Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Ayrshire hotelier’s troubles mount – politicalbetting.com

12467

Comments

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Another Monday night and two more awful polls for the Conservatives (and they aren't much better for the LDs who seem to be sliding back below 10%).

    The Lab/LD/Green vs Con/Ref split comes out at 60-35 and 61-35 respectively and these sit well within the current polling suggesting an overall 13% swing since December 2019 - the Con/Lab swing is 18% with Deltapoll and a colossal 19.5% with Redfield & Wilton.

    The only "hope" left for the Conservatives seems to be either a huge tax cutting Autumn Statement or the possibility of the Reform vote "coming home". According to R&W, 23% of the 2019 Conservative vote is now supporting Reform - if we reduce that to just 3%, the Conservative number goes up from 21% to 29% so defeat but not extinction if you like.

    I suspect we'll see plenty of polling of Reform voters to see what, if anything, could persuade them back to the blue team as distinct from either voting Reform or not voting at all.

    “the possibility of the Reform vote "coming home". According to R&W, 23% of the 2019 Conservative vote is now supporting Reform - if we reduce that to just 3%, the Conservative number goes up from 21% to 29% so defeat but not extinction if you like.”

    Spot on Stodge. At least you are coming round to my thinking, rather than saying it’s impossible.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,837

    @Alanbrooke so when ever you would not Tory? How bad would the Tories have to be?

    The problem with you lefties is you cannot conceive of anything outside your limited experience. I didnt vote in 2019 becuse I didnt trust BOJO. Last time I voted Tory was for May as I thought she deserved chance, but she fked things up royally. In 2010 I voted against Brown not for Cameron.

    Your basic problem is you cant deal with people - and there are more of us - who dont agree with the current failed two party system. People who think Starmer and Sunak are shit are in the majority.



    Perhaps if the Tories tried a bit harder they'd be able to win voters like me (probably not me but like me): homeowners, higher rate taxpayers.

    But they don't want our votes.
    There are lots of conservative votes out there, but the conservatives will have to go back to being conservative first.

    Small but effective government
    fiscal sense
    pro business
    let people get on with their own lives
    Where is the space for small government, given the colossal numbers of old people (who all expect inflation busting pensions and many of whom also have complex health and care needs,) sick and disabled people (a bloc growing constantly as the healthcare system falls apart,) and working poor (those on low and middle incomes who are still broke and reliant on benefits, because of dreadful pay, astronomical housing costs, or both?)

    There is no such space. You can have items 2, 3 and quite a lot of 4, although we're unlikely to conquer the crippling national obesity problem without some nannying. But 1 is dead as a doornail. The big state is here to stay, what's at issue is whether anyone can be found who is willing to admit it, rather than pretending that we could have low taxes if only we were prepared to be cruel enough to the poor.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    WillG said:

    Elon Musk has called for a "red wave" this November, for the most authoritarian Republican Party in history. People need to start learning that "libertarian" in the US means "I'm extremely right wing but too embarrassed to admit associating with the crazies in polite society."

    He’s not.
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited March 18

    Nigelb said:

    Here’s one for those who think the Monty Hall problem is obvious.

    Jack the researcher takes a coin from his pocket and decides to flip it, say, one hundred times. As he is curious about what outcome typically follows a heads, whenever he flips a heads he commits to writing down the outcome of the next flip on the scrap of paper next to him. Upon completing the one hundred flips, Jack of course expects the proportion of heads written on the scrap of paper to be one-half. Shockingly, Jack is wrong. For a fair coin, the expected proportion of heads is smaller than one-half...
    https://arxiv.org/pdf/1902.01265.pdf

    Does that mean one should adopt a Roulette strategy of betting on Black immediately after every spin that lands on Red?
    No. The question doesn't ask what the probability of heads is for a given flip. That's obviously 1/2. But the number of outcomes Jack writes down varies. If the first flip is H, he writes down 99 outcomes. If the first two are TH, in that order, he writes 98. If the first three are TTH, he writes 97. Etc.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061

    Nigelb said:

    Here’s one for those who think the Monty Hall problem is obvious.

    Jack the researcher takes a coin from his pocket and decides to flip it, say, one hundred times. As he is curious about what outcome typically follows a heads, whenever he flips a heads he commits to writing down the outcome of the next flip on the scrap of paper next to him. Upon completing the one hundred flips, Jack of course expects the proportion of heads written on the scrap of paper to be one-half. Shockingly, Jack is wrong. For a fair coin, the expected proportion of heads is smaller than one-half...
    https://arxiv.org/pdf/1902.01265.pdf

    Does that mean one should adopt a Roulette strategy of betting on Black immediately after every spin that lands on Red?
    No.
    It just means you’re slightly more likely to notice winning streaks than you thought.
    Which is good news for the casinos, as you’ll still lose money.
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    Heres more from Musk.

    We have imported the criminal underworlds of 100 different countries

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1769817425673887789?s=20
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,779
    Has 'DiscloseTV' ever been discussed here? They are the darlings of 'alt-right-curious' social media users. They used to be a tabloid peddling 'Boy 14 decodes secret of the Bible!' then changed owner and started shilling pro-Russia/anti-West stories around 2016 or so.

    That's where I've seen todays 'Royal Announcement' story being peddled.

    I had a quick 20-minute dig to see who now owned them then gave up. One for a fearless knapper of truth to look into possibly. Or work for. Either/or.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,779
    Truman said:

    Heres more from Musk.

    We have imported the criminal underworlds of 100 different countries

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1769817425673887789?s=20

    That's no way to refer to the South Africans.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    Nigelb said:

    WillG said:

    Elon Musk has called for a "red wave" this November, for the most authoritarian Republican Party in history. People need to start learning that "libertarian" in the US means "I'm extremely right wing but too embarrassed to admit associating with the crazies in polite society."

    He’s not.
    Not too embarrassed to admit associating with the crazies, that is.
    Not any more.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,354
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Here’s one for those who think the Monty Hall problem is obvious.

    Jack the researcher takes a coin from his pocket and decides to flip it, say, one hundred times. As he is curious about what outcome typically follows a heads, whenever he flips a heads he commits to writing down the outcome of the next flip on the scrap of paper next to him. Upon completing the one hundred flips, Jack of course expects the proportion of heads written on the scrap of paper to be one-half. Shockingly, Jack is wrong. For a fair coin, the expected proportion of heads is smaller than one-half...
    https://arxiv.org/pdf/1902.01265.pdf

    Does that mean one should adopt a Roulette strategy of betting on Black immediately after every spin that lands on Red?
    No.
    It just means you’re slightly more likely to notice winning streaks than you thought.
    Which is good news for the casinos, as you’ll still lose money.
    I guess the bias comes from not counting the zero-length streaks.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,401
    pigeon said:

    @Alanbrooke so when ever you would not Tory? How bad would the Tories have to be?

    The problem with you lefties is you cannot conceive of anything outside your limited experience. I didnt vote in 2019 becuse I didnt trust BOJO. Last time I voted Tory was for May as I thought she deserved chance, but she fked things up royally. In 2010 I voted against Brown not for Cameron.

    Your basic problem is you cant deal with people - and there are more of us - who dont agree with the current failed two party system. People who think Starmer and Sunak are shit are in the majority.



    Perhaps if the Tories tried a bit harder they'd be able to win voters like me (probably not me but like me): homeowners, higher rate taxpayers.

    But they don't want our votes.
    There are lots of conservative votes out there, but the conservatives will have to go back to being conservative first.

    Small but effective government
    fiscal sense
    pro business
    let people get on with their own lives
    Where is the space for small government, given the colossal numbers of old people (who all expect inflation busting pensions and many of whom also have complex health and care needs,) sick and disabled people (a bloc growing constantly as the healthcare system falls apart,) and working poor (those on low and middle incomes who are still broke and reliant on benefits, because of dreadful pay, astronomical housing costs, or both?)

    There is no such space. You can have items 2, 3 and quite a lot of 4, although we're unlikely to conquer the crippling national obesity problem without some nannying. But 1 is dead as a doornail. The big state is here to stay, what's at issue is whether anyone can be found who is willing to admit it, rather than pretending that we could have low taxes if only we were prepared to be cruel enough to the poor.
    Its taken us 30 years to get in to this mess we wont get out in less than a decade. The big state has failed and we're going to have to do something else.

    So repeal loads of legal constraints no net zero, ease planning remove obstacles to getting the economy growing. If we get growth moving then the strain on everything else lessens. growth also allows to to focus on productivity which is what we have been missing for decades.

    Pensioners will have to take some of the strain along with the rest of us. And well have to put the nation back to work so no long terms sickies either. Theres enough to go at or we can just watch ourselves sink in to diminished lives.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,871

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Another Monday night and two more awful polls for the Conservatives (and they aren't much better for the LDs who seem to be sliding back below 10%).

    The Lab/LD/Green vs Con/Ref split comes out at 60-35 and 61-35 respectively and these sit well within the current polling suggesting an overall 13% swing since December 2019 - the Con/Lab swing is 18% with Deltapoll and a colossal 19.5% with Redfield & Wilton.

    The only "hope" left for the Conservatives seems to be either a huge tax cutting Autumn Statement or the possibility of the Reform vote "coming home". According to R&W, 23% of the 2019 Conservative vote is now supporting Reform - if we reduce that to just 3%, the Conservative number goes up from 21% to 29% so defeat but not extinction if you like.

    I suspect we'll see plenty of polling of Reform voters to see what, if anything, could persuade them back to the blue team as distinct from either voting Reform or not voting at all.

    “the possibility of the Reform vote "coming home". According to R&W, 23% of the 2019 Conservative vote is now supporting Reform - if we reduce that to just 3%, the Conservative number goes up from 21% to 29% so defeat but not extinction if you like.”

    Spot on Stodge. At least you are coming round to my thinking, rather than saying it’s impossible.
    Not at all - I see no actual evidence this Reform vote will move back en bloc to the Conservatives. I merely pointed out the statistical consequence IF it did. Some will, some will stay at home, some will stay with Reform. You could crunch the numbers based on a third around each option and see how that impacts the Conservative vote share.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Ratters said:

    On Trump, his downfall being his business malpractice and pyramid of debt coming tumbling down would quite a fitting end.

    Maybe Biden needs to give him the nickname 'Broke Trump'?

    We can only live in hope that the debt collectors are less forgiving towards delay and obstruction as compared to criminal courts.

    Time to start recycling all those very-late-1990s jokes about Donald Trump, after the FIRST time he went fiscally splat.

    Staple of US sit-coms, so they turn up fairly frequently on re-run channels.

