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Record breaking Rishi – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,315

    I read that if Hunt or Reeves amends non dom status then upto 50 premier league players will leave the country

    Maybe but where are they going to get better salaries other in the middle east

    Good riddance.
    I can't say I have any sympathy with them either
    I can see it becoming harder for Premiership clubs to attract top players but those already in contract can't just flounce off, I assume.
    The argument is the Premier League far outpays others in wages but not of course the Saudi league

    Mind you there is a full team of Manchester United players who wouldn't be missed !!!!!!
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,101
    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Oh god we're not here again, are we? As it stood there were around 4m people (12% of the electorate) who wanted a Brexit referendum and used their democratic welly to bring it about. Exactly as it should be. Had Dave not agreed to the referendum there is every chance that the Cons wouldn't have won the GE. Dave did it for this reason. It's simple (and effective) politics.

    And he thought the answer, in a delivery was to have the referendum and win.

    Doesn’t take many butterflies in 52% vs 48%

    For example, at the start of the coalition, the Lib Dems blocked such a referendum which would have been a 60% vs 40% for Remain, minimum, then.
    Well his big error was in thinking that a large enough proportion of the people were vaguely intelligent. There was no provision for the idiots, who, it turns out, won it for Leave.
    Insulting the voters you don’t like, even harder, would have won it?

    Luigi Cadorna would have approved this message.
    Look we are where we are. A non-trivial proportion of Leave voters had no idea why they were voting for Leave nor the implications of having done so, and are likely the first to complain about the increased red tape and inconvenience as a result of having voted that way.

    That is just the plain god's honest truth. I mean you can call it an insult but it is the case. Of course you have the sincere but misguided folk, plenty on here, who shouted about unelected this or that, and about sovereignty, all rubbish but there was a coherence to it, if it did ignore the way the modern world operates, but I digress.

    I'm not insulting anyone by pointing out the truth.
    The Remain campaign warned us that Leave would mean wages going up. Some of us were prepared to take that risk.
    Thank goodness for you that risk didn't transpire

    "Real wages lower than 18 years ago and have fared much worse than any peer nation"


    You can see the wage squeeze from the UK being the employer of last resort for the EU after the financial crisis:

    image
    It is worth noting that that doesn't necessarily mean any wage squeeze has occurred at all.

    If you had 10 people earning $10, and then imported one person earning $1, then even if all the locals continued to earn exactly the same, then average wages would fall.

    ---

    The chart does also raises an interesting question: why have German incomes continued to rise, even though - since 2016 - they have been the location to which EU immigrants from poorer nations flocked?
    Perhaps this applies to other migrants to Germany as well as Ukrainians:

    The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) released figures showing that as of mid-February 2024, around 6 million Ukrainian war refugees were registered in Europe. The largest number were registered in Germany (1.13 million). This was followed by Poland (956,000), the Czech Republic (381,000), the UK (253,000), Spain (192,000), Italy (168,000) and the Netherlands (149,000).

    In comparison to Germany, many countries offer less support to the Ukrainian refugees they are hosting. Poland, for instance, only provides financial assistance for the first three months. Afterward, the refugees must mostly support themselves. The Czech Republic offers the equivalent of €130 per month after the first five months, and the UK pays even less.

    In both Poland and the Czech Republic, around two-thirds of Ukrainian refugees are currently working, and 50% are working in the UK –– compared to just 20% in Germany.


    https://www.dw.com/en/ukrainian-refugees-in-germany-why-few-work-for-a-living/a-68338226#:~:text=After Russia began its full,active in the labor market.&text=Germany has taken in over,214,000 of them were working.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,323

    eek said:

    eek said:

    I understand whips have been informed that there will be a bill next Wednesday (13th). All stages in one day.

    That would imply NICs, not income, because NICs requires separate legislation.

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1764735948305096744

    So a May election is still possible if things are being done quickly

    Merging NI and income tax?
    Nah any NI changes require a separate act..
    Edit - deleted Groundhog post
    Phil: "Do you ever have déjà vu, Mrs. Lancaster?"
    Mrs. Lancaster: "I don't think so, but I could check with the kitchen."

  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,478

    Lord Cameron - chortle.

    The man who wrecked the conservatives.

    No, that was the Brexiteers who said it would be the easiest deal in history/could be sorted out in an afternoon.
    It was. All it took was replacing Theresa May as PM and it could be wrapped up quickly without a backstop since we held the cards and got a good deal as a result.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/17/how-is-boris-johnson-brexit-deal-different-from-theresa-may
    "A good deal"

    *giggles*
    That's the other enduring advantage of the British.

    Our adorable sense of humour.

    (There will, I'm sure be a new broom / fresh start goodwill / not being nincompoops bounce to be had. Question is how well the next lot can leverage that into being a self-reinforcing virtuous circle.)
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,384
    .

    The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.

    Utterly barking.

    The CoE is essentially staffed by self-flaggelating Corbynites.

    However, in such a system, it's very difficult to make an opposing argument without being ostracised: I'm trying to do it at the moment on a "sustainability committee" for a major organisation that has loud, voluble and rather dominant people who want to advocate for banning private car ownership and enforce vegan-only diets at all events.
    I just think it’s batshit that a group that by definition is dedicated to observing and promoting a certain belief should decide that it’s something to apologise for).
    Scope creep is endemic now in what is assumed to be a shared belief system.

    One of my committee said proudly, "I am not of the Right", as if she expected people to agree with and applaud her. I was tempted to say, that's good; I'm not of the Left either, but decided that would be churlish.

    Instead, I'm dripping in objections to taking polarising positions on car ownership or proscribing people's diets, but I'm sure I've blown enough gentle whistles for her to have figured it out by now.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,315
    Sheffield United 0 Arsenal 3 after 14 minutes

    Shame all their effort will be in vain as City take the title again
  • Options
    Nigelb said:

    Some curious metadata from the Supreme Court minority opinion.
    https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1764720374107767190

    Seems to have started out as a dissent.

    I personally think that the unanimous judgment on this bodes rather ill for Trump on immunity.

    Reading between the lines, liberal justices aren't being too partisan on this - they have grumbles but ultimately it's unanimous on the central issue - and there may well be an expectation that at least four and potentially all six conservative justices won't be too partisan on immunity.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,821
    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Oh god we're not here again, are we? As it stood there were around 4m people (12% of the electorate) who wanted a Brexit referendum and used their democratic welly to bring it about. Exactly as it should be. Had Dave not agreed to the referendum there is every chance that the Cons wouldn't have won the GE. Dave did it for this reason. It's simple (and effective) politics.

    And he thought the answer, in a delivery was to have the referendum and win.

    Doesn’t take many butterflies in 52% vs 48%

    For example, at the start of the coalition, the Lib Dems blocked such a referendum which would have been a 60% vs 40% for Remain, minimum, then.
    Well his big error was in thinking that a large enough proportion of the people were vaguely intelligent. There was no provision for the idiots, who, it turns out, won it for Leave.
    Insulting the voters you don’t like, even harder, would have won it?

    Luigi Cadorna would have approved this message.
    Look we are where we are. A non-trivial proportion of Leave voters had no idea why they were voting for Leave nor the implications of having done so, and are likely the first to complain about the increased red tape and inconvenience as a result of having voted that way.

    That is just the plain god's honest truth. I mean you can call it an insult but it is the case. Of course you have the sincere but misguided folk, plenty on here, who shouted about unelected this or that, and about sovereignty, all rubbish but there was a coherence to it, if it did ignore the way the modern world operates, but I digress.

    I'm not insulting anyone by pointing out the truth.
    The Remain campaign warned us that Leave would mean wages going up. Some of us were prepared to take that risk.
    Thank goodness for you that risk didn't transpire

    "Real wages lower than 18 years ago and have fared much worse than any peer nation"


    Looks like the damage was done during the GFC, and the immediate aftermath. Set the baseline to 2014 and the blue curve would be almost identical to the thick black line.
    Take away the bits that go down and the graph goes up! 😎
  • Options
    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,941
    AlsoLei said:

    Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.

    Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.

    Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.

    Swings and roundabouts.

    I remember GBPUSD at more than $2, and I remember it briefly touching $1.05 when I was a kid. There are times when your country is going through a cyclical upswing, and there are times when the reverse is true.

    That doesn't mean there aren't secular themes - like ageing populations - but over medium time frames, great things can look pretty shit, and shit things can look pretty great. And many of the policies, of course, that are most painful in the short-term are great for the long-term, and vice versa.

    What are the upside gamechangers for the U.K. ?
    (Genuine question.)

    I was thinking about S Korea’s difficulties, and wondered if they might be in a sweet spot where AI/automation bails them out of the demographic crisis.
    That would work particularly well for an economy highly engaged in manufacturing.

    What’s the upside case for us ?
    The problem of no-one in a large nation wanting any babies is the problem. It only has a more babies solution. Babies are an end in themselves, not a means to an end. AI may be jolly clever but is not an end in itself, and I rather doubt if it is better at making babies than the tried and tested method.
    In Korea’s case it perhaps solves their looming economic problems, though.
    Manufacturing lends itself to automation.
    And AI lends itself to automating knowledge work...

    So, playing on Britain's strengths:
    * Pioneer the use of AI in our legal system - become the global venue of choice for cheaper, faster legal action
    * Extend / improve copyright to better protect the output of AI, at the expense of traditional media if necessary
    * Lower compliance costs for those who want to store and process large data sets
    * Get the FCA to approve and encourage AI finance products.

    (not entirely serious about all of these...)
    The Claude v3 model was announced a few hours ago and I was interested to spot a specific call-out in their paper "For example, while Claude models could support a lawyer or doctor, they should not be deployed instead of one"
  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,197

    Sheffield United 0 Arsenal 3 after 14 minutes

    Shame all their effort will be in vain as City take the title again

    You are correct. In the run in Arsenal will again fail to close out 2 or 3 games against 'small' teams which will cost them the title, whilst Man City come through to win as they did yesterday.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,726

    The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.

    Utterly barking.

    The CoE is essentially staffed by self-flaggelating Corbynites.

    However, in such a system, it's very difficult to make an opposing argument without being ostracised: I'm trying to do it at the moment on a "sustainability committee" for a major organisation that has loud, voluble and rather dominant people who want to advocate for banning private car ownership and enforce vegan-only diets at all events.
    I just think it’s batshit that a group that by definition is dedicated to observing and promoting a certain belief should decide that it’s something to apologise for).
    Or perhaps that's precisely why they should?

    If you accept their actions were wrong, and those wrong actions were central to their operations, then shouldn't they apologise and reform?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,687

    I read that if Hunt or Reeves amends non dom status then upto 50 premier league players will leave the country

    Maybe but where are they going to get better salaries other in the middle east

    Good riddance.
    I can't say I have any sympathy with them either
    I can see it becoming harder for Premiership clubs to attract top players but those already in contract can't just flounce off, I assume.
    The argument is the Premier League far outpays others in wages but not of course the Saudi league

    Mind you there is a full team of Manchester United players who wouldn't be missed !!!!!!
    Nonsense! I'd keep Luke Shaw (when he's not injured).
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,797
    edited March 4

    The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.

