Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Unsurprising findings – politicalbetting.com

1235»

Comments

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129
    edited March 15
    Leon said:

    Donkeys said:

    Leon said:

    I’ve just been to my local supermarket. It’s a testament to globalisation

    Now to be fair I am in an affluent seaside neighborhood. Nonetheless this is a pretty average Colombian city. It’s not famous like Cartagena (so no tourist income), it’s not important like bogota. It’s not big like Medellin

    It’s a city of 500,000 people quite near the troubled Venezuelan border in a country with a per capita income of $7000

    At first glance the supermarket could easily be in Spain or Croatia. Or a richer bit of wales. The cheese selection is better than most supermarkets in America. The wine is from all over. - but lots of chile and Argentinian. The veg and fruit selection is great and fresh. The bread is good. The hard liquor is fine - bought Bombay sapphire but could have bought Tanqueray or Hendricks

    Wide selection of European olive oils. Great chocolates. Obviously impressive array of coffees ground, beans, raw, all forms. About ten different balsamic vinegars. Dijon mustard. Loads of beers

    This - I repeat - is a nice supermarket in a nice but not outrageously wealthy neighborhood in an average and quite remote Colombian city

    Globalisation and capitalism are phenomenal things

    Have you spoken with any Colombians about the Colombian caste system yet?
    There are 6 levels, with number 6 at the top. That supermarket sounds like 4, possibly 5.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_class_in_Colombia
    I’ve said I’m in a richer burb. I don’t think the average Colombian is buying Camembert or Tanqueray Ten

    Nonetheless the locals are not creeping into this supermarket in awe at the wealth either

    I’ve been all over Colombia these last two weeks - capital, jungle, Medellin, Cartagena now Santa Marta. I’ve been on buses and in taxis and in minivans

    I’ve not seen a single place that looks as poor and shit as that road in Peru which triggered this whole argument. So I am right and you are wrong
    Colombia has had a terrific economic run, sparked by sensible economic policies (and lubricated with some oil money). It has decent education, and has worked hard to attract foreign investment. When I was at Genius Sport, we opened a machine learning center there, because we could get good people at low rates, on a US time zone.
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited March 15
    Leon said:

    Donkeys said:

    Donkeys said:

    rcs1000 said:

    .

    Donkeys said:

    Leon said:

    Donkeys said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    So my take on climate change is this: everywhere in the world is going to get hotter and hotter… apart from the UK which will, uniquely, contrive to get greyer and rainier and even more dismal

    Oh well. At least it should discourage the boat people

    I agree. Our winters are getting warmer but wetter and more miserable and our summers warmer but cloudier. Still one of the most dismal climates for its latitude in the world is Lima which despite being in the Tropics manages to be under constant grey 8 months of the year.
    Indeed. Lima manages to be climatically way more miserable than anywhere in the UK, which is quite a feat given its location. It always annoys me when I read history books or guide books that reference Lima and don’t mention this fairly notable affliction

    Why the fuck did the Spanish build their capital there? The incans very sensibly chose sunny and refreshing Cusco

    Possibly the worst “place” I have ever been - in terms of climate meeting geography - is the desert north of Lima. The Sechura. It’s a dismal grey sand desert, strewn with trash, and cursed with that same cruel and depressing climate - chilly grey cloud like Glasgow but without the chirpy locals

    Also shit food and a history of urgent child sacrifice

    One of the worst drives of my life was in the desert north of lima stuck with a mad driver driving like a maniac on a narrow road and swerving at the last minute to avoid oncoming traffic. And yes its bleak and the locals are miserable.
    I took this photo on a beach in deserty northern Peru as it seemed to summarise the whole place



    However the little colonial towns do have a certain charm, under those sparkling blue skies



    Very Quantum of Solace.
    Imagine living on that street in the second photo. Wake up, put your head out of the door, hang yourself
    Most people in the world live somewhere like that. It's Median Street, Planet Earth, 2024.
    Most people have never stayed in a hotel, owned a car, held a year's income in a bank account, etc.
    Yet suicide is more frequent in the USA and Canada than it is in Latin America.
    And the curious thing: that's with "Latin America" defined as Hispanophone and Lusophone America. There is a single country in South America that tops USA and Canada for self-topping: Guyana.
    As someone who constantly travels the world, I can (happily) reassure you that most people do NOT live on a street similar to that street in the 2nd photo: ie on a dirt road, in a concrete shack, in a shitty town in the middle of an awful foggy desert. Northern Peru, as we have established, is unusually hideous

    The global median person probably lives in a concrete apartment in a large city in India or China. Not beautiful, but not terrible
    Hotels and resorts aren't the world.
    Two thirds of the population of India, the world's most populous country, live outside of cities and so presumably not in apartments.
    That photo could easily be from many places in Brazil (even 30 miles from the capital) or Uganda (ditto).
    China, yes, mostly apartments - only a third live outside of cities.
    Depends how you define median. And cities. I would say they're in a shitty small town somewhere in the third world. Smartphones being the hard drug that's available.
    Well, if you think Uganda (GDP per capita $883) is anything like average for the world, you're insane.

    There are 8 billion people on Planet Earth (give or take).

    About 1.4bn of them are North America or Europe. They're pretty well off, on average. About 1.3bn are in China. They are dramatically richer than they were 20 years ago. And that's true of most of Asia.

    Median incomes and lifestyles have increased extraordinarily in the last 20 years. I mean some places, like rural Russia, have gone backwards. But most places are dramatically richer than they were.
    Okay. Uganda is well below average, so yes. Brazil isn't far below it, though.

    I've been hunting for the world's median person. Listing countries by PPPpc and then going down the list until half the world's population is accounted for, a disgustingly quick and dirty method that has all sorts of things wrong with it, gives the following 7 countries within 10 of the median and with population >10 million:

    In Asia...........Indonesia, Sri Lanka
    In America.....Brazil, Colombia, Peru
    In Africa........Algeria, South Africa

    China is above, India below, by this Q&D metric.
    The 2 of the 7 with closest to the median murder rate are:

    Algeria, Sri Lanka

    Our person may be in a small town in one of those.
    Where would you locate him or her?
    Well I I’ve been to all of those countries - except Algeria. Can anyone else on here say that?

    Indeed I am right now in a fairly average coastal city in Colombia

    And I can report that none of these countries has single storey concrete shacks by dirt roads as a median living experience for their citizens

    So I’m right and you’re wrong
    I wasn't actually still seeking to pursue that argument.

