According to Steve Richards, a politician out of step with the Party on something important will not become leader. The example he gave was Ken Clarke, whose Europhilia did not mesh with the party. From this I assume Penny's pro-trans ness, albeit rowed back, will similarly disqualify her. Other examples I have thought of include Peter Walker (one-nation Tory in the Thatcher years) and Denis Healey (pro-military Labour in the Benn years). Given this and her lacklustre speech history, I would be very surprised if they can get her past the members.
Can't she just lie that she is in step.
Worked for SKS
I think they went for SKS because they wanted to win. I'm not sure the Tory party, at bottom, want to win. They don't know how to do politics any more and are a bit mizz. It's the equivalent of sulky teens whining about the world but never going outside. Casino is right about the upturn and in normal circs it would be enough but they don't seem to want it enough.
Suspect an improving economy will do Team 2024 about as much good as it did Team 1997; not zero but not enough to change things.
There's clearly something not right with the Conservatives at the moment, which means they really need a long holiday somewhere quiet. It's not quite that they don't want to win (or this conversation wouldn't be happening)... is it more that they have forgotten why they want to win?
Apart from not being Rishi, what would Penny do with six months of running the country?
According to Steve Richards, a politician out of step with the Party on something important will not become leader. The example he gave was Ken Clarke, whose Europhilia did not mesh with the party. From this I assume Penny's pro-trans ness, albeit rowed back, will similarly disqualify her. Other examples I have thought of include Peter Walker (one-nation Tory in the Thatcher years) and Denis Healey (pro-military Labour in the Benn years). Given this and her lacklustre speech history, I would be very surprised if they can get her past the members.
Can't she just lie that she is in step.
Worked for SKS
I think they went for SKS because they wanted to win. I'm not sure the Tory party, at bottom, want to win. They don't know how to do politics any more and are a bit mizz. It's the equivalent of sulky teens whining about the world but never going outside. Casino is right about the upturn and in normal circs it would be enough but they don't seem to want it enough.
Suspect an improving economy will do Team 2024 about as much good as it did Team 1997; not zero but not enough to change things.
There's clearly something not right with the Conservatives at the moment, which means they really need a long holiday somewhere quiet. It's not quite that they don't want to win (or this conversation wouldn't be happening)... is it more that they have forgotten why they want to win?
Apart from not being Rishi, what would Penny do with six months of running the country?
They adopted Blairism and it has screwed up the economy.
Flattering scoreline. Italy have won two and drawn one.
If they'd got the kick against France they'd be near the top of the board.
Incredible.
Yes. And they nearly beat England too
In a few years Italy might finally be challenging for the title
It’s a young side, Quesada is a great influence on the team. They can only improve at this stage. I think you’re right. I cannot remember them ever only losing twice in the six nations before.
Only a few years back the suggestion was replace them with Georgia.
Maybe it’s time to expand it to Georgia and… Portugal? Someone else? Eight nations. 7 games every winter. Exciting!
Surely Mordaunt is the very worst candidate the Tories could pick. Reform and Farage would portray it as a return to puffy-wuffy Cameronism thus ending any Red Wall hopes, and it would completely destroy the Tories' cultural-war attacks on Labour, what with Mordaunt being Mrs Lord God Queen Woke. Can't see any upsides.
It might be the way to build back a centre right coalition *after* an election (if she can face down the further right) but I don't see it helping much before hand, for the reasons you give. The centre isn't coming back just yet.
Surely Mordaunt is the very worst candidate the Tories could pick. Reform and Farage would portray it as a return to puffy-wuffy Cameronism thus ending any Red Wall hopes, and it would completely destroy the Tories' cultural-war attacks on Labour, what with Mordaunt being Mrs Lord God Queen Woke. Can't see any upsides.
It might be the way to build back a centre right coalition *after* an election (if she can face down the further right) but I don't see it helping much before hand, for the reasons you give. The centre isn't coming back just yet.
Perhaps, if it is "the right" pushing for Mordaunt, the game is to nobble her and give a free run for their own post GE.
According to Steve Richards, a politician out of step with the Party on something important will not become leader. The example he gave was Ken Clarke, whose Europhilia did not mesh with the party. From this I assume Penny's pro-trans ness, albeit rowed back, will similarly disqualify her. Other examples I have thought of include Peter Walker (one-nation Tory in the Thatcher years) and Denis Healey (pro-military Labour in the Benn years). Given this and her lacklustre speech history, I would be very surprised if they can get her past the members.
I'm unsure the Clarke example is a good one for the party. He would have made a far better leader than IDS. (Clarke did, of course, win the MPs third ballot- it was the membership that voted IDS in)
It’s quite obvious that membership voting doesn’t work. It’s a flaw in British democracy that has delivered a series of damaging duds.
It only does if you have mass-membership.
In that sense, it's the opposite of mass-immigration but with a consistent theme at its core: numbers are crucial.
I can's see Tory MPs crowning Mordaunt as Tory leader unopposed by coronation a la Howard 2005 if Sunak lost a VONC or resigned. Remember she only came 3rd amongst Tory MPs last year behind Sunak and Truss.
Polls of Conservative members show they prefer Badenoch to both Mordaunt and Sunak, so there is also the risk that is Tory MPs did topple Sunak they would end up with the hard right ERG's preferred candidate as PM. Who would perhaps win back a few Reform voters but poll even worse with the median UK swing voter than either Sunak or Mordaunt and leak even more to Labour and the LDs
Surely Mordaunt is the very worst candidate the Tories could pick. Reform and Farage would portray it as a return to puffy-wuffy Cameronism thus ending any Red Wall hopes, and it would completely destroy the Tories' cultural-war attacks on Labour, what with Mordaunt being Mrs Lord God Queen Woke. Can't see any upsides.
