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PM for PM – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited March 25 in General
PM for PM – politicalbetting.com

MAIL EXCLUSIVE: Plot to crown Mordaunt as PM #TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/gFGFYzVdzl

Read the full story here

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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,639
    Coming first
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    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483
    2nd
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    edited March 16
    Speaking of firsts, I hope everybody followed the wisdom of this tip from August:

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4503765/#Comment_4503765

    Although it doesn't include an official resignation statement it surely fires the starting gun for a leadership contest.

    Vaughan Gething will surely be favourite for the same reason Yousaf was in Scotland. And he would be the wrong choice for er, much the same reason.

    To be fair, however, neither of the other likely candidates, Eluned Morgan and Jeremy Miles are obviously superior. The only thing they might have going for them in a grassroots contest is they both speak fluent Welsh and I don't think Vaughan Gething does, although he certainly speaks some. But that won't influence the unions or the Labour hierarchy.


    Edit - and third, which is still about seven rates above Wales' politicians and rugby players.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    On topic, the Tories should try it

    This is the last gasp of life in the last chance saloon on the last pub on the street in Last Moment City by Lake Apocalypse, under Extinction Volcano, as the AI War begins

    Nothing to lose. Give the ball to Penny. Might save a seat or two
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    ydoethur said:

    Speaking of firsts, I hope everybody followed the wisdom of this tip from August:

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4503765/#Comment_4503765

    Although it doesn't include an official resignation statement it surely fires the starting gun for a leadership contest.

    Vaughan Gething will surely be favourite for the same reason Yousaf was in Scotland. And he would be the wrong choice for er, much the same reason.

    To be fair, however, neither of the other likely candidates, Eluned Morgan and Jeremy Miles are obviously superior. The only thing they might have going for them in a grassroots contest is they both speak fluent Welsh and I don't think Vaughan Gething does, although he certainly speaks some. But that won't influence the unions or the Labour hierarchy.


    Edit - and third, which is still about seven rates above Wales' politicians and rugby players.

    Very good tip. Congrats
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    pm215pm215 Posts: 1,027
    How many Tory MPs does it take these days to trigger a leadership contest? (Obviously rather more than it takes to trigger a Telegraph exclusive...)
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    Italy shite?

    I don't think I've ever seen an Italian side this good.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    edited March 16
    @Barnesian was the only one to PB competition entrant to predict Mordaunt will be the Tory leader going into the GE, so kudos if it comes off.

    I think PM as PM would be a sensible choice for the Tories... so I am reasonably confident it won't happen.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    Leon said:

    On topic, the Tories should try it

    This is the last gasp of life in the last chance saloon on the last pub on the street in Last Moment City by Lake Apocalypse, under Extinction Volcano, as the AI War begins

    Nothing to lose. Give the ball to Penny. Might save a seat or two

    She'd get found out within a week.

    She's a British Jacinda Ardern but with even less intellectual heft.

    She is nice and normal though. I've met her and she's free of all pomposity.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187

    Italy shite?

    I don't think I've ever seen an Italian side this good.

    They’re scrappy. Some good some bad

    The fly half makes howling errors and some of the handling is bollocks

    But yes they are a lot better than they were. Deserve to win this now and I fear wales do deserve the wooden spoon
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,677
    edited March 16
    The depressing thing about that poll is that only two of the politicians on the list- Mordaunt and Reeves- are seen as net positives. And I suspect that is more that the public don't hate them yet than actually liking them (totals expressing a view are 49% and 42% respectively.)

    We're a grumpy lot, aren't we?

    (As for Mordaunt, as a feisty, funny LotO who recognises that parties need to compromise with the Britain that exists and might be humble enough to lay the ground for the next Conservative PM, why not? Michael Howard with better jokes and looks. But parachting her in as Prime blooming Minister, even for a six month lemming march... really?)
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Speaking of firsts, I hope everybody followed the wisdom of this tip from August:

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4503765/#Comment_4503765

    Although it doesn't include an official resignation statement it surely fires the starting gun for a leadership contest.

    Vaughan Gething will surely be favourite for the same reason Yousaf was in Scotland. And he would be the wrong choice for er, much the same reason.

    To be fair, however, neither of the other likely candidates, Eluned Morgan and Jeremy Miles are obviously superior. The only thing they might have going for them in a grassroots contest is they both speak fluent Welsh and I don't think Vaughan Gething does, although he certainly speaks some. But that won't influence the unions or the Labour hierarchy.


    Edit - and third, which is still about seven rates above Wales' politicians and rugby players.

