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Ayrshire hotelier’s troubles mount – politicalbetting.com

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  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027

    HYUFD said:

    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest Conservative % with Rishi Sunak as PM.

    Westminster Voting Intention (17 March):

    Labour 47% (+5)
    Conservative 21% (-3)
    Reform UK 14% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-4)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 10 Mar

    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1769770749370200358?s=46

    I thought somebody ought to run that through the Electoral Calculus predictor for lolz. LDs become official opposition:

    image
    Tories still ahead of SNP though
    Absolutely brilliant!
    Only you could find the silver lining for a prediction of 34 Tory seats.
    Now that did make me chuckle
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412

    Scott_xP said:

    There is no leadership challenge. Meanwhile, here is a completely unrelated briefing...

    @benrileysmith

    Sunak allies are noting Penny Mordaunt is at risk of losing her seat at the next election and warning a 'Jo Swinson' moment could follow if she became leader.

    Something's afoot. I wonder if a Mordaunt/Truss dream ticket is being planned.
    Whose dream? They should be seeking help.
    Mordaunt with Truss's policies - yes please, every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

    And I *love* that the best Sunak's allies can come up with is that Penny might lose her seat - once again highlighting what a useless leader he is.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest Conservative % with Rishi Sunak as PM.

    Westminster Voting Intention (17 March):

    Labour 47% (+5)
    Conservative 21% (-3)
    Reform UK 14% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-4)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 10 Mar

    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1769770749370200358?s=46

    So according to Redfield the Tories are heading for their lowest voteshare at a UK general election ever while Reform will get the highest voteshare for a party right of the Tories at a general election ever, even higher than the 12% UKIP got in 2015
    14% and still no MPs.
    Yes, hence Farage supports PR (unless Reform actually do overtake the Tories on voteshare, in which case they would almost certainly overtake the Tories on seats too under FPTP).

    Ironically under PR the Tories would remain main opposition on this poll, only under FPTP do the LDs become main opposition. When the right is split therefore PR benefits the Tories and Reform far more than it does Labour and even more than it does the LDs too.

    See the 2019 EU Parliament elections under PR when Reform came top with 29 MEPs and 30.5% and the Tories won 4 MEPs with 8.8% of the vote, whereas the Tories would not have elected a simple MEP or indeed won a single parliamentary seat on the same voteshare under FPTP
    The point is it's 14% with no Farage as yet. Renaming it 'Nigel Farage's Reform Party' is probably worth 3 more percentage points alone, and that's before he kicks into campaigning.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Truman said:

    I wonder what will happen if the powers that be manage to bankrupt Trump. Will his supporters rally round and get even more fired up or will they turn away.

    Already turning away.
    There is a suggestion that he has found some other appeal but, failing that, I think he has until the 25th to come up with the bond or Trump Tower is likely to be seized by the state of New York in partial payment of his fine. At which point the rest of the dominoes could fall very fast.
    The danger for Trump is that he ends up defaulting on a loan payment, in which case... phewy... it could all come tumbling very quickly indeed. Because - in all probability - there will be cross default clauses - default on anything, and all the loans get called at once.

    Now, my gut is that there is probably plenty of equity across the Trump group. But he probably needs to sell something big (and unencumbered) fast.
    Perhaps we will find out how much Mar-a-Lago is really worth?
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,998
    rcs1000 said: "Bear in mind that there will almost certainly be debt secured on Trump Tower. In the event that New York were to seize it, then the Trump Organization would likely have as little as 7 days to repay the debt to avoid a default.

    So I think it's fair to say that Trump will do everything he can to avoid that scenario."

    For example?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412
    moonshine said:

    Obama seeing Sunak, I can think of quite a few.

    Obama acting as a Silicon Valley headhunter,
    Call an election now please we can’t have both UK and US changing power to Russian special interests in the same month,
    Biden is reluctantly going to revoke Harry’s visa,
    Something to do with Ukraine / Russia, or Israel / Gaza,
    Disclosure related.

    Sunak probably fondly imagines this to be some sort of positive publicity coup.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,213

    We seem to have a new-style Russian troll - "play it very gently comrade so you don't get banned".

    But really what is the point? As soon as these trolls decide they need to put the party line across it becomes obvious what they are and nobody takes any notice. Then they get banned anyway.

    PB needs a pet.

    @JosiasJessop has all those spare hutches for raising COVID experts. Might as well use them.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    The judge should show no mercy and force the stain on humanity into bankruptcy. And the psycho can’t even appeal this judgement to the SC or another arselicking court .
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    eek said:

    Truman said:

    Scott_xP said:

    There is no leadership challenge. Meanwhile, here is a completely unrelated briefing...

    @benrileysmith

    Sunak allies are noting Penny Mordaunt is at risk of losing her seat at the next election and warning a 'Jo Swinson' moment could follow if she became leader.

    the tories look absolutely ridiculous now. Just go to the country.
    With so little actual political news around - Westminster journalists are making it up to have something to talk about
    Not sure that they are making up the opinion polls.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653

    Scott_xP said:

    There is no leadership challenge. Meanwhile, here is a completely unrelated briefing...

    @benrileysmith

    Sunak allies are noting Penny Mordaunt is at risk of losing her seat at the next election and warning a 'Jo Swinson' moment could follow if she became leader.

    Something's afoot. I wonder if a Mordaunt/Truss dream ticket is being planned.
    Whose dream? They should be seeking help.
    Mordaunt with Truss's policies - yes please, every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

    And I *love* that the best Sunak's allies can come up with is that Penny might lose her seat - once again highlighting what a useless leader he is.
    You and... just about nobody else.

    Although as it would precipitate a Tory wipeout, and I have no mortgage to worry about, I should selfishly be keen to see it play out.

    I just find I care about the country too much to do that.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    edited March 18
    Elon Musk or some other extreme right-wing multi-billionaire to bail Trump out?

    (Assuming no one's going to spend their last hlaf billion on Trump how many multi-billionaires are there who could do this?)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,889
    Heathener said:

    Those of you betting cautiously because of historic precedent might want to recall that these eye-watering Labour leads are in 1997 territory whilst the Conservative share of the vote is near 10% lower than 1997.

    Of course, Reform are just part of the tory problem (14% and 12% in these polls) but with Sunak in charge those votes are almost certainly lost to them. Apart from all else he betrayed The Blessed Boris. The Unforgivable Sin.

    You really think this won’t be a landslide …?

    Even Major only leaked 3% to the Referendum Party and UKIP in 1997, now Rishi is leaking 4 times that to Reform and even more than Cameron leaked rightwingers to UKIP in 2015
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653

    moonshine said:

    Obama seeing Sunak, I can think of quite a few.

    Obama acting as a Silicon Valley headhunter,
    Call an election now please we can’t have both UK and US changing power to Russian special interests in the same month,
    Biden is reluctantly going to revoke Harry’s visa,
    Something to do with Ukraine / Russia, or Israel / Gaza,
    Disclosure related.

    Sunak probably fondly imagines this to be some sort of positive publicity coup.
    Well it certainly plays better than coming out as a DJT supporter.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/02/23/liz-truss-donald-trump-joe-biden-us-election/#:~:text=Liz Truss said she would,the White House in November.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,401

    Elon Musk or some other extreme right-wing multi-billionaire to bail Trump out?

    (Assuming no one's going to spend their last hlaf billion on Trump how many multi-billionaires are there who could do this?)

    Funny how in 4 years Musk has gone from being a darling of the left to an extreme right winger.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    Those of you betting cautiously because of historic precedent might want to recall that these eye-watering Labour leads are in 1997 territory whilst the Conservative share of the vote is near 10% lower than 1997.

    Of course, Reform are just part of the tory problem (14% and 12% in these polls) but with Sunak in charge those votes are almost certainly lost to them. Apart from all else he betrayed The Blessed Boris. The Unforgivable Sin.

