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Ayrshire hotelier’s troubles mount – politicalbetting.com

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  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,868
    edited March 2024
    Eabhal said:

    Good point on XL Bullies - this guy in Newcastle was arrested for murder by dog:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/oct/04/man-killed-by-dog-believed-to-be-xl-bully-near-sunderland
    Describing Houghton -le-Spring, Sunderland as "in Newcastle" is likely to instigate violence in itself.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,867
    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK
    🚨 NEW: Tory MPs claim 40 letters of no confidence in Rishi Sunak have been submitted - just 13 short of the required 53 for a confidence vote

    Senior Tory MP: "They will move against him this week"

    [
    @christopherhope
    ]

    The thing is, Penny is universally loved by the nation. Starmer is despised. I was listening to the callers on LBC. Could she overturn the polls?

    But is she merely a stalking horse for some mad b@stard?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766
    pigeon said:

    Don't forget all those dreadful diversity and inclusion officers whom the Chancellor has identified as being an important driver of the impending collapse in England's entire system of local government.

    Getting rid of them all would've saved 0.02% of the budget of Birmingham City Council. Or 0.00% of that of stricken Thurrock. Transformative sums, I'm sure we'll all agree.
    It's post like that that explain why we have a productivity problem. If you were in a factory and had reduced your costs by 0.02% you'd call it a good days work. You'd then go off and look for another 0.02% tomorrow,
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,278
    moonshine said:

    Was on a narrow boat once that a caiman went for from underneath. Bit of a racy moment. If you go out at night with a torch, watch out for the pairs of red eyes staring back.

    OOOOOOOH

    Exciting.

    Right I’m having a swim in a rather rough looking Caribbean
  • Leon said:

    Twitter is claiming that the law does not recognise an attempted homicide if you use a vehicle. Which, if true, is bloody stupid. A car is clearly a dangerous thing if used with intent, as much as a knife, a hammer or an XL Bully

    But Twitter may be wrong: I understand this is not unknown
    Twitter is wrong.

    As normal.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg3q11j9qn7o
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,868
    Leon said:

    If you repeatedly ram someone with a car you are highly likely to kill them. Just as if you repeatedly smash someone in the head with a claw hammer

    What’s the difference?

    I you try to kill someone with a hammer and come mightily close and, as you do that, in your frenzy you also smash someone else in the head giving them critical injuries you should not get a jail sentence where you are out within 2 years

    Truly bizarre

    And yet we have a "War on Motorists" apparently.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,946
    edited March 2024

    No, there's a difference between a secondary effect that you know about and a primary intention.

    If the intention is to get from A to B and something else happens as a consequence that's an externality.

    If the intention is to attempt to kill someone, then that's not.
    It extends beyond deliberate actions though. In no other part of life would negligent or dangerous use of a heavy piece of machinery, that leads to serious injury or death, be treated so lightly by the courts.

    It's not part of the "war on motorists", because car occupants are often the victims of such behaviour themselves. Particularly where I grew up.
  • It's going to be a May election.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    I don’t believe there are anywhere near 40 letters . This looks like desperate hopecasting from a few disgruntled Tory MPs .
  • Eabhal said:

    It's a well known phenomenon.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/17/motonormativity-britons-more-accepting-driving-related-risk
    The public is entirely reasonable with all of those responses.

    Only an insane fanatic would contrast driving a vehicle with smoking.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,946

    The public is entirely reasonable with all of those responses.

    Only an insane fanatic would contrast driving a vehicle with smoking.
    Proves the article correct, that response.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,757
    nico679 said:

    I don’t believe there are anywhere near 40 letters . This looks like desperate hopecasting from a few disgruntled Tory MPs .

    With the Tories dropping to 20% in some polls, I can believe they are going to be desperate enough for one final roll of the dice so I do think there will be a move against Rishi at some point before the election (how successful it is remains to be seen)

    Let the chaos continue...
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,126

    One for the legal chaps - why wasn’t he charged with attempted murder?
    It's a cultural thing. Killing someone with a car doesn't count.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    Leon said:

    If you repeatedly ram someone with a car you are highly likely to kill them. Just as if you repeatedly smash someone in the head with a claw hammer

    What’s the difference?

    I you try to kill someone with a hammer and come mightily close and, as you do that, in your frenzy you also smash someone else in the head giving them critical injuries you should not get a jail sentence where you are out within 2 years

    Truly bizarre

    Yes, watching that video it's hard to understand how that doesn't qualify as attempted murder:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/mar/18/man-jailed-ramming-motorcyclist-milton-keynes-bridge-extreme-road-rage
  • Eabhal said:

    It extends beyond deliberate actions though. In no other part of life would negligent or dangerous use of a heavy piece of machinery, that leads to serious injury or death, be treated so lightly by the courts.

    It's not part of the "war on motorists", because car occupants are often the victims of such behaviour themselves. Particularly where I grew up.
    The courts take things lightly all the damn time sadly.

    I was hospitalised in an assault that shattered my eye socket, broke my nose and could have left me blind or worse and the perpetrator who had a string of past convictions as long as his arm got a six month sentence and would have been out after a couple of months if that.

