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Unsurprising findings – politicalbetting.com

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,044
    edited March 2024
    Leon said:

    I’ve said I’m in a richer burb. I don’t think the average Colombian is buying Camembert or Tanqueray Ten

    Nonetheless the locals are not creeping into this supermarket in awe at the wealth either

    I’ve been all over Colombia these last two weeks - capital, jungle, Medellin, Cartagena now Santa Marta. I’ve been on buses and in taxis and in minivans

    I’ve not seen a single place that looks as poor and shit as that road in Peru which triggered this whole argument. So I am right and you are wrong
    Colombia has had a terrific economic run, sparked by sensible economic policies (and lubricated with some oil money). It has decent education, and has worked hard to attract foreign investment. When I was at Genius Sport, we opened a machine learning center there, because we could get good people at low rates, on a US time zone.
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited March 2024
    Leon said:

    Well I I’ve been to all of those countries - except Algeria. Can anyone else on here say that?

    Indeed I am right now in a fairly average coastal city in Colombia

    And I can report that none of these countries has single storey concrete shacks by dirt roads as a median living experience for their citizens

    So I’m right and you’re wrong
    I wasn't actually still seeking to pursue that argument.

    But where my (graduate but probably less than median-paid) friend lives in Valparaíso de Goiás near Brasilia looks pretty similar to that photo you posted. Dirt road - tick. General look and rundown-ness of the street - tick. I am not sure whether the buildings are made of concrete. They may be. Infrastructure is crap. The roads fall to bits when the rain is heavy. She's been stuck up on the street and robbed at gunpoint twice in the past few years.

    I doubt there are many hotels anywhere near where she lives, or magnets for rich drugheads from rich countries.

    I've got a reasonably OK appreciation of what her living standards are like. I don't hold with the "Want to find out what somewhere is like where you haven't been? Ask a tourist" philosophy.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    rcs1000 said:

    That's simply not true. I've explained how Dall-E has worked many times before. It's brilliant in its simplicity, and like ChatGPT it uses a neural net.

    But Dall-E did not come out of GPT. They are two, entirely different systems.

    (With the proviso that the latest iterations connect them: ChatGPT 4 is capable of feeding Dall-E, and other systems. But that does not mean that Dall-E was in any way an emergent product of GPT.)
    Quick. You need to edit Wikipedia then

    “DALL·E was revealed by OpenAI in a blog post on 5 January 2021, and uses a version of GPT-3[5] modified to generate images.”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DALL-E
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    Donkeys said:

    I wasn't actually still seeking to pursue that argument.

    But where my (graduate but probably less than median-paid) friend lives in Valparaíso de Goiás near Brasilia looks pretty similar to that photo you posted. Dirt road - tick. General look and rundown-ness of the street - tick. I am not sure whether the buildings are made of concrete. They may be. Infrastructure is crap. The roads fall to bits when the rain is heavy. She's been stuck up on the street and robbed at gunpoint twice in the past few years.

    I doubt there are many hotels anywhere near where she lives, or magnets for rich drugheads from rich countries.

    I've got a reasonably OK appreciation of what her living standards are like. I don't hold with the "Want to find out what somewhere is like where you haven't been? Ask a tourist" philosophy.
    So your entire argument is based on your second hand experience of one single friend in Brazil

    That explains everything
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    Why are you all so fucking stupid compared to me?

    I think I’ve worked it out. This has been vexing me for some time. PB is full of really clever people. Yet I am much cleverer than all of you in almost every field - remarkably, even fields IN WHICH YOU SPECIALISE

    Why did I see Covid coming first etc??

    So, ok, it is a puzzle. But I’ve worked it out. It is BECAUSE I travel so much and often to really difficult places. That’s like doing tough physical training every day - but for the brain. Every day is a challenge. Different language, customs, money, social code. Every day is a mental work out worthy of the cerebral SAS

    THUSLY I am supremely mentally fit. I have a cognitive six pack. That’s why you are all so fucking dumb compared to me and you all look like bewildered daffodils when weird things happen and yet I predict them decades ahead

    I Thankyou. I’m here all week. In Santa Marta
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,602
    Leon said:

    Why are you all so fucking stupid compared to me?

    I think I’ve worked it out. This has been vexing me for some time. PB is full of really clever people. Yet I am much cleverer than all of you in almost every field - remarkably, even fields IN WHICH YOU SPECIALISE

    Why did I see Covid coming first etc??