    You really think this won’t be a landslide …?

    Even Major only leaked 3% to the Referendum Party and UKIP in 1997, now Rishi is leaking 4 times that to Reform and even more than Cameron leaked rightwingers to UKIP in 2015
    Indeed.

    You all know my views on this election, which have been consistently held since the latter days of BJ’s calamitous premiership.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,321
    @Benpointer

    Whilst reviewing my entry for your esteemed competition just now, I noticed a typo. I see that I put in a Labour majority of 240. In fact I intended 420.

    May I be allowed to correct this ?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044

    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest Conservative % with Rishi Sunak as PM.

    Westminster Voting Intention (17 March):

    Labour 47% (+5)
    Conservative 21% (-3)
    Reform UK 14% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-4)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 10 Mar

    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1769770749370200358?s=46

    Why the big LDem fall? Was it because their spring conference was on?!?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,417
    HYUFD said:

    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest Conservative % with Rishi Sunak as PM.

    Westminster Voting Intention (17 March):

    Labour 47% (+5)
    Conservative 21% (-3)
    Reform UK 14% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-4)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 10 Mar

    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1769770749370200358?s=46

    I thought somebody ought to run that through the Electoral Calculus predictor for lolz. LDs become official opposition:

    image
    Tories still ahead of SNP though
    Finds a straw to clutch!
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,767

    HYUFD said:

    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest Conservative % with Rishi Sunak as PM.

    Westminster Voting Intention (17 March):

    Labour 47% (+5)
    Conservative 21% (-3)
    Reform UK 14% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-4)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 10 Mar

    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1769770749370200358?s=46

    So according to Redfield the Tories are heading for their lowest voteshare at a UK general election ever while Reform will get the highest voteshare for a party right of the Tories at a general election ever, even higher than the 12.6% UKIP got in 2015
    And no seats - what's the point
    If Farage's objective is to replace the Tories on the right, or to become their leader (which amounts to the same thing of course) then humiliating the Tories by denying them seats is the point.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058

    rcs1000 said: "Bear in mind that there will almost certainly be debt secured on Trump Tower. In the event that New York were to seize it, then the Trump Organization would likely have as little as 7 days to repay the debt to avoid a default.

    So I think it's fair to say that Trump will do everything he can to avoid that scenario."

    For example?

    Go down the docks and do favours for sailors?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549

    We seem to have a new-style Russian troll - "play it very gently comrade so you don't get banned".

    But really what is the point? As soon as these trolls decide they need to put the party line across it becomes obvious what they are and nobody takes any notice. Then they get banned anyway.

    PB needs a pet.

    @JosiasJessop has all those spare hutches for raising COVID experts. Might as well use them.
    There are two problems with keeping Russian trolls. Firstly, COVID experts are at least house trained; the Russian trolls make an almighty mess, and I can't find cleaners willing to deal with it. Secondly, there's this geezer in Russia who's giving them away for free, so there's simply no market for them.

    They also have a very short shelf life; they soon go all mangy and smelly. I think that's because they haven't kept up with their vaccines...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,128
    This is Numpty-Trumpty telling us he can't afford a few hundred millions dollars?

    The one who claims he is the "King of Debt"?

    The same one who maintains he is a top billionaire, and who has spent years stating that the valuation of Mar-a-Lago at the thick end of 2 billion dollars?

    He can just take out a small mortgage on *that*.

    Oh ... but banks won't lend to a man who has been practising fraud for many decades. Cry me a river.

    On a more important front, he's maintaining his violent rhetoric of the kind he used to cause the January 6th insurrection, and he has been in continual violation of his bail conditions for the criminal charges he faces.

    It is time to withdraw Numpty's privileges and put him in pre-trial detention where he belongs, wearing a colour co-ordinated orange suit and with a bucket for company.

    Perhaps *that* will undermine his delay-delay-delay strategy.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814
    Bar charts proving conclusively that Trump won the 2020 election :lol:


  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,098

    Elon Musk or some other extreme right-wing multi-billionaire to bail Trump out?

    (Assuming no one's going to spend their last hlaf billion on Trump how many multi-billionaires are there who could do this?)

    Funny how in 4 years Musk has gone from being a darling of the left to an extreme right winger.
    Well one way to piss off the left is to become very right wing.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814

    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest Conservative % with Rishi Sunak as PM.

    Westminster Voting Intention (17 March):

    Labour 47% (+5)
    Conservative 21% (-3)
    Reform UK 14% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-4)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 10 Mar

    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1769770749370200358?s=46

    Broken, sleazy, RACIST Tories on the slide!
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    I was a bit puzzled by the comparison on here yesterday between Keir Starmer and Mark Darcy.

    Surely that’s incredibly complimentary to SKS?

    I mean, we might want a naughty night with Daniel Cleaver (providing he wore protection - shudder) but Mark Darcy’s the one we would all want to marry.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,747

    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest Conservative % with Rishi Sunak as PM.

    Westminster Voting Intention (17 March):

    Labour 47% (+5)
    Conservative 21% (-3)
    Reform UK 14% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-4)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 10 Mar

    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1769770749370200358?s=46

    Why the big LDem fall? Was it because their spring conference was on?!?
    root (n a b)/(n a) gets larger as a decreases.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,620
    Heathener said:

    I was a bit puzzled by the comparison on here yesterday between Keir Starmer and Mark Darcy.

    Surely that’s incredibly complimentary to SKS?

    I mean, we might want a naughty night with Daniel Cleaver (providing he wore protection - shudder) but Mark Darcy’s the one we would all want to marry.

    Indeed, everybody wants to marry a lawyer.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,700
    Heathener said:

    I was a bit puzzled by the comparison on here yesterday between Keir Starmer and Mark Darcy.

    Surely that’s incredibly complimentary to SKS?

    I mean, we might want a naughty night with Daniel Cleaver (providing he wore protection - shudder) but Mark Darcy’s the one we would all want to marry.

    Darcy is supposedly based on Sir K!!!

    Although I gather the author denies it.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 18
    Boris’ midpoint higher than his both his successor’s best


    Conservative Vote Share Among 2019 Conservative Voters

    Boris Johnson:

    Highest: 93% (23 Mar, 2 Apr 2020)
    Lowest: 57% (5 Jun 2022)

    Liz Truss:

    Highest: 66% (18 Sept 2022)
    Lowest: 37% (16 Oct 2022)

    Rishi Sunak:

    Highest: 63% (16 Apr 2023)
    Lowest: 44% (11, 18 Feb 2024)
    Today: 46%


    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1769775827443405252?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,128

    Heathener said:

    I was a bit puzzled by the comparison on here yesterday between Keir Starmer and Mark Darcy.

    Surely that’s incredibly complimentary to SKS?

    I mean, we might want a naughty night with Daniel Cleaver (providing he wore protection - shudder) but Mark Darcy’s the one we would all want to marry.

    Darcy is supposedly based on Sir K!!!

    Although I gather the author denies it.

    Really - Crush on Daniel Cleaver?

    He's comes across to me as the same sort of prat as Hugh Grant.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129

    Elon Musk or some other extreme right-wing multi-billionaire to bail Trump out?

    (Assuming no one's going to spend their last hlaf billion on Trump how many multi-billionaires are there who could do this?)

    It's entirely possible that Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, etc., get together to help find $500m. But these guys aren't charities: they will want their pound of flesh. That is, they will want to make sure that if they bail Trump out, then they will be rewarded when Trump becomes President, and that they are making money on the deal.

    The thing is, though, this would almost certainly have to involve the actual sale of property.
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    MattW said:

    This is Numpty-Trumpty telling us he can't afford a few hundred millions dollars?

    The one who claims he is the "King of Debt"?