    Utterly barking.

    As an atheist it feels rather odd to see the Church seemingly disavow the concept of proselytizing. Is that really what they are doing? I'd understand it more if they said they apologised for efforts to force people and how they went about trying to convert, rather than apparently apologising for the goal of conversion.

    What do Black African Christians think about all this?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,687
    edited March 4

    .

    Nigelb said:

    ...

    I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.

    Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.

    Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.

    I am not aware of a big rise in the comparative value of Sterling taking place in the late 90s to 2010s.
    2000 to 2008 saw a large revaluation of sterling - from around $1.40 to $2.00.
    Then downhill.
    Great for those who wanted a holiday in the USA.

    Not so great for those who wanted to export to the USA.

    The UK's balance of payments went from a deficit of £3bn in 1998 to a deficit of £62bn in 2008.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/hbop/pnbp
    I see the fact New Labour were bequeathed a golden economy legacy (almost ideal, in fact) isn't getting much of a mention on here tonight.
    Will you be making the same claim in 10-20 years time about this election?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,797

    The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.

    Utterly barking.

    The CoE is essentially staffed by self-flaggelating Corbynites.

    However, in such a system, it's very difficult to make an opposing argument without being ostracised: I'm trying to do it at the moment on a "sustainability committee" for a major organisation that has loud, voluble and rather dominant people who want to advocate for banning private car ownership and enforce vegan-only diets at all events.
    I just think it’s batshit that a group that by definition is dedicated to observing and promoting a certain belief should decide that it’s something to apologise for).
    Or perhaps that's precisely why they should?

    If you accept their actions were wrong, and those wrong actions were central to their operations, then shouldn't they apologise and reform?
    But surely that summary suggests even the goal of converting people is wrong, not simply that their actions in pursuit of the goal was wrong? And if they think converting people to Christianity is wrong, what should they be doing instead? Or are they saying Africans should not have become Christians?

    I feel like I will need to read the report as surely they found a way of saying the way they went about it was wrong rather than that converting Africans was bad.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,726

    eek said:

    I understand whips have been informed that there will be a bill next Wednesday (13th). All stages in one day.

    That would imply NICs, not income, because NICs requires separate legislation.

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1764735948305096744

    So a May election is still possible if things are being done quickly

    Merging NI and income tax?
    Sh.. don't tell Malcolm.

    Seriously, merging them is the right long-term goal but it cannot be done in one move - that would imply a 12% tax rise for a lot of pensioners. Impact would dwarf removing the triple-lock. DM and Express would self-combust.
    It could and should be done in one move by Starmer if he wins the next election.
    Well, perhaps I am being a bit too hesitant. If you have a 400 seat majority why not go for it, eh?

    Anyone know how much it would raise? Enough to cut a few pence off the consequent standard ICT rate (of 32%) I'd warrant.
    Sounds like a good idea, merge the two and have a merged rate at 30%.

    That'd be a substantial tax cut for those working for a living, and those not working for their income can start to pay their own share instead.

    Win/win.
  • Options
    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,941
    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.

    Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.

    Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.

    Swings and roundabouts.

    I remember GBPUSD at more than $2, and I remember it briefly touching $1.05 when I was a kid. There are times when your country is going through a cyclical upswing, and there are times when the reverse is true.

    That doesn't mean there aren't secular themes - like ageing populations - but over medium time frames, great things can look pretty shit, and shit things can look pretty great. And many of the policies, of course, that are most painful in the short-term are great for the long-term, and vice versa.

    What are the upside gamechangers for the U.K. ?
    (Genuine question.)

    I was thinking about S Korea’s difficulties, and wondered if they might be in a sweet spot where AI/automation bails them out of the demographic crisis.
    That would work particularly well for an economy highly engaged in manufacturing.

    What’s the upside case for us ?
    The problem of no-one in a large nation wanting any babies is the problem. It only has a more babies solution. Babies are an end in themselves, not a means to an end. AI may be jolly clever but is not an end in itself, and I rather doubt if it is better at making babies than the tried and tested method.

    10 MAKE_BABIES()
    20 GOTO 10
    Easy.

    (and before any pedants join in - I do know that's not how BASIC works)
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,101

    .

    Nigelb said:

    ...

    I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.

    Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.

    Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.

    I am not aware of a big rise in the comparative value of Sterling taking place in the late 90s to 2010s.
    2000 to 2008 saw a large revaluation of sterling - from around $1.40 to $2.00.
    Then downhill.
    Great for those who wanted a holiday in the USA.

    Not so great for those who wanted to export to the USA.

    The UK's balance of payments went from a deficit of £3bn in 1998 to a deficit of £62bn in 2008.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/hbop/pnbp
    I see the fact New Labour were bequeathed a golden economy legacy (almost ideal, in fact) isn't getting much of a mention on here tonight.
    A problem being that an ideal economic scenario isn't necessarily what voters, or other vested interests, want.

    And Gordon Brown was happy to give them what they wanted while thinking that the economic consequences could be ignored.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226
    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.

    Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.

    Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.

    I had a fun trip to New York in 2009, two dollars to a pound. But the dollar was weak against many currencies then, not just the pound. Not sure that was Labour's doing.
    Didn’t mean to imply it was, just to express a hope that the wheel of fortune spins favourably for the UK soon.

    It’s been a pisspoor decade or so. It’s time for the next thing.
    Trouble is people might well say that the time you talk about was just a brief period of irrational exuberance before returning to post 1945 reality. And what's wrong with Vienna?
    Nothing, if you like mobility scooters and the orthopaedic shoe shops.
    It always comes top of quality of life measures. But it it's really true, why do so few Germans live there? (Only 70000)
    I've lived in Vienna. It's very atmospheric and at same time very dull. It's like you've checked into a grand old hotel where not much happens except maybe inside the rooms.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,864
    Evening all :)

    The Ipsos poll dominates the front page of the Evening Standard in London this evening.

    The supplementaries are well reported and frankly no one comes of it very well. Yes, there is no strong enthusiasm for Starmer and Labour but the sheer contempt in which Sunak and the Conservatives are held makes that pale into insignificance and may provide some cover for the first months of a Starmer Government as expectations are so low.

    Bouncy old Deltapoll is much better for the Conservatives with the lead cut to 14 but as uusual the publicised data tables tell us next to nothing.

    Redfield & Wilton's headline numbers are little changed - glancing through the data tables, it seems 65% of the current Reform vote is or are former 2019 Conservative voters but 35% isn't or aren't. The England sub sample comes out at Labour 44%, Conservative 24%, Reform 14%, LD 10%

    The swing from December 2019 would be 16.5% Conservative to Labour - Ipsos would be larger, Deltapoll smaller.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,315
    edited March 4

    I read that if Hunt or Reeves amends non dom status then upto 50 premier league players will leave the country

    Maybe but where are they going to get better salaries other in the middle east

    Good riddance.
    I can't say I have any sympathy with them either
    I can see it becoming harder for Premiership clubs to attract top players but those already in contract can't just flounce off, I assume.
    The argument is the Premier League far outpays others in wages but not of course the Saudi league

    Mind you there is a full team of Manchester United players who wouldn't be missed !!!!!!
    Nonsense! I'd keep Luke Shaw (when he's not injured).
    Martinez for me - Shaw if he can keep fit

    And Arsenal have 4 and Sheffield fans walking out

    This could be a huge defeat for Sheffield United
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,308

    eek said:

    I understand whips have been informed that there will be a bill next Wednesday (13th). All stages in one day.

    That would imply NICs, not income, because NICs requires separate legislation.

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1764735948305096744

    So a May election is still possible if things are being done quickly

    Merging NI and income tax?
    Sh.. don't tell Malcolm.

    Seriously, merging them is the right long-term goal but it cannot be done in one move - that would imply a 12% tax rise for a lot of pensioners. Impact would dwarf removing the triple-lock. DM and Express would self-combust.
    I agree, we would need a series of cuts in employee NI such as we had in the last budget before the long overdue consolidation could be done. Of course, that does not mean that we should not have additional taxes on investment income such as the old Investment Income Surcharge or treat dividend income in a way more akin to earned income so that the choice of small private companies as to whether or not to pay dividends or wages becomes more tax neutral than it is at the moment.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,726
    kle4 said:

    The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.

    Utterly barking.

    The CoE is essentially staffed by self-flaggelating Corbynites.

    However, in such a system, it's very difficult to make an opposing argument without being ostracised: I'm trying to do it at the moment on a "sustainability committee" for a major organisation that has loud, voluble and rather dominant people who want to advocate for banning private car ownership and enforce vegan-only diets at all events.
    I just think it’s batshit that a group that by definition is dedicated to observing and promoting a certain belief should decide that it’s something to apologise for).
    Or perhaps that's precisely why they should?

    If you accept their actions were wrong, and those wrong actions were central to their operations, then shouldn't they apologise and reform?
    But surely that summary suggests even the goal of converting people is wrong, not simply that their actions in pursuit of the goal was wrong? And if they think converting people to Christianity is wrong, what should they be doing instead? Or are they saying Africans should not have become Christians?

    I feel like I will need to read the report as surely they found a way of saying the way they went about it was wrong rather than that converting Africans was bad.
    There's a difference between proselytising in coexistence with others beliefs systems and going out of your way seeking to destroy others beliefs systems.
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 609
    edited March 4
    ohnotnow said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.

    Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.

    Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.

    Swings and roundabouts.

    I remember GBPUSD at more than $2, and I remember it briefly touching $1.05 when I was a kid. There are times when your country is going through a cyclical upswing, and there are times when the reverse is true.

    That doesn't mean there aren't secular themes - like ageing populations - but over medium time frames, great things can look pretty shit, and shit things can look pretty great. And many of the policies, of course, that are most painful in the short-term are great for the long-term, and vice versa.

    What are the upside gamechangers for the U.K. ?
    (Genuine question.)

    I was thinking about S Korea’s difficulties, and wondered if they might be in a sweet spot where AI/automation bails them out of the demographic crisis.
    That would work particularly well for an economy highly engaged in manufacturing.

    What’s the upside case for us ?
    The problem of no-one in a large nation wanting any babies is the problem. It only has a more babies solution. Babies are an end in themselves, not a means to an end. AI may be jolly clever but is not an end in itself, and I rather doubt if it is better at making babies than the tried and tested method.
    In Korea’s case it perhaps solves their looming economic problems, though.
    Manufacturing lends itself to automation.
    And AI lends itself to automating knowledge work...

    So, playing on Britain's strengths:
    * Pioneer the use of AI in our legal system - become the global venue of choice for cheaper, faster legal action
    * Extend / improve copyright to better protect the output of AI, at the expense of traditional media if necessary
    * Lower compliance costs for those who want to store and process large data sets
    * Get the FCA to approve and encourage AI finance products.

