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Unsurprising findings – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited March 25 in General
Unsurprising findings – politicalbetting.com

67% of Britons think it is likely that Israel has committed war crimes during their attack on GazaThis includes 46% of those who say they sympathise most with the Israeli side in the conflicthttps://t.co/FZ9chPvsp5 pic.twitter.com/v8XHa1KMxB

Read the full story here

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  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    I trust you will discuss this topic in a temperate way.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 20,296
    edited March 14
    Israel should have our complete support until Hamas is completely destroyed.

    If people want to offer refuge to Palestinians outside the war zone, then that is entirely reasonable, but expecting Israel not to fight a war or to fight with its hands tied behind its back is not.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,965

    I trust you will discuss this topic in a temperate way.

    And off we go!
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,422
    Omnium said:

    Elon Musk is the Rishi Sunak of spaceflight :lol:

    Why?

    He seems to be quite happy ahead of time if it all blows up. Admits it too.
    Further.

    The marginal cost of today’s launch was about 100 million dollars.

    Which could have put 150 tons into LEO.

    The current F9 rocket *costs* about 20 million to put 17 tons into LEO. Reusing stage 1.

    So per kilo, Starship is already cheaper as a fully expendable.

    The next launch will be carrying Starlink satellites. Almost certainly.

    If you can put 5x as many Starlink sats on the Starship stack as F9, it is already the cheapest option.
  • Options
    Omnium said:

    Elon Musk is the Rishi Sunak of spaceflight :lol:

    Why?

    He seems to be quite happy ahead of time if it all blows up. Admits it too.
    You learn more from your mistakes than you do from your successes.

    Key to developing is to try, fail, learn, try, fail, learn and repeat until you stop failing.

    Musk is 100% doing the right thing there. Far better than not trying until you know you won't fail at which point you simply don't bother because you never will.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883

    Israel should have our complete support until Hamas is completely destroyed.

    If people want to offer refuge to Palestinians outside the war zone, then that is entirely reasonable, but expecting Israel not to fight a war or to fight with its hands tied behind its back is not.

    I don't think that expecting Israel to do its best to stick to the rules of war equates to expecting them to tie their hands behind their back. Not is it unreasonable to expect that, as the occupying power, Israel will take the necessary steps to feed civilians in the areas it controls.

    Neither of these steps would prevent Israel from fighting Hamas until Hamas is defeated. Unfortunately they seem to be steps Israel is unwilling to take.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567

    Israel should have our complete support until Hamas is completely destroyed.

    If people want to offer refuge to Palestinians outside the war zone, then that is entirely reasonable, but expecting Israel not to fight a war or to fight with its hands tied behind its back is not.

    US Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer has called for new elections in Israel, accusing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of prioritising his "political survival" above the country.

    Mr Schumer, a Democrat and the highest-ranking Jewish official in the US, said Mr Netanyahu had "lost his way".

    He warned huge civilian casualties in Gaza risked alienating allies and turning Israel into a global "pariah".

    It is a sharp escalation in US criticism of Mr Netanyahu's government.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68568586
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    The British people are very sensible when it comes to the Gaza conflict

    A necessary and cheering reminder that most Brits are NOT nutters
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,422

    Israel should have our complete support until Hamas is completely destroyed.

    If people want to offer refuge to Palestinians outside the war zone, then that is entirely reasonable, but expecting Israel not to fight a war or to fight with its hands tied behind its back is not.

    US Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer has called for new elections in Israel, accusing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of prioritising his "political survival" above the country.

    Mr Schumer, a Democrat and the highest-ranking Jewish official in the US, said Mr Netanyahu had "lost his way".

    He warned huge civilian casualties in Gaza risked alienating allies and turning Israel into a global "pariah".

    It is a sharp escalation in US criticism of Mr Netanyahu's government.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68568586
    If any politicians are listening, can we implement my plan to fill in a chunk of the Med to create more land? Less crazy than many ideas and has the added attraction of not requiring more dead people.
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    ajbajb Posts: 138
    edited March 14
    It does feel like something has shifted recently in that the humanitarian situation has become unignorable.
    To the extent that:

    * Israeli Human rights organisations are saying that their own govt isn't complying with the ICJ ruling with respect to food aid (https://twitter.com/HaMokedRights/status/1767200559176491210 )
    * Senior Israeli former security officials wrote an open letter saying "The humanitarian situation in Gaza undermines Israel’s security"

    * Biden said 'Netanyahu is doing more harm than good'
    * The US senate majority leader, who also happens to be jewish, called for new elections in Israel - and this seems to have cut through to Israeli media (at least the english language media - I don't read hebrew)
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883

    Israel should have our complete support until Hamas is completely destroyed.

    If people want to offer refuge to Palestinians outside the war zone, then that is entirely reasonable, but expecting Israel not to fight a war or to fight with its hands tied behind its back is not.

    US Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer has called for new elections in Israel, accusing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of prioritising his "political survival" above the country.

    Mr Schumer, a Democrat and the highest-ranking Jewish official in the US, said Mr Netanyahu had "lost his way".

    He warned huge civilian casualties in Gaza risked alienating allies and turning Israel into a global "pariah".

    It is a sharp escalation in US criticism of Mr Netanyahu's government.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68568586
    If any politicians are listening, can we implement my plan to fill in a chunk of the Med to create more land? Less crazy than many ideas and has the added attraction of not requiring more dead people.
    The Mediterranean shelves relatively rapidly off the coast of Israel/Palestine unfortunately.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,567

    I trust you will discuss this topic in a temperate way.

    I’m sure the discussion will be on a par with the standards set on the previous debates.

    I’m off to listen to Radiohead and enjoy a strawberry pizza.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,543
    Yep, I am in the 67% and the 46% too. And the 72%. And the 60%. But not the 74%,
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    TazTaz Posts: 12,567
    I’ve been at the coalface all day, have we done the hate monster and white male entitlement ?

    https://x.com/drrachelbroady/status/1768178165518672209?s=61
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,194

    Omnium said:

    Elon Musk is the Rishi Sunak of spaceflight :lol:

    Why?

    He seems to be quite happy ahead of time if it all blows up. Admits it too.
    You learn more from your mistakes than you do from your successes.

    Key to developing is to try, fail, learn, try, fail, learn and repeat until you stop failing.

    Musk is 100% doing the right thing there. Far better than not trying until you know you won't fail at which point you simply don't bother because you never will.
    I agree. He's amazing.
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    darkagedarkage Posts: 5,017

    Israel should have our complete support until Hamas is completely destroyed.

    If people want to offer refuge to Palestinians outside the war zone, then that is entirely reasonable, but expecting Israel not to fight a war or to fight with its hands tied behind its back is not.

    I think that in reality Israel does have western support. The "concern" about the situation is a way of appeasing public opinion. It is unfortunate that the situation goes like this but it is largely the making of Hamas, and Israel are going to keep going until they are wiped out. It is hard to 'support' Israel given that the whole situation is a massive historical mess but the situation for them is existential and to this extent their position is understandable.
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,048
    The Guardian report that the government are going to carry on with the badger cull, which allows them the glorious sub-heading of "Sunak wants them all dead."

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/14/uk-government-overturns-plans-to-phase-out-badger-cull

    I don't really care if the badger cull happens or not but what I would like the government to do is reduce the incidence of Bovine TB. If experts think that a badger cull will do that, then go for it. But according to the Guardian, that's not the reason.

    "It is believed ministers wish to create a point of difference with the Labour party, which has said it would stop the cull, in an attempt to retain seats in rural areas."

    Can't just for once, this government run this country by making good decisions instead of trying to make everything a culture war?
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,210
    Robert Peston just announced that Sunak formally rules out a 2nd May election and Peston expects it in November-December

    Yes I know it is Robert Peston
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,326
    Carnyx said:
    You may remember this song from over a decade ago...