    The same one who maintains he is a top billionaire, and who has spent years stating that the valuation of Mar-a-Lago at the thick end of 2 billion dollars?

    He can just take out a small mortgage on *that*.

    Oh ... but banks won't lend to a man who has been practising fraud for many decades. Cry me a river.

    On a more important front, he's maintaining his violent rhetoric of the kind he used to cause the January 6th insurrection, and he has been in continual violation of his bail conditions for the criminal charges he faces.

    It is time to withdraw Numpty's privileges and put him in pre-trial detention where he belongs, wearing a colour co-ordinated orange suit and with a bucket for company.

    Perhaps *that* will undermine his delay-delay-delay strategy.

    For Trump I think its a race between the presidency and jail at this point. This is existential for him.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,401
    kinabalu said:

    Elon Musk or some other extreme right-wing multi-billionaire to bail Trump out?

    (Assuming no one's going to spend their last hlaf billion on Trump how many multi-billionaires are there who could do this?)

    Funny how in 4 years Musk has gone from being a darling of the left to an extreme right winger.
    Well one way to piss off the left is to become very right wing.
    So just how far to the right is he ?

    Abraham Lincoln ? Charlton Heston ? David Dukes ? Nancy Pelosi ?

    What's your guess ?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,354
    It's probably just a coincidence, but the two polls published today are monumentally awful for the Tories. Down 3% in a week with Redfield & Wilton, and down 4% in a week with Deltapoll, and Labour benefiting, +5 in one and +2 in the other. Not a swing involving Reform this time.

    It feels impossible that the Tories will change PM again, but how much longer can Sunak survive such terrible polling?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,758

    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest Conservative % with Rishi Sunak as PM.

    Westminster Voting Intention (17 March):

    Labour 47% (+5)
    Conservative 21% (-3)
    Reform UK 14% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-4)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 10 Mar

    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1769770749370200358?s=46

    Broken, sleazy, RACIST Tories on the slide!
    I can't really see the Tories as being that racist. Inevitably with a name like Conservatives they'll not be the best placed to adapt to change, and the UK has seen a very great deal of change in the last (you choose) years.

    Labour are much the same. The left has always been conservative in the UK - massively so, and probably more so than the Tories. Their recent anti-semitic weirdness is imported with the ideology of the communists.

    I don't think anyone is dreadfully racist in the UK full stop really - but more that we're often very slow to adapt to change. Unforgivably so perhaps.

  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279

    Elon Musk or some other extreme right-wing multi-billionaire to bail Trump out?

    (Assuming no one's going to spend their last hlaf billion on Trump how many multi-billionaires are there who could do this?)

    Never thought of that. Yes Musk certainly has the resources to bail Trump out with "conditions" of course. In some ways Musk is more right wing than Trump now.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,700

    It's probably just a coincidence, but the two polls published today are monumentally awful for the Tories. Down 3% in a week with Redfield & Wilton, and down 4% in a week with Deltapoll, and Labour benefiting, +5 in one and +2 in the other. Not a swing involving Reform this time.

    It feels impossible that the Tories will change PM again, but how much longer can Sunak survive such terrible polling?

    He was mad to rule out May. It is only going one way.

    Appallingly advised and hopeless at politics himself.
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    rcs1000 said:

    Truman said:

    More intelligent remarks from Laurence Fox.

    Biden is goading Trump and his supporters into violence.

    Last chance saloon for a fallen, corrupt and evil regime.

    They know he is finished, so they would rather take down America than let the people decide.

    How did the world become this unstable this fast?
    4:55 PM · Mar 18, 2024
    ·
    4,858
    Views
    https://x.com/LozzaFox/status/1769769545068151134?s=20

    Could you please point me to the previous intelligent remarks from Laurence Fox?
    As stated before I was being ironic.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,214
    This has to be the Diet Coke talking, doesn't it?

    — Sunak allies aware that May 2 locals are a huge flashpoint, but they hope Susan Hall can get the PM out of jail by defeating Sadiq Khan against the odds in London

    — that’d buy him time to get a Rwanda flight off and make it to autumn, supporters say…

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1769794955277431027
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,773
    kinabalu said:

    Trump collapsing financially over the next few months would be good. But let's not 'bank' on it. These crooked types often find a way to stave it off for a long time.

    In any case, the preferred scenario for those of us who aren't particularly sold on Trumpism would be that he is defeated at the ballot box. Harder (though far from impossible) to make the 'stolen election' narrative stick.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,889
    edited March 18

    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest Conservative % with Rishi Sunak as PM.

    Westminster Voting Intention (17 March):

    Labour 47% (+5)
    Conservative 21% (-3)
    Reform UK 14% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-4)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 10 Mar

    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1769770749370200358?s=46

    Broken, sleazy, RACIST Tories on the slide!
    Surely half the racist Tories have now gone to Reform? After all the Tories are the only one of the now 5 main UK parties listed in the Redfield poll with a non white leader
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,362
    Omnium said:

    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest Conservative % with Rishi Sunak as PM.

    Westminster Voting Intention (17 March):

    Labour 47% (+5)
    Conservative 21% (-3)
    Reform UK 14% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-4)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 10 Mar

    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1769770749370200358?s=46

    Broken, sleazy, RACIST Tories on the slide!
    I can't really see the Tories as being that racist. Inevitably with a name like Conservatives they'll not be the best placed to adapt to change, and the UK has seen a very great deal of change in the last (you choose) years.

    Labour are much the same. The left has always been conservative in the UK - massively so, and probably more so than the Tories. Their recent anti-semitic weirdness is imported with the ideology of the communists.

    I don't think anyone is dreadfully racist in the UK full stop really - but more that we're often very slow to adapt to change. Unforgivably so perhaps.

    I doubt the Tories are on a par with the EDL but being prepared to take cash again from Frank Hester is a little silly.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,773
    Omnium said:

    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest Conservative % with Rishi Sunak as PM.

    Westminster Voting Intention (17 March):

    Labour 47% (+5)
    Conservative 21% (-3)
    Reform UK 14% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-4)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 10 Mar

    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1769770749370200358?s=46

    Broken, sleazy, RACIST Tories on the slide!
    I can't really see the Tories as being that racist. Inevitably with a name like Conservatives they'll not be the best placed to adapt to change, and the UK has seen a very great deal of change in the last (you choose) years.

    Labour are much the same. The left has always been conservative in the UK - massively so, and probably more so than the Tories. Their recent anti-semitic weirdness is imported with the ideology of the communists.

    I don't think anyone is dreadfully racist in the UK full stop really - but more that we're often very slow to adapt to change. Unforgivably so perhaps.

    Agree, except that I'd also say we're not really any slower to adapt to change than anyone else in the world.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    rcs1000 said:

    Elon Musk or some other extreme right-wing multi-billionaire to bail Trump out?

    (Assuming no one's going to spend their last hlaf billion on Trump how many multi-billionaires are there who could do this?)

    It's entirely possible that Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, etc., get together to help find $500m. But these guys aren't charities: they will want their pound of flesh. That is, they will want to make sure that if they bail Trump out, then they will be rewarded when Trump becomes President, and that they are making money on the deal.

    The thing is, though, this would almost certainly have to involve the actual sale of property.
    Musk’s politics are misunderstood by most. He’s not right wing in the normal sense, he’s a Silicon Valley libertarian. And he has no love for trump. If he was using his money for politics, it would be to influence congressional elections or DAs.

    Thiel I can’t give a view on, who knows.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044

    Heathener said:

    I was a bit puzzled by the comparison on here yesterday between Keir Starmer and Mark Darcy.

    Surely that’s incredibly complimentary to SKS?

    I mean, we might want a naughty night with Daniel Cleaver (providing he wore protection - shudder) but Mark Darcy’s the one we would all want to marry.

    Darcy is supposedly based on Sir K!!!

    Although I gather the author denies it.