    So, ok, it is a puzzle. But I’ve worked it out. It is BECAUSE I travel so much and often to really difficult places. That’s like doing tough physical training every day - but for the brain. Every day is a challenge. Different language, customs, money, social code. Every day is a mental work out worthy of the cerebral SAS

    THUSLY I am supremely mentally fit. I have a cognitive six pack. That’s why you are all so fucking dumb compared to me and you all look like bewildered daffodils when weird things happen and yet I predict them decades ahead

    I Thankyou. I’m here all week. In Santa
    Marta

    Or maybe you are the PB version of Chat-GPT

    You throw out screeds of bullsh*t covering every conceivable scenario and then conveniently only remember the almost right ones

    For example you were convinced that COVID was a malicious act of war by the Chinese until someone (@charles maybe) pointed out that an accidental lab leak was far more probable.

    And then you adopted that theory as your own.

    But I also remember the millions of dead that you predicted and the Threads threads…
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    edited March 2024

    Or maybe you are the PB version of Chat-GPT

    You throw out screeds of bullsh*t covering every conceivable scenario and then conveniently only remember the almost right ones

    For example you were convinced that COVID was a malicious act of war by the Chinese until someone (@charles maybe) pointed out that an accidental lab leak was far more probable.

    And then you adopted that theory as your own.

    But I also remember the millions of dead that you predicted and the Threads threads…
    But that’s simply not true

    I never said Covid was a deliberate act of war. Utter nonsense

    I’ve always stuck by my original theory that Covid was an accidental lab leak. Turns out I was surely right, huh. The Chinese were/are investigating coronaviruses as weapons - that’s undisputed: so is the USA - but releasing a virus without a vaccine to save the world would be insane. That’s not what happened

    Fact is: I am simply cleverer than any of you and the gulf is now SO huge it’s getting embarrassing and I
    may have to move to Reddit. Right now I am like the only adult in a kindergarten. It’s boring
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,044
    Leon said:

    Quick. You need to edit Wikipedia then

    “DALL·E was revealed by OpenAI in a blog post on 5 January 2021, and uses a version of GPT-3[5] modified to generate images.”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DALL-E
    I'm sure that Dall-E was trained using the same reinforcement learning techniques used for GPT, but Wikipedia is simply wrong to imply they are the same model. They are entirely separate.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,602
    Leon said:

    But that’s simply not true

    I never said Covid was a deliberate act of war. Utter nonsense

    I’ve always stuck by my original theory that Covid was an accidental lab leak. Turns out I was surely right, huh. The Chinese were/are investigating coronaviruses as weapons - that’s undisputed: so is the USA - but releasing a virus without a vaccine to save the world would be insane. That’s not what happened


    Fact is: I am simply cleverer than any of you and the gulf is now SO huge it’s getting embarrassing and I
    may have to move to Reddit. Right now I am like the only adult in a kindergarten. It’s boring
    That’s a false memory

    Your original theory was that it was a deliberate leak from the lab.

    You didn’t appreciate that the “lab leak” theory was more plausible if it was an accident
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,302

    Ben Riley-Smith
    @benrileysmith
    ·
    2h
    In 2017, Theresa May decided not to call a general election to coincide with the locals on May 4… and then held one five weeks later on June 8. Just saying! 🥶

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1768354251833540826

    She had a great locals and a bad GE. So surely as Rishi is going to have a terrible locals his GE will be good.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,302

    Despite the pile on on Sunak rejecting the 2nd May I would still suggest that Starmer's majority ( which he will get) will depend on just how well Reform perform

    Sure, but it only changes it from big to stonking, which matters to some degree but is not that big a distinction.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm sure that Dall-E was trained using the same reinforcement learning techniques used for GPT, but Wikipedia is simply wrong to imply they are the same model. They are entirely separate.
    OpenAI say the same thing. You need to have a word with all of them

    “DALL·E is a 12-billion parameter version of GPT-3 trained to generate images from text descriptions, using a dataset of text–image pairs”

    https://openai.com/research/dall-e

    I mean, I see your point. After all you are the leading person in West Texan car park software, and all they did was create GPT and then DALL-E, but they seem to be ignoring you. Perhaps just give Sam Altman a call from your car park podule, and let them know they’ve got it wrong?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295

    That’s a false memory

    Your original theory was that it was a deliberate leak from the lab.

    You didn’t appreciate that the “lab leak” theory was more plausible if it was an accident
    No, I didn’t. Find the quote. It should not be hard, we all know the dates

    You were all wanking on about wood burning fires, I was saying: Wait, there’s a plague coming
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    That’s a false memory

    Your original theory was that it was a deliberate leak from the lab.