    Save The Badger Badger Badger (Extended Version)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yud0CHRw-Bs
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    FPT on that photo from Peru, and whether it represents average life for most people (spoiler: it doesn’t)

    Thanks to the genius of the iPhone I am able to tell you that the photo in question was taken on Sunday October 3, 2010, at 1.13pm, on Calle Lioncio Prado, in the little town of Reque, south of Chiclayo, in northern Peru

    So almost 15 years ago

    There is now a little hotel on that street. Quinta Rosa Garces. This is what it looks like now



    Quite a contrast from



    So even where life WAS that bad, it is no longer that bad
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,422
    A

    Israel should have our complete support until Hamas is completely destroyed.

    If people want to offer refuge to Palestinians outside the war zone, then that is entirely reasonable, but expecting Israel not to fight a war or to fight with its hands tied behind its back is not.

    US Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer has called for new elections in Israel, accusing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of prioritising his "political survival" above the country.

    Mr Schumer, a Democrat and the highest-ranking Jewish official in the US, said Mr Netanyahu had "lost his way".

    He warned huge civilian casualties in Gaza risked alienating allies and turning Israel into a global "pariah".

    It is a sharp escalation in US criticism of Mr Netanyahu's government.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68568586
    If any politicians are listening, can we implement my plan to fill in a chunk of the Med to create more land? Less crazy than many ideas and has the added attraction of not requiring more dead people.
    The Mediterranean shelves relatively rapidly off the coast of Israel/Palestine unfortunately.
    That’s just a matter of more rocks.

    Think big.

    What’s the price of the conflict to the world, right now? Is it 50 billion a year?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,543
    edited March 14

    Robert Peston just announced that Sunak formally rules out a 2nd May election and Peston expects it in November-December

    Yes I know it is Robert Peston

    Damn. I was getting confident about 21st November. Can't win them all, I suppose.
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,677
    Carnyx said:
    Sunak has probably got between six weeks and ten months left in office.

    Just time for one (and only one) legacy project.

    And killing badgers is it? Presumably serves them right for moving the goalposts.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,671
    The Tories bought and paid for by Hester .

    Over 40% of their election funding will be down to him . Quite astonishing that this doesn’t seem to alarm people especially given his government contracts .

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    ***LEGENDARY MODESTY KLAXON***

    I was right again.

    Rishi Sunak has ruled out the possibility of a general election taking place on 2 May - the day of the local elections - as had been widely speculated.

    Asked if this will be the election date by ITV, he said: "There won't be a general election on that day.

    "But when there is a general election, what matters is the choice."


    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-uk-politics-sunak-starmer-general-election-vote-labour-tories-speaker-sky-news-politics-hub-12593360
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    TazTaz Posts: 12,567
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883

    A

    Israel should have our complete support until Hamas is completely destroyed.

    If people want to offer refuge to Palestinians outside the war zone, then that is entirely reasonable, but expecting Israel not to fight a war or to fight with its hands tied behind its back is not.

    US Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer has called for new elections in Israel, accusing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of prioritising his "political survival" above the country.

    Mr Schumer, a Democrat and the highest-ranking Jewish official in the US, said Mr Netanyahu had "lost his way".

    He warned huge civilian casualties in Gaza risked alienating allies and turning Israel into a global "pariah".

    It is a sharp escalation in US criticism of Mr Netanyahu's government.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68568586
    If any politicians are listening, can we implement my plan to fill in a chunk of the Med to create more land? Less crazy than many ideas and has the added attraction of not requiring more dead people.
    The Mediterranean shelves relatively rapidly off the coast of Israel/Palestine unfortunately.
    That’s just a matter of more rocks.

    Think big.

    What’s the price of the conflict to the world, right now? Is it 50 billion a year?
    Elon Musk has notably not got into the land reclamation game, which I think is rather telling given his attraction to other grandiose endeavours. It might just be rather difficult on a grand scale.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    edited March 14

    Robert Peston just announced that Sunak formally rules out a 2nd May election and Peston expects it in November-December

    Yes I know it is Robert Peston

    Am I in a time warp, or just very drunk. But didn’t you post exactly this last week and the week before?

    Anyway, only another week of you informing us, that the political colossus Rishi Sunak has ruled out a very bad result for the Conservative Party, and has instead chosen an extinction event for the Party, and right wing populism usurping Conservatism in British politics. 😔
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,422
    Taz said:

    I trust you will discuss this topic in a temperate way.

    I’m sure the discussion will be on a par with the standards set on the previous debates.

    I’m off to listen to Radiohead and enjoy a strawberry pizza.
    Strawberry on top of bacon?
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    Inter alia, the map/info functionaity on the iPhone camera is incredible
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    edited March 14
    FPT
    Leon said:

    Donkeys said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    So my take on climate change is this: everywhere in the world is going to get hotter and hotter… apart from the UK which will, uniquely, contrive to get greyer and rainier and even more dismal

    Oh well. At least it should discourage the boat people

    I agree. Our winters are getting warmer but wetter and more miserable and our summers warmer but cloudier. Still one of the most dismal climates for its latitude in the world is Lima which despite being in the Tropics manages to be under constant grey 8 months of the year.
    Indeed. Lima manages to be climatically way more miserable than anywhere in the UK, which is quite a feat given its location. It always annoys me when I read history books or guide books that reference Lima and don’t mention this fairly notable affliction

    Why the fuck did the Spanish build their capital there? The incans very sensibly chose sunny and refreshing Cusco

    Possibly the worst “place” I have ever been - in terms of climate meeting geography - is the desert north of Lima. The Sechura. It’s a dismal grey sand desert, strewn with trash, and cursed with that same cruel and depressing climate - chilly grey cloud like Glasgow but without the chirpy locals

    Also shit food and a history of urgent child sacrifice

    One of the worst drives of my life was in the desert north of lima stuck with a mad driver driving like a maniac on a narrow road and swerving at the last minute to avoid oncoming traffic. And yes its bleak and the locals are miserable.
    I took this photo on a beach in deserty northern Peru as it seemed to summarise the whole place



    However the little colonial towns do have a certain charm, under those sparkling blue skies



    Very Quantum of Solace.
    Imagine living on that street in the second photo. Wake up, put your head out of the door, hang yourself
    Most people in the world live somewhere like that. It's Median Street, Planet Earth, 2024.
    Most people have never stayed in a hotel, owned a car, held a year's income in a bank account, etc.
    Yet suicide is more frequent in the USA and Canada than it is in Latin America.
    And the curious thing: that's with "Latin America" defined as Hispanophone and Lusophone America. There is a single country in South America that tops USA and Canada for self-topping: Guyana.
    As someone who constantly travels the world, I can (happily) reassure you that most people do NOT live on a street similar to that street in the 2nd photo: ie on a dirt road, in a concrete shack, in a shitty town in the middle of an awful foggy desert. Northern Peru, as we have established, is unusually hideous

    The global median person probably lives in a concrete apartment in a large city in India or China. Not beautiful, but not terrible
    As someone who has believed that travel broadens the mind, remembering the day that I promised myself to find time and space to travel (a promise I believe I have kept), as the 20-year-old self returning on a ferry across rough seas toward the white cliffs after the summer of 1983 spent mostly behind the iron curtain, your existence as the best travelled yet most self-evidently narrow-minded PB regular is always a distressing challenge to my world view.

    There is either something flawed in your character or something flawed in the privileged, entitled way that you travel that must surely prove, in the literal historical sense, the rule.

  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,617
    DavidL said:

    Robert Peston just announced that Sunak formally rules out a 2nd May election and Peston expects it in November-December

    Yes I know it is Robert Peston

    Damn. I was getting confident about 21st November. Can't win them all, I suppose.
    I’m sticking with January 25th.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,543
    Leon said:

    Inter alia, the map/info functionaity on the iPhone camera is incredible

    Absolutely. The amount of evidence that the average crim carries around in his hip pocket is remarkable.
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    DavidL said:

    Robert Peston just announced that Sunak formally rules out a 2nd May election and Peston expects it in November-December

    Yes I know it is Robert Peston

    Damn. I was getting confident about 21st November. Can't win them all, I suppose.
    Peston saying Nov/Dec makes me even more confident in my prediction its either October or January 2025.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    Taz said:
    Thoughts and prayers for @MoonRabbit
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033

    Taz said:

    I trust you will discuss this topic in a temperate way.