Mordaunt’s chance, if she get’s one, will be after the Tories go even further to the right under Braverman or JRM, discover it has made them even less electable, and move back towards the centre. She is young enough for that to be after the 2028/9 election.
I can's see Tory MPs crowning Mordaunt as Tory leader unopposed by coronation a la Howard 2005 if Sunak lost a VONC or resigned. Remember she only came 3rd amongst Tory MPs last year behind Sunak and Truss.
Polls of Conservative members show they prefer Badenoch to both Mordaunt and Sunak, so there is also the risk that is Tory MPs did topple Sunak they would end up with the hard right ERG's preferred candidate as PM. Who would perhaps win back a few Reform voters but poll even worse with the median UK swing voter than either Sunak or Mordaunt and leak even more to Labour and the LDs
Imagine myself as a Tory MP with a majority circa 5-10k....on the personal narcissism front the fact that I am so wonderful and my constituents really love me makes me deludedly think I will buck the trend somewhat. But then I'm hearing on the Door Step that Sunak is a joke and loser, and it's getting worse. So, I'm worried, and I think I am going to lose despite how brilliant I am. Grossly unfair to me.
Then I look at Penny. She's an empty vessel, but she scrubs up well
Flattering scoreline. Italy have won two and drawn one.
If they'd got the kick against France they'd be near the top of the board.
Incredible.
Yes. And they nearly beat England too
In a few years Italy might finally be challenging for the title
It’s a young side, Quesada is a great influence on the team. They can only improve at this stage. I think you’re right. I cannot remember them ever only losing twice in the six nations before.
Only a few years back the suggestion was replace them with Georgia.
Maybe it’s time to expand it to Georgia and… Portugal? Someone else? Eight nations. 7 games every winter. Exciting!
And Tbilisi and Lisbon are both wonderful cities
Rugby has to expand to survive
Two leagues of 4 or 5 teams with promotion and relegation would make it more interesting.
It all smacks of desperation and as I said the other day shades of what happened when Ardern took over from Andrew Little in New Zealand.
The most dangerous time for Sunak is going to be in the immediate aftermath of the May locals - is there going to be a VONC before then? Seems unlikely - the mechanism for a Conservative coup doesn't seem well developed and I suspect a lot of what we're hearing is grumbling from a frightened minority.
Mordaunt's constituency may become more interesting if the Portsmouth Independent Party decide to put up a candidate. They took three seats last year all from the Conservatives reducing the Tories to just eight on the council. The Conservatives are defending five seats this May - four in Mordaunt's constituency. In 2023, two of the seats were won by the Portsmouth Independents, one by Labour and just one remained Conservative.
Imagine myself as a Tory MP with a majority circa 5-10k....on the personal narcissism front the fact that I am so wonderful and my constituents really love me makes me deludedly think I will buck the trend somewhat. But then I'm hearing on the Door Step that Sunak is a joke and loser, and it's getting worse. So, I'm worried, and I think I am going to lose despite how brilliant I am. Grossly unfair to me, but is there someone else?
Then I look at Penny. She's an empty vessel, but she scrubs up reasonably well, and just perhaps. What could be worse? There is no-one else anyways.
This is why I (not a Tory MP) have felt for some weeks now that Penny M will be PM by June.
Sunak will face the worst local results in my memory by a sitting PM facing a GE. It is inconceivable that the Tory MP's will keep him. They (Tory MP's) are a collective of self serving, venomous, unscrupulous, self interested and vain individuals.
Aside, from the pond dwelling Tory MP's, also consider Labour strategists. After Labour gifted the Tories Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn, Labour are desperate to face off with Sunak. They too know on the doorstep that Sunak goes down as well as, let's think back.. as well as Jeremy Corbyn, and maybe even worse.
Do you really think that the Tories are going to gift the Labour Party with Sunak?
Penny M will be PM by the end of June. That is probably the best betting tip that I will ever give here.
They adopted Blairism and it has screwed up the economy.
They need to go back to being conservatives.
They adopted UKIPism and it has screwed up the Country
Other than leaving the EU, which is also Labour party policy, in what way have they adopted UKIPism and how has it screwed up the country?
Leaving the EU is not Labour policy.
Was back in the day. Or the policy of a substantial sector of the party. That’s why Corbyn, who a follower of that sector’s leader was so lukewarm about opposing Brexit in 2017 and indeed 2019.
Flattering scoreline. Italy have won two and drawn one.
If they'd got the kick against France they'd be near the top of the board.
Incredible.
Yes. And they nearly beat England too
In a few years Italy might finally be challenging for the title
It’s a young side, Quesada is a great influence on the team. They can only improve at this stage. I think you’re right. I cannot remember them ever only losing twice in the six nations before.
Only a few years back the suggestion was replace them with Georgia.
Maybe it’s time to expand it to Georgia and… Portugal? Someone else? Eight nations. 7 games every winter. Exciting!
And Tbilisi and Lisbon are both wonderful cities
Rugby has to expand to survive
Two leagues of 4 or 5 teams with promotion and relegation would make it more interesting.
No that would be boring. Six nations means you get at least five games per team and three games every weekend
I’d expand it to eight nations
Relegation seems pretty severe for one bad season.
Any constitutionalists have a view on whether, if Brady tells Sunak I have enough letters, there is anything to stop saying words to the effect of "well, tough shit, I going to see KC and call a May 2nd election".
Does he need to cabinet to approve that? Would (can) KC refuse him?
Yes, he could do it. He's the prime minister. The PM isn't appointed by the parliamentary Tory party. And at that point, there wouldn't have been a VONC in the Commons yet, so he'd still, ahem, command a majority. He wouldn't do it, though. Telling the people you're supposed to be leading that they can do one isn't great leadership. It'd be half tant to him joining the Labour party.