    But where my (graduate but probably less than median-paid) friend lives in Valparaíso de Goiás near Brasilia looks pretty similar to that photo you posted. Dirt road - tick. General look and rundown-ness of the street - tick. I am not sure whether the buildings are made of concrete. They may be. Infrastructure is crap. The roads fall to bits when the rain is heavy. She's been stuck up on the street and robbed at gunpoint twice in the past few years.

    I doubt there are many hotels anywhere near where she lives, or magnets for rich drugheads from rich countries.

    I've got a reasonably OK appreciation of what her living standards are like. I don't hold with the "Want to find out what somewhere is like where you haven't been? Ask a tourist" philosophy.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Meta's chief AI wallah tells Musk he is wrong. Sorry @Leon

    Yann LeCun

    @ylecun
    ·
    4h
    No.
    If it were the case, we would have AI systems that could teach themselves to drive a car in 20 hours of practice, like any 17 year-old.

    But we still don't have fully autonomous, reliable self-driving, even though we (you) have millions of hours of *labeled* training data.

    https://twitter.com/ylecun/status/1768330345059872931

    *Mic drop*

    That should end the debate. Well said.
    LeCun is hilariously clueless
    He's right on this.

    A 17 year old whose prefrontal cortex isn't even fully developed can learn to drive with 20 hours of training.

    AI can't learn to drive with millions of hours of training.

    The idea AI is smarter than humans is facetious bullshit. It might know more, but its not smarter.
    Current-generation AIs don't even know what year it is. Facts are not exactly their strong point. But they haven't been designed to do so.
    AI won't be smart until it can do stuff it hasn't been designed to do, simply because it wants to do it, without anyone prompting it to do so.

    Like any toddler can.
    Er, GPT3 did exactly that. No one taught it to draw. No one realised it had that capability. Then someone asked it to draw - and it did

    “AI is just an evolution of stuff we already have, it’s not some great new thing.”

    “The internet is exactly like a vegetable spiralizer”


    “I can tell you for a fact, AI will provide some efficiency gains and that will be the end of it.”
    Ummm:

    "Er, GPT3 did exactly that. No one taught it to draw. No one realised it had that capability. Then someone asked it to draw - and it did "

    I asked ChatGPT (version 4) to assess the veracity of that claim and it said:

    The statement you're referring to seems to mix up a few details about AI development and capabilities. GPT-3, developed by OpenAI, is a language model known for its ability to understand and generate human-like text based on the input it receives. It was not designed with the capability to create visual art or drawings; its strengths lie in text generation, comprehension, translation, and other language-based tasks.

    The confusion might come from the development of other AI models that are capable of generating images, such as DALL·E (also developed by OpenAI), which was specifically designed to create images from textual descriptions. Unlike GPT-3, DALL·E was intentionally developed and trained to translate text descriptions into visual content. So, when DALL·E is asked to draw something based on a text prompt, it can generate images that match the prompt to a remarkable degree of creativity and accuracy.

    To summarize, the statement is not accurate regarding GPT-3, as GPT-3's capabilities are centered around text. The ability to generate drawings or images from text descriptions relates to other AI models like DALL·E, which were specifically designed for that purpose.
    That’s interestingly wrong

    It’s 8pm in Colombia and I need to eat, but image creation was an emergent property of the early GPTs. The first Dall-e was a remake of GPT3 I think
    That's simply not true. I've explained how Dall-E has worked many times before. It's brilliant in its simplicity, and like ChatGPT it uses a neural net.

    But Dall-E did not come out of GPT. They are two, entirely different systems.

    (With the proviso that the latest iterations connect them: ChatGPT 4 is capable of feeding Dall-E, and other systems. But that does not mean that Dall-E was in any way an emergent product of GPT.)
    Quick. You need to edit Wikipedia then

    “DALL·E was revealed by OpenAI in a blog post on 5 January 2021, and uses a version of GPT-3[5] modified to generate images.”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DALL-E
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    Donkeys said:

    Leon said:

    Donkeys said:

    Donkeys said:

    rcs1000 said:

    .

    Donkeys said:

    Leon said:

    Donkeys said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    So my take on climate change is this: everywhere in the world is going to get hotter and hotter… apart from the UK which will, uniquely, contrive to get greyer and rainier and even more dismal

    Oh well. At least it should discourage the boat people

    I agree. Our winters are getting warmer but wetter and more miserable and our summers warmer but cloudier. Still one of the most dismal climates for its latitude in the world is Lima which despite being in the Tropics manages to be under constant grey 8 months of the year.
    Indeed. Lima manages to be climatically way more miserable than anywhere in the UK, which is quite a feat given its location. It always annoys me when I read history books or guide books that reference Lima and don’t mention this fairly notable affliction

    Why the fuck did the Spanish build their capital there? The incans very sensibly chose sunny and refreshing Cusco

    Possibly the worst “place” I have ever been - in terms of climate meeting geography - is the desert north of Lima. The Sechura. It’s a dismal grey sand desert, strewn with trash, and cursed with that same cruel and depressing climate - chilly grey cloud like Glasgow but without the chirpy locals

    Also shit food and a history of urgent child sacrifice

    One of the worst drives of my life was in the desert north of lima stuck with a mad driver driving like a maniac on a narrow road and swerving at the last minute to avoid oncoming traffic. And yes its bleak and the locals are miserable.
    I took this photo on a beach in deserty northern Peru as it seemed to summarise the whole place



    However the little colonial towns do have a certain charm, under those sparkling blue skies



    Very Quantum of Solace.
    Imagine living on that street in the second photo. Wake up, put your head out of the door, hang yourself
    Most people in the world live somewhere like that. It's Median Street, Planet Earth, 2024.
    Most people have never stayed in a hotel, owned a car, held a year's income in a bank account, etc.
    Yet suicide is more frequent in the USA and Canada than it is in Latin America.
    And the curious thing: that's with "Latin America" defined as Hispanophone and Lusophone America. There is a single country in South America that tops USA and Canada for self-topping: Guyana.
    As someone who constantly travels the world, I can (happily) reassure you that most people do NOT live on a street similar to that street in the 2nd photo: ie on a dirt road, in a concrete shack, in a shitty town in the middle of an awful foggy desert. Northern Peru, as we have established, is unusually hideous

    The global median person probably lives in a concrete apartment in a large city in India or China. Not beautiful, but not terrible
    Hotels and resorts aren't the world.
    Two thirds of the population of India, the world's most populous country, live outside of cities and so presumably not in apartments.
    That photo could easily be from many places in Brazil (even 30 miles from the capital) or Uganda (ditto).
    China, yes, mostly apartments - only a third live outside of cities.
    Depends how you define median. And cities. I would say they're in a shitty small town somewhere in the third world. Smartphones being the hard drug that's available.
    Well, if you think Uganda (GDP per capita $883) is anything like average for the world, you're insane.