    Trump was a National Lame Joke. Now he's an International Very Bad Joke.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    edited March 18
    A pleasant enough beach. Not quite the Maldives, or Koh Rong Samloem

    However, what sets this apart is that right behind me the jungle begins. Actual proper jungle with monkeys and everything

    Indeed to get to my thatched bungalow we passed a lagoon and the driver casually said “oh there are caimans in there”

    OMG caimans

    I’ve always wanted to see one. Along with polar bears and Komodo dragon they are the last massive predator I have not seen that I really want to see

    I may have to camp by the lake


  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    Perhaps Musk's price for backing Trump will be a federal contract to supply Neuralink brainchips for use with all legal law-abiding immigrants?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,401
    Truman said:

    Heres more from Musk.

    We have imported the criminal underworlds of 100 different countries

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1769817425673887789?s=20

    but the direction of travel is interesting. Why is it that lots of Russians want to go to the USA but hardly any americans want to go to Russia ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Here’s one for those who think the Monty Hall problem is obvious.

    Jack the researcher takes a coin from his pocket and decides to flip it, say, one hundred times. As he is curious about what outcome typically follows a heads, whenever he flips a heads he commits to writing down the outcome of the next flip on the scrap of paper next to him. Upon completing the one hundred flips, Jack of course expects the proportion of heads written on the scrap of paper to be one-half. Shockingly, Jack is wrong. For a fair coin, the expected proportion of heads is smaller than one-half...
    https://arxiv.org/pdf/1902.01265.pdf

    Does that mean one should adopt a Roulette strategy of betting on Black immediately after every spin that lands on Red?
    No.
    It just means you’re slightly more likely to notice winning streaks than you thought.
    Which is good news for the casinos, as you’ll still lose money.
    I guess the bias comes from not counting the zero-length streaks.
    It’s a bit like how we don’t remark on not-coincidences.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    FF43 said:

    Elon Musk or some other extreme right-wing multi-billionaire to bail Trump out?

    (Assuming no one's going to spend their last hlaf billion on Trump how many multi-billionaires are there who could do this?)

    Funny how in 4 years Musk has gone from being a darling of the left to an extreme right winger.
    The interesting thing to me is Musk's enthusiasm for trashing his own brand. He had carefully nurtured the idea of solving big world problems - climate change, space exploration - with skillful execution of challenging technical solutions. But he threw all that away with conspiracy theories and fascist ideology. You might say he's rich enough he doesn't need to care about a brand, but previously he did.
    Ah ok so now he's a fascist. Is he a Franco fascist, Mussolini light, touch of the Adolfs, Stalin ?

    Just how fascist is he in your view ?

    In the morning thread I compare Starmer to Stalin.

    Just saying.
    Same boyish charm? They each DO have a rather shy smile.

    FYI & BTW, once knew a woman, mother of a friend, a VERY conservative Republican (use to tell horror stories about WPA layabouts leaning on their shovels thanks to FDR) who told me that, as a girl/young woman, she'd thought that the Man of Steel (Joseph Vissarionovich NOT Keir) was quite handsome.

    No accounting for taste.
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    BREAKING: CATHERINE PICTURED!
    And she’s looking wonderful after a very serious health battle.
    https://thesun.co.uk/royals/26766840/princess-kate-middleton-shopping-trip-video-william/?utm_source=sharebar_app&utm_medium=sharebar_app&utm_campaign=sharebar_app_article

    But many on twitter dont think its her. The mystery deepens.

    https://x.com/danwootton/status/1769817243804672020?s=20
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    pigeon said:

    @Alanbrooke so when ever you would not Tory? How bad would the Tories have to be?

    The problem with you lefties is you cannot conceive of anything outside your limited experience. I didnt vote in 2019 becuse I didnt trust BOJO. Last time I voted Tory was for May as I thought she deserved chance, but she fked things up royally. In 2010 I voted against Brown not for Cameron.

    Your basic problem is you cant deal with people - and there are more of us - who dont agree with the current failed two party system. People who think Starmer and Sunak are shit are in the majority.



    Perhaps if the Tories tried a bit harder they'd be able to win voters like me (probably not me but like me): homeowners, higher rate taxpayers.

    But they don't want our votes.
    There are lots of conservative votes out there, but the conservatives will have to go back to being conservative first.

    Small but effective government
    fiscal sense
    pro business
    let people get on with their own lives
    Where is the space for small government, given the colossal numbers of old people (who all expect inflation busting pensions and many of whom also have complex health and care needs,) sick and disabled people (a bloc growing constantly as the healthcare system falls apart,) and working poor (those on low and middle incomes who are still broke and reliant on benefits, because of dreadful pay, astronomical housing costs, or both?)

    There is no such space. You can have items 2, 3 and quite a lot of 4, although we're unlikely to conquer the crippling national obesity problem without some nannying. But 1 is dead as a doornail. The big state is here to stay, what's at issue is whether anyone can be found who is willing to admit it, rather than pretending that we could have low taxes if only we were prepared to be cruel enough to the poor.
    Its taken us 30 years to get in to this mess we wont get out in less than a decade. The big state has failed and we're going to have to do something else.

    So repeal loads of legal constraints no net zero, ease planning remove obstacles to getting the economy growing. If we get growth moving then the strain on everything else lessens. growth also allows to to focus on productivity which is what we have been missing for decades.

    Pensioners will have to take some of the strain along with the rest of us. And well have to put the nation back to work so no long terms sickies either. Theres enough to go at or we can just watch ourselves sink in to diminished lives.
    Isn't this what the tories tried to do in 2010 - they gave up after about 6 years.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,986
    @RobDotHutton

    "Let me take you to defeat, or I'll take you to defeat!"


  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,401
    darkage said:

    pigeon said:

    @Alanbrooke so when ever you would not Tory? How bad would the Tories have to be?

    The problem with you lefties is you cannot conceive of anything outside your limited experience. I didnt vote in 2019 becuse I didnt trust BOJO. Last time I voted Tory was for May as I thought she deserved chance, but she fked things up royally. In 2010 I voted against Brown not for Cameron.

    Your basic problem is you cant deal with people - and there are more of us - who dont agree with the current failed two party system. People who think Starmer and Sunak are shit are in the majority.



    Perhaps if the Tories tried a bit harder they'd be able to win voters like me (probably not me but like me): homeowners, higher rate taxpayers.

    But they don't want our votes.
    There are lots of conservative votes out there, but the conservatives will have to go back to being conservative first.

    Small but effective government
    fiscal sense
    pro business
    let people get on with their own lives
    Where is the space for small government, given the colossal numbers of old people (who all expect inflation busting pensions and many of whom also have complex health and care needs,) sick and disabled people (a bloc growing constantly as the healthcare system falls apart,) and working poor (those on low and middle incomes who are still broke and reliant on benefits, because of dreadful pay, astronomical housing costs, or both?)

    There is no such space. You can have items 2, 3 and quite a lot of 4, although we're unlikely to conquer the crippling national obesity problem without some nannying. But 1 is dead as a doornail. The big state is here to stay, what's at issue is whether anyone can be found who is willing to admit it, rather than pretending that we could have low taxes if only we were prepared to be cruel enough to the poor.
    Its taken us 30 years to get in to this mess we wont get out in less than a decade. The big state has failed and we're going to have to do something else.

    So repeal loads of legal constraints no net zero, ease planning remove obstacles to getting the economy growing. If we get growth moving then the strain on everything else lessens. growth also allows to to focus on productivity which is what we have been missing for decades.

    Pensioners will have to take some of the strain along with the rest of us. And well have to put the nation back to work so no long terms sickies either. Theres enough to go at or we can just watch ourselves sink in to diminished lives.
    Isn't this what the tories tried to do in 2010 - they gave up after about 6 years.
    The Tories did none of this in 2010.
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    darkage said:

    pigeon said:

    @Alanbrooke so when ever you would not Tory? How bad would the Tories have to be?

    The problem with you lefties is you cannot conceive of anything outside your limited experience. I didnt vote in 2019 becuse I didnt trust BOJO. Last time I voted Tory was for May as I thought she deserved chance, but she fked things up royally. In 2010 I voted against Brown not for Cameron.

    Your basic problem is you cant deal with people - and there are more of us - who dont agree with the current failed two party system. People who think Starmer and Sunak are shit are in the majority.



    Perhaps if the Tories tried a bit harder they'd be able to win voters like me (probably not me but like me): homeowners, higher rate taxpayers.

    But they don't want our votes.
    There are lots of conservative votes out there, but the conservatives will have to go back to being conservative first.

    Small but effective government
    fiscal sense
    pro business
    let people get on with their own lives
    Where is the space for small government, given the colossal numbers of old people (who all expect inflation busting pensions and many of whom also have complex health and care needs,) sick and disabled people (a bloc growing constantly as the healthcare system falls apart,) and working poor (those on low and middle incomes who are still broke and reliant on benefits, because of dreadful pay, astronomical housing costs, or both?)

    There is no such space. You can have items 2, 3 and quite a lot of 4, although we're unlikely to conquer the crippling national obesity problem without some nannying. But 1 is dead as a doornail. The big state is here to stay, what's at issue is whether anyone can be found who is willing to admit it, rather than pretending that we could have low taxes if only we were prepared to be cruel enough to the poor.
    Its taken us 30 years to get in to this mess we wont get out in less than a decade. The big state has failed and we're going to have to do something else.

    So repeal loads of legal constraints no net zero, ease planning remove obstacles to getting the economy growing. If we get growth moving then the strain on everything else lessens. growth also allows to to focus on productivity which is what we have been missing for decades.

    Pensioners will have to take some of the strain along with the rest of us. And well have to put the nation back to work so no long terms sickies either. Theres enough to go at or we can just watch ourselves sink in to diminished lives.
    Isn't this what the tories tried to do in 2010 - they gave up after about 6 years.
    Demographics are working against us im afriad. Lots of oldies to look afetr.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Truman 1948 - Give 'em Hell, Harry!

    "Truman" 2024 - Go to Hell, Gary!
  • Scott_xP said:

    @RobDotHutton

    "Let me take you to defeat, or I'll take you to defeat!"


    LOL that's an amusing final line.

    However the threat is as hollow as when Boris tried the same thing "don't move against me or there'll be an election" didn't work then, why would it work now?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627

    @Alanbrooke so when ever you would not Tory? How bad would the Tories have to be?

    The problem with you lefties is you cannot conceive of anything outside your limited experience. I didnt vote in 2019 becuse I didnt trust BOJO. Last time I voted Tory was for May as I thought she deserved chance, but she fked things up royally. In 2010 I voted against Brown not for Cameron.

    Your basic problem is you cant deal with people - and there are more of us - who dont agree with the current failed two party system. People who think Starmer and Sunak are shit are in the majority.



