.
    This feels like undergrad economic theory (and that isn’t intended as a compliment).

    On one level you’re right. But in practice houses without adequate services are a significant part of why Britain feels so broken at the moment.

    House building generates externalities. Wishing those away is not good policy.
    What externalities?

    Name one single externality that isn't due to population growth instead.

    Children need schools whether they live in a home with their parents, or are crammed into a single room with their parents in someone else's home.

    People need healthcare whether they have a home of their own, or are in a room in someone else's home.
    It’s not that it’s not due to population growth, it’s that that growth is unevenly distributed. You can’t just move a school or GP surgery because the kids crammed into existing housing move to a new build 20 miles away.
    So why shouldn't central government which is taking the taxes from migrants (and everyone else) for that matter pay for the new schools and GP surgeries?

    Central government issues the visas that cause population growth.
    Central government takes their income tax.
    Central government takes their national insurance.
    Central government takes the VAT.
    Central government takes duties.

    Why should it not use its funds to pay for the externalities of its choices?
    As I’ve already said, on one level I agree with what you are saying.

    But you’re still like the economist who prefers his theory over reality.

    There is currently no money for central government to provide adequate services.

    At the same time there is market failure in the housing market such that big developers can make significant profit building fairly crap homes. Forcing the developers to also pay for services intervenes to address that market failure in a pretty blunt way, but it seems like the least worst option at the moment.

    And it’s not a tax on new homeowners. You can bet that those new builds will be priced at whatever the market can bear regardless, so this isn’t a cost that will be passed onto buyers. Instead it is bringing private profit back into the public sphere. Which is a good thing right now given how broken our public services are.
    There is a shortfall of housing and your solution is to tax housing. That makes the problem worse not better.

    That's like saying there's a shortfall of dentistry, so the solution is to tax dentists more in response.

    We need millions more houses. Free the market and allow construction to happen and we can solve it.

    Central government needs to own up to the consequences of its policies. If it gives millions of visas that's perfectly fine but then it needs to pay for the infrastructure, not expect young people buying a house to pay for its choices.
    We need millions more houses. 100% agree.

    But if those houses are built without adequate services and infrastructure we will simply create another problem, just as significant for the future prosperity of the country.

    So the services are needed. If there is a better solution than making developers contribute to paying for them I’m all ears. But I haven’t heard one so far.

    And I’m not at all convinced that this tax on housing is the bottleneck in the supply.
    I've given you a better solution.

    The government that takes the taxes and issues the visas pays its own way, from the taxes it takes which are levied on the people it issued the visas too and everyone else.

    What do we pay our taxes for, if not investment in public services?

    If the Government won't pay for the investment population growth requires then it shouldn't issue the visas. But it can, from the taxes it levies on those it issued the visas too and others.

    It not wanting to is a different matter.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626
    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Is that...real? I mean it isn't a spoof or anything?
    So I’m currently writing a paper on some research I have been getting my group to do, involving anti cancer properties from some novel capsaicinoids (think capsaicin and other compounds from chillies, but made more potent by modifications). I did my lit review last week, found around 15 papers that looked relevant for the background/intro and then screened them down to 6 which are relevant.
    I then played with Chatgpt. It produced a thousand words of fluff around the subject. No detail, no references, no actual science. I can see why it scares the crap out of our resident journalist - it seems competent at spitting out fluff already. But for serious scientific argument? I could use the basic structure and modify, but to be honest I wrote the draft intro over a couple of hours and it includes around twenty accurate citations.
    It may (and surely will get better). But at the moment it’s miles away from replacing me (long may that continue…)
    Claude 3 is significantly better than ChatGPT. And GPT4 - which is the basis of ChatGPT - will likely be superseded this summer by GPT5. Which some claim is a huge leap in capability, some even claim it is AGI

    It’s coming
    Will Claude 4 run the Labour Party ?
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,844
    viewcode said:

    Pagan2 said:

    viewcode said:

    Pagan2 said:

    On the subject of the census many 100,000 identify as being a jedi....you really think they believe in the force? Of course not....but you believe everyone who says jew, muslim or christian believes in the beard in the sky

    It always saddens me when people (not you) use their religion as a joke. It should be the most important thing to you, a very personal link and promise to God. Not a casual witticism on a form.

    You I think misunderstand it, I think a lot of questions about faith and sexuality on the census are intrusive and a lot of people think they are private matters that the state should not know about. For example I can imagine jews being wary as nazi germany certainly used census data to decide who needed to go on a train ride. Therefore they either don't answer or put down a joke answer.
    Leaving it blank is understandable. Putting a joke response is rude and silly and unnecessary.
    Why is it? For example I have never filled in a census form as I find all of it intrusive. I could have equally just done it and filled every question in with crap. Both are an equal response to express mind your own fucking business
  • Options
    viewcode said:

    Pagan2 said:

    On the subject of the census many 100,000 identify as being a jedi....you really think they believe in the force? Of course not....but you believe everyone who says jew, muslim or christian believes in the beard in the sky

    It always saddens me when people (not you) use their religion as a joke. It should be the most important thing to you, a very personal link and promise to God. Not a casual witticism on a form.

    Or it should be a joke as people have moved on from sky fairies.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,283

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Good. Fucking disgraceful

    If you want to live in an Islamic theocracy go live in Iran or Saudi
    Yep. If we'd have let that go it would have been sharia law at the Old Bailey by Christmas. Except there wouldn't be a Christmas.
    How far do you reckon we'd get if we suggested NR put some atheist messaging up in the name of inclusion? Yet surely atheists still outnumber Muslims.
    In the UK, for the moment, maybe. Globally they certainly don't.

    Over 50% in the UK still believe in the God of Abraham too, combining Christians, Muslims and Jews
    That doesn't mean "He" actually exists!
    I do not for a moment believe that 50% of the country is muslim, jewish or christians and actuallly believes in their god
    On the last census 46% in England and Wales said they were Christian, 37% non religious, 6.5% Muslim and 0.5% Jewish
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/culturalidentity/religion/bulletins/religionenglandandwales/census2021
    My father would put christian on the census he is a total atheist the census is worthless
    Some of the non religious would also be agnostics, not outright atheists
    A small point but FWIW everyone without exception is agnostic. What is true or untrue about God/no god and all that is not a knowable item.
    That's the point about belief, which is what distinguishes people with belief from agnostics.
    Some people will believe anything.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,997
    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Good. Fucking disgraceful

    If you want to live in an Islamic theocracy go live in Iran or Saudi
    Yep. If we'd have let that go it would have been sharia law at the Old Bailey by Christmas. Except there wouldn't be a Christmas.
    How far do you reckon we'd get if we suggested NR put some atheist messaging up in the name of inclusion? Yet surely atheists still outnumber Muslims.
    In the UK, for the moment, maybe. Globally they certainly don't.

    Over 50% in the UK still believe in the God of Abraham too, combining Christians, Muslims and Jews
    That doesn't mean "He" actually exists!
    I do not for a moment believe that 50% of the country is muslim, jewish or christians and actuallly believes in their god
    On the last census 46% in England and Wales said they were Christian, 37% non religious, 6.5% Muslim and 0.5% Jewish
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/culturalidentity/religion/bulletins/religionenglandandwales/census2021
    My father would put christian on the census he is a total atheist the census is worthless
    Some of the non religious would also be agnostics, not outright atheists
    A small point but FWIW everyone without exception is agnostic. What is true or untrue about God/no god and all that is not a knowable item.
    That's the point about belief, which is what distinguishes people with belief from agnostics.
    Some people will believe anything.
    MAGA for example.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,272
    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Good. Fucking disgraceful

    If you want to live in an Islamic theocracy go live in Iran or Saudi
    Yep. If we'd have let that go it would have been sharia law at the Old Bailey by Christmas. Except there wouldn't be a Christmas.
    How far do you reckon we'd get if we suggested NR put some atheist messaging up in the name of inclusion? Yet surely atheists still outnumber Muslims.
    In the UK, for the moment, maybe. Globally they certainly don't.

    Over 50% in the UK still believe in the God of Abraham too, combining Christians, Muslims and Jews
    That doesn't mean "He" actually exists!
    I do not for a moment believe that 50% of the country is muslim, jewish or christians and actuallly believes in their god
    On the last census 46% in England and Wales said they were Christian, 37% non religious, 6.5% Muslim and 0.5% Jewish
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/culturalidentity/religion/bulletins/religionenglandandwales/census2021
    My father would put christian on the census he is a total atheist the census is worthless
    Some of the non religious would also be agnostics, not outright atheists
    A small point but FWIW everyone without exception is agnostic. What is true or untrue about God/no god and all that is not a knowable item.
    That's the point about belief, which is what distinguishes people with belief from agnostics.
    Some people will believe anything.
    There's not much reasoning to be done with deeply-held beliefs.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,726
    edited March 20
    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Agree about the NIMBYS but we also need to deal with one of the biggest obstacles to housebuilding - the building firms.

    How can it be acceptable that last year, when prices stopped rising as sharply as they had been, the big developers cut back on their building programmes specificaly citing the platauing of house prices?

    https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-13052563/Housebuilders-cut-Number-new-homes-planned-fell-44-year.html

    Housebuilders are sitting on hundredas of thousands of plots with planning permission and are refusing to build on them.

    That, and the regulation of new builds is almost non-existent. If you're lucky you get a structurally sound ludicrously expensive rabbit hutch out of your typical volume housebuilder. If you're unlucky the thing is full of serious faults that they don't want to spend money putting right and, as many horrified buyers have quickly discovered, they don't want to do the work and you can do nothing more than beg to get them to do it. The NHBC certificate is worthless.

    Personally, I wouldn't buy a new build under any circumstances. Not good value, not worth the risk.
    We bought new build Barrett in 2005 and we got a good one. Garden full of rubble with major drainage issues. Wall cavities not full of insulation as supposed to be. Cracks in wall and ceiling plaster as the building settled.

    Then we had a hole open up in the downstairs ceiling right above the front door. Just as it was on sale with people coming for viewings. And - having had conversations with various neighbours - we appear to have got a good one!

    Never again.
    Standards have clearly deteriorated over time. My flat was built about 20 years ago and, apart from a little bit of plaster cracking and the windows being a little on the cheap side, it's fine.

    Nowadays you can barely move for tales of wonky walls and collapsed ceilings. There was even a case in Cambridge recently where the shysters built houses that started falling down before they'd finished building them. Those got torn down, but you bet if they could've disguised the problems with plaster and paint they would've flogged them off.
    What's insane is that standards have gotten worse, as costs and regulation have risen.
    Many objections to new housing would disappear is they weren’t so horrendously ugly. Vile redbrick warts all over our fair land

    Build nice Georgian terraces or Victorian semis with proper windows and build them with gentle density - four or five storeys

    Make them handsome and make sure there is infrastructure and community - pubs and shops that are walkable - not soulless Barratt bart-burbs based on the car
    It would help, but given the types of objection many raise which have nothing to do with appearance and character, and more to do with principle or separate material matters, it wouldn't make that much difference.

    The infrastructure point would remove many more - some objections are because people genuinely don't know that contributions from the development may well address those concerns - but given that people also object to infrastructure and amenity changes, I wouldn't bet a non-existent house on it.
    Except contributions from development notoriously don't address those concerns. One of the big problems with Barts loony plans for getting rid of planning is that part of that planning is making developers make contibutions towards servcies. It is a failing system which needs reform but not abolition. Indeed we need more power to force developers to properly fund services - particularly GPs and schools.

    Bart's issue with planning is he fundementally misunderstands what it is and what it does. He wrongly sees it as the main impediment to building (it isn't) and thinks that by sweeping it away things will magically get better and we will get more houses built (we won't).

    The idea that freeing up more land for building will get more houses built is a fallacy. As I have pointed out before available land with planning permission far outstrips the number of houses being built and the gap has widened every year for the last decade or more.
    Why should housebuilders, any more than candlestick makers, be required to fund schools and bits of the NHS? This is a tax payer liability; housebuilders provide a service, the growing population they serve is a direct result of government migration policy, and the consequences are a state liability.
    Because ever since Thatcher we have worked on the principle of 'polluter pays'. Local councils cannot control how many houses are built in their area - this is assigned from central government. But central Government is not willing to pay for all the costs of the services associated with all the new building. So if they will not pay and the local councils cannot pay then it is down to the company actually making the profit to pay.
    But it's not pollution.

    Population growth is not due to construction. Healthcare demand, school demand, none of it comes from construction. Fail to build sufficient houses (as we have) and demand is still there.

    Demand comes from population growth, not housing growth. You want to tax the "polluter" then fine, but construction is not it. It's a response to population growth, not it's cause.
    The average number of square metres of accommodation per person obviously impacts the consumption of resources. If everyone has their own detached house then they will burn more energy than if they live two to a room.
    Which is why people can, should and do pay for their own energy.

    That has bugger all to do with school demand, NHS demand etc which are all based on population not the quantity of houses.
    There's a difference between national demand and local demand. Are you proposing that all new development be ringfenced so that only locals can live there to ensure the impact on local services is neutral?
    No there is not. We have a free country, people are free to demand anywhere in the country.

    I propose the taxpayer pays for school and healthcare in this countrry. The taxpayer also pays taxes to HMG.

    You want polluter pays then fine - population growth is the consequence of central government policy. If new schools or healthcare is needed, due to central government policy, then central government should pay for it. Its the one that sets the migration policy and takes the taxes, it should pay for its own externality. Polluter pays.

    Construction is not the cause of population growth.
    The bit in bold is precisely the point. If there's a new development of 10,000 homes next to a village in the Cotswolds, it will obviously impact demand for local services.
    Then central government should pay for it.

    Its the one that takes the taxes and lets people into the county.

    I've got no problem with migration into the country, but the government that sets the policy and takes the taxes needs to account for both sides of the ledger.
    The point you keep missing is that it's perfectly legitimate for local people to say "not in my back yard".
    Why is it?
    QED

    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Agree about the NIMBYS but we also need to deal with one of the biggest obstacles to housebuilding - the building firms.

    How can it be acceptable that last year, when prices stopped rising as sharply as they had been, the big developers cut back on their building programmes specificaly citing the platauing of house prices?

    https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-13052563/Housebuilders-cut-Number-new-homes-planned-fell-44-year.html

    Housebuilders are sitting on hundredas of thousands of plots with planning permission and are refusing to build on them.

