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Ayrshire hotelier’s troubles mount – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited March 18 in General
Ayrshire hotelier’s troubles mount – politicalbetting.com

Confused Trump: “Joe Biden won against Barack Hussein Obama."Donald Trump’s rapid cognitive decline should be a major news story.pic.twitter.com/MLAtNtJgmr

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,215
    edited March 18
    I think this might be my first first in ages, like three days and seven threads?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,752
    It's Zimmer frames at dawn over there
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,880
    edited March 18

    I think this might be my first first in ages, like three days and seven threads?

    You should have 4 points deducted for irregularities.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,078
    Second, like Biden.

    If only Obama could run again. Putin changed his constitution. Its possible...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,662

    It's Zimmer frames at dawn over there

    lol


  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,167

    I am delighted to announce the upcoming thread will be about shoes.

    Will it feature being arrested for wearing loud shoes in a built up area by Chief Superintendent Savage OBE, of the Met?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,662
    edited March 18
    I quite like Biden’s shoes. They look like my Salomon speedCross 5 (superb shoes btw)

    https://www.salomon.com/en-gb/shop-emea/product/speedcross-5.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,934
    edited March 18

    It's Zimmer frames at dawn over there

    The debates should be interesting, both candidates potentially suffering from dementia? Trump and Biden both have net negative approval ratings and Trump facing criminal cases too.

    I think we could be looking at the highest 3rd party vote since Ross Perot. RFK Jr already at 9% in Pennsylvania with Fox last week with Biden and Trump tied on 42% each

    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/pennsylvania/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    Neither Trump nor Biden are in A1 mental health, and are in considerably worse physical health. The question is how likely is it that the one or the other says something so out-of-touch with reality that it bombs their support in a seriously damaging way. The American public have proven remarkably tolerant on that score so far, not least because how much each side fears the other.

    Obviously, Trump has always had a much bigger pass on that sort of thing, partly because his supporters are more credulous to begin with but also because outrageous exaggeration (aka lying) is part of his thing; it's priced in.

    For once, the debates might actually matter.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,662

    Neither Trump nor Biden are in A1 mental health, and are in considerably worse physical health. The question is how likely is it that the one or the other says something so out-of-touch with reality that it bombs their support in a seriously damaging way. The American public have proven remarkably tolerant on that score so far, not least because how much each side fears the other.

    Obviously, Trump has always had a much bigger pass on that sort of thing, partly because his supporters are more credulous to begin with but also because outrageous exaggeration (aka lying) is part of his thing; it's priced in.

    For once, the debates might actually matter.

    Is it possible they might both duck the debates as too risky?

    If they are both gaga (and I suspect they are, or heading there) then neither of them will want live debates

    Has this ever happened before? No debates at all?
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 415

    eek said:

    Former US president Obama visits no 10 Downing Street for a private meeting with Rishi Sunak

    Now that leads to an interesting question - what question / information does the US President need to pass on to the UK Prime Minister in person?

    Ex-leaders of countries often visit government of other countries as a form of (semi-back channel) diplomacy.
    What about future First Gentlemen who wish to establish good relations with their spouses' campaigns?

    (This is a joke. I don't think she'll run. Which is a shame, because she'd make an excellent president. Wouldn't be surprised if the octagenarian pulls out though.)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,829
    Reason 1548795412562 Richi repels voters...

    @SkyNews

    Rishi Sunak said he is "not interested in Westminster politics" and insisted his party is "united" as he brushed off rumours of a plot to oust him
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,167
    Donkeys said:

    eek said:

    Former US president Obama visits no 10 Downing Street for a private meeting with Rishi Sunak

    Now that leads to an interesting question - what question / information does the US President need to pass on to the UK Prime Minister in person?

    Ex-leaders of countries often visit government of other countries as a form of (semi-back channel) diplomacy.
    What about future First Gentlemen who wish to establish good relations with their spouses' campaigns?

    (This is a joke. I don't think she'll run. Which is a shame, because she'd make an excellent president. Wouldn't be surprised if the octagenarian pulls out though.)
    If you are referring to Michele Obama - she has no experience of and shown no sign of interest in US elective politics.
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    Leon said:

    Neither Trump nor Biden are in A1 mental health, and are in considerably worse physical health. The question is how likely is it that the one or the other says something so out-of-touch with reality that it bombs their support in a seriously damaging way. The American public have proven remarkably tolerant on that score so far, not least because how much each side fears the other.

    Obviously, Trump has always had a much bigger pass on that sort of thing, partly because his supporters are more credulous to begin with but also because outrageous exaggeration (aka lying) is part of his thing; it's priced in.

    For once, the debates might actually matter.

    Is it possible they might both duck the debates as too risky?

    If they are both gaga (and I suspect they are, or heading there) then neither of them will want live debates

    Has this ever happened before? No debates at all?
    Yes these two old fossils duking it out is a real symbol of the west in decline. Very sad.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,962
    Scott_xP said:

    Reason 1548795412562 Richi repels voters...

    @SkyNews

    Rishi Sunak said he is "not interested in Westminster politics"

    That certainly explains a lot.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,662
    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    Neither Trump nor Biden are in A1 mental health, and are in considerably worse physical health. The question is how likely is it that the one or the other says something so out-of-touch with reality that it bombs their support in a seriously damaging way. The American public have proven remarkably tolerant on that score so far, not least because how much each side fears the other.

    Obviously, Trump has always had a much bigger pass on that sort of thing, partly because his supporters are more credulous to begin with but also because outrageous exaggeration (aka lying) is part of his thing; it's priced in.

    For once, the debates might actually matter.

    Is it possible they might both duck the debates as too risky?

    If they are both gaga (and I suspect they are, or heading there) then neither of them will want live debates

    Has this ever happened before? No debates at all?
    Yes these two old fossils duking it out is a real symbol of the west in decline. Very sad.
    But is it even possible? Politically?

    I don’t think the tv debates are legally obligatory but it would surely be unprecedented (in the tv era) for them not to happen
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 415

    Donkeys said:

    eek said:

    Former US president Obama visits no 10 Downing Street for a private meeting with Rishi Sunak

    Now that leads to an interesting question - what question / information does the US President need to pass on to the UK Prime Minister in person?

    Ex-leaders of countries often visit government of other countries as a form of (semi-back channel) diplomacy.
    What about future First Gentlemen who wish to establish good relations with their spouses' campaigns?

    (This is a joke. I don't think she'll run. Which is a shame, because she'd make an excellent president. Wouldn't be surprised if the octagenarian pulls out though.)
    If you are referring to Michele Obama - she has no experience of and shown no sign of interest in US elective politics.
    She won't run. But lack of experience in electoral politics wouldn't stop her from being an excellent president. I enjoyed her book. She's almost the certainly the brains of the household.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,752
    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    Neither Trump nor Biden are in A1 mental health, and are in considerably worse physical health. The question is how likely is it that the one or the other says something so out-of-touch with reality that it bombs their support in a seriously damaging way. The American public have proven remarkably tolerant on that score so far, not least because how much each side fears the other.

    Obviously, Trump has always had a much bigger pass on that sort of thing, partly because his supporters are more credulous to begin with but also because outrageous exaggeration (aka lying) is part of his thing; it's priced in.

    For once, the debates might actually matter.

    Is it possible they might both duck the debates as too risky?