    Very good tip. Congrats
    In the interests of fairness, I should point out @Penddu2 who took the opposite view was both persuasive and was bang on the money when he said it would be very close.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187

    Leon said:

    On topic, the Tories should try it

    This is the last gasp of life in the last chance saloon on the last pub on the street in Last Moment City by Lake Apocalypse, under Extinction Volcano, as the AI War begins

    Nothing to lose. Give the ball to Penny. Might save a seat or two

    She'd get found out within a week.

    She's a British Jacinda Ardern but with even less intellectual heft.

    She is nice and normal though. I've met her and she's free of all pomposity.
    Fair enough. You know more than me

    But then what else can the Tories do? They can’t sit back and accept extinction
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    TazTaz Posts: 12,567

    Italy shite?

    I don't think I've ever seen an Italian side this good.

    The difference in this Italian side to past ones is they play as a team. Other Italian teams have had better players but not played as a team no not played for 80 minutes

    I expect wales will,win. I’m sure the Welsh team will,want to win for Vaughan Gething.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,423
    Is this one the plots

    1) Where it all exists in the mind of 1 MP?
    2) Where they haven’t actually asked their putative ruler if they wanted to rule?
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    edited March 16
    pm215 said:

    How many Tory MPs does it take these days to trigger a leadership contest? (Obviously rather more than it takes to trigger a Telegraph exclusive...)

    53, I believe (15% of 348 rounded up)
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    ajbajb Posts: 138
    Why would she want it? Surely much better to let Rishi take the fall and get elected as LOTO.

    I guess if Tory MPs come begging because they think they will lose her seats without her, it might be hard to refuse? Because I don't see how she gains from this, unless she really wants out of politics and 6 month stint as PM would look good on the CV
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,109
    edited March 16
    There are only two Tory candidates who might improve fortunes in advance of the election: Mordaunt and Johnson.

    Johnson is not even in Parliament, and the mechanisms by which he might enter it are too outlandish even for these telenovela times.

    Mordaunt it is, then.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    Brilliant try by Italy
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308
    Leon said:

    On topic, the Tories should try it

    This is the last gasp of life in the last chance saloon on the last pub on the street in Last Moment City by Lake Apocalypse, under Extinction Volcano, as the AI War begins

    Nothing to lose. Give the ball to Penny. Might save a seat or two

    I tend to agree: there's nothing to lose by installing Penny.

    HOWEVER. Imagine you are Kemi or Suella. You want to become leader of the Conservatives, then PM.

    If Penny becomes PM and loses, but not too badly, she isn't stepping down. She's going to say "I rescued us from the ashes, I will be the one to take us back into power."

    So ambitious Tory MPs in safe seats might not like the sound of this plan.
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    darkagedarkage Posts: 5,017
    In all seriousness it is worth investigating the odds of a total collapse of the Conservative party. The conditions seem to be there. There is also a precedent for it, the european elections of 2019 - when the conservative vote dropped to 8.8%.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,109
    With Gething’s arrival, no British government is now headed by a white male.
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    TazTaz Posts: 12,567
    Leon said:

    Italy shite?

    I don't think I've ever seen an Italian side this good.

    They’re scrappy. Some good some bad

    The fly half makes howling errors and some of the handling is bollocks

    But yes they are a lot better than they were. Deserve to win this now and I fear wales do deserve the wooden spoon
    You may well be right but their defence against Scotland in the dying minutes of the match last week, when the smallest transgression would give the Scot’s a kickable penalty to win, was extremely good.

    They’re getting better. It’s a journey and they are getting there.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308

    Leon said:

    On topic, the Tories should try it

    This is the last gasp of life in the last chance saloon on the last pub on the street in Last Moment City by Lake Apocalypse, under Extinction Volcano, as the AI War begins

    Nothing to lose. Give the ball to Penny. Might save a seat or two

    She'd get found out within a week.

    She's a British Jacinda Ardern but with even less intellectual heft.

    She is nice and normal though. I've met her and she's free of all pomposity.
    All she has to do, though, is not be Sunak.

    That might be enough to save 40 seats.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    edited March 16
    ajb said:

    Why would she want it? Surely much better to let Rishi take the fall and get elected as LOTO.

    I guess if Tory MPs come begging because they think they will lose her seats without her, it might be hard to refuse? Because I don't see how she gains from this, unless she really wants out of politics and 6 month stint as PM would look good on the CV

    Here's why:

    1. She gets to be PM, even if only for a few months. She should be able to last longer than Truss at least.
    2. Let's assume the Tories end up getting walloped at the GE by a margin of say 10% (quite likely even if Sunak stays); Mordaunt can claim 'you need to stick with me, I halved the deficit in 6 months.
    3. It's quite possible, given the problems facing it, that an incoming Labour government lasts only one term.