    What, Jane Austen?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Hmmm

    Can we get BBC Verify to confirm if this reporter is actually outside on a bridge in Islamabad? 🤔 5 seconds of footage on loop with a Truman Show-esque repeating reappearance of that bus. Makes the Kate Middleton photo look plausible @BBCNews

    https://x.com/martin689908/status/1769703734349611034?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Trump collapsing financially over the next few months would be good. But let's not 'bank' on it. These crooked types often find a way to stave it off for a long time.

    In any case, the preferred scenario for those of us who aren't particularly sold on Trumpism would be that he is defeated at the ballot box. Harder (though far from impossible) to make the 'stolen election' narrative stick.
    We can but hope he chokes on a cheese burger or accidentally falls out of a window . Trump is a stain on humanity , most of the world would book a Mariachi band to celebrate If he was no longer with us !
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Elon Musk or some other extreme right-wing multi-billionaire to bail Trump out?

    (Assuming no one's going to spend their last hlaf billion on Trump how many multi-billionaires are there who could do this?)

    It's entirely possible that Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, etc., get together to help find $500m. But these guys aren't charities: they will want their pound of flesh. That is, they will want to make sure that if they bail Trump out, then they will be rewarded when Trump becomes President, and that they are making money on the deal.

    The thing is, though, this would almost certainly have to involve the actual sale of property.
    Musk’s politics are misunderstood by most. He’s not right wing in the normal sense, he’s a Silicon Valley libertarian.
    (BBM)

    That's right wing.

    Leftwingers in the Bay Area go for the slogan "Fuck you and the startup you rode in on".

  • eekeek Posts: 28,366

    This has to be the Diet Coke talking, doesn't it?

    — Sunak allies aware that May 2 locals are a huge flashpoint, but they hope Susan Hall can get the PM out of jail by defeating Sadiq Khan against the odds in London

    — that’d buy him time to get a Rwanda flight off and make it to autumn, supporters say…

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1769794955277431027

    The only plausible explanation is that he’s drinking the original version of coke with actual cocaine in it.

    Because the question isn’t that Sadiq wont win it’s how big will his majority weigh
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,354

    It's probably just a coincidence, but the two polls published today are monumentally awful for the Tories. Down 3% in a week with Redfield & Wilton, and down 4% in a week with Deltapoll, and Labour benefiting, +5 in one and +2 in the other. Not a swing involving Reform this time.

    It feels impossible that the Tories will change PM again, but how much longer can Sunak survive such terrible polling?

    He was mad to rule out May. It is only going one way.

    Appallingly advised and hopeless at politics himself.
    I think Lee Anderson's defection made a May election impossible. It was perfectly timed.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027
    Heathener said:

    I was a bit puzzled by the comparison on here yesterday between Keir Starmer and Mark Darcy.

    Surely that’s incredibly complimentary to SKS?

    I mean, we might want a naughty night with Daniel Cleaver (providing he wore protection - shudder) but Mark Darcy’s the one we would all want to marry.

    Err not me !!!!!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129
    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Elon Musk or some other extreme right-wing multi-billionaire to bail Trump out?

    (Assuming no one's going to spend their last hlaf billion on Trump how many multi-billionaires are there who could do this?)

    It's entirely possible that Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, etc., get together to help find $500m. But these guys aren't charities: they will want their pound of flesh. That is, they will want to make sure that if they bail Trump out, then they will be rewarded when Trump becomes President, and that they are making money on the deal.

    The thing is, though, this would almost certainly have to involve the actual sale of property.
    Musk’s politics are misunderstood by most. He’s not right wing in the normal sense, he’s a Silicon Valley libertarian. And he has no love for trump. If he was using his money for politics, it would be to influence congressional elections or DAs.

    Thiel I can’t give a view on, who knows.
    I'm not sure you're quite right about Musk. Because he's starting to go down a rabbit hole regarding various conspiracy theories.

    Evidence:

    (1) Promotion of Pizzagate, like the "no smoke without fire" Tweet.
    (2) The Tweet about Jewish people hating White people.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,779
    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Elon Musk or some other extreme right-wing multi-billionaire to bail Trump out?

    (Assuming no one's going to spend their last hlaf billion on Trump how many multi-billionaires are there who could do this?)

    It's entirely possible that Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, etc., get together to help find $500m. But these guys aren't charities: they will want their pound of flesh. That is, they will want to make sure that if they bail Trump out, then they will be rewarded when Trump becomes President, and that they are making money on the deal.

    The thing is, though, this would almost certainly have to involve the actual sale of property.
    Musk’s politics are misunderstood by most. He’s not right wing in the normal sense, he’s a Silicon Valley libertarian. And he has no love for trump. If he was using his money for politics, it would be to influence congressional elections or DAs.

    Thiel I can’t give a view on, who knows.
    'Silicon Valley libertarian' is a long way of writing 'confused'.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044
    eek said:

    This has to be the Diet Coke talking, doesn't it?

    — Sunak allies aware that May 2 locals are a huge flashpoint, but they hope Susan Hall can get the PM out of jail by defeating Sadiq Khan against the odds in London

    — that’d buy him time to get a Rwanda flight off and make it to autumn, supporters say…

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1769794955277431027

    The only plausible explanation is that he’s drinking the original version of coke with actual cocaine in it.

    Because the question isn’t that Sadiq wont win it’s how big will his majority weigh
    What will be the best Tory result of the night? Houchen and Street both getting re-elected? Could there be a PCC election sufficiently whacky that there’s a Con gain?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,930

    Bar charts proving conclusively that Trump won the 2020 election :lol:


    I didn’t realise that Trump was a Lib Dem!
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited March 18

    It's probably just a coincidence, but the two polls published today are monumentally awful for the Tories. Down 3% in a week with Redfield & Wilton, and down 4% in a week with Deltapoll, and Labour benefiting, +5 in one and +2 in the other. Not a swing involving Reform this time.

    It feels impossible that the Tories will change PM again, but how much longer can Sunak survive such terrible polling?

    He was mad to rule out May. It is only going one way.

    Appallingly advised and hopeless at politics himself.
    The guy's total crap at everything. [1] The way he keeps saying "actually" makes him look an arrogant prick who's not listening to what the other person is saying, because he considers them to be beneath him. Which is what he is.

    The question for Tory MPs is how many more seats will the party win if they ditch Sunak. The betting market probably has it right at the moment and the person most likely to replace him is Mordaunt.[2] It could be an interesting week.

    Half the poll deficit disappears as soon as he's replaced.

    There could still be a general election on 2 May. If there isn't, and Sunak's still there, he and his party are going to get their arses kicked all over the place in the locals. Especially in London. Great for Reform UK.

    1) Why did he leave Goldmans?

    2) Why can't she speak for herself, attributably, to "scotch the rumours" in journospeak?
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Elon Musk or some other extreme right-wing multi-billionaire to bail Trump out?

    (Assuming no one's going to spend their last hlaf billion on Trump how many multi-billionaires are there who could do this?)

    It's entirely possible that Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, etc., get together to help find $500m. But these guys aren't charities: they will want their pound of flesh. That is, they will want to make sure that if they bail Trump out, then they will be rewarded when Trump becomes President, and that they are making money on the deal.

    The thing is, though, this would almost certainly have to involve the actual sale of property.
    Musk’s politics are misunderstood by most. He’s not right wing in the normal sense, he’s a Silicon Valley libertarian. And he has no love for trump. If he was using his money for politics, it would be to influence congressional elections or DAs.

    Thiel I can’t give a view on, who knows.
    I'm not sure you're quite right about Musk. Because he's starting to go down a rabbit hole regarding various conspiracy theories.