    My home was broken into, I caught the perp red handed, who was arrested (thanks to his getaway vehicle incidentally, I got the reg plate which was the evidence that convicted him). He had prior convictions again as long as his arm and confessed to 19 other burglaries at the hearing ... and was given a suspended sentence. No time served at all.

    If you think the courts aren't lenient except when it comes to vehicles, you've just not been paying attention.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,321
    Leon said:

    If you repeatedly ram someone with a car you are highly likely to kill them. Just as if you repeatedly smash someone in the head with a claw hammer

    What’s the difference?

    I you try to kill someone with a hammer and come mightily close and, as you do that, in your frenzy you also smash someone else in the head giving them critical injuries you should not get a jail sentence where you are out within 2 years

    Truly bizarre

    Malice aforethought is what this concept used to be called...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,419

    It's post like that that explain why we have a productivity problem. If you were in a factory and had reduced your costs by 0.02% you'd call it a good days work. You'd then go off and look for another 0.02% tomorrow,
    It's also unlikely to be the entire picture. Does the calculation include their pension costs? Does it take into account the cost and impact of their work - awareness campaigns, recruitment delays, training initiatives etc?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    GIN1138 said:

    With the Tories dropping to 20% in some polls, I can believe they are going to be desperate enough for one final roll of the dice so I do think there will be a move against Rishi at some point before the election (how successful it is remains to be seen)

    Let the chaos continue...
    No, please, nine years is enough already. Let the chaos end.
  • He’s going to have to call an election, this simply cannot carry on.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,126
    Eabhal said:

    If it were a knife, for example... there is a bit of a blind spot in the courts/police/CPS when it comes to stuff like this.
    Also juries. Majority of the population drives, and has probably cut things a bit fine once or twice. They'll think they could be in the dock in the future if they're unlucky.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,018

    Ben Riley-Smith
    @benrileysmith
    ·
    21m
    NEW

    Penny Mordaunt has built up a £26,000 campaigning war chest from donations since Rishi Sunak became PM, as speculation continues about whether he could be toppled.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,669
    GIN1138 said:

    #HereWeGoAgain
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=H6-IQAdFU3w
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,400
    @christopherhope
    My analysis for
    @GBNEWS


    "I think it could happen this week," said the senior Tory MP to me. "What?" I asked. "They will move against him." Unbelievably, after two bouts of regicide, Conservative MPs are gearing for a third, as soon as this week.
    Tory MPs are in despair about their lack lustre poll ratings and repeated attempts by Rishi Sunak to grab the initiative (in the past seven months a Conference speech, a King's Speech, an Autumn statement and a Budget have all failed to work).
    So the big question is what happens next. The MP could see two options: Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 committee, leads a delegation to No10 to read the riot act. "But I am not sure that will work," the MP told me.
    The second option is more alarming for Tories: that enough no confidence letters are submitted in Sunak's leadership to past the 53 threshold to trigger a vote of no confidence in his leadership.
    This latter option is the more likely. Two other Tory MPs told me today that around 40 no confidence letters have been submitted. A former whip told me that "half a dozen" letters were submitted over this weekend.
    Rebels who want the PM replaced are worried that a 'disordered' no confidence vote will just shore up his position as happened with the 2018 no confidence vote in Theresa May's leadership, when a snap vote was held by Brady before the rebels were ready.
    What is very clear today is that something changed in the Tory Parliamentary party late last week, in the wake of the defection of Lee Anderson - who was then an Independent - to the Reform UK party, and the row over comments about Diane Abbott by a donor…
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    The thing is, Penny is universally loved by the nation. Starmer is despised. I was listening to the callers on LBC. Could she overturn the polls?

    But is she merely a stalking horse for some mad b@stard?
    All most people know about Morduant is that she held a sword at the coronation. I cannot think of a single memorable thing she has said, either good or bad. She is a blank page, and on the evidence that is currently available her mind is equally empty.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,419
    nico679 said:

    I don’t believe there are anywhere near 40 letters . This looks like desperate hopecasting from a few disgruntled Tory MPs .

    You think there are 'a few' disgruntled Tory MPs? What is there for the rest of them to be so gruntled about?
  • It's a cultural thing. Killing someone with a car doesn't count.
    Bollocks.

    Accidents happen, if its a tragic accident then that's shit whether it be a private vehicle, a bus, cricket ball, a rugby ball, an ice hockey skate or whatever else that was behind the accident. Life isn't without risk.

    If it's deliberate it's murder.
  • Eabhal said:

    Proves the article correct, that response.
    The article is wrong as it draws a false equivalence between things that aren't the same.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,144

    I don't think the Palace would have grounds for refusal if the sitting PM asked for a dissolution. The fact that some of his MPs didn't want one is irrelevant - that must often be the case at dissolutions.
    If it was merely that some of his MPs didn't want one, I'd agree. But it wouldn't be that.

    The issue is twofold. Firstly, is the PM still entitled to use the full powers of the office if he no longer had the confidence of his party and was in the process of being replaced (or, at the least, if that question was being tested), bearing in mind that he is only PM in the first place because he is leader of the majority party?