    That, and the regulation of new builds is almost non-existent. If you're lucky you get a structurally sound ludicrously expensive rabbit hutch out of your typical volume housebuilder. If you're unlucky the thing is full of serious faults that they don't want to spend money putting right and, as many horrified buyers have quickly discovered, they don't want to do the work and you can do nothing more than beg to get them to do it. The NHBC certificate is worthless.

    Personally, I wouldn't buy a new build under any circumstances. Not good value, not worth the risk.
    We bought new build Barrett in 2005 and we got a good one. Garden full of rubble with major drainage issues. Wall cavities not full of insulation as supposed to be. Cracks in wall and ceiling plaster as the building settled.

    Then we had a hole open up in the downstairs ceiling right above the front door. Just as it was on sale with people coming for viewings. And - having had conversations with various neighbours - we appear to have got a good one!

    Never again.
    Standards have clearly deteriorated over time. My flat was built about 20 years ago and, apart from a little bit of plaster cracking and the windows being a little on the cheap side, it's fine.

    Nowadays you can barely move for tales of wonky walls and collapsed ceilings. There was even a case in Cambridge recently where the shysters built houses that started falling down before they'd finished building them. Those got torn down, but you bet if they could've disguised the problems with plaster and paint they would've flogged them off.
    What's insane is that standards have gotten worse, as costs and regulation have risen.
    Many objections to new housing would disappear is they weren’t so horrendously ugly. Vile redbrick warts all over our fair land

    Build nice Georgian terraces or Victorian semis with proper windows and build them with gentle density - four or five storeys

    Make them handsome and make sure there is infrastructure and community - pubs and shops that are walkable - not soulless Barratt bart-burbs based on the car
    It would help, but given the types of objection many raise which have nothing to do with appearance and character, and more to do with principle or separate material matters, it wouldn't make that much difference.

    The infrastructure point would remove many more - some objections are because people genuinely don't know that contributions from the development may well address those concerns - but given that people also object to infrastructure and amenity changes, I wouldn't bet a non-existent house on it.
    Except contributions from development notoriously don't address those concerns. One of the big problems with Barts loony plans for getting rid of planning is that part of that planning is making developers make contibutions towards servcies. It is a failing system which needs reform but not abolition. Indeed we need more power to force developers to properly fund services - particularly GPs and schools.

    Bart's issue with planning is he fundementally misunderstands what it is and what it does. He wrongly sees it as the main impediment to building (it isn't) and thinks that by sweeping it away things will magically get better and we will get more houses built (we won't).

    The idea that freeing up more land for building will get more houses built is a fallacy. As I have pointed out before available land with planning permission far outstrips the number of houses being built and the gap has widened every year for the last decade or more.
    Why should housebuilders, any more than candlestick makers, be required to fund schools and bits of the NHS? This is a tax payer liability; housebuilders provide a service, the growing population they serve is a direct result of government migration policy, and the consequences are a state liability.
    Because ever since Thatcher we have worked on the principle of 'polluter pays'. Local councils cannot control how many houses are built in their area - this is assigned from central government. But central Government is not willing to pay for all the costs of the services associated with all the new building. So if they will not pay and the local councils cannot pay then it is down to the company actually making the profit to pay.
    But it's not pollution.

    Population growth is not due to construction. Healthcare demand, school demand, none of it comes from construction. Fail to build sufficient houses (as we have) and demand is still there.

    Demand comes from population growth, not housing growth. You want to tax the "polluter" then fine, but construction is not it. It's a response to population growth, not it's cause.
    The average number of square metres of accommodation per person obviously impacts the consumption of resources. If everyone has their own detached house then they will burn more energy than if they live two to a room.
    Which is why people can, should and do pay for their own energy.

    That has bugger all to do with school demand, NHS demand etc which are all based on population not the quantity of houses.
    There's a difference between national demand and local demand. Are you proposing that all new development be ringfenced so that only locals can live there to ensure the impact on local services is neutral?
    No there is not. We have a free country, people are free to demand anywhere in the country.

    I propose the taxpayer pays for school and healthcare in this countrry. The taxpayer also pays taxes to HMG.

    You want polluter pays then fine - population growth is the consequence of central government policy. If new schools or healthcare is needed, due to central government policy, then central government should pay for it. Its the one that sets the migration policy and takes the taxes, it should pay for its own externality. Polluter pays.

    Construction is not the cause of population growth.
    The bit in bold is precisely the point. If there's a new development of 10,000 homes next to a village in the Cotswolds, it will obviously impact demand for local services.
    Then central government should pay for it.

    Its the one that takes the taxes and lets people into the county.

    I've got no problem with migration into the country, but the government that sets the policy and takes the taxes needs to account for both sides of the ledger.
    The point you keep missing is that it's perfectly legitimate for local people to say "not in my back yard".
    Why is it?
    QED
    That's not an argument.

    If its literally their backyard, they own it, they can veto people building on land they own.

    If its not, its none of their bloody business.

    In Japan NIMBYs have no more input whether their neighbours can build a home than they do whether their neighbours go to McDonalds, or the cinema, or buy a candlestick or anything else.

    Because, again, its none of their bloody business.
    There are restricted zones of development in Japan which control what can be built there. 'If you are planning to purchase real estate properties or to build new homes in Japan, it is recommended that you understand Land Use Zones and the details of all the categories, because the neighborhood environment and what you can build may be different in each Land Use Zone.'
    https://www.realestate-tokyo.com/news/land-use-zones-in-japan/
    Yes, they have a zonal system with codes.

    Hence why I've been advocating we abolish our planning system and switch to zonal with codes instead.

    You pointing out the nation with a zoning system that I've been calling for and using as an example of a model that works, has a zoning system, is not news to me.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,541

    viewcode said:

    Pagan2 said:

    On the subject of the census many 100,000 identify as being a jedi....you really think they believe in the force? Of course not....but you believe everyone who says jew, muslim or christian believes in the beard in the sky

    It always saddens me when people (not you) use their religion as a joke. It should be the most important thing to you, a very personal link and promise to God. Not a casual witticism on a form.

    Which God?
    The word 'God' used in that context and with a capital 'G' refers to the commonly held belief that there is and can be only a maximum of one such God, and that this fact is part of the definition. To ask 'which God' is even more redundant than asking which Sunak is currently PM of the UK. This is of course consistent with there being zero instead of one, which is perfectly possible though personally I don't think that is the case.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,567
    edited March 20

    Jonn Elledge on that Guardian housing article: https://jonn.substack.com/p/were-all-looking-for-the-guy-who

    The Guardian piece is a steaming pile of crud, to the extent that I just can't be bothered to demolish it. It's self-collapsing, like a speculatively-built Georgian house :smile: .

    He doesn't make any argument, never mind a coherent one.

    Never give a spreadsheet to a barrister who wants to troll Guardianistas into buying the book he's launching next week ...
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,844

    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Good. Fucking disgraceful

    If you want to live in an Islamic theocracy go live in Iran or Saudi
    Yep. If we'd have let that go it would have been sharia law at the Old Bailey by Christmas. Except there wouldn't be a Christmas.
    How far do you reckon we'd get if we suggested NR put some atheist messaging up in the name of inclusion? Yet surely atheists still outnumber Muslims.
    In the UK, for the moment, maybe. Globally they certainly don't.

    Over 50% in the UK still believe in the God of Abraham too, combining Christians, Muslims and Jews
    That doesn't mean "He" actually exists!
    I do not for a moment believe that 50% of the country is muslim, jewish or christians and actuallly believes in their god
    On the last census 46% in England and Wales said they were Christian, 37% non religious, 6.5% Muslim and 0.5% Jewish
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/culturalidentity/religion/bulletins/religionenglandandwales/census2021
    My father would put christian on the census he is a total atheist the census is worthless
    Some of the non religious would also be agnostics, not outright atheists
    A small point but FWIW everyone without exception is agnostic. What is true or untrue about God/no god and all that is not a knowable item.
    That's the point about belief, which is what distinguishes people with belief from agnostics.
    Some people will believe anything.
    There's not much reasoning to be done with deeply-held beliefs.
    I don't agree some beliefs welcome questioning and they don't expect others to live up to the standards set by their beliefs. These are benign beliefs.

    Alternatively there are beliefs that don't welcome questioning and think everyone should have to comply to their standards. These are malign beliefs

    There is a huge difference
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,632
    Pagan2 said:

    kjh said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kjh said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kjh said:

    Pagan2 said:

    viewcode said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    @MarqueeMark it wouldn't surprise me if Totnes became a three-way marginal

    Strictly speaking there isn’t going to be a Totnes constituency any more. It is being subsumed by South Devon. But Electoral Calculus agrees with you: 37% Cons, 32% Lab, 31% LibDem.

    I’m in the neighbouring Newton Abbot constituency and under the boundary changes it is a lot more marginal. A quite plausible Lab GAIN. I’d be delighted to see Anne Morris get the boot.
    Clearly a seat that needs a steer on tactical voting.
    I don’t think the outcome of the general election is going to be determined by tactical voting. Tories lose, Labour win. More or less tactical voting may effect the majority, but polling doesn’t suggest that tactics voting is critical.
    The extent of tactical voting is important only for those of us betting on LibDem seat numbers.
    May I inquire why @Truman was banned?

    Asking for a friend

    He was fun and interesting. Sure he was provocative and right wing and possibly pro-Putin (tho quite subtle about it) - I can see why his views might have outraged people, but then @148grss views are outrageous to me, but I don’t want him cancelled, quite the opposite

    However I expect you have a solid moderators’ reason for cancelling him, and if so fair enuff
    I didn't ban him, so I don't know.
    I just want reassurance people aren’t being banned for provocative opinions.
    You must be new here.

    That reassurance doesn't exist. As @RodCrosby , @isam and @MrEd can testify, having provocative opinions is pretty much the only thing that gets you reliably banned. PB operates on pub rules: if it pisses @OGH or his helpers off you get thrown out. If you want to complain that you are being cancelled I understand that the Spectator pays complainants to complain about viscious[1] things on Twitter.

    [1] Yes I know it's "vicious". But Rob Liddle is really oily and oozes dribble, so, y'know...
    I could point out many seem to feel my opinions are provocative yet I am still here
    Provocative but always interesting and that is coming from a LD whom I know you hate.
    I don't hate lib dems I merely said it was the only party I would vote to keep out, not the same thing
    Badly worded by me. I always get the impression we would get on. I know I could never convert you, but I feel I could make you less anti.
    My problem with your party is merely one of honesty, your candidates come across as we will say what we need to get elected and then do what we want when elected. All politicians do it however your party seems completely fine with candidates giving different messages in different constituencies as long as they get voted in. At least other parties get there candidates to mostly sell a common view.
    I would like to discuss with you, but don't have time at the moment, but I disagree and I'm happy to at a later date. It is an accusations often put to the LDs. One of the issues, particularly in the past was the Liberals had a wide spectrum of seats unlike other parties. The priorities in Bermondsey are very different to Richmond or St Ives. The basic philosophy though is the same throughout. I would be amazed if you couldn't find some hypocrisy, but generally they are pretty consistent.
    Welcome to dm me so we can discuss at leisure
    Cheers. Worth doing here as others will I am sure agree with you - you definitely aren't alone in your view. Just very busy at present.

    On the general topic of being controversial though - keep it up. I enjoy your posts, even the ones I disagree with. They are often thought provoking.
  • Options
    maxhmaxh Posts: 825

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Agree about the NIMBYS but we also need to deal with one of the biggest obstacles to housebuilding - the building firms.

    How can it be acceptable that last year, when prices stopped rising as sharply as they had been, the big developers cut back on their building programmes specificaly citing the platauing of house prices?

    https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-13052563/Housebuilders-cut-Number-new-homes-planned-fell-44-year.html

    Housebuilders are sitting on hundredas of thousands of plots with planning permission and are refusing to build on them.

    That, and the regulation of new builds is almost non-existent. If you're lucky you get a structurally sound ludicrously expensive rabbit hutch out of your typical volume housebuilder. If you're unlucky the thing is full of serious faults that they don't want to spend money putting right and, as many horrified buyers have quickly discovered, they don't want to do the work and you can do nothing more than beg to get them to do it. The NHBC certificate is worthless.

    Personally, I wouldn't buy a new build under any circumstances. Not good value, not worth the risk.
    We bought new build Barrett in 2005 and we got a good one. Garden full of rubble with major drainage issues. Wall cavities not full of insulation as supposed to be. Cracks in wall and ceiling plaster as the building settled.

    Then we had a hole open up in the downstairs ceiling right above the front door. Just as it was on sale with people coming for viewings. And - having had conversations with various neighbours - we appear to have got a good one!

    Never again.
    Standards have clearly deteriorated over time. My flat was built about 20 years ago and, apart from a little bit of plaster cracking and the windows being a little on the cheap side, it's fine.

    Nowadays you can barely move for tales of wonky walls and collapsed ceilings. There was even a case in Cambridge recently where the shysters built houses that started falling down before they'd finished building them. Those got torn down, but you bet if they could've disguised the problems with plaster and paint they would've flogged them off.
    What's insane is that standards have gotten worse, as costs and regulation have risen.
    Many objections to new housing would disappear is they weren’t so horrendously ugly. Vile redbrick warts all over our fair land

    Build nice Georgian terraces or Victorian semis with proper windows and build them with gentle density - four or five storeys

    Make them handsome and make sure there is infrastructure and community - pubs and shops that are walkable - not soulless Barratt bart-burbs based on the car
    It would help, but given the types of objection many raise which have nothing to do with appearance and character, and more to do with principle or separate material matters, it wouldn't make that much difference.

    The infrastructure point would remove many more - some objections are because people genuinely don't know that contributions from the development may well address those concerns - but given that people also object to infrastructure and amenity changes, I wouldn't bet a non-existent house on it.
    Except contributions from development notoriously don't address those concerns. One of the big problems with Barts loony plans for getting rid of planning is that part of that planning is making developers make contibutions towards servcies. It is a failing system which needs reform but not abolition. Indeed we need more power to force developers to properly fund services - particularly GPs and schools.

    Bart's issue with planning is he fundementally misunderstands what it is and what it does. He wrongly sees it as the main impediment to building (it isn't) and thinks that by sweeping it away things will magically get better and we will get more houses built (we won't).