    From Mordaunt's pov it surely a no-brainer.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    On topic, the Tories should try it

    This is the last gasp of life in the last chance saloon on the last pub on the street in Last Moment City by Lake Apocalypse, under Extinction Volcano, as the AI War begins

    Nothing to lose. Give the ball to Penny. Might save a seat or two

    She'd get found out within a week.

    She's a British Jacinda Ardern but with even less intellectual heft.

    She is nice and normal though. I've met her and she's free of all pomposity.
    Fair enough. You know more than me

    But then what else can the Tories do? They can’t sit back and accept extinction
    I'd be extremely nervous about the debates and the campaign.

    SKS would make mincemeat of her.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Italy shite?

    I don't think I've ever seen an Italian side this good.

    They’re scrappy. Some good some bad

    The fly half makes howling errors and some of the handling is bollocks

    But yes they are a lot better than they were. Deserve to win this now and I fear wales do deserve the wooden spoon
    You may well be right but their defence against Scotland in the dying minutes of the match last week, when the smallest transgression would give the Scot’s a kickable penalty to win, was extremely good.

    They’re getting better. It’s a journey and they are getting there.
    Yes definitely getting better. Nearly beat England and France as well
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106

    With Gething’s arrival, no British government is now headed by a white male.

    So what?
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,109

    Leon said:

    On topic, the Tories should try it

    This is the last gasp of life in the last chance saloon on the last pub on the street in Last Moment City by Lake Apocalypse, under Extinction Volcano, as the AI War begins

    Nothing to lose. Give the ball to Penny. Might save a seat or two

    She'd get found out within a week.

    She's a British Jacinda Ardern but with even less intellectual heft.

    She is nice and normal though. I've met her and she's free of all pomposity.
    It would be honestly hard to compete for lack of intellectual heft with Jacinda Ardern.

    Mordaunt read Philosophy (at Reading) which presumably suggests some kind of intellectual aspiration.

    Ardern did Media Studies.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,423

    With Gething’s arrival, no British government is now headed by a white male.

    IIRC, Brexit dropped minority participation in politics in Europe massively.

    I still remember the “oh wow, look how far we’ve come” in France when Sarkozy appointed a lady of African ancestry to his cabinet. To a minor ministry, IIRC.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    Taz said:

    Italy shite?

    I don't think I've ever seen an Italian side this good.

    The difference in this Italian side to past ones is they play as a team. Other Italian teams have had better players but not played as a team no not played for 80 minutes

    I expect wales will,win. I’m sure the Welsh team will,want to win for Vaughan Gething.
    I just don't get the criticism of Italy. I assume its just legacy beliefs working their way through.

    They can pass, they can catch, they can dodge, they can ruck.

    Increasingly they can kick too, something they've been bad at in the past - as well as fading in the crucial last 20 minutes.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,109
    edited March 16

    With Gething’s arrival, no British government is now headed by a white male.

    So what?
    It’s remarkable.
    There’s no analogous example, anywhere.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774
    There are two variations of the Mordaunt strategy which you could call Soft Mordaunt and Hard Mordaunt:

    Soft Mordaunt - replace the leader and muddle on with the same strategy.

    Hard Mordaunt - replace the leader and also try to reboot the party and reframe the debate. Kick out anyone who is Reform minded and attempt to dominate the centre by using Reform as a foil. Try to crowd Labour out by making it a Reform vs Conservative election.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763
    Taz said:

    Italy shite?

    I don't think I've ever seen an Italian side this good.

    The difference in this Italian side to past ones is they play as a team. Other Italian teams have had better players but not played as a team no not played for 80 minutes

    I expect wales will,win. I’m sure the Welsh team will,want to win for Vaughan Gething.
    Perhaps he has 200 grand riding on a Welsh win.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    With her strong Woke credentials (something she's been terrible at shaking off, largely because it's true) how does she pull votes back from Reform?
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    Wales desperately need points. A try

    One more score for Italy and they’ve won
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    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,962
    Wales should be playing with the roof open
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,617
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    On topic, the Tories should try it

    This is the last gasp of life in the last chance saloon on the last pub on the street in Last Moment City by Lake Apocalypse, under Extinction Volcano, as the AI War begins

    Nothing to lose. Give the ball to Penny. Might save a seat or two

    I tend to agree: there's nothing to lose by installing Penny.

    HOWEVER. Imagine you are Kemi or Suella. You want to become leader of the Conservatives, then PM.

    If Penny becomes PM and loses, but not too badly, she isn't stepping down. She's going to say "I rescued us from the ashes, I will be the one to take us back into power."