    If they are both gaga (and I suspect they are, or heading there) then neither of them will want live debates

    Has this ever happened before? No debates at all?
    Yes these two old fossils duking it out is a real symbol of the west in decline. Very sad.
    Putins in the same age group

    He thinks he can go on until he's in an Andropovian state of vegetation

    Rusky (night) Mare
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,215
    Leon said:

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    Neither Trump nor Biden are in A1 mental health, and are in considerably worse physical health. The question is how likely is it that the one or the other says something so out-of-touch with reality that it bombs their support in a seriously damaging way. The American public have proven remarkably tolerant on that score so far, not least because how much each side fears the other.

    Obviously, Trump has always had a much bigger pass on that sort of thing, partly because his supporters are more credulous to begin with but also because outrageous exaggeration (aka lying) is part of his thing; it's priced in.

    For once, the debates might actually matter.

    Is it possible they might both duck the debates as too risky?

    If they are both gaga (and I suspect they are, or heading there) then neither of them will want live debates

    Has this ever happened before? No debates at all?
    Yes these two old fossils duking it out is a real symbol of the west in decline. Very sad.
    But is it even possible? Politically?

    I don’t think the tv debates are legally obligatory but it would surely be unprecedented (in the tv era) for them not to happen
    The coward Trump has already skipped the GOP debates because he is too frit.
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    Neither Trump nor Biden are in A1 mental health, and are in considerably worse physical health. The question is how likely is it that the one or the other says something so out-of-touch with reality that it bombs their support in a seriously damaging way. The American public have proven remarkably tolerant on that score so far, not least because how much each side fears the other.

    Obviously, Trump has always had a much bigger pass on that sort of thing, partly because his supporters are more credulous to begin with but also because outrageous exaggeration (aka lying) is part of his thing; it's priced in.

    For once, the debates might actually matter.

    Is it possible they might both duck the debates as too risky?

    If they are both gaga (and I suspect they are, or heading there) then neither of them will want live debates

    Has this ever happened before? No debates at all?
    Yes these two old fossils duking it out is a real symbol of the west in decline. Very sad.
    Putins in the same age group

    He thinks he can go on until he's in an Andropovian state of vegetation

    Rusky (night) Mare
    No Putin is 71 i think so a spring chicken. Way too young to be US President.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,693
    Scott_xP said:

    Reason 1548795412562 Richi repels voters...

    @SkyNews

    Rishi Sunak said he is "not interested in Westminster politics" and insisted his party is "united" as he brushed off rumours of a plot to oust him

    I heard the first bit of the quote on The World at One.
    My first thought was, surely you SHOULD be interested in Westminister politics, because.... you know... it's British politics......
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,829
    There is no leadership challenge. Meanwhile, here is a completely unrelated briefing...

    @benrileysmith

    Sunak allies are noting Penny Mordaunt is at risk of losing her seat at the next election and warning a 'Jo Swinson' moment could follow if she became leader.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,752
    Truman said:

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    Neither Trump nor Biden are in A1 mental health, and are in considerably worse physical health. The question is how likely is it that the one or the other says something so out-of-touch with reality that it bombs their support in a seriously damaging way. The American public have proven remarkably tolerant on that score so far, not least because how much each side fears the other.

    Obviously, Trump has always had a much bigger pass on that sort of thing, partly because his supporters are more credulous to begin with but also because outrageous exaggeration (aka lying) is part of his thing; it's priced in.

    For once, the debates might actually matter.

    Is it possible they might both duck the debates as too risky?

    If they are both gaga (and I suspect they are, or heading there) then neither of them will want live debates

    Has this ever happened before? No debates at all?
    Yes these two old fossils duking it out is a real symbol of the west in decline. Very sad.
    Putins in the same age group

    He thinks he can go on until he's in an Andropovian state of vegetation

    Rusky (night) Mare
    No Putin is 71 i think so a spring chicken. Way too young to be US President.
    well I can accept he's a bit of a chicken
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    Scott_xP said:

    There is no leadership challenge. Meanwhile, here is a completely unrelated briefing...

    @benrileysmith

    Sunak allies are noting Penny Mordaunt is at risk of losing her seat at the next election and warning a 'Jo Swinson' moment could follow if she became leader.

    the tories look absolutely ridiculous now. Just go to the country.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,662

    Leon said:

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    Neither Trump nor Biden are in A1 mental health, and are in considerably worse physical health. The question is how likely is it that the one or the other says something so out-of-touch with reality that it bombs their support in a seriously damaging way. The American public have proven remarkably tolerant on that score so far, not least because how much each side fears the other.

    Obviously, Trump has always had a much bigger pass on that sort of thing, partly because his supporters are more credulous to begin with but also because outrageous exaggeration (aka lying) is part of his thing; it's priced in.

    For once, the debates might actually matter.

    Is it possible they might both duck the debates as too risky?

    If they are both gaga (and I suspect they are, or heading there) then neither of them will want live debates

    Has this ever happened before? No debates at all?
    Yes these two old fossils duking it out is a real symbol of the west in decline. Very sad.
    But is it even possible? Politically?

    I don’t think the tv debates are legally obligatory but it would surely be unprecedented (in the tv era) for them not to happen
    The coward Trump has already skipped the GOP debates because he is too frit.
    I’m not sure it was coz he’s frit as much as he didn’t need to debate - you don’t debate if you are cruising to victory

    However he might well be frit of national debates against Biden. And Biden likewise

    So maybe they won’t happen
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,215

    Truman said:

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    Neither Trump nor Biden are in A1 mental health, and are in considerably worse physical health. The question is how likely is it that the one or the other says something so out-of-touch with reality that it bombs their support in a seriously damaging way. The American public have proven remarkably tolerant on that score so far, not least because how much each side fears the other.

    Obviously, Trump has always had a much bigger pass on that sort of thing, partly because his supporters are more credulous to begin with but also because outrageous exaggeration (aka lying) is part of his thing; it's priced in.

    For once, the debates might actually matter.

    Is it possible they might both duck the debates as too risky?

    If they are both gaga (and I suspect they are, or heading there) then neither of them will want live debates

    Has this ever happened before? No debates at all?
    Yes these two old fossils duking it out is a real symbol of the west in decline. Very sad.
    Putins in the same age group

    He thinks he can go on until he's in an Andropovian state of vegetation

    Rusky (night) Mare
    No Putin is 71 i think so a spring chicken. Way too young to be US President.
    well I can accept he's a bit of a chicken
    He's a chicken that likes a bit of cock.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,924
    Truman said:

    Scott_xP said:

    There is no leadership challenge. Meanwhile, here is a completely unrelated briefing...

    @benrileysmith

    Sunak allies are noting Penny Mordaunt is at risk of losing her seat at the next election and warning a 'Jo Swinson' moment could follow if she became leader.

    the tories look absolutely ridiculous now. Just go to the country.
    With so little actual political news around - Westminster journalists are making it up to have something to talk about
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,406
    Scott_xP said:

    There is no leadership challenge. Meanwhile, here is a completely unrelated briefing...

    @benrileysmith

    Sunak allies are noting Penny Mordaunt is at risk of losing her seat at the next election and warning a 'Jo Swinson' moment could follow if she became leader.

    Now Sturgeon's no longer FM presumably she's available for hire to do a delighted little jig. They can just record it once and then play it every time a big beast loses their seat.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,167

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    Neither Trump nor Biden are in A1 mental health, and are in considerably worse physical health. The question is how likely is it that the one or the other says something so out-of-touch with reality that it bombs their support in a seriously damaging way. The American public have proven remarkably tolerant on that score so far, not least because how much each side fears the other.

    Obviously, Trump has always had a much bigger pass on that sort of thing, partly because his supporters are more credulous to begin with but also because outrageous exaggeration (aka lying) is part of his thing; it's priced in.

    For once, the debates might actually matter.