    There are 8 billion people on Planet Earth (give or take).

    About 1.4bn of them are North America or Europe. They're pretty well off, on average. About 1.3bn are in China. They are dramatically richer than they were 20 years ago. And that's true of most of Asia.

    Median incomes and lifestyles have increased extraordinarily in the last 20 years. I mean some places, like rural Russia, have gone backwards. But most places are dramatically richer than they were.
    Okay. Uganda is well below average, so yes. Brazil isn't far below it, though.

    I've been hunting for the world's median person. Listing countries by PPPpc and then going down the list until half the world's population is accounted for, a disgustingly quick and dirty method that has all sorts of things wrong with it, gives the following 7 countries within 10 of the median and with population >10 million:

    In Asia...........Indonesia, Sri Lanka
    In America.....Brazil, Colombia, Peru
    In Africa........Algeria, South Africa

    China is above, India below, by this Q&D metric.
    The 2 of the 7 with closest to the median murder rate are:

    Algeria, Sri Lanka

    Our person may be in a small town in one of those.
    Where would you locate him or her?
    Well I I’ve been to all of those countries - except Algeria. Can anyone else on here say that?

    Indeed I am right now in a fairly average coastal city in Colombia

    And I can report that none of these countries has single storey concrete shacks by dirt roads as a median living experience for their citizens

    So I’m right and you’re wrong
    I wasn't actually still seeking to pursue that argument.

    But where my (graduate but probably less than median-paid) friend lives in Valparaíso de Goiás near Brasilia looks pretty similar to that photo you posted. Dirt road - tick. General look and rundown-ness of the street - tick. I am not sure whether the buildings are made of concrete. They may be. Infrastructure is crap. The roads fall to bits when the rain is heavy. She's been stuck up on the street and robbed at gunpoint twice in the past few years.

    I doubt there are many hotels anywhere near where she lives, or magnets for rich drugheads from rich countries.

    I've got a reasonably OK appreciation of what her living standards are like. I don't hold with the "Want to find out what somewhere is like where you haven't been? Ask a tourist" philosophy.
    So your entire argument is based on your second hand experience of one single friend in Brazil

    That explains everything
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    Why are you all so fucking stupid compared to me?

    I think I’ve worked it out. This has been vexing me for some time. PB is full of really clever people. Yet I am much cleverer than all of you in almost every field - remarkably, even fields IN WHICH YOU SPECIALISE

    Why did I see Covid coming first etc??

    So, ok, it is a puzzle. But I’ve worked it out. It is BECAUSE I travel so much and often to really difficult places. That’s like doing tough physical training every day - but for the brain. Every day is a challenge. Different language, customs, money, social code. Every day is a mental work out worthy of the cerebral SAS

    THUSLY I am supremely mentally fit. I have a cognitive six pack. That’s why you are all so fucking dumb compared to me and you all look like bewildered daffodils when weird things happen and yet I predict them decades ahead

    I Thankyou. I’m here all week. In Santa Marta
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,239
    Leon said:

    Why are you all so fucking stupid compared to me?

    I think I’ve worked it out. This has been vexing me for some time. PB is full of really clever people. Yet I am much cleverer than all of you in almost every field - remarkably, even fields IN WHICH YOU SPECIALISE

    Why did I see Covid coming first etc??

    So, ok, it is a puzzle. But I’ve worked it out. It is BECAUSE I travel so much and often to really difficult places. That’s like doing tough physical training every day - but for the brain. Every day is a challenge. Different language, customs, money, social code. Every day is a mental work out worthy of the cerebral SAS

    THUSLY I am supremely mentally fit. I have a cognitive six pack. That’s why you are all so fucking dumb compared to me and you all look like bewildered daffodils when weird things happen and yet I predict them decades ahead

    I Thankyou. I’m here all week. In Santa
    Marta

    Or maybe you are the PB version of Chat-GPT

    You throw out screeds of bullsh*t covering every conceivable scenario and then conveniently only remember the almost right ones

    For example you were convinced that COVID was a malicious act of war by the Chinese until someone (@charles maybe) pointed out that an accidental lab leak was far more probable.

    And then you adopted that theory as your own.

    But I also remember the millions of dead that you predicted and the Threads threads…
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    edited March 15

    Leon said:

    Why are you all so fucking stupid compared to me?

    I think I’ve worked it out. This has been vexing me for some time. PB is full of really clever people. Yet I am much cleverer than all of you in almost every field - remarkably, even fields IN WHICH YOU SPECIALISE

    Why did I see Covid coming first etc??

    So, ok, it is a puzzle. But I’ve worked it out. It is BECAUSE I travel so much and often to really difficult places. That’s like doing tough physical training every day - but for the brain. Every day is a challenge. Different language, customs, money, social code. Every day is a mental work out worthy of the cerebral SAS

    THUSLY I am supremely mentally fit. I have a cognitive six pack. That’s why you are all so fucking dumb compared to me and you all look like bewildered daffodils when weird things happen and yet I predict them decades ahead

    I Thankyou. I’m here all week. In Santa
    Marta

    Or maybe you are the PB version of Chat-GPT

    You throw out screeds of bullsh*t covering every conceivable scenario and then conveniently only remember the almost right ones

    For example you were convinced that COVID was a malicious act of war by the Chinese until someone (@charles maybe) pointed out that an accidental lab leak was far more probable.

    And then you adopted that theory as your own.

    But I also remember the millions of dead that you predicted and the Threads threads…
    But that’s simply not true

    I never said Covid was a deliberate act of war. Utter nonsense

    I’ve always stuck by my original theory that Covid was an accidental lab leak. Turns out I was surely right, huh. The Chinese were/are investigating coronaviruses as weapons - that’s undisputed: so is the USA - but releasing a virus without a vaccine to save the world would be insane. That’s not what happened

    Fact is: I am simply cleverer than any of you and the gulf is now SO huge it’s getting embarrassing and I
    may have to move to Reddit. Right now I am like the only adult in a kindergarten. It’s boring
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Meta's chief AI wallah tells Musk he is wrong. Sorry @Leon

    Yann LeCun

    @ylecun
    ·
    4h
    No.
    If it were the case, we would have AI systems that could teach themselves to drive a car in 20 hours of practice, like any 17 year-old.