    Perhaps if the Tories tried a bit harder they'd be able to win voters like me (probably not me but like me): homeowners, higher rate taxpayers.

    But they don't want our votes.
    There are lots of conservative votes out there, but the conservatives will have to go back to being conservative first.

    Small but effective government
    fiscal sense
    pro business
    let people get on with their own lives
    Nought out of four at present.

    It's easy to see why they are charcoal toast.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    Ratters said:

    These people are on drugs. That's the only possible explanation...

    Alex Wickham
    @alexwickham

    — Sunak allies aware that May 2 locals are a huge flashpoint, but they hope Susan Hall can get the PM out of jail by defeating Sadiq Khan against the odds in London

    — that’d buy him time to get a Rwanda flight off and make it to autumn, supporters say…

    Satire, surely?

    Khan is hardly shooting the lights out, but I have never heard a single person in London reference Susan Hall in my life. And the little I've seen on here suggests she is crap.

    Londoners will head out and check the Labour box, or else protest for Lib Dems / Reform / Green.

    If she gets half of Khan's vote as per the latest yougov poll I'll be impressed.

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/47662-sadiq-khan-holds-25-point-lead-over-susan-hall-for-mayor
    Khan is the blandest mayor possible. In the Hollywood film set in the U.K. he is perfect as “The London Major” who gets one line at the big meeting and is never mentioned again.

    His thing is being non-toxic and Labour. He hasn’t set the place on fire - in either sense. Which will see him home easily. That and a small amount of name recognition.

    The other candidates are utterly unknown.
    Whatever else Susan Hall is, she's not bland.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,401
    Foxy said:

    @Alanbrooke so when ever you would not Tory? How bad would the Tories have to be?

    The problem with you lefties is you cannot conceive of anything outside your limited experience. I didnt vote in 2019 becuse I didnt trust BOJO. Last time I voted Tory was for May as I thought she deserved chance, but she fked things up royally. In 2010 I voted against Brown not for Cameron.

    Your basic problem is you cant deal with people - and there are more of us - who dont agree with the current failed two party system. People who think Starmer and Sunak are shit are in the majority.



    Perhaps if the Tories tried a bit harder they'd be able to win voters like me (probably not me but like me): homeowners, higher rate taxpayers.

    But they don't want our votes.
    There are lots of conservative votes out there, but the conservatives will have to go back to being conservative first.

    Small but effective government
    fiscal sense
    pro business
    let people get on with their own lives
    Nought out of four at present.

    It's easy to see why they are charcoal toast.
    Foxy said:

    @Alanbrooke so when ever you would not Tory? How bad would the Tories have to be?

    The problem with you lefties is you cannot conceive of anything outside your limited experience. I didnt vote in 2019 becuse I didnt trust BOJO. Last time I voted Tory was for May as I thought she deserved chance, but she fked things up royally. In 2010 I voted against Brown not for Cameron.

    Your basic problem is you cant deal with people - and there are more of us - who dont agree with the current failed two party system. People who think Starmer and Sunak are shit are in the majority.



    Perhaps if the Tories tried a bit harder they'd be able to win voters like me (probably not me but like me): homeowners, higher rate taxpayers.

    But they don't want our votes.
    There are lots of conservative votes out there, but the conservatives will have to go back to being conservative first.

    Small but effective government
    fiscal sense
    pro business
    let people get on with their own lives
    Nought out of four at present.

    It's easy to see why they are charcoal toast.
    Indeed. It's why so many of their voters will sit this one out.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,643
    The Uxbridge by-election win was a disaster for the Tories. All the war on woke, war on cul-de-sacs, Susan Hall stuff stems from that.

    They should have stuck with Sunak's smooth, boring competence and an orderly withdrawal into opposition. Too late now.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    Oooh. Caimans are notoriously aggressive and will attack and kill people on occasion

    This happened about 5km from where I am

    “This is not the first time a caiman has attacked a human at this river mouth. In 2014, a similar incident occurred when a caiman appeared and attacked a child who was playing in shallow waters. The following year, a surfer was dragged into the water by a large caiman but managed to escape with his life, albeit with serious leg injuries. And just one month ago, another minor was reported to be attacked.”

    https://thecitypaperbogota.com/news/caiman-attacks-and-kills-boy-on-colombian-coast-near-tayrona-park/

    Maybe I won’t actually “camp by the lake”
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,871
    Truman said:

    BREAKING: CATHERINE PICTURED!
    And she’s looking wonderful after a very serious health battle.
    https://thesun.co.uk/royals/26766840/princess-kate-middleton-shopping-trip-video-william/?utm_source=sharebar_app&utm_medium=sharebar_app&utm_campaign=sharebar_app_article

    But many on twitter dont think its her. The mystery deepens.

    https://x.com/danwootton/status/1769817243804672020?s=20

    Well, one person on the Dan Wootton thread so who these "many" are I've no clue. Indeed, reading Wootton, the mystery doesn't deepen at all.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    Truman said:

    BREAKING: CATHERINE PICTURED!
    And she’s looking wonderful after a very serious health battle.
    https://thesun.co.uk/royals/26766840/princess-kate-middleton-shopping-trip-video-william/?utm_source=sharebar_app&utm_medium=sharebar_app&utm_campaign=sharebar_app_article

    But many on twitter dont think its her. The mystery deepens.

    https://x.com/danwootton/status/1769817243804672020?s=20

    I think that IS her - looking rather thin and frail - but it is her (is my guess)

    Bless her. What an ordeal
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,401
    Leon said:

    Oooh. Caimans are notoriously aggressive and will attack and kill people on occasion

    This happened about 5km from where I am

    “This is not the first time a caiman has attacked a human at this river mouth. In 2014, a similar incident occurred when a caiman appeared and attacked a child who was playing in shallow waters. The following year, a surfer was dragged into the water by a large caiman but managed to escape with his life, albeit with serious leg injuries. And just one month ago, another minor was reported to be attacked.”

    https://thecitypaperbogota.com/news/caiman-attacks-and-kills-boy-on-colombian-coast-near-tayrona-park/

    Maybe I won’t actually “camp by the lake”

    Caiman Shmaiman - we want photos of Escobars hippos.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,620
    Truman said:

    BREAKING: CATHERINE PICTURED!
    And she’s looking wonderful after a very serious health battle.
    https://thesun.co.uk/royals/26766840/princess-kate-middleton-shopping-trip-video-william/?utm_source=sharebar_app&utm_medium=sharebar_app&utm_campaign=sharebar_app_article

    But many on twitter dont think its her. The mystery deepens.

    https://x.com/danwootton/status/1769817243804672020?s=20

    So Kate's not ditched William for Harry then which was my theory.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412

    Donkeys said:

    It's probably just a coincidence, but the two polls published today are monumentally awful for the Tories. Down 3% in a week with Redfield & Wilton, and down 4% in a week with Deltapoll, and Labour benefiting, +5 in one and +2 in the other. Not a swing involving Reform this time.

    It feels impossible that the Tories will change PM again, but how much longer can Sunak survive such terrible polling?

    He was mad to rule out May. It is only going one way.

    Appallingly advised and hopeless at politics himself.
    The guy's total crap at everything. [1] The way he keeps saying "actually" makes him look an arrogant prick who's not listening to what the other person is saying, because he considers them to be beneath him. Which is what he is.

    The question for Tory MPs is how many more seats will the party win if they ditch Sunak. The betting market probably has it right at the moment and the person most likely to replace him is Mordaunt.[2] It could be an interesting week.

    Half the poll deficit disappears as soon as he's replaced.

    There could still be a general election on 2 May. If there isn't, and Sunak's still there, he and his party are going to get their arses kicked all over the place in the locals. Especially in London. Great for Reform UK.

    1) Why did he leave Goldmans?

    2) Why can't she speak for herself, attributably, to "scotch the rumours" in journospeak?
    Sunak is crap, but the Tory polling reflects a succession of crap PMs and governance, not just Sunak. I don’t think “Half the poll deficit disappears as soon as he’s replaced.”

    Replacing Sunak doesn’t show that the Conservative Party is competent and ruthless: it shows them as desperate, and desperate isn’t attractive to the voters.

    I think if Sunak goes, the Tory polling will initially sink further. If they’re lucky, if the process of picking a new leader isn’t too painful and they manage to find someone with some nouse, neither of which seems that likely judging by recent history, then maybe the Tory polling would improve.
    The poll deficit will not shrink. Quite the contrary it will widen. It will hammer home that you have no clue what the tories stand for and it could change next week again. Are they big state centrists, libertarians, blood and soil ethnonationalists? Nobody knows. It makes them even riskier to vote for.
    He's had two budgets and a great deal of legislative time and a Commons majority to deal with the cost of living crisis and stave off a recession. He's done nothing except tinker at the edges, ban cigarettes, fund chess boards, and have several self-indulgent temporary relaunches.

    The excuses that get made for not changing PM at this stage are risible. Firstly it was way too soon to get rid of him, now apparently it has become way too late to get rid of him, with no intervening period. When the polls hit this low for Truss, she did the decent thing and resigned, and she is meant to be the 'shameless' one. Sunak by contrast has been threatening Tory MPs with electoral wipeout (thanks to him). It's never too late or early to correct a mistake.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    nico679 said:

    isam said:

    Conservative Vote Share in Our Polling:

    Boris Johnson: 131 Polls

    Highest: 52% (17 Apr 2020)
    Lowest: 30% (17 Jan 2022)

    Liz Truss: 12 Polls

    Highest: 34% (18 Sept 2022)
    Lowest: 19% (19 Oct 2022)

    Rishi Sunak: 74 Polls

    Highest: 32% (16 Apr 2023)
    Lowest: 21% (11 Feb, 17 Mar 2024)

    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1769773355299725361?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Bozo started the slide and the next two just continued it . I doubt Labour would lose any sleep if he miraculously came back.

    A pathological liar who left parliament in disgrace isn’t an election winning slogan .
    The Tories have been on a downward trajectory ever since Starmer became Labour leader.

  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,643
    edited March 18
    Disqualified from driving for 5 years.

    If you use a vehicle as a weapon, or cause death by dangerous driving, it should be an automatic life ban.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895

    @Alanbrooke so when ever you would not Tory? How bad would the Tories have to be?

    The problem with you lefties is you cannot conceive of anything outside your limited experience. I didnt vote in 2019 becuse I didnt trust BOJO. Last time I voted Tory was for May as I thought she deserved chance, but she fked things up royally. In 2010 I voted against Brown not for Cameron.

    Your basic problem is you cant deal with people - and there are more of us - who dont agree with the current failed two party system. People who think Starmer and Sunak are shit are in the majority.