    The idea that freeing up more land for building will get more houses built is a fallacy. As I have pointed out before available land with planning permission far outstrips the number of houses being built and the gap has widened every year for the last decade or more.
    Why should housebuilders, any more than candlestick makers, be required to fund schools and bits of the NHS? This is a tax payer liability; housebuilders provide a service, the growing population they serve is a direct result of government migration policy, and the consequences are a state liability.
    Because ever since Thatcher we have worked on the principle of 'polluter pays'. Local councils cannot control how many houses are built in their area - this is assigned from central government. But central Government is not willing to pay for all the costs of the services associated with all the new building. So if they will not pay and the local councils cannot pay then it is down to the company actually making the profit to pay.
    But it's not pollution.

    Population growth is not due to construction. Healthcare demand, school demand, none of it comes from construction. Fail to build sufficient houses (as we have) and demand is still there.

    Demand comes from population growth, not housing growth. You want to tax the "polluter" then fine, but construction is not it. It's a response to population growth, not it's cause.
    This feels like undergrad economic theory (and that isn’t intended as a compliment).

    On one level you’re right. But in practice houses without adequate services are a significant part of why Britain feels so broken at the moment.

    House building generates externalities. Wishing those away is not good policy.
    What externalities?

    Name one single externality that isn't due to population growth instead.

    Children need schools whether they live in a home with their parents, or are crammed into a single room with their parents in someone else's home.

    People need healthcare whether they have a home of their own, or are in a room in someone else's home.
    It’s not that it’s not due to population growth, it’s that that growth is unevenly distributed. You can’t just move a school or GP surgery because the kids crammed into existing housing move to a new build 20 miles away.
    So why shouldn't central government which is taking the taxes from migrants (and everyone else) for that matter pay for the new schools and GP surgeries?

    Central government issues the visas that cause population growth.
    Central government takes their income tax.
    Central government takes their national insurance.
    Central government takes the VAT.
    Central government takes duties.

    Why should it not use its funds to pay for the externalities of its choices?
    As I’ve already said, on one level I agree with what you are saying.

    But you’re still like the economist who prefers his theory over reality.

    There is currently no money for central government to provide adequate services.

    At the same time there is market failure in the housing market such that big developers can make significant profit building fairly crap homes. Forcing the developers to also pay for services intervenes to address that market failure in a pretty blunt way, but it seems like the least worst option at the moment.

    And it’s not a tax on new homeowners. You can bet that those new builds will be priced at whatever the market can bear regardless, so this isn’t a cost that will be passed onto buyers. Instead it is bringing private profit back into the public sphere. Which is a good thing right now given how broken our public services are.
    There is a shortfall of housing and your solution is to tax housing. That makes the problem worse not better.

    That's like saying there's a shortfall of dentistry, so the solution is to tax dentists more in response.

    We need millions more houses. Free the market and allow construction to happen and we can solve it.

    Central government needs to own up to the consequences of its policies. If it gives millions of visas that's perfectly fine but then it needs to pay for the infrastructure, not expect young people buying a house to pay for its choices.
    We need millions more houses. 100% agree.

    But if those houses are built without adequate services and infrastructure we will simply create another problem, just as significant for the future prosperity of the country.

    So the services are needed. If there is a better solution than making developers contribute to paying for them I’m all ears. But I haven’t heard one so far.

    And I’m not at all convinced that this tax on housing is the bottleneck in the supply.
    I've given you a better solution.

    The government that takes the taxes and issues the visas pays its own way, from the taxes it takes which are levied on the people it issued the visas too and everyone else.

    What do we pay our taxes for, if not investment in public services?

    If the Government won't pay for the investment population growth requires then it shouldn't issue the visas. But it can, from the taxes it levies on those it issued the visas too and others.

    It not wanting to is a different matter.
    I think I’ll leave this here. I don’t think you’re operating in the real world.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,794

    He’s back to change candidate again.

    He is utterly utterly useless. He might actually be the most unskilled PM we’ve ever had!

    Liz Truss.
    In fairness to the Mad Tory In The Attic, she did have an idea of what was wrong and a logically coherent plan on how to fix it. It went wrong because no battle plan survives contact with the enemy and modern-day circs meant it wouldn't work, but that's not the point. Sunak on the other hand is a conspiracy theorist who spends all day on his phone believing Twitter. He might actually be the worst post WW2 PM if you don't count Eden
  • Options
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    The Grauniad is utterly insane if they think we don't need housing construction.

    There simply aren't enough houses in the country. We need millions more, not hundreds of thousands more.

    We need villages to become towns, towns to become cities and cities to become bigger. We need new towns. We need massive, mammoth house building.

    Any NIMBYs need to go to hell. No tolerance for their BS.

    1. It's not The Guardian saying we don't need more houses, it's a barrister writing in The Guardian, a paper which often publishes views outside the Overton window.

    2. How do you answer the assertion in the article, supported by OECD data, that the UK has in fact about the average number of homes per capita when compared with the rest of the developed world?

    Like you, my position has been that we need more housing, but now I wonder. It's not as if we have 10,000s of people on the streets or living in temporary camps. The vast majority of people are housed right now. Arguably, building more houses would just lead to more empty houses.

    The issue seems to be our wealth inequality, particularly between the over-45s and the under-45s, which distorts the housing market.

    So, I (living on a pension, 100% equity in a large house) could afford to buy a 3-bed house locally, without a mortgage (but I could easily get a competitive mortgage if needed which I can service with the rental income), whereas a young working family on low-pay cannot get a look-in because they can't save enough to get a deposit.

    Thus, controlling rents would seem to be a way to go. At implementation fix the level at the rents being charged at the time the bill was published. Freeze rents for 10 years and allow inflation to do its work.

    Of course the BLT landlords would squeal as would free-marketeers, but let them squeal - they can always sell up if they think they can more money elsewhere.

    In time, lower real rents mean a lower cost to the taxpayer for Housing Benefit and Universal Credit too as an added fiscal benefit (and indeed every new home-owner is a potential future Housing Benefit claimant avoided).
    It's certainly more complicated than national supply/demand.

    The number of spare bedrooms in the UK has increased by 2 million over the last decade, even while the population has increased. So, at the very least, we're building the wrong kind of housing in the wrong place.

    You could plaster Benbecula with homes and it isn't going to do anything for the housing crisis in Manchester.
    Spare bedrooms is an irrelevant statistic.

    It's the circle of life that people get a home they need, get a bit older, their kids leave home, then they continue living until they die and someone else moves into the home who may need all those rooms once more. Until their kids get older and the cycle continues.

    Build more 3 plus bedroom homes and the problem is solved. Then young adults and migrants alike can have a home of their own, while existing homeowners can continue to live where they've put down roots.

    Or should old people be forced to live 3 couples sharing a 3 bedroom house rather than each having their own home?

    Plus of course studies where people work from home are classed as spare rooms.
    The total number of bedrooms available in the UK is increasing faster than the population.

    If your concern is solving the housing crisis, building lots of half empty or entirely empty homes is not very clever.
    You might want to check your facts as they don't add up.

    Spare bedrooms have risen by 2 million according to you in the last decade.
    Our population has grown by 4 million in the last decade.

    How is 2 million more than 4 million? In what universe?

    We aren't building lots of empty homes, we need more homes for young people, young people have kids, so we need to build three bedroom homes.

    That old people remain where they already were is irrelevant.
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,844
    kjh said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kjh said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kjh said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kjh said:

    Pagan2 said:

    viewcode said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    @MarqueeMark it wouldn't surprise me if Totnes became a three-way marginal

    Strictly speaking there isn’t going to be a Totnes constituency any more. It is being subsumed by South Devon. But Electoral Calculus agrees with you: 37% Cons, 32% Lab, 31% LibDem.

    I’m in the neighbouring Newton Abbot constituency and under the boundary changes it is a lot more marginal. A quite plausible Lab GAIN. I’d be delighted to see Anne Morris get the boot.
    Clearly a seat that needs a steer on tactical voting.
    I don’t think the outcome of the general election is going to be determined by tactical voting. Tories lose, Labour win. More or less tactical voting may effect the majority, but polling doesn’t suggest that tactics voting is critical.
    The extent of tactical voting is important only for those of us betting on LibDem seat numbers.
    May I inquire why @Truman was banned?

    Asking for a friend

    He was fun and interesting. Sure he was provocative and right wing and possibly pro-Putin (tho quite subtle about it) - I can see why his views might have outraged people, but then @148grss views are outrageous to me, but I don’t want him cancelled, quite the opposite

    However I expect you have a solid moderators’ reason for cancelling him, and if so fair enuff
    I didn't ban him, so I don't know.
    I just want reassurance people aren’t being banned for provocative opinions.
    You must be new here.

    That reassurance doesn't exist. As @RodCrosby , @isam and @MrEd can testify, having provocative opinions is pretty much the only thing that gets you reliably banned. PB operates on pub rules: if it pisses @OGH or his helpers off you get thrown out. If you want to complain that you are being cancelled I understand that the Spectator pays complainants to complain about viscious[1] things on Twitter.

    [1] Yes I know it's "vicious". But Rob Liddle is really oily and oozes dribble, so, y'know...
    I could point out many seem to feel my opinions are provocative yet I am still here
    Provocative but always interesting and that is coming from a LD whom I know you hate.
    I don't hate lib dems I merely said it was the only party I would vote to keep out, not the same thing
    Badly worded by me. I always get the impression we would get on. I know I could never convert you, but I feel I could make you less anti.
    My problem with your party is merely one of honesty, your candidates come across as we will say what we need to get elected and then do what we want when elected. All politicians do it however your party seems completely fine with candidates giving different messages in different constituencies as long as they get voted in. At least other parties get there candidates to mostly sell a common view.
    I would like to discuss with you, but don't have time at the moment, but I disagree and I'm happy to at a later date. It is an accusations often put to the LDs. One of the issues, particularly in the past was the Liberals had a wide spectrum of seats unlike other parties. The priorities in Bermondsey are very different to Richmond or St Ives. The basic philosophy though is the same throughout. I would be amazed if you couldn't find some hypocrisy, but generally they are pretty consistent.
    Welcome to dm me so we can discuss at leisure
    Cheers. Worth doing here as others will I am sure agree with you - you definitely aren't alone in your view. Just very busy at present.

    On the general topic of being controversial though - keep it up. I enjoy your posts, even the ones I disagree with. They are often thought provoking.
    May I dm you anyway?
  • Options
    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Agree about the NIMBYS but we also need to deal with one of the biggest obstacles to housebuilding - the building firms.

    How can it be acceptable that last year, when prices stopped rising as sharply as they had been, the big developers cut back on their building programmes specificaly citing the platauing of house prices?

    https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-13052563/Housebuilders-cut-Number-new-homes-planned-fell-44-year.html

    Housebuilders are sitting on hundredas of thousands of plots with planning permission and are refusing to build on them.

    That, and the regulation of new builds is almost non-existent. If you're lucky you get a structurally sound ludicrously expensive rabbit hutch out of your typical volume housebuilder. If you're unlucky the thing is full of serious faults that they don't want to spend money putting right and, as many horrified buyers have quickly discovered, they don't want to do the work and you can do nothing more than beg to get them to do it. The NHBC certificate is worthless.

    Personally, I wouldn't buy a new build under any circumstances. Not good value, not worth the risk.
    We bought new build Barrett in 2005 and we got a good one. Garden full of rubble with major drainage issues. Wall cavities not full of insulation as supposed to be. Cracks in wall and ceiling plaster as the building settled.

    Then we had a hole open up in the downstairs ceiling right above the front door. Just as it was on sale with people coming for viewings. And - having had conversations with various neighbours - we appear to have got a good one!

    Never again.
    Standards have clearly deteriorated over time. My flat was built about 20 years ago and, apart from a little bit of plaster cracking and the windows being a little on the cheap side, it's fine.

    Nowadays you can barely move for tales of wonky walls and collapsed ceilings. There was even a case in Cambridge recently where the shysters built houses that started falling down before they'd finished building them. Those got torn down, but you bet if they could've disguised the problems with plaster and paint they would've flogged them off.
    What's insane is that standards have gotten worse, as costs and regulation have risen.
    Many objections to new housing would disappear is they weren’t so horrendously ugly. Vile redbrick warts all over our fair land

    Build nice Georgian terraces or Victorian semis with proper windows and build them with gentle density - four or five storeys

    Make them handsome and make sure there is infrastructure and community - pubs and shops that are walkable - not soulless Barratt bart-burbs based on the car
    It would help, but given the types of objection many raise which have nothing to do with appearance and character, and more to do with principle or separate material matters, it wouldn't make that much difference.

    The infrastructure point would remove many more - some objections are because people genuinely don't know that contributions from the development may well address those concerns - but given that people also object to infrastructure and amenity changes, I wouldn't bet a non-existent house on it.
    Except contributions from development notoriously don't address those concerns. One of the big problems with Barts loony plans for getting rid of planning is that part of that planning is making developers make contibutions towards servcies. It is a failing system which needs reform but not abolition. Indeed we need more power to force developers to properly fund services - particularly GPs and schools.

    Bart's issue with planning is he fundementally misunderstands what it is and what it does. He wrongly sees it as the main impediment to building (it isn't) and thinks that by sweeping it away things will magically get better and we will get more houses built (we won't).

    The idea that freeing up more land for building will get more houses built is a fallacy. As I have pointed out before available land with planning permission far outstrips the number of houses being built and the gap has widened every year for the last decade or more.
    Why should housebuilders, any more than candlestick makers, be required to fund schools and bits of the NHS? This is a tax payer liability; housebuilders provide a service, the growing population they serve is a direct result of government migration policy, and the consequences are a state liability.
    Because ever since Thatcher we have worked on the principle of 'polluter pays'. Local councils cannot control how many houses are built in their area - this is assigned from central government. But central Government is not willing to pay for all the costs of the services associated with all the new building. So if they will not pay and the local councils cannot pay then it is down to the company actually making the profit to pay.
    But it's not pollution.

    Population growth is not due to construction. Healthcare demand, school demand, none of it comes from construction. Fail to build sufficient houses (as we have) and demand is still there.

    Demand comes from population growth, not housing growth. You want to tax the "polluter" then fine, but construction is not it. It's a response to population growth, not it's cause.
    This feels like undergrad economic theory (and that isn’t intended as a compliment).