    And secondly, is it fair to the public to put before them a choice of parties when one of the principal parties is unable to offer a prime ministerial candidate or manifesto due to temporary circumstances?

    Obviously, were Sunak to pre-empt any confidence vote then it's game on as normal. But I don't think that would be the case once Brady announced the 15% trigger had been reached. In that situation, if possible, the uncertainty should be allowed to resolve itself first.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    One for Leon: French cuisine is experiencing une renaissance.

    Michelin hails ‘cultural dynamism’ as 52 French restaurants earn their first stars

    https://www.theguardian.com/food/2024/mar/18/michelin-hails-cultural-dynamism-as-52-french-restaurants-earn-their-first-stars
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,868

    All most people know about Morduant is that she held a sword at the coronation. I cannot think of a single memorable thing she has said, either good or bad. She is a blank page, and on the evidence that is currently available her mind is equally empty.
    Impressive (war) chest, mind.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,018
    Scott_xP said:

    @christopherhope
    My analysis for
    @GBNEWS


    "I think it could happen this week," said the senior Tory MP to me. "What?" I asked. "They will move against him." Unbelievably, after two bouts of regicide, Conservative MPs are gearing for a third, as soon as this week.
    Tory MPs are in despair about their lack lustre poll ratings and repeated attempts by Rishi Sunak to grab the initiative (in the past seven months a Conference speech, a King's Speech, an Autumn statement and a Budget have all failed to work).
    So the big question is what happens next. The MP could see two options: Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 committee, leads a delegation to No10 to read the riot act. "But I am not sure that will work," the MP told me.
    The second option is more alarming for Tories: that enough no confidence letters are submitted in Sunak's leadership to past the 53 threshold to trigger a vote of no confidence in his leadership.
    This latter option is the more likely. Two other Tory MPs told me today that around 40 no confidence letters have been submitted. A former whip told me that "half a dozen" letters were submitted over this weekend.
    Rebels who want the PM replaced are worried that a 'disordered' no confidence vote will just shore up his position as happened with the 2018 no confidence vote in Theresa May's leadership, when a snap vote was held by Brady before the rebels were ready.
    What is very clear today is that something changed in the Tory Parliamentary party late last week, in the wake of the defection of Lee Anderson - who was then an Independent - to the Reform UK party, and the row over comments about Diane Abbott by a donor…

    Charles should announce a dissolution and fresh elections.

    His popularity would sky rocket.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,795
    Leon said:

    Twitter is claiming that the law does not recognise an attempted homicide if you use a vehicle. Which, if true, is bloody stupid. A car is clearly a dangerous thing if used with intent, as much as a knife, a hammer or an XL Bully

    But Twitter may be wrong: I understand this is not unknown
    There is nothing in law, IIRC, that says you can’t commit murder with a car. Or attempt to commit murder.

    Google found this

    https://www.northamptonchron.co.uk/news/crime/total-of-five-arrested-on-suspicion-of-attempted-murder-after-car-hit-two-pedestrians-in-northampton-4353926

    https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/black-country/m6-toll-attempted-murder-arrest-28545698

    https://www.dorsetecho.co.uk/news/24019103.dorchester-teenager-held-suspicion-attempted-murder/
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    It's post like that that explain why we have a productivity problem. If you were in a factory and had reduced your costs by 0.02% you'd call it a good days work. You'd then go off and look for another 0.02% tomorrow,
    How much have council budgets been cut in real terms since 2010 - something like 50%? And how much has demand for bottomless money pit services like elderly care and child protection increased over that time?

    Birmingham, the largest local authority in western Europe and one of the most diverse, spent a total of something like £140,000 of its budget on D&I, which is the kind of sum that can be more than burnt up in a year shelling out for accommodation and care for a single very disturbed child. It's chicken feed, and many authorities have long since stopped employing anyone in these sorts of posts, if they ever did in the first place.

    Efficiency savings are like benefit scroungers - sure you can still find some if you look hard enough, but it doesn't compensate for the sheer scale of genuine burdens that are heaped upon the system. Councils can't efficiency save their way out of circumstances where they're spending three quarters or more of their entire budgets on social care and homeless families, and where the demand keeps growing relentlessly at a pace that outstrips what they receive from Whitehall, or are allowed to raise from their taxpayers. So, first of all the discretionary spending all goes - the libraries, the parks, the arts and community group grants, the road repairs - basically everything that anyone who doesn't need social care provision values from the council - and then, eventually, the council can't keep up with the social care demand and it goes bankrupt anyway.

    The less fortunate and the less well managed councils are simply the vanguard of this. All of them, save perhaps for some lower tier authorities in better off areas, are going to fall over in the next few years if the funding system isn't reformed and they're not fed more cash. This is obviously inconvenient to those of us who resent paying tax and just want it to stop, but that doesn't change the reality of the situation.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,669

    All most people know about Morduant is that she held a sword at the coronation. I cannot think of a single memorable thing she has said, either good or bad. She is a blank page, and on the evidence that is currently available her mind is equally empty.
    There was stand up and fight too:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BAPt5DmfGzs
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155

    If it was merely that some of his MPs didn't want one, I'd agree. But it wouldn't be that.