    (not entirely serious about all of these...)
    The Claude v3 model was announced a few hours ago and I was interested to spot a specific call-out in their paper "For example, while Claude models could support a lawyer or doctor, they should not be deployed instead of one"
    Both fields are great examples of how regulation prevents disruptive technology.

    There are already legal expert systems that can do a better job than any single judge or barrister. That's 1980s tech, and it's being used solely in extremely expensive training or research systems.

    I know of at least one well-established company working in this field that has all the building blocks ready to go within days in the event of the regulatory or competitive landscapes shifting even the tiniest bit...

    As for medical stuff, a radiologist friend tells me that there's been a torrent of AI hype in his field over the last few years. I'm sure other medical disciplines are the same.

    Whether or not we want to give this stuff free reign is a different matter - but the opportunity to make ourselves a leader by coming up with suitably light-touch regulatory frameworks is probably there if we want it.
  • Options
    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,141

    .

    Nigelb said:

    ...

    I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.

    Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.

    Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.

    I am not aware of a big rise in the comparative value of Sterling taking place in the late 90s to 2010s.
    2000 to 2008 saw a large revaluation of sterling - from around $1.40 to $2.00.
    Then downhill.
    Great for those who wanted a holiday in the USA.

    Not so great for those who wanted to export to the USA.

    The UK's balance of payments went from a deficit of £3bn in 1998 to a deficit of £62bn in 2008.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/hbop/pnbp
    I see the fact New Labour were bequeathed a golden economy legacy (almost ideal, in fact) isn't getting much of a mention on here tonight.
    I did bring that up earlier!
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001

    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Oh god we're not here again, are we? As it stood there were around 4m people (12% of the electorate) who wanted a Brexit referendum and used their democratic welly to bring it about. Exactly as it should be. Had Dave not agreed to the referendum there is every chance that the Cons wouldn't have won the GE. Dave did it for this reason. It's simple (and effective) politics.

    And he thought the answer, in a delivery was to have the referendum and win.

    Doesn’t take many butterflies in 52% vs 48%

    For example, at the start of the coalition, the Lib Dems blocked such a referendum which would have been a 60% vs 40% for Remain, minimum, then.
    Well his big error was in thinking that a large enough proportion of the people were vaguely intelligent. There was no provision for the idiots, who, it turns out, won it for Leave.
    Insulting the voters you don’t like, even harder, would have won it?

    Luigi Cadorna would have approved this message.
    Look we are where we are. A non-trivial proportion of Leave voters had no idea why they were voting for Leave nor the implications of having done so, and are likely the first to complain about the increased red tape and inconvenience as a result of having voted that way.

    That is just the plain god's honest truth. I mean you can call it an insult but it is the case. Of course you have the sincere but misguided folk, plenty on here, who shouted about unelected this or that, and about sovereignty, all rubbish but there was a coherence to it, if it did ignore the way the modern world operates, but I digress.

    I'm not insulting anyone by pointing out the truth.
    The Remain campaign warned us that Leave would mean wages going up. Some of us were prepared to take that risk.
    Thank goodness for you that risk didn't transpire

    "Real wages lower than 18 years ago and have fared much worse than any peer nation"


    You can see the wage squeeze from the UK being the employer of last resort for the EU after the financial crisis:

    image
    It is worth noting that that doesn't necessarily mean any wage squeeze has occurred at all.

    If you had 10 people earning $10, and then imported one person earning $1, then even if all the locals continued to earn exactly the same, then average wages would fall.

    ---

    The chart does also raises an interesting question: why have German incomes continued to rise, even though - since 2016 - they have been the location to which EU immigrants from poorer nations flocked?
    Perhaps this applies to other migrants to Germany as well as Ukrainians:

    The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) released figures showing that as of mid-February 2024, around 6 million Ukrainian war refugees were registered in Europe. The largest number were registered in Germany (1.13 million). This was followed by Poland (956,000), the Czech Republic (381,000), the UK (253,000), Spain (192,000), Italy (168,000) and the Netherlands (149,000).

    In comparison to Germany, many countries offer less support to the Ukrainian refugees they are hosting. Poland, for instance, only provides financial assistance for the first three months. Afterward, the refugees must mostly support themselves. The Czech Republic offers the equivalent of €130 per month after the first five months, and the UK pays even less.

    In both Poland and the Czech Republic, around two-thirds of Ukrainian refugees are currently working, and 50% are working in the UK –– compared to just 20% in Germany.


    https://www.dw.com/en/ukrainian-refugees-in-germany-why-few-work-for-a-living/a-68338226#:~:text=After Russia began its full,active in the labor market.&text=Germany has taken in over,214,000 of them were working.
    Interesting:
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,682

    The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.

    Utterly barking.

    I am not an Anglican, so it's no skin off my nose, but it isn't a daft report.

    The plan is for a billion pound fund aimed at Africa and the African diaspora, and invested in a way that is sympathetic rather than antagonistic to African culture. It is explicitly evangelical and Christian in aim.

    The future of the worldwide Anglican community is increasingly in the young African diaspora, with congregations here rather pale and elderly. It is an astute business decision to redirect in that way.

    Welcome to the African Century.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,797

    kle4 said:

    The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.

    Utterly barking.

    The CoE is essentially staffed by self-flaggelating Corbynites.

    However, in such a system, it's very difficult to make an opposing argument without being ostracised: I'm trying to do it at the moment on a "sustainability committee" for a major organisation that has loud, voluble and rather dominant people who want to advocate for banning private car ownership and enforce vegan-only diets at all events.
    I just think it’s batshit that a group that by definition is dedicated to observing and promoting a certain belief should decide that it’s something to apologise for).
    Or perhaps that's precisely why they should?

    If you accept their actions were wrong, and those wrong actions were central to their operations, then shouldn't they apologise and reform?
    But surely that summary suggests even the goal of converting people is wrong, not simply that their actions in pursuit of the goal was wrong? And if they think converting people to Christianity is wrong, what should they be doing instead? Or are they saying Africans should not have become Christians?

    I feel like I will need to read the report as surely they found a way of saying the way they went about it was wrong rather than that converting Africans was bad.
    There's a difference between proselytising in coexistence with others beliefs systems and going out of your way seeking to destroy others beliefs systems.
    That's why I assume the report has more nuance than the headlien summary.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,687
    Feels to me like momentum (small m) is gathering for a May election.

    We may all have to laud @MoonRabbit.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,308
    kle4 said:

    The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.

    Utterly barking.

    As an atheist it feels rather odd to see the Church seemingly disavow the concept of proselytizing. Is that really what they are doing? I'd understand it more if they said they apologised for efforts to force people and how they went about trying to convert, rather than apparently apologising for the goal of conversion.

    What do Black African Christians think about all this?
    It is bizarre. "Come, follow Me,” Jesus said, “and I will make you fishers of men.” Matthew 4.19.
  • Options
    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,507
    Two possibly relevant facts about South Korean fertility rates: First, some wealthy South Koreans are still sending expectant mothers to the US, so that their babies can be American citizens. (The practice has drawn criticism in both nations.)

    Second, East Asian women's fertility rates in the US are about the same as non-Hispanic whites, about 1.5 as I recall. As far as I know that is at least as true for Korean-Americans, as for other East Asians.)

    What I conclude, tentatively, from these facts is that some South Korean women don't want to have babies in a nation living next to Kim's North Korea. (One check on this would be to see if the fertility rate began to fall after the failure of an earlier government's "sunshine policy".)
  • Options
    TresTres Posts: 2,229
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.

    Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.

    Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.

    Swings and roundabouts.

    I remember GBPUSD at more than $2, and I remember it briefly touching $1.05 when I was a kid. There are times when your country is going through a cyclical upswing, and there are times when the reverse is true.

    That doesn't mean there aren't secular themes - like ageing populations - but over medium time frames, great things can look pretty shit, and shit things can look pretty great. And many of the policies, of course, that are most painful in the short-term are great for the long-term, and vice versa.

    What are the upside gamechangers for the U.K. ?
    (Genuine question.)

    I was thinking about S Korea’s difficulties, and wondered if they might be in a sweet spot where AI/automation bails them out of the demographic crisis.
    That would work particularly well for an economy highly engaged in manufacturing.

    What’s the upside case for us ?
    rejoining the single market
    axing the green belt
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,308

    Feels to me like momentum (small m) is gathering for a May election.

    We may all have to laud @MoonRabbit.

    I really don't see how you are getting that. A May election at the moment is asking the turkeys to not only vote for an early Christmas but to lie on the cutting board with their gizzards stretched.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,682
    kle4 said:

    The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.

    Utterly barking.

    The CoE is essentially staffed by self-flaggelating Corbynites.

    However, in such a system, it's very difficult to make an opposing argument without being ostracised: I'm trying to do it at the moment on a "sustainability committee" for a major organisation that has loud, voluble and rather dominant people who want to advocate for banning private car ownership and enforce vegan-only diets at all events.
    I just think it’s batshit that a group that by definition is dedicated to observing and promoting a certain belief should decide that it’s something to apologise for).
    Or perhaps that's precisely why they should?

    If you accept their actions were wrong, and those wrong actions were central to their operations, then shouldn't they apologise and reform?
    But surely that summary suggests even the goal of converting people is wrong, not simply that their actions in pursuit of the goal was wrong? And if they think converting people to Christianity is wrong, what should they be doing instead? Or are they saying Africans should not have become Christians?

    I feel like I will need to read the report as surely they found a way of saying the way they went about it was wrong rather than that converting Africans was bad.
    The link to the report is in the first paragraph here:

    https://www.churchofengland.org/media/press-releases/church-commissioners-england-warmly-welcomes-oversight-groups-report

  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,197

    Feels to me like momentum (small m) is gathering for a May election.

    We may all have to laud @MoonRabbit.

    I believe that I may have mentioned the possibility of this on occasion too but I agree 👍 to @MoonRabbit
  • Options
    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,941
    ohnotnow said:

    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.

    Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.

    Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.

    Swings and roundabouts.

    I remember GBPUSD at more than $2, and I remember it briefly touching $1.05 when I was a kid. There are times when your country is going through a cyclical upswing, and there are times when the reverse is true.

    That doesn't mean there aren't secular themes - like ageing populations - but over medium time frames, great things can look pretty shit, and shit things can look pretty great. And many of the policies, of course, that are most painful in the short-term are great for the long-term, and vice versa.

    What are the upside gamechangers for the U.K. ?
    (Genuine question.)

    I was thinking about S Korea’s difficulties, and wondered if they might be in a sweet spot where AI/automation bails them out of the demographic crisis.
    That would work particularly well for an economy highly engaged in manufacturing.

    What’s the upside case for us ?
    The problem of no-one in a large nation wanting any babies is the problem. It only has a more babies solution. Babies are an end in themselves, not a means to an end. AI may be jolly clever but is not an end in itself, and I rather doubt if it is better at making babies than the tried and tested method.

    10 MAKE_BABIES()
    20 GOTO 10
    Easy.

    (and before any pedants join in - I do know that's not how BASIC works)
    Has the 'hover over likes' stopped showing people's names? I used to enjoy seeing who 'got' my obscure geek/nerd references. I blame Rishi.