    Is it possible they might both duck the debates as too risky?

    If they are both gaga (and I suspect they are, or heading there) then neither of them will want live debates

    Has this ever happened before? No debates at all?
    Yes these two old fossils duking it out is a real symbol of the west in decline. Very sad.
    Putins in the same age group

    He thinks he can go on until he's in an Andropovian state of vegetation

    Rusky (night) Mare
    Chernenkian, Shirley?

    My stepmother thinks he was one of the best Soviet leaders - being dead for his entire leadership means he couldn't start any military adventures, couldn't steal, couldn't fuck up the economy even more, etc etc.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,275
    Scott_xP said:

    There is no leadership challenge. Meanwhile, here is a completely unrelated briefing...

    @benrileysmith

    Sunak allies are noting Penny Mordaunt is at risk of losing her seat at the next election and warning a 'Jo Swinson' moment could follow if she became leader.

    Something's afoot. I wonder if a Mordaunt/Truss dream ticket is being planned.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,752

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    Neither Trump nor Biden are in A1 mental health, and are in considerably worse physical health. The question is how likely is it that the one or the other says something so out-of-touch with reality that it bombs their support in a seriously damaging way. The American public have proven remarkably tolerant on that score so far, not least because how much each side fears the other.

    Obviously, Trump has always had a much bigger pass on that sort of thing, partly because his supporters are more credulous to begin with but also because outrageous exaggeration (aka lying) is part of his thing; it's priced in.

    For once, the debates might actually matter.

    Is it possible they might both duck the debates as too risky?

    If they are both gaga (and I suspect they are, or heading there) then neither of them will want live debates

    Has this ever happened before? No debates at all?
    Yes these two old fossils duking it out is a real symbol of the west in decline. Very sad.
    Putins in the same age group

    He thinks he can go on until he's in an Andropovian state of vegetation

    Rusky (night) Mare
    Chernenkian, Shirley?

    My stepmother thinks he was one of the best Soviet leaders - being dead for his entire leadership means he couldn't start any military adventures, couldn't steal, couldn't fuck up the economy even more, etc etc.
    Chernenko was ukranian so no longer appropriate, whereas Andropov was a KGB man like mad Vlad.
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    I wonder what will happen if the powers that be manage to bankrupt Trump. Will his supporters rally round and get even more fired up or will they turn away.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,215
    Truman said:

    I wonder what will happen if the powers that be manage to bankrupt Trump. Will his supporters rally round and get even more fired up or will they turn away.

    Already turning away.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,243
    Obama seeing Sunak, I can think of quite a few.

    Obama acting as a Silicon Valley headhunter,
    Call an election now please we can’t have both UK and US changing power to Russian special interests in the same month,
    Biden is reluctantly going to revoke Harry’s visa,
    Something to do with Ukraine / Russia, or Israel / Gaza,
    Disclosure related.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,102

    Truman said:

    I wonder what will happen if the powers that be manage to bankrupt Trump. Will his supporters rally round and get even more fired up or will they turn away.

    Already turning away.
    There is a suggestion that he has found some other appeal but, failing that, I think he has until the 25th to come up with the bond or Trump Tower is likely to be seized by the state of New York in partial payment of his fine. At which point the rest of the dominoes could fall very fast.
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 415
    edited March 18
    Scott_xP said:

    There is no leadership challenge. Meanwhile, here is a completely unrelated briefing...

    @benrileysmith

    Sunak allies are noting Penny Mordaunt is at risk of losing her seat at the next election and warning a 'Jo Swinson' moment could follow if she became leader.

    What relevance is Jo Swinson to the LibDems now? With allies like that, does Sunak need any opponents? They seem to be saying he's the right man to lead the party if it loses all the seats it currently holds with majorities of less than 16000. Say that actually happened. If the leader was Mordaunt, who'd give a damn if she lost her seat and had to be replaced as party leader? Why even would any MPs give a damn at that point?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,243
    DavidL said:

    Truman said:

    I wonder what will happen if the powers that be manage to bankrupt Trump. Will his supporters rally round and get even more fired up or will they turn away.

    Already turning away.
    There is a suggestion that he has found some other appeal but, failing that, I think he has until the 25th to come up with the bond or Trump Tower is likely to be seized by the state of New York in partial payment of his fine. At which point the rest of the dominoes could fall very fast.
    When I visited New York many years ago, I visited Trump Tower and took a shit without buying a coffee. It was ace.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,102
    moonshine said:

    DavidL said:

    Truman said:

    I wonder what will happen if the powers that be manage to bankrupt Trump. Will his supporters rally round and get even more fired up or will they turn away.

    Already turning away.
    There is a suggestion that he has found some other appeal but, failing that, I think he has until the 25th to come up with the bond or Trump Tower is likely to be seized by the state of New York in partial payment of his fine. At which point the rest of the dominoes could fall very fast.
    When I visited New York many years ago, I visited Trump Tower and took a shit without buying a coffee. It was ace.
    Something for nothing from DJT. That is indeed something to be proud of. For the vast majority it is the other way around.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,215
    edited March 18
    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest Conservative % with Rishi Sunak as PM.

    Westminster Voting Intention (17 March):

    Labour 47% (+5)
    Conservative 21% (-3)
    Reform UK 14% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-4)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 10 Mar

    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1769770749370200358?s=46
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    DavidL said:

    Truman said:

    I wonder what will happen if the powers that be manage to bankrupt Trump. Will his supporters rally round and get even more fired up or will they turn away.

    Already turning away.
    There is a suggestion that he has found some other appeal but, failing that, I think he has until the 25th to come up with the bond or Trump Tower is likely to be seized by the state of New York in partial payment of his fine. At which point the rest of the dominoes could fall very fast.
    His appeal you see is based on him being a winner or at least seen to be. Without that hes just like some old man ranting at a bar and they are ten a penny.
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279

    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest Conservative % with Rishi Sunak as PM.

    Westminster Voting Intention (17 March):

    Labour 47% (+5)
    Conservative 21% (-3)
    Reform UK 14% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-4)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 10 Mar

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…

    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1769770749370200358?s=46

    thats ok the tories are consolidating above 20%. All to play for given that Jacob Rees Mogg could still hold his seat. "were you up for Mogg" lol
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 415
    edited March 18
    moonshine said:

    DavidL said:

    Truman said:

    I wonder what will happen if the powers that be manage to bankrupt Trump. Will his supporters rally round and get even more fired up or will they turn away.

    Already turning away.
    There is a suggestion that he has found some other appeal but, failing that, I think he has until the 25th to come up with the bond or Trump Tower is likely to be seized by the state of New York in partial payment of his fine. At which point the rest of the dominoes could fall very fast.
    When I visited New York many years ago, I visited Trump Tower and took a shit without buying a coffee. It was ace.
    They say the marble is quite good even if the kerning is crap. I wouldn't try taking a shit anywhere near the Cosmati pavement. There's the ice rink in Central Park too.

    Now I'm wondering if the state of NY does seize the building, will they charge him rent for his highly tasteful triplex apartment?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,406

    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest Conservative % with Rishi Sunak as PM.

    Westminster Voting Intention (17 March):

    Labour 47% (+5)
    Conservative 21% (-3)
    Reform UK 14% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-4)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 10 Mar

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…

    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1769770749370200358?s=46

    Odd set of swings there, but R&W does tend to be a bit swingy between polls, like Yougov. LD -4, Lab +5 for example.

    Main thing is the LLG:Refcon score and this is middle of the recent pack: 61:35, up 2 for LLG since last time.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,537
    edited March 18

    Scott_xP said:

    There is no leadership challenge. Meanwhile, here is a completely unrelated briefing...