My prediction is that the gap between the announcement of epistolary sufficiency to the appointment of new Tory prime minister will take about 2 days, max. Then it will be Mordaunt who announces the general election. She'd be nuts not to. Half the polling deficit will disappear immediately. The penny will have dropped. She's the missing ingredient. Sunak couldn't win an election for toffees. He's a liability.
There will not be a no confidence vote (whatever happens in May). Sunak will remain Tory leader through to the election in the autumn. The party will then lose very badly.
That concludes this ex cathedra proclamation.
Well experience tells me it is never profitable to disagree with you.
Flattering scoreline. Italy have won two and drawn one.
If they'd got the kick against France they'd be near the top of the board.
Incredible.
Yes. And they nearly beat England too
In a few years Italy might finally be challenging for the title
It’s a young side, Quesada is a great influence on the team. They can only improve at this stage. I think you’re right. I cannot remember them ever only losing twice in the six nations before.
Only a few years back the suggestion was replace them with Georgia.
Maybe it’s time to expand it to Georgia and… Portugal? Someone else? Eight nations. 7 games every winter. Exciting!
And Tbilisi and Lisbon are both wonderful cities
Rugby has to expand to survive
Two leagues of 4 or 5 teams with promotion and relegation would make it more interesting.
Four in each division. Play everyone home and away. More games, and something at stake at the bottom of the table too.
According to Steve Richards, a politician out of step with the Party on something important will not become leader. The example he gave was Ken Clarke, whose Europhilia did not mesh with the party. From this I assume Penny's pro-trans ness, albeit rowed back, will similarly disqualify her. Other examples I have thought of include Peter Walker (one-nation Tory in the Thatcher years) and Denis Healey (pro-military Labour in the Benn years). Given this and her lacklustre speech history, I would be very surprised if they can get her past the members.
Can't she just lie that she is in step.
Worked for SKS
I think they went for SKS because they wanted to win. I'm not sure the Tory party, at bottom, want to win. They don't know how to do politics any more and are a bit mizz. It's the equivalent of sulky teens whining about the world but never going outside. Casino is right about the upturn and in normal circs it would be enough but they don't seem to want it enough.
Suspect an improving economy will do Team 2024 about as much good as it did Team 1997; not zero but not enough to change things.
There's clearly something not right with the Conservatives at the moment, which means they really need a long holiday somewhere quiet. It's not quite that they don't want to win (or this conversation wouldn't be happening)... is it more that they have forgotten why they want to win?
Apart from not being Rishi, what would Penny do with six months of running the country?
They adopted Blairism and it has screwed up the economy.
They need to go back to being conservatives.
Indeed, apart from being softer on Brexit and a bit closer to the EU but still out of it what difference would a Starmer government make to a Sunak government? VAT on school fees, even more woke and maybe spending and taxing and building houses in the greenbelt a bit more but that is about it.
If anything Labour has just moved to the centre with Starmer where the Tories have largely been for the last decade, even Brexit got 52% of the voters behind it. In opposition the Conservatives might move right again as they were post 1997 pre Cameron but they aren't now
Flattering scoreline. Italy have won two and drawn one.
If they'd got the kick against France they'd be near the top of the board.
Incredible.
Yes. And they nearly beat England too
In a few years Italy might finally be challenging for the title
It’s a young side, Quesada is a great influence on the team. They can only improve at this stage. I think you’re right. I cannot remember them ever only losing twice in the six nations before.
Only a few years back the suggestion was replace them with Georgia.
Maybe it’s time to expand it to Georgia and… Portugal? Someone else? Eight nations. 7 games every winter. Exciting!
And Tbilisi and Lisbon are both wonderful cities
Rugby has to expand to survive
Absolutely. But the problem is, like cricket, it means the rich nations sharing the spoils with the smaller nations so it won’t happen. We’ve seen nations like Romania in Rugby and Kenya in cricket already emerge to be overlooked and not had any resources worth talking about funnelled into development.
There will not be a no confidence vote (whatever happens in May). Sunak will remain Tory leader through to the election in the autumn. The party will then lose very badly.
That concludes this ex cathedra proclamation.
If there is a no confidence vote soon, do you think he'd win it? Just checking. I reckon he'd get IDSed to oblivion.
Are we really talking about the the fifth Tory leadership contest in five years?
There really is no hope for them.
Words literally fail me, I cannot conceive of a bigger screw up than trying to replace the Tory leader within a few weeks of the coming general election and expecting that this will work.
Why don´t they just play strip poker for it? Better still they could show the world some dignity and do a Celebrity Masked Singer contest? Maybe they could juggle live hand grenades, while doing the Total Wipe Out course.
If they went ahead with this, I think I would probably put decent money on a Kim Campbell style Tory wipe out.
The country is bust, drowning in shit and generally deeply unhappy and these third rate know nothings are arguing about whose turn it is to lead the rout...
Flattering scoreline. Italy have won two and drawn one.
If they'd got the kick against France they'd be near the top of the board.
Incredible.
Yes. And they nearly beat England too
In a few years Italy might finally be challenging for the title
It’s a young side, Quesada is a great influence on the team. They can only improve at this stage. I think you’re right. I cannot remember them ever only losing twice in the six nations before.
Only a few years back the suggestion was replace them with Georgia.
Maybe it’s time to expand it to Georgia and… Portugal? Someone else? Eight nations. 7 games every winter. Exciting!
And Tbilisi and Lisbon are both wonderful cities
Rugby has to expand to survive
Two leagues of 4 or 5 teams with promotion and relegation would make it more interesting.
No that would be boring. Six nations means you get at least five games per team and three games every weekend
I’d expand it to eight nations
Relegation seems pretty severe for one bad season.
Relegation won’t happen because Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas - all the teams apart from England and France have been through spells over the last 20 years where they could be at risk of relegation and it would blow their financial models so they will never allow it.