    On one level you’re right. But in practice houses without adequate services are a significant part of why Britain feels so broken at the moment.

    House building generates externalities. Wishing those away is not good policy.
    What externalities?

    Name one single externality that isn't due to population growth instead.

    Children need schools whether they live in a home with their parents, or are crammed into a single room with their parents in someone else's home.

    People need healthcare whether they have a home of their own, or are in a room in someone else's home.
    It’s not that it’s not due to population growth, it’s that that growth is unevenly distributed. You can’t just move a school or GP surgery because the kids crammed into existing housing move to a new build 20 miles away.
    So why shouldn't central government which is taking the taxes from migrants (and everyone else) for that matter pay for the new schools and GP surgeries?

    Central government issues the visas that cause population growth.
    Central government takes their income tax.
    Central government takes their national insurance.
    Central government takes the VAT.
    Central government takes duties.

    Why should it not use its funds to pay for the externalities of its choices?
    As I’ve already said, on one level I agree with what you are saying.

    But you’re still like the economist who prefers his theory over reality.

    There is currently no money for central government to provide adequate services.

    At the same time there is market failure in the housing market such that big developers can make significant profit building fairly crap homes. Forcing the developers to also pay for services intervenes to address that market failure in a pretty blunt way, but it seems like the least worst option at the moment.

    And it’s not a tax on new homeowners. You can bet that those new builds will be priced at whatever the market can bear regardless, so this isn’t a cost that will be passed onto buyers. Instead it is bringing private profit back into the public sphere. Which is a good thing right now given how broken our public services are.
    There is a shortfall of housing and your solution is to tax housing. That makes the problem worse not better.

    That's like saying there's a shortfall of dentistry, so the solution is to tax dentists more in response.

    We need millions more houses. Free the market and allow construction to happen and we can solve it.

    Central government needs to own up to the consequences of its policies. If it gives millions of visas that's perfectly fine but then it needs to pay for the infrastructure, not expect young people buying a house to pay for its choices.
    We need millions more houses. 100% agree.

    But if those houses are built without adequate services and infrastructure we will simply create another problem, just as significant for the future prosperity of the country.

    So the services are needed. If there is a better solution than making developers contribute to paying for them I’m all ears. But I haven’t heard one so far.

    And I’m not at all convinced that this tax on housing is the bottleneck in the supply.
    I've given you a better solution.

    The government that takes the taxes and issues the visas pays its own way, from the taxes it takes which are levied on the people it issued the visas too and everyone else.

    What do we pay our taxes for, if not investment in public services?

    If the Government won't pay for the investment population growth requires then it shouldn't issue the visas. But it can, from the taxes it levies on those it issued the visas too and others.

    It not wanting to is a different matter.
    I think I’ll leave this here. I don’t think you’re operating in the real world.
    Why not?

    What are our taxes for if not for paying for schools and hospitals?

    Why should new homeowners pay for them instead?
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,416

    Hah.


    She's like a less attractive version of Kate Middleton. That gives hope I think.
    She’s prettier for sure.
    Yeah but, neither of them are Liv Tyler.
    Neither am I. But I get the comparison all the time “you look like that elf girl in the hobbit”. 🙄
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,237
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Is that...real? I mean it isn't a spoof or anything?
    So I’m currently writing a paper on some research I have been getting my group to do, involving anti cancer properties from some novel capsaicinoids (think capsaicin and other compounds from chillies, but made more potent by modifications). I did my lit review last week, found around 15 papers that looked relevant for the background/intro and then screened them down to 6 which are relevant.
    I then played with Chatgpt. It produced a thousand words of fluff around the subject. No detail, no references, no actual science. I can see why it scares the crap out of our resident journalist - it seems competent at spitting out fluff already. But for serious scientific argument? I could use the basic structure and modify, but to be honest I wrote the draft intro over a couple of hours and it includes around twenty accurate citations.
    It may (and surely will get better). But at the moment it’s miles away from replacing me (long may that continue…)
    Claude 3 is significantly better than ChatGPT. And GPT4 - which is the basis of ChatGPT - will likely be superseded this summer by GPT5. Which some claim is a huge leap in capability, some even claim it is AGI

    It’s coming
    Will Claude 4 run the Labour Party ?
    There will come a point when A.I. (whether it is sentient or not) will be obviously better at making vastly complex political-economic decisions. It will be better because it will be able to draw on near-infinite amounts of data at incredible speed - and hugely better at extrapolating the outcomes (the same way it is now superior at chess and Go - Ai can think much further ahead)

    At this point, if logic prevails, we should hand over most governance to the machines. This juncture could easily arrive in the next 5 years
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626
    We've fairly often complained that the BBC doesn't report on the conflict in Sudan.

    And yet no one mentioned this was their lead story this morning.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-68606201
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,312
    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Good. Fucking disgraceful

    If you want to live in an Islamic theocracy go live in Iran or Saudi
    Yep. If we'd have let that go it would have been sharia law at the Old Bailey by Christmas. Except there wouldn't be a Christmas.
    How far do you reckon we'd get if we suggested NR put some atheist messaging up in the name of inclusion? Yet surely atheists still outnumber Muslims.
    In the UK, for the moment, maybe. Globally they certainly don't.

    Over 50% in the UK still believe in the God of Abraham too, combining Christians, Muslims and Jews
    That doesn't mean "He" actually exists!
    I do not for a moment believe that 50% of the country is muslim, jewish or christians and actuallly believes in their god
    On the last census 46% in England and Wales said they were Christian, 37% non religious, 6.5% Muslim and 0.5% Jewish
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/culturalidentity/religion/bulletins/religionenglandandwales/census2021
    My father would put christian on the census he is a total atheist the census is worthless
    Some of the non religious would also be agnostics, not outright atheists
    A small point but FWIW everyone without exception is agnostic. What is true or untrue about God/no god and all that is not a knowable item.
    That's the point about belief, which is what distinguishes people with belief from agnostics.
    Some people will believe anything.
    Brexit?
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,541

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Good. Fucking disgraceful

    If you want to live in an Islamic theocracy go live in Iran or Saudi
    Yep. If we'd have let that go it would have been sharia law at the Old Bailey by Christmas. Except there wouldn't be a Christmas.
    How far do you reckon we'd get if we suggested NR put some atheist messaging up in the name of inclusion? Yet surely atheists still outnumber Muslims.
    In the UK, for the moment, maybe. Globally they certainly don't.

    Over 50% in the UK still believe in the God of Abraham too, combining Christians, Muslims and Jews
    That doesn't mean "He" actually exists!
    I do not for a moment believe that 50% of the country is muslim, jewish or christians and actuallly believes in their god
    On the last census 46% in England and Wales said they were Christian, 37% non religious, 6.5% Muslim and 0.5% Jewish
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/culturalidentity/religion/bulletins/religionenglandandwales/census2021
    My father would put christian on the census he is a total atheist the census is worthless
    Some of the non religious would also be agnostics, not outright atheists
    A small point but FWIW everyone without exception is agnostic. What is true or untrue about God/no god and all that is not a knowable item.
    That's the point about belief, which is what distinguishes people with belief from agnostics.
    Agnosticism as a word refers to knowledge (gnosis), not belief. They are not the same thing. Belief is mental assent; knowledge is 'justified true belief'. With regard to God stuff, only belief or unbelief is available to us, not knowledge. This is true for theists and non theists alike.

    Agnosticism merely recognises that we cannot know.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,182
    viewcode said:

    Is that...real? I mean it isn't a spoof or anything?
    I clicked on that expecting to see Arnold Judas Rimmer !
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,312
    Nigelb said:

    We've fairly often complained that the BBC doesn't report on the conflict in Sudan.

    And yet no one mentioned this was their lead story this morning.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-68606201

    To be fair to another news channel, Al Jaz, which was pretty much wall-to-wall Gaza at the end of last year, they have been covering Sudan and Haiti in some detail in recent weeks.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,794
    edited March 20

    Hah.


    She's like a less attractive version of Kate Middleton. That gives hope I think.
    She’s prettier for sure.
    Yeah but, neither of them are Liv Tyler.
    Neither am I. But I get the comparison all the time “you look like that elf girl in the hobbit”. 🙄
    Tauriel/Evangeline Lilly?
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,272
    Pagan2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Good. Fucking disgraceful

    If you want to live in an Islamic theocracy go live in Iran or Saudi
    Yep. If we'd have let that go it would have been sharia law at the Old Bailey by Christmas. Except there wouldn't be a Christmas.
    How far do you reckon we'd get if we suggested NR put some atheist messaging up in the name of inclusion? Yet surely atheists still outnumber Muslims.
    In the UK, for the moment, maybe. Globally they certainly don't.

    Over 50% in the UK still believe in the God of Abraham too, combining Christians, Muslims and Jews
    That doesn't mean "He" actually exists!
    I do not for a moment believe that 50% of the country is muslim, jewish or christians and actuallly believes in their god
    On the last census 46% in England and Wales said they were Christian, 37% non religious, 6.5% Muslim and 0.5% Jewish
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/culturalidentity/religion/bulletins/religionenglandandwales/census2021
    My father would put christian on the census he is a total atheist the census is worthless
    Some of the non religious would also be agnostics, not outright atheists
    A small point but FWIW everyone without exception is agnostic. What is true or untrue about God/no god and all that is not a knowable item.
    That's the point about belief, which is what distinguishes people with belief from agnostics.
    Some people will believe anything.
    There's not much reasoning to be done with deeply-held beliefs.
    I don't agree some beliefs welcome questioning and they don't expect others to live up to the standards set by their beliefs. These are benign beliefs.

    Alternatively there are beliefs that don't welcome questioning and think everyone should have to comply to their standards. These are malign beliefs

    There is a huge difference
    I am perfectly willing to talk about my beliefs and to have them questioned, but I don't think that my beliefs are that likely to be changed, regardless of any evidence or argument they is presented to the contrary. This is what I mean by saying there is not much reasoning to be done.

    I think this is what distinguishes a belief from a conclusion.

    And it's worth pointing out that beliefs don't have to relate only to religions. People will tend to have all sorts of beliefs that they might not realise are beliefs, because they don't relate to a religion.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,182

    Hah.


    It's pronounced "Chumley", as in the Harry Enfield Show character Mr Cholmondeley-Warner.
    Hello Grayson.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,632
    Pagan2 said:

    kjh said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kjh said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kjh said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kjh said:

    Pagan2 said:

    viewcode said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    @MarqueeMark it wouldn't surprise me if Totnes became a three-way marginal

    Strictly speaking there isn’t going to be a Totnes constituency any more. It is being subsumed by South Devon. But Electoral Calculus agrees with you: 37% Cons, 32% Lab, 31% LibDem.

    I’m in the neighbouring Newton Abbot constituency and under the boundary changes it is a lot more marginal. A quite plausible Lab GAIN. I’d be delighted to see Anne Morris get the boot.
    Clearly a seat that needs a steer on tactical voting.
    I don’t think the outcome of the general election is going to be determined by tactical voting. Tories lose, Labour win. More or less tactical voting may effect the majority, but polling doesn’t suggest that tactics voting is critical.
    The extent of tactical voting is important only for those of us betting on LibDem seat numbers.
    May I inquire why @Truman was banned?

    Asking for a friend

    He was fun and interesting. Sure he was provocative and right wing and possibly pro-Putin (tho quite subtle about it) - I can see why his views might have outraged people, but then @148grss views are outrageous to me, but I don’t want him cancelled, quite the opposite

    However I expect you have a solid moderators’ reason for cancelling him, and if so fair enuff
    I didn't ban him, so I don't know.
    I just want reassurance people aren’t being banned for provocative opinions.
    You must be new here.

    That reassurance doesn't exist. As @RodCrosby , @isam and @MrEd can testify, having provocative opinions is pretty much the only thing that gets you reliably banned. PB operates on pub rules: if it pisses @OGH or his helpers off you get thrown out. If you want to complain that you are being cancelled I understand that the Spectator pays complainants to complain about viscious[1] things on Twitter.

    [1] Yes I know it's "vicious". But Rob Liddle is really oily and oozes dribble, so, y'know...
    I could point out many seem to feel my opinions are provocative yet I am still here
    Provocative but always interesting and that is coming from a LD whom I know you hate.
    I don't hate lib dems I merely said it was the only party I would vote to keep out, not the same thing
    Badly worded by me. I always get the impression we would get on. I know I could never convert you, but I feel I could make you less anti.
    My problem with your party is merely one of honesty, your candidates come across as we will say what we need to get elected and then do what we want when elected. All politicians do it however your party seems completely fine with candidates giving different messages in different constituencies as long as they get voted in. At least other parties get there candidates to mostly sell a common view.
    I would like to discuss with you, but don't have time at the moment, but I disagree and I'm happy to at a later date. It is an accusations often put to the LDs. One of the issues, particularly in the past was the Liberals had a wide spectrum of seats unlike other parties. The priorities in Bermondsey are very different to Richmond or St Ives. The basic philosophy though is the same throughout. I would be amazed if you couldn't find some hypocrisy, but generally they are pretty consistent.
    Welcome to dm me so we can discuss at leisure
    Cheers. Worth doing here as others will I am sure agree with you - you definitely aren't alone in your view. Just very busy at present.

    On the general topic of being controversial though - keep it up. I enjoy your posts, even the ones I disagree with. They are often thought provoking.
    May I dm you anyway?
    Of course.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,462

    Hah.


    She's like a less attractive version of Kate Middleton. That gives hope I think.
    She’s prettier for sure.
    Yeah but, neither of them are Liv Tyler.
    Kate's better looking than Liv Tyler in my opinion. It's whatever tickles your pickle I suppose.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,237
    Having taken ayahuasca twice (and for other reasons) I am utterly convinced there is a much much deeper layer of reality; where consciousness entwines with the universe in some kind of divinely glittering double helix. A descending baroque staircase of beauty and meaning, made of the diamonds of time

    Do I “know” this? Not in any scientific way. Do I believe this? No, it is more than “belief”

    So what is the word? There isn’t one. But I have seen this and it is the case
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,794
    edited March 20
    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Is that...real? I mean it isn't a spoof or anything?
    I clicked on that expecting to see Arnold Judas Rimmer !
    So did I. 😃
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,312
    edited March 20
    Taz said:

    Hah.