    I’m sure the discussion will be on a par with the standards set on the previous debates.

    I’m off to listen to Radiohead and enjoy a strawberry pizza.
    Strawberry on top of bacon?
    Ban this sick filth!

    When I become the country's first directly elected dictator I will class anyone who advocates pineapple on pizza as a member of an extremist organisation.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,543

    Robert Peston just announced that Sunak formally rules out a 2nd May election and Peston expects it in November-December

    Yes I know it is Robert Peston

    Am I in a time warp, or just very drunk. But didn’t you post exactly this last week and the week before?
    Deja vu all over again.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    IanB2 said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    Donkeys said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    So my take on climate change is this: everywhere in the world is going to get hotter and hotter… apart from the UK which will, uniquely, contrive to get greyer and rainier and even more dismal

    Oh well. At least it should discourage the boat people

    I agree. Our winters are getting warmer but wetter and more miserable and our summers warmer but cloudier. Still one of the most dismal climates for its latitude in the world is Lima which despite being in the Tropics manages to be under constant grey 8 months of the year.
    Indeed. Lima manages to be climatically way more miserable than anywhere in the UK, which is quite a feat given its location. It always annoys me when I read history books or guide books that reference Lima and don’t mention this fairly notable affliction

    Why the fuck did the Spanish build their capital there? The incans very sensibly chose sunny and refreshing Cusco

    Possibly the worst “place” I have ever been - in terms of climate meeting geography - is the desert north of Lima. The Sechura. It’s a dismal grey sand desert, strewn with trash, and cursed with that same cruel and depressing climate - chilly grey cloud like Glasgow but without the chirpy locals

    Also shit food and a history of urgent child sacrifice

    One of the worst drives of my life was in the desert north of lima stuck with a mad driver driving like a maniac on a narrow road and swerving at the last minute to avoid oncoming traffic. And yes its bleak and the locals are miserable.
    I took this photo on a beach in deserty northern Peru as it seemed to summarise the whole place



    However the little colonial towns do have a certain charm, under those sparkling blue skies



    Very Quantum of Solace.
    Imagine living on that street in the second photo. Wake up, put your head out of the door, hang yourself
    Most people in the world live somewhere like that. It's Median Street, Planet Earth, 2024.
    Most people have never stayed in a hotel, owned a car, held a year's income in a bank account, etc.
    Yet suicide is more frequent in the USA and Canada than it is in Latin America.
    And the curious thing: that's with "Latin America" defined as Hispanophone and Lusophone America. There is a single country in South America that tops USA and Canada for self-topping: Guyana.
    As someone who constantly travels the world, I can (happily) reassure you that most people do NOT live on a street similar to that street in the 2nd photo: ie on a dirt road, in a concrete shack, in a shitty town in the middle of an awful foggy desert. Northern Peru, as we have established, is unusually hideous

    The global median person probably lives in a concrete apartment in a large city in India or China. Not beautiful, but not terrible
    As someone who has believed that travel broadens the mind, remembering the day that I promised myself to find time and space to travel (a promise I believe I have kept), as the 20-year-old self returning on a ferry across rough seas toward the white cliffs after the summer of 1983 spent mostly behind the iron curtain, your existence as the best travelled yet most self-evidently narrow-minded PB regular is always a distressing challenge to my world view.

    There is either something flawed in your character or something flawed in the privileged, entitled way that you travel that must surely prove, in the literal historical sense, the rule.

    I probably travel too much, to be honest, and sometimes I find myself disorientated- and I seek out something to stabilise me

    One of those things - these touchstones, these guiding lodes, these reassuring familiars - is the sure and certain knowledge that you are, and always will be, an embittered old twat whose only friend is a dog
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,210

    Robert Peston just announced that Sunak formally rules out a 2nd May election and Peston expects it in November-December

    Yes I know it is Robert Peston

    Am I in a time warp, or just very drunk. But didn’t you post exactly this last week and the week before?
    No - actually I did post a while ago that you made a strong case for the 2nd May and frankly I would be happy for it to have been on the 2nd May, as I indicated this morning

    However, this seems to be the first official confirmation the GE will not take place on the 2nd May as it is now widely reported across the media
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,671
    I expect the spineless gimp will make an excuse to hang onto January .
  • Options

    Taz said:

    I trust you will discuss this topic in a temperate way.

    I’m sure the discussion will be on a par with the standards set on the previous debates.

    I’m off to listen to Radiohead and enjoy a strawberry pizza.
    Strawberry on top of bacon?
    Ban this sick filth!

    When I become the country's first directly elected dictator I will class anyone who advocates pineapple on pizza as a member of an extremist organisation.
    Spawning dozens of organisations who advocated pizza under their pineapple instead.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,422
    Foxy said:

    Taz said:
    Thoughts and prayers for @MoonRabbit
    If Pesto thinks it’s ruled out, that makes it more likely, Shirley?
  • Options
    Just a note that Con chances of holding Great Yarmouth at the GE just rose markedly. The Cons retain their popular support to an unusual degree there but Brandon Lewis had become widely unpopular.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:
    Thoughts and prayers for @MoonRabbit
    If Pesto thinks it’s ruled out, that makes it more likely, Shirley?
    No, this time Sunak is on camera telling Peston that.
  • Options

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:
    Thoughts and prayers for @MoonRabbit
    If Pesto thinks it’s ruled out, that makes it more likely, Shirley?
    No, this time Sunak is on camera telling Peston that.
    If Sunak is saying it's ruled out, that makes it more likely, Shirley?
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    theProletheProle Posts: 1,011

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:
    Thoughts and prayers for @MoonRabbit
    If Pesto thinks it’s ruled out, that makes it more likely, Shirley?
    No, this time Sunak is on camera telling Peston that.
    Based on his recent track record, U-turn by Monday then?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    edited March 14

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:
    Thoughts and prayers for @MoonRabbit
    If Pesto thinks it’s ruled out, that makes it more likely, Shirley?
    No, this time Sunak is on camera telling Peston that.
    If Sunak is saying it's ruled out, that makes it more likely, Shirley?
    The reality is that if Sunak wanted to hold a May 2nd election he would have to call it next week.

    It ain't happening.
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    Foxy said:

    Taz said:
    Thoughts and prayers for @MoonRabbit
    If Pesto thinks it’s ruled out, that makes it more likely, Shirley?
    No, this time Sunak is on camera telling Peston that.
    If Sunak is saying it's ruled out, that makes it more likely, Shirley?
    The reality is that if Sunak wanted to hold a May 2nd election he would have to call it next week.

    It ain't happening.
    I know, it was a joke.

    This is a rare instance of reality and Sunak aligning.

    Even a broken clock ...
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    Israel should have our complete support until Hamas is completely destroyed.

    If people want to offer refuge to Palestinians outside the war zone, then that is entirely reasonable, but expecting Israel not to fight a war or to fight with its hands tied behind its back is not.

    War crimes are still something that should be at least sought to be avoided however. I know you have argued previously they do indeed attempt that, yet by your logic above that would be willfully fighting with hands behind their back.

    I don't think it is necessary to go so far as to suggest no limitations or scaling back is possible or reasonable, and still to support Israel in its ultimate goals here.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,422
    theProle said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:
    Thoughts and prayers for @MoonRabbit
    If Pesto thinks it’s ruled out, that makes it more likely, Shirley?
    No, this time Sunak is on camera telling Peston that.
    Based on his recent track record, U-turn by Monday then?
    Why the long, drawn out U turn?

    He’s got time to do at least 3 U turns by then.
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,194

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:
    Thoughts and prayers for @MoonRabbit
    If Pesto thinks it’s ruled out, that makes it more likely, Shirley?
    No, he's well informed. (By someone we can actually guess).

    His understanding and analysis though is poor. He seems to have gone his own way on that rather than the someone's.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 20,296
    edited March 14
    kle4 said:

    Israel should have our complete support until Hamas is completely destroyed.