    The issue is twofold. Firstly, is the PM still entitled to use the full powers of the office if he no longer had the confidence of his party and was in the process of being replaced (or, at the least, if that question was being tested), bearing in mind that he is only PM in the first place because he is leader of the majority party?

    And secondly, is it fair to the public to put before them a choice of parties when one of the principal parties is unable to offer a prime ministerial candidate or manifesto due to temporary circumstances?

    Obviously, were Sunak to pre-empt any confidence vote then it's game on as normal. But I don't think that would be the case once Brady announced the 15% trigger had been reached. In that situation, if possible, the uncertainty should be allowed to resolve itself first.
    The circumstances in which a Prime Minister might seek a dissolution are underpinned by two core constitutional principles:

    (1)The Prime Minister holds that position by virtue of their ability to command the confidence of the House of Commons and will normally be the accepted leader of the political party that commands the majority of the House of Commons.

    (2)The monarch should not be drawn into party politics, and it is the responsibility of those involved in the political process to ensure that remains the case. As the Crown’s principal adviser this responsibility falls particularly on the incumbent Prime Minister.

    A return to the pre-2011 status quo ante will also restore the position whereby the Prime Minister, having lost a designated or explicit vote of confidence, can either resign or seek a dissolution, which would usually be granted and lead to an election.

    The monarch, by convention, is informed by and acts upon the advice of the Prime Minister so long as the government appears to have the confidence of the House, and the Prime Minister maintains support as the leader of that government.


    [My bold]

    https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld5802/ldselect/ldconst/100/10005.htm
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,126

    Bollocks.

    Accidents happen, if its a tragic accident then that's shit whether it be a private vehicle, a bus, cricket ball, a rugby ball, an ice hockey skate or whatever else that was behind the accident. Life isn't without risk.

    If it's deliberate it's murder.
    But we've seen this over and over again with motorists killing people and treated incredibly leniently. And it's not unusual for motorists to be aggressive towards other road users. I've had someone try to knock me over.

    It shouldn't be this way, but it is, because there's a big cultural lacuna when it comes to the car.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    TimS said:

    There was stand up and fight too:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BAPt5DmfGzs
    Remind me again, what did she want us to do?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    He’s going to have to call an election, this simply cannot carry on.

    There's a world of difference between shouldn't and can't. The Tory Party will drag this out until next January if it believes that's in the best interests of the Tory Party.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,144
    Leon said:

    Twitter is claiming that the law does not recognise an attempted homicide if you use a vehicle. Which, if true, is bloody stupid. A car is clearly a dangerous thing if used with intent, as much as a knife, a hammer or an XL Bully

    But Twitter may be wrong: I understand this is not unknown
    Twitter is indeed wrong. See this example, from a quick Google -

    https://www.cheshire.police.uk/news/cheshire/news/articles/2024/1/woman-found-guilty-of-murder-after-driving-her-car-at-fiance-in-rode-heath/

    I suspect Twitter was getting confused by most people who are charged after killing someone while driving being done so for causing death by dangerous / careless driving. But if the car is used as a weapon then murder charges can result.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,814
    pigeon said:

    Where is the space for small government, given the colossal numbers of old people (who all expect inflation busting pensions and many of whom also have complex health and care needs,) sick and disabled people (a bloc growing constantly as the healthcare system falls apart,) and working poor (those on low and middle incomes who are still broke and reliant on benefits, because of dreadful pay, astronomical housing costs, or both?)

    There is no such space. You can have items 2, 3 and quite a lot of 4, although we're unlikely to conquer the crippling national obesity problem without some nannying. But 1 is dead as a doornail. The big state is here to stay, what's at issue is whether anyone can be found who is willing to admit it, rather than pretending that we could have low taxes if only we were prepared to be cruel enough to the poor.
    Yes. The small government idea collapses as soon as the proponent is asked to clarify how even a slightly smaller state will be fixed. £100 billion is less than 5% of GDP, so it would be a small but promising start towards a conservative state but I don't know of anyone who could both find that sort of saving in state managed expenditure - even over a 5-10 year programme - and at the same time win an election.
  • But we've seen this over and over again with motorists killing people and treated incredibly leniently. And it's not unusual for motorists to be aggressive towards other road users. I've had someone try to knock me over.

    It shouldn't be this way, but it is, because there's a big cultural lacuna when it comes to the car.
    People are treated incredibly leniently for all kinds of killings.

    And are you comparing like for like? Do you mean killings with intent, in which case it's murder, or accidents in which case compare like for like.

    How much time behind bars did Sean Abbott get for killing Phillip Hughes?
  • Bollocks.

    Accidents happen, if its a tragic accident then that's shit whether it be a private vehicle, a bus, cricket ball, a rugby ball, an ice hockey skate or whatever else that was behind the accident. Life isn't without risk.

    If it's deliberate it's murder.
    Just did some googling. The penalty for causing death by dangerous driving is 14 years to life.
    For murder, penalty is life but with a minimum term of at least 15 years.
    So not much difference in practice.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,400
    pigeon said:

    The Tory Party will drag this out until next January if it believes that's in the best interests of the Tory Party.