    @benrileysmith

    Sunak allies are noting Penny Mordaunt is at risk of losing her seat at the next election and warning a 'Jo Swinson' moment could follow if she became leader.

    Something's afoot. I wonder if a Mordaunt/Truss dream ticket is being planned.
    Whose dream? They should be seeking help.
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    More intelligent remarks from Laurence Fox.

    Biden is goading Trump and his supporters into violence.

    Last chance saloon for a fallen, corrupt and evil regime.

    They know he is finished, so they would rather take down America than let the people decide.

    How did the world become this unstable this fast?
    4:55 PM · Mar 18, 2024
    ·
    4,858
    Views
    https://x.com/LozzaFox/status/1769769545068151134?s=20
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,215
    Truman said:

    More intelligent remarks from Laurence Fox.

    Biden is goading Trump and his supporters into violence.

    Last chance saloon for a fallen, corrupt and evil regime.

    They know he is finished, so they would rather take down America than let the people decide.

    How did the world become this unstable this fast?
    4:55 PM · Mar 18, 2024
    ·
    4,858
    Views
    https://x.com/LozzaFox/status/1769769545068151134?s=20

    What fucking bullshit.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,243
    By the way @HYUFD genuine lolz at your comment about ERII’s rationale for pushing Charles into marrying Diana. Probably true!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,597
    Truman said:

    More intelligent remarks from Laurence Fox.

    Biden is goading Trump and his supporters into violence.

    Last chance saloon for a fallen, corrupt and evil regime.

    They know he is finished, so they would rather take down America than let the people decide.

    How did the world become this unstable this fast?
    4:55 PM · Mar 18, 2024
    ·
    4,858
    Views
    https://x.com/LozzaFox/status/1769769545068151134?s=20

    Be honest. Letting out a mild fart would goad Trump and his supporters into violence.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,237
    TimS said:

    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest Conservative % with Rishi Sunak as PM.

    Westminster Voting Intention (17 March):

    Labour 47% (+5)
    Conservative 21% (-3)
    Reform UK 14% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-4)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 10 Mar

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…

    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1769770749370200358?s=46

    Odd set of swings there, but R&W does tend to be a bit swingy between polls, like Yougov. LD -4, Lab +5 for example.

    Main thing is the LLG:Refcon score and this is middle of the recent pack: 61:35, up 2 for LLG since last time.
    Sunak tanking in the polls is very obvious, but in this poll none of it has gone to Reform and even the Lib Dem vote seems to be in trouble

    I have no idea how long this can go on but it appears to me that Sunak has a classic case of being in denial, or he just doesn't care as he will have been PM and has no problems for his future financial security
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,480
    Truman said:

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    Neither Trump nor Biden are in A1 mental health, and are in considerably worse physical health. The question is how likely is it that the one or the other says something so out-of-touch with reality that it bombs their support in a seriously damaging way. The American public have proven remarkably tolerant on that score so far, not least because how much each side fears the other.

    Obviously, Trump has always had a much bigger pass on that sort of thing, partly because his supporters are more credulous to begin with but also because outrageous exaggeration (aka lying) is part of his thing; it's priced in.

    For once, the debates might actually matter.

    Is it possible they might both duck the debates as too risky?

    If they are both gaga (and I suspect they are, or heading there) then neither of them will want live debates

    Has this ever happened before? No debates at all?
    Yes these two old fossils duking it out is a real symbol of the west in decline. Very sad.
    Putins in the same age group

    He thinks he can go on until he's in an Andropovian state of vegetation

    Rusky (night) Mare
    No Putin is 71 i think so a spring chicken. Way too young to be US President.
    Yes but Russians die young so pretty similar for remaining life years.

    Biden will go on forever, like Jimmy Carter.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,167
    Truman said:

    More intelligent remarks from Laurence Fox.

    Biden is goading Trump and his supporters into violence.

    Last chance saloon for a fallen, corrupt and evil regime.

    They know he is finished, so they would rather take down America than let the people decide.

    How did the world become this unstable this fast?
    4:55 PM · Mar 18, 2024
    ·
    4,858
    Views
    https://x.com/LozzaFox/status/1769769545068151134?s=20

    You used the word "Intelligent" to describe Laurence Fox.

    WTAF?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,925
    Truman said:

    More intelligent remarks from Laurence Fox.

    Biden is goading Trump and his supporters into violence.

    Last chance saloon for a fallen, corrupt and evil regime.

    They know he is finished, so they would rather take down America than let the people decide.

    How did the world become this unstable this fast?
    4:55 PM · Mar 18, 2024
    ·
    4,858
    Views
    https://x.com/LozzaFox/status/1769769545068151134?s=20

    Fucking moronic shysters like Laurence Fox have played no small part.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,752
    Foxy said:

    Truman said:

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    Neither Trump nor Biden are in A1 mental health, and are in considerably worse physical health. The question is how likely is it that the one or the other says something so out-of-touch with reality that it bombs their support in a seriously damaging way. The American public have proven remarkably tolerant on that score so far, not least because how much each side fears the other.

    Obviously, Trump has always had a much bigger pass on that sort of thing, partly because his supporters are more credulous to begin with but also because outrageous exaggeration (aka lying) is part of his thing; it's priced in.

    For once, the debates might actually matter.

    Is it possible they might both duck the debates as too risky?

    If they are both gaga (and I suspect they are, or heading there) then neither of them will want live debates

    Has this ever happened before? No debates at all?
    Yes these two old fossils duking it out is a real symbol of the west in decline. Very sad.
    Putins in the same age group

    He thinks he can go on until he's in an Andropovian state of vegetation

    Rusky (night) Mare
    No Putin is 71 i think so a spring chicken. Way too young to be US President.
    Yes but Russians die young so pretty similar for remaining life years.

    Biden will go on forever, like Jimmy Carter.
    Carter will be 100 this year on 1 October.

    I hope he makes it
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,829

    I have no idea how long this can go on but it appears to me that Sunak has a classic case of being in denial, or he just doesn't care as he will have been PM and has no problems for his future financial security

    Sadly he will have to leave his mansion in sunny California once a year to stand in the freezing November rain in London to watch Keir Starmer lay a wreath
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    Leon said:

    Neither Trump nor Biden are in A1 mental health, and are in considerably worse physical health. The question is how likely is it that the one or the other says something so out-of-touch with reality that it bombs their support in a seriously damaging way. The American public have proven remarkably tolerant on that score so far, not least because how much each side fears the other.

    Obviously, Trump has always had a much bigger pass on that sort of thing, partly because his supporters are more credulous to begin with but also because outrageous exaggeration (aka lying) is part of his thing; it's priced in.

    For once, the debates might actually matter.

    Is it possible they might both duck the debates as too risky?

    If they are both gaga (and I suspect they are, or heading there) then neither of them will want live debates

    Has this ever happened before? No debates at all?
    The last time there weren't debates was in 1972 - but that was before they'd become a fixture (the only previous occasion was 1960, when neither candidate was an incumbent).

    I can well believe that neither would necessarily want the debates (or their teams might well not), but they also don't want to be the one to reject them as that'd be the tacit admission that they weren't up to it. The question is whether they could get out of them without it looking like they were trying to get out of them.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,237
    Scott_xP said:

    I have no idea how long this can go on but it appears to me that Sunak has a classic case of being in denial, or he just doesn't care as he will have been PM and has no problems for his future financial security

    Sadly he will have to leave his mansion in sunny California once a year to stand in the freezing November rain in London to watch Keir Starmer lay a wreath
    Never mind, he will have Boris and Truss as well
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest Conservative % with Rishi Sunak as PM.