    So ambitious Tory MPs in safe seats might not like the sound of this plan.
    Theres nothing to gain either. Whats the point, Just changing the faces does nothing unless the Tories have a hard hitting manifesto - and some nostra culpae - to present to the electorate. Changing the faces is just celebrity big brother,
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    Tory MPs who want to replace Sunak with Mordaunt as leader before the general election should be made to watch this video at least five times in a row:

    https://x.com/NicholasTyrone/status/1768941410261053725?s=20
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    jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 745
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    On topic, the Tories should try it

    This is the last gasp of life in the last chance saloon on the last pub on the street in Last Moment City by Lake Apocalypse, under Extinction Volcano, as the AI War begins

    Nothing to lose. Give the ball to Penny. Might save a seat or two

    She'd get found out within a week.

    She's a British Jacinda Ardern but with even less intellectual heft.

    She is nice and normal though. I've met her and she's free of all pomposity.
    All she has to do, though, is not be Sunak.

    That might be enough to save 40 seats.
    Additional? Or total?
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    On topic, the Tories should try it

    This is the last gasp of life in the last chance saloon on the last pub on the street in Last Moment City by Lake Apocalypse, under Extinction Volcano, as the AI War begins

    Nothing to lose. Give the ball to Penny. Might save a seat or two

    I tend to agree: there's nothing to lose by installing Penny.

    HOWEVER. Imagine you are Kemi or Suella. You want to become leader of the Conservatives, then PM.

    If Penny becomes PM and loses, but not too badly, she isn't stepping down. She's going to say "I rescued us from the ashes, I will be the one to take us back into power."

    So ambitious Tory MPs in safe seats might not like the sound of this plan.
    Theres nothing to gain either. Whats the point, Just changing the faces does nothing unless the Tories have a hard hitting manifesto - and some nostra culpae - to present to the electorate. Changing the faces is just celebrity big brother,
    If you're in one of the 50 -150 Tory safest seats you might feel she can tip the balance and save your job?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106

    With Gething’s arrival, no British government is now headed by a white male.

    So what?
    It’s remarkable.
    There’s no analogous example, anywhere.
    The remarkable thing is that it's unremarkable.

    The commentariat keep banging on about race and gender here. No-one cares.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    pm215 said:

    How many Tory MPs does it take these days to trigger a leadership contest? (Obviously rather more than it takes to trigger a Telegraph exclusive...)

    That begs the question. Rishi can be ousted without a leadership contest. It was the men in grey suits, in the shape of Sir Graham Brady (old lady) who told Liz Truss she was too far gone. It was resigning ministers that did for Boris even though he was technically immune from a confidence vote, having recently survived one. Theresa May was somewhat similar to both, and arguably so was Mrs Thatcher.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    CatMan said:

    Wales should be playing with the roof open ping pong balls if they're this rubbish.

    FTFY :frowning:
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915

    With Gething’s arrival, no British government is now headed by a white male.

    So what?
    It’s remarkable.
    There’s no analogous example, anywhere.

    I am surprised RefUK haven't started mentioning it.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106

    There are two variations of the Mordaunt strategy which you could call Soft Mordaunt and Hard Mordaunt:

    Soft Mordaunt - replace the leader and muddle on with the same strategy.

    Hard Mordaunt - replace the leader and also try to reboot the party and reframe the debate. Kick out anyone who is Reform minded and attempt to dominate the centre by using Reform as a foil. Try to crowd Labour out by making it a Reform vs Conservative election.

    It was reading her "book" that truly put me off her. The two memorable things in there were abolition of the House of Lords and taking various weapons to It Ain't Half Hot Mum.

    Vapid bilge. Worse than the worst uber-moderniser stuff in the mid noughties.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106

    Leon said:

    On topic, the Tories should try it

    This is the last gasp of life in the last chance saloon on the last pub on the street in Last Moment City by Lake Apocalypse, under Extinction Volcano, as the AI War begins

    Nothing to lose. Give the ball to Penny. Might save a seat or two

    She'd get found out within a week.

    She's a British Jacinda Ardern but with even less intellectual heft.

    She is nice and normal though. I've met her and she's free of all pomposity.
    It would be honestly hard to compete for lack of intellectual heft with Jacinda Ardern.

    Mordaunt read Philosophy (at Reading) which presumably suggests some kind of intellectual aspiration.

    Ardern did Media Studies.
    Her degree paid off, though, didn't it?
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    You have to feel for George North choosing this one as his final game.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,617

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    On topic, the Tories should try it

    This is the last gasp of life in the last chance saloon on the last pub on the street in Last Moment City by Lake Apocalypse, under Extinction Volcano, as the AI War begins

    Nothing to lose. Give the ball to Penny. Might save a seat or two

    I tend to agree: there's nothing to lose by installing Penny.