    Might as well.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226

    Nigelb said:

    Some curious metadata from the Supreme Court minority opinion.
    https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1764720374107767190

    Seems to have started out as a dissent.

    I personally think that the unanimous judgment on this bodes rather ill for Trump on immunity.

    Reading between the lines, liberal justices aren't being too partisan on this - they have grumbles but ultimately it's unanimous on the central issue - and there may well be an expectation that at least four and potentially all six conservative justices won't be too partisan on immunity.
    That should be 9/0 the other way.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,308
    Arsenal definitely taking their foot off the gas. 14 minutes to get the 5th goal.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Some curious metadata from the Supreme Court minority opinion.
    https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1764720374107767190

    Seems to have started out as a dissent.

    I personally think that the unanimous judgment on this bodes rather ill for Trump on immunity.

    Reading between the lines, liberal justices aren't being too partisan on this - they have grumbles but ultimately it's unanimous on the central issue - and there may well be an expectation that at least four and potentially all six conservative justices won't be too partisan on immunity.
    That should be 9/0 the other way.
    The Supreme Court, I mean, not the Arsenal game.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,384

    .

    Nigelb said:

    ...

    I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.

    Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.

    Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.

    I am not aware of a big rise in the comparative value of Sterling taking place in the late 90s to 2010s.
    2000 to 2008 saw a large revaluation of sterling - from around $1.40 to $2.00.
    Then downhill.
    Great for those who wanted a holiday in the USA.

    Not so great for those who wanted to export to the USA.

    The UK's balance of payments went from a deficit of £3bn in 1998 to a deficit of £62bn in 2008.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/hbop/pnbp
    I see the fact New Labour were bequeathed a golden economy legacy (almost ideal, in fact) isn't getting much of a mention on here tonight.
    Will you be making the same claim in 10-20 years time about this election?
    No, but for Covid it could have been possible though.

    Admittedly, Johnson would have self-destructed anyway but the finances could have been good.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,323
    DavidL said:

    Feels to me like momentum (small m) is gathering for a May election.

    We may all have to laud @MoonRabbit.

    I really don't see how you are getting that. A May election at the moment is asking the turkeys to not only vote for an early Christmas but to lie on the cutting board with their gizzards stretched.
    Is it vegan? :lol:
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,726
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.

    Utterly barking.

    The CoE is essentially staffed by self-flaggelating Corbynites.

    However, in such a system, it's very difficult to make an opposing argument without being ostracised: I'm trying to do it at the moment on a "sustainability committee" for a major organisation that has loud, voluble and rather dominant people who want to advocate for banning private car ownership and enforce vegan-only diets at all events.
    I just think it’s batshit that a group that by definition is dedicated to observing and promoting a certain belief should decide that it’s something to apologise for).
    Or perhaps that's precisely why they should?

    If you accept their actions were wrong, and those wrong actions were central to their operations, then shouldn't they apologise and reform?
    But surely that summary suggests even the goal of converting people is wrong, not simply that their actions in pursuit of the goal was wrong? And if they think converting people to Christianity is wrong, what should they be doing instead? Or are they saying Africans should not have become Christians?

    I feel like I will need to read the report as surely they found a way of saying the way they went about it was wrong rather than that converting Africans was bad.
    There's a difference between proselytising in coexistence with others beliefs systems and going out of your way seeking to destroy others beliefs systems.
    That's why I assume the report has more nuance than the headlien summary.
    Not seen the headline summary, I'm just going off the words @Gardenwalker quoted: "seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems"

    That bloody well is something they should apologise for.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,801

    DavidL said:

    Feels to me like momentum (small m) is gathering for a May election.

    We may all have to laud @MoonRabbit.

    I really don't see how you are getting that. A May election at the moment is asking the turkeys to not only vote for an early Christmas but to lie on the cutting board with their gizzards stretched.
    Is it vegan? :lol:
    Only if free range and organically fed to begin with.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,384
    Foxy said:

    The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.

    Utterly barking.

    I am not an Anglican, so it's no skin off my nose, but it isn't a daft report.

    The plan is for a billion pound fund aimed at Africa and the African diaspora, and invested in a way that is sympathetic rather than antagonistic to African culture. It is explicitly evangelical and Christian in aim.

    The future of the worldwide Anglican community is increasingly in the young African diaspora, with congregations here rather pale and elderly. It is an astute business decision to redirect in that way.

    Welcome to the African Century.
    Then, call it a business investment plan to strengthen relations. We've neglected our friends for too long etc..

    Naming it "reparations" just pisses people off and opens up a wholly toxic can of worms.
  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,197
    DavidL said:

    Feels to me like momentum (small m) is gathering for a May election.

    We may all have to laud @MoonRabbit.

    I really don't see how you are getting that. A May election at the moment is asking the turkeys to not only vote for an early Christmas but to lie on the cutting board with their gizzards stretched.
    It's only going to get worse for CON. inflation will start to rise again in the autumn so interest rates aren't coming down. More people will be remortgaging onto much higher rate mortgages. Gloom all round.

    Rishi has to go for May.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,682

    Foxy said:

    The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.

    Utterly barking.

    I am not an Anglican, so it's no skin off my nose, but it isn't a daft report.

    The plan is for a billion pound fund aimed at Africa and the African diaspora, and invested in a way that is sympathetic rather than antagonistic to African culture. It is explicitly evangelical and Christian in aim.

    The future of the worldwide Anglican community is increasingly in the young African diaspora, with congregations here rather pale and elderly. It is an astute business decision to redirect in that way.

    Welcome to the African Century.
    Then, call it a business investment plan to strengthen relations. We've neglected our friends for too long etc..

    Naming it "reparations" just pisses people off and opens up a wholly toxic can of worms.
    It depends whether you are the target market or not.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    viewcode said:

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Oh god we're not here again, are we? As it stood there were around 4m people (12% of the electorate) who wanted a Brexit referendum and used their democratic welly to bring it about. Exactly as it should be. Had Dave not agreed to the referendum there is every chance that the Cons wouldn't have won the GE. Dave did it for this reason. It's simple (and effective) politics.

    And he thought the answer, in a delivery was to have the referendum and win.

    Doesn’t take many butterflies in 52% vs 48%

    For example, at the start of the coalition, the Lib Dems blocked such a referendum which would have been a 60% vs 40% for Remain, minimum, then.
    Well his big error was in thinking that a large enough proportion of the people were vaguely intelligent. There was no provision for the idiots, who, it turns out, won it for Leave.
    Insulting the voters you don’t like, even harder, would have won it?

    Luigi Cadorna would have approved this message.
    Look we are where we are. A non-trivial proportion of Leave voters had no idea why they were voting for Leave nor the implications of having done so, and are likely the first to complain about the increased red tape and inconvenience as a result of having voted that way.

    That is just the plain god's honest truth. I mean you can call it an insult but it is the case. Of course you have the sincere but misguided folk, plenty on here, who shouted about unelected this or that, and about sovereignty, all rubbish but there was a coherence to it, if it did ignore the way the modern world operates, but I digress.

    I'm not insulting anyone by pointing out the truth.
    The Remain campaign warned us that Leave would mean wages going up. Some of us were prepared to take that risk.
    Thank goodness for you that risk didn't transpire

    "Real wages lower than 18 years ago and have fared much worse than any peer nation"


    Looks like the damage was done during the GFC, and the immediate aftermath. Set the baseline to 2014 and the blue curve would be almost identical to the thick black line.
    Take away the bits that go down and the graph goes up! 😎
    The comment was about the effects of Brexit, so the reference point should be at that date.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,384
    ohnotnow said:

    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.

    Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.

    Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.

    Swings and roundabouts.

    I remember GBPUSD at more than $2, and I remember it briefly touching $1.05 when I was a kid. There are times when your country is going through a cyclical upswing, and there are times when the reverse is true.

    That doesn't mean there aren't secular themes - like ageing populations - but over medium time frames, great things can look pretty shit, and shit things can look pretty great. And many of the policies, of course, that are most painful in the short-term are great for the long-term, and vice versa.

    What are the upside gamechangers for the U.K. ?
    (Genuine question.)

    I was thinking about S Korea’s difficulties, and wondered if they might be in a sweet spot where AI/automation bails them out of the demographic crisis.
    That would work particularly well for an economy highly engaged in manufacturing.

    What’s the upside case for us ?
    The problem of no-one in a large nation wanting any babies is the problem. It only has a more babies solution. Babies are an end in themselves, not a means to an end. AI may be jolly clever but is not an end in itself, and I rather doubt if it is better at making babies than the tried and tested method.

    10 MAKE_BABIES()
    20 GOTO 10
    Easy.

    (and before any pedants join in - I do know that's not how BASIC works)
    That would create an infinity loop.

    Unless I was a Haredi Jew I'd probably want a breakclause: 15 IF BABIES() =>3 THEN END

    God, I love BASIC.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,323
    ohnotnow said:

    ohnotnow said:

    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.

    Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.

    Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.

    Swings and roundabouts.

    I remember GBPUSD at more than $2, and I remember it briefly touching $1.05 when I was a kid. There are times when your country is going through a cyclical upswing, and there are times when the reverse is true.

    That doesn't mean there aren't secular themes - like ageing populations - but over medium time frames, great things can look pretty shit, and shit things can look pretty great. And many of the policies, of course, that are most painful in the short-term are great for the long-term, and vice versa.

    What are the upside gamechangers for the U.K. ?
    (Genuine question.)

    I was thinking about S Korea’s difficulties, and wondered if they might be in a sweet spot where AI/automation bails them out of the demographic crisis.
    That would work particularly well for an economy highly engaged in manufacturing.

    What’s the upside case for us ?
    The problem of no-one in a large nation wanting any babies is the problem. It only has a more babies solution. Babies are an end in themselves, not a means to an end. AI may be jolly clever but is not an end in itself, and I rather doubt if it is better at making babies than the tried and tested method.

    10 MAKE_BABIES()
    20 GOTO 10
    Easy.

    (and before any pedants join in - I do know that's not how BASIC works)
    Has the 'hover over likes' stopped showing people's names? I used to enjoy seeing who 'got' my obscure geek/nerd references. I blame Rishi.

    Might as well.
    Yes, I just noticed that too!
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,647
    Tres said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.

    Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.

    Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.

    Swings and roundabouts.

    I remember GBPUSD at more than $2, and I remember it briefly touching $1.05 when I was a kid. There are times when your country is going through a cyclical upswing, and there are times when the reverse is true.

    That doesn't mean there aren't secular themes - like ageing populations - but over medium time frames, great things can look pretty shit, and shit things can look pretty great. And many of the policies, of course, that are most painful in the short-term are great for the long-term, and vice versa.

    What are the upside gamechangers for the U.K. ?
    (Genuine question.)

    I was thinking about S Korea’s difficulties, and wondered if they might be in a sweet spot where AI/automation bails them out of the demographic crisis.
    That would work particularly well for an economy highly engaged in manufacturing.