    If people want to offer refuge to Palestinians outside the war zone, then that is entirely reasonable, but expecting Israel not to fight a war or to fight with its hands tied behind its back is not.

    War crimes are still something that should be at least sought to be avoided however. I know you have argued previously they do indeed attempt that, yet by your logic above that would be willfully fighting with hands behind their back.

    I don't think it is necessary to go so far as to suggest no limitations or scaling back is possible or reasonable, and still to support Israel in its ultimate goals here.
    As far as I'm concerned yes they are seeking to avoid war crimes.

    People seem to want them to avoid civilian suffering altogether, not just war crimes, which is certainly not possible though.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 26,553
    So with a May election ruled out anyone know a bookie with a market for Tories less than 100 seats
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Inter alia, the map/info functionaity on the iPhone camera is incredible

    Absolutely. The amount of evidence that the average crim carries around in his hip pocket is remarkable.
    The idea that this small object in my hand - my iphone - can tell me exactly where I was on 1.13pm on Sunday October 10th, 14 years ago, in remote northern Peru, down to a certain block on a certain street - it's incredible. Imagine trying to explain that to someone in the 19th century...

    All we need now is some way of determining each tiny individual spot on the planet, each 3m square, maybe 3 words, and incorporate THAT into the phone, and we are sorted
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,210

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:
    Thoughts and prayers for @MoonRabbit
    If Pesto thinks it’s ruled out, that makes it more likely, Shirley?
    No, this time Sunak is on camera telling Peston that.
    If Sunak is saying it's ruled out, that makes it more likely, Shirley?
    The reality is that if Sunak wanted to hold a May 2nd election he would have to call it next week.

    It ain't happening.
    I know, it was a joke.

    This is a rare instance of reality and Sunak aligning.

    Even a broken clock ...
    I suspect someone in Downing Street finally decided that Sunak needed to stop the speculation and is sensible to make a public statement accordingly

  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,543

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:
    Thoughts and prayers for @MoonRabbit
    If Pesto thinks it’s ruled out, that makes it more likely, Shirley?
    No, this time Sunak is on camera telling Peston that.
    If Sunak is saying it's ruled out, that makes it more likely, Shirley?
    Beat me to it.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,131
    edited March 14
    Taz said:
    I did like the btl comment, "May 3rd?"

    Reminds me of Tim Nice but Dim canvassing (unfortunately, only an edited scene appears to be on You Tube, so no link). From memory:

    "Hello, can I rely on your vote next Thursday?"
    "[No]"
    "Next Friday, then?"
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,330
    An issue with this is that, in any war of appreciable size, troops commit war crimes. Whatever the side.

    In WW2, Allied troops committed war crimes. They may have been smaller in scale, and less egregious, than those of the Japanese and Germans, but war crimes are sadly a part of war, even with well-trained troops.

    The way to prevent them is not to have wars.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905
    An ex Trident Sub Commander will have more time to post ?

    Navy fires USS Ohio submarine commanding officer
    https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4532429-navy-fires-uss-ohio-submarine-commanding-officer/
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743

    kle4 said:

    Israel should have our complete support until Hamas is completely destroyed.

    If people want to offer refuge to Palestinians outside the war zone, then that is entirely reasonable, but expecting Israel not to fight a war or to fight with its hands tied behind its back is not.

    War crimes are still something that should be at least sought to be avoided however. I know you have argued previously they do indeed attempt that, yet by your logic above that would be willfully fighting with hands behind their back.

    I don't think it is necessary to go so far as to suggest no limitations or scaling back is possible or reasonable, and still to support Israel in its ultimate goals here.
    As far as I'm concerned yes they are seeking to avoid war crimes.

    People seem to want them to avoid civilian suffering altogether, not just war crimes, which is certainly not possible though.
    Would you agree that denying water and food to a population under occupation is a war crime?
  • Options
    The only chance of a GE earlier than November is if Mr Sunak gets the boot from his own MPs before we electors can deliver it. Eight months to the election and that will positively fly by for those at No 10. Delay beyond that and the additional damage to the Cons will be well worth the wait
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,194
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Inter alia, the map/info functionaity on the iPhone camera is incredible

    Absolutely. The amount of evidence that the average crim carries around in his hip pocket is remarkable.
    The idea that this small object in my hand - my iphone - can tell me exactly where I was on 1.13pm on Sunday October 10th, 14 years ago, in remote northern Peru, down to a certain block on a certain street - it's incredible. Imagine trying to explain that to someone in the 19th century...

    All we need now is some way of determining each tiny individual spot on the planet, each 3m square, maybe 3 words, and incorporate THAT into the phone, and we are sorted
    IT WON'T WORK
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    eek said:

    So with a May election ruled out anyone know a bookie with a market for Tories less than 100 seats

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.219172883
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774
    - We need a way to get the Hester story off the front pages
    - How about if you bottle calling the election?
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    edited March 14

    ***LEGENDARY MODESTY KLAXON***

    I was right again.

    Rishi Sunak has ruled out the possibility of a general election taking place on 2 May - the day of the local elections - as had been widely speculated.

    Asked if this will be the election date by ITV, he said: "There won't be a general election on that day.

    "But when there is a general election, what matters is the choice."


    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-uk-politics-sunak-starmer-general-election-vote-labour-tories-speaker-sky-news-politics-hub-12593360

    BOTTLER RISHI :lol:
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,543
    And add another £5m to the pot. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68567484

    I really hope Sunak doesn't waste his time buying lottery tickets.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    edited March 14
    nico679 said:

    The Tories bought and paid for by Hester .

    Over 40% of their election funding will be down to him . Quite astonishing that this doesn’t seem to alarm people especially given his government contracts .

    Limits on donations need to be in place urgently, and comprehensive rules (no workarounds outside of genuine emergency situations a la Covid) against being involved in government business or peerages etc if you have made a major donation.

    That should not really be controversial, given that apparent bias (as well as actual bias), is a thing for a reason. It undermines good governance when people quire reasonably question decisions because huge sums of money are floating about between senior people and groups.

    And since, of course, any contract awards or honours are not given out because of money being received from that person/company, there should be no problem if they choose to prioritise either making personal/business donations to advance a party they support, or seeking to gain contracts/receive civic awards.
  • Options
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Israel should have our complete support until Hamas is completely destroyed.

    If people want to offer refuge to Palestinians outside the war zone, then that is entirely reasonable, but expecting Israel not to fight a war or to fight with its hands tied behind its back is not.

    War crimes are still something that should be at least sought to be avoided however. I know you have argued previously they do indeed attempt that, yet by your logic above that would be willfully fighting with hands behind their back.

    I don't think it is necessary to go so far as to suggest no limitations or scaling back is possible or reasonable, and still to support Israel in its ultimate goals here.
    As far as I'm concerned yes they are seeking to avoid war crimes.

    People seem to want them to avoid civilian suffering altogether, not just war crimes, which is certainly not possible though.
    Would you agree that denying water and food to a population under occupation is a war crime?
    No, sanctions and blockades are entirely legitimate in war.

    If Egypt or anyone else wants to provide food or water, then they can and Egypt borders Gaza, why should it just be Israel's responsibility?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    - We need a way to get the Hester story off the front pages
    - How about if you bottle calling the election?

    I find it hard to believe it was ever seriously on the table as an option - despite making some sense as they are doing worse and worse - but of course how it looks is all that matters.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187

    An issue with this is that, in any war of appreciable size, troops commit war crimes. Whatever the side.

    In WW2, Allied troops committed war crimes. They may have been smaller in scale, and less egregious, than those of the Japanese and Germans, but war crimes are sadly a part of war, even with well-trained troops.

    The way to prevent them is not to have wars.

    A fair point

    I have always found the concept of "war crimes" intrinsically weird. Like it's OK to kill people one way, but not another way? eg Tokyo bombing fine, Hiroshima maybe not, Blitz OK, Dresden evil, or was it all the other way round? It's ridiculous

    But if we must have the concept of war crimes then I am pretty sure both sides have committed them in this awful condlicr
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Israel should have our complete support until Hamas is completely destroyed.