The tradition is also very important with people loving their annual trips to Dublin, Rome, Paris and some even like going to Twickenham, Edinburgh and one guy likes going to Cardiff which rules out a decent plan of two leagues of four teams with the top two of each league playing semis then a final and the bottom two being relegated.
It works really well as it is so won’t change. Only option might be following football and having a Euros every four years between the world cups instead of a six nations that year.
There will not be a no confidence vote (whatever happens in May). Sunak will remain Tory leader through to the election in the autumn. The party will then lose very badly.
That concludes this ex cathedra proclamation.
Thought that The Vicar was only PBer authorized by (allegedly) Higher Power to pronounce ex cathedra?
Flattering scoreline. Italy have won two and drawn one.
If they'd got the kick against France they'd be near the top of the board.
Incredible.
Yes. And they nearly beat England too
In a few years Italy might finally be challenging for the title
It’s a young side, Quesada is a great influence on the team. They can only improve at this stage. I think you’re right. I cannot remember them ever only losing twice in the six nations before.
Only a few years back the suggestion was replace them with Georgia.
Maybe it’s time to expand it to Georgia and… Portugal? Someone else? Eight nations. 7 games every winter. Exciting!
And Tbilisi and Lisbon are both wonderful cities
Rugby has to expand to survive
Absolutely. But the problem is, like cricket, it means the rich nations sharing the spoils with the smaller nations so it won’t happen. We’ve seen nations like Romania in Rugby and Kenya in cricket already emerge to be overlooked and not had any resources worth talking about funnelled into development.
If so short sighted. They showed vision in allowing Italy into the tournament. And it is now paying off as Italy become truly competitive - making the whole 6 nations much better. And games in Rome! With 70,000 fans!
Georgians love rugby. Tbilisi is great. They must be allowed in
But you need an even number of teams so add Portugal too. They’re ranked 14 and ahead of Tonga and they will get better. And Lisbon is also great fun
'His school routinely washed uniforms for children whose families didn’t have a washing machine.
The school recently stepped in to help after discovering a pupil begging outside a supermarket and its free breakfast club was “really needed”. But lack of sleep had become another big symptom of poverty – and a barrier to learning.
“We’ve got a lot of kids in homes with not enough beds or a mum sleeping with two or three children,” the head said. Support staff would often take children out of class who weren’t coping because of exhaustion to let them sleep for an hour or two. “Some children are falling asleep in lessons, and not just the little ones,” he said.'
They adopted Blairism and it has screwed up the economy.
They need to go back to being conservatives.
They adopted UKIPism and it has screwed up the Country
Other than leaving the EU, which is also Labour party policy, in what way have they adopted UKIPism and how has it screwed up the country?
Leaving the EU is not Labour policy.
Was back in the day. Or the policy of a substantial sector of the party. That’s why Corbyn, who a follower of that sector’s leader was so lukewarm about opposing Brexit in 2017 and indeed 2019.
Yes indeed. The 70s. Flares, prog rock, chopper bikes, Dirty Leeds ... and Labour more Brexity than the Conservatives.
Reading between the lines the Mordaunt support seems reliant on the 'right' controlling certain policies. So it would be party leader in name only. However,
1) This is PM's only chance of becoming PM.
2) PM pulling off a miracle gives the likes of Suella and Kemi by far their best chance of power. It would be much easier for them to depose PM mid-term and win a Con leadership vote rather than trying to actually win a GE. The electorate is so much more favourable to them in a Con members poll.
So it may just be a possiblity.
You have to feel for poor Mr Sunak. Why didn't he listen to Moon Rabbit?
As has been said elsewhere, it's not easy for incumbent Governments currently.
Just looking at the latest polling from Denmark and there's a 12% swing from the last election with the Government parties down from 50 to 38 and the opposition up from 49 to 61.
The three parties in the coalition, the Social Democrats, Venstre and Moderates are down six, four and two points respectively. The big winners are the Liberal Alliance on the centre right (up seven) and the Socialist People's Party on the left (up six and a half). The populist Denmark Democrats are up a couple of points.
The current polling shows very low numbers for both the Social Democrats and Venstre who were the lead parties of the Arbjeder and Borgerling blocs respectively not so long ago (the Red vs Blue blocs of parties).
Is opined that Penny Mordaunt is NOT a bright penny, eh?
Personally think she's surely smart enough to REFUSE the poisoned challenge of CUP "Leadership" BEFORE the next GE.
WHY would she want help a bunch of BoJo-loving jackasses in her own caucus, squeak through on HER coattails . . . and then make HER the fall-person for THEIR wretched excesses?
I bumped into a neighbour an hour ago. He was carrying large bags of shopping into the house from his car; said he'd had to go into the local Morrisons for the first time in five years as their delivery hadn't arrived.
He looked like he'd just come back from the Somme.
'His school routinely washed uniforms for children whose families didn’t have a washing machine.
The school recently stepped in to help after discovering a pupil begging outside a supermarket and its free breakfast club was “really needed”. But lack of sleep had become another big symptom of poverty – and a barrier to learning.
“We’ve got a lot of kids in homes with not enough beds or a mum sleeping with two or three children,” the head said. Support staff would often take children out of class who weren’t coping because of exhaustion to let them sleep for an hour or two. “Some children are falling asleep in lessons, and not just the little ones,” he said.'
The obvious answer is to make every school a boarding school so every kid gets fed, gets a bed, discipline and support and all parents have time to work. Massive initial cost but imagine the benefits. This isn’t entirely serious but maybe it is.
I bumped into a neighbour an hour ago. He was carrying large bags of shopping into the house from his car; said he'd had to go into the local Morrisons for the first time in five years as their delivery hadn't arrived.
He looked like he'd just come back from the Somme.