    Evidence:

    (1) Promotion of Pizzagate, like the "no smoke without fire" Tweet.
    (2) The Tweet about Jewish people hating White people.
    And the one about the jews pushing mass immigration into the west.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,603
    Has the conclave to elect a new PM had a secret meeting on a plane?

    https://x.com/aviationbrk/status/1769368900909629625
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044

    eek said:

    This has to be the Diet Coke talking, doesn't it?

    — Sunak allies aware that May 2 locals are a huge flashpoint, but they hope Susan Hall can get the PM out of jail by defeating Sadiq Khan against the odds in London

    — that’d buy him time to get a Rwanda flight off and make it to autumn, supporters say…

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1769794955277431027

    The only plausible explanation is that he’s drinking the original version of coke with actual cocaine in it.

    Because the question isn’t that Sadiq wont win it’s how big will his majority weigh
    What will be the best Tory result of the night? Houchen and Street both getting re-elected? Could there be a PCC election sufficiently whacky that there’s a Con gain?
    Come February 2025, could Andy Street be the highest-ranking Conservative politician in the country? And would that matter?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,366

    It's probably just a coincidence, but the two polls published today are monumentally awful for the Tories. Down 3% in a week with Redfield & Wilton, and down 4% in a week with Deltapoll, and Labour benefiting, +5 in one and +2 in the other. Not a swing involving Reform this time.

    It feels impossible that the Tories will change PM again, but how much longer can Sunak survive such terrible polling?

    He was mad to rule out May. It is only going one way.

    Appallingly advised and hopeless at politics himself.
    I think Lee Anderson's defection made a May election impossible. It was perfectly timed.
    And without a May election there will be boat arrival after boat arrival on the South Coast that Farage/Anderson can highlight to score points...
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,362

    eek said:

    This has to be the Diet Coke talking, doesn't it?

    — Sunak allies aware that May 2 locals are a huge flashpoint, but they hope Susan Hall can get the PM out of jail by defeating Sadiq Khan against the odds in London

    — that’d buy him time to get a Rwanda flight off and make it to autumn, supporters say…

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1769794955277431027

    The only plausible explanation is that he’s drinking the original version of coke with actual cocaine in it.

    Because the question isn’t that Sadiq wont win it’s how big will his majority weigh
    What will be the best Tory result of the night? Houchen and Street both getting re-elected? Could there be a PCC election sufficiently whacky that there’s a Con gain?
    Houchen won’t win. He will lose quite badly.

    Labour appear to have gone for a far better candidate than the clown they had last time which helps.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129
    Truman said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Elon Musk or some other extreme right-wing multi-billionaire to bail Trump out?

    (Assuming no one's going to spend their last hlaf billion on Trump how many multi-billionaires are there who could do this?)

    It's entirely possible that Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, etc., get together to help find $500m. But these guys aren't charities: they will want their pound of flesh. That is, they will want to make sure that if they bail Trump out, then they will be rewarded when Trump becomes President, and that they are making money on the deal.

    The thing is, though, this would almost certainly have to involve the actual sale of property.
    Musk’s politics are misunderstood by most. He’s not right wing in the normal sense, he’s a Silicon Valley libertarian. And he has no love for trump. If he was using his money for politics, it would be to influence congressional elections or DAs.

    Thiel I can’t give a view on, who knows.
    I'm not sure you're quite right about Musk. Because he's starting to go down a rabbit hole regarding various conspiracy theories.

    Evidence:

    (1) Promotion of Pizzagate, like the "no smoke without fire" Tweet.
    (2) The Tweet about Jewish people hating White people.
    And the one about the jews pushing mass immigration into the west.
    Which also makes no sense... why would Jews want to import lots of Muslims?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,837
    I don't know about the rest of the country, but here in Hertfordshire today it's been the nicest day for an absolute age. Not cold, dark and miserable, not blowing a gale and not pissing with rain either. The big yellow glowy thing in the sky has even put in the occasional appearance. It's not exactly subtropical, but at least it feels like we might finally have seen the back of this seemingly endless, grotty Winter with it's ceaseless conveyor belt of storms. Thank goodness.

    Today's dysfunctional economy news: record numbers of people in financial difficulty, and house prices resuming their relentless upward trajectory (with the largest monthly increase in almost a year.) One somehow doubts that the two issues are entirely unrelated. But what can you do, eh?

    On topic, it would be helpful if Trump's financial difficulties would do for his electoral prospects, but I'm not at all sure that the world will be that lucky.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,603
    rcs1000 said:

    Truman said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Elon Musk or some other extreme right-wing multi-billionaire to bail Trump out?

    (Assuming no one's going to spend their last hlaf billion on Trump how many multi-billionaires are there who could do this?)

    It's entirely possible that Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, etc., get together to help find $500m. But these guys aren't charities: they will want their pound of flesh. That is, they will want to make sure that if they bail Trump out, then they will be rewarded when Trump becomes President, and that they are making money on the deal.

    The thing is, though, this would almost certainly have to involve the actual sale of property.
    Musk’s politics are misunderstood by most. He’s not right wing in the normal sense, he’s a Silicon Valley libertarian. And he has no love for trump. If he was using his money for politics, it would be to influence congressional elections or DAs.

    Thiel I can’t give a view on, who knows.
    I'm not sure you're quite right about Musk. Because he's starting to go down a rabbit hole regarding various conspiracy theories.

    Evidence:

    (1) Promotion of Pizzagate, like the "no smoke without fire" Tweet.
    (2) The Tweet about Jewish people hating White people.
    And the one about the jews pushing mass immigration into the west.
    Which also makes no sense... why would Jews want to import lots of Muslims?
    You think they ought to be islamophobic?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068
    edited March 18
    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Elon Musk or some other extreme right-wing multi-billionaire to bail Trump out?

    (Assuming no one's going to spend their last hlaf billion on Trump how many multi-billionaires are there who could do this?)

    It's entirely possible that Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, etc., get together to help find $500m. But these guys aren't charities: they will want their pound of flesh. That is, they will want to make sure that if they bail Trump out, then they will be rewarded when Trump becomes President, and that they are making money on the deal.

    The thing is, though, this would almost certainly have to involve the actual sale of property.
    Musk’s politics are misunderstood by most. He’s not right wing in the normal sense, he’s a Silicon Valley libertarian. And he has no love for trump. If he was using his money for politics, it would be to influence congressional elections or DAs.

    Thiel I can’t give a view on, who knows.
    I'm not sure you're quite right about Musk. Because he's starting to go down a rabbit hole regarding various conspiracy theories.

    Evidence:

    (1) Promotion of Pizzagate, like the "no smoke without fire" Tweet.
    (2) The Tweet about Jewish people hating White people.
    "starting to"? He's down the rabbit hole and has extended it into a wide ranging multistory complex with multiple rooms, a swimming pool, a fountain and its own oxygen supply.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 480
    I wonder when Sunak stops up and thinks to himself: "this isn't worth it" and just calls a ge. The tax on his dignity and future reputation must be coming into play before long.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    Taz said:

    eek said:

    This has to be the Diet Coke talking, doesn't it?

    — Sunak allies aware that May 2 locals are a huge flashpoint, but they hope Susan Hall can get the PM out of jail by defeating Sadiq Khan against the odds in London

    — that’d buy him time to get a Rwanda flight off and make it to autumn, supporters say…

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1769794955277431027

    The only plausible explanation is that he’s drinking the original version of coke with actual cocaine in it.

    Because the question isn’t that Sadiq wont win it’s how big will his majority weigh
    What will be the best Tory result of the night? Houchen and Street both getting re-elected? Could there be a PCC election sufficiently whacky that there’s a Con gain?
    Houchen won’t win. He will lose quite badly.

    Labour appear to have gone for a far better candidate than the clown they had last time which helps.
    Yes, and Houchen losing while Street wins is very bad optics for the government. Houchen represents the Tory realignment after Brexit, the Red Wall, levelling up. Street reminds people what Tories used to be like before the realignment.
  • Jesus that Redfield is just awful for the Tories
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,865
    rcs1000 said:

    Elon Musk or some other extreme right-wing multi-billionaire to bail Trump out?