    I'm a LibDem these days, so right there with you about the "current failed two party system". And brand Starmer as "Sir Keith Donkey".

    Problem is that we DO have a 2 party system. After the election we will have either a Tory government or a Labour government. So it all comes down to choice. I'm not backing Labour, but like the majority of people in this country I will cheer as the Tories are finally removed.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412
    nico679 said:

    FF43 said:

    Elon Musk or some other extreme right-wing multi-billionaire to bail Trump out?

    (Assuming no one's going to spend their last hlaf billion on Trump how many multi-billionaires are there who could do this?)

    Funny how in 4 years Musk has gone from being a darling of the left to an extreme right winger.
    The interesting thing to me is Musk's enthusiasm for thrashing his own brand. He had carefully nurtured the idea of solving big world problems - climate change, space exploration - with skillful execution of challenging technical solutions. But threw all that away with conspiracy theories and fascist ideology. You might say he's rich enough he doesn't need to care about a brand, but previously he did.
    Anyone who enables Trump is vermin . That also includes the right wingers in the UK who fawn over him.
    Nobody in the UK has any role in 'enabling' Trump; he is running for election in a foreign country. What we have is a decision whether to perform our public duty of wetting ourselves about the prospect of him being re-elected, or not to care that much.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,274
    Truman said:

    BREAKING: CATHERINE PICTURED!
    And she’s looking wonderful after a very serious health battle.
    https://thesun.co.uk/royals/26766840/princess-kate-middleton-shopping-trip-video-william/?utm_source=sharebar_app&utm_medium=sharebar_app&utm_campaign=sharebar_app_article

    But many on twitter dont think its her. The mystery deepens.

    https://x.com/danwootton/status/1769817243804672020?s=20

    Kate's Alive!!! :smiley:
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,871
    edited March 18
    We are told this is the Conservative voter's "wish list":

    Small but effective government
    fiscal sense
    pro business
    let people get on with their own lives


    I've no idea what "Small but Effective Government" means - how small, how effective, define effective, how do you measure whether it's effective or not? Central Government? Local Government?

    "Fiscal sense" - in terms of reducing the deficit and debt, I'd agree but that won't be achieved by tax cuts but a mixture of tax rises and spending cuts so which taxes get raised, what gets cut? Are we looking to have the public finances in surplus or are we aiming to start paying back the debt? What about the increased defence spending everyone seems to want to deal with a Russian military threat which looks a shade exaggerated?

    "Pro Business"? I'd prefer pro consumer and certainly much more stringent regulation on some of the companies owning our utilities and some of the larger service companies - pro small business, yes, reasonable to a point.

    "Let people get on with their lives" - how are people not able to do that? What is it people can't do they'd like to do? Should we, like the Germans, abolish motorway speed limits so people can drive as fast as they like? Regulatory checks on gamblers? Certainly divisive but not perhaps the apocolyptic scenario some would suggest.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239

    Truman said:

    BREAKING: CATHERINE PICTURED!
    And she’s looking wonderful after a very serious health battle.
    https://thesun.co.uk/royals/26766840/princess-kate-middleton-shopping-trip-video-william/?utm_source=sharebar_app&utm_medium=sharebar_app&utm_campaign=sharebar_app_article

    But many on twitter dont think its her. The mystery deepens.

    https://x.com/danwootton/status/1769817243804672020?s=20

    So Kate's not ditched William for Harry then which was my theory.
    God save the Princess of Wales

    All patriotic Brits love her to bits and vile internet trolls with their “katespiracies” can go and so on

    I, for one, never remotely believed the insane idea she was in hospital to remove William’s favourite strap on which got “royal lodged”
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627
    FF43 said:

    Elon Musk or some other extreme right-wing multi-billionaire to bail Trump out?

    (Assuming no one's going to spend their last hlaf billion on Trump how many multi-billionaires are there who could do this?)

    Funny how in 4 years Musk has gone from being a darling of the left to an extreme right winger.
    The interesting thing to me is Musk's enthusiasm for trashing his own brand. He had carefully nurtured the idea of solving big world problems - climate change, space exploration - with skillful execution of challenging technical solutions. But he threw all that away with conspiracy theories and fascist ideology. You might say he's rich enough he doesn't need to care about a brand, but previously he did.
    He models himself on Bond Villains. Probably has a concealed secret base filled with henchmen on an island somewhere. And a Persian Cat.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,401

    @Alanbrooke so when ever you would not Tory? How bad would the Tories have to be?

    The problem with you lefties is you cannot conceive of anything outside your limited experience. I didnt vote in 2019 becuse I didnt trust BOJO. Last time I voted Tory was for May as I thought she deserved chance, but she fked things up royally. In 2010 I voted against Brown not for Cameron.

    Your basic problem is you cant deal with people - and there are more of us - who dont agree with the current failed two party system. People who think Starmer and Sunak are shit are in the majority.

    I'm a LibDem these days, so right there with you about the "current failed two party system". And brand Starmer as "Sir Keith Donkey".

    Problem is that we DO have a 2 party system. After the election we will have either a Tory government or a Labour government. So it all comes down to choice. I'm not backing Labour, but like the majority of people in this country I will cheer as the Tories are finally removed.
    The Tories deserve to go. Yes they had back luck with Covid and Putin in this Parliament, but they are expected to manage a crisis and havent bothered. They have shirked matters which might improve citizens lives and are being punished as a result.

    Unfortunately Labour will be more of the same.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited March 18
    Truman said:

    More intelligent remarks from Laurence Fox.

    Biden is goading Trump and his supporters into violence.

    Last chance saloon for a fallen, corrupt and evil regime.

    They know he is finished, so they would rather take down America than let the people decide.

    How did the world become this unstable this fast?
    4:55 PM · Mar 18, 2024
    ·
    4,858
    Views
    https://x.com/LozzaFox/status/1769769545068151134?s=20

    Fox was shit in "Lewis" too.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627

    Truman said:

    BREAKING: CATHERINE PICTURED!
    And she’s looking wonderful after a very serious health battle.
    https://thesun.co.uk/royals/26766840/princess-kate-middleton-shopping-trip-video-william/?utm_source=sharebar_app&utm_medium=sharebar_app&utm_campaign=sharebar_app_article

    But many on twitter dont think its her. The mystery deepens.

    https://x.com/danwootton/status/1769817243804672020?s=20

    So Kate's not ditched William for Harry then which was my theory.
    Very skinny though, so fits the eating disorder theory.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,274
    Leon said:

    Truman said:

    BREAKING: CATHERINE PICTURED!
    And she’s looking wonderful after a very serious health battle.
    https://thesun.co.uk/royals/26766840/princess-kate-middleton-shopping-trip-video-william/?utm_source=sharebar_app&utm_medium=sharebar_app&utm_campaign=sharebar_app_article

    But many on twitter dont think its her. The mystery deepens.

    https://x.com/danwootton/status/1769817243804672020?s=20

    So Kate's not ditched William for Harry then which was my theory.
    God save the Princess of Wales

    All patriotic Brits love her to bits and vile internet trolls with their “katespiracies” can go and so on

    I, for one, never remotely believed the insane idea she was in hospital to remove William’s favourite strap on which got “royal lodged”
    No of course you didn't... 😂
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,213

    FF43 said:

    Elon Musk or some other extreme right-wing multi-billionaire to bail Trump out?

    (Assuming no one's going to spend their last hlaf billion on Trump how many multi-billionaires are there who could do this?)

    Funny how in 4 years Musk has gone from being a darling of the left to an extreme right winger.
    The interesting thing to me is Musk's enthusiasm for trashing his own brand. He had carefully nurtured the idea of solving big world problems - climate change, space exploration - with skillful execution of challenging technical solutions. But he threw all that away with conspiracy theories and fascist ideology. You might say he's rich enough he doesn't need to care about a brand, but previously he did.
    Ah ok so now he's a fascist. Is he a Franco fascist, Mussolini light, touch of the Adolfs, Stalin ?

    Just how fascist is he in your view ?

    In the morning thread I compare Starmer to Stalin.

    Just saying.
    Same boyish charm? They each DO have a rather shy smile.

    FYI & BTW, once knew a woman, mother of a friend, a VERY conservative Republican (use to tell horror stories about WPA layabouts leaning on their shovels thanks to FDR) who told me that, as a girl/young woman, she'd thought that the Man of Steel (Joseph Vissarionovich NOT Keir) was quite handsome.

    No accounting for taste.
    When Stalin was a young, very murderous* bandit, he was apparently a massive hit with the ladies.

    *His theory of bank robbery was to shoot everyone he could in a small town, pretty much.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,986
    TTOI, Where are they now...

    @HughRBrechin
    Stewart hasn't returned to the UK since 2020. He was a senior advisor to Ron de Santis during his presidential campaign and describes himself in his Twitter bio as 'consigliere and thought sommelier to Elon Musk'.


  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068

    FF43 said:

    Elon Musk or some other extreme right-wing multi-billionaire to bail Trump out?

    (Assuming no one's going to spend their last hlaf billion on Trump how many multi-billionaires are there who could do this?)

    Funny how in 4 years Musk has gone from being a darling of the left to an extreme right winger.
    The interesting thing to me is Musk's enthusiasm for trashing his own brand. He had carefully nurtured the idea of solving big world problems - climate change, space exploration - with skillful execution of challenging technical solutions. But he threw all that away with conspiracy theories and fascist ideology. You might say he's rich enough he doesn't need to care about a brand, but previously he did.
    Ah ok so now he's a fascist. Is he a Franco fascist, Mussolini light, touch of the Adolfs, Stalin ?

    Just how fascist is he in your view ?

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/01/07/classification/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    Eabhal said:

    Disqualified from driving for 5 years.

    If you use a vehicle as a weapon, or cause death by dangerous driving, it should be an automatic life ban.
    Indeed

    Also he did this

    “Mistry also collided head-on with another vehicle travelling in the opposite direction, causing serious injuries to the front passenger of the car. They were taken by ambulance to Milton Keynes university hospital.”

    He nearly killed TWO people, and one of them was an attempted murder

    He will be out within 2 years with that ludicrously lenient sentence. I hope the Crown appeals and he gets ten years
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027
    GB news annouce exclusive Farage interview with Trump tomorrow

    Anyone associated with RefUK or Farage are de facto Trump supporters

    The world really needs Trump this year to complete the utter despair of millions of people yearning for peacemakers and competent politicians
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,742

    Scott_xP said:

    @RobDotHutton

    "Let me take you to defeat, or I'll take you to defeat!"


    LOL that's an amusing final line.