    Westminster Voting Intention (17 March):

    Labour 47% (+5)
    Conservative 21% (-3)
    Reform UK 14% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-4)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 10 Mar

    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1769770749370200358?s=46

    For comparison, in whole of Jan-Apr 1997 (ie before the election) the lowest Con share was 27%, and the largest Labour lead was Lab+28. And that was in polls which routinely overstated the Labour lead by about 5% (albeit in a three-party system, where all of Con/Lab/LD were polling higher than they are now).
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,898
    Foxy said:

    Truman said:

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    Neither Trump nor Biden are in A1 mental health, and are in considerably worse physical health. The question is how likely is it that the one or the other says something so out-of-touch with reality that it bombs their support in a seriously damaging way. The American public have proven remarkably tolerant on that score so far, not least because how much each side fears the other.

    Obviously, Trump has always had a much bigger pass on that sort of thing, partly because his supporters are more credulous to begin with but also because outrageous exaggeration (aka lying) is part of his thing; it's priced in.

    For once, the debates might actually matter.

    Is it possible they might both duck the debates as too risky?

    If they are both gaga (and I suspect they are, or heading there) then neither of them will want live debates

    Has this ever happened before? No debates at all?
    Yes these two old fossils duking it out is a real symbol of the west in decline. Very sad.
    Putins in the same age group

    He thinks he can go on until he's in an Andropovian state of vegetation

    Rusky (night) Mare
    No Putin is 71 i think so a spring chicken. Way too young to be US President.
    Yes but Russians die young so pretty similar for remaining life years.

    Biden will go on forever, like Jimmy Carter.
    Russian politicians only die young if they stand too near windows. Especially if they’re on the 10th floor, or above.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,348
    Truman said:

    More intelligent remarks from Laurence Fox.

    Biden is goading Trump and his supporters into violence.

    Last chance saloon for a fallen, corrupt and evil regime.

    They know he is finished, so they would rather take down America than let the people decide.

    How did the world become this unstable this fast?
    4:55 PM · Mar 18, 2024
    ·
    4,858
    Views
    https://x.com/LozzaFox/status/1769769545068151134?s=20

    How did Laurence Fox become so unstable so fast?

    A few years ago, he was a quite-good actor who played at least one really good fictional character and had a semi-famous real life wife. And that was all I knew him for.
    Then he went on Question Time and -in response to someone madly left wing saying something boringly mad about, I forget now, probably immigration or race relations - said something not particularly controversial, and got a lot of plaudits from right wing commentators like Alison Pearson ("look at that! He's an actor, yet he said something I agreed with!"). And then he went mad. I can only assume he really, really enjoyed the likes and retweets and sought more of them (cf. Lineker). But at least Lineker didn't start wearing a cape.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,537
    We seem to have a new-style Russian troll - "play it very gently comrade so you don't get banned".

    But really what is the point? As soon as these trolls decide they need to put the party line across it becomes obvious what they are and nobody takes any notice. Then they get banned anyway.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    Leon said:

    Neither Trump nor Biden are in A1 mental health, and are in considerably worse physical health. The question is how likely is it that the one or the other says something so out-of-touch with reality that it bombs their support in a seriously damaging way. The American public have proven remarkably tolerant on that score so far, not least because how much each side fears the other.

    Obviously, Trump has always had a much bigger pass on that sort of thing, partly because his supporters are more credulous to begin with but also because outrageous exaggeration (aka lying) is part of his thing; it's priced in.

    For once, the debates might actually matter.

    Is it possible they might both duck the debates as too risky?

    If they are both gaga (and I suspect they are, or heading there) then neither of them will want live debates

    Has this ever happened before? No debates at all?
    The last time there weren't debates was in 1972 - but that was before they'd become a fixture (the only previous occasion was 1960, when neither candidate was an incumbent).

    I can well believe that neither would necessarily want the debates (or their teams might well not), but they also don't want to be the one to reject them as that'd be the tacit admission that they weren't up to it. The question is whether they could get out of them without it looking like they were trying to get out of them.
    Mentioning 1976, as the first 'standard' presidential debate, a fun fact from them: Jimmy Carter's team insisted that the candidates have glasses of water on their lecterns, as they hoped that the notoriously clumsy Gerald Ford would knock his off. Ford's team were similarly worried that he would, so glued it down.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,438

    Truman said:

    More intelligent remarks from Laurence Fox.

    Biden is goading Trump and his supporters into violence.

    Last chance saloon for a fallen, corrupt and evil regime.

    They know he is finished, so they would rather take down America than let the people decide.

    How did the world become this unstable this fast?
    4:55 PM · Mar 18, 2024
    ·
    4,858
    Views
    https://x.com/LozzaFox/status/1769769545068151134?s=20

    What fucking bullshit.
    Please ban this bot.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,134
    Leon said:

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    Neither Trump nor Biden are in A1 mental health, and are in considerably worse physical health. The question is how likely is it that the one or the other says something so out-of-touch with reality that it bombs their support in a seriously damaging way. The American public have proven remarkably tolerant on that score so far, not least because how much each side fears the other.

    Obviously, Trump has always had a much bigger pass on that sort of thing, partly because his supporters are more credulous to begin with but also because outrageous exaggeration (aka lying) is part of his thing; it's priced in.

    For once, the debates might actually matter.

    Is it possible they might both duck the debates as too risky?

    If they are both gaga (and I suspect they are, or heading there) then neither of them will want live debates

    Has this ever happened before? No debates at all?
    Yes these two old fossils duking it out is a real symbol of the west in decline. Very sad.
    But is it even possible? Politically?

    I don’t think the tv debates are legally obligatory but it would surely be unprecedented (in the tv era) for them not to happen
    The only way I can see them not happening (and I think they are quite likely not to happen) is for Trump to be "all in" on the debates, then to refuse to agree the rules because of the lying cheating Dems and performatively flounce, with Team Biden happy to use the cover to duck the issue.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,480

    Leon said:

    Neither Trump nor Biden are in A1 mental health, and are in considerably worse physical health. The question is how likely is it that the one or the other says something so out-of-touch with reality that it bombs their support in a seriously damaging way. The American public have proven remarkably tolerant on that score so far, not least because how much each side fears the other.

    Obviously, Trump has always had a much bigger pass on that sort of thing, partly because his supporters are more credulous to begin with but also because outrageous exaggeration (aka lying) is part of his thing; it's priced in.

    For once, the debates might actually matter.

    Is it possible they might both duck the debates as too risky?

    If they are both gaga (and I suspect they are, or heading there) then neither of them will want live debates

    Has this ever happened before? No debates at all?
    The last time there weren't debates was in 1972 - but that was before they'd become a fixture (the only previous occasion was 1960, when neither candidate was an incumbent).

    I can well believe that neither would necessarily want the debates (or their teams might well not), but they also don't want to be the one to reject them as that'd be the tacit admission that they weren't up to it. The question is whether they could get out of them without it looking like they were trying to get out of them.
    I think Biden would be up for it, but Trump will try to weasel out.

    When our leaders want to dodge debates they just object to the terms, conditions and host so as to make them impossible.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,537
    edited March 18

    I think this might be my first first in ages, like three days and seven threads?