    It's pronounced "Chumley", as in the Harry Enfield Show character Mr Cholmondeley-Warner.
    Hello Grayson.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LS37SNYjg8w
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNa1RYgV17o
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,844

    Pagan2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Good. Fucking disgraceful

    If you want to live in an Islamic theocracy go live in Iran or Saudi
    Yep. If we'd have let that go it would have been sharia law at the Old Bailey by Christmas. Except there wouldn't be a Christmas.
    How far do you reckon we'd get if we suggested NR put some atheist messaging up in the name of inclusion? Yet surely atheists still outnumber Muslims.
    In the UK, for the moment, maybe. Globally they certainly don't.

    Over 50% in the UK still believe in the God of Abraham too, combining Christians, Muslims and Jews
    That doesn't mean "He" actually exists!
    I do not for a moment believe that 50% of the country is muslim, jewish or christians and actuallly believes in their god
    On the last census 46% in England and Wales said they were Christian, 37% non religious, 6.5% Muslim and 0.5% Jewish
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/culturalidentity/religion/bulletins/religionenglandandwales/census2021
    My father would put christian on the census he is a total atheist the census is worthless
    Some of the non religious would also be agnostics, not outright atheists
    A small point but FWIW everyone without exception is agnostic. What is true or untrue about God/no god and all that is not a knowable item.
    That's the point about belief, which is what distinguishes people with belief from agnostics.
    Some people will believe anything.
    There's not much reasoning to be done with deeply-held beliefs.
    I don't agree some beliefs welcome questioning and they don't expect others to live up to the standards set by their beliefs. These are benign beliefs.

    Alternatively there are beliefs that don't welcome questioning and think everyone should have to comply to their standards. These are malign beliefs

    There is a huge difference
    I am perfectly willing to talk about my beliefs and to have them questioned, but I don't think that my beliefs are that likely to be changed, regardless of any evidence or argument they is presented to the contrary. This is what I mean by saying there is not much reasoning to be done.

    I think this is what distinguishes a belief from a conclusion.

    And it's worth pointing out that beliefs don't have to relate only to religions. People will tend to have all sorts of beliefs that they might not realise are beliefs, because they don't relate to a religion.
    That is fair enough to say, I think though I was trying to distinguish between this is what I believe and it doesnt matter if you dont and this is what I believe and you have to as well
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,679
    edited March 20
    O/T I came across an interesting issue today at CAB. It's a bit long but I have a PB brains trust question at the end. I can obviously only share the general details but in essence:

    - This person was subject to a clever phishing attack late last year and unwittingly gave the scammers enough information to guess her password and access her bank account.
    - As she is relatively poor the scammers couldn't pinch much money from her already heavily overdrawn account.
    - Her high street bank spotted the unusual activity and quickly cancelled her debit card, made her change her online password, and refunded the fraudulent transactions (well done them).
    - In the meantime the scammers, presumably realising the account was empty, used the victim's personal details to arrange a £5,000 loan from a well-known online loans platform that lends to clients with poor credit ratings.
    - Sadly for the scammers, by the time the loan arrived in the victim's account they were locked out.

    So far, so straighforward. At this point simply contact the lender, get them to cancel the loan and return the £5,000 - sorted.

    Unfortunately though, the individual is not great with money, she is poor and heavily overdrawn. Or rather was - but now the overdraft has been cleared and there's a thousand or so to spare in the account.

    Not pretending (or really wanting) to know how that's happened she decided to clear one or two overdue bills and before you know it the £5,000 has completely gone.

    Then she realises that she's on the hook for £190 pm repayments to the lender (at 48% APR ffs!), that she can't afford. For five years.

    So, what to do?

    She can't pay back the principal (it's certain her bank will not be so generous with her overdraft this time round).

    Should she approach the lender explain the situation, get them to cancel the loan, and offer to pay it back at what she can afford (£20pm max), ideally with no interest? That'll take over 20 years btw, much longer if the insist on interest.

    If she takes debt advice and she'll probably be led to a Debt Relief Order, which would clear this, her only debt. Lender loses out but fuck it - 48% APR, they must expect some losses.

    Bottom line is, she never took out the loan - though she has spent the money, of course.

    Any ideas?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626
    edited March 20
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Is that...real? I mean it isn't a spoof or anything?
    So I’m currently writing a paper on some research I have been getting my group to do, involving anti cancer properties from some novel capsaicinoids (think capsaicin and other compounds from chillies, but made more potent by modifications). I did my lit review last week, found around 15 papers that looked relevant for the background/intro and then screened them down to 6 which are relevant.
    I then played with Chatgpt. It produced a thousand words of fluff around the subject. No detail, no references, no actual science. I can see why it scares the crap out of our resident journalist - it seems competent at spitting out fluff already. But for serious scientific argument? I could use the basic structure and modify, but to be honest I wrote the draft intro over a couple of hours and it includes around twenty accurate citations.
    It may (and surely will get better). But at the moment it’s miles away from replacing me (long may that continue…)
    Claude 3 is significantly better than ChatGPT. And GPT4 - which is the basis of ChatGPT - will likely be superseded this summer by GPT5. Which some claim is a huge leap in capability, some even claim it is AGI

    It’s coming
    Will Claude 4 run the Labour Party ?
    There will come a point when A.I. (whether it is sentient or not) will be obviously better at making vastly complex political-economic decisions. It will be better because it will be able to draw on near-infinite amounts of data at incredible speed - and hugely better at extrapolating the outcomes (the same way it is now superior at chess and Go - Ai can think much further ahead)

    At this point, if logic prevails, we should hand over most governance to the machines. This juncture could easily arrive in the next 5 years
    That's a doubtful proposition.
    However smart they become, why would we assume they have any interest in our interests
    ?

    Of course it's not impossible that we might, in due course, have no choice in the matter.

    Anyway, you might at least have acknowledged the pun.
  • Options
    japcjapc Posts: 5
    Leon said:

    Having taken ayahuasca twice (and for other reasons) I am utterly convinced there is a much much deeper layer of reality; where consciousness entwines with the universe in some kind of divinely glittering double helix. A descending baroque staircase of beauty and meaning, made of the diamonds of time

    Do I “know” this? Not in any scientific way. Do I believe this? No, it is more than “belief”

    So what is the word? There isn’t one. But I have seen this and it is the case

    Faith is the word. A belief in something for which there is no tangible evidence.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,462

    Hah.


    She's like a less attractive version of Kate Middleton. That gives hope I think.
    She’s prettier for sure.
    She's very pretty - if we're being picky she's got a weak chin, a fairly prominent schnozz and slightly equine teeth.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,461

    He’s back to change candidate again.

    He is utterly utterly useless. He might actually be the most unskilled PM we’ve ever had!

    Liz Truss.
    Nah, less skilled than Truss. Truss's premiership was an exploding clown car powered by some obvious mistakes... but there was some plausibility about her acting like a politician.

    Sunak looks like a bright kid on work experience who has somehow been left in charge. Maybe everyone else has been sacked and he just didn't get the memo.

    He can't do politics because he hasn't got the practice in. The wet Wednesday nights away at Accrington. The years doing weekly rep. Fighting a hopeless seat or being opposition spokesman on school photocopiers.

    Or he's Mickey Mouse in the Sorcerer's Apprentice sequence in Fantasia, increasingly overwhelmed by forces he thought he could control, but can't.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,197

    Hah.


    She's like a less attractive version of Kate Middleton. That gives hope I think.
    She’s prettier for sure.
    Yeah but, neither of them are Liv Tyler.
    Kate's better looking than Liv Tyler in my opinion. It's whatever tickles your pickle I suppose.
    You've just insulted @MoonRabbit
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,416
    Leon said:

    Having taken ayahuasca twice (and for other reasons) I am utterly convinced there is a much much deeper layer of reality; where consciousness entwines with the universe in some kind of divinely glittering double helix. A descending baroque staircase of beauty and meaning, made of the diamonds of time

    Do I “know” this? Not in any scientific way. Do I believe this? No, it is more than “belief”

    So what is the word? There isn’t one. But I have seen this and it is the case

    “double helix”

    Isn’t it scientifically proven the Strands of DNA entwine in certain way by singing song to each other?

    If you are unaware of this science it’s spooky you used this phrase after ayahuasca
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,844

    Hah.


    She's like a less attractive version of Kate Middleton. That gives hope I think.
    She’s prettier for sure.
    Yeah but, neither of them are Liv Tyler.
    Kate's better looking than Liv Tyler in my opinion. It's whatever tickles your pickle I suppose.
    You've just insulted @MoonRabbit
    Moonrabbit is liv tyler?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,679
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Is that...real? I mean it isn't a spoof or anything?
    So I’m currently writing a paper on some research I have been getting my group to do, involving anti cancer properties from some novel capsaicinoids (think capsaicin and other compounds from chillies, but made more potent by modifications). I did my lit review last week, found around 15 papers that looked relevant for the background/intro and then screened them down to 6 which are relevant.
    I then played with Chatgpt. It produced a thousand words of fluff around the subject. No detail, no references, no actual science. I can see why it scares the crap out of our resident journalist - it seems competent at spitting out fluff already. But for serious scientific argument? I could use the basic structure and modify, but to be honest I wrote the draft intro over a couple of hours and it includes around twenty accurate citations.
    It may (and surely will get better). But at the moment it’s miles away from replacing me (long may that continue…)
    Claude 3 is significantly better than ChatGPT. And GPT4 - which is the basis of ChatGPT - will likely be superseded this summer by GPT5. Which some claim is a huge leap in capability, some even claim it is AGI

    It’s coming
    Will Claude 4 run the Labour Party ?
    Claude 4 has been upgrade to v95.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,169
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Is that...real? I mean it isn't a spoof or anything?
    So I’m currently writing a paper on some research I have been getting my group to do, involving anti cancer properties from some novel capsaicinoids (think capsaicin and other compounds from chillies, but made more potent by modifications). I did my lit review last week, found around 15 papers that looked relevant for the background/intro and then screened them down to 6 which are relevant.
    I then played with Chatgpt. It produced a thousand words of fluff around the subject. No detail, no references, no actual science. I can see why it scares the crap out of our resident journalist - it seems competent at spitting out fluff already. But for serious scientific argument? I could use the basic structure and modify, but to be honest I wrote the draft intro over a couple of hours and it includes around twenty accurate citations.
    It may (and surely will get better). But at the moment it’s miles away from replacing me (long may that continue…)
    Claude 3 is significantly better than ChatGPT. And GPT4 - which is the basis of ChatGPT - will likely be superseded this summer by GPT5. Which some claim is a huge leap in capability, some even claim it is AGI

    It’s coming
    Will Claude 4 run the Labour Party ?
    There will come a point when A.I. (whether it is sentient or not) will be obviously better at making vastly complex political-economic decisions. It will be better because it will be able to draw on near-infinite amounts of data at incredible speed - and hugely better at extrapolating the outcomes (the same way it is now superior at chess and Go - Ai can think much further ahead)

    At this point, if logic prevails, we should hand over most governance to the machines. This juncture could easily arrive in the next 5 years
    Could be a Platonic nirvana

  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,416

    Hah.


    She's like a less attractive version of Kate Middleton. That gives hope I think.
    She’s prettier for sure.
    She's very pretty - if we're being picky she's got a weak chin, a fairly prominent schnozz and slightly equine teeth.
    I think the phrase you are looking for is “a bit horsey.”
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,237
    japc said:

    Leon said:

    Having taken ayahuasca twice (and for other reasons) I am utterly convinced there is a much much deeper layer of reality; where consciousness entwines with the universe in some kind of divinely glittering double helix. A descending baroque staircase of beauty and meaning, made of the diamonds of time

    Do I “know” this? Not in any scientific way. Do I believe this? No, it is more than “belief”

    So what is the word? There isn’t one. But I have seen this and it is the case

    Faith is the word. A belief in something for which there is no tangible evidence.
    No, I have SEEN this

    Perhaps that’s it. I don’t believe in god or know god exists nor do I have a mere faith in a god: I have WITNESSED God (or the divine or another reality or whatever you want to call it).
  • Options

    O/T I came across an interesting issue today at CAB. It's a bit long but I have a PB brains trust question at the end. I can obviously only share the general details but in essence:

    - This person was subject to a clever phishing attack late last year and unwittingly gave the scammers enough information to guess her password and access her bank account.
    - As she is relatively poor the scammers couldn't pinch much money from her already heavily overdrawn account.
    - Her high street bank spotted the unusual activity and quickly cancelled her debit card, made her change her online password, and refunded the fraudulent transactions (well done them).
    - In the meantime the scammers, presumably realising the account was empty, used the victim's personal details to arrange a £5,000 loan from a well-known online loans platform that lends to clients with poor credit ratings.
    - Sadly for the scammers, by the time the loan arrived in the victim's account they were locked out.

    So far, so straighforward. At this point simply contact the lender, get them to cancel the loan and return the £5,000 - sorted.

    Unfortunately though, the individual is not great with money, she is poor and heavily overdrawn. Or rather was - but now the overdraft has been cleared and there's a thousand or so to spare in the account.

    Not pretending (or really wanting) to know how that's happened she decided to clear one or two overdue bills and before you know it the £5,000 has completely gone.

    Then she realises that she's on the hook for £190 pm repayments to the lender (at 48% APR ffs!), that she can't afford. For five years.

    So, what to do?

    She can't pay back the principal (it's certain her bank will not be so generous with her overdraft this time round).

    Should she approach the lender explain the situation, get them to cancel the loan, and offer to pay it back at what she can afford (£20pm max), ideally with no interest? That'll take over 20 years btw, much longer if the insist on interest.

    If she takes debt advice and she'll probably be led to a Debt Relief Order, which would clear this, her only debt. Lender loses out but fuck it - 48% APR, they must expect some losses.

    Bottom line is, she never took out the loan - though she has spent the money, of course.

    Any ideas?

    She didn't take out the loan, so it should be cancelled.

    If a debt relied order is needed, so be it, at any APR some losses are factored in let alone a 48% one.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,202

    O/T I came across an interesting issue today at CAB. It's a bit long but I have a PB brains trust question at the end. I can obviously only share the general details but in essence:

    - This person was subject to a clever phishing attack late last year and unwittingly gave the scammers enough information to guess her password and access her bank account.
    - As she is relatively poor the scammers couldn't pinch much money from her already heavily overdrawn account.
    - Her high street bank spotted the unusual activity and quickly cancelled her debit card, made her change her online password, and refunded the fraudulent transactions (well done them).
    - In the meantime the scammers, presumably realising the account was empty, used the victim's personal details to arrange a £5,000 loan from a well-known online loans platform that lends to clients with poor credit ratings.
    - Sadly for the scammers, by the time the loan arrived in the victim's account they were locked out.