    You didn’t appreciate that the “lab leak” theory was more plausible if it was an accident
    His constant revisionism is why I saved some of the bollocks he wrote about Liz Truss
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    Penddu2 said:

    I am with Leon - the only reason I visit this site is to gather his wisdom. It is like sitting at the feet of a Bhuddist Master. There is more knowledge to be gained in the crumbs which fall from his table than anything that spews from the mouths of the rest of you.

    Thanks. At least someone appreciates me
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    If you don’t shape up, intellectually, I’m leaving

    THIS IS YOUR FINAL WARNING

    Right now I feel like I’m handing out crayons, and trying to get @Heathener to stop eating the playdoh

    Enough. Sharpen up

  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,195
    edited March 2024
    For @Foxy , E-bike first impressions.

    Briefly, it is well built, and fine for around town or relatively local areas, or go somewhere else and then be local.

    Ideal for urban or flattish commutes or errands, or for sticking two in the boot for holidays, capable of roads, trails and tracks except for singletrack or mud, comfortable (good saddle and wide tyres), and a range of ~25 miles. Well-built. Good for eg a 25 mile train journey and cycle back. Nippy.

    Battery is in the seatpost and can be taken away from the bike.

    Probably not for >6 foot, or >110kg riders. Luggage needs consideration, but is doable. Comfortable pottering along at 12-14mph. Can be ridden without battery, but single speed so I would not want to cycle 10-20 miles that way.

    30 day returns, so suggest picking up one or two to try out if you are attracted.

    You want the "Pro" model, with hydraulic disk brakes.

    I'm keeping it. That sale price does make me wonder very slightly about the company, but it seems solid and at the price I'm happy with just a few years use.

    Blow by blow Vs an e-Brompton.

    - Better brakes (hydraulic disks vs rim brakes),
    - Better power delivery point I think (rear wheel hub motor vs front hub motor). If a wheel skids rear is easier to control.
    - But not such smooth pickup (torque sensor on pedals vs movement sensor on pedals). Cautious cut in of power assist as delivered, but can be tweaked to much improve the response from "2 turns later" to "0.25 turns later".
    -Single gear at 60 gear inches, which is mid range vs a range of gears. Slightly less flexibility but also less maintenance and simpler.
    -Less flexibility in accessories eg carrying luggage, shopping etc. Things can be done with a little thought and correct products, but not one for big shopping trips out of the box. My bar bag fits fine - pic below. Brompton has a huge range of accessories.
    - Very easy to fold / unfold say 15s, but not as neatly done as the Brompton wheel-flip.
    - 1/3 to 1/4 of e-Brompton money at the sale price (£900 vs from £3000) - a bargain if it meets your requirement. Get two or three to take on holiday. And also a British company.
    - Easy handlebar controls for power level (3 levels), lights and a horn rather than a bell.

    There are a couple of models on reduction at similar prices - you want the Axon Rides Pro (not Pro Lite), which is the one with hydraulic not manual disk brakes.

    https://www.decathlon.co.uk/p/mp/axon-rides/axon-rides-pro-electric-folding-bike-dark-grey/
    https://www.e-bikesdirect.co.uk/electric-bikes/folding-electric-bikes/axonrides-pro-lightweight-folding-electric-bike-grey

    Pics:



  • TazTaz Posts: 17,198
    Leon said:

    If you don’t shape up, intellectually, I’m leaving

    THIS IS YOUR FINAL WARNING

    Right now I feel like I’m handing out crayons, and trying to get @Heathener to stop eating the playdoh

    Enough. Sharpen up

    Another final warning, what this one. The fifth.

    Playedoh. Now that’s a blast from the past.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,198
    MattW said:

    For @Foxy , E-bike first impressions.

    Briefly, it is well built, and fine for around town or relatively local areas, or go somewhere else and then be local.

    Ideal for urban or flattish commutes or errands, or for sticking two in the boot for holidays, capable of roads, trails and tracks except for singletrack or mud, comfortable (good saddle and wide tyres), and a range of ~25 miles. Well-built. Good for eg a 25 mile train journey and cycle back. Nippy.

    Battery is in the seatpost and can be taken away from the bike.

    Probably not for >6 foot, or >110kg riders. Luggage needs consideration, but is doable. Comfortable pottering along at 12-14mph. Can be ridden without battery, but single speed so I would not want to cycle 10-20 miles that way.

    30 day returns, so suggest picking up one or two to try out if you are attracted.