    HOWEVER. Imagine you are Kemi or Suella. You want to become leader of the Conservatives, then PM.

    If Penny becomes PM and loses, but not too badly, she isn't stepping down. She's going to say "I rescued us from the ashes, I will be the one to take us back into power."

    So ambitious Tory MPs in safe seats might not like the sound of this plan.
    Theres nothing to gain either. Whats the point, Just changing the faces does nothing unless the Tories have a hard hitting manifesto - and some nostra culpae - to present to the electorate. Changing the faces is just celebrity big brother,
    If you're in one of the 50 -150 Tory safest seats you might feel she can tip the balance and save your job?
    Problem is half of them have already cleared off so the saving your seat argument is not that strong.

    Saving the party might be an argument, but the incumbents have monumentally fked it up so theyre not exactly to be trusted with their decisions.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033

    Is this one the plots

    1) Where it all exists in the mind of 1 MP?
    2) Where they haven’t actually asked their putative ruler if they wanted to rule?

    I'm sure it doesn't.

    That would require there to be 1 Tory MP with a mind.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    Any constitutionalists have a view on whether, if Brady tells Sunak I have enough letters, there is anything to stop saying words to the effect of "well, tough shit, I going to see KC and call a May 2nd election".

    Does he need to cabinet to approve that? Would (can) KC refuse him?
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061

    With her strong Woke credentials (something she's been terrible at shaking off, largely because it's true) how does she pull votes back from Reform?

    Reform will (imo) not stand in many constituencies, so there will be no-one to pull back votes from. It is the stay-at-home voters the Conservatives need to worry about, and it is not immediately obvious how Rishi or Penny can motivate them to turn out.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033

    Any constitutionalists have a view on whether, if Brady tells Sunak I have enough letters, there is anything to stop saying words to the effect of "well, tough shit, I going to see KC and call a May 2nd election".

    Does he need to cabinet to approve that? Would (can) KC refuse him?

    (1) No. A sane PM would clear it with them. But ultimately it is a PM's decision, and Sunak has never yet taken the sane option as opposed to the silly one.

    (2) Yes, but in practice a dissolution hasn't been refused since 1834 (discounting the unusual circumstances of 1931).

    However - it wouldn't stop the vote of no confidence from happening. And if Sunak lost then they would be in real trouble.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 40,224
    Not bright enough to be party leader.
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    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,111

    Tory MPs who want to replace Sunak with Mordaunt as leader before the general election should be made to watch this video at least five times in a row:

    https://x.com/NicholasTyrone/status/1768941410261053725?s=20

    Yes, I was going to link to something similar.

    Fans of PM may note that this is like an embarrassingly poor Liz Truss tribute act, pauses included.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,438

    With her strong Woke credentials (something she's been terrible at shaking off, largely because it's true) how does she pull votes back from Reform?

    Reform will (imo) not stand in many constituencies, so there will be no-one to pull back votes from. It is the stay-at-home voters the Conservatives need to worry about, and it is not immediately obvious how Rishi or Penny can motivate them to turn out.
    Reform already have PPCs in many, perhaps most (?) constituencies, e.g. all but 1 of the Oxfordshire seats.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,423
    ydoethur said:

    Any constitutionalists have a view on whether, if Brady tells Sunak I have enough letters, there is anything to stop saying words to the effect of "well, tough shit, I going to see KC and call a May 2nd election".

    Does he need to cabinet to approve that? Would (can) KC refuse him?

    (1) No. A sane PM would clear it with them. But ultimately it is a PM's decision, and Sunak has never yet taken the sane option as opposed to the silly one.

    (2) Yes, but in practice a dissolution hasn't been refused since 1834 (discounting the unusual circumstances of 1931).

    However - it wouldn't stop the vote of no confidence from happening. And if Sunak lost then they would be in real trouble.
    Surely if the government loses a vote of no confidence, that would end up with as dissolution and an election, anyway?
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,109
    Personally I think Mordaunt is not worth the gamble.
    There’s a not insignificant chance it actually delivers the Tory Extinction Event increasingly referenced on here.

    But those asking how Mordaunt will compete with Reform have it wrong. Mordaunt would better compete with Labour (and the Lib Dems).

    Reform voters are chaotic and it’s not even clear they turn out. Some of them just want to back a “winner”, which obviously Sunak is not. But a concerted appeal to Reform alienates much more than it attracts: there’s no Tory recovery based on winning elections them back.
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    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,111
    kinabalu said:

    Not bright enough to be party leader.

    You, or Penny?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    .