    So far, so straighforward. At this point simply contact the lender, get them to cancel the loan and return the £5,000 - sorted.

    Unfortunately though, the individual is not great with money, she is poor and heavily overdrawn. Or rather was - but now the overdraft has been cleared and there's a thousand or so to spare in the account.

    Not pretending (or really wanting) to know how that's happened she decided to clear one or two overdue bills and before you know it the £5,000 has completely gone.

    Then she realises that she's on the hook for £190 pm repayments to the lender (at 48% APR ffs!), that she can't afford. For five years.

    So, what to do?

    She can't pay back the principal (it's certain her bank will not be so generous with her overdraft this time round).

    Should she approach the lender explain the situation, get them to cancel the loan, and offer to pay it back at what she can afford (£20pm max), ideally with no interest? That'll take over 20 years btw, much longer if the insist on interest.

    If she takes debt advice and she'll probably be led to a Debt Relief Order, which would clear this, her only debt. Lender loses out but fuck it - 48% APR, they must expect some losses.

    Bottom line is, she never took out the loan - though she has spent the money, of course.

    Any ideas?

    Does this not fall into the same category as bank errors that accidentally credit you with money that’s not yours? By taking the money etc you are committing an offence.
    She has been rather foolish, but I can understand why she did it. I suspect contacting the loan company to explain is the first step. But hopefully it can be resolved amicably.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,237
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Is that...real? I mean it isn't a spoof or anything?
    So I’m currently writing a paper on some research I have been getting my group to do, involving anti cancer properties from some novel capsaicinoids (think capsaicin and other compounds from chillies, but made more potent by modifications). I did my lit review last week, found around 15 papers that looked relevant for the background/intro and then screened them down to 6 which are relevant.
    I then played with Chatgpt. It produced a thousand words of fluff around the subject. No detail, no references, no actual science. I can see why it scares the crap out of our resident journalist - it seems competent at spitting out fluff already. But for serious scientific argument? I could use the basic structure and modify, but to be honest I wrote the draft intro over a couple of hours and it includes around twenty accurate citations.
    It may (and surely will get better). But at the moment it’s miles away from replacing me (long may that continue…)
    Claude 3 is significantly better than ChatGPT. And GPT4 - which is the basis of ChatGPT - will likely be superseded this summer by GPT5. Which some claim is a huge leap in capability, some even claim it is AGI

    It’s coming
    Will Claude 4 run the Labour Party ?
    There will come a point when A.I. (whether it is sentient or not) will be obviously better at making vastly complex political-economic decisions. It will be better because it will be able to draw on near-infinite amounts of data at incredible speed - and hugely better at extrapolating the outcomes (the same way it is now superior at chess and Go - Ai can think much further ahead)

    At this point, if logic prevails, we should hand over most governance to the machines. This juncture could easily arrive in the next 5 years
    That's a doubtful proposition.
    However smart they become, why would we assume they have any interest in our interests
    ?

    Of course it's not impossible that we might, in due course, have no choice in the matter.

    Anyway, you might at least have acknowledged the pun.
    Apologies. Good pun. Whooshed past me
  • Options
    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,140
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Is that...real? I mean it isn't a spoof or anything?
    So I’m currently writing a paper on some research I have been getting my group to do, involving anti cancer properties from some novel capsaicinoids (think capsaicin and other compounds from chillies, but made more potent by modifications). I did my lit review last week, found around 15 papers that looked relevant for the background/intro and then screened them down to 6 which are relevant.
    I then played with Chatgpt. It produced a thousand words of fluff around the subject. No detail, no references, no actual science. I can see why it scares the crap out of our resident journalist - it seems competent at spitting out fluff already. But for serious scientific argument? I could use the basic structure and modify, but to be honest I wrote the draft intro over a couple of hours and it includes around twenty accurate citations.
    It may (and surely will get better). But at the moment it’s miles away from replacing me (long may that continue…)
    Claude 3 is significantly better than ChatGPT. And GPT4 - which is the basis of ChatGPT - will likely be superseded this summer by GPT5. Which some claim is a huge leap in capability, some even claim it is AGI

    It’s coming
    Will Claude 4 run the Labour Party ?
    Are you suggesting Starmer will have his Claude 4 moment?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,249

    O/T I came across an interesting issue today at CAB. It's a bit long but I have a PB brains trust question at the end. I can obviously only share the general details but in essence:

    - This person was subject to a clever phishing attack late last year and unwittingly gave the scammers enough information to guess her password and access her bank account.
    - As she is relatively poor the scammers couldn't pinch much money from her already heavily overdrawn account.
    - Her high street bank spotted the unusual activity and quickly cancelled her debit card, made her change her online password, and refunded the fraudulent transactions (well done them).
    - In the meantime the scammers, presumably realising the account was empty, used the victim's personal details to arrange a £5,000 loan from a well-known online loans platform that lends to clients with poor credit ratings.
    - Sadly for the scammers, by the time the loan arrived in the victim's account they were locked out.

    So far, so straighforward. At this point simply contact the lender, get them to cancel the loan and return the £5,000 - sorted.

    Unfortunately though, the individual is not great with money, she is poor and heavily overdrawn. Or rather was - but now the overdraft has been cleared and there's a thousand or so to spare in the account.

    Not pretending (or really wanting) to know how that's happened she decided to clear one or two overdue bills and before you know it the £5,000 has completely gone.

    Then she realises that she's on the hook for £190 pm repayments to the lender (at 48% APR ffs!), that she can't afford. For five years.

    So, what to do?

    She can't pay back the principal (it's certain her bank will not be so generous with her overdraft this time round).

    Should she approach the lender explain the situation, get them to cancel the loan, and offer to pay it back at what she can afford (£20pm max), ideally with no interest? That'll take over 20 years btw, much longer if the insist on interest.

    If she takes debt advice and she'll probably be led to a Debt Relief Order, which would clear this, her only debt. Lender loses out but fuck it - 48% APR, they must expect some losses.

    Bottom line is, she never took out the loan - though she has spent the money, of course.

    Any ideas?

    Needs PB legal brains but strikes me maybe the loan is legally invalid as she did not agree to arrange it.

  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,416
    edited March 20
    viewcode said:

    Hah.


    She's like a less attractive version of Kate Middleton. That gives hope I think.
    She’s prettier for sure.
    Yeah but, neither of them are Liv Tyler.
    Neither am I. But I get the comparison all the time “you look like that elf girl in the hobbit”. 🙄
    Tauriel/Evangeline Lilly?
    No they meant the LOTR. They probably only saw all the movies when on a date so didn’t pay attention.

    They are not like and take these things seriously. Btw The Creator lost the Oscar. It’s Godzilla wot won it.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,312
    Leon said:

    japc said:

    Leon said:

    Having taken ayahuasca twice (and for other reasons) I am utterly convinced there is a much much deeper layer of reality; where consciousness entwines with the universe in some kind of divinely glittering double helix. A descending baroque staircase of beauty and meaning, made of the diamonds of time

    Do I “know” this? Not in any scientific way. Do I believe this? No, it is more than “belief”

    So what is the word? There isn’t one. But I have seen this and it is the case

    Faith is the word. A belief in something for which there is no tangible evidence.
    No, I have SEEN this

    Perhaps that’s it. I don’t believe in god or know god exists nor do I have a mere faith in a god: I have WITNESSED God (or the divine or another reality or whatever you want to call it).
    "No more drugs for that man!"
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,541
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Is that...real? I mean it isn't a spoof or anything?
    So I’m currently writing a paper on some research I have been getting my group to do, involving anti cancer properties from some novel capsaicinoids (think capsaicin and other compounds from chillies, but made more potent by modifications). I did my lit review last week, found around 15 papers that looked relevant for the background/intro and then screened them down to 6 which are relevant.
    I then played with Chatgpt. It produced a thousand words of fluff around the subject. No detail, no references, no actual science. I can see why it scares the crap out of our resident journalist - it seems competent at spitting out fluff already. But for serious scientific argument? I could use the basic structure and modify, but to be honest I wrote the draft intro over a couple of hours and it includes around twenty accurate citations.
    It may (and surely will get better). But at the moment it’s miles away from replacing me (long may that continue…)
    Claude 3 is significantly better than ChatGPT. And GPT4 - which is the basis of ChatGPT - will likely be superseded this summer by GPT5. Which some claim is a huge leap in capability, some even claim it is AGI

    It’s coming
    Will Claude 4 run the Labour Party ?
    There will come a point when A.I. (whether it is sentient or not) will be obviously better at making vastly complex political-economic decisions. It will be better because it will be able to draw on near-infinite amounts of data at incredible speed - and hugely better at extrapolating the outcomes (the same way it is now superior at chess and Go - Ai can think much further ahead)

    At this point, if logic prevails, we should hand over most governance to the machines. This juncture could easily arrive in the next 5 years
    Steve Barclay is in fact already in government.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,237

    Leon said:

    Having taken ayahuasca twice (and for other reasons) I am utterly convinced there is a much much deeper layer of reality; where consciousness entwines with the universe in some kind of divinely glittering double helix. A descending baroque staircase of beauty and meaning, made of the diamonds of time

    Do I “know” this? Not in any scientific way. Do I believe this? No, it is more than “belief”

    So what is the word? There isn’t one. But I have seen this and it is the case

    “double helix”

    Isn’t it scientifically proven the Strands of DNA entwine in certain way by singing song to each other?

    If you are unaware of this science it’s spooky you used this phrase after ayahuasca
    What? They sing?? Yes I was unaware of this

    Are you having a laugh?!
  • Options
    japcjapc Posts: 5
    Leon said:

    japc said:

    Leon said:

    Having taken ayahuasca twice (and for other reasons) I am utterly convinced there is a much much deeper layer of reality; where consciousness entwines with the universe in some kind of divinely glittering double helix. A descending baroque staircase of beauty and meaning, made of the diamonds of time

    Do I “know” this? Not in any scientific way. Do I believe this? No, it is more than “belief”

    So what is the word? There isn’t one. But I have seen this and it is the case

    Faith is the word. A belief in something for which there is no tangible evidence.
    No, I have SEEN this

    Perhaps that’s it. I don’t believe in god or know god exists nor do I have a mere faith in a god: I have WITNESSED God (or the divine or another reality or whatever you want to call it).
    You have seen this in your mind's eye. I believe you. That's why I used the word Tangible.

    Maybe "witness-faith"?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,658

    Hah.


    She's like a less attractive version of Kate Middleton. That gives hope I think.
    As we are past the lagershed...


  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,312

    Hah.


    She's like a less attractive version of Kate Middleton. That gives hope I think.
    She’s prettier for sure.
    She's very pretty - if we're being picky she's got a weak chin, a fairly prominent schnozz and slightly equine teeth.
    I think the phrase you are looking for is “a bit horsey.”
    I went to school with a classmate who happened to be called Mark Phillips. My RE teacher kept on asking him "You're the one wot married a horse, aren't you?"

    :lol:
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,237
    japc said:

    Leon said:

    japc said:

    Leon said:

    Having taken ayahuasca twice (and for other reasons) I am utterly convinced there is a much much deeper layer of reality; where consciousness entwines with the universe in some kind of divinely glittering double helix. A descending baroque staircase of beauty and meaning, made of the diamonds of time

    Do I “know” this? Not in any scientific way. Do I believe this? No, it is more than “belief”

    So what is the word? There isn’t one. But I have seen this and it is the case

    Faith is the word. A belief in something for which there is no tangible evidence.
    No, I have SEEN this

    Perhaps that’s it. I don’t believe in god or know god exists nor do I have a mere faith in a god: I have WITNESSED God (or the divine or another reality or whatever you want to call it).
    You have seen this in your mind's eye. I believe you. That's why I used the word Tangible.

    Maybe "witness-faith"?
    It’s interesting that English apparently lacks the precise word
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,679

    O/T I came across an interesting issue today at CAB. It's a bit long but I have a PB brains trust question at the end. I can obviously only share the general details but in essence:

    - This person was subject to a clever phishing attack late last year and unwittingly gave the scammers enough information to guess her password and access her bank account.
    - As she is relatively poor the scammers couldn't pinch much money from her already heavily overdrawn account.
    - Her high street bank spotted the unusual activity and quickly cancelled her debit card, made her change her online password, and refunded the fraudulent transactions (well done them).
    - In the meantime the scammers, presumably realising the account was empty, used the victim's personal details to arrange a £5,000 loan from a well-known online loans platform that lends to clients with poor credit ratings.
    - Sadly for the scammers, by the time the loan arrived in the victim's account they were locked out.

    So far, so straighforward. At this point simply contact the lender, get them to cancel the loan and return the £5,000 - sorted.

    Unfortunately though, the individual is not great with money, she is poor and heavily overdrawn. Or rather was - but now the overdraft has been cleared and there's a thousand or so to spare in the account.

    Not pretending (or really wanting) to know how that's happened she decided to clear one or two overdue bills and before you know it the £5,000 has completely gone.

    Then she realises that she's on the hook for £190 pm repayments to the lender (at 48% APR ffs!), that she can't afford. For five years.

    So, what to do?

    She can't pay back the principal (it's certain her bank will not be so generous with her overdraft this time round).

    Should she approach the lender explain the situation, get them to cancel the loan, and offer to pay it back at what she can afford (£20pm max), ideally with no interest? That'll take over 20 years btw, much longer if the insist on interest.

    If she takes debt advice and she'll probably be led to a Debt Relief Order, which would clear this, her only debt. Lender loses out but fuck it - 48% APR, they must expect some losses.

    Bottom line is, she never took out the loan - though she has spent the money, of course.

    Any ideas?

    She didn't take out the loan, so it should be cancelled.