    It isn't. They won't.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,155

    It's post like that that explain why we have a productivity problem. If you were in a factory and had reduced your costs by 0.02% you'd call it a good days work. You'd then go off and look for another 0.02% tomorrow,
    That's dependent on having a vision and values to map out where you are going and how you go around getting there.

    Sunk is nihilistic.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,400
    @fleetstreetfox

    The reason the Tories are thrashing around looking for a leader is because, with Rishi Sunak in charge, they don't have one.

    He doesn't even have a meme.

    https://twitter.com/fleetstreetfox/status/1769846242878881872/photo/1
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    MattW said:

    That's dependent on having a vision and values to map out where you are going and how you go around getting there.

    Sunk is nihilistic.
    Sunak hah!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,382
    Scott_xP said:

    @fleetstreetfox

    The reason the Tories are thrashing around looking for a leader is because, with Rishi Sunak in charge, they don't have one.

    He doesn't even have a meme.

    https://twitter.com/fleetstreetfox/status/1769846242878881872/photo/1

    "Don't forget to scan your ClubCard!"
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,400
    @EmilyThornberry

    Rishi Sunak ordered the RAF to send a helicopter 210 miles from Northolt to his home in Yorkshire yesterday, so he could fly 145 miles to Coventry this morning, just to make a seven-minute speech. This is why he's in a spiral; it's the constant refusal to listen, learn or change.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,382
    Kate or Celine Dion?

    :lol:
  • isamisam Posts: 41,119
    edited March 2024
    Carnyx said:

    So BBC Scotland's every report with a pic of Glasgow or Edinburgh in the background was filmed in British Museum Tube Station, is your inference?
    You’re probably cleverer than me, because I can’t work out why you’re being snarky, or what I’m supposed to be inferring.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,905
    rcs1000 said:

    The danger for Trump is that he ends up defaulting on a loan payment, in which case... phewy... it could all come tumbling very quickly indeed. Because - in all probability - there will be cross default clauses - default on anything, and all the loans get called at once.

    Now, my gut is that there is probably plenty of equity across the Trump group. But he probably needs to sell something big (and unencumbered) fast.
    If Trump Tower is seized that is going to breach almost every banking covenant he has which makes him very vulnerable.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    Scott_xP said:

    It isn't. They won't.
    There was a sound argument, as articulated by many on here and elsewhere, for going to the country in May before the situation deteriorates further. Unless Sunak does a 180 degree U-turn this week, that ain't happening, and that likely means this all drags on at least until the Autumn.

    Assuming that the situation does get even worse by September then do they get the agony over with, or stall until the last possible moment in the hope of a black swan (and to give the numerous chopees more time to look for alternative employment?) There's some evidence to suggest they're going for November, but I don't think January can be ruled out.
  • "Don't forget to scan your ClubCard!"
    “Thank you for shopping at Tesco”
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    Look at that picture. Is that Kate Middleton. Really ?

    https://x.com/MailOnline/status/1769820408818110941?s=20

  • TazTaz Posts: 17,141
    pigeon said:

    How much have council budgets been cut in real terms since 2010 - something like 50%? And how much has demand for bottomless money pit services like elderly care and child protection increased over that time?

    Birmingham, the largest local authority in western Europe and one of the most diverse, spent a total of something like £140,000 of its budget on D&I, which is the kind of sum that can be more than burnt up in a year shelling out for accommodation and care for a single very disturbed child. It's chicken feed, and many authorities have long since stopped employing anyone in these sorts of posts, if they ever did in the first place.

    Efficiency savings are like benefit scroungers - sure you can still find some if you look hard enough, but it doesn't compensate for the sheer scale of genuine burdens that are heaped upon the system. Councils can't efficiency save their way out of circumstances where they're spending three quarters or more of their entire budgets on social care and homeless families, and where the demand keeps growing relentlessly at a pace that outstrips what they receive from Whitehall, or are allowed to raise from their taxpayers. So, first of all the discretionary spending all goes - the libraries, the parks, the arts and community group grants, the road repairs - basically everything that anyone who doesn't need social care provision values from the council - and then, eventually, the council can't keep up with the social care demand and it goes bankrupt anyway.

    The less fortunate and the less well managed councils are simply the vanguard of this. All of them, save perhaps for some lower tier authorities in better off areas, are going to fall over in the next few years if the funding system isn't reformed and they're not fed more cash. This is obviously inconvenient to those of us who resent paying tax and just want it to stop, but that doesn't change the reality of the situation.
    I’m sure funding is an issue and labour will do something about it but why should the taxpayer as a whole bail out councils like Brum, Nottingham and Woking whose financial problems are largely of their own making ?,
  • isamisam Posts: 41,119
    Leon said:

    If you repeatedly ram someone with a car you are highly likely to kill them. Just as if you repeatedly smash someone in the head with a claw hammer

    What’s the difference?

    I you try to kill someone with a hammer and come mightily close and, as you do that, in your frenzy you also smash someone else in the head giving them critical injuries you should not get a jail sentence where you are out within 2 years

    Truly bizarre

    As strange to me as the sentence for attempted murder being shorter than one for actual murder; the accused did the same thing, with the same intent, why should our one play a part?