There will not be a no confidence vote (whatever happens in May). Sunak will remain Tory leader through to the election in the autumn. The party will then lose very badly.
That concludes this ex cathedra proclamation.
If there is a no confidence vote soon, do you think he'd win it? Just checking. I reckon he'd get IDSed to oblivion.
As of now, we know that there aren't fiftysomething MPs who feel strongly enough about the matter to write a letter. That's all anyone, except Graham Brady, knows.
Actually, the 15 percent rule is a neat one if you are a beleaguered leader. It's quite a steep climb from there to toppling an incumbent in not much time.
IDS lost his, but May and Johnson both won theirs. They were the sort of wins that holed them below the waterline, but Sunak doesn't have to hang on that much longer anyway.
'His school routinely washed uniforms for children whose families didn’t have a washing machine.
The school recently stepped in to help after discovering a pupil begging outside a supermarket and its free breakfast club was “really needed”. But lack of sleep had become another big symptom of poverty – and a barrier to learning.
“We’ve got a lot of kids in homes with not enough beds or a mum sleeping with two or three children,” the head said. Support staff would often take children out of class who weren’t coping because of exhaustion to let them sleep for an hour or two. “Some children are falling asleep in lessons, and not just the little ones,” he said.'
Too many people having too many children they can't afford to look after properly.
Flattering scoreline. Italy have won two and drawn one.
If they'd got the kick against France they'd be near the top of the board.
Incredible.
Yes. And they nearly beat England too
In a few years Italy might finally be challenging for the title
It’s a young side, Quesada is a great influence on the team. They can only improve at this stage. I think you’re right. I cannot remember them ever only losing twice in the six nations before.
Only a few years back the suggestion was replace them with Georgia.
Maybe it’s time to expand it to Georgia and… Portugal? Someone else? Eight nations. 7 games every winter. Exciting!
And Tbilisi and Lisbon are both wonderful cities
Rugby has to expand to survive
Two leagues of 4 or 5 teams with promotion and relegation would make it more interesting.
No that would be boring. Six nations means you get at least five games per team and three games every weekend
I’d expand it to eight nations
Relegation seems pretty severe for one bad season.
Relegation won’t happen because Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas - all the teams apart from England and France have been through spells over the last 20 years where they could be at risk of relegation and it would blow their financial models so they will never allow it.
The tradition is also very important with people loving their annual trips to Dublin, Rome, Paris and some even like going to Twickenham, Edinburgh and one guy likes going to Cardiff which rules out a decent plan of two leagues of four teams with the top two of each league playing semis then a final and the bottom two being relegated.
It works really well as it is so won’t change. Only option might be following football and having a Euros every four years between the world cups instead of a six nations that year.
Eurovision model: the current 6, plus two more each year who have to go through a qualifying tournament in Autumn while we’re doing our Autumn internationals. Have a pool of 6 qualifiers. Most years Georgia and Portugal or Romania would probably qualify but occasionally you might get an interesting upset.
Flattering scoreline. Italy have won two and drawn one.
If they'd got the kick against France they'd be near the top of the board.
Incredible.
Yes. And they nearly beat England too
In a few years Italy might finally be challenging for the title
It’s a young side, Quesada is a great influence on the team. They can only improve at this stage. I think you’re right. I cannot remember them ever only losing twice in the six nations before.
Only a few years back the suggestion was replace them with Georgia.
Maybe it’s time to expand it to Georgia and… Portugal? Someone else? Eight nations. 7 games every winter. Exciting!
And Tbilisi and Lisbon are both wonderful cities
Rugby has to expand to survive
Two leagues of 4 or 5 teams with promotion and relegation would make it more interesting.
No that would be boring. Six nations means you get at least five games per team and three games every weekend
I’d expand it to eight nations
Relegation seems pretty severe for one bad season.
Relegation won’t happen because Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas - all the teams apart from England and France have been through spells over the last 20 years where they could be at risk of relegation and it would blow their financial models so they will never allow it.
The tradition is also very important with people loving their annual trips to Dublin, Rome, Paris and some even like going to Twickenham, Edinburgh and one guy likes going to Cardiff which rules out a decent plan of two leagues of four teams with the top two of each league playing semis then a final and the bottom two being relegated.
It works really well as it is so won’t change. Only option might be following football and having a Euros every four years between the world cups instead of a six nations that year.
Eurovision model: the current 6, plus two more each year who have to go through a qualifying tournament in Autumn while we’re doing our Autumn internationals. Have a pool of 6. Most years Georgia and Portugal or Romania would probably qualify but occasionally you might get an interesting upset.
There will not be a no confidence vote (whatever happens in May). Sunak will remain Tory leader through to the election in the autumn. The party will then lose very badly.
That concludes this ex cathedra proclamation.
Well experience tells me it is never profitable to disagree with you.
There was a challenge to John Major after the disastrous 1995 local elections when Redwood got 89 votes or 27%. That mechanism doesn't exist any more so presumably the question would be how many would against Sunak in a VONC if one were called? 50, 100?
They adopted Blairism and it has screwed up the economy.
They need to go back to being conservatives.
They adopted UKIPism and it has screwed up the Country
Other than leaving the EU, which is also Labour party policy, in what way have they adopted UKIPism and how has it screwed up the country?
Leaving the EU is not Labour policy.
Was back in the day. Or the policy of a substantial sector of the party. That’s why Corbyn, who a follower of that sector’s leader was so lukewarm about opposing Brexit in 2017 and indeed 2019.
Yes indeed. The 70s. Flares, prog rock, chopper bikes, Dirty Leeds ... and Labour more Brexity than the Conservatives.
In the 70s labour was the party of the working class not the middle class careerist.
'His school routinely washed uniforms for children whose families didn’t have a washing machine.