    You want the "Pro" model, with hydraulic disk brakes.

    I'm keeping it. That sale price does make me wonder very slightly about the company, but it seems solid and at the price I'm happy with just a few years use.

    Blow by blow Vs an e-Brompton.

    - Better brakes (hydraulic disks vs rim brakes),
    - Better power delivery point I think (rear wheel hub motor vs front hub motor). If a wheel skids rear is easier to control.
    - But not such smooth pickup (torque sensor on pedals vs movement sensor on pedals). Cautious cut in of power assist as delivered, but can be tweaked to much improve the response from "2 turns later" to "0.25 turns later".
    -Single gear at 60 gear inches, which is mid range vs a range of gears. Slightly less flexibility but also less maintenance and simpler.
    -Less flexibility in accessories eg carrying luggage, shopping etc. Things can be done with a little thought and correct products, but not one for big shopping trips out of the box. My bar bag fits fine - pic below. Brompton has a huge range of accessories.
    - Very easy to fold / unfold say 15s, but not as neatly done as the Brompton wheel-flip.
    - 1/3 to 1/4 of e-Brompton money at the sale price (£900 vs from £3000) - a bargain if it meets your requirement. Get two or three to take on holiday. And also a British company.
    - Easy handlebar controls for power level (3 levels), lights and a horn rather than a bell.

    There are a couple of models on reduction at similar prices - you want the Axon Rides Pro (not Pro Lite), which is the one with hydraulic not manual disk brakes.

    https://www.decathlon.co.uk/p/mp/axon-rides/axon-rides-pro-electric-folding-bike-dark-grey/
    https://www.e-bikesdirect.co.uk/electric-bikes/folding-electric-bikes/axonrides-pro-lightweight-folding-electric-bike-grey

    Pics:



    I think I’m going to need to migrate to an e bike from my current Carerra Crossfire in a few years time. I’m sure that bike is okay. It just looks like it would be massively uncomfortable to,ride.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,198
    Leon said:

    If you don’t shape up, intellectually, I’m leaving

    THIS IS YOUR FINAL WARNING

    Right now I feel like I’m handing out crayons, and trying to get @Heathener to stop eating the playdoh

    Enough. Sharpen up

    There’s not an enough.sharpen.up but there is this

    Here is a precise what3words address, made of 3 random words. Every 3 metre square in the world has its own unique what3words address.

    ///enough.sharpen.upon
    https://w3w.co/enough.sharpen.upon
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,113
    I'm surprised there has not been more discussion about that prime betting event, the Russian elections.

    I hear the election results in this exemplary democracy are on a knife's edge - if you don't vote the right way, you get the knife... Or a window...
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Leon said:

    If you don’t shape up, intellectually, I’m leaving

    You are like Donald Trump (with whom you share a lot in common) a child and certainly not the intellectual colossus of your own imagination. You seem incapable of holding any position for more than five minutes. And when you do, you’re wrong about it. You fill up this site with endless holiday drivel which is completely boring to the rest of us who, er, also travel around the world. But you wouldn’t get that because you are entirely narcissistic and egotistical. There are scores of people on this site who are far brighter than you and your tawdry airport lounge scribbles.

    I do feel sorry for you. You wrote books about male sexual predation at a time when people found that fascinating. The world moved on and left you behind. But instead of adapting you retreated into an embittered old fool whose judgement is so wayward we can now measure truth by the exact opposite of whatever rubbish you spout.

    Bye.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,934
    Leon said:

    If you don’t shape up, intellectually, I’m leaving

    THIS IS YOUR FINAL WARNING

    Right now I feel like I’m handing out crayons, and trying to get @Heathener to stop eating the playdoh

    Enough. Sharpen up

    Please don't slam the door on your way out.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,083

    I'm surprised there has not been more discussion about that prime betting event, the Russian elections.

    I hear the election results in this exemplary democracy are on a knife's edge - if you don't vote the right way, you get the knife... Or a window...

    An open and shut result.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,083
    For the Russian elections, a revival of an old favourite:

    A regional Communist Party meeting is held to celebrate the anniversary of the Great October Socialist Revolution. The Chairman gives a speech: "Dear comrades! Let's look at the amazing achievements of our Party after the revolution. For example, Maria here, who was she before the revolution? An illiterate peasant; she had but one dress and no shoes. And now? She is an exemplary milkmaid known throughout the entire region. Or look at Ivan Andreev, he was the poorest man in this village; he had no horse, no cow, and not even an ax. And now? He is a tractor driver with two pairs of shoes! Or Trofim Semenovich Alekseev--he was a nasty hooligan, a drunk, and a dirty gadabout. Nobody would trust him with as much as a snowdrift in wintertime, as he would steal anything he could get his hands on. And now he's Secretary of the Regional Party Committee!"
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,083
    Taz said:

    Another final warning, what this one. The fifth.