    If a debt relied order is needed, so be it, at any APR some losses are factored in let alone a 48% one.
    If she ends up opting for a DRO there's no real point in cancelling the loan, cos she won't be paying it anyway, but I think the reasonable thing to do would be to explain the situation to them. (I did wonder about asking them to refund the three £190 repayments they have already direct debited. :smile: )
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626
    .
    Leon said:

    japc said:

    Leon said:

    Having taken ayahuasca twice (and for other reasons) I am utterly convinced there is a much much deeper layer of reality; where consciousness entwines with the universe in some kind of divinely glittering double helix. A descending baroque staircase of beauty and meaning, made of the diamonds of time

    Do I “know” this? Not in any scientific way. Do I believe this? No, it is more than “belief”

    So what is the word? There isn’t one. But I have seen this and it is the case

    Faith is the word. A belief in something for which there is no tangible evidence.
    No, I have SEEN this

    Perhaps that’s it. I don’t believe in god or know god exists nor do I have a mere faith in a god: I have WITNESSED God (or the divine or another reality or whatever you want to call it).
    You have SEEN it, having ingested a powerful hallucinogenic.
    All that demonstrates is the power of your imagination. Which we know is quite creative.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,461
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Having taken ayahuasca twice (and for other reasons) I am utterly convinced there is a much much deeper layer of reality; where consciousness entwines with the universe in some kind of divinely glittering double helix. A descending baroque staircase of beauty and meaning, made of the diamonds of time

    Do I “know” this? Not in any scientific way. Do I believe this? No, it is more than “belief”

    So what is the word? There isn’t one. But I have seen this and it is the case

    “double helix”

    Isn’t it scientifically proven the Strands of DNA entwine in certain way by singing song to each other?

    If you are unaware of this science it’s spooky you used this phrase after ayahuasca
    What? They sing?? Yes I was unaware of this

    Are you having a laugh?!
    Sounds like the kind of thing Professor Brian Cox might say in a Blockbuster Sunday Night Science Documentary.

    Trying to think what it might mean. The two strands certainly interact, which is neat from a copying point of view.
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,210

    O/T I came across an interesting issue today at CAB. It's a bit long but I have a PB brains trust question at the end. I can obviously only share the general details but in essence:

    - This person was subject to a clever phishing attack late last year and unwittingly gave the scammers enough information to guess her password and access her bank account.
    - As she is relatively poor the scammers couldn't pinch much money from her already heavily overdrawn account.
    - Her high street bank spotted the unusual activity and quickly cancelled her debit card, made her change her online password, and refunded the fraudulent transactions (well done them).
    - In the meantime the scammers, presumably realising the account was empty, used the victim's personal details to arrange a £5,000 loan from a well-known online loans platform that lends to clients with poor credit ratings.
    - Sadly for the scammers, by the time the loan arrived in the victim's account they were locked out.

    So far, so straighforward. At this point simply contact the lender, get them to cancel the loan and return the £5,000 - sorted.

    Unfortunately though, the individual is not great with money, she is poor and heavily overdrawn. Or rather was - but now the overdraft has been cleared and there's a thousand or so to spare in the account.

    Not pretending (or really wanting) to know how that's happened she decided to clear one or two overdue bills and before you know it the £5,000 has completely gone.

    Then she realises that she's on the hook for £190 pm repayments to the lender (at 48% APR ffs!), that she can't afford. For five years.

    So, what to do?

    She can't pay back the principal (it's certain her bank will not be so generous with her overdraft this time round).

    Should she approach the lender explain the situation, get them to cancel the loan, and offer to pay it back at what she can afford (£20pm max), ideally with no interest? That'll take over 20 years btw, much longer if the insist on interest.

    If she takes debt advice and she'll probably be led to a Debt Relief Order, which would clear this, her only debt. Lender loses out but fuck it - 48% APR, they must expect some losses.

    Bottom line is, she never took out the loan - though she has spent the money, of course.

    Any ideas?

    Needs PB legal brains but strikes me maybe the loan is legally invalid as she did not agree to arrange it.

    But once she found out, was she acting illegally by spending it? Whether the number in the bank account increased from £50 to £5050 or £-4000 to £1000. She should get legal advice first to cover her back, surely? (Not a lawyer).
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626
    mwadams said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Is that...real? I mean it isn't a spoof or anything?
    So I’m currently writing a paper on some research I have been getting my group to do, involving anti cancer properties from some novel capsaicinoids (think capsaicin and other compounds from chillies, but made more potent by modifications). I did my lit review last week, found around 15 papers that looked relevant for the background/intro and then screened them down to 6 which are relevant.
    I then played with Chatgpt. It produced a thousand words of fluff around the subject. No detail, no references, no actual science. I can see why it scares the crap out of our resident journalist - it seems competent at spitting out fluff already. But for serious scientific argument? I could use the basic structure and modify, but to be honest I wrote the draft intro over a couple of hours and it includes around twenty accurate citations.
    It may (and surely will get better). But at the moment it’s miles away from replacing me (long may that continue…)
    Claude 3 is significantly better than ChatGPT. And GPT4 - which is the basis of ChatGPT - will likely be superseded this summer by GPT5. Which some claim is a huge leap in capability, some even claim it is AGI

    It’s coming
    Will Claude 4 run the Labour Party ?
    Are you suggesting Starmer will have his Claude 4 moment?
    It would be Nvidias for me to comment.
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,210
    carnforth said:

    O/T I came across an interesting issue today at CAB. It's a bit long but I have a PB brains trust question at the end. I can obviously only share the general details but in essence:

    - This person was subject to a clever phishing attack late last year and unwittingly gave the scammers enough information to guess her password and access her bank account.
    - As she is relatively poor the scammers couldn't pinch much money from her already heavily overdrawn account.
    - Her high street bank spotted the unusual activity and quickly cancelled her debit card, made her change her online password, and refunded the fraudulent transactions (well done them).
    - In the meantime the scammers, presumably realising the account was empty, used the victim's personal details to arrange a £5,000 loan from a well-known online loans platform that lends to clients with poor credit ratings.
    - Sadly for the scammers, by the time the loan arrived in the victim's account they were locked out.

    So far, so straighforward. At this point simply contact the lender, get them to cancel the loan and return the £5,000 - sorted.

    Unfortunately though, the individual is not great with money, she is poor and heavily overdrawn. Or rather was - but now the overdraft has been cleared and there's a thousand or so to spare in the account.

    Not pretending (or really wanting) to know how that's happened she decided to clear one or two overdue bills and before you know it the £5,000 has completely gone.

    Then she realises that she's on the hook for £190 pm repayments to the lender (at 48% APR ffs!), that she can't afford. For five years.

    So, what to do?

    She can't pay back the principal (it's certain her bank will not be so generous with her overdraft this time round).

    Should she approach the lender explain the situation, get them to cancel the loan, and offer to pay it back at what she can afford (£20pm max), ideally with no interest? That'll take over 20 years btw, much longer if the insist on interest.

    If she takes debt advice and she'll probably be led to a Debt Relief Order, which would clear this, her only debt. Lender loses out but fuck it - 48% APR, they must expect some losses.

    Bottom line is, she never took out the loan - though she has spent the money, of course.

    Any ideas?

    Needs PB legal brains but strikes me maybe the loan is legally invalid as she did not agree to arrange it.

    But once she found out, was she acting illegally by spending it? Whether the number in the bank account increased from £50 to £5050 or £-4000 to £1000. She should get legal advice first to cover her back, surely? (Not a lawyer).
    Once she tells the lender of the fraud, her subsequent behaviour looks bad, is my point.
  • Options
    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,796
    geoffw said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Is that...real? I mean it isn't a spoof or anything?
    So I’m currently writing a paper on some research I have been getting my group to do, involving anti cancer properties from some novel capsaicinoids (think capsaicin and other compounds from chillies, but made more potent by modifications). I did my lit review last week, found around 15 papers that looked relevant for the background/intro and then screened them down to 6 which are relevant.
    I then played with Chatgpt. It produced a thousand words of fluff around the subject. No detail, no references, no actual science. I can see why it scares the crap out of our resident journalist - it seems competent at spitting out fluff already. But for serious scientific argument? I could use the basic structure and modify, but to be honest I wrote the draft intro over a couple of hours and it includes around twenty accurate citations.
    It may (and surely will get better). But at the moment it’s miles away from replacing me (long may that continue…)
    Claude 3 is significantly better than ChatGPT. And GPT4 - which is the basis of ChatGPT - will likely be superseded this summer by GPT5. Which some claim is a huge leap in capability, some even claim it is AGI

    It’s coming
    Will Claude 4 run the Labour Party ?
    There will come a point when A.I. (whether it is sentient or not) will be obviously better at making vastly complex political-economic decisions. It will be better because it will be able to draw on near-infinite amounts of data at incredible speed - and hugely better at extrapolating the outcomes (the same way it is now superior at chess and Go - Ai can think much further ahead)

    At this point, if logic prevails, we should hand over most governance to the machines. This juncture could easily arrive in the next 5 years
    Could be a Platonic nirvana

    I tried it out again and found that GPT is some way off being any use in my work. It is excellent at persuasive reasoning but can't wade through detail.


  • Options
    japcjapc Posts: 5
    Leon said:

    japc said:

    Leon said:

    japc said:

    Leon said:

    Having taken ayahuasca twice (and for other reasons) I am utterly convinced there is a much much deeper layer of reality; where consciousness entwines with the universe in some kind of divinely glittering double helix. A descending baroque staircase of beauty and meaning, made of the diamonds of time

    Do I “know” this? Not in any scientific way. Do I believe this? No, it is more than “belief”

    So what is the word? There isn’t one. But I have seen this and it is the case

    Faith is the word. A belief in something for which there is no tangible evidence.
    No, I have SEEN this

    Perhaps that’s it. I don’t believe in god or know god exists nor do I have a mere faith in a god: I have WITNESSED God (or the divine or another reality or whatever you want to call it).
    You have seen this in your mind's eye. I believe you. That's why I used the word Tangible.

    Maybe "witness-faith"?
    It’s interesting that English apparently lacks the precise word
    I suspect there may be a German word for this. But I did Latin, not German. Hopefully we can, between us, either find or create an appropriate German word...
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,237
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    japc said:

    Leon said:

    Having taken ayahuasca twice (and for other reasons) I am utterly convinced there is a much much deeper layer of reality; where consciousness entwines with the universe in some kind of divinely glittering double helix. A descending baroque staircase of beauty and meaning, made of the diamonds of time

    Do I “know” this? Not in any scientific way. Do I believe this? No, it is more than “belief”

    So what is the word? There isn’t one. But I have seen this and it is the case

    Faith is the word. A belief in something for which there is no tangible evidence.
    No, I have SEEN this

    Perhaps that’s it. I don’t believe in god or know god exists nor do I have a mere faith in a god: I have WITNESSED God (or the divine or another reality or whatever you want to call it).
    You have SEEN it, having ingested a powerful hallucinogenic.
    All that demonstrates is the power of your imagination. Which we know is quite creative.
    I’m not going to argue over what I personally witnessed and you didn’t. Let’s leave it there

    However I will note that a lot of people - even the most atheistic of atheists - find ayahuasca a profoundly spiritual experience and a fair few of them become convinced “believers” after taking it

  • Options
    Still time for Rishi to call the election?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,237
    I am now going to display my faith in the barbers of Palomino Colombia by asking them to give me a haircut when none of them speak English and they basically use spoons
  • Options
    RattersRatters Posts: 780
    There's something peculiar about Britain in that we can shy away from our strengths.

    London and the South East is a strength. There are a huge number of highly productive sectors in the capital with some companies in satellite locations in the area. There are a large number of commuter towns with fast trains into London that are of a modest size and could be easily expanded if the political will existed.

    Lots of people want to live in the region. Build and they shall come.
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,844
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    japc said:

    Leon said:

    Having taken ayahuasca twice (and for other reasons) I am utterly convinced there is a much much deeper layer of reality; where consciousness entwines with the universe in some kind of divinely glittering double helix. A descending baroque staircase of beauty and meaning, made of the diamonds of time

    Do I “know” this? Not in any scientific way. Do I believe this? No, it is more than “belief”

    So what is the word? There isn’t one. But I have seen this and it is the case

    Faith is the word. A belief in something for which there is no tangible evidence.
    No, I have SEEN this

    Perhaps that’s it. I don’t believe in god or know god exists nor do I have a mere faith in a god: I have WITNESSED God (or the divine or another reality or whatever you want to call it).
    You have SEEN it, having ingested a powerful hallucinogenic.
    All that demonstrates is the power of your imagination. Which we know is quite creative.
    I’m not going to argue over what I personally witnessed and you didn’t. Let’s leave it there

    However I will note that a lot of people - even the most atheistic of atheists - find ayahuasca a profoundly spiritual experience and a fair few of them become convinced “believers” after taking it

    lsd had much the same effect as did psilocybin
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    japc said:

    Leon said:

    Having taken ayahuasca twice (and for other reasons) I am utterly convinced there is a much much deeper layer of reality; where consciousness entwines with the universe in some kind of divinely glittering double helix. A descending baroque staircase of beauty and meaning, made of the diamonds of time

    Do I “know” this? Not in any scientific way. Do I believe this? No, it is more than “belief”

    So what is the word? There isn’t one. But I have seen this and it is the case

    Faith is the word. A belief in something for which there is no tangible evidence.
    No, I have SEEN this

    Perhaps that’s it. I don’t believe in god or know god exists nor do I have a mere faith in a god: I have WITNESSED God (or the divine or another reality or whatever you want to call it).
    You have SEEN it, having ingested a powerful hallucinogenic.
    All that demonstrates is the power of your imagination. Which we know is quite creative.
    I’m not going to argue over what I personally witnessed and you didn’t. Let’s leave it there

    However I will note that a lot of people - even the most atheistic of atheists - find ayahuasca a profoundly spiritual experience and a fair few of them become convinced “believers” after taking it

    I'm not judging either way - simply pointing out that your experience isn't evidence of any kind of persuasiveness for the rest of us.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,679
    carnforth said:

    O/T I came across an interesting issue today at CAB. It's a bit long but I have a PB brains trust question at the end. I can obviously only share the general details but in essence:

    - This person was subject to a clever phishing attack late last year and unwittingly gave the scammers enough information to guess her password and access her bank account.
    - As she is relatively poor the scammers couldn't pinch much money from her already heavily overdrawn account.
    - Her high street bank spotted the unusual activity and quickly cancelled her debit card, made her change her online password, and refunded the fraudulent transactions (well done them).
    - In the meantime the scammers, presumably realising the account was empty, used the victim's personal details to arrange a £5,000 loan from a well-known online loans platform that lends to clients with poor credit ratings.
    - Sadly for the scammers, by the time the loan arrived in the victim's account they were locked out.