The school recently stepped in to help after discovering a pupil begging outside a supermarket and its free breakfast club was “really needed”. But lack of sleep had become another big symptom of poverty – and a barrier to learning.
“We’ve got a lot of kids in homes with not enough beds or a mum sleeping with two or three children,” the head said. Support staff would often take children out of class who weren’t coping because of exhaustion to let them sleep for an hour or two. “Some children are falling asleep in lessons, and not just the little ones,” he said.'
The obvious answer is to make every school a boarding school so every kid gets fed, gets a bed, discipline and support and all parents have time to work. Massive initial cost but imagine the benefits. This isn’t entirely serious but maybe it is.
Flattering scoreline. Italy have won two and drawn one.
If they'd got the kick against France they'd be near the top of the board.
Incredible.
Yes. And they nearly beat England too
In a few years Italy might finally be challenging for the title
It’s a young side, Quesada is a great influence on the team. They can only improve at this stage. I think you’re right. I cannot remember them ever only losing twice in the six nations before.
Only a few years back the suggestion was replace them with Georgia.
Maybe it’s time to expand it to Georgia and… Portugal? Someone else? Eight nations. 7 games every winter. Exciting!
And Tbilisi and Lisbon are both wonderful cities
Rugby has to expand to survive
Two leagues of 4 or 5 teams with promotion and relegation would make it more interesting.
No that would be boring. Six nations means you get at least five games per team and three games every weekend
I’d expand it to eight nations
Relegation seems pretty severe for one bad season.
Relegation won’t happen because Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas - all the teams apart from England and France have been through spells over the last 20 years where they could be at risk of relegation and it would blow their financial models so they will never allow it.
The tradition is also very important with people loving their annual trips to Dublin, Rome, Paris and some even like going to Twickenham, Edinburgh and one guy likes going to Cardiff which rules out a decent plan of two leagues of four teams with the top two of each league playing semis then a final and the bottom two being relegated.
It works really well as it is so won’t change. Only option might be following football and having a Euros every four years between the world cups instead of a six nations that year.
Eurovision model: the current 6, plus two more each year who have to go through a qualifying tournament in Autumn while we’re doing our Autumn internationals. Have a pool of 6 qualifiers. Most years Georgia and Portugal or Romania would probably qualify but occasionally you might get an interesting upset.
Perhaps we should use the Eurovision model for deciding the PM. Each candidate gets to give a 5 minute speech followed by phone voting and points awarded by a panel of experts.
I bumped into a neighbour an hour ago. He was carrying large bags of shopping into the house from his car; said he'd had to go into the local Morrisons for the first time in five years as their delivery hadn't arrived.
He looked like he'd just come back from the Somme.
Flattering scoreline. Italy have won two and drawn one.
If they'd got the kick against France they'd be near the top of the board.
Incredible.
Yes. And they nearly beat England too
In a few years Italy might finally be challenging for the title
It’s a young side, Quesada is a great influence on the team. They can only improve at this stage. I think you’re right. I cannot remember them ever only losing twice in the six nations before.
Only a few years back the suggestion was replace them with Georgia.
Maybe it’s time to expand it to Georgia and… Portugal? Someone else? Eight nations. 7 games every winter. Exciting!
And Tbilisi and Lisbon are both wonderful cities
Rugby has to expand to survive
Two leagues of 4 or 5 teams with promotion and relegation would make it more interesting.
No that would be boring. Six nations means you get at least five games per team and three games every weekend
I’d expand it to eight nations
Relegation seems pretty severe for one bad season.
Relegation won’t happen because Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas - all the teams apart from England and France have been through spells over the last 20 years where they could be at risk of relegation and it would blow their financial models so they will never allow it.
The tradition is also very important with people loving their annual trips to Dublin, Rome, Paris and some even like going to Twickenham, Edinburgh and one guy likes going to Cardiff which rules out a decent plan of two leagues of four teams with the top two of each league playing semis then a final and the bottom two being relegated.
It works really well as it is so won’t change. Only option might be following football and having a Euros every four years between the world cups instead of a six nations that year.
Eurovision model: the current 6, plus two more each year who have to go through a qualifying tournament in Autumn while we’re doing our Autumn internationals. Have a pool of 6 qualifiers. Most years Georgia and Portugal or Romania would probably qualify but occasionally you might get an interesting upset.
I like but is it an eight team league round robin or two four team leagues with top two playing off? 8 teams is tricky as it damages leagues with players being away for 8 weeks of the season.
They adopted Blairism and it has screwed up the economy.
They need to go back to being conservatives.
They adopted UKIPism and it has screwed up the Country
Other than leaving the EU, which is also Labour party policy, in what way have they adopted UKIPism and how has it screwed up the country?
Leaving the EU is not Labour policy.
They should have a policy to rejoin then LEAVE ALL OVER AGAIN
We all enjoyed it the first time. Absolute hoot
Unless this time we have a sophisticated national debate based on facts and honest trade-offs followed by a multiple choice referendum covering all five possible Brexits.
That wouldn't be such a hoot, would it. No exciting new binary identities forged there.
'His school routinely washed uniforms for children whose families didn’t have a washing machine.
The school recently stepped in to help after discovering a pupil begging outside a supermarket and its free breakfast club was “really needed”. But lack of sleep had become another big symptom of poverty – and a barrier to learning.
“We’ve got a lot of kids in homes with not enough beds or a mum sleeping with two or three children,” the head said. Support staff would often take children out of class who weren’t coping because of exhaustion to let them sleep for an hour or two. “Some children are falling asleep in lessons, and not just the little ones,” he said.'
The obvious answer is to make every school a boarding school so every kid gets fed, gets a bed, discipline and support and all parents have time to work. Massive initial cost but imagine the benefits. This isn’t entirely serious but maybe it is.
I think you might be on to something, so let's push it a bit......