    However the threat is as hollow as when Boris tried the same thing "don't move against me or there'll be an election" didn't work then, why would it work now?
    It's nonsense though. Sunak won't call an election any time soon for all the reasons we've rehearsed (but mainly, polls). If he was thinking of it, he wouldn't have ruled May out - which more than anything is what gave this talk legs because it's given it space in which to 'work'.

    But if they did move against him, it's questionable whether he'd have the authority to request an election and at the very least would put the Palace in a very difficult position of either being complicit in Sunak's constitutional dodginess or refusing an election more than 4 years into a parliament.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,213
    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Disqualified from driving for 5 years.

    If you use a vehicle as a weapon, or cause death by dangerous driving, it should be an automatic life ban.
    Indeed

    Also he did this

    “Mistry also collided head-on with another vehicle travelling in the opposite direction, causing serious injuries to the front passenger of the car. They were taken by ambulance to Milton Keynes university hospital.”

    He nearly killed TWO people, and one of them was an attempted murder

    He will be out within 2 years with that ludicrously lenient sentence. I hope the Crown appeals and he gets ten years
    One for the legal chaps - why wasn’t he charged with attempted murder?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,401
    stodge said:

    We are told this is the Conservative voter's "wish list":

    Small but effective government
    fiscal sense
    pro business
    let people get on with their own lives


    I've no idea what "Small but Effective Government" means - how small, how effective, define effective, how do you measure whether it's effective or not? Central Government? Local Government?

    "Fiscal sense" - in terms of reducing the deficit and debt, I'd agree but that won't be achieved by tax cuts but a mixture of tax rises and spending cuts so which taxes get raised, what gets cut? Are we looking to have the public finances in surplus or are we aiming to start paying back the debt? What about the increased defence spending everyone seems to want to deal with a Russian military threat which looks a shade exaggerated?

    "Pro Business"? I'd prefer pro consumer and certainly much more stringent regulation on some of the companies owning our utilities and some of the larger service companies - pro small business, yes, reasonable to a point.

    "Let people get on with their lives" - how are people not able to do that? What is it people can't do they'd like to do? Should we, like the Germans, abolish motorway speed limits so people can drive as fast as they like? Regulatory checks on gamblers? Certainly divisive but not perhaps the apocolyptic scenario some would suggest.

    Too many things to answer in a post, I simply indicate the direction of travel we need. There are no overnight solutions where we are, it will take at least a decade to get back on our feet.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412
    stodge said:

    We are told this is the Conservative voter's "wish list":

    Small but effective government
    fiscal sense
    pro business
    let people get on with their own lives


    I've no idea what "Small but Effective Government" means - how small, how effective, define effective, how do you measure whether it's effective or not? Central Government? Local Government?

    "Fiscal sense" - in terms of reducing the deficit and debt, I'd agree but that won't be achieved by tax cuts but a mixture of tax rises and spending cuts so which taxes get raised, what gets cut? Are we looking to have the public finances in surplus or are we aiming to start paying back the debt? What about the increased defence spending everyone seems to want to deal with a Russian military threat which looks a shade exaggerated?

    "Pro Business"? I'd prefer pro consumer and certainly much more stringent regulation on some of the companies owning our utilities and some of the larger service companies - pro small business, yes, reasonable to a point.

    "Let people get on with their lives" - how are people not able to do that? What is it people can't do they'd like to do? Should we, like the Germans, abolish motorway speed limits so people can drive as fast as they like? Regulatory checks on gamblers? Certainly divisive but not perhaps the apocolyptic scenario some would suggest.

    Are you alright? Why have you posted three bullet points of your own making, then followed it with big long arguments demanding that someone explain your own bullet points?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Truman said:

    BREAKING: CATHERINE PICTURED!
    And she’s looking wonderful after a very serious health battle.
    https://thesun.co.uk/royals/26766840/princess-kate-middleton-shopping-trip-video-william/?utm_source=sharebar_app&utm_medium=sharebar_app&utm_campaign=sharebar_app_article

    But many on twitter dont think its her. The mystery deepens.

    https://x.com/danwootton/status/1769817243804672020?s=20

    So Kate's not ditched William for Harry then which was my theory.
    It would be more interesting if she'd ditched baldy for Meghan.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814

    Truman said:

    BREAKING: CATHERINE PICTURED!
    And she’s looking wonderful after a very serious health battle.
    https://thesun.co.uk/royals/26766840/princess-kate-middleton-shopping-trip-video-william/?utm_source=sharebar_app&utm_medium=sharebar_app&utm_campaign=sharebar_app_article

    But many on twitter dont think its her. The mystery deepens.

    https://x.com/danwootton/status/1769817243804672020?s=20

    So Kate's not ditched William for Harry then which was my theory.
    Woman goes shopping, is news?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814

    stodge said:

    We are told this is the Conservative voter's "wish list":

    Small but effective government
    fiscal sense
    pro business
    let people get on with their own lives


    I've no idea what "Small but Effective Government" means - how small, how effective, define effective, how do you measure whether it's effective or not? Central Government? Local Government?

    "Fiscal sense" - in terms of reducing the deficit and debt, I'd agree but that won't be achieved by tax cuts but a mixture of tax rises and spending cuts so which taxes get raised, what gets cut? Are we looking to have the public finances in surplus or are we aiming to start paying back the debt? What about the increased defence spending everyone seems to want to deal with a Russian military threat which looks a shade exaggerated?

    "Pro Business"? I'd prefer pro consumer and certainly much more stringent regulation on some of the companies owning our utilities and some of the larger service companies - pro small business, yes, reasonable to a point.

    "Let people get on with their lives" - how are people not able to do that? What is it people can't do they'd like to do? Should we, like the Germans, abolish motorway speed limits so people can drive as fast as they like? Regulatory checks on gamblers? Certainly divisive but not perhaps the apocolyptic scenario some would suggest.

    Are you alright? Why have you posted three bullet points of your own making, then followed it with big long arguments demanding that someone explain your own bullet points?
    No, they are @Alanbrooke bullet points.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814
    isam said:

    What is going on here?

    Dear #BBCVerify, is the BBC telling fibs about being in Islamabad? The same bus is on loop in the background. Is this disinformation?


    https://x.com/darrengrimes_/status/1769732333895086340?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    So BBC Scotland's every report with a pic of Glasgow or Edinburgh in the background was filmed in British Museum Tube Station, is your inference?
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    GB news annouce exclusive Farage interview with Trump tomorrow

    Anyone associated with RefUK or Farage are de facto Trump supporters

    The world really needs Trump this year to complete the utter despair of millions of people yearning for peacemakers and competent politicians

    I expect Labour to ensure Ofcom forces genuine impartiality on to GB news and it will either become a pale imitation of Sky or, hopefully, close down altogether.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,274

    Scott_xP said:

    @RobDotHutton

    "Let me take you to defeat, or I'll take you to defeat!"


    LOL that's an amusing final line.

    However the threat is as hollow as when Boris tried the same thing "don't move against me or there'll be an election" didn't work then, why would it work now?
    It's nonsense though. Sunak won't call an election any time soon for all the reasons we've rehearsed (but mainly, polls). If he was thinking of it, he wouldn't have ruled May out - which more than anything is what gave this talk legs because it's given it space in which to 'work'.

    But if they did move against him, it's questionable whether he'd have the authority to request an election and at the very least would put the Palace in a very difficult position of either being complicit in Sunak's constitutional dodginess or refusing an election more than 4 years into a parliament.
    Well we really need an election now to clear the air and the public are clearly yearning for change and a Labour government, so if Sunak did request a dissolution, hopefully the King and the Palace would facilitate that.

    It's not going to happen though.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239

    FF43 said:

    Elon Musk or some other extreme right-wing multi-billionaire to bail Trump out?

    (Assuming no one's going to spend their last hlaf billion on Trump how many multi-billionaires are there who could do this?)

    Funny how in 4 years Musk has gone from being a darling of the left to an extreme right winger.
    The interesting thing to me is Musk's enthusiasm for trashing his own brand. He had carefully nurtured the idea of solving big world problems - climate change, space exploration - with skillful execution of challenging technical solutions. But he threw all that away with conspiracy theories and fascist ideology. You might say he's rich enough he doesn't need to care about a brand, but previously he did.
    Ah ok so now he's a fascist. Is he a Franco fascist, Mussolini light, touch of the Adolfs, Stalin ?

    Just how fascist is he in your view ?

    In the morning thread I compare Starmer to Stalin.

    Just saying.
    Same boyish charm? They each DO have a rather shy smile.

    FYI & BTW, once knew a woman, mother of a friend, a VERY conservative Republican (use to tell horror stories about WPA layabouts leaning on their shovels thanks to FDR) who told me that, as a girl/young woman, she'd thought that the Man of Steel (Joseph Vissarionovich NOT Keir) was quite handsome.

    No accounting for taste.
    When Stalin was a young, very murderous* bandit, he was apparently a massive hit with the ladies.

    *His theory of bank robbery was to shoot everyone he could in a small town, pretty much.
    Stalin was notably handsome as a young man. Impressive head of hair

    I’ve been to Gori in Georgia (his birthplace) where they have a museum dedicated to him. It’s full of photos of young Stalin looking dashing. The pockmarked face came later



  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    Carnyx said:

    Truman said:

    BREAKING: CATHERINE PICTURED!
    And she’s looking wonderful after a very serious health battle.
    https://thesun.co.uk/royals/26766840/princess-kate-middleton-shopping-trip-video-william/?utm_source=sharebar_app&utm_medium=sharebar_app&utm_campaign=sharebar_app_article

    But many on twitter dont think its her. The mystery deepens.

    https://x.com/danwootton/status/1769817243804672020?s=20

    So Kate's not ditched William for Harry then which was my theory.
    Woman goes shopping, is news?
    Along with "man puts graffiti on wall" on today's bulletins.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,213

    stodge said:

    We are told this is the Conservative voter's "wish list":

    Small but effective government
    fiscal sense
    pro business
    let people get on with their own lives


    I've no idea what "Small but Effective Government" means - how small, how effective, define effective, how do you measure whether it's effective or not? Central Government? Local Government?

    "Fiscal sense" - in terms of reducing the deficit and debt, I'd agree but that won't be achieved by tax cuts but a mixture of tax rises and spending cuts so which taxes get raised, what gets cut? Are we looking to have the public finances in surplus or are we aiming to start paying back the debt? What about the increased defence spending everyone seems to want to deal with a Russian military threat which looks a shade exaggerated?

    "Pro Business"? I'd prefer pro consumer and certainly much more stringent regulation on some of the companies owning our utilities and some of the larger service companies - pro small business, yes, reasonable to a point.