    It's uncanny how often you manage to spot a new header that you've just posted.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,480
    I suspect Bidens shoes are more for a foot problem than stability. Arthritis of ankle or toes, or perhaps even bone spurs.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,898
    Scott_xP said:

    I have no idea how long this can go on but it appears to me that Sunak has a classic case of being in denial, or he just doesn't care as he will have been PM and has no problems for his future financial security

    Sadly he will have to leave his mansion in sunny California once a year to stand in the freezing November rain in London to watch Keir Starmer lay a wreath
    My heart bleeds!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,872
    edited March 18
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theipaper

    Opinion | Even Rishi’s ring-binder can’t stop the Tory death spiral

    Emotional intelligence is the missing ingredient in the Sunak mix and it is coming to dominate everything, as both voters and MPs ask whether the PM really gets it, writes
    @KateEMcCann

    https://t.co/yDwgIOZrnE

    I don't even put this down to emotional intelligence. If he was willing to propose and enact policies that would actually help people, still being the feckless wet hen he is, I think people would cut him more slack. The issue is that no politician seems up for proposing things people like and know will help them - which would be more government spending on services and increased taxes on those with high levels of wealth and income, alongside sensible regulation to counter the inflation we have seen in the last 6 months. People aren't stupid - they see their electric and gas bills increase at the same time headlines cry how much profit these companies are making. People see their Council Tax go up and local services and roads crumble. They just want things to be less shit.
    Trouble is, taxes are already high

    If you increase taxes on the wealthy they will just fuck off abroad - like me. So many jobs can now be done remotely - and thanks to digital nomad visas other countries are making it highly feasible to move to sunnier climes with much lower tax rates. Ok these new places will have less fascinating cultural diversity and fewer menacing pro Palestinian rallies and you’ve got to put up with nightlife that actually goes on after 11pm but nothing is perfect
    I was in Hackney on Saturday. The pub we were in closed at 12pm, so we walked up the road (ten minutes) to another pub that was playing pounding music until 2am.

    You are out of touch.
    No I’m not. The Times - today



    And those Hackney venues are doomed. Hackney council have just passed laws closing everything at 11 or 12 at most. It only applies to new places now but it will be extended. That’s Khan’s new joyless London and it will only get worse

    “In Hackney, all new venues must close by 11PM Mon-Fri and 12PM at the weekend. No new venues can operate later than this.

    Over time the existing venues will need new licenses and therefore the venues that are open after 11/12 will slowly erode until there is literally none left.”

    https://x.com/lukerobertblack/status/1764372293357048228?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    Again, you are projecting. The venues in Hackney were OPEN on Saturday. I was THERE.

    As for this Times clickbait nonsense, two-seconds on Google Maps shows you how many bars in Soho are open top 12am, 1am, later... (TLDR – the answer is LOTS). I had 'breakfast' at Balans with a cocktail at 3am very recently. On a Thursday. It does close early on a Thursday admittedly – at 5am rather than 6am.

    The closing of London’s nightlife is not an illusion. I’ve seen it with my own eyes. Sadly

    And the Hackney changes are only coming in now: read my comment. It will take a few years for khan to close it down completely. But he will
    Going the way of your other famous predictions:

    • Self-driving cars
    • Chinese GDP
    • Truss surprising on the upside

    (P.S. Licensing in Hackney has nothing to do with Sadiq Khan)
    Chinese GDP







    Nor is this a statistical illusion, as the FT data crunchers (probably the best in the biz) have noted:



    Nope, that's PPP. You are moving the goalposts AGAIN. Just admit you got this one wrong FFS.
    I got it bang on. And the FT explains why China really does have a bigger economy and it’s not statistical illusions


    It’s there. Read it you fucking idiot
    No. You were completely wrong. You predicted China's economy would be bigger than that of the United States BY GDP by now.

    Not PPP, not GDP per capita, not any other measure of national output.

    By GDP.

    GDP.

    Yet China's GDP is not greater than the United States' GDP.

    In fact, it is nowhere near.

    You were out by an absolute mile.

    Just admit that you got this one wrong, it's not difficult.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,335

    TimS said:

    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest Conservative % with Rishi Sunak as PM.

    Westminster Voting Intention (17 March):

    Labour 47% (+5)
    Conservative 21% (-3)
    Reform UK 14% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-4)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 10 Mar

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…

    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1769770749370200358?s=46

    Odd set of swings there, but R&W does tend to be a bit swingy between polls, like Yougov. LD -4, Lab +5 for example.

    Main thing is the LLG:Refcon score and this is middle of the recent pack: 61:35, up 2 for LLG since last time.
    Sunak tanking in the polls is very obvious, but in this poll none of it has gone to Reform and even the Lib Dem vote seems to be in trouble

    I have no idea how long this can go on but it appears to me that Sunak has a classic case of being in denial, or he just doesn't care as he will have been PM and has no problems for his future financial security
    I'm not sure it's that, so much as the overconfidence of a proven analytical problem solver (his CV must have somesuch guff on it) running into a problem he can't solve and responding with an impersonation of a rabbit caught in headlights.

    If he calls a general election now, he's stuffed. If he resigns, that's to admit failure. So he has to hang on, pressing buttons that aren't connected to anything, in the hope that something turns up. A plane to Rwanda, another tax cut.

    Something.

    After all, it's not as if there's anyone out there who is obviously transformatively better.

    One other thing. One of the reasons for Conservative success in my lifetime is that the centre-right vote has been united and the centre-left has been divided. Liberals and Socialists have hated each other more than they hated the Tories. The rise of RefUK and the beige tolerability of Starmer have turned that on its head, with the outcome we're currently seeing.
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279

    Truman said:

    More intelligent remarks from Laurence Fox.

    Biden is goading Trump and his supporters into violence.

    Last chance saloon for a fallen, corrupt and evil regime.

    They know he is finished, so they would rather take down America than let the people decide.

    How did the world become this unstable this fast?
    4:55 PM · Mar 18, 2024
    ·
    4,858
    Views
    https://x.com/LozzaFox/status/1769769545068151134?s=20

    You used the word "Intelligent" to describe Laurence Fox.

    WTAF?
    I was being ironic.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,433
    With Deltapoll and now Redfield & Wilton showing large movements away from Conservatives this suggests that some event has had a polling impact.

    Delayed response to the budget?
    Not calling a May election?
    Hester's comments and donation?

    My inclination is that it is the latter.

    Could be a costly £15m.
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279

    With Deltapoll and now Redfield & Wilton showing large movements away from Conservatives this suggests that some event has had a polling impact.

    Delayed response to the budget?
    Not calling a May election?
    Hester's comments and donation?

    My inclination is that it is the latter.

    Could be a costly £15m.

    The mordaunt rumours perhaps.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,134

    Truman said:

    More intelligent remarks from Laurence Fox.

    Biden is goading Trump and his supporters into violence.

    Last chance saloon for a fallen, corrupt and evil regime.

    They know he is finished, so they would rather take down America than let the people decide.

    How did the world become this unstable this fast?
    4:55 PM · Mar 18, 2024
    ·
    4,858
    Views
    https://x.com/LozzaFox/status/1769769545068151134?s=20

    You used the word "Intelligent" to describe Laurence Fox.

    WTAF?
    It is a worrying development. I don't think we've ever had a poster that has proposed that notion before!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,480

    With Deltapoll and now Redfield & Wilton showing large movements away from Conservatives this suggests that some event has had a polling impact.

    Delayed response to the budget?
    Not calling a May election?
    Hester's comments and donation?

    My inclination is that it is the latter.

    Could be a costly £15m.

    Matt is on form today to explain:


  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,348
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    Neither Trump nor Biden are in A1 mental health, and are in considerably worse physical health. The question is how likely is it that the one or the other says something so out-of-touch with reality that it bombs their support in a seriously damaging way. The American public have proven remarkably tolerant on that score so far, not least because how much each side fears the other.