    Tory MPs who want to replace Sunak with Mordaunt as leader before the general election should be made to watch this video at least five times in a row:

    https://x.com/NicholasTyrone/status/1768941410261053725?s=20

    That wasn't too bad. It was just too rehearsed/forced. Too many "stand up and fights", pregnant pauses, and planned pointings, she took too long to get to the core message of freedom. But the message was fine and so was the passion.

    Just a function of experience.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,109
    edited March 16
    Another possible curve ball ahead of us is that Sunak might be rumbled by the gilt markets.

    Received wisdom is that Britain is due a modest economic recovery and a gradual lowering of interest rates.

    But it is also slowly dawning that Sunak/Hunt’s fiscal policy is almost Truss-in-slow-motion, and every leak to the Tory press about further tax cuts increases the quotient of anxiety about British economic governance.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,326
    According to Steve Richards, a politician out of step with the Party on something important will not become leader. The example he gave was Ken Clarke, whose Europhilia did not mesh with the party. From this I assume Penny's pro-trans ness, albeit rowed back, will similarly disqualify her. Other examples I have thought of include Peter Walker (one-nation Tory in the Thatcher years) and Denis Healey (pro-military Labour in the Benn years). Given this and her lacklustre speech history, I would be very surprised if they can get her past the members.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    Ah. Italy's fabled problem with the last 20 minutes rears it's ugly head again.

    They could throw this away with a converted try and a few penalties to Wales. Easily.

    Hang tough guys. Hang tough.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,109

    .

    Tory MPs who want to replace Sunak with Mordaunt as leader before the general election should be made to watch this video at least five times in a row:

    https://x.com/NicholasTyrone/status/1768941410261053725?s=20

    That wasn't too bad. It was just too rehearsed/forced. Too many "stand up and fights", pregnant pauses, and planned pointings, she took too long to get to the core message of freedom. But the message was fine and so was the passion.

    Just a function of experience.
    So great, let’s install her as PM?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106

    Another possible curve ball ahead of us is that Sunak might be rumbled by the gilt markets.

    Received wisdom is that Britain is due a modest economic recovery and a gradual lowering of interest rates.

    But it is also slowly dawning that Sunak/Hunt’s fiscal policy is almost Truss-in-slow-motion, and every leak to the Tory press about further tax cuts increases the quotient of anxiety about British economic governance.

    The economy has already turned.

    I've noticed a real change in the market this month.

    Much better than it was in January.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,129

    With Gething’s arrival, no British government is now headed by a white male.

    So what?
    It’s remarkable.
    There’s no analogous example, anywhere.
    And yet the likes of the newly painted Ms. Abbott there is no place more riddled with racism...
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,129
    kinabalu said:

    Not bright enough to be party leader.

    I think we all agree you're not bright enough to be PM
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,478
    Surely Mordaunt is the very worst candidate the Tories could pick. Reform and Farage would portray it as a return to puffy-wuffy Cameronism thus ending any Red Wall hopes, and it would completely destroy the Tories' cultural-war attacks on Labour, what with Mordaunt being Mrs Lord God Queen Woke. Can't see any upsides.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,210
    viewcode said:

    According to Steve Richards, a politician out of step with the Party on something important will not become leader. The example he gave was Ken Clarke, whose Europhilia did not mesh with the party. From this I assume Penny's pro-trans ness, albeit rowed back, will similarly disqualify her. Other examples I have thought of include Peter Walker (one-nation Tory in the Thatcher years) and Denis Healey (pro-military Labour in the Benn years). Given this and her lacklustre speech history, I would be very surprised if they can get her past the members.

    Isn't it the plan to impose her on the party by the mps by making her the sole candidate

    Mind you, this rumour story is driven by the telegraph and mail who are maybe just wishful thinking
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,330
    felix said:

    With Gething’s arrival, no British government is now headed by a white male.

    So what?
    It’s remarkable.
    There’s no analogous example, anywhere.
    And yet the likes of the newly painted Ms. Abbott there is no place more riddled with racism...
    One place that's riddled with racism is Abbott's own head.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,210

    Ah. Italy's fabled problem with the last 20 minutes rears it's ugly head again.

    They could throw this away with a converted try and a few penalties to Wales. Easily.

    Hang tough guys. Hang tough.

    What we're you saying?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106

    .

    Tory MPs who want to replace Sunak with Mordaunt as leader before the general election should be made to watch this video at least five times in a row:

    https://x.com/NicholasTyrone/status/1768941410261053725?s=20

    That wasn't too bad. It was just too rehearsed/forced. Too many "stand up and fights", pregnant pauses, and planned pointings, she took too long to get to the core message of freedom. But the message was fine and so was the passion.