    What’s the upside case for us ?
    rejoining the single market
    axing the green belt
    - Big increase in child benefit, with no taper until 80k
    - Compulsory free government funded nursery school starting from 2 years (like école maternelle), with free infant childcare
    - reduced tax rates for parents of dependent children
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,977
    DavidL said:

    Feels to me like momentum (small m) is gathering for a May election.

    We may all have to laud @MoonRabbit.

    I really don't see how you are getting that. A May election at the moment is asking the turkeys to not only vote for an early Christmas but to lie on the cutting board with their gizzards stretched.
    All turkeys die in December.

    Only a few die in May.

    The logic is simple, and obvious. Only somebody really dense, like Sunak maybe, can't see it...
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,384
    kle4 said:

    The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.

    Utterly barking.

    As an atheist it feels rather odd to see the Church seemingly disavow the concept of proselytizing. Is that really what they are doing? I'd understand it more if they said they apologised for efforts to force people and how they went about trying to convert, rather than apparently apologising for the goal of conversion.

    What do Black African Christians think about all this?
    You can't blame them. They want to proselytize about something that gets a bit of traction.

    I can't think of a political gap that's bigger than between CoE clergy and its laity.

    It's remarkable both sides keep turning up.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,122

    ohnotnow said:

    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.

    Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.

    Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.

    Swings and roundabouts.

    I remember GBPUSD at more than $2, and I remember it briefly touching $1.05 when I was a kid. There are times when your country is going through a cyclical upswing, and there are times when the reverse is true.

    That doesn't mean there aren't secular themes - like ageing populations - but over medium time frames, great things can look pretty shit, and shit things can look pretty great. And many of the policies, of course, that are most painful in the short-term are great for the long-term, and vice versa.

    What are the upside gamechangers for the U.K. ?
    (Genuine question.)

    I was thinking about S Korea’s difficulties, and wondered if they might be in a sweet spot where AI/automation bails them out of the demographic crisis.
    That would work particularly well for an economy highly engaged in manufacturing.

    What’s the upside case for us ?
    The problem of no-one in a large nation wanting any babies is the problem. It only has a more babies solution. Babies are an end in themselves, not a means to an end. AI may be jolly clever but is not an end in itself, and I rather doubt if it is better at making babies than the tried and tested method.

    10 MAKE_BABIES()
    20 GOTO 10
    Easy.

    (and before any pedants join in - I do know that's not how BASIC works)
    That would create an infinity loop.

    Unless I was a Haredi Jew I'd probably want a breakclause: 15 IF BABIES() =>3 THEN END

    God, I love BASIC.
    For the authentic 1980s BASIC experience it should be

    10 PRINT "I AM SKILL"
    20 GOTO 10
  • Options
    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,507
    Completely off topic, but fun: "DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK, Calif. — If it weren’t for all the floating, the paddling, the sloshing around, the lake smack in the middle of this desert might be mistaken for a mirage.

    This is the driest place in America, a place famous for sweltering 120-degree summers, a place whose very name suggests inhospitableness. It is perhaps the last corner of the continent one might expect to stumble upon miles of water.

    But Lake Manly is no illusion. Instead, it’s more like a ghost from Death Valley’s prehistoric past, temporarily resurrected by the fast-changing, climate-churning present."
    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2024/03/01/death-valley-lake-california-rain/

    (Business tip: If you know this lake is about to appear again, stock up on kayaks.)
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,687

    .

    Nigelb said:

    ...

    I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.

    Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.

    Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.

    I am not aware of a big rise in the comparative value of Sterling taking place in the late 90s to 2010s.
    2000 to 2008 saw a large revaluation of sterling - from around $1.40 to $2.00.
    Then downhill.
    Great for those who wanted a holiday in the USA.

    Not so great for those who wanted to export to the USA.

    The UK's balance of payments went from a deficit of £3bn in 1998 to a deficit of £62bn in 2008.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/hbop/pnbp
    I see the fact New Labour were bequeathed a golden economy legacy (almost ideal, in fact) isn't getting much of a mention on here tonight.
    Will you be making the same claim in 10-20 years time about this election?
    No, but for Covid it could have been possible though.

    Admittedly, Johnson would have self-destructed anyway but the finances could have been good.
    Labour faced the fall-out from 9/11 and the GFC; the Tories had to deal with Covid and the Ukraine War.

    Any party in power for more than one term is likely to face major challenges - they just have to be dealt with.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,384

    ohnotnow said:

    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.

    Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.

    Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.

    Swings and roundabouts.

    I remember GBPUSD at more than $2, and I remember it briefly touching $1.05 when I was a kid. There are times when your country is going through a cyclical upswing, and there are times when the reverse is true.

    That doesn't mean there aren't secular themes - like ageing populations - but over medium time frames, great things can look pretty shit, and shit things can look pretty great. And many of the policies, of course, that are most painful in the short-term are great for the long-term, and vice versa.

    What are the upside gamechangers for the U.K. ?
    (Genuine question.)

    I was thinking about S Korea’s difficulties, and wondered if they might be in a sweet spot where AI/automation bails them out of the demographic crisis.
    That would work particularly well for an economy highly engaged in manufacturing.

    What’s the upside case for us ?
    The problem of no-one in a large nation wanting any babies is the problem. It only has a more babies solution. Babies are an end in themselves, not a means to an end. AI may be jolly clever but is not an end in itself, and I rather doubt if it is better at making babies than the tried and tested method.

    10 MAKE_BABIES()
    20 GOTO 10
    Easy.

    (and before any pedants join in - I do know that's not how BASIC works)
    That would create an infinity loop.

    Unless I was a Haredi Jew I'd probably want a breakclause: 15 IF BABIES() =>3 THEN END

    God, I love BASIC.
    For the authentic 1980s BASIC experience it should be

    10 PRINT "I AM SKILL"
    20 GOTO 10
    And, then, you hit escape after the screen has printed that 84 times before your C64 blows up.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,726
    edited March 4

    ohnotnow said:

    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.

    Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.

    Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.

    Swings and roundabouts.

    I remember GBPUSD at more than $2, and I remember it briefly touching $1.05 when I was a kid. There are times when your country is going through a cyclical upswing, and there are times when the reverse is true.

    That doesn't mean there aren't secular themes - like ageing populations - but over medium time frames, great things can look pretty shit, and shit things can look pretty great. And many of the policies, of course, that are most painful in the short-term are great for the long-term, and vice versa.

    What are the upside gamechangers for the U.K. ?
    (Genuine question.)

    I was thinking about S Korea’s difficulties, and wondered if they might be in a sweet spot where AI/automation bails them out of the demographic crisis.
    That would work particularly well for an economy highly engaged in manufacturing.

    What’s the upside case for us ?
    The problem of no-one in a large nation wanting any babies is the problem. It only has a more babies solution. Babies are an end in themselves, not a means to an end. AI may be jolly clever but is not an end in itself, and I rather doubt if it is better at making babies than the tried and tested method.

    10 MAKE_BABIES()
    20 GOTO 10
    Easy.

    (and before any pedants join in - I do know that's not how BASIC works)
    That would create an infinity loop.

    Unless I was a Haredi Jew I'd probably want a breakclause: 15 IF BABIES() =>3 THEN END

    God, I love BASIC.
    For the authentic 1980s BASIC experience it should be

    10 PRINT "I AM SKILL"
    20 GOTO 10
    10 PRINT "HELLO WORLD"
    20 GOTO 10

    Seems more authentic.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,384
    DavidL said:

    Feels to me like momentum (small m) is gathering for a May election.

    We may all have to laud @MoonRabbit.

    I really don't see how you are getting that. A May election at the moment is asking the turkeys to not only vote for an early Christmas but to lie on the cutting board with their gizzards stretched.
    I was planning on lamb, actually.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,687

    Completely off topic, but fun: "DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK, Calif. — If it weren’t for all the floating, the paddling, the sloshing around, the lake smack in the middle of this desert might be mistaken for a mirage.

    This is the driest place in America, a place famous for sweltering 120-degree summers, a place whose very name suggests inhospitableness. It is perhaps the last corner of the continent one might expect to stumble upon miles of water.

    But Lake Manly is no illusion. Instead, it’s more like a ghost from Death Valley’s prehistoric past, temporarily resurrected by the fast-changing, climate-churning present."
    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2024/03/01/death-valley-lake-california-rain/

    (Business tip: If you know this lake is about to appear again, stock up on kayaks.)

    Interesting. Here's a non-paywalled article on Lake Manly: https://www.nps.gov/deva/learn/news/lake-manly.htm
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,021

    Foxy said:

    The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.

    Utterly barking.

    I am not an Anglican, so it's no skin off my nose, but it isn't a daft report.

    The plan is for a billion pound fund aimed at Africa and the African diaspora, and invested in a way that is sympathetic rather than antagonistic to African culture. It is explicitly evangelical and Christian in aim.

    The future of the worldwide Anglican community is increasingly in the young African diaspora, with congregations here rather pale and elderly. It is an astute business decision to redirect in that way.

    Welcome to the African Century.
    Then, call it a business investment plan to strengthen relations. We've neglected our friends for too long etc..

    Naming it "reparations" just pisses people off and opens up a wholly toxic can of worms.
    It is also utterly outrageous when parishes are being merged and paid stipendiary priests being cut in England. It is the Church of England now not the Church of Africa and even most black British Anglicans would prefer the funds to be spent in Parish ministry here.

    I expect Reverend Marcus Walker will raise a huge row at Synod over this in his role as head of Save the Parish
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,631

    Nigelb said:

    ...

    I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.

    Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.

    Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.

    I am not aware of a big rise in the comparative value of Sterling taking place in the late 90s to 2010s.
    2000 to 2008 saw a large revaluation of sterling - from around $1.40 to $2.00.
    Then downhill.
    Great for those who wanted a holiday in the USA.

    Not so great for those who wanted to export to the USA.

    The UK's balance of payments went from a deficit of £3bn in 1998 to a deficit of £62bn in 2008.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/hbop/pnbp
    I hope you’re not mistaking me for a defender of the Blair/Brown government ?
    I was simply correcting Luckyguy’s recall of exchange rates.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,647

    ohnotnow said:

    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.

    Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.

    Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.

    Swings and roundabouts.

    I remember GBPUSD at more than $2, and I remember it briefly touching $1.05 when I was a kid. There are times when your country is going through a cyclical upswing, and there are times when the reverse is true.

    That doesn't mean there aren't secular themes - like ageing populations - but over medium time frames, great things can look pretty shit, and shit things can look pretty great. And many of the policies, of course, that are most painful in the short-term are great for the long-term, and vice versa.

    What are the upside gamechangers for the U.K. ?
    (Genuine question.)

    I was thinking about S Korea’s difficulties, and wondered if they might be in a sweet spot where AI/automation bails them out of the demographic crisis.
    That would work particularly well for an economy highly engaged in manufacturing.

    What’s the upside case for us ?
    The problem of no-one in a large nation wanting any babies is the problem. It only has a more babies solution. Babies are an end in themselves, not a means to an end. AI may be jolly clever but is not an end in itself, and I rather doubt if it is better at making babies than the tried and tested method.