    Obviously, Trump has always had a much bigger pass on that sort of thing, partly because his supporters are more credulous to begin with but also because outrageous exaggeration (aka lying) is part of his thing; it's priced in.

    For once, the debates might actually matter.

    Is it possible they might both duck the debates as too risky?

    If they are both gaga (and I suspect they are, or heading there) then neither of them will want live debates

    Has this ever happened before? No debates at all?
    Yes these two old fossils duking it out is a real symbol of the west in decline. Very sad.
    But is it even possible? Politically?

    I don’t think the tv debates are legally obligatory but it would surely be unprecedented (in the tv era) for them not to happen
    The coward Trump has already skipped the GOP debates because he is too frit.
    I’m not sure it was coz he’s frit as much as he didn’t need to debate - you don’t debate if you are cruising to victory

    However he might well be frit of national debates against Biden. And Biden likewise

    So maybe they won’t happen
    A Trump/Biden debate could be an absolute car crash.

    In an ideal world, everyone will watch in horror then vote for the bassist out of Nirvana*. Though in reality, seeing two terrible candidates just reinforces the votes for both of them (the 'Don't blame me, I voted for Kodos' paradox).

    *I think - though I may be out of date on this - that while one of Nirvana killed himself poetically and one became the biggest rockstar in the world, the third went on to lead (one of?) America's third parties, standing on the ticket that America's most pressing issue is that it really, really needs a less polarised and partisan polity. Which I can't disagree with.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,237

    TimS said:

    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest Conservative % with Rishi Sunak as PM.

    Westminster Voting Intention (17 March):

    Labour 47% (+5)
    Conservative 21% (-3)
    Reform UK 14% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-4)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 10 Mar

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…

    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1769770749370200358?s=46

    Odd set of swings there, but R&W does tend to be a bit swingy between polls, like Yougov. LD -4, Lab +5 for example.

    Main thing is the LLG:Refcon score and this is middle of the recent pack: 61:35, up 2 for LLG since last time.
    Sunak tanking in the polls is very obvious, but in this poll none of it has gone to Reform and even the Lib Dem vote seems to be in trouble

    I have no idea how long this can go on but it appears to me that Sunak has a classic case of being in denial, or he just doesn't care as he will have been PM and has no problems for his future financial security
    I'm not sure it's that, so much as the overconfidence of a proven analytical problem solver (his CV must have somesuch guff on it) running into a problem he can't solve and responding with an impersonation of a rabbit caught in headlights.

    If he calls a general election now, he's stuffed. If he resigns, that's to admit failure. So he has to hang on, pressing buttons that aren't connected to anything, in the hope that something turns up. A plane to Rwanda, another tax cut.

    Something.

    After all, it's not as if there's anyone out there who is obviously transformatively better.

    One other thing. One of the reasons for Conservative success in my lifetime is that the centre-right vote has been united and the centre-left has been divided. Liberals and Socialists have hated each other more than they hated the Tories. The rise of RefUK and the beige tolerability of Starmer have turned that on its head, with the outcome we're currently seeing.
    A fair assessment
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,537

    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest Conservative % with Rishi Sunak as PM.

    Westminster Voting Intention (17 March):

    Labour 47% (+5)
    Conservative 21% (-3)
    Reform UK 14% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-4)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 10 Mar

    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1769770749370200358?s=46

    I thought somebody ought to run that through the Electoral Calculus predictor for lolz. LDs become official opposition:

    image
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,796
    Scott_xP said:

    There is no leadership challenge. Meanwhile, here is a completely unrelated briefing...

    @benrileysmith

    Sunak allies are noting Penny Mordaunt is at risk of losing her seat at the next election and warning a 'Jo Swinson' moment could follow if she became leader.

    So Sunak allies are admitting that seats where the Tories got 61% in 2019 and Labour got 27% are at risk?
    With allies like that .. ?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,237
    Truman said:

    With Deltapoll and now Redfield & Wilton showing large movements away from Conservatives this suggests that some event has had a polling impact.

    Delayed response to the budget?
    Not calling a May election?
    Hester's comments and donation?

    My inclination is that it is the latter.

    Could be a costly £15m.

    The mordaunt rumours perhaps.
    Sky just saying to emphasise the point that Mordaunt has just demolished a Labour mp from the dispatch box
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,237

    With Deltapoll and now Redfield & Wilton showing large movements away from Conservatives this suggests that some event has had a polling impact.

    Delayed response to the budget?
    Not calling a May election?
    Hester's comments and donation?

    My inclination is that it is the latter.

    Could be a costly £15m.

    Fairly certain it is the Hester response
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,914
    DavidL said:

    Truman said:

    I wonder what will happen if the powers that be manage to bankrupt Trump. Will his supporters rally round and get even more fired up or will they turn away.

    Already turning away.
    There is a suggestion that he has found some other appeal but, failing that, I think he has until the 25th to come up with the bond or Trump Tower is likely to be seized by the state of New York in partial payment of his fine. At which point the rest of the dominoes could fall very fast.
    The danger for Trump is that he ends up defaulting on a loan payment, in which case... phewy... it could all come tumbling very quickly indeed. Because - in all probability - there will be cross default clauses - default on anything, and all the loans get called at once.

    Now, my gut is that there is probably plenty of equity across the Trump group. But he probably needs to sell something big (and unencumbered) fast.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 2,758

    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest Conservative % with Rishi Sunak as PM.

    Westminster Voting Intention (17 March):

    Labour 47% (+5)
    Conservative 21% (-3)
    Reform UK 14% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-4)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 10 Mar

    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1769770749370200358?s=46

    Lib Dem Spring Conference bounce
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,914
    Truman said:

    More intelligent remarks from Laurence Fox.

    Biden is goading Trump and his supporters into violence.

    Last chance saloon for a fallen, corrupt and evil regime.

    They know he is finished, so they would rather take down America than let the people decide.

    How did the world become this unstable this fast?
    4:55 PM · Mar 18, 2024
    ·
    4,858
    Views
    https://x.com/LozzaFox/status/1769769545068151134?s=20

    Could you please point me to the previous intelligent remarks from Laurence Fox?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,335
    rcs1000 said:

    Truman said:

    More intelligent remarks from Laurence Fox.

    Biden is goading Trump and his supporters into violence.

    Last chance saloon for a fallen, corrupt and evil regime.

    They know he is finished, so they would rather take down America than let the people decide.

    How did the world become this unstable this fast?
    4:55 PM · Mar 18, 2024
    ·
    4,858
    Views
    https://x.com/LozzaFox/status/1769769545068151134?s=20

    Could you please point me to the previous intelligent remarks from Laurence Fox?
    That Billie Piper is lovely?
    When did he say that?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,537

    Truman said:

    With Deltapoll and now Redfield & Wilton showing large movements away from Conservatives this suggests that some event has had a polling impact.

    Delayed response to the budget?
    Not calling a May election?
    Hester's comments and donation?

    My inclination is that it is the latter.

    Could be a costly £15m.

    The mordaunt rumours perhaps.
    Sky just saying to emphasise the point that Mordaunt has just demolished a Labour mp from the dispatch box
    Did she use the mace?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,241
    edited March 18
    I believe that today’s Redfield & Wilton 26% Labour lead is their highest for over a year? And the Conservative share of 21% is their lowest for, well, ages. I gave up scrolling back tbh.

    And Deltapoll have just followed that up with a 23% Labour lead, their highest since last September.

    Looking good with this decision to wait until the autumn.

    Things can only get ‘worser’ tra-la-la
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,934

    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest Conservative % with Rishi Sunak as PM.