    If people want to offer refuge to Palestinians outside the war zone, then that is entirely reasonable, but expecting Israel not to fight a war or to fight with its hands tied behind its back is not.

    War crimes are still something that should be at least sought to be avoided however. I know you have argued previously they do indeed attempt that, yet by your logic above that would be willfully fighting with hands behind their back.

    I don't think it is necessary to go so far as to suggest no limitations or scaling back is possible or reasonable, and still to support Israel in its ultimate goals here.
    As far as I'm concerned yes they are seeking to avoid war crimes.

    People seem to want them to avoid civilian suffering altogether, not just war crimes, which is certainly not possible though.
    Would you agree that denying water and food to a population under occupation is a war crime?
    Are you saying that Starmer condones war crimes?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    Foxy said:

    Taz said:
    Thoughts and prayers for @MoonRabbit
    And also for all today’s duff Cheltenham tips?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122

    Beth Rigby
    @BethRigby
    ·
    21m
    Another big beast of the Conservative Party announces they standing down at the next GE. Former cabinet minister
    @BrandonLewis
    to step down as MP for Great Yarmouth.

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    edited March 14

    ***LEGENDARY MODESTY KLAXON***

    I was right again.

    Rishi Sunak has ruled out the possibility of a general election taking place on 2 May - the day of the local elections - as had been widely speculated.

    Asked if this will be the election date by ITV, he said: "There won't be a general election on that day.

    "But when there is a general election, what matters is the choice."


    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-uk-politics-sunak-starmer-general-election-vote-labour-tories-speaker-sky-news-politics-hub-12593360

    “ ***LEGENDARY MODESTY KLAXON*** “

    With your new admin powers, you still can’t get this to be bigger, light up in rainbow colours and make the noise of a fog horn, then?

    It wasn’t Peston that got him to crumble, it was some strange “news from your region” presenters. And you are going on Rishi saying “obviously there won’t be a General Election on that day as well” through a wide grin? Why did he spend over five minutes avoiding answering the question? Why couldn’t have informed the country “there will be no May 2nd General Election” better planned and more Prime Ministerially, to the main press core - or at least from the Good Morning sofa rather than a milk shed in the West Country in rather a sort of “misspoke in a regional interview” moment?

    I still say May 2nd General Election. Because Everything is in place, and waiting till autumn makes no logical or political or electoral sense, he only needs to ask for the Lectern to be carried out with the correct crest.

    So there 😝
  • Options
    TrumanTruman Posts: 279

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Israel should have our complete support until Hamas is completely destroyed.

    If people want to offer refuge to Palestinians outside the war zone, then that is entirely reasonable, but expecting Israel not to fight a war or to fight with its hands tied behind its back is not.

    War crimes are still something that should be at least sought to be avoided however. I know you have argued previously they do indeed attempt that, yet by your logic above that would be willfully fighting with hands behind their back.

    I don't think it is necessary to go so far as to suggest no limitations or scaling back is possible or reasonable, and still to support Israel in its ultimate goals here.
    As far as I'm concerned yes they are seeking to avoid war crimes.

    People seem to want them to avoid civilian suffering altogether, not just war crimes, which is certainly not possible though.
    Would you agree that denying water and food to a population under occupation is a war crime?
    No, sanctions and blockades are entirely legitimate in war.

    If Egypt or anyone else wants to provide food or water, then they can and Egypt borders Gaza, why should it just be Israel's responsibility?
    You have a heart of stone my friend.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308
    .
    Donkeys said:

    Leon said:

    Donkeys said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    So my take on climate change is this: everywhere in the world is going to get hotter and hotter… apart from the UK which will, uniquely, contrive to get greyer and rainier and even more dismal

    Oh well. At least it should discourage the boat people

    I agree. Our winters are getting warmer but wetter and more miserable and our summers warmer but cloudier. Still one of the most dismal climates for its latitude in the world is Lima which despite being in the Tropics manages to be under constant grey 8 months of the year.
    Indeed. Lima manages to be climatically way more miserable than anywhere in the UK, which is quite a feat given its location. It always annoys me when I read history books or guide books that reference Lima and don’t mention this fairly notable affliction

    Why the fuck did the Spanish build their capital there? The incans very sensibly chose sunny and refreshing Cusco

    Possibly the worst “place” I have ever been - in terms of climate meeting geography - is the desert north of Lima. The Sechura. It’s a dismal grey sand desert, strewn with trash, and cursed with that same cruel and depressing climate - chilly grey cloud like Glasgow but without the chirpy locals

    Also shit food and a history of urgent child sacrifice

    One of the worst drives of my life was in the desert north of lima stuck with a mad driver driving like a maniac on a narrow road and swerving at the last minute to avoid oncoming traffic. And yes its bleak and the locals are miserable.
    I took this photo on a beach in deserty northern Peru as it seemed to summarise the whole place



    However the little colonial towns do have a certain charm, under those sparkling blue skies



    Very Quantum of Solace.
    Imagine living on that street in the second photo. Wake up, put your head out of the door, hang yourself
    Most people in the world live somewhere like that. It's Median Street, Planet Earth, 2024.
    Most people have never stayed in a hotel, owned a car, held a year's income in a bank account, etc.
    Yet suicide is more frequent in the USA and Canada than it is in Latin America.
    And the curious thing: that's with "Latin America" defined as Hispanophone and Lusophone America. There is a single country in South America that tops USA and Canada for self-topping: Guyana.
    As someone who constantly travels the world, I can (happily) reassure you that most people do NOT live on a street similar to that street in the 2nd photo: ie on a dirt road, in a concrete shack, in a shitty town in the middle of an awful foggy desert. Northern Peru, as we have established, is unusually hideous

    The global median person probably lives in a concrete apartment in a large city in India or China. Not beautiful, but not terrible
    Hotels and resorts aren't the world.
    Two thirds of the population of India, the world's most populous country, live outside of cities and so presumably not in apartments.
    That photo could easily be from many places in Brazil (even 30 miles from the capital) or Uganda (ditto).
    China, yes, mostly apartments - only a third live outside of cities.
    Depends how you define median. And cities. I would say they're in a shitty small town somewhere in the third world. Smartphones being the hard drug that's available.
    Well, if you think Uganda (GDP per capita $883) is anything like average for the world, you're insane.

    There are 8 billion people on Planet Earth (give or take).

    About 1.4bn of them are North America or Europe. They're pretty well off, on average. About 1.3bn are in China. They are dramatically richer than they were 20 years ago. And that's true of most of Asia.

    Median incomes and lifestyles have increased extraordinarily in the last 20 years. I mean some places, like rural Russia, have gone backwards. But most places are dramatically richer than they were.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    So the warmest day of the year so far ends in heavy showers, after a spectacular dawn, a decent morning, and a showery afternoon. Surely we’ll get some decent weather at home before I and my only friend in the whole wide world head off towards the mountains next month?
  • Options
    Truman said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Israel should have our complete support until Hamas is completely destroyed.

    If people want to offer refuge to Palestinians outside the war zone, then that is entirely reasonable, but expecting Israel not to fight a war or to fight with its hands tied behind its back is not.

    War crimes are still something that should be at least sought to be avoided however. I know you have argued previously they do indeed attempt that, yet by your logic above that would be willfully fighting with hands behind their back.

    I don't think it is necessary to go so far as to suggest no limitations or scaling back is possible or reasonable, and still to support Israel in its ultimate goals here.
    As far as I'm concerned yes they are seeking to avoid war crimes.

    People seem to want them to avoid civilian suffering altogether, not just war crimes, which is certainly not possible though.
    Would you agree that denying water and food to a population under occupation is a war crime?
    No, sanctions and blockades are entirely legitimate in war.

    If Egypt or anyone else wants to provide food or water, then they can and Egypt borders Gaza, why should it just be Israel's responsibility?
    You have a heart of stone my friend.
    Hey, I don't make the law!

    Its a matter of fact AFAIK.

    Many say that blockades should be a war crime, but that's totally different from saying they are.