    10 MAKE_BABIES()
    20 GOTO 10
    Easy.

    (and before any pedants join in - I do know that's not how BASIC works)
    That would create an infinity loop.

    Unless I was a Haredi Jew I'd probably want a breakclause: 15 IF BABIES() =>3 THEN END

    God, I love BASIC.
    For the authentic 1980s BASIC experience it should be

    10 PRINT "I AM SKILL"
    20 GOTO 10
    Skill. I completely forgot that one. Not a million miles from Slay actually.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,682
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.

    Utterly barking.

    I am not an Anglican, so it's no skin off my nose, but it isn't a daft report.

    The plan is for a billion pound fund aimed at Africa and the African diaspora, and invested in a way that is sympathetic rather than antagonistic to African culture. It is explicitly evangelical and Christian in aim.

    The future of the worldwide Anglican community is increasingly in the young African diaspora, with congregations here rather pale and elderly. It is an astute business decision to redirect in that way.

    Welcome to the African Century.
    Then, call it a business investment plan to strengthen relations. We've neglected our friends for too long etc..

    Naming it "reparations" just pisses people off and opens up a wholly toxic can of worms.
    It is also utterly outrageous when parishes are being merged and paid stipendiary priests being cut in England. It is the Church of England now not the Church of Africa and even most black British Anglicans would prefer the funds to be spent in Parish ministry here.

    I expect Reverend Marcus Walker will raise a huge row at Synod over this in his role as head of Save the Parish
    It is an interesting debate. Is it a worldwide communion, or just an English one?

    As I am not an Anglican, I rightly don't get a say.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,631
    AlsoLei said:

    Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.

    Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.

    Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.

    Swings and roundabouts.

    I remember GBPUSD at more than $2, and I remember it briefly touching $1.05 when I was a kid. There are times when your country is going through a cyclical upswing, and there are times when the reverse is true.

    That doesn't mean there aren't secular themes - like ageing populations - but over medium time frames, great things can look pretty shit, and shit things can look pretty great. And many of the policies, of course, that are most painful in the short-term are great for the long-term, and vice versa.

    What are the upside gamechangers for the U.K. ?
    (Genuine question.)

    I was thinking about S Korea’s difficulties, and wondered if they might be in a sweet spot where AI/automation bails them out of the demographic crisis.
    That would work particularly well for an economy highly engaged in manufacturing.

    What’s the upside case for us ?
    The problem of no-one in a large nation wanting any babies is the problem. It only has a more babies solution. Babies are an end in themselves, not a means to an end. AI may be jolly clever but is not an end in itself, and I rather doubt if it is better at making babies than the tried and tested method.
    In Korea’s case it perhaps solves their looming economic problems, though.
    Manufacturing lends itself to automation.
    And AI lends itself to automating knowledge work...

    So, playing on Britain's strengths:
    * Pioneer the use of AI in our legal system - become the global venue of choice for cheaper, faster legal action
    * Extend / improve copyright to better protect the output of AI, at the expense of traditional media if necessary
    * Lower compliance costs for those who want to store and process large data sets
    * Get the FCA to approve and encourage AI finance products.

    (not entirely serious about all of these...)
    But in our case, wiping out employment in the sectors where we don’t need to do so - and doing nothing for the service sectors (health & social care) where we could do with some help in that respect.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,021
    kle4 said:

    The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.

    Utterly barking.

    The CoE is essentially staffed by self-flaggelating Corbynites.

    However, in such a system, it's very difficult to make an opposing argument without being ostracised: I'm trying to do it at the moment on a "sustainability committee" for a major organisation that has loud, voluble and rather dominant people who want to advocate for banning private car ownership and enforce vegan-only diets at all events.
    I just think it’s batshit that a group that by definition is dedicated to observing and promoting a certain belief should decide that it’s something to apologise for).
    Or perhaps that's precisely why they should?

    If you accept their actions were wrong, and those wrong actions were central to their operations, then shouldn't they apologise and reform?
    But surely that summary suggests even the goal of converting people is wrong, not simply that their actions in pursuit of the goal was wrong? And if they think converting people to Christianity is wrong, what should they be doing instead? Or are they saying Africans should not have become Christians?

    I feel like I will need to read the report as surely they found a way of saying the way they went about it was wrong rather than that converting Africans was bad.
    Indeed the report is wokeist crap
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001

    Two possibly relevant facts about South Korean fertility rates: First, some wealthy South Koreans are still sending expectant mothers to the US, so that their babies can be American citizens. (The practice has drawn criticism in both nations.)

    Second, East Asian women's fertility rates in the US are about the same as non-Hispanic whites, about 1.5 as I recall. As far as I know that is at least as true for Korean-Americans, as for other East Asians.)

    What I conclude, tentatively, from these facts is that some South Korean women don't want to have babies in a nation living next to Kim's North Korea. (One check on this would be to see if the fertility rate began to fall after the failure of an earlier government's "sunshine policy".)

    Fertility rates are a disaster in Japan (1.4), Singapore (1.2), Hong Kong (1.2) and South Korea (1.1). They aren't much better in China or Russia (both 1.5).

    Source: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/total-fertility-rate/country-comparison/
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,384
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.

    Utterly barking.

    I am not an Anglican, so it's no skin off my nose, but it isn't a daft report.

    The plan is for a billion pound fund aimed at Africa and the African diaspora, and invested in a way that is sympathetic rather than antagonistic to African culture. It is explicitly evangelical and Christian in aim.

    The future of the worldwide Anglican community is increasingly in the young African diaspora, with congregations here rather pale and elderly. It is an astute business decision to redirect in that way.

    Welcome to the African Century.
    Then, call it a business investment plan to strengthen relations. We've neglected our friends for too long etc..

    Naming it "reparations" just pisses people off and opens up a wholly toxic can of worms.
    It is also utterly outrageous when parishes are being merged and paid stipendiary priests being cut in England. It is the Church of England now not the Church of Africa and even most black British Anglicans would prefer the funds to be spent in Parish ministry here.

    I expect Reverend Marcus Walker will raise a huge row at Synod over this in his role as head of Save the Parish
    They probably think such parishes need to be decolonised.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,478
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.

    Utterly barking.

    I am not an Anglican, so it's no skin off my nose, but it isn't a daft report.

    The plan is for a billion pound fund aimed at Africa and the African diaspora, and invested in a way that is sympathetic rather than antagonistic to African culture. It is explicitly evangelical and Christian in aim.

    The future of the worldwide Anglican community is increasingly in the young African diaspora, with congregations here rather pale and elderly. It is an astute business decision to redirect in that way.

    Welcome to the African Century.
    Then, call it a business investment plan to strengthen relations. We've neglected our friends for too long etc..

    Naming it "reparations" just pisses people off and opens up a wholly toxic can of worms.
    It is also utterly outrageous when parishes are being merged and paid stipendiary priests being cut in England. It is the Church of England now not the Church of Africa and even most black British Anglicans would prefer the funds to be spent in Parish ministry here.

    I expect Reverend Marcus Walker will raise a huge row at Synod over this in his role as head of Save the Parish
    Capital account vs. Revenue account.

    Why have Conservatives stopped understanding the difference?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,682
    rcs1000 said:

    Two possibly relevant facts about South Korean fertility rates: First, some wealthy South Koreans are still sending expectant mothers to the US, so that their babies can be American citizens. (The practice has drawn criticism in both nations.)

    Second, East Asian women's fertility rates in the US are about the same as non-Hispanic whites, about 1.5 as I recall. As far as I know that is at least as true for Korean-Americans, as for other East Asians.)

    What I conclude, tentatively, from these facts is that some South Korean women don't want to have babies in a nation living next to Kim's North Korea. (One check on this would be to see if the fertility rate began to fall after the failure of an earlier government's "sunshine policy".)

    Fertility rates are a disaster in Japan (1.4), Singapore (1.2), Hong Kong (1.2) and South Korea (1.1). They aren't much better in China or Russia (both 1.5).

    Source: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/total-fertility-rate/country-comparison/
    Or Taiwan.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,631

    Nigelb said:

    Some curious metadata from the Supreme Court minority opinion.
    https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1764720374107767190

    Seems to have started out as a dissent.

    I personally think that the unanimous judgment on this bodes rather ill for Trump on immunity.

    Reading between the lines, liberal justices aren't being too partisan on this - they have grumbles but ultimately it's unanimous on the central issue - and there may well be an expectation that at least four and potentially all six conservative justices won't be too partisan on immunity.
    To my mind the immunity case isn’t even a question.
    I don’t really think they should even be hearing arguments: the partisan element is the delay inherent in doing so.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,308
    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    Feels to me like momentum (small m) is gathering for a May election.

    We may all have to laud @MoonRabbit.

    I really don't see how you are getting that. A May election at the moment is asking the turkeys to not only vote for an early Christmas but to lie on the cutting board with their gizzards stretched.
    All turkeys die in December.

    Only a few die in May.

    The logic is simple, and obvious. Only somebody really dense, like Sunak maybe, can't see it...
    It may not be particularly obvious to those who think that they have got another 5 or 6 months to find post MP employment. Politics is a brutal game and a lot of pretty comfortably well off MPs with spouses as well paid employees and spectacular expenses covering the cost of a second home are going to feel the pinch in a serious way. Even if you believe it is not going to get better why bring it forward?
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,977
    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    Feels to me like momentum (small m) is gathering for a May election.

    We may all have to laud @MoonRabbit.

    I really don't see how you are getting that. A May election at the moment is asking the turkeys to not only vote for an early Christmas but to lie on the cutting board with their gizzards stretched.
    All turkeys die in December.

    Only a few die in May.

    The logic is simple, and obvious. Only somebody really dense, like Sunak maybe, can't see it...
    It may not be particularly obvious to those who think that they have got another 5 or 6 months to find post MP employment. Politics is a brutal game and a lot of pretty comfortably well off MPs with spouses as well paid employees and spectacular expenses covering the cost of a second home are going to feel the pinch in a serious way. Even if you believe it is not going to get better why bring it forward?
    In May not all of them will need to find new jobs
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,021

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.

    Utterly barking.

    I am not an Anglican, so it's no skin off my nose, but it isn't a daft report.

    The plan is for a billion pound fund aimed at Africa and the African diaspora, and invested in a way that is sympathetic rather than antagonistic to African culture. It is explicitly evangelical and Christian in aim.

    The future of the worldwide Anglican community is increasingly in the young African diaspora, with congregations here rather pale and elderly. It is an astute business decision to redirect in that way.

    Welcome to the African Century.
    Then, call it a business investment plan to strengthen relations. We've neglected our friends for too long etc..

    Naming it "reparations" just pisses people off and opens up a wholly toxic can of worms.
    It is also utterly outrageous when parishes are being merged and paid stipendiary priests being cut in England. It is the Church of England now not the Church of Africa and even most black British Anglicans would prefer the funds to be spent in Parish ministry here.