    But we still don't have fully autonomous, reliable self-driving, even though we (you) have millions of hours of *labeled* training data.

    https://twitter.com/ylecun/status/1768330345059872931

    *Mic drop*

    That should end the debate. Well said.
    LeCun is hilariously clueless
    He's right on this.

    A 17 year old whose prefrontal cortex isn't even fully developed can learn to drive with 20 hours of training.

    AI can't learn to drive with millions of hours of training.

    The idea AI is smarter than humans is facetious bullshit. It might know more, but its not smarter.
    Current-generation AIs don't even know what year it is. Facts are not exactly their strong point. But they haven't been designed to do so.
    AI won't be smart until it can do stuff it hasn't been designed to do, simply because it wants to do it, without anyone prompting it to do so.

    Like any toddler can.
    Er, GPT3 did exactly that. No one taught it to draw. No one realised it had that capability. Then someone asked it to draw - and it did

    “AI is just an evolution of stuff we already have, it’s not some great new thing.”

    “The internet is exactly like a vegetable spiralizer”


    “I can tell you for a fact, AI will provide some efficiency gains and that will be the end of it.”
    Ummm:

    "Er, GPT3 did exactly that. No one taught it to draw. No one realised it had that capability. Then someone asked it to draw - and it did "

    I asked ChatGPT (version 4) to assess the veracity of that claim and it said:

    The statement you're referring to seems to mix up a few details about AI development and capabilities. GPT-3, developed by OpenAI, is a language model known for its ability to understand and generate human-like text based on the input it receives. It was not designed with the capability to create visual art or drawings; its strengths lie in text generation, comprehension, translation, and other language-based tasks.

    The confusion might come from the development of other AI models that are capable of generating images, such as DALL·E (also developed by OpenAI), which was specifically designed to create images from textual descriptions. Unlike GPT-3, DALL·E was intentionally developed and trained to translate text descriptions into visual content. So, when DALL·E is asked to draw something based on a text prompt, it can generate images that match the prompt to a remarkable degree of creativity and accuracy.

    To summarize, the statement is not accurate regarding GPT-3, as GPT-3's capabilities are centered around text. The ability to generate drawings or images from text descriptions relates to other AI models like DALL·E, which were specifically designed for that purpose.
    That’s interestingly wrong

    It’s 8pm in Colombia and I need to eat, but image creation was an emergent property of the early GPTs. The first Dall-e was a remake of GPT3 I think
    That's simply not true. I've explained how Dall-E has worked many times before. It's brilliant in its simplicity, and like ChatGPT it uses a neural net.

    But Dall-E did not come out of GPT. They are two, entirely different systems.

    (With the proviso that the latest iterations connect them: ChatGPT 4 is capable of feeding Dall-E, and other systems. But that does not mean that Dall-E was in any way an emergent product of GPT.)
    Quick. You need to edit Wikipedia then

    “DALL·E was revealed by OpenAI in a blog post on 5 January 2021, and uses a version of GPT-3[5] modified to generate images.”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DALL-E
    I'm sure that Dall-E was trained using the same reinforcement learning techniques used for GPT, but Wikipedia is simply wrong to imply they are the same model. They are entirely separate.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,239
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Why are you all so fucking stupid compared to me?

    I think I’ve worked it out. This has been vexing me for some time. PB is full of really clever people. Yet I am much cleverer than all of you in almost every field - remarkably, even fields IN WHICH YOU SPECIALISE

    Why did I see Covid coming first etc??

    So, ok, it is a puzzle. But I’ve worked it out. It is BECAUSE I travel so much and often to really difficult places. That’s like doing tough physical training every day - but for the brain. Every day is a challenge. Different language, customs, money, social code. Every day is a mental work out worthy of the cerebral SAS

    THUSLY I am supremely mentally fit. I have a cognitive six pack. That’s why you are all so fucking dumb compared to me and you all look like bewildered daffodils when weird things happen and yet I predict them decades ahead

    I Thankyou. I’m here all week. In Santa
    Marta

    Or maybe you are the PB version of Chat-GPT

    You throw out screeds of bullsh*t covering every conceivable scenario and then conveniently only remember the almost right ones

    For example you were convinced that COVID was a malicious act of war by the Chinese until someone (@charles maybe) pointed out that an accidental lab leak was far more probable.

    And then you adopted that theory as your own.

    But I also remember the millions of dead that you predicted and the Threads threads…
    But that’s simply not true

    I never said Covid was a deliberate act of war. Utter nonsense

    I’ve always stuck by my original theory that Covid was an accidental lab leak. Turns out I was surely right, huh. The Chinese were/are investigating coronaviruses as weapons - that’s undisputed: so is the USA - but releasing a virus without a vaccine to save the world would be insane. That’s not what happened


    Fact is: I am simply cleverer than any of you and the gulf is now SO huge it’s getting embarrassing and I
    may have to move to Reddit. Right now I am like the only adult in a kindergarten. It’s boring
    That’s a false memory

    Your original theory was that it was a deliberate leak from the lab.

    You didn’t appreciate that the “lab leak” theory was more plausible if it was an accident
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071

    Ben Riley-Smith
    @benrileysmith
    ·
    2h
    In 2017, Theresa May decided not to call a general election to coincide with the locals on May 4… and then held one five weeks later on June 8. Just saying! 🥶

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1768354251833540826

    She had a great locals and a bad GE. So surely as Rishi is going to have a terrible locals his GE will be good.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071

    Despite the pile on on Sunak rejecting the 2nd May I would still suggest that Starmer's majority ( which he will get) will depend on just how well Reform perform

    Sure, but it only changes it from big to stonking, which matters to some degree but is not that big a distinction.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Meta's chief AI wallah tells Musk he is wrong. Sorry @Leon

    Yann LeCun

    @ylecun
    ·
    4h
    No.
    If it were the case, we would have AI systems that could teach themselves to drive a car in 20 hours of practice, like any 17 year-old.