    No Geneva Convention nor any other treaty bans blockades AFAIK.

    If its against the law, that's news to me.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    edited March 14


    Beth Rigby
    @BethRigby
    ·
    21m
    Another big beast of the Conservative Party announces they standing down at the next GE. Former cabinet minister
    @BrandonLewis
    to step down as MP for Great Yarmouth.

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

    Another oik bites the dust.

    I met Lewis in his ministerial office during the coalition years, accompanied by the Tory leader of my council who had forewarned me that the man was, in that Tory’s own words, “an oik”. And so he proved to be.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    Leon said:

    An issue with this is that, in any war of appreciable size, troops commit war crimes. Whatever the side.

    In WW2, Allied troops committed war crimes. They may have been smaller in scale, and less egregious, than those of the Japanese and Germans, but war crimes are sadly a part of war, even with well-trained troops.

    The way to prevent them is not to have wars.

    A fair point

    I have always found the concept of "war crimes" intrinsically weird. Like it's OK to kill people one way, but not another way? eg Tokyo bombing fine, Hiroshima maybe not, Blitz OK, Dresden evil, or was it all the other way round? It's ridiculous

    But if we must have the concept of war crimes then I am pretty sure both sides have committed them in this awful condlicr
    I think it was Jeremy Bowen reporting during the earlier part of the 2022 invasion in Ukraine who made a comment that all sides do commit war crimes during war. Even if there is an attempt by the high command to prevent it, incidents will happen.

    But also that there is a spectrum, such as those who genuinely seek to avoid things like murdering civilians, and those who deliberately engage in it . And that for example in the case of the Russian armed forces deliberate war crimes is very much part of their core strategies.

    So sure it is very muddy and at times somewhat ridiculous, but presumably it comes down to general intent.

    It's not really something kingdoms and armies used to concern themselves with very much I think. I recall reading By Sword and Fire: Cruelty and Atrocity in the Middle Ages, which was recommended by someone on here.


  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308
    darkage said:

    Israel should have our complete support until Hamas is completely destroyed.

    If people want to offer refuge to Palestinians outside the war zone, then that is entirely reasonable, but expecting Israel not to fight a war or to fight with its hands tied behind its back is not.

    I think that in reality Israel does have western support. The "concern" about the situation is a way of appeasing public opinion. It is unfortunate that the situation goes like this but it is largely the making of Hamas, and Israel are going to keep going until they are wiped out. It is hard to 'support' Israel given that the whole situation is a massive historical mess but the situation for them is existential and to this extent their position is understandable.
    The thing is, I suspect Israel is creating two new Hamas members for every one they kill.
  • Options
    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,767
    kle4 said:

    nico679 said:

    The Tories bought and paid for by Hester .

    Over 40% of their election funding will be down to him . Quite astonishing that this doesn’t seem to alarm people especially given his government contracts .

    Limits on donations need to be in place urgently, and comprehensive rules (no workarounds outside of genuine emergency situations a la Covid) against being involved in government business or peerages etc if you have made a major donation.

    That should not really be controversial, given that apparent bias (as well as actual bias), is a thing for a reason. It undermines good governance when people quire reasonably question decisions because huge sums of money are floating about between senior people and groups.

    And since, of course, any contract awards or honours are not given out because of money being received from that person/company, there should be no problem if they choose to prioritise either making personal/business donations to advance a party they support, or seeking to gain contracts/receive civic awards.
    I think we can confidently add political finance reform to the list of problems that won't be solved by the next Government. Quite apart from their being do nothings and desperate to brown nose the rich, it would presumably complicate the receipt of large donations from all sources, including the trades unions.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,210

    ***LEGENDARY MODESTY KLAXON***

    I was right again.

    Rishi Sunak has ruled out the possibility of a general election taking place on 2 May - the day of the local elections - as had been widely speculated.

    Asked if this will be the election date by ITV, he said: "There won't be a general election on that day.

    "But when there is a general election, what matters is the choice."


    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-uk-politics-sunak-starmer-general-election-vote-labour-tories-speaker-sky-news-politics-hub-12593360

    “ ***LEGENDARY MODESTY KLAXON*** “

    With your new admin powers, you still can’t get this to be bigger, light up in rainbow colours and make the noise of a fog horn, then?

    It wasn’t Peston that got him to crumble, it was some strange “news from your region people”. And you are going on Rishi saying “obviously there won’t be a General Election on that day as well” through a wide grin? Why did he spend over five minutes avoiding answering the question. Why couldn’t have informed the country “there will be no Mat 2nd General Election” more Prime Ministerialy, to the main press core, rather than a sort of “misspoke in a regional interview” moment?

    I still still say May 2nd General Election. Becuase Everything is in place, waiting till autumn makes no logical or political sense, he only needs to ask for the Lectern to be carried out with the correct crest.
    I fear you need to accept that Sunak's statement today ends a Spring election, but to be fair to you you did make an excellent case for it

    I really do not know how a November-December election plays out, not least as the US will be electing their POTUS, but Starmer will win a substantial majority no matter when it is held
  • Options
    TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    IanB2 said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    Donkeys said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    So my take on climate change is this: everywhere in the world is going to get hotter and hotter… apart from the UK which will, uniquely, contrive to get greyer and rainier and even more dismal

    Oh well. At least it should discourage the boat people

    I agree. Our winters are getting warmer but wetter and more miserable and our summers warmer but cloudier. Still one of the most dismal climates for its latitude in the world is Lima which despite being in the Tropics manages to be under constant grey 8 months of the year.
    Indeed. Lima manages to be climatically way more miserable than anywhere in the UK, which is quite a feat given its location. It always annoys me when I read history books or guide books that reference Lima and don’t mention this fairly notable affliction

    Why the fuck did the Spanish build their capital there? The incans very sensibly chose sunny and refreshing Cusco

    Possibly the worst “place” I have ever been - in terms of climate meeting geography - is the desert north of Lima. The Sechura. It’s a dismal grey sand desert, strewn with trash, and cursed with that same cruel and depressing climate - chilly grey cloud like Glasgow but without the chirpy locals

    Also shit food and a history of urgent child sacrifice

    One of the worst drives of my life was in the desert north of lima stuck with a mad driver driving like a maniac on a narrow road and swerving at the last minute to avoid oncoming traffic. And yes its bleak and the locals are miserable.
    I took this photo on a beach in deserty northern Peru as it seemed to summarise the whole place



    However the little colonial towns do have a certain charm, under those sparkling blue skies



    Very Quantum of Solace.
    Imagine living on that street in the second photo. Wake up, put your head out of the door, hang yourself
    Most people in the world live somewhere like that. It's Median Street, Planet Earth, 2024.
    Most people have never stayed in a hotel, owned a car, held a year's income in a bank account, etc.
    Yet suicide is more frequent in the USA and Canada than it is in Latin America.
    And the curious thing: that's with "Latin America" defined as Hispanophone and Lusophone America. There is a single country in South America that tops USA and Canada for self-topping: Guyana.
    As someone who constantly travels the world, I can (happily) reassure you that most people do NOT live on a street similar to that street in the 2nd photo: ie on a dirt road, in a concrete shack, in a shitty town in the middle of an awful foggy desert. Northern Peru, as we have established, is unusually hideous

    The global median person probably lives in a concrete apartment in a large city in India or China. Not beautiful, but not terrible
    As someone who has believed that travel broadens the mind, remembering the day that I promised myself to find time and space to travel (a promise I believe I have kept), as the 20-year-old self returning on a ferry across rough seas toward the white cliffs after the summer of 1983 spent mostly behind the iron curtain, your existence as the best travelled yet most self-evidently narrow-minded PB regular is always a distressing challenge to my world view.

    There is either something flawed in your character or something flawed in the privileged, entitled way that you travel that must surely prove, in the literal historical sense, the rule.

    I would not call Leon narrow minded at all. Sure he has different perspectives which is the opposite of narrow mindedness.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,194
    IanB2 said:

    So the warmest day of the year so far ends in heavy showers, after a spectacular dawn, a decent morning, and a showery afternoon. Surely we’ll get some decent weather at home before I and my only friend in the whole wide world head off towards the mountains next month?