    (Assuming no one's going to spend their last hlaf billion on Trump how many multi-billionaires are there who could do this?)

    It's entirely possible that Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, etc., get together to help find $500m. But these guys aren't charities: they will want their pound of flesh. That is, they will want to make sure that if they bail Trump out, then they will be rewarded when Trump becomes President, and that they are making money on the deal.

    The thing is, though, this would almost certainly have to involve the actual sale of property.
    Casino billionaire Sheldon Adelson is now dead but had previously given Trump around $200 million for his last two campaigns. Trump gave Adelson's widow the Presidential Medal of Freedom, America's highest civil award (along with Elvis Presley). That's who I'd be looking to tap up.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    This has to be the Diet Coke talking, doesn't it?

    — Sunak allies aware that May 2 locals are a huge flashpoint, but they hope Susan Hall can get the PM out of jail by defeating Sadiq Khan against the odds in London

    — that’d buy him time to get a Rwanda flight off and make it to autumn, supporters say…

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1769794955277431027

    The only plausible explanation is that he’s drinking the original version of coke with actual cocaine in it.

    Because the question isn’t that Sadiq wont win it’s how big will his majority weigh
    What will be the best Tory result of the night? Houchen and Street both getting re-elected? Could there be a PCC election sufficiently whacky that there’s a Con gain?
    Houchen won’t win. He will lose quite badly.

    Labour appear to have gone for a far better candidate than the clown they had last time which helps.
    Yes, and Houchen losing while Street wins is very bad optics for the government. Houchen represents the Tory realignment after Brexit, the Red Wall, levelling up. Street reminds people what Tories used to be like before the realignment.
    Is there any evidence that Street wins?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494
    edited March 18

    It's probably just a coincidence, but the two polls published today are monumentally awful for the Tories. Down 3% in a week with Redfield & Wilton, and down 4% in a week with Deltapoll, and Labour benefiting, +5 in one and +2 in the other. Not a swing involving Reform this time.

    It feels impossible that the Tories will change PM again, but how much longer can Sunak survive such terrible polling?

    He was mad to rule out May. It is only going one way.

    Appallingly advised and hopeless at politics himself.
    I think Lee Anderson's defection made a May election impossible. It was perfectly timed.
    My take is different.

    1. 2nd May versus hang on something will turn up. What’s turning up in time for an autumn election campaign is, in no particular order of vote suppressing seriousness, higher mortgages, a covid report, record splurge boat crossings, a squatting narrative gripping the electorate for someone with no emotional intelligence who can’t relate. Add to that a further vote losing swingback suppression from actually putting Rwanda flights in the air.

    May 2nd argument was, when picking a date, you actually know what’s coming and dodge it for a better result, it’s not about keeping fingers crossed.

    2. Secondly, are you all utterly deluded the lot of you? Two polls today put Tories+Ref on 35%. What makes you so sure Tories are 20+ points behind and the General Election they won’t finish just 6 or 7 behind Labour, for a result so good for Tories it is actually far better than anything they deserve?

    Polls are in your face, talking to you, saying 35%, are you listening? A deal like last time, or forced nature of GE plops the Ref onto Tory, how you so sure they don’t get to end up in mid 30’s just 6 points behind?

    My argument for May 2nd was ability to move the polls more in April campaign, and dodge all the trouble.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    edited March 18

    I wonder when Sunak stops up and thinks to himself: "this isn't worth it" and just calls a ge. The tax on his dignity and future reputation must be coming into play before long.

    If Sunak had any dignity he wouldn’t be a spineless gimp who bent over and let himself get banged mercilessly by the UKs version of the stain on humanity wearing a strap on !
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,700
    These people are on drugs. That's the only possible explanation...

    Alex Wickham
    @alexwickham

    — Sunak allies aware that May 2 locals are a huge flashpoint, but they hope Susan Hall can get the PM out of jail by defeating Sadiq Khan against the odds in London

    — that’d buy him time to get a Rwanda flight off and make it to autumn, supporters say…
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399

    rcs1000 said:

    Elon Musk or some other extreme right-wing multi-billionaire to bail Trump out?

    (Assuming no one's going to spend their last hlaf billion on Trump how many multi-billionaires are there who could do this?)

    It's entirely possible that Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, etc., get together to help find $500m. But these guys aren't charities: they will want their pound of flesh. That is, they will want to make sure that if they bail Trump out, then they will be rewarded when Trump becomes President, and that they are making money on the deal.

    The thing is, though, this would almost certainly have to involve the actual sale of property.
    Casino billionaire Sheldon Adelson is now dead but had previously given Trump around $200 million for his last two campaigns. Trump gave Adelson's widow the Presidential Medal of Freedom, America's highest civil award (along with Elvis Presley). That's who I'd be looking to tap up.
    Why did Elvis co-present it?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044
    Donkeys said:

    It's probably just a coincidence, but the two polls published today are monumentally awful for the Tories. Down 3% in a week with Redfield & Wilton, and down 4% in a week with Deltapoll, and Labour benefiting, +5 in one and +2 in the other. Not a swing involving Reform this time.

    It feels impossible that the Tories will change PM again, but how much longer can Sunak survive such terrible polling?

    He was mad to rule out May. It is only going one way.

    Appallingly advised and hopeless at politics himself.
    The guy's total crap at everything. [1] The way he keeps saying "actually" makes him look an arrogant prick who's not listening to what the other person is saying, because he considers them to be beneath him. Which is what he is.

    The question for Tory MPs is how many more seats will the party win if they ditch Sunak. The betting market probably has it right at the moment and the person most likely to replace him is Mordaunt.[2] It could be an interesting week.

    Half the poll deficit disappears as soon as he's replaced.

    There could still be a general election on 2 May. If there isn't, and Sunak's still there, he and his party are going to get their arses kicked all over the place in the locals. Especially in London. Great for Reform UK.

    1) Why did he leave Goldmans?

    2) Why can't she speak for herself, attributably, to "scotch the rumours" in journospeak?
    Sunak is crap, but the Tory polling reflects a succession of crap PMs and governance, not just Sunak. I don’t think “Half the poll deficit disappears as soon as he’s replaced.”

    Replacing Sunak doesn’t show that the Conservative Party is competent and ruthless: it shows them as desperate, and desperate isn’t attractive to the voters.

    I think if Sunak goes, the Tory polling will initially sink further. If they’re lucky, if the process of picking a new leader isn’t too painful and they manage to find someone with some nouse, neither of which seems that likely judging by recent history, then maybe the Tory polling would improve.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,603

    It's probably just a coincidence, but the two polls published today are monumentally awful for the Tories. Down 3% in a week with Redfield & Wilton, and down 4% in a week with Deltapoll, and Labour benefiting, +5 in one and +2 in the other. Not a swing involving Reform this time.

    It feels impossible that the Tories will change PM again, but how much longer can Sunak survive such terrible polling?

    He was mad to rule out May. It is only going one way.

    Appallingly advised and hopeless at politics himself.
    I think Lee Anderson's defection made a May election impossible. It was perfectly timed.
    My take is different.

    1. 2nd May versus hang on something will turn up. What’s turning up in time for an autumn election campaign is, in no particular order of vote suppressing seriousness, higher mortgages, a covid report, record splurge boat crossings, a squatting narrative gripping the electorate for someone with no emotional intelligence who can’t relate. Add to that a further vote losing swingback suppression from actually putting Rwanda flights in the air.

    May 2nd argument was, when picking a date, you actually know what’s coming, it’s not about keeping fingers crossed.