    "Let people get on with their lives" - how are people not able to do that? What is it people can't do they'd like to do? Should we, like the Germans, abolish motorway speed limits so people can drive as fast as they like? Regulatory checks on gamblers? Certainly divisive but not perhaps the apocolyptic scenario some would suggest.

    Too many things to answer in a post, I simply indicate the direction of travel we need. There are no overnight solutions where we are, it will take at least a decade to get back on our feet.
    My ideas on reducing worse-than-useless process, and making government more productive and consumer friendly could be seen as meat for either party.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814
    Carnyx said:

    isam said:

    What is going on here?

    Dear #BBCVerify, is the BBC telling fibs about being in Islamabad? The same bus is on loop in the background. Is this disinformation?


    https://x.com/darrengrimes_/status/1769732333895086340?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    So BBC Scotland's every report with a pic of Glasgow or Edinburgh in the background was filmed in British Museum Tube Station, is your inference?
    British Museum station closed in 1933, it was replaced by building Central Line platforms at Holborn (hitherto Piccadilly Line only).
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,643
    edited March 18

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Disqualified from driving for 5 years.

    If you use a vehicle as a weapon, or cause death by dangerous driving, it should be an automatic life ban.
    Indeed

    Also he did this

    “Mistry also collided head-on with another vehicle travelling in the opposite direction, causing serious injuries to the front passenger of the car. They were taken by ambulance to Milton Keynes university hospital.”

    He nearly killed TWO people, and one of them was an attempted murder

    He will be out within 2 years with that ludicrously lenient sentence. I hope the Crown appeals and he gets ten years
    One for the legal chaps - why wasn’t he charged with attempted murder?
    If it were a knife, for example... there is a bit of a blind spot in the courts/police/CPS when it comes to stuff like this.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,174
    Carnyx said:

    isam said:

    What is going on here?

    Dear #BBCVerify, is the BBC telling fibs about being in Islamabad? The same bus is on loop in the background. Is this disinformation?


    https://x.com/darrengrimes_/status/1769732333895086340?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    So BBC Scotland's every report with a pic of Glasgow or Edinburgh in the background was filmed in British Museum Tube Station, is your inference?
    It’s the sound effects that are the problem. It gives the impression that she is outside when she clearly isn’t. I have no idea where that was filmed but it most certainly wasn’t filmed outside.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412

    GB news annouce exclusive Farage interview with Trump tomorrow

    Anyone associated with RefUK or Farage are de facto Trump supporters

    The world really needs Trump this year to complete the utter despair of millions of people yearning for peacemakers and competent politicians

    I expect Labour to ensure Ofcom forces genuine impartiality on to GB news and it will either become a pale imitation of Sky or, hopefully, close down altogether.
    My unintended irony meter just overloaded.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,742
    Foxy said:

    Truman said:

    BREAKING: CATHERINE PICTURED!
    And she’s looking wonderful after a very serious health battle.
    https://thesun.co.uk/royals/26766840/princess-kate-middleton-shopping-trip-video-william/?utm_source=sharebar_app&utm_medium=sharebar_app&utm_campaign=sharebar_app_article

    But many on twitter dont think its her. The mystery deepens.

    https://x.com/danwootton/status/1769817243804672020?s=20

    So Kate's not ditched William for Harry then which was my theory.
    Very skinny though, so fits the eating disorder theory.
    She has always been thin though. A serious illness / operation could well cause further weight loss. But that's speculation either way.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653

    stodge said:

    We are told this is the Conservative voter's "wish list":

    Small but effective government
    fiscal sense
    pro business
    let people get on with their own lives


    I've no idea what "Small but Effective Government" means - how small, how effective, define effective, how do you measure whether it's effective or not? Central Government? Local Government?

    "Fiscal sense" - in terms of reducing the deficit and debt, I'd agree but that won't be achieved by tax cuts but a mixture of tax rises and spending cuts so which taxes get raised, what gets cut? Are we looking to have the public finances in surplus or are we aiming to start paying back the debt? What about the increased defence spending everyone seems to want to deal with a Russian military threat which looks a shade exaggerated?

    "Pro Business"? I'd prefer pro consumer and certainly much more stringent regulation on some of the companies owning our utilities and some of the larger service companies - pro small business, yes, reasonable to a point.

    "Let people get on with their lives" - how are people not able to do that? What is it people can't do they'd like to do? Should we, like the Germans, abolish motorway speed limits so people can drive as fast as they like? Regulatory checks on gamblers? Certainly divisive but not perhaps the apocolyptic scenario some would suggest.

    Are you alright? Why have you posted three bullet points of your own making, then followed it with big long arguments demanding that someone explain your own bullet points?
    No, they are @Alanbrooke bullet points.
    But Stodge's failure to blockquote or attribute led to Luckyguy's understandable confusion tbf.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @RobDotHutton

    "Let me take you to defeat, or I'll take you to defeat!"


    LOL that's an amusing final line.

    However the threat is as hollow as when Boris tried the same thing "don't move against me or there'll be an election" didn't work then, why would it work now?
    It's nonsense though. Sunak won't call an election any time soon for all the reasons we've rehearsed (but mainly, polls). If he was thinking of it, he wouldn't have ruled May out - which more than anything is what gave this talk legs because it's given it space in which to 'work'.

    But if they did move against him, it's questionable whether he'd have the authority to request an election and at the very least would put the Palace in a very difficult position of either being complicit in Sunak's constitutional dodginess or refusing an election more than 4 years into a parliament.
    Well we really need an election now to clear the air and the public are clearly yearning for change and a Labour government, so if Sunak did request a dissolution, hopefully the King and the Palace would facilitate that.

    It's not going to happen though.
    I'm glad you've found a party you feel comfortable with.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Disqualified from driving for 5 years.

    If you use a vehicle as a weapon, or cause death by dangerous driving, it should be an automatic life ban.
    Indeed

    Also he did this

    “Mistry also collided head-on with another vehicle travelling in the opposite direction, causing serious injuries to the front passenger of the car. They were taken by ambulance to Milton Keynes university hospital.”

    He nearly killed TWO people, and one of them was an attempted murder

    He will be out within 2 years with that ludicrously lenient sentence. I hope the Crown appeals and he gets ten years
    One for the legal chaps - why wasn’t he charged with attempted murder?
    Yes quite

    If you repeatedly do an extremely violent thing to a person, in the certain knowledge that it might easily kill them, that is attempted murder. How can it not be?!

    Google says the punishment for attempted murder is between 3 years and life, and given that he very nearly did kill his victim AND he seriously injured another surely he should be looking at ten years plus?

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814

    Carnyx said:

    isam said:

    What is going on here?

    Dear #BBCVerify, is the BBC telling fibs about being in Islamabad? The same bus is on loop in the background. Is this disinformation?


    https://x.com/darrengrimes_/status/1769732333895086340?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    So BBC Scotland's every report with a pic of Glasgow or Edinburgh in the background was filmed in British Museum Tube Station, is your inference?
    British Museum station closed in 1933, it was replaced by building Central Line platforms at Holborn (hitherto Piccadilly Line only).
    That's what you think; it's now part of the Deep State, apparently. (I wouldn't know myself.)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412

    stodge said:

    We are told this is the Conservative voter's "wish list":

    Small but effective government
    fiscal sense
    pro business
    let people get on with their own lives


    I've no idea what "Small but Effective Government" means - how small, how effective, define effective, how do you measure whether it's effective or not? Central Government? Local Government?

    "Fiscal sense" - in terms of reducing the deficit and debt, I'd agree but that won't be achieved by tax cuts but a mixture of tax rises and spending cuts so which taxes get raised, what gets cut? Are we looking to have the public finances in surplus or are we aiming to start paying back the debt? What about the increased defence spending everyone seems to want to deal with a Russian military threat which looks a shade exaggerated?

    "Pro Business"? I'd prefer pro consumer and certainly much more stringent regulation on some of the companies owning our utilities and some of the larger service companies - pro small business, yes, reasonable to a point.

    "Let people get on with their lives" - how are people not able to do that? What is it people can't do they'd like to do? Should we, like the Germans, abolish motorway speed limits so people can drive as fast as they like? Regulatory checks on gamblers? Certainly divisive but not perhaps the apocolyptic scenario some would suggest.

    Are you alright? Why have you posted three bullet points of your own making, then followed it with big long arguments demanding that someone explain your own bullet points?
    No, they are @Alanbrooke bullet points.
    But Stodge's failure to blockquote or attribute led to Luckyguy's understandable confusion tbf.
    I see - I take it back and as you were.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    Scott_xP said:

    @RobDotHutton

    "Let me take you to defeat, or I'll take you to defeat!"


    LOL that's an amusing final line.

    However the threat is as hollow as when Boris tried the same thing "don't move against me or there'll be an election" didn't work then, why would it work now?
    It's nonsense though. Sunak won't call an election any time soon for all the reasons we've rehearsed (but mainly, polls). If he was thinking of it, he wouldn't have ruled May out - which more than anything is what gave this talk legs because it's given it space in which to 'work'.

    But if they did move against him, it's questionable whether he'd have the authority to request an election and at the very least would put the Palace in a very difficult position of either being complicit in Sunak's constitutional dodginess or refusing an election more than 4 years into a parliament.
    I don't think the Palace would have grounds for refusal if the sitting PM asked for a dissolution. The fact that some of his MPs didn't want one is irrelevant - that must often be the case at dissolutions.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,401

    stodge said:

    We are told this is the Conservative voter's "wish list":

    Small but effective government
    fiscal sense
    pro business
    let people get on with their own lives


    I've no idea what "Small but Effective Government" means - how small, how effective, define effective, how do you measure whether it's effective or not? Central Government? Local Government?

    "Fiscal sense" - in terms of reducing the deficit and debt, I'd agree but that won't be achieved by tax cuts but a mixture of tax rises and spending cuts so which taxes get raised, what gets cut? Are we looking to have the public finances in surplus or are we aiming to start paying back the debt? What about the increased defence spending everyone seems to want to deal with a Russian military threat which looks a shade exaggerated?

    "Pro Business"? I'd prefer pro consumer and certainly much more stringent regulation on some of the companies owning our utilities and some of the larger service companies - pro small business, yes, reasonable to a point.

    "Let people get on with their lives" - how are people not able to do that? What is it people can't do they'd like to do? Should we, like the Germans, abolish motorway speed limits so people can drive as fast as they like? Regulatory checks on gamblers? Certainly divisive but not perhaps the apocolyptic scenario some would suggest.