    But we still don't have fully autonomous, reliable self-driving, even though we (you) have millions of hours of *labeled* training data.

    https://twitter.com/ylecun/status/1768330345059872931

    *Mic drop*

    That should end the debate. Well said.
    LeCun is hilariously clueless
    He's right on this.

    A 17 year old whose prefrontal cortex isn't even fully developed can learn to drive with 20 hours of training.

    AI can't learn to drive with millions of hours of training.

    The idea AI is smarter than humans is facetious bullshit. It might know more, but its not smarter.
    Current-generation AIs don't even know what year it is. Facts are not exactly their strong point. But they haven't been designed to do so.
    AI won't be smart until it can do stuff it hasn't been designed to do, simply because it wants to do it, without anyone prompting it to do so.

    Like any toddler can.
    Er, GPT3 did exactly that. No one taught it to draw. No one realised it had that capability. Then someone asked it to draw - and it did

    “AI is just an evolution of stuff we already have, it’s not some great new thing.”

    “The internet is exactly like a vegetable spiralizer”


    “I can tell you for a fact, AI will provide some efficiency gains and that will be the end of it.”
    Ummm:

    "Er, GPT3 did exactly that. No one taught it to draw. No one realised it had that capability. Then someone asked it to draw - and it did "

    I asked ChatGPT (version 4) to assess the veracity of that claim and it said:

    The statement you're referring to seems to mix up a few details about AI development and capabilities. GPT-3, developed by OpenAI, is a language model known for its ability to understand and generate human-like text based on the input it receives. It was not designed with the capability to create visual art or drawings; its strengths lie in text generation, comprehension, translation, and other language-based tasks.

    The confusion might come from the development of other AI models that are capable of generating images, such as DALL·E (also developed by OpenAI), which was specifically designed to create images from textual descriptions. Unlike GPT-3, DALL·E was intentionally developed and trained to translate text descriptions into visual content. So, when DALL·E is asked to draw something based on a text prompt, it can generate images that match the prompt to a remarkable degree of creativity and accuracy.

    To summarize, the statement is not accurate regarding GPT-3, as GPT-3's capabilities are centered around text. The ability to generate drawings or images from text descriptions relates to other AI models like DALL·E, which were specifically designed for that purpose.
    That’s interestingly wrong

    It’s 8pm in Colombia and I need to eat, but image creation was an emergent property of the early GPTs. The first Dall-e was a remake of GPT3 I think
    That's simply not true. I've explained how Dall-E has worked many times before. It's brilliant in its simplicity, and like ChatGPT it uses a neural net.

    But Dall-E did not come out of GPT. They are two, entirely different systems.

    (With the proviso that the latest iterations connect them: ChatGPT 4 is capable of feeding Dall-E, and other systems. But that does not mean that Dall-E was in any way an emergent product of GPT.)
    Quick. You need to edit Wikipedia then

    “DALL·E was revealed by OpenAI in a blog post on 5 January 2021, and uses a version of GPT-3[5] modified to generate images.”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DALL-E
    I'm sure that Dall-E was trained using the same reinforcement learning techniques used for GPT, but Wikipedia is simply wrong to imply they are the same model. They are entirely separate.
    OpenAI say the same thing. You need to have a word with all of them

    “DALL·E is a 12-billion parameter version of GPT-3 trained to generate images from text descriptions, using a dataset of text–image pairs”

    https://openai.com/research/dall-e

    I mean, I see your point. After all you are the leading person in West Texan car park software, and all they did was create GPT and then DALL-E, but they seem to be ignoring you. Perhaps just give Sam Altman a call from your car park podule, and let them know they’ve got it wrong?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Why are you all so fucking stupid compared to me?

    I think I’ve worked it out. This has been vexing me for some time. PB is full of really clever people. Yet I am much cleverer than all of you in almost every field - remarkably, even fields IN WHICH YOU SPECIALISE

    Why did I see Covid coming first etc??

    So, ok, it is a puzzle. But I’ve worked it out. It is BECAUSE I travel so much and often to really difficult places. That’s like doing tough physical training every day - but for the brain. Every day is a challenge. Different language, customs, money, social code. Every day is a mental work out worthy of the cerebral SAS

    THUSLY I am supremely mentally fit. I have a cognitive six pack. That’s why you are all so fucking dumb compared to me and you all look like bewildered daffodils when weird things happen and yet I predict them decades ahead

    I Thankyou. I’m here all week. In Santa
    Marta

    Or maybe you are the PB version of Chat-GPT

    You throw out screeds of bullsh*t covering every conceivable scenario and then conveniently only remember the almost right ones

    For example you were convinced that COVID was a malicious act of war by the Chinese until someone (@charles maybe) pointed out that an accidental lab leak was far more probable.

    And then you adopted that theory as your own.

    But I also remember the millions of dead that you predicted and the Threads threads…
    But that’s simply not true

    I never said Covid was a deliberate act of war. Utter nonsense

    I’ve always stuck by my original theory that Covid was an accidental lab leak. Turns out I was surely right, huh. The Chinese were/are investigating coronaviruses as weapons - that’s undisputed: so is the USA - but releasing a virus without a vaccine to save the world would be insane. That’s not what happened


    Fact is: I am simply cleverer than any of you and the gulf is now SO huge it’s getting embarrassing and I
    may have to move to Reddit. Right now I am like the only adult in a kindergarten. It’s boring
    That’s a false memory

    Your original theory was that it was a deliberate leak from the lab.

    You didn’t appreciate that the “lab leak” theory was more plausible if it was an accident
    No, I didn’t. Find the quote. It should not be hard, we all know the dates

    You were all wanking on about wood burning fires, I was saying: Wait, there’s a plague coming
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Why are you all so fucking stupid compared to me?

    I think I’ve worked it out. This has been vexing me for some time. PB is full of really clever people. Yet I am much cleverer than all of you in almost every field - remarkably, even fields IN WHICH YOU SPECIALISE

    Why did I see Covid coming first etc??

    So, ok, it is a puzzle. But I’ve worked it out. It is BECAUSE I travel so much and often to really difficult places. That’s like doing tough physical training every day - but for the brain. Every day is a challenge. Different language, customs, money, social code. Every day is a mental work out worthy of the cerebral SAS

    THUSLY I am supremely mentally fit. I have a cognitive six pack. That’s why you are all so fucking dumb compared to me and you all look like bewildered daffodils when weird things happen and yet I predict them decades ahead

    I Thankyou. I’m here all week. In Santa
    Marta

    Or maybe you are the PB version of Chat-GPT

    You throw out screeds of bullsh*t covering every conceivable scenario and then conveniently only remember the almost right ones

    For example you were convinced that COVID was a malicious act of war by the Chinese until someone (@charles maybe) pointed out that an accidental lab leak was far more probable.