    I expect Reverend Marcus Walker will raise a huge row at Synod over this in his role as head of Save the Parish
    They probably think such parishes need to be decolonised.
    The problem with the C of E is most of the Bishops and Deans and Archdeacons and administrators at Church House are now Labour voters but most of the congregation of their churches are Telegraph and Mail reading Conservatives.

    There is only so much more woke rubbish and wasting of funds the latter will take from the former before they openly revolt!
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,801
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.

    Utterly barking.

    I am not an Anglican, so it's no skin off my nose, but it isn't a daft report.

    The plan is for a billion pound fund aimed at Africa and the African diaspora, and invested in a way that is sympathetic rather than antagonistic to African culture. It is explicitly evangelical and Christian in aim.

    The future of the worldwide Anglican community is increasingly in the young African diaspora, with congregations here rather pale and elderly. It is an astute business decision to redirect in that way.

    Welcome to the African Century.
    Then, call it a business investment plan to strengthen relations. We've neglected our friends for too long etc..

    Naming it "reparations" just pisses people off and opens up a wholly toxic can of worms.
    It is also utterly outrageous when parishes are being merged and paid stipendiary priests being cut in England. It is the Church of England now not the Church of Africa and even most black British Anglicans would prefer the funds to be spent in Parish ministry here.

    I expect Reverend Marcus Walker will raise a huge row at Synod over this in his role as head of Save the Parish
    They probably think such parishes need to be decolonised.
    The problem with the C of E is most of the Bishops and Deans and Archdeacons and administrators at Church House are now Labour voters but most of the congregation of their churches are Telegraph and Mail reading Conservatives.

    There is only so much more woke rubbish and wasting of funds the latter will take from the former before they openly revolt!
    Well, they will just have to obey their lawful superiors under KCIII or go and join something else.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,977
    With the Conservatives stubbornly languishing 20 points behind Labour in the polls it might, as they said in Yes Minister, seem brave for Rishi Sunak to be contemplating calling an early general election.

    While October had been largely assumed to be the date in question, nevertheless there are persistent rumours around Westminster that an election on May 2 cannot be entirely ruled out. So what are the factors that will influence Sunak’s decision?


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/will-rishi-sunak-call-general-election-may-2024-w92d2phkc
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,726
    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    Feels to me like momentum (small m) is gathering for a May election.

    We may all have to laud @MoonRabbit.

    I really don't see how you are getting that. A May election at the moment is asking the turkeys to not only vote for an early Christmas but to lie on the cutting board with their gizzards stretched.
    All turkeys die in December.

    Only a few die in May.

    The logic is simple, and obvious. Only somebody really dense, like Sunak maybe, can't see it...
    It may not be particularly obvious to those who think that they have got another 5 or 6 months to find post MP employment. Politics is a brutal game and a lot of pretty comfortably well off MPs with spouses as well paid employees and spectacular expenses covering the cost of a second home are going to feel the pinch in a serious way. Even if you believe it is not going to get better why bring it forward?
    In May not all of them will need to find new jobs
    The difference in the number of MPs who will lose their jobs in May and October is about zero.

    They're going to get destroyed either way.
  • Options
    If the rural C of E congregations I know are representative then Conservative Party supporters ceased to be a majority quite a while ago.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,021
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.

    Utterly barking.

    I am not an Anglican, so it's no skin off my nose, but it isn't a daft report.

    The plan is for a billion pound fund aimed at Africa and the African diaspora, and invested in a way that is sympathetic rather than antagonistic to African culture. It is explicitly evangelical and Christian in aim.

    The future of the worldwide Anglican community is increasingly in the young African diaspora, with congregations here rather pale and elderly. It is an astute business decision to redirect in that way.

    Welcome to the African Century.
    Then, call it a business investment plan to strengthen relations. We've neglected our friends for too long etc..

    Naming it "reparations" just pisses people off and opens up a wholly toxic can of worms.
    It is also utterly outrageous when parishes are being merged and paid stipendiary priests being cut in England. It is the Church of England now not the Church of Africa and even most black British Anglicans would prefer the funds to be spent in Parish ministry here.

    I expect Reverend Marcus Walker will raise a huge row at Synod over this in his role as head of Save the Parish
    It is an interesting debate. Is it a worldwide communion, or just an English one?

    As I am not an Anglican, I rightly don't get a say.
    It is an English one primarily, the Church of England was founded in the 16th century but the Anglican communion only in the 19th century. The Archbishop of Canterbury is leader of the Church of England but only symbolic first amongst equals of the Anglican communion.

    The Roman Catholic church is a global communion where what the Pope and Vatican say applies worldwide. The Anglican communion isn't really
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,631
    rcs1000 said:

    Two possibly relevant facts about South Korean fertility rates: First, some wealthy South Koreans are still sending expectant mothers to the US, so that their babies can be American citizens. (The practice has drawn criticism in both nations.)

    Second, East Asian women's fertility rates in the US are about the same as non-Hispanic whites, about 1.5 as I recall. As far as I know that is at least as true for Korean-Americans, as for other East Asians.)

    What I conclude, tentatively, from these facts is that some South Korean women don't want to have babies in a nation living next to Kim's North Korea. (One check on this would be to see if the fertility rate began to fall after the failure of an earlier government's "sunshine policy".)

    Fertility rates are a disaster in Japan (1.4), Singapore (1.2), Hong Kong (1.2) and South Korea (1.1). They aren't much better in China or Russia (both 1.5).

    Source: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/total-fertility-rate/country-comparison/
    Out of date.
    The last twelve month figure is 0.7 for S Korea.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,801
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.

    Utterly barking.

    I am not an Anglican, so it's no skin off my nose, but it isn't a daft report.

    The plan is for a billion pound fund aimed at Africa and the African diaspora, and invested in a way that is sympathetic rather than antagonistic to African culture. It is explicitly evangelical and Christian in aim.

    The future of the worldwide Anglican community is increasingly in the young African diaspora, with congregations here rather pale and elderly. It is an astute business decision to redirect in that way.

    Welcome to the African Century.
    Then, call it a business investment plan to strengthen relations. We've neglected our friends for too long etc..

    Naming it "reparations" just pisses people off and opens up a wholly toxic can of worms.
    It is also utterly outrageous when parishes are being merged and paid stipendiary priests being cut in England. It is the Church of England now not the Church of Africa and even most black British Anglicans would prefer the funds to be spent in Parish ministry here.

    I expect Reverend Marcus Walker will raise a huge row at Synod over this in his role as head of Save the Parish
    It is an interesting debate. Is it a worldwide communion, or just an English one?

    As I am not an Anglican, I rightly don't get a say.
    It is an English one primarily, the Church of England was founded in the 16th century but the Anglican communion only in the 19th century. The Archbishop of Canterbury is leader of the Church of England but only symbolic first amongst equals of the Anglican communion.

    The Roman Catholic church is a global communion where what the Pope and Vatican say applies worldwide. The Anglican communion isn't really
    You've been telling us for years that the C of E is supreme within the Anglican Communion - senior for instance to the Episcopal Church of Scotland. Now ...
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,021

    If the rural C of E congregations I know are representative then Conservative Party supporters ceased to be a majority quite a while ago.

    That certainly isn't true in my rural C of E Parishes, 80% of the congregation are still Tories even now
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,977

    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    Feels to me like momentum (small m) is gathering for a May election.

    We may all have to laud @MoonRabbit.

    I really don't see how you are getting that. A May election at the moment is asking the turkeys to not only vote for an early Christmas but to lie on the cutting board with their gizzards stretched.
    All turkeys die in December.

    Only a few die in May.

    The logic is simple, and obvious. Only somebody really dense, like Sunak maybe, can't see it...
    It may not be particularly obvious to those who think that they have got another 5 or 6 months to find post MP employment. Politics is a brutal game and a lot of pretty comfortably well off MPs with spouses as well paid employees and spectacular expenses covering the cost of a second home are going to feel the pinch in a serious way. Even if you believe it is not going to get better why bring it forward?
    In May not all of them will need to find new jobs
    The difference in the number of MPs who will lose their jobs in May and October is about zero.

    They're going to get destroyed either way.
    Yep.
    I'm not sure where this almost PB consensus arises from?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,308
    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    Feels to me like momentum (small m) is gathering for a May election.

    We may all have to laud @MoonRabbit.

    I really don't see how you are getting that. A May election at the moment is asking the turkeys to not only vote for an early Christmas but to lie on the cutting board with their gizzards stretched.
    All turkeys die in December.

    Only a few die in May.

    The logic is simple, and obvious. Only somebody really dense, like Sunak maybe, can't see it...
    It may not be particularly obvious to those who think that they have got another 5 or 6 months to find post MP employment. Politics is a brutal game and a lot of pretty comfortably well off MPs with spouses as well paid employees and spectacular expenses covering the cost of a second home are going to feel the pinch in a serious way. Even if you believe it is not going to get better why bring it forward?
    In May not all of them will need to find new jobs
    On current polling anyone with less than about 12k of a majority is going to be taking more than a casual look at the situations vacant columns.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,857
    I have no issue with Anglicanism being an increasingly African communion. I assume that Anglicans wish to continue to proselytise, and indeed Africa is increasingly where global population growth is centred.

    I just think it’s daft to apologise for promoting your own religion, that’s the bloody point, isn’t it? By definition, if you believe in Anglicanism, you must also believe that other religions or belief systems are somehow misguided or at least open to further enlightenment.

    I guess that’s just an unfashionable view now, if not downright racist.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,308
    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    Feels to me like momentum (small m) is gathering for a May election.

    We may all have to laud @MoonRabbit.

    I really don't see how you are getting that. A May election at the moment is asking the turkeys to not only vote for an early Christmas but to lie on the cutting board with their gizzards stretched.
    All turkeys die in December.

    Only a few die in May.

    The logic is simple, and obvious. Only somebody really dense, like Sunak maybe, can't see it...
    It may not be particularly obvious to those who think that they have got another 5 or 6 months to find post MP employment. Politics is a brutal game and a lot of pretty comfortably well off MPs with spouses as well paid employees and spectacular expenses covering the cost of a second home are going to feel the pinch in a serious way. Even if you believe it is not going to get better why bring it forward?
    In May not all of them will need to find new jobs
    The difference in the number of MPs who will lose their jobs in May and October is about zero.

    They're going to get destroyed either way.
    Yep.
    I'm not sure where this almost PB consensus arises from?
    I'm suspicious that those who guessed a certain way in the January competition are talking their book!
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,726

    I have no issue with Anglicanism being an increasingly African communion. I assume that Anglicans wish to continue to proselytise, and indeed Africa is increasingly where global population growth is centred.

    I just think it’s daft to apologise for promoting your own religion, that’s the bloody point, isn’t it? By definition, if you believe in Anglicanism, you must also believe that other religions or belief systems are somehow misguided or at least open to further enlightenment.

    I guess that’s just an unfashionable view now, if not downright racist.

    "seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems" ≠ "promoting your own religion"
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,216
    ...

    .

    Nigelb said:

    ...

    I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.

    Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.

    Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.