    Someone throws an a axe at someone’s head with the intent off killing them but misses, another person does the same to someone else and hits, but the victim survives, a third person throws an axe at another person, hits and kills them… all three throwers are as evil as each other, but luck decides who goes to prison for longest

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,400
    ...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,757
    Truman said:

    Look at that picture. Is that Kate Middleton. Really ?

    https://x.com/MailOnline/status/1769820408818110941?s=20

    👀 @Leon ?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,400
    When things couldn’t be worse, they can — as that man in the big white shirt once sang — only get better. Which means, in a way, that you can do whatever you like. Take Penny Mordaunt, and this idea that the Conservatives should bung her into Downing Street as a last-minute, pre-election PM. A good idea? Obviously not. Utterly bonkers. And yet, would it actually make the actual election go any worse? Hmm. Perhaps not.

    Park the Conservatives generally, though, and think only of Rishi Sunak. He too is at rock bottom. He too could not be doing worse. And so, given that he can now do almost whatever he wants, one thought is obsessing me. Which is why on earth he doesn’t.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/time-for-sunak-to-unleash-his-inner-tech-bro-x589gqtgm
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,141
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    Also look at this. Ears are different.

    https://x.com/vaximakram/status/1769840721526194644?s=20
  • TresTres Posts: 2,775
    moonshine said:

    That’s quite a blinkered view. What of the online censorship embraced by the Democrat Party for example? There’s extremism infecting both parties in the US right now. And not all Republican candidates for congress will be authoritarian or crazy. It’s a little unhinged if I might say so to presume that anyone voting for a Republican candidate this year is automatically an extremist.
    the online censorship that Elon Musk got all excited about turned out to be a dick pic from Hunter Biden. How is that extremism?
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,221
    Off-off topic: Years ago, I observed that almost anyone can learn to flip a coin to give biased results. And I have often wondered whether cheaters had taken advantage of that.

    (A somewhat better randomizing process -- in my opinion -- is to stand a coin on edge and spin it.)
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,814

    Yes, watching that video it's hard to understand how that doesn't qualify as attempted murder:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/mar/18/man-jailed-ramming-motorcyclist-milton-keynes-bridge-extreme-road-rage
    Sentence feels too short; GBH with intent is a very serious offence; but attempted murder is, of all crimes, the toughest to prove as (unlike murder) requires proof of an intent to kill - which would be unlikely to succeed here.
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    Taz said:
    She looks different and too young for a start.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,868
    Scott_xP said:

    @EmilyThornberry

    Rishi Sunak ordered the RAF to send a helicopter 210 miles from Northolt to his home in Yorkshire yesterday, so he could fly 145 miles to Coventry this morning, just to make a seven-minute speech. This is why he's in a spiral; it's the constant refusal to listen, learn or change.

    This speaks to a wider point.
    It isn't just Sunak. It's the wider Conservative Party who are guilty of that.
    The public keep telling them services are in the toilet.
    Yet they keep trumpeting tax cuts. The last one failed. As did the one before that.
    So. The plan is for another before an election.
    It's an ideology, imbued with a hazy folk memory of Thatcher. The political equivalent of "Computer says No!"
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    TimS said:

    There was stand up and fight too:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BAPt5DmfGzs
    My God, that's dreadful! Also inappropriate to use images of the King in a political context. Suggests that her communication skills are pretty much non-existent and her judgement is questionable to say the least.
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    I dont know what the palace are playing at. Just release a close up video of kate talking to the camera and put the rumours to bed.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,428
    Scott_xP said:

    @EmilyThornberry

    Rishi Sunak ordered the RAF to send a helicopter 210 miles from Northolt to his home in Yorkshire yesterday, so he could fly 145 miles to Coventry this morning, just to make a seven-minute speech. This is why he's in a spiral; it's the constant refusal to listen, learn or change.

    I assume after Sunak no other PM will ever dare take a helicopter. No?

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    Truman said:

    I dont know what the palace are playing at. Just release a close up video of kate talking to the camera and put the rumours to bed.

    That is indeed a very good point.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,018
    Truman said:

    She looks different and too young for a start.
    That photo is worse than the infamous Simon and Garfunkel on a beach photo for uk greatest hits LP.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    dixiedean said:

    This speaks to a wider point.
    It isn't just Sunak. It's the wider Conservative Party who are guilty of that.
    The public keep telling them services are in the toilet.
    Yet they keep trumpeting tax cuts. The last one failed. As did the one before that.
    So. The plan is for another before an election.
    It's an ideology, imbued with a hazy folk memory of Thatcher. The political equivalent of "Computer says No!"
    Soon to be rebuffed with: "Country says No!"
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    Whilst pb may think that woman is kate social media aint buying it.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,814
    isam said:

    As strange to me as the sentence for attempted murder being shorter than one for actual murder; the accused did the same thing, with the same intent, why should our one play a part?

    Someone throws an a axe at someone’s head with the intent off killing them but misses, another person does the same to someone else and hits, but the victim survives, a third person throws an axe at another person, hits and kills them… all three throwers are as evil as each other, but luck decides who goes to prison for longest

    Because in fact sentencing is partly based on consequences. It is not rational, and, IMHO, it is increasing. While not rational, it is extremely understandable.