    Just a function of experience.
    So great, let’s install her as PM?
    Nah, I still don't think she washes. Hasn't got the depth.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,437
    viewcode said:

    According to Steve Richards, a politician out of step with the Party on something important will not become leader. The example he gave was Ken Clarke, whose Europhilia did not mesh with the party. From this I assume Penny's pro-trans ness, albeit rowed back, will similarly disqualify her. Other examples I have thought of include Peter Walker (one-nation Tory in the Thatcher years) and Denis Healey (pro-military Labour in the Benn years). Given this and her lacklustre speech history, I would be very surprised if they can get her past the members.

    Can't she just lie that she is in step.

    Worked for SKS
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,478

    Ah. Italy's fabled problem with the last 20 minutes rears it's ugly head again.

    They could throw this away with a converted try and a few penalties to Wales. Easily.

    Hang tough guys. Hang tough.

    What we're you saying?
    In fairness, PB rugby comments never tend to age well, but six minutes might be a bit of a record.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    Well done Italy
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033

    ydoethur said:

    Any constitutionalists have a view on whether, if Brady tells Sunak I have enough letters, there is anything to stop saying words to the effect of "well, tough shit, I going to see KC and call a May 2nd election".

    Does he need to cabinet to approve that? Would (can) KC refuse him?

    (1) No. A sane PM would clear it with them. But ultimately it is a PM's decision, and Sunak has never yet taken the sane option as opposed to the silly one.

    (2) Yes, but in practice a dissolution hasn't been refused since 1834 (discounting the unusual circumstances of 1931).

    However - it wouldn't stop the vote of no confidence from happening. And if Sunak lost then they would be in real trouble.
    Surely if the government loses a vote of no confidence, that would end up with as dissolution and an election, anyway?
    It was a party vote of confidence via the 1922 we were discussing.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    Deserved
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    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,798
    edited March 16
    ...
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,909
    edited March 16

    With her strong Woke credentials (something she's been terrible at shaking off, largely because it's true) how does she pull votes back from Reform?

    Are you sure it's true?

    I'm far from convinced about Mordaunt as a leader but I do think the woke accusation is overdone - it comes from her commons speech years ago which was in my view a spot of Boris-like look-at-me ego grandstanding.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,437

    viewcode said:

    According to Steve Richards, a politician out of step with the Party on something important will not become leader. The example he gave was Ken Clarke, whose Europhilia did not mesh with the party. From this I assume Penny's pro-trans ness, albeit rowed back, will similarly disqualify her. Other examples I have thought of include Peter Walker (one-nation Tory in the Thatcher years) and Denis Healey (pro-military Labour in the Benn years). Given this and her lacklustre speech history, I would be very surprised if they can get her past the members.

    Can't she just lie that she is in step.

    Worked for SKS
    I think if he had stood on austerity, privatising the NHS cutting off water to Palestinians kicking out Socialists not allowing people as left wing as Andy zBurnham to stand rather than the total opposite to that we would have been on course for PM Nandy or PM Long-Bailey
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    In the Lord Ashcroft poll, 2019 Tories have Boris in second place behind Penny Mourdant. It doesn’t really matter that Labour and Lib Dem voters hate (fear?) other potential Tory leaders less
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    What????
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    Italy get the wooden spoon??
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,909
    isam said:

    In the Lord Ashcroft poll, 2019 Tories have Boris in second place behind Penny Mourdant. It doesn’t really matter that Labour and Lib Dem voters hate (fear?) other potential Tory leaders less

    What do you make of Patel and Badenoch, Isam?
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,326

    viewcode said:

    According to Steve Richards, a politician out of step with the Party on something important will not become leader. The example he gave was Ken Clarke, whose Europhilia did not mesh with the party. From this I assume Penny's pro-trans ness, albeit rowed back, will similarly disqualify her. Other examples I have thought of include Peter Walker (one-nation Tory in the Thatcher years) and Denis Healey (pro-military Labour in the Benn years). Given this and her lacklustre speech history, I would be very surprised if they can get her past the members.

    Can't she just lie that she is in step.

    Worked for SKS
    I think they went for SKS because they wanted to win. I'm not sure the Tory party, at bottom, want to win. They don't know how to do politics any more and are a bit mizz. It's the equivalent of sulky teens whining about the world but never going outside. Casino is right about the upturn and in normal circs it would be enough but they don't seem to want it enough.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    Ah. Stupid commentator
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033

    viewcode said:

    According to Steve Richards, a politician out of step with the Party on something important will not become leader. The example he gave was Ken Clarke, whose Europhilia did not mesh with the party. From this I assume Penny's pro-trans ness, albeit rowed back, will similarly disqualify her. Other examples I have thought of include Peter Walker (one-nation Tory in the Thatcher years) and Denis Healey (pro-military Labour in the Benn years). Given this and her lacklustre speech history, I would be very surprised if they can get her past the members.