    I am not aware of a big rise in the comparative value of Sterling taking place in the late 90s to 2010s.
    2000 to 2008 saw a large revaluation of sterling - from around $1.40 to $2.00.
    Then downhill.
    Great for those who wanted a holiday in the USA.

    Not so great for those who wanted to export to the USA.

    The UK's balance of payments went from a deficit of £3bn in 1998 to a deficit of £62bn in 2008.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/hbop/pnbp
    I see the fact New Labour were bequeathed a golden economy legacy (almost ideal, in fact) isn't getting much of a mention on here tonight.
    Will you be making the same claim in 10-20 years time about this election?
    Indeed, the economic legacy gets shinier by the year.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,021

    If the rural C of E congregations I know are representative then Conservative Party supporters ceased to be a majority quite a while ago.

    The Conservatives had a 23% lead over Labour amongst Anglicans in 2019, only Jews had a higher percentage of Tories

    "Religion and Party Preference in 2019 |" http://www.brin.ac.uk/figures/religion-and-party-preference-in-2019/
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,631

    .

    Nigelb said:

    ...

    I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.

    Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.

    Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.

    I am not aware of a big rise in the comparative value of Sterling taking place in the late 90s to 2010s.
    2000 to 2008 saw a large revaluation of sterling - from around $1.40 to $2.00.
    Then downhill.
    Great for those who wanted a holiday in the USA.

    Not so great for those who wanted to export to the USA.

    The UK's balance of payments went from a deficit of £3bn in 1998 to a deficit of £62bn in 2008.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/hbop/pnbp
    I see the fact New Labour were bequeathed a golden economy legacy (almost ideal, in fact) isn't getting much of a mention on here tonight.
    Why would it ? It wasn’t what we were talking about.

    I wouldn’t argue with the ‘golden legacy’ analysis, though. The Conservatives’ longest lasting economic mistakes were made under Thatcher (along with her successes) and during the last decade and a half.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,021
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.

    Utterly barking.

    I am not an Anglican, so it's no skin off my nose, but it isn't a daft report.

    The plan is for a billion pound fund aimed at Africa and the African diaspora, and invested in a way that is sympathetic rather than antagonistic to African culture. It is explicitly evangelical and Christian in aim.

    The future of the worldwide Anglican community is increasingly in the young African diaspora, with congregations here rather pale and elderly. It is an astute business decision to redirect in that way.

    Welcome to the African Century.
    Then, call it a business investment plan to strengthen relations. We've neglected our friends for too long etc..

    Naming it "reparations" just pisses people off and opens up a wholly toxic can of worms.
    It is also utterly outrageous when parishes are being merged and paid stipendiary priests being cut in England. It is the Church of England now not the Church of Africa and even most black British Anglicans would prefer the funds to be spent in Parish ministry here.

    I expect Reverend Marcus Walker will raise a huge row at Synod over this in his role as head of Save the Parish
    It is an interesting debate. Is it a worldwide communion, or just an English one?

    As I am not an Anglican, I rightly don't get a say.
    It is an English one primarily, the Church of England was founded in the 16th century but the Anglican communion only in the 19th century. The Archbishop of Canterbury is leader of the Church of England but only symbolic first amongst equals of the Anglican communion.

    The Roman Catholic church is a global communion where what the Pope and Vatican say applies worldwide. The Anglican communion isn't really
    You've been telling us for years that the C of E is supreme within the Anglican Communion - senior for instance to the Episcopal Church of Scotland. Now ...
    On the basis Welby is first amongst equals yes but I would never pretend he has anywhere near the powers over the Anglican communion the Pope has over the Roman Catholic church globally
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,857
    edited March 4

    I have no issue with Anglicanism being an increasingly African communion. I assume that Anglicans wish to continue to proselytise, and indeed Africa is increasingly where global population growth is centred.

    I just think it’s daft to apologise for promoting your own religion, that’s the bloody point, isn’t it? By definition, if you believe in Anglicanism, you must also believe that other religions or belief systems are somehow misguided or at least open to further enlightenment.

    I guess that’s just an unfashionable view now, if not downright racist.

    "seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems" ≠ "promoting your own religion"
    Funnily enough you’d probably make a very good monomaniacal 19th century missionary.
  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    rcs1000 said:

    I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.

    Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.

    Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.

    Swings and roundabouts.

    I remember GBPUSD at more than $2, and I remember it briefly touching $1.05 when I was a kid. There are times when your country is going through a cyclical upswing, and there are times when the reverse is true.

    That doesn't mean there aren't secular themes - like ageing populations - but over medium time frames, great things can look pretty shit, and shit things can look pretty great. And many of the policies, of course, that are most painful in the short-term are great for the long-term, and vice versa.

    It's economically illiterate to fixate on the £/$ exchange rate because that tells you as much about the US economy as the British. It's the trade weighted sterling exchange rate that matters, insofar as the exchange rate does at all.
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    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,726

    I have no issue with Anglicanism being an increasingly African communion. I assume that Anglicans wish to continue to proselytise, and indeed Africa is increasingly where global population growth is centred.

    I just think it’s daft to apologise for promoting your own religion, that’s the bloody point, isn’t it? By definition, if you believe in Anglicanism, you must also believe that other religions or belief systems are somehow misguided or at least open to further enlightenment.

    I guess that’s just an unfashionable view now, if not downright racist.

    "seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems" ≠ "promoting your own religion"
    Funnily enough you’d probably make a very good monomaniacal 19th century overseas evangelist.
    Perhaps, but I'm right, aren't I?

    There's a difference between seeking to promote your own views (and if others wither and die, then so be it) and going out of your way to destroy others systems so there's no competition to your own.

    The Church in its history has done a lot of the latter and it is absolutely a black mark in their history they bloody well should apologise for.
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,653
    Nigelb said:

    As far as I know “State’s Rights” began and largely maintains as an argument for States to ignore progressive federal legislation, especially around race.

    That’s not to say there’s no merit in it though.
    Brits tend to underestimate the tenacious belief of many Americans in liberty. I find the notion admirable, if many of the effects baleful.

    It might be admirable, if it were ever applied as a principle rather than a political tactic. to be discarded at will.
    US conservatives have rarely shown any interest at all in states' rights when they wish to implement illiberal federal legislation.
    The SC have overruled the rights of Blue states to have stricter gun control.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,021
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.

    Utterly barking.

    I am not an Anglican, so it's no skin off my nose, but it isn't a daft report.

    The plan is for a billion pound fund aimed at Africa and the African diaspora, and invested in a way that is sympathetic rather than antagonistic to African culture. It is explicitly evangelical and Christian in aim.

    The future of the worldwide Anglican community is increasingly in the young African diaspora, with congregations here rather pale and elderly. It is an astute business decision to redirect in that way.

    Welcome to the African Century.
    Then, call it a business investment plan to strengthen relations. We've neglected our friends for too long etc..

    Naming it "reparations" just pisses people off and opens up a wholly toxic can of worms.
    It is also utterly outrageous when parishes are being merged and paid stipendiary priests being cut in England. It is the Church of England now not the Church of Africa and even most black British Anglicans would prefer the funds to be spent in Parish ministry here.

    I expect Reverend Marcus Walker will raise a huge row at Synod over this in his role as head of Save the Parish
    They probably think such parishes need to be decolonised.
    The problem with the C of E is most of the Bishops and Deans and Archdeacons and administrators at Church House are now Labour voters but most of the congregation of their churches are Telegraph and Mail reading Conservatives.

    There is only so much more woke rubbish and wasting of funds the latter will take from the former before they openly revolt!
    Well, they will just have to obey their lawful superiors under KCIII or go and join something else.
    They can revolt via the House of Laity in Synod for starters which has the same voteshare as the House of Bishops
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    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,771
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.

    Utterly barking.

    I am not an Anglican, so it's no skin off my nose, but it isn't a daft report.

    The plan is for a billion pound fund aimed at Africa and the African diaspora, and invested in a way that is sympathetic rather than antagonistic to African culture. It is explicitly evangelical and Christian in aim.

    The future of the worldwide Anglican community is increasingly in the young African diaspora, with congregations here rather pale and elderly. It is an astute business decision to redirect in that way.

    Welcome to the African Century.
    Then, call it a business investment plan to strengthen relations. We've neglected our friends for too long etc..

    Naming it "reparations" just pisses people off and opens up a wholly toxic can of worms.
    It is also utterly outrageous when parishes are being merged and paid stipendiary priests being cut in England. It is the Church of England now not the Church of Africa and even most black British Anglicans would prefer the funds to be spent in Parish ministry here.

    I expect Reverend Marcus Walker will raise a huge row at Synod over this in his role as head of Save the Parish
    It is an interesting debate. Is it a worldwide communion, or just an English one?

    As I am not an Anglican, I rightly don't get a say.
    It is an English one primarily, the Church of England was founded in the 16th century but the Anglican communion only in the 19th century. The Archbishop of Canterbury is leader of the Church of England but only symbolic first amongst equals of the Anglican communion.

    The Roman Catholic church is a global communion where what the Pope and Vatican say applies worldwide. The Anglican communion isn't really
    Isn't the King leader of the Church of England?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,631
    Biden campaign on Trump’s Supreme Court ruling: ‘We don’t really care’
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4507211-biden-campaign-on-trumps-supreme-court-ruling-we-dont-really-care/
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,257
    Ruling Nottingham Labour councillors reluctantly pass massive budget cuts after Section 51.

    Some in tears.

    How many other councils heading this way in next year or two?
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,801
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.

    Utterly barking.

    I am not an Anglican, so it's no skin off my nose, but it isn't a daft report.

    The plan is for a billion pound fund aimed at Africa and the African diaspora, and invested in a way that is sympathetic rather than antagonistic to African culture. It is explicitly evangelical and Christian in aim.

    The future of the worldwide Anglican community is increasingly in the young African diaspora, with congregations here rather pale and elderly. It is an astute business decision to redirect in that way.

    Welcome to the African Century.
    Then, call it a business investment plan to strengthen relations. We've neglected our friends for too long etc..

    Naming it "reparations" just pisses people off and opens up a wholly toxic can of worms.
    It is also utterly outrageous when parishes are being merged and paid stipendiary priests being cut in England. It is the Church of England now not the Church of Africa and even most black British Anglicans would prefer the funds to be spent in Parish ministry here.

    I expect Reverend Marcus Walker will raise a huge row at Synod over this in his role as head of Save the Parish
    They probably think such parishes need to be decolonised.
    The problem with the C of E is most of the Bishops and Deans and Archdeacons and administrators at Church House are now Labour voters but most of the congregation of their churches are Telegraph and Mail reading Conservatives.

    There is only so much more woke rubbish and wasting of funds the latter will take from the former before they openly revolt!
    Well, they will just have to obey their lawful superiors under KCIII or go and join something else.
    They can revolt via the House of Laity in Synod for starters which has the same voteshare as the House of Bishops
    But what's the point of a fixed hierarchy of religious teachers if you can disobey it when it;s politically convenient?
This discussion has been closed.