    The high point of this is the fairly new offence of 'causing death by careless driving'. Careless driving is the stuff that all drivers have done, it (virtually) never involves malign intent about doing damage to people, and can involve misreading or failing to spot a sign in a strange place. You can get a long prison sentence for it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,018
    Truman said:

    Also look at this. Ears are different.

    https://x.com/vaximakram/status/1769840721526194644?s=20

    The paper has been totally had by a member of the public it looks.
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    Remember the picture in the car with a bloated Kate in sunglasses. This woman doesnt look anything like her.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008
    edited March 2024
    Truman said:
    DELETE
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,158
    Taz said:

    I’m sure funding is an issue and labour will do something about it but why should the taxpayer as a whole bail out councils like Brum, Nottingham and Woking whose financial problems are largely of their own making ?,
    In principle, yes, but in practice the scale and timeframe blur that messily.

    How far should people moving to Brum/Nottingham/Thurrock/Woking be on the hook for decisions taken before they moved there? Should voters who elected bad councils be able to escape the consequences of their actions by moving elsewhere? What about councils like mine? Nobody thinks they have been dumb, it's just they have been mashed by the combination of increasing demands and insufficient tax base.

    And the mechanisms that work in private enterprise (you go bust and if there's still something about your business, someone takes you over, and if there isn't you won't be missed) don't really apply to local government.

    I don't have an answer, but this isn't it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,018
    Unfortunate picture editing on the front of the Express tonight.
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    Heres Piers Morgan

    UPDATE: Nobody on here believes it’s them (it is…) so the conspiracy theories have increased.

    https://x.com/piersmorgan/status/1769835759584805203?s=20
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,278
    Taz said:
    GIN1138 said:

    👀 @Leon ?
    OK that’s not her, I don’t think

    Which means she’s dead and ****** did it
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,018

    That is indeed a very good point.
    Maybe this is some elaborate april fool?
  • That is indeed a very good point.
    Not really. It doesn't matter what the rumour mill is doing.

    People believe all kinds of batshit crazy stuff online. Kate is already dead and they're doing a Royal Weekend at Bernie's, the moon landings were faked, Covid vaccines cause BA pilot deaths, Trump won the last election, Putin has a justification for his special military operation, Rishi Sunak should be Prime Minister.

    Posit any strange thing online and someone will agree with it, no matter how farcical.

    They should just ignore any rumours.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008
    Interesting quick scan, 679ner, pointer and Sandy (the latter who I think actually is in Labour Party despite being one of the most culturally right wing PBers) desperately pouring cold water on Sunak’s removal and replaced by the blank sheet “Mrs Moore” Mourdant.

    Correct me if this sudden about shift I think has happened isn’t true - It’s Labour now terrified of this Black Swan swap out, and desperate to keep Sunak as Tory leader on General Election day, whereas Sunak’s usual defenders, having digested latest polls, have gone quiet? 🤐
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,905

    Not really. It doesn't matter what the rumour mill is doing.

    People believe all kinds of batshit crazy stuff online. Kate is already dead and they're doing a Royal Weekend at Bernie's, the moon landings were faked, Covid vaccines cause BA pilot deaths, Trump won the last election, Putin has a justification for his special military operation, Rishi Sunak should be Prime Minister.

    Posit any strange thing online and someone will agree with it, no matter how farcical.

    They should just ignore any rumours.
    The last example is a bit of a stretch.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155

    Not really. It doesn't matter what the rumour mill is doing.

    People believe all kinds of batshit crazy stuff online. Kate is already dead and they're doing a Royal Weekend at Bernie's, the moon landings were faked, Covid vaccines cause BA pilot deaths, Trump won the last election, Putin has a justification for his special military operation, Rishi Sunak should be Prime Minister.

    Posit any strange thing online and someone will agree with it, no matter how farcical.

    They should just ignore any rumours.
    Yes I get all that. But how hard would it be for her just to do a short interview / photo-op, or make a statement to the effect that she's still recuperating?

    Tbh, I don't care that much - the monarchy seem to be working hard to bring about their end, which is fine by me.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,923

    It would be more interesting if she'd ditched baldy for Meghan.
    I think it's around series 5,6 or 7 in which a heretofore straight woman is discovered to be gay or bi due to a romance with a new character. It's up there with bringing a character in from another series after a crossover episode. I'm just waiting for the Mirror Universe episode.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,868

    Interesting quick scan, 679ner, pointer and Sandy (the latter who I think actually is in Labour Party despite being one of the most culturally right wing PBers) desperately pouring cold water on Sunak’s removal and replaced by the blank sheet “Mrs Moore” Mourdant.