    Playedoh. Now that’s a blast from the past.
    If only SeanT were still around.

    There was a player. D'oh!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,934

    Jack and Jill have three children. Jack has three and sevenpence in his pocket, Jill has four and eightpence in her purse. How much pocket money can they give to each child?

    I hesitate to insult fellow PBers by revealing the answer to be two and ninepence - you'll have worked that out for ourselves, no doubt. But I'd be interested to know if AI could do it as quickly.

    Does the answer to this not depend on whether the pubs are open?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,083
    edited March 2024
    Leon said:

    If you don’t shape up, intellectually, I’m leaving

    THIS IS YOUR FINAL WARNING

    Right now I feel like I’m handing out crayons, and trying to get @Heathener to stop eating the playdoh

    Enough. Sharpen up

    I could sharpen up, but not right now.

    I'm not being condescending. I'm just too busy thinking about ideas you wouldn't understand to have time to deal with you.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,485
    kle4 said:

    She had a great locals and a bad GE. So surely as Rishi is going to have a terrible locals his GE will be good.
    It could be a good strategy. Allow people to give them a cathartic kicking and then hold a General Election while it’s fresh in their minds and Labour are being triumphalist.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,934

    It could be a good strategy. Allow people to give them a cathartic kicking and then hold a General Election while it’s fresh in their minds and Labour are being triumphalist.
    But you just know that Sunak would screw it up and irritate people all over again in the interim.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,401
    Good morning everybody!

    I shall miss Leon; he’s very amusing sometimes!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785

    Good morning everybody!

    I shall miss Leon; he’s very amusing sometimes!

    Islands within a sea of tedious narcissism.
  • NEW THREAD

  • TazTaz Posts: 17,198
    Waiting for the same confected outrage from the usual suspects banging on about Hester about Labour, allegedly purged of anti semitism, taking cash from a man whose comments on Hamas were "appalling" according to Angela Rayner. I am guessing his cash is less appalling.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/labour-donor-dale-vince-s-comments-about-hamas-were-appalling-says-rayner/ar-BB1jU5Z4?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=d6868a78f9f348bdb3060e1cbfce3573&ei=12
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,171

    It could be a good strategy. Allow people to give them a cathartic kicking and then hold a General Election while it’s fresh in their minds and Labour are being triumphalist.
    Neat idea. Unfortunately, there aren't that many places with council.elections this year;



    (Though there are Mayoral elections in some places as well.)

    The election date algorithm is pretty simple.

    1. If the polls ever show the Conservatives ahead, the election will be called then.
    2. Otherwise, it will be as late as they can get away with.

    Therefore, December 19th, I suspect.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,135

    Is it bias to be grounded in this century, unless specified otherwise?

    Pence have gone with pounds for my entire lifetime, let alone GPT's lifetime.
    The grammar is the big clue, because no-one says "three and six" to mean "three pounds and six pence". It was a grammar unique to the old coinage.

    And as the earlier discussion showed there are a whole bunch of us familiar with the etiquette of warfare in the middle ages, despite not being old enough for that to be contemporaneous for any of us.

    And even then, on my second go I pointed out to ChatGPT that the question related to pre-decimal coinage, and although it knew there were 12 pence to a shilling it still managed to get the answer wrong.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,955

    I would like to thank the moderation team for letting me back on the site.

    Back welcome. To see you again nice.
  • viewcode said:

    Back welcome. To see you again nice.
    *Horse neighs with glee*
  • Sorry to be a pain but @rcs1000 or @TheScreamingEagles could we please have information on why @AverageNinja was banned?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,195
    Taz said:

    I think I’m going to need to migrate to an e bike from my current Carerra Crossfire in a few years time. I’m sure that bike is okay. It just looks like it would be massively uncomfortable to,ride.
    Looks can be deceptive. This is reported as comfortable (nice saddle, big 1.75" tyres at a lowish pressure that surprised me), upright position.

    I'm comfy so far.

    A different manner of riding - it is like a switch from a larger car to a small hatchback.

    If you want comfort, you want an omafiets, which used to be known as an English Roadster until the Dutch borrowed the design in about 1910, or perhaps an e-bike with suspension.
This discussion has been closed.