    Too many things to answer in a post, I simply indicate the direction of travel we need. There are no overnight solutions where we are, it will take at least a decade to get back on our feet.
    My ideas on reducing worse-than-useless process, and making government more productive and consumer friendly could be seen as meat for either party.
    Yes. We could ask why HMG needs nearly 6 million employees at a time when the real economy needs a bigger workforce. Or why we need to load young people up with loads of debt at university when entering the workforce will serve us all better.

    They all they want to make the "difficult decisions" but none of them do.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Disqualified from driving for 5 years.

    If you use a vehicle as a weapon, or cause death by dangerous driving, it should be an automatic life ban.
    Indeed

    Also he did this

    “Mistry also collided head-on with another vehicle travelling in the opposite direction, causing serious injuries to the front passenger of the car. They were taken by ambulance to Milton Keynes university hospital.”

    He nearly killed TWO people, and one of them was an attempted murder

    He will be out within 2 years with that ludicrously lenient sentence. I hope the Crown appeals and he gets ten years
    One for the legal chaps - why wasn’t he charged with attempted murder?
    If it were a knife, for example... there is a bit of a blind spot in the courts/police/CPS when it comes to stuff like this.
    All motorists who have a certain attitude to those tedious externalities?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,274
    edited March 18

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @RobDotHutton

    "Let me take you to defeat, or I'll take you to defeat!"


    LOL that's an amusing final line.

    However the threat is as hollow as when Boris tried the same thing "don't move against me or there'll be an election" didn't work then, why would it work now?
    It's nonsense though. Sunak won't call an election any time soon for all the reasons we've rehearsed (but mainly, polls). If he was thinking of it, he wouldn't have ruled May out - which more than anything is what gave this talk legs because it's given it space in which to 'work'.

    But if they did move against him, it's questionable whether he'd have the authority to request an election and at the very least would put the Palace in a very difficult position of either being complicit in Sunak's constitutional dodginess or refusing an election more than 4 years into a parliament.
    Well we really need an election now to clear the air and the public are clearly yearning for change and a Labour government, so if Sunak did request a dissolution, hopefully the King and the Palace would facilitate that.

    It's not going to happen though.
    I'm glad you've found a party you feel comfortable with.
    The Tories have had a good run but it's time for a change. It's inconceivable the Conservatives could have another five years in power after the way they've fallen apart in the 2019-2024 Parliament.

    Not that I think Labour will be up to much. In fact I personally think Labour will probably be a one term government but they do deserve their shot at government.

    And that's clearly where the public is too.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814
    edited March 18

    stodge said:

    We are told this is the Conservative voter's "wish list":

    Small but effective government
    fiscal sense
    pro business
    let people get on with their own lives


    I've no idea what "Small but Effective Government" means - how small, how effective, define effective, how do you measure whether it's effective or not? Central Government? Local Government?

    "Fiscal sense" - in terms of reducing the deficit and debt, I'd agree but that won't be achieved by tax cuts but a mixture of tax rises and spending cuts so which taxes get raised, what gets cut? Are we looking to have the public finances in surplus or are we aiming to start paying back the debt? What about the increased defence spending everyone seems to want to deal with a Russian military threat which looks a shade exaggerated?

    "Pro Business"? I'd prefer pro consumer and certainly much more stringent regulation on some of the companies owning our utilities and some of the larger service companies - pro small business, yes, reasonable to a point.

    "Let people get on with their lives" - how are people not able to do that? What is it people can't do they'd like to do? Should we, like the Germans, abolish motorway speed limits so people can drive as fast as they like? Regulatory checks on gamblers? Certainly divisive but not perhaps the apocolyptic scenario some would suggest.

    Too many things to answer in a post, I simply indicate the direction of travel we need. There are no overnight solutions where we are, it will take at least a decade to get back on our feet.
    My ideas on reducing worse-than-useless process, and making government more productive and consumer friendly could be seen as meat for either party.
    Yes. We could ask why HMG needs nearly 6 million employees at a time when the real economy needs a bigger workforce. Or why we need to load young people up with loads of debt at university when entering the workforce will serve us all better.

    They all they want to make the "difficult decisions" but none of them do.
    Nice to know that you don't think teachers in state schools, and health workers, are doing real jobs. Or the armed forces, or the police.
  • Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Disqualified from driving for 5 years.

    If you use a vehicle as a weapon, or cause death by dangerous driving, it should be an automatic life ban.
    Indeed

    Also he did this

    “Mistry also collided head-on with another vehicle travelling in the opposite direction, causing serious injuries to the front passenger of the car. They were taken by ambulance to Milton Keynes university hospital.”

    He nearly killed TWO people, and one of them was an attempted murder

    He will be out within 2 years with that ludicrously lenient sentence. I hope the Crown appeals and he gets ten years
    One for the legal chaps - why wasn’t he charged with attempted murder?
    If it were a knife, for example... there is a bit of a blind spot in the courts/police/CPS when it comes to stuff like this.
    All motorists who have a certain attitude to those tedious externalities?
    It's not an externality if it's deliberate.

    Attempted murder should be prosecuted as such.
  • As someone who rides a motorcycle almost every day, I despair at this. Deliberate attempts to kill bikers happen far, far too often now. Almost exactly a year ago there was this:

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/road-rage-pensioner-69-chases-29485807

    If you deliberately try to run someone off the road the charge should be attempted murder, with a commensurably lengthy sentence. And a permanent driving ban by default. These nutters should never be allowed behind the wheel of a car under any circumstances.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814

    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Disqualified from driving for 5 years.

    If you use a vehicle as a weapon, or cause death by dangerous driving, it should be an automatic life ban.
    Indeed

    Also he did this

    “Mistry also collided head-on with another vehicle travelling in the opposite direction, causing serious injuries to the front passenger of the car. They were taken by ambulance to Milton Keynes university hospital.”

    He nearly killed TWO people, and one of them was an attempted murder

    He will be out within 2 years with that ludicrously lenient sentence. I hope the Crown appeals and he gets ten years
    One for the legal chaps - why wasn’t he charged with attempted murder?
    If it were a knife, for example... there is a bit of a blind spot in the courts/police/CPS when it comes to stuff like this.
    All motorists who have a certain attitude to those tedious externalities?
    It's not an externality if it's deliberate.

    Attempted murder should be prosecuted as such.
    Motorists who knowingly pollute the environment not an externality?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,214

    Scott_xP said:

    @RobDotHutton

    "Let me take you to defeat, or I'll take you to defeat!"


    LOL that's an amusing final line.

    However the threat is as hollow as when Boris tried the same thing "don't move against me or there'll be an election" didn't work then, why would it work now?
    Two reasons, that may or may not add up to enough.

    First, trying for an election in 2022 would have been taking the piss. Now, we're in the last 9 months or so of this Parliament, it would be a normal election time. If Rishi went to the Palace to ask for an election, it would be harder to say no.

    Second is the difference between Rishi's problems and those of Boris- or any other of his predecessors. Johnson was in trouble (and eventually went) because his personal actions were bringing the government into disrepute. Partygate, Lyingaboutpartygategate, Pinchergate. Calling an election to short circuit that wasn't really on. Meanwhile, all the other exploded Prime Ministers of recent years- Cameron, May, Truss- went because of obvious catastrophic failure of a core part of their policy. None of them could even limp on with credibility.

    Sunak is different. He's rubbish at Prime Ministering, and his policy agenda doesn't add up to much, but he's still capable of limping. For Conservative MPs to keep playing Spin The Bottle to choose a new leader every couple of years is just self-indulgent.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Disqualified from driving for 5 years.

    If you use a vehicle as a weapon, or cause death by dangerous driving, it should be an automatic life ban.
    Indeed

    Also he did this

    “Mistry also collided head-on with another vehicle travelling in the opposite direction, causing serious injuries to the front passenger of the car. They were taken by ambulance to Milton Keynes university hospital.”

    He nearly killed TWO people, and one of them was an attempted murder

    He will be out within 2 years with that ludicrously lenient sentence. I hope the Crown appeals and he gets ten years
    One for the legal chaps - why wasn’t he charged with attempted murder?
    If it were a knife, for example... there is a bit of a blind spot in the courts/police/CPS when it comes to stuff like this.
    All motorists who have a certain attitude to those tedious externalities?
    Twitter is claiming that the law does not recognise an attempted homicide if you use a vehicle. Which, if true, is bloody stupid. A car is clearly a dangerous thing if used with intent, as much as a knife, a hammer or an XL Bully

    But Twitter may be wrong: I understand this is not unknown
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,401
    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    We are told this is the Conservative voter's "wish list":

    Small but effective government
    fiscal sense
    pro business
    let people get on with their own lives


    I've no idea what "Small but Effective Government" means - how small, how effective, define effective, how do you measure whether it's effective or not? Central Government? Local Government?

    "Fiscal sense" - in terms of reducing the deficit and debt, I'd agree but that won't be achieved by tax cuts but a mixture of tax rises and spending cuts so which taxes get raised, what gets cut? Are we looking to have the public finances in surplus or are we aiming to start paying back the debt? What about the increased defence spending everyone seems to want to deal with a Russian military threat which looks a shade exaggerated?

    "Pro Business"? I'd prefer pro consumer and certainly much more stringent regulation on some of the companies owning our utilities and some of the larger service companies - pro small business, yes, reasonable to a point.

    "Let people get on with their lives" - how are people not able to do that? What is it people can't do they'd like to do? Should we, like the Germans, abolish motorway speed limits so people can drive as fast as they like? Regulatory checks on gamblers? Certainly divisive but not perhaps the apocolyptic scenario some would suggest.

    Too many things to answer in a post, I simply indicate the direction of travel we need. There are no overnight solutions where we are, it will take at least a decade to get back on our feet.
    My ideas on reducing worse-than-useless process, and making government more productive and consumer friendly could be seen as meat for either party.
    Yes. We could ask why HMG needs nearly 6 million employees at a time when the real economy needs a bigger workforce. Or why we need to load young people up with loads of debt at university when entering the workforce will serve us all better.

    They all they want to make the "difficult decisions" but none of them do.
    Nice to know that you don't think teachers in state schools, and health workers, are doing real jobs. Or the armed forces, or the police.
    I was talking about the 6 million people in Scotland.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @RobDotHutton

    "Let me take you to defeat, or I'll take you to defeat!"


    LOL that's an amusing final line.

    However the threat is as hollow as when Boris tried the same thing "don't move against me or there'll be an election" didn't work then, why would it work now?
    It's nonsense though. Sunak won't call an election any time soon for all the reasons we've rehearsed (but mainly, polls). If he was thinking of it, he wouldn't have ruled May out - which more than anything is what gave this talk legs because it's given it space in which to 'work'.