    2. Secondly, are you all utterly deluded the lot of you? Two polls today put Tories+Ref on 35%. What makes you so sure Tories are 20+ points behind and the General Election they won’t finish just 6 or 7 behind Labour, for a result so good for Tories it is actually far better than they deserve? Polls are in your face, talking to you, saying 35%, are you listening, wether it’s a deal like last time, or forced nature of GE plops the Ref onto Tory, how you so sure they don’t get to end up just 6 points behind?
    On 2, the difference between now and 2019 is that there is no Boris Johnson to consolidate the Conservative + Brexit Party/Reform vote and a lot of 2019 Conservatives actively want to give them a kicking from the right.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,366
    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    This has to be the Diet Coke talking, doesn't it?

    — Sunak allies aware that May 2 locals are a huge flashpoint, but they hope Susan Hall can get the PM out of jail by defeating Sadiq Khan against the odds in London

    — that’d buy him time to get a Rwanda flight off and make it to autumn, supporters say…

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1769794955277431027

    The only plausible explanation is that he’s drinking the original version of coke with actual cocaine in it.

    Because the question isn’t that Sadiq wont win it’s how big will his majority weigh
    What will be the best Tory result of the night? Houchen and Street both getting re-elected? Could there be a PCC election sufficiently whacky that there’s a Con gain?
    Houchen won’t win. He will lose quite badly.

    Labour appear to have gone for a far better candidate than the clown they had last time which helps.
    Yes, and Houchen losing while Street wins is very bad optics for the government. Houchen represents the Tory realignment after Brexit, the Red Wall, levelling up. Street reminds people what Tories used to be like before the realignment.
    Houchen will lose because of the crooked deals over at TeesWorks - it's the North East's version of the PPE deals with business men pulling tricks over someone not bright enough to see what is going on..
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited March 18

    Elon Musk or some other extreme right-wing multi-billionaire to bail Trump out?

    (Assuming no one's going to spend their last hlaf billion on Trump how many multi-billionaires are there who could do this?)

    Funny how in 4 years Musk has gone from being a darling of the left to an extreme right winger.
    The interesting thing to me is Musk's enthusiasm for trashing his own brand. He had carefully nurtured the idea of solving big world problems - climate change, space exploration - with skillful execution of challenging technical solutions. But he threw all that away with conspiracy theories and fascist ideology. You might say he's rich enough he doesn't need to care about a brand, but previously he did.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,366

    I wonder when Sunak stops up and thinks to himself: "this isn't worth it" and just calls a ge. The tax on his dignity and future reputation must be coming into play before long.

    With a May election scrapped last week I suspect Rishi is going to be aiming for 2 years so he has that figure to fall back on...
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044
    Taz said:

    eek said:

    This has to be the Diet Coke talking, doesn't it?

    — Sunak allies aware that May 2 locals are a huge flashpoint, but they hope Susan Hall can get the PM out of jail by defeating Sadiq Khan against the odds in London

    — that’d buy him time to get a Rwanda flight off and make it to autumn, supporters say…

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1769794955277431027

    The only plausible explanation is that he’s drinking the original version of coke with actual cocaine in it.

    Because the question isn’t that Sadiq wont win it’s how big will his majority weigh
    What will be the best Tory result of the night? Houchen and Street both getting re-elected? Could there be a PCC election sufficiently whacky that there’s a Con gain?
    Houchen won’t win. He will lose quite badly.

    Labour appear to have gone for a far better candidate than the clown they had last time which helps.
    Does Street have any chance? His 9% majority doesn’t look very safe, but I understand he’s quite popular locally.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    MattW said:

    Heathener said:

    I was a bit puzzled by the comparison on here yesterday between Keir Starmer and Mark Darcy.

    Surely that’s incredibly complimentary to SKS?

    I mean, we might want a naughty night with Daniel Cleaver (providing he wore protection - shudder) but Mark Darcy’s the one we would all want to marry.

    Darcy is supposedly based on Sir K!!!

    Although I gather the author denies it.

    Really - Crush on Daniel Cleaver?

    He's comes across to me as the same sort of prat as Hugh Grant.
    There was a nice neatness to the Bridget Jones analogue when Boris was there in the Daniel Cleaver role. It summed up the two personalities perfectly.

    It’s perhaps what made sone of those latter PMQs so dramatic. After all the Cleaver/Darcy (Wickham/Darcy) dynamic, of the exciting cad who eventually comes a cropper vs the stilted but kind hero, is an age-old literary trope.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 480

    Donkeys said:

    It's probably just a coincidence, but the two polls published today are monumentally awful for the Tories. Down 3% in a week with Redfield & Wilton, and down 4% in a week with Deltapoll, and Labour benefiting, +5 in one and +2 in the other. Not a swing involving Reform this time.

    It feels impossible that the Tories will change PM again, but how much longer can Sunak survive such terrible polling?

    He was mad to rule out May. It is only going one way.

    Appallingly advised and hopeless at politics himself.
    The guy's total crap at everything. [1] The way he keeps saying "actually" makes him look an arrogant prick who's not listening to what the other person is saying, because he considers them to be beneath him. Which is what he is.

    The question for Tory MPs is how many more seats will the party win if they ditch Sunak. The betting market probably has it right at the moment and the person most likely to replace him is Mordaunt.[2] It could be an interesting week.

    Half the poll deficit disappears as soon as he's replaced.

    There could still be a general election on 2 May. If there isn't, and Sunak's still there, he and his party are going to get their arses kicked all over the place in the locals. Especially in London. Great for Reform UK.

    1) Why did he leave Goldmans?

    2) Why can't she speak for herself, attributably, to "scotch the rumours" in journospeak?
    Sunak is crap, but the Tory polling reflects a succession of crap PMs and governance, not just Sunak. I don’t think “Half the poll deficit disappears as soon as he’s replaced.”

    Replacing Sunak doesn’t show that the Conservative Party is competent and ruthless: it shows them as desperate, and desperate isn’t attractive to the voters.

    I think if Sunak goes, the Tory polling will initially sink further. If they’re lucky, if the process of picking a new leader isn’t too painful and they manage to find someone with some nouse, neither of which seems that likely judging by recent history, then maybe the Tory polling would improve.
    The poll deficit will not shrink. Quite the contrary it will widen. It will hammer home that you have no clue what the tories stand for and it could change next week again. Are they big state centrists, libertarians, blood and soil ethnonationalists? Nobody knows. It makes them even riskier to vote for.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    FF43 said:

    Elon Musk or some other extreme right-wing multi-billionaire to bail Trump out?

    (Assuming no one's going to spend their last hlaf billion on Trump how many multi-billionaires are there who could do this?)

    Funny how in 4 years Musk has gone from being a darling of the left to an extreme right winger.
    The interesting thing to me is Musk's enthusiasm for thrashing his own brand. He had carefully nurtured the idea of solving big world problems - climate change, space exploration - with skillful execution of challenging technical solutions. But threw all that away with conspiracy theories and fascist ideology. You might say he's rich enough he doesn't need to care about a brand, but previously he did.
    Anyone who enables Trump is vermin . That also includes the right wingers in the UK who fawn over him.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814
    HYUFD said:

    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest Conservative % with Rishi Sunak as PM.

    Westminster Voting Intention (17 March):

    Labour 47% (+5)
    Conservative 21% (-3)
    Reform UK 14% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-4)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 10 Mar

    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1769770749370200358?s=46

    Broken, sleazy, RACIST Tories on the slide!
    Surely half the racist Tories have now gone to Reform? After all the Tories are the only one of the now 5 main UK parties listed in the Redfield poll with a non white leader
    Frank Hester's donations?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044
    rcs1000 said:

    Truman said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Elon Musk or some other extreme right-wing multi-billionaire to bail Trump out?

    (Assuming no one's going to spend their last hlaf billion on Trump how many multi-billionaires are there who could do this?)