    So far, so straighforward. At this point simply contact the lender, get them to cancel the loan and return the £5,000 - sorted.

    Unfortunately though, the individual is not great with money, she is poor and heavily overdrawn. Or rather was - but now the overdraft has been cleared and there's a thousand or so to spare in the account.

    Not pretending (or really wanting) to know how that's happened she decided to clear one or two overdue bills and before you know it the £5,000 has completely gone.

    Then she realises that she's on the hook for £190 pm repayments to the lender (at 48% APR ffs!), that she can't afford. For five years.

    So, what to do?

    She can't pay back the principal (it's certain her bank will not be so generous with her overdraft this time round).

    Should she approach the lender explain the situation, get them to cancel the loan, and offer to pay it back at what she can afford (£20pm max), ideally with no interest? That'll take over 20 years btw, much longer if the insist on interest.

    If she takes debt advice and she'll probably be led to a Debt Relief Order, which would clear this, her only debt. Lender loses out but fuck it - 48% APR, they must expect some losses.

    Bottom line is, she never took out the loan - though she has spent the money, of course.

    Any ideas?

    Needs PB legal brains but strikes me maybe the loan is legally invalid as she did not agree to arrange it.

    But once she found out, was she acting illegally by spending it? Whether the number in the bank account increased from £50 to £5050 or £-4000 to £1000. She should get legal advice first to cover her back, surely? (Not a lawyer).
    It's an interesting point and if correct, she'd be better not mentioning the fraud, just defaulting on the loan. Although, what if the loan had taken her over draft from -£6,000 to -£1,000, and the bank won't let her have a larger overdraft back again? Has she 'spent' the money then since it would have happened completely without her knowledge.

    (PS She can't afford legal advice of course.)
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626
    Leon said:

    I am now going to display my faith in the barbers of Palomino Colombia by asking them to give me a haircut when none of them speak English and they basically use spoons

    At least it's not cutthroat razors.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,416
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Having taken ayahuasca twice (and for other reasons) I am utterly convinced there is a much much deeper layer of reality; where consciousness entwines with the universe in some kind of divinely glittering double helix. A descending baroque staircase of beauty and meaning, made of the diamonds of time

    Do I “know” this? Not in any scientific way. Do I believe this? No, it is more than “belief”

    So what is the word? There isn’t one. But I have seen this and it is the case

    “double helix”

    Isn’t it scientifically proven the Strands of DNA entwine in certain way by singing song to each other?

    If you are unaware of this science it’s spooky you used this phrase after ayahuasca
    What? They sing?? Yes I was unaware of this

    Are you having a laugh?!
    No it’s true.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protein_music#:~:text=Pink noise (the correlation structure,to music, it sounds musical.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/dna-makes-sweet-music/#

    Certainly terms of seeing we don’t see reality with all the filters our DNA switched on, and things like those drugs mess with the brain filters for sure, but they probably mess with the sound filters too - there’s probably a background noise DNA switches off because we don’t need to constantly hear it, gets in tge way of hunting gathering and you subconsciously heard it and recognised it for what it was. The two strands of your own DNA singing tge song what made you.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,237
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    japc said:

    Leon said:

    Having taken ayahuasca twice (and for other reasons) I am utterly convinced there is a much much deeper layer of reality; where consciousness entwines with the universe in some kind of divinely glittering double helix. A descending baroque staircase of beauty and meaning, made of the diamonds of time

    Do I “know” this? Not in any scientific way. Do I believe this? No, it is more than “belief”

    So what is the word? There isn’t one. But I have seen this and it is the case

    Faith is the word. A belief in something for which there is no tangible evidence.
    No, I have SEEN this

    Perhaps that’s it. I don’t believe in god or know god exists nor do I have a mere faith in a god: I have WITNESSED God (or the divine or another reality or whatever you want to call it).
    You have SEEN it, having ingested a powerful hallucinogenic.
    All that demonstrates is the power of your imagination. Which we know is quite creative.
    I’m not going to argue over what I personally witnessed and you didn’t. Let’s leave it there

    However I will note that a lot of people - even the most atheistic of atheists - find ayahuasca a profoundly spiritual experience and a fair few of them become convinced “believers” after taking it

    I'm not judging either way - simply pointing out that your experience isn't evidence of any kind of persuasiveness for the rest of us.
    No, I accept that

    However my point about ayahuasca being spiritual for many people - often to their own surprise - is worth addressing

    Nor is this spirituality cheaply won. Ayahuasca is always scary, often physically painful (vomiting and the shits), can be extremely distressing, it is sometimes the cause of breakdowns, and death is not unknown
  • Options
    DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 532
    edited March 20
    Has anyone posted here about the unexpected resignation of the head of government of the country next door?

    Apparently he was in the USA for St Patrick's Day and met Biden.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,202
    Donkeys said:

    Has anyone posted here about the unexpected resignation of the head of government of the country next door?

    Sturgeon? That was ages ago…
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,210

    carnforth said:

    O/T I came across an interesting issue today at CAB. It's a bit long but I have a PB brains trust question at the end. I can obviously only share the general details but in essence:

    - This person was subject to a clever phishing attack late last year and unwittingly gave the scammers enough information to guess her password and access her bank account.
    - As she is relatively poor the scammers couldn't pinch much money from her already heavily overdrawn account.
    - Her high street bank spotted the unusual activity and quickly cancelled her debit card, made her change her online password, and refunded the fraudulent transactions (well done them).
    - In the meantime the scammers, presumably realising the account was empty, used the victim's personal details to arrange a £5,000 loan from a well-known online loans platform that lends to clients with poor credit ratings.
    - Sadly for the scammers, by the time the loan arrived in the victim's account they were locked out.

    So far, so straighforward. At this point simply contact the lender, get them to cancel the loan and return the £5,000 - sorted.

    Unfortunately though, the individual is not great with money, she is poor and heavily overdrawn. Or rather was - but now the overdraft has been cleared and there's a thousand or so to spare in the account.

    Not pretending (or really wanting) to know how that's happened she decided to clear one or two overdue bills and before you know it the £5,000 has completely gone.

    Then she realises that she's on the hook for £190 pm repayments to the lender (at 48% APR ffs!), that she can't afford. For five years.

    So, what to do?

    She can't pay back the principal (it's certain her bank will not be so generous with her overdraft this time round).

    Should she approach the lender explain the situation, get them to cancel the loan, and offer to pay it back at what she can afford (£20pm max), ideally with no interest? That'll take over 20 years btw, much longer if the insist on interest.

    If she takes debt advice and she'll probably be led to a Debt Relief Order, which would clear this, her only debt. Lender loses out but fuck it - 48% APR, they must expect some losses.

    Bottom line is, she never took out the loan - though she has spent the money, of course.

    Any ideas?

    Needs PB legal brains but strikes me maybe the loan is legally invalid as she did not agree to arrange it.

    But once she found out, was she acting illegally by spending it? Whether the number in the bank account increased from £50 to £5050 or £-4000 to £1000. She should get legal advice first to cover her back, surely? (Not a lawyer).
    It's an interesting point and if correct, she'd be better not mentioning the fraud, just defaulting on the loan. Although, what if the loan had taken her over draft from -£6,000 to -£1,000, and the bank won't let her have a larger overdraft back again? Has she 'spent' the money then since it would have happened completely without her knowledge.

    (PS She can't afford legal advice of course.)
    An overdraft is a facility - it doesn’t normally change.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    japc said:

    Leon said:

    Having taken ayahuasca twice (and for other reasons) I am utterly convinced there is a much much deeper layer of reality; where consciousness entwines with the universe in some kind of divinely glittering double helix. A descending baroque staircase of beauty and meaning, made of the diamonds of time

    Do I “know” this? Not in any scientific way. Do I believe this? No, it is more than “belief”

    So what is the word? There isn’t one. But I have seen this and it is the case

    Faith is the word. A belief in something for which there is no tangible evidence.
    No, I have SEEN this

    Perhaps that’s it. I don’t believe in god or know god exists nor do I have a mere faith in a god: I have WITNESSED God (or the divine or another reality or whatever you want to call it).
    You have SEEN it, having ingested a powerful hallucinogenic.
    All that demonstrates is the power of your imagination. Which we know is quite creative.
    I’m not going to argue over what I personally witnessed and you didn’t. Let’s leave it there

    However I will note that a lot of people - even the most atheistic of atheists - find ayahuasca a profoundly spiritual experience and a fair few of them become convinced “believers” after taking it

    I'm not judging either way - simply pointing out that your experience isn't evidence of any kind of persuasiveness for the rest of us.
    No, I accept that

    However my point about ayahuasca being spiritual for many people - often to their own surprise - is worth addressing

    Nor is this spirituality cheaply won. Ayahuasca is always scary, often physically painful (vomiting and the shits), can be extremely distressing, it is sometimes the cause of breakdowns, and death is not unknown
    That's not selling it to me.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,182
    edited March 20

    Taz said:

    Hah.


    It's pronounced "Chumley", as in the Harry Enfield Show character Mr Cholmondeley-Warner.
    Hello Grayson.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LS37SNYjg8w
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNa1RYgV17o
    Cracking stuff. Harry Enfield and Paul Whitehouse, as a double act Are chronically underrated.

    Harry and Paul was an excellent show as well. Doesn’t seem to be on the TV much these days. Perhaps he’s retired.

    Here’s a favourite of mine of his.

    https://youtu.be/Zh9XzFhGI8g?si=qBRGu0MScGxD_DKY
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,679

    Still time for Rishi to call the election?

    Yes.

    He's got until the 17th December 2024 at the absolute latest to call an election (and dissolve parliament the same day) for a 28th January 2025 election.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,869
    Red Wall voters wish there was someone else other than Sunak and SKS

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1770567073812361532
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,182
    Ratters said:

    There's something peculiar about Britain in that we can shy away from our strengths.

    London and the South East is a strength. There are a huge number of highly productive sectors in the capital with some companies in satellite locations in the area. There are a large number of commuter towns with fast trains into London that are of a modest size and could be easily expanded if the political will existed.

    Lots of people want to live in the region. Build and they shall come.

    Build up too. It’s all very low density.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,202

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Having taken ayahuasca twice (and for other reasons) I am utterly convinced there is a much much deeper layer of reality; where consciousness entwines with the universe in some kind of divinely glittering double helix. A descending baroque staircase of beauty and meaning, made of the diamonds of time

    Do I “know” this? Not in any scientific way. Do I believe this? No, it is more than “belief”

    So what is the word? There isn’t one. But I have seen this and it is the case

    “double helix”

    Isn’t it scientifically proven the Strands of DNA entwine in certain way by singing song to each other?

    If you are unaware of this science it’s spooky you used this phrase after ayahuasca
    What? They sing?? Yes I was unaware of this

    Are you having a laugh?!
    No it’s true.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protein_music#:~:text=Pink noise (the correlation structure,to music, it sounds musical.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/dna-makes-sweet-music/#

    Certainly terms of seeing we don’t see reality with all the filters our DNA switched on, and things like those drugs mess with the brain filters for sure, but they probably mess with the sound filters too - there’s probably a background noise DNA switches off because we don’t need to constantly hear it, gets in tge way of hunting gathering and you subconsciously heard it and recognised it for what it was. The two strands of your own DNA singing tge song what made you.
    Are you high? I’ve not seen this much drivel since I last marked first year exams…
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,249
    The Cook Political Report, which has tracked the gritty day-to-day of politics for four decades, will put its entire archive online tomorrow, offering a remarkable and nonpartisan window into modern American political history.

    https://www.semafor.com/article/03/17/2024/a-new-archive-of-modern-american-political-history
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    DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 532
    edited March 20
    Leon said:

    japc said:

    Leon said:

    japc said:

    Leon said:

    Having taken ayahuasca twice (and for other reasons) I am utterly convinced there is a much much deeper layer of reality; where consciousness entwines with the universe in some kind of divinely glittering double helix. A descending baroque staircase of beauty and meaning, made of the diamonds of time

    Do I “know” this? Not in any scientific way. Do I believe this? No, it is more than “belief”

    So what is the word? There isn’t one. But I have seen this and it is the case

    Faith is the word. A belief in something for which there is no tangible evidence.
    No, I have SEEN this

    Perhaps that’s it. I don’t believe in god or know god exists nor do I have a mere faith in a god: I have WITNESSED God (or the divine or another reality or whatever you want to call it).
    You have seen this in your mind's eye. I believe you. That's why I used the word Tangible.

    Maybe "witness-faith"?
    It’s interesting that English apparently lacks the precise word
    "Knowledge" is the English word:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJD9smeA-HA

    (FWIW I am not a Jungian, but I believe in giving credit where it's due.)
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,237

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Having taken ayahuasca twice (and for other reasons) I am utterly convinced there is a much much deeper layer of reality; where consciousness entwines with the universe in some kind of divinely glittering double helix. A descending baroque staircase of beauty and meaning, made of the diamonds of time

    Do I “know” this? Not in any scientific way. Do I believe this? No, it is more than “belief”

    So what is the word? There isn’t one. But I have seen this and it is the case

    “double helix”

    Isn’t it scientifically proven the Strands of DNA entwine in certain way by singing song to each other?

    If you are unaware of this science it’s spooky you used this phrase after ayahuasca
    What? They sing?? Yes I was unaware of this

    Are you having a laugh?!
    No it’s true.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protein_music#:~:text=Pink noise (the correlation structure,to music, it sounds musical.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/dna-makes-sweet-music/#

    Certainly terms of seeing we don’t see reality with all the filters our DNA switched on, and things like those drugs mess with the brain filters for sure, but they probably mess with the sound filters too - there’s probably a background noise DNA switches off because we don’t need to constantly hear it, gets in tge way of hunting gathering and you subconsciously heard it and recognised it for what it was. The two strands of your own DNA singing tge song what made you.
    Fascinating

    I absolutely believe ayahuasca throws open the doors of perception. All the reality that is normally filtered out - because we don’t need it to survive as am omnivorous but vulnerable ape on the plains of
    Africa - suddenly surges in. It is a flood of super reality - magnificent but terrifying - and I can see how you could drown. I can see why we filter it out. It is unnecessary and REALLY distracting

    You’d get eaten by a leopard if you saw all that all the time, standing there like a star struck dork under the acacia
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