    But if they did move against him, it's questionable whether he'd have the authority to request an election and at the very least would put the Palace in a very difficult position of either being complicit in Sunak's constitutional dodginess or refusing an election more than 4 years into a parliament.
    Well we really need an election now to clear the air and the public are clearly yearning for change and a Labour government, so if Sunak did request a dissolution, hopefully the King and the Palace would facilitate that.

    It's not going to happen though.
    I'm glad you've found a party you feel comfortable with.
    The Tories have had a good run but it's time for a change. It's inconceivable the Conservatives could have another five years in power after the way they've fallen apart in the 2019-2024 Parliament.

    Not that I think Labour will be up to much. In fact I personally think Labour will probably be a one term government but they do deserve their shot at government.

    And that's clearly where the public is too.
    Meh. You're entitled to your opinion.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,986
    @PolitlcsUK
    🚨 NEW: Tory MPs claim 40 letters of no confidence in Rishi Sunak have been submitted - just 13 short of the required 53 for a confidence vote

    Senior Tory MP: "They will move against him this week"

    [
    @christopherhope
    ]
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,274
    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK
    🚨 NEW: Tory MPs claim 40 letters of no confidence in Rishi Sunak have been submitted - just 13 short of the required 53 for a confidence vote

    Senior Tory MP: "They will move against him this week"

    [
    @christopherhope
    ]

    #HereWeGoAgain
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,643
    edited March 18
    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Disqualified from driving for 5 years.

    If you use a vehicle as a weapon, or cause death by dangerous driving, it should be an automatic life ban.
    Indeed

    Also he did this

    “Mistry also collided head-on with another vehicle travelling in the opposite direction, causing serious injuries to the front passenger of the car. They were taken by ambulance to Milton Keynes university hospital.”

    He nearly killed TWO people, and one of them was an attempted murder

    He will be out within 2 years with that ludicrously lenient sentence. I hope the Crown appeals and he gets ten years
    One for the legal chaps - why wasn’t he charged with attempted murder?
    If it were a knife, for example... there is a bit of a blind spot in the courts/police/CPS when it comes to stuff like this.
    All motorists who have a certain attitude to those tedious externalities?
    But it's the police and sometimes courts who often deal with the horrific aftermath of road collisions. It's one of the few traumatic ways in which people die or are seriously injured nowadays (suicide attempts and drug/alcohol overdoses being the others). Weird.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    edited March 18
    As noted earlier. We must yearn for the near future when only 5 or 6 letters will be needed for permalaughs.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,837
    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    We are told this is the Conservative voter's "wish list":

    Small but effective government
    fiscal sense
    pro business
    let people get on with their own lives


    I've no idea what "Small but Effective Government" means - how small, how effective, define effective, how do you measure whether it's effective or not? Central Government? Local Government?

    "Fiscal sense" - in terms of reducing the deficit and debt, I'd agree but that won't be achieved by tax cuts but a mixture of tax rises and spending cuts so which taxes get raised, what gets cut? Are we looking to have the public finances in surplus or are we aiming to start paying back the debt? What about the increased defence spending everyone seems to want to deal with a Russian military threat which looks a shade exaggerated?

    "Pro Business"? I'd prefer pro consumer and certainly much more stringent regulation on some of the companies owning our utilities and some of the larger service companies - pro small business, yes, reasonable to a point.

    "Let people get on with their lives" - how are people not able to do that? What is it people can't do they'd like to do? Should we, like the Germans, abolish motorway speed limits so people can drive as fast as they like? Regulatory checks on gamblers? Certainly divisive but not perhaps the apocolyptic scenario some would suggest.

    Too many things to answer in a post, I simply indicate the direction of travel we need. There are no overnight solutions where we are, it will take at least a decade to get back on our feet.
    My ideas on reducing worse-than-useless process, and making government more productive and consumer friendly could be seen as meat for either party.
    Yes. We could ask why HMG needs nearly 6 million employees at a time when the real economy needs a bigger workforce. Or why we need to load young people up with loads of debt at university when entering the workforce will serve us all better.

    They all they want to make the "difficult decisions" but none of them do.
    Nice to know that you don't think teachers in state schools, and health workers, are doing real jobs. Or the armed forces, or the police.
    Don't forget all those dreadful diversity and inclusion officers whom the Chancellor has identified as being an important driver of the impending collapse in England's entire system of local government.

    Getting rid of them all would've saved 0.02% of the budget of Birmingham City Council. Or 0.00% of that of stricken Thurrock. Transformative sums, I'm sure we'll all agree.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,643
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Disqualified from driving for 5 years.

    If you use a vehicle as a weapon, or cause death by dangerous driving, it should be an automatic life ban.
    Indeed

    Also he did this

    “Mistry also collided head-on with another vehicle travelling in the opposite direction, causing serious injuries to the front passenger of the car. They were taken by ambulance to Milton Keynes university hospital.”

    He nearly killed TWO people, and one of them was an attempted murder

    He will be out within 2 years with that ludicrously lenient sentence. I hope the Crown appeals and he gets ten years
    One for the legal chaps - why wasn’t he charged with attempted murder?
    If it were a knife, for example... there is a bit of a blind spot in the courts/police/CPS when it comes to stuff like this.
    All motorists who have a certain attitude to those tedious externalities?
    Twitter is claiming that the law does not recognise an attempted homicide if you use a vehicle. Which, if true, is bloody stupid. A car is clearly a dangerous thing if used with intent, as much as a knife, a hammer or an XL Bully

    But Twitter may be wrong: I understand this is not unknown
    It's a well known phenomenon.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/17/motonormativity-britons-more-accepting-driving-related-risk
  • Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Disqualified from driving for 5 years.

    If you use a vehicle as a weapon, or cause death by dangerous driving, it should be an automatic life ban.
    Indeed

    Also he did this

    “Mistry also collided head-on with another vehicle travelling in the opposite direction, causing serious injuries to the front passenger of the car. They were taken by ambulance to Milton Keynes university hospital.”

    He nearly killed TWO people, and one of them was an attempted murder

    He will be out within 2 years with that ludicrously lenient sentence. I hope the Crown appeals and he gets ten years
    One for the legal chaps - why wasn’t he charged with attempted murder?
    If it were a knife, for example... there is a bit of a blind spot in the courts/police/CPS when it comes to stuff like this.
    All motorists who have a certain attitude to those tedious externalities?
    It's not an externality if it's deliberate.

    Attempted murder should be prosecuted as such.
    Motorists who knowingly pollute the environment not an externality?
    No, there's a difference between a secondary effect that you know about and a primary intention.

    If the intention is to get from A to B and something else happens as a consequence that's an externality.

    If the intention is to attempt to kill someone, then that's not.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,643
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Disqualified from driving for 5 years.

    If you use a vehicle as a weapon, or cause death by dangerous driving, it should be an automatic life ban.
    Indeed

    Also he did this

    “Mistry also collided head-on with another vehicle travelling in the opposite direction, causing serious injuries to the front passenger of the car. They were taken by ambulance to Milton Keynes university hospital.”

    He nearly killed TWO people, and one of them was an attempted murder

    He will be out within 2 years with that ludicrously lenient sentence. I hope the Crown appeals and he gets ten years
    One for the legal chaps - why wasn’t he charged with attempted murder?
    If it were a knife, for example... there is a bit of a blind spot in the courts/police/CPS when it comes to stuff like this.
    All motorists who have a certain attitude to those tedious externalities?
    Twitter is claiming that the law does not recognise an attempted homicide if you use a vehicle. Which, if true, is bloody stupid. A car is clearly a dangerous thing if used with intent, as much as a knife, a hammer or an XL Bully

    But Twitter may be wrong: I understand this is not unknown
    Good point on XL Bullies - this guy in Newcastle was arrested for murder by dog:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/oct/04/man-killed-by-dog-believed-to-be-xl-bully-near-sunderland
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392
    Nigelb said:

    Omnium said:

    Nigelb said:

    Omnium said:

    Nigelb said:

    Here’s one for those who think the Monty Hall problem is obvious.

    Jack the researcher takes a coin from his pocket and decides to flip it, say, one hundred times. As he is curious about what outcome typically follows a heads, whenever he flips a heads he commits to writing down the outcome of the next flip on the scrap of paper next to him. Upon completing the one hundred flips, Jack of course expects the proportion of heads written on the scrap of paper to be one-half. Shockingly, Jack is wrong. For a fair coin, the expected proportion of heads is smaller than one-half...
    https://arxiv.org/pdf/1902.01265.pdf

    I think this is wrong. The effect illustrated at the start of the paper for example excludes a perfectly sensible set from the calculation. TTT and TTH - so you finish up with 5/10 - 50% as expected.
    No, it doesn’t.
    See table 1, which includes them as possible outcomes.
    Sorry, should exclude. They're outcomes, but the researcher never gets to make his observation.
    That’s the point.
    .. As he is curious about what outcome typically follows a heads, whenever he flips a heads he commits to writing down the outcome of the next flip on the scrap of paper next to him..

    The example of three coin flips is a fairly trivial one - but it’s illustrative of the more subtle effect in longer sequences.
    They go on to demonstrate that ‘hot streaks’ are therefore statistically quite likely, precisely because of this kind of observational bias - something which statisticians had previously denied.
    Stephen J Gould wrote about the statistics of 'hit hands' in basketball. The idea that when a player is on a streak they are 'hit' is more just that better players have longer streaks in average, so it looks like they manifest streaks more.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    If you repeatedly ram someone with a car you are highly likely to kill them. Just as if you repeatedly smash someone in the head with a claw hammer

    What’s the difference?

    I you try to kill someone with a hammer and come mightily close and, as you do that, in your frenzy you also smash someone else in the head giving them critical injuries you should not get a jail sentence where you are out within 2 years

    Truly bizarre
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    Leon said:

    A pleasant enough beach. Not quite the Maldives, or Koh Rong Samloem

    However, what sets this apart is that right behind me the jungle begins. Actual proper jungle with monkeys and everything

    Indeed to get to my thatched bungalow we passed a lagoon and the driver casually said “oh there are caimans in there”

    OMG caimans

    I’ve always wanted to see one. Along with polar bears and Komodo dragon they are the last massive predator I have not seen that I really want to see

    I may have to camp by the lake


    Was on a narrow boat once that a caiman went for from underneath. Bit of a racy moment. If you go out at night with a torch, watch out for the pairs of red eyes staring back.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK
    🚨 NEW: Tory MPs claim 40 letters of no confidence in Rishi Sunak have been submitted - just 13 short of the required 53 for a confidence vote

    Senior Tory MP: "They will move against him this week"

    [
    @christopherhope
    ]

    Because the voters love a divided party.
This discussion has been closed.