    It's entirely possible that Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, etc., get together to help find $500m. But these guys aren't charities: they will want their pound of flesh. That is, they will want to make sure that if they bail Trump out, then they will be rewarded when Trump becomes President, and that they are making money on the deal.

    The thing is, though, this would almost certainly have to involve the actual sale of property.
    Musk’s politics are misunderstood by most. He’s not right wing in the normal sense, he’s a Silicon Valley libertarian. And he has no love for trump. If he was using his money for politics, it would be to influence congressional elections or DAs.

    Thiel I can’t give a view on, who knows.
    I'm not sure you're quite right about Musk. Because he's starting to go down a rabbit hole regarding various conspiracy theories.

    Evidence:

    (1) Promotion of Pizzagate, like the "no smoke without fire" Tweet.
    (2) The Tweet about Jewish people hating White people.
    And the one about the jews pushing mass immigration into the west.
    Which also makes no sense... why would Jews want to import lots of Muslims?
    Because Islam is a fake religion invented by Jews for their own nefarious purposes, or so claimed someone in front of me in the queue for the farmers’ market one Saturday during the pandemic in Camden.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    .
    Foxy said:

    I suspect Bidens shoes are more for a foot problem than stability. Arthritis of ankle or toes, or perhaps even bone spurs.

    Or tendonitis, os similar.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Elon Musk or some other extreme right-wing multi-billionaire to bail Trump out?

    (Assuming no one's going to spend their last hlaf billion on Trump how many multi-billionaires are there who could do this?)

    It's entirely possible that Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, etc., get together to help find $500m. But these guys aren't charities: they will want their pound of flesh. That is, they will want to make sure that if they bail Trump out, then they will be rewarded when Trump becomes President, and that they are making money on the deal.

    The thing is, though, this would almost certainly have to involve the actual sale of property.
    Musk’s politics are misunderstood by most. He’s not right wing in the normal sense, he’s a Silicon Valley libertarian. And he has no love for trump. If he was using his money for politics, it would be to influence congressional elections or DAs.

    Thiel I can’t give a view on, who knows.
    I'm not sure you're quite right about Musk. Because he's starting to go down a rabbit hole regarding various conspiracy theories.

    Evidence:

    (1) Promotion of Pizzagate, like the "no smoke without fire" Tweet.
    (2) The Tweet about Jewish people hating White people.
    Maybe. He also uses Twitter in lieu of his inner voice so out of tens of thousands of utterances, there are some weird ones. No doubt not helped by an “interesting” psychological profile that is reportedly being medicated with ketamine. Not to mention an offbeat sense of humour that sometimes strays into irony so thickly disguised he’s the only one who can perceive it.

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,758

    I wonder when Sunak stops up and thinks to himself: "this isn't worth it" and just calls a ge. The tax on his dignity and future reputation must be coming into play before long.

    Well I think the answer is easy enough. He'll be shattered that he couldn't just turn up and be PM, and everything went swimmingly because he's not Boris/Truss- no doubt he was expecting this. Unfortunately he's now looking like a runner in the most crap PMs of all time race, along with those two, the Earl of Jute, and Brown. Somehow he'll be hoping to lift himself out of such ghastly company.

    His only remaining hope is that a degree of festive cheer in December prevents him looking as daft as a more sober analysis would.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Foxy said:

    I suspect Bidens shoes are more for a foot problem than stability. Arthritis of ankle or toes, or perhaps even bone spurs.

    Or tendonitis, os similar.
    Or fashion statement.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814

    rcs1000 said:

    Truman said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Elon Musk or some other extreme right-wing multi-billionaire to bail Trump out?

    (Assuming no one's going to spend their last hlaf billion on Trump how many multi-billionaires are there who could do this?)

    It's entirely possible that Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, etc., get together to help find $500m. But these guys aren't charities: they will want their pound of flesh. That is, they will want to make sure that if they bail Trump out, then they will be rewarded when Trump becomes President, and that they are making money on the deal.

    The thing is, though, this would almost certainly have to involve the actual sale of property.
    Musk’s politics are misunderstood by most. He’s not right wing in the normal sense, he’s a Silicon Valley libertarian. And he has no love for trump. If he was using his money for politics, it would be to influence congressional elections or DAs.

    Thiel I can’t give a view on, who knows.
    I'm not sure you're quite right about Musk. Because he's starting to go down a rabbit hole regarding various conspiracy theories.

    Evidence:

    (1) Promotion of Pizzagate, like the "no smoke without fire" Tweet.
    (2) The Tweet about Jewish people hating White people.
    And the one about the jews pushing mass immigration into the west.
    Which also makes no sense... why would Jews want to import lots of Muslims?
    Because Islam is a fake religion invented by Jews for their own nefarious purposes, or so claimed someone in front of me in the queue for the farmers’ market one Saturday during the pandemic in Camden.

    Belief in one god?
    Ritual circumcision?
    Ritual animal slaughter?
    Reading from right to left?

    :lol:
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    This has to be the Diet Coke talking, doesn't it?

    — Sunak allies aware that May 2 locals are a huge flashpoint, but they hope Susan Hall can get the PM out of jail by defeating Sadiq Khan against the odds in London

    — that’d buy him time to get a Rwanda flight off and make it to autumn, supporters say…

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1769794955277431027

    The only plausible explanation is that he’s drinking the original version of coke with actual cocaine in it.

    Because the question isn’t that Sadiq wont win it’s how big will his majority weigh
    What will be the best Tory result of the night? Houchen and Street both getting re-elected? Could there be a PCC election sufficiently whacky that there’s a Con gain?
    Houchen won’t win. He will lose quite badly.

    Labour appear to have gone for a far better candidate than the clown they had last time which helps.
    Does Street have any chance? His 9% majority doesn’t look very safe, but I understand he’s quite popular locally.
    I think the West Midlands has had some of the smallest swings in regional polling, and Street does seem to be viewed as himself rather than the Tory. So if I were putting a small amount on a surprise in the mayorals I think that’s where I’d go.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    dixiedean said:

    One consolation of the Tories going down to 34 seats would be that it would only require 6 letters for a leadership challenge.
    Thus guaranteeing almost perpetual entertainment and hilarity for the rest of us.

    You seemed to have typed 'consolation' when surely you meant 'additional benefit'.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    nico679 said:

    FF43 said:

    Elon Musk or some other extreme right-wing multi-billionaire to bail Trump out?

    (Assuming no one's going to spend their last hlaf billion on Trump how many multi-billionaires are there who could do this?)

    Funny how in 4 years Musk has gone from being a darling of the left to an extreme right winger.
    The interesting thing to me is Musk's enthusiasm for thrashing his own brand. He had carefully nurtured the idea of solving big world problems - climate change, space exploration - with skillful execution of challenging technical solutions. But threw all that away with conspiracy theories and fascist ideology. You might say he's rich enough he doesn't need to care about a brand, but previously he did.
    Anyone who enables Trump is vermin . That also includes the right wingers in the UK who fawn over him.
    Hmmm… people have referred to others as vermin for their political beliefs before. It’s not exulted company to be keeping.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,239
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Truman said:

    I wonder what will happen if the powers that be manage to bankrupt Trump. Will his supporters rally round and get even more fired up or will they turn away.

    Already turning away.
    There is a suggestion that he has found some other appeal but, failing that, I think he has until the 25th to come up with the bond or Trump Tower is likely to be seized by the state of New York in partial payment of his fine. At which point the rest of the dominoes could fall very fast.
    The danger for Trump is that he ends up defaulting on a loan payment, in which case... phewy... it could all come tumbling very quickly indeed. Because - in all probability - there will be cross default clauses - default on anything, and all the loans get called at once.

    Now, my gut is that there is probably plenty of equity across the Trump group. But he probably needs to sell something big (and unencumbered) fast.
    Ukraine?

This discussion has been closed.