    And then you adopted that theory as your own.

    But I also remember the millions of dead that you predicted and the Threads threads…
    But that’s simply not true

    I never said Covid was a deliberate act of war. Utter nonsense

    I’ve always stuck by my original theory that Covid was an accidental lab leak. Turns out I was surely right, huh. The Chinese were/are investigating coronaviruses as weapons - that’s undisputed: so is the USA - but releasing a virus without a vaccine to save the world would be insane. That’s not what happened


    Fact is: I am simply cleverer than any of you and the gulf is now SO huge it’s getting embarrassing and I
    may have to move to Reddit. Right now I am like the only adult in a kindergarten. It’s boring
    That’s a false memory

    Your original theory was that it was a deliberate leak from the lab.

    You didn’t appreciate that the “lab leak” theory was more plausible if it was an accident
    His constant revisionism is why I saved some of the bollocks he wrote about Liz Truss
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    Penddu2 said:

    I am with Leon - the only reason I visit this site is to gather his wisdom. It is like sitting at the feet of a Bhuddist Master. There is more knowledge to be gained in the crumbs which fall from his table than anything that spews from the mouths of the rest of you.

    Thanks. At least someone appreciates me
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    If you don’t shape up, intellectually, I’m leaving

    THIS IS YOUR FINAL WARNING

    Right now I feel like I’m handing out crayons, and trying to get @Heathener to stop eating the playdoh

    Enough. Sharpen up

  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,128
    edited March 15
    For @Foxy , E-bike first impressions.

    Briefly, it is well built, and fine for around town or relatively local areas, or go somewhere else and then be local.

    Ideal for urban or flattish commutes or errands, or for sticking two in the boot for holidays, capable of roads, trails and tracks except for singletrack or mud, comfortable (good saddle and wide tyres), and a range of ~25 miles. Well-built. Good for eg a 25 mile train journey and cycle back. Nippy.

    Battery is in the seatpost and can be taken away from the bike.

    Probably not for >6 foot, or >110kg riders. Luggage needs consideration, but is doable. Comfortable pottering along at 12-14mph. Can be ridden without battery, but single speed so I would not want to cycle 10-20 miles that way.

    30 day returns, so suggest picking up one or two to try out if you are attracted.

    You want the "Pro" model, with hydraulic disk brakes.

    I'm keeping it. That sale price does make me wonder very slightly about the company, but it seems solid and at the price I'm happy with just a few years use.

    Blow by blow Vs an e-Brompton.

    - Better brakes (hydraulic disks vs rim brakes),
    - Better power delivery point I think (rear wheel hub motor vs front hub motor). If a wheel skids rear is easier to control.
    - But not such smooth pickup (torque sensor on pedals vs movement sensor on pedals). Cautious cut in of power assist as delivered, but can be tweaked to much improve the response from "2 turns later" to "0.25 turns later".
    -Single gear at 60 gear inches, which is mid range vs a range of gears. Slightly less flexibility but also less maintenance and simpler.
    -Less flexibility in accessories eg carrying luggage, shopping etc. Things can be done with a little thought and correct products, but not one for big shopping trips out of the box. My bar bag fits fine - pic below. Brompton has a huge range of accessories.
    - Very easy to fold / unfold say 15s, but not as neatly done as the Brompton wheel-flip.
    - 1/3 to 1/4 of e-Brompton money at the sale price (£900 vs from £3000) - a bargain if it meets your requirement. Get two or three to take on holiday. And also a British company.
    - Easy handlebar controls for power level (3 levels), lights and a horn rather than a bell.

    There are a couple of models on reduction at similar prices - you want the Axon Rides Pro (not Pro Lite), which is the one with hydraulic not manual disk brakes.

    https://www.decathlon.co.uk/p/mp/axon-rides/axon-rides-pro-electric-folding-bike-dark-grey/
    https://www.e-bikesdirect.co.uk/electric-bikes/folding-electric-bikes/axonrides-pro-lightweight-folding-electric-bike-grey

    Pics:



  • TazTaz Posts: 14,362
    Leon said:

    If you don’t shape up, intellectually, I’m leaving

    THIS IS YOUR FINAL WARNING

    Right now I feel like I’m handing out crayons, and trying to get @Heathener to stop eating the playdoh

    Enough. Sharpen up

    Another final warning, what this one. The fifth.

    Playedoh. Now that’s a blast from the past.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,362
    MattW said:

    For @Foxy , E-bike first impressions.

    Briefly, it is well built, and fine for around town or relatively local areas, or go somewhere else and then be local.

    Ideal for urban or flattish commutes or errands, or for sticking two in the boot for holidays, capable of roads, trails and tracks except for singletrack or mud, comfortable (good saddle and wide tyres), and a range of ~25 miles. Well-built. Good for eg a 25 mile train journey and cycle back. Nippy.

    Battery is in the seatpost and can be taken away from the bike.

    Probably not for >6 foot, or >110kg riders. Luggage needs consideration, but is doable. Comfortable pottering along at 12-14mph. Can be ridden without battery, but single speed so I would not want to cycle 10-20 miles that way.

    30 day returns, so suggest picking up one or two to try out if you are attracted.

    You want the "Pro" model, with hydraulic disk brakes.

    I'm keeping it. That sale price does make me wonder very slightly about the company, but it seems solid and at the price I'm happy with just a few years use.

    Blow by blow Vs an e-Brompton.

    - Better brakes (hydraulic disks vs rim brakes),
    - Better power delivery point I think (rear wheel hub motor vs front hub motor). If a wheel skids rear is easier to control.
    - But not such smooth pickup (torque sensor on pedals vs movement sensor on pedals). Cautious cut in of power assist as delivered, but can be tweaked to much improve the response from "2 turns later" to "0.25 turns later".
    -Single gear at 60 gear inches, which is mid range vs a range of gears. Slightly less flexibility but also less maintenance and simpler.
    -Less flexibility in accessories eg carrying luggage, shopping etc. Things can be done with a little thought and correct products, but not one for big shopping trips out of the box. My bar bag fits fine - pic below. Brompton has a huge range of accessories.
    - Very easy to fold / unfold say 15s, but not as neatly done as the Brompton wheel-flip.
    - 1/3 to 1/4 of e-Brompton money at the sale price (£900 vs from £3000) - a bargain if it meets your requirement. Get two or three to take on holiday. And also a British company.
    - Easy handlebar controls for power level (3 levels), lights and a horn rather than a bell.