    How's he travelling? Last spotted here he seemed in a suitcase!
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    pigeon said:

    kle4 said:

    nico679 said:

    The Tories bought and paid for by Hester .

    Over 40% of their election funding will be down to him . Quite astonishing that this doesn’t seem to alarm people especially given his government contracts .

    Limits on donations need to be in place urgently, and comprehensive rules (no workarounds outside of genuine emergency situations a la Covid) against being involved in government business or peerages etc if you have made a major donation.

    That should not really be controversial, given that apparent bias (as well as actual bias), is a thing for a reason. It undermines good governance when people quire reasonably question decisions because huge sums of money are floating about between senior people and groups.

    And since, of course, any contract awards or honours are not given out because of money being received from that person/company, there should be no problem if they choose to prioritise either making personal/business donations to advance a party they support, or seeking to gain contracts/receive civic awards.
    I think we can confidently add political finance reform to the list of problems that won't be solved by the next Government. Quite apart from their being do nothings and desperate to brown nose the rich, it would presumably complicate the receipt of large donations from all sources, including the trades unions.
    Yes, because to my mind unions would be included on limits for groups making donations. If the issue is groups exercising too much potential influence over a political party through whopping great piles of cash, union cash is not inherently better than corporate cash. Cut both parties off at the knees and learn new ways of doing things.

    It certainly won't be on the priority list, to be sure.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    rcs1000 said:

    .

    Donkeys said:

    Leon said:

    Donkeys said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    So my take on climate change is this: everywhere in the world is going to get hotter and hotter… apart from the UK which will, uniquely, contrive to get greyer and rainier and even more dismal

    Oh well. At least it should discourage the boat people

    I agree. Our winters are getting warmer but wetter and more miserable and our summers warmer but cloudier. Still one of the most dismal climates for its latitude in the world is Lima which despite being in the Tropics manages to be under constant grey 8 months of the year.
    Indeed. Lima manages to be climatically way more miserable than anywhere in the UK, which is quite a feat given its location. It always annoys me when I read history books or guide books that reference Lima and don’t mention this fairly notable affliction

    Why the fuck did the Spanish build their capital there? The incans very sensibly chose sunny and refreshing Cusco

    Possibly the worst “place” I have ever been - in terms of climate meeting geography - is the desert north of Lima. The Sechura. It’s a dismal grey sand desert, strewn with trash, and cursed with that same cruel and depressing climate - chilly grey cloud like Glasgow but without the chirpy locals

    Also shit food and a history of urgent child sacrifice

    One of the worst drives of my life was in the desert north of lima stuck with a mad driver driving like a maniac on a narrow road and swerving at the last minute to avoid oncoming traffic. And yes its bleak and the locals are miserable.
    I took this photo on a beach in deserty northern Peru as it seemed to summarise the whole place



    However the little colonial towns do have a certain charm, under those sparkling blue skies



    Very Quantum of Solace.
    Imagine living on that street in the second photo. Wake up, put your head out of the door, hang yourself
    Most people in the world live somewhere like that. It's Median Street, Planet Earth, 2024.
    Most people have never stayed in a hotel, owned a car, held a year's income in a bank account, etc.
    Yet suicide is more frequent in the USA and Canada than it is in Latin America.
    And the curious thing: that's with "Latin America" defined as Hispanophone and Lusophone America. There is a single country in South America that tops USA and Canada for self-topping: Guyana.
    As someone who constantly travels the world, I can (happily) reassure you that most people do NOT live on a street similar to that street in the 2nd photo: ie on a dirt road, in a concrete shack, in a shitty town in the middle of an awful foggy desert. Northern Peru, as we have established, is unusually hideous

    The global median person probably lives in a concrete apartment in a large city in India or China. Not beautiful, but not terrible
    Hotels and resorts aren't the world.
    Two thirds of the population of India, the world's most populous country, live outside of cities and so presumably not in apartments.
    That photo could easily be from many places in Brazil (even 30 miles from the capital) or Uganda (ditto).
    China, yes, mostly apartments - only a third live outside of cities.
    Depends how you define median. And cities. I would say they're in a shitty small town somewhere in the third world. Smartphones being the hard drug that's available.
    Well, if you think Uganda (GDP per capita $883) is anything like average for the world, you're insane.

    There are 8 billion people on Planet Earth (give or take).

    About 1.4bn of them are North America or Europe. They're pretty well off, on average. About 1.3bn are in China. They are dramatically richer than they were 20 years ago. And that's true of most of Asia.

    Median incomes and lifestyles have increased extraordinarily in the last 20 years. I mean some places, like rural Russia, have gone backwards. But most places are dramatically richer than they were.
    Quite so, quite so

    Just look at those two photos from Peru below, and you can see it. That's 14 years, from dirt roads to paved roads, from horrible concrete shacks to reasonably pleasant housing - and I have seen these changes with my own travelling eyes, in the past two or three decades, as have many of us

    Jeez, the world is a bit depressing at the moment, anyway, we don't need to ADD to the gloom and pretend that everyone in the world is living in a toilet on a dollar a day. It is not true, not any more, and that transformation is marvelous
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774
    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    Israel should have our complete support until Hamas is completely destroyed.

    If people want to offer refuge to Palestinians outside the war zone, then that is entirely reasonable, but expecting Israel not to fight a war or to fight with its hands tied behind its back is not.

    I think that in reality Israel does have western support. The "concern" about the situation is a way of appeasing public opinion. It is unfortunate that the situation goes like this but it is largely the making of Hamas, and Israel are going to keep going until they are wiped out. It is hard to 'support' Israel given that the whole situation is a massive historical mess but the situation for them is existential and to this extent their position is understandable.
    The thing is, I suspect Israel is creating two new Hamas members for every one they kill.
    It might be wrong to apply a 'war on terror' frame to a war that ultimately has more traditional aims.
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    Israel should have our complete support until Hamas is completely destroyed.

    If people want to offer refuge to Palestinians outside the war zone, then that is entirely reasonable, but expecting Israel not to fight a war or to fight with its hands tied behind its back is not.

    I think that in reality Israel does have western support. The "concern" about the situation is a way of appeasing public opinion. It is unfortunate that the situation goes like this but it is largely the making of Hamas, and Israel are going to keep going until they are wiped out. It is hard to 'support' Israel given that the whole situation is a massive historical mess but the situation for them is existential and to this extent their position is understandable.
    The thing is, I suspect Israel is creating two new Hamas members for every one they kill.
    I don't.

    If there's a ceasefire and Gaza goes back to being blockaded, with Hamas remaining in charge, and the Palestinian populace impoverished then that will create new Hamas members.

    If Hamas are destroyed and a post-Hamas Gaza gets a Marshall Plan style redevelopment whereby Palestinians can have a future, then that will give peace a chance.