    Westminster Voting Intention (17 March):

    Labour 47% (+5)
    Conservative 21% (-3)
    Reform UK 14% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-4)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 10 Mar

    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1769770749370200358?s=46

    I thought somebody ought to run that through the Electoral Calculus predictor for lolz. LDs become official opposition:

    image
    Tories still ahead of SNP though
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,557
    edited March 18
    HYUFD said:

    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest Conservative % with Rishi Sunak as PM.

    Westminster Voting Intention (17 March):

    Labour 47% (+5)
    Conservative 21% (-3)
    Reform UK 14% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-4)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 10 Mar

    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1769770749370200358?s=46

    I thought somebody ought to run that through the Electoral Calculus predictor for lolz. LDs become official opposition:

    image
    Tories still ahead of SNP though
    Not surprising with 10X as many constituencies to try, though.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,237
    HYUFD said:

    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest Conservative % with Rishi Sunak as PM.

    Westminster Voting Intention (17 March):

    Labour 47% (+5)
    Conservative 21% (-3)
    Reform UK 14% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-4)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 10 Mar

    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1769770749370200358?s=46

    I thought somebody ought to run that through the Electoral Calculus predictor for lolz. LDs become official opposition:

    image
    Tories still ahead of SNP though
    Is that a consolation
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,914
    Donkeys said:

    moonshine said:

    DavidL said:

    Truman said:

    I wonder what will happen if the powers that be manage to bankrupt Trump. Will his supporters rally round and get even more fired up or will they turn away.

    Already turning away.
    There is a suggestion that he has found some other appeal but, failing that, I think he has until the 25th to come up with the bond or Trump Tower is likely to be seized by the state of New York in partial payment of his fine. At which point the rest of the dominoes could fall very fast.
    When I visited New York many years ago, I visited Trump Tower and took a shit without buying a coffee. It was ace.
    They say the marble is quite good even if the kerning is crap. I wouldn't try taking a shit anywhere near the Cosmati pavement. There's the ice rink in Central Park too.

    Now I'm wondering if the state of NY does seize the building, will they charge him rent for his highly tasteful triplex apartment?
    Bear in mind that there will almost certainly be debt secured on Trump Tower. In the event that New York were to seize it, then the Trump Organization would likely have as little as 7 days to repay the debt to avoid a default.

    So I think it's fair to say that Trump will do everything he can to avoid that scenario.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 2,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Truman said:

    More intelligent remarks from Laurence Fox.

    Biden is goading Trump and his supporters into violence.

    Last chance saloon for a fallen, corrupt and evil regime.

    They know he is finished, so they would rather take down America than let the people decide.

    How did the world become this unstable this fast?
    4:55 PM · Mar 18, 2024
    ·
    4,858
    Views
    https://x.com/LozzaFox/status/1769769545068151134?s=20

    Could you please point me to the previous intelligent remarks from Laurence Fox?
    When he was in character playing Lewis's partner
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,934
    edited March 18

    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest Conservative % with Rishi Sunak as PM.

    Westminster Voting Intention (17 March):

    Labour 47% (+5)
    Conservative 21% (-3)
    Reform UK 14% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-4)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 10 Mar

    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1769770749370200358?s=46

    So according to Redfield the Tories are heading for their lowest voteshare at a UK general election ever while Reform will get the highest voteshare for a party right of the Tories at a general election ever, even higher than the 12.6% UKIP got in 2015
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,237

    Truman said:

    With Deltapoll and now Redfield & Wilton showing large movements away from Conservatives this suggests that some event has had a polling impact.

    Delayed response to the budget?
    Not calling a May election?
    Hester's comments and donation?

    My inclination is that it is the latter.

    Could be a costly £15m.

    The mordaunt rumours perhaps.
    Sky just saying to emphasise the point that Mordaunt has just demolished a Labour mp from the dispatch box
    Did she use the mace?
    She has that up her sleeve if required!!!!!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,537
    HYUFD said:

    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest Conservative % with Rishi Sunak as PM.

    Westminster Voting Intention (17 March):

    Labour 47% (+5)
    Conservative 21% (-3)
    Reform UK 14% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-4)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 10 Mar

    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1769770749370200358?s=46

    So according to Redfield the Tories are heading for their lowest voteshare at a UK general election ever while Reform will get the highest voteshare for a party right of the Tories at a general election ever, even higher than the 12% UKIP got in 2015
    14% and still no MPs.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,677
    Scott_xP said:

    I have no idea how long this can go on but it appears to me that Sunak has a classic case of being in denial, or he just doesn't care as he will have been PM and has no problems for his future financial security

    Sadly he will have to leave his mansion in sunny California once a year to stand in the freezing November rain in London to watch Keir Starmer lay a wreath
    I wonder whether Sunak will bother turning up to the Cenotaph every year. His commitment to the country he's prime minister of seems very thin.

    The other side of the coin is Liz Truss who is determined to stand in for a lettuce, forever, to remind us all she was the boss for a couple of nanoseconds.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,934
    edited March 18

    HYUFD said:

    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest Conservative % with Rishi Sunak as PM.

    Westminster Voting Intention (17 March):

    Labour 47% (+5)
    Conservative 21% (-3)
    Reform UK 14% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-4)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 10 Mar

    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1769770749370200358?s=46

    So according to Redfield the Tories are heading for their lowest voteshare at a UK general election ever while Reform will get the highest voteshare for a party right of the Tories at a general election ever, even higher than the 12% UKIP got in 2015
    14% and still no MPs.
    Yes, hence Farage supports PR (unless Reform actually do overtake the Tories on voteshare, in which case they would almost certainly overtake the Tories on seats too under FPTP).

    Ironically under PR the Tories would remain main opposition on this poll, only under FPTP do the LDs become main opposition. When the right is split therefore PR benefits the Tories and Reform far more than it does Labour and even more than it does the LDs too.

    See the 2019 EU Parliament elections under PR when Reform came top with 29 MEPs and 30.5% and the Tories won 4 MEPs with 8.8% of the vote, whereas the Tories would not have elected a simple MEP or indeed won a single parliamentary seat on the same voteshare under FPTP
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,237
    HYUFD said:

    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest Conservative % with Rishi Sunak as PM.

    Westminster Voting Intention (17 March):

    Labour 47% (+5)
    Conservative 21% (-3)
    Reform UK 14% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-4)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 10 Mar

    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1769770749370200358?s=46

    So according to Redfield the Tories are heading for their lowest voteshare at a UK general election ever while Reform will get the highest voteshare for a party right of the Tories at a general election ever, even higher than the 12.6% UKIP got in 2015
    And no seats - what's the point
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,537
    edited March 18
    HYUFD said:

    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest Conservative % with Rishi Sunak as PM.

    Westminster Voting Intention (17 March):

    Labour 47% (+5)
    Conservative 21% (-3)
    Reform UK 14% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-4)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 10 Mar

    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1769770749370200358?s=46

    I thought somebody ought to run that through the Electoral Calculus predictor for lolz. LDs become official opposition:

    image
    Tories still ahead of SNP though
    Every silver lining has a cloud.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,241
    edited March 18
    Those of you betting cautiously because of historic precedent might want to recall that these eye-watering Labour leads are in 1997 territory whilst the Conservative share of the vote is near 10% lower than 1997.

    Of course, Reform are just part of the tory problem (14% and 12% in these polls) but with Sunak in charge those votes are almost certainly lost to them. Apart from all else he betrayed The Blessed Boris. The Unforgivable Sin.

    You really think this won’t be a landslide …?
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