Disadvantaged children to be sent to boarding schools to fill up all the places caused by the introduction of VAT onto fees. All paid for by the local authorities. The scheme would need a good name, of course ... all I can think of so far is "Assisted Places".
According to Steve Richards, a politician out of step with the Party on something important will not become leader. The example he gave was Ken Clarke, whose Europhilia did not mesh with the party. From this I assume Penny's pro-trans ness, albeit rowed back, will similarly disqualify her. Other examples I have thought of include Peter Walker (one-nation Tory in the Thatcher years) and Denis Healey (pro-military Labour in the Benn years). Given this and her lacklustre speech history, I would be very surprised if they can get her past the members.
Can't she just lie that she is in step.
Worked for SKS
I think they went for SKS because they wanted to win. I'm not sure the Tory party, at bottom, want to win. They don't know how to do politics any more and are a bit mizz. It's the equivalent of sulky teens whining about the world but never going outside. Casino is right about the upturn and in normal circs it would be enough but they don't seem to want it enough.
Suspect an improving economy will do Team 2024 about as much good as it did Team 1997; not zero but not enough to change things.
There's clearly something not right with the Conservatives at the moment, which means they really need a long holiday somewhere quiet. It's not quite that they don't want to win (or this conversation wouldn't be happening)... is it more that they have forgotten why they want to win?
Apart from not being Rishi, what would Penny do with six months of running the country?
They adopted Blairism and it has screwed up the economy.
They need to go back to being conservatives.
Indeed, apart from being softer on Brexit and a bit closer to the EU but still out of it what difference would a Starmer government make to a Sunak government? VAT on school fees, even more woke and maybe spending and taxing and building houses in the greenbelt a bit more but that is about it.
If anything Labour has just moved to the centre with Starmer where the Tories have largely been for the last decade, even Brexit got 52% of the voters behind it. In opposition the Conservatives might move right again as they were post 1997 pre Cameron but they aren't now
If Starmer is really a Tory, what point is there in voting actual Tory, given Starmer seems to want the job and isn't distracted by all this nonsense?
I bumped into a neighbour an hour ago. He was carrying large bags of shopping into the house from his car; said he'd had to go into the local Morrisons for the first time in five years as their delivery hadn't arrived.
He looked like he'd just come back from the Somme.
'His school routinely washed uniforms for children whose families didn’t have a washing machine.
The school recently stepped in to help after discovering a pupil begging outside a supermarket and its free breakfast club was “really needed”. But lack of sleep had become another big symptom of poverty – and a barrier to learning.
“We’ve got a lot of kids in homes with not enough beds or a mum sleeping with two or three children,” the head said. Support staff would often take children out of class who weren’t coping because of exhaustion to let them sleep for an hour or two. “Some children are falling asleep in lessons, and not just the little ones,” he said.'
Too many people having too many children they can't afford to look after properly.
Yet our demographic situation means we need more children. Let me rephrase your comment:
Too many people having too little income to look after their children properly.
There are two variations of the Mordaunt strategy which you could call Soft Mordaunt and Hard Mordaunt:
Soft Mordaunt - replace the leader and muddle on with the same strategy.
Hard Mordaunt - replace the leader and also try to reboot the party and reframe the debate. Kick out anyone who is Reform minded and attempt to dominate the centre by using Reform as a foil. Try to crowd Labour out by making it a Reform vs Conservative election.
There's also a right wing orientation strategy - it's only in her understandable lgbt wokism that Mordaunt is particularly centrist. She was far more actively pro-Brexit than Sunak for example, and her bigges parliamentary ally is Andrea Leadsom. She should embrace Truss's policy agenda and an 'all the talents' cabinet.
Comments
There's clearly something not right with the Conservatives at the moment, which means they really need a long holiday somewhere quiet. It's not quite that they don't want to win (or this conversation wouldn't be happening)... is it more that they have forgotten why they want to win?
Apart from not being Rishi, what would Penny do with six months of running the country?
They need to go back to being conservatives.
And Tbilisi and Lisbon are both wonderful cities
Rugby has to expand to survive
(please don't make me spell it out
In that sense, it's the opposite of mass-immigration but with a consistent theme at its core: numbers are crucial.
Or should I say UAE 2 KSA 0?
Polls of Conservative members show they prefer Badenoch to both Mordaunt and Sunak, so there is also the risk that is Tory MPs did topple Sunak they would end up with the hard right ERG's preferred candidate as PM. Who would perhaps win back a few Reform voters but poll even worse with the median UK swing voter than either Sunak or Mordaunt and leak even more to Labour and the LDs
Last weekend one of my friends at the 70th minute predicted England would clinch it in the 79th minute with a fantastic drop-goal.
He was only out by 30 seconds.
We all enjoyed it the first time. Absolute hoot
Then I look at Penny. She's an empty vessel, but she scrubs up well
It all smacks of desperation and as I said the other day shades of what happened when Ardern took over from Andrew Little in New Zealand.
The most dangerous time for Sunak is going to be in the immediate aftermath of the May locals - is there going to be a VONC before then? Seems unlikely - the mechanism for a Conservative coup doesn't seem well developed and I suspect a lot of what we're hearing is grumbling from a frightened minority.
Mordaunt's constituency may become more interesting if the Portsmouth Independent Party decide to put up a candidate. They took three seats last year all from the Conservatives reducing the Tories to just eight on the council. The Conservatives are defending five seats this May - four in Mordaunt's constituency. In 2023, two of the seats were won by the Portsmouth Independents, one by Labour and just one remained Conservative.
Then I look at Penny. She's an empty vessel, but she scrubs up reasonably well, and just perhaps. What could be worse? There is no-one else anyways.
This is why I (not a Tory MP) have felt for some weeks now that Penny M will be PM by June.