    Give peace a chance, reject a ceasefire.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    Truman said:

    IanB2 said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    Donkeys said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    So my take on climate change is this: everywhere in the world is going to get hotter and hotter… apart from the UK which will, uniquely, contrive to get greyer and rainier and even more dismal

    Oh well. At least it should discourage the boat people

    I agree. Our winters are getting warmer but wetter and more miserable and our summers warmer but cloudier. Still one of the most dismal climates for its latitude in the world is Lima which despite being in the Tropics manages to be under constant grey 8 months of the year.
    Indeed. Lima manages to be climatically way more miserable than anywhere in the UK, which is quite a feat given its location. It always annoys me when I read history books or guide books that reference Lima and don’t mention this fairly notable affliction

    Why the fuck did the Spanish build their capital there? The incans very sensibly chose sunny and refreshing Cusco

    Possibly the worst “place” I have ever been - in terms of climate meeting geography - is the desert north of Lima. The Sechura. It’s a dismal grey sand desert, strewn with trash, and cursed with that same cruel and depressing climate - chilly grey cloud like Glasgow but without the chirpy locals

    Also shit food and a history of urgent child sacrifice

    One of the worst drives of my life was in the desert north of lima stuck with a mad driver driving like a maniac on a narrow road and swerving at the last minute to avoid oncoming traffic. And yes its bleak and the locals are miserable.
    I took this photo on a beach in deserty northern Peru as it seemed to summarise the whole place



    However the little colonial towns do have a certain charm, under those sparkling blue skies



    Very Quantum of Solace.
    Imagine living on that street in the second photo. Wake up, put your head out of the door, hang yourself
    Most people in the world live somewhere like that. It's Median Street, Planet Earth, 2024.
    Most people have never stayed in a hotel, owned a car, held a year's income in a bank account, etc.
    Yet suicide is more frequent in the USA and Canada than it is in Latin America.
    And the curious thing: that's with "Latin America" defined as Hispanophone and Lusophone America. There is a single country in South America that tops USA and Canada for self-topping: Guyana.
    As someone who constantly travels the world, I can (happily) reassure you that most people do NOT live on a street similar to that street in the 2nd photo: ie on a dirt road, in a concrete shack, in a shitty town in the middle of an awful foggy desert. Northern Peru, as we have established, is unusually hideous

    The global median person probably lives in a concrete apartment in a large city in India or China. Not beautiful, but not terrible
    As someone who has believed that travel broadens the mind, remembering the day that I promised myself to find time and space to travel (a promise I believe I have kept), as the 20-year-old self returning on a ferry across rough seas toward the white cliffs after the summer of 1983 spent mostly behind the iron curtain, your existence as the best travelled yet most self-evidently narrow-minded PB regular is always a distressing challenge to my world view.

    There is either something flawed in your character or something flawed in the privileged, entitled way that you travel that must surely prove, in the literal historical sense, the rule.

    I would not call Leon narrow minded at all. Sure he has different perspectives which is the opposite of narrow mindedness.
    Spassibo!
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    Israel should have our complete support until Hamas is completely destroyed.

    If people want to offer refuge to Palestinians outside the war zone, then that is entirely reasonable, but expecting Israel not to fight a war or to fight with its hands tied behind its back is not.

    I think that in reality Israel does have western support. The "concern" about the situation is a way of appeasing public opinion. It is unfortunate that the situation goes like this but it is largely the making of Hamas, and Israel are going to keep going until they are wiped out. It is hard to 'support' Israel given that the whole situation is a massive historical mess but the situation for them is existential and to this extent their position is understandable.
    The thing is, I suspect Israel is creating two new Hamas members for every one they kill.
    I don't.

    If there's a ceasefire and Gaza goes back to being blockaded, with Hamas remaining in charge, and the Palestinian populace impoverished then that will create new Hamas members.

    If Hamas are destroyed and a post-Hamas Gaza gets a Marshall Plan style redevelopment whereby Palestinians can have a future, then that will give peace a chance.

    Give peace a chance, reject a ceasefire.
    They will not be a "marshall Plan" unless Israel accepts there needs to be a two state solution.

    That means getting their current government out.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    Israel should have our complete support until Hamas is completely destroyed.

    If people want to offer refuge to Palestinians outside the war zone, then that is entirely reasonable, but expecting Israel not to fight a war or to fight with its hands tied behind its back is not.

    I think that in reality Israel does have western support. The "concern" about the situation is a way of appeasing public opinion. It is unfortunate that the situation goes like this but it is largely the making of Hamas, and Israel are going to keep going until they are wiped out. It is hard to 'support' Israel given that the whole situation is a massive historical mess but the situation for them is existential and to this extent their position is understandable.
    The thing is, I suspect Israel is creating two new Hamas members for every one they kill.
    They might even agree with that. But given that I believe most Palestinians supported what happened last year (even before Israel launched its retaliation) and thus holding back did not work, they might even still feel that vastly reducing the capacity of Hamas to strike now is worth the potential long term growth in support for Hamas, which they would hope to be better prepared for next time.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,330
    Leon said:

    An issue with this is that, in any war of appreciable size, troops commit war crimes. Whatever the side.

    In WW2, Allied troops committed war crimes. They may have been smaller in scale, and less egregious, than those of the Japanese and Germans, but war crimes are sadly a part of war, even with well-trained troops.

    The way to prevent them is not to have wars.

    A fair point

    I have always found the concept of "war crimes" intrinsically weird. Like it's OK to kill people one way, but not another way? eg Tokyo bombing fine, Hiroshima maybe not, Blitz OK, Dresden evil, or was it all the other way round? It's ridiculous

    But if we must have the concept of war crimes then I am pretty sure both sides have committed them in this awful condlicr
    I think it's a case of whether the 'event' in question can be seen as a valid thing to do in the war, to further military aims. A problem with Dresden AIUI is that it was *not* a military target. The bombing killed tens of thousands, and Harris saw the Dresden bombing, and others, as a 'terror' act to break the German population's will.

    Did bombing of Dresden end the war any earlier? Did it save Allied lives? I don't know. But there is significant doubt.

    And saying that the Germans performed the Blitz first is not an excuse IMO.

    But if I was in Churchill's place back then? I'd probably have said bomb the damned lot.

    At a smaller scale: rape. Put young, fearful soldiers amongst civilian populations, and you will get angels and devils. Any such rape is a crime. But when soldiers are ordered to rape civilians - and this has happened may times - that that puts it firmly into the 'war crimes' category. It does nothing to bring military victory nearer.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 20,296
    edited March 14

    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    Israel should have our complete support until Hamas is completely destroyed.

    If people want to offer refuge to Palestinians outside the war zone, then that is entirely reasonable, but expecting Israel not to fight a war or to fight with its hands tied behind its back is not.

    I think that in reality Israel does have western support. The "concern" about the situation is a way of appeasing public opinion. It is unfortunate that the situation goes like this but it is largely the making of Hamas, and Israel are going to keep going until they are wiped out. It is hard to 'support' Israel given that the whole situation is a massive historical mess but the situation for them is existential and to this extent their position is understandable.
    The thing is, I suspect Israel is creating two new Hamas members for every one they kill.
    I don't.

    If there's a ceasefire and Gaza goes back to being blockaded, with Hamas remaining in charge, and the Palestinian populace impoverished then that will create new Hamas members.

    If Hamas are destroyed and a post-Hamas Gaza gets a Marshall Plan style redevelopment whereby Palestinians can have a future, then that will give peace a chance.

    Give peace a chance, reject a ceasefire.
    They will not be a "marshall Plan" unless Israel accepts there needs to be a two state solution.

    That means getting their current government out.
    And Israel won't accept a two state solution as long as Hamas exists.

    Quite reasonably so too.

    Another reason to reject a ceasefire.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 13,311
    It's long been my thought Team Levido has looked at what happened to the New Zealand Labour Party in 2017.

    Two months before the election, they trailed the incumbent National Government by 23 points (47-24) and after another bad poll, the leader, Andrew Little, resigned and his deputy, one Jacinda Ardern, and one month later the 23 point gap had become a 7-point gap as the Greens dropped ten and Labour increased thirteen in a single month.

    We know the rest - at the 2017 election, National won most seats and votes but Ardern formed a Government backed by Winston Peters.

    A sudden change in leader galvanised the fortunes of a party on the ropes and brought back into the fold a significant group of parties who had switched to another party on the same side of the spectrum.

    Analogies never stand up to close inspection but I wonder....
  • Options
    agingjb2agingjb2 Posts: 103
    If the election takes place after the US presidential election, AND Trump wins that election, then I believe that there is a fair chance of a Civil Contingency, even in the UK, which would mean the delay of any election.

    Who should exercise executive power in the UK in that case is beyond my capacity to suggest counterfactuals.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,671
    Another so called win for the Queen of Trade Deals !

    Aussie beef exports to UK 17,000 tonnes.

    UK exports to Australia , a big fat zero !

    And the reason , the UK signed a deal that fxcked UK farmers and allowed the Aussies to draw out for years the approval process for beef imports .

    As with all the trade deals signed by the over promoted waste of space it’s all about garnering positive headlines from the right wing press .
This discussion has been closed.