    There are a couple of models on reduction at similar prices - you want the Axon Rides Pro (not Pro Lite), which is the one with hydraulic not manual disk brakes.

    https://www.decathlon.co.uk/p/mp/axon-rides/axon-rides-pro-electric-folding-bike-dark-grey/
    https://www.e-bikesdirect.co.uk/electric-bikes/folding-electric-bikes/axonrides-pro-lightweight-folding-electric-bike-grey

    Pics:



    I think I’m going to need to migrate to an e bike from my current Carerra Crossfire in a few years time. I’m sure that bike is okay. It just looks like it would be massively uncomfortable to,ride.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,362
    Leon said:

    If you don’t shape up, intellectually, I’m leaving

    THIS IS YOUR FINAL WARNING

    Right now I feel like I’m handing out crayons, and trying to get @Heathener to stop eating the playdoh

    Enough. Sharpen up

    There’s not an enough.sharpen.up but there is this

    Here is a precise what3words address, made of 3 random words. Every 3 metre square in the world has its own unique what3words address.

    ///enough.sharpen.upon
    https://w3w.co/enough.sharpen.upon
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549
    I'm surprised there has not been more discussion about that prime betting event, the Russian elections.

    I hear the election results in this exemplary democracy are on a knife's edge - if you don't vote the right way, you get the knife... Or a window...
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Leon said:

    If you don’t shape up, intellectually, I’m leaving

    You are like Donald Trump (with whom you share a lot in common) a child and certainly not the intellectual colossus of your own imagination. You seem incapable of holding any position for more than five minutes. And when you do, you’re wrong about it. You fill up this site with endless holiday drivel which is completely boring to the rest of us who, er, also travel around the world. But you wouldn’t get that because you are entirely narcissistic and egotistical. There are scores of people on this site who are far brighter than you and your tawdry airport lounge scribbles.

    I do feel sorry for you. You wrote books about male sexual predation at a time when people found that fascinating. The world moved on and left you behind. But instead of adapting you retreated into an embittered old fool whose judgement is so wayward we can now measure truth by the exact opposite of whatever rubbish you spout.

    Bye.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Leon said:

    If you don’t shape up, intellectually, I’m leaving

    THIS IS YOUR FINAL WARNING

    Right now I feel like I’m handing out crayons, and trying to get @Heathener to stop eating the playdoh

    Enough. Sharpen up

    Please don't slam the door on your way out.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,354

    I'm surprised there has not been more discussion about that prime betting event, the Russian elections.

    I hear the election results in this exemplary democracy are on a knife's edge - if you don't vote the right way, you get the knife... Or a window...

    An open and shut result.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,354
    For the Russian elections, a revival of an old favourite:

    A regional Communist Party meeting is held to celebrate the anniversary of the Great October Socialist Revolution. The Chairman gives a speech: "Dear comrades! Let's look at the amazing achievements of our Party after the revolution. For example, Maria here, who was she before the revolution? An illiterate peasant; she had but one dress and no shoes. And now? She is an exemplary milkmaid known throughout the entire region. Or look at Ivan Andreev, he was the poorest man in this village; he had no horse, no cow, and not even an ax. And now? He is a tractor driver with two pairs of shoes! Or Trofim Semenovich Alekseev--he was a nasty hooligan, a drunk, and a dirty gadabout. Nobody would trust him with as much as a snowdrift in wintertime, as he would steal anything he could get his hands on. And now he's Secretary of the Regional Party Committee!"
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,354
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    If you don’t shape up, intellectually, I’m leaving

    THIS IS YOUR FINAL WARNING

    Right now I feel like I’m handing out crayons, and trying to get @Heathener to stop eating the playdoh

    Enough. Sharpen up

    Another final warning, what this one. The fifth.

    Playedoh. Now that’s a blast from the past.
    If only SeanT were still around.

    There was a player. D'oh!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,798

    Jack and Jill have three children. Jack has three and sevenpence in his pocket, Jill has four and eightpence in her purse. How much pocket money can they give to each child?

    I hesitate to insult fellow PBers by revealing the answer to be two and ninepence - you'll have worked that out for ourselves, no doubt. But I'd be interested to know if AI could do it as quickly.

    Does the answer to this not depend on whether the pubs are open?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,354
    edited March 15
    Leon said:

    If you don’t shape up, intellectually, I’m leaving

    THIS IS YOUR FINAL WARNING

    Right now I feel like I’m handing out crayons, and trying to get @Heathener to stop eating the playdoh

    Enough. Sharpen up

    I could sharpen up, but not right now.

    I'm not being condescending. I'm just too busy thinking about ideas you wouldn't understand to have time to deal with you.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,603
    kle4 said:

    Ben Riley-Smith
    @benrileysmith
    ·
    2h
    In 2017, Theresa May decided not to call a general election to coincide with the locals on May 4… and then held one five weeks later on June 8. Just saying! 🥶

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1768354251833540826

    She had a great locals and a bad GE. So surely as Rishi is going to have a terrible locals his GE will be good.
    It could be a good strategy. Allow people to give them a cathartic kicking and then hold a General Election while it’s fresh in their minds and Labour are being triumphalist.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,798

    kle4 said:

    Ben Riley-Smith
    @benrileysmith
    ·
    2h
    In 2017, Theresa May decided not to call a general election to coincide with the locals on May 4… and then held one five weeks later on June 8. Just saying! 🥶

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1768354251833540826

    She had a great locals and a bad GE. So surely as Rishi is going to have a terrible locals his GE will be good.
    It could be a good strategy. Allow people to give them a cathartic kicking and then hold a General Election while it’s fresh in their minds and Labour are being triumphalist.
    But you just know that Sunak would screw it up and irritate people all over again in the interim.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,417
    Good morning everybody!

    I shall miss Leon; he’s very amusing sometimes!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627

    Good morning everybody!

    I shall miss Leon; he’s very amusing sometimes!