Sunak will face the worst local results in my memory by a sitting PM facing a GE. It is inconceivable that the Tory MP's will keep him. They (Tory MP's) are a collective of self serving, venomous, unscrupulous, self interested and vain individuals.
Aside, from the pond dwelling Tory MP's, also consider Labour strategists. After Labour gifted the Tories Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn, Labour are desperate to face off with Sunak. They too know on the doorstep that Sunak goes down as well as, let's think back.. as well as Jeremy Corbyn, and maybe even worse.
Do you really think that the Tories are going to gift the Labour Party with Sunak?
Penny M will be PM by the end of June. That is probably the best betting tip that I will ever give here.
I’d expand it to eight nations
Relegation seems pretty severe for one bad season.
Have I missed anything as I started my new job today as payments director for Sainsbury’s.
My prediction is that the gap between the announcement of epistolary sufficiency to the appointment of new Tory prime minister will take about 2 days, max. Then it will be Mordaunt who announces the general election. She'd be nuts not to. Half the polling deficit will disappear immediately. The penny will have dropped. She's the missing ingredient. Sunak couldn't win an election for toffees. He's a liability.
I bought PM as next PM at Betfair ages ago.
Still rubbish compared to League, mind.
A quick glance at the Reddits shows this is the first day in a week when there hasn’t been a world changing AI revelation
YET
If anything Labour has just moved to the centre with Starmer where the Tories have largely been for the last decade, even Brexit got 52% of the voters behind it. In opposition the Conservatives might move right again as they were post 1997 pre Cameron but they aren't now
Hahahahaha.
Do Sainsbury's actually pay their suppliers then? Must put them at a competitive disadvantage.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68584235
Just checking.
I reckon he'd get IDSed to oblivion.
There really is no hope for them.
Words literally fail me, I cannot conceive of a bigger screw up than trying to replace the Tory leader within a few weeks of the coming general election and expecting that this will work.
Why don´t they just play strip poker for it? Better still they could show the world some dignity and do a Celebrity Masked Singer contest? Maybe they could juggle live hand grenades, while doing the Total Wipe Out course.
If they went ahead with this, I think I would probably put decent money on a Kim Campbell style Tory wipe out.
The country is bust, drowning in shit and generally deeply unhappy and these third rate know nothings are arguing about whose turn it is to lead the rout...
The tradition is also very important with people loving their annual trips to Dublin, Rome, Paris and some even like going to Twickenham, Edinburgh and one guy likes going to Cardiff which rules out a decent plan of two leagues of four teams with the top two of each league playing semis then a final and the bottom two being relegated.
It works really well as it is so won’t change. Only option might be following football and having a Euros every four years between the world cups instead of a six nations that year.
Georgians love rugby. Tbilisi is great. They must be allowed in
But you need an even number of teams so add Portugal too. They’re ranked 14 and ahead of Tonga and they will get better. And Lisbon is also great fun
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2024/mar/16/desperate-neglect-teachers-washing-clothes-and-finding-beds-as-poverty-grips-englands-schools
'His school routinely washed uniforms for children whose families didn’t have a washing machine.
The school recently stepped in to help after discovering a pupil begging outside a supermarket and its free breakfast club was “really needed”. But lack of sleep had become another big symptom of poverty – and a barrier to learning.
“We’ve got a lot of kids in homes with not enough beds or a mum sleeping with two or three children,” the head said. Support staff would often take children out of class who weren’t coping because of exhaustion to let them sleep for an hour or two. “Some children are falling asleep in lessons, and not just the little ones,” he said.'
Riveting.
That’s about six of the best cities in the world, including london and Paris
1) This is PM's only chance of becoming PM.
2) PM pulling off a miracle gives the likes of Suella and Kemi by far their best chance of power. It would be much easier for them to depose PM mid-term and win a Con leadership vote rather than trying to actually win a GE. The electorate is so much more favourable to them in a Con members poll.
So it may just be a possiblity.
You have to feel for poor Mr Sunak. Why didn't he listen to Moon Rabbit?
Just looking at the latest polling from Denmark and there's a 12% swing from the last election with the Government parties down from 50 to 38 and the opposition up from 49 to 61.
The three parties in the coalition, the Social Democrats, Venstre and Moderates are down six, four and two points respectively. The big winners are the Liberal Alliance on the centre right (up seven) and the Socialist People's Party on the left (up six and a half). The populist Denmark Democrats are up a couple of points.
The current polling shows very low numbers for both the Social Democrats and Venstre who were the lead parties of the Arbjeder and Borgerling blocs respectively not so long ago (the Red vs Blue blocs of parties).
Personally think she's surely smart enough to REFUSE the poisoned challenge of CUP "Leadership" BEFORE the next GE.
WHY would she want help a bunch of BoJo-loving jackasses in her own caucus, squeak through on HER coattails . . . and then make HER the fall-person for THEIR wretched excesses?
He looked like he'd just come back from the Somme.
Actually, the 15 percent rule is a neat one if you are a beleaguered leader. It's quite a steep climb from there to toppling an incumbent in not much time.
IDS lost his, but May and Johnson both won theirs. They were the sort of wins that holed them below the waterline, but Sunak doesn't have to hang on that much longer anyway.
I like
That wouldn't be such a hoot, would it. No exciting new binary identities forged there.
Disadvantaged children to be sent to boarding schools to fill up all the places caused by the introduction of VAT onto fees. All paid for by the local authorities. The scheme would need a good name, of course ... all I can think of so far is "Assisted Places".
I have to go all the way to Lincolnshire in the fricking rain to fetch my coat?
Too many people having too little income to look after their children properly.
Tbilisi is better than all of them. More exotic and strange and dreamy and with great food and wine. I adored it
Weirdly World Rugby shows the Women’s rankings ahead of the Men’s rankings. I guess that’s based on how popular they are in comparison…
Go north Britain!!!