    Can't she just lie that she is in step.

    Worked for SKS
    I think if he had stood on austerity, privatising the NHS cutting off water to Palestinians kicking out Socialists not allowing people as left wing as Andy zBurnham to stand rather than the total opposite to that we would have been on course for PM Nandy or PM Long-Bailey
    Should there be some commas in that, or are you arguing for the privatisation of the NHS' actions in cutting off water to Palestinians who are kicking out Socialists which are not allowing people...
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    Flattering scoreline. Italy have won two and drawn one.

    If they'd got the kick against France they'd be near the top of the board.

    Incredible.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    Ridiculous score at the end. Stupidly flattering to a terrible wales team
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,478

    Ah. Italy's fabled problem with the last 20 minutes rears it's ugly head again.

    They could throw this away with a converted try and a few penalties to Wales. Easily.

    Hang tough guys. Hang tough.

    What we're you saying?
    In fairness, PB rugby comments never tend to age well, but six minutes might be a bit of a record.
    I owe CR an apology - his skills of rugby prognostication are veritably godlike!
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    TazTaz Posts: 12,567
    Italy did their best to lose that in the last 10 minutes.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187

    Flattering scoreline. Italy have won two and drawn one.

    If they'd got the kick against France they'd be near the top of the board.

    Incredible.

    Yes. And they nearly beat England too

    In a few years Italy might finally be challenging for the title
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    TazTaz Posts: 12,567
    edited March 16
    Leon said:

    Italy get the wooden spoon??

    No. Wales lost all games. Italy won two drew one. Italy were ahead of wales today so wales won’t overtake.
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,909

    .

    Tory MPs who want to replace Sunak with Mordaunt as leader before the general election should be made to watch this video at least five times in a row:

    https://x.com/NicholasTyrone/status/1768941410261053725?s=20

    That wasn't too bad. It was just too rehearsed/forced. Too many "stand up and fights", pregnant pauses, and planned pointings, she took too long to get to the core message of freedom. But the message was fine and so was the passion.

    Just a function of experience.
    So great, let’s install her as PM?
    Nah, I still don't think she washes. Hasn't got the depth.
    I agree but she may not be found out until after the GE. She only has to make it through a few months. Over that period a joint ticket with Badenoch (who I do rate highly) could be quite effective and would put the shits up Starmer.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Italy get the wooden spoon??

    No. Wales lost all games. Italy won two drew one. Italy were ahead of wales today so wales won’t overtake.
    An idiot commentator made a mistake. Which he then corrected
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,330
    viewcode said:

    According to Steve Richards, a politician out of step with the Party on something important will not become leader. The example he gave was Ken Clarke, whose Europhilia did not mesh with the party. From this I assume Penny's pro-trans ness, albeit rowed back, will similarly disqualify her. Other examples I have thought of include Peter Walker (one-nation Tory in the Thatcher years) and Denis Healey (pro-military Labour in the Benn years). Given this and her lacklustre speech history, I would be very surprised if they can get her past the members.

    I'm unsure the Clarke example is a good one for the party. He would have made a far better leader than IDS. (Clarke did, of course, win the MPs third ballot- it was the membership that voted IDS in)
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,109

    viewcode said:

    According to Steve Richards, a politician out of step with the Party on something important will not become leader. The example he gave was Ken Clarke, whose Europhilia did not mesh with the party. From this I assume Penny's pro-trans ness, albeit rowed back, will similarly disqualify her. Other examples I have thought of include Peter Walker (one-nation Tory in the Thatcher years) and Denis Healey (pro-military Labour in the Benn years). Given this and her lacklustre speech history, I would be very surprised if they can get her past the members.

    I'm unsure the Clarke example is a good one for the party. He would have made a far better leader than IDS. (Clarke did, of course, win the MPs third ballot- it was the membership that voted IDS in)
    It’s quite obvious that membership voting doesn’t work.
    It’s a flaw in British democracy that has delivered a series of damaging duds.
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    TazTaz Posts: 12,567
    edited March 16
    Leon said:

    Flattering scoreline. Italy have won two and drawn one.

    If they'd got the kick against France they'd be near the top of the board.

    Incredible.

    Yes. And they nearly beat England too

    In a few years Italy might finally be challenging for the title
    It’s a young side, Quesada is a great influence on the team. They can only improve at this stage. I think you’re right. I cannot remember them ever only losing twice in the six nations before.

    Only a few years back the suggestion was replace them with Georgia.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    Ireland to beat Scotland easily

    France to edge it against England
This discussion has been closed.