    Islands within a sea of tedious narcissism.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,620

    NEW THREAD

  • TazTaz Posts: 14,362
    Waiting for the same confected outrage from the usual suspects banging on about Hester about Labour, allegedly purged of anti semitism, taking cash from a man whose comments on Hamas were "appalling" according to Angela Rayner. I am guessing his cash is less appalling.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/labour-donor-dale-vince-s-comments-about-hamas-were-appalling-says-rayner/ar-BB1jU5Z4?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=d6868a78f9f348bdb3060e1cbfce3573&ei=12
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,214

    kle4 said:

    Ben Riley-Smith
    @benrileysmith
    ·
    2h
    In 2017, Theresa May decided not to call a general election to coincide with the locals on May 4… and then held one five weeks later on June 8. Just saying! 🥶

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1768354251833540826

    She had a great locals and a bad GE. So surely as Rishi is going to have a terrible locals his GE will be good.
    It could be a good strategy. Allow people to give them a cathartic kicking and then hold a General Election while it’s fresh in their minds and Labour are being triumphalist.
    Neat idea. Unfortunately, there aren't that many places with council.elections this year;



    (Though there are Mayoral elections in some places as well.)

    The election date algorithm is pretty simple.

    1. If the polls ever show the Conservatives ahead, the election will be called then.
    2. Otherwise, it will be as late as they can get away with.

    Therefore, December 19th, I suspect.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,354

    Jack and Jill have three children. Jack has three and sevenpence in his pocket, Jill has four and eightpence in her purse. How much pocket money can they give to each child?

    I hesitate to insult fellow PBers by revealing the answer to be two and ninepence - you'll have worked that out for ourselves, no doubt. But I'd be interested to know if AI could do it as quickly.

    Well you have seven (what?) and 15 pence, so the solution should be 2 (what) and five pence each with 1 (what) leftover.

    If those were pounds you're talking about, then that's another 33 pence each with a penny left over.

    So I'm going £2.48 each with a penny leftover.
    It was standard grammar to say 3 and 7 as shorthand for 3 shillings and seven pence. You'd expect an omniscient AI to know that.
    Maybe it was in the eighteen hundreds, but to be fair the AI is getting trained on this centuries material nowadays, in which case pence go with pounds.

    So £2.38 that they got is the right answer (I did a typo writing £2.48).

    £2.05 each plus 33p each from the extra pound.
    It's the sort of problem I could have solved as a nine-year-old in 1960. Maybe AI is suffering from recency bias?
    Is it bias to be grounded in this century, unless specified otherwise?

    Pence have gone with pounds for my entire lifetime, let alone GPT's lifetime.
    The grammar is the big clue, because no-one says "three and six" to mean "three pounds and six pence". It was a grammar unique to the old coinage.

    And as the earlier discussion showed there are a whole bunch of us familiar with the etiquette of warfare in the middle ages, despite not being old enough for that to be contemporaneous for any of us.

    And even then, on my second go I pointed out to ChatGPT that the question related to pre-decimal coinage, and although it knew there were 12 pence to a shilling it still managed to get the answer wrong.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068

    I would like to thank the moderation team for letting me back on the site.

    Back welcome. To see you again nice.
  • viewcode said:

    I would like to thank the moderation team for letting me back on the site.

    Back welcome. To see you again nice.
    *Horse neighs with glee*
  • Sorry to be a pain but @rcs1000 or @TheScreamingEagles could we please have information on why @AverageNinja was banned?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,128
    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    For @Foxy , E-bike first impressions.

    Briefly, it is well built, and fine for around town or relatively local areas, or go somewhere else and then be local.
    Lo
    Ideal for urban or flattish commutes or errands, or for sticking two in the boot for holidays, capable of roads, trails and tracks except for singletrack or mud, comfortable (good saddle and wide tyres), and a range of ~25 miles. Well-built. Good for eg a 25 mile train journey and cycle back. Nippy.

    Battery is in the seatpost and can be taken away from the bike.

    Probably not for >6 foot, or >110kg riders. Luggage needs consideration, but is doable. Comfortable pottering along at 12-14mph. Can be ridden without battery, but single speed so I would not want to cycle 10-20 miles that way.

    30 day returns, so suggest picking up one or two to try out if you are attracted.

    You want the "Pro" model, with hydraulic disk brakes.

    I'm keeping it. That sale price does make me wonder very slightly about the company, but it seems solid and at the price I'm happy with just a few years use.

    Blow by blow Vs an e-Brompton.

    - Better brakes (hydraulic disks vs rim brakes),
    - Better power delivery point I think (rear wheel hub motor vs front hub motor). If a wheel skids rear is easier to control.
    - But not such smooth pickup (torque sensor on pedals vs movement sensor on pedals). Cautious cut in of power assist as delivered, but can be tweaked to much improve the response from "2 turns later" to "0.25 turns later".
    -Single gear at 60 gear inches, which is mid range vs a range of gears. Slightly less flexibility but also less maintenance and simpler.
    -Less flexibility in accessories eg carrying luggage, shopping etc. Things can be done with a little thought and correct products, but not one for big shopping trips out of the box. My bar bag fits fine - pic below. Brompton has a huge range of accessories.
    - Very easy to fold / unfold say 15s, but not as neatly done as the Brompton wheel-flip.
    - 1/3 to 1/4 of e-Brompton money at the sale price (£900 vs from £3000) - a bargain if it meets your requirement. Get two or three to take on holiday. And also a British company.
    - Easy handlebar controls for power level (3 levels), lights and a horn rather than a bell.

    There are a couple of models on reduction at similar prices - you want the Axon Rides Pro (not Pro Lite), which is the one with hydraulic not manual disk brakes.

    https://www.decathlon.co.uk/p/mp/axon-rides/axon-rides-pro-electric-folding-bike-dark-grey/
    https://www.e-bikesdirect.co.uk/electric-bikes/folding-electric-bikes/axonrides-pro-lightweight-folding-electric-bike-grey

    Pics:



    I think I’m going to need to migrate to an e bike from my current Carerra Crossfire in a few years time. I’m sure that bike is okay. It just looks like it would be massively uncomfortable to,ride.
    Looks can be deceptive. This is reported as comfortable (nice saddle, big 1.75" tyres at a lowish pressure that surprised me), upright position.

    I'm comfy so far.

    A different manner of riding - it is like a switch from a larger car to a small hatchback.

    If you want comfort, you want an omafiets, which used to be known as an English Roadster until the Dutch borrowed the design in about 1910, or perhaps an e-bike with suspension.
This discussion has been closed.