    Correct me if this sudden about shift I think has happened isn’t true - It’s Labour now terrified of this Black Swan swap out, and desperate to keep Sunak as Tory leader on General Election day, whereas Sunak’s usual defenders, having digested latest polls, have gone quiet? 🤐

    The consistent 20 point leads having ticked up a notch.
    Terrified isn't the correct adjective.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    Taz said:

    I’m sure funding is an issue and labour will do something about it but why should the taxpayer as a whole bail out councils like Brum, Nottingham and Woking whose financial problems are largely of their own making ?,
    Woking is a very extreme case where the Government arguably bears responsibility on two fronts: firstly, lack of sufficient oversight; and secondly, that fact that the tiny authority will never in a million years be able to repay debts on that scale. That being the case, must the good people of Woking manage without having their bins collected, their homeless children housed and their frail elderly cared for for the rest of time, whilst such things continue as normal half a mile away over the border? Common sense must assert itself in such situations. The bailout was inevitable.

    More broadly, much of the fault - even in poorly managed authorities - lies with Parliament anyway, for failing to provide adequate funding for core services itself, and forbidding councils from raising adequate revenue through council tax themselves either (save through these daft, impossible to win local plebiscites, which funnily enough the Treasury doesn't call each time it wants to put taxes up, I wonder why?)

    That's not to say that local taxpayers should be absolved of all consequences for the behaviour of their elected representatives, because that creates moral hazard, which is what you're objecting to. The best way to achieve the required balance over this is to reform local government finance, through a combination of Whitehall providing adequate subsidy to address the scale of demand for stretched services like child protection, and more devolution of the tax base. Thus the council won't, through no fault of its own, have to close or flog off all its leisure facilities to fund elderly care, but if it has access to adequate funding yet still gets into debt through poor and inefficient management, councillors will then be made to choose whether to cull libraries and youth centres to cover the costs, or hike taxes to do it.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,757
    Well Princess Catherine is due back after Easter and Easter is less than two weeks away so either she'll come appear after Easter or she won't but one way or another this will be coming to a head soon...
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008
    edited March 2024

    Interesting quick scan, 679ner, pointer and Sandy (the latter who I think actually is in Labour Party despite being one of the most culturally right wing PBers) desperately pouring cold water on Sunak’s removal and replaced by the blank sheet “Mrs Moore” Mourdant.

    Correct me if this sudden about shift I think has happened isn’t true - It’s Labour now terrified of this Black Swan swap out, and desperate to keep Sunak as Tory leader on General Election day, whereas Sunak’s usual defenders, having digested latest polls, have gone quiet? 🤐

    Add to that, yesterday’s newspaper front pages were all about Sunak’s big fight back today? Did you notice a big fight back today.

    If anything, seeing him so tired and looking unwell, makes you wonder how much fight is left.

    And tonight’s front pages have a different tone “PM Mourdant for election? Not so daft as you might think” says both Isabel Hard an and Sean O Grady.

    Ruthless Tories shooting Labours fox again, if this swap out denies them a majority. 😈

    But then again, Labour not getting a majority will be down to their own lack of Tory ruthlessness in sticking with Corbyn and allowing him to take them down to 200 seats, just too much to get back in one go. 😇
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,141
    Truman said:

    Heres Piers Morgan

    UPDATE: Nobody on here believes it’s them (it is…) so the conspiracy theories have increased.

    https://x.com/piersmorgan/status/1769835759584805203?s=20

    https://youtu.be/ZWZJS_XNMS0?si=A-1rb1t5d0xCm_o9&t=67
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279

    Not really. It doesn't matter what the rumour mill is doing.

    People believe all kinds of batshit crazy stuff online. Kate is already dead and they're doing a Royal Weekend at Bernie's, the moon landings were faked, Covid vaccines cause BA pilot deaths, Trump won the last election, Putin has a justification for his special military operation, Rishi Sunak should be Prime Minister.

    Posit any strange thing online and someone will agree with it, no matter how farcical.

    They should just ignore any rumours.
    Lumped a lot of stuff together there mate.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,757

    Not really. It doesn't matter what the rumour mill is doing.

    People believe all kinds of batshit crazy stuff online. Kate is already dead and they're doing a Royal Weekend at Bernie's, the moon landings were faked, Covid vaccines cause BA pilot deaths, Trump won the last election, Putin has a justification for his special military operation, Rishi Sunak should be Prime Minister.

    Posit any strange thing online and someone will agree with it, no matter how farcical.

    They should just ignore any rumours.
    Reminder that Nostradarums supposedly predicted H&M would become King and Queen 😜
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Khan is the blandest mayor possible. In the Hollywood film set in the U.K. he is perfect as “The London Major” who gets one line at the big meeting and is never mentioned again.

    His thing is being non-toxic and Labour. He hasn’t set the place on fire - in either sense. Which will see him home easily. That and a small amount of name recognition.

    The other candidates are utterly unknown.
    Also has a strong cv of delivery, whether or not PB Tories think these should all be credited to him, they came on his watch:

    • Night Tube
    • Crossrail
    • Ulez
    • Ulex
    • Tube 4G
  • Taz said:

    I’m sure funding is an issue and labour will do something about it but why should the taxpayer as a whole bail out councils like Brum, Nottingham and Woking whose financial problems are largely of their own making ?,
    Just wait until when the North is asked to bail out the water users of the affluent South East when Thames Water goes under. (sorry for the water-related puns)
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008
    DavidL said:
    The daily mail has spectacularly screwed up here 🫣